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Beware of the "division valuation" trap! Calculating CORE against DOGE results in 48 yuan, which is completely untenable🔥
Many people use simple division to deduce CORE's target price: by comparing the total supply of DOGE and CORE, applying DOGE's market cap, they calculate CORE's theoretical price at 48.25 yuan, and even estimate up to 67.6 yuan based on circulating supply.
But token valuation is far from simple arithmetic. DOGE's market cap is the result of years of bull and bear markets, community consensus, and repeated validation by capital. Although CORE's total supply is capped, its unlocking period lasts 81 years, staking only delays selling pressure, tokens are not burned, and significant unlocking pressure exists long-term.
There is a clear gap at the ecosystem level: DOGE has a real active community; CORE's BTC-Fi narrative has lasted for years, but practical applications are very limited.
Only cherry-picking positive data while hiding unlocking pressure and ecosystem shortcomings is narrative packaging. Without continuous incremental capital and a real ecosystem, the paper valuation is ultimately just a castle in the air. 结论先说：周线塔形底走出来、前高 82800 上破之后，当下的回落我看成良性修复，不是反转。短期有调整需求，但不用慌，大方向我不改。 为什么这么看？周线上周收阳，是针对前高的有效上破，底部形态完成后的突破，代表底部多头的态度。现在的下跌更像是获利了结或前高扫空后的下修，没破坏结构。日线 MACD 顶背离被很多人拿来喊崩，我很少看这指标——背离是结果不是原因，不引导价格，顶多算短期提醒。两小时上方有个疑似双顶，但这种小时级小背离很难蔓延成持续下跌，更像大周期的一段良性调整。 点位推演： 第一支撑 81000–79000（0.5–0.618 回撤，前箱体顶），核心承接； 前低 82800 是短线分水岭，破了离场，不破可以偏左侧接多，或等站回 83000–84000 再动手； 第二支撑 80000 下方 79000–78000，理想接多位。 本段回调极限约 10%（到 78000 附近），跌破 75000（箱体底）才算结构坏。 为什么不用恐慌？左侧布局本来就有试错成本，只要在自己能承担的范围内，行情越往下走，后面给到的多头空间反而越大。趋势交易七八次里只要做对一次，就够把之前的亏损磨平，还带$BTC slightly rose 0.2% at 84591, $ETH slightly fell 0.1% at 2686, a typical sideways movement before a big battle, with shrinking volume and both bulls and bears watching.
A smooth takeoff would mean BTC at 88000, ETH at 3000.
Tonight's US stock market opening is a critical point; once liquidity returns, it will most likely set the direction.
Asian session first consolidates, European session probes, US session decides life or death.
I absolutely won't make any rash moves now.Today, the talks between the US and Iran broke down again, causing both Bitcoin and Ethereum to experience varying degrees of pullback. The macro valuation is deteriorating, but internal demand within the crypto space remains strong, temporarily preventing a deep drop.
This week, BTC's dominance slightly decreased, indicating that new market value is flowing into mainstream altcoins like ETH. So even if Bitcoin continues to pull back, altcoins are less likely to crash.
Looking at Bitcoin itself, the 85k level has been tested three times without a breakthrough, and the daily divergence has persisted for a long time. Therefore, a decent rebound is unlikely in the short term; at least this divergence needs to be resolved.
Currently, there is no need to chase shorts. Each time the price fluctuates within the same range, it is accumulating strength for the next move. Consider continuing to short only if it pulls back below 83k.午盘，BTC 83,430。今天上午那波跌得结实：从 85,200 一路滑到 83,219，近 2000 点。现在卡在半山腰，反弹没啥力气。 ETH 2,655（-1.65%）、SOL 119.9（-0.75%），三兄弟全趴着，BTC 这波是带头的。 合约那边有意思：BTC 费率 +0.0023%，昨天还是负的，今天翻回来了，但小得可怜。翻译一下：多头刚被浇过一盆水，现在连小火苗都算不上。OI 24.19 亿刀，没放大，没爆仓潮，市场在等。 最魔幻的是：恐惧贪婪指数还在 70（贪婪）。价格趴着，情绪嗨着，这俩总有一个在说谎。 往前看：83,219 这个低点是今天的分水岭。守得住，震荡反弹看 84,000；守不住，83,000 下方见。证伪条件也写清楚：OI 突然放量或费率飙升，说明新资金进场，上面这段就作废。 留言区聊聊：贪婪 70 和这盘面，哪个是假的？ #BTC #恐惧和贪婪指数If $BTC can’t hold this range, the next area I’m watching is around $80K. Honestly, I’m not in a rush to buy at current levels. The recent rally hasn’t fully been retraced yet, and I’d rather wait for a deeper pullback than chase another pump. The macro backdrop is also getting harder to ignore. 🛢️ Middle East tensions have kept oil elevated, while U.S. Treasury yields remain under pressure. When energy costs rise and bond yields stay high, liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto can feel the pr📊 September 28 $ZEC Market Snapshot
① Price Snapshot
OKEx ZEC/USDT $1,569, 24h -3.6%; Intraday range 1,577–1,670
30-day still +101%, September cumulative increase 83%, market cap $26.9 billion (#9)
② OKEx Data Overview
24h trading volume $1.21 billion, accounting for 19.4% of the total market (second only to Binance's 31.3%)
RSI 64.4 neutral, MACD histogram +3.15 bullish; but 1650 rejected twice, after Grayscale ZCSH removal and replacement, external new funds only 200 million, ETF inflows zero for three days, momentum cooling down
③ Key Levels
Support: 1530 (short-term EMA band) / 1450
Resistance: 1650 / 1688
④ Trading Suggestions
NU7 upgrade is still ongoing, but short-term momentum has dulled, avoid chasing highs. Lightly try longs if it pulls back and stabilizes at 1530, reduce positions if it breaks below 1450; giant whale short positions have unrealized losses in the tens of millions but no liquidation line yet, naked short risk is greater.
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 LAB four days, now into the second season. On 9/25 I wrote: A thinning market, a single spike pierced 28%. Today I add the follow-up—only four days after the crowd dispersed, the stands are full again, even more crowded than last time. First, a detail no one was watching at the time. On the day of the pulse, the fee rate surged to 0.1%, annualized over 100%. Those who chased in at 0.068 paid an exorbitant seat fee every 8 hours, and after only a few rounds, they were burned out and forced to exit. The price rolled back to 0.05868, not because someone smashed it, but because the seat fee was too expensive and people left on their own. Then these three days. The price slid down to 0.05459, down 7%, but the position holdings on the books remained unchanged, still just over 3.87 million. Doing the math on this: price down 7%, total value unchanged, the number of contracts actually increased by about 7.5%. Again, money is being added while price falls—just like the script from 9/21, averaging down. The exchange also took action: the fee settlement cycle was cut from 8 hours to 4 hours. Not to make things easier, but to double the charging frequency—because the squeeze was too intense, they had to collect fees more frequently. Now the fee rate is 0.01277%, annualized about 28%, right next to the 30% stop-loss line; the long-short ratio is around 8, with 80% of people crowded on the long side. During the few minutes the market was smashed today, the contract price broke below the index price, and the basis turned negative—someone has already jumped the gun. On 9/25 I said I was just watching the middle part of this. The stage has been set up again these days: the 0.0536 spike is only 1.85% away from the current price. Last time the order book was thin, sweeping it out caused a 28% spring-back; this time the order book is crowded again$HYPE $BTC $ETH
The support around 89 for HYPE is really a bit ridiculous.
The bears aren't just breaking defenses anymore,
they're starting to get mentally exhausted 😂
They tried to push down around 88, 89 several times, but each time someone caught the dip.
Bears:
"This time it’s finally going to break!"
HYPE:
"No break."
Bears:
"Then I'll wait for one more candle."
HYPE:
"Still no break."
Dog whales, how many longs have you buried below 89??? 🐶
This kind of market is the most torturous.
It doesn’t rise, giving bears hope;
It doesn’t fall, yet stubbornly refuses to give bears any profit.
Grinding around 89 every day,
until the bears start questioning life:
"Am I shorting to make money, or just to chat with you?"
Now 89 has clearly become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
Only if it effectively breaks down will the bears finally breathe a sigh of relief.
But as long as it holds here—
The bears shorting HYPE will probably lose sleep again tonight. 😭
Dog whales, can you be a bit more decisive?
If it’s going to drop, just drop; don’t torture us stuck around 89 every day! 🐶#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 How much longer can the 83000-85000 range still be played? Why did Bitcoin face a Waterloo-style opening at 8 AM on Monday?
First, let's talk about yesterday's range-driven price increase.
It was clearly a price fluctuation driven by contract positions. Bulls accumulated chips to push the price up yesterday, but without ETF capital inflows, the price increase was not ideal. Profit-taking occurred at the 85000 high point in the range, causing the price to fall back early morning. The selling pressure increased, which is a normal internal market game without external factors.
The 8 AM opening drop today is due to multiple factors:
1. The biggest factor: this week is the non-farm payroll week. Last month, the new jobs added were 162,000; this month, the expectation is 84,000, indicating a cooling employment market, adding more uncertainty to the market. So some Bitcoin spot ETF sell-offs are normal, and the drop within a certain range is bearable.
2. The second reason: although news of ground warfare between the US and Iran continues, there is more tabletop negotiation. Iran wants greater gains and is using the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. Trump is not buying it, and the situation remains deadlocked. Just yesterday, Iran's peace proposal was rejected.
3. The third observation: Bitcoin's own rise has hit a bottleneck, with no more driving forces to support Bitcoin holding above 85000. Most take profits around 87000, and true long-term holders looking up to a bull market remain a minority.
4. Because of these factors, the sell orders at 85000 consistently exceed buy orders, but there is absolute buying support between 82000-83000, causing the price to fluctuate within the range without breaking out.
If uncertainties decrease, this 83000-85000 range can still be played until the National Day holiday. However, the non-farm payroll report is on October 2nd. During or after the holiday, there will definitely be major movements. This movement might be a downward test of the support bottom, perhaps at 82000 or 81000, which will then be quickly corrected by buying pressure back above 83000.
Testing the bottom is also laying a solid foundation for the rise. The more solid the foundation, the more complete the upward curve. So the 83000-85000 range can still be played freely for two more days 账户当前同时持有两笔永续合约订单，一多一空，盈亏两极分化。 $BTC USDT永续多单，3倍逐仓杠杆。持仓0.1047枚BTC，开仓均价65167.854，当前标记价格83493.62，浮盈1918.7USDT，收益率84.36%。维持保证金率高达10986.08%，预估强平价42407.445，仓位安全垫很厚，这波多头趋势吃到了丰厚利润。 另一笔是$ETH USDT永续空单，激进使用100倍逐仓杠杆，持仓1.131枚ETH，开仓均价1945.08，当前标记价格2659.55，行情持续反向运行，浮亏808.05USDT，亏损比例达到3673.17%。虽然维持保证金率尚可，强平价2862.88还有一段距离，但百倍杠杆的风险极高，价格稍有继续拉升，就会快速逼近风险线。 一仓顺势吃肉，一仓逆势深套，鲜明对比也提醒着杠杆取舍。低杠杆顺势持仓容错空间大，高杠杆一旦方向做错，亏损会被急剧放大，交易里仓位与杠杆的把控，永远是重中之重。 $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Today's Key Risk Alerts
1. Evening U.S. stock market opening sentiment and U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations may dominate the intraday short-term oscillation rhythm.
2. Before the heavy GDP and personal income and expenditure data release on September 30, the market is generally cautious, making volatility prone to concentrated release.
3. Asian stock market trends have data lag; do not misjudge real-time risk appetite based on overnight lagging indices.
Weekly Market Outlook
The current market's biggest highlight is the continuous increase in trading volume and the bottom rise in stablecoin liquidity, but the biggest shortcoming is insufficient active buying and persistently weak prices.
Core conditions for subsequent market breakthroughs: sustained expansion of trading volume, active buying ratio returning above 1, and spot premium turning from negative to positive; only the resonance of these three can confirm an effective rebound.
Price-only rebounds without matching volume are defined as weak range-bound rebounds and should not be used for trend predictions.
In summary
Market liquidity and trading volume continue to improve, but prices remain weak and active absorption is insufficient. Overall, the market is in a consolidation and shakeout phase. Do not guess the direction; wait for confirmation, stabilize, and then follow the trend. It's obvious that no agreement can be reached, so why keep negotiating?
On one side, they won't lift the blockade and sanctions; on the other, they won't ease the Strait conditions.
This isn't just a matter of wording—it's that the objective functions are opposite.
Under this structure, the probability of a comprehensive US-Iran agreement is inherently low.
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
After Trump rejected the 7-day plan, he made it very clear:
"They want a deal, but not the kind I want."
So, the so-called continued talks this week are more about toggling market sentiment than a reconciliation countdown.
Politicians leak information, media relay it, and funds exploit the topic—this is a common market tactic, easily moving oil, gold, and BTC.
Next,
Brent $BZ is expected to continue oscillating between 96–102.
News can trigger intraday price swings, but until the Strait's daily transit volume keeps rising and no new military escalations occur, the overall trend remains range-bound.
$BTC is currently grinding around 83,000–85,000 USD, also more like a range in the short term rather than a trend start.
Reduce leverage before and after the Nonfarm and PCE releases.
Position-wise: trade oil in short waves, keep light BTC positions in range; do not use the prospect of imminent reconciliation to increase leverage on either.
The news is suitable for trading volatility, not as a reversal signal.
Before the agreement is finalized, rises are risk premium retracements, and falls are premiums being re-applied.Breaking News: $BTC BTC falls below 84,000, SOL/OKB collectively pull back! OKB long positions turn to nearly 30% loss, urgent risk control needed
📝 Main Text
Good afternoon, brothers. The weekend rally did not continue, and the market experienced a collective pullback this morning.
BTC dropped from a high of 85,137, currently below the 84,000 mark, now around 83,490, down 1.10% in 24 hours. SOL plunged sharply from above 124.95 to 119.14, now about 120.04, down 1.35%. OKB’s decline is the most significant, falling from 121.69 to around 118.40, down 2.36%. Profit-taking and cooling market sentiment are the core reasons for this pullback.
📊 Market Overview: Short-term weakness across the board
BTC: On the 15-minute chart, MA5 (83,448), MA10 (83,403), and MA20 (83,665) are all diverging downward; price has broken below all short-term moving averages. SUPERTREND resistance formed at 84,036. The short-term has broken the key psychological support at 84,000; if it cannot reclaim 84,000 intraday, it will likely continue downward to test 83,000 or even 82,500.
SOL: Fell from 123.39 to 119.14, currently struggling around 120. The 15-minute moving averages show a bearish alignment; SUPERTREND resistance is at 121.69. Key support below is at 119; breaking that targets 117-118.
OKB: The weakest performer, with a fully bearish 15-minute moving average setup; SUPERTREND has moved down to 119.49. Due to previous large gains, profit-taking is most concentrated here, currently approaching the 24-hour low of 117.67.
🩸 Position Risk Warning
Based on the position screenshot you sent, your OKB long position (isolated 20x) is in a very dangerous situation:
· Entry price: 120.2
· Mark price: 118.41
· Unrealized loss: -9.82U (-29.78%)
· Margin: 32.48U
· Liquidation price: 116.68
This position has turned from a 16% unrealized profit a few days ago to nearly 30% unrealized loss now. There is less than 1.5% room left before liquidation at 116.68! With 20x leverage, if OKB falls another 1.5%, this 32.48U margin will be completely wiped out.
Action recommendations (safety first):
1. Act immediately: Do not expect OKB to V-reverse instantly. Holding through a downtrend with high leverage is a big no.
2. Manually stop loss or reduce position: To avoid liquidation, immediately close part of the position or set a stop loss at 117.5 (just above the liquidation price 116.68). If it breaks below, accept the loss and exit.
3. Never add margin: Do not add funds to a long position in a downtrend that is about to be liquidated; it’s a bottomless pit.
4. Emotional adjustment: If this position is stopped out, please take a break. Do not immediately short to retaliate against the market. Today’s one-sided drop can easily hurt you both ways.
📌 Summary
Weekend bullish sentiment was suppressed Monday morning, with the three major coins pulling back collectively. The market is weak short-term, and OKB longs face extreme liquidation risk. Risk management is always the first lesson in trading; preserving remaining capital and accepting this loss is the most rational choice now.
Brothers, did you take profits or get stuck in this pullback? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 ZEC has touched a new ten-year high, while BTC is still pretending to be dead at $84,500.
Money has flowed into institutional accounts, but the spot market hasn't really followed.
BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling nearly $3 billion, with about $134 million added on Friday. But BTC stalled after dropping from $87,000 back to around $84,500.
It's not that no one is buying; rather, profit-taking near $87,000, trapped positions, and US Treasury yields are all weighing it down. Some buyers are stepping in below, some sellers above, and part of the funds are starting to shift to altcoins.
Check OKX trending downwards: ZEC, SUI, NEAR, and GRASS are all pushing upwards. ZEC hit a high of $1,697 this morning, marking a near ten-year high, then pulled back to around $1,600. With BTC giving no direction, funds have to find their own opportunities.
My view:
BTC: Keep watching $83,000–$85,000. If it holds above $85,000, then look towards $87,000; if it breaks below $83,000 and can't recover, watch out for a retest of $82,000.
ETH: Hold above $2,680–$2,700, target $2,760 and $2,820; if it breaks below $2,630, the bullish plan is canceled.
ZEC: Don't chase at high levels. $1,600 is a divergence zone; if volume breaks below $1,500, beware of a sharp pullback.
OKB: Don't chase for now; wait for BTC to stabilize and volume to return before participating.
Right now, ZEC is responsible for new highs, BTC is responsible for playing dead.
I'm just here watching other coins hit new highs, silently shedding tears.PCE and payrolls will test whether markets can keep treating resilience as benign. Elevated inflation alongside high Treasury yields leaves little room for a soft reading in either release: stronger data may sharpen policy sensitivity, while softer data must be convincingly broad to ease it.
For BTC, the cross-asset reaction may matter more than the headline alone.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek The first thing I do when I wake up in the morning is check the market. All three coins are doing okay, but I’m not sure if they can keep rising. Honestly, I’m a bit conflicted.
BTC has reclaimed above 84,000, showing short-term strength without a doubt. Now it’s all about the resistance at 86,600; if it breaks through, the path ahead is wide open. As long as 81,000 holds, the upward trend isn’t broken, so I’m not worried for now.
ETH is consolidating between 2,680 and 2,700, with today’s high near 2,720. It still needs to confirm staying above 2,700; once confirmed, the next target is 2,800. The first support below is at 2,660.
OKB is the brightest performer, consistently holding above $120, with resistance at $123. If $120 holds, it can keep bouncing up; if it breaks, look for support at $114.
In summary: don’t get overly excited by a single candlestick. The key is to watch if the price holds steady after breaking resistance—only then is it real.#ETH spot ETF net inflow for three consecutive weeks #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #BTC spot ETF attracts over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days
Bitcoin spot ETF withdrew nearly $450 million in three days, data as cold as deep winter, yet the price climbed steadily from $60,000 to above $65,000. Money is moving, price is climbing — this is not divergence, someone is quietly accumulating amid pessimism.
65,000: Not a ceiling, but the last psychological barrier for the bears
This week BTC touched 66,000 but couldn't hold; it retraced to 65,000 and was immediately bought up. Now the tug-of-war around 65,000 is repeated, the longer the shake, the more it feels like the calm before a breakout. Once volume breaks through 66,000, no need to wait for 68,000, the market will surge on its own to 70,000.
OP: That long lower shadow is the bears' last stubborn stand
Looking back at the $1.1 low, it looks like a spring bent down and then bounced back. That long lower shadow below is not a "sell pressure test," it's the bears having fired all their bullets while the bulls remain in the arena. Now at $1.25, just a breath away from the $1.4 whole number resistance. A volume breakout above $1.3 opens up a wide open field ahead.
The market is always open, but your principal is not an unlimited refill. $BTC $ZEC $SOL Whale, just keep washing it out
I’m not running away
It’s not that easy to wash me out
30 ETH long position with an average cost of 2724
Currently floating loss of 1996U
This small pullback can’t wash me out
——
$ETH trading volume about $10.88 billion
Market cap about $324.5 billion
Volume increased 76.7% compared to the previous day
Support appeared near 2641
As long as 2640 is not effectively broken down
I still consider this a shakeout
If it stands back above 2685, then watch 2708
Only breaking through 2724 will open a new round of space
——
$BEAT trading volume about $5.18 million
Volume actually increased by 60.7%
24-hour range between 0.0928 and 0.1009
Volume up but price down indicates big disagreement between bulls and bears
If 0.0928 holds, I remain bullish
Only reclaiming 0.1009 counts as a real takeoff
——
$OKB 24-hour trading volume about $22.35 million
Trading activity increased 31.8% compared to the previous day
Current circulating supply only 21 million tokens
On the news front, OKX just completed X Layer and OKX AI developer events
Focus covers RWA and intelligent agents among other hot sectors
Shortlisted projects will go to Singapore for roadshows before October 6
These kinds of positives lean more toward long-term ecosystem building
As long as X Layer continues to have application deployments
The long-term logic for OKB is not over
I continue holding ETH
But the strong liquidation price at 2419 can’t be used as a stop loss
Being bullish is fine
Risk control must be maintained
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Continue to track the fundamental changes of $AAVE.
AAVE is gradually moving into a new phase: crypto assets are just the beginning, tokenized securities might be the next stop, and the further destination is the integration of real-world assets and productivity onto the blockchain.
Currently, Aave V4 on Base's Equities Hub has started supporting tokenized US stocks issued by Coinbase, including NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META.
Simply put, users can use tokenized stocks as collateral to borrow USDC without having to sell the stocks.
Note here: this is investors using stocks as collateral for loans, not Aave providing corporate loans to Nvidia or Tesla; these are completely different financial models.
Looking at Aave's development path in the long run, it may become clearer:
Crypto → Tokenized Securities → RWA → Real Economy
If this path ultimately succeeds, what Aave aims to do might not just be a DeFi lending protocol, but a set of financial infrastructure connecting on-chain capital with real-world assets.
The potential of AAVE may just be beginning to unfold.# Latest Updates
- Federal Reserve voting members warn of high inflation; Williams and Paulson point to AI capital expenditure driving demand, possibly leading to more rate hikes this year; Harker emphasizes the need to maintain a restrictive stance.
- Global bond market sell-off intensifies, 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.1563%, 30-year at a record high of 5.486%; Japanese and German bond yields hit multi-decade highs, averaging nearly 4%.
- Trump rejects Iran's 7-day ceasefire proposal, citing severe economic pressure on Iran; Brent crude falls 2.59% to $97.62, with oil prices unlikely to shift significantly before November.
- Crypto affected by new US Treasury highs and Bitget hacker disruption, BTC at 84,000, ETH at 2,671; ETF single-day net inflow of 134 million, totaling 2.39 billion this week.
- Copilot integrates new code and AI agents into Office, stock price up 3.7%; Ministry of Industry and Information Technology may approve Alibaba and ByteDance's purchase of Nvidia RTX Pro 5500.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion unchanged: macro interest rate environment and AI industry narrative both entering a divergence phase.
- Federal Reserve voting members identify inflation as the primary challenge; AI capital expenditure driving demand is an inflation factor. Durable goods orders exceed expectations at 1.6%, initial jobless claims at 197,000, strong economy becomes a reason for rate hikes. Focus on this week's core PCE and September nonfarm payrolls.
- Copilot integrates Office with pay-as-you-go billing; Meta fluctuates. Watch for OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. No vision, can't hold on, the profit from this short position is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. Just after lunch while watching the market, $AKE's rebound was weak, selling pressure was heavy, so I casually reminded: don't go long, there's still room for the short position.😋
From 0.05149 to 0.02898, +874.34% really feels great, can treat myself to a good meal. This kind of tailwind ride doesn't come every day; what you can take away is truly yours.
The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding.
First, close 80% of the position, pocket the main part, and keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. Let the profits run if it continues to drop, but don't give back profits if it rebounds.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
There will be more opportunities later; the market is not short of opportunities, but patience is lacking. Don't chase shorts now, wait for the next signal before moving.
$BNB $DOGE BREAKING: $BTC under $83,500.
Weekly close looked bullish. Monday open didn’t care.
Spot ~$83.4K. Lost the $84K shelf.
Support now: $83.2K then $80K.
Resistance: $84K reclaim → $85.2K → $87.4K.
Weekly close ≠ Monday bid.
The squeeze high is still $87.4K. That’s not confirmed until price is back above $85.2K.
Don’t fade a wick. Don’t buy the first dip either.
$83.2K hold = pullback. $80K close = the squeeze is done.If the U.S. personally promotes overseas stablecoin projects, stablecoins will no longer be just a business for crypto companies.
According to reports, the Trump administration is considering establishing joint projects with private enterprises to promote the U.S. dollar stablecoin overseas. The idea is straightforward: for every additional U.S. dollar stablecoin held by users, the issuer needs to increase its reserves of U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. does not have to wait for foreign central banks to actively increase holdings; ordinary people's wallets, merchant payments, and cross-border trade can all become entry points for dollar demand.
For users in high-inflation countries, this is certainly attractive—they can store dollars on their phones, avoiding bank queues and currency exchange restrictions. But for local governments, tax collection, capital controls, and monetary policy may be quietly bypassed. The IMF's concern about capital outflows is not abstract; once the local currency experiences turbulence, funds can escape into stablecoins within minutes. This plan will make the U.S. dollar more usable but will also make it harder for some countries' local currencies to survive.
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 Bitcoin dropped again, analysts explained a lot, but I think there are actually just two points:
Short-term sentiment:
US debt, geopolitics, and leverage resonate in a chain.
A few bearish candles are enough to turn greed into fear.
Long-term liquidity:
The Fed's faucet, real interest rates, the tide of the dollar, increments of ETFs and stablecoins.
When the water doesn't come, rebounds are mostly corrections;
When the water comes, pessimism can also reverse.
So:
Don't catch flying knives with faith in the short term,
Don't get washed off the train by noise in the long term.
Price is the shadow of liquidity, sentiment is just its noise.
$BTC I didn't expect this post to cause such a heated argument 😅, but my view remains the same: as long as crypto exists, the debate between centralization and decentralization will always continue, and it's hard to say who's right or wrong. What everyone should focus on now is that Bitget resumed BTC withdrawals first at 4 PM today. This wave of withdrawals is undoubtedly a stress test. Being able to withdraw normally is what your CEX should do; failing to withdraw will only bring harsher criticism. This is why I emphasize that replenishing funds is easy, but once trust collapses, it's very hard to reverse.
Also, I don't think opening withdrawals will cause a large-scale dump. The market has mostly exhausted its emotions over the weekend. But if after opening withdrawals there are stuck orders, limits, or reviews, then it's another story.
So for those involved in this wave of withdrawals, I suggest not paying attention to $BTC's price fluctuations. After all, you can't see this split in the order book. SAFU is the exchange's money; the funds you can withdraw are your own. Focus more on the liquidity you can actually get your hands on.$BTC Bitcoin: Has it eliminated trust, or has it redistributed trust to verifiable rules?
Many people call Bitcoin a "trustless" system.
This phrase is easy to misunderstand.
Bitcoin has not made trust disappear. What it truly does is change where trust is placed.
In the traditional financial system, we are used to placing trust in banks, clearing institutions, payment companies, and legal systems. How much money is in an account, whether a transaction is completed, and who ultimately owns the assets usually require an institution to record, confirm, and make final judgments for us.
This institutional trust supports large-scale collaboration in modern society and allows strangers to complete complex transactions.
Bitcoin proposes another way.
It does not require all participants to trust a single central institution; instead, it delegates part of the confirmation work originally handled by institutions to public rules, cryptographic proofs, and a ledger that anyone can verify.
Thus, the question changes.
In the past, we asked:
"Who should I trust?"
Now we can further ask:
"Can I verify it myself?"
This does not mean that trust does not exist in the Bitcoin world. People still need to trust the software, devices, and trading tools they use, and still face custody, trading platforms, and real-world legal environments.
Therefore, "trustless" never means a world completely without trust. $XRP $OKB $BTC
Monday fade. BTC leads.
$BTC — around $83.4K.
Lost $84K. $83.2K is first support. $80K is the fail.
Reclaim $85.2K or this is just a grind down.
$XRP — around $1.52.
$1.66 still the cap. Support $1.46.
If BTC loses $83.2K, $1.46 goes first.
$OKB — around $121.
$118 support. $125 only if BTC holds.
Exchange token. Follows the tape.
Same family. Same risk.
Don’t buy the first red Monday candle. Let $84K reclaim.BTC is the main gate.
SUI and ZEC are lining up for ticket inspection.
Once the gate opens, rotation gets lively;
Once the gate closes, high leverage dies first.😇
BTC 84945, up 1.07%.
Testing 85000,
but daily close, pullback, and volume don’t cooperate,
it's a fake move.
ETF inflows continue, 135 million on Friday,
demand isn’t dead,
but inflows are decreasing,
no strength for an upward push.
SUI 1.25, up 7.26%.
Up from 0.74 in ten days,
stronger than BTC.
GraphQL, DeepBook, Basecamp,
stories sound good.
But monthly releases are like scheduled takeout,
looking at spot, on-chain, ETF,
can it outperform new supply?
If not,
sharp rises come with sharp falls.
ZEC 1665, up 9.24%.
Approaching the 1697 high.
ZCSH stock split on September 30,
stock splits aren’t discounts,
they’re cake slicing,
total value unchanged.
True demand looks at net subscriptions.
NU7 still needs code, testnet, mainnet confirmation,
calendar longer than a romance.
If BTC holds 85000,
rotation continues.
If it falls back,
SUI with positive funding rate longs,
ZEC with high positions,
will deleverage first,
will get hit first.
Summary:
Watch BTC’s mood,
don’t chase highs,
risk control first.
$BTC $SUI I $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Divergence between capital outflows and price strength: a silent chip exchange
A signal worth savoring
Ethereum spot ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.2 billion. The data on the table looks like a bear market script no matter how you see it. But what about the price? It has risen steadily from $2400 to above $2650, showing no sign of turning back.
Money is moving, prices are rising. This is not a market failure, but someone using pessimistic data to accumulate chips.
ETH: Support at 2650 is more informative than the breakthrough at 2700
This week ETH attempted to reach 2700 but failed; normally, there should be a pullback. However, when it retraced to 2650, buyers immediately caught it, and the price didn’t even dip further. This kind of "should fall but doesn’t" movement often reveals more than a big bullish candle.
Currently, the price is consolidating narrowly around 2650. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the more thorough the chip turnover. Once 2700 is effectively broken, 2800 will not pose a substantial barrier, and 2900 will be the next psychological level.
BTC: Short-term noise cannot cover the macro background
For Bitcoin, spot ETFs have seen $450 million outflows over three days, sharply contrasting with nearly $3 billion net inflows over seven consecutive days before. Short-term funds are flowing in and out, but the real variable determining direction is not in the ETF daily data.
The market won’t close, but principal will. In a volatile market, restraint is harder and more valuable than action. $BTC $ETH $SOL September 28
Market Review:
Ethereum has been consolidating at a high level for four consecutive days, with volume increasing but price shrinking, reflecting that bulls have been trying hard but unfortunately without results.
Technical Indicators:
On the weekly chart, there is an upper shadow, indicating weakening bulls. It is highly probable that after another attempt to break the previous high this week, the price will fall back near 2550.
On the daily chart, the price has failed to break through 2750 for several consecutive days, so it must seek support downward, with the primary target at 2560.
On the 4-hour chart, a valid divergence has basically formed. If the 4-hour divergence takes effect, a 4-hour level decline will occur. Normally, this decline would not be small, but if the depth is very shallow, beware of a bull trap or strong support below that prevents the price from falling deeply enough.
Trading Strategy:
1. Before a sharp drop occurs, focus on shorting above 2690, and consider monitoring around 2640 for scalping.
2. For coins like ZEC that have had huge gains recently, if Ethereum and Bitcoin undergo a deep correction, be cautious of these tokens falling deeply in line with the trend. Partners holding such tokens should promptly set trailing stops and exit immediately once a clear bearish structure appears; do not stubbornly wait to hit stop loss.Master, I've been holding this short position for several days now. Can I really achieve success like this? Would it be good to have a flood of selling pressure tonight? The $ETH short at 2640 is still open, now topping around 2715, and it's indeed starting to feel uncomfortable again. The 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are turning upward again, indicating short-term strength, but the 2715–2720 range hasn't truly opened up space yet. If it holds here, I'll continue to wait for 2680. If 2680 breaks, Reviewing my trade: Long $BTC at 85000, dropped to 83450, held for three days, lost more than half of 200,000 U. Why the loss? Because I didn't trust the trend; I thought after such a big drop it should rebound. What happened? Resistance at 84000, support at 83173, bearish bias, price stayed below the moving average, no sign of a rebound at all. Lesson: If the trend is wrong, stop loss immediately, don't hold on. Current plan: short near 84000, small position of 5000 U, stop loss at 84500, target 83000. Always use stop loss, don't hold losing trades, don't fall into the same trap twice. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver: Micron earnings approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus #USAndIranContinueNegotiationsOnHormuzOpeningConditions
ETH short from 2695 to 2687, 538U.
BTC short from 84741 to 84625, 232U.
Total of two trades 770U, win rate 100%.
Then ZEC appeared.
Short at 1590, current price 1604, 50x leverage, loss 2139U.
One trade wiped out the profits of the two trades and even lost 1369U.
The problem is not the direction. ETH and BTC did fall. The problem is ZEC — the privacy coin sector fluctuated, shorted at 50x leverage, a 1% move means 50% margin lost. From 1590 to 1604, 14 points, just enough to blow half the position.
More worth mentioning is the rhythm: just closed the long positions, then reversed to short, three positions opened simultaneously, ETH and BTC both at 100x leverage. This is not strategy, this is feeling. When feeling good, it's called market sense; when feeling bad, it's called liquidation countdown.
The 770U profit is real, the 2139U loss is also real. The overall account is negative, no need to calculate.
Onlookers ask: Is he capable?
The answer is: direction is right, position sizing is not. Between getting the market right and making money, there is a river of leverage.
Don't follow. Following means paying for his ZEC losses.
Stay alive, then there is the next trade. $BTC $ETH $ZEC while expectations for its industry competitor $PUMP have been raised, leading some investors to switch their positions and holdings. This round of losses actually stems from my own insufficient understanding of position sizing and overconfidence. Ideally, I should have set a stop loss at 0.6, and if I still believed in it at a lower price, I could have bought back. But because I entered with a very large position, it has resulted in the current situation. Entering with an excessively large pos$IRYS is slightly bullish in the short term, wait for a pullback confirmation before moving again
A 20% increase in a single day has created a tug-of-war between fear of heights and fear of missing out. Fortunately, the funding rate has turned negative, indicating it hasn't reached a frenzy stage yet, which leaves room for subsequent movement. Don't rush to guess the top, nor blindly chase the rise. Focus on stable signals at key support zones, or wait for a momentum opportunity after breaking the previous high; this is the prudent approach.
Trading plan: Slightly bullish short term, but only trade on pullback confirmation or breakout confirmation
Trading advice: Consider after a stable pullback at 0.01691–0.01837; if it strengthens directly, follow after breaking above 0.02104. Set stop loss at 0.01666, take profit first at 0.02268, then at 0.02415.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Today, when I was adjusting my positions, I suddenly felt a bit emotional; it seems like the market quietly switched channels 🌙 Have you noticed that BTC is no longer carrying the whole market alone? Let me first talk about a few signals I've been watching. BNB reached around 782.6 today, up 1.35%, making it one of the more active mainstream tokens. It has always had a very distinctive character: tied to its ecosystem. As long as there are users running and projects moving on the BSC chain, it won’t look too bad. I think this current level isn’t expensive, so holders tend to have a steadier mindset. DOGE is also showing some movement, at 0.0977, up 1.21%. Honestly, I’ve always found it quite amazing — it has no real practical use, but people keep buying it, and whenever sentiment warms up, it jumps along. It’s now close to the psychological 0.1 mark; if greed continues to hold, it might try to test that level, but don’t have too high expectations — its volatility is inherently irrational. AVAX is relatively quiet, at 10.94, up 0.55%. It’s been lukewarm lately; the on-chain ecosystem isn’t fast nor slow, and the price is grinding around here. But 10 is considered a relatively low range for AVAX, so patient people can keep an eye on it. What really caught my attention isn’t how much these three coins individually rose, but that they all moved up together today. The era of BTC solo dancing might be ending; the market is trying to spread the heat. The Fear and Greed Index is at 70, sentiment is leaning positive, and funds are slowly moving toward altcoins. But here’s an easily overlooked point: once cross-market linkage kicks in, the rhythm will$ZEC: Only suitable for short-term trading, absolutely do not hold long-term!
Brothers, $ZEC is only suitable for short-term trading—short at highs, long at lows, never hold it long-term!
Look at the current market: ZEC price is 1,581.88, down quite a bit in 24 hours. I opened a short at 1,643.78, mark price 1,581.88, floating profit directly hit 11.29%! Isolated 3x leverage, margin only 5.47U, liquidation price at 2,168.92, my position is so small the main players don’t even notice me. I also shorted SOL, current price 120.89, hovering near cost, ignoring it for now.
Why say ZEC is only for short-term? This coin rose from 800 to over 1,600 purely driven by short squeeze liquidations, contract trading volume is more than ten times spot, leverage pumped the price up. It rises sharply and falls hard. Anyone stubbornly holding longs at highs or shorts at lows will eventually get played to death by its whipsaws.
With ten years of experience fixing cars, I know this kind of vehicle is like a modified race car: fast but one slight shake of the steering wheel and it crashes. You can only sprint, not take it on a long trip.
At this position, shorting at highs has already made profits; around 1,550 I’ll consider taking profits. After it falls thoroughly, I’ll consider going long at lows. Never greedy, never stubborn.
Personal trading record, not investment advice. Contract trading is extremely risky; position size and stop loss must be well controlled.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $PUMP
[In-depth Analysis] PUMP surged nearly 20% in a single day, jumping from 0.0043 to above 0.0052, reigniting sentiment in the meme sector.
Conclusion first: This breakout is not just an emotional spike; open interest (OI) surged 22.5% in 24 hours, indicating real money is leveraging up.
In terms of price structure, 0.0050 is a dense trading zone starting from the bottom and serves as the short-term bull-bear dividing line. Holding above it means the next significant selling pressure appears only at 0.0056; if it breaks below, it signals leveraged funds are retreating.
Funding rates remain positive, with longs willing to pay to hold positions, but many are chasing the highs. The retail long-short account ratio is only 1.25, indicating this rally is not driven by crowded retail positions, so the sell-off on pullbacks is not too sharp.
My approach: If the pullback near 0.0050 holds, consider light positions with a stop loss at the lower edge of 0.0046; take profit targets are first 0.0056, then 0.0063. If volume breaks above 0.0056, wait for a pullback confirmation before following.
Risks: Meme rotations are very fast; once the hype fades, sharp cliff-like retracements often occur. If the overall market weakens, even independent rallies won’t hold—don’t go all in.
This is analysis only, not advice; trade at your own risk. Do you think it’s better to try light positions on the pullback near 0.0050, or wait for volume to firmly hold above 0.0056 before following?
$PUMP $BTC $ETH $SOL
Monday open. First real fade.
$BTC — around $83.4K.
Lost the $84K shelf. High $85.0K.
Hold $83.2K or $80K is next. Reclaim $85.2K to restart $87.4K.
$ETH — around $2,653.
Testing $2.64K. Floor still $2.60K.
$2.77K is dead until a close.
$SOL — around $121.
Gave $125 back. $117 is the line. $110 if that fails.
Weekend was noise. This is the print.
$84K back or $80K. No middle.BTC dips to 82K, referring to support, not a prediction
A trader gave a position before the market opened.
BTC might test 82K.
What does this price level mean:
It’s not a target price, but the place where others place orders to buy.
If it falls there, someone buys; if it breaks below, it moves to the next level.
How is this number calculated:
In the same analysis, the memory sector is waiting for the MU earnings report.
Before the earnings report, funds don’t enter the market, so the price fluctuates back and forth.
Mainstream coins fluctuate along, and 82K is the lower boundary formed by this fluctuation.
On the day the earnings report comes out, this level most likely won’t hold.
The people placing orders will change, and the position will change accordingly.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC $MU $DOGE
Why does DOGE always attract liquidity faster when sentiment warms up?
Its high recognizability and deep liquidity make it an amplifier of risk appetite. If trading spreads, spot buying dominance, and overall market stability align, elasticity may continue to be released.
If the rise mainly comes from contract leverage, rapidly crowded funding rates, and insufficient spot volume, the pullback will also be faster.Losing 3000U really hurts
Earning less is losing
70 ETH long positions still floating with a profit of 17866U
But giving back the profit still hurts
Let's talk seriously
The real direction this week will be decided by the US August core PCE announced at 20:30 on Wednesday
Previous value 3.3%
Market expectation is also 3.3%
At 20:30 on Friday, there is also the US September non-farm payroll data
One decides inflation expectations
One decides interest rate hike expectations
My script is very straightforward
As long as core PCE is not higher than 3.3%
The market has a chance to trade that inflation has not worsened
If non-farm is a bit more moderate
The dollar and US Treasury yields will have room to fall back
So this week I still lean towards going long
—
$ETH has previously broken through the upper edge of the 2661 bull flag
Technical measurement target is 3050
Intermediate resistance is concentrated between 2775 and 2825
Key support below is between 2560 and 2565
As long as 2560 is not effectively broken down
My direction is to first look at 2800
After breaking through, then look at 3000
—
$ZEC retraced 4.36% in 24 hours
Trading volume about 1.24 billion USD
Market cap about 26.45 billion USD
Daily trend still bullish
But weekly chart has entered overbought territory
1544 and 1528 are short-term supports
Above, first look at 1606 and 1631
Only a new break above 1649 has a chance to challenge previous highs
Pullback to support and stabilize can buy more
Not suitable to chase the rise directly
—
$SNDK closed at 1777.8 in the previous trading day
Institutions believe NAND is transforming from a cyclical product to an important component of AI infrastructure
1744 to 1750 is pullback support
Re-establishing above 1815 then look at 1880
SNDK is very volatile
Waiting for confirmation after US stock market opens before buying on dips is safer
—
But the chart is after all 100x leverage
Lock in some profits before data release
Don't let earning 3000U less turn into really losing 3000U
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Iran said it's about to start fighting, normally it should crash! Why was my newly opened $SOON short position immediately liquidated?
Tonight I saw the news, Iran said it is ready to reopen war with the US, Brent crude oil directly rose to $98. With such a huge geopolitical risk, shouldn't the crypto market drop?
So what happened? Nearly 70,000 people were liquidated, $192 million, longs and shorts each half. My SOON short position just opened and it went up, now it's down 214%, 10x leverage, the principal is gone and I'm still in debt.
Look at $USELESS, it went from a 2% loss to a 50% loss, truly useless as the name suggests. But $ONE is impressive, from a 16% gain to 164%, another double.
Honestly, the whole market is having a small coin uprising. Quant rose 61% in a week, Ethena up 54%, but my SOON and USELESS, one got liquidated, the other deeply stuck.
Honestly, I now doubt if there's some mysticism in my coin selection. Others pick coins that go up, I pick the ones that fall the most. Three positions: one short liquidated, one long deeply stuck, one long doubled.
Now I don't care anymore, anyway $ONE's profit has long covered the losses of the other two. That is to say, can the next time not reverse right after opening a position? Give me some buffer time, please? $Circle is rapidly completing the full financial infrastructure of “USDC → BTC collateral → lending → cross-chain → global distribution” after launching on the Arc mainnet.
First, let's look at the most important part: BTC → cirBTC → borrow USDC
On September 21, Circle officially launched Digital Asset-Backed Borrowing (DABB). Eligible institutional clients can:
Deposit BTC into Circle → mint cirBTC 1:1 → collateralize on Arc / Ethereum → borrow USDC through Morpho → USDC directly returns to Circle Mint.
Circle clearly states that Morpho is the first supported third-party lending protocol, with plans to add protocols including Aave later. This means Arc has begun to see real credit demand:
BTC is the collateral asset → cirBTC is the on-chain collateral → USDC is the lending asset → Arc is the trading and settlement network.
Moreover, Circle now shows cirBTC exists simultaneously on both Arc and Ethereum.9.28 BTC
Last week's BTC trading review
The weekly BTC real trading session concluded, with a total gain of over seventy-five thousand in four trading days
Mainly, the big profit came from Monday's main upward wave, entering around 81500 and holding all the way up above 84000, three trades each gaining over three thousand points
Other trading days were just small gains in a volatile market
The main strategy was to follow the trend
Following the trend sounds simple but is hard to do
The difficulty lies in overcoming your own subjective judgment and going against your own human nature
The market is always right, just follow it
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 "Losses Rise to $387.5 Million, Bitget's Real Test Comes at 4 PM"
The most noteworthy issue at noon is not the coin price, but a trust stress test for the exchange.
Fact: Bitget confirmed that on September 24, some hot and warm wallets were subject to unauthorized transfers; after adding transactions involving ZEC, TRON, and others, the affected amount was revised upward from $351.6 million to $387.5 million. The official statement says cold wallets and user balances were not affected, the attack originated from the wallet backend system rather than private key leakage, and the vulnerability has been fixed.
Why it matters: $387.5 million accounts for about 83.5% of its disclosed $464 million protection fund. Although the ledger can cover it, this does not mean liquidity has been fully tested.
The real contradiction is: the platform says "assets are safe," but users want to see if they "can freely withdraw."
BTC withdrawal is scheduled to resume today at 16:00, ETH and USDT withdrawals are arranged for September 29 and 30 respectively, and other assets are postponed until October 2.
Conditional judgment: If BTC withdrawals open on time without new abnormal transfers, it indicates initial risk control; if delays continue or reserve and protection fund updates lack transparency, trust pressure may increase.
What the hacker took was assets; whether withdrawals can be fulfilled determines how much trust the platform can retain.
Which do you care about more? A. Whether withdrawals resume on time / B. Whether the protection fund is sufficient and transparent
#Bitget #ExchangeSecurity #Crypto #OnChainSecurityYesterday I said to be bearish on $BTC, and now the short positions have started to show profits. My thinking hasn't changed.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
After BTC failed to break above around 87K, it has been pressured near 84K and couldn't reclaim 85K over the weekend. Now 83K–83.5K is the key short-term support; if it breaks below here, the next target is 80K. If 80K doesn't hold either, the next target is around 76K.
What's more interesting is that in the past week, the net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs reached about $2.4 billion, a near one-year high, yet BTC still dropped from 87K back to around 84K. Money is flowing in, but the price can't rise; the selling pressure above is very obvious.
So I won't rush to change direction just because of one or two rebound candles during the session. I'll hold the profitable short positions and focus on 83K and 80K. As long as 83K breaks, the bearish space opens up; only if it reclaims 85.5K–87K will I consider going long.ETH Morning Observation｜Approaching a Turning Point, Main Uptrend Poised to Launch
Recently, ETH has been oscillating repeatedly within the 2642–2723 range, failing to achieve an effective breakout for three consecutive days. Bulls and bears have fiercely contested the upper and lower boundaries of this range; although the price has approached these edges multiple times, it has never formed a decisive break. From the candlestick pattern perspective, the current sideways structure closely resembles the accumulation phase before a major uptrend historically, representing a typical pre-breakout formation.
The long-term trend remains bullish, and this round of consolidation is more likely a mid-term pause in an upward trajectory rather than a trend reversal signal. During the ongoing sideways movement, short-term floating positions are gradually being cleared, and stop-loss orders within the range are being systematically eliminated, accumulating momentum for a subsequent upward breakout. My personal judgment is that the market will likely face a directional choice between Tuesday and Wednesday; if volume increases and the price stabilizes above 2730, a new main uptrend phase will open, and a strong rally is expected to officially begin.
On the macro front, multiple U.S. economic data releases are scheduled this week. Inflation and employment figures will directly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace, significantly increasing macro uncertainty. Volatility is expected to surge rapidly around these data releases.
ETH showed a linked downward move in the morning session, mainly triggered by a sharp plunge in gold prices, which dragged BTC down simultaneously, causing ETH to passively retreat with the broader market. This decline is a sentiment transmission from the macro asset side and does not indicate a breakdown of ETH's own bullish structure. $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC Stimulus! BTC is stuck oscillating repeatedly around 83,000. Surprisingly, there are over 1 billion USD long positions buried below.
Current price is 83,775. If it drops to 80,516, it will trigger liquidation of 1.047 billion long positions; breaking through 88,520 will eat up 985 million short positions. The chip structure has already changed.
Key reminder: The liquidation pressure below is heavier, and once reached, a stampede is very likely! Weekend liquidity is poor, so spikes and stop hunts are normal; breaking a price point does not equal a trend reversal. There are a large number of short positions piled up at 88,520, making the breakthrough quite difficult.
My long position plan: enter at 84,000–84,100, stop loss at 83,450. There is still distance from 80,516, so it is temporarily safe. But once the stop loss is hit, the next risk zone is the billion-dollar liquidation below.
Orders expire at 23:00, do not hold positions over the weekend!
Target is 84,800–85,100.
Remember! 80,516 is only a risk reference point, not a must-hit level. Strictly follow discipline, exit once stop loss is broken, don’t stubbornly hold on 🔥
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件