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Today’s BTC, ETH & ENA buying update:
BTC: Around $83.6K, down ~1.5%. Better to buy in small portions on pullbacks rather than chase.
ETH: Around $2,675; $2,750–$2,800 is the key resistance zone.
ENA: Around $0.27–$0.29 area; momentum has been strong recently, but today is weaker. Also, ~17.2M ENA tokens are scheduled to unlock Oct. 5, which can add selling pressure.
Trading approach: BTC/ETH = gradual entries; ENA = higher risk, wait for confirmation rather than full-size buying. *Latest Bitcoin News｜Evening of September 28, Chinese Version*
*Current Price: $BTC $84,132 | $ETH $2,710 | $SOL $124*
*1. Big Money Movements*
- *#BTC Spot ETF Weekly Inflows Hit Highest in Nearly a Year*: Last week *$2.4 billion*, 7-day total $2.84 billion, highest since October 2024, yearly total flipped from -$5.8 billion to *+$800 million*. But *note the decline*: Monday $99.9M → Friday *-$11.8M first outflow*, institutions waiting for Friday's Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)
- *$SOL ETF Breaks Record*: Just launched, *weekly $188 million all-time high*, with Bitwise BSOL accounting for $128 million (68%), Friday single-day $86.67 million also a new high. Now SOL ETF total assets *$1.5 billion*. 13 consecutive weeks of inflows, $447 million in past 30 days
- *Strategy Bought Again*: Last week bought *1,665 units, average price $85,681, spent $142.7 million*, total holdings *847,666 units, average price $75,437*. The money came from selling MSTR stock, not profits
*2. Why Didn’t the Price Rise After Buying? You Asked Before*
One company + ETF bought a total of $2.5 billion, but the price plunged with a $180 million+ spike at $83,174. The reason: The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 2007 high, and Capital Economics says this round of sell-off is blamed on interest rate expectations, not on AI bond issuance or fiscal policy.
This explanation sounds familiar to me. I've seen before that price fluctuations are entirely attributed to "changes in expectations," but no one can clearly explain the expectations themselves.
Reilly's reason is rising oil prices and a strong US economy, and he also predicts the yield will drop to 4.25% by the end of 2027.
From near the 2007 high back down to 4.25%, there's more than a year in between, but the material doesn't explain what will realize this decline.
I tend to think this is more like finding a plausible explanation for the current high level. The end of 2027 is still far away; by then, who will remember today's prediction.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元 $HYPE $VIRTUAL Long
Entry: 0.8129–0.8235 •
Stop Loss: 0.7638
TP1: 0.8591 | TP2: 0.8959 | TP3: 0.9327
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTC现货ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
The leader has something to say
The Trump administration is planning to push an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all participate, aiming to cooperate between government and private enterprises to spread the dollar stablecoin overseas. The plan is still under discussion, and cooperating companies and target markets have not been decided.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting opinions on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are also beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not issuing coins, but the extension of dollar hegemony. The more popular stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for the dollar and short-term US Treasuries. Tether alone holds 114.96 billion USD in US Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term US Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases of USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlement to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, making the underlying demand for stablecoins more solid. But in the short term, there is no direct boost to coin prices.
My large BTC position at 82,800+ is still on the table, with a stop loss at 81,000 and a target of 86,000 to 88,000. This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are key; I won't hold heavy positions before the data. No matter how big the stablecoin narrative is, it can't change the reality that the Fed just raised rates. No chasing highs or panic selling, waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.🚨 $FIL NV29 is going live on Calibration Testnet.
Solstice (FIP-0118) is scheduled for activation on Sept. 28 at 12:59:30 UTC.
Lotus, Forest and Curio have already rolled out upgrade-ready releases.
A key network upgrade to watch for Filecoin. 👀
#FIL #Filecoin #Crypto$BTC IS AT A CRITICAL DECISION ZONE MACRO DATA IS NEXT
BTC pulled back from $86K into the $81K–$82K LPS zone.
Hold $81K–$82K → $90K+ stays on watch.
Lose $81K → $74K–$76K FVG comes into focus.
This week: PCE + U.S. jobs data could drive Fed expectations and BTC volatility.
No prediction. Watch the reaction..
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus $SNDK news pressure suppresses, bullish momentum exhausted!
Today's downside target is 1600
1. Moving average structure
Daily price breaks below EMA5 and EMA10 short-term moving averages, moving averages turn from support to resistance. Previous rebound highs gradually decrease, rebound strength continues to weaken, forming a fluctuating downward structure. Strong resistance above at 1750, unable to retake this level, bearish trend continues. Primary downside target is 1600.
2. Indicator and capital signals
KDJ death cross diverges downward, K value 38.4, J value 3.6, bearish force continues to release; RSI6 falls back to 41.23, not yet deeply oversold, more downside space remains.
Open interest slightly declines, high-level longs gradually reduce positions, volume shrinks during rebound phase, expands on decline, selling pressure continues to appear.
3. Market logic
After falling from the 2382 high, the rebound is a bear market corrective rally, not a new main uptrend. After the rebound ends, bears retake control; as long as the 1750 resistance is not broken, the downtrend continues, targeting a test of 1600 support.
✅ Core idea: The rebound is a shorting opportunity, target 1600; if volume surges and price breaks above 1750, the bearish logic fails.
#特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 Your breakdown is very accurate. Let me cross-check the details from the 8-K released today:
*Number Reconciliation:*
*Only 1,665 coins were bought this week (your figure of 1666 is basically correct)*, not 847,666 coins.
- Average price *$85,681*, spent *$142.7 million*.
- Total holdings *847,666 coins* is a cumulative number, average price *$75,437*, total cost *$63.95 billion*.
- Now $BTC is at $84,132, just enough to show an unrealized loss for this week’s purchase, with unrealized gains left at about $6.6 billion.
*Where the money came from, you were right — not from profits, but from issuing stock:*
- This week sold *1.469 million shares of $MSTR*, cashing out *$246.2 million*.
- Of that, $142.7 million was used to buy BTC, the remaining $103.5 million plus $48.1 million of own cash = *$151.7 million used to repurchase the company’s preferred stock STRC*.
- There is still $1.884 billion worth of MSTR on the books that can be issued further.
So it is: *Shareholders buy MSTR → Company gets the money → Half buys BTC, half repurchases preferred stock to pay dividends*, this is the money proposed by #Strategy to pay daily dividends on preferred stock.
*A company keeps buying but the price doesn’t go up, who is taking the buy orders?*
This is the core of your question, three parties taking the shares:
*1. Miners + long-term holders sold when it was bought*
It bought at an average of $85,681, higher than the current price of $84,132.Strategy just added 1,665 $BTC , lifting its total to 847,666 $BTC as of September 27, 2026.
The bigger signal may actually be the $152 million STRC repurchase, made while the company still holds $6.02 billion in USD assets.
Buying Bitcoin and buying back preferred stock at the same time suggests a treasury actively managing both conviction and balance sheet strength.The news continues to improve
Chainlink officially released CCIP 2.0 today. The core is not just a simple "cross-chain upgrade," but it starts allowing enterprises to participate in verifying cross-chain transactions themselves: enterprises can run their own Cross-Chain Verifier (CCV), or connect to third-party verification agencies like Infosys and Nethermind; at the same time, compliance controls such as KYC, AML, and sanctions screening are added.ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $690 million last week, but the coin price fell from a weekly high of about 2805 back to around 2695. The institutional buying and the market price increase do not match at all.
I think the situation is very clear: last week there was still a net outflow of about $140 million, but on Friday this week it flipped to a net inflow of about $690 million. BlackRock's ETHA alone contributed about $326 million, pushing the cumulative net inflow to about $13.9 billion, with a scale of about $17.8 billion.
However, the spot price only ground down from about 2776 to about 2695, the weekly candle still dropped nearly 3%, and the single-day inflow of about $87 million on Friday did not immediately push the price up.
Simply put: the money in the box is coming in, but the on-exchange price is first digesting the profit-taking near the weekly high. Don't take ETF inflows as a direct buy signal.
For now, I will just keep an observation position and not chase this move; if it fails, watch if the daily chart can hold near the weekly low around 2620, or if volume picks up to retake around 2800.
What do you think? Will this wave grind down to 2600 before continuing, or will the inflows directly push it to break through 2800?
#ThisWeekKeyNonFarmAndPCEData #USIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditions $ETH $AAVE $LINKHYPE's unlock tomorrow is something I really think we should keep an eye on.
Recently, Hyperliquid has been quite strong, with no shortage of trading volume, revenue, or hype, and HYPE has become one of the few coins in this cycle that truly reflects its fundamentals.
But there's something unavoidable tomorrow:
About $900 million worth of HYPE is about to unlock, accounting for approximately 4.46% of the current circulating supply.
This scale is no longer a small unlock that can be casually ignored.
And there's an interesting signal today:
A wallet associated with Wintermute has currently piled up over $100 million in short positions on Hyperliquid, with ETH as the largest position, and also shorting SOL and HYPE.
Of course, big players shorting doesn't necessarily mean HYPE will definitely drop, and market makers' positions shouldn't be simply interpreted as bearish.
But what I think is truly worth watching next is:
Whether the fundamental buying pressure can absorb the potential selling pressure brought by the unlock.
Many coins in the past had problems of no revenue, no users, and constant unlocking every day.
HYPE is different.
What it may need to prove now is something else:
Whether a truly profitable project can withstand nearly $900 million in new tokens.Opened $BTC short at 83,716 and closed at 82,782. 🎯 Captured 934 points with a reported 4,637 profit. I initially expected the rebound to test the 84.4K moving-average resistance, but the market turned weaker than anticipated. In moments like this, waiting stubbornly for the perfect level can mean missing the entire move—or entering too late when momentum has already faded. Contract entry points are fixed. Traders must stay flexible. $BTC $ETHFI $ZEC #MicronEarningsAhead #PCEAndPayrollsWeek *Latest Bitcoin News | September 28 Chinese NFP Preview Edition*
*Current Price $BTC $84,132 | $SOL $124 | $ETH $2.71K*
*1. Big Money Situation*
BTC spot ETF weekly inflow *$2.4B*, 7-day $2.84B, highest since October 2024, full year turned from a loss of -$5.8B to a profit of *+$800M*.
But inflows are fading: Monday $999M → Friday *-$11.8M first outflow*, indicating *waiting for NFP*, institutions are cautious.
*2. The NFP reaction order you mentioned is confirmed today*
*$SOL $120 highest beta moving first*: today spiked to $123.45 triggering over $9,910 long orders, weakest but first to rebound.
*$BTC $84.2K sets direction*: now $84,132 holding $84K, early spike to $83,174 stopped out then recovered, only reclaiming $85K counts as strong.
*$ETH $2.7K follows BTC*: only breaking $2.75K counts as catching up.
*$OKB $121 defense*: $120 key support, resistant to decline.
*$RE $0.47 last*: waiting for RWA rotation.
*3. Key Levels*
Support: *$BTC $84K → $82,963 → $80,172*
*$ETH $2.66K → $2.52K | $SOL $120 → $112*
Resistance:7u challenge to reach 100 million!
Day 38
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3700u
Survival cost: 2600u
Available funds: 1100u+
Didn't expect Mid-Autumn Festival to be really expensive, all kinds of expenses consumed 600 USD. This is my precious principal, and it feels like I haven't done anything. Available funds are only 1100 USD now, National Day is coming soon, feeling so anxious!
Maybe this is what they call survival cost, it’s tough before breaking through the survival cost line.
1. Only $BNB left in spot;
2. Long position on Bitcoin $BTC still held, key level around 82,500, watching if this level can hold;
3. Continuously monitoring $ONDO and ENA;
4. PONS fundamentals have been poor recently, income in the last 24 hours only 180,000 USD, continuously declining, will watch again when fundamentals improve;
5. And then I’m full of meme coins, currently none are in ambush, but a few have been ambushed, crying in pain.
Current overall approach: writing content, contracts, and meme.
Strategy still uses a barbell approach, doing mainstream top assets on one side and pure meme on the other.Can be changed to a style more like "Live Trading Diary + Market Review," keeping the storyline of the 30U revival version, while making the emotions and market logic more complete:
Writing
Rebirth: Trading in High School Campus 💻｜30U Revival Version
Brothers, today I really can’t hold it in anymore... 😮💨
$ETH weakened steadily from around 2724 in the morning session, any rebound was immediately suppressed. I didn’t hold the short position near yesterday’s high, and today I kept thinking about "bottom fishing for longs," but ended up stopping out repeatedly, getting more and more chaotic.
$BTC didn’t give many chances either, after a surge near 85,000 it kept falling back, now around 82,000. From the short-term structure, 85,000 has become a clear resistance area; to turn bullish again, the price must first reclaim that level with volume confirmation.
The biggest lesson today isn’t how much the market fell, but that after consecutive stop losses I was still rushing to find opportunities.
The worst thing in trading isn’t making one wrong call, but speeding up trading frequency after being wrong, dragging your emotions into the market.
I still hold one $ETH long position, watching to see if an effective rebound appears. If not, I’ll follow the plan and won’t stubbornly hold on just to "break even."
📌 Current funds: 50U
Still in high school, trading live while studying. Losses are really tough, but if I keep going, what I want to learn isn’t "how to double in a day," but:
Position control, reducing impulsive trades, considering stop loss first, then profit. 📉 $BTC｜Breaking below $80,000—is that the real "entry opportunity"?
I'm waiting for this round of pullback.
🌍 Oil prices are rising, U.S. Treasury yields are climbing, the Middle East situation is tense again, and macro pressures are increasing.
Under this pressure, BTC has finally started to feel the strain, with signs of a downward breakout becoming more apparent.
📊 The rapid surge from a few days ago hasn't been fully corrected yet; the price is still relatively high, so I'm indeed hesitant to chase the rally.
🧠 The current position is a bit awkward:
It's uncomfortable to chase the highs, but bottom-fishing lacks confirmation.
👀 Will $80K become the next key area truly worth watching?
🎯 Rather than guessing the bottom, it's better to wait for price confirmation.Current price 0.5142, decline -6.81%
✅5-minute capital flow breakdown (21:35–21:40)
- Overall: Net outflow of 13,800 WLD, outflow > inflow, short-term selling pressure dominates
- ✅Bull inflow (green): Extra-large orders are the main buying force, with a single push of 96,800, large orders 30,200; medium and small orders have much less entry volume
- ❌Bear outflow (red): Medium orders sell off the most, outflow 78,100; extra-large orders sell 66,200, large orders sell 23,000, small orders also have some fleeing
👉Simple summary:
There are big players making extra-large bottom-fishing buys, but on the other side, many medium orders are continuously selling off. Bulls and bears are tugging and fighting, with short-term bears slightly dominant, and capital slightly flowing out.
The daily net capital chart below has shown large net outflows for several consecutive days. Today's long red bar indicates that today's outflow volume remains significant, and the overall trend pressure of capital flight persists.Yes, you caught the key point — *Registration ≠ Opening, there's still the National Bank's gate in between.*
*Breaking down the Belarus situation:*
*1. Where are we now:*
Two companies have registered in the High-Tech Park (HTP), these are the country's *first batch*, and as you said, the names have not been disclosed.
But according to the *Decree No. 19* signed by Lukashenko on January 16, this is just the first step. 8815
*You are completely right about the trigger conditions:*
- Step one: Obtain HTP resident status
- Step two: *Still need to pass National Bank certification and enter the registry*
- Not in the registry = cannot open for business 8815
The National Bank itself said the first opening will take at least 6 months, and the certification time is indeed not given.
*2. You are also right about the easy-to-misread parts:*
Crypto banks *do not issue new coins*.
According to Decree No. 19: they are *joint-stock companies that can combine token business + deposit/loan, payment services together*, it’s tokens added into banks, not banks issuing tokens. 8815
And it’s *dual regulation*: they must comply with capital, risk control, anti-money laundering rules for non-bank financial institutions, and also follow the decisions of the HTP supervisory board.
*3. What coins can they handle:*
The National Bank’s deputy governor said the first batch will support about *26 coins, explicitly including $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, TON*, so whether privacy coins like $ZEC can be included is still uncertain. 🚨 BTC IS AT A CRITICAL MID-TERM DECISION POINT.
I’m watching $BTC closely here.
BTC closed above the May high, which is technically bullish. But there’s one problem: we’re less than 1% away from the high, and the breakout still looks almost flat. 👀
Historically, after reclaiming the 50-week MA, BTC has often seen strong follow-through over the next 1–2 weeks. This time, the move looks noticeably weaker.
Rising yields + seasonal Q4 concerns are keeping pressure on the market.
#DailyOrbit 表面都在涨，真正被接住的却没几个 你是不是也把反弹当成了全面回暖？ 先戳破一个容易误判的点：这两天看着到处都在动，半导体却集体走弱，黄金白银也在回吐，BTC、ETH 和一批山寨同时被压着。热闹是表面的，承接是另一回事。 我盯板块强弱盯了一整周，最直观的感受是，钱没有消失，只是变得更挑。它不再愿意为"故事"付溢价，只肯往确定性更高的地方缩。Micron 在 9 月 30 日盘后出财报，这个节点很关键，它会影响科技股的风险偏好，而科技股的情绪又会顺着传导到加密这边。 BTC 短期参考在 82K 附近，十月更深的位置看 77K 一带。ETH 短期在 2.4K 附近，十月落在 2K 到 2.1K 区间。这些数字不是预言，是等价格行为来确认的坐标。 偏多的路径也存在：如果 Micron 财报稳住科技情绪，超跌的优质山寨会先反弹，BTC 守住关键位后，ETH 补涨的弹性反而更大。但风险没被充分看见——半导体的弱势如果延续，风险偏好会继续收缩，山寨的反弹很可能只是脉冲，接不住第二波。 真正在交易的，不是降息叙事，而是"谁能在缩量里活下来"。板块强弱比大盘方向更值得盯。 先看承接，再谈方向。 不构成任Your calculation is completely correct — this is why many people got liquidated at the $83,174 spike.
*Breaking down this trade:*
*Position: 99.7 $BTC x $83,007 = $8.275 million ≈ the $8.31 million you mentioned*
*Principal:*
40x leverage = 2.5% margin rate
$8.275 million / 40 = *$206,800 ≈ the $208,000 principal you mentioned*
Borrowed = $8.275 million - $206,800 = *$8.068 million*
*What does the $34,900 unrealized profit mean to him:*
$34,900 / $206,800 principal = *+16.8%*
But in terms of price: $34,900 / $8.275 million position = *+0.42%*
If BTC rises just 0.42%, his principal gains 16.8% — that’s 40x leverage
Conversely:
If BTC drops 1% = $83,007 → $82,176, loss is $82,700
$82,700 / $206,800 = *principal loses 40% directly*
A 2.5% drop results in liquidation to zero.
So your statement *1% price move = 40% principal move* is exactly right.
*Why his total position is $127 million and he’s still holding open:*
This kind of whale isn’t focused on the $34,900 unrealized profit, but is betting that $BTC will hold $84K and then go to $90K,James Reilly attributes this round of U.S. Treasury sell-off to interest rate expectations, not AI bond issuance, nor fiscal concerns. This attribution is more important for long-term holders than the market itself.
The 10-year yield has approached the 2007 high, and his reason is rising oil prices and a strong U.S. economy. If valid, the pressure on risk assets comes from growth and inflation, not credit issues.
This means $BTC is facing not a liquidity crisis, but a valuation compression due to prolonged higher interest rates. In the transmission chain, the first to be affected passively are high-duration assets, not cash.
He expects yields to return to 4.25% by the end of 2027. Watch this forecast against the divergence with oil prices: if oil prices fall but yields do not, the attribution should be overturned.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC 🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT PROBLEMS
$BTC provides value with a digital settlement layer that operates continuously, without being tied to banking schedules or a single jurisdiction.
$ETH offers developers a common environment for building financial primitives that other applications can reuse, combine, and extend.
$SOL targets use cases where transaction latency becomes part of the product itself, from trading interfaces to highly interactive applications.I value Ethereum settlement but do not blindly trust the fastest confirmation animations.
Clicking send and immediately seeing success in the wallet gives the impression that the transaction is complete. However, a transaction entering a block, receiving more confirmations, and reaching finality are not exactly the same states. For small $ETH users, these differences may not be obvious; for businesses requiring reliable settlement, they affect when assets are delivered.
Ethereum's proof of stake achieves finality through validator voting. Its significance lies in making it economically very costly to alter confirmed history, not just in shortening the waiting time shown on the interface. Speed is valuable, but the ability to reliably depend on transaction results is equally valuable; you cannot choose only the easiest metric to promote.
Different applications choose waiting methods based on their risk tolerance. Low-value interactions may seek instant feedback, while large settlements prioritize certainty. Mixing these two needs into a single performance ranking makes it difficult to accurately evaluate the infrastructure. A truly good network should let users clearly understand what kind of guarantees they are receiving.
I have long followed ETH because its settlement capability can support increasing collaboration, but I do not consider all confirmation animations as final delivery. When evaluating upgrades, we should also ask how speed, security, and fault recovery change. Faster is welcome, but reliability must not be omitted behind the numbers. The financial system ultimately bears not only the cost of waiting but also the cost of erroneous judgments.The hourly chart completed a rebound from the low point of 82606, with the price standing above the SuperTrend line, and the short-term B long signal remains valid.
However, the rebound is a recovery after a major drop and has not yet shown strong bullish momentum: there is still obvious resistance above, and the rebound process is not smooth.
Key levels
1. First resistance above: 84571 (resistance level given by SuperTrend)
• Only if the 1-hour candlestick closes firmly above 84571 will the short-term rebound truly open up space, providing a chance to challenge the previous high of 85199.
• If it pushes up near 84500 but fails to rise and closes with a long upper shadow, it is very likely to fall back again.
2. Short-term defensive support: 83105 (SuperTrend line)
• This is the lifeline of this hourly-level strategy.
• ✅ Holding this line: short-term rebound structure is preserved.
• ❌ 1-hour close below 83105: short-term long signals become invalid, the rebound ends, and it is highly likely to retest the low point of 82606.
3. Strong bottom support: 82606.2
Once this low point is broken, the current hourly-level rebound is directly declared a failure, and a new downward phase will begin.🚨 $BTC IS TESTING THE LEVEL THAT COULD DEFINE THE NEXT MOVE
BTC rallied into $86K, showed a potential Sign of Strength, and has now pulled back into the $81K–$82K LPS zone.
This is the key structure test:
🟢 Hold $81K–$82K → accumulation remains intact, with $90K+ back on watch.
🔴 Lose $81K → structure weakens, opening attention toward the $74K–$76K FVG.
The reaction at $81K–$82K is what matters now.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek 【Demon Slaying 010】85 pools, only $17,890.80 left in the pool
Don’t look at the K-line, look at the pool.
The pool is the only food for this coin, and the only number that can’t lie.
I added up the pool balances of 85 records.
There are actually only three ways to die:
1. Drained dry — 40 "drained pools"
39 can be checked, median $6.49. The big chunk is taken away, leaving the residue that can’t be fully drained.
2. Rot yourself — 44 "zeroed out"
43 can be checked, totaling $6.12. Median $0.01, one cent.
3. Restart with a new shell — 1 "rebooted pool"
82 pools with checkable balances, all added together:
$17,890.80
Behind this are 13.94 million token-holding addresses.
The same platform has two more records:
LAX peak pool $45.9 million, ARK one-time cash out $26.26 million.
Now all added together, less than 18,000.
What does $0.01 mean:
Your tokens are still there, with a name, traceable.
But the pool behind them is already empty —
It’s not that no one is buying when you sell, there is no pool for you to sell to.
Self-check uses only one number:
Open your token, see how much is left in the pool.
Only above a few hundred dollars is there a chance to escape. #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
Trump rejected Iran's 7-day proposal, but both sides have not closed the negotiation window, saying talks will continue this week. At the same time, a number has been overshadowed by the noise: oil from the Strait of Hormuz is coming back.
▪️ Saudi Arabia's daily crude oil exports in September averaged 6 million barrels, up nearly 80% from 3.4 million barrels in August, the highest since the war.
▪️ But another set of numbers Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC is the opposite: August production was 6.238 million barrels/day, down 1.9 million barrels month-on-month, the lowest since 1990.
▪️ In the same report, it also reported August "market supply" at 7.122 million barrels/day, 884,000 barrels higher than production. Production is newly extracted oil for the month, supply is what is released to the market, so the difference must be supplemented from oil reserves.
The disagreement is not about when the strait will reopen, but where the returning barrels come from. Exports are climbing, but production remains at a 35-year low.
Pipeline rerouting and the US military opening a channel in Oman have indeed mobilized ships. But the ships are loading inventory, not newly extracted oil.
The 884,000 barrels/day gap is roughly equal to the entire daily output of a small to medium oil-producing country.
Will supply return once the strait reopens? Which number do you believe?#US-Iran Continue Negotiations on Conditions for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
1. Current Situation
The US and Iran are in a state of simultaneous negotiation and strategic maneuvering: Iran has set conditions, demanding the US lift the maritime blockade and reduce military pressure before reopening the strait within 7 days; the US rejects this proposal but keeps the door open for continued talks.
In reality, oil shipments are already resuming (about 7.4 million barrels of crude oil exported daily), but negotiations have not been finalized, and the market still factors supply risks into oil prices.
2. Impact of Two Scenarios on Assets
Scenario 1: Negotiations Break Down, Strait Navigation Obstructed
1. Oil prices rise, increasing global inflationary pressure
2. Fed rate cut expectations shrink, the US dollar strengthens, and US Treasury yields rise
3. Risk assets come under pressure: cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH tend to fall (BTC once dropped near 82,500 in the text)
4. Gold (XAU) benefits short-term from geopolitical safe-haven demand, likely to rise
Scenario 2: Substantive Progress in Negotiations, Strait Stably Open
1. Geopolitical premium on crude oil releases, oil prices fall, easing inflationary pressure
2. Fed rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar weakens, and US Treasury yields decline
3. Positive for risk assets: BTC, ETH, and Nasdaq QQQ rise
4. Gold benefits from rate cut expectations, also biased to the upside
3. Key Points
The market is not trading on "whether war breaks out," but on whether the strait can remain stably navigable.
The focus should not be solely on crypto candlesticks but prioritize observing three variables: oil prices, negotiation progress, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. $ETH Oh my god, how much higher are you going to go? Is this really the start of a bull market!?
This trade really paid off, a long position from 2500, while all my friends were shorting, I was the only one going against the trend.
Although the overall environment is still in a rate-hiking cycle, the crypto market is rising instead of falling. This clearly shows that everyone's tolerance for cryptocurrencies is continuously increasing.
Believe in the power of belief, the value of cryptocurrencies is being increasingly recognized $ETH
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC 📈
I’m not looking to chase every move higher.
The plan is simple: stay patient through the volatility, add only when pullbacks remain healthy, and keep the position focused on the bigger trend.
My upside level is $140K.
If price comes back toward my average cost, I’ll reassess the position instead of blindly adding.
Current exposure: 1.65 BTC
Holding period: 14 days
Patience > FOMO.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoToday, the most interesting thing about small coins is not the price fluctuations, but that OKB, HYPE, and BICO have completely formed three different structures: OKB is steadily holding above 120, HYPE is still digesting the chips after the new high of 98, and BICO, after continuous rebounds, is stuck at the 0.023 threshold. One is relatively stable, one is trend-driven, and one purely depends on trading volume.
$OKB is currently around 121, with 119.8–120 having become the first support level. After holding this, the next target is 122. Only after truly stabilizing above 123 will there be a chance to test 125–126 again. Compared to other small coins, OKB's biggest advantage now is its stable structure.
$HYPE is currently around 92.4. In the past few days, support has repeatedly appeared around 90–91. Now, 91–92 continues to be the first defense; looking upward, 93–94 is the initial recovery target. Only after truly standing back above 95 will there be a chance to discuss the historical high of 98 again.
$BICO is currently around 0.0226, with 0.0223–0.0225 as the first support. Above, 0.023 has continuously formed resistance. Only after a true volume breakout and stabilization will the next targets be 0.0237–0.024.
This lineup: OKB waits for 123, HYPE waits for 95, BICO waits for 0.023. Now, don’t just look at which one rises fastest; coins with a real second phase rally must first prove that previous resistance can turn into new support This week's non-pure trading profits also made several hundred dollars
A little deducted here, a little deducted there 🙈
For example: On Sunday morning, I put 6.5 OKB into the LP pool
Because I predicted an overall pullback before the non-farm payrolls
But selling directly only earns the price increase of the coin, and the coins still need to be bought back, so I put them into the LP pool to earn a bit
However, if the LP pool falls below the range, I have to buy an equivalent amount of $OKB, which is impermanent loss risk
So the worst scenario I can accept is buying 6.5 here
This controls the risk within 3% of my total holdings
In the end, besides the $5 LP earnings
I bought back the same amount during today's drop
Realizing profits equals earning part of the price difference
For $xPOPMART, besides swing trading, the part put into the LP pool also earned about 8%
Overall cost is calculated to be about 15% below the current price
X point rewards seem to have separate bonuses in the end
OKX has many generous activities, all knowing the ecosystem is the last shortcoming of OKB, but OKX can easily fix this shortcoming for the exchange, especially since we are already at the start of a bull market
So don't sell any of your OKB
Spot holdings, especially those below 80, are hard to buy again
As crypto investment tools increase, spot is a very important tool for excess returns
I accumulated enough spot and only started contract earnings half a month ago
Using various on-chain yields to open contracts without pressure, this is the Matthew effect, continuous compoundingTether just released a set of figures: from 2026 to now, cooperating with U.S. law enforcement and sanction agencies, it has frozen about $550 million USDT linked to the Central Bank of Iran/sanctioned networks. In April, two addresses were first frozen for over $344 million, and the next day were labeled by OFAC as digital currency identifiers of the Central Bank of Iran; in July, four more wallets were frozen for over $130 million. The official also added: cooperating with 67 countries and more than 340 law enforcement agencies, cumulatively freezing over $4.9 billion. The stablecoin issuer can freeze addresses based on law enforcement leads, purely embedding the capability of "visible and freezable on-chain" into the product, which frankly blew my mind. When such a scale of freezing is revealed, do people trust it more for compliance, or fear that their own funds might one day be mismatched?Polymarket's Vice President himself said that the current order book is the root cause of most of the platform's problems.
That's a harsh statement.
A prediction market operator directly defining their core system as the "source of the problem" is basically admitting that the poor trading experience before wasn't bad luck, but a fundamental flaw.
Next, they plan to replace it with a central limit order book rewritten in Rust.
In November, they'll first run a production traffic mirror to compare results with the old system and even give market makers testing access.
There will be two full rehearsals before the official switch.
I guess the key here isn't the technology, but the market makers.
What does a prediction market fear most? Thin order books, wide spreads, difficulty entering or exiting positions.
If market makers are well taken care of, liquidity will come.
As for the impact on coin prices, it's basically none.
But if you play prediction markets, this move is worth watching.
When a system undergoes such a major overhaul, no matter how well it's talked up, in the end, it depends on how deep the order book is.
If market makers don't step in, no matter how beautifully the code is written, it's just self-indulgence.
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $ETH $BTC / $ETH / $INJ | Three Different Moats
$BTC's moat is store of value.
$ETH's moat is smart contract versatility.
$INJ's moat is native derivatives.
Bitcoin serves as the value store in the digital world.
Ethereum's smart contracts are highly versatile, adaptable to countless use cases.
Injective bets on on-chain native derivatives, focusing on the trading and finance sector.
Different moats.
Different leading paths.
That's what makes the comparison interesting.$HEMI
Tomorrow is the big unlock for HEMI.
The price has now dropped to around $0.006.
It fell nearly 8% in the last 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $5 million.
On September 29, approximately 278 million HEMI tokens are expected to enter circulation, accounting for about 7% of the current circulating supply.
About 122 million of these come from the VC portion.
So this position is quite interesting. It's not that the unlock will definitely cause a drop. Rather, HEMI has already fallen quite a bit in advance, and now the market is about to face a real increase in supply. If the price does not continue to break down after the unlock, but instead rebounds to around $0.0065, it indicates that the new tokens are being absorbed by the market.
Entry: $0.0058–$0.0062
Take profit: $0.0065 / $0.0070 / $0.0080 / $0.0094
Stop loss: $0.00535Don't rush in, the whale hasn't been moved yet
Brothers, steady your hands. I'll say this first: there's a high probability of another short-term drop. I'm not trying to scare you; the whale's long positions are piled up too thickly. If we don't clear them first, the heavy load won't move.
$ETH: 2630 is the immediate hurdle.
Between 2614 and 2632, there's $32.12 million in whale long positions, with the densest liquidation area near 2613. Watch 2630 closely in the short term, followed by 2622 and 2614. If it really breaks below, 2550 needs to be tested one by one. However, futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 contracts over four days, and leverage has fallen back to March lows, which looks more like active deleveraging rather than a trend reversal. Wait for the liquidation to clear and for 2630 to be firmly reclaimed before adding longs.
$ZEC:
Market cap about $26.4 billion, support at 1550, if lost then look at 1500; resistance at 1600 and 1685. The trend isn't completely broken, but volatility is wild right now, chasing the rally is like catching a flying knife.
$SNDK:
Support at 1740, strong support at 1680; resistance at 1815 and 1900. The long-term logic for AI server NAND demand remains, but after consecutive gains, the valuation isn't cheap. It's better to buy on dips than chase highs.
Summary:
The overall script looks more like deleveraging first, then pumping. You can try a starter position, but don't go all in. Be more comfortable with smaller positions; most likely, you have to wait for the whale to be moved first.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Huang Licheng (Maji) restarted 40x leverage, newly opened about 99.7 BTC long positions, entry price $83,000, nominal value $8.31 million, total long position scale increased to $127 million.
40x is a faith recharge, historically accumulated losses of $29.22 million still charged ahead without hesitation. Can this round turn things around? 😇
$BTC $ETHBelarus approved two crypto banks, but they still can't start operations
Two crypto banks have been registered in the Belarus High-Tech Park.
These are the country's first batch.
The exact rule is:
Obtaining resident status in the park is only the first step.
At the triggering moment:
They must also pass certification by the national bank and be entered into the registry.
Without registry entry, they cannot open.
Commonly misunderstood point:
Crypto banks do not issue new coins.
They combine token business with deposit, loan, and payment services.
Names were not disclosed, nor was the certification timeline given.
There is still a gate between registration and licensing.
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ZEC Conclusion first: OKX launched XDP (Doppler Finance) spot + perpetual tonight. Spot trading opened at 20:00, starting at 0.0035, reaching a high of 0.0323 — within less than two hours after opening, the price peaked at 9 times the starting point. But the 24h trading volume was only $840,000, as thin as paper.
Classic script for a new coin's first day: first pump the sentiment, but if volume can't keep up, the price just hovers at the high level. The real informative moment is at 22:00 when perpetuals open — whether the funding rate can create a long-short divergence is more honest than that big bullish candle on spot.
Remember one thing on a new coin's first day: don't chase the first bullish candle, wait for the second one to see if the volume is there.
$XDP Will you enter on the first day or wait a few days for it to settle?$BTC is squeezing upwards this Sunday.
After consolidation yesterday, Bitcoin is now trending towards buyer liquidity.
Heading into next week, there are a few things I'll keep in mind.
I'm overall bullish and have maintained a long position since last Thursday's PDL sweep.
On Saturday, untouched liquidity was left at the 83.6K low; will we definitely break through there? No, but it's worth anticipating in advance.
Friday's PDH sweep provided a good short opportunity, but that move is now retracing, and shorts are being squeezed later on.
I'm only interested in looking for shorts after breaking above the 85.2K high, possibly also the 86K high.
So there are two potential short opportunities after the trigger, one more aggressive and the other more conservative.
Under these market conditions, consider shorts as a hedge.
I'm comfortably holding longs and will only add to my position if a clean continuation occurs next week. $ETH (1H) – Impulsive Reversal
Bias: LONG
Entry Zone: 2660 – 2690
Stop Loss: 2630
TP1: 2720
TP2: 2750
TP3: 2780
Why this setup:
Massive bullish engulfing candle bouncing directly from the 2,635 level, reclaiming local exponential moving averages rapidly.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh Around 7 o'clock, the risk market stopped falling and rebounded, not only due to the drop in oil prices but also importantly because of Nvidia's announcement of increasing its buyback by $150 billion.
From the perspective of the capital transmission chain, Nvidia can now be called the little Federal Reserve of the AI sector. Any company blessed by Huang (Jensen Huang) sees its valuation take off, truly a Midas touch.
If we place this move on my estimated 2027 bubble timeline, it signals a mid-to-late stage: liquidity providers in the ecosystem start spending liquidity on themselves. Historically, this corresponds to the phase where pricing shifts from growth to maturity—like Microsoft in 2004, Cisco in 2001, and Apple in 2013.
How long this bubble can last depends on three things:
Whether the actual buyback pace in the next earnings report really moves toward $40 billion per quarter
Whether share swap transactions continue
Capital expenditure guidance from cloud vendors' earnings at the end of October $NVDA Wednesday's PCE, don't just focus on the new August number
This time waiting for the PCE, I will also take a closer look at how the old data is revised.
At 20:30 on September 30, Beijing time, the August PCE and the third estimate of Q2 GDP will be released together. The BEA has also announced in advance that the annual data update will start from this day, and monthly personal income and expenditure are also included in the update.
In other words, what to watch on Wednesday is not just the extra number for August; the previously used data to judge trends may also change.
Currently, the released July PCE and core PCE both show a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. If the July numbers are revised on Wednesday, using today's screenshot of 0.2% to compare with August might mislead the interpretation of "warming or cooling." When comparing, the same new report's consecutive months should be used.
My attitude toward this data is: just seeing a single number below expectations is not enough for me to directly conclude that BTC can start a rally. Has core inflation also slowed down together? After revisions in previous months, is the direction still consistent? These are more useful than rushing to label the first candlestick as "bullish."
If the new data shows cooling and the revised previous months also support this direction, I will take this signal more seriously. If the new value looks good but the old values are revised upward, you can't just pick the favorable half to talk about.
Moreover, GDP data will be released at the same time. Even if $BTC moves immediately, you can't attribute the entire rise or fall solely to the PCE based on the order of release. On Wednesday, I will first look at the full report, then see if the price can hold the initial reaction.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 ZEC High-Level Gear Shift: Uptrend Unbroken, Momentum Pauses First
On September 28, ZEC was reported at $1569 on OKX, down 3.6% in 24 hours, with an intraday range of 1577-1670. Although short-term cooling occurred, it still rose 101% over 30 days and 83% in September, with a market cap of $26.9 billion, ranking 9th. OKX's 24h trading volume was $1.21 billion, accounting for 19.4% of the total market, second only to Binance's 31.3%, indicating continued strong capital interest.
Indicators show RSI at 64.4, leaning neutral, MACD histogram +3.15 still bullish; however, 1650 was rejected twice, and after removing Grayscale ZCSH replacements, external new funds are only $200 million. ETF inflows have been zero for three consecutive days, clearly dulling upward momentum. Key levels: support at 1530 (short-term EMA band) and 1450; resistance at 1650 and 1688.
Strategy-wise, NU7 upgrade remains in effect, but short-term chasing of highs is not advisable. A stable rebound at 1530 allows for light long positions; break below 1450 calls for reducing positions. Large whales hold short positions with unrealized losses in the tens of millions and no liquidation line, increasing naked short risks. On the macro front, watch for Nonfarm Payrolls, PCE, Micron earnings and AI storage demand, and US-Iran Hormuz Strait negotiations. $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 A building never collapses because the exterior wall paint color was chosen incorrectly; it’s because no one bothered to inspect the main rebar embedded in the concrete foundation pit.
$WLFI is doing exactly that now—not an exterior wall issue, but a reinforcement ratio issue. The whitepaper is a rendering; anyone can make a rendering look magnificent. What truly determines whether this building can stand over twenty floors is the underlying architecture, the contractor’s qualifications, and the long-term scalable load capacity. A beautiful design doesn’t mean the structure is sound—this is something I’ve been saying for twenty years during blueprint reviews.
First, look at the load readings. A 2.32% drop over 24 hours is not a collapse; it’s a routine static load test—the building hasn’t cracked, just a layer of dust has formed on the wall surface. The 1-hour RSI dropped to 35.7, breaking below the 38 threshold; the structural monitor gave a slightly cold reading, indicating a short-term oversold zone. But extending the observation window, the long-term RSI remains at 42.5 in the neutral zone, and the load-bearing layer shows no plastic deformation. Short-term cold, long-term stable—this combination in structural terms is called "local deflection, overall integrity," not "main structure instability."
Next, look at the Bollinger Bands, the verticality gauge. In the short term, the price is already at the 6th percentile, only 0.2% above the lower band—almost resting on the foundation slab, while there’s still 2.9% clearance above. The mid-term position is at 22%, with a 3.8% cushion below and 12.7% height reserved above. Translated into construction terms: the lower structure of this building is compressed close to its limit, but the upper space is not yet capped, and the vertical deviation remains within allowable limits.
The trading plan follows the blueprint:
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.05 (current price -2.0%, leaving a settlement joint, wait for a pullback before pouring)
Take Profit 1: $0.06 (+4.8%, first floor capped, collect part of the project payment)
Take Profit 2: $0.06 (+12.7%, main structure topped out, full project delivery)
Stop Loss: $0.05 (-13.5%, break below means foundation failure, entire building must be re-surveyed and rebuilt)
Note the nature of this stop loss: it’s not a "hold on a bit longer" point; it’s the point where the foundation slab is breached. A 13.5% tolerance sounds wide, but for a structure clinging to the Bollinger lower band, only 0.2% above it, this is the last waterproof layer. Once that layer breaks, all the finishing plans above are void.
The entry point is set 2.0% below the current price, deliberately leaving a construction joint—no chasing highs, no rushing work on cantilevered structures.
The current status: rebar tied, formwork set, concrete not yet poured. The blueprint won’t say "wait a bit longer"—either follow the plan and plaster, or dismantle the formwork and redo the foundation on the spot.The Clarity Act died directly in the tug-of-war between CFTC and SEC jurisdiction, but the SEC turned around and gave an innovation exemption, allowing tokenized US stocks to run for five years. In the short term, market sentiment hasn't collapsed directly. ETH current price is 2689, with volume contraction and oscillation. Looking at the liquidation chart, there are many short orders stacked between 2700 and 2750 above, and long stop-loss orders buried between 2650 and 2620 below. Short-term liquidity is clearly biased to the long side, and the market has the momentum to push up and trigger short stop-losses.
Just parked the car downstairs and took a bite of a cold bun, eyes never leaving the phone. This kind of structure is most prone to first a spike down then a reversal. To recover losses in one go, you have to trade according to levels, not blindly chase.
Technically, 2640 is the short-term lifeline, 2720 is resistance. Here's a clear operation plan: light long positions between 2680 and 2690, stop loss at 2638, first take profit at 2720. If it can't break through, reduce positions; if it breaks through, then look at 2745. If it first surges above 2705 but quickly falls back below 2700, don't chase the high; wait to buy low between 2650 and 2620 for more stability.
$ETH
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球