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Just saw Oracle's earnings report, and this time the market finally looks beyond the story.
Oracle's AI cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% year-over-year, even stronger than last quarter's 93%. Both revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, remaining performance obligations rose from $638 billion to $664 billion, and orders continue to be fulfilled. Although data center capital expenditures remain high and free cash flow is under pressure, the company maintains its full-year spending plan and has raised its performance guidance. The market responded positively, with after-hours trading up 1.6%. On the other hand, Adobe also delivered better-than-expected earnings and raised its full-year guidance, but its after-hours stock fell 2.29%. Why? Because the market remains cautious about the pace of AI commercialization; guidance alone is not enough, real cash flow is needed.
AI competition is shifting from investment scale to execution capability. Oracle's earnings report is highly regarded because it proves AI investments are starting to translate into revenue growth, not just burning cash. For BTC, this logic provides indirect support. Capital expenditures for AI infrastructure are still expanding, with Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon all investing heavily in building data centers. Fiat currency credit continues to be consumed, and the long-term narrative for non-sovereign assets remains unchanged. But in the short term, the market focuses more on inflation and interest rate hikes. BTC is oscillating around 76,900, and the direction depends on tonight's CPI.
Financial data is just the entry ticket; execution capability is the pricing anchor. That's all from me, think it over. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% $BTC $ETH $ZEC I used to think the biggest risk of buying TSLA was Elon Musk, but later I realized I was too young.
The same TSLA, three ways to buy it, and the ways you lose money are completely different:
Stock: If TSLA falls, I lose money. There's a clear culprit to blame.
Stock tokens: You have to watch the issuer, custody, asset backing, and redemption. Just because the stock is fine doesn't mean the product isn't problematic.
MEXC stock contracts: You can play with USDT, and if you meet the activity conditions, there's Zero Fee, so the cost is really attractive—but Zero Fee doesn't mean Zero risk. Direction, leverage, forced liquidation, liquidity, none of these are absent.
In short:
Stocks fear price drops, tokens fear mechanism issues, contracts require caution against your own leverage.
Zero Fee reduces trading costs, not investment risks.
Don't end up with NVDA only dropping 3%, saving on fees but losing your position.
Which one do you choose: stock / stock token / stock contract? I think tonight's CPI data will most likely not have any big surprises. It might be similar to yesterday's PPI, with the data coming out roughly in line with market expectations, representing a fairly standard result.
In the current environment, if the CPI significantly exceeds expectations, it would only further reinforce rate hike expectations. But the problem is, doing so could easily cause the market to crash outright.
Since a rate hike is most likely still coming in the end, I think providing data that meets expectations and having the market proceed as originally expected with a straightforward rate hike is actually the safest approach.
However, if they force a CPI figure that is significantly below expectations and then decide not to hike rates because inflation has come down, that would seem too contrived. In the current environment, if the Fed tries to produce an especially favorable number just to avoid a rate hike, it could instead damage its own credibility along with the U.S. Treasury market.
If they really don't want to hike rates later, there's no need to manipulate the CPI data. They can simply release data that meets expectations, then work on quickly lowering oil prices while gradually laying the groundwork for the narrative that the energy shock in this CPI cycle is temporary and unsustainable.
This way, if they don't hike rates later, the market will be more accepting.
So my prediction for tonight: CPI will meet expectations and won't create too much surprise for the market. $ETH 【Thought 03】If I were a big money bull, I might not want to mindlessly blow up all short positions before the CPI. Because pulling ETH too high now will cause three problems:
First, the subsequent cost of adding positions becomes more expensive.
Originally could buy at 2450, now pulled to 2500, can only buy more expensively.
Second, the bulls themselves become crowded.
If all shorts are wiped out, the market is left with a bunch of chasing high long positions. If tonight's CPI is slightly hotter:
No shorts to cover and support the price, instead all are long stop losses.
The decline speed could be very fast.
Third, the good news is overdrafted in advance.
If everyone pulls from 2430 to 2520 in advance due to expected CPI good news, then even if the core CPI tonight is really 0.2: the good news has already been traded.
It may instead appear: expected good news realized, buy the expectation, sell the fact.
So truly smart big money does not necessarily pursue killing all shorts before the data.
More likely prefers: pulling the price to a position favorable to themselves but not extremely crowded. Probably around 2460–2470, at most extending to near 2475.
2460–2470: comfortable.
2470–2480: starting to enter the contest/short squeeze zone.
2480–2500: already prone to becoming crowded trading.
Above 2500: if CPI is not yet released, there is a risk of overdrafting good news in advance.The market expects a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with a core of 2.4%. But the real killer move isn't the numbers themselves—the probability of a rate hike—CME data has surged to 72.4%, compared to 49% a week ago. In other words, the market has already priced in "this time it might actually take action." Why is PPI important? Because prices on the production side will eventually be passed on to the consumer side. In August, commodity prices rose 1.1% month-on-month, and energy prices jumped 4.2% in a single month, accounting for more than three-quarters of the commodity gains. Brent crude has already surpassed $100, and the beast of inflation is seeping downstream from upstream. BTC is now hovering near 77,000, down for four consecutive days, and has already lost 3% this week. The perpetual funding rate is near the neutral zone; bulls lack confidence, and bears don't dare to push in—everyone is waiting for the CPI hammer. Tonight, three scenarios are being laid out in advance, with Master Ye presenting in advance: CPI exceeds expectations (year-on-year breaks 3.5%, core breaks 2.5%): rate hike probability jumps directly from 72% to 90%, the first target for the pancake is 76,000, and if it breaks, 74,500 is the target. Brothers chasing above 77,000 will be fuel tonight. CPI meets expectations (3.4% year-on-year, core 2.4%): the boot is on the ground, may crash first and then rebound in the short term, but rate hike expectations will not dissipate. Rebound to 78,000-78,500 is the window for short positions to enter. CPI below expectations (year-on-year 3.2%-3.3%): rate hike probability has fallen, so the market can catch its breath, but don't get too excited. The FOMC meeting on September 16 hasn't started yet, so what is the rush?Even though it's a pullback, ZEC, SOPH, and PUMP have three completely different 'dead methods.'
Let's look at $ZEC first.
It fell from 1296 all the way to 1053, with a maximum drawdown of about 18%.
The drop looks significant, but the key is the volume behind the drop. Yesterday's single-day turnover reached $350 million, 1.2 times the seven-day average.
This volume drop is more like chips accelerating turnover, and does not necessarily mean funds are withdrawing completely.
Today, the volume has started to shrink and stabilize again, indicating that bulls and bears have temporarily entered a phase of game competition.
Looking at $SOPH, this one is clearly much worse.
On the 7th, it surged from 0.0058 all the way to 0.0139, but within two days it plunged back to 0.0042, a drop of nearly 70% from its peak.
This kind of rapid rise and even steeper fall often means that funds ride news and sentiment to surge quickly, then distribute at high levels, and the final buyers are basically chasing gains.
Finally, $PUMP.
In fact, it is the most exhausting kind.
There was no one-day crash, but rather a daily dip of one or two points, gradually pulling back 25% over a week, with trading volume remaining lukewarm.
This kind of trend is the easiest to mislead:
"Not much has dropped, but it should be about to rebound."
But in reality, prices keep falling and capital doesn't take on any significant support, which is often the most important thing to be wary of.
So although these three coins have all pulled back, their nature is completely different:
ZEC is a turnover on high volume, SOPH is a rally distribution, and $PUMP is more like a low-volume bearish drop.
Among the three trends, I am currently paying more attention to $ZEC.
A drop in volume at least indicates that capital is still playing games in the market; the story may not be over.
Of course, whether they can truly break through will depend on subsequent trading volume, key support, and capital support.
Of these three in your hands, which one are you still holding right now?
#PPI高于预期, tonight's CPI will set its direction
#财报观察员: Oracle AI Cloud Revenue Up 121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 September rate hike probability breaks 70%! Before next week's rate decision, don't blindly bottom-fish $BTC
As of September 11, the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting has climbed to 71.3%, surging from the 60% mark in just one week, almost fully pricing in this month's rate hike expectation.
This shift in expectations gave bulls no time to react: August PPI significantly exceeded expectations, with month-on-month growth hitting a 5-month high. Energy prices surged over 6% in a single day driven by Middle East tensions, upstream inflation pressures rebounded again, directly breaking the market's optimistic forecast of "inflation continuously falling." Coupled with the ECB's recent rate hike, global central banks' anti-inflation stance is fully intensified. The hawkish signals released by Waller at Jackson Hole continue to ferment, causing the market to switch from a "delayed rate cut" trading logic to pricing in a "rate hike this month."
The US Treasury market has already fallen in advance: the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching the 5% psychological level, the 30-year yield hit a new high since 2007, the US dollar index remains firmly high, and global risk assets are facing capital outflows. Naturally, the crypto market cannot remain unaffected. Xinhua News Agency. This repeated failed breakout in Bitcoin's rebound essentially reflects capital pre-pricing this major negative factor.
Currently, it is a typical "expectations lead, repeated bottoming" phase. Before next week's rate decision, it is difficult to see a large-scale reversal.
In terms of operations, do not chase highs; a rebound to resistance is an opportunity to reduce positions and short high. Consider buying on dips at key support levels.
Keep positions within 30%, reserving ammunition to wait for the rate decision. Pay close attention to Waller's post-meeting remarks — whether it is "one rate hike and done" or signals that there is still room for further hikes, which will determine the medium-term trend.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 This CPI is a bit more interesting than usual.
A month ago, the market wasn't as serious as the Fed raising rates again, but now the situation has changed.
At the July FOMC, although the Fed ultimately kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%, three members had already voted directly in favor of a 25bp hike.
In recent weeks, strong economic data, rising oil prices, and yesterday's PPI release:
Quarter-on-quarter: +0.4%
Year-on-year +5.4%
As of today, the market has priced in a 25bp rate hike in September at around 70%.
But in the latest Reuters survey, about 70% of economists still believe the Fed will keep it steady next week. So tonight's CPI may be a data point that signals a convergence in expectations from both sides.
Current market expectations:
CPI month-on-month +0.4%
CPI year-on-year +3.4%
Core CPI +0.2% month-on-month
Core CPI year-on-year +2.4%
If tonight's core CPI month-on-month remains around 0.2% or even lower, I think this recent "September rate hike deal" might cool down first.
If it comes out at 0.3%, it's likely to be the current awkward situation: a high probability of a rate hike, but not fully confirmed yet.
If the core rate goes straight to 0.4% or higher, things would be different. 🙈 With employment still stable, PPI hot, and energy driving up inflation,Capital rotation is surging beneath the surface😰? Narrative reconstruction is the key to breaking the deadlock!
#CryptoTreasuryDifferentiation: Buy coins or buybacks?
The foundation of $ARB lies in Ethereum scaling and the expansion of the Orbit chain ecosystem. Going forward, closely watch the number of Orbit chain deployments, cross-chain TVL, stablecoin liquidity, active developers, and sequencer revenue. If more protocols and capital settle into the Arbitrum ecosystem, and the revenue return mechanism gradually clarifies, ARB's valuation anchor will shift from "L2 leader" to "decentralized infrastructure platform." Technically, if it completes a long-term bottom accumulation followed by a volume breakout, and then stabilizes on lower volume during a pullback confirming support, the chip structure tends to be healthy; however, token unlocking pace and ecosystem incentive decline remain core variables suppressing valuation.
$XRP's narrative focuses more on the regulatory clearing and revaluation of a veteran cross-border payment asset. The network consensus is stable and liquidity deep, but trend-driven rallies still require real payment demand and incremental capital resonance. Key metrics to watch next include ODL channel transaction volume, on-chain payment counts, exchange net inflows, and changes in long-term holding addresses. If capital diffuses from high-beta new narratives to low-expectation veteran assets, and XRP breaks out with volume above years of consolidation resistance, the catch-up rally space is easily amplified by sentiment; conversely, if volume fails to sustain, price surges are more likely short-term pulses.
Both paths are essentially connected: ecosystem data determines the valuation floor, capital rotation determines the elasticity ceiling.
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 Bitcoin has fallen for a week, but does that mean a rebound opportunity has arrived?
On September 4th, I indicated a negative signal for Bitcoin, and since then Bitcoin has started to adjust, having continuously pulled back for a week, dropping from a high of 82,300 to a low of 76,460.
From the perspective of capital flow, Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds have had net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a large net outflow exceeding $400 million just yesterday.
The cumulative net outflow over the past three days is about $896 million, already surpassing the approximately $892 million cumulative net inflow during the surge from August 19th to 21st.
Looking at volume and price relationships, the average daily down volume from September 4th to 10th is higher than that from August 28th to September 2nd, indicating that recent selling pressure has indeed increased.
Therefore, from a mid-term perspective, both capital flow and volume-price relationships still support my mid-term bearish view.
From a short-term perspective, I believe there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
Yesterday's down volume was less than on September 4th and 8th, indicating that short-term selling pressure has eased.
At 8:30 tonight, the US August CPI data will be released.
The PPI data released yesterday was generally strong, and market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly heated up (over 70%).
Therefore, even if tonight's CPI remains high and further pushes up rate hike expectations, the market may have already priced in some of the negative factors in advance. From a short-term trading perspective, the 75,500 support level is temporarily unlikely to be effectively broken, and the probability of a short-term rebound in Bitcoin remains relatively high$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Danger signals? ETF net outflows for two consecutive days
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
BTC spot ETFs have clearly cooled off these past two days.
On September 8, there was a net outflow of about $46.6 million, and on September 9, another outflow of $120.2 million, totaling approximately $167 million over two consecutive trading days.
And this time it's not just Grayscale.
ARK's ARKB saw a single-day outflow of about $78 million, GBTC outflowed $27.2 million, and even BlackRock's IBIT had an outflow of $19.5 million.
On September 3, there was a single-day net inflow exceeding $730 million, and last week the entire week attracted nearly $1 billion. But after BTC hovered around $80,000 for a few days, ETF buying suddenly hit the brakes.
However, it's still a bit early to say institutions are running away.
Since September, BTC ETFs overall still show net inflows, and earlier buying far outweighs these recent outflows.
What concerns me more is that this change coincides exactly with BTC's price movement.
BTC has struggled to hold above $80,000, and ETFs have shifted from aggressive buying to consecutive outflows, indicating institutions are starting to hesitate.
If tonight's CPI comes in hotter again, BTC will face more than just interest rate pressure.
Even the most stable recent buying needs to be watched closely.That afternoon surge, I reduced my position according to discipline when the Hang Seng Index's decline narrowed.
It's not bearish; such rebounds to positive territory are usually driven by a few heavyweight stocks, and once the momentum traders disperse, it falls back. I was betting it wouldn't hold until the close.
But the index held, with Sunny Optical and Xiaomi rising over 2%, and NIO, JD.com, Tencent, Meituan, and BYD all up about 1%. I missed out on that gain.
The lesson isn't about direction, but position size: judging the sustainability of individual stock rebounds based on the index's decline is inherently flawed. The index is the result, not the cause.
The next observation point is whether southbound capital's net daily purchases turn positive simultaneously. If only local funds are pushing, the quality of this rebound should be discounted.
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 $ETH 🔥Gas fees are almost free, but the mainnet's "deflation mechanism" is failing! The most awkward bull market for $ETH has arrived.
There's a critical point about ETH no one is discussing: the mainnet is too idle. In early September, only 1160.53 ETH were burned in 30 days, while about 87,700 new ETH were issued in the same period, meaning burns accounted for just 1.3% of issuance; the average base fee was 0.179 gwei, whereas maintaining a constant supply requires 13.384 gwei. This means that after L2s absorb transactions, the mainnet's burn logic is almost ineffective, with an annual supply growth of about 0.86%. But from another perspective, this benefits users: L1 transfer costs are extremely low, Arbitrum/Base/Optimism handle high-frequency transactions, institutions gain exposure through ETFs and staking without worrying about Gas. Current price is 2452, market cap 299.2 billion, down about 50% from the all-time high of 4953. The conclusion is mixed—short term depends on macro and defending 2400, mid term depends on ETFs + staking lock-up, long term sees L2 turning ETH into a "base settlement layer" rather than a "chain too expensive to use." No chasing highs, try longs at 2400, add on a 2550 breakout, deflation return depends on mainnet activity and fees rising. Not investment advice. $ETH $ETH 【Short Squeeze Thoughts 02】Fourth, it can improve the long positions' unrealized profits and risk status
If a batch of funds' long position average price is originally around 2440–2460, pushing the price up to 2480 or even 2500 in advance:
Unrealized profits increase;
Liquidation distance expands;
Margin status improves;
There is more room to withstand downward spikes when data is released.
Fifth, a short squeeze may trigger chasing buying funds
After the market breaks through a level that everyone is watching, three types of buying orders will appear simultaneously:
Short stop-loss buying + breakout trader buying + FOMO chasing buying.
So if 2470/2480 is effectively broken, the original rise may change from active buying by longs to:
The market forming a positive feedback loop on its own.
At this time, the funds that initiated the first wave of the rise can even reduce active buying and let other funds take over. #财报观察员：Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121% Oracle's earnings report takes the idea of "old tree blooming anew" to the extreme.
AI cloud revenue surged 121% year-over-year, with OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) becoming the growth engine. The stock price rose 0.86% in response, while Adobe fell 2.15%—both tech giants telling AI stories, but the market voted with its feet: computing infrastructure is more favored than application software.
Why? Because the certainty of AI's "shovel sellers" is higher. Large model training requires massive computing power, directly benefiting Oracle's cloud infrastructure. Although Adobe's Firefly AI is integrated into its full suite, its monetization speed falls far short of expectations, and the market fears it will be eroded by open-source models and free tools.
For the crypto industry, this differentiation is very enlightening: the value of underlying infrastructure is being repriced. Computing power, storage, and networks—these are the "water, electricity, and gas" of the AI era. Bitcoin miners, decentralized computing power networks, and storage protocols all stand on the same logic.
The AI cake is being sliced differently. $ETH $BTC $ZEC $ETH 【Short Squeeze Thoughts 01】 There are large-scale long positions in the market that push high-leverage shorts upward before major data releases, which has several practical benefits.
First, the most direct: turning forced liquidations of short positions into fuel for their own price rise. Longs love this structure because they don’t have to bear the full cost of the rally; shorts are forced to pay for the rise. Short liquidations essentially require buying to close positions.
Second, clearing the “upside powder keg” before the CPI release assuming tonight’s CPI is actually somewhat bullish. If there are many shorts piled up above before the data release, then after the data comes out:
Real buying + algorithmic buying + short liquidations
may happen simultaneously.
This can of course cause a sharp surge, but the problem is that liquidity is very poor at the data moment, and prices can easily become very volatile. If some shorts are cleared before the data, the market structure becomes cleaner:
Pre-clear leverage → post-data direction is more likely determined by real macro funds.
For longs who already hold large base positions, clearing the most fragile shorts early can reduce some momentary game uncertainties. However, there is a double-edged sword here: clearing shorts too thoroughly beforehand also means less short squeeze fuel when the data is released.
Third, turning key resistance levels into support levels assuming:
2480 was originally a sell wall, but if longs force a break above it before the CPI and the price doesn’t immediately fall back:
2480 resistance → 2480 support.
At the data release tonight, the longs’ starting position will be completely different.Oracle rises, Adobe falls. The AI bull market isn’t over—but simply mentioning “AI” is no longer enough.
$ORCL delivered strong revenue and cloud growth, sending shares higher. $ADBE showed explosive AI-related ARR growth, yet shares fell as investors questioned overall growth.
The market now wants proof: AI → revenue → margins → cash flow → profit.
The winners will be companies that turn AI hype into real money. 🚀
$ORCL $ADBE $AAPL
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% Before tonight's CPI release, what the market lacks most is not directional judgment but the distinction between "data" and "trading reaction." For the same inflation data, if US Treasury yields fall, it means expectations have already been priced in; if yields continue to rise, then the pressure from PPI will further transmit to risk assets. I will first check whether $BTC holds its relative strength, then see if $ETH and high-volatility assets have further declined. BTC resisting pressure and altcoins no longer weakening diffusely indicates that capital is making structural defenses; if both mainstream and altcoins are sold off together, that is a clearer signal of liquidity contraction. #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
Global central banks are simultaneously tightening the taps, this time pushing in three directions at once.
Europe: Last night saw the second rate hike, with deposit rates rising to 2.50%. Lagarde laid it out clearly: the Middle East conflict is driving energy prices, and inflation will remain significantly above the 2% target for a "considerable period." Europe is being forced to act by oil prices.
United States: PPI year-on-year at 5.4% exceeded expectations, month-on-month accelerated to 0.4%, with energy components as the main driver; diesel surged 24% in a single month. Once the data came out, market bets on a September rate hike jumped from 60% to 70%. Tonight's CPI is the real moment of truth.
My judgment: Europe has already acted, the US is waiting for CPI confirmation, but the real killer move is not in the interest rates themselves, but in the forced unwinding of yen carry trades. Trades involving borrowing yen and buying dollar assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars, once rapid yen appreciation triggers unwinding, all risk assets will take a hit. This happened once in August 2024, when BTC dropped over 20% in a week. This time the positions are even more crowded, with AI tech stocks' high valuations taking the brunt first. At BTC 76000, PPI has been hammered but not broken, but once CPI turns hot, the dense liquidation zone at 78000 and the demand zone at 76000 will both come into range. Holding the line means a breather; failing to hold means a chain reaction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 The probability of a rate hike is now 73%. The whole network is saying "It's definitely going to happen" and "$BTC will drop to 70,000".
I still say the same thing — no hike. So what if it's 73%? I said no hike when it was 60%, and now at 73%, I still say no hike.
Why am I so sure? Three reasons. First, Walsh is the new chairman; raising rates at his first major meeting is too risky. The first thing a new chairman does is stabilize, not stir things up. Second, the situation in Iran is still developing; hiking rates now would be like pouring fuel on the economic fire. Third, financial stability is more important than inflation. Yields are already at a 2019 high; hiking again would cause problems in the bond market.
Take a look at the timeline. Jackson Hole, Walsh hawkish, rate hike probability jumped from 35% to 60%. PPI exceeded expectations, pushing it to 73%. The market expectations are already maxed out. What does maxed out mean? It means even if they do hike, the price won't drop much because it's already priced in. But if they don't hike? That would turn a big negative into a big positive, causing a sharp rally.
This is an asymmetric opportunity — limited downside, unlimited upside.
From 76,000 to 77,000, build your position in batches. After next Thursday's FOMC, check the price again.
Believe it or not. We'll see the outcome next Thursday.
#FOMC #RateHike #Walsh #BTC #TimeTravelerWhat was really worth watching in the market last night wasn't how much BTC fell, but that the cost of capital went up again.
Brent crude surged 6.3% to $107.63, the 10-year US Treasury yield neared 5%, and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 49% to 71.3%. Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $282.7 million.
Many people's first reaction: institutions are running away.
I don't see it that way.
It looks more like capital is recalculating. Oil prices breaking $100, rising inflation pressure, the Fed's rate cut space being squeezed, and US Treasury yields continuing to rise. With the 10-year Treasury yield almost at 5%, it's perfectly normal for institutions to reduce some BTC positions in the short term.
This isn't a collapse of faith; it's an increase in opportunity cost.
More importantly, Bitcoin ETPs still have a cumulative net inflow of about $58.2 billion, and $ETH about $12.6 billion, so the base holdings haven't seen a full withdrawal.
Although Coinbase premiums have been negative for five consecutive days, the latest is only -0.042%. US buying is weak but hasn't completely exited yet.
So now I'm not afraid of ETFs flowing out $200 million or $300 million a day; what really needs watching is the 10-year US Treasury.
If yields continue to push to 5%, $BTC will still face pressure; if yields reverse, ETF funds will flow back, and the market could move faster than many expect.
BTC's real opponent now isn't the bears, but the nearly 5% US Treasury yield.PPI is not a bear market switch—it is a liquidity stress test.
$BTC $76.8K, $ETH $2.44K, $SOL $168 came under pressure after PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, with the market pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike. But the real signals lie in the dollar and on-chain: the dollar index surged then retreated, stablecoin supply did not shrink significantly, and BTC perpetual funding rates turned negative.
Technically, $BTC lost MA5/10/20 but remains above MA50; $ETH holds the 4H supertrend; $SOL shows relative strength leadership, while $XRP faces heavier selling pressure. If CPI cools down and US Treasury yields fall, liquidity could quickly rebound.
Is this a risk appetite retreat—or a shakeout before a breakout?
$BTC $76.8K, $ETH $2.44K, $SOL $168 came under pressure after PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, with the market pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike. But the real signals lie in the dollar and on-chain: the dollar index surged then retreated, stablecoin supply did not shrink significantly, and BTC perpetual funding rates turned negative.
Technically, $BTC lost MA5/10/20 but remains above MA50; $ETH holds the 4H supertrend; $SOL shows relative strength leadership, while $XRP faces heavier selling pressure. If CPI cools down and US Treasury yields fall, liquidity could quickly rebound
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The lively red and green on the screen is the jumping red-green scene, but below it looks like reefs exposed after the tide recedes—that's the honest market today. Have you noticed that the more everyone is looking for excuses, the less important they actually are? SanDisk was quoted at $1,694.50, down nearly 70 dollars in a single day, almost 4 percentage points. This company in Milpitas, California, makes flash memory chips used in phones, laptops, and data centers running AI at full capacity. It hadn't had any accidents this morning; what changed was the cost, and these stocks are always the first to pay for costs. That's the whole story of today's trading. I stared at this segment for a long time because it wasn't about any single company. BTC also fell back to around 77,000, triggered by PPI exceeding expectations. Two markets, two types of assets, all led by the same line—that line is called inflation expectations. The key position is at 76,500. If it's really broken through by force, the lower level will open up, and moving between 74,300 and 72,200 will wash out those chasing the breakout. But what cares more isn't the price itself, but the sentiment structure. The current situation is a lot like a narrative fatigue period: bulls don't dare to increase, bears don't dare to hold heavy positions, trading volume is shrinking, and everyone is waiting for a signal to convince themselves. What really alerts me is the other side. Expectations of rate hikes are heating up, with Brent crude surging to 107. Oil and interest rates rising together mean the ceiling of risk appetite is being pushed down, making it harder for altcoins to catch upIn the Federal Reserve's economic forecast for June 2026, the median projection for the federal funds rate in 2026 is about 3.85%, higher than the current target range midpoint, reflecting the policymakers' continued tolerance for maintaining relatively high interest rates at that time. Meanwhile, open market pricing shows significant divergence among investors regarding the next move as the September meeting approaches; such divergence itself tends to increase BTC volatility around CPI, employment data releases, and officials' speeches. The 9–3 vote result in the Fed's July decision also indicates that the committee's views on policy balance are not entirely unanimous.
Therefore, what matters more for BTC is not just the final rate level but also:
Whether the statement emphasizes inflation risks more or employment and growth risks;
Whether the dot plot raises the future rate path and whether the chair's press conference changes market pricing for the subsequent meetings;
Whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise or fall after the decision.
Dollar movement: often the fastest market feedback
The dollar is not a mechanical inverse indicator of BTC, but it often serves as an important risk appetite gauge during macro shocks. If the FOMC signals hawkishness and both the dollar index and real Treasury yields rise simultaneously, BTC usually faces increased short-term pressure; if the dollar falls and yields decline, BTC's liquidity environment may improve.
Currently, BTC is around the $77,000 level, indicating that the market has already been cautious about macro uncertainty ahead of the FOMC.`BTC HOLDS, ETH LAGS` — Standard risk-off downside scenario
*Market Comparison*
**Coin** **Current Price** **Status** **Interpretation**
**$BTC** | `$79.2K` | `Holding 78K` | Yesterday dipped to `77.6K` but was bought back. `78K` has defensive support
**$ETH** | `$1,872` | `Stuck at 1900` | Still can't rise. Clearly weaker than BTC
The `79.2K` level is very critical. Yesterday it broke below `77K` causing panic, now it has pulled back, indicating the liquidation wave between `76.4K-77K` washed out weak longs
*Why is ETH lagging?*
There is only one reason: `ETH/BTC is falling` = capital prefers BTC
In a `risk-off environment`, the logic is as follows:
1. *BTC* = ballast stone + gold substitute. `#BTC and gold 90-day correlation rose to +0.50`, when macro is chaotic, everyone buys BTC for hedging
2. *ETH* = tech stock. With a 70% chance of rate hikes and high risk-free rates, `high beta ETH` is sold first
3. *Altcoins/dogs* = move last. They only get liquidity once BTC is stable
So right now it is `BTC-only rally`, not a `broad rally` StonkFun is a Launchpad on Solana, with its biggest feature being the ability to pair new tokens with tokenized stocks and other assets. $stonk
More importantly, its value capture:
Real trading fees
→ Protocol revenue
→ About 60% used to buy back $STONK
→ Continuous Burn 🔥
Currently, over 10% of the initial supply has been burned.
What I focus on more is the data:
StonkFun has generated millions of dollars in protocol revenue over the past 30 days, with a large portion of the revenue ultimately going into $STONK buyback and burn.
This perfectly matches my current token screening logic:
Real users + real revenue + revenue returned to the token + buyback + burn.
Of course, the risks are also obvious:
Competition among Solana Launchpads is fierce, and whether STONK's revenue can be maintained long-term still needs to be observed.
But at least for now, it has entered my watchlist.
Next key points to watch:
1️⃣ Whether protocol revenue can continue to grow
2️⃣ Whether the buyback ratio can be maintained long-term
3️⃣ Whether the burn can consistently outpace new market supply
4️⃣ Whether market cap growth is faster than revenue growth
If revenue continues to grow and valuation does not spiral out of control, $STONK is worth continued tracking.
Not a recommendation, just recording a project under observation. DYOR.$BTC spot ETF continuous outflows
$BTC spot ETF has seen outflows for three consecutive days, totaling nearly 450 million. On 9/8, it was 46.65 million, on 9/9 it broke 100 million, and yesterday it directly reached 283 million. ARKB had a single-day outflow of 164 million yesterday; three days ago it was still seeing a net inflow of 138 million, this turnaround is faster than flipping a page.
The price also dropped, sliding from above 80,000 to around 77,000. Old names like GBTC and FBTC are all exiting, only Morgan Stanley's MSBT is still making small incremental entries. Interestingly, ETFs for $ETH, XRP, and SOL have actually turned positive, with funds moving elsewhere.
Looking at the market, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has soared to 0.96. This wave of outflows is inevitably related to the overall pressure on risk assets. Previously, 3.8 billion was absorbed over three weeks; now some of it is being released, which is normal. The key is whether the Federal Reserve's decision tonight can stabilize the market. If the 77,000 level cannot be reclaimed, then the support at 72,600 will have to be addressed.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 @OKX中文 Bitcoin dropped to 76,410 last night, now back around 77,200, stuck in the middle, unable to go up or down. Ethereum is at 2,460, SOL is grinding near 99.6. All three coins are waiting for the data at 8:30 tonight.
The bulls' base is still intact. Cardone Capital bought 20 BTC yesterday at an average price of 76,500; institutions are putting in real money. ETF funds for ETH and SOL have been continuously accumulating; the money hasn't left, just rotating positions. Last night, someone opened a long position of 911 BTC at 77,733 with 40x leverage, $70 million, liquidation price at 76,308, betting that 76,000 will hold.
But the round number of 80,000 has been tested three times in half a month and pushed back each time. Glassnode data shows that between 83,000 and 86,000, 1.07 million BTC cost basis is concentrated, forming a solid selling wall.
Tonight at 20:30, US CPI will be released; previous value was 4.7%, expected 5.3%. If it exceeds expectations, 76,000 may not be the bottom; if it meets expectations, suppressed buying pressure will likely rebound.
Before the data comes out, don't bet on direction, keep positions light. For BTC, place buy orders at 76,000-76,300, stop loss at 75,500, target 77,500. For ETH, buy at 2,400-2,420, stop loss 2,380, target 2,480. For SOL, buy at 97-98, stop loss 95, target 103. Don't chase after rises, don't panic on drops. #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 $BTC
Cardone Capital purchased 20 bitcoins at $76,500 each, incorporating them into a mixed asset portfolio of real estate and bitcoin.
My own feeling is that the transaction volume is not large, but the signal is more significant than the amount itself. The $76,500 price point is right in the sensitive range before the CPI release, indicating that some institutions believe this level is already worth allocating to, rather than waiting for a pullback below 74K to act. The mixed portfolio of real estate plus bitcoin is also quite interesting; using physical assets as a base and bitcoin for flexibility essentially provides traditional real estate funds with a compliant crypto exposure. If this approach is followed by more small and medium-sized asset managers, it could become a small but stable force in bitcoin buying.$NES Yesterday, the neighboring exchange swapped out Alpha 2.0 contracts and resumed trading. NES surged 23.29% in 24 hours to $0.1463, with a market cap of $20.99 million. But this rebound isn't fundamentals—it's the event that has been explained. In the early hours of August 24, attackers 0x9AE7 used Monero to buy $250,000 to buy NES, migrated to Nesa Chain, and used Cosmos EVM shared modules to exploit the StateDB balance overflow, inflationing their holdings from $1.11 million to $257 million, then migrating back to Ethereum, nominally stealing $50 million. #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Liquidity instantly drained, 5 million coins tried to exchange for 710,000 ETH but only got $1,928 back, making the attacker a net profit of $60,000, losing like a revolutionary martyr. The community really exploded. Rekt published an article titled "Nesan - Rekt," questioning Nesa's official statement on 8/24 stating "malicious activity detected and will be fixed," then 503 was down for a whole week, and Explorer had 0% uptime on 9/8. Cosmos Labs' 8/28 postmortem named MANTRA, TAC, and KiiChain. KiiChain was pulled 18 times by the same attacker, with 148 million KII wiped out, but Nesa was the only one not included. Rekt's exact words: "Can the three chains clearly explain which line was called and which line was extracted? The fourth one didn't say what was different, or who would say it's different?" Cosmos Labs was also exposed for launching Silen as early as May#BTC现货ETF连续流出
The trend of ETF has changed faster than flipping a page.
Behind this is actually a very obvious portfolio adjustment signal.
Don't just focus on the small amount of money flowing out of BTC. Look at the bigger picture now—CPI is coming out tonight, the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 70%, oil prices have broken $100, and U.S. Treasury yields are soaring. Under this kind of macro pressure, the first reaction of institutions is definitely to hedge risk and reduce leverage. BTC, as the most liquid reservoir, naturally becomes the primary target for fund withdrawal. This is not a fundamental problem but a defensive move under macro pressure.
What impact does this have on the crypto space?
First, short-term sentiment will definitely be under pressure. ETFs have shifted from buying to running away, so the market will naturally soften.
Second, there is differentiation within crypto assets. BTC is flowing out, while ETH and XRP continue to attract funds, indicating that money is not fleeing entirely but searching for assets with better value after the drop or those supported by independent narratives. If after tonight's CPI release BTC continues to flow out while ETH keeps attracting funds, it won't be simple risk aversion but a market re-pricing.
Here’s my view.
Money comes in fast and leaves fast too. Recently, continuous inflows have raised everyone's expectations, and now a little outflow makes people feel like the sky is falling, which is unnecessary. ETF funds track macro sentiment and are not long-term buyers of BTC. Once the CPI is released and macro pressure eases, the money that should come back will return. The key now is not to guess whether ETFs will continue to flow out tomorrow but to manage your positions and leverage well.
What do you think? $BTC Before the market opens, I first look at the chessboard, not the candlestick chart. The Red Sea line has been trampled by the opponent’s knight—Houthi forces are simultaneously striking commercial ships and Saudi energy facilities, which is like the opponent continuously checking your king’s wing, while the main diagonal line of Hormuz is already very tense. Brent has reached 108, WTI briefly broke 104, and the US diesel average price at 5.98 is approaching 6 dollars. This is not tactical harassment; it is a full-scale offensive from the flank to the center.
I have played chess all my life, and the biggest taboo is to mistake the opponent’s sacrificed piece for a blunder. The surge in oil prices is not a sacrifice; it is a prelude. The real killer move lies in timing: the White House says oil prices will not fall before the midterm elections in November, ceasefire is unlikely, and no agreement on production increase. Translated into chess terms—your opponent is not in a hurry; he is waiting for you to collapse on your own. Every extra day the Red Sea route is blocked consumes one of your pawns, one square of space, and a bit of initiative. What the market fears most is never the explosion itself, but that no one cleans up after the explosion.
Now, let’s talk about the chain reaction. Diesel approaching 6 dollars is the darkest move in the endgame; it doesn’t kill the king but locks down all your pieces—transportation costs, agricultural costs, chemical costs are all nailed down, and once the inflation pawn reaches the eighth rank and promotes, monetary policy will be forced to shift, and all risk assets will have to recalculate their moves. On the surface, it looks like a single energy front battle, but in reality, it is a flanking maneuver against the entire valuation system.
At this point, when looking at so-called tokenized US stock targets, such as those linked to manufacturing, transportation, and industrial heavyweights, what you should ask is not whether they rose today, but whether their underlying chess formation has been disrupted by this wave of supply risk. Many positions seem to be in the center but have long lost their roots; the opponent’s single pin forces you to lose pieces. True masters in this situation don’t chase hot spots but first calculate clearly: if the Red Sea line remains blocked for two weeks, whose cash flow will be checked first?
My judgment is straightforward: this is a midgame strangulation, not a blitz. Whoever can endure will have an extra passed pawn in the endgame. As for those who think the blockade will end in a few days—they haven’t even memorized the opening moves. #redseariskoilreturns100By 2030, AI inference is expected to account for 75% of data center workloads, while GPU's share may drop to 58.5%.
What we see: The training share declines from about 70% in 2023 to an expected 75% inference and only 25% training by 2030.
Another chart is even more striking — GPU usage in AI servers is declining from its peak, possibly down to 58.5% by 2030, with ASICs and others rising to nearly 40%.
I think this doesn't mean "Nvidia is immediately doomed," but the narrative is shifting from the training arms race to who can offer cheaper inference. Before tonight's CPI, don't treat all AI stocks as the same basket.
What to do: Prefer to observe rather than chase highs before data is finalized; the invalidation condition is if capital expenditure on inference continues to rise and GPU volume growth offsets price drops — then consider adding positions.
Do you believe GPUs will continue to gain share, or will ASICs take over?
$NVDA $AMD $AVGO #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction
#EarningsWatcher: Oracle AI cloud revenue up 121%The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%. This is not just cosmetic cracks; this is the load-bearing wall creaking.
I've been designing super high-rise structures for twenty years. What I fear most is not wind load, but foundation settlement. The current market performance is like a skyscraper that has topped out, suddenly realizing its pile foundation is sinking. The Producer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, with energy surging 4.2%. The probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed to 70%—this is not a design change; this is a revised geological report. The 10-year yield has reached 4.95%, the 30-year 5.37%, and the entire yield curve is rising, meaning the market-wide discount rate reinforcement has been thinned by one gauge.
The Treasury repurchased $5.19 billion in 10- to 20-year bonds, with a cap of $6 billion, but it didn’t contain the selling pressure. Besent made it clear: the repurchase is just to improve liquidity for old bonds, not quantitative easing. I know this well—it’s like flushing the pipes of an old building, not reinforcing the foundation of the entire structure. You clear the drainage, but the building is still settling.
What really alarms me is another pillar. Trump proposed giving every adult $5,000 after winning the midterm elections, with a potential cost exceeding $1 trillion. This is like adding three floors on top without adding piles or expanding the foundation. The load increases out of thin air, while the concrete strength is declining. Every project like this I’ve seen ends not with successful expansion but with the entire building being listed as unsafe.
Back to tokenized U.S. stock assets. Assets like $xAMZN essentially turn an already operating commercial complex into divisible ownership certificates. Its underlying cash flow, cloud business, and advertising business are the load-bearing structures that determine the token price. Interest rates rising above 5% create a new shear wall, limiting the lateral displacement of all overvalued assets. Tech stocks and their token mappings will see valuation multiples compressed—this is not sentiment, it’s structural mechanics.
My usual judgment standard is simple: the whitepaper is just a blueprint; the real project value is determined by the underlying architecture, development capability, and long-term scalability. The current macro environment is equivalent to lowering the load-bearing coefficient of the entire foundation. Tokens supported only by narratives without actual cash flow load-bearing walls will develop structural cracks in this round. Those with real income and moats, even if their appearance remains unchanged, have their internal reinforcement ratios passively increasing.
There is an iron rule in construction: when settlement occurs, the first cracks always appear on the thinnest wall. #us10yearyieldsnear5%Institutional flows are sending mixed signals.
ETF outflows continue, while 13F private-equity exposure rose 7.5% QoQ.
$ETH is attracting interest for its staking yield, while $BTC remains allocation-driven.
With Treasury yields still elevated, I’m staying patient until flows clearly converge.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #OKXThe leader has something to say
Oracle's earnings exceeded expectations. AI cloud infrastructure OCI revenue increased by 121% year-over-year, accelerating from 93% in the previous quarter. Both revenue and EPS surpassed expectations, with remaining performance obligations rising from 638 billion to 664 billion, and AI orders continuing to be fulfilled.
However, data center capital expenditures remain high, and free cash flow is under pressure. The company maintains its full-year capital expenditure plan and has raised its performance guidance. The market is more focused on AI investments beginning to translate into revenue growth.
Adobe also delivered earnings above expectations and raised its full-year guidance, but the market remains cautious about the pace of AI commercialization. AI competition is shifting from investment scale to execution capability. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
Oracle's stock surged to 168 before retreating to fluctuate between 158 and 161, indicating that the positive news has been partially priced in and profit-taking is occurring.
Currently holding long positions near 76,700, stop loss at 74,500, target between 80,000 and 81,000. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.The most annoying thing about inflation is not that it's high.
It's that even though it has slightly eased, variables like energy, tariffs, and AI infrastructure are adding fuel to the fire again.
What the Federal Reserve fears most is not a single bad data point, but inflation becoming sticky again.
Tonight's CPI, the market is trading on exactly this risk.Regarding your mention of the phenomenon "Tonight's CPI may be bearish, but the bulls still account for as high as 60%," this reflects the intense battle between bulls and bears in the current crypto market amid macro uncertainty, each side driven by different logics. Combining current market data and the macro background, the main reasons why bulls still hold a high proportion are as follows:
1. Continuous inflow of institutional funds and the "buying the dip" logic
Despite macro-level pressures, the behavior pattern of institutional investors is changing. Recent data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF, after a brief outflow, has resumed net inflows (such as consecutive days of net inflow in early September). This indicates that institutional buyers tend to use the current pullback as an opportunity to build positions rather than massively reduce risk exposure. This long-term capital support gives bulls the confidence to continue holding.
2. Divergence and battle of macro expectations
Although PPI data exceeding expectations has triggered rate hike concerns, the market still has differing views on the final outcome of tonight's CPI data. Some institutions (such as Citi) predict that core CPI may be lower than expected (e.g., 0.184%). Bulls may be betting that inflation data will cool as expected or even be lower than anticipated, thereby correcting the previous tightening expectations caused by strong non-farm payroll data. Additionally, before key macro data releases, some large holders choose to stay put and wait for the dust to settle, which also maintains relative stability in the market.#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测
The Danish central bank said that the usage rate of stablecoins in the country is very low and currently does not pose a financial stability threat, but the rapid global growth of US dollar-pegged stablecoins could transmit external turmoil through liquidity channels. They are currently cooperating with the European Central Bank to ensure that central bank money remains the main asset for interbank settlements.
My own feeling is that this statement is quite interesting—it admits they are fine themselves but worries that others' problems might spill over onto them. Denmark is small and highly open; the expansion of US dollar stablecoins is not a domestic risk for them but an imported risk. A deeper signal is that the European Central Bank system's vigilance toward US dollar stablecoins is increasing, and it may soon promote more euro-denominated settlement arrangements. The competition among stablecoins is gradually shifting from a market share battle to a contest over monetary sovereignty. $BTC If $ETH really moves now: break through 2470 → sell wall at 2480 gets eaten → quickly pull up to 2495
Then observe: whether the pullback to 2480 can hold.
If: 2495 → back to 2482 → then pull to 2500
This is very strong, because it means: the original short squeeze zone has turned into real support.
But if: 2495 → quickly falls back to 2470 → 2480 cannot be reclaimed
That means it was more just: a liquidation pulse, not a trend breakout.
Short squeezes are responsible for "pushing the price up," while real buying pressure is responsible for "keeping the price there."
So if tonight's CPI is positive, and ETH happens to be near 2470–2480, then there is indeed a very interesting combination:
Positive data + technical breakout + short squeeze
All three appearing together could lead to a very rapid rise.
But if it's just shorts getting liquidated without macro and spot capital follow-through, that rally might actually be very short. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Hot producer inflation is not yet a clean signal of broad price pressure: PPI rose 5.4% year over year, while core gained 0.2% on the month, slightly below forecast.
My read is that stronger yields and the dollar leave CPI with a higher bar to clear. If consumer inflation also surprises higher, the case for looking through the producer-price jump becomes harder to defend.
#PPIHotCPINext 📂 20U Real Account Record 027
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 This Trade Profit: Currently at a Floating Loss
✅ Cumulative Profit: About +40U
📌 Current Position: $SOL
After last night's PPI release, SOL directly dropped below 100. The current price is around 99.3
August PPI year-on-year was 5.4%, higher than the expected 5.3%, and significantly faster than the previous 4.7%. Energy prices are the main driver—Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100, with the US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices up, reigniting inflationary pressure from upstream.
After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.92%, and Nasdaq futures fell more than 1%. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a Fed rate hike next week has jumped from 64% to 74%.
Tonight there is also the CPI, with market expectations of 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. If CPI also comes in strong, a rate hike is basically certain.
But there is one signal I think is worth highlighting separately.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $347 million, of which SOL's liquidation amount was $17.51 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 95%. Longs are being cleaned out, but the position structure has actually become healthier.
At the same time, Solana's DEX trading volume in the past 24 hours reached $2.948 billion, ranking first among all chains. Fidelity's Solana spot ETF also recorded a net inflow of $900,000 yesterday. On-chain activity and institutional funds have not retreated despite the price drop. After trying out leveraged trading on OKX Wallet, it's basically just "going long means borrowing U to buy coins, short selling is borrowing tokens to sell." Compared to perpetual contract trading, how should I put it? All I have is leverage—nothing else... Oh right, the only difference is that you can borrow + stake + exchange for trading. Simply put, you use real u as collateral during trading, then borrow U/coins from Aave's pool to place orders. Last time, a meme airdropped me and I had 14u left to try leveraged trading. I used this 14u to place an order, eventually borrowing 28.6u and collateralizing 43.3U. According to leverage rules, I default to collateral 14u, then borrowed 0.01173 ETH from Aave. The DEX then sold 0.01173 ETH at the market price for 28.6 USD, meaning the total amount you received doubled by 14.45 USD + 28.57 USD = 48.3 USD. This funds are further locked up as collateral, and the transaction completes a closed loop~ This is the complete trading chain of collateral - lending - exchange. Actually, trading is pretty good, but it's only suitable for long-term holders! I compared contracts and leverage: one position charges funding rate + fees, the other charges interest + service fees. But I checked the same funds and time: for a perpetual contract with ETH held for 24 hours, opening and closing a position fee + funding rate is basically about 0.02U, while leverageIt's happening... the `chain liquidation` scenario is unfolding 😮💨
`77000` broke, 1H dropped 3%, over 190 million long positions evaporated instantly
*Why is the drop so severe this time?*
It's exactly what you said: the `macro triple kill resonance`:
**Trigger** **Impact**
**1. PPI exceeded expectations** Inflation hasn't eased. Tonight's CPI pressure is even greater
**2. Oil price broke 111** Cost side directly hits CPI hard
**3. US Treasury yields surged** `70% chance of rate hike in September`. Risk-free rates are too high, no one wants to play risky assets
Result: `#BTC spot ETF continuous outflows` + `leveraged stampede` = negative feedback
`Opportunity cost of holding BTC` maxed out. Even government bonds yield over 5%, who wants to endure volatility
**ZEC in recent days looks like someone accidentally pressed the x2 button on volatility. The coin literally moved from around $800 to over $1,200 in just a few days, then started sharply giving back part of the move. And this is where it gets interesting. Because if you just look at the chart, the conclusion is very simple: +50% → overheating → -10% → time to short. I wouldn't rush that. 🟣 FIRST — THE ETF IS NO LONGER A RUMOR This is an important clarification. The Grayscale Zcash ETF ZCSH launched on August 25 on NYSE Arca. As of September 8, the fund already had pThe topic of today's post is: Before interest rates soared, gold seemed to have turned and gone downhill, but the real test was yet to come! Over the past month, the issue of rate hikes has been flipped up three times in the market. When the July data came out, nonfarm payrolls only increased by 23,000, while the market was waiting for 83,000; CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, marking the second consecutive month of decline; PPI was simply zero. Putting all three data points together, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from 50% to just over 30%. That's where gold and silver began to recover. In early August, gold prices were still hovering around $4,000, a level that had been worn down from spring into summer. Three weeks later, it stood above 4,633, and for the whole of August, it rose nearly 10%, at one point reaching 4,700. Silver, platinum, and palladium followed suit. Then on August 28, Wash spoke at Jackson Hole. He said that the few softer inflation data released in summer do not indicate a real improvement in underlying inflation; the Fed still has work to do. The market changed its stance that day, pushing the probability of a rate hike from 30% back to over 50%. Gold prices also began to retreat from their highs, dropping to 4282 in early September. Last night, the PPI pushed this line forward again, raising the probability of a rate hike to about 70%, putting pressure on gold and silver again. Tonight it's CPI's turn, and next week it's the Fed. So the current problem is very straightforward. If CPI remains hot tonight, and Washi really raises rates next week, will the gold and silver rally climbing from around 4000 be slapped back with a slap? That time, inflation spiraled out of control, and the Fed#10-year US Treasury nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise
US Treasuries are almost at 5%, and Treasury Department repos can't save it: the market is starting to doubt that "high interest rates are only temporary"
The real issue isn't the 10-year Treasury nearing 5%, but that the Treasury Department offered $6 billion in repos but only took about $5.2 billion, while long-term bonds continued to fall. The 10-year surged to 4.95%, and the 30-year rose to 5.37%, indicating the market doesn't lack a "technical repo" but lacks buyers willing to hold US Treasuries long-term.
Here comes the core contradiction: PPI year-on-year is already at 5.4%, oil prices have surged to $109, and inflation expectations are rising; Trump also proposed giving $5,000 to every adult, with a potential cost exceeding $1 trillion. On one hand, interest rates need to rise; on the other, fiscal stimulus may continue—this is the combination that long-term bonds truly fear.
So the market is not trading a single repo failure now, but rather **"higher rates and longer duration" starting to be repriced**. US stocks have fallen consecutively, and $BTC has also fallen back below around $80,000, with high-valuation assets being drained first.
5% is not the end point but a watershed. If long-term funds still refuse to step in, what the market may sell next is not just bonds but all assets whose valuations rely on low interest rates. # Latest Updates
- Houthis control the Red Sea port of Mocha and land on the Hanish Islands, approaching full control of the Mandeb Strait; Brent crude oil rises 7.98% nearing $110.
- The ECB raises interest rates by 25 basis points as expected; Lagarde calls the preventive hike a "no brainer," raising the 2027 inflation forecast to 2.5%.
- US August PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, slightly above expectations; energy prices up 4.2% month-on-month; initial jobless claims at 206,000; Goldman Sachs raises August core PCE forecast to 0.24%.
- Treasury repurchases $5.187 billion in long-term bonds, below the $6 billion cap; 2-year US Treasury yields hit a new high since June 24 years ago; 30-year yields reach the highest since 2007.
- FCC's final equipment authorization rules do not list optical modules as a separate restricted category; purely mechanical or passive components are excluded; extreme restriction assumptions not implemented.
- BTC at $76,900, ETH at $2,446; BTC ETF net outflow of $120 million, ETH ETF net inflow of $35 million; Coinbase anchors September 15 as a key date for the CLARITY Act.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion unchanged: geopolitical oil price shocks are re-pricing medium-term inflation expectations, not emotional volatility.
- Houthis nearing control of the Mandeb Strait, Brent crude near $110 forces ECB preventive rate hike, pressuring the Fed. Treasury repurchase below cap damages Basent's credibility; 2-year yields hit a 24-year high since June, 30-year yields highest since 2007. Focus on Friday's CPI and US-Iran developments.
- Oracle beats expectations after hours (42.1% profit margin, $30 billion new AI contracts signed, RPO at $664 billion); FCC new rules ease optical module concerns; BTC holds at $76,900.What happens after the $ETH short squeeze is over? There are three possibilities.
First, the strongest bullish scenario: spot and active buying continue to take over. After the shorts are squeezed out, the price doesn't drop; instead: 2480 holds → 2490 → 2500
This indicates the rise is not just due to a "short squeeze," but there is genuinely new capital willing to keep buying at higher prices.
This is the strongest trend.
Second: after the short squeeze ends, the price actually falls back. Because the forced liquidation of shorts itself generates a one-time buying surge. Once that batch of shorts is cleared: the forced buying disappears. If no new spot capital continues to buy at this point, and the previous bulls start taking profits, then it’s entirely possible: 2480 short squeeze → surge to 2500 → then fall back to 2470 or even lower.
So sometimes you’ll see a very typical candlestick: a sudden big bullish candle followed quickly by a retracement. This is a "liquidation-driven rally," which doesn’t necessarily mean a trend up.
Third, new shorts enter again at higher levels. For example, the shorts at 2404 were wiped out, but the price surged to: 2500 / 2520 / 2560
Another group of traders thinks it’s expensive and will short again.
Old shorts are cleared, and new shorts establish positions at higher levels. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 BTC is currently around $76,600. If the core CPI can still be kept around 0.2%, the market can at least breathe a sigh of relief, and the probability of a rate hike may drop, allowing BTC to potentially recover back to around $78,000 or even $80,000.
If CPI exceeds expectations, it’s uncertain whether Bitcoin can hold $76,000. After last night’s PPI release, the market has clearly become more nervous.
The US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, in line with expectations, but the year-over-year increase reached 5.4%, slightly above market expectations. More troubling is that energy prices rose 4.2% in a single month, and oil prices are currently high again.
The market’s probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen from about 61% the previous day to around 71%.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%