Orbit Post Sitemap
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
The leader has something to say
PIMCO Chief Investment Officer Ivascyn warns that if energy inflation, fiscal pressure, and leveraged liquidations continue to push bond market sell-offs, the US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6%. This is not the baseline forecast, but a clear warning.
The background is clear. The 10-year is already at 5.36%, the 30-year at 5.73%, the UK 30-year has broken 6%, and the French 10-year hit a 20-year high. On October 8, the 30-year auctioned with a winning yield of 5.618%, the highest since 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54 times, still above the recent average, indicating temporary willingness to take on the bonds.
But for risk assets, a 6% risk-free yield means the denominator in valuation models will increase again. Funds will flow into US Treasuries, putting pressure on Bitcoin and tech stocks.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic remains unchanged: positive news has been priced in, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. ETFs saw a net outflow of $487 million yesterday, the largest since June 25. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. Time to reduce positions, leaving the rest to break even. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Manage your position size well, avoid heavy exposure. Without a drop in US Treasury yields, Bitcoin is unlikely to have an independent rally. Keep stop losses tight on shorts, don’t hold through heavy losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.$CASHCAT Originally wanted to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself.😎
Just finished lunch and checked the market, CASHCAT was grinding at a high level, strong sell orders, low trading volume, every surge fell short. I judged the resistance above was obvious, signaled bearish during the session, a rebound is a short opportunity. CASHCAT held under pressure without breaking, shorts naturally comfortable.
From 0.1556 to 0.1145, shorts +528.27%, feeling good brothers. Timing nailed, big profit. Worth the wait.🔥
Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don’t fall in love with stocks. The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
First close 80%, protect the remaining 20% at cost. Let profits run on further drops, don’t give back profits on rebounds.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me, chasing highs easily gets stuck at the peak, wait for the next shot. Watch for new structure. Opportunities remain, don’t rush.
$ADA $BTC International gold prices surged more than 1% overnight, approaching $4200. The direct driver of the rebound was weak U.S. employment data, which softened expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, but institutions warn that this recovery does not equate to a one-sided reversal.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 🔥$MAGIC This line stunned me.👀
0.038 stayed flat for almost half a year, and today it took off right from the spot, reaching a high of 0.163. It surged 67% in one day and multiplied 1.6 times in 7 days.
24-hour trading volume is 528 million USD. What does that mean? The turnover rate is extremely high, indicating that the old chips buried at the bottom have been happily distributed today during this crazy short squeeze.
Many people are staring at this pillar and their hands are itching again.
To be honest: this is a typical dog pump and dump short squeeze. It fell so low at the start that no one paid attention, shorts got too confident, and a slight pull triggered a chain of liquidations. Now rushing in to chase the high is purely playing the buyer's show.
Those watching the market are wondering "how high can it go," but the real money makers are thinking "how to turn floating profits into USDT."
If you don’t hold any position, just watch the show and don’t catch a falling knife. If you have holdings, take profits in batches and don’t always try to sell at the highest point.
Bitcoin is still hovering below 84,000, and the macro environment does not support altcoins to keep soaring unilaterally. This kind of surge is just an emotional outburst, and the retreat definitely won’t warn you.
The trading equation is simple: only the money in your pocket is yours. Those who rush in by luck will eventually pay back with their own strength.
For this kind of single-day doubling scenario, do you dare to get on board or just watch?👇[Empty Position Waiting for the Wind: FOMC Hawkish, BTC Testing 80,000, My Operation Plan]
This week's market is not easy to trade. The FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most officials expecting another rate hike before the end of the year. US Treasury yields surged to 5.36%, the highest since 2002. Over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated more than $900 million, with longs accounting for 91%. At times like this, being out of the market feels most comfortable.
I am currently out of the market, holding about 75U in cash, with no orders placed. It's not that I don't want to buy, but I haven't seen any signals worth acting on.
BTC: It fell from 87,000 down to around 82,000, with a 24-hour low touching 80,400. The key battleground is between 80,000 and 82,500. If it can stabilize with low volume in this range and then rebound with volume, I will build my first position with 15-20U, setting a stop loss at 79,500. If it breaks below 80,000 directly, I will continue to wait for 75,000-78,000.
ETH: The 2,500 level was briefly lost, even dipping below 2,400. The validator exit queue is still being digested, ETF net outflows continue, and 2,500 is a key psychological barrier. I will not enter for now; I will wait for a clear bottoming signal around 2,400-2,450, then lightly test with 10-15U, stop loss at 2,300.
JUP: The fundamentals are indeed strong—Jupiter Lend deposits surged to $2.6 billion, officially surpassing Kamino as Solana's largest lending protocol; token unlocking has ended, and 70% of fee income is continuously used for buybacks. However, technically it is overbought, price has distanced from EMA, falling from 0.388 to around 0.35. No chasing highs; I will wait for a pullback to 0.30-0.32 to stabilize, then lightly enter with 5-8U, stop loss at 0.28.
PUMP: Staying away. Although there was an oversold rebound, about $40 million unlocked on October 12, and the team and investors are still in a 3-year linear unlocking cycle, so supply pressure persists. I previously cleared my position near 0.005; now above 0.0056 is none of my business.
My core principles:
1. No orders placed, no price guessing; wait for signals before manual operation.
2. Keep at least 40U as core ammunition; no rush to use it all.
3. Until macro uncertainty is resolved, cash is the best position.
The more chaotic the market, the more you must control your hands. Better to miss out than to make mistakes. When BTC gives a clear signal around 80,000, we will strike hard again.
#Bitcoin #ETH #JUP #TradeReview #RiskControl
$BTC $ETH $PUMP
Personal operation record, not investment advice.📊Midday Contract Review｜$HYPE & $BICO Perpetuals
🔹HYPEUSDT Perpetual
Current Price 83.925｜Intraday -1.65%｜Funding Rate 0.0050%
Smart Money Total Positions 152.08M, Total Traders 723, Nominal Long-Short Ratio 55.59%
Longs: 325 traders, positions 54.34M, average price 80.87841, unrealized P&L +1,972,733.49U, long profit ratio only 22.76%
Shorts: 398 traders, positions 97.74M, average price 75.89643, unrealized P&L -9,350,350.39U, short profit ratio as high as 86.93%
💡Key Controversy: The vast majority of shorts are profitable positions, continuously realizing profits, with price falling accordingly; although longs have overall floating profits on the books, the proportion of profitable traders inside is very low, most longs are actually at a floating loss, indicating unstable chip foundation. High-level oscillation with downward probing, longs face the risk of profit-taking short squeezes at any time.
✅Personal Position: 20X full position long, floating profit +1505.55U, return +239.06%, margin ratio 4.60%, profit buffer slightly shrunk, continue holding, closely watching if shorts continue to realize profits
🔹BICOUSDT Perpetual
Current Price 0.01977｜Intraday -0.60%｜Funding Rate 0.0100%
Smart Money Total Positions 915.67K, Total Traders 292, Nominal Long-Short Ratio 281.37%
Longs: 176 traders, positions 675.57K, average price 0.0211683, unrealized P&L -47,782.51U, long profit ratio 31.81%
Shorts: 116 traders, positions 240.09K, average price 0.0208846, unrealized P&L +13,537.11U, short profit ratio 69.82%
💡Key Controversy: Nominal long-short ratio surged to 281.37%, long positions highly crowded, many longs trapped, short profit ratio continuously rising, rebound under pressure, risk of long liquidation by longs.
✅Personal Position: 8X full position long, floating loss -1530.91U, return -613.19%, margin ratio 4.60%, maintaining position, insist on no averaging down, waiting for chip structure repair
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Disguised unlocking (most severe)
The team and early investors have 44% of 0G locked tokens postponed until 2027, which seems well-intentioned, but the total circulating supply shown on Binance has increased to 600 million. When something is abnormal, there must be a catch. If they cross-chain these locked native OG tokens into WOG, then invest them into DEX or CEX on other chains for circulation, it is equivalent to bypassing the lock-up commitment.
This is cheating, directly diluting the value of the native tokens and increasing actual selling pressure.$NEAR
NEAR is approaching the high point again; has yesterday's pullback risk disappeared?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 4.625—5.03 USDT, change +6.83%, trading volume approximately 26.68 million USDT.
The quote is close to the upper edge of this window, indicating a large recovery space, but the previous rise was followed by a significant pullback, showing that high volatility is bidirectional. The risks of buying at high levels and supporting at low levels differ; the new lead still requires a pullback to hold.
If repeated surges near 5.03 are followed by declines and the lows continue to drop, be cautious of another realization; if the pullback after a breakout remains in the upper half of the old range, the strength and sustainability will be more credible.$APT
APT/USDT Perpetual 30-Minute Review
This ID's view: The rebound from the 0.6901 low point has been quite strong, currently forming a new small to medium consolidation zone at a high level. At this stage, it is a reversal recovery phase after an oversell, and bulls and bears will engage in a battle here. If the lower boundary of the consolidation zone holds, one can try to trade for further upside; if it breaks below the consolidation zone directly, then this rebound should be considered at risk of ending.
Entry: Consider going long if the price pulls back and stabilizes at the lower boundary of the consolidation zone; consider shorting if it effectively breaks below the consolidation zone.
Stop loss: Place long stop loss below the consolidation zone, and short stop loss above the recent rebound high.
Chan Theory Structure: On the 30-minute level, there was a rapid sell-off that hit the 0.6901 low, followed by a strong rebound. Now the purple secondary consolidation zone shown in the chart has been formed. Currently, the consolidation is oscillating to choose direction; upward continuation will extend the rebound, downward will return to weakness.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation: Volume was fully released during the rally phase, indicating capital entering at low levels to support. After entering the consolidation zone, volume began to contract, bulls and bears are temporarily in a tug-of-war with no side having absolute advantage; a clear signal requires volume expansion later.
Key Observation: Focus closely on the upper and lower boundaries of this newly formed consolidation zone. Holding the lower boundary means the rebound still has a chance to continue; if volume expands and breaks below the consolidation zone, be mentally prepared for another downward probe. ETH needs to wait for a breakout above 2520 to confirm a 4-hour trend reversal. The key support below is at 2470; if it breaks below 2470, the rebound will end, and the market will continue to test the critical low support between 2405-2410. The short-term pressure on the 15-minute chart is at 2500. Only after a confirmed breakout above 2500 can one cautiously try going long on $ETH Don't short, absolutely don't short, brothers, don't be tempted by the dog whales.
Don't believe in shorting, there are too many people shorting right now.
Look at the daily chart structure, it's moving very steadily, the upward trend hasn't changed at all, it's solidly moving up.
Right now, the dog whales are exploiting people's psychology of rising prices to lure everyone into shorting, using the short sellers' chips as fuel to keep pushing the price up.
Only when the shorts stop shorting can the price possibly fall.
At this time, you must keep your mindset steady. Although I am stuck in a position, I do not advise everyone to short.
$CAP has been pulled up from 0.037, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all diverging upwards, this is a textbook bullish alignment.
The MACD momentum also shows no signs of weakening.
With this kind of trend, if you insist on shorting, aren't you obviously fueling the dog whales?
I opened a short at 0.08243, and the floating loss has already exceeded 38%.
I take this lesson myself.
The biggest fear in trading is going against the trend, and the current trend is clearly upward.
Yet the whole network is shouting "too much rise, time to short," which itself is the most dangerous signal.
When is the real top?
It will be when no one dares to short anymore, when the shorts completely admit defeat and surrender—that will be the real top.
Clearly, now is not that time.
Keep your mindset steady, don't be blinded by the current gains, and don't be fooled by the dog whales' tricks.
$BTC
$ETH
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 $BTC surged from around 82500 to 82728 within 3 minutes, then slightly pulled back after the spike, currently priced at 82656.6. The short-term has completed a bottoming and rebound wave, and after another attempt to break the previous high, it entered a high-level consolidation.
Now we are watching whether the resistance at 82728 can be effectively broken. After a price pullback, it still holds above 82600, with the lower lows rising. The short-term bullish momentum is warming up, but the selling pressure at the previous high has not been fully absorbed yet.
The levels are very clear. The resistance at 82728 is the core short-term pressure; only by holding above this line will the rebound space further open up. The first support below is at 82500; if this is lost, the current bottoming and rebound structure will be broken, returning to weak consolidation.
We won’t aggressively chase longs just after touching the previous high, nor will we flip to bearish just because of slight consolidation. Whether this rebound can continue depends on holding above 82728.
For current positions, focus on the 82500 support; if it holds, continue holding to play for a breakout above the previous high. If repeatedly failing to break 82728, be cautious of the risk of a spike and pullback, and prepare a plan to reduce positions. #跟着OKX打卡2049 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 Trump's "The Art of the Deal."
#Trump made a decision:
On October 9, relax sanctions on Russian diesel and open the gates for imports.
Putin was very straightforward:
Over 300,000 tons in October. 500,000 tons in November. After that, another 1 million tons.
Zelensky only said one sentence:
"A terrible birthday gift for Putin."
— Putin's birthday was just two days ago
Diesel prices dropped a bit,
Russia's war funds went up a notch.
For the midterm elections, Trump is sending money to Putin.
This is "America First."
Next, most likely:
The US compromises with Iran and reaches an agreement,
Hormuz reopens to navigation, and oil prices fall.
As for the more than 20,000 US troops and three aircraft carriers in the Middle East,
They are just bargaining chips for maximum pressure negotiations. @OKX 预言家 #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 Brothers, is it really suitable to add to ETH positions right now?
Looking at the overall margin rate of 0.10% in my account, my palms are sweating cold.
Position update:
$ETH: full position 5X, entry price 2718.24, mark price 2610.28. Floating loss -88.16U, ROI has already dropped to -20.77% on $ETH. This mess is now a bottomless pit; when the market falls, it leads the charge down, and when the market rises, it plays dead. BCH: full position 10X, floating profit +69.34U (+150.72%), base position 460U, still the strongest pillar on the field. $BCH
$SOL: full position 20X, floating profit +34.63U (+44.31%).
The 0.10% lifeline! As soon as the market fluctuates down by 0.1%, the hard-earned profits from BCH and SOL, along with my principal, will be instantly liquidated on the full position! Nothing will be left! Adding to the losing ETH position at this critical moment is not bottom fishing; it’s like holding a bomb and lighting the fuse!
Moreover, ETH shows no signs of stabilizing now, purely catching knives. What do I use to add? Drawing margin from BCH and SOL will only speed up liquidation, and adding more funds is just handing my head to the exchange.
I must stay clear-headed! Once the gambler’s mentality kicks in, it’s the beginning of zeroing out!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Persistence itself is a moat. Surviving 8 years of trading with debt is rare; ordinary people collapse in 2 or 3 years. My system is fundamentally simple: right-side trading, catching the second wave, a method I've used for years. Once the technique is in place, the bottleneck is all mindset—cultivating the mind is much harder than refining skills. In 2024, I simplified by abandoning altcoin-focused $BTC $ETH contracts, and my results improved significantly. Focusing on the assets I truly know, gambling is a double-edged sword; you must distinguish resilience from recklessness. #闪迪正式纳入标普100指数
Looking at the candlestick chart, it has been continuously falling these past few days, already breaking below the short-term moving average. The first support below is around 1576. If this level holds and a reversal candlestick forms, there will be a chance for a rebound; the resistance above is in the 1670-1700 range. To continue upward, volume must increase to firmly hold this resistance zone, otherwise, a surge up is likely to be pushed back down. For the coming week, I expect a high probability of consolidation and bottoming. If Micron leads and the storage sector sentiment warms up, and the price touches support and stabilizes, it will rebound to test the resistance above; but if the market weakens and breaks support with volume, it will likely continue to drop to the 14xx level. My thinking: the long-term storage logic is sound, with AI storage demand plus buybacks providing support. Short-term, I won't chase highs; since I'm already trapped, I can only consider averaging down depending on the situation, waiting for a pullback to support and a reversal signal on the candlestick before considering entering in batches, with stop-losses set in advance. Going forward, focus on the storage sector linkage and changes in trading volume. #跟着OKX打卡2049 Brothers, the short position for 1218 has already been entered. The market manipulators want to either blow me up or let me take some profit,
I don't care. At this moment, I just want to prove one thing: my judgment is not wrong.
The biggest problem for ZEC right now is that the buy orders are turning into sell orders.
The mining pool boss Wang Chun has been continuously rotating positions over the past three days, and the US government deposited 17,733 BTC worth $1.48 billion into Coinbase Prime during the same period. People holding hundreds of millions in chips are actively reducing positions, it's not retail investors panicking.
JAN3's CEO Samson Mow directly pointed out that ZEC's 22 billion market cap is artificially propped up; there isn't enough speculative capital to sustain this valuation, mean reversion is coming.
It sounds harsh, but just take a look at the candlestick chart: ZEC has dropped from 1697 to 1112, his judgment is being realized.
My 1218 short position, with 50x leverage, is now slightly profitable.
The resistance zone for a rebound is between 1230 and 1250; breaking above that is an opportunity to add positions. The support at 1113 is the previous low; breaking below that means 1000.
ETF redemptions are happening, mining pool bosses are rotating positions, institutions are questioning the valuation. Tell me, what does ZEC have to rise on?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 I think Binance Brazil's recent move is a compliance slimming, not a global withdrawal. Starting October 27, 8 services will be cut locally, and 22 coins will be delisted. Spot price is about 82,614 USD (Beijing 12:18, Coinbase).Weekend shrank into a single line: $BTC stuck in the 82200–83000 box
Current price around 82710. Today it surged to 83014 then fell back, opened at 82871 but hasn't recovered yet — daily chart is showing bearish candles.
Daily forecast (clearly stated):
Bearish oscillation, assuming it doesn't recover 83014. First watch the lower edge of the box at 82280; if 4H closes below 82280 → target 81700, if worse then look to previous low at 80400.
The only condition for bullish reversal: volume breakout above and hold 83014, next target is yesterday's high at 83530.
Weekend market is thin, false breakouts are common, avoid chasing one-sided trades.
For personal opinion only, not investment advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis$ETH Ethereum Market Analysis
From a technical perspective, ETH has been continuously declining recently, with the price falling back from above $2700 and reaching a low near $2408 on October 8. Currently, the price is fluctuating below $2500, with short-term bears still dominating, and the market has not yet shown a clear reversal signal. Although there is a technical rebound demand after the continuous decline, the strength of the rebound still needs further confirmation.
On the support side, attention should first be paid to the $2400–$2420 range below. If it can stabilize, a rebound to $2500–$2550 is expected; if $2400 is effectively broken, further declines to $2350 or even $2300 should be watched out for. On the resistance side, focus is on $2500–$2550 first, followed by $2580–$2600. Only with a volume-supported hold above $2600 can the short-term trend gradually recover.
On the news front, recent Ethereum spot ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows, coupled with a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, which have suppressed market risk appetite, putting some pressure on ETH's short-term rebound.
In summary, ETH is currently in a weak consolidation phase after a sharp decline, with an overall bearish bias. If a clear stop-loss signal appears near $2400, a technical rebound can be considered; if support fails, further declines need to be guarded against. It is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish or chase shorts; focus on the strength of key support levels and whether the rebound is accompanied by increased trading volume. #跟着OKX打卡2049 $AAVE is close to resistance, what evidence is most lacking for a breakout
$AAVE 24h +3.35%, current price 171.3, only 0.57% away from the 1-hour resistance at 172.28. This kind of position often creates an illusion: if it crosses during the session, the breakout is considered complete. The real weighty answer is whether it can hold after crossing.
The current 1-hour volume is about 0.75 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with activity still near normal. This means the key level requires confirmation through continuity: touching, crossing, and holding are three different things and cannot be replaced by a single moment.
Zooming out to the 24-hour range: low at 164.57, high at 172.28. The current price at 171.3’s position within this range directly affects the meaning of the same signal. Near the high, strength needs to prove it’s not a spike followed by a fall; near the low, a rebound needs to prove it’s not a continuation of the downtrend. The range is not a forecast target, but a tool to check whether the current narrative is hiding risks.Trump said Russia will supply diesel to the United States, and this news does indeed help ease some anxiety. According to AP, the first announced supply scale exceeds 300,000 tons. But first, we need to distinguish: this is an announcement of a supply arrangement, not proof that the oil tankers have already unloaded.
Diesel, crude oil, and Hormuz shipping are not the same issue. Increasing refined oil supply can address diesel shortages, but it cannot magically fix refineries, nor can it eliminate navigation risks in the strait. If shipping schedules, insurance, or export permits get stuck, there may be oil on paper, but the end users could still find it expensive.
I understand why the market is seizing on this news. Transportation, agriculture, and industry all need diesel, and with prices remaining high, costs will inevitably be passed on to ordinary people's bills. Someone willing to replenish supplies is certainly better than continuing to shout at each other.
But I am reluctant to declare the energy crisis over based on just one agreement. The truly useful follow-up is loading ships, arriving at ports, and stable delivery; to judge whether inflation is easing, we still need to see if diesel prices can genuinely come down. Crude oil prices might dip first, but drivers may still pay the same at the pump—this kind of discrepancy is entirely possible. Right now, I am more concerned about when the first batch of goods will arrive, less about premature celebrations, and more about giving delivery some time.
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 A large outflow from ETFs, the simplest explanation is "Grayscale's high fees, funds just switching products." But this time, looking into the details, that explanation doesn't hold up well.
Farside data shows that on October 7, the total net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs was about $485 million. The outflow wasn't just from GBTC: IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB also saw redemptions, with IBIT having the largest outflow that day. Multiple products going negative together means you can't lightly attribute the total outflow to the same batch of money just switching accounts.
This is more alarming than just looking at the amount. However, the data doesn't tell us who each holder is, nor whether the redemptions were for hedging, taking profits, or other asset rebalancing. Simply shouting "institutions collectively fleeing" is also just inserting drama into the spreadsheet.
I am willing to acknowledge the value of long-term buying, but I don't like thinking of "institutional funds" as a faith-based position that will never regret. Legitimate accounts also have risk budgets and will retreat. What we need to watch next is whether inflows can cover these product redemptions again, not picking one fund still buying to boost our confidence. When inflows are continuous, everyone watches the total; once outflows start, suddenly only partial data is discussed. This selective optimism is more harmful than a day's red or green.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 In this minutes, there is a detail that made me pause and read it twice: some officials have already raised their estimates of the neutral interest rate. Several other officials believe that the current policy rate does not significantly restrict the economy, or the restriction is very mild.
This is a bit painful. The market thinks money is expensive, but the Federal Reserve might feel it’s still not expensive enough. The minutes also mention that rising stock prices, narrow corporate credit spreads, and active financing continue to support financial conditions for growth. Focusing only on interest rate numbers and saying "the economy can't hold up" may not explain why companies are still borrowing and investing.
There is no dashboard that can read the neutral interest rate in real time, and officials’ estimates are not the final answer. But if they keep raising the reference point for judging tightness, investors who still take the interest rate levels from the last cycle as a bottoming basis are likely to face wave after wave of disappointment.
For the crypto market, I want to see real changes in financing demand and credit environment, not just the absence of a hawkish adjective in a sentence. Every time I hear "we’ve raised so much already, it should be over," I want to ask: is this evidence from the economy, or a wish from positions? After reading the minutes, at least for now, I can’t comfortably answer that.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Everyone knows about the $FIL halving, with a market cap of tens of billions in front of it, but this halving logic is completely different from Bitcoin's halving. This one halves slowly over 6 years, so in the short term, it’s not really a positive and doesn’t change the supply-demand relationship for the next few years. So it’s more like a tool to deceive retail investors and dump. The 23-hour non-stop trading of US stocks and the tokenization of US stocks are huge negatives for altcoins like FIL (a big drop is inevitable around the 15th).I came across an on-chain report saying Dogecoin "is no longer used."
Bitquery released a fairly serious report that dug through Dogecoin's data from the first block in 2013 up to now, spanning over a decade. The report states that the average daily active addresses in 2026 are only 46,700, down 41% from last year, the lowest since 2017.
Seeing this number, my first reaction was, it's over, no one is playing anymore.
But I kept reading. The same report says Dogecoin's mining difficulty is about seven times higher than at the beginning of 2022. Hashrate reflects how many machines are guarding this chain. While the number of users is decreasing, the number of machines securing the chain has actually increased sevenfold.
It's like a convenience store where fewer customers come in during the day, but the backroom security staff increased from one to seven. Would you say this store is going out of business or gearing up for something big?
The report also mentions a detail: 87.5% of the $DOGE transferred on-chain is "change," meaning money automatically returned by the UTXO model. This doesn't mean frequent buying and selling by people; it's the system running accounts in the background. What might real people be doing? Like me, buying and holding, then going to work.
Miners willing to add machines to guard this chain indicate they believe this chain is still worth protecting. BTC daily chart shows a pullback signal; the support in this segment will determine the short-term direction #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
The BTC daily chart is right in front of us. After the high of 87399, it started to pull back, and now the price is oscillating around 82716.
First, let's look at the key levels:
The first resistance above is 84000, which is the upper edge of the recent consolidation platform. If it can hold above this level again, the bulls have a chance to test the previous high of 87399.
The first support below is 80000, an important psychological and structural support for this rally. If it breaks down effectively, the correction space will further open; below that is a strong support at 76500.
Regarding indicators, RSI has already fallen from a high level to 42.64, showing a clear weakening of bullish momentum. OBV has not yet shown large-scale capital outflows, but the upward strength is no longer keeping pace with the price.
On the fundamentals side, the spot ETF continues to see large net outflows, with institutional funds cashing out at high levels and no longer adding positions. The market currently lacks new strong positive catalysts to push prices higher, so even slight negative news can easily trigger selling pressure, and intraday stop-loss sweeps will increase.
We are now in a high-level pullback phase, and the direction has not fully emerged. Do not chase longs below resistance levels, and do not casually take heavy short positions if support is not broken. In a volatile market phase, control your actions first and only take opportunities you understand.Robinhood's chain is figuring out a gameplay where whoever pays more can have their order jump ahead. It's a bit like the fast lane at the airport. But this is on-chain, right? Isn't it always said to be fair and transparent? This kind of queue-jumping feels awkward to me. I wonder where the ordinary people's orders will end up being pushed to in the end $HYPE
Hyperliquid has built its identity around on-chain trading infrastructure rather than trying to be a general-purpose blockchain for every possible application. That specialization creates a clear value proposition, but also concentration risk: activity is closely tied to derivatives and trading demand. Sustaining liquidity, users and market depth through different market conditions will be crucial.$BNB I'll be straightforward, the 746 order book for BNB is quiet outside, but inside it's dog-eat-dog. Damn it! The manipulative traders have their scythes raised high, forcibly dragging the K-line along. If this isn't a shakeout, then what is it? 🤡
Looking at the market, buy orders around 740 are piled up like a fortress, and 750 above is heavily suppressed. This is a typical capital wash and accumulation. Don't ask about the news, there is none, it's purely capital pushing and dumping.
My idea is simple: lightly position around 746, if it gets lost, just consider it feeding the dogs; if you catch it, it could be a main upward wave. Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback confirmation.
Whether to follow or not is at your own risk. If you want to get on board, click the card below to check the order book yourself 👇👇👇October 14, 20:30, US September CPI.
Barclays forecast: overall year-on-year 3.7% (previous 3.4%), core year-on-year 2.5%, core month-on-month 0.24%, lower than August's 0.29%.
Note — the overall jump is driven by energy, core is cooling down.
The market has priced in an 82.3% chance of "no rate hike in October."
But the real bomb is not next week, it's in December.
Gasoline month-on-month +9.23%, heating oil year-on-year +38.8%. WTI is now about $89, Brent hovers around $100.
But core CPI month-on-month actually dropped from 0.29% to 0.24%.
Energy is noise in the headline number, not the trend.
And airline ticket prices have already risen 23%, Morgan Stanley says — the pass-through of fuel costs is nearing its end.
The transmission of energy to the core is almost over.
CME data shows an 82.3% probability of no change in October.
The September minutes said "no rush in October," and Waller clearly stated on October 8: rate hikes don't have to be consecutive and timing can be flexible.
An 82% probability betting on "no hike," this part has almost no expectation gap.
Want to make money betting on this direction? You're already late.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in December is 67.6%. Next Wednesday's core month-on-month CPI number will decide whether to hike in December:
Core month-on-month ≤ 0.2% → December hike probability drops sharply → USD weakens → BTC rebounds above 85,000.
Core month-on-month ≥ 0.3% → December hike "set in stone" → BTC tests 80,000 or even lower.
One number, two directions. Don't guess, watch the number.
BTC is now oscillating between 82,000-83,000, just went through 1.19 billion in liquidations, fear and greed index dropped from 71 to 56. Spot funds are flowing back, but Hyperliquid whales are still adding shorts.
Deleveraging before CPI, direction set by 82,000 after CPI.
Hold 82,000, rebound continues. Break 82,000, look to 80,000.
Don't guess direction, wait for signals. Those who guessed direction were liquidated in the 400 million liquidation on October 6.
82% bet on "no hike in October," no more profit in this direction.
The real game is in December — and next Wednesday's core month-on-month CPI is the fuse.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Brothers, $MAGIC is still under the strong control of the main players, with a strong pull-up, you can follow the momentum to go long!
I entered a long position at 0.15176, the current price is 0.15243, with an unrealized profit of 1.32%. The 24-hour trading volume surged to $234 million, while the market cap is only $40 million. The daily trading volume is nearly 6 times the market cap, which is not a volume that retail investors can push; it's the main force driving it hard.
Why dare to go long? First, BingX just launched spot trading, and on October 10 at noon, MAGIC/USDT trading will open. Such a listing announcement is a reason for a price rally. Second, funds are overflowing from the blockchain gaming sector; BTC has pulled back from 87,000, and the main funds have nowhere to go, so they are moving into small-cap old altcoins. Third, MAGIC has been consolidating at a low level for a long time, the chips have been cleaned up, resistance to a rally is low, the main players have strong control, and it is still in the rising phase.
On the chart, the price has stabilized above the short-term moving average, MACD shows a bullish alignment, and volume is cooperating well. The short-term resistance above is 0.16; breaking it leads to 0.18 and 0.20.
I will continue to hold my long position entered at 0.15176, set a stop loss at 0.14, and the target is first 0.18.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $INTW Just switched the software to the background, and it crashed instantly. Is it playing hide and seek with me? 😂
In the early hours yesterday, INTW surged to a high level, but volume didn’t keep up. Every push up was just short of breath, with obvious resistance above. I saw INTW repeatedly testing the pressure level, judged the support was insufficient, and signaled bearish during the session—not chasing at highs, waiting for a pullback to short. 🔥
From 30.26 all the way down to 23.65, the short position gave a direct answer, with a floating profit of +546.1%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet; those on board must have woken up smiling.
The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for.
First close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let profits run; if it rebounds, don’t give profits back. Take profits when it’s time.
For friends not yet on board, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal to move, I will notify immediately. Awaiting good news.
$LAB $BNB The pullback is intentional, this should be understood in reverse.
$BTC and $ETH may pull back once more in the next three days.
Only breaking the previous low counts; if it doesn't break, it doesn't count.
What is the opposing side waiting for:
The pullback is to test how many people are holding without selling.
Last time after the pullback it went up; this time the position is deeper.
Where will it pull back to:
$ETH looks around 2386, $BTC between 79,000 and 80,000.
These numbers are calculated, not guessed.
$ZEC has dropped 35% from the high, falling smoothly.
It may not pull back to the low point, possibly just lightly touching it.
Stop-loss orders placed in that range have already been swept away.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH Today the layer2 sector collectively rallied. Has sector rotation really begun?
OP showed the strongest performance, with price rising combined with positive funding rates and a relatively high long position ratio, indicating high leverage fund participation.
ARB was relatively weak, with limited gains and negative funding rates, showing significant market divergence; if prices strengthen later and short positions continue to accumulate, a short squeeze could drive a rebound.
ZK shows characteristics of “longs dominant, short-term deleveraging”: a high proportion of longs but declining open interest.
How much higher can this wave go? $OP $ARB $BTC There is indeed a significant divergence in the current market here.
The bears believe the price has broken below the daily neckline level and is weak on the pullback, continuing to fall, while the bulls think this is just the M zone (manipulation zone) of an AMD pattern.
Both views are reasonable, but I lean more towards the bullish side.
Structurally, we are in a Bitcoin bull market, which is beyond doubt. Additionally, there are a large number of unliquidated shorts at 87500, which clearly does not satisfy Bitcoin's previous inertia downtrend that swept stop losses at the highs. Also, as mentioned in the live broadcast, there is a weekly-level historical fractal for Bitcoin.
Currently, many shorts have positioned at the neckline to short, and market makers need to squeeze these shorts in the opposite direction to push the price up. The first target must be the highly liquid zone at 87500. Whether these shorts will be squeezed again here or market makers will close or sell their chips here requires waiting for the price action and order book data at that time to make a judgment. #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The slight rebound in the past two days is driven by short covering, not new money buying in, so don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
First, let's talk about $BTC. It bounced back from around 80,000 to above 83,000, but in the past 24 hours, shorts liquidated over 50 million, accounting for 80% of total liquidations. This is a short squeeze, not a long attack. On the ETF side, there was a net outflow of 487 million on October 7, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARKB all exiting. Glassnode data is even clearer: in the past 30 days, realized market cap increased by 12.8 billion, but new money was only 4.9 billion, less than 40%, so the price rise is not driven by new funds.
Next, $ETH. The rebound was capped at 2,500 by moving averages, with shorts targeting 2,395. ETF funds continue to flow out, staking yields can't keep up with US Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in below. When $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone else and remains the weakest.
Finally, $XAUT gold. It pulled back to the 4,200 level, but record ETF inflows provide strong support, with Q3 net inflows hitting a historic high. Short term, it is pressured by the dollar and US Treasury yields, but under stagflation logic, as long as inflation isn't controlled, funds will eventually flow back into hard assets.
The current strategy is simple: hold spot positions in $BTC and $ETH firmly, unload all short-term leverage, watch for continued ETF inflows supporting gold, and wait for the October 14 CPI release to reassess direction. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Brothers, after playing in the crypto circle, I really feel like I'm getting Parkinson's.
Every time I see such a tempting order, my hands can't help but tremble, uncontrollably wanting to short.
This time, I couldn't resist either, so I shorted.
Look, $CAP went from 0.017 all the way up to 0.099, nearly doubling in thirty days and more than quadrupling in ninety days.
Today it surged 23% in a single day, reaching a high of 0.09976, just a tiny bit short of the 0.1 whole number threshold.
Then it pulled back from the high, now at 0.09056.
The long upper shadow hangs there, doesn't it look like the whale is shouting: "Brothers, I can't hold the longs anymore, you guys hold it up first."
I entered the short at 0.09031, why did I dare to short?
Because this kind of rise is a typical emotional pump; I searched the entire internet and found no fundamental positive support for it.
And the closer it gets to 0.1, the heavier the selling pressure will be. The whale dares to pump so blatantly, definitely stepping on one foot with the other, not using real money to break through.
Now retail investors see the surge and mostly chase in, so what result awaits them?
In terms of operation, hold the short position, add more shorts on rebounds to 0.095-0.10, set stop loss above 0.11, target first at 0.075, and if broken, look at 0.065.
The whale is already telling you to hold it up, and you really dare to hold? Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment, at this position, I'm definitely short.
$BTC
$ZEC
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ The most important thing in trading is not making money, but being able to keep the money you earn. If you can't hold onto the money you make, then making money is all for nothing.
Last night, Bitcoin fluctuated less than 1 point. This morning's data from CoinGlass shows that over 60,000 people were liquidated again. 60,000 people, brothers.BTC and ETH plunged sharply in the early morning, hitting lows of 80340 and 2405 respectively, then rebounded strongly from oversold conditions.
However, this recovery has reached the upper technical resistance zone, so you can try shorting in batches to establish a bottom.
BTC: Try shorting around 82700, add positions at 83550, target 81800
ETH: Try shorting around 2498, add positions at 2530, target 2450 $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🍱 Saturday midday three major cryptos: BTC bounced to 82800, ETH back to 2485, SOL hovering at 109
$BTC 82886, up 2.28%, rebounded from 82383 to 82886. After holding 82000, it rebounded from oversold, but the ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months, institutions are exiting, indicating big money doesn't recognize this rebound. 83000 is resistance; if surpassed, look to 84000, otherwise it will continue to hover. Midday liquidity is better than early morning, but don't chase highs on the weekend.
$ETH 2485, up 2.11%, has already broken the liquidation line of big brother Maji at 2473, his ETH longs should have been liquidated. 2500 is resistance now; if surpassed, look to 2550, otherwise it will continue to hover. ETH is weaker than BTC, with less rebound strength.
$SOL 109.51, up 0.87%, almost flat at 110. SOL is the weakest, with the least rebound. 110 is a psychological barrier; if held, look to 115, if broken, back to 105. The tokenized stock news for Solana can't support it; avoid trading at midday.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Midday three majors: BTC eyes 83000, ETH targets 2500, SOL holds 110. Large ETF outflows, don't get overexcited, keep light positions over the weekend.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Minutes sound hawkish, data spoils the plan—what is the crypto market afraid of?
Once the September FOMC minutes were released, the screen was full of "the hawks are coming." Most officials indeed said: if inflation doesn't drop, tightening will continue. Some worry the 2% target is stalled, and others feel financial conditions are "not tight enough."
But this minutes report has a fatal flaw—it’s a rearview mirror.
The meeting was held on September 16. At that time, September’s nonfarm payroll and PCE data were not yet available. Looking back now: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, core PCE year-over-year was 3%, below expectations. CME interest rate futures have directly priced the probability of an October rate hike at less than 25%. JPMorgan and Bloomberg agree—the hurdle for a rate hike has been raised very high.
So the current situation is quite contradictory: the minutes are hawkish, the data is dovish, and the market is pricing dovish.
What crypto fears is not the hawkish minutes, but the hawkish reality. The reality is that employment is cooling, inflation is falling, and the necessity for rate hikes is decreasing. No matter how fierce the minutes are, they reflect the attitude from two weeks ago, not the actions two weeks later.
Short-term volatility will occur, but to call it a new round of "hammering," the data does not agree.
What truly determines the direction is the next set of data, not the previous minutes.Next Wednesday, the September CPI data will be released.
What is the current market consensus?
"Energy prices are soaring, overall CPI will definitely explode, the probability of a rate hike will rise, and BTC will fall."
Barclays predicts the overall CPI year-on-year will hit 3.7%, with gasoline prices surging 9.23% month-on-month. Morgan Stanley predicts even higher, at 3.69%.
Everyone is preparing for a "CPI surprise." But no one is asking one question—
What if the core CPI cools down?
The overall CPI will indeed be driven up by energy.
But the Fed is not focused on the overall CPI; it watches the core CPI.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley’s forecasts are highly consistent: September core CPI month-on-month at 0.24%, down 5 basis points from August’s 0.29%.
The reason is simple: in August, wireless communication service prices jumped abnormally, contributing about 0.1 percentage points to core CPI. This factor fades in September, so core inflation naturally falls.
Overall CPI explodes, core CPI cools down.
The market fears the former, but the Fed only looks at the latter.
CME data shows: an 82.3% probability of holding rates steady in October, and a 67.6% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.
October is basically locked in with no change.
But whether to hike in December is highly disputed. A 67.6% hike probability means the market thinks "a hike is very likely."
What if core CPI is only 0.24%?
How much would the December hike probability collapse from 67.6%? To 50%? 40%?
This is the real "expectation gap."
Why is this an asymmetric opportunity?
Looking down: the market has priced in "CPI surprise → higher rate hike probability." If CPI really explodes, how much more can BTC fall? From 90,000 to 81,000, $1.3 billion in longs have already been liquidated. Leverage that should blow up has blown up; those who should cut losses have cut.
Looking up: the market has almost no pricing for the scenario "CPI cools → no rate hike in December." If core CPI is really only 0.24%, December hike expectations collapse, the dollar weakens, and US Treasury yields fall—
BTC’s upside elasticity from 82,000 is much greater than the downside.
You might say: energy prices have risen so much, how can CPI cool down?
Right, overall CPI won’t cool down.
But the Fed’s decision basis has never been overall CPI.
They watch the trend of core inflation. Core CPI month-on-month fell from 0.29% to 0.24%, slowing for the second consecutive month. Housing inflation remains stable at 0.24-0.25%, and auto insurance still drags core inflation down.
The direction of core inflation is downward.
But the market is only focused on the headline gasoline price number.
What you fear, the market has already priced in.
What you haven’t thought of, the market hasn’t priced in yet.
Everyone is anxious about "CPI explosion," and this anxiety is already reflected in BTC’s drop from 90,000 to 81,000.
But how much has the market priced in the possibility of "CPI cooling → no rate hike in December"?
Almost zero.
What does Waller think?
He said at Jackson Hole: inflation needs to "fall at a sufficiently fast pace." The September minutes show "most" officials expect one more hike this year but suggest no rush in October.
Waller put it more bluntly: rate hikes don’t need to happen at consecutive meetings; timing can be flexible.
In other words: the Fed has given itself room to "wait for data before deciding."
If core CPI cools, what reason do they have to force a hike in December?
What about trading strategy?
This is a left-side game; control your position size, don’t go all in.
If next Wednesday core CPI month-on-month ≤ 0.2%, December hike expectations will drop sharply. BTC at 82,000 has already digested a round of leverage liquidation; the upward resistance is smaller than most think.
If core CPI ≥ 0.3%, then you have to accept it. But at that time, your position control will determine everything.
Everyone fears a CPI explosion. But the real question is—
If core CPI is only 0.24% and December hike expectations collapse, how far can BTC at $82,000 go up?
The market hasn’t answered this question yet.
Because the market isn’t even asking.
Next Wednesday, October 14.
Overall CPI will look bad. Core CPI might look good.
The market is pricing the former. The opportunity might be in the latter.
$BTC $ETH $XAU BTC is now on the trial bench.
$82,000 — this number is not chosen at random. It stands on the ETF average cost line and is also pressed below the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.
That Thursday drop, from $83,000 down to $80,400, triggered $1.19 billion in liquidations. It has now bounced back, but what about the quality of the rebound? No volume, no breakout, no confirmation.
This is a "corpse repair" after deleveraging, not a "trend reversal."
Market sentiment is cooling down in sync. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 71 (Greed) on October 2 to 56 (Neutral). ETFs are more direct — $484.9 million outflow on Wednesday, another $244 million on Thursday, totaling $729 million in two days; institutions are voting with their feet.
Three lines of defense, one map.
First line of defense: $83,000. Bitwise analyst Luke Deans made it clear: this area is the intersection of the ETF average cost base and technical highs, "tested repeatedly in recent weeks." If the price repeatedly fails to break through, it means this support has changed its nature — support turning into resistance is the most dangerous signal.
Second line of defense: $80,000. Myriad's market prediction data is sobering: BTC has a 67% probability of touching or falling below $80,000 in October, and a 40% probability of reaching $77,500. This is not panic-mongering; it's a bet made with real money.
Upper resistance: $87,400. The September high; bulls must close above this daily to confirm a true reversal. Until then, every rebound can only be considered a "dead cat bounce."
Before CPI, three strategies, pick your seat.
Spot holders — hold steady. Is BTC at $82,000 expensive from a cycle perspective? Not expensive. But you don’t need to make any decisions the day before CPI. Barclays expects the overall September CPI year-over-year to rise to 3.7%, with energy up 5% month-over-month and gasoline up 9.2%. The headline data is likely to look bad. Wait for the actual release.
Contract traders — strictly avoid heavy directional bets. This is the most important. The market has fully priced in no rate hike in October, but has underpriced the risk of "CPI exceeding expectations." What is asymmetric risk? The good news is priced in, the bad news hasn’t come yet. What are you betting on?
DCA investors — continue as usual. The volatility brought by CPI is your best friend. Buy more on dips, buy less on spikes, it’s that simple.
$82,000 is the trial bench. Hold it, the rebound continues; break it, $80,000 is next. Don’t get carried away before CPI, watch the signals after CPI.
$BTC $ETH $BZ $ETH
Ethereum is cutting down
The next support is around 2540
If it breaks down further, it may correct to 2350
With a large-scale correction plus liquidation of long positions
There is a chance it will move near 2300
A 0.382 retracement can cut off all long positions
At this level
If the candle closes upwards, it looks bullish
But if the candle closes and then falls again, it will go to hell
If the rebound is "blocked" at the upper box, I will consider shorting SpaceX plans to purchase spectrum to expand mobile communications, bringing renewed attention to on-chain infrastructure narratives. UNI, as a core decentralized trading asset, indirectly benefits, but in the short term, I judge that the market is still dominated by capital flows, limiting the rebound strength.
Price is 7.387, slightly up 0.4%. The funding rate of -0.0104% indicates shorts are paying, with open interest at 5.747 million coin-margined contracts, showing intense long-short competition. The order book buy/sell ratio is 0.97, with sellers slightly dominant. The 4-hour chart shows a decline of -26.67% from the high and 3.79% above the low, with the downtrend unchanged. 7.227 is the recent key support, and 7.453 is resistance.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 7.235, place a long order with a stop loss at 7.128 and a target of 7.442; if it rebounds to 7.448, lightly short with a stop loss at 7.531 and a target of 7.268. Position size should not exceed 20%, and be cautious of short squeezes under negative funding rates.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信
#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $UNI #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
The ECB minutes turn hawkish, but why don't risk assets need to panic?
The October ECB meeting minutes show that most members believe maintaining restrictive rates remains necessary if core inflation stickiness continues. Some members even worry that the path for wage growth to fall back to the 2% target range has deviated and question whether the natural rate midpoint is systemically underestimated. The minutes also mention that current financing conditions are "not yet sufficiently restrictive," implying pressure must be maintained.
However, these minutes are essentially an "old map." The meeting was held on October 2, before the release of September Eurozone CPI and PMI data. The latest data shows September CPI year-on-year at only 1.7%, the first time below the 2% target since 2021, core CPI down to 2.7%, and German manufacturing PMI contracting for the fourth consecutive month. Interest rate futures indicate the probability of a rate cut in December has risen above 70%. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both point out that the threshold for further tightening has significantly increased.
In other words, the minutes are hawkish, but market pricing has already anticipated easing. Risk assets like Ethereum may experience short-term volatility but are unlikely to face a new "cold wave." The real drivers of the trend are the upcoming employment and inflation data, not the already outdated meeting stance.
Good positions are waited out, not chased.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Just glanced at the market, BTC is still hovering above 82,000, ETH current price is 2492, basically unchanged. Right now, BTC's volatility is narrowing, and volume hasn't picked up. The sentiment is cautious, but not panicked. Resistance is around 83k to 84k above, only if it truly breaks above will there be play; support is near 81k below, if it breaks, it might test 80k. Chasing highs at this level isn't worthwhile, better to wait for a pullback or a breakout with volume.
There are two things to watch today. One is that if US credit unions get involved with stablecoins, they might have to fill out 26 additional federal reporting fields, including custody, issuer exposure, and their own holdings. Regulation is getting more detailed; in the long run, this is good for compliance, but in the short term, sentiment around USDT and USDC might get stirred up. The other is a ZeroHedge article about AI authoritarianism, saying governments lack constitutional brakes. It looks like a macro tech topic, but risk appetite could be affected, and AI combined with crypto might get dragged along.
Anyway, now it's just waiting for direction. BTC hasn't broken key levels, altcoins aren't strong, ETH is sideways. Don't leverage too aggressively, keep some ammo. $ETH $SOL $BTC
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Brothers, the hands-on learning class is starting again!
This time, I’m not just grabbing a seat; I’ve been lying in the trenches waiting for this!
Look at this screenshot: I entered a short position on $SNDK at 1887.5, and now the unrealized profit has already hit 156%. I’ve even figured out how to count my money if this drop continues.
I’m not bragging, just look at this chart—the bears have perfect timing, conditions, and support.
$SNDK rolled down from a high of 1908 all the way to 1591 without a decent rebound. The EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 lines are like three guillotines pressing down on the price, MACD is lying below zero, and the green bars have never shrunk.
The most brutal part is the moves by the big players. South Korean regulators tightened leverage on ETFs, forcing leveraged funds in the storage sector to liquidate, causing $SNDK to plunge 10% intraday.
Then, institutions exited long positions in Nvidia and storage, totaling over $63.7 million.
Even worse, OpenAI’s annualized revenue fell far short of expectations, slapping down the AI demand narrative.
Big players are running and panicking, while I, a retail investor, am waiting below to pick up bargains. Just thinking about this scene is thrilling!
This is the legendary "hands-on learning," brothers—paying tuition while learning how to squeeze money from the market makers.
I’ve paid my tuition this time; it’s my turn to feast, right?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Saturday noon.
The weekend is great because you don't have to watch the A-shares. BTC is hovering around 82600 with almost no fluctuation, the 24-hour high is 83499 and the low is 82173, just grinding within this range.
After bouncing up from 80351 yesterday, it hasn't dropped further these two days, nor does it have the strength to surge upwards. MA5 and MA10 have already stuck together, just waiting to pick a direction. Weekend trading volume has also shrunk, retail investors have all gone through the weekend, leaving institutions grinding it out.
An interesting piece of news: Genius Group previously sold all their BTC holdings to repay debts, but then turned around and bought back 10 coins. Selling at a low point and then buying back, this operation isn't much different from retail investors.
The brothers in the group who bottomed out at 83000 are not panicking now, saying let's just leave it like this over the weekend and lie flat waiting for next week's opening.
What do you think, will next week first push up to 83500 to trample MA20 underfoot, or will it retest 80000 again???