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$ZEC might be popular among Chinese traders. Yesterday it hit a low of 1111, about 300 points away from breaking even. I've been stuck for over a month. I shorted ZEC at 816, and last night was the closest I've been to breaking even. During the day it was still at 1333, then suddenly dropped to 1111 at midnight. The unrealized loss was just 300 points. I was watching the screen hoping it would break below 1000, but that didn't last. It didn't break 1000 as I expected, and surprisingly it bouncewoc direct big waterfall.. I'm really glad I didn't go in more this afternoon on impulse. The manipulator gives you a little taste of sweetness and then dares to short your position.
This afternoon, MAGIC was pulled from 0.13 to 0.163, which made me itchy to buy more, almost rushing in again. At that time, I thought "chase a bit more to break even," my finger was even on the buy button. But I held back, and looking back now, luckily I didn't enter.
It dropped straight from 0.16379 to 0.097, a nearly 40% plunge. Everyone who chased the high is stuck at the peak, no one escaped. This is the manipulator's trick: first give you a little sweetness to make you think "it can still rise," then when you go all in, they hit you with a big bearish candle.
My account is now 80.53U, recovered 24.78U today.
Honestly, the reason I could keep the profit this time wasn't skill, but that moment of not losing my head. If I had impulsively chased this afternoon, I'd probably have to start over now.
MA5 is at 0.10563, MA10 at 0.10552, MA20 at 0.10817, all short-term moving averages pressing overhead, clearly a bearish structure. After the rally and pullback, it's very likely to continue drifting down; whether 0.09 support holds is uncertain.
Manipulator, keep performing, I'll wait for the next opportunity.
$MAGIC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The $BTC BTC data shows a very clear contrast! In the 1h, 4h, and 12h intervals, the liquidation amount of short positions directly crushes that of long positions. Just now, a wave of rally swept out a large number of short-term shorts.
But when extended to 24 hours, the situation reverses: the total liquidation for the whole day is $7.108 million, with long position liquidations at $3.925 million, higher than shorts at $3.183 million.
Simply put: short-term rallies prioritize harvesting shorts, but over the whole day of back-and-forth oscillation, many longs are also shaken out. Liquidations are records of already occurred clearings, not a guarantee of subsequent bullishness Cousin's Diary - October 10, 23:19
$BTC reported around 82,600-82,700 USD, up slightly by 0.3% in 24h; $ETH reported around 2,497 USD, showing weakness.
Market background: Thursday's sharp drop triggered about 1.19 billion USD in leveraged liquidations, with BTC once falling near 80,400 USD. Current BTC funding rate is (-0.0121%), open interest contracts dropped to 42.8 billion USD, down 2.5% in 24h. Binance accounts hold 60.2% long positions but only 52.1% of active trades are long; OKX active trades show shorts slightly dominant at 50.2%, rebound lacks trade confirmation. BTC ETF outflows totaled about 729 million USD over two days, funding conditions have not yet strengthened.
Key levels: BTC resistance above at 83,000 and 84,170-84,400 USD range; support below at 82,000-82,300 and 81,100 USD. ETH resistance above at 2,520 USD; support at 2,400 USD is a critical lifeline.
Trading advice: Focus on shorting on rallies in the evening, do not chase rebounds. BTC can try light short positions near 83,000-83,500, target around 81,500; ETH try short near 2,500-2,520, target 2,450. If volume surges and holds above 83,500, exit short positions and wait. Strictly control leverage and position size.
Personal review record only, does not constitute any investment advice. #September FOMC minutes released, most officials favor another rate hike
#US CFTC advances crypto market rules, SEC plans to adjust custody framework
$MAGIC $ZEC $SOL Damn, damn, a 70% increase in one day!
This is pure provocation against us!
Brothers, I'm shorting first.
I just don't believe it can rise another 70%.
Look at the daily chart yourself, $MAGIC went straight from 0.066 to 0.16379, nearly two and a half times in one day. The volume hit 500 million, the whole market is boiling, and the community is full of calls for takeoff and getting rich.
But the more it goes like this, the more I feel something's off.
This is clearly a pump by manipulative whales to attract followers and dump chips on those chasing the high.
Why am I confident to short? Look at the EMA. The 5-day moving average is only 0.153, but the price surged above 0.16, the deviation is ridiculously large. Such violent rallies can't be supported by the moving averages. Once sentiment cools down, returning to the moving average is the first target.
Look at the order book now, 64% are short, 36% are long, shorts are already the majority, yet the price is still being pushed up hard. What is this? It's a short squeeze baiting longs. When shorts can't hold and cover, a waterfall drop will come.
I entered a short at 0.15499, stop loss set above the previous high at 0.16379, if it breaks, I accept the loss. The first target is 0.12, if it breaks below that, look for 0.10.
"Be fearful when others are greedy," as Buffett said.
Now the whole network is greedy, so I'm on the side of the majority.
You can enter a light short position at 0.154, stop loss above the previous high at 0.16379, first target 0.12, if it breaks below, look for 0.10.
rephrase 周末不看盘？1199 天数据：周末反而比工作日友好 先说结论：周末没你想的那么危险，真正难的是周一。 我把 OKX 上 BTC 现货日线全扒了，2023 年 6 月 28 日到 2026 年 10 月 9 日，1199 天，171 个周末，按 UTC 自然日算的。 周末单日平均涨 0.199%，上涨天数占 55.3%。工作日呢，平均 0.072%，胜率 52.5%。周末不光没拖后腿，还小赢一截。 更反直觉的是波动。都说周末没人看盘容易出幺蛾子，数据说反了：周末单日波动超 3% 的天数只占 12.9%，工作日 16.3%。周末反而更温柔。 一周画像也拉出来了。周五最稳：胜率 63.4%，大波动天数只占 3.5%。周一最难：胜率 47.4% 全周垫底，大波动占比 21.1% 全周最高。周一才是真战场，开盘前把闹钟定好。 分层看个有用的。周末两天合计跌超 2% 的，一共 38 次，后面那个周一 60.5% 反弹，平均涨 0.525%。普通周一只有 43.6% 上涨。翻译一下：周末挨了揍，周一别急着割，大概率能回点血。 ETH 和 SOL 顺手也测了，周末和工作日没啥区别。这毛病主要是 BTC$ZEC $1,223 | Bollinger Bands have tightened to the extreme, a trend reversal is imminent
Zcash has retraced about 28% from the late September high of $1,698, currently trading around $1,223. Technically, a noteworthy signal has appeared: the amplitude of 30 candlesticks is only 6.17%, with Bollinger Bands narrowing to $1,201-$1,236, a typical low-volatility consolidation pattern.
There is a clear divergence in capital flow. The Grayscale ZCSH ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million in one week, with assets under management dropping from a peak of $979 million to $751 million, turning the ETF from a buying force into selling pressure. However, a whale continues to accumulate during the dip; a major whale's main wallet holds about $66.19 million in ZEC and was still withdrawing 2,000 coins from Binance on September 30.
The NU7 testnet has been activated, with the mainnet targeted for November 5. Block intervals have shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling confirmation speed. The old Sprout privacy pool addresses will become invalid after the mainnet upgrade, so users holding old addresses need to transfer assets in advance.
Key levels: $1,201-$1,213 is the overlapping support zone of the lower Bollinger Band and MA5; holding this level suggests bullish consolidation. Falling below $1,188 indicates structural weakness.
Join the discussion below: can NU7 help ZEC halt this decline? 👇
#SeptemberFOMCMinutesReleased, most officials favor another rate hike
#CheckInWithOKX2049
rephrase $AEON perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.0694, currently at 0.05921, floating profit +293.65%.
The logic is very simple: the 0.069 whole number resistance was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear top characteristics. Finally waited for a large bearish candle to drop, then shorted. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.075. The movement was very smooth, no chance for a rebound, directly smashed down to 0.05921.
Moved stop loss up to 0.0694 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks below 0.055, can hold a bit longer to see 0.05.
$ETH $SOL #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The Thailand Stock Exchange has opened the door for crypto ETFs, but the gap is narrow: the first batch only recognizes BTC and ETH. Products must be passively tracked, with a single currency net exposure of no less than 80%, assets supervised and custodied by the SEC, and brokers are prohibited from engaging in margin financing. Individual investors are still excluded from offshore crypto ETFs; qualified institutions and high-net-worth clients can participate, and local public and private funds can also allocate domestic crypto ETFs. Almost simultaneously, the BTC spot ETF saw its largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months. While policies are paving the way for compliance, funds are retreating in the short term. In the medium term, this looks more like a signpost for compliant Southeast Asian capital entering the market, with a relatively positive bias toward BTC/ETH underlying holdings. But don’t treat this news as a rallying call. It’s better to wait until subscription, trading, and custody data truly pick up before placing bets. #BTC spot ETF records largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months 🔍 BTC dropped from 86,500 to 80,420 this week, then rebounded to 83,000 on Friday. Has the most dangerous hurdle been passed?
On Thursday, $860 million long positions were liquidated in a flash crash, and ETF net outflows reached $679 million this week.
📊 Three key data points:
· Price: Low at 80,420, currently around 82,900, with 83,000 to 83,500 as the first resistance level
· ETF: Large outflows on Wednesday and Thursday, BTC inflow of 21.13 million on Friday, ETH ETF has had 9 consecutive days of outflows
· Macro: US-Iran negotiation expectations have pushed oil prices down, 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 5.24%
🎯 Three things to watch next week:
1️⃣ Can BTC reclaim 83,500?
2️⃣ Can ETFs have net inflows for 2 consecutive days?
3️⃣ Can US Treasury yields fall below 5.2%?
Do you think 80,420 is the bottom this round? Reply A for yes / B for no in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH $XRP #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Intraday position, sold it off, even reaching 112 is tough, 3-minute and 5-minute shorts have come in, $BTC $ETH $SOL currently MACD is in the deep zone with insufficient upward momentum, and it's also the weekend with poor liquidity, so sold first, will buy back on the dip, it doesn't matter if I get off too early, in a few days it will still go deeper.Quantum Computing + AI Double Impact: Is Bitcoin's Underlying Security Really Stable in the Future? 1. Conclusion First: No Need to Panic in the Short Term, But Don't Ignore It in the Medium to Long Term In the next 5–10 years, whether the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin will evolve into a real crisis remains highly uncertain. However, one point is worth noting: once a universal quantum computer with sufficient error correction capability emerges, Bitcoin's existing elliptic curve signature system may face fundamental challenges. AI itself cannot directly crack Bitcoin's private keys, but it may accelerate quantum algorithm research, improve vulnerability discovery efficiency, and make attacks targeting wallets and users more precise. Therefore, the real issue to discuss is not whether Bitcoin will be hacked tomorrow, but whether Bitcoin can protect existing assets if the cryptographic foundations change in the future. 2. Quantum Computers: Bitcoin's Real Long-Term Hidden Risk Bitcoin currently mainly uses the elliptic curve digital signature system, including ECDSA, and Schnorr signatures in some scenarios. They both rely on the computational difficulty of the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem to ensure asset security. The biggest threat posed by quantum computers lies in their potential to fundamentally change this computational difficulty. 1. Shor's Algorithm: Deriving Private Keys from Public Keys Theoretically, a quantum computer with sufficient scale and error correction capability can use Shor's algorithm to break the elliptic curve cryptography Bitcoin relies on, deriving the corresponding private key from the public key. This means that once an attacker$FIL FIL this data is quite interesting. In the last 1 hour, long position liquidations were directly zero, and all liquidations were short positions, indicating that the recent upward pull only swept out the shorts.
But when extended to 12 hours and 24 hours, the situation reverses. In 24 hours, total liquidations reached $1,037,000, with long positions liquidated at $221,000 and shorts as high as $815,000.
In simple terms: a short-term slight rally cleared out short-term shorts, but in the big market move over the whole day, the scale of short position liquidations was much larger. However, liquidations are only a post-event result and cannot be taken as ironclad proof of a bullish trend. The market can change at any time, so position management in contracts is essential. To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to last this long; luck played a big part. Yesterday afternoon when the market pulled up, I watched $SAND for a long time, but the volume didn’t keep up, and there was still resistance above. At that moment, I felt it was a strong bull trap and immediately signaled to open a short position.
Sure enough, the follow-through was insufficient, and every upward push fell just short.
Entered at 0.07491, exited at 0.06818, +451.2% profit realized. This gain feels good. I pocketed the bulk first, closing 80%, and kept 20% at cost price as protection, so if it rebounds, I won’t give back the profits.
Being out of position isn’t a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush. I’ll signal the next round at a more comfortable level as soon as possible.
$SOL $SNDK The situation in the Middle East is intensifying, yet the US has found a new breakthrough with Russia, causing oil prices to fall!
#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解
The US and Russia have reached an agreement for Russia to supply nearly 2 million tons of diesel to the US in batches. The US Treasury Department simultaneously issued a temporary license (valid until April 2027) allowing related transactions and imports.
After the news broke, US diesel futures briefly dropped about 4.5%, but Brent $BZ remains near $104.
Easing energy tensions help lower inflation expectations and improve growth prospects, which is generally positive for risk assets.
However, with restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical premiums, if Middle East transportation disruptions continue or conflicts escalate, any rebound in oil prices will offset the benefits on the diesel side.
Moreover, this license is a temporary policy, and actual delivery and execution remain uncertain.
Therefore, my judgment is:
Overall energy prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels, with limited downside and persistent upside risks.
$BTC is fluctuating around $82,700–$82,900, with independent trends difficult to form and more likely to follow macro sentiment. A confirmed oil price decline and no escalation in geopolitical tensions would be favorable; otherwise, pressure remains.
Gold $XAU is currently around $4194 per ounce. High oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty support safe-haven demand, but easing refined oil prices that reduce inflation expectations may weaken its appeal as an inflation hedge. In the short term, it is more driven by geopolitical and liquidity expectations, mainly fluctuating at high levels, with limited downward pressure from easing oil prices.#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？
The boss has something to say
Vitalik has spoken out about the threats AI and quantum computing pose to blockchain. AI accelerates mathematical research, which could weaken some cryptographic schemes. Quantum computing targets the elliptic curve signatures of BTC and ETH. But so far, no mainstream algorithms have been practically broken.
The real challenge isn’t just changing the locks, but the process of changing them. How to migrate coins from tens of millions of old addresses to quantum-resistant signatures without downtime or loss of coins is more complex than the technology itself. What about Satoshi’s coins? Once quantum breakthroughs happen, should they be forcibly frozen or left exposed? There’s no consensus.
Countermeasures are underway. NIST has issued post-quantum standards, the White House is running a $215 million competition. Ethereum is researching quantum-resistant signatures and account migration, Coinbase is upgrading key management, and the Bitcoin community is discussing improvement proposals. Most are still in the development stage.
The market hasn’t reacted much. BTC rose slightly by 0.42%, ETH by 0.84%. The market is waiting for macro data.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn’t changed: positive news has been priced in, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. ETFs saw a net outflow of $487 million yesterday, the largest since June 25. The 30-year US Treasury yield is 5.7%, oil prices remain high, and macro pressure persists.
Stop loss at 87500, target to reduce position at 80000, then push the rest to breakeven. Manage position size well, avoid heavy exposure. The quantum threat is a slow variable and doesn’t affect short-term rhythm. Set stop losses on orders, don’t hold through risk. $BTC $ETH Conclusion first: $STRK surged another 22% in 24h today, from 0.073 to 0.089, hitting a nine-month high (according to news sources), while BTC basically traded sideways (+0.04%) in the same period. Money is rotating from large-cap coins to altcoins, and STRK is the most legitimate winner in this trend.
Three verifiable figures:
① 24h trading volume just over $300 million (OKX), the last 4H candle jumped about 25%, with volume more than 4 times the previous candle — this is not retail sentiment-driven, someone is genuinely buying in;
② Funding rate only 0.005%, longs pay a tiny bit, leverage is far from overheated, the main force is still spot money;
③ On the 9th, the whole market liquidated $1 billion (news source), STRK was one of the few coins moving against the trend, with price clearly decoupled from the market.
Narrative has two layers: On the 9th, the team said they are "actively considering" an independent L1, aiming for quantum resistance by 2027 (The Defiant report, early consideration, not a formal proposal); On the 5th, v0.14.4 mainnet upgrade launched, adding gas optimizations and larger proofs (SNIP-36). One fuels long-term imagination, the other proves execution is real.
My judgment: The news provides a rationale, volume confirms someone is buying. But on the 15th, 127 million STRK will unlock (CoinGecko data), so leave some room for chasing positions.
At the 0.09 level, do you think this is a confirmed breakout or the first resistance?$RLC two cycles are conflicting, the key is not to guess the direction
$RLC 24h -5.53%, current price 0.935. On the surface, it’s just a rise and fall, but the real conflict is hidden in the cycles: 1-hour is bearish, 4-hour is bullish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it to the end.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 10.70% away from the 1-hour support at 0.835, and about 28.18% away from the resistance at 1.1985. Putting these two distances together helps to see which side needs more evidence. Looking only at the price change easily mistakes the space that has already been traveled as if it hasn’t started yet.
The opposing side also has clear invalidation lines. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 0.835 means short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 0.6515, the previous bullish or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you can’t pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It’s easier to understand this market movement as equipment acceptance testing: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your view as a condition, so if you’re wrong, you know where the mistake is. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: the short cycle has already led a turn, or the large cycle still has stronger constraints? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.One of the most discussed recent news about Dogecoin is that Bitwise's DOGE ETF is about to cease operations.
According to recent reports, the fund plans to stop trading on October 14, followed by the processing of fund settlements. This at least indicates that although Dogecoin has high recognition, recognition does not equate to sufficient investment demand in traditional financial markets.
I think this should not be simply understood as Dogecoin about to drop. The closure of a fund is not the same as the future of the entire DOGE market. But it does remind us that we cannot assume that funds will continue to flow in just because a coin has an ETF or institutional attention.
For Dogecoin, what really matters in the future is actual demand, market liquidity, and whether new funds are willing to participate long-term. Relying solely on hype may make it difficult to sustain continuous growth. $BTC Yesterday afternoon I cleared out my hoarded long positions. I originally set the target selling price at 2.506 yuan/jin, thinking it could break through 2.500, but the order was automatically executed.
Now I've borrowed two baskets of tomatoes from the vendor to sell, and placed two additional orders. At the same time, I also opened a short position on $DOGE. Hopefully this price surge is just an oversold rebound and won't really send vegetable prices flying. #星球日报 23:14 High probability scenario, focusing on Ethereum.
Everyone, don't panic. In a one-sided downward market, temporary rebounds are not a cause for alarm.
ETH rebounds to 2,510—2,520 and faces resistance, then falls back, probing 2,490—2,500; if it breaks below, it will test 2,431 (Maji liquidation price) and the previous low of 2,405. The strategy is mainly to short lightly after the rebound, with targets sequentially at 2,490, 2,450, and 2,431.
$ETH One detail traders may be underestimating: BTC futures open interest fell 4.34% to $51.81B over the latest two-day period.
That doesn’t tell us whether bulls or bears will win next. It tells us positioning is being reduced.
If price rises while open interest keeps falling, short-covering may be helping the move. If both rise together, fresh risk may be returning.
Watch the combination, not price alone.
#DailyOrbit Got sanctioned by a meme coin again, this dog whale is really ruthless! 😭
---
Look at these two pictures, I’m spitting blood on the screen
【How absurd was this STRK move?】
Yesterday I shorted at 0.07381, watching it drop all the way to 0.07067, with a floating profit of +12%, still thinking "this can go down to 0.06."
But today the dog whale just flipped the table.
From 0.06857 it surged wildly, forcibly pulling up to 0.08969! A 19.34% increase in one day! MA5, MA10, and MA20 all stomped under a big bullish candle, the bullish alignment extremely arrogant.
This isn’t a market move, it’s the dog whale chasing me with a sickle to cut me down. I held until 0.08623 but couldn’t take it anymore, stopped loss and exited, -50%.
Looking back, I still made the same old mistake:
Underestimated the ferocity of the dog whale, who can easily blow up all shorts with a single pull. The news was also cooperating: "Starknet shifts to independent L1 and post-quantum technology to drive the ecosystem" — this kind of long-term pie-in-the-sky news is just an excuse to pump the price.
This STRK trade went from +12% floating profit to -50% stop loss, back and forth, the account directly fell back to pre-liberation levels.
The joy of making gains a few days ago was all gone overnight.
But that’s trading, you accept the loss when you lose the bet. I admit this loss.
$STRK
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 This wave is not a technical show; it's macro pressure suppressing leverage: The FOMC minutes showed a unanimous 19-0 vote to raise rates to 3.75%-4%, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.305%, and CME indicates a 66% probability of another rate hike in December; combined with a single-day outflow of 484.9 million from BTC ETFs and a record cumulative outflow of 579 million from ETH ETFs in October, institutions are retreating amid widespread leverage.
CoinGlass liquidation charts show a "two-way magnetic attraction" among the three major coins: BTC has the densest long liquidations below at 81,777 (over 1 billion liquidated in 24H, 930 million longs), and shorts cluster above at 83,849; ETH's liquidation zones are closest to the current price, with the lowest trigger thresholds at 2,467.4 below and 2,540.2 above; XRP longs overwhelmingly dominate, with 11.96 million long liquidations vs. 540,000 shorts in 24H, an imbalance exceeding 2200%, and a break below 1.39 with no buffer.
The core risk is sweeping one side of leverage first, then reversing. The strategy: control leverage multiples and avoid placing stop losses right in the middle of dense liquidation zones.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 Just recording this Martingale, not sure if it will blow up my position later. If it does, this parameter will need further optimization.Today I made three short trades on $MAGIC, all successful. The one entered at 0.15304 was the best, exiting at 0.14066, earning 79 points; the other two entered at 0.12447 and 0.11599 gained 35 points and 10 points respectively. Although none were sold at the lowest point and missed the fattest part, all three trades were green and steady. Screenshot attached.
The rhythm was good today, but I’m not greedy, so I’m done for the day. Did you guys trade today? #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #OKX星球话题来啦 🚨 CRYPTO MARKET ALERT: CHECK YOUR LEVELS BEFORE TAKING A TRADE!
Trading signals are useless when support and resistance are marked incorrectly.
Someone shared an $ETH setup with support at $2,520 and resistance at $2,460. There’s an obvious problem: the levels are reversed.
📊 How to Read the Chart Correctly
🟢 Support: Usually below the current market price, where buyers may step in.
🔴 Resistance: Usually above the current market price, where selling pressure may emerge.
#DailyOrbit The recent trend is like a nonstop shit spray, no stopping it, not even a rebound to wipe the ass.
ETH has plunged from 2807 down to 2495, three consecutive bearish daily candles, EMA5, 10, and 20 all diverging downward, MACD green bars getting longer and longer.
No bottom-fishing funds, no resistance, just a one-way smash down.
I entered a 100x short at 2727.54, now floating profit is 850%. 🔥 $BTC Evening Market Brief
1️⃣ $BTC & $ZEC: Sideways markets can punish overtrading. Leverage and repeated stop-losses quickly drain capital.
2️⃣ Corporate BTC Holdings: Debt-driven Bitcoin sales may add selling pressure. Small repurchases don’t necessarily signal renewed confidence.
3️⃣ $ETH & Stablecoins: Growing stablecoin adoption supports blockchain payments, but doesn’t automatically increase ETH’s value.
#DailyOrbit $BTC spot ETF records the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months
I am Mid-term Intelligence Bro,
ETH Movement Quick Report:
Fidelity increased its holdings by $66.6 million in $ETH over the past 20 days. BitMine holds 6.016 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of circulation, planning to stop buying at 5%.
Gnosis states that the xDAI bridge and Omnibridge are the first mainnet production systems using Ethereum's fast confirmation rules.
#DailyOrbit $MAGIC has a circulating market value of only about one billion, yet its daily volume can expand more than twentyfold, with highly concentrated chips, currently in a typical state of high control.
The control path is very clear: On 10/8, the volume was extremely low, closing at 0.063, representing a shakeout and accumulation in the low-cost zone, using very low turnover to clean floating chips; on 10/9, there was suddenly a huge volume with a long bullish candle, volume ratio exceeding twenty times, breaking through the previous high resistance at 0.074 and rushing to 0.12, which is a rapid lift with small funds to leave the cost zone, activating the breakout pattern's momentum followers.
The current high-volume surge is driven by social media sentiment, not fundamentals. The main player uses the euphoric market to complete chip detachment and turnover; the huge volume and long bullish candle at the high position often represent a structure of simultaneous lifting and distribution. The initiative on the board is completely on the side of the controlling party.Diesel can be borrowed, but the Strait is hard to borrow 🛢️
The US move is like putting a fever patch on a high fever patient: reducing the fever first, not curing the disease. Diesel prices just surged to $6.52 per gallon. After a call between Trump and Putin, Russia immediately dispatched 300,000 tons of diesel, with another 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons more to follow; the Treasury Department simultaneously relaxed regulations, extending permits until April 2027. In the short term, the oil market cools down, and inflation expectations get some relief.
But what about the Strait of Hormuz? An advisor to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard still issues tough words: the Strait will be "closed," and illegal shipping lanes will be blocked until demands are met. Russian oil can fill US inventories but cannot defuse the Middle East's ticking time bomb. This US-Russia deal is a tactical exchange, not a structural reconciliation. 🤝
For the crypto market: $BTC $ETH $ZEC short-term sentiment is warm, and risk assets have a breathing window. But don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal. The hard gap at Hormuz remains, and geopolitical premiums could come back at any time. Any shake in the oil route will cause inflation, interest rates, and liquidity to tremble along. 🧯
In a word: Diesel can be borrowed, but the Strait is hard to borrow; short-term warmth, long-term instability. 🚨$W I opened this 20x long position at 0.01697. The market looked weak at the time, but it actually couldn't fall further.
Now the mark price is 0.018558, with an unrealized profit of 187.15%. Holding on is the right call.
Recently, the W series token sector has shown clear rotation, and funds are starting to focus on low market cap cross-chain targets.
The price repeatedly tested around 0.0165 without breaking, indicating strong buy support below. Coupled with a moderate increase in spot volume recently, the bullish momentum is sufficient, allowing me to capture breakout profits. $BTC $ETH #OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 [Ant Night Report] Greed index rebounds, but profits are quickly retreating
The fear and greed index jumped from 59 to 64, entering the greed zone, but BTC fell back to 83,000. Hot sentiment, cold price—this divergence is uncomfortable. Profits retreated from 461U to 27U, painful but not panicking.
$BTC: Entry 83111.9 / Mark 82999.02, floating profit +27U (ROI +3.3%).
On-chain data shows whales increased holdings by 15,000 coins in the past 72 hours; big players are buying while retail is selling. Short chasing is no longer cost-effective. Defense moved to cost price to break even; hold if it doesn't break 82,000.
$XRP: Entry 1.4167 / Mark 1.4067, floating profit +77U.
Evernorth will list on Nasdaq on October 12; institutionalization is advancing, but the price first took a hit. Before the positive news lands, a shakeout occurs. Defense set below cost price; hold if it doesn't reclaim 1.42.
$DOGE: Entry 0.08828 / Mark 0.08628.
24-hour forced liquidations reached 7.82 million, 94% long positions liquidated. The leverage cascade is far fiercer than the ETF incremental volume. Defense set below cost price; trade time for space.
Hot topic: October 14 CPI is next week's core anchor. Current pricing fully reflects no rate hike in October but underprices the risk of CPI exceeding expectations. #跟着OKX打卡2049
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Staring at the screen, feeling utterly exhausted. Today $SOL and $ETH are struggling to redeem, but $TRUMP is still dragging me into the abyss.
$SOL opened at 109.56, current price 109.72, long position slightly up 48U. The trend is healthy, liquidation at 104.67, it is the only comfort in this bleak market.
$ETH opened at 2495.23, current price 2495.84, long position slightly up 6.1U. Added to 10 contracts at a low point barely breaking even, 1116% margin rate, my last dignity, liquidation at 2381.
$TRUMP opened at 2.7029, current price 1.8889, long position bleeding a loss of 814U, ROI -861.95%. Margin rate only 3.30%, clinging tightly to the liquidation line. The take profit is still a dream at 3.0. In full position mode, it is slowly draining my account; I don't even have the strength to cut losses, can only wait for fate's judgment.
Summary: A faint light can't save the abyss. Holding on without stop loss only leaves a heart full of despair. Tonight is destined to be sleepless, waiting for a miracle or for the dust to settle. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 Brothers, I was right, the $ZEC rebound has really come! But you must set your take profit properly; the rebound won't be very strong, so take your gains and run quickly.
I entered a long position at 1,211.31, current price is 1,238.31, floating profit 6.69%, the direction is steady. The long-short ratio is 83% longs to 17% shorts, longs dominate, and buy orders are stacked below the market between 1,238.22 and 1,238.30, with the largest single order at 60.62, holding firm.
The core logic is that the strong control ability of the ZEC whales is still there; after the sharp drop, it will definitely rebound. It fell from 1700 to 1200, nearly 30% down, with strong whales supporting the price all along. But this rebound won't be as strong as last month; the whales won't let retail investors comfortably break even. So start taking profits in batches around 1,300, don't be greedy.
The NU7 upgrade is scheduled for November 5, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, improving fundamentals. On-chain whales are still accumulating. Technically, ZEC is repeatedly bottoming around 1,200, MACD bearish momentum is exhausted, and the short-term rebound structure remains.
I'm holding my long position entered at 1,211.31, with a stop loss at 1,180, targeting 1,300 first, and will exit once reached.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The "infinite inflation" that has been laughed at for ten years, DOGE has now taken action itself
DOGE is about to be "slimmed down." The community is discussing a proposal: cutting the block reward from 10,000 coins per block to 1,000 coins. Currently, about 5.3 billion new coins are added annually; if truly reduced, the inflation structure would change completely. The discussion is still ongoing, and whether it will be implemented is uncertain.
Ten years ago, I wouldn't have even dared to imagine this. Back then, the most mocked phrase about $DOGE was "infinite inflation, no scarcity." I argued for dozens of posts on forums, my exact words: fixed annual inflation, total supply increases, proportion decreases, actual inflation rate lowers year by year—this is design, not a flaw. In the end, no one convinced anyone.
Now, the community itself has put halving on the table. Did I win the argument? No, and it doesn't matter. What matters is that this chain has started seriously discussing "how money should be issued"—a topic for adults.
Whether to reduce or not depends on negotiations between the community and miners. Personally, I support it—not because I expect it to bring any market rally, but because the discussion itself is valuable: a chain that was born as a joke is now, twelve years later, seriously talking about monetary policy.Due to the recent sell-off, a large amount of liquidity has accumulated above the price.
Simply moving towards $85k would liquidate about $3B worth of short positions.
Therefore, the biggest pain point is definitely in the upward direction.$MAGIC This 20x short $MAGIC trade continues to expand its gains, securing a 631.70% floating profit, with the main downtrend phase deeply realized again.
Looking back to the entry at 0.1539, the logic is the same as previous rounds: the rebound's high-level active buying completely dried up, and after leveraged longs were liquidated, it triggered a chain stampede. From 0.1539 down to 0.10526, nearly 4,800 points of space exploded into over six times profit at 20x leverage, with the bearish trend continuing very cleanly.
Currently, 0.10526 is extremely close to the 0.1 whole number threshold, and passive buying at low levels has already started to intensively absorb. The bearish momentum is visibly weakening. Short-term low-level consolidation, 20x leverage combined with over 600% floating profit, the profit buffer is thick enough, but the closer to such a threshold, the more cautious one must be. The low-level chip turnover phase is the easiest time for deep V-shaped spikes to shake out shorts; the tail-end space has extremely low cost-performance and is not worth risking everything.
Core profits have already been secured; absolutely no greed for the tail end. Close out over 80% of the main position at the current price to lock in profits, keep the remaining base position stop-loss pinned at the cost line, and closely watch the 0.1 threshold. If it breaks with volume, leave the base position floating; if volume shrinks with stagnation or sudden spikes occur, take all profits immediately. Protecting real cash is the key; high leverage only eats the body of the fish, not the tail. Maintaining steady rhythm is the way to keep playing. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Risk Signals
· Spot trading volume has sharply contracted: Glassnode points out that the combined daily average of Bitcoin spot trading volume and ETF transaction volume is about $6.8 billion, which is below approximately 90% of observations since January 2024, indicating a significant cooling in market activity.
· New inflows far lag behind outflows: The total new inflows from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate purchases amount to only 12.8 billion, with outflows being less than 40% of total inflows. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC #跟着OKX打卡2049 $MAGIC just got dumped right after I followed it. I originally just wanted to catch a few points of fluctuation, but as soon as the fluctuation hit take profit, I immediately realized the coin's market maker started unloading chips at a high level to dump the price. Sure enough, in less than half an hour, it dropped over 40 points. The ants who chased the short positions got liquidated directly. If there are still brave players, just wait for a rebound to short. I'm going to sleep now; the ant positions don't have much to do with me anymore $CRV
CRV shows a clear rebound; can stablecoin trading demand directly explain the holding returns?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.3353—0.3677 USDT, change +7.94%, trading volume approximately 3.76 million USDT.
The quote maintains a relatively high range position, but protocol trading demand, fees, incentive costs, and holding rights are different variables. Even if front-end trading is active, income may be offset by subsidies or costs, requiring separate verification.
If there is no evidence of fee improvement and the rise is retraced, first reduce the value realization judgment; if net income improves in sync with clear rights and the pullback maintains a higher low, then increase the fundamental explanation.Finally waited for it! Damn, it was really not easy at all, ambushing this manipulator all day long, I just knew this manipulator would definitely push it up!
Looking at that 24U in the historical positions, I stared at the screen several times, my eyes even got a bit teary. It's not much money, but this grudge is so important.
What kind of days have I been through these past two days? BTC long and short both got crushed, I go long and you dump, I go short and you pump. SAND got liquidated in just over ten minutes, my account sees red every day, losses made me question life, even wanted to rush into the screen to give the manipulator a beating. I felt like a fool, no matter how I operated it was wrong, being repeatedly crushed by the manipulator.
But today, I held on. I didn’t chase the highs or sell the dips, just kept my eyes fixed on STRK. During the day it hovered around 0.070, grinding my mentality to the brink, but I just didn’t get off. I knew this manipulator was holding a big move, I knew after the shakeout it would definitely pump. I just waited firmly on the ride.
At night this big bullish candle shot straight up, pumping all the way to 0.08957, a daily increase of over 15%. I closed at 0.086, +49.57%!
Manipulator, you finally acted like a human for once! How did you liquidate me before?
So satisfying, really so satisfying. This is not just about money, it’s that I finally caught the rhythm right once, finally wasn’t played by you, finally sat steadily on the ride you pumped.
$STRK
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 22%.
Hedge funds' positions betting on the seven giants of the US stock market have hit a historic high.
What does this number mean?
The bottom of the 2022 bear market was only 8%.
Now it's more than doubled.
In simple terms, these Wall Street players have piled all their chips on the same table.
It looks like confidence, but it's actually a hidden risk.
In crowded places, running is most likely to cause a stampede.
What does this have to do with the crypto world?
A lot.
If the seven giants get liquidated and crash, the US stock market will collapse first, then risk appetite will shrink, and high-volatility assets like $BTC will be the first to get drained.
Old players remember how it fell in 2022.
So now it's not about how much it will rise.
It's about watching when these people start to withdraw.
When they turn around, they're faster than anyone else.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC While others are busy switching jobs to the SOL Foundation, I'm busy agonizing over cutting losses
To be clear, last week I opened the sell page again, but in the end, I still didn't click.
Then I came across a news article dated September 24. After reading it, I closed the page. Two new people have joined the $SOL Foundation: a Chief Strategy Officer who was the global head of marketing at Binance for three years; and a General Manager of Payment Business with a background in payment infrastructure. The news also included some figures: so far this year, the stablecoin transaction volume processed on Solana has exceeded $5 trillion, on-chain real-world assets have surpassed $4.5 billion, and tokenized stock supply has broken 620 million.
What I'm pondering is the people. When senior executives from big companies switch jobs, it's different from us changing jobs; they are choosing their meal ticket for the next decade. Where these savvy people go is more telling than any analysis.
Of course, I still feel uneasy. The night before yesterday, I calculated my losses, and the more I calculated, the more alert I became. Then I remembered this news: people managing big business are jumping in, while I'm here with a few tens of thousands of yuan wanting to run away every day.
Isn't that embarrassing?
The move remains the same: hold on, dollar-cost average, don't look at profits or losses, look at the years.Remember October 11 last year? That night, over $19 billion in leveraged positions in the crypto market were liquidated, and many people woke up to find their accounts wiped out.
At that time, BTC plunged from above $120,000 to around $102,000, with a maximum drawdown close to 16%; ETH also suffered a heavy blow, dropping more than 12% in a single day, hitting a low near $3,400. (Reuters)
One year later, in early October, history seems to be repeating itself. BTC fell from around $87,000 below $81,000, a drawdown of nearly 7%; ETH briefly dropped below $2,400, with about $1.19 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, over $1 billion of which were long positions. The surge in US Treasury yields, geopolitical risks, and panic over AI cracking wallets all converged.
But what I’m more focused on is whether BTC has truly broken its mid-term trend support after this decline. As long as the 120-day moving average on the daily chart is not effectively breached, we cannot easily conclude that the major trend has reversed.
Next, BTC’s key level to watch is whether it can reclaim $87,000, while ETH needs to hold above $2,400 and recover key resistance. If macro pressures ease and capital flows back in, short covering could amplify the rebound.
The cruelest part of a bull market is sometimes not the crash itself, but that you endure all the previous pain only to be shaken out by the last wave of panic before the trend reverses. Don’t blindly go long, and don’t forget why you entered the market in the first place when everyone else is afraid. $BTC $ETH 【On-Chain Trading Activity｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $2,507.7
▪ Transaction amount this time: $1,880,771.26
▪ Leverage: 15x
Note: This address has earned over $238,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.90% $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB can represent three different perspectives: BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital level of the crypto ecosystem, and BNB indicates the willingness of capital flow in and out of the exchange ecosystem. Observing these three coins together provides a better judgment of whether platform coins and the CEF ecosystem have formed a sustained trend, rather than simply focusing on the price fluctuations of a single coin.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%
#贝森特拟查扣10亿美元伊朗相关加密资产 Sell other coins in hand and convert to $20 million HYPE, this listed company's portfolio adjustment is quite aggressive
A listed company sold its other holdings and moved the money into HYPE.
After selling other holdings on September 30, Lion Group increased its HYPE holdings to about 232,900 tokens, valued at approximately $20.1 million. Note the order of actions: sell others first, then buy HYPE. This is not adding with spare cash, it's portfolio adjustment, voting with their feet.
Buying coins by a listed company is on a different scale than retail investors. Retail investors just tap the screen, companies have to go through the board, do disclosures, and explain to shareholders. Willing to go through the full process for $HYPE and clear out old chips, this attitude is more straightforward than any research report.
$20.1 million can't shake the market, but the demonstration effect is valuable. The next company seeing this disclosure will find the calculations easier in their mind. 500 yuan challenge on the road to recovering 160,000
Day 8
Recently haven't been feeling well, and not really motivated to work
Live trading challenge diary
1. Fund status
Yesterday's funds: 789
Current funds: 784
2. Current main contract
$STRK still going long on STR, feels like a big rally is coming, no signs of pause for now, going long is totally fine