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$CAP really is a wild coin, launching surprise attacks over the weekend. Looking at CAP's chart, I just exclaimed, wow.
While the market was dead silent over the weekend, it went straight from 0.063 to 0.10, a surge of 23%.
Volume reached 62.75 million U, MACD golden cross—clearly the whales took advantage of the weekend's low liquidity to launch a sudden pump with a small amount of funds.
These small-cap new coins pump hard and crash even harder.
Current price is 0.091, definitely not chasing the high to become a bag holder.
If you hold it, reduce your position on rallies and lock in profits.
If you don’t hold it, just let it play out and wait for a pullback and stabilization.
Money is hard to make on wild coins; preserving your principal is more important than anything.
Don’t get blinded by a single big bullish candle.
This is just market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.6.26 million bitcoins are "naked running," is your coin among them?
Here's a number you need to sync with today: According to Glassnode statistics, there are currently 6.26 million bitcoins lying in addresses with exposed public keys, accounting for 31.2% of the circulating supply. At the current price, that's over 500 billion USD.
Don't panic yet, this doesn't mean Bitcoin has been hacked. The principle is simple: Bitcoin addresses usually hide the public key behind a hash; once you spend, the public key is permanently left on the chain. Reusing an address is like undressing once — among these 6.26 million, 4.33 million are due to address reuse. Exchanges are even more extreme: about 83% of Binance's coins are in exposed addresses, while Coinbase has only about 10%.
The threat comes from the future: if quantum computers can really run Shor's algorithm, these exposed public keys could theoretically be reverse-engineered to private keys. Europol just said quantum computing won't break cryptocurrencies, but wallets are the main exposure point.
So this issue is unrelated to short-term price (Bitcoin is currently around 82,800, sideways), it's a long-term security matter. There are only two things you can do: don't reuse addresses, and keep your wallet software updated.
Is your coin usually used at one address until death?
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, control your position size. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #EthereumI don't think volume will save the market over the weekend. Binance BTC trading volume during the Asian session was about $241 million, roughly half of the previous day. Spot price is about $82,757 (Beijing 16:22, Coinbase).I didn't expect $MET to break even, but it directly brought me profits. This service is really on point.
While everyone was still hesitating, $MET was around 0.2957. After a pullback and stabilization, buying pressure strengthened, so I casually went long. The logic was simple—I just felt this position was worth trying.
Watching the repeated fluctuations during the session was really torturous; I almost doubted myself.
But $MET gave me some face, hitting 0.4151, +804.19%. Time for a nice meal.
I took profits on 75% first, keeping 25% at cost price as protection. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, it won't turn gains into pain.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for a new structure to emerge before deciding.
$SNDK $ETH Weekend consolidation, playing dead waiting for the wind, BTC 82841 slight drop, ETH 2495 slight rise
Trading volume extremely shrunk, BTC only 288 million.
Typical weekend dead time.
US stock market closed, institutional funds stagnant. FOMC hawkish bias, CPI on October 14th looming overhead, no one dares to make a move.
This kind of low-volume consolidation is specifically for pinning and stop-loss hunting, don't chase either up or down.
My strategy is just two words: play dead.
Hold spot positions tightly, absolutely no leverage, and definitely no reckless orders.
Wait for next week's CPI release, the direction will naturally become clear, control your hands, and endure the dead time.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ZEC
[ID Perspective] The market is bottoming out, so why is ZEC's rebound weak?
In the past few days, Bitcoin has fallen and entered a sideways phase, with ETH and ADA somewhat recovering. In contrast, ZEC's rebound strength is noticeably weaker, lacking the previous counter-trend momentum.
Many remember that during market panic, privacy narratives play a role, and ZEC often resists declines. But after a big drop, when funds want to bet on a rebound, people prefer to rush into more elastic altcoins, leaving privacy themes aside.
The story logic remains, but in the short term, the market depends on fund sentiment. Currently, ZEC passively follows Bitcoin, with no active buying seen.
Don't blindly go long based on past counter-trend impressions. ZEC futures positions are heavy; if the market dips again, it will also drop sharply without mercy.
Key points to watch next: whether it catches up with a late rally or continues to underperform altcoins, which will reveal fund attitudes toward this narrative.Those still waiting for confirmation are watching; I've already gained +189. $SUI 50x long, from 1.0726 to 1.1131.
1.0726 is the previous wave's 0.618 retracement plus the previous high overlap, a triple support resonance.
Don't chase the breakout at the inflection point; this is the optimal odds solution. 50x leverage amplifies 189.25%. Move the stop loss up, keep holding. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $SOL short position with 100x leverage, opened at 120.63 and closed at 109.87, floating profit of 891.98%. This trade captured the main downtrend cleanly, but don't be dazzled by nearly 9 times the profit.
What does 100x leverage mean? If the asset rebounds about 1.1% (to around 111), this nearly 9x profit would be halved or even wiped out. 109.87 is right near the 110 whole number key level, with 108-110 below being a dense area of previous buy orders and weekly low support. The RSI indicator has long been oversold. Around 4 PM, the main players like to use the key level to defend the price with sudden spikes to shake out positions. I’m not betting on this 0.25% buffer; I’m directly closing 95% of the position to lock in profits at the current price, leaving 5% as a base position with a hard stop loss at 111.
If it breaks 108, I’ll watch 105 and take it as it comes; if it doesn’t hit, no worries. Conditional orders are set, and I’ll turn off the device to take profits. The numbers on the screen are illusions; only the balance credited to the account is real money. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Ledger lost 86 million USD: The mnemonic phrase was read the moment you wrote it down 🔐
On-chain analyst Specter tracked down 10 suspicious addresses, collecting over 86 million USD from hundreds of victim wallets across BTC, ETH, and TRON chains. Ledger officials have not yet confirmed the total loss; current clues all point to the same source: Malaysian distributor CryptoBilis.
📍 Disclosed attack route (analysis by SlowMist 23pds)
1️⃣ Modified devices sold through normal channels, with intact shrink wrap packaging
2️⃣ A board hidden under the screen buffer pad: microcontroller + LTE module + eSIM + antenna
3️⃣ You initialize the device, the mnemonic phrase displays on the screen, and the module reads it from the SPI screen line
4️⃣ After setup, data is sent back to the attacker via 4G
The secure chip can prevent private keys from being directly exported but cannot control what is displayed on the screen. SlowMist also noted that this path and hardware implantation still require independent verification.
Whether Ledger can provide the root cause and affected batches will directly impact the reputation of the entire cold wallet sector.
Where did you buy your cold wallet?
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 "Small Wealth Brings Peace" Weekly Review (10/3 – 10/10): How I "Held On" This Time
1. The Result First
I made money this week. All 7 contract trades won, with a 100% win rate, earning a total of 273 yuan; the entire account ended with a net gain of +118.67. On the surface, it looks pretty good, but I know deep down—this win was a bit shaky.
2. What I Went Through
The market started the week with a sharp drop. On the 3rd, I lost a small 63, recovered 166 on the 4th, thought it was okay, but then lost consecutively on the 5th and 7th. On the 8th, I lost directly -2.3K in one day, with the account’s maximum cumulative loss reaching 3.28K. Honestly, those two days were quite tough.
I didn’t run away; I chose the "bullet strategy"—adding a layer after each drop, averaging down the cost, betting that after a full drop it would rebound. On the 9th, the market indeed made a V-shaped recovery, and I earned 3K in one trade, filling the entire hole and making a small profit.
3. What I Did Right
First, my mindset held up. At the deepest drawdown, I didn’t panic and cut losses—that’s the truth. Many people lose big money not because of bad judgment but because of panic; I got through that.
Second, I was very tight with contracts, using small positions for quick in-and-out trades, not clinging to any single trade. All 7 trades were closed with profits, avoiding being swept up by big market moves.
Third, I was decisive in cashing out the rebound on the 9th, without "waiting to see more."
4. But I Have to Be Honest With Myself
1. The essence this time was "holding and averaging down," not trading. I won because the market gave me a V-shaped reversal. If the 9th hadn’t rebounded and continued to drift down? My -3.28K loss would have turned into -6K, -10K, averaging down until I ran out of resources. This approach naturally has a high win rate but terrible payout—earning small profits eight times, then losing it all once, possibly even losing principal.
2. The risk-reward ratio is completely unbalanced. I earned only 273 yuan from all contract wins, while the single-day maximum loss on the asset side was 2300 yuan. The system’s "risk-reward ratio" shows `--`, meaning: I have no real stop-loss to calculate; all losses were borne hard, not cut off by stop-loss. This is a major hidden risk.
3. A 100% win rate sounds impressive but is actually scary. Someone who never stops losses will naturally have a near 100% win rate—until one day it goes straight to zero. My current curve is propped up by this.
5. Rules I Set for Myself Next Week
1. Limit averaging down to three layers, with fixed intervals between layers, and set a total position cap. If it still drops after reaching the cap, accept the loss and exit—no more "waiting to see."
2. Before entering each trade, write down the maximum loss allowed (e.g., 2% of principal), place stop-loss orders to let the system calculate the real risk-reward ratio.
3. When the market drops sharply, pause and think: should I average down or stay out and wait for a right-side signal? If I had done nothing on the 8th and entered all at once after confirming the rebound on the 9th, the drawdown would have been much smaller, and profits might not have been less.
4. Find time to break down the 3K profit on the 9th: how much was market-given rebound bonus, and how much was my correct judgment. The former is not replicable; the latter is my real skill.
6. Summary in One Sentence
I won this week by holding on and by mindset, but holding trades is not a strategy—it’s luck hitching a ride. Since I made money this time and my mind is clear, I’ll quickly set the rules—because when I face the first big one-way drop that doesn’t bounce back, there might not be a next time.$MAGIC - Pressure range: 0.124~0.128 (first strong resistance), extreme test 0.133~0.138
The gaming sector's funds are concentrated and rallying together, with short-term shorts continuously being stopped out. As long as the sector's heat does not quickly fade, there is still room for inertia-driven rallies; however, after a single-day surge, a large amount of leveraged long positions accumulate, risking a rapid 10%+ pullback at any time. Absolutely avoid chasing highs or adding positions.
- Support range: 0.106~0.109 (short-term lifeline), 0.097~0.101 (strong support zone)
A volume breakout below 0.106 signals the end of this round of capital-driven rally, with profit-taking concentrated and a rapid correction following.$ETH has rebounded from the low point this round, looking like it’s stabilizing, but active selling pressure in the order book is still suppressing the price, and institutions are still withdrawing funds through ETFs. This is definitely not a bottoming-out scenario with volume expansion.
First, look at volume and price. The drop to the low point was a liquidity sweep, where stop losses and leveraged long positions were forcefully liquidated, then the price bounced back to the mid-level. But the volume on the rebound is off—the open interest is decreasing, indicating old positions are being closed rather than new money coming in; active sell volume in the order book still far exceeds active buy volume, so the rebound lacks solid capital confirmation.
Next, look at the resistance above. The 2500 to 2600 resistance zone has been tested three times this month and each time the price fell back, a typical dense trading and trapped position area. Every rebound to this level is suppressed, and the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully absorbed. ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional demand has temporarily cooled off, and without this support, retail investors alone can’t hold it up.
Characterizing the current position: the price is stuck between the resistance zone below and the long-term demand zone above. Although the CVD shows marginal improvement, it remains negative, meaning selling pressure has only weakened, not reversed. The ETH/BTC ratio is still at multi-month lows, clearly weaker relative to Bitcoin.
On the right side, focus on one thing: a volume-backed close above the 2500-2600 resistance zone, along with ETF outflows turning into net inflows. Until then, every rebound looks more like a pause in a downtrend. Don’t guess the bottom; wait for volume and flow to speak.#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解
The US and Russia have reached a diesel supply agreement, with the US issuing a temporary license and Russia set to release millions of tons of diesel globally. Following the news, diesel and crude oil prices briefly declined. However, it is important to note that this only alleviates the diesel supply gap; the geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.
My view: The market is prone to misinterpret this energy agreement as a complete resolution of the Middle East crisis. The agreement addresses diesel export restrictions, but the core conflict over Strait navigation and US-Iran confrontation remains unsettled. If shipping through the Strait is disrupted again, oil prices will quickly rebound, and inflation expectations will resurge.
From a macro perspective, repeated oil price increases will delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, push up US Treasury yields, and suppress risk assets like BTC. The short-term oil price drop will temporarily relieve market pressure, but geopolitical black swan events could occur at any time, so this should not be seen as a trend-driven positive.
Trading strategy: Do not blindly chase risk assets with contracts. This positive development is a short-term sentiment recovery, not a macro turning point. Continue to closely monitor Strait navigation, Brent crude prices, and long-term US Treasury yields. If tensions escalate again, prepare risk controls and reduce positions in advance. Everyone says that October 10th last year was the worst day for coin drops
But the truth is, even if you caught the exact bottom wick of top coins like ETH, BNB, SOL, we are still far from the peak now.
ETH at 3.4k back then was a disaster, but the upcoming 3k mark is a luxury
$BTC $ETH $SOL The overall market has also been falling these past few days, and SOL has been dropping even harder. On 10-08, the market fell less than four points from its high to low, while $SOL SOL dropped nine and a half points. Looking only at its own chart, it just seems like a bad market, but placing it next to the overall market reveals those extra points of decline.
The difference is shown in the SOL to $BTC price ratio. On 10-06, it was still at 0.00141, but slid more than 5% in four days to 0.00132. The money selling SOL has been more urgent than the money selling the overall market; funds are moving away from it to elsewhere.
On 10-10, this price ratio stopped falling for the first time during the session and even recovered a bit. SOL dropped a bit over one point, the market dropped half a point, and the gap between the two narrowed to the smallest in this period. The continuously declining price ratio finally paused.
To judge whether a fallen coin is being managed, just watching its own rise and fall isn’t enough. Pulling out its price ratio against the overall market and reading them together is necessary. If the price ratio keeps falling daily, the weaker side hasn’t finished selling, and money is moving out. When the price ratio stops falling and levels off, the relative selling pressure has mostly been released, and the remaining task is to repair alongside the overall market.
That said, leveling off in the price ratio is still far from turning strong. It will take several days of holding up against the fall to exchange for strength. For now, it’s at most not dragging behind anymore—the first step of recovery has just been taken.
Going forward, don’t just count how many points SOL has risen. Pull out its price ratio against the overall market and take a look. If the price ratio is rising daily, the money that moved out is returning.$BTC stabilized around the 82,000 level, currently trading near 82,500. On Thursday, it dipped to 80,427, the lowest since early September, then slightly rebounded about 1.38% in 24 hours. ETH simultaneously bounced back to around 2,475, with the total market capitalization rising 2.1% to 2.89 trillion USD.
Sentiment shows divergence. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 63, up 5 points from yesterday, with a 7-day average of 66, still in the greed zone but noticeably down from 71 on October 2. Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled 147.53 million USD, with shorts accounting for 72%, about 106 million USD. BTC short liquidations were 47.24 million USD, 2.6 times that of longs. Shorts are being squeezed, but the index is falling, indicating mixed bullish and bearish expectations. On the funding side, signs of stabilization appear: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 21.12 million USD yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at 22.38 million USD net inflow, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of 3.58 million USD, marking a preliminary recovery from previous large outflows.
From the chart perspective, the 83,000 to 83,500 range has shifted from support to resistance, 82,300 is short-term support at the Bollinger Bands middle line, and 80,800 at the lower band is strong support. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's September minutes show most officials support one more rate hike before year-end, with about a 68% chance of a hike in December. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 "$ALGO I've been watching this coin for quite a while. Honestly, apart from occasional pumps, no one really uses it for an ecosystem. Opening a short at 0.138 was just because I thought it should drop."
It dropped from 0.13892 to 0.11548, the main token fell nearly 17%, and with 50x leverage, I got 843%. There's not much to analyze on the chart; it's just an old coin with no buyers. Every time it pumps, it's just to lure people in. It can't even hold 0.12 now, let's see if it can reach 0.11 below.
My mindset on this trade is pretty steady; I don't plan to bottom-fish or add positions. The base position is break-even, the rest is just hanging to watch 0.11. I'll wait until there's volume breaking below 0.11 to act; if it doesn't break, I won't move. Anyway, I've already made several times profit, no rush. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 The founder leaving doesn't mean the coin is dead. The BTC founder has been missing for 15 years, the DOGE founder sold to buy a car, yet both remain among the largest coins.
But you have to know. For some coins, the founder sold and ran away long ago, and if you're still holding on, it's you.
Even if the founder stays, it can't save everything. Some coins on the "still at the helm" list have dropped more than 90% from their all-time highs.
I know, when buying coins no one looks at the founder, only the charts. Actually, the first question to ask is this: Is the person who started this thing still around? Is their money still in it?
Save this. Before buying a new coin, open this and check where the founder is today.
Final chapter.80 Bitcoins Vanished from Ledger Wallet: A Precise "Supply Chain Massacre" On October 9, 2026, a Bitcoin holder discovered that 80 Bitcoins had disappeared from their Ledger wallet, resulting in a loss of approximately $6.6 million at the market price at that time. These Bitcoins had only been transferred into this newly purchased Ledger device on September 29, and before the theft, the account had an unrealized gain of up to $1.38 million. He Did Everything by the Book The device was purchased from an officially authorized dealer, the mnemonic phrase was handwritten and locked in a safe, with no screenshots, no photos, and no cloud uploads. Yet at 05:54 UTC on October 9, all 80 BTC were transferred out in a single transaction. This Is Not an Isolated Incident On the same morning, numerous similar reports began appearing on X and Reddit, with victims sharing a common factor: all devices were purchased from the Southeast Asian dealer CryptoBilis. On-chain investigator Specter estimated losses exceeding $86 million, Bitquery covering 311 wallets estimated about $92.9 million, and SlowMist's MistTrack reported figures approaching $90 million. Precise Harvesting, Not a Scattergun Approach Compared to the July Coldcard incident, the nature of this attack is clearer. Coldcard suffered losses of about $111 million due to a firmware random number defect that allowed mnemonic phrases to be inferred, but the losses were spread across more than 5,200 wallets, averaging about $21,000 each. Whereas CryptoBil$FIL
FIL is approaching a high point. For the storage narrative, should we focus on capacity or payment?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 1.058—1.1 USDT, change +1.17%, trading volume approximately 9.05 million USDT.
The price is close to the upper edge of the window, with short-term support recovering somewhat. Expansion of storage capacity does not equal increased payment demand; continuous usage, renewal, and revenue are closer to value realization; this market movement has not provided evidence of these business activities.
If there is only the capacity story and the rebound quickly loses the upper half of the range, first lower the business interpretation; if payment and renewal improvements can be verified, and 1.1 is reclaimed and held, then raise the assessment.Unlocking is not a sell order, and demand should not be calculated out of thin air
The $SUI total supply cap and the increase in circulating supply can happen simultaneously. Its supply cap is 10 billion tokens, which are released gradually according to plan. Therefore, "limited total supply" alone is not enough to judge short-term supply and demand; the market trades the circulating portion. I think unlocking is more like a demand test: after new supply appears, can usage, staking, and holding demand keep up? But we also cannot count the entire unlocked amount as selling pressure. Obtaining the qualification to sell does not equal having sold; the actual amount transferred to trading venues and selling behavior are closer to the pressure on price.
$WLD distributes tokens to users, which can both expand participation and put tokens into more hands. The whitepaper arranges for long-term user token allocation. This makes me more concerned about how much buying or holding demand new users bring simultaneously. An increase in token recipients does not automatically mean an increase in buyers. If network expansion mainly relies on rewards and usage demand lags behind, scale and token price may move in different directions.
$ARB Foundation’s portion of tokens is released in installments through contracts, which is a supply arrangement. My view is that the market may trade the unlocking expectation in advance, and the actual release may not be as intense as imagined. But this cannot be interpreted as "unlocking is a positive." The key is how much concern the price reflected before and how much actual selling occurs after release. The calendar can tell us when disposal rights are obtained but cannot tell us how holders will dispose of them."50x $STRK long position, 1221% unrealized profit, the gains are not from the candlestick moves, but because the market finally remembered that the ZK sector still has a 'big brother' at the bottom preparing a big move."
From 0.05573 to 0.06934, the main token rose 24.4%, and 50x leverage squeezed out 1221% profit. Recently, ZK ecosystem interactions have warmed up, and Starknet, as a leading infrastructure, confirmed a double bottom at the base and broke out with volume. 0.060 shifted from strong resistance to core support, 0.06934 approaches the previous high, and the 0.075-0.080 range above forms a chip vacuum zone.
View: 50x leverage severely tests the mindset. The base position has been moved to lock in profits, and the remaining profit position targets 0.080. Hold if the pullback does not break 0.060; reduce immediately on any spike warning to protect the thousand-point unrealized profit, which is the core. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Sisters, $MAGIC has already dropped, so why hasn't this $CAP fallen yet? If it doesn't drop soon, I'm going to collapse. 💀
I really want to trace the internet line over there and drag out the dog whales to ask, what exactly makes this crappy coin so strong?
I just went and dug up all the details about this coin, but found no substantial positive news at all.
It's all just those few signal posts hyping it up, purely pushed up by retail investor sentiment.
This isn't value discovery at all; clearly, they're using us as fuel!
Look at the daily chart, it shot up from 0.07 straight to 0.1, with all moving averages spreading upward, and the MACD red bars getting longer and longer.
On the surface, it looks bullish and unstoppable, but in reality, it's all a bubble-built castle in the air.
It’s rising so sharply without any decent pullback; the dog whales are dead set on squeezing the shorts.
I have two short positions, entered at 0.03975 and 0.07031, now one is floating at a 101% loss, the other at a 410% loss.
Being crushed to the ground and drained dry, my heart is bleeding, sisters! 😭
But the more it pumps like this, the more I stubbornly hold on.
This kind of dog whale highly controlled market pumps purely on sentiment; once this short squeeze ends and the bulls get liquidated, the drop will be a free fall.
I'm not running away, my target remains the same: waiting for it to fall back to 0.06 or even lower.
Tonight, I’ll just obediently eat some houttuynia cordata and try to calm down. 😭
$BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 Another coin has been delisted: discounted exit, first lose 3.5%
BTW, being listed on the delisting list means holders need to convert their positions to USDT themselves, with a reference ratio of about 1 BTW = 1.49 USDT, which is about 3.5% lower than the market price of 1.544 — exiting through this channel means taking a discount loss first.
The chain reaction affects liquidity: some secondary market spot depth shrinks, with pressure from passive selling and liquidity diversion rising together, making short-term supply side changes worth monitoring.
Holders have a straightforward choice: accept the discount and exit quickly, or find alternative liquidity. $BTW⏳Countdown to the liquidation anniversary: Don't treat the anniversary like a script
October 11 is approaching, and the roughly $19 billion liquidation on October 10-11 last year still sends chills down the spine. But anniversary ≠ replay; what we really need to guard against is: a weak market combined with panic, with leverage amplifying the volatility.📉
Current prices: BTC around 82,980, 24h +0.83%; ETH around 2,498, -1.34%; SOL around 110.51, -1.85%. BTC is recovering, but ETH and SOL haven't kept up.
Key levels:
🔹BTC: First see if it can hold above 83,000; if it can't reclaim this level, continue to guard against a pullback; watch 82,000 and 80,000 as support below.
🔹ETH: 2,500 is the immediate battleground; if it can't hold, look at 2,450 and 2,400. Cheap doesn't mean fully dropped, so I kept short positions.
🔹SOL: First defend 110; if lost, watch 108 and 105; to ease weakness, it needs to reclaim 112 with volume.
The focus these two days is not guessing direction but managing positions. The anniversary itself won't crash the market; panic selling and forced liquidations may amplify each other. Guard against pullbacks and also against chasing shorts after a sharp drop only to be squeezed.🛡️
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 🇺🇸 What is the US government up to in the crypto space recently?
1. Government wallets on the move. From October 7-8, $670 million was transferred out in 32 hours: 6,215 BTC, 119 million USDT, 40,285 BNB, all moved into Coinbase Prime. Bitfinex confiscation address transferred another 12,267 BTC, about $1 billion. Transfer does not equal sell; it could be custody consolidation, with strategic reserve BTC not for sale.
2. Regulatory winds have shifted. CFTC proposed the first batch of crypto regulatory rules, allowing retail leverage platforms to opt for federal oversight. FinCEN withdrew two controversial proposals: recording non-custodial wallets over $3,000 and mixing coin monitoring. The background is the CLARITY Act failing in September, shifting regulation toward rulemaking.
3. Market outlook? The government’s transfers coincided with BTC struggling between 82k-83k, and US Treasury yields at 5.72%. Key observation: whether BTC can hold 81,770-82,300. Stable exchange balances are seen as administrative moves.
In short: government wallets are moving but not selling; regulation is changing toward loosening; watching on-chain flows is more useful than watching the news.When you can't see the direction clearly
and don't have a good mindset
it's best to stay out of the market and watch
otherwise, like me, shorting $ETH and getting stuck
will only make your mood worse
and cause you to make more chaotic moves!I couldn't resist adding more $PONS today, even though I know it might still drop. My idea is to at least keep the cost price roughly at the current price level, so I won't have to chase the price when it pumps later. The cost price is now below 0.4. If it continues to drift down slowly, I'll add a little more, but I hope it drops 10% all at once like it did a couple of days ago, going straight to the point! $PONS's buyback mechanism should rank in the top five in the crypto space. Currently, there's just one problem: after the hype around Robinhood Chain and $ARB fades and things return to normal, the revenue drops significantly. This is the only reason for the current low price of PONS. In short, the hardest part is to endure. Anyway, staying patient is never wrong!Ethereum doesn't need to outperform Bitcoin every day, but if ETH consistently underperforms BTC in the long term, it's worth seriously analyzing the reasons behind it.
Is market capital continuously concentrating on Bitcoin?
Are investors' risk appetites declining?
Or is Ethereum itself facing unique pressures?
When analyzing the market, the most important thing is not to rush to conclusions, but to first identify the right questions and then seek answers step by step. Went to court
FTT: Founder sentenced to 25 years, still inside
LUNC: Founder sentenced to 15 years
CEL: Founder sentenced to 12 years
SAFEMOON: CEO sentenced to 8 years
A certain case: Founder served 4 months, was pardoned, did not return
bitcoin-cash's most famous figure paid $49.9 million to get out
Left, then came back
DOT: Founder left in 2022, returned in 2025
This is the second post这次 Maji 的仓位风险，确实让人捏一把汗。 🔴 账户整体数据 - 累计盈亏：-3564.53 万美元 - 近 7 天亏损：763.85 万美元 - 近 24 小时盈利：16.79 万美元 - 当前账户总资产：约 213.1 万美元 🔴 $ETH 多单：高杠杆风险拉满 📊 持仓数量：12,000 枚 ETH 💰 持仓总价值：2992.68 万美元 📍 开仓均价：2547.66 美元 📉 当前未实现亏损：64.52 万美元 💸 累计资金费：134.86 万美元 ⚠️ 预估强平价：2454.09 美元 🔥 杠杆倍数：25 倍全仓 ❌ 可用保证金：0 美元 真正值得警惕的，并不只是账面亏损有多大，而是账户目前仅剩约 213 万美元资产，却扛着接近 3000 万美元的 ETH 多头仓位，而且已经没有可用保证金。 更麻烦的是，资金费仍在持续累积，进一步增加持仓成本。即使后续 ETH 真的反弹，也不代表这笔仓位一定能撑到行情反转的那一刻。 方向判断正确，不等于仓位管理就没有问题。 在高杠杆交易中，市场还没等来反弹，账户就可能先承受不住。 🤔 Maji 这次究竟是在押注 ETH 😊 Midday market view on 10.10, BTC
BTC broke below the bearish flag pattern, falling below the 82727 support.
This rebound wave has consistently failed to surpass the 83532 resistance, with rebound highs gradually declining, increasing the short-term probability of a pullback.
If it can't hold above 82727, it will be difficult to challenge 83532.
The market may retest the previous low to form a double bottom, oscillating within a large range, waiting for a breakout or breakdown to determine direction.
Key levels to watch:
Below: 81917, 81006, previous low 80379, waiting for stabilization signals;
Above: 84500-85200, observe pressure conditions. If no opportunity arises, remain on the sidelines.
Hourly chart must hold above 82727 to have a chance to target 83532 to 84553;
4-hour chart breaking below 81917 suggests further decline to 81006 and 80379.
Technical review only, not investment advice. +85.75%, $HYPE 50x short. 85.884→84.411.
Logic: 85.8 is the upper edge of the previous 1-hour dense trading zone, the daily chart shows signs of stagnation, the 4-hour high is decreasing, and after breaking a small support on the 1-hour chart, there is a rebound.
Multi-timeframe resonance leans bearish, I entered short at the weak rebound at 85.884. The actual 1.72% drop turned into an 85% floating profit.
Stop loss moved down to 85.1, target near 83.5. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 "After the sharp drop, first look at leverage"
Ninety thousand two days ago, eighty-one thousand today, the slap in the face came quickly. But attributing this round of decline entirely to a value collapse might be misreading the target. Within 24 hours, over a billion dollars in positions were liquidated, long positions fell intensively; high leverage bets hit a critical support break, triggering a liquidation chain and a stampede of sell orders. What was cleared was leverage, not necessarily faith.
The $19 billion liquidation in October last year had funding rates annualized above 20%, making the market hot; this time it's about 7%, roughly one-ninth the intensity of the former. The cause of the drop is more macro: the Fed's September minutes were hawkish, December rate hike bets rose to 85%; 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.3%, oil prices at 104, inflation shadows linger, and risk assets are collectively under pressure.
Eighty thousand is a psychological barrier for short-term bulls. Holding it can be seen as a shakeout; breaking below it, liquidation orders near 75,000 may queue up. JPMorgan still expects about $50 billion inflow within the year, big money hasn't withdrawn, but short-term buyers are not rushing in.
In terms of operations, reducing leverage is a priority, no need to panic on spot. Selling caused by liquidations is passive margin removal, not active bearishness. After the liquidation wave passes, both chips and the market will be cleaner.The trend these days is like a manure spray, unstoppable, not even giving a rebound to wipe the mess.
ETH has plunged from 2807 to 2495, three consecutive bearish daily candles, EMA5, 10, and 20 all diverging downward, MACD green bars getting longer.
No bottom-fishing funds, no resistance, just a one-way smash down.
I opened a 100x short at 2727.54, now floating profit is 850%.
Honestly, seeing this number made my hand tremble a bit.
Last week I was still mocked for being stubborn, saying shorting against the trend was suicidal, now those voices are all gone.
The market has reached this point, the logic doesn't need to be repeated.
The rate hike cycle is bearish, liquidity tightens, high-tech stocks and crypto assets are the first to get hit.
After ETH broke below 2500, the next round number support is 2400. There might be a rebound in between, but the rebound is for a better drop.
I'm not greedy, but I don't plan to run either. This position is held very steadily because I know what I'm waiting for.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BSP Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and my mind stays calm without staring at the screen.
Last night before bed, I glanced at BSP; the resistance above was obvious, every rally fell just short, selling pressure was strong, so I signaled a short.
From 41.43 down to 37.96, +83.27% gave the answer. It was really sluggish earlier, but the move turned out great.
Take profits on the big chunk first, keep 20% as a stop-loss at breakeven, let the rest run if it keeps dropping, don’t let profits turn uncomfortable.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they’re the smartest. Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit if it breaks, don’t fall in love with stocks. If you haven’t entered yet, wait for a pullback and reassess when a new structure forms.
$XRP $ZEC I looked at 29 coins. Only 12 projects have founders who never left and have been steering continuously.
I list them in order: (This is the first of 4 posts)
Sold or left
BTC: The last message from Satoshi Nakamoto was sent in 2011
DOGE: The founder sold in 2015 to buy a car
LTC: The founder sold everything in 2017
XRP: The co-founder sold 9 billion XRP
SHIB: The founder erased all traces and disappeared in 2022
XMR: The founder vanished in 2014
SUSHI: The founder ran off with $14 million, returned, then left
ZEC: The founder resigned from management in 2023
EOS: The founder left in 2021 (probably many newcomers don’t even know EOS now)
ATOM: The founder left and created a competing chain
I will list them in 4 posts, OK, the number of posts on this planet is limited, please see the next post. $XDP DP/USDT is waking up again with big news! Price is at $XDP 0.023721, up +3.88% today and +18.32% this week, after hitting a low near $0.0195. Volume is huge at 289M XDP and $6.72M turnover. Price broke above MA5 and MA10, which is bullish. Bithumb listing XDP on KRW market is driving hype. If it holds above $XDP 0.0209, next target could be $0.0266 high and then $0.0323. Support is $0.020.$MAGIC I estimated the dump would start at 4 o'clock, but I didn't expect the dog whale to start at 3.Brothers, do you feel like the altcoin season is coming? BTC and ETH are sideways without much movement, and it seems like funds are starting to probe into altcoins.
But we can't be too optimistic yet. Bitcoin's market dominance is still above 59%, indicating that more funds are concentrated in Bitcoin rather than flowing fully into altcoins. If altcoin season really comes, BTC needs to hold steady, ETH follow, and trading volume must increase together to count.
$BTC is around $82,300-$82,500, with support at $81,000-$81,250, and if weaker, look near $80,400; resistance is at $83,500.
$ETH is around $2,475-$2,490, with support at $2,450, and if broken, look at $2,400; resistance is at $2,520-$2,550.
$ZEC is around $1,210-$1,220, with support at $1,195-$1,200, and if weaker, look near $1,180; resistance is around $1,250. There are also upcoming network upgrades and ETF news.
Right now, it looks more like "individual altcoins moving first," not a full altcoin season. I will keep watching if the major coins can hold steady and see if there is real volume rotation. If you hold altcoins, don't chase on every rise; if you have no position, don't rush to go all in. In this market, being steady is more important than being fast.💪 $SOXL 20x short, +130.77%. Entered at 150.18, marked at 140.36.
Before entering, I was watching the 150.0-150.5 range; it tried twice to break through but failed, with the second high even lower, clearly showing momentum exhaustion.
Volume expanded during the rally but price didn't make a new high, a typical "volume-price divergence + double top" pattern. I shorted at 150.18, betting on a pullback. It actually dropped 6.54%, with 20x leverage turning into +130%.
Currently holding the position, moving the stop loss from 150.18 down to 145.0 to protect profits, looking at 138.0 support below. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 For those wanting to short this thing, see how long you can withstand the high funding fees, which keep rising, while it keeps sideways. The project team holds 90% of the tokens, and the truly circulating tokens are very few. If a whale enters and sweeps up the tokens, how long can the shorts hold on? What will your liquidation price be? The lessons from lab and ra still aren't enough. Unless you never get liquidated, you can try to outlast the funding fees, otherwise don't play, or play it safe and hold without stress $MAGIC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Brothers, this wave of $NMR is just giving free money to the shorts. I opened my position at an average price of 16.302, with an unrealized profit of 59.55%!
NMR current price is 13.069, down 3.95% in 24 hours. I have been shorting from 16.302 all the way down, with a margin of 8.7 and a liquidation price of 1815. On the order book, there are 7.2 sell orders stacked at 13.072, and 505.9 sell orders at 13.071, with selling pressure layer upon layer. On the buy side, there are only a few scattered orders: 11 at 13.068 and 1.1 at 13.067, unable to push the price up. The long-short ratio is 51% to 49%, basically balanced, but the price is being forcibly hammered down.
Why is this short position so profitable? The core reason is profit-taking after the positive news is realized. On October 6, NMR surged 41.73% in 15 minutes due to Upbit listing the KRW and USDT trading pairs, reaching 17.58. But this kind of news-driven rally comes fast and goes fast; after the positive news is realized, those who chased the high are trapped at the peak. The funding rate flipped from an extreme negative -1.2% to positive, indicating shorts are retreating and longs are starting to take over, ending the short squeeze. Plus, there is dense trapped volume between 16 and 17 above, so any rebound just gives free money to the shorts.
From a technical perspective, 13 is short-term support; if it doesn't hold, the next target is 12.5, and breaking that leads to the 12 whole number level. Above, 14 is strong resistance; if it can't be broken, the price will continue to be hammered down.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC oscillated with reduced volume over the weekend between 82,000 and 83,500, with support at 80,000 holding firm. Institutional positions have not fled, the mid-term upward structure remains unchanged, and the base holdings are maintained without short-term speculation.
$ETH is grinding between $2,450 and $2,530, with $2,445 as the core support. DeFi funds continue to flow back, the pullback is a healthy shakeout, representing a mid-to-long-term buying opportunity, so avoid blind stop-losses.
$SOL is digesting profit-taking at high levels; the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. Volatility is extremely high, suitable only for small positions to trade swings. If the 730 yuan support breaks, exit immediately.
Overall market sentiment is optimistic but not euphoric. $BTC and $ETH hold the bottom, long positions aim to capture $SOL's elasticity, leverage is strictly controlled, and weekend spike risks are avoided.
#SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 *Bitcoin Latest October 10 Evening Chinese Version*
*Current Price $BTC $82,600 $ETH $2,490 Only a rebound, reversal not yet confirmed*
*1. Price: $80,350 stop-loss sweep then rebound to $82,500 testing weekly line*
On Thursday, the low of $80,350 swept below $81,300 stop-losses + 1.05 billion short liquidations, on Friday it stood back at $83,000 and retested $82,500. Your calculated range is $86,500 on the top and $81,300 on the bottom, a difference of $5,200 with the midpoint at $84,000 repeatedly testing $84,000. $82,500 is the weekly lifeline; if it can't hold the weekly close above, next week will look at $80,000-$78,000. I have a short box from $81,164-$83,636 with stop-loss at $86,000, currently in profit, TP1 $80K TP2 $77K TP3 $75K.
*2. Capital flow: clear divergence, rebound halted by rate hike expectations*
$BTC 24-hour inflow $65.69 million, but outflow of $486 million in the past week, and $301 million outflow in 30 days, short-term buying but long-term pressure. $ETH outflow of $1.679 billion in one week, the worst among the top four coins, interest rate sensitive, repeatedly weakening and unable to reclaim $2.5K/$2,560. #BTC spot ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months, 55,000 coins moved to exchanges at a loss within the past day at cost $86K-$90K, new entrants can't hold, old money remains inactive. The hardest part of trading has never been analyzing the market, but rather being able to stick to your trading system in the face of intense volatility without letting the market's ups and downs affect your emotions. Accept that uncertainty will always exist in the market, accept that losses are an unavoidable part of trading, and don't force every trade to be profitable. Focus on long-term win rates and risk management to go further.
$BTC $ETH #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 $CL
300,000 tons of diesel won't last the US a day.
▪️ On 10/9, Trump announced the US-Russia diesel agreement: immediately over 300,000 tons, 500,000 tons in November, then 1 million tons, possibly an additional 3 million tons
▪️ On the same day, OFAC relaxed diesel sanctions on Russia, authorizing until April 7, 2027
▪️ 300,000 tons equals about 2.24 million barrels (1 ton = 7.45 barrels), US distillate daily demand is 3.8 million barrels — the first batch lasts less than a day
▪️ Four batches totaling 4.8 million tons, about 35.76 million barrels, enough for 9 days
▪️ US diesel retail price in September averaged $6.2785/gallon, up 70.8% year-over-year, a historic high
▪️ Trump said with "full control" of Hormuz plus Russian diesel, diesel prices will drop quickly
The disagreement is not whether diesel prices will fall, but whether the price includes new production capacity or just a time-limited authorization.
New capacity depends on refineries, calculated annually; authorization is just a piece of paper, effective upon signing, expires upon deadline. The price includes the latter, so it falls fast and rises fast.
The direction points to high-level volatility — before the authorization expires, supply-side variables are political, not capacity; risk release is only discussed if prices fall back below 100.Thailand Crypto ETF: Slow Signal Through the Cracks
The Stock Exchange of Thailand has approved crypto ETFs, initially only including BTC and ETH. The rules are strict: passive tracking, a single coin net exposure of at least 80%; assets are custodied under SEC supervision, and brokers are prohibited from margin financing. Individuals still cannot buy overseas crypto ETFs; qualified institutions, high-net-worth clients, and local public and private funds can allocate local products.
Almost simultaneously, BTC spot ETFs experienced the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months. While policies pave the way for compliance, funds are retreating in the short term. In the medium term, this is a roadmap for compliant Southeast Asian capital entry, slightly bullish on BTC and ETH holdings; but don’t sound the charge yet. Wait for subscription, transaction, and custody data to pick up before betting.$BTC $ETH Has the sharp drop completely cleared out the market? During the sideways consolidation, focus on the differentiation among coins.
After consecutive sharp declines, the market briefly stabilized yesterday. Today, BTC is stuck in the middle, neither rising nor falling, and the market has reached a decision point.
Don't rush to judge the bottom; risk appetite is hidden in the strength and weakness of various coins. BTC has stabilized, but internal differentiation is obvious. ETH and ADA can only passively follow the big coin with slight rebounds, while small coins like ZEC are weak in their rebounds and unable to gain momentum.
If altcoins collectively strengthen and rotate upward later, it means funds are willing to take risks and risk appetite is warming up; conversely, if altcoins continue to languish or even drop further, it indicates that everyone is still risk-averse, and this stabilization is most likely just a pause in the downtrend.
During the sideways phase, don't blindly bet on direction; pay more attention to the performance of altcoins, as they will tell us the market's true intentions in advance.
Have you dared to touch altcoins recently? Let's chat in the comments.Now cryptocurrency trading is becoming younger and younger, but there isn't an official academy-style format for trading. If OKX could create a dedicated group chat to educate, like a science popularization among a group of students, I think that would be pretty good