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#软银集团加码OpenAI，财报聚焦投资回报
On October 1, SoftBank dropped the final $10 billion to complete its $30 billion follow-up investment plan in OpenAI, but on October 13, its stock price plunged 8.5% in Tokyo, down 38% from its all-time high.
Borrowing at a high 9.75% interest rate to invest in OpenAI, stock price has already dropped 38%
SoftBank is indeed ruthless this time. The last $10 billion arrived on October 1, fully fulfilling the $30 billion follow-up investment plan, with a total investment of $64.6 billion and about 13% ownership.
All the money is borrowed. On September 24, it issued bonds worth about $11.1 billion, maturing as late as 2034, with a coupon rate as high as 9.75%. Borrowing high-interest debt to invest in OpenAI, which has not yet gone public, this calculation is indeed risky.
On October 13, the stock price plummeted 8.5% to ¥5310, down 38% from the June 2 high of ¥8632. Without decent returns in the earnings season, the market will not hesitate to sell off. TSMC's profit soars 69%, is the AI boom now stable?
TSMC's net profit for Q3 increased by about 69% year-on-year, reaching NT$763.1 billion, with revenue around NT$1.494 trillion, both setting new records and exceeding market expectations. Judging by this report alone, AI chip demand is indeed still very strong.
But what I think is truly worth watching is not just the new highs, but the costs and expectations behind this high growth. Advanced processes, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and overseas factory construction all require heavy investment; TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for this year remains between $60 billion and $64 billion. The market now wants to know: can AI demand visibility extend to 2027? Can profit margins withstand the costs of capacity expansion?
This is also why a good earnings report does not necessarily mean the stock price must rise. The stock price trades on "whether the results exceed already very high expectations," not just on whether the numbers look good enough. If everyone bets on AI's continued explosion, even strong performance can still lead to profit-taking if future guidance does not get raised further.
High-performance computing already accounts for about 68% of revenue; the stronger AI gets, the more the market depends on this growth mainline. TSMC's real watershed moment may not be whether it can still grow, but how high the market has priced in growth expectations for the AI industry chain. Do you think the market is currently underestimating the sustainability of AI demand, or has it already priced in the good news for the next few years? #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $TSM After testing the resistance level near $87,000 twice, Bitcoin's price has started to show signs of a pullback.
Yesterday's 3D candlestick chart displayed a bearish hammer, indicating that Bitcoin has actually entered a correction phase after more than 3 months of rebound.
To determine whether Bitcoin will experience a pullback in the medium term, we need to wait until the end of this week to see how the weekly close turns out. $BTC #BlackRock Crypto Asset Scale Grows 63%
[Old Leek Observation] BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew 63% in a single quarter. Have institutional funds really returned?
BlackRock's digital asset management scale rose to about $79.6 billion in the third quarter, up $30.8 billion from $48.8 billion in the previous quarter. This increase alone is indeed impressive.
But what I care more about is where exactly this $30.8 billion came from.
According to related reports, about $22.9 billion came from the rise in crypto asset prices, and about $7.9 billion came from net capital inflows. In other words, the bulk of the scale increase is due to the book value appreciation from price rises, not because institutions suddenly poured in hundreds of billions.
However, the net inflow itself is still worth noting. It indicates that investors did increase their allocations that quarter, and institutional demand is not entirely propped up by the market.
For $BTC and $ETH, this data provides a direction for observation: if funds continue to flow in later, even if prices pull back, institutional buying could become a supporting force in the market; but if net inflows weaken quickly, the rise in management scale cannot be simply interpreted as a long-term bullish signal.
Don't just focus on BlackRock's asset scale hitting new highs; what really matters is how much new capital it can attract next quarter.
Scale growth reflects the past, but sustained net inflows better indicate what the funds intend to do next. $ZEC #阿斯麦Q3营收创新高，远期需求能否兑现？ $ASML
Revenue increased by 25% quarter-over-quarter, profit increased by 70%.
▪️ Q3 net sales of €11.662 billion, approximately +25% quarter-over-quarter, breaking €10 billion in a single quarter for the first time
▪️ Net profit of €4.96 billion, approximately +70% quarter-over-quarter; gross margin 57.5%
▪️ Net sales close to the high end of the previous forecast range, full-year outlook raised for the third consecutive quarter
▪️ Some customers have started order discussions for equipment in 2029–2030
▪️ Stock price down 2.49% on the day of the earnings release
The disagreement is not about whether this quarter exceeded expectations, but why revenue and profit grew at different rates.
The cost of a lithography machine mainly lies in R&D and capacity. The additional unit sold spreads the fixed costs already paid. Revenue +25%, profit +70%, this difference is operating leverage: the equipment manufacturer earns not from each unit sold, but from capacity utilization—the marginal cost of selling one more unit is very low.
The outlook is cautious—gross margin must hold above 58% and order visibility must continue to expand to be considered fulfilled; otherwise, leverage could amplify in the opposite direction.#Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? Title: Saudi Aramco Headquarters Attacked and Set on Fire, Yet Brent Crude Closes Down 0.9% — Why Is the Geopolitical Premium Not Working This Time?
The market is watching whether the conflict will further affect oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, as well as whether facility security and transportation risks can impact actual crude supply and international oil prices. Energy giant executives have begun withdrawing from related activities, marking a substantial escalation in security risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities.
The market uses the "Brent closing down" to tell investors: the pricing power of geopolitics belongs only to "actual supply cuts," not to "symbolic attacks." As long as oil fields and ports remain intact, it is difficult for oil prices to replay the "panic-driven surge" scenario.On October 14, 2026, rising oil prices, core CPI exceeding expectations, and escalating AI credit risk formed a "triple hit," triggering a market-wide sell-off.
The real driving force was the hot core CPI. Broad-based inflationary pressure shattered the illusion of "ignoring energy volatility," with the probability of a rate hike in October briefly surpassing 50%, and the December probability soaring to 95%. Short-term yields surged first, followed by an accelerated stock market decline that triggered bond buying flows; the 10-year yield retreated from its intraday high but still closed higher. The market began to price in expectations of two more rate hikes next year. Credit market cracks widened, with CRWV bonds falling to the $70 range, data center-related spreads widening exponentially, CCC-rated spreads breaking above 1000 basis points, and IG and HY spreads approaching previous highs again. The tech sector's credit performance lagged at the bottom.
Stock market trading activity noticeably increased. The NDX and RTY led declines of about 2%, marking the largest single-day drop since June; the Dow was relatively resilient, with the S&P in the middle. AI concept stocks underperformed the S&P 500 excluding AI by 840 basis points cumulatively this week. CoreWeave plunged 15% at midday, with DOCN, HUT, NBIS, and others also sharply down; ORCL fell 9%. The Gartner report stated that if AI capital expenditures continue at the current pace, by 2030, 80% of NeoClouds will struggle to operate independently, further intensifying concerns over revolving financing and credit contagion. The Mag7 collectively weakened, and the financial sector was dragged down by disappointing US bank earnings. The S&P has fallen below the 7750–7775 positive gamma support range.Rising CPI makes Fed rate cuts increasingly unlikely. Cutting rates too early could fuel spending and undo progress toward the 2% inflation target. Markets may hope for easier money, but the Fed cannot ignore persistent price pressures. Higher-for-longer rates could weigh on Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks as liquidity stays tight. Until inflation cools convincingly, holding rates steady looks more realistic than cutting. #CPI #Fed #Crypto
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus One glaring point in this round of decline: BTC dropped about 3%, while ETH fell more than 6%. Even more dramatic were the liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total market liquidation scale approached $1 billion. Just BTC and ETH futures accounted for about $483 million in forced liquidations, with ETH around $286 million and BTC about $197 million. Here's the question. BTC's market size is much larger than ETH's, so why did ETH get liquidated more severely this time? I think this time it’s not that ETH suddenly faced some standalone “major negative news.” It’s more like when the market enters a risk-off mode, ETH first exposes its most vulnerable side. BTC is increasingly becoming the “core asset” in Crypto. When the market is good, ETH has greater elasticity; but once the market starts to reduce risk, many funds’ first reaction is often: cut ETH first, and only then move on to BTC. These past two days are a typical example. The US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than expected, and core CPI was also on the hot side. After the data release, rate hike expectations quickly intensified, and the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets were repriced together. This is unfavorable for BTC and even tougher for assets like ETH with greater volatility. But what really makes me feel that ETH was “hit harder” this time is leverage. Currently, ETH futures open interest is about $30 billion, BTC about $52 billion. Yet in this round of liquidations, ETH liquidated $286 million, while BTC only $197 million. In other words:$BTC
On-chain spot demand increased by 69,000 coins, so why can't it withstand over $100 million in liquidations within an hour?
Data disclosed by CryptoQuant on October 14 shows that after two months of contraction, the total Bitcoin demand has recently rebounded by about 69,000 BTC, indicating that spot buying is indeed recovering. However, on the same day, CoinGlass statistics show that within just one hour after the US September CPI release, over $100 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with total liquidations exceeding $220 million in 24 hours. BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, SUI OKX spot is 0.9844.
The contradiction here is clear: spot buying accumulates slowly over weeks and months, while high-leverage contracts get trampled in minutes under macro shocks. Slow spot buying can't save fast leverage. I judge that until the existing long leverage in the contract market is completely cleared, the cyclical demand recovery of 69,000 coins alone is insufficient to immediately trigger a V-shaped reversal. In the coming week, BTC will continue to oscillate and trade between 79,500 and 82,500, and SUI, having fallen below 1, will be constrained below 1.05 in the short term. If the overall contract funding rate turns significantly negative and BTC volume surges back above 83,800, then the consolidation and bottoming judgment will be invalid.
$BTC
$SUI
#OnChainDataAndLiquidations#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
• Core beneficiary of the AI wave: Revenue and net profit hit record highs, mainly driven by strong global demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI chips. TSMC's absolute technological leadership in advanced processes (such as 3nm, 5nm) makes it an indispensable leader.
• Extremely strong profitability: Gross margin approaches 68%, demonstrating its high bargaining power with downstream customers (such as Apple, NVIDIA, etc.), and the yield and capacity utilization of advanced processes remain high.
• Market sentiment optimistic but stock price calm: Although the financial report data exploded, the chart shows that related targets (TSM, xTSM) only rose slightly by 0.08% and 0.04% respectively, reflecting that the market had already priced in the positive news before the earnings release. Going forward, attention should be paid to the future pace of capacity expansion and potential geopolitical risks.#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 $ANTHROPIC
Revenue increased 20 times year-over-year, but quarter-over-quarter dropped from 143% to 46%.
▪️ Q3 revenue $16.8 billion, quarter-over-quarter +46%, approximately 20 times year-over-year, and achieved quarterly profitability
▪️ Revenue path: Q1 $4.73 billion → Q2 $11.5 billion → Q3 $16.8 billion
▪️ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate Q2 +143% → Q3 +46%, down two-thirds over three quarters
▪️ $16.8 billion is at the lower end of the market expectation range of $16–18.5 billion
▪️ The company is seeking investor support for the IPO expected to launch in November
The disagreement is not about whether it is profitable, but which is closer to the current situation: "20 times" or "46%".
The 20 times year-over-year uses a very small base from last year, while the 46% quarter-over-quarter is its current speed. $16.8 billion is still at the lower end of the expected range—the market optimism has already gotten ahead of the numbers.
The direction is to wait and see — Q4 quarter-over-quarter must hold above 40% for the curve to hold; if it continues to decline, the valuation anchor needs to shift to the annualized column.#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
The South Korean stock market completely collapsed today.
The KOSPI fell nearly 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading. Samsung Electronics dropped over 8 points, SK Hynix fell more than 7 points, and the Nikkei 225 also dropped over 4%. Overnight in the US, the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been falling for six consecutive trading days. The entire global tech sector is taking a beating, each worse than the last.
Why such a sharp drop? The US September CPI exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of interest rate hikes. AI infrastructure financing costs are rising, tech stocks are already highly valued, and the storage industry faces intense competition. ASML's earnings report clearly showed strong equipment demand, but investors are not buying it; they are recalculating whether AI investments can actually pay off. TSMC's earnings report has become the next key verification to watch.
So what impact does this have on our crypto circle? I'll tell you two points.
First, global tech stocks are collectively under pressure, so risk appetite will definitely decline.
Second, it's still unclear whether this round of adjustment is a valuation correction triggered by high interest rates or if semiconductor profit expectations are starting to weaken. If it's the former, the market can recover after the drop. If it's the latter, the entire AI hardware narrative will need to be repriced.
My view is simple. In the current market, don't rush to bottom-fish tech stocks or Bitcoin. Wait for TSMC's earnings report to see if the real demand for AI hardware has collapsed before making a decision.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH Volume increase ≠ revenue growth, don't skip the second verification
Scaling up the business is like opening a floodgate, the water noise is loud, but accounts must be calculated separately.
$HYPE: When cutting fees to grab volume, don't just focus on transaction value. If the fee rate is cut to one-tenth of the original, volume must increase tenfold to break even; if not, it's exchanging revenue for hype. Later, look at effective fee rate, real revenue, and repurchase retention (￣▽￣)~*
$AAVE: Raising the ceiling just moves the limit, it doesn't mean borrowing demand will automatically fill it. Watch the utilization rate and whether new loans cluster in a few assets. Capacity is permission; revenue depends on actual lending 😉
$XRP: An increase in account numbers doesn't equal an equal amount of buy orders. Minimum reserves and designated reserves occupy funds; rules or deletions can change net occupation. It's better to look at net new accounts and net occupation changes, rather than directly translating account growth into buying demand 🤔
In short: scale is the entrance, quality is the exit. Transaction value, limits, and account numbers are just the first half; revenue, utilization, and net occupation are the second half (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins BTC has really been struggling these past two days. Yesterday, the US September CPI was released, showing a month-over-month increase of +0.6% and a year-over-year increase of +3.7%, both hotter than the market had originally hoped for. What's more troublesome is that the core CPI also rose by 0.3% month-over-month, indicating that the issue isn't just oil prices. After the data came out, concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates reignited, and BTC was pushed down from above $83,000 to around $80,000. Currently, BTC is hovering around $81,000, with today's low already touching about $80,400. Then tonight there's another hurdle. At 20:30 Beijing time, the US September PPI will be released. The BLS official schedule has confirmed the release tonight. The market currently expects the PPI to rise about +0.6% month-over-month, and the core PPI about +0.3%. In other words, the market has already prepared in advance for "producer prices to remain relatively hot." So the real point of interest tonight isn't whether the PPI is high or not. It's whether it is higher than the market expects. If it ends up significantly above expectations, for example, if energy and service prices continue to push upward, then the concerns brought by yesterday's CPI won't be a one-time thing. The market will start reconsidering one thing: Does the Federal Reserve still need to continue raising interest rates? For BTC, this is uncomfortable. As interest rate expectations rise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields usually strengthen again, making it easier for risk assets to be reduced further. After yesterday's CPI release, the market's expectation for another rate hike in October has already clearly heated up, though today it has cooled somewhat after more cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials.Whale showdown ⚔️
Big Bro Maji · Hard Hold Watchlist
$BTC: Average price 84,700, liquidation at 71,600, holding 390 coins, heartbeat follows the K-line 😬
$ETH: Entered at 2545.84, triggered stop at 2489.81, floating loss 238,000🔥
$HYPE: Liquidation at 57, holding 169,000 coins, floating loss 230,000📉
Biggest risk: Single-day funding fees burned $1.18 million, breaking the line may cause chain liquidations ⚠️
Boss Eleven · Cut Loss Risk Control
Iron rule: Single loss ≤ 2% of principal, exit immediately if wrong, never hold to liquidation ✂️
Main anchors: BTC drops below 78,000, ETH below 2385, unconditional retreat 🚪
In a volatile market: Draw "error recognition lines" for support and resistance first, do not change rules during trading 🧭
One relies on hard holding for reversal, the other relies on discipline to survive. In the market, stubbornness is a story, survival is the skill 💡#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Volume has increased, so I took the pulse of Dogecoin
First, some numbers: In the past 24 hours, $DOGE had a trading volume of about $1.444 billion, which is $621 million more than the previous day. The market is lively, but let's be clear: lively doesn't equal direction.
Traditional Chinese medicine pulse diagnosis talks about "pulse symptoms combined"; looking at the pulse alone can lead to misdiagnosis. Volume is like the pulse: volume is the heartbeat, price is the complexion, and they must be observed together.
A volume surge with a price drop means a fast pulse and poor complexion—trading volume expands but price softens all the way, sellers dominate. A volume surge with consolidation means a fast pulse and stable complexion—trading volume expands, price holds steady around 0.0790–0.0800, and the sold coins are being absorbed; this is called absorption or turnover. Although both involve volume surges, their fundamentals are different.
So don't just watch the total trading volume; focus on one level: 0.0790–0.0800. If it holds steady, this volume surge means blood renewal; if it doesn't hold, no matter how lively, it's distribution.
I've been fooled by volume surges before. Back in 2017, I mistook a volume surge for the start of the second half, but it turned out to be the sound of the closing bell. I still remember the cost of that lesson.
Now, I'm happy to see volume return. When there's volume, there are players at the table. As long as people don't leave this Dogecoin market, it won't go cold. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, both setting single-quarter historical highs. The 2nm advanced process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with the overall advanced process ratio reaching 79%. AI chip demand remains the core driver.
However, the stock price fell more than 2% after hours.
The core issue lies in the gross margin guidance.
Q3 gross margin guidance is between 65%-67%, lower than the actual 67.7% achieved in Q2. The market is concerned that capital expenditures are continuously being raised (with the Arizona plant in the US, Kumamoto plant in Japan, and Kaohsiung plant progressing simultaneously), and the massive depreciation will erode profit margins in the coming quarters.
Simply put: earning more, but spending more. 【Did Maji just crawl back from the gates of hell? 25x leverage, 320 $ETH, still daring to play】
Big brother Maji was just liquidated once today, and then turned around with a 25x leveraged long position of 320 ETH remaining. Entry price was $2355.52, liquidation price $2334.84, currently floating profit of $6500. This profit is nothing in his track record, with only about 0.88% price space left before liquidation.
In the past 4 months, he once turned $56,000 into $12.25 million, but after today's liquidation, the address was left with only $21,800 at one point. The leverage clearly compresses the distance between making money and going to zero.
Coincidentally, today the entire ETH network liquidated about $240 million in long positions, with the price dropping near $2350, and Maji's position was almost walking on the liquidation line.
Gambling dogs are not advisable; even someone like Maji with unlimited bullets can't hold on, so retail investors need to be more careful and protect their principal to have a chance.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's latest financial report shows profits soaring nearly 70%, so why did the stock price fall? $TSM
Talking about TSMC's just-released Q3 financial report, revenue exceeded NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged to NT$763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 69%, with all indicators surpassing market expectations. The share of 2nm and advanced processes is extremely high, and demand for AI chips remains strong.
Interestingly, the market dipped slightly after the positive earnings announcement. The market isn't worried about its profitability but is questioning its highly ambitious capital expenditures.
This year, TSMC's capital expenditure has been raised directly to $64 billion, and in the coming years, it could even reach astronomical figures around $80 billion.
With nearly 20 factories being built worldwide simultaneously, this unprecedented expansion speed means very high depreciation costs and management dilution from overseas plant construction. Moreover, the gross margin guidance has been slightly adjusted, causing the market to be cautious about overcapacity and diminishing marginal returns on AI investments.
TSMC's short-term logic is monopoly premium—no one can replace it—but the mid-to-long-term logic will shift from the AI dividend period to the capacity digestion period. Once major tech giants move their AI investments into refined cost accounting, the huge capital expenditures will become a double-edged sword.
Earnings are at their peak, but the alarm bells for a sprint are also ringing.
DYOR Last night the CPI was released, and the market reacted very strongly. The US stock market dropped by 1.8 points, then the night session fell another 1 point, and during the day the Korean stock market crashed again, with Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all plunging. Even crypto took a big hit, except gold which might still be okay, since gold is known as a safe-haven asset and many countries are actively buying it. So in the short term, gold is relatively hard to fall.
Last night's CPI release was very poor; the expected value was 3.6, but the actual release was 3.7, higher than expected. So the market thinks the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in October. Currently, the market's predicted probability of a Fed rate hike has increased significantly. When we looked yesterday, the probability of a 25 basis point hike was only 19%, but today it has risen to 27%. It is expected to continue rising, but as long as before the FOMC meeting at the end of the month this data does not rise above 50%, and crude oil prices can fall back somewhat, the probability of a rate hike is not high.
However, a rate hike is like a double-edged sword; as long as there is an expectation, it will keep pressuring the market. It might be better to just raise rates in October. If rates are raised and inflation can be controlled by November, that would be good. Also, after the midterm elections in November, Trump will definitely intervene in the Iran issue, since oil prices have been high for half a year. They can't stay this high forever!
But if rates are raised in October and inflation is not controlled, then rate hikes will likely continue, and the market will be doomed, leading to a worse outcome.
So currently, the US... The market is no longer betting on when the rate cut will happen, but on how many more hikes there will be.
Once the CPI came out, the bets flipped immediately. The probability of no change in October was nearly 80%, but now the bets on rate hikes have piled up, with three more expected by the end of 2027.
But this time, the reason for the rate hikes is oil.
Rate hikes target demand, but they can't control oil prices. Saudi Arabia won't pump out two more barrels just because the Fed raised rates once.
So this medicine can't cure this illness; it can only suppress the economy first. Prices that need to rise will still rise, and life will still be tight.
For us here, the meaning is straightforward: money will be withdrawn, and risk assets won't get fresh liquidity. Most rebounds in this environment are just for people to sell, don't mistake them for a market upturn.
Bitcoin is at 81,000, keep an eye on the 80,000 line; if it breaks, it will continue down. I'm not buying more.
With the market this bad, having to watch it every day, what's the point?
#TradersBetOnFedHikingThreeMoreTimes #SeptemberCPIIncomingHowWillOilAndUSTreasuriesMove $BTC 【Ondo's locked value has reached $4 billion, but $ONDO has yet to take off 】
Ondo Finance's total locked value has surpassed $4 billion, with tokenized stocks and ETFs accounting for over $1.3 billion, and the cumulative number of holders exceeding 1 million. The story of Wall Street going on-chain is indeed growing bigger with Ondo.
But ONDO hasn't taken off yet. TVL represents the platform's asset scale, not $4 billion directly buying ONDO. The US Treasury products provide yield, stocks and ETFs expand trading scenarios, and Ondo is still expanding into private markets. The business footprint is indeed growing.
ONDO has actually been falling these past two days, around $0.47 on October 12, then continuously dropping to about $0.43 on October 15. Business is hitting new highs, but the token is falling; clearly, the funds are not trading according to the same script.
I am optimistic about the long-term potential of the RWA sector, but right now, Ondo's growth cannot be directly equated with ONDO's value growth. ONDO is currently mainly a governance token; more platform assets do not mean token holders can directly share more income.
What to watch going forward is whether new assets can continue to grow, whether trading activity can be realized, and whether the token has a clearer value capture mechanism. The story has grown big, but whether the token can get a piece of this pie remains to be seen.Bitcoin fell below 82,000, and inflation data slammed stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto across the board. Mastercard spent $1.8 billion to acquire BVNK, with the stablecoin payment sector continuing to be swallowed by traditional giants. Chainlink feeds prices to Stellar, and the RWA narrative is still unfolding. Richard Heart was arrested in Turkey; it's an old scheme, stay away.
Just closed the security booth window; the wind outside is a bit strong.
TRUTH current price is 0.0172380. The candlestick broke below the short-term moving average, MACD shows a death cross, volume at the top is stagnant, and the trend has weakened. Looking at the liquidation chart, there are many short stop losses piled above 0.02, while the long support below is thin. Short-term weak pullback, with a liquidation attraction above that is a bull trap. If the rebound fails to break 0.018, it will continue to probe lower, testing the 0.015 range.
In terms of operation, the strategy is short. Entry zone is 0.0175 to 0.018, first take-profit target at 0.0155, second target at 0.015. Stop loss is set above 0.0188; if broken, accept the loss. Avoid blindly chasing longs; buying at this position just provides liquidity to the market makers.
Have a sip of tea and keep watching the market.
$TRUTH
#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利
@OKX星球 Lessons from the South Korean stock market are replaying in the crypto market
South Korea's KOSPI fell from a high of 9114 in June to 6035, a drop of over 30%. It went from being the best-performing index globally in the first half of the year to the worst-performing index globally in the second half, all within just over three months.
The mechanism behind this crash is worth every crypto trader's close attention. Foreign investors withdrew $131 billion from the South Korean stock market this year, and foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics dropped from 52.4% at the start of the year to 46.38%, the lowest since 2008. When foreign investors concentrate their withdrawal on two stocks that together account for more than half the index's weight, the index has no second support point.
The crypto market has similar structural risks. BTC accounts for 58% of the entire crypto market capitalization, and ETF net assets account for 6.38% of BTC's total market cap. When institutional funds start withdrawing from ETFs, there is no second "buyer group" to catch the fall. Retail investors will only sell in panic, not buy.
South Korean retail investors net sold 14.197 trillion KRW in Q3, wiping out all the buying in July and August. Retail investors fled when they were most needed to hold. The retail structure in the crypto market is even more fragile due to higher leverage, 24-hour trading, and no price limit protections.
The only thing I learned from this crash in the South Korean stock market is: when liquidity recedes, don't believe any "this time is different" claims. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 1. Inflation: Sticky and Confirmed Last night, CPI broadly exceeded expectations: overall 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Tonight's PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, checking if production costs have been passed on. Expectations: year-on-year 5.3% (previous 5.4%), core year-on-year 4.4% (previous 4.6%). Focus on core year-on-year; 4.4% is the market's bet on cooling, exceeding it would be a double confirmation. 2. US Dollar and Treasury Bonds: 10-year at 5.3% DXY surged to 102.86, a one-and-a-half-year high; 10-year US Treasury at 5.28%, 2-year at 4.87%. The implication is straightforward: global liquidity continues to tighten, and the pricing anchors for all risk assets are rising. BTC can't rally, and this is the root cause. 3. Oil and Geopolitics: Inflation's upside option Brent at $105, WTI at $94.6. In September, US-Iran military tensions escalated, Brent crude rose 14% in a single month breaking $100, and the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume remains 30% below pre-conflict levels. Oil prices are the direct driver behind this round of CPI surprises, and energy components in PPI will also be pushed higher. As long as geopolitical tensions persist, inflation has an additional upside option. 4. Global Markets: Broad declines, only gold benefited from safe-haven demand Nasdaq -1.88%, Nikkei -4.38%, South Korea's KOSPI down 7 consecutive days totaling -20%. Gold fell for 3 consecutive days after CPI to 4083, and the dollar weakened this morning #TSMCQ3RecordProfit Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.$BTC 81,000 is not support; it’s the ETF cost line holding firm. On October 15, BTC dipped to a low of 80,985, marking the third time it tested this area. The average ETF holding cost is about 81,500, just right underfoot. Once it closes below this, ordinary ETF holders collectively turn to losses, accelerating redemption pressure.$BTC
Bitcoin ETF net outflow is $261 million, with Fidelity FBTC alone running off $153 million, and BlackRock IBIT outflowing $111 million. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $452 million, with long positions liquidated at $394 million and shorts only $58 million. The bulls are getting hit, the bears are collecting money.
The rebound rejection at 82,500-83,000 is the entry point, with stop loss set above 83,500. The target is first 80,200, and if broken, then 78,000.
ETF funds are not buying; the rebound is an opportunity to short. $BTC
With CPI released, continuous ETF outflows, and long liquidations far exceeding shorts—the data has clearly set the direction. But especially at times like this, control your impulses; don’t chase shorts at support levels. Wait for the rebound to be rejected at resistance before entering. The biggest taboo in shorting is rushing; wait for the market to give you signals, which is more reliable than finding your own signals. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Currently, this wave has dropped from 116 to 100, a retracement of 13.9%, which belongs to the shallow category. How long it takes historically to recover from this level can be answered by reviewing data from the past 1000 days.
The method is simple: isolate each drop from a stage high, categorize by the percentage drop, then count how many days it took to return to the previous high. Returning to the previous high is calculated by closing price, not just touching intraday.
For the 10% to 20% drop category, it occurred 53 times in the past two years, with 48 times returning to the previous high. The median time was 8 days, the fastest was 1 day, and the slowest took 219 days.
For the 20% to 35% drop category, it occurred 24 times, with a median return time of 46 days. Moreover, 5 times have not returned yet, with the longest wait exceeding 300 days.
A deeper category, 35% to 50% drops, happened only 5 times, with a median return time of 86 days, the fastest 37 days, and the slowest 202 days.
There is also a longer reference. $SOL's historical highest close was in January 2025 at $261.97, and it has not returned in 21 months, currently priced 60% lower.
Therefore, the deeper the retracement, the longer the wait to recover, and some in the deeper two categories never recover. This current 13.9% drop falls into the most common category, with a reference median of 8 days, and the slow ones take a few months. Out of 53 times, 48 have recovered.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
I actually don't care much about Netflix's revenue in this earnings report.
Subscription plus ads achieving about 12% growth is basically within expectations.
What I'm watching is the profit margin guidance of 33.2%, compared to 28.2% in the same period last year.
This company has shifted from just acquiring users to making more money from each user.
With expectations set so high, even a good earnings report might cause the stock to drop.
If they say anything vague about the ad segment, people will sell after hours.
Tech stock sentiment has been so fragile lately; don't be too confident on the night of the 20th #PalantirQ3Valuation
Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.6.56 billion inflow in one day, but 36.23 billion outflow in one week
$BTC net inflow of 656 million USD in 24 hours.
In the same week, net outflow of 3.623 billion USD.
How this number is calculated:
The money in one day is short-term inflow, the money in one week is medium-term withdrawal.
The two directions do not conflict, just different time scales.
Who is placing orders here:
$ETH inflow of 700 million in one day, outflow of 3.559 billion in one week.
$SOL inflow of 125 million in one day, outflow of 2.041 billion in 30 days.
$ZEC inflow of 146 million in one day, the strongest support.
Single-day inflow indicates someone is probing.
Weekly outflow still ongoing, indicating big money hasn't returned.
Probing and full-scale attack are two different things.
Only after three consecutive days of net inflow can it be considered that funds have truly returned.
#渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展
#$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix has started to consolidate while SanDisk is plummeting!!!
Institutions have begun to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard.
Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed its overtake in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a temporary loss of market confidence in SanDisk.
Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions have started to support the stock, and retail investors and whales are beginning to look forward to additional shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release.
SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #海力士回应美国扩产传闻 Core DAO Business Truth on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The $CORE token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. What is listed is a BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) issued by a third-party issuer Valour (under DeFi Technologies), with the underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify this as "Core listed on the London Stock Exchange," which is a promotional statement and not a listing of the CORE coin for trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: An ETP (Exchange Traded Product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset. Bitcoin enters the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business logic - Valour holds real BTC, stored in institutional cold storage; - BTC is delegated to Core network validators for staking, generating staking rewards (nominal annualized about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value, so investors buying this London Stock Exchange security indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Open to professional investors in 2025-09; FCA license obtained in 2026-01, opening trading to UK retail investors. 3. Core's role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-PIf the dips before the CPI were all about onboarding the same group of people, then this time BTC returning to the support level is not a coincidence but a prearranged script. Have you noticed that in the last four CPI releases, the price has chosen to continue upward? Watching the rhythm around these data points, it feels like the market is actually trading on a "bad news fully priced in" inertia. Each time before the data, it sweeps a round of lows to wash out the unsteady positions, then after the release, it moves forward lightly. This time BTC once again stands firm near support; emotionally, everyone is still shouting 75k, but the more unified the shout, the more I feel the price might not obediently go there to pick people up. The bullish logic is clear: if the historical rhythm repeats, CPI is a ready catalyst, and if support holds, the target can look toward previous highs or even new highs. ETH and SOL will also warm up with risk appetite, especially SOL, a high-beta asset that often runs faster once BTC confirms direction. But the risks must be clarified: if support is clearly broken, this judgment is invalid. Also, the market may have already priced in the "post-CPI rise" expectation in advance; if the data just meets expectations, it can easily turn into a case of good news fully priced in. Another easily overlooked point is that capital preference now leans more toward BTC dominance; altcoins need volume to follow the rally, otherwise it's just a false fire. My own rhythm is to first see if support can hold, then watch how the first 4-hour candle after the data release closes. If it closes up on volume, it means the buying is real; if it spikes then falls back on low volume, then be cautious of another fakeout Is $SOXL at a low point now?
The price looks very low, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom.
To judge whether it's the bottom, you can't just look at how much the price has dropped; you need to look at two core signals:
✅ U.S. Treasury yields stop rising and start to fall
✅ Storage, Nvidia, and other heavy holdings stabilize, with earnings reports and guidance not continuing to disappoint
As long as U.S. Treasury yields remain high, even if this is a temporary low point, it is most likely just a consolidation phase, and it's hard to directly start a big rally.
Even if there is a rebound, treat it primarily as a corrective bounce, not as the start of a new bull market.
This crash is caused by macro interest rates killing valuations + negative news in the storage sector, compounded by 3x leverage amplifying losses. The price looks cheap, but bottom-fishing leveraged ETFs carries huge risks. The bottom is made by the market's movement, not just by falling prices. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC
I don't dare to buy in; 1120 was directly smashed through, with a low down to 1070
Brothers, I've been watching ZEC's trend for a long time, and I have just one sentence: don't reach out. Previously, 1120 held for a long time, and many thought it was the bottom. But this wave smashed right through it, hitting a low of 1070. Look at those big bearish candles with huge volume, which means it's not a slow decline but bulls can't hold on, getting liquidated one after another, a chain reaction. Whoever is slow to exit gets buried. This kind of stampede-like drop means the bottom is not something you can just guess.
I checked around, and $BTC and $ETH are also falling simultaneously, indicating it's not just ZEC's problem but the whole market releasing risk. At times like this, trying to bottom-fish a single coin is going against the market.
Technically, without going into jargon, 1120 was a psychological bottom before, but now that it's broken, it becomes resistance above. If it rebounds back near 1120, most likely some people will sell because too many are trapped there.
My thinking is simple: I absolutely won't bottom-fish near 1112 now. I'll wait for a rebound near 1120; if it can't break through and starts to turn down, that's where I'll short. Below, first watch 1060, and if that breaks, then look at the 1000 round number.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Hayes was still calling for a market rescue in the morning, and by the afternoon he was sweeping OTC for altcoins.
Talking macro with his mouth, but buying old DeFi faces like AERO and PENDLE with his hands.
I can only take celebrity purchases as a reference; his cost and position size are in a different league from retail investors.
He can afford to wait three months, but many people can't wait even three days.
$PENDLE #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure $SAMSUNG
Circuit breakers have already triggered 10 times this year.
▪️ On 10/15 at 11:24 AM, KOSPI dropped over 8%, triggering a circuit breaker and pausing trading for 20 minutes, marking the 10th time this year
▪️ Intraday reported 5,529.61 points, down 7.97%; KOSDAQ 150 down 8.83%
▪️ Samsung Electronics −10%, SK Hynix −11%, Hanmi Semiconductor −10%
▪️ Nikkei 225 down 5%; Kioxia −12%, Advantest −14%
▪️ The trigger was attributed to the US CPI overnight exceeding expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in October rising to 43.7%
The disagreement is not about how much it fell this time, but that a tool meant to prevent panic has become routine.
Circuit breakers block speed, not the magnitude of the drop — the same drop completed in a day does not trigger it, but if done in half an hour, it does. The 10th time this year indicates an increase in volatility frequency. The decline is not limited to Korean stocks: semiconductors in Japan and the US also fell simultaneously during the same period.
The direction is to wait and see — stability is only confirmed when the interval between circuit breakers lengthens and foreign net selling turns positive; if frequency continues to increase, the volatility center is still rising.#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High The AI industry chain's performance is still growing, but the market is starting to pay more attention: How long can this round of AI investment really last? On October 15, TSMC announced its Q3 2026 results, with net profit reaching NT$763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 69%, exceeding the market expectation of NT$746.3 billion, setting a new quarterly profit record. This is also TSMC's sixth consecutive quarter of record-breaking profits. Q3 revenue was about NT$1.494 trillion, up approximately 51% year-on-year. This financial report sends three important signals. First, AI computing power demand remains strong. Major customers like Nvidia and Apple continue to require advanced process chips; AI servers and data center construction remain key drivers of TSMC's performance growth. TSMC's results indicate that AI demand has not visibly cooled on the performance side. Second, advanced process technology remains the core competitive advantage. TSMC benefits not only from chip demand growth but also from the technical barriers of advanced processes and advanced packaging. However, as the 2nm process gradually scales up, gross margins may be affected by initial costs, and it will be necessary to observe whether the new process can successfully translate into profits. Third, good performance does not necessarily mean the stock price will rise. The current market concerns are not only about whether AI demand exists but also whether companies can continue to bear high capital expenditures and whether future revenues can cover the increasing investments. TSMC remains cautious about the outlook for 2027, while the US AI stock sector is also affected by rising interest rates and financing pressures. There is another big move at 8:30 tonight, PPI
After CPI exploded to 3.7% last night, today's market hasn't caught a breath. BTC at 80168, just one step away from 80,000.
ETH at 2315, down nearly 10% in three days.
ZEC is even worse, at 1080, dropping from 1695 to 1080 within a week, nearly a 40% decline.
No need to look at liquidations either, this week's 1.19 billion list just got digested, and waves keep coming these past two days. Bulls just got buried, and those trying to bottom-fish got buried again. This market now specifically targets the fast movers.
Why is tonight's PPI so critical?
CPI and PPI are conjoined twins, one upstream and one downstream. CPI beating expectations means costs have already passed from factories to shelves.
If PPI also beats expectations, it means the next round of CPI will still rise, confirming the 50 basis point rate hike priced in for December.
My view remains the same: the first spike in a downtrend is not the bottom, and the second one may not be either. Today's spike at 80168 is the second probe of 80,000, a bit more solid than the first, but as long as PPI hasn't landed, any spike is temporary.
Once the data lands, watch if BTC 80000 holds. If it holds, this week's dip is over. If not, 78000 is next.
$ZEC
What do you all think, will tonight's PPI cause another explosion or give a breather?
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC $ETH From the perspective of risk premium, distinguish between low-risk mainstream markets and high-Beta sector markets.
When market risk appetite is high, capital is willing to speculate on high-volatility sectors; when risk appetite contracts, capital flows back to core assets like BTC and ETH for hedging.
BTC reflects capital's hedging willingness, while ETH measures market risk premium. Layered screening: when risk premium rises, high-Beta assets experience much larger drawdowns than mainstream ones.
Tracked assets list:
🟠BTC｜Benchmark for hedging assets
🔵ETH｜Risk premium gauge
🟣SOL｜High-Beta public chain
🟢AVAX｜Ecosystem public chain
🔷INJ｜On-chain finance
Key focus on the relative strength of BTC and ETH:
When risk appetite rises, ETH/BTC rises, and high-Beta assets like $SOL and AVAX show greater elasticity; when risk appetite falls, capital flows back to BTC, and high-Beta sectors experience significant drawdowns. Bitcoin returning to 86000 is not a matter of time, but a matter of catalyst. The current price is about $80985, and 86000 is not a price issue, but a confidence issue.
Why is 86000 so firm? This is the average cost zone for investors who entered in the past two years. The cost for holders of 6-12 months is about 88000, and for holders of 1-2 years it is close to 100000. Every rebound near 86000 triggers selling to break even. Glassnode clearly lists 88000 and 100000 as major resistance levels above.
What conditions could push it back? Not technical patterns, but a macro shift. Currently, CPI is above expectations, and market concerns about a Fed rate hike in October have dropped from 50% to about 20% probability. Hawkish expectations are suppressing all risk assets. KCM Trade analysts point out that weaker-than-expected inflation data is the only way to reduce the likelihood of further tightening, which is the real short-term catalyst for an upward move.
On-chain data offers hope. Whale holdings have risen to 3.03 million BTC, with a 30-day growth rate the fastest since February this year. ETFs are selling, but large holders are buying. This signals a shift of chips from weak hands to strong hands, but until this turnover is complete, the price will struggle to effectively break through 86000.
The next observation point is very specific: this week's CPI and PPI data, as well as the FOMC meeting minutes. If inflation data unexpectedly weakens, a test of 86000 may come soon; if it remains strong, the 400-day moving average support at 80000 will face a real stress test.
$BTC This morning's sharp downward spike brutally wiped out a large number of high-leverage long positions.
The most notable figure during this shakeout was the well-known big brother Maji. Besides him, on-chain monitoring detected a whale holding long ETH positions worth 352 million. The current floating loss is nearly 19 million, just 60 dollars away from the liquidation line. If the price dips just a bit further, a liquidation event will be triggered.
One thrilling liquidation after another constantly reminds everyone: leverage can create miracles, but it can also wipe everything out in an instant. However, setting emotions aside, let's rationally view this long lower shadow.
Although this spike is highly damaging, it may not be purely bad.
From the chart perspective, this is already the third time BTC has retested the support zone around 81,000. A signal worth noting: with each drop, the scale of panic selling is gradually decreasing.
This indicates that the brainless panic exit chips are fewer; those leaving now are mostly hesitant holders who can't withstand the volatility. The market is using intense fluctuations to complete a painful process of washing out weak hands.
Looking at the macro level: US inflation data exceeded expectations, continuing to suppress global risk asset valuations. The overall pressure in the environment has not been fully relieved.
However, the crypto market repeatedly touching bottom support and testing the baseline, from a technical logic perspective, is a typical feature of bottom consolidation at low levels.Don't just remember that Big Brother Maji is a whale; in these ten days, he has collapsed to nothing but a sigh. The ledger reveals three facts: 1. Heavy losses — a total loss of $36,572,500, with an additional $4,435,600 lost in the past 7 days, leaving total account assets at only $279,800. 2. Heavy positions — 2100 ETH fully leveraged long positions, valued at $5,074,400, 25x full leverage (account shows 36.17x), opening average price 2515.81, current unrealized loss $208,900, cumulative funding fees burned $1,362,700. 3. No way out — liquidation price 2397.51, available margin 0. What does stacking these three facts mean? Less than $280,000 left in the pocket, holding $5,074,400 in positions, margin wiped out, only a needle's distance from the liquidation price, no bullets left to top up. In ten days, the whale has turned into a small fish. Leverage is like this: as great as it feels when it feeds you, it is just as ruthless when it collects. So don't focus on chasing the whale to bottom fish; those who survive long in contracts are always the ones who control their positions.The storage trio is also stunned by the drop: Micron fell 7.4%, SanDisk dropped 7.8%, and Hynix directly crashed 12.8%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has also fallen for six consecutive days.
But the price drop is not the scariest part; the long-short ratio is absurd. $MU at 4.88, $SNDK at 5.01, $SKHYNIX at 5.91—each more extreme than the last, and the open interest is still rising. Micron surged from 33 million to 38 million, SanDisk from 70 million to 110 million, and Hynix doubled from 40 million to 84 million. What does this mean? The bulls keep buying as prices fall, stubbornly holding on without selling.
The fundamentals haven't actually collapsed; HBM orders are still there, and long-term contracts remain intact. But the current problem isn't fundamentals—it's that the chip structure is too tight. After such a big drop today, the bulls still haven't given up, which itself is a risk. Let the dust settle for a while; once the liquidation data stops spiking and market volatility narrows, then consider testing with a small position.
Key support levels below: Micron looks at 850, if broken then 800; SanDisk looks at 1300, if broken then 1250; Hynix looks at 900, if broken then 850.
What do you think—is this storage wave a correction or a bear market?
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
#美光暴跌后：是底部还是半山腰？
#HBM4量产能否推动SK海力士盈利再创新高？ AI computing power demand has shifted from being "expected" to a quantifiable, structural source of revenue, and the rapid commercialization of 2nm technology has further widened the technological gap with competitors. The real test is not on the demand side—where there is virtually no ceiling—but whether TSMC can maintain its profit margin floor while simultaneously advancing 2nm capacity expansion, overseas factory construction, and next-generation process development. The current gross margin level of 66.4% remains absolutely leading in the global semiconductor manufacturing sector, but the trend of sequential contraction is worth continuous monitoring. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 📊 Storage Giants Plunge | SanDisk, SK Hynix: Is It a Valuation or Fundamentals Crash?
Brothers, the storage sector was bloodied overnight. In one sentence: South Korea triggered a circuit breaker, SanDisk broke key support, but fundamentals and stock prices are at odds.
Let's look at the data first——
Ticker Latest Price 24H Drop Key Level
SanDisk SNDK $1,403.34 -5.33% Continued decline in after-hours to $1,339
SK Hynix (Korean stock) ₩1,277,000 -10.01% Intraday drop exceeded 12%
KOSPI Index 5,554.22 -7.57% Triggered the 10th circuit breaker this year
SanDisk slid from $1,787 in early October to $1,403, a pullback of over 20% in two weeks. SK Hynix fared worse, with intraday losses expanding to 12%, hitting the lowest price since April 27, forcing the Korea Exchange to halt trading for 20 minutes.
Why did this happen?
The trigger was the US CPI overnight exceeding expectations, with high interest rate expectations suppressing all high-valuation assets. But the storage sector fell harder than other tech stocks due to an additional reason: prior leveraged positions being liquidated. Hedge funds' leveraged positions on Korean memory chips were forced into chained liquidations, and retail investors' double-leveraged single-stock ETFs long positions also blew up simultaneously, mechanically amplifying selling pressure.
But here is a key divergence.
On October 14, Samsung Securities just released a report with a core view: "The stock price decline excessively reflects profit concerns." They maintain a buy rating on Samsung and SK Hynix, reasoning that HBM production occupies existing capacity, new production lines take time to build, and the current profit cycle in the memory industry will last longer than before. "Peak margin does not equal peak profit," so the stock price drop is a valuation cut, not a fundamentals cut.
Data from the NAND side also supports this logic. Although the 512Gb NAND trade price fell to $0.30/Gb, this is due to a severe inversion between trade prices and official factory prices. Consumer-grade NAND contract prices are actually rising—about $0.33 per Gb, up 30% to 40% quarter-over-quarter. Manufacturers prioritize advanced capacity for HBM and server DRAM, systematically squeezing supply of consumer-grade NAND.
So the current situation is: stock prices are trading on "AI bubble bursting," but industry data says "capacity is insufficient and structural."
🎯 Trading strategy, key points:
SanDisk: $1,400 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. After-hours has already touched $1,339; if the daily close cannot recover this level, the next support is $1,250-$1,280. But note—this round of SanDisk's decline follows the sector's valuation cut, not its own performance issues. If the storage sector sentiment stabilizes later, SanDisk's rebound elasticity will be greater than the broader market. Do not short below $1,400.
SK Hynix: Korean stock sentiment is extreme; the first trading day after a circuit breaker often has aftershocks. But Samsung Securities' "buy" rating is not issued lightly; institutions are starting to turn bullish at this level. Don't cut losses in panic after the circuit breaker, and don't rush to bottom fish; wait until Korean stock trading volume normalizes.
Overall judgment: The storage sector is currently "macroeconomic sentiment suppressing fundamentals." CPI and interest rate expectations are short-term dominant variables; the long-term demand logic for HBM and AI data centers remains intact. Keep positions below half, save bullets for when sentiment clears.
📌 The above does not constitute investment advice. Leverage carries risks; don't bet on direction during circuit breakers.