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🚨Is Big Brother Maji starting to withdraw? BTC long positions are being reduced!
In the past two days, as the market pulled back, the volatility in Big Brother Maji's account has also significantly increased. The unrealized loss in the past 24 hours is about $1.42 million, and the cumulative profit over the past 7 days has shrunk to about $1.62 million. What's more noteworthy is the active reduction of BTC long positions. The current account still holds heavy positions:
$ETH long positions about $92.62 million, entry price $2671.16, liquidation price $2548.34
$BTC long positions about $25.18 million, entry price $84112.4, liquidation price $70059.66
$HYPE long positions about $19.82 million, entry price $93.06, liquidation price $70.43, currently an unrealized loss of about $650,000
The total of the three major positions is close to $150 million. At this scale, even a normal pullback can cause million-level profit and loss fluctuations. 📉 What really deserves attention this time is not how much was lost in one day, but the active reduction of BTC long exposure after the market pullback. This does not necessarily mean a complete bearish outlook, but at least it shows that during the high-level consolidation phase, large funds are starting to shrink risk. ETH remains the core position of the account, while HYPE is currently the biggest loss drag. The focus next is still on the gains and losses around ETH 2670; if the price continues to be under pressure, the overall volatility of long positions may further increase.
The biggest fear with high leverage is never a single pullback, but continued decline after the pullback. This round of reduction by Maji also reminds everyone: the higher the market consolidates, the more you need to watch the risk boundaries, not just the floating profits 🔥The recent $BTC trend has indeed been somewhat frustrating. BTC previously surged to around $85,360 before pulling back again, currently hovering near $84,200. On the 1-hour chart, the BOLL middle band is about $84,680, the upper band around $85,120, and the lower band near $83,980. Simply put: 👉 There is temporary support near $84,000 👉 Selling pressure above $85,000 remains obvious 👉 BTC is waiting for a new directional choice But compared to the candlestick itself, I am now more focused on the $CL crude oil price. A few days ago, the market briefly expected easing in US-Iran relations, causing crude oil to quickly fall and risk assets to catch a breather, with BTC rebounding from lows afterward. However, the weekend negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz did not proceed as smoothly as the market expected, geopolitical risks have heated up again, and crude oil prices have strengthened once more. Currently, CL has returned to the $92–94 range, indicating the market has not fully digested the energy supply risk. 🔥 This is very important for BTC. If crude oil continues to rise, energy costs may increase inflationary pressure again, while suppressing market risk appetite; if CL can fall back, the macro environment pressure on BTC may also ease. Recently, the market has repeatedly shown similar correlations: Crude oil strengthens → Inflation concerns rise → Risk assets under pressure → BTC falls Therefore, simply watching a single BTC candlestick to judge direction may not be enough The US and Iran are still discussing how to open the Strait of Hormuz, but the discussion is not about "whether to open it," rather "under whose conditions it will open."
During the UN General Assembly, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said in New York that a "seven-day plan" had been delivered to the US side through Qatar: if the US complies with the memorandum of understanding from June this year, normal navigation through the strait can be restored within seven days.
The timeline given by Iran is: the US action will take about four to five days, the waterway will reopen on the sixth day, and the final agreement will be discussed on the seventh day. Tehran emphasized that these are not new conditions but are already included in the memorandum — lifting the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, easing oil sanctions, unfreezing overseas assets, and ceasefires on all fronts.
The US public stance is tougher. Trump said he had rejected Iran's proposal and claimed the US "completely controls" Hormuz and that oil is still flowing. Iran responded that conditions have not been withdrawn, the diplomatic door is still open, and they are waiting for the mediator to convey a formal reply. Saudi Arabia demands the waterway return to the pre-war status of February 28.
This waterway is responsible for about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The June memorandum once eased market concerns but quickly fell apart; free passage for 60 days, mine clearance, toll rights, and nuclear issues all failed to materialize. Now both sides are discussing "phased" approaches, but the core remains the same: Iran wants the blockade lifted first, and the US wants to see stable navigation first. Only when one side makes the first concession can the negotiations truly begin. #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Brothers, Fa Jia Ge has made a profit, but Fa Jia Ge's profit was only a matter of time.
Because I am not blindly shorting, but have discovered several details, connected them, and uncovered a shocking big secret.
The first detail. This Friday (October 2), the US September nonfarm payroll report will be released, and the market expects about 100,000 new jobs, which is just an appetizer.
The real big thunder is coming later, on October 27-28, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Goldman Sachs has already clearly stated that this is expected to be the last rate hike of the year.
Nonfarm payrolls plus rate hikes, double macro bearish shocks hitting one after another, where will high Beta crypto assets run?
The second detail, on-chain.
On September 24, a whale transferred 42,000 ETH to Galaxy Digital, worth about $112 million, and directly placed sell orders.
In the past week, a total of 112,053 $ETH (about $300 million) were transferred to Bitfinex for concentrated selling.
At the same time, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows, losing $141 million in the week from September 14 to 18.
Smart money is running, retail is catching. Do you understand this picture?
The third detail, the candlestick chart.
Looking at the daily chart, ETH dropped from 2806 and has been struggling repeatedly around 2708, with 2724 above it being an impassable resistance.
The right shoulder of the double top pattern is getting lower and lower, and the bulls' strength is visibly weakening.
55.71% of contract holders are still long; this crowded long position is the best fuel for the main force.
I opened a short at 2713.62, now with a return of +50.01%.
Stop loss is set just above the previous high of 2806, with the first target to break below 2600.
If 2600 cannot hold, the next stop is directly at 2500.
Don't be fooled by small intraday rebounds.
Macro calendar, on-chain selling pressure, technical breakdown — three signals resonate, the direction is already very clear.
$BTC
$ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The Strait of Hormuz has become a bargaining chip again, not because it suddenly became more important, but because neither side has found a cheaper chip than it yet.
Iran ties the reopening of the waterway to the lifting of blockades, sanctions, asset unfreezing, effectively using the energy choke point as a performance guarantee. The U.S. rejection of the "seven-day plan" means it is unwilling to exchange a fragile temporary arrangement for short-term calm before the midterm elections. The General Assembly merely reopened old issues: the June memorandum mentioned ceasefire, reopening, and negotiations—promised on paper but not upheld on the battlefield.
The real difficulty is not the seven-day timeline, but the sequence. If the strait opens first, Iran immediately loses leverage; if the blockade lifts first, the U.S. fears Tehran will benefit and then close it again. Rights to tolls, management authority, the Lebanese front, nuclear material disposal—each can drag "reopening" into a "conditional trial passage." Saudi Arabia wants the pre-war status quo, Iran wants new post-war rules; these two goals are not on the same map.
So now it looks more like continuing negotiations on the conditions for reopening, rather than having agreed on reopening itself. The mediators are still relaying messages, indicating the door is not locked; public mutual vetoes show neither side is willing to concede first. For the market, as long as conditions hang over the strait, oil prices and freight rates will find it hard to price as if "it's over." Watch the statements, but more importantly, watch if ships really dare to pass. #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Tokenized US stocks can now be used as collateral to borrow USDC. This does not mean you actually hold the stock.
Coinbase has added 7 tokenized US stocks including AAPL, NVDA, TSLA to Aave on Base. Eligible non-US users can use them as collateral to borrow USD stablecoins, but the tokens themselves cannot be borrowed. The borrowing limits are deliberately kept very low.
Remember two things:
The oracle follows US stock market hours and will pause on weekends and holidays. On-chain positions exist 24/7, and liquidation rules do not pause along with the NYSE.
The tokens track the stock price but do not grant you equity. Being able to use them as collateral does not make you a shareholder. #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#RWA #Aave #USDC #TokenizedStocks140U Challenge to 10000U｜Day 172
Initial principal: 140 USDT
Current total assets: 17083.13 CNY
Today's profit: +87.69 (+0.51%)
All-time high: 33000 CNY
BTC｜Current price 84163.3
Key resistance: 84860.0
Key support: 82960.0
The one-hour structure is still a box range, with the 21 MA at 84519 and the 55 MA at 84386 almost overlapping, indicating short-term bulls and bears are tugging, not a trending phase. After a previous surge to 87374, selling pressure was released, now returning to sideways consolidation; volume hasn't increased, so the main force prefers to spike up and down to trigger stop losses rather than chase. On the macro side, long-term US Treasury yields remain high and Fed expectations fluctuate, but spot ETF net inflows continue to support below, so the price is stuck between 83k-85k without a clear breakout.
In terms of operations, 84860 needs a solid close above with volume to target 86000-86600, 88000; if 82960 is effectively broken by a bearish candle, the consolidation breaks down, then look for support at 82000-82500, 80000-80100. ETH support is at 2630-2700, resistance at 2750-2800; SOL range is 110-116. Avoid frequent trades during consolidation, think through position sizing and stop losses first, then follow the trend once direction is confirmed. Staying alive is more important than guessing right once. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $XAU $XAUT
Gold broke the September 16 low, so the correction is extending rather than ending. $4,214 and $4,091 below, $4,315 above. wave 2 is still the working read, but the longer it refuses to bounce the less comfortable that read gets.$BTC This wave of surge followed by a pullback shows the direction has started to diverge.
On the 21st, a large bullish candle with high volume pushed from 81,000 directly up to 86,600; on the 22nd, it surged to a high of 87,300 but immediately weakened. On the 23rd, a long upper shadow bearish candle gave back all the gains, closing at 84,400. For the next four days, it consolidated in a narrow range between 83,200 and 85,200, with repeated lower shadows but never reclaiming above 86,000.
Until early this morning, it tested 83,200 again. The long upper shadow at 87,000 represents the strongest resistance in this wave. The capital flow matches this: exchanges have seen net outflows overall in recent days, whales are still moving coins to cold wallets, with a 24-hour net outflow exceeding 2,000 BTC. However, spot holders are clearly taking profits at high levels, as trading volume sharply shrank after the peak on the 21st-22nd.
Coins are leaving exchanges, but the price can't push higher—this is turnover, not one-sided accumulation. In the short term, watch if the 83,000 level can hold. If it holds, consolidation continues; if broken, it will likely test 81,000 again. The first resistance above is between 85,200 and 85,500; to truly strengthen, it must absorb the long upper shadow at 87,000.$BTC From 83500 to 84500, then reversing position"
The theft rumors pushed BTC down into a dip. I didn't go all in, nor bet on the direction, just placed a long order around 83500. That wasn't faith, just a ticket. Set the stop loss first; if wrong, exit.
The price hovered around 83500, which was frustrating. After a few hours, the market finally lifted. 83800, 84000, 84200—the numbers gradually turned green. At 84500, I took profit. Didn't wait for 85000, nor fantasize about a big move; makinZEC has finally dropped this round, but honestly, I can't feel happy at all 😮💨
Current price is 1573.67, down 0.45% in 24 hours, falling from yesterday's 1661 to a low near 1570, a retracement of nearly 90 points.
My short position at 868.78 is seeing floating losses narrow from -273% to -243.37%, with a margin of 57.7U and a liquidation price at 2682.
But after carefully reviewing the market, this looks more like a buildup before a rise, not a real downtrend.
① The retracement is restrained. From 1661 to 1570, it's only a 5.5% pullback; the order book shows 52% buy orders and 48% sell orders, basically balanced, and the buy side hasn't collapsed. There are many buy orders supporting the bottom below 1570, no panic selling or dumping.
② Volume hasn't increased. A real drop would come with panic selling and a surge in volume, but today's volume is flat, selling pressure is limited, just normal profit-taking.
③ Independent narratives remain intact. Grayscale's ZCSH spot ETF is close to $900 million, Paradigm is positioning in ZEC, NU7 upgrade hasn't been implemented yet, positive factors haven't fully played out, so funds won't leave easily.
My personal judgment: this retracement is a buildup for a rise, not a trend reversal.
The core support is at 1550; holding above this is still a bullish opportunity. The strong resistance is between 1600-1650; once broken, targets are 1700 and 1750.
I will continue holding my short position, but I know: ZEC is a volatile coin, whether going long or short, strict timing is required, quick in and quick out. $ZEC dropped 10% in four days, do you still dare to touch it?
Institutional channels are still bullish: Grayscale just filed for the Zcash High Income ETF, using options strategies to create an income product. The ZEC product line has expanded from spot exposure to rental income tools, something XMR can only dream of.
Coinbase now allows ZEC as collateral for Morpho loans. This is the first time mainstream DeFi collateral pools have opened to privacy coins. The more coins locked in the vault, the tighter the circulating supply.
NU7 upgrade schedule confirmed: testnet activation on 10/6, community vote passed 99.9% to cut block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and the old Sprout pool will be directly frozen then. These three cuts on the supply side have not yet been fully priced by the market.
Risks are also clear: RSI at 74 still hanging in the overbought zone, 26 points above MA30 divergence, a sharp pullback could come at any time.🎢 The market dropped below 84,000! Four platform coins show four different trends, with only UNI surging against the trend!
The market dipped below 84,000, and the four major platform coins exhibited completely different movements, breaking the stereotype that "platform coins are the most resistant to drops" 🔥
Market data:
$BNB 774, down 2.6%
$OKB 121, up 1.5%
$HYPE 93, up 1.2%
$UNI 9.55, surged 5.6%
BNB showed the weakest trend; the core reason is not the failure of the burn mechanism, but the heavy accumulation of last round's trapped chips around 770, which is a heavy resistance cost zone. If support fails, the next target is 760.
UNI had the largest increase, but this is not due to a sudden fundamental improvement; it is simply an oversold rebound after a large prior drop. 9.55 is just one step away from the 10 mark.
In short, the bigger the drop, the stronger the rebound, but this does not mean a trend reversal.
Focus on two key levels: UNI 10 and OKB 123. Only a successful breakthrough can confirm the sector's true strength.
By the way, a quick complaint: I'm still holding five protective positions in BNB. Wall Street's dog really lives up to its name 😂 Today's downturn is mainly due to:
1. Rising government bond yields, causing pressure and pullbacks in US stocks and crypto
2. Especially because gold has fallen significantly, indicating issues caused by rising interest rates (gold does not yield interest)
3. Additionally, oil prices have seen a slight increase
BTC short-term support: 81800 / 80300; resistance: 84800 / 87100
ETH short-term support: 2635 / 2570; resistance: 2720 / 2780
This week is a super week for macro data, set your stop losses well, volatility may be high, the main strategy is to short on rallies On-chain data update: Brother Maji's positions have reached a point where close monitoring is necessary.
His current account exposure is 93.41 million U, all in full-position perpetual long contracts, with three positions in very different situations:
$ETH 25,000 coins, 25x leverage, the only one with unrealized profit, but the liquidation price is close to the entry cost, and funding fees are continuously eating into profits. The safety buffer is very thin; a slight market pullback will turn unrealized profits into losses.
$BTC 200 coins, 40x leverage, unrealized losses are expanding. The extremely high leverage cannot withstand deep drawdowns; any price weakness pushes it close to the liquidation red line.
$HYPE 136,000 coins, 10x leverage, accumulating unrealized losses. Altcoin sentiment is fading, causing high volatility; pullbacks are far more damaging than for mainstream coins.
My judgment: The bullish direction is fine, but going full position with high leverage is a double-edged sword.
Riding the trend amplifies gains enjoyably, but once a large bearish candle hits, the account has almost no buffer and faces immediate forced liquidation.
#BTC spot ETF net inflows near $3 billion over 7 consecutive days
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing financing pressure
#Earnings watcher: Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand as a focal point For institutional users and individuals who require commercial privacy, "speed" is only a basic need; the more fundamental question is "who can see my transactions." Anwang's auditable privacy mechanism addresses a different dimension of demand: allowing users to enjoy the settlement efficiency of blockchain without exposing all financial information on a public ledger. Speed is the entry ticket for infrastructure, but privacy and compliance are the real reasons institutions and high-net-worth users choose a settlement layer.In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has once again staged a high-leverage game. According to market data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the last 24 hours was about $162 million, with over 68,000 positions forcibly closed. Among them, long positions accounted for about $75 million, and short positions about $87 million. The largest single liquidation exceeded $3.3 million, coming from XRP perpetual contracts. What is truly worth cautioning against is not just the sharp drops or surges, but the repeated harvesting of longs and shorts. 📉 Price suddenly drops after chasing longs 📈 Just after stopping losses and switching to shorts, the market quickly rebounds ⚠️ The higher the leverage, the more likely to become a source of liquidity in volatility Meanwhile, the market is not completely lacking funds. BTC spot ETF fund flows remain under attention, with institutional funds continuously participating; but on the other hand, US long-term Treasury yields are high, financial conditions are tight, and macro funds still have divergent views on risk asset allocation. This creates a typical scenario: ETF funds provide support, macro pressure limits upside; leveraged funds are repeatedly forced out amid fluctuations. This is why observing price rhythm and key support and resistance is now more important than "guessing whether it will rise or fall." 💡 BTC: Watch the $83K–$84K support zone; regaining $85K is needed to improve the short-term structure. 💡 ETH: Watch if $2.60K can hold; $2.70K–$2.75K is important short-term resistance. 💡 SOL: Focus on observing $119 $ENA's strong performance over the past week is inseparable from Ethena bringing Binance's Tokenized US stocks into USDe's underlying basis trade. In other words, when you buy Tokenized stocks, you simultaneously short the corresponding stock perpetual contracts, holding on-chain stocks while hedging price risk with derivatives. This means the revenue source behind USDe is beginning to expand from Crypto to the traditional stock market.
This is also one of the directions of integration as understood by Ajian. If more traditional assets can be tokenized in the future (which I actually believe is inevitable), combined with corresponding derivatives, Token → Perpetual → Funding → Revenue, on-chain USD could have a larger profit market than Crypto. $ENA will grow unstoppable alongside RWA.$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Experienced traders all know a rule: rallies over the weekend often see a pullback on Monday.
Why? Because traditional financial markets are closed on weekends, crypto market liquidity is low, and a small amount of capital can push prices up. But when the US stock market opens on Monday, real big money enters, and prices get revalued. If the weekend rally is too strong, profit-taking is likely on Monday.
If it rose over the weekend, don’t chase the market at Monday’s open. Wait to see the ETF capital flow after the US stock market opens, then decide whether to add positions. In a bull market, opportunities are always there; missing a day or two doesn’t matter.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The autumn night turns chilly, I poured half a glass of whiskey, yet the screen still flickers with those cold-glowing K-lines. After the market close on September 30 Eastern Time, Micron will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report. The suited analysts in the market are once again exuberantly bullish, shouting that AI data center demand for HBM and large-capacity memory has broken through the ceiling. But to an old hand like me who has crawled and struggled through market ups and downs, every earnings season feels like a wild party before a hangover—it's lively, yes, but the aftereffects often knock you down. Looking back at last quarter, Micron rode the hard demand from AI infrastructure to push revenue to a historic peak, fueling plenty of market imagination. Yet the market’s appetite is never satisfied; tonight we’re not only watching how much real cash HBM, DRAM, and NAND have generated, but more importantly, the price trends and supply-demand guidance for the coming quarters. Storage chips have always been the wildest beast in the semiconductor industry’s cycles, with huge profits and losses often separated by just one quarter of inventory backlog. Neighboring SK Hynix and Samsung are ramping up aggressively—this round, is it a super long bull cycle for the industry, or a rehearsal for another supply-demand backlash? Looking at the sentiment disturbances brought by KoreaMemoryRebound and SandiskBeatAndBuyback, smart money never dares to bet one-sidedly. An even more interesting game has actually spread onto the chain. In recent years, tokenized assets in the US stock market have flooded the scene, and the volatility of Micron’s token $xMU in the secondary market,Micron earnings are coming, and I’m watching memory prices more than the headline EPS.
AI has created huge demand for high bandwidth memory, but expectations around memory stocks have also risen a lot. At this stage, simply saying “AI demand remains strong” probably isn’t enough for me.
I want to see whether HBM demand is translating into stronger pricing, better margins and more visibility into future orders.
Personally, I think Micron is an interesting way to check the health of the broader AI infrastructure cycle. Nvidia tells us how strong demand is for compute. Micron can tell us whether that demand is continuing to spread into the memory needed to power those systems.
The risk I’m watching is supply. Memory has always been cyclical, and strong pricing can eventually encourage more capacity. If supply catches up too quickly, the story can change.
#MicronEarningsAhead $BTC $ZEC Just a few casual words about the trade notes. Although I haven't broken even on this trade yet, it's basically close. The maximum floating loss on this trade should be 27%. I actually think I failed badly on this trade.
Reason one: I blindly tried to guess the top (although I seem to have guessed correctly). I thought the area around 1680 to 1700 was basically the peak of the recent cycle. But I should have followed the trend instead of blindly guessing tops and bottoms.
Reason two: I didn't set the entry and take-profit points well. Recently, I've been taking profits after just a few points. But this time I kept thinking about taking profit near 1470 because I thought the recent downtrend would basically fall to that level. However, the recent drop stopped and rebounded near 1520. At that time, I even posted a joke about the support near 1520 being a bit strong. (Since I felt something was off then, I should have taken profit and exited.)
Reason three: I blindly relied on MACD. My trading skills aren't solid enough. Seeing a downtrend on the daily MACD, I thought a drop was imminent. But actually, there was a very strong rebound early yesterday morning (once pushing toward 1700). Sometimes I see many people shorting at 800. If I were trading this coin then, I might have shorted at 800 too, because the daily chart showed a downtrend. But actually, the 3-day and 5-day moving averages were rising. MACD and RSI can be misleading; price cannot.
Reason four: I didn't manage risk well. I thought, since it was my last bit of money, I didn't stop loss. Also, when the price approached the breakeven point, I should have exited, but I didn't.$BTC
[In-depth Analysis] Bitcoin current price is $82,902, down 1.8% intraday, retreating from the stage high of 85,146.
Conclusion first: This round of correction looks more like a deleveraging by bulls rather than funds exiting the market.
Evidence lies in the capital flow: spot ETFs have seen increasing net inflows this week, yet the price is moving down against the trend, indicating allocation funds are buying while trading funds are reducing.
This kind of price and capital divergence often appears during a turnover phase, where chips shift from short-term holders to allocation holders.
Intraday volume has not expanded to panic levels; it is more about profit-taking by holders.
On the contract side, the long-short account ratio is only 1.24, funding rate has dropped to -0.003, and naked longs have been squeezed very lightly, so there is little fuel for further downside.
Structurally, 82,888 is today's low and also the short-term dividing line; holding above it counts as a low-volume pullback, breaking below signals a trend weakening.
My trading idea: if the low is not broken, you can lightly try going long with a stop loss below 82,000; the first target is 85,100, where you should take partial profits.
Risks must also be stated: if non-farm payroll and PCE data reverse, combined with ETF inflows turning negative, the independent rally won't hold; don't leverage too heavily.
This is analysis only, not advice; trade at your own risk. Would you choose to lightly buy at the low or wait to confirm by retaking 85,100?
$BTC Don't fall anymore
If it falls again, I really don't want to go to work
Why not just have a big waterfall
Let me take profits happily
—
$ETH dropped from 2724 to 2636 in 24 hours
The pullback from the high point has exceeded 80U
Price broke below MA5, MA10, MA20 in 15 minutes
All three short moving averages are above 2650
The rebound is getting weaker
But the lows keep moving down
The volume of decline is still expanding
This is the most torturous slow decline before the waterfall
—
ETH contract open interest is about 25.2 billion USD
Down 4.56% in 24 hours
Contract trading volume is about 72 billion USD
Funding rate is close to neutral, slightly bullish
Indicating long positions have not been completely cleaned out
2636 is the most critical support at the moment
If it breaks down with volume, first look at 2615
Then 2600
If 2600 continues to fail
It may directly test 2560 below
However, on September 25, the US spot ETH ETF still had a net inflow of about 87 million USD
Mid-term funds have not completely withdrawn
My view
If 2655 cannot be reclaimed, continue bearish bias
Only breaking 2636 counts as the waterfall officially opening
Regaining 2680 means giving up on bearishness for now
Market makers, stop grinding me down bit by bit
If it’s going to fall, just fall hard once
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Ansem(@blknoiz06) stated on September 28 that this round of NFTs will truly return, with art categories having room for growth, and greater opportunities lying in the combination of AI Agent and new issuance models. Data breakdown: As of the week ending September 22, CryptoPunks had 40 transactions totaling 1309 $ETH (approximately 3.58 million USD), accounting for about 40% of the monthly transaction volume; a few large transactions can drive market sentiment. Overlooked downside: The floor price of blue-chip NFTs has risen, but weekly transaction volume has been declining continuously since April, more indicative of existing holders reluctant to sell rather than new capital entering; "AI Agent+NFT" currently has no verifiable revenue data. The judgment is cautious: If weekly transaction volume does not return to April levels in the next month, the floor price increase will be difficult to sustain, and the recovery will begin with differentiation at the top rather than a full restoration. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. #Altcoin Rotation
The coins that led yesterday may not be the main players today. This morning, there has already been a clear shift in capital preference.
As of 08:24 Beijing time, on the OKX USD trading leaderboard, SUI rose 9.91% with a 24-hour trading volume of about $675,100; NEAR rose 6.98% with a volume of about $1,080,000. ZEC, which was still up over 7% yesterday, turned down 2.93% with a volume of about $118,700. W had an even higher increase of 24.02%, but its volume was only about $43,400.
This set of data looks more like structural rotation rather than all altcoins strengthening together. Although the gains of SUI and NEAR are not as exaggerated as W's, they are accompanied by higher turnover; ZEC turning from up to down indicates that the previous day's strength cannot automatically continue.
Next, I will watch whether the trading volume contracts during pullbacks of SUI and NEAR, and whether the order book can continue to thicken during rebounds. For a coin like W, which has a large increase but thin volume in a single USD trading pair, position sizing and exit plans should be determined earlier than chasing the rally.
In a rotation market, the leaderboard tells you where the capital has gone, and consecutive days of support tell you whether it is willing to stay.
$SUI $NEAR $ZEC Today's core contradiction: Record inflows vs. macro headwinds
Dimension 📈 Bullish strength 📉 Bearish pressure
Capital: ETF weekly inflows of $2.386 billion, a one-year high; net inflows turn positive in 2026; ETF inflows decreasing daily; profit-taking pressure rising
Macro: Monthly RSI back to 54, Supertrend turns green; 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.18%; October rate hike probability 68%-75%
On-chain: Exchange BTC balance drops to about 2.7 million coins, near historical lows; whales transfer out 4,500 BTC (about $379 million) after 4 years of dormancy
Geopolitics: US-Iran expected to hold a new round of indirect talks as early as the 28th; Brent crude breaks $98, geopolitical premium remains high
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand as the focus
Micron will release its earnings report after the market closes on September 30, and the market is now closely watching this report. Last quarter's revenue set a record, and the company has raised its guidance this time, with the core driver being AI data centers competing for HBM and high-capacity memory. Goldman Sachs just raised its 2027 capital expenditure forecast for the five major tech companies to $1.2 trillion, and AI companies like Anthropic are also racing to expand computing power. Money is still pouring into AI infrastructure, and there are no signs of cooling in storage demand in the short term.
But the market has already reacted in advance. xMU and MU both fell about 2.7% in pre-market trading, indicating that market expectations for the earnings report are very high and there is fear of surprises. The key to this earnings report is not how much was earned last quarter, but the judgment on subsequent storage demand and prices. If the guidance remains strong, it means the AI computing investment chain is intact, and tech stock sentiment can be stabilized. If it falls short of expectations, the entire AI hardware sector will need to be repriced.
Don't rush to chase in terms of trading. The earnings report is a touchstone: if the data is good, tech stocks will recover, and BTC will catch a breather; if the data is below expectations, tech stocks will pull back, and BTC won't be able to avoid it either. Wait for the results to land and see the market reaction before taking action. At this position, watching the show is safer than getting involved. $BTC $ETH $MU In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has once again witnessed a brutal "leverage liquidation". According to market data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the last 24 hours has exceeded $160 million, with approximately 65,000 accounts liquidated. Among these, long positions liquidated about $74 million, short positions about $87 million, with both sides clearly squeezed. Leverage positions of mainstream assets like BTC and ETH were frequently triggered, with the largest single liquidation exceeding $3.3 million. This indicates that the real danger in the current market is not just wrong directional judgment, but the intense back-and-forth losses under a high leverage environment. 📉 After chasing longs, prices fall; after chasing shorts, prices rebound. Once the price breaks upward, shorts are forced to stop loss; then the market falls back, and longs get liquidated. The market keeps fluctuating, ultimately forming a typical "long-short double kill". Many traders think they are finding a trend, but in reality, they may be providing liquidity amid volatility. Meanwhile, the market is not completely lacking capital support. BTC spot ETF inflows remain in focus, with continuous net inflows over recent days and ongoing institutional participation; on the other hand, US long-term Treasury yields remain high, dollar liquidity and financing cost pressures persist, and macro capital risk appetite continues to change. ⚠️ What really deserves caution is: the direction may not be wrong, but the timing might be. When the market enters a high volatility phase, blindly bottom-fishing can lead to further drops, and chasing shorts may face rapid rebounds. What matters now is not guessing the next candlestick, but controlling No one can always predict the market correctly; if you're wrong, just admit it. This time I was wrong too. Originally, I was like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword, planning for the market to drop in August, September, and October, and I had fully loaded my bullets. But the result was that Bitcoin surged wildly around 63,000, and now it has reached about 83,000.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin at 83,000 is indeed not expensive, and the loss wouldn't be that much. But I feel there is no risk-reward ratio, no odds. This time I missed out on 8 layers of positions, and I continue to wait for Bitcoin to drop. If it really doesn't drop and starts a bull market, then I admit it, and I will hold 2 layers of positions to get through the bull market.
There are many opportunities, but the principal is not always available. Missing opportunities is not regrettable at all; losing principal is the real loss. And in investing, the most important thing is compound interest—you can earn less, but you must never lose your principal.$BTC
The weekly candle for BTC closed last week with a solid breakout above 83000.
Several things need to be clarified (no more ambiguity):
1. The bear-to-bull transition has been clearly confirmed.
2. 57700 is the lowest point of this cycle.
Going forward, it’s not that there won’t be any pullbacks, but pullbacks are opportunities to add positions. Every dip should be met with excitement, and risk management should be based on 57700.
There are two references for adding positions during pullbacks: first, adding positions through chip concentration zones, with lower ranges at 81500-76700 / 73200-71500 / 70200-67900 / 66000-62500; second, adding positions based on the short-term holders’ profit and loss ratio, waiting for short-term holders to return to unrealized losses before adding positions. It is recommended to split into two parts for greater stability. SMCI has already started shipping the Vera Rubin NVL72 cabinets, closing around $43.3 on Friday, still some distance from the 52-week high of about $58.8.
The company states FY26 new orders exceed $60 billion, FY27 starts with record backlog, and full-year revenue guidance is $65 to $72 billion.
Goods have moved from PPT to shipping orders, yet the market is still pricing it based on old expectations.
My view: Don’t just focus on one-day gains; the real pricing depends on whether NVL72 shipments can convert backlog into revenue and whether gross margin can be maintained.
I won’t chase the rally for now, just keep an observation position; the invalidation condition is if shipments don’t keep pace or guidance is cut below $65 billion.
Do you trust the cabinet shipments to fulfill the guidance, or will you wait for the Q1 earnings report before acting?
$SMCI #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $DELL $HPEOn the surface, it's a celebration, but underneath, seats are quietly being swapped. The lively privacy coins and altcoin rebounds—has risk appetite really returned? Watching the market these past two days gives a very subtle feeling. ZEC has surged about 90 to 100% in a month, pushed up by the privacy narrative, ETF and ETP-related funds, and trading heat combined. ENA is also moving, currently around 0.287, up about 5% intraday, nearly 29% over seven days. But BTC is still hovering near 80.6K. The resistance between 85K and 86K is strong, and only above 83.3K can the recovery structure be considered intact. In other words, the real big player deciding overall risk appetite hasn't joined the party yet. What concerns me more is the emotional structure, not the gains themselves. ZEC's trend is a typical narrative plus capital resonance. The ETF/ETP channel provides traditional funds an entry point, and the privacy sector happens to have topical interest, making it easy for short-term funds to FOMO. But the problem is, this kind of rise often fully prices in expectations ahead of time. When everyone is discussing why it’s rising, the first wave of smart money may already be thinking about exit strategies. ENA is another emotional sample. Nearly 29% rise in seven days shows strong momentum, but 0.30 is a psychological barrier, and on October 5th, over 1.3 billion tokens will unlock. What does this mean? It means part of the current strength is racing against the unlocking expectation. The closer to that date, the more volatility may amplify, and those chasing highs will likely break mentally first. BTC’s hesitation is the underlying tone of the whole market. As long as it stays below 85K, the altcoin rebound looks more like a localized emotional repairZEC dropped from 1695 to 1553, with a maximum daily retracement of over 7%. The high-volume pullback raises the question: is this a "reversal to pick up buyers" or a "whale unloading"?
To get straight to the conclusion: in the short term, it looks more like a leverage cleanup rather than a trend reversal, but the risk is very high.
Why the drop?
ZEC's largest bullish whale, Garrett Jin, holds about 200,000 ZEC spot (approximately $320 million) and simultaneously shorts 38,000 on Hyperliquid as a hedge. As the price kept rising, his short position suffered an unrealized loss exceeding $33.83 million. To control risk, he was forced to close all his leveraged long positions, locking in about $25 million in losses. This triggered market panic and a cascade of long liquidations.
Is this whale unloading?
Not necessarily. The key point is that he closed leveraged longs, but did not sell off his spot holdings on a large scale. In other words, he is deleveraging and managing risk, not liquidating and fleeing. However, note that his 200,000 ZEC spot holdings (about 1% of total supply) could become potential selling pressure at any time.
Key levels:
· Strong support: 1550–1560 (around 4-hour MA20), break below targets 1420–1400
· Resistance above: 1650–1695, only a volume-backed hold here opens the way to 1750–1800
This coin, which surged 4x in a month, is extremely volatile; a single spike can cause liquidations. Currently, the long-short divergence is huge, and a sudden reversal could happen at any time. $ETH Bipolar Hunt: 2,562 triggers $636 million long liquidations
Current price ~$2,650, right stuck in the middle of the bipolar.
🔴 Upper liquidity zone: $2,828
Breakout triggers $649 million short liquidations.
Path: $2,742 (rejected once this week) → $2,816 Bollinger upper band → $2,828 explosion.
🟢 Lower liquidity zone: $2,562
Breakdown triggers $636 million long liquidations.
Path: $2,650 lost → $2,600 → $2,562 explosion.
⚠️ Core contradiction
$ETH net inflow last week was $690 million, with BlackRock alone taking $326 million. Whales have accumulated 9,158 ETH over three weeks at an average price of $2,658. Institutions are buying, but the price just won't rise.
Retail longs at 72.7%, smart money longs at 60.3%, positions extremely crowded. Funding rate only 0.0057%, neutral, no short panic premium—once direction is chosen, the stampede potential is huge.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 🎪 Monday Midday: DOGE and TRUMP Move Again, Are Retail Sentiments Coming Back?
Bitcoin has been sideways around 84000 for three days, but look at DOGE and TRUMP, these retail coins are starting to move again, indicating that market sentiment is gradually warming up.
$ETH is around 2700, a bit stronger than Bitcoin. The staking rate is still rising, long-term funds haven't left, but there's a lack of short-term catalysts. Gas fees have been very low recently, showing moderate on-chain activity, but this also means that once a DApp explodes, usage costs will be very low. 2700 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; breaking above 2750 confirms strength.
$DOGE is near 0.098, close to 0.1. Every time Dogecoin reaches this level, it attracts a wave of retail attention. Once the 0.10 psychological barrier is broken, the meme sector's sentiment ignites directly. Its market cap is already over ten billion dollars, no longer a small coin, but it still retains its retail nature. Whenever the market consolidates, funds like to flow into topic-rich coins like DOGE. Elon Musk has been tweeting again recently, deeply binding the coin.
$TRUMP is around 2.11, a politically sentiment-driven coin. The overseas stablecoin plan has been put on the agenda, continuously catalyzing policy. This coin is strongly tied to policy news; once new crypto policies emerge, it reacts faster than anyone. 2.1 is a psychological level; holding it leaves room for further gains. Volatility is high but so is elasticity.
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Don't go long for now
It is estimated that there will be another big drop
Whales will be liquidated heavily below
Then it's good to go long
The trend is still bullish
Aggressive friends can open a small long position first
Keep the rest of the position to catch the dip
—
$ETH whales have about $32.12 million long positions stacked between 2614 and 2632
The largest liquidation line is near 2613
Short term target is 2630 first
Then look at 2622 and 2614
If these levels break, it will continue to test 2550
Recently, ETH futures open interest decreased by about 500,000 contracts over four days
Leverage ratio also dropped to the lowest level since March
This looks more like active deleveraging
It cannot be defined as a trend reversal yet
Wait until whales are liquidated
Then re-enter long after reclaiming 2630 for more stability
—
$ZEC market cap is still around $26.4 billion
Short-term support is at 1550 first
If broken, then look at 1500
Resistance above is still at 1600 and 1685
Overall trend has not completely deteriorated
But this high volatility phase is not suitable for chasing the rally
—
$SNDK short-term support is at 1740
Strong support at 1680
Resistance above at 1815 and 1900
AI servers' demand for NAND storage remains a long-term logic
But the valuation after continuous rise is no longer cheap
Better to wait for a pullback before buying rather than chasing highs
—
This time it looks more like deleveraging first then pumping the price
You can open a first position
But don't use all your bullets at once
The truly comfortable long position
Most likely requires whales to be liquidated first
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC BTC surged from 87,000 then pulled back and continues to correct. Everyone is focused on which level can hold support.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Currently, $BTC is around 84k, and above 85k is a dense cost area for long-term holders/ETF investors. The correction generally divides into three levels:
1) Shallow correction (healthy turnover)
83.3k – 84.0k: short-term support, ETF inflows + exchange withdrawals can still hold here.
If it rebounds here: it means only the profit-taking above 85k is digested, and the structure remains bullish.
2) Normal pullback (retest after breakout)
80k – 82.8k: the dense volume area before the previous high breakout, also considered the "main support" by many analysts.
If volume shrinks here and it does not break 80k: usually a zone for bulls to add positions.
If it breaks below 82.5k but holds above 80k: it can still be considered a strong consolidation.
3) Deep correction (structure weakens)
78k – 80k: near the cost zone of short-term holders, also an important demand zone on 4-hour/weekly charts.
75k – 78k: a deeper liquidity zone; if macro factors (US Treasury yields, USD, PCE/employment data) further hit risk assets, this area will be tested.
A valid close below 80k: short-term shifts from "high-level consolidation" to "pullback to breakout zone," with downside targets at 78k → 75k.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 [100x Challenge: Day 63 — Live Trading Record]
1. Capital Status
Initial principal: 3000 yuan (initial) + 10000 yuan (additional)
Today's profit: +36 yuan
Total profit: 4467 yuan
Current assets: 17064 yuan (-0.14%)
Profit withdrawal funds: 400 yuan
2. Current Positions and Systems
$BTC short at 87000, risk-reward ratio 3:1, current return 25%
First add-on at 84700, preparing for second add-on.
View remains unchanged, oscillating upward between 77,000 and 85,000.
Today reached 83,000; as mentioned yesterday, after the exchange of new and old chips these days, there is a clear issue with the continuation of new chip support, a directional move is expected within three days.
$CL long at 89, risk-reward ratio 4:1, current return 58%, half position exited at 96.59
Conclusion: The US-Iran situation still holds the view that a battle is inevitable; the possibility of crude oil reaching 100-120 has increased.
However, in the long term, a honeymoon phase between China and the US is about to appear; a short plan at 100-110 is being prepared.
For now, hold on.
$XAU long at 4199, risk-reward ratio 3:1, return -1%
Gold is starting to build a base position according to the trading system, with positions established at 4180 and 4150.
Gold is clearly under heavy pressure from the bulls, waiting for a massive rebound after the pressure ends. Going forward, only long positions on gold, no shorts. On the surface, both sides are still in ongoing communication, but so far, the core differences have not significantly narrowed. One side demands the lifting of some sanctions and blockade measures, while the other side focuses on the navigation conditions of the Strait of Hormuz as the key point of negotiation. The gap in key demands between the two sides remains large, so the difficulty of reaching a comprehensive agreement in the short term is still high. Previously, after Trump rejected the "7-day plan," he also sent a clear signal: negotiations can continue, but the agreement must meet the core conditions proposed by the U.S. side. Therefore, the so-called "continued consultations" this week should be understood by the market more as a risk expectation game rather than a countdown to a peace agreement landing. 📌 Several variables the market is truly concerned about: - Whether the actual daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover - Whether crude oil transportation further normalizes - Whether new military escalations occur between the U.S. and Iran - Whether there is substantial easing of sanctions and blockade measures - Upcoming U.S. macro data releases such as employment and PCE If these factors do not show obvious improvement, the news is likely to cause sharp short-term fluctuations in oil prices, gold, and BTC, but may not change the major directional trend. 🛢️ Regarding crude oil: Brent can still be closely watched in the $94–103 range. Negotiation news may bring rapid intraday rallies or declines, but if Strait transportation does not continue to recover, the risk premium will be hard to completely disappear. ₿ Regarding BTC: Bitcoin is currently mainly oscillating between $82,000–85,500. In the short term, it looks more like a consolidation phase, andA Korean platform is launching a new coin called CASHCAT.
The launch is scheduled for September 28 at 17:00.
The original rules state:
Supports three markets: Korean Won, $BTC, and USDT.
At the moment of activation:
Deposits and withdrawals will only go through Robinhood Chain.
Common misunderstanding:
Being able to trade does not mean you can transfer freely.
If you use the wrong chain, the coins won’t arrive.
This is the step where newcomers get stuck the most.
Check the network carefully before discussing the price.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $BTC $CASHCAT As the U.S. midterm elections approach, will the market experience a waterfall decline?
With the U.S. midterm elections on November 3rd drawing near, historically, political and regulatory uncertainties tend to rise before midterms, usually amplifying volatility in risk assets. In past midterm election years, BTC has experienced significant pullbacks in the pre-election phase, but a "certain waterfall" is not an inevitable pattern.
Potential bearish triggers that can easily induce declines:
① Regulatory expectation disturbances: As Congress enters the election cycle, progress on crypto-related legislation is likely to stall, leading to short-term policy uncertainty that can trigger emotional sell-offs.
② Macro factors dominate: Compared to the election itself, U.S. Treasury yields, non-farm payrolls, and inflation data have a greater impact on the market. If interest rate expectations rise again, that would be the core driver of a sharp correction.
③ Risk-off trading: Rising uncertainty about election outcomes causes capital to actively reduce risk exposure. Combined with high leverage in contracts, this can amplify sudden drops.
Supporting factors for hedging:
① Continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, with institutional incremental buying forming a bottom buffer;
② Historical statistics: After uncertainty settles, risk assets often recover and rebound. BTC’s historical average returns after midterm elections are not low, but this does not mean there won’t be volatility and sell-offs before the election.
Key distinction: Elections mainly amplify volatility but are not the decisive root cause of market trends. For a true waterfall decline to occur, weakening in U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, on-chain funds, and spot buying must happen simultaneously; if ETFs continue to see inflows and macro data remain moderate, it may just be intense range-bound volatility. $ETH ETH fell below $2650 today (September 28), currently trading around $2650, with a 24-hour decline of 1.97%. It briefly broke above $2700 in the early morning before quickly retreating.
Background of the pullback: In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $192 million, with long and short liquidations nearly balanced (long positions $96.38 million, short positions $95.66 million), and Ethereum long liquidations at $17.62 million. This "two-way cleansing" indicates intense market turnover rather than a one-sided crush.
Divergence in capital flow: Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows as high as $690 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $326 million. Institutional funds continue to enter, contrasting with the short-term price weakness.
Key levels: If ETH falls below $2562, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $636 million; conversely, breaking above $2828 will trigger short liquidation intensity of $649 million. The current price is about 3.4% away from the dense liquidation zone below, indicating short-term risk is skewed downward.
Mid-term narrative: Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade is entering its final phase, with the Sepolia testnet fork scheduled for October 6 and the mainnet targeted for deployment in Q4, focusing on improving parallel execution and network throughput. This is a catalyst that could lead to market repricing in the future.Small caps split three ways this morning. $OKB is the calm one, sitting near $121 inside a $114.81-$126.09 weekly range. $HYPE touched $97.67 in the past day, then slid to about $89.93, handing back its recent gains. $BICO got turned away at $0.023 and now trades near $0.0218. Only one of the three is keeping its footing. Fast risers matter less than which coins hold their ground once the pullback arrives, and that sorting has only just begun.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead ZEC's chance to hit a new high of 1697 — don't be scared off by one-sided interpretations of the news 💲
Many in the market are bearish on Grayscale's ZCSH high-yield ETF, assuming it's just an options product with no incremental buying, concluding that this rally is a bull trap for distribution. But the sentiment value of news is never to be underestimated in the crypto market. The continuous rollout of Grayscale-related products is steadily expanding institutional exposure to ZEC, attracting ongoing attention from off-exchange funds to the privacy sector. Sentiment catalysts often lead market moves ahead of fundamentals.
Current price is 1573.51, with an intraday high of 1683.93, just a step away from the all-time high of 1697.45. Simply seeing short-term small capital outflows does not directly equate to large holders fully exiting. Short-term capital rotation is a very normal chip exchange during high-level consolidation. A leverage long-short ratio of 1.55 indicates concentrated longs, but from another perspective, there is still ample long-side strength on the exchange. As long as there is a volume breakout above the previous high, short-sellers' stop-loss orders will further propel the price upward.
1387 is the core defensive level of this trend. As long as this support holds, the larger upward structure remains intact. High-level consolidation is essentially digesting previous profit-taking chips, accumulating momentum for another push to new highs.
Don't be bearish just by focusing on short-term capital outflows; the privacy narrative remains hot. At the previous high, there is always a chance to launch a new round of upward attack.
$ZEC $ASTER Playing these small coins requires a strong mindset. With macro turmoil, big coins fall, while small coins attract funds for speculation, but they are also more prone to going to zero. Last night I lost my mind and thought it could buck the trend and become a dark horse, but tonight it got slammed down hard like a nuke button. As an experienced trader, the biggest mistake I shouldn't make is playing small coins in a downtrend. This is gambling—win and you get a club model, lose and you end up working at sea. This beating tonight is well deserved. On this night dominated by PCE data and geopolitical tensions, ASTER's performance slaps all crypto players suffering in panic: don't be greedy, greed has a knife hanging over it.Looking at the DOT candlestick chart, I seem to see my lost youth. Polkadot's technology is very strong, and its cross-chain vision is grand, but no one is buying it. Most DOT holders are tech geeks who look down on those hype-driven meme coins and only believe in the power of code. But in this era of storytelling, DOT's silence is especially disadvantageous. Tonight, as international negative news breaks out, funds abandon assets lacking hot topics, and DOT is the first to be hit. Maybe one day, when cross-chain becomes a necessity, people will remember this lonely traveler. But until then, I can only sigh at the unrealized losses in my account. A lesson from an old trader: don't go against the trend; no matter how good the technology is, it's useless if no money comes in. ZEC volume-driven pullback should not be blindly mistaken for a dip-buying opportunity! Massive turnover at high levels hides fatal risks 💲
ZEC quickly dropped from 1695 to 1586, with a single-day maximum retracement exceeding 6%, causing intense market volatility. Many interpret this decline as a short-term shakeout caused by whales deleveraging, believing the trend remains intact and it's a chance to get in.
But one core point must be clarified: even if whales are merely closing leveraged long positions without large-scale spot selling, it does not mean this correction is a so-called "dip-buying opportunity." This round of ZEC's sustained surge was driven by a short squeeze, with a large number of momentum-following bulls piling in, pushing sentiment premiums to the max. Once a high-level volume-driven decline occurs, it means market divergence has fully erupted. The 200,000 spot coins held by whales hang like the Sword of Damocles over the market; even if they don't sell now, any slight market disturbance can trigger massive selling pressure at any time.
Many see only the closing of leveraged positions and think the bulls' foundation is solid, but they overlook the most fragile aspect of a short squeeze—the rally depends on continuously increasing leveraged funds. Once leveraged funds start to withdraw, the market lacks incremental buyers, and support levels can be easily broken.
The so-called 4-hour MA20 support at 1550-1560 is not an iron bottom. In a high-level trending market, support only holds when bullish sentiment is unified; when panic selling emerges, support can be instantly shattered. If the 1550 level breaks, the 1420-1400 range below will face a real test.
Upward pressure is also heavy, with a large amount of trapped positions accumulated between 1650 and the previous high of 1695. To restart the rally, volume must increase to firmly reclaim this resistance zone; otherwise, every rebound will look more like a chance for trapped holders to reduce positions, not the start of a new upward leg.
Do not be lulled by the notion that "it's just deleveraging, the trend hasn't reversed." Turning points in short squeeze tokens often come silently; shakeouts and distributions look almost identical in early candlesticks. At high levels, don't bet on pullbacks being opportunities; every retracement at the top could be the beginning of a trend reversal.
$ZECLooking at the trading volume of $DASH, my heart sank halfway. This old coin has long been forgotten by the market. When the market dropped tonight, it didn't even have the strength to resist, continuously declining. My biggest mistake was putting too much faith in the "payment concept." In the current market environment, stablecoins are the way to go. Who still uses DASH for transfers? As an experienced trader, the biggest mistake I could make is playing with these old coins that have no momentum during a downtrend. When Bitcoin drops 1%, they drop 5%. Tonight's moves can be described as "precisely avoiding all opportunities for gains and perfectly stepping into every pit." Accept the loss; tomorrow at the opening, I'll close positions to survive and preserve my capital.Hehe
This trade finally feels stable
Immediately give me a set of crypto triplets
Gradual decline
Slow drop
Sharp crash
My 70 ETH short position is finally less than 20 points away from break-even
It's really been tough going from floating loss to now
I say I'm not panicking
But every time there's a rebound, I'm secretly checking the liquidation price
—
$ETH fell today from above 2720 down to around 2644
24-hour drop about 1.6%
Trading volume still in the tens of billions of dollars
15-minute chart is already below multiple moving averages
2665 to 2680 is resistance for the rebound
Breaking 2640 gives a chance to touch my break-even point
If weaker, watch 2600
But this is 100x leverage
I won't add positions recklessly here
—
$ZEC 24-hour drop over 5%
Intraday low has touched 1552
Market cap about 26.4 billion dollars
24-hour trading volume about 1.2 billion dollars
Buy some spot near 1500 first
Add a second batch near 1450
If it recovers above 1600, then watch 1670
Pause buying if it breaks below 1420
—
$OKB market cap about 2.48 billion dollars
Circulating supply and max supply both 21 million tokens
After X Layer upgrade, total fixed at 21 million
Light position entry at 116 to 118
Add in batches at 112 to 114
If it stabilizes above 122, then watch 128
I only hold spot for OKB
—
Finally endured until here
This time, first save the account
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点