wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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On days of sharp crashes, people most easily make two opposite mistakes. One is to see the waterfall-like plunge and keep shorting, thinking it can fall even further; the other is to see the frighteningly red market and rush in to bottom-fish, thinking that after such a big drop, a rebound must come. Both are being led by the market's nose. After years of playing cards, my deepest insight is that good decisions have nothing to do with the immediate outcome, only with the information you had when you placed your bet. When chasing the crash, you’re betting that emotions will get even more extreme; when bottom-fishing, you’re betting that emotions have already peaked. Neither can be accurately predicted. What you can really do is to predefine the price level that proves you wrong, and only act when the odds are in your favor.
When watching $BTC this morning, don't just focus on that green bar; look up at the Asian stock markets: the Nikkei once dropped nearly 5%, the Korean won led the decline, and the entire Asian session was risk-off. Crypto has never been an island. When the world's smartest money collectively shrinks risk exposure in the same period, the liquidity in the crypto space is often the first to be pulled out. The hot CPI is just the trigger; the real issue is that everyone is starting to doubt whether this round of AI and risk asset valuations can really hold up. On days like this, cash and patience themselves are a position, and often the highest returning one.
$BTC broke below 81,000 this morning with a single candle, $ETH was even more brutal, dropping 6% straight away, wiping out long positions en masse overnight. Interestingly, the market was as quiet as still water over the past week, everyone assumed low volatility would persist, and leveraged longs kept piling up at the top. The market's favorite move is to pull the rug out when everyone feels safest. This isn't a matter of direction, but of position structure: when it's one-sided, the side with more people gets liquidated. If you're trading leverage, don't just guess the price direction—first check if you're standing among the most crowded positions. Crowding itself is the biggest risk.
This morning, the Korean stock storage chain was hit hard, with Samsung down 6% and SK Hynix down 7%. Here's another data point: foreign investors have already sold a total of 176 trillion Korean won worth of Samsung and Hynix this year, making the market look like it's collapsing. But looking deeper, JPMorgan just said that the average price of HBM will still rise 54% by 2027, Hynix itself forecasts a 20-fold increase in AI infrastructure performance scale by 2030, and high storage costs in Q3 are suppressing demand, with no easing on the supply side. The pit caused by panic selling and the pit caused by deteriorating fundamentals are two different things. As a low-frequency player, I wait for the moment when sentiment mistakenly kills good assets down to the floor. What I catch is the oversold rebound, not the flying knife; the difference lies in whether you have thought through the failure point in advance.
This week's market gave everyone a lesson. $BTC hovered around one price level for a whole week, with intraday volatility squeezed within two points, unusually quiet. I know who suffers the most in such a market—those itchy-handed short-term traders: they can endure a day of sideways movement, but after a week, they start to trade back and forth, buying low and selling high for more than a dozen rounds, thinking they're smart. But this morning, a single breakout candle came down, and they realized the whole week was wasted, and it would have been better to just hold. It's the same with poker—the hardest part isn't reading the cards, but resisting entering the pot when you have no good hand. Patience isn't a virtue; it's part of position management. This week, did you hold on, or did you get worn down?
This morning, glancing at the Korean stock market: Samsung fell 6% pre-market, SK Hynix dropped 7%, and overnight US stocks in the memory sector collectively plunged. Interestingly, a few days ago, the Micron CEO was loudly proclaiming that they had locked in $150 billion in long-term orders, expecting tighter supply next year and the year after compared to this year. The order story was booming, but the stock price can drop back in a single day. This is what I often tell people using leverage: when narrative and price diverge, trust the price first. Once the AI hardware chain starts to differentiate, the risk appetite retreat will immediately transmit to high-beta pools like $BTC. Don’t wait until it hits you in the face to react.
For those doing leverage, look at these two news items together this morning: on one side, Trump confidently says inflation is well controlled, only 1.7% in the past three months; on the other side, the market is doubling down on bets that the Fed will raise rates in December, with some experts even calling for a 50 basis point hike. The president's words and the money in interest rate futures are betting in opposite directions. At times like this, don't listen to who shouts the loudest, watch where the money is going. The rate hike expectations priced in with real money are the stone weighing down risk assets like $BTC. The higher the interest rates go, the lower the leverage level becomes—this is an unavoidable physical law. If you hold long positions, first think carefully about who you are betting against.
$BTC hovered around 86,000 for a whole week, and this morning it broke down sharply with one candle. $ETH followed, dropping three points. Someone messaged me asking if I should quickly take profits on my short positions. My habit is exactly the opposite: I didn't move during the sideways week, and I’m not in a hurry to close all positions on the day of the breakdown either. The biggest taboo in shorting is to panic and take profits as soon as the price moves a couple of steps in your favor—that's the same problem as chasing highs and selling lows. What I focus on is never the floating profit number, but whether the expected downward move has completed. If the expectation isn't finished, I hold the position. Do you think this is a real breakdown or just another fake-out?
