المنشور

The market reacted to NFP, but I think traders should be careful about turning one data point into a full bearish thesis. 162K jobs came in stronger than expected, unemployment remained at 4.1%, and September rate-hike expectations strengthened. That explains why $BTC and $ETH came under pressure. But the important question isn't what happened today. It’s whether the macro pressure can actually break the structure. Next week gives us the answer. PPI and CPI will be much more important for determining whether inflation is cooling or remaining sticky. Then the FOMC adds another layer to the rate outlook. If inflation stays hot, Treasury yields continue higher, and financial conditions tighten, BTC could revisit $78.6K. ETH could also come under pressure around $2,428, with $2,400 becoming the bigger level to defend. But if CPI surprises to the downside, the entire narrative can change quickly. Rate-cut expectations could return, yields could ease, and today's NFP-driven weakness could turn into nothing more than a temporary shakeout. That's why I don't want to chase either direction right now. Early next week could remain messy. The cleaner signal comes when the market reacts to CPI. For me, the key levels are simple: $BTC → $78.6K $ETH → $2.4K Lose them decisively, and the bearish case becomes stronger. Hold them, and there is still room for the market to recover. Sometimes the best trade is simply waiting for the market to reveal which narrative is actually winning. No need to predict everything in advance.