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Let's take a look at Solana. My view remains unchanged, and all the price levels remain the same. I'll put this at the very beginning. In this post tonight, I'll add new numbers for everyone. [Trading Suggestions] Direction: Short. Entry: Around 120. Increase: 125. Stop loss: 140. The price at 22:55 was around 119.7, already near 120. When it arrives, it's the same plan as before; if not, just keep waiting. Both 125 and 140 are far away, so there's no intention to move. [Technical Aspect | 1H] Binance Perpetual 1-Hour Moving Average, screenshot taken around 22:55. The screenshot shows 119.37, high 119.71, low 119.08, close 119.68, the lower shadow probing for a bit and then retracting. Recently, a red P mark has appeared above the top of the K bars, roughly at 120.4. Above that is the red area at 121.8~123.4, marked with 122.42; The line at 125 marks Weak High. Below is the green line at 117.93, the blue area from 116 to 118.4 is still there, and Strong Low (about 116.2) is at the lower edge of the range. Further down, the two blue zones 112.4~114.2 and 110.6~112 remain unchanged compared to evening. Comparing with OKX, the 10 PM bar peaked at 119.82, which is 119.77 during the day Gold surged to 4226 then retreated on low volume, next week's market forecast
Non-farm payrolls are positive, gold surged above 4200 but then sharply retreated on low volume, many are puzzled why the data seems ineffective.
Positive data does not mean an immediate one-sided rise; the short-term market has already priced in some expectations in advance. There is a possibility of further decline early next week, with a risk of breaking the 4110 low. Whether the benefits from improved employment data can continue depends mainly on upcoming CPI inflation data.
Before major data thresholds, it is not advisable to act rashly. For medium to long-term trends, wait for next week's monthly close to analyze further. $XAU #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT was submitted by Republican senators on September 30 and is currently just a Senate proposal, not yet voted into law. The core idea is to standardize tax rules for crypto assets, addressing long-standing ambiguous tax issues. It is a certainty bill long awaited by the industry, overall neutral to slightly friendly, but with pros and cons.
✅ Positive aspects
Under current rules, crypto assets are taxed as property, so even using stablecoins to buy things or pay small Gas fees triggers taxable events, making tax reporting extremely complicated.
1. Ordinary users using compliant stablecoins for daily consumption will no longer incur capital gains tax (traders and institutions are not exempt).
2. On-chain Gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from taxable recognition, solving the tedious tax reporting problem caused by frequent retail interactions.
3. Taxes do not have to be calculated immediately upon receiving rewards; income is recognized only when sold for cash, avoiding the issue of "paper gains without cash to pay taxes."
4. Crypto lending will directly follow traditional securities lending tax rules; traders can choose mark-to-market accounting, and foreign investors have a safe harbor rule, facilitating institutional entry.
⚠️ Negative constraints
The bill extends the US stock wash sale rule to crypto assets. If you sell crypto at a loss and buy back the same asset within 30 days before or after, that loss cannot be used to offset taxes, effectively eliminating the tax loss harvesting strategy commonly used by traders, which significantly impacts short-term high-frequency traders. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#DailyOrbit Let's take a look at the Ethereum section. First, here's the conclusion: my view remains unchanged, and the price level hasn't changed. Tonight's post is just updating the data. [Trading Advice] Short position: position near 2,780. Short stop loss: not set at the time, so risk control is up to you. Long position: light position near 2,650. Increase long position: 2,600. Long stop loss: break below 2,400 at 22:55. The price is around 2,681, almost the same level as in the evening. Up to 2,780, there's about 100 points; down to 2,650, it's about thirty points—neither end has touched yet. Whichever side lands first, plan for that side; For the price in between, there's no need to force a reason to sell. [Technical Aspect | 1H] Binance Perpetual Contract, 1-hour cycle, screenshot around 22:55. From 6:00 PM to 11:00 PM, OKX's high was 2,686.39 and low 2,676.2, grinding within the 10-dollar range. The screenshot showed a candle opening at 2,680.46, high 2,683.59, low 2,677.53, and close at 2,681.20—a small red candlestick. The green line at 2,691.47 was still holding down, and the price never rose above it, hovering below it all night. The red zone still hovered between 2,740 and 2,785, with the 2,769.00 mark and Weak High both holding in place. The bottom two layers of blue are priced at 2,650 to 2🔥"The three major coins go on a blind date, and sitting across the table is my principal"
$BTC: The quiet rich guy with over 84,000, steady indeed, but makes me "wait for fate" every day.
$ETH: The tired artistic guy at $2,670, with a big ecosystem, but the candlestick chart looks a bit bittersweet.
$SOL: The $119 esports chatterbox, constantly talking TPS and memes, but a fake breakout will leave you stunned.
Summary:
BTC is the quiet rich guy, ETH is the tired artistic guy, SOL is the flashy roller coaster.
None of the three guarantee profits, only one thing—heartbeat.
Falling in love with candlestick charts, in the end, it's always their cold indifference, and I write little essays.Today's reasons for being bullish on $ETH should not be limited to the price rising from 2691 to 2750
A nearly $60 increase in one day can improve sentiment but is insufficient to support a long-term judgment. My core basis remains that Ethereum provides open settlement, programmable accounts, and independent verification, while continuously reducing usage costs; at the same time, oracles, bridges, RPC, authorization, and frontend risks indicate that network adoption does not equal user security. If future transactions increase but users can only rely on a few entry points, cross-chain assets frequently lose redemption, and node thresholds continue to rise, then no matter how strong the price is, quality assessments must be downgraded. Conversely, short-term pullbacks do not automatically negate protocol capabilities, as long as security boundaries, exit rights, and real demand continue to improve. $ETH deserves long-term study, not because every rise can be linked to news, but because it can make complex systems more verifiable. Today's price increase is a market result; long-term value still needs to be proven by years of execution.
I will continue to track three types of evidence: whether the mainnet and scaling layers allow more users to exit independently, whether wallets clearly explain signatures and permissions, and whether nodes and data services remain diverse. If activity growth only comes from subsidies, and fee reductions are accompanied by data and entry point concentration, long-term judgments must be penalized; if costs decrease, security boundaries become transparent, and real settlement demand expands simultaneously, short-term price fluctuations are just noise. Being bullish does not mean rejecting counter-evidence, but rather explicitly stating in advance which facts would make me change my judgment. $NIGHT is biased towards the long side, with positions increasing by 28% in one day and moving in the same direction as the price. The new leveraged entries are chasing the price as longs, not pressing it down as shorts. Liquidations are also on the same side: the amount of liquidated shorts exceeds that of longs, indicating this rise is driven by short stop-losses being triggered, with contrarians fueling the market. The fee rate has remained stable for three periods, which is just background information and not a valid reason. The chart shows a bullish moving average alignment, volume-increasing bullish candlesticks, and a breakout above the previous high, consistent with the conclusions drawn from the positions. However, the 15.9% volatility means the new longs have dispersed costs, making higher positions more fragile. Next, let's look at two key levels. The upper level at 0.0531 is the 24-hour high; breaking above it will continue to trigger stop-losses of remaining shorts, pushing the market further up. The lower level at 0.04581 is where new longs have the most concentrated stop-losses; a pullback that does not break this level means the position is stable. The condition for a bearish reversal: breaking below 0.04581 while positions do not decrease indicates new longs are trapped and new shorts are taking over, signaling a directional reversal.Today's $NIGHT almost gave me a taste of what it means to have "fast hands but a slow heart."
I originally just planned to cautiously add a bit to my position, but due to an operational mistake, my position instantly ballooned.
At that moment, I didn't even have time to think:
This isn't adding to my position; this is directly throwing myself into a high volatility zone.
Once altcoin prices fluctuate rapidly, the time you have to correct mistakes is really very short.
I quickly started managing my position, placing orders first, then breaking them into multiple small orders to slowly exit.
The most dramatic part came next—
The price stopped right at a critical point, actually giving me a chance to catch my breath.
Reducing my position bit by bit, I finally got all out.
Then I checked my account:
No loss, actually made a profit.
Just moments ago it was "I'm doomed,"
A few minutes later it turned into "Haha, still alive."
Today's biggest profit isn't how much I made,
But a reminder to myself:
In a high volatility market, the thing you must not lose control over is not the market,
But your own hands.
$NIGHT, today you really cut me some slack.
The position has been fully managed; I won't participate in the market going forward.
I really learned a lesson this time.
#NIGHT #Crypto #Altcoins #TradingDiaryLet's take a look at Bitcoin. My view remains unchanged, and all the price points are the same. Today, I'm talking about it for the third time, and the meaning is the same. Tonight, this post will focus on one thing: update the latest data. [Trading Advice] Direction: Go long (original plan, now just for reference) Entry range: 83,000~83,500 Add points: 81,000 Stop loss: 78,000 Take-profit points: 86,000 Current attitude: If you can take profit, you must exit, no new entries are being called out. Everyone should remember the previous surge to a high and then pulled back. So this rebound tonight is not a reason to chase back. If you still have positions and the price gives take-profit points, just follow the plan and exit. I'll save this set of numbers for everyone to compare with; new entries are also not included in this post. [Technical Aspect | 1H] This chart is also from Binance perpetual contracts with a 1-hour cycle, taken at around 22:55. During the early morning wave, the price dropped below 84,000, and OKX recorded a low of 83,826.4, after which the price gradually rose. During the day, it was almost always stuck at 84.4xx~84.6xx, but at 8 p.m., that candlestick started to rise, reaching a high of 84,947.7 (OKX) at 9. At the time of the screenshot, it was 84,813.9. That candlestick opened at 84,824.6, high 84,824.7, low 84,708.8, closing slightly below the open, making it a small doji. Extra price just below the current priceThe $85,000 sell wall that has capped Bitcoin for nearly three months has finally been cleared. Glassnode data shows that the heavy sell liquidity around $85K has either been absorbed or pulled from the market. Above $87K, the order book looks noticeably thinner, leaving more room for a potential upside move. Shorts are backing off while bullish positioning is building. CryptoQuant’s Accumulation Trend data is also flashing an unusual signal: a sharp compression in the volatility range. Similar The most misleading thing about this wave of $BTC might be — it’s actually still going up.
But I’m getting more and more hesitant to chase longs.
The market currently feels very “comfortable”:
Price is slowly rising, dips aren’t deep, and sentiment is gradually warming up.
But the problem is —
A truly strong trend requires sustained active buying, not just pushing the price up bit by bit by grinding time.
My short position on $ETH is still open, with an average entry price of 2701.99.
There has been some profit retracement, but I haven’t changed my original view just because of a few rebound candles.
Same with $AAVE, the trend is more resilient than expected, and the bears haven’t seen a real acceleration yet.
So here comes the most interesting part:
Did the bears misjudge, and is the market ready to break upwards?
Or is this slow rise continuously attracting long capital, leading to a rapid directional choice at the end?
Adding recent employment data, ETF fund flows, and geopolitical tensions causing market disturbances, short-term volatility could amplify at any time.
The biggest danger now isn’t necessarily a rise or a fall, but mistaking “not falling” for “must rise.”
I will keep watching key levels and capital flows, not stubbornly holding based on guesses.
If the direction really plays out, the market will naturally provide the answer.
High leverage carries extreme risk; position management is more important than predicting direction. The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #AAVE #CryptoGuys, this strategy of only going long, holding tight, and not adding to positions is on the right track. No shorting, no adding to positions, light positions—these are all good habits for survival. Mi Ge has said it a hundred times: retail investors shorting is going against the trend, and hoping to add to losing positions only leads to zero or countless losses.
But the problem lies in coin selection. You need to pick coins with high trading volume, high popularity, and where retail investors cluster. Sounds reasonable, but when popularity peaks, that's often when the pump-and-dump operators are ready to unload. If you rush in and hold 1x, coins with real value can recover if you hold on. Purely speculative trash coins lose popularity, the pumpers run off, exchanges delist them, and they end up worthless.
You say you only look at sentiment, not news, which can work for short-term trading. But completely ignoring news risks hitting hard traps like delisting, scams, or regulatory crackdowns. You can avoid trading on news, but you must understand what dangers the news hides.
This strategy is essentially venture investing: you invest in 50 projects, most lose money, a few big winners cover the losses. The premise is you must have the ability to screen projects. Without that ability, just chasing hot coins means those 50 investments are 50 total losses. Holding junk coins is like slow suicide. Don’t be fooled by survivors that multiply tens of times; the 99% that didn’t make it are lying on the floor.
Which do you think is harder: coin selection or position management? $BTC $ZEC $CT BTC breaking $86K doesn't mean chase $BTC at any price.
The better question:
Can buyers defend the reclaimed levels?
Breakout → retest → hold → continuation.
That's the structure worth watching.
NFA. DYOR.$BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%$PLTR The Pentagon is establishing an "Autonomous Combat Command," aiming to complete it by October 1, 2027. It will be a four-star joint service command coordinating drones, unmanned vehicles, unmanned boats, military AI, and autonomous decision-making systems. Autonomous combat spending will triple, with a drone/anti-drone budget reaching $74 billion. Warfare is shifting toward "software-defined," with the core being the integration of multi-domain unmanned platforms into a unified kill chain. Palantir's Foundry/Gotham/AIP handles data fusion, intelligence decision-making, and execution closed loops; Maven has become an official U.S. military project, TITAN is its main contractor, and NGC2 also relies on its data grid. The company's U.S. government revenue and contract backlog are strong, but its valuation is very high. In the long term, PLTR is a scarce target in defense AI decision-making layers and deserves focused attention. $SUI Tonight's recovery is more promising than this afternoon. Around dusk, it was near 1.154, and by evening it returned to 1.182, close to last night's 1.185 level. Previously, I was worried about missing the rebound, but now the price has indeed pulled back a bit, so the judgment needs to be adjusted accordingly.
However, don't rush to look further ahead just yet. After approaching last night's level, whether it continues upward or gets pushed back is the next thing to watch. I'll be a bit more optimistic than this afternoon, but it's still not time to chase confidently. If the pullback can hold this gain, it's more meaningful than briefly touching 1.2.
$AAVE This evening it hovered around 180, slightly lower than at dusk but still above noon's 177.6, maintaining about a 17% gain over the past week. I think it's okay to keep observing for now; there's no need to turn bearish just because it retreated a bit. But it needs to push upward again. If it can't recover to around last night's 182 and instead gradually falls back to noon's level, the recovery strength will be discounted.
$BICO The rebound this afternoon had already partially retreated by dusk. It was around 0.0223 in the afternoon and dropped back to about 0.0217 by evening, indicating that the gains after the bounce are hard to hold. Here, I'll be more patient and wait to see if the next rebound can recover the afternoon's level. If rebounds consistently fail to hold, don't just focus on how much it once rose. Control your position first and wait for buying pressure to show more sustained strength.The rotation is starting to speak.
$BTC → setting the direction
$ETH → gaining strength
$SOL → higher beta
$XRP → joining the move
Once $BTC stabilizes, liquidity can start moving toward stronger relative performers.
Don’t chase the candles. Follow the flow.
NFA. DYOR.$SAND just sent a major signal! Upbit lifts the investment warning on SAND, this is the real trigger behind today's explosive surge
Many thought it was just a simple oversold rebound, but now the source is found: South Korea's leading exchange Upbit officially announced the removal of all trading notes and investment warnings for Sandbox SAND.
Once the news broke, it directly ignited buying pressure, and the price responded by surging, reaching a peak increase of +22.01%; the Korean market has always been highly sensitive to metaverse legacy coins, and this announcement is not an ordinary notice but a clear signal of regional liquidity reopening.
Breaking down several key points:
- Previously, the long-standing investment warning meant many Korean institutions, whales, and compliant funds were restricted from participating; lifting the warning means local trading permissions and capital access in Korea are reopened, giving incremental funds a reason to enter.
- It coincides with a low-level rotation window: the long-dormant GameFi-metaverse sector already had funds quietly positioning, and this announcement directly became an emotional catalyst, combined with a significant volume increase leading to a large bullish candle.
- A very realistic downside must be stated clearly: the positive news is already out in the open, and part of the price increase has been realized; the market can easily follow the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" script, with years of trapped positions piled up above. The probability of wide-range volatility and intense shakeouts ahead is very high, so this is not the time to blindly chase in. Today's Hit $NIGHT +1.52% | Criticism Set Tone Bullish $NIGHT Today invited to the complaint table, set tone for a bullish pullback. Current price $0.0498, recommend entering long on a pullback to $0.0460, stop loss at $0.0420, target first the 7-day high at $0.0531, then $0.0580, 5x leverage. In short: 7 consecutive bullish moves from $0.025 to $0.053, price doubles, trend in the hands of the bulls, but $0.0531 was broken twice in two days without holding steady. The dealers are too suspicious of midnight trading, chasing long positions can easily get stuck in the pins, pullbacks to support are more cost-effective. Cardano leader Hoskinson paid $200 million to back this privacy chain. The project team has money and connections, but the biggest fear for retail investors is the rich project team—they distribute goods much more efficiently than poor projects. Holding out at 5x to stop loss only means losing 10% of the margin, which is much more reassuring than the guys chasing at 8x highs. $NIGHT These 7 days of candlestick charts are like a midnight drama, focusing on midnight volume for you to watch. On 9/26, the market opened at $0.0263 and the lowest was $0.0252, fluctuating within one cent all day, with volume only 1.82 million U, and no one took it seriously; On 9/27, it rose 3.96% and closed at $0.0278, with volume only 3.02 million, still no one cared; On 9/28, it suddenly surged 13.96%, closing at $0.0Approaching 11:30, I shifted my focus to privacy coins in the evening session—$ZEC spot is around 1301, down about five points from the 24-hour open at 1372, with a daily high touching 1379 and a daily low dipping to 1271, and a trading volume of roughly 45 million U.
The contract open interest is about 160 million dollars nominally, with a slightly positive fee rate of about 0.01%. This week, the Grayscale ZCSH fund reportedly saw a net outflow of about 90 million dollars, compounded by privacy regulation noise, the market sentiment is relatively tight. The big coin $BTC is hovering around 84,800, and $ETH is about 2681. In the short term, watch the 1270 area carefully—don’t break it lightly, and don’t rush to bottom fish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #ZEC #Zcash #PrivacyCoin #ETFOutflow #USSeptemberNonfarmOnlyIncreasedBy29KUnemploymentRateRoseTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowFundsCoolingDown #USIRelationsRemainTenseG7ToReleaseUpTo100MillionBarrelsReserve #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market has risks, please be cautious when entering #USSeptemberNonfarmOnlyIncreasedBy29KUnemploymentRateRoseTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowFundsCoolingDown #USIRelationsRemainTenseG7ToReleaseUpTo100MillionBarrelsReserve markets.这波行情来得非常突然，但现在真正值得关注的，并不是 SAND还能涨多高，而是这次突破能不能真正站稳。 此次上涨受到韩国部分交易所解除此前交易警示等因素推动，同时成交量和未平仓合约也明显放大，市场关注度快速升温。 📌 目前重点观察：$0.068–$0.080 ➤ 如果SAND放量突破并稳定站在 $0.080上方，后续市场可能继续测试 $0.10附近。 ➤ 如果只是快速拉升，随后又重新跌回 $0.068–$0.080区域，那么这次上涨就可能演变成一次假突破，短线波动也可能明显加剧。 所以现在不急着追高，先看价格能否守住突破区域。 真正的强势，不只是拉出一根大阳线，而是突破之后还能站稳。 👀 $SAND $BTC $ETH #SAND #TheSandbox #Crypto #Altcoins #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit"In the same market cycle, why do some people double their money while others lose everything?"
When the market is up, everyone makes money; when the market goes down, that's when you find out who's swimming naked. The difference between those who profit and those who lose is never luck, but two completely different information habits.
Those who make money focus on "slow information": logic, cycles, fundamentals. Decisions form slowly and execution is disciplined—buying because the logic holds; selling because the logic has changed, regardless of price.
Those who lose money focus on "fast information": price, emotions, hype calls. Chasing the rally is driven by emotion, holding onto positions is due to luck, cutting losses is forced by panic; no action along the chain is well thought out.
So don't rush to figure out "how to break even"—breaking even is a result, not a method. First, change three things: switch your information source from group chats to official channels; reduce the number of times you check prices from a dozen times a day to two or three; replace "what others think" with "whether the logic has changed."
One more thing for those who make money: holding on is harder than making money. I've seen too many people make money based on logic, only to lose it all due to overconfidence. The market rewards those with logic and punishes those who don't respect it; always leave room in your position.
The crypto world has never been a game of "picking the right asset," but a game of "managing yourself." The former determines how much you earn, the latter determines how much you keep.
Investment involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute investment advice.I finally understand why every time I feel like "it's about time to stop," the market teaches me a lesson...
A few days ago, when $ZEC dropped to around 1400, I was thinking:
"It has fallen so much, it should be time for a rebound, right?"
So I decisively entered the market.
But as soon as I got in, the market showed me what it means to "catch a falling knife"...
1400 → 1316.
During this drop, my position took a big hit.
The most painful part isn’t the loss,
but that just when you think you’ve finally caught an opportunity, the market immediately tells you:
you see support, but others might see liquidity.
Looking back at the capital flow, the enthusiasm for BTC and ETH spot ETFs has also cooled down, and macro data has added uncertainty to the market.
So now, what I fear most isn’t the drop,
but the illusion the market creates that "it has already fallen a lot, it won’t fall further."
Is $ZEC really brewing a rebound,
or is 1316 just a pit stop before the next round of decline?
This time, I’ve decided not to bet on the market’s mood.
I’d rather miss the rebound than become the last one holding the bag trying to "catch the bottom."
#ZEC #BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #CryptoZEC从 1412美元附近回落至1318美元，而我在 1385.52美元 建立的空单也顺势进入明显浮盈。 从技术结构来看，EMA5、EMA10和EMA20依旧向下运行，短线趋势暂时仍偏弱。与此同时，$BTC 表现疲软，宏观环境的不确定性也在增加，市场波动可能进一步放大。 不过现在最重要的不是继续追空，而是保护已经到手的利润。 行情越是快速下跌，越不能因为短线顺风就放松风险控制。关键位置、成交量以及BTC后续表现，都值得继续观察。 交易机会重要，但仓位管理永远排在第一位。 $ZEC $BTC #ZEC #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagementIt's not that complicated
The market is currently in a rather awkward phase, with weekend fluctuations controlled around 300 points, which is more uncomfortable than drawing an ECG. At this time, it's essential to maintain patience, but trading crypto is all about trading expectations. After the non-farm payroll data was released on Friday, the market fluctuations did not meet the expected upward movement ⬆️. Overseas stock markets, on the other hand, hit new highs, with most funds flowing into US stocks and US bonds. There are still many risks outside, and the Middle East issue remains unresolved. Personally, I lean towards a greater opportunity to move south and suggest trying a short position at the 85500 level.$NEAR's positive news is genuinely positive, but unfortunately, the timing is off. NEAR Intents' fee revenue in September hit a new high for the year.
Hyperliquid's perpetual contracts have privacy mode enabled by default, and on the first day of launch, confidential balances exceeded $70 million.
Is this data solid? Extremely solid. Privacy combined with a high-performance public chain, along with Hyperliquid's hype, makes the fundamentals practically a perfect narrative.
But glancing at the market, it’s disheartening. From 1.8 it surged all the way to 5.58, tripling in value.
Now the daily MACD shows a high-level death cross, STICK momentum has turned green, and the price has fallen back to 4.63.
This is a typical phase where the main players use good news to sell off and distribute at high levels.
Honestly, at this point, who wouldn’t be confused? If you chase the highs, the 5.0 to 5.5 range above is full of trapped positions, ready to be smashed at any time.
If you try to bottom-fish, it just started the first wave of decline from the peak, and the profit-taking below is still very abundant. It really is a "pity it’s not the bottom."
This round of good news came at a high of 4.6, which is just a bull trap.
The real bottom will only appear after these profit-taking positions are trampled and cleared out, and the price falls to a point where no one dares to call a bottom.
I absolutely won’t FOMO now; I’m sitting on the sidelines watching the show.
Good projects need good prices too. If I miss this wave, so be it—consider it experience gained.
I’ll wait for it to drop thoroughly or for the overall market to truly stabilize before I come back to pick up the bloodied chips.
Going in now is just throwing money to the manipulative whales; I refuse to be cannon fodder!These past two days, I finally experienced the “speed” of altcoin contracts again.
During the $PENGU wave the day before yesterday, I directly followed the short direction and took a position. After getting the direction right, the whole process was indeed comfortable, felt like I could even add a chicken leg to dinner.
On the other hand, $PONS gave me a harsh lesson.
A while ago, I heavily held it in spot, enduring for a long time. I kept averaging down the cost, and when the rebound finally returned near the cost, I directly exited.
No profit, no loss.
But shortly after, this guy plunged today...
All I can say is: some coins really shouldn’t be emotionally attached to.
But I still want to try once more.
$PONS’s buyback and automated burn mechanism have been implemented, which at least makes me willing to reobserve its rebound capability.
So today I tried a small 5x long position, with risk boundaries set in advance, not gambling on unlimited moves.
My idea is simple:
If the rebound gives an opportunity, take a bite and leave;
If it doesn’t move out, admit the mistake and exit.
As for the $XDP I bought yesterday, I’ve already sold it.
Not that it’s bad, but the volatility is just too low—the worst thing in contracts is not losing, but the market not moving for a long time.
Lately, I increasingly feel:
Altcoins can be studied, but don’t get emotional.
If you see the right direction, execute;
If you see the wrong direction, retreat.
We come to the market to trade, not to “support” any project for the long term.Many people go through this cycle: the price rises and I didn't buy, so I switch to the next one; just after switching, the original one takes off again; the newly bought one stagnates or falls, breaking my mindset, so I switch again. It looks like constantly "chasing hot spots," but in reality, it's continuously raising your own cost and exhausting your patience. The tens of times price surge is essentially the result of "a few people holding on," not the product of "many people frequently trading."
When the coin price hits a historical high, the community cheers, but when you look back at your account, you find you haven't really earned much, or are even losing. This is not just your problem.
The market truly rewards those who are prepared before the rise and who are not cleared out during the fluctuations, not those who only see the price going up.Altcoin markets can rise by dozens of times, but most people still lose money. The reason is not the market itself, but how people participate in these multiples.
First, you profit from "the segment you hold," not "the segment it has passed through."
A single candlestick may rise 50 times from bottom to peak, but you usually don't buy at 1x; you dare to enter at 5x, 10x, or 20x. It can still rise afterward, but once it retraces 30% or 40%, your cost becomes a resistance level. The main players build positions where "no one dares to buy," while you take over where "everyone confirms the trend." Essentially, you and the main players are not participating in the same segment of the market.
Second, you can't withstand retracements, but the main players use retracements to shake out chips.
A true main upward wave almost always comes with intense volatility. It may rise 3 times then retrace 40%, then rise 5 times and shake out half again; this is normal in altcoins. But most people start doubting themselves once their unrealized profits shrink: Is it the top? Is it going to zero? So they sell during the shakeout and buy during acceleration, repeatedly. The trend hasn't ended, but their positions are gone first.
Third, you hold an "emotional position," not a "cycle position."
An emotional position is characterized by wanting to add when it rises and wanting to run when it falls; watching the market every day, every bearish candle feels like an alarm. A cycle position is the opposite: it is built when your emotions are lowest and the market is cold; retracements are just part of the process, not a threat. Most people lose not because they chose the wrong direction, but because they use a short-term mindset for mid- to long-term trading.
Fourth, frequent switching is more fatal than missing out. SOL has fallen about 1.9% in the past 24 hours, rebounding from around $117.05, then gradually moving sideways and currently mainly trading within a narrow range of $119.17–$119.57, with short-term volatility noticeably contracting. More notably, current trading volume is less than half of usual, and open interest has dropped about 4.7% from yesterday. This means new capital is not significant, with more existing positions waiting for direction. There is still some selling pressure above, but bulls have not broken through with significant volume, and bears have not yet formed sustained declines. The market seems to have been "paused," with no real direction yet to emerge. 🔥 In the short term, focus on two key positions: ➤ Break above 119.57: watch for continued volume growth ➤ Break below 119.17: watch for further tests near $117 Meanwhile, US nonfarm payrolls in September were only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%; BTC and ETH spot ETF funds are also diverging, and market risk appetite still needs to be observed. Therefore, there is no need to rush to guess the direction at this point. The more SOL is compressed, the more attention is needed for subsequent breakouts. Wait until the range is truly broken, then observe whether trading volume and capital keep pace. $SOL $BTC $ETH #Solana #SOL #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #加密市场 #非农 #现货ETF #资金流向Finally finished a busy day, took a shower and lay in bed intending to sleep early, but my fingers slipped and I checked the market again. After the last glance, my heart felt colder than an unheated blanket——money, the more you look, the less you have.
$BTC
Down 1.6% in 24 hours, currently at 84,586. It surged to 87,219 during the session but was pushed back down, wiping out all the gains. The long positions hanging above lose a bit every time I look, and my heart sinks along with the K-line.
$ETH
Down 1.76% in 24 hours, currently at 2,682. It stubbornly can't hold above 2,700, with support barely shifting to around 2,670. The long positions in hand feel like they've been immobilized, slowly bleeding downward.
$ZEC
Down 4.87% in 24 hours, currently around 1,333. The ETF saw $93.6 million outflow in a week, with $21.83 million liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions. It has dropped 21% from the high of 1,690, and those who chased the highs are all buried. I didn't chase, but just watching it sends chills down my spine.
Summary: One last look before sleep, lose a bit; another look, heart turns cold. Numb from the drops, stuck in losses, scalp tingling. Personal vent, not investment advice. Brothers, I really can't hold on anymore
Yesterday $BTC Bitcoin suddenly surged over 2000 points, and my short position was almost liquidated. My hands were shaking at that moment, and I was trembling, feeling like I was just a little away from liquidation.
I put my entire year's salary into this, and last night I really almost couldn't hold on.
Fortunately, Bitcoin suddenly plummeted afterward, giving me a second chance.
But I still can't be happy yet; the unrealized loss remains, and the danger is not over.
Currently, this BTC short position:
-150.36%
Opening average price: 83,546.6
Latest transaction price: 84,803.0
Honestly, this wave really broke my mentality.
Now I have only one wish:
Big Bitcoin, please drop below 80,000!
Let this short seller get some profit, give me a way out 🥹
Brothers, do you think BTC can drop below 80,000 this time?
Let's chat in the comments, are you bullish or bearish now?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 10.3 Day 5 Real Trading Recovery Record
Today's profit -12.40u, return rate -11.71%
Honestly, I was a bit stuck today
Got heavily beaten by $ZEC and $PUMP in the early morning
The daytime situation looked bleak, so I didn't open any positions
Later I opened two altcoin trades, one win and one loss, breaking even
In the evening, I opened a $ARB trade
Held it for almost 6 hours
It kept fluctuating around my entry line
Really tough to handle ⊙︿⊙
The market was so good yesterday but I didn't trade 😢😭😢
Oh well, the money is still there, the market will always have opportunities
Lost today, so be it
Keep a good mindset in the market
Wondering if any altcoin will let me get a free ride this weekend
🥵🥵🥵🥵🥵🥵(;﹏;)Who would have thought that institutions that were previously cautious suddenly raised BTC's 12-month price target from $82,000 to $113,000. Citi stated that the return of ETF funds, increased crypto market activity, and improved macro conditions were key reasons for this adjustment. (Reuters) Even more interestingly, BTC recently surged above $86,000, then fell back to around $84,000, clearly intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The latest market analysis also shows there is significant selling pressure near $87,000, so the short-term trend is not a one-sided rally. (crypto.news) Looking at a few positions I hold: 🔹 $SOON short positions previously lost nearly -170%, but now have returned to +31.8%. This reversal really gave me a breather. 🔹 $CT Short positions have expanded from about +35% to +176.4%, making this position quite impressive. 🔹 $USELESS Long positions remain very tough, with floating losses at -94.8%, almost back to the margin of principal. It can only be said that this trade did not develop as expected. The current combination is quite interesting: two short positions are making money, while one long position remains under pressure. Citi's latest target price has pushed market discussions back above $110,000. Meanwhile, Citi expects crypto investment products to potentially raise about $5 billion in the next 12 monthsI’m the mid-term intelligence guy!
Latest news: the SEC approved 3x leveraged ETPs tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
This expands the leverage toolkit and could amplify short-term volatility in $BTC and $ETH. But leverage cuts both ways—pullbacks can also accelerate.
Mid: this is less about a pure bullish signal and more about traditional capital markets expanding their leveraged exposure to crypto and commodities.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出$BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%$AMD Damn it! This AMD chart is giving me high blood pressure. Outside it's quiet, but inside the market it's dog-eat-dog. The 631.5 level was forcibly pushed up by capital, clearly the manipulator is raising the scythe. The candlesticks are pulled up weakly, volume can't keep up, a typical bull trap shakeout. As an old hand, I directly shorted, set stop loss at 640, if it breaks then accept it. Don't chase the high, buying at this level is just handing food to the manipulator. If you want to follow, check the AMD market card below carefully before making a move, control your position size, and always set a stop loss. Which side are you on this round? 👇👇👇$BTC $ETH market feels frustrating.
PCE cooled and September NFP came in at just 29K, but U.S. stocks rallied while crypto faded after the initial pump.
BTC rejected $87.2K and sits near $84.6K.
$85.5K–$86K → reclaim for another $87.2K test.
Above $87.2K → $88K+ possible.
Below $83.8K → watch $82K, then $80K.
ETF inflows remain positive but are cooling. ETH looks weaker than BTC, so $83.8K remains the key level to watch.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%$PUMP The most worth watching this time might not be the word "buyback" at all.
A $400 million buyback plan sounds substantial,
but the market's answer is very straightforward—the price has still dropped about 83% from its peak.
What’s even more alarming is the fundamental change:
Revenue dropped from 33.83 million to 11.31 million in one week;
market share slid all the way from 98% to 24%.
Meanwhile, legal disputes surrounding the project continue, and related lawsuits are weighing on market sentiment.
So the real question is:
Can the buyback actually change the ongoing selling pressure?
Or can it only temporarily support the price without altering the flow of funds and market share?
What’s more intense is that Machi Big Brother previously went long with 5x leverage, and public data shows its unrealized loss once reached about $8.8 million.
At this position, it’s no longer just about "daring to bottom-fish,"
but whether you truly understand what you are betting on.
Will $PUMP make a desperate comeback, or continue to teach the market a lesson?
DYOR, don’t let "falling a lot" automatically mean "bottomed out." $BTC saw a slight rebound on low volume over the weekend, with the first take-profit for this long position set at 86111. The 4-hour candlestick is currently consolidating; to short on a breakout, observe whether the 50 moving average will be decisively broken. If the price closes below the 50 MA at 84000 and fails to rebound above it, you can enter a short position, taking partial profit near the 120 MA around 82444. The last support level on the 4-hour chart is at 80555; a decisive break below this would expand the bearish trend into a daily-level pullback.With $ETH and $SOL, the important factor is not just price increase but the ability to sustain cash flow after the breakout. The 30-day data shows ETF $ETH increased by about $764.2M and $SOL by about $248.3M, while on the 1/10 session, $ETH outflow was $55.4M and $SOL outflow was $1.1M. Trading hypothesis: if subsequent sessions see cash flow returning along with increased volume, the uptrend structure will be more notable; if price rises but cash flow weakens, avoid chasing the price and wait $LINK
Why can't it be called a reversal after the low point rebound?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 13.2—14.651, with a trading volume of about 11.54 million USDT.
The morning quote has not yet recovered the window starting point of 14.386. First, repair this part of the loss, then test the supply near the high point, only then can the judgment of reversal be gradually improved.
I will observe whether the volume subsequently breaks through 14.651 and holds on the pullback; if this structure appears, the judgment of continuation will be strengthened. The opposite risk is insufficient support and failed recovery; if it breaks below 13.2 and the rebound cannot recover, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.Places where money shrinks actually don't cause fatal crashes.
Leveraged funds' short positions decreased by 5,300 contracts in a week.
Long positions are also exiting; the entire market shrank by 13% in a week.
This is from the latest futures trading data released by the CFTC in the report cycle on October 2.
Is this bearish or bullish?
I think neither.
It's just a change of players in the market.
Think about it, who was smashing the market before?
Those who played with borrowed money.
They got liquidated and forced to cut losses.
Now the leverage has been cleaned out.
Those who want to smash the market have no holdings.
They can't even push the price down.
This bottom is actually a bit more solid.
As of now, BTC is around $84,500.
Also, are you still waiting for volume to pick up or for confirmation?
Let me tell you, institutions buy in when the data looks the worst.
By the time the data looks good, the price has already settled.
What you're doing isn't waiting for confirmation; you're just carrying the market for others.
These reports come out many times a year.
Every time, some shout for a rise, some for a fall.
Have you ever seen anyone get it right?
If right, they stay silent; if wrong, they pretend they never said anything.
Data itself is neutral; only those who talk about data have biases.
So just look at one thing: whose money is currently in the market.
Markets played with borrowed money feel nervous when prices rise.
Markets without borrowed money feel secure even when prices fall.
This time, what I see is the latter, valid for about 3 days, no predictions, just for fun.
What do you think? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, the market's mood changed.
The US added only 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, while the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. The data isn't great, but the market's reaction was even more direct—BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turned to net outflows, and the capital heat clearly cooled down. Originally, there was hope that the market could give long positions some breathing room, but a big bearish candle wiped that out instantly, and sentiment was immediately reset.
In the past couple of days, BTC and ETH have moved as if coordinated, collectively diving. Just moments ago, there was still hope for floating profits, but then the account curves started heading down. The mood of long holders can probably be summed up in two words: "sweating".
But what really makes people uneasy isn’t BTC or ETH, it’s ZEC.
When BTC and ETH drop a bit, ZEC can crash a lot; once the market enters a long liquidation phase, ZEC is often the one that suddenly collapses the hardest. The current script is likely: BTC dives, ETH follows, market sentiment turns cold, bulls start cutting losses, leveraged funds keep liquidating positions, and then ZEC suddenly hits a big drop. If BTC falls 5%, ZEC might directly give you 20%.
If another long liquidation wave comes, longs might really have to give up in October.
Markets always top out in celebration, fall in hesitation, and accelerate in despair. And bulls often die just before the turning point. One bearish candle changes sentiment, three bearish candles change belief $BTC $ETH $SOL Again and again, it's so satisfying to eat, no money then go public—this sentence really hits the nail on the head, stripping Wall Street down to its underwear.
Look at these numbers, valuation between 1.8 to 2 trillion, ringing the bell before Thanksgiving, Broadcom directly providing 42 billion in financing, and SpaceX's computing power agreement reaching as high as 84.5 billion.
This is not about doing AI at all; this is clearly an unprecedented capital siphoning machine! Why the rush to go public?
Because the speed at which computing power burns money has far exceeded the private equity market's tolerance limit, they must hurry to open the doors and let retail investors and fund holders in the secondary market share the cost.
For the crypto circle, this is a typical "siphon effect."
Massive funds chasing IPOs and speculating on AI concept stocks will drain the already scarce liquidity in the market.
With poor non-farm data and recession clouds still looming, the crypto circle is already anemic, making it even harder for the market to have a big rally; BTC and ETH will most likely continue to bottom out.
But I'm not worried at all. While traditional institutions are partying hard, I will firmly hold my small patch of the crypto world.
Playing long contracts these days has been hit hard by the data; I have come to realize: don't chase these macro hot topics that are doomed to fail. They are listing to cut Wall Street's share; if I blindly rush in, I'll just be cannon fodder.
The strategy is simple:
First, don't touch any AI concept stocks, nor chase newly launched AI concept coins.
Second, slowly buy BTC and ETH spot on dips, treat drops as dollar-cost averaging, and never use leverage.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Trading, which is more important: process or result? During holding period, every day someone shouts ZEC will rise to 3000 or even 5000. Market jumps up and down, lot of noise, and mindset repeatedly beaten down. I'm not sage; can't precisely time top, nor perfectly catch bottom. In this market, I can only make money with high probability. So, in trading, which matters more: process or result? I think both important. Result determines whether you can survive, but process determines whether you cNonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 90,000, but the actual increase was only 29,000. Employment is not as strong as anticipated, reducing the reasons for a rate hike in October a bit.
However, $BTC surged to around 87,200 last night, then fell back to the 84,000 range. Today's rebound has not yet recovered above 85,000. Considering a short on the rebound tonight, with the target near the previous low.
Direction: short on rebound
Support: 84,400–84,520, 83,800–84,000
Resistance: 85,100–85,480
Entry: After a rebound to 85,100–85,300, if the 1-hour candle closes below 85,100, consider shorting on a pullback to 85,080–85,180 in the next hour; if no pullback occurs, abandon this round.
Stop loss: 85,580
Take profit: first at 84,480, then at 83,900
Invalidation: If the 1-hour candle before entry closes above 85,480, or if no trade occurs and price reaches 83,900 first, cancel the plan.
This order is valid until 12:00 noon on October 4, after which the order will be canceled and any open intraday positions closed. Whether to open this trade depends on if the price can fall back from the resistance zone. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Recently noticed a change.
Previously, when people talked about AI Agents, the focus was more on discussing model capabilities.
But now, more and more projects are starting to address another issue:
How do AI Agents make payments?
Circle's recently launched Agent Stack aims to give AI Agents their own USDC wallets to complete automatic payments and settlements.
I think this might be more important than model upgrades.
Because once truly entering commercial scenarios, AI is not just about answering questions.
It also needs to:
• Call APIs
• Purchase data
• Pay for services
• Collaborate with other Agents
So recently, when I look at AI projects, I pay less attention to just the narrative.
I focus more on:
- Whether on-chain transactions are increasing;
- Whether stablecoin usage is growing;
- Whether AI is really starting to generate real payments.
I usually check these data first on Ave.ai.
Many trends first appear on-chain before becoming hot topics.
Do you think the biggest breakthrough for AI Agents will happen first in models or in payments? Last night, the Nasdaq hit a new high, but BTC failed to break higher and fell back again. What’s next?
Both the US stock market and BTC are basically playgrounds for "risk-taking money," but they rely on different things:
- The US stock market is backed by AI orders, companies actually making money, and buybacks supporting it. People are willing to chase what they "can see and trust."
- BTC’s recent rise from 57,800 to 87,000 mainly depends on ETF money coming back, short covering, and sentiment recovery. Once it hits 85,000–88,000, those who were previously trapped and those who bought at the bottom want to "take profits," so it naturally struggles to go higher.
On the 4-hour chart, 87,000 was tested twice but rejected, yet the price still clings to 83,800–84,200, and the moving averages (MA120, MA200) are slowly pushing up.
So this isn’t a "top," but rather a "failed breakout, with some consolidation and shaking out at a high level."
ETF money is still flowing in, but BTC can’t break 87,000, indicating institutions haven’t left, but selling pressure above is heavier than expected.
From now on, just watch these three zones:
1. 86,000–87,400: Resistance zone; don’t get overly bullish if it can’t break through.
2. 83,800–84,200: First support; holding here is relatively strong.
3. 81,500–82,000: Trend defense line; if broken, don’t stubbornly hold on.
For a real bullish turn, it needs "volume expansion + a firm close above 87,400."
Conversely, if the US stock market keeps rallying and ETFs keep flowing in, but BTC falls below 82,000—that’s real weakness, don’t fool yourself.
To sum it up plainly: it’s not crashing now, it’s "people selling on top and others buying below, just consolidating for now." Don’t chase, don’t panic, just wait for it to choose a direction 🍵
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC