#BOJHikeOddsRise

Markets are now pricing roughly 80% odds of a BOJ hike on Sept 18, with Ueda flagging upside price risks and the yen parked near 160. This matters well beyond Japan: a real BOJ tightening cycle pressures the yen-funded carry trade that quietly backstops a lot of global risk. If Tokyo moves and signals more into January, the repricing will not stay local. DYOR as always. #BOJHikeOddsRise

Yen intervention: what history tells us when USD/JPY returns to the danger zone USD/JPY comes off the ¥160 region again after fresh intervention. History offers clues on what could happen next as Japan steps up efforts to support the yen.

Yen is now trading right back at the levels that triggered the 2024 carry unwind, putting the market on familiar—and increasingly fragile—ground

FREDDIE MAC SAYS THE U.S. 30-YEAR FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE AVERAGED 6.71% IN THE WEEK OF SEPT. 3, ITS HIGHEST SINCE JULY 2025, VERSUS 6.66% THE PRIOR WEEK

The Japanese Yen is broken. Intervention to support the Yen has become a near-monthly occurrence, with the US now even stepping in to help stabilize the currency. In the analysis below, we break down every major Yen intervention of 2026 so far. Japan is a preview of what will happen to the US if we do not control deficit spending and inflation immediately. No healthy market sees regular "intervention."

🚨 BOJ IS GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSER TO UNWINDING THE YEN CARRY TRADE In the last 24 hours, USD/JPY has dropped almost 2.5%, which doesn't happen without any major intervention. On top of that, BOJ is most likely expected to hike rates this month, with more rate hikes possible in Q4. This is the exact thing that happened in Q3 2024, when BOJ intervened and hiked rates together. The result was a $5 Trillion wipe out from the global markets, and the VIX spiked to its highest level since the Covid crash.

USDJPY risk reversals are at ytd lows (put demand) but the butterfly still well below prior peaks… traders finally giving up on the USDJPY 165-170 story i guess

Some notable market moves today, seems driven primarily by Yen strength / dollar weakness as we inch closer to a BOJ hike. I'm not making too much of it, but PMIs today were interesting. S&P Services and Composite a whisker shy of expectations. ISM Services beat, but prices paid marching to almost breathless new highs (alongside new orders), meanwhile employment missed and stays weak below 50. Oil creeping towards 100 and not helping anyone anywhere with anything. Funky times.

Japan's long end moves first. Everything else follows. @peruvian_bull in May on the January auction that broke: 30 and 40 year JGB yields jumping 30 to 40 basis points in hours, US Treasuries following within the day, and a government whose spending plans had just been locked in by an election. Full conversation on TFTC, episode 747.

This week’s abrupt strengthening of the yen versus the dollar highlights the growing risk of policy makers stepping in markets.