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#Ledger confirms a device involved was implanted with hardware
【Can cold wallets secretly have hardware installed? The sense of security in the crypto world is shattered】
Ledger is in trouble this time. The official confirmation states that unauthorized hardware components were found in a hardware wallet of an affected user, with the investigation pointing to Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis. On-chain trackers estimate that the related stolen $BTC losses may exceed $86 million, but the amount has not been officially confirmed, and it is still unclear whether the implanted hardware directly caused the entire loss.
People buy cold wallets to securely hold their private keys and assets themselves. But the device was tampered with during the supply chain process, which is outrageous. Do we now have to open our cold wallets to check if they are safe inside?
This is a serious supply chain security alert, not a breach of the entire Ledger system. If you bought a device from the involved distributor, do not initialize it yet; if you have already used it, follow the official advice to migrate assets with a brand new mnemonic phrase. Remember, never give your 24-word mnemonic phrase to anyone who asks.
Do we really have to resort to complicated methods? Use a spare phone, install an open-source wallet or even have AI write one, go offline, and keep the phone safe—this is really too troublesome.【$DOGE Breakdown】0.0853, what is the dog waiting for?
Daily: DOGE has dropped 42% from the May high of 0.1186 to the August low of 0.0676. Now at 0.0853, it is suppressed by both MA10 (0.0900) and MA20 (0.0929), with the price running below all moving averages — the daily level is still in a bearish pattern, and the rebound can only be considered an oversold correction, not a reversal.
1-hour: After plunging to 0.0809 on 10/8 following the broader market, it made a V-shaped recovery. Currently, MA5/10/20 are converged between 0.0855-0.0858, with the price oscillating close to the moving averages, forming a converging pattern to choose direction.
Key levels:
Above, 0.0860-0.0861 is today's rebound high plus previous platform; holding above this marks a short-term strength shift;
Further up, 0.0880 is resistance at the 1-hour level;
Below, 0.0848 is today's low; breaking this targets 0.0809 (the panic bottom on 10/8), and breaking that would signal a new round of decline.
Assessment: Daily is bearish, hourly is converging, so short-term can only be treated as oscillation. Do not chase longs at the middle level of 0.0853 — either wait for a breakout above 0.0861 to confirm further rise, or wait for a pullback to the 0.0809-0.0848 support zone to enter. DOGE is high Beta; when BTC moves, it amplifies volatility, so keep position size light.
Risk reminder: This is only a personal technical observation and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency and leverage carry extremely high risks; please do not follow blindly.$SUI
【This ID's Viewpoint】
On the 30-minute level for SUI, after initially breaking below the large purple consolidation zone, it dropped to a low of 0.9968, then staged a rebound. However, this rebound is merely a pullback repair after the breakdown; the price has not been able to reclaim the original purple consolidation range. In the latter half of the rebound, upward momentum clearly weakens, and after peaking, signs of stagnation appear. The major bearish trend has not been completely reversed.
Entry: Consider shorting opportunistically when the rebound's upward momentum weakens and meets resistance.
Stop Loss: Place above the high point of this rebound.
Chan Theory Structure:
On the 30-minute chart, the price breaks downward out of the original purple consolidation zone, hitting a low of 0.9968 to complete the downward departure phase, followed by a secondary rebound wave. This recovery only tests the lower edge of the old consolidation zone and never truly stabilizes back inside it, representing a standard breakdown and pullback structure. Although the moving averages are short-term upward, a top fractal signal has appeared at the secondary level, and the internal strength of the rebound segment is gradually weakening. As long as the price cannot reclaim the old consolidation zone, the downtrend structure remains valid.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
There was a clear volume surge during the breakdown, indicating capital flight; during this rebound rally, volume was initially supportive but gradually contracted on bullish candles as the rally progressed. In the later peak phase, the price attempts to rise, but buying capital cannot keep up. This is a rebound driven by capital fighting after overselling, with no sustained large-scale inflow of funds for buying.
Core Observation:
Closely watch the lower edge of the original purple consolidation zone as a resistance level. If the price continues to fail to break above it, the market will face renewed downward pressure.In the past 72 hours, whale groups have increased holdings by about 15,000 BTC, over 166,000 ETH, and 45 million XRP. Eleven new wallets are suspected to belong to the same giant whale, selling 602 BTC and buying 18,800 ETH, both transactions worth $45.83 million, indicating a shift of funds from BTC to ETH.
On the other hand, some whales continue to deposit to exchanges. One address deposited 200 BTC ($22.32 million) to Kraken 3 hours ago, with a total of 5,603 BTC ($627.1 million) deposited in the past two weeks. Since October, this address has deposited a total of 11,271 BTC to multiple exchanges. Three wallets dormant for over 9 years deposited 2,903 ETH to Coinbase, with a cost basis of only $9.9, yielding a 250x return.
On the Hyperliquid platform, whales hold a total position of $8.655 billion, with a long-short ratio of 0.86; shorts at $4.658 billion slightly exceed longs at $3.997 billion. Insider whale Garret Jin holds a total of $102.4 million all in longs, with BTC longs showing an unrealized loss of $17.2 million and a 24-hour loss of $5.08 million. One whale shorted ETH at $2,322 with 5x leverage on a full position, unrealized loss of $20.83 million. Whales firmly long on ETH have an average price of $3,741, now turned from profit to loss with an unrealized loss of $600,000.
In short: whales show clear divergence in longs and shorts on BTC and ETH, with both accumulation and reduction occurring simultaneously. Bottom-fishers have not stopped, and those fleeing are still running. The short-term direction is unclear; do not blindly follow trades—watch on-chain flows for further clues.USDC expands cross-border payment scenarios, benefiting stablecoin application narratives, but has limited transmission to BTC price.
If Samsung Wallet can reduce the time and cost of cross-border transfers, the actual payment demand for USDC may increase, and stablecoins could further transition from trading mediums to everyday payments.
For BTC, the direct buying impact is limited; for ETH, network demand may only arise when payment activities actually use the Ethereum network.
If transactions occur on other blockchains, value capture may also fall within the corresponding ecosystems.
For other major coins, the key depends on product coverage areas, actual transaction volume, and user retention.
It is also necessary to distinguish between stablecoin usage growth and issuer value growth, as the two are not entirely the same.
The expansion of stablecoin applications is a long-term industry signal but cannot be directly equated with a comprehensive bullish outlook for BTC and ETH.
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH $MAGIC #Institutions Continue to Position, Why Does BTC Still Face Pressure?
$BTC net inflow of 4.1 billion in one month, 470 million confiscated coins moved to exchanges.
▪️ Spot ETFs net inflow of about 4.1 billion in the past 30 days
▪️ During the same period, the U.S. government transferred 470 million in confiscated assets into exchange wallets — institutions are buying, the authorities are selling
▪️ Strategy holds 847,666 coins, average cost 75,440, current price 82,947, 10% above cost
▪️ Its two purchase averages are 79,670 and 85,681, a 7.5% cost difference, current price stuck in the middle
▪️ Meanwhile, its stock dropped 52.86% in one year, market cap 59.3 billion, below its coin holding cost
▪️ In the week of 10/9, a net outflow of 681.1 million ended three weeks of inflows
The divergence is not about whether institutions buy or not, but that the word "institution" lumps three groups of people with different directions into one term.
Allocation accounts quarterly, trading accounts daily, official holdings recorded by enforcement progress. The 4.1 billion is the sum of the three groups; the 681 million only reflects the actions of one group. The summed number does not indicate direction.
Direction is for waiting — only above 87,000 (rejected three times) counts as buying returning; losing 80,000 looks toward 78,400. Woke up from sleep, and the short sellers are back in action!
Brothers, yesterday's $MAGIC was like a grand show for the short sellers!
Yesterday it surged onto the top gainers list, with gains exceeding 60% at one point, and the market was cheering. I originally went long and made 6U, but didn’t take profits. Then the market suddenly turned against me, wiping out my profits and triggering a stop loss that cost me 3U.
But I didn’t give up; I immediately switched direction!
After reversing to short, $MAGIC steadily fell, with gains shrinking from over 60% to about 17%. My unrealized profit peaked at 17U, so I quickly took some off the table.
Then this morning when I woke up, wow, it dropped another 8%!
Who can understand this feeling? Yesterday we were partying at the highs, and today it’s time to pay the piper. I set my plan before sleeping, and woke up to find my account had gains again—this is the most satisfying moment in trading!
My view on the altcoin market hasn’t changed: a surge doesn’t mean the strong stay strong, and a brief celebration doesn’t mean it will keep rising.
Many coins are best at grabbing attention with a big bullish candle, then testing those chasing the highs with wild swings. However, altcoins don’t necessarily go to zero just because they fall. What really matters is seeing the trend clearly and managing risk, not just trading based on faith.
Now, about today’s watchlist.
👀 $CAP: It also surged onto the gainers list yesterday, but unlike $MAGIC, it didn’t pull back sharply. I’m putting it on the watchlist first to see how it moves before deciding—no rush to enter.
$CHIP: An old friend is back! Today’s gain reached$AXS Damn it! This $AXS chart is giving me a spike in blood pressure. At the 1.2388 level, the manipulative whales are clearly shaking out the market, with sharp ups and downs and fake spikes. Retail investors just can't hold on and all get thrown off the train. It's purely a capital game with no fundamental support—whoever chases gets hit.
I've been watching all morning, and volume has shrunk drastically. Any rebound is just an opportunity for them to unload. I'm lightly shorting here with a stop loss at 1.2650; if it breaks that, I'll accept the loss and won't hold the position.
Don't foolishly try to catch a falling knife. If you want to follow, check the card below for position control and always set a stop loss. Whether this trade yields any profit depends on whether the whales give you a break.
This content is just my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
👇👇👇🔥 Don't be fooled by a single rebound candlestick! BTC first dropped to 80400, then returned above 82000, currently hovering around 83000. Liquidations, policy news, and ETF fund flows are impacting the market in turn; the market looks lively, but the real trend signals are still not clear enough.
📉 The dilemma for BTC is: sentiment indicators remain greedy, funding rates are close to zero, and ETFs continue to be under pressure. The market has neither fully turned bearish nor has enough strong incremental funds to drive a sustained rise, so intensified volatility is not surprising.
💸 ETH fell from 2778 to 2406 and then rebounded to around 2500. The increase in net supply temporarily pressures deflation expectations. Going forward, besides watching the price, also observe whether ETF funds stop outflows and if actual demand recovers.
🔐 For ZEC, pay attention to high volatility and event risks. After a rapid surge followed by a sharp pullback, the rising share of privacy pools is an indicator to watch but should not be directly equated with guaranteed price increases. Around the NU7 upgrade, the market may also trade expectations in advance.
⚠️ Remember: positive news does not mean immediate price increase, and a rebound does not equal a trend reversal. Controlling leverage, operating in batches, and waiting for confirmation are more practical than chasing the market.
If BTC retests again, will you wait for confirmation to go long or continue to watch? #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 $AXS Damn! The unusual activity in the AXS order book is giving me chills down my spine.
At the 1.2387 level, it's a pure battle of funds, with the manipulative players placing and withdrawing orders like magic tricks. Do you think this is just a shakeout or a real run for the exit? The K-line shows wicks up and down, but volume is quietly increasing—this feeling is too familiar—not good news, but a prelude to a big move.
I don't care if there’s news outside; the technicals are clear: heavy selling pressure above, and the buying can't hold. I've placed a short order, with a stop loss at 1.265; if it breaks that level, I’m out without hesitation.
If you want to follow, don’t rush to go heavy. For this kind of volatile order book, keep your position size controlled. Watch around 1.18 below for any support.
👇👇👇Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $ETH is very small. The near-buy far-sell quote spread is +0.66%, with the first-level pair size around $991; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 10%.
The $SOL mark spread is positive, but the near-buy far-sell first-level quote is inverted. The mark near-far spread is +0.31%, while the near-buy far-sell first-level quote spread is -0.79%.交易员时光大叔｜一名中年开始学交易的散修者，和你一起共修 K 线人生。
黄金周末停盘，今天单聊 BTC。 🔹 级别嵌套
当前级别 4H ｜ 长级别 16H ｜ 次级别 2H 🔹 主升浪方向：向下（主跌浪） 🔹 一个关键位：83,600 今天圈里最值得划线的，就是 83,600——
它是一条多空分水岭： 价格在 83,600 之下 → 只谈反抽（下跌中的短暂回升） 有效突破 83,600 → 才谈反弹（趋势可能反转） 反抽 ≠ 反弹，两个词看着像，操作逻辑天差地别。 🔹 为什么我站"空"？ ① 大级别已经转空
16H 的 DIF、DEA 双双跌破零轴、死叉；8H 同样零轴下死叉。
大级别向下，这是顺势的前提。 ② 83,600 是"墙根"
83,100–83,600 这一段，是 2H / 8H / 4H 的 EMA52 密集压力带。
反抽弹到这里上不去，就是反抽到头——入场位，就是利润空间。 ③ 小级别是"假涨"
4H、2H 虽然出了绿柱、2H 还爬上零轴，但 4H 双线仍在零轴下方。
零轴下方金叉 = 反抽，不是反转——改不了大方向，空单结构占优。 🔹 进场理由（3 条） 大$NEAR perpetual 50x long position, opened at 5.146, currently at 5.243, floating profit +94.24%.
After testing the bottom and stabilizing around 5.146, it directly made a wave of trend-following rally. I followed the trend to go long, with a stop loss set below 5.05. With 50x leverage and a very small position, the movement was stronger than expected, directly pulling up to the 5.243 level, nearly doubling the return!
Moved the stop loss up to 5.146, and now watching if it can break the 5.5 whole number level.
------
$NEAR perpetual 50x long position, opened at 5.146, currently at 5.243, floating profit +94.24%. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH 🔥 On one side is greed, on the other side is capital withdrawal—this is the most conflicted aspect of the current crypto market! BTC rebounded from 80400 to above 82000, then hovered around 83000. The price is back, but buying confidence may not be fully restored.
💰 ETF outflows and weak liquidity are current pressures to watch closely. Funding rates near zero indicate both bulls and bears are waiting for clearer signals; betting on a trend reversal based on a single rebound carries significant risk.
📉 ETH hasn’t escaped pressure either, with a clear retracement from 2778 to 2406. After rebounding to 2500, confirmation is still needed. New issuance exceeding burn volume means net supply still faces upward pressure, so short-term valuation can’t rely solely on the deflation narrative.
⚡ ZEC surged then sharply pulled back. Market attention is shifting to privacy pool data and the NU7 upgrade expectations. But event-driven rallies often trade on anticipation early, and actual implementation may trigger profit-taking.
🧠 My approach is simple: don’t guess tops or bottoms based on news; focus on key price levels, volume, and capital flow. Adjust promptly if the view is wrong—this is more important than stubbornly holding on.
Brothers, which coin do you think has the best chance to lead the direction this round? #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Many people next door are reviewing the biggest black swan event in history on 10.11. $BTC plummeted 11,000-12,000 points. If it were just a single coin pair, it might not have been so shocking; the price could have risen 10,000 points in two days. But the entire network dropped, with altcoins falling 75%-80%, then rebounding, marking the beginning of the bear market. I blew up 400 RMB next door, losing 200 RMB. The main reason for the loss was that the price mechanism was changed next door but had not yet taken effect when the black swan hit. USDE was crushed to 0.65, losing its peg, which increased the liquidation amount. Maybe someone did it deliberately, just like USTC was targeted and spiraled straight to zero. $USDT $USDⓈ $BTC rebounds faster than $ETH after a drop, not because it's stronger
After some consolidation at a high level, both coins broke key support together.
After the drop, $BTC's buying volume returned first, while $ETH just followed along.
What does this price level mean: when the price falls, both sides have people being sold out by the system. The difference lies in who picks up first after the drop. $BTC has more watchers, so buyers come quickly. $ETH waits for $BTC to move first before it dares to move.
How is this calculated: the same amount of money put into $BTC can be executed immediately, but putting it into $ETH requires waiting for a counterparty. In other words, it's not that $ETH's fundamentals are poor, it just lacks its own initial wave of buyers.
So $ETH's rebound is slow, not weak; it's waiting for $BTC to give the signal first.
Next time $BTC pauses, $ETH will likely drag on for a while longer.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC $ETH ETH ETFs have seen outflows for 9 consecutive trading days, possibly because the market is worried that $ETH has entered a profit-taking phase after the previous surge. However, institutional and whale buying has not stopped. It seems that ETF funds and spot flows are not fully synchronized, so it cannot be said that there is no buying pressure for ETH at all. As long as the ETH settlement layer continues to generate real demand, and staking, DeFi, and RWA can bring sustainable value capture to the token, there is no need to panic #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Over the weekend, I took a short position, choosing to try shorting SUI, mainly based on two aspects: market environment and technical structure.
1. Market environment: Recently, the crypto market's liquidity has been weak. Although BTC has rebounded somewhat, the trend reversal has not yet been confirmed, and altcoins still face the risk of further correction.
2. Technical structure: SUI fell from around $1.29 to $1.00, then rebounded but faced resistance around $1.13–$1.15, and has not yet reversed the previous downtrend structure.
3. Trading approach: I chose to short after the rebound was resisted, rather than chasing shorts during the rapid decline.
Going forward, I will watch the support levels near $1.09 and $1.00. If the price stabilizes above the resistance area again, I will reassess the short position logic.
My thoughts:
Shorting does not mean assuming the market will definitely continue to fall, but rather judging whether the downside opportunity is worth the corresponding risk under current conditions.
The most important thing in trading is not predicting right or wrong, but clearly defining entry criteria, invalidation conditions, and exit strategies in advance. Finally, position sizing must be well controlled. The current price is already close to the strong resistance zone of $5.40-$5.60, and the RSI indicator briefly touched the overbought area above 70, indicating a slight possibility of a pullback, but this does not mean a trend reversal.
If you want to try short positions, a safer approach is to wait for a clear weakening signal: the price shows a valid long bearish rejection in the $5.40-$5.60 resistance zone, trading volume shrinks significantly, and the price effectively breaks below the first support level at $5.11. Then, you can try a light short position, with the first target aimed at the $4.40 support zone. After a week of falling, I actually slept better than last week
On October 11, HYPE was reported around $85. On October 5 at close, it was still $94.16, a drop of nearly 10% in a week, 13% below the all-time high of $97.96.
In plain language: after a big rise, it’s taking a breather. Even elevators stop at floors midway, so why can’t a coin pause?
When the price hit $85 on Wednesday night, my palms were sweating, really. I opened and closed my account three times, almost sold. Later I got up, poured a glass of cold water, remembered the price I bought my first $HYPE at, and calmed down.
This morning on the subway, I saw this push notification; an old man glanced at my screen, and I instinctively covered my phone. Not because I was guilty, but because I didn’t want to explain.
Someone asked me how much I saw. I couldn’t say. I only know the platform makes money every day, and I check the income data weekly—that’s enough for me.
Short-term prices are voted on by everyone; long-term value is built day by day by yourself.🔥 Brothers, the market these days is really stubborn! BTC first dropped to 80400, then pulled back above 82000, and now is fluctuating around 83000, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth. Chasing the rise or selling the dip is easy to get hit.
📉 This sharp drop in BTC triggered massive liquidations, yet the fear and greed index remains in the greed zone, and funding rates are close to zero, indicating that sentiment and actual trading power are not fully aligned. Looking at ETF funds under continuous pressure and insufficient liquidity, prices are more prone to violent fluctuations.
💸 ETH is also troublesome, falling from 2778 to 2406, then rebounding near 2500. ETF outflows combined with on-chain burn volumes insufficient to offset new issuance mean net supply pressure still deserves attention. In the short term, don’t just focus on the deflation narrative.
⚡ ZEC is even more volatile, surging then sharply retreating. The privacy pool’s record high proportion is a signal worth watching, but changes in capital flow and the NU7 upgrade on November 5 may also bring risks of expectation realization.
🧠 The most important thing now is not to guess the bottom, but to wait for volume and price confirmation. Brothers, do you favor BTC stabilizing and rebounding, or do you think ETH and ZEC will continue to fluctuate? #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 This week, the crypto market shows clear divergence: Bitcoin demonstrates resilience amid macro headwinds, while Ethereum continues to face pressure.
Bitcoin: Macro pricing, key support under test
Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,780, having dropped to a September low of $80,427 earlier this week. Although market maker Wintermute believes the market is still in the early stages of a bull run and that $82,500 has turned into support, this defense line faced substantial challenges this week.
The core contradiction lies in macro pressure: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.35%, a new high since 2008. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen again, with traditional financial market pressures directly transmitting to crypto assets. The Fed's September meeting minutes show most officials believe further rate hikes may be needed before year-end, further suppressing risk appetite.
Capital flows show divergence: Bitcoin spot ETFs occasionally see net inflows (e.g., $21.12 million net inflow on October 9, led by BlackRock IBIT), but on October 7, there was a massive net outflow of $484.9 million, the largest single-day outflow since June.
Key price levels:
• Upside resistance: $83,000 (ETF average cost zone) → $87,000 (recent multiple resistance points)
• Downside support: $77,000 (on-chain holding cost concentration, real market average) → $74,000 (short-term holder cost base) → $72,000 (200-day moving average)
Forecast market data shows traders believe the probability of Bitcoin falling to $80,000 or below in October is 67%, while the chance of reaching $87,500 is 49%.
Ethereum: Continuous capital outflow, bears controlling the pace
Ethereum is clearly weaker than Bitcoin, currently hovering below $2,600 and having broken the key $2,650–$2,730 range.
The most direct drag comes from ETF capital outflows: Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive trading days, with cumulative losses expanding. On October 8 alone, there was a net outflow of $72.54 million, including $71.12 million from BlackRock ETHA. This contrasts sharply with Bitcoin ETF's relative resilience.
Derivatives market signals bearish sentiment:
• Estimated leverage ratio has dropped to 0.66, a seven-month low, reflecting reduced preference for high-leverage positions
• Binance's cumulative net active ETH trading volume has fallen to negative $1.36 billion, with market sell orders consistently outweighing buy orders
• RSI reads 29.91, MACD shows a large negative value, indicating strong selling pressure technically
On-chain data shows Ethereum's "consumption period" indicator surged to 580 million token-days (9 times the September average), indicating some long-dormant coins are moving, though exchange holdings fluctuate only slightly. Notably, exchange ETH balances increased by over 100,000 coins from October 4 to 8, while BTC balances decreased by about 15,000 coins in the same period, showing clear divergence in capital flows.
Key price levels:
• Immediate support: $2,500 → $2,400 (a weekly close below the 100-week EMA could trigger deeper correction)
• Rebound resistance: $2,700 → $2,800 (breakthrough may trigger short-covering)
Bitcoin: Currently in a macro-driven phase, traditional market trends matter more than internal crypto narratives. $83,000 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line—failure to hold above it warrants caution for a structural pullback toward $77,000 support. If macro pressure eases (e.g., Treasury yields stabilize, midterm election uncertainties fade), $90,000 to $95,000 remains an upside target. Heavy long positions are not advisable amid macro headwinds.
Ethereum: ETF capital outflow is the core suppressing factor; until outflow trends reverse, rebounds are more likely seen as opportunities to reduce positions rather than trend reversals. $2,600 has been lost, with short-term focus shifting to $2,500. If funding rates remain negative but price stabilizes, a short squeeze is theoretically possible but requires spot buying support to form an effective rebound. Current odds do not favor bottom-fishing on the left side.
Macro watchpoints: The Fed's October meeting (likely to hold rates steady) and the November 3 US midterm elections are the most important short-term macro variables. The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has risen again, making it difficult for the crypto market to decouple from traditional risk assets' movements.The most valuable chip for DOGE right now is not in Elon Musk's statements, but in GitHub proposal number 3776: reducing the block reward from 10,000 to 1,000. It has been hanging in the community for over a year, and once substantial progress appears in Q4, the "infinite supply" label that has been pinned for eleven years will be removed.
The math of the proposal is straightforward: annual issuance is cut from 5.26 billion to 526 million, inflation rate is squeezed from 3.4% down to 0.3%, lower than Bitcoin after halving. The change involves only a few parameter lines, no fundraising, no code rewriting, the only cost is community consensus. This is the meaning of a narrative option: zero option fee, and the exercise payoff is an overall switch in the valuation framework.
The market's pricing of DOGE has always included an inflation discount, and this discount is the intrinsic value of the option. If the proposal is shelved, $DOGE continues to operate as usual, no one is harmed; if the proposal passes, "perpetual issuance" is rewritten as "low-inflation payment currency," changing the denominator of the valuation model by an order of magnitude. Core developers remain indifferent so far, miner revenue is the biggest resistance, but this indifference lowers the option's pricing, leaving the asymmetry to holders.
The highlight of Q4 is not the voting result, but whether the discussion can enter the core development agenda—the market never waits until the bell rings to price in.218% unrealized profit, 50x leverage, $GALA small coin. Outsiders see it as explosive, but those inside understand that the more the market moves like this, the less greedy you should be. With 50x leverage on a small coin, a sharp rally can quickly wipe out most of the unrealized profit, leaving no time to react.
Plan to take most profits off the table first, keep the remaining base position to break even or take losses, watching the 0.0023–0.0022 range. It's not that I don't expect further decline, leverage doesn't care. Satisfied with just over 2x profit, taking profits is king, knowing when to take profits is not cowardice.
$BTC $ETH
Trend analysis: After continuous pullbacks, a rebound can happen anytime, sideways consolidation often breeds a reversal. Either it drops to 0.0022 to trap shorts, or it directly rallies to retest the upper resistance. 50x leverage can't withstand a large rebound, the trend is bearish, but the cost-performance ratio is no longer high, defense is the priority #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Brothers, STRK surged 40% in one day, I almost rushed in, but after looking at the contract data, I gave up chasing it.
The reason is simple, the data is terrifying:
Open interest directly jumped from 50 million to 219 million, quadrupling. In 24 hours, short positions liquidated 10.67 million, while long positions only liquidated 4.33 million. This rally was entirely driven by shorts being forced to cover, a typical short squeeze.
Looking further at exchange data, Binance and OKX contract trading volumes are maxed out, but spot volume hasn’t kept up at all; it’s all leveraged funds battling inside.
The most critical point is that on October 15, 128 million STRK tokens will unlock, worth about 7.4 million USD. The unlock happens right after the surge—will the profit holders dump? Nobody can say for sure.
I’m firmly staying out and watching the show, absolutely no chasing the highs. The 0.10 level is too far from the moving average; entering now means any normal pullback will be painful. Brothers with positions should take profits, and those not on board should avoid FOMO.
$STRK #跟着OKX打卡2049
Personal observation, not investment adviceThe valuation debate of DOGE is shifting from "whether it is useful" to "when the ecosystem will be implemented," with the key held by DogeOS.
On September 30, DogeOS opened its public testnet: an EVM-compatible ZK-Rollup application layer that uses DOGE to pay transaction fees. Lending protocols, perpetual contracts, stablecoins, prediction markets, and gaming teams have already developed on it. The Dogecoin Foundation board has set its tone — keeping the ledger pure, with use cases growing on the upper layers.
The issue is timing. The official mainnet launch date has not been announced, and market expectations point to the end of 2026. With just over two months left in Q4, whether the mainnet schedule can be confirmed and whether the OP_CHECKZKP underlying upgrade can proceed will determine if $DOGE can complete the narrative shift from community consensus to application ecosystem before 2027.
If the shift succeeds, the valuation anchor will move from sentiment to locked-up scale and application revenue; if it fails, Shibarium serves as a reference — a layer 2 that has been online for years but whose usage continues to decline. The window is open, but it will not stay open forever. $CORE, don't think that by dressing up in the fancy clothes of "Bitcoin security" and "Satoshi Plus," you can pose as some noble BTCFi savior. Honestly, right now you look more like a down-and-out salesman wearing a borrowed suit, bragging everywhere that you can solve the blockchain trilemma—full of big words but with nothing but a mess in your pockets.
Let's start with your trick of "inheriting Bitcoin's hash power." Sounds cool, right? Miners delegate hash, and you bask in Satoshi Nakamoto's glory. But the reality? You still have to rely on your little DPoS and a bunch of relay nodes to hold the scene. Once the relay has issues, your "non-custodial" instantly turns into a trust assumption. No matter how loudly you boast, it doesn't change the fact that you're just an EVM clone hanging a Bitcoin sign—real Bitcoin players don't even bother to look at you.
Then look at your tokenomics. A hard cap of 210 million, imitating Bitcoin? Laughable. You pull nearly 40% of the supply to drip out slowly over 81 years, calling it "long-term alignment." But the reality is, unlocks, miner rewards, and contributor shares keep flowing out like a faucet, and whenever the market rebounds, it immediately gets smashed to pieces. From over $6 at the start of 2023 down to about two cents now, a drop of nearly 99%, this is not scarcity, it's chronic suicide. Recently, you even had a validator reward bug that minted over 100 million tokens, forcing an emergency hard fork and exchanges to suspend deposits and withdrawals—you call it a "hard cap," but it's really "hard pretending."
Air coins should just air out! The $BTC FTX crash was only 1.6 billion;
312 was 2 billion;
519 was 5 billion.
And on this day last year, October 11, the liquidation amount reached a staggering 19.16 billion USD — the largest liquidation event in crypto history, 16 times the scale of the 2020 COVID crash!
On October 11 last year, the cryptocurrency market plummeted, Bitcoin dropped over 13%, falling below 110,000 USD, altcoins dropped 90% with the screen full of red, many people's years of wealth accumulation vanished overnight. A friend of mine liquidated 8.8 million U and still owed the exchange 17 million U $ETH $OKB Tribute to the 1011 incident, it's been one year, respect the market, those who accept defeat wisely do not perish
Experienced:
The 125 document issued by five ministries in 2013
The 94 in 2017
The 312 in 2020
The 519 in 2021
The 2022 wave of collapses (luna, Three Arrows, FTX, Silvergate... collapses)
The 1011 in 2025
This industry seems to have never learned to respect the market; the K-line only leaves a long lower shadow, and soon everyone forgets it again. Therefore, it is just a continuous cycle of accumulating leverage and liquidating leverage, with incidents merely acting as triggers.
The start of a bull market is the beginning of leverage accumulation. What we need to do is, when the next leverage accumulation reaches its extreme, can you remain unharmed?
Also, the trigger for 1011 was Binance encouraging the cyclical leverage of USDE, causing a collective liquidation wipeout of altcoins on Binance. The prices of altcoins on Binance were far lower than on other exchanges, and no related investigation report has been seen to date.After the BTC and ETH wick spikes, they quickly pulled back. Why am I still bullish on this retracement?
Combining naked K, retracement levels, and cycle analysis, I currently lean towards this being a deleveraging phase within an ongoing uptrend, but further structural confirmation is needed.
This time, BTC did not first break upward to sweep liquidity above; instead, it dropped directly. However, it quickly recovered above 82,000 after the drop. The 80,000–82,000 zone is holding for now, and it hasn't even touched the strong support at 78,000 that I’m watching, with a rebound occurring near a smaller-level support.
ETH retraced down to the 2,398–2,400 support zone I’m monitoring. I chose to enter after seeing the wick spike and quick recovery because the volatility was so fast that the actual execution price differed slightly from the expected entry point.
From the SMC/ICT perspective, if this lower shadow wiped out sell-side liquidity below the previous low and then manages to break the short-term rebound high and hold on the pullback, this drop fits the "liquidity sweep followed by recovery" pattern.
Additionally, open interest (OI) clearly decreased during the decline, indicating a reduction in open contracts, consistent with deleveraging. But a drop in OI doesn’t guarantee a subsequent rise; what really matters is whether the price can hold and if buying pressure can sustain.
Going forward, if the market continues to rebound, I will focus on:
▪️ BTC: around 88,000–90,000
▪️ ETH: in the 2,800–3,000 range
(areas to reduce positions) #CheckInWithOKX2049 The "AI Myth" in Korean Stocks Cools Down: SK Hynix Can't Drive It, Foreign Capital Withdraws, Retail Investors Can't Support
The once-hot AI investment craze is fading, with the Korean stock market taking the lead—KOSPI index has underperformed major global markets in the past month, and semiconductor heavyweight stocks have turned from "AI darlings" into "valuation burdens."
The script is familiar:
2024–2025, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were fiercely chased by global funds due to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), making the Korean stock market the "AI hardware proxy index";
In the second half of 2026, the trend changed: US cloud providers slowed capital expenditure growth, Nvidia's Blackwell delivery schedule adjusted, and the market began to question "where is AI monetization really?";
Korea's problem is that the index is too concentrated—SK Hynix and Samsung account for over 35% of KOSPI's weight, so when they sneeze, the whole market catches a cold.
More trouble lies in the buying structure:
Foreign capital is withdrawing: since October, foreign investors have net sold over 25 trillion KRW of Korean stocks, with hedge funds cutting "Korean stock AI exposure" from overweight to neutral;
Retail investors are holding on: the proportion of Korean retail investors' holdings has hit a historic high, but their pockets are limited, and leverage is approaching warning levels;
Institutions are watching: pension funds and local funds are not in a hurry to take over, waiting for valuations to return to levels where companies can "survive without relying on AI stories." The top gainers list only covers today, but positions still need to review past records
$SUI rose about 6.5% in the past 24 hours, still down about 10% over the week, but up about 53% over the month. The same coin, viewed over different timeframes, feels completely different.
Today's rise is worthy of recognition, but it is not enough to indicate that the weekly decline has ended.
For now, I consider it a strong correction following the earlier rise.
If the upcoming pullback is shallow and it can continue to rise, the outlook can be more optimistic; if this rebound is quickly taken back, short-term expectations should be further lowered.
Being optimistic about the monthly performance and acknowledging the recent weekly weakness can both be true at the same time.
$LINK rose about 12% over the month, fell about 7% over the week, and rebounded about 2.9% in the past 24 hours.
What it needs to prove now is whether the recovery can be sustained, not whether the project name is familiar enough.
Reasons to hold can come from long-term research, but reasons to add positions still need to consider price performance.
If the rise becomes more proactive later, it can be reassessed; if it only rebounds a little and then falls back, control the position for now.
$DOGE rose only about 1.4% over the month, fell about 8.5% over the week, and the slight rebound in the past 24 hours has not significantly changed the phase performance.
At this time, only looking at today's rise can easily lead to overly optimistic expectations.
I will wait for it to gradually recover the weekly losses first.
Familiar coins and familiar rising stories cannot guarantee this market. See continuous improvement first, then consider whether it is worth raising expectations.eth is currently in wave 4 of wave a, with a rebound position at 2500-2540, continuing to complete wave 5 down to 2380-2360$BTC After lunch, I checked and it really touched 83,000
In the morning, it was still hovering around 82,900, stubbornly unable to hit that line. I was thinking to myself that maybe the weekend would just pass like this. But in the afternoon, that bearish candle stubbornly pushed up, inching closer and closer until it reached it. Should I be happy? I stared at the chart blankly for two seconds, my finger hovering over the screen, but in the end, I put it down.
$ETH is also clinging stubbornly above 2500. It dropped as soon as I checked in the morning, but now it’s holding, though weakly. $SOL is still hovering just above 110, like it hasn’t woken up from the weekend, with very thin trading volume.
Finally, on Sunday afternoon, it reached the 83,000 I was hoping for in the morning. Logically, I should feel some emotion, but it’s just a fake happiness—It’s here, so what? The weekend is almost over, and Monday’s open will be a different story. I’m still not changing my position. The closer it gets to these points, the more afraid I am of itching fingers; any move would be a mistake. I’ve seen too many fake breakouts and fake happiness. I’d rather not make a profit than dig a hole for myself on the last afternoon of the weekend. Sideways grinding is exhausting, and suddenly hitting the line is even more so.
Are you adding to your position now? Add back to 1 if yes, 0 if not.Latest News Crypto Security Papertrade lost $1.28 million within 8 hours of launch: Pricing mechanism without Hyperliquid official oracle is like leaving your door unlocked for business, getting cut is not undeserved. Two addresses suspected of manipulating Papertrade prices: dumping about $20 million in a single trade on Hyperliquid, pushing $ETH price by 10 to 20 basis points, then building hundreds of millions in nominal positions on Papertrade to reverse harvest, this loophole is big enough to drive a truck through. High Leverage Risk Papertrade's 1000x leverage liquidation wave: over 75% of traders have been liquidated, with liquidations exceeding $20 million, a total of 61,222 1000x leverage positions established, 73.3% of active addresses have used 1000x leverage, a naked casino data. Papertrade's overall leverage reaches 114x, daily trading volume exceeds $600 billion: TVL about $96 million yet driving $600 billion daily volume, a false prosperity built on leverage, risk will burst at a poke. Market Movement A trader opened a long position with 440,000 $USDC on $STRK and gained $850,000 profit: over 50% increase in one day, precise short-term timing, but such huge profits are hard to replicate, followers often end up holding the bag. Capital Flow This week, US $BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $678.9 million, $ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $542.2 million: both major mainstream ETFs bleeding, institutional funds are withdrawing, don't rush to call the bottom. Token UnlockMore than 6x floating profit, 50x leverage, $ALGO — this return looks exaggerated to outsiders. Reaching this position actually brings clarity; the greater the increase, the more cautious you must be about a quick rebound. Small coins with 50x leverage can have a strong rebound that instantly wipes out most of the profit, with very little reaction time.
Plan to take a large portion off the table, keep the remaining position with a break-even stop loss, and consider the base position in the 0.11-0.105 range. It’s not that I don’t expect further dips; principal and realized profit are the core. A 6x return is already considerable, and timely exit is not about being bearish to the end, but about respecting leverage.
$BTC $ETH
Trend analysis: With huge floating profits, rebound momentum can appear at any time. A quick rebound after a slow decline is a signal of a trend change. Two possible paths ahead: continue to dip to 0.105 to induce shorts, then quickly pull back; or directly rebound with volume to test resistance near 0.128. 50x leverage can’t withstand a large rebound. Although the downtrend structure remains, the risk-reward ratio has worsened, so defense is prioritized. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SUI
SUI rises over 3% but stalls in the middle range, how much of the lead can it hold?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 1.0728—1.14 USDT, change +3.07%, trading volume about 15.36 million USDT.
In the same window, recovery is stronger than SOL, but the observed quotes have not controlled the entire upper half space. The relative performance of the public chain and real user demand need to be separated; short-term elasticity may also come from an imbalance of buying and selling or a temporary easing of previous selling pressure.
Next time SOL falls back, if SUI first breaks below 1.0728, the relative defense explains a downgrade; if it retests the low and rises again close to 1.14, then observe the continuity of the lead.$BTC
Attention! A whale has quietly placed a $37.62 million sell wall above 😯
At $83,425, there is $20.48 million, and at $83,500, there is another $17.14 million.
These two large orders are very close to each other and not far from the current price; the first resistance for the rebound is right here.
Looking at the order book, these two large sell orders are concentrated within a range of less than $100. When Bitcoin rebounds in the short term, it will have to face this selling pressure directly.
Next, focus on whether the spot buy orders can hold firm.
If the volume increases and this sell wall is directly eaten up, firmly breaking above $83,500, then the upper space has a chance to open up.
But if multiple attempts fail to break through, the short-term price will still be suppressed.
Also, a reminder that whales can withdraw their sell orders at any time, so you can't judge the market just by looking at the orders; what really matters is whether there are actual trades.
This $37.62 million sell order is a checkpoint set by the whale.
Once Bitcoin powerfully sweeps through $83,500, this sell wall might instead become the starting point for a new round of upward movement ✨ $STRK surged 50% in a single day, breaking through $0.1 to hit a new high for the year! It has skyrocketed 379% since the low point in August!
What exactly happened? Understand the surge logic and potential hidden risks in one article 👇
🔥 Core catalyst: L2 turning into L1?
To accelerate the "post-quantum security" upgrade, StarkWare's CEO proposed transforming Starknet into an independent L1. This grand narrative directly ignited market sentiment!
📊 Leverage frenzy, whales feasting
▪️ Futures open interest surged 53%, derivatives trading volume reached 5 times that of spot!
▪️ A certain whale went 3x long on 24.42 million tokens, with a 24h unrealized profit exceeding $1.05 million!
⚠️ 3 major risks to consider before FOMO:
1. Still conceptual: The L1 transformation is only an executive-level idea and has not yet entered the substantive implementation or governance approval stage.
2. Selling pressure emerging: On-chain analysis shows STRK has shifted from "net outflow" on exchanges to "net inflow," with smart money and profit-taking funds flowing out.
3. False prosperity: Up to 73.5% of the trading volume is suspected wash trading, casting doubt on genuine buying demand!
Summary: The narrative is enticing, but implementation is still far off. Short-term leverage squeezes will cause extreme volatility; do not blindly chase the highs! Shut out by the index? DOGE tore down the door twelve years ago
CME and CF Benchmarks recently launched a new crypto index with 10 slots. All coins ranked by market cap behind DOGE got in—except DOGE itself. The reason: institutional custody requirements and protocol utility standards not met.
In plain language: DOGE has no corporate entity, no foundation seal, so it can't fill out the institutional form.
But that’s exactly what makes it most valuable. A standard designed for "coins with issuers" obviously can’t accommodate an old chain without an issuer. DOGE has no backer, so no one can choke it; no headquarters, so no one can surrender on its behalf. What the form can’t hold is precisely what no one can take over.
Look at what it’s done without official approval: twelve years without missing a single block, transfers confirmed within a minute, fees just a few cents, and millions of holders worldwide. In 2014, when I revealed my holdings at an offline meetup, people laughed out loud. Eleven years later, most of those people have exited, but DOGE is still front and center.
An index is an institution’s shopping list; $DOGE is users’ pocket money. It’s not on the list, but it’s in the wallet.
The door belongs to them. DOGE never intended to enter twelve years ago; it simply tore down the door and made its own path.$XPL has broken out of a falling wedge on the 4h chart.
Price is around 0.086 and starting to rise. Long for continuation above the wedge. If the momentum holds, the next zone is $0.10–$0.125.
Invalidation: 4h close below approximately 0.077.STRK has really been strong these past two days. I just checked the price at 0.10619, with a high reaching 0.123, up about 49% in the past day.
Lately, the talk has been about quantum resistance, and Starknet considering moving from L2 to L1. This STRK used to be called a king-level token, but look how much it has fallen. The hype back then was huge, but now the candlestick charts show how miserable it is.
Now all these trash altcoins try to create some positive news—if not one thing, then another. Either buybacks or dividends, dividends or riding the AI hype, or just trying to pump it up. In my eyes, they’re still garbage projects; there’s way too much crap in the crypto space.
I don’t think anyone really believes in altcoin good news. Honestly, 99% of altcoin positive news is just luck if you happen to make money. If you really hold with a big-picture mindset, you’ll definitely be crying out loud later![Old Leek Observation] $LUMIA
LUMIA suddenly surged these past two days, and the most striking aspect is not the price increase but the trading volume. Previously, the daily trading volume was only a few million USD, but on October 10th, it suddenly expanded to over a hundred million USD, with the price once surging above $0.15. This level of volume change indicates a complete shift in capital attention, but it cannot yet be directly concluded that it is due to accumulation by a major holder.
The market is also re-focusing on Lumia's previous buyback proposal: planning to repurchase the remaining HyperNode rewards at $0.09. However, this proposal is not the confirmed reason for this surge, and whether the buyback will be executed depends on official follow-up.$USELESS Perpetual 10x long position, opened at 0.17587, now at 0.18538, floating profit +54.07%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips are ready to rally. A single volume-increasing bullish candle directly lifts the price from 0.17587, a typical breakout signal, go long, not short. 10x leverage, stop loss at 0.172. The trend moves steadily upward, giving no comfortable entry points.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half of the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 0.182 to let profits run. If 0.19 breaks out with volume, continue holding; if it fails to break, exit all positions. $MAGIC $STRK #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The market looked ugly green this week, but I switched my takeout from fifteen yuan to twenty-five yuan.
Not bragging. On October 8th, SOL hit a low of 105.76, dropping more than 5 points in one day. I was staring at my phone with trembling hands, still checking the market at 2 a.m. My wife turned over and asked why I wasn’t sleeping yet, and I said, "Soon."
By the close on the 10th, $SOL bounced back to 110.4, up more than 1 point. I don’t understand support or resistance levels; I just know it’s been at 60 yuan this year, so why panic at this price?
Honestly, that night on the 8th, I really thought about selling half. My finger hovered over the sell button, but then I remembered I don’t even know how to read technical charts, and if I sold, I wouldn’t know when to buy back. So I locked my screen and went to the kitchen for a glass of cold water.
Now my move is simple: do nothing. Days without checking the market outnumber the days I do. $XRP perpetual 100x short position, opened at 1.4032, currently at 1.3952, floating profit +57.01%.
The logic is simple: repeatedly pushing up near 1.4032 but failing to break through, each rebound is quickly hammered down, the upper shadows are getting longer, and buying pressure is clearly exhausted. Wait for a volume breakout below the key support, confirm on the right side, then enter short. 100x leverage, stop loss at 1.41. This drop was extremely smooth, giving no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 1.398 to lock in profits. If the price breaks below 1.38 with volume, can hold a bit longer. $DOGE $BTC #跟着OKX打卡2049 If this rebound is just postponing bad news, then is it more like a probe before a launch or the last breath before distribution? This is the question I most want to ask myself in my 72nd day of dollar-cost averaging notes. The market's answer is not enthusiastic. BTC is moving sideways around 83068, repeatedly pressured at 83174 above, with 81801 as the nearest support. The price repeatedly approaches resistance and then retreats; neither buyers nor sellers gain an advantage. This tug-of-war usually means the direction has not been truly priced in yet. ETH is back to 2509, supported near 2480, resisted at 2523, with a weak rebound that looks more like a correction than a reversal. SOL is at 110.41, supported at 107.51, resisted at 110.61, just poking out from the adjustment, but its recovery strength is clearly weaker than the other two. The signals I see are actually divided into two layers. - Momentum side: ETH and SOL only show slight warming, no volume breakout at key levels, indicating short-term buying is still probing. - Risk side: BTC spot ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months; such events usually don't end with a single-day dump but change risk appetite in the following days. - Sentiment side: FOMC minutes show most officials favor another rate hike, meaning the market's previous expectations for easing pace may be repriced downward. This is why I don't want to just focus on price this time. ETF net outflows and rate hike tendencies appear simultaneously; the market is actually trading "money becoming more expensive, and buying interest thinning." Under this combination, BTC is more likely to be treated as$BTC $ETH Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for nine consecutive days, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing, sparking renewed market debate. Since the end of September, the cumulative net outflow has approached $700 million, with $542 million just last week, marking the worst weekly performance since January this year.
Some believe institutions are abandoning ETH, while others see this as normal portfolio rebalancing. However, data shows that ETF outflows account for about 27% of the asset size decline, with the remainder more related to the drop in ETH price. Therefore, it is not accurate to conclude that institutions are completely bearish on Ethereum solely based on continuous ETF outflows.
From a technical perspective, ETH is currently oscillating around 2500, with clear resistance from moving averages above, and the short-term trend remains weak. The key support level to watch next is 2400; if it holds, there is still a chance for a rebound and recovery. If it breaks down effectively, further attention should be paid to support around 2300.
Personal view from Nuonuo: The short-term market may still need to fluctuate repeatedly, so it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish for now. Whether 2400 can hold will be crucial in judging the next move. If it holds, wait for rebound opportunities; if it fails, patiently watch around 2300.
The more uncertain the market, the more important it is to control position size and remain patient. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The inflow situation of Bitcoin ETF next week is very important.
Yesterday, the net outflow ended and there was even a slight inflow.
This upward wave from 8K includes short covering and short liquidations.
Open Interest (OI) has clearly decreased, and the spot CVD is currently relatively stable.
The Coinbase premium index shows
that the current interest from the US side is not strong enough.
Institutions are waiting for the CPI and PPI data on the 14th and 15th before making plans.
The weekly close this week needs close attention.
Liquidity is relatively low over the weekend, so there is no substantial reference.
Ethereum's volume has been weak during the rebound these past two days.
During the decline phase, volume actually increased,
indicating that selling pressure in the market has not been cleared.
The rebound is only a technical correction, not a trend reversal.
This must be kept clear.
Most likely, it will retest the four-hour moving average area later.
After that, this rebound will basically be over.
The next step, barring surprises, will be a direct drop to around 2350.
If it doesn't reach this level,
the current downward structure will not be considered complete Brothers
On the 1-hour chart, first watch 83,000–83,432. If it can't break through, it will still oscillate; if it really breaks, then look at 84,000–84,400. There's resistance above on the daily chart too, with the 10 EMA at 83,590 and the 20 SMA at 84,371, so don't be too optimistic if it rebounds to these levels.
Below are 82,400, 82,200, 81,700, with the key level at 80,308. If this is lost, 80,000 is also in danger. The major structure is still intact, with the 50 EMA at 79,865 and the 200 SMA at 71,918 supporting below. MACD is bearish, but momentum is retracing, so neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand.
On 10/14 Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released. This is the biggest variable this week, determining whether rate hike expectations will heat up or cool down. The FOMC on October 27–28 is the pricing watershed. There's also the Beige Book early Thursday; earnings reports from TSMC and ASML. Trump tariffs and geopolitical news could intervene at any time.
To the upside, it depends on whether spot buying returns; first stand above 85,500 before considering further. Above that is 87,100–95,900, the largest annual liquidation zone. To the downside, if 80,300 breaks, the next reference area is around 75,000. CryptoQuant mentioned the “short-term traders’ unrealized profit 21-month peak,” meaning that batch of profit-taking hasn't fully exited yet
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验