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BTC repeatedly tests the gate at 84300, with highs and lows gradually moving upward step by step. Every pullback from 83000 to 84300 has not broken the previous low.
The 83500 level has just completed a role reversal — the previous resistance has been repeatedly tested and now has turned into support, which is the most typical signal of trend continuation.
If the volume breaks above 84300, the trading vacuum zone will open, with space targeting 86000 to 88000; if it fails to break, it will continue to consolidate sideways between 83500 and 84300.
Sideways movement is not weakness, but a shakeout and accumulation of strength. Consider re-entering after a stable pullback; do not chase the highs.
$BTC$W surged 60% and only then you thought about chasing? Brother, the good news has already been priced in, you're catching the last leg.
W skyrocketed 60% in 24 hours, I saw the square instantly boiling, all shouting "Charge" and "Get on board." Charge what? With such a sharp short-term rise, profit-taking can smash the price anytime, chasing in is just carrying others' load.
What's worse, the good news is known across the network — 2.0 token economy, staking introduced, the hype is hotter than the coin price. What does this mean? All the good news is out. The main players pump it up on the hype, then dump, and you're still shouting "the fundamentals are good."
There's also a hidden risk: biweekly unlocks. Every two weeks new coins flow into the market, selling pressure becomes normalized, and in the long run, it slowly dilutes the coins you hold. The longer you hold, the more it feels like you're catching the unlocking coins.
Finally, this rise is just sector momentum, W leading, ZRO and AXL following, pure emotional speculation. Once the hype fades and big money doesn't come in, it falls back the same way it rose.
Trading idea: don't chase longs. Short when it rebounds to a high and stalls, set stop loss above the previous high, target the initial launch level. If you want to follow, don't wait for a drop to ask if you can short. The good news is fully priced in, bears are ready to feast. Those who follow, hold tight, don't get scared off by small rebounds. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Did Big Brother Maji's trading strategy change?👀
The latest positions show a clear long-short hedging pattern:
🔻 $BTC: 40x short
🔺 $ETH: 25x long
🔻 $HYPE: 5x reversed to short
Once favoring heavy long positions, now starting to allocate by coin, preparing both long and short.
Whales are adjusting their strategies, ordinary traders should be even more cautious.⚠️
Do you think this is a preemptive layout or risk hedging? Let's discuss in the comments!
#BTC #ETH #HYPE #cryptocurrencyOpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注，WLD作为AI概念龙头随之承压。我的判断：短期情绪偏弱，但下方承接仍在。
现价0.5523，24h微涨0.8%，高点0.5859未能站稳。成交额2.12亿，资金费率仅0.0100%，多头情绪并不亢奋。订单簿买卖比0.92，卖方略占优，持仓7322.4万币本位。1小时距低已19.71%，追高风险大。
策略一：回踩0.5447轻仓接多，止损0.5313，目标0.5789。策略二：若放量突破0.5873再追，止损0.5621，目标0.6127。仓位控制在两成以内，破位即离场。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——
$WLD#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 $WLD $PENGU observation order broke the low point, not chasing for now
The observation order has dropped from 0.00859 USDT to the current 0.008228 USDT, a decline of 4.21%. More importantly, the just closed 5-minute candlestick at 0.008232 USDT is even lower than the reference low point of 0.008431 USDT at that time, with the price directly running to the lower edge of the range.
I originally planned to wait until it leaves the high position before acting, now it has indeed come down, but the way it came down is a bit weak. The recent 15-minute trading volume is only 0.86 times the average of the previous 3 hours, no volume surge seen, so I’m temporarily not considering this break as a breakout.
So for now, I’m not chasing, nor am I in a hurry to change the observation order. Let it fluctuate at this low level first, see if it can form a decent structure on its own before making any moves.Today's leader is STRK, up 55% in 7 days, currently around $0.12.
The founder of StarkWare came out saying they are seriously considering making Starknet independent from Ethereum to become an L1, aiming to complete quantum resistance upgrades before 2027, while Ethereum itself is scheduled for 2029. Key point: this is just an intention, no proposal yet. The entire ZK sector is rising.
The trend is bullish, but I’m not chasing; I will time my shorts.
This round is contract-driven, with about $3.5 billion in contract volume in 24 hours, a 4x ratio of perpetual/spot volume, leverage markets can reverse quickly.
Watch October 15: 127 million STRK unlock. If it holds $0.10 after unlocking, the upside target is $0.15; if it falls below $0.09, consider this rebound over.
The biggest risk is that the L1 plan has no formal proposal yet, so the narrative could fade.
Do you think "L2 going independent as L1 for quantum resistance" is a real demand or just a story told to the market? Discuss in the comments.
$STRK #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Recently, there has been a clear divergence between volume and price. Institutional funds continue to flow in through channels like ETFs, but BTC's upward momentum is weak and repeatedly pressured. The core reason is that institutional buying is done in batches as long-term base positions, not speculative incremental buying to actively push prices up. The buying strength is insufficient to absorb multiple layers of selling pressure.
The macro environment is the biggest constraint. Inflation data remains uncertain, and the market continues to price in the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for longer, with the possibility of further rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, increasing the holding costs of risk assets. As long as expectations for rate cuts are delayed, highly elastic crypto assets will struggle to experience a sustained rally, and Nasdaq volatility will continue to suppress the market.
On the trading side, the previous rebound has accumulated a lot of profit-taking positions, combined with dense technical resistance above, each rally easily triggers profit-taking exits. Leverage is concentrated on the long side in the derivatives market, so if a rally fails, it can cause a chain of liquidations that offset ETF net inflows. Meanwhile, regulatory and geopolitical news repeatedly disturb the market, making funds cautious about going long and reluctant to chase highs.
Simply put: institutions accumulate slowly on dips rather than actively pushing prices up; for the market to open upward space, it still needs a warming of macro liquidity expectations and the resonance of incremental speculative funds entering. The current phase leans more toward a pattern of oscillation and bottoming.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Don't be fooled by "Strong BTC, Weak ETH": One is testing the bottom, the other is hanging in the air 🪂
The market looks like a psychological battle. After BTC pierced the 4H resistance and then pulled back, it didn't collapse directly; the lower levels gradually formed support, indicating bulls are still defending. There might be a shadow of a short-term bottom, but volume hasn't kept up, so this support is like building a stage on sand, ready to be trampled again at any time. ⚠️
ETH is even more awkward: grinding against the 4H resistance without breaking through, but with no support beneath. A rebound without support isn't a rebound; it's walking a tightrope. Once BTC turns back, ETH is very likely to be the first to lose weight. Capital isn't blind; the weaker side is being drained. 😰
Sentiment is also unfriendly: open interest is declining, funding rates are neutral, and incremental funds are on the sidelines. More dangerous is that the ETH long-short ratio is still above 2.0, with retail investors stubbornly holding on, which easily triggers a long squeeze and a stampede. 🔥
Conclusion: Divergence is not an opportunity, it's an alarm. BTC's strength may just be a cover; ETH's lack of support is the real danger. Don't chase, don't gamble, don't catch a flying knife. Control your hands, endure the bottoming process, protect your principal, and wait for the true dawn. $BTC $ETH A single revenue announcement from OpenAI can make investors in several AI companies nervous at once. Looking back at CoreWeave's Q2 2026 financial report, three major clients contributed 36%, 26%, and 10% of the quarterly revenue respectively, totaling 72%. This is an anonymous client classification disclosed by the company, so we cannot arbitrarily assign names to any company, but it is enough to remind us: people who bought different codes may still be relying on the budgets of the same group of clients.
If a major client of a computing power supplier adjusts their purchases, the impact may be transmitted to other companies through orders, equipment investments, and financing arrangements. Different positions in the industry chain bear the changes at different times. Simply buying chips, cloud services, and model-related assets and assuming diversification is complete may be too optimistic.
AI demand still deserves study. What worries me is that everyone only compares how fast each company grows, forgetting to check who the growth depends on. Having many clients looks reassuring; but if most revenue is still decided by a few major clients, a change in their purchasing budget may not be compensated by smaller clients.
So regarding this revenue controversy, I want to trace which companies the concerned firms actually sell to, and which conditions their contracts depend on for fulfillment. There are many lively companies in the industry, but the number of people actually paying may not be as many as imagined. After reviewing client concentration, discussing diversification will be more grounded.
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 Brothers, I'm stubborn, I'm going in first, short position first as a salute!
Taking advantage of the macro pressure from the interest rate hike meeting not yet fully revealed, I'm setting up a short position first.
$ETH surged from 2473 to 2578, now stuck around 2564.
The 2580 level above has been tested twice but failed to break through, a typical resistance level.
MA5 and MA10 are still rising but clearly starting to flatten, and volume is shrinking.
On the news side, "Dialogue with Papertrade co-builder Jez" talks about the market, all ambiguous nonsense with no substantial positive news.
I entered a short at 2564.09, the rate hike is imminent, chasing longs at this level is just handing money to the manipulators.
I'm burying the short position first, waiting for the macro shoe to drop, let the bullets fly for a while.
$BTC
$MAGIC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $DOS DOSUSDT perpetual contract, current price 0.2847, increase +4.82%
1. Market Cap & Token Supply
• Current circulating market cap: 380 million yuan, ranked 168 in market cap, classified as a small to mid-cap altcoin, small market size, easily manipulated by funds.
• Total max supply: 1 billion tokens, current circulation only 200 million tokens, circulation rate 20%
2. Objective Analysis of Current Situation
1. Market phase: sharp rise after launch followed by deep correction
At the initial launch, funds pushed the price up to a high of 2.25, then a large amount of funds cashed out and exited, price continued to decline, representing a downtrend after a hype burst. Now around 0.28 there is a slight rebound (+4.82%), which is just a short-term bounce during the downtrend, not a reversal.
2. Biggest risk in token structure: large amount of locked tokens
Circulation rate only 20%, 80% of tokens are locked. Once unlocking starts later, large amounts of tokens will flood the market, directly crashing the price. Token unlocking is the most common trigger for sharp crashes in altcoins.
Whales/project teams hold huge amounts of unreleased tokens and can dump anytime.
3. Objective Opportunities and Risks (for information analysis only, no trading advice)
Short-term potential opportunity (theoretical only)
AI+Web3 theme, if the market re-hypes this sector, a small amount of speculative funds entering could cause small-cap coins to experience rapid short-term rebounds.
Extremely high risk (key point)
1. Unlocking sell pressure risk (top risk): 80% of tokens are not circulating, future unlocking will bring huge sell pressure, capable of crashing the price anytime. This morning it was said that 84 didn't hold, current price around 835 — now it has touched back around 84000, just now it even poked 84360 then pulled back. Monday's move is like a spring being twisted repeatedly.
Answer: It has been lifted back, but it's still early to say 84 is firmly held. 24-hour high 84361, low about 82957, current price roughly 84000 — climbed from 83.5 back to the doorstep of 84 within half a day, ETF big accounts were still selling last week, the knife is still hanging before the 10/14 CPI.
My plan: Don't chase longs near 84; those who are short, don't rush to flip to dead longs. First watch the CPI release on Wednesday, then decide if this move is a floor retest or a fake lift before the second cut.
Where do you stand now: A Hold through CPI once it touches back 84, or B Take profits at the doorstep of 84 and wait for the cut? Comment below, #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $BTC I'll reply one by one.On October 12, BTC rebounded from a low of $80,400 to above $84,000, reclaiming the $83,000 level. A week ago, BTC was still above $86,000, then it steadily dropped below $81,000 and $80,000, hitting a low of $80,400. The aftermath of this sharp decline has not yet dissipated, but the rebound has already begun. Where does the momentum for the rebound come from? The most direct driver of this rebound is short covering. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network was about $162 million, of which short liquidations accounted for about $113 million, or 69.5%. When the price broke through $84,000, about $83 million worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated. The buying generated by forced short covering further pushed the price higher. The signals from the capital side are much more complex. On October 9, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $21.1 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $22.4 million. But placing this figure in the context of last week's overall picture greatly diminishes its significance. In the first week of October (October 5 to 9), BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of $678.9 million, whereas the previous week still saw a net inflow of $241.1 million. The capital outflow was mainly concentrated on October 7 and 8, with a combined outflow of $729 million over the two days. On October 7 alone, there was a net outflow of $484.9 million, the largest single-day outflow since late June, with BlackRock IBIT outflowing $207.7 million and Fidelity FBTC outflowing $105 million The asset perspectives of two generations are changing shifts.
On the left is the "Old Generation Asset Perspective": Moutai, jadeite, jade, luxury watches, calligraphy and paintings, rosewood, school district housing, commercial shops.
The logic is — the longer you hold, the more valuable it becomes, provided there is someone to take over.
On the right is the "New Generation Asset Perspective": BTC, gold, computing power, multi-currency accounts, overseas brokers, multiple passports, offshore companies, subscription income, personal IP.
The logic is — able to leave anytime, able to liquidate anytime, provided you are not trapped.
One places hope in "someone taking over," the other holds the initiative in their own hands.
Which side are you on?
#资产观 #代际差异 #BTC #个人IP #全球化 After enduring several restless nights, the market has finally staged a decent rebound. Now that the sentiment has cooled off, setting aside those baseless anxieties, we return to the pure essence of trading, combining the latest macro and industry news for an objective breakdown
$BTC (Macro suppression, key watershed)
Entry price 81,743.6, current price 83,950.9.
BTC is currently oscillating between 83,000 and 84,000. Important to note the fundamental signal: US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million last week, marking the largest weekly outflow since June
$ETH (Ecological benefits, catching up)
Entry price 2,474.81, current price 2,563.8.
ETH has finally caught up, breaking through the 2550 resistance. On the news front, there is a medium-term positive: Ethereum's next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, has completed final confirmation on the Sepolia testnet
$DOGE (Technical reversal, vanguard)
Entry price 0.08423, current price 0.08779
DOGE has been the brightest performer this round, driven by a major technical signal—the daily chart shows the first "golden cross" in 14 months, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, an important reversal signal after a long-term downtrend
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ "Triple Resonance at 3 AM"
Early morning surge, shorts were cleared again. $167 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, shorts accounted for $115 million or 69.5%, 2.2 times the longs; BTC shorts liquidated $35.08 million, ETH shorts liquidated $26.57 million. BTC surged from 80427 to 84199, currently at 83950, up 1.18%; ETH at 2546, up 1.66%.
The trigger lies outside the candlestick: The US Treasury expanded 20/30-year bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to decline. Standard Chartered's Kendrick said this is the most beneficial scenario for Bitcoin—risk-free yields drop, narrowing the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets. Trump urged Congress to pass the "Clarity Act" and said he plans to buy Bitcoin heavily; Hyperliquid tokens rose about 20% in 24 hours, BlackRock's IBIT trading volume exceeded the 30-day average by more than 4.5 times.
Strategy: Around BTC 83950, short liquidation of $115 million is a catalyst, but 84264 is SMA20 resistance, 86575 upper band and 87396 monthly high are hard ceilings; do not chase longs above 84000, confirm on pullback to 81953. ETH near 2546, 2487 lower band support, reduce positions if breaking below 2359; 2557 is SMA50 resistance, only look to 2652 if it stands above. SOL linked at 111.65, short-term resistance at 112.75, support at 105.
Shorts lifted, whales repositioning, Trump’s remarks—three forces resonating in one night. But liquidity-driven rallies come fast and retreat fast; in greed, know who is exiting.PUMP unlock day didn't crash the market, but the 0.006 wall is real
Today pump.fun has about $43.5 million worth of tokens unlocking, and the market is still talking about changes to the incentive mechanism. As usual, days like this should be avoided, but the early session surged all the way to 0.006036, up nearly 9%, and the unlocking panic simply didn't happen—bad news without a drop is itself a bullish signal.
But the market isn't that strong: current price is 0.00584, that surge was pushed back to the middle Bollinger band by the 0.006 round number resistance and the upper Bollinger band at 0.006029, it hasn't even reclaimed MA5 (0.005853), MACD quietly turned slightly negative, RSI at 57 is not overbought, and the latest candle left an upper shadow and closed nearly flat. In other words, sellers aren't rushing to dump, but there are still plenty of tokens waiting to be sold above 0.006.
A reminder: on OKX this trading pair's 24-hour volume is only about 5.81 million USDT, PUMP's main battlefield is on Solana chain DEXs, where order books are thin and easy to pull or dump, so don't rely on depth as support.
I won't chase this upper shadow. Watch two points: whether volume can push back above the intraday high of 0.00603 and the upper Bollinger band—only reclaiming these means the unlocking bearish pressure is fully absorbed; if it can't break through, watch the middle band at 0.00584 and further support at 0.005636. Whether the mother chain SOL is stable and whether the on-chain meme coin issuance can continue are the real underlying indicators. DYOR, not investment advice.
#PUMP #Solana #MemeMy position doubled, from 3500u to 7000u, in about three days, but I'm not a genius trader. I'm just a trader riding the good upward trend of BTC from 80300 to 84000 points this time.
I just saw a brother turn 32 dollars into 160,000 in three days. Unfortunately, he pulled back 120,000. I currently have an unrealized profit of 4000u. If the trend reverses, there might be a pullback, so I’m not relaxed mentally.
I saw that brother turn 32 dollars into 5000 times by opening a very large position and rolling it over. I wonder if my position size is too small, too conservative? But the problem is, if you max out your leverage and position size, a small fluctuation can wipe out your principal. Also, how can you guarantee your entry point takes off without any pullback? So luck, operation, and mindset are all indispensable. Only the ultimate gambler meeting the ultimate market luck can achieve that. Small funds can try quality altcoins like that, but with big funds, I feel it’s better to stick to mainstream coins. I probably won’t play altcoins; if I do, it would be with a principal of one or two hundred u.
I’ll stick to my own pace: double up when the trend is good, and if not, it won’t be a big hit. At least I’m surviving, but making big money only happens in big trends. When the big trend comes, just go all out.
This time I actually went all out. I set stop-loss levels and almost opened a 20x position, going all in long. Fortunately, the trend hasn’t pulled back much so far, so my mindset is good. I hope the upward trend continues. Grateful for all the luck! Let’s go!The CFTC is exploring a new federal regulatory pathway to allow registered trading platforms to offer leveraged and margin crypto spot trading to retail investors. $BTC
If the rules are implemented, some trading volume that originally flowed to offshore platforms may return to the compliant U.S. market.
The market has started speculating on on-chain trading platforms like Hyperliquid, but the current policy targets U.S.-registered trading venues and does not directly approve any specific platform.
Regulatory openness is a long-term positive, but project benefits still need to be verified case by case.
#CFTC#HYPE faces another 100 million yuan release, with Japanese companies entering the market for the first time Here's something: This Wednesday, the Dogecoin ETF in the US will stop trading.
The fund company will convert the DOGE inside into cash and return it to the holders through the original channel, no action needed from them. From listing to liquidation, it lasted less than eleven months, managing assets of less than $700,000 — no big whale accounts.
I was stunned for two seconds when I saw the news. Not because I panicked, but it reminded me of my wallet back in 2017, stored on an old laptop that sounded like a tractor running its fan for five minutes at startup. Back then, no institution cared about Dogecoin, and the letters "ETF" had nothing to do with us. My mom said it was a scam, and I didn’t argue because I really had no proof.
Then institutions came. Now they’re gone again. Even the CEO said the outcome is quite regrettable; people just don’t want to put money in here.
Alright, money may not come, but the dog is still the same dog.
All these years, the thing that kept me up late was never any fund, but $DOGE on the screen. On Wednesday night, I’ll light an incense stick for it — just kidding, I’ll only open my wallet to take a look. If someone has walked the path, it proves the path is real. If fewer people walk it, we old-timers will keep going.$FIL long positions continue to win easily, current profit with 50x leverage +694.01%!
To recap, decisively entered at the 1.0886 bottom consolidation last night, peaked at 1.2769.
Currently, the 4-hour level J value has reached a high of 95, showing signs of a short-term pullback after a surge.
Brothers on board, pay attention, the main force has started shaking out positions. It is recommended to raise stop losses to protect profits, take most profits off the table, and keep a small position to bet on the trend.
Those who haven't gotten on board, don't chase the highs. Patiently wait for a second chance when the pullback stabilizes. $STRK $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The social security system should primarily answer the question of who should pay, not how to find people.
The US stock market has fallen; you can choose not to buy. But if social security contributions become expensive, you may not be able to avoid paying. The real tension in this debate is not about the rate of return, but about the right to choose.
The original post mentioned that the S&P 500 once dropped 7% this year and then rebounded to a 15% gain. This data needs verification, but even if true, it does not imply that "sticking to investment guarantees profits": the stock market carries market risk, while social security covers risks like retirement and medical care; these are not the same products.
Saying "they cannot be directly compared" does not mean social security contributions do not need to account for costs and returns. Ordinary people have real money deducted from their monthly income; what they lose is immediate consumption, savings, and emergency capacity. The protection they receive in return should certainly be clear and visible.
If "using big data to find people" is meant to strengthen collection, then the first questions to answer should be: can the payment burden be reduced? Can the treatment rules for different groups be made fairer?
Don’t just use technology to precisely locate payers, while those who pay can never clearly see their own accounts. The stronger the enforcement of mandatory payments, the more transparent the public ledger must be.#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
The leader has something to say
The core of the controversy over OpenAI's revenue statistics is the difference between 50 billion and 70 billion, AI stocks have pulled back, and the market questions the return on burning money. No repetition.
Directly talking about the market. The long position on Bitcoin is still at 83000, the short position is also still at 86500, hedging on both sides with light positions. No one-sided bets before CPI is released. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000. Short stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Whichever direction reaches the target first, reduce that side first. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC
ETF funds are still flowing out, 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.7%, oil prices high, macro pressure not relieved. AI narrative loosening, risk appetite under pressure. Short-term view is consolidation, mid-term waiting for direction.
Do not chase highs or sell lows, set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, positions must have stop losses set, good luck.$OKB
The net change in OKB is very small, but is the trading path really just as mild?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 123—126.38 USDT, change +0.15%, trading volume about 8.22 million USDT.
The high-low range of the window is obviously much larger than the net increase, indicating that the starting point's gains mask the interim fluctuations. Platform narratives also cannot protect every segment of the path; token support is constrained by supply, staking, and new buyers.
If 126.38 repeatedly fails to be reclaimed and the lows continue to move down, reduce recovery expectations; if supply pressure is absorbed and the pullback no longer falls to 123, then observe whether staking evidence supports sustained demand. 10月12日，比特币从80427美元（7日新低）反弹至83760美元，24小时涨约0.8%，但周线仍跌约3.3%。 24小时全网清算约1.62亿美元，其中空头爆仓1.13亿美元、占69.5%。这波反弹的主要推力，是低位做空者被迫买入平仓。 本周早些时候挑战87000美元的动能主要来自期货部位，而非现货需求。主要交易所比特币现货成交量较2024年末高点下降超75%，已回落至2023年熊市末期水平。 历史也提供了反面教材：9月21-22日比特币从82000美元区间垂直拉升站上87000美元，24小时涨超7%，清算超7.5亿美元仓位、其中6.483亿是空单——结果没能站稳，又跌回82000美元附近。 83000美元附近既是ETF投资者的平均成本区，也是此前技术形态中"更高高点"对应的关键门槛，过去几周已被反复测试。 这就构成了当前的尴尬处境：空头回补把价格往上推，ETF资金却在价格接近成本线时往外撤。叠加10年期美债收益率触及24年高位，生息资产吸引力大增，非生息的比特币相对价值被进一步压制。 市场认为10月会跌到80000美元或以下的概率为67%，跌到75000美元的概率为24%；同时认为#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点
Full-year guidance has 30% pinned on the last quarter.
▪️ Released on 10/14 at 21:00, 18 analysts expect revenue of €11.7264 billion, +56.02%
▪️ Net profit expected at €4.15 billion, +95.30%
▪️ First three quarters: Q1 €8.767 billion, Q2 €9.3265 billion, Q3 expected €11.7264 billion, totaling €29.82 billion
▪️ Full-year guidance raised from €36–40 billion to €43–45 billion
▪️ Difference: Q4 needs to deliver €13.18–15.18 billion, which is 1.12–1.29 times the Q3 expectation
▪️ Closing price on 10/9 was $1,780.34, 52-week range $941.57–$1,997.37
The disagreement is not whether Q3 beats expectations, but that 30% of the full-year guidance depends on the last quarter.
About 70% of the first three quarters are realized, with the remaining 30% pinned on Q4. Visibility for Q4 comes from orders rather than shipments in the quarter — revenue is from old orders delivered today, while bookings represent next year's production schedule.
The direction is to wait and see — bookings need to be flat and Q4 guidance not below €14.1 billion to be considered; any downward revision is invalid.$BTC held its rebound amid ETF capital outflows, which is more worth watching than how much it has risen.
💰 Money is withdrawing, but the price hasn't collapsed; let's watch 82,000 together.
Last week, spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $679 million, the largest weekly outflow since late June. On the 7th and 8th alone, $485 million and $244 million were withdrawn respectively; on the 7th, BlackRock IBIT saw an outflow of $208 million, and on the 8th, Fidelity FBTC had an outflow of $197 million.
The price didn't collapse on the other side: as of the afternoon of the 12th, it was about $83,874, with the Sunday high at $84,145. Nine of the top ten coins by market cap are rising.
Money is withdrawing, but the price hasn't collapsed.
So whether this rebound counts depends on whether it can hold 82,000 dollars: if it loses this line, the ETF outflow side will dominate.
$ETH $STRK
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 I'm a tech novice, yet I got excited for 0.05 seconds all afternoon
The market hasn't been very lively these past two days, but I'm quite pumped.
On October 9th, Solana's upgrade called SIMD-0525 was implemented, reducing the block production target time from 250 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds, allowing 5 blocks per second—double the previous amount. Even the validation cycle was shortened from two days to one. Some tests showed an average of 222 milliseconds, not fully maxed out yet, but very close.
What does 0.05 seconds mean? When I order lunch and pay, the page transition is slower than that. For people like me who only know how to transfer funds, it means the loading spinner after confirming is shorter.
Honestly, I don't understand any of the technical specs. But I've been using a $SOL wallet for two years; transfers that used to require watching the screen now basically arrive instantly. It's like the road in front of my house—under construction every year, getting wider and wider.
I'll keep holding. The more upgrades, the less I want to move.Last time I said, middle-aged people don’t give up; they stand up from the ruins and took back the long position.
So what’s the result now?
$MAGIC long position entered at 0.1079, held all the way to 0.1218, steadily securing a 38% profit.
Liquidation isn’t scary; what’s scary is not having the courage to re-enter the market.
Many people ask me, it’s risen so much already, shouldn’t you sell?
I tell you, not only am I not selling, my core direction remains; long!
Why?
First, look at the trend.
From the big bearish candle at 0.14688 crashing down, it looks scary, but if you look closely, it only dropped to 0.11588 at the lowest, not even breaking the previous rising platform.
EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are all overhead, but the price has stabilized around 0.12, which is typical sideways consolidation after a sharp drop, not a crash.
It’s risen so much, doubled in 7 days, nearly tripled in 30 days; it’s normal for profit-taking to shake out some positions, and after that, it still has to go up.
Look at the contract long-short ratio data: the proportion of long accounts dropped to 43.04%, shorts rose to 56.96%, long-short ratio 0.76.
What does this mean? It means after this sharp drop, retail traders’ mindset has shifted; they all rushed to short!
Brothers, this is the most interesting human psychology.
When the market just starts rising, retail traders don’t dare to chase; after a big pullback, seeing a screen full of green candles, they start panic shorting.
But would the market manipulators be so kind? Absolutely not!
With retail all shorting, manipulators will most likely reverse with a rally, first liquidating a batch of shorts, then pushing higher.
So my strategy is simple: don’t chase shorts, don’t cut losses.
I keep holding the long position at 0.1079; as long as it doesn’t break my defense level, I will hold on to the end.
The more retail shorts, the more determined I am.
These short-sellers are the best fuel for the next rally.
Trading is a battle against human nature.
I failed in entrepreneurship and went into debt by millions, but what I gained is this market sentiment insight.
Now the long position profits are still running; I will keep holding, waiting for it to break 0.14 and make new highs.
$BTC
$ETH
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 【2026/10/12 East 8 Zone 15:51】Hello, Bitcoin! The whole world is making way for you and cheering for me! Here, I loudly proclaim that this week will continue to rise, the answer is revealed in advance, why not take a look?
1. Since my post on the 6th of this month until now, I have shifted from bearish at 86500 to bullish at 81500, and currently there are significant results. The overall trend can be described as masterful. Don't believe it? Then you can check the history; now, what you care about most is the future trend, please see below and listen to me;
2. There are two important variables this week: Monday 23:30, the old US Treasury auction. My view is a weak auction, US Treasury yields rise, meaning the US stock market will correct downward in the short term, and risk assets like Bitcoin will fall or move sideways as a technical correction; Wednesday 20:30, US Core CPI, the biggest variable for US Treasuries. My view is Treasury yields will fall, funds will flow into gold and interest-free assets like cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin will rise; conclusion: continue to go long near the 83500 level at the 2H cycle top-bottom conversion position today;
3. From a technical pattern perspective, it has been running above the weekly MA60 for three consecutive weeks, bulls are solid; last week's pullback completed the daily top-bottom conversion, laying a foundation for a healthy market.
Last week, whether long or short, we were all in a celebration; returning to this week, I firmly believe that we who look forward from the threshold will toast at the finish line of victory!!! Also, a bit of investment advice for everyone: don't rush to buy, don't be greedy when selling, don't delay stop-loss, and don't scatter your portfolio Tinder's parent company doubles AI budget, CFO starts checking Token bills individually
Bloomberg interviewed multiple company CFOs and found that U.S. companies are beginning to tighten AI expense management. Some companies set Token quotas for employees, track individual spending in real time, and prioritize using cheaper models for simple tasks.
Match Group, Tinder's parent company, allocated a $5 million AI budget at the beginning of the year, which doubled to $10 million by May. The company records each employee's spending in real time. To exceed the quota, one must first prove the value of the usage. Sysdig, a cybersecurity company, has its CFO check Token consumption daily.
Bloomberg statistics show that the term "Token" was mentioned 157 times in the latest quarter's S&P 500 earnings calls, nearly four times the amount from a year ago. An Ernst & Young survey shows that 82% of AI-investing executives worry about related costs, but only 64% say their companies monitor usage and set clear budgets. Ernst & Young also estimates that including subscriptions, infrastructure, and management fees, the total cost for enterprises deploying AI agents is about three times the Token bill.
However, cost pressures have not led companies to collectively reduce AI investment. In the Ernst & Young survey, 37% of relevant executives said their companies are considering expanding AI deployment, while only 15% are considering scaling back. Companies are strengthening cost control while continuing to increase AI investment…DOGE is around 0.0876, I just added a 2000 U position this morning, bought at 0.0872.
Got itchy hands. That's the problem, seeing it sideways here makes it feel cheap, but where is it really cheap? It's as weak as noodles.
It drags when it rises, but falls straight down in one step. Holding this coin for a long time makes you question life. But I'm the kind of person who can't cut losses, after adding I watched the chart for twenty minutes, thinking this money is going to lie there again.
But it actually stabilized and didn't crash down. Alright, I'll leave it like this for now, no more cutting losses. $DOGE 【2026/10/12 East 8 Zone 15:43】Hello, Bitcoin! The whole world is making way for you and cheering for me! Here, I loudly proclaim that the upward trend will continue this week, the answer is revealed in advance, why not take a look?
1. Since my post on the 6th of this month until now, I have shifted from bearish at 86500 to bullish at 81500, and then reversed to long again, which has already shown significant results. The overall trend can be described as masterful. Don't believe it? You can check the history; now, what you care most about is the future trend, please see below and listen to me;
2. There are two important variables this week: Monday 23:30, the old US Treasury auction. My view is that the auction is weak, US Treasury yields rise, meaning the US stock market will correct downward in the short term, and risk assets like Bitcoin will fall or move sideways as a technical correction; Wednesday 20:30, US Core CPI, the biggest variable for US Treasuries. My view is that Treasury yields will decline, funds will flow into gold and interest-free assets like cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin will rise; conclusion: continue to go long near 83500 at the 2H cycle top-bottom conversion position today;
3. From a technical pattern perspective, it has been running above the weekly MA60 for three consecutive weeks, the bulls are solid; last week's pullback completed the daily top-bottom conversion, laying a foundation for a healthy market.
Last week, whether long or short, we were all in a celebration; returning to this week, I firmly believe that we who look forward from the threshold will toast at the finish line of victory!!! Also, a bit of investment advice for everyone: don't rush to buy, don't be greedy when selling, don't drag stop losses, and don't scatter your portfolio $BTC Team unlocks $340 million, I admit I trembled a bit
To be honest, the moment I saw the unlock news, I trembled a bit. Hyperliquid Labs released the pledge on 3.75 million team tokens, worth about $340 million at market price. In other projects, this kind of event basically signals a dump.
That night, I tossed and turned, got up to make a bowl of noodles, and dug into the $HYPE follow-up: about $331 million of it was transferred directly off-market to institutional buyers, handed over in bulk, not dumped onto the market.
In plain terms, they handled it decently, trying not to let retail investors catch the bag. Of course, there's fear—no one's money comes from the wind. But the way they handled it shows the team cares about the market. Two days have passed, and I haven't sold a single token. Diamond hands don't mean no fear; it means being afraid but still holding on.Box breakout, understand four types of trends in one chart Uptrend continuation: rise followed by consolidation, then breakout upwards to continue rising
Downtrend continuation: fall followed by consolidation, then breakout downwards to continue falling
Top reversal: rise followed by consolidation, then breakout downwards indicating a peak
Bottom reversal: fall followed by consolidation, then breakout upwards indicating a bottom
The core is one sentence: watch the breakout direction, but pay more attention to the trend before the breakout Strategic positioning to seize the Southeast Asia BTCfi narrative high ground
Here is the big picture to understand:
The North American market is highly competitive, with ETH, BTC L2, and various BTCfi public chains all battling, leaving less and less room for growth.
Southeast Asia, however, is the next wave of Web3 growth markets, with a huge user base, abundant miner resources, and a very high acceptance of the BTC narrative.
CORE has chosen Bangkok, Thailand as its Southeast Asia hub, which has natural advantages:
✅ Thailand is the crossroads of ASEAN; centered in Bangkok, it can radiate to the entire Southeast Asia region: Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia
✅ Thailand's digital asset regulatory framework is relatively clear, the industry atmosphere is stable, making it the best bridgehead in Southeast Asia
✅ Southeast Asia has a large number of small and medium BTC miners, which perfectly matches CORE's core narrative: after the BTC halving, miners need a second source of income, which is CORE's most core story, spreading very efficiently in the Southeast Asian mining community.Watching the red and green intertwine, a piece of my heart has been hollowed out. While others celebrate the rise, I only feel deep exhaustion. Although today's long position made some profit, the pain in my heart hasn't lessened at all.
$NEAR (The Bloodthirsty Abyss)
Entry price 5.3, current price 5.868.
Isolated margin 10X, unrealized loss -284U, ROI -107.16%.
Seeing the -107% figure makes even breathing painful. I thought isolated margin could prevent extremes, but I still got shattered. This trade is like a poisonous sting, devouring all my efforts.
$ETH (The Bloody Redemption)
Entry price 2501.83, current price 2563.68.
Isolated margin 20X, unrealized profit 618.49U, ROI +49.44%.
Ethereum is holding it up. This is the only dignity today, barely filling the NEAR pit. But looking at it, I can't feel happy, only lingering fear.
$BTC (The Pale Haven)
Entry price 83640.11, current price 83943.69.
Isolated margin 20X, unrealized profit 30.37U, ROI +7.26%.
BTC protected the bottom line, but it can't protect my heart full of wounds.
This market is too tough. Made gains on the index, lost my mindset. Tonight is destined to be sleepless.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ CPI and PPI are about to be released, $BTC surges to 84,000! How long can this rally last?
The most critical thing in the crypto space next is not how much it has risen, but whether the macro data can support this rally.
Focus on two key things next:
First, the US CPI and PPI data. If inflation is higher than expected, concerns about rate hikes may intensify, and a stronger dollar will put pressure on BTC and ETH; if inflation cools down, market worries about tightening policies will ease, giving the crypto space a chance to continue upward.
Second, the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. Current progress is still to be confirmed. If the energy conflict eases and oil prices fall, it could help reduce inflationary pressure, but this does not directly equate to the Fed shifting to easing.
My view: Do not blindly chase the rally in the short term, nor rush to short.
For BTC, focus on whether it can effectively break through around $84,350; for ETH, watch if it can hold above the previous high of $2,578. Only a breakthrough and hold can offer a chance to continue climbing; if it rallies then falls back, beware of short-term profit-taking selling pressure.
Before the macro data release, managing position size is more important than guessing the direction. Don’t let a rally cloud your judgment, and don’t fully commit your chips before the data lands.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
$ETH Can Ethereum rally all the way before the interest rate hike meeting?
My answer is straightforward: it won't rally.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 2406 to 2564 gained over 150 points, but the 4-hour trading volume is even smaller than during the decline; the buying power simply can't keep up.
The area from 2560 to 2600 above is a previous dense short-selling zone and also where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. Every time it approaches, it's an opportunity for bears to add positions.
Looking at the capital side, BitMine has already announced it will stop increasing ETH holdings, and the number of validators exiting the queue has surged from 166,000 to 851,000, with a large amount of staked ETH unlocking in the next two weeks.
Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, so liquidity will only tighten further.
Therefore, this rebound looks more like handing chips to the bears.
I still hold the short position I entered at 2671, with a floating profit of 400%.
If it dares to break 2600, I will add to my position. The short-term support below is 2497; if broken, it will be 2400.
Rally before the rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ This time it's really on a whim; I'm preparing to put out 200,000 U and seriously do a round of trading.
I've been in the circle for almost 7 years now. Looking back, the first few years were just small plays with a few hundred U, purely for fun. Back then, I didn't have much capital or a trading system; it was more about the thrill. When I made money, I felt awesome; when I lost, I just treated it as tuition.
In the past two years, as my income gradually increased, I've started to have a different understanding of investing. Allocating properly in US stocks, and I no longer want to just be a spectator in the crypto world. I plan to take advantage of this bull market to seriously study the market, learn trading, and see if I really have the ability.
Honestly, crypto is something I've been involved with for so many years. I've seen bull markets and encountered opportunities, but I never had enough principal or a stable high income to support taking risks. I've watched the market go through cycles, with people making big money one after another, but I never truly seized any decent opportunity.
Now that I have some funds in hand, I also have the confidence to try and fail. I originally planned to start with small positions to get familiar with the market, gradually build my own trading system, and once I understand the market's temperament, consider increasing my position size.
Human nature is really easy to talk about.
Last night, even though I had floating profits, I didn't take profits in time. I kept thinking it could go up a bit more, but the market fluctuated back and forth, and the profits slowly eroded until I ended up trapped.
Old traders know a bit of everything, but when it comes to their own turn, they still make every mistake they should. When funds start liquidating positions, retail investors are still figuring out how to bottom-fish.
SanDisk fell again pre-market; my short at 1887.5 is up 170%. But what’s really worth your attention are these three things:
First, institutions are exiting. Artemis Investment Management cut 73.4% in Q3, a liquidation sell-off. Renaissance Technologies was even more drastic, reducing by 99.4%. This isn’t portfolio rebalancing, it’s a retreat.
Second, major banks are changing their tune. Citi lowered its target price from 2500 to 2100, and Wells Fargo cut from 1620 to 1400. They were raising targets a month before earnings, then flipped immediately after, showing even Wall Street doesn’t understand this rally.
Third, insiders are selling. The Chief Legal Officer sold 600 shares at $1734 on October 1, cashing out $1.04 million. The CEO sold twice earlier, cashing out over $100 million in total.
My short at 1887.5 targets 1500 first, then 1400 if broken. Institutions are withdrawing, major banks are revising down, insiders are selling—how do you expect me to run?
Don’t be the last one holding the bag.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ U.S. stock market closed, before CPI $BTC rebounded to $84,351, currently fluctuating around $84,200.
No new data on ETF funds yet, previous outflow pressure remains. Contract rates are close to zero, OI is declining, indicating the market is temporarily not significantly leveraging to chase gains.
Next, focus on two levels:
Holding above $84,000, likely to continue testing $85,000;
If it breaks down, watch the $83,500 support.
Before the CPI release, market direction remains unclear, controlling position size is more important than blindly chasing orders.
#CPIPPIHikeWatch #RussiaUkraineTruceWatch #TSMCOct15Earnings Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to the Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise the full-year revenue growth forecast and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of AI dividends.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's deal in Texas, or steadily focus on Arizona?
$TSM #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ First, record the position of $ENA, then discuss the viewpoint: current price 0.2363, about 6.73% away from the 1-hour support at 0.2204, about 4.70% away from the resistance at 0.2474.
The direction of $ENA looks smooth, but the trading volume is casting doubt on this trend. 1-hour is slightly strong, 4-hour is slightly strong, RSI values are 47 and 71 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for the upward trend — breaking through 0.2474; and only one condition to negate the upward trend — falling below 0.2204. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you must choose a verification point first, would you watch for resistance confirmation or support breakdown?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Big Brother Maji's latest position:
$50.15 million bet on ETH, unrealized profit of $376,900!
Currently, Maji only has one long ETH position left; BTC and other positions are no longer in the holdings list.
Position: about 20,000 ETH
Leverage: 25x full margin
Position value: $50,147,700
Opening average price: $2,545.82
Unrealized profit: $376,900
Margin: $2,005,900
Reference liquidation price: $2,508.97
This position has returned to profit; the account gained $971,600 in the past 24 hours. Next, it depends on whether ETH can continue to rise to help him build a thicker safety cushion.
What worries me is that in the past 7 days, there was still a loss of $10,190,500, with a cumulative account loss of $34,655,200. This one day's recovery still leaves a long way to fill the previous gap.
The position page also shows that funding fees have accumulated to $1,353,800. The longer you hold a high-leverage position, besides enduring price volatility, you also bear holding costs, and these fees are terrifying.
Based on this position data, ETH is only about 2.3% away from the reference liquidation price, leaving very little room for a pullback; the liquidation price will also change with the account status.
If ETH continues to rise, his profits will amplify quickly. If there is a sharp drop, unrealized profits could shrink rapidly.
Looking at his position, after choosing the right direction, the position must also withstand volatility. There is still a way to go between earning unrealized profits and taking the money out.$BTC stabilized first after a week of decline
After a week of selling, $BTC stands above $82,900.
The hardest hit wasn’t $BTC, but the altcoins.
How this number is calculated:
82,900 is the bottoming point, not the breakeven point.
The portion that dropped in the previous week hasn’t been recovered yet.
Who is placing orders here:
The Fear and Greed Index is 57, indicating neutrality.
Neutral doesn’t mean people are buying, just that no one is rushing to sell.
Altcoins have absorbed most of the decline, indicating the money hasn’t left, it just moved back into $BTC.
Once the US inflation data is released, the money that moved back will decide where to go next.
Bottoming and reversal are two different things.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC As I said before, as long as the $83,500 support holds, every pullback is a standard "top-to-bottom flip".
Just now, the dip to 83,670 was instantly swallowed by large buy orders, then it bounced back to touch $84,125.
In my logic, this kind of high-level rejection of deep dips is a buildup signal for a push to $84,500. Hold your spot positions tight and let the bears keep guessing the top!ASML, making money quietly
The Q3 earnings report will be released on October 14
#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点
Usually not as popular as Nvidia, but in the AI chip industry chain, its ability to make money is really strong
Currently, Q3 revenue is expected to be between 11 billion and 12 billion euros, with a gross margin of 55% to 57%
This profit margin is already quite competitive in manufacturing
This earnings result should still be very good
AI chip demand is very strong, and big manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung want to expand advanced process capacity, which cannot bypass ASML's EUV lithography machines
Another thing to pay attention to is how many new orders there are; buying equipment is one thing, but whether customers are willing to continue investing to expand production is also very important
As long as EUV orders remain strong, ASML still has great prospects in this AI capital expenditure cycleDon't just focus on the K-line! OKX funding rates have already diverged, with $SOL longs getting more and more crowded, while $ETH is being suppressed by shorts!
Here's the OKX 30-day funding rate for you guys:
$SOL: +0.7666%
$ZEC: +0.3355%
$BTC: +0.1208%
$ETH: -0.1319%
The most interesting part of this data set is the completely different funding structures of $SOL and $ETH.
$SOL current rate +0.0085%, 30-day cumulative +0.7666%, longs keep paying, indicating a more concentrated bullish sentiment on the contract. But don't mistake a high funding rate for a bullish signal; the more crowded the position, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal.
$ETH current rate -0.0015%, 7-day and 30-day rates are also consistently negative, showing that shorts are paying more prominently. If the price strengthens and shorts start to cover, the rebound could exceed expectations; however, a negative funding rate itself is not a buy signal.
$BTC and $ZEC funding rates are also positive but overall lower than $SOL.
My take: Watch out for $SOL longs getting crowded, and keep an eye on whether $ETH's price and funding rate diverge. Don't short just because the funding rate is high, and don't bottom-fish just because the funding rate is negative. What you really need to capture in trading is the misalignment between market expectations and price trends.It's been 19 days, and the number of people buying $BTC on Coinbase is still less than those selling.
This premium index basically shows whether buyers in the US are willing to pay a higher price.
A negative value means they are not only unwilling to pay more but are also pushing prices down.
-0.12%, the number isn't big, but it's been 19 consecutive days, which is quite noticeable.
My first reaction isn't that the price will drop, but that people over there simply haven't come back.
Occasionally, Asia can still hold the market up, but once the US stalls, the market loses a leg.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing in to buy the dip when they see a negative premium, thinking it's a discount.
Actually, it's not a discount; it's that no one is competing to buy.
I'm more inclined to wait and see, waiting for this number to turn positive first.
Otherwise, like me, an old retail investor, I'll just be out in the wind at the peak again.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC