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$ETH really softens up as soon as the weekend hits
ETH stuck at 2495, neither up nor down, trading volume shrinks to almost nothing.
This is a typical weekend liquidity crisis. US stock market is closed, institutions are all on holiday, retail investors are just watching and waiting for the CPI on the 14th.
Looking at the chart, 2400 is a solid bottom, 2500 is a solid ceiling, and the manipulative traders are scraping back and forth within this 100-dollar range.
News says Unichain is migrating to OP Enterprise, fundamentals are good, but on weekends there’s no capital to buy in.
This is the time to hold tight, absolutely don’t open new positions, the fees alone can wear you down.
Hold your spot assets, close your software, eat and drink as you should.
Wait for next week’s macro data to come out, the market will naturally give direction.
It’s soft now to be strong next week, control your hands and don’t become fuel.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The S&P 500 Telecommunication Services index fell 8.5% yesterday.
T-Mobile fell 12%, while Verizon and AT&T each fell 11%.
SpaceX bought a nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum portfolio and plans to launch Starlink Mobile, targeting existing carrier customers. Low band signals reach inside buildings, addressing a key gap in satellite service.
Carriers rely heavily on monthly phone plans, putting subscribers and pricing at risk.
The telecom index is down 16% over the last 30 days.Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal
The first wave of BTC's pullback has already played out, with the 80000–81000 range completing the probe. But the real test is just beginning: the second wave's second half is often more dragging and grinding, specifically targeting impatience.
82500 has flipped from old support to new resistance. If the rebound is weak, it remains a shorting opportunity; if it strongly recovers, don't rush to go long either—around 84000 is the next shorting zone. The downside view remains unchanged, still looking below 75000. During trend repair, rebounds offer entry points, not signals to chase longs.
Gold is different. The daily chart shows bullish divergence rising, increasing the probability of a short-term bottom. If confirmed mid-term, 5000 is not out of reach, with the time window to watch from after New Year's to before the Spring Festival. What needs to be done now is to wait for confirmation, not to jump the gun.
One is rebounding during repair, the other is building momentum amid divergence. Different directions, similar rhythm: patience is more valuable than chasing volatility.24小时内三只小市值代币同时拉出两位数涨幅，这背后是衍生品在悄悄加杠杆。 你有没有发现，这轮上涨的成交量结构有点不太对劲？ $MAGIC 冲到 0.15267，涨了 24.12%，24小时成交 1348 万美元。$MINA 跟涨 17.60%，报价 0.09287，成交 367 万。$WLD 也挤进涨幅榜，涨 10.07% 到 0.5584，成交 1203 万。三只都是小市值品种，涨幅集中在同一时间段，这种同步性不是散户情绪能解释的。 我翻了翻衍生品端的变化。MAGIC 的合约持仓量在价格启动前就有异动，资金费率从负转正，说明多头开始愿意付溢价拿仓位。MINA 的成交额相对市值偏高，但持仓量增幅比价格涨幅更陡，典型的杠杆推动型上涨。WLD 虽然涨幅最小，但它的合约基差走阔速度是三者里最快的，市场在给它定价更高的波动预期。 这意味着什么？市场在交易的不是基本面，而是小币合约端的轧空潜力。当现货深度不够深、合约持仓又快速堆积时，价格对买盘的敏感度会被成倍放大。MAGIC 的 0.16 关口之所以被反复提及，是因为那里挂着一批空头止损和突破买单，一旦触发会形成短时正反馈。 偏多的路径很清楚：Hyperliquid's prediction contracts have more issues but less trading volume. According to independent data site Outcome Tape's statistics as of October 7: from October 1 to 7, the observed trading volume was about $9.2 million, down 57.1% compared to the previous seven days; the number of issues with trades increased to 1,982, up 11.5%. All dates are calculated in UTC.
The HIP-4 here refers to contracts settled based on event outcomes. For example, "whether BTC will close above a certain price on a given day"—the buying and selling are on the result of this question. This is a different dataset from the perpetual contract trading commonly discussed.
During the same period, the average daily active trading addresses were about 725, down 15.7% from the previous seven days. Addresses do not equal the number of people, and trading volume is not new deposited funds. Despite the increase in the number of issues, the total trading volume decreased, indicating that trading participation did not expand together this week. We will observe if the next seven-day data can rebound.
This archive includes questions related to HYPE, BTC, and ETH prices, with only spot market quotes for these three assets provided below. The $9.2 million covers various prediction questions on the site, including sports and other categories, and is not the trading volume of the three coins alone.
Source: Outcome Tape archive and statistical notes, Hyperliquid official HIP-4 document; reviewed on October 10. The accompanying image is from the original data site page, with data up to October 7. Spot market observation: $HYPE $BTC $ETH $SOL A group of self-proclaimed investors who claim to transcend bull and bear markets say $SOL only deserves to stay below $20, which is a shortsighted way of thinking. Look at the actions Solana is taking:
Solana is integrating with Samsung device wallets; Samsung ships 240 million devices annually, with 82 million units just in the US. Officials say there are only 14 million stablecoin holders on the network, which will drive a 6-fold increase in stablecoin wallet visits on Solana. This is opening a traffic gateway for Solana.
At the same time, Solana is reducing block finalization time to 200ms, down from the previous 400ms. It must speed up; low fees and fast speed are essential as thousands of users are waiting for their payments to be processed.
Tokenized stocks on Solana surpassed 1 million holding wallets in September, with a trading volume of $4.4 billion.
September was a record-breaking month across multiple sectors including equity assets, stablecoins, proxy payments, and network speed. Closing counts BTC near $82,600, up about 0.5% in 24h ETH near $2,490 Fear and Greed Index 64 (October 10 Saturday quotes vary by a few hundred dollars, real-time prices prevail) Saturday's market was very calm, fluctuating only a few hundred dollars, like an old married couple, neither quarrelsome nor boring. But today is a special day. On October 10 last year, the entire network exploded with $19 billion overnight. Many still feel heartache recalling that night. The lesson from that night is basically one sentence: leverage is like a vow of eternal love in a relationship—when things go well, it’s an accelerator; when not, it mortgaged you and your house together. Those who were liquidated didn’t necessarily pick the wrong direction; many chose the right direction but didn’t survive until the right day. Looking at today’s environment, it’s actually not that easy. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly hit 5.7% this Monday, the highest since 2002. Yields above 5% make risky assets like a date sitting next to a stable, high-salary backup. It’s not that they don’t love you; it’s that the other party’s conditions are too good. BTC recently bottomed at $80,400, still over 30% below the $126,000 high. There is good news too: JPMorgan estimates about $50 billion of crypto inflows this year. The SEC’s token safe harbor proposal comment period ends later this month. Regulation is still ambiguous but seriously courting. However, anniversaries are not curses. History doesn’t repeat exactly but rhymes. Don’t scare yourself because of the date, nor bet recklessly because of it. Outlook for tomorrow: Weekend liquidity is thin, easily pierced by one or two large orders. Next week’s focus is on US Treasury yields andDon't celebrate yet: BTC's rebound still needs to break through 84000 and get a nod from CPI
First, let's look at the market: BTC spiked to 80400 then pulled back to 82600, the 4-hour MACD green bars are shrinking. 83500–84000 is the immediate hurdle; if it can't hold, don't rush to mistake the rebound for a reversal. ETH bounced from 2406 back to 2501, but it's clearly weaker than BTC, with resistance at 2579 and losing 2400 would look bad in the short term.
The news side hasn't fully warmed up either: FOMC minutes remain hawkish, and the Strait of Hormuz added fuel to oil prices, with a roughly 4% single-day rise pulling inflation back into view. The only relief is that the October rate hike bet dropped from 70% to 20%, so short-term sentiment is less tense.
So this move looks more like a breather after bad news temporarily dulls the market, not that the bears are out of steam. Light positions can follow along, but heavy bottom-fishing should wait; holding cash and flexibility before CPI is better than betting on direction now.
If BTC really breaks above 84000, would you see it as the start of a recovery, or wait for the CPI release to confirm? #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $SOL L/USDT is trying to recover after a sharp correction! Price is at $SOL 109.72, up +0.51% today, after dropping from $124.96 high to $105 low. It is still down -8.28% this week. Price is below MA5, MA10, and MA20, so short-term trend is weak. Volume is 444K SOL with $48.8M turnover. If SOL holds above $108.45 support, we could see a bounce to $113 - $117. If it breaks $SOL 108, next support is $105.$BTC position increase recovery, smart money long advantage narrows
According to the current market situation, $BTC spot is about $82,878, USDT perpetual is about $82,830. The latest completed 1-hour close is $82,813, above EMA20 at about $82,647, RSI about 56; the 4-hour close is still below EMA20 at about $83,016, with this resistance level above to watch first.
In the past 23 hours, the perpetual price rose about 0.4%, positions increased by 1.5% measured in BTC, exposure flowing back. The current 8-hour funding rate is about 0.0018%, longs are still paying; position increase alone cannot prove new long dominance.
OKX smart money shows 24 long and 23 short, with long amount accounting for 64.6%. Total positions increased compared to one day ago, but net long amount decreased, indicating short amount grew faster, so expansion of positions cannot be directly regarded as chasing longs.
At 17:00 this hour, 31 discussions: 35% bearish, 29% bullish. Odaily reported Bitdeer produced 300.6 BTC this week as of October 9 and sold all, which is a weekly selling record and does not represent new selling pressure at this moment.
In the next 4 hours, after the perpetual retraces to $82,620-$82,650, if the 1-hour closes back above $82,650 and then retraces and holds, only then consider light long; stop loss at $82,480, first target $83,010, the least favorable entry is about 2.1R (before cost). If it first closes below $82,500, cancel the long entry. #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？
Today let's talk about something that sounds a bit distant but is very relevant to our wallets.
Vitalik recently spoke out, saying that AI accelerating mathematical research might weaken some lattice-based cryptographic schemes. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake also warned that wallet security defenses need to be planned in advance. But don’t panic, no mainstream signature algorithm has been truly broken yet. Quantum computing mainly threatens the elliptic curve signatures used by BTC and ETH now, while AI could accelerate finding weaknesses in cryptographic algorithms. These two factors combined are why these big names are speaking up.
Countermeasures are already underway. The US NIST has released post-quantum cryptography standards, and the White House has launched a fault-tolerant quantum computing competition with up to $215 million in funding. Ethereum is pushing for quantum-resistant signatures and account migration, Coinbase is planning key management upgrades, and the Bitcoin community is discussing improvement proposals. But most of these are still in development and won’t be implemented tomorrow.
Here’s my take. Don’t be scared by the quantum threat; it’s not an immediate danger, but early preparation is real. This is just like when the internet upgraded from HTTP to HTTPS—sooner or later, it has to happen. Whoever completes it first will reap the next wave of trust dividends. Don’t chase hype; only real technological progress is valuable.
What do you think?
$BTC Another unlucky person appeared, $146,800 instantly wiped out
$ARKM On-chain data shows that a wallet had no issues for 8 years, but a month ago, after more than 4 years of inactivity, it switched to a new wallet.
Then, CryptoBilis Ledger Drainer stole all 59 $ETH from it, worth $146,800.
The most heartbreaking part of this story:
First, the old wallet was fine for 8 years. It was always safe, no problems.
Second, he switched to a new wallet. After more than 4 years of no activity, he probably thought it was time to update the device.
Third, the problem was with the new wallet. That tampered Ledger directly sent out the mnemonic phrase.
He did everything right except bought the wrong wallet.
8 years of security ruined by one new wallet.
If you bought a Ledger in the last 90 days, don’t use it yet. Brothers, the current market is still a recovery after a sharp drop, not a clear reversal.
BTC is currently around 82800, the strongest among the three, but there is continuous resistance between 83300—83500; ETH is stuck near 2500, never firmly above 2520; SOL is consolidating around 109.7, clearly weaker than BTC.
My opening position plan is straightforward:
$BTC
If it pulls back to 82400—82500 and stabilizes, you can lightly go long, stop loss at 81950, targets 83100, 83500.
If it rebounds and is clearly resisted at 83300—83500, you can short briefly, stop loss at 83850, targets 82800, 82300.
$ETH
If it pulls back and holds at 2475—2485, you can try going long, stop loss at 2448, targets 2515, 2540.
If it rebounds but fails to hold at 2510—2525, you can try shorting, stop loss at 2550, targets 2480, 2450.
$SOL
If it pulls back and stops falling at 108.5—109, you can try a small long position, stop loss at 107.4, targets 110.8, 112.
If it rebounds and faces pressure at 111.3—112, it’s more suitable to look for shorts, stop loss at 113, targets 109.5, 108.5.
Current prices are all in the middle of the range, I won’t chase orders directly.
In short: prioritize low longs on BTC, wait for ETH to show at 2500, SOL is weaker, shorting on rebounds has better cost performance.
Personal advice, not investment consideration
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $ETH Current bullish core logic for ETH:
1. Indicator reversal: 1-hour MACD golden cross below zero line, green bars increasing volume, short-term bearish momentum weakening.
2. Bottom support: Volume increased and stopped falling near 2405, current price stands above EMA9/21 (2492), bottom support effective.
3. Favorable risk-reward: Entry at 2494, stop loss 2% (2470), take profit 4.2% (2550), small investment for big gain, low trial-and-error cost.$USELESS
After countless internal struggles, finally, finally freed
Endured for so long, after mental battles with myself and friends. Closed the position, lost not much! Just one or two thousand u
Fortunately, unlike lab, the pump didn't hit the ceiling
Some laugh at me for being foolish, holding on for so long, why not hold one more day? At first, I thought so too, having held tens of thousands u, does one or two thousand u matter?
But they are all lying with their eyes open, the loss isn't theirs, and they don't watch the charts! Such a big waterfall drop, seeing the pullback, if you don't exit, aren't you stupid?
So, tonight must hit 0.18. After it hits, enter another short to lock in profits
Also freed myself from a position that weighed on me for two months! That feeling, every day was nerve-wracking!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$BTC $ETH Quantum computing has not yet posed a substantial threat to crypto assets, but has NEAR already made preparations?
NEAR is advancing account support for quantum-resistant ML-DSA signatures to guard against future cryptographic risks brought by quantum computing. Account signatures directly determine asset control; if the underlying cryptographic system is compromised, it affects more than just transaction speed.
However, supporting quantum-resistant signatures does not mean the entire blockchain has fully solved quantum security. The final outcome depends on the actual implementation effectiveness, while also balancing performance and usage costs.
Will quantum security become the core focus of the next round of public chain competition, or is it too early to hype this topic now? Everyone can share their thoughts.
$NEAR $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Small but certain happiness real trading started at $20
After a day of settling yesterday, the highest is currently $30
Now $26
$ETH has been fluctuating these two days
One of my accounts bought at an average price of 2440 and is still holding
$ZEC average price I bought at 1140 and am still holding
$BCH dropped from 310 to a low of 270
Slowly accumulating at low prices
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
Most of these news are useless
Firmly bullish
If just focusing on news could make money, wouldn't that be like picking up money?
A long way to go, slowly learning and improving $GRASS is really frustrating, I've been watching it all day with almost no movement, and the yield is stuck around 33%. I'm anxious to monitor the market but afraid to make any rash moves.
I originally thought it would continue to drop after a high-level consolidation, but it just stays sideways, neither up nor down, really testing patience. This position is indeed hard to predict, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth; acting rashly is likely to cause mistakes.
Since the direction hasn't emerged, I'll wait another two or three days. If there's still no movement, I'll take profits and exit, switching to another coin, since capital efficiency is the top priority.
Is anyone else watching $GRASS? Share your thoughts in the comments on this position—will it continue sideways or is it about to choose a direction? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #跟着OKX打卡2049 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $PI Network just showed up in the RWA Foundation’s directory of ~78 blockchains that can support real-world assets on-chain. That’s visibility and intent—not a live RWA product, not “Pi is becoming an RWA,” and not a near-term listing of tokenized assets. Nice directory mention, still mostly hype until actual assets and volume appear.
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch
#TokenizedStocks24/7 The rebound is not a trend reversal; there is an essential difference between the two. $BTC rose from 80350 to 82600, an increase of 2250. $ETH rebounded from 2405 to 2500, and $ZEC surged from 1111 to 1225 after touching that level. Current price analysis: The daily chart is still suppressed by the middle band, and the moving average system shows a bearish alignment. $ZEC's single-day increase reached 9%, but the momentum indicator dropped to -238. Order behavior analysis: The 9% increase is not driven by active buying but is a technical rebound after a sharp prior decline. Insufficient seller support caused the price to rise passively. This brief pause after a deep correction is fundamentally different from a trend reversal. Before the technical structure completes its transformation, a bullish candle only represents a short-term rebound. Entering at this time with a chase-high approach is likely to buy at a local peak. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH "1 Billion Liquidations Sweep Through, Long Positions Shattered to Pieces"
The liquidation storm just passed, over 90% of long positions were liquidated. Retail investors are still rushing in, but smart money has quietly withdrawn. Is this ETH rebound a real reversal or a bull trap?
US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high, with the 10-year breaking 5.35% and the 30-year surpassing 5.70%. Money is getting more expensive, and risk assets are becoming harder to hold.
$BTC fell below 81,000 last night, with $1.16 billion liquidated in 24 hours, of which $1 billion were long positions.
$ETH fared worse, breaking below 2,500, with $324 million liquidated—the worst in the entire market.
The retail long-to-short ratio is 2.12:1, still frantically bottom-fishing. Whales have started shorting while retail is still going long. This scene is all too familiar: the more excited retail gets, the harder the fall later.
My 2,671 short position, 100x leverage, is up 701% unrealized profit, and I’m holding. Because retail longs are too crowded, the 2,530-2,550 range above is dense resistance; any rebound is a shorting opportunity.
Strategy: Light short near current price around 2,484, stop loss above 2,530, target 2,426, add more on a break below to target 2,355. In this market, short positions are the trend-following play.
$SOL
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 "Weekly Review: Market Rises, Then Falls, Then Retraces"
This week, the market felt like a roller coaster ride. At the start, $BTC touched 86,000–87,000, $ETH reclaimed above 2700, and sentiment was briefly bullish. Midweek, the tone shifted abruptly: the Federal Reserve minutes were hawkish, US Treasury yields and oil prices strengthened, geopolitical tensions escalated, BTC was hammered down near 80,000, and ETH retreated to around 2500.
Liquidity also cooled. On October 8, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $487 million; around October 9, the entire market experienced roughly $1.19 billion in 24-hour liquidations, with longs suffering heavier losses—ETH liquidations were about $356 million. ZEC quickly dropped from a high of 1698 to near 1200, and the Zcash spot ETF recorded its first weekly net outflow since listing, about $93.56 million.
But the bears didn’t get comfortable for long. As geopolitical concerns eased, BTC bounced back near 82,000. Chasing longs or shorts can easily backfire. My takeaway: news only sets the stage; how price reacts determines the outcome; position sizing and timing matter more than guessing direction.
This is my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 The US suddenly introduced new regulatory rules for stablecoins 😮
NCUA proposed on October 9th to add 26 new stablecoin-related reporting fields in quarterly financial reports, effective March 2027. Credit unions hold a large amount of depositor funds, and reserve custody and key management are fully regulated, effectively bridging traditional finance and stablecoin compliance.
BTC 24-hour range is 83499‑82168, with a trading volume of 8.08 billion U. The daily EMA7 suppresses the price, the 4-hour EMA7 has risen to 82588, and RSI6 has rebounded to 54.9, indicating short-term momentum is recovering.
Do not heavily bet on a single direction. You can buy in batches at 82000‑82200, with a stop loss below 81500; reduce positions in the rebound range of 83300‑83500. Keep long-term positions unchanged, hold as long as 79000 is not broken.
Despite multiple negative factors, it only pulled back 5%, showing trend resilience. Compliance benefits combined with simultaneous market recovery—is it a coincidence or early capital layout? Feel free to share your thoughts. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Latest news, a few key updates for you to review. On the macro policy front, Xinhua News Agency released the "Opinions of the State Council on Developing New Quality Productive Forces," which clearly proposes building a national blockchain network. Commentary: Officially stamped blockchain infrastructure; $BTC may not necessarily rise, but the sector narrative now has an official backing. Two interesting points in the AI circle. Yang Likun's team submitted H-JEPA, with maze success rate jumping from 18% to 73%, and the paper and code fully open-sourced. Commentary: On the world model path, Professor Yang is truly persevering. On the other hand, AI programming tool Amp integrated Claude subscription, replacing the underlying engine directly with Claude Code, with usage counted within the original subscription. Commentary: Free riders rejoice, the toolchain competition heats up again. Crypto security is truly painful. An address dormant for four years deposited 59 $ETH into a Ledger wallet a month ago, but all were stolen, about $146,800. Commentary: Four years untouched, wiped out in one day; hardware wallets are not safes. OneKey founder analyzed Ledger's supply chain attack vector, proposed five improvements, and stated no damage reports received. Commentary: The supply chain is truly the Achilles' heel of hardware wallets. Regarding market fluctuations, the implied probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October on Polymarket is only about 15.5%, trader tetrose still holds rate hike bets, and holds about 445 on Hyperliquid I am the mid-term intelligence brother.
Let's go over today's community highlights.
The Thai SEC has approved the ETF rules for $BTC and ETH, effective October 16, trading on the Thai Exchange, with the fund's net asset value investing at least 80% in underlying assets.
On the ETH side, the Sepolia testnet activated Glamsterdam, raising the block gas limit to nearly 200 million, three times that of the mainnet; the mainnet has demonstrated atomic-level L1 to L2 transactions.
On the funding front, Fidelity increased its $ETH holdings by $66.6 million on the 20th; BitMine holds 6,016,414 ETH, accounting for 4.9% of circulation, stopping purchases at 5%. Gnosis announced that the xDAI bridge and Omnibridge are the first to use ETH fast confirmation rules, reducing deposit time to about one block.
F2Pool's Wang Chun address moved $12.86 million and 5,173 ETH from Binance in 7 hours; the day before, it swapped 235.51 WBTC for about $19 million and 7,848 ETH.
Current sentiment is 37% bullish, 29% neutral, and 34% bearish, keeping a close eye mid-term.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Samsung initially estimates Q3 operating profit at about 107.4 trillion won, a truly staggering figure. But this time, I want to look at another side within the group: the department selling memory chips is making money, while the department buying memory chips to make phones is facing rising cost pressures.
The Seoul Economic Daily cited Meritz Securities' estimate that Samsung's mobile experience and network business could see an operating loss widen to 1.8 trillion won in Q3. Note, this is a brokerage estimate, not Samsung's official segment performance announcement. But it raises a very practical issue: the same component price increase is revenue on the supplier's books but a cost on the end manufacturer's books.
Whether phones can successfully raise prices and whether users are willing to pay more is another competition altogether. You can't just assume that because AI customers are willing to spend big, ordinary consumers will accept more expensive electronics. Strong overall group profits don't mean every product line is doing better.
Looking at this report card, I am happy for the chip business but won't paint consumer electronics demand all rosy. The upcoming official financial report should be closely watched for how the terminal business absorbs costs: through price hikes, configuration adjustments, or earning less themselves? This round, who takes the profit and who bears the bill needs to be broken down. Even if all bear the Samsung name, they are not the same business.
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元 BTC rose 3.86% this week, currently quoted at $86,589.7, less than 1% below the upper boundary of the 20-day range at 87,399. But during the same period, two liquidity channels were almost halted: ETF net inflows on the 5th dropped to just $267.3 million, and total stablecoin market cap increased by just $670 million in a week. Prices are surging, but fuel hasn't caught up—this is the most important thing to figure out now. Let's look at three sets of numbers. First, the price is surging: BTC is currently at $86,589.7, up 1.56% in 24 hours and up 3.86% in the past week, already close to the upper boundary of 87,399 (lower boundary of the 20-day range 74,955.5); Second, ETF channel halts: US spot ETFs have seen net inflows of about $267.3 million over the past five trading days, with the latest single-day inflow of about $8.3 million, which is basically a stalemate compared to the $2.6 billion level two weeks ago; Third, off-exchange funds also flattened: stablecoin market cap was $311.87 billion, up only $670 million (+0.22%) over 7 days, compared to $3.49 billion (+1.13%) over 14 days—growth was almost entirely in the first two weeks, with a clear slowdown in the past week. Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose to 102.04 (+0.11%), gold rebounded to $4,161.5 (COMEX 4,187.3, +0.6%), and the Fear and Greed Index rebounded from 65 to 70. When prices rise and fuel stops, there are usually three explanations. **First, selling pressure disappears**: Fewer people are willing to sell below 87,000, so small-scale buying can be pushed in$NEAR is up +10.2% today, showing a textbook step structure on the 4H chart—not a pulse, but a step-by-step push upward.
Starting from 00:00 UTC+8 this morning, four 4H candlesticks:
- 00:00 opened at 4.750, closed at 4.652, lowest dipped to 4.624
- 04:00 opened at 4.653, closed at 4.881, the lowest price was right around the previous low of 4.651—clear accumulation at the low
- 08:00 opened at 4.882, closed at 4.950, holding firm above 4.85 support
- 12:00 opened at 4.951, intraday high reached 5.238, closed at 5.224—today's main rally phase
- 16:00 continued the uptrend, closed at 5.288
Note two details:
1. The sharp drop to 4.624 in the morning did not break the previous low (October 9 low was 4.3), followed by a V-shaped rebound—this is a structure protected by capital
2. Almost every candlestick is a bullish candle with no long upper shadows, indicating the bulls are not in a hurry to exit
On the daily chart, $NEAR is still within the range since October (4.6-5.6). Touching 5.28 today is not a breakout, but it has already reversed the downtrend line since October to bullish.
What do you think? Is this $NEAR move driven by L2 narrative, or is it the overall market risk appetite warming up, finding resilience in altcoins?$BTC: Long 🚀
Strategy:
· Do not chase highs; wait for a pullback to the dense EMA support at 82300-82500, then enter long positions in batches after a stop-falling candlestick appears. ⏳
· First target at 83000; if it breaks and holds above, look towards 83499; if the rally weakens, take profits in batches. 🎯
· Set stop loss below 81800; exit on break, do not hold losing positions. 🛡️
Core basis:
1. Structure strengthening: After the low at 80351, a V-shaped reversal occurred; price holds above EMA5/10/20, the three lines converge and turn upward, short-term rebound structure intact. 📈
2. Healthy volume and price: Sharp drop with volume released panic; pullback with reduced volume indicates weakening selling pressure, signaling a rebound consolidation. 💧
3. Clear risk-reward: 83000-83500 is a previous trapped position resistance zone; first break is prone to retracement; enter long on pullback support with close stop loss and distant target, favorable odds. ⚖️
If $ETH and $SOL strengthen simultaneously, the signal is even better. #跟着OKX打卡2049
For strategy review only, not investment advice. ⚠️Don't lift the lid! The $AAVE pot is already boiling over the edge, with an RSI short-term period at 70.4. If anyone adds more fuel, the whole kitchen will pay the price.
It rose 4.68% in the last 24 hours, looking like a beautiful, tempting caramel color, but my eyes, which have stood by the stove for twenty years, only watch two things: the water level and the pot's edge. The price has now pierced through the upper Bollinger Band, with only 1.1% space left above, while the bottom of the pot is 4.9% below — meaning if you reach in now, you can touch the ceiling but not the meat. More troubling is the long-term RSI at only 55.9, lukewarm in the middle range, indicating this strong boil relies entirely on the short-term high heat, with the base flavor not fully stewed.
According to my seasoning rules: mainstream coins are the main dish, altcoins are the spices, and leveraged contracts are the extra hot chili peppers — too much and it burns your guts. $AAVE in my pot is like a pinch of freshly ground black pepper, enhancing flavor, but today that pinch has gone too far. The medium-term Bollinger Band position is at 66%, with 2.8% room above and 5.8% gap below, the balance clearly tipping back.
The signal served up is a red plate: 1-hour RSI crosses above 64, short-term entering overbought territory, a classic "high heat frying to the smoking point" — the moment the aroma is strongest is also the moment it’s about to turn bitter. If you want to eat this, don’t rush to grab at the pot’s edge; wait for it to cool down and lower the oil temperature.
My serving order is written here:
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Take Profit 2: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (+14.8%)
Note the risk ratio of this dish: the stop loss is set 14.8% away, which means this pot has a backup pot even bigger than the main ingredient. Once the fire gets out of control, the cost is the turnover rate for the whole night. So the position must be cut thin, as thin as slicing truffles so light can pass through.
When the heat is right to turn off the fire, those who keep adding chili will only burn the pot — don’t cry if it scorches.$MAGIC Those who chased the high are already trapped!
It was pulled up directly to 0.1638 in one day and then smashed back to 0.107, a typical violent sell-off.
All short-term cycles are bearish, only a small rebound due to short-term oversold conditions; a rebound is not a reversal.
My approach: do not open positions at the current price, wait for the rebound to stall at the 0.124 resistance zone before trying to short again.
Key support is at 0.105; if broken, it will continue downward.
Do you think MAGIC can still surge to a new high of 0.16? $NEAR is up +10.2% today, showing a textbook step structure on the 4H chart—not a pulse, but a step-by-step push upward.
Starting from 00:00 UTC+8 this morning, four 4H candlesticks:
- 00:00 opened at 4.750, closed at 4.652, lowest dipped to 4.624
- 04:00 opened at 4.653, closed at 4.881, the lowest price was right around the previous low of 4.651—clear accumulation at the low
- 08:00 opened at 4.882, closed at 4.950, holding firm above 4.85 support
- 12:00 opened at 4.951, intraday high reached 5.238, closed at 5.224—today's main rally phase
- 16:00 continued the uptrend, closed at 5.288
Note two details:
1. The sharp drop to 4.624 in the morning did not break the previous low (October 9 low was 4.3), followed by a V-shaped rebound—this is a structure protected by capital
2. Almost every candlestick is a bullish candle with no long upper shadows, indicating the bulls are not in a hurry to exit
On the daily chart, $NEAR is still within the range since October (4.6-5.6). Touching 5.28 today is not a breakout, but it has already reversed the downtrend line since October to bullish.
What do you think? Is this $NEAR move driven by L2 narrative, or is it the overall market risk appetite warming up, finding resilience in altcoins?This round of sharp decline made me rethink one thing: if the direction is right, why do some people still get liquidated?
Looking at the market liquidation data these past two days, what I focus on most is not how much BTC has dropped, but those forced liquidations.
Many people might not have completely misjudged the direction.
For example, long-term bullish on BTC, believing there is support around $80,000.
So what happened?
If the leverage is set too high, the market only needs one sharp drop midway to possibly liquidate the position early. Even if the price rebounds later, the account might not have the chance to wait for it.
This is a problem I now pay special attention to:
Correctly judging the final direction does not mean the trading process will definitely survive.
Take BTC as an example, the area around $80,000 is indeed worth watching, but if you bet too heavily with high leverage in advance, when the market suddenly drops near $80,400, the risk may already be out of control.
I now prefer to wait for the price to stabilize before looking for trading opportunities.
In the short term, first observe whether $82,000 can hold, and the rebound strength in the $83,000–$84,400 range.
If support holds and forms higher lows, I will consider lightly trying long positions; if it breaks below $81,000 again, I will abandon the original rebound plan.
This market movement makes me more certain of one thing:
Good trading is not about guessing the highest and lowest points, but about having the account’s capacity to continue participating in the next opportunity when the judgment is wrong.
Next, I will continue to record BTC’s rebound structure to see if the market will give clearer signals.
$BTC #Bitcoin🧊 Hawkish tone returns, crypto circle, don't get ahead of yourself
September FOMC minutes turn hawkish: most officials believe rate hikes may still be needed before year-end. 📉 Note, it doesn't mean a hike is certain in October, but the risk of "high rates lasting longer" is rising.
What does $BTC fear most? Liquidity. 💵 When rate hike expectations rise, if the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to surge, institutional risk appetite will shrink. Even if BTC rebounds, it depends on whether spot buying can hold; if not, a pullback after a spike is not surprising. ⚠️
$ETH is even more awkward. Ethereum has greater elasticity, but when funds are tight, it may not be favored first. If ETH/BTC continues to weaken, even if BTC stabilizes, it may not be able to pull ETH up, and underperformance could continue. 😮💨
So now: don't rush to bottom-fish, and don't be scared into selling out by the "hawkish bias." 🔍 Focus on three key things: inflation data, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can pull ETH up in a rebound.
Before macro pressure eases, leaving room in your position is more important than betting on a one-way direction. 🧘♂️ Stay alive to have the next round. 🚀#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BNB
BNB hits the window high point, how will its defense strength face the next test?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 735.3—746.3 USDT, change +1.28%, trading volume about 7.29 million USDT.
The observed quote has reached the upper edge, buyers currently retain considerable room for recovery. Past low volatility does not guarantee continued resistance to decline; the defense effect should be compared with BTC in the same window and the next pullback, not just based on one day's gains.
If BNB loses 735.3 first when the market falls, the defense explanation is downgraded; if it holds a higher low and maintains a lead in the next recovery phase, the relative support judgment is raised.🚨 Is Bitcoin's volatility even more "abnormal" than Nvidia's? Institutional risk control models may be underestimating the risk!
On October 10, an analysis found that Bitcoin has experienced 10 trading days this year where the daily price deviated from recent trends by at least 3 standard deviations, surpassing the 8 such days during the entire 2018 bear market.
More notably, Bitcoin's annualized volatility has dropped from 84% in 2018 to about 46% currently, but extreme volatility has not disappeared.
📊 Several key data points to watch:
Bitcoin: 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days since 2024 began.
Nvidia: 8 during the same period.
S&P 500: 16.
Gold: 12.
Bitcoin's annualized volatility is about 46%, close to Nvidia's approximately 47%, but extreme volatility occurs more frequently.
This highlights one issue: appearing more stable normally does not mean extreme market moves are actually safer.
Traditional risk models like VaR usually rely on historical volatility to estimate potential losses. If the market suddenly crashes or leverage is liquidated en masse, actual losses may far exceed model expectations. Therefore, some institutions are paying more attention to risk metrics that measure extreme losses, such as Expected Shortfall.
As institutions, ETFs, and market liquidity continue to develop, the crypto market is indeed maturing, but macro shocks, leverage, and crowded positions can still trigger severe volatility. Trading is like begging; find a good spot, put your bowl there, take what you get, but don’t chase or forcefully demand more. If the situation turns bad and someone tries to drive you away, run immediately.Still the same top-touching script, the K-line is smashed down exactly as it was drawn up, and today the bulls weren't even given a chance to catch their breath.
$CAP looks very volatile on this chart; experienced players know it loves to surge high then drop back to shake out positions. Not sure how many times it has pulled up to lure bulls in. This morning it tried to climb from the 0.072 bottom to 0.1, but heavy selling pressure above caused two long upper shadow candles in a row. The moving averages are clearly turning down, bulls have lost control, so next is to follow the trend and look for shorting opportunities on rebounds.
$MAGIC's waterfall drop came fast and fierce; it's a pity if you didn't hold your short position firmly. Initially, the expectation was for another bull trap surge, but it directly crashed. Just now, chasing shorts during the drop almost got stopped out by a rebound; the pace is so fast it really tests your mindset. Currently, bears dominate, so don't rush to catch a falling knife; wait until the rebound weakens before shorting again for safety.
$ETH's 2500 level has become a strong resistance zone and hasn't broken through yet. The 15-minute moving averages are already diverging downward, so the short-term focus is on the 2460 support. Once it breaks down effectively, the downside space opens up directly to the previous low. The current position is indecisive, so controlling your trades is better than opening random orders.Weekend $ETH is being frustrating again, hovering around 2500 back and forth, just unwilling to give a clear direction.
The short position opened near 2614.2 earlier is currently at 2494.94, with 100x leverage floating profit still over 4 times. Although it's much less than the previous low near 2420, the entire downward space has still been taken.
Right now, the 2500 round number is worth watching. If the rebound can't hold steadily, there is still a chance of a short-term retest lower. In this kind of weekend market, it's better to trade less than to get caught in the back-and-forth spikes and disrupt your rhythm. $ZEC $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC spot ETF records the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months
$ETH has broken through two mid-term moving averages, RSI dropped to 40.
▪️ Current price 2,494, 24-hour range 2,483–2,497
▪️ 20-day moving average 2,662, 50-day moving average 2,553, current price is below both
▪️ RSI14 is 40.1, second lowest among ten coins
▪️ 7-day drop of 7.17%, the third largest decline among ten coins
▪️ 30-day increase of only 2.03%, 90-day increase of 38.17% — almost flat in the past month
▪️ 200-day moving average 2,133, current price still 17% higher
▪️ Recent 20-day low 2,474, current price is only 0.8% above it
The divergence is not about whether 2,474 breaks or not, but that the short-term and long-term moving averages are starting to move in opposite directions — one is falling, the other is still rising.
The 20-day moving average turning downward indicates that the buying cost in the past month is moving lower; the 200-day moving average is still rising, indicating the half-year trend remains unchanged. When these two trends conflict, the price usually consolidates at a low level for a while, waiting for the long-term trend to flatten.
The direction favors the bears — only valid below 2,553; reclaiming the 50-day moving average would invalidate this.The facade of this building is still pushing upward, but the load-bearing columns in the underground garage are already emitting stress cries—$YGG right now is a typical case where the curtain wall covers the structure.
It rose 6.31% in 24 hours. Outsiders watch the spectacle, focusing on whether the glass shines. I look at the reinforcement ratio. The short-term RSI has already hit 74.3, which is the red line of the overbought zone, like temporary scaffolding piled higher than the building itself; meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 38.6, slightly below neutral, indicating the main structure hasn’t kept up with this rally. The podium of the building is dancing, but the tower is still laying the foundation—this kind of uneven stress will inevitably cause settlement.
More troublesome is the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price position has already reached 102%, just -0.1% from the upper band—in other words, the formwork is maxed out; pouring even one more centimeter of concrete would cause a mold break. There is still a 7.3% buffer to the lower band, but this buffer isn’t for the bulls; it’s for the pullback. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 71%, 3.1% from the upper band and 8.5% from the lower band, indicating some room for upward movement in the mid-term channel, but it’s already in the high zone, the most wind-load sensitive elevation.
So this is not a position to add; it’s a position to structurally short. I’m waiting for an inertia-driven spike—that’s a cantilever without load-bearing walls supporting it; the higher it goes, the faster it falls. Entry is set 3.8% above the current price, specifically waiting for the end of this cantilever beam. Take profit is split into two parts: the first at 10.4% below entry, which fills the previous gap’s settlement joint; the second at 7.8% below, the mid-level load-bearing surface of the mid-term channel. As for stop loss, it’s set 16.2% above entry—once this line is crossed, it means my structural assumption is overturned, the blueprint is void, and I clear the position immediately, leaving no excess reinforcement.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.02 (current price +3.8%)
Take Profit 1: 0.02 (-10.4%)
Take Profit 2: 0.02 (-7.8%)
Stop Loss: 0.02 (+16.2%)
Trading and building are the same thing: the white paper is just a rendering, RSI and Bollinger Bands are stress monitors, and the real value is always hidden in the load-bearing system you can’t see. This chart of $YGG looks beautiful on the facade, but short-term overbought and weak long-term mean the upper and lower stresses are not aligned on the same axis—such eccentrically compressed components, I never sign off on the acceptance form.
Right now, this building is at the moment when the scaffolding is pushed to the top, the formwork just broke, and the concrete hasn’t set yet. Floating profit 236.47%, the night before last while taking a shower I thought 1642.9 is the psychological level for $SNDK, where trapped positions are released and selling pressure concentrates.
As soon as the price hits, some people run, the weak rebound indicates the selling pressure hasn't been fully digested, bears control the market. I will wait for confirmation then short at 75x.
Currently 1591.1, defense at 1625 is set, holding the position as the sentiment hasn't fully released yet. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Brothers, my stance is still bearish. $BTC and $ETH have not reversed trend, so rushing to bottom-fish is unnecessary. As long as the rebound doesn't break the resistance, it doesn't count as a turnaround.
BTC is around 82,600, having been hammered down from 87,374 earlier, with no clear reversal on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, watch 81,700; if it breaks, there may be further downside; the 84,000–84,300 range is a threshold—if it can't reclaim this, the rebound is just a breather.
ETH is near 2,495, having fallen from 2,807 to 2,355 and then partially recovered, but the strength is insufficient. The 2,500–2,525 range is immediate resistance; if 2,470 doesn't hold, watch out for another retest.
Therefore, I don't chase the rise nor blindly bottom-fish. Until BTC firmly holds above 84,000 and ETH breaks through 2,525, all rebounds should be viewed as weak recoveries. A bigger drop doesn't mean the bottom is reached; the market has to find its own way. The most important thing now is not to guess the lowest point but to avoid reckless moves before the trend changes. This is my personal opinion and not investment advice.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Can $HYPE be bottomed out now? Here's my real thought process
The daily chart of HYPE has already turned down for a correction, with all short moving averages pressing overhead, and MACD showing a bearish death cross with increased volume.
However, KDJ has entered oversold territory, and the price is touching the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting a small rebound is expected, but this absolutely does not mean a bottom reversal.
I will not go all-in long at the current price.
There are layered resistances at 86.7 and 88.2 above; even if it rebounds, the space is very limited, and you might end up buying halfway up the mountain.
I also will not chase shorts at the current price.
It has already dropped to the edge of the lower Bollinger Band, and a quick rebound could wipe out stop losses at any time, making shorting here a poor risk-reward.
Preferred plan: wait to short on a rebound.
Short again when the rebound stalls in the 86.5~86.7 range, with a stop loss above 88.3; first target is 83.2, and if broken, watch the lifeline at 81.6.
Speculate on small long positions during minor rebounds (only very small positions, counter-trend trades).
If 83.26 holds without making new lows, try going long again; exit immediately if the rebound reaches 86.7, absolutely no long-term positioning.
Safest choice: stay out and watch.
If it breaks below 81.6 confirming a breakdown, then follow the trend to short; only if it climbs back above 89.6 midline can the bearish trend be considered over.
Is everyone bullish or bearish on HYPE now? Do you think the 81.6 support can hold?
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 ZEC is currently bearish, with short-term moving averages still suppressing this rebound. The latest price is 1224.48, EMA21 is at 1,243.1215 and trending downward, and the price has not yet broken free from its pressure.
The simultaneous rise in highs and lows indicates that the local rebound has structural support, so the rebound failure cannot yet be determined. The volume ratio for the last complete 4-hour period is 0.62, with no volume expansion yet, and the upward breakout lacks volume confirmation.
Only after consistently holding above EMA21 at 1,243.1215 and seeing volume expansion in subsequent complete periods will the trend turn bullish, invalidating the current bearish judgment.
Only a sustained break below the 1,218.1 support will further confirm the bearish outlook; a single intraday dip does not count as a breakdown.$ETH Big Brother Maji is really on the edge of a cliff this time, the direction is right, but he might be gone first
Brothers, Big Brother Maji is hanging by a thread this time. 12,000 ETH long position, 25x full margin, opened at 2547, liquidation at 2454. Account available margin? Zero. Total assets left only 2.13 million, stubbornly holding nearly 30 million in positions, unrealized loss of 35.64 million, lost 7.63 million in 7 days, and the funding fee is still eating away at his last bit of blood.
To put it bluntly, he is now hanging on the edge of a cliff, fingers gripping the cracks in the rock. If the market shakes down a bit more, he’s gone.
What’s the most heartbreaking? His big direction might not be wrong. At this position for ETH, long-term it might not be the top. But leverage is ruthless; being right about the direction doesn’t help. There might be a spike in the middle that first kicks you out, then the market moves as you expected. But you’re already gone.
This is the cruelest part of leveraged trading: it’s not about who’s more accurate, it’s about who can hold on. If you can’t hold on, being right is useless.
Whether Big Brother Maji can survive this ordeal, no one knows. But this trade serves as a warning to everyone: having a position so heavy you can’t sleep is a mistake. Staying alive is ten thousand times more important than being right. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The leader has something to say
There is an issue with OpenAI's revenue reporting. Originally, it was publicly stated as 70 billion annualized, but the version shown to investors is close to 50 billion. It's not that revenue dropped, but whether sales revenue from cloud partners is included or not—two different calculations differ by 20 billion.
The market is voting with its feet. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Oracle dropped 5%, CoreWeave nearly 8%. AI stocks collectively pulled back. Broadcom is still discussing a 50 billion financing to buy chips for OpenAI; the more money is poured in, the more unclear the returns become.
This indirectly affects crypto. With AI stocks pulling back and risk appetite shrinking, BTC is also under pressure. More importantly, the market is starting to question the returns of AI's money-burning model, and this sentiment will spread to all high-valuation assets.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news has been realized, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. ETFs had a net outflow of 487 million yesterday, the largest since June 25. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. It's time to reduce positions, leaving the rest to break even. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
Control your position size well, avoid heavy positions. The AI narrative is loosening, macro pressure hasn't eased, set your stop losses properly, don't hold on.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; positions must have stop losses set. Good luck.ETF money is flowing out, but the price hasn't crashed
On October 8, the US spot $BTC ETF had a net outflow of 244.1 million.
The previous day saw an outflow of 484.9 million, the largest since June.
How is this number calculated: outflow doesn't mean someone is dumping
ETF money inflow and outflow is based on subscriptions and redemptions.
When redemptions are high, market makers have to sell their $BTC holdings to pay back.
They are selling their own inventory, not your position.
Who else is selling: miners are selling too
MARA sold 996 $BTC, about 81.13 million.
Miners selling coins coinciding with ETF redemptions creates short-term pressure.
But this batch of sell orders is finite; once sold, it's done.
Mid-term positions don't need to follow short-term moves.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC $MARA $OKB perpetual 20x short position, opened at 133.2, now at 126.67, floating profit +98.04%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 133.2 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; there's strong resistance around this area every time. After confirming the top was valid, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 20x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +98.04%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 133.2. Not greedy, locking in profits first, and letting the rest run. $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Discussion on Whether Bitcoin Has Risks Facing the Current Development of Quantum Computers and AI
1. Conclusion First
Short term (within 5-10 years): Bitcoin's core security does not face imminent real risks; mid to long term, once fault-tolerant universal quantum computers are successfully developed, Bitcoin will face significant threats to its underlying cryptography. AI itself cannot directly break Bitcoin's signature algorithm but will accelerate the arrival of related risks and bring other types of attacks.
2. Breakdown of Quantum Computer Risks to Bitcoin
Bitcoin uses the ECDSA elliptic curve signature algorithm, which is the foundation of asset ownership.
1. The Power of Quantum Computer Shor's Algorithm
Shor's algorithm can quickly derive the private key from the public key.
A key feature of Bitcoin: once a transaction occurs, the public key is permanently exposed on the blockchain. Hackers can continuously collect all public keys of spent addresses and wait until quantum computers mature to decrypt and steal, known as "collect first, attack later."
Addresses that have never been used or exposed publicly (never transferred) do not have their public keys revealed, so quantum computers cannot directly break them.
2. Current Reality: Quantum Computers Are Not Yet Capable
Currently, global quantum devices are all noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices with insufficient computing power and error correction capabilities, unable to run Shor's algorithm to break Bitcoin's 256-bit elliptic curve.
The industry generally estimates that fault-tolerant universal quantum computers capable of breaking ECDSA are still a long way off and not achievable in the next few years.
3. Huge Challenges in Bitcoin's Response Plan
Bitcoin's underlying protocol is fixed; if it needs to switch to post-quantum signature algorithms in the future, it requires full network consensus and a soft fork upgrade.
- Advantage: theoretically, new post-quantum signature addresses can be introduced via soft fork;
- Major drawback: assets in old addresses with already exposed public keys cannot be protected. Even if the protocol is upgraded, previously leaked public keys remain vulnerable to future quantum attacks;
- Community coordination is extremely difficult, requiring global node and wallet service provider cooperation, prone to community divisions.
3. Risks AI Brings to Bitcoin (Two Types of Risks)
1. AI Cannot Directly Break ECDSA Elliptic Curve Cryptography
Current large models (OpenAI, etc.) cannot directly derive elliptic curve private keys. In the long term, AI may assist in finding mathematical vulnerabilities and optimizing quantum algorithm circuits, shortening quantum computer development cycles, amplifying quantum risks indirectly, but not direct cracking.
2. AI Brings Immediate Real Attack Risks
This part is unrelated to underlying cryptography but more directly harmful:
- AI-generated phishing websites, forged mnemonic phrase scam scripts, deepfake videos to steal users' private keys and mnemonic phrases;
- AI automatically scanning wallet software and client code for software vulnerabilities;
- AI-driven high-frequency quantitative bots amplifying market volatility.
In short: AI does not attack Bitcoin's underlying cryptography but targets people, wallet software, and market sentiment.
4. Comprehensive Risk Layer Summary
1. Short-term Real Risks (Existing Now)
Wallet vulnerabilities, phishing scams, exchange security incidents, regulatory policies, market liquidity risks are Bitcoin's biggest current risks; quantum and AI cryptographic risks are not immediate crises.
2. Mid to Long-term Risks (Quantum Threats)
After fault-tolerant quantum computers are realized, Bitcoin addresses that have previously spent funds and exposed public keys face theft risks. Bitcoin can upgrade to post-quantum signatures, but existing assets with exposed public keys cannot be remedied, and upgrade coordination costs are very high.
3. AI's Role
AI is not a direct killer but a risk amplifier. It accelerates quantum algorithm research, enhances social engineering scams, and improves code vulnerability discovery efficiency.
5. Horizontal Comparison (Echoing Earlier Discussion on STRK)
- BTC: Existing assets with exposed public keys have permanent legacy risks; protocol upgrade resistance is huge, and existing assets cannot be remedied.
- STRK: Based on native account abstraction, accounts can individually switch to post-quantum signatures without migrating existing assets or hard forks, avoiding legacy public key vulnerabilities.