
spark🌟
spark🌟
X万粉博主,正在探索Crypto、AI、美股。
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The US stock market hasn't been doing well these past two days, and the $SPY, $SMH, and $VGT favored by Silicon Valley Hermit have all declined.
Index investors inside and outside the Great Firewall have started mocking and doubting him, with many similar comments appearing on various platforms:
"Silicon Valley Hermit is so funny" "With billions in assets, still caring about Twitter's returns"
Retail investors who worshipped index investing as the truth just a couple of months ago are now mocking and selling because of two days of decline. So how do you plan to stick with it for 10 or 20 years?
The fundamental assumption of reflexivity theory is that human cognition has inherent limitations.
What the Hermit tells everyone is to persist consistently with the theory; not everyone can be the protagonist of Forrest Gump.
As for me, I don't care about ups and downs. Choosing good assets and believing in good assets is what should be done.
Various projects have been collapsing these past two days, and the hype is visibly dying out. Here's a suggestion for those looking to pivot: participate in exchange activities.
For example, OKX has many prediction events where retail traders can easily earn over 1000 U. I participated in an OKX wallet event last month and actually received 100 U.
Here's a summary of ongoing OKX events:
1 - OKX Prophet S3 Earnings Season
Twitter event
Focus on US stock earnings predictions or use free XP to experience on-chain contracts/spot trading
Rewards range from 5 U to 60 U, determined by valid exposure and interaction
Duration: 10.16~10.22
2 - OKX Chinese Earnings Champion
Two events:
1/ Participate in all OKX Prophet earnings season predictions; only correct answers advance, with a final winner prize of 10,000 U
2/ Tweet with tag @okxchinese linking to the event post, share your earnings discussion posts on the platform, weekly draw of 100 U * 10 winners
3 - X Layer TapeOut Developer Acceleration Program
For developers
Build on-chain applications based on the TapeOut protocol
Prizes from 6,000 U to 20,000 U

The most convincing thing in financial markets is a strong bullish candlestick.
Changxin Technology surged another 12.66%, with a price of 52.95 yuan and a market value of 3.5 trillion yuan, continuing to write the legend of China's storage industry.
The short-term outlook remains bullish. Anyone who's played crypto knows that analyzing the industry chain or business at the start doesn't mean much; at the open, you can look at circulation, VC endorsements, and narratives!
Let's analyze the above situation:
1. Initial circulation
Total share capital 6.73%.
2. VC endorsement
Anhui Provincial Investment and Hefei State-owned Assets; Alibaba Group, Tencent Group, GigaDevice (founding company), Xiaomi; leading brokerages such as CICC, CITIC, and China Merchants; China Life Investment, PICC Capital, Sunshine Life, and other insurance funds.
3. Beautiful storytelling
The number one DRAM manufacturer in China and the fourth largest globally.
LPDDR series products are the main revenue driver, providing a large number of products for domestic mobile phones and laptops; DDR series products are also closely following industry leaders, contributing significant revenue growth in recent years.
Next, let's look at the unlocking dates of major restricted stocks:
January 27, 2027: Offline issuance restricted portion (approximately 1.521 billion shares).
July 27, 2027: Large number of shares restricted by original shareholders + partial strategic placement (totaling about 22.075 billion shares, involving GigaDevice, CMB affiliates, Tencent, Alibaba, Harmony Health, etc.).
Mid-2028 (around June): some shares (such as about 2.319 billion shares related to Alibaba Cloud Computing, etc.).
July 27, 2029: Largest unlocking (approximately 36.295 billion shares), mainly shareholders of core state-owned and employee platforms such as Qinghui Jidian, Changxin Integration, Big Fund Phase II, Hefei Jixin, and Anhui Provincial Investment.
In short, Changxin Technology's circulating supply is currently very low, and all domestic funds are flowing into the only storage narrative channel, so at least in the short term, there won't be a sharp drop!
What price do you think Changxin will push up in the short term?

Tired, family, just bought some $xSKHY $xMU, Changxin Technology is listed; just pondering the lithography machine track $ASML steady, China has produced a domestic lithography machine?!
Don't panic yet, let me analyze the situation for everyone:
DRAM - General memory
Hynix/Micron: 1c (6th generation 10nm level)
Changxin Technology: G4 (2nd generation 16nm level)
HBM - AI/GPU
Hynix leads, Micron follows closely, Changxin lags by 2-4 years
Lithography machines
ASML: EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) stage
Domestic: DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) stage
Overall, China's memory/lithography machines have completed the transition from zero to one, but the domestic semiconductor industry is still heavily constrained by EUV lithography machines.
Back to Changxin Technology's stock performance, it opened low at 45.22 yuan today, then rallied intraday to oscillate around 47~48 yuan. The market is pricing in that although Changxin is comprehensively behind, it has teamed up with domestic tech companies that are eagerly waiting, and its capacity/revenue has already improved...
For Changxin, I am bearish in the short term but bullish in the long term. Are you bullish or bearish on Changxin Technology?
Changxin Technology's IPO First Day: A Decade-Long Run Comes to Fruition
One subscription earned 20,000 yuan instantly!
Changxin Technology (688825) officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market, stepping onto the spotlight as a money-printing machine. Behind it stands the Hefei state-owned assets.
What exactly is the model of the venture capital god Hefei state-owned assets?
In 2016, the global DRAM market was controlled by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Zhu Yiming, founder of GigaDevice, and his team went around with their plan, but no one took the deal.
Ultimately, Hefei bet nearly one-third of its fiscal revenue, investing 14.4 billion yuan in the project codenamed “506.” What others dared not take, Hefei took on.
Today, Hefei state-owned assets hold about 36% of the shares, worth trillions!
Do you know what other companies Hefei state-owned assets have gone all-in on?
In 2008, Hefei state-owned assets devoted one-third of its fiscal revenue to fully support BOE Technology. Now Hefei has become the national base for the display industry.
In 2020, when NIO was deeply trapped in a cash flow crisis, Hefei made a strategic investment of 7 billion yuan. NIO reciprocated by relocating its headquarters to Hefei.
With these two investments, Hefei state-owned assets not only earned over 20 billion yuan but also kept the two most important industries in Hefei.
Is Hefei state-owned assets an invincible war god?
Actually, no, Hefei state-owned assets are not gods.
Rongsheng Heavy Industries, Xin Hao Plasma, Saiwei Photovoltaic, Peking University Weiming’s 20 billion yuan bio demonstration zone, the runaway WM Motor...
Hefei state-owned assets, like us, often suffer losses. But they have a "fault tolerance mechanism"—losses do not hold individuals accountable and encourage betting on quality technology and long-cycle projects.
Another point worth mentioning is that Hefei’s leadership team has been frequently investigated in recent years.
The closer to the money, the more severe the corruption.
In May, the newly appointed Party Secretary Fei Gaoyun was suspected of serious disciplinary violations. The Deputy Secretary, Vice Mayor, and High-tech Zone Secretary Song Daojun are among the many leaders who have encountered problems in just two years.
Of course, none of the detained officials have been disclosed to have any connection with Hefei’s core domestic tech companies or IPOs, nor would such connections be allowed.
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The Hefei model reminds me of Jiuding Group, which once suffered a massive loss of 1.5 million yuan. The same investment → IPO → exit capital, but Hefei’s industrial investment content is heavier, while Jiuding went down an irreversible path of illegality.
In the future, Hefei might really lead the Pearl River Delta to play together!

Unexpectedly, @misaENFP also has experience as an automotive blogger and is particularly knowledgeable about Tesla's business—truly an all-around expert!
Recently, I've been diving deep into Musk's stocks, using this opportunity to talk about $TSLA and $SPCX.
A preface first: I seriously suspect that Musk's two companies mapped out their future directions according to the Cash Cow and Dog categories (Boston Matrix) from day one.
Tesla:
After the Q2 earnings release, revenue exceeded expectations, yet the stock price dropped 17% over two days. Cars are selling so well, so why is the stock falling?
The reason is simple: Tesla is using all its revenue to keep burning cash—on Cybercab, Optimus, and AI (FSD and chips, etc.).
These three target driverless taxis, future robots, and autonomous driving, respectively, and all have reached the production stage. Among them, driverless taxis have the most promising rapid deployment.
What are Tesla's advantages in these three areas?
Extremely strong vertical integration, with the entire industry chain integrated in-house; AI data scale advantage is overwhelming, as all Tesla cars equipped with cameras can feed back data; significant cost control advantages. With these data points, Tesla will have the cheapest deployable products under a flywheel effect, which is a necessary condition for feasibility.
Investors hope to invest in a stable cash cow company, but unfortunately, that’s not Musk’s style. Musk is focused on building the future world.
SpaceX:
Recently, there has been intense discussion among investors about whether Starship V3 can fly. After deeply researching the satellite industry a few days ago, I am extremely optimistic about SpaceX’s future.
The core reason is simple: the future global communication network will belong to satellite networks.
The key is the Starlink V3 satellites launched by the newly flown Starship V3. Simply put, the capacity of Starlink sent up by one Starship V3 launch is 20 times the original... The era of global satellite networks is coming...
The low-earth orbit satellite field has already been occupied, conquered, and dominated by SpaceX.
In the long term, Starmind will be the largest source of future revenue. Space has absolute advantages like unlimited solar energy and radiation heat dissipation. In the future, Starmind will become the global supply side of computing power!
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Just felt like sharing all this—don’t underestimate Musk’s intelligence; he’s just outlining the infrastructure of the future world. Of course, these two stocks are long-term holdings, and it’s wise to build positions on dips in the short term.


SpaceX's Starship V3 successfully launched!!
The key point is the successful deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites!!
1 Starlink V3 = 10 Starlink V2
Single launch capacity increased 20 times!!
SpaceX is not far from dominating the global communication network
$SPCX has recently stabilized, buy on dips, target price $80
Let's compare the current status of the three small royal public chains:
$MEGA TVL remains at $46.58m, ranked 38
$BERA TVL remains at $51.06m, ranked 36
$MON TVL is $729.69m, ranked 11
Monad has indeed proven itself, but is the Monad chain really doing well?
Technically, it is indeed unbeatable, with a block time just reaching 300ms, making it the highest-performance EVM chain, and its DeFi performance is also very good.
On the other hand, the price is stuck at $0.02. Partly due to the poor market, but also a scary fact—no one cares or believes in crypto projects anymore.
The ecosystem performance can be said to be quite bad, with only a few funded projects:
aPriori ran away right after launch;
TownSquarexyz is quietly raising funds and then doing a public sale;
MuDigitalHQ has shut down;
perpltrade held on for a long time and finally got some points, but who still plays perp now?
The most interesting is KuruExchange, which launched an Agent trading competition combined with monad cards, claiming a $100,000 prize. I thought it was some fresh idea, but it’s just two dumb Kuru Agents auto-PKing, losing money whenever they move, and whoever’s machine lags and doesn’t move wins.
In short, as a nads, I really hope monad can bring some pride to the crypto native families and trigger a round of public chain market rally. After all, it already has the best fundamentals among new public chains, but the reality is frustrating.
Just sharing some random thoughts late at night, gmonad

The launch of SpaceX's Starship V3 has been delayed, but $SPCX actually rebounded.
Short-term fluctuations of individual stocks are simply unpredictable.
The most suitable investment method for ordinary people to earn ten million is to regularly invest in the US national fortune:
40% in Nasdaq 100, IQQ (expense ratio 0.1%)
20% in S&P 500, VOO (expense ratio 0.03%)
20% in popular individual stocks, high-growth sectors, deeply understood
10% in short-term trading, moderate short-term trading is better than suppressing desire
Choose ETFs with low fees and strong liquidity, bottom-fish high-growth individual stocks.
Assuming an annual investment of 100,000 yuan, after 30 years you will have 10 to 40 million yuan.

$SPCX crashed hard, all your research is meaningless, let me tell you the answer:
Analyzed with a large model, valued at an extremely high price-to-sales ratio, the stock price should be $45.
So the target bottom-buy price range is $50-$60!