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星期天-77
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$SOL is currently at $101. But next Wednesday, the confirmation time on this chain will be reduced from 12.8 seconds to 0.15 seconds.
Last night, the CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations; tonight, the PPI year-over-year is 6.3%, a full percentage point higher than expected. The crypto market saw $982 million liquidated in 24 hours, with 185,000 people liquidated, over 90% of whom were long positions. SOL dropped more than 4%, with futures contract liquidations around $31 million, 93% of which were longs.
Meanwhile, the US spot SOL ETF has had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, with $24.81 million outflow last week. Money on-chain is moving, macro money is moving. But there is something overlooked in the screenshot you took: the 1-hour RSI is pressed near 29, which is an extreme oversold condition—short-term bearish momentum has been excessively released.
Meanwhile, fundamental money is doing something else. Circle minted about 750 million USDC on Solana in the past 24 hours. The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to activate on October 21, reducing the final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of about 85 times.
ETF outflows reflect macro pricing, the upgrade reflects micro fundamentals. They are not on the same time dimension, but the price only reflects the former. The $100 level is not a technical level, it is a psychological level. What happens if it breaks? The market is already asking this question.
$UNI has dropped like this, isn't it going to rebound?
First, let's be clear: it hasn't been a one-way drop in the past three days; it's been oscillating between 7.23 and 7.90, with the current price at 7.43, in the lower third of that range.
RSI(6) has been pushed down to 18, the lowest in these three days, but RSI(24) is still at 41, indicating short-term oversold but not medium-term.
To see a rebound, we need to wait for a candlestick to close back above the lower boundary at 7.45; a single lower shadow doesn't count.
$SOL's movement today, I can only say: two times it surged high, two times it failed to hold.
All Sunday it hovered between 109 and 110, so flat that I was too lazy to even open it. Then that bullish candle at midnight suddenly pulled from just over 109 to 112, I was asleep and completely missed it.
Woke up in the morning and, wow, it had already finished rising.
At noon, another big bullish candle pushed it straight up to 113.4. I had already clicked into the order page, thinking maybe this time it would break through. But within two hours, bearish candles came one after another, and now it's back to 111.3, basically back to where it was at midnight.
All for nothing.
The most frustrating part is, I checked more than twenty times today, didn’t dare chase when it was rising, wanted to buy the dip when it was falling, and ended up doing nothing. If I had just honestly closed the app and slept, the result would have been the same, and I might have saved some hair.
Last week SOL dropped hard, so I really don’t trust this small rebound today. Every time I think "it's stable," it hits me like this—I’m almost developing a conditioned reflex.
Right now I’m just watching the 111 line; if it holds, I’ll consider it still consolidating, if it doesn’t, then today’s rise was for nothing.
Anyway, I’m not making a move.
Did you guys get in today? Or like me, just watching without acting?
$ETH has been making me feel a bit frustrated these days.
It dropped below 2600 on Wednesday and has been hovering around 2500 for the past couple of days. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows for several consecutive trading days, with over 47,000 tokens flowing out on Thursday alone, totaling 190,000 over seven days.
Wow, institutions are really pulling out.
What makes me even more uneasy is another piece of news: Tom Lee from BitMine said that once holdings reach 5% of the circulating supply, they will stop accumulating. This buyer has always been a major ETH purchaser, consistently taking the other side of the trade, meaning that hand that’s been buying will gradually withdraw.
Of course, I don’t know when they’ll be fully invested. But hearing "the biggest buyer is almost done buying" while the price keeps drifting downwards feels off. It doesn’t necessarily mean it will drop, but it’s unsettling.
Technicians say 2500 to 2560 is support, and if that doesn’t hold, it might go down to 2350. Honestly, I’ve heard this kind of talk too many times; support is support only if it holds, otherwise it’s just a number.
I still have some ETH, haven’t sold, but haven’t dared to add more either. Sometimes I wonder if I should reduce my position to a level where I can sleep peacefully.
What about you? Are you holding, selling, or waiting with your ETH?"
$ZEC (October 11):
Volatility: Bollinger Band width is about $22, one-ninth of what it was on October 8
Price: 1,235.08, squeezed between the middle band at 1,228 and the upper band at 1,239
RSI(6): 58.24, neither hot nor cold
Funds: ETF weekly outflow dropped from $93.56 million to about $12.05 million by Wednesday this week
Diagnosis: Selling pressure is easing, but no one is willing to make the first move yet. Direction awaits a breakout.
$BTC has barely moved in these past dozen hours, hovering between 82,700 and 83,200.
On the morning of 10/10, it dipped to 81,560, then pulled back to 83,000. The Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly, and there aren't many people around over the weekend.
After such a squeeze, it always picks a direction, but I won't guess which way it'll go.
$SUI This week's news and price trends went in two directions:
News: 40.6M TPS stress test, Samsung Wallet introduces USDC transfers, Hashi launches with a $500 million commitment
Price: Around 1.20 on October 6, lowest at 0.9978 early morning October 9, about -17%
When the overall market risk appetite is suppressed, project positives can't withstand macro factors: ETFs are outflows, yields are rising.
Currently 1.0867, rebounded about 8.9% from the low point.
$BTC's drop on Thursday was due to three factors coming together:
1. Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $729 million over two days, the largest since June according to Mudrex.
2. The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 5.2%, with oil prices and the dollar also rising.
3. During this downturn, reportedly about $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated.
The low was 80,400, now at 82,527. The rebound occurred after Trump said he wouldn't strike Iran before the midterm elections.
$BTC dropped to a new low for the month yesterday, but $ZEC did not follow with a new low.
On October 3rd, it touched 1271, then fluctuated between 1280 and 1380. Yesterday, even though BTC fell sharply, its lowest point only retraced to 1290.
I wouldn't say this is strong yet; it might just be that its turn hasn't come. I'll keep an eye on it to see if BTC can hold up if it drops further.
Gold falls, Bitcoin falls too, both for the same reason these past two days.
An oil tanker was attacked near Iran, pushing oil prices up to $101, U.S. Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, and risk assets all took a hit—$BTC dropped below 83,000, touching this month's low at 82,734; $550 million liquidated in 24 hours.
It's not that Bitcoin itself had issues; global funds are seeking safe havens. This time, neither gold nor Bitcoin served as safe-haven assets, and both got hit together. $XAU $CL
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
