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The Fed's September rate decision lands Sept 16 at 18:00 UTC. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC have shifted to a 25bps hike; 86 of 101 economists in a Reuters survey agree, market pricing near 90%. If delivered, fed funds moves to 3.75%-4.00%. Key data: August PPI 5.4% YoY, CPI 0.4% MoM. Goldman sees this as the Fed avoiding a pricing reversal rather than reacting to worsening fundamentals. Trump remains opposed. If the Fed holds, how it explains the inflation-policy gap will be watched.
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On the eve of the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, the market is still betting on a dovish Powell
Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16 Eastern Time (September 17, 2:00 AM Beijing Time). According to data released last week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, higher than economists' expected 0.2%. The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting.
As of press time, the probabili
This time it's really different.
Originally, the market was still betting on "no change," but in the past few days expectations suddenly reversed, and now the market has priced in a 25 basis point rate hike at a very high level.
On September 15-16, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will take place. What’s really worth watching is not "whether to raise rates," but: after the rate hike, will they continue to raise?#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
“CLARITY Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.”
“FOMC is expected to hike rates tomorrow, so BTC will dump even harder.”
What they’re missing is that markets price in expectations before the news actually hits. That’s why BTC is selling off ahead of the announcements.
By the time the headlines give everyone a reason to sell, the market may have already absorbed the move—and those late sellers could simply be selling into the bids that form the bottom.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
Crypto Market Update Sept. 15
Crypto is turning defensive ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision, while the CLARITY Act just suffered a major Senate setback.
$BTC around $76K–$77K
$76K is the key floor. Lose it decisively and downside risk increases. Reclaim $78K, then $80K, and the structure improves.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
“The Clarity Act won’t pass, so $BTC is going to dump further.”
“A rate hike is expected tomorrow with FOMC, so BTC is going to dump even more.”
Little do they know, the market has already priced in those expectations. That’s why it’s dumping BEFORE the news is released.
By the time the news gives the crowd a reason to sell, they are already selling into the very bids that mark the bottom.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49
Brothers, today's market basically digested the pressure from the news.
With the FOMC approaching, the market is trading ahead on rate hike expectations, combined with high US Treasury yields and oil prices, US stocks weakened, and risk assets are generally under pressure. $BTC has fallen all the way back to around 75,000, $ETH also dropped to around 2350, and the blockage of the CLARITY Act further amplified market sentiment#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
FOMC WATCH VOLATILITY COULD HIT HARD
The CLARITY Act failed 49–50, while Bitcoin ETFs saw $450M in outflows and $570M in futures liquidations.
$BTC slipped below 76k , while $XRP dropped -0.77% .$ETH around $25k
Now all eyes are on the Fed decision at 2 PM ET.
CME FedWatch: 92.7% odds of a 25bps hike.
Expect volatility around the decision.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49
🚨 $BTC ENTERS THE FED DECISION WITH $75K IN FOCUS
Bitcoin is hovering near $75.8K after yesterday’s sharp sell-off, with markets pricing around a 93% chance of a 25-bps Fed hike today.
The bigger question is the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could pressure risk assets, while softer signals may shift market sentiment quickly.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49
$BTC Remains at its range low region ahead of FOMC today.
Hike is priced in for ~90%. The key will be to see whether Warsh brings a hawkish presser with it as well. If he wants to crush inflation no matter what and keeps the door open for more hikes that'd not be great for risk assets.
But if the dot plot doesn't move much and this hike is more of a one and done kind of move, then that should see some positive moves by risk assets including $BTC.#OpenAI1.2TPreIPO
The last time the Fed kept rates unchanged, $BTC still dropped around 4%. Now markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate hike. Despite yesterday’s CLARITY setback, Bitcoin is still defending the $75K area. The key question now is whether BTC can hold this support or face another wave of selling once the Fed decision hits.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates