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JackYi called for a long position at 86K 20 days ago, and this time he really got it right.
To be honest, I didn't take it seriously at the time.
I also felt pressure at the 86K level, but I was itchy-handed and didn't dare to close my long positions.
As a result, this pullback wiped out half of the profits.
The lesson is simple: predicting correctly is useless unless you actually take action.
He said the pullback doesn't change the bull market, and there are opportunities everywhere in the early stage of a bull market.
I agree with half of that.
The trend really hasn't broken, but "opportunities everywhere" sounds like a consolation.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing to bottom-fish during a pullback, only to find there's another lower level after buying.
I'm not in a hurry to add positions now.
I'll wait until it stops falling.
Stubbornness is useless; price is the most honest.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $ZEC In this market, the narrative can change three times before the day is even over. 😮💨 I’m genuinely exhausted from sitting through every reversal. My $ETH short was opened around $2,359 and is still being held, with the floating loss now around 12,669U. Honestly, using 100x leverage and calling it a “long-term position” makes no sense. At that point, you’re not investing—you’re fighting to keep the margin alive while the whales sleep comfortably. 🐳 $ETH Market Check Trading volume: ~$10.6B Ma$206 billion. The batch of equity SBF held when FTX collapsed, if none had been sold back then, would be worth this amount today.
Anthropic is now worth $170.5 billion, 340 times.
SpaceX $15.1 billion, 75 times. Solana $7 billion, 35 times.
Robinhood $6.7 billion, 11 times. Cursor $3 billion, 15,000 times.
Mining farm Genesis Digital $3.5 billion. Altogether $206 billion, enough to put him into the global top ten richest.
1. The same person holding Anthropic, SpaceX, and Solana at the same time—I can't think of a second person in this circle. He really has an eye for it.
2. But the money he bet was clients' money. Once the hole was exposed, FTX went into bankruptcy liquidation, and this batch of equity was sold off piece by piece at the worst prices, with the proceeds paid to creditors at the bankruptcy day’s price. That 340 times gain afterward, SBF didn’t get a cent, and he’s still in jail.
3. I’m familiar with being forced to sell. Three years ago SOL was in the teens, I liquidated all my contracts to cover margin, not a single coin left, now it’s $122. The difference is I cut my own position, he cut other people’s money.
The person who truly made that 340 times gain does not have SBF in their name.ETH Today's Data Snapshot
Whale's $32 million long position on the edge of liquidation, liquidation price less than 1% away from current price
ETH is currently at $2,656, down 1.97% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $320.6 billion. The price has fallen from Friday's high of $2,805, and whale positions are being cornered — 5 million-dollar-level long positions total $32.12 million, with liquidation prices concentrated in the $2,613–$2,631 range. Among them, 3 whales hold a combined $8.86 million long position just 0.95%–1.07% away from the current price; one more drop will trigger cascading liquidations.
In the past hour, the entire network saw $68.18 million liquidated, with $63.81 million from long positions, and ETH itself liquidated $19.42 million. On the liquidation map, if ETH falls below $2,562, mainstream CEX long position liquidation intensity reaches $636 million; conversely, breaking above $2,828 triggers $649 million in short position liquidations, almost symmetrical between longs and shorts.
Funding is still providing support. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $690 million last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading weekly inflows at $326 million, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $13.94 billion. On the staking side, about 1.68 million ETH are queued to enter, with only 154,000 ETH exiting, making entries 10.9 times exits.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 75, still in the "Greed" zone. Whale long positions are just 1% away from liquidation; $2,562 is the next critical line — whether it breaks this level will be clear in the coming hours. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $ETH Being bearish won't make you rich, even if you're right😭😭😭😭[Old Chive Observation]
$INJ
INJ has risen rapidly these days.
On September 17, it was still at $5.72, peaked at $8.33 on September 19, and now is back around $7.4.
Several catalysts followed this surge.
Entered Solana on September 17, Meridian upgrade completed on September 24, and yesterday Jupiter connected to INJ, allowing direct conversion of Solana assets to INJ.
There is another clear milestone on September 30.
Community BuyBack ends, INJ involved in the buyback will be permanently burned, and Stockdrop claiming will start.
Entry: $7.20–$7.70
Take profit: $8.30 / $9.00 / $10.00 / $12.00
Stop loss: $6.80
If it breaks the previous high of $8.30, first target is $9.
If it can hold steady near $7.20 on the pullback, there is room for further speculation before September 30.US national debt at $40 trillion. From $39 trillion to $40 trillion took only 5 months. Each $1 trillion increase takes an average of 4 months. Annualized interest expense is $1.35 trillion—exceeding the defense budget, with $1 of every $7 in fiscal spending going to interest payments.
Then look at BTC: total supply of 21 million coins, 93% already mined, 450 new coins added daily. One is endlessly printing money, the other is programmatically scarce.
The US Dollar Index fell below 100, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank collectively bearish. Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts 98 by year-end, 96 next year.
Gold at 4400, Bitcoin at 84000—two safe-haven assets hitting new highs simultaneously is no coincidence; it’s a crack in the dollar’s credit.
What you’re buying isn’t Bitcoin, you’re buying the opposite of the dollar.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $BTC fell 1.47% today, closing at 83219, $ETH dropped 1.41%, closing at 2,652.26. The real focus is on two "nuclear bombs" this week.
September 30, 20:30, August PCE data release. Inflation continues to cool, easing interest rate pressure, giving risk assets a breather; stubborn inflation and rising high interest rate expectations put BTC under pressure.
October 2, 20:30, September nonfarm payrolls follow. If employment is too strong, interest rates are hard to cut; if too weak, recession fears return. This week, Federal Reserve officials will also speak intensively, and macro expectations could be repriced at any time.
Looking at the market, BTC's 24-hour high is 85199.8, low 82716.8, with MA20 at 80772.3; ETH high/low points are 2723.75 / 2635.71, with the moving average pressing at 2681.
Currently, BTC is influenced not only by halving and on-chain data, but also by US Treasury yields, the dollar, interest rate expectations, and liquidity, all of which transmit to the crypto space.
So don't rush to bet on direction; wait for the data release to see market pricing. Survive first, then wait for certainty.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Last week we finished discussing trend following: definition, direction judgment, execution space, reversal, coordination with waterfall prevention, and how to confirm its operational status from logs. One term repeatedly appeared throughout the week — aggregated take profit: the on/off state of the trend-following mechanism is determined by it. At that time, I left a sentence: only after clarifying the exit logic will these "whys" have complete answers. This week we enter this topic: take profit modes. As the first article, let's answer the most basic question — what problem does take profit solve? Let's put the conclusion upfront: entering is half the plan; exiting determines how the result is realized. Take profit does not solve "how to earn more," but rather "in what way the result is realized." This article discusses the role of take profit and exit logic, and does not represent a recommendation for ordinary users to set or modify platform parameters themselves. Take profit methods and parameters are part of the platform's preset rules; ordinary users can operate with default parameters, usually only needing to adjust the initial order and leverage according to their own account conditions. 1. Exit is an independent issue Most discussions in trading revolve around entry: how to judge direction, when to open, how large to open. But entry only answers half the question — after a position is established, it must have a way to end. This "ending method" is not an accessory to the entry decision, but a set of independent questions: which part of the position ends? Under what conditions does it end? What remains in the account after ending? None of these three questions can be answered by the entry decision. No matter how accurate the direction judgment is, it only places the position in a location.高位横盘越久，空头越容易误判一件事 真以为横盘是在给做空让路吗？ 我盯着 ETH 在 2687 附近挂空的那位朋友，其实他踩中的不是价格问题，是情绪惯性。涨多了就该跌，横久了就该崩，这套直觉在趋势末端经常失效。高位盘整更像换手，不像派发。衍生品结构上，若永续资金费率没有极端转负、未平仓合约也没随价格走弱而明显减仓，那空头赚的往往只是波动，不是方向。 真正值得看的是杠杆往哪边加。ETH 在 2687 这种位置反复磨，如果空头仓位越堆越厚，而现货没有同步走弱，一次向上插针就能引发被动回补，把犹豫的人逼成追高的人。这就是 FOMO 的温床：不是大家突然看多，而是空头先扛不住。 ZEC 这几天猛拉，叙事上被喊成"第三个头部币"，但这里要冷静。强势山寨的爆发通常靠情绪和稀缺筹码，一旦成交量跟不上、上影线变多，追进去的人会最先感到叙事疲劳。它的上涨对 BTC、ETH 未必是抽血，反而可能让风险偏好短暂升温，带动部分山寨补涨，但节奏会非常快，慢一步就是接盘位。 偏多路径：ETH 守住区间下沿，资金费率温和，空头回补推着价格试探上沿，ZEC 维持强势吸引场外注意。 潜在风险：美债长端利率继续攀升，融资#美元稳定币或加速出海
Bloomberg says the Trump administration is evaluating promoting the use of USD stablecoins overseas.
The Treasury Department and State Department may be involved, and private companies might also be brought in.
Specific plans, partners, and timelines have not yet been decided.
On the surface, this is about crypto, but in reality, it's about the USD system.
Stablecoin issuers hold users' USD, mostly investing it in short-term US Treasuries.
The more people use it overseas, the greater the demand for USD assets.
So what's being promoted is the USD, not the coin price.
An increase in stablecoin scale does not equal a rise in BTC; don't mistake a long-term narrative for short-term gains.
My judgment is that what really matters is the actual US Treasury holdings in reserves and whether on-chain payments are genuinely growing; don't over-leverage positions during the hype phase.
$BTC $ETH #美元稳定币Sharing an interesting story
$206 billion. That batch of equity SBF held when FTX collapsed, if he hadn't sold a single share back then, it would be worth this amount today.
Anthropic is now worth $170.5 billion, 340 times.
SpaceX $15.1 billion, 75 times. Solana $7 billion, 35 times.
Robinhood $6.7 billion, 11 times. Cursor $3 billion, 15,000 times.
Mining farm Genesis Digital $3.5 billion. Adding up to $206 billion, enough to put him in the global top ten richest.
1. The same person simultaneously holds Anthropic, SpaceX, and Solana; I can't think of a second person in this circle. He really has an eye for it.
2. But he bet with clients' money. When the hole was exposed, FTX went into bankruptcy liquidation, and this batch of equity was sold off piece by piece at the worst prices, with the money compensated to creditors at the prices on the day of bankruptcy. That 340 times gain afterward, SBF didn't get a cent, and he's still in jail.
3. I'm familiar with being forced to sell. Three years ago SOL was around a dozen dollars; I liquidated all my contracts to cover margin, not keeping a single coin, now it's $122. The difference is I cut my own position, he cut other people's money.
The ones who truly benefited from this 340 times gain do not have SBF in their name.The market collectively weakened, and many are asking if this is a preemptive caution ahead of the non-farm payrolls?
The major indices have collectively pulled back, mainstream coins have generally turned red, BTC and ETH are moving down in sync, and there is also clear sector differentiation. Coins like BCH and DOGE have experienced larger pullbacks, indicating that market risk aversion sentiment is already showing in the market.
The PCE inflation data and non-farm employment report, two major data points, are about to be released. It is realistic that the market has already entered a cautious mode in advance. Funds are choosing to reduce risk exposure early to avoid severe volatility around the data release, which has led to the current collective decline.
However, it should be noted that the pullback is not solely due to non-farm expectations. After a previous wave of gains, a considerable amount of profit-taking has accumulated, with some funds cashing out. Combined with concerns about macro data, these two forces have amplified the current retracement.
Originally, there was hope for the market to continue rising, but before the data even comes out, people are being shaken out first. This is how the crypto world works: the news hasn't arrived yet, but the sentiment has already played out.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $BTC $ETH
Dropped from 2724 all the way down to 2633 USD, falling nearly 90 USD in a few hours, the bearish sentiment is very strong.
Many people see this and their first reaction is that it will continue to fall.
But I still hold my long position firmly, steady as a rock.
The reason is simple: after the sharp drop, there was support around 2633,
price did not continue to break down, then fluctuated repeatedly between 2640—2655.
For me, this is the reason to hold the long position.
Now the price is around 2650, I mainly watch two levels:
2662 USD, if it breaks through and holds, short-term target continues to 2680, 2690—2700.
2633 USD, this is the stop-loss line for this long position.
If it breaks below and fails to recover, I will exit immediately, not stubbornly fight the market.
So for this trade, I don’t try to guess the bottom, nor chase the highs.
Hold if 2633 holds, look higher if 2662 breaks, admit mistake if it breaks down. Japan's two-year government bond yield surged to 1.975% on Monday, hitting a new high since 1995, with the five-year yield also reaching 2.43%.
What’s more worth watching than the headline itself in crypto is the chain reaction: the yen is a major funding currency for carry trades, and with the Bank of Japan's rate hike bets heating up, the cost of borrowing yen to go long on global risk assets is rising. The most liquidity-sensitive parts are usually the first to be cut.
BTC is currently priced at $83,237, down 1.39% intraday; ETH is at $2,648, down 1.78%. The crypto market often reacts to liquidity changes earlier and more sharply than traditional markets.
Falsification signal: If Japanese yields break above 2% but the USD/JPY does not weaken significantly, or the crypto market does not simultaneously widen its pullback, then this wave of liquidity concerns may have already been priced in early.Today, the talks between the US and Iran broke down again, causing both Bitcoin and Ethereum to experience varying degrees of pullback. The macro valuation is deteriorating, but internal demand within the crypto space remains strong, temporarily preventing a deep drop.
This week, BTC's dominance slightly decreased, indicating that new market value is flowing into mainstream altcoins like ETH. So even if Bitcoin continues to pull back, altcoins are less likely to crash.
Looking at Bitcoin itself, the 85k level has been tested three times without a breakthrough, and the daily divergence has persisted for a long time. Therefore, a decent rebound is unlikely in the short term; at least this divergence needs to be resolved.
Currently, there is no need to chase shorts. Each time the price fluctuates within the same range, it is accumulating strength for the next move. Consider continuing to short only if it pulls back below 83k.ZEC won't drop back to 1450-1500 this time
It will stabilize and hold up again
This manipulative whale really knows how to play with human nature. For the position added yesterday, I took partial profits first, and to be safe, I'm slowly raising the cost basis
The comments section is full of exaggerations, saying next week it will hit 2000, break the opening price, reach a historic high of 5000, become a triple coin, and the price looks higher and higheStaring at the screen for three hours, the K-line almost flattened into a straight line like an ECG. This extreme volume contraction is actually more unsettling than a big drop. I admit, just a few seconds ago, seeing a tiny fluctuation in a certain coin, my finger was almost pressing the buy button. That nagging thought of "Did I miss the opportunity?" surged through my mind like an electric current.
Right now, I am going through the most agonizing phase in trading: it's not about judging right or wrong, but about fighting the pathological urge to "do something or lose money." Forcing my hands to stay behind my back, taking a sip of cold water to cool down, this current wait-and-see approach is actually the greatest mercy to my account.
$SOL $SUI $APT This wave was truly a close call, with $NEAR short positions floating profits already reaching 193.06%. Looking back at the recent market, I almost impulsively reversed to go long, and thinking about it now gives me a chill.
Looking at the overall market environment, $BTC and $ETH are weakening across the board, with the market collectively dropping and most coins synchronously pulling back. There are occasional brief rebounds during the session that lure buyers in, creating a deceptive illusion that the downtrend is over, tempting impulsive long entries. NEAR also had a significant drop today, following the downward trend.
Trading contracts isn’t just about individual coins; market sentiment plays a huge role. When the overall environment is bearish, don’t let brief small rebounds throw off your rhythm. Often, trading is not just a test of technical judgment but more about self-discipline. Even if the floating profits look good now, they are ultimately just numbers on paper. Always be wary of sudden reversals, don’t be greedy for the last leg of the move, and take profits when you can—that’s the way to survive.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 House of Doge's stock price is moving independently from Dogecoin. On September 25, HODO closed at $0.17, dropping to 0.1652 after hours, just a step away from the low of 0.152 a week ago. The 52-week range of 0.152 to 19.49 shown on market software can be misleading: 19.49 was the historical price before the shell company Brag House merged, and after a 1-for-8 split adjustment in June, it remained on the chart. When House of Doge was listed on July 1, the stock price was only $2.44.
The key point is the decoupling. In three months, HODO has dropped over 90%, while Dogecoin has risen from the August low of 0.068 to above 0.09 — the coin price is bottoming, the stock price is probing the bottom, and their rhythms are out of sync. The reason is simple: HODO's market cap is only $15 million, a small float, and company events like financing and stock splits have overshadowed the influence of the coin price. The market does not treat it as a leveraged proxy for DOGE but is pricing it as a standalone payment company.
This may not be a bad thing. The stock price not dancing to the coin price indicates that capital is starting to evaluate its payment business, ETP layout, and $DOGE treasury, rather than just watching the market. The concept is the entry point; the company is the entity. The market is recalculating this business in its own way.$ETH once dropped to about $2,668, $BTC fell below $84,000, hitting a low of around $83,908, and even $XAU gold quickly dipped from $4,319 to $4,219. At a glance, it's all red candlesticks, crashing down like a waterfall.🌊🔴 This drop actually didn't exceed my expectations; after key support was lost, market sentiment clearly weakened. Meanwhile, macro data and changes in US Treasury yields may continue to amplify short-term volatility. Going forward, the focus should be on capital flow and trading volume, rather than just the extent of the decline. But now it doesn't matter to me anymore — I've already used up all my bullets.😂 I took profits and exited my $ETH position around $2,706, ultimately securing 223U, running faster than a rabbit!🐇💨 For now, I'll watch and wait, not chasing shorts or rushing to bottom-fish. I'll act when the market offers opportunities; if not, I'll patiently wait. Principal is always more important than emotions, and waiting is part of trading. #BTC #ETH #XAU #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Gold #MarketCrash #DYOR #NFAThe wildly surging meme coin $QNT that many people mentioned today
I consider it a completely different type of asset compared to the current ONDO / LINK / UNI / HYPE.
The fundamentals of QNT @quantnetwork have clearly strengthened recently, but its biggest highlight is not the crypto narrative, but the real adoption of Quant's infrastructure by traditional finance.
The most noteworthy news is from September 24, 2026:
• The Clearing House (TCH) in the US officially announced the selection of Quant to provide core technology support for its on-chain currency initiative.
• The network plans to open to participating financial institutions in the first half of 2027.
• This is not a simple crypto project, but tokenized deposits connected to banks + RTP/CHIPS traditional payment systems.
Quant's role: providing interoperability, orchestration, and transaction management layers.
This is far more significant for QNT than the usual "listing on an exchange / fund buying in" news.
Quant's own positioning is as the interoperability / orchestration layer between the financial system and different blockchains.
On-chain finance is migrating from "crypto-native" to "bank/central bank infrastructure."
And this happens to be QNT's strongest domain.
#QNT #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 📉 Intense macro events next week, Bitcoin faces multiple stress tests
September 28, 2026 — Next week (9.29-10.2) will see a dense release of major data including PCE, ADP, and nonfarm payrolls, combined with Federal Reserve officials' speeches and Micron's earnings report, putting significant short-term bearish pressure on Bitcoin's price.
🗓️ Key event calendar:
9.29 Tuesday 22:00 — JOLTS Job Openings + Consumer Confidence
9.30 Wednesday 20:15 — ADP Employment Data
9.30 Wednesday 20:30 — PCE/Core PCE + Final GDP ⚠️
10.1 Thursday 20:30 — Initial Jobless Claims
10.1 Thursday 22:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI
10.2 Friday 20:30 — Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate + Average Hourly Earnings ⚠️
🔍 Data impact mechanism:
Research by Coin Metrics shows that in the first 30 minutes after employment reports are released, BTC price volatility median is about twice that of normal periods, with core PCE impact closely following. After the September 4 nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, BTC dropped 2.32% within half an hour, with long liquidations around $119 million and short liquidations only $24 million, a leverage cleanup ratio close to 5:1.
📊 Technical position:
Recently, BTC has been pressured at the key on-chain support range of $84,000-$85,000. If this support is continuously lost, $77,000 will become the main reference point for further decline. $DOGE is weak, currently priced at 0.09301, closing close to the low of 0.09251. This downtrend is not over yet. This drop was not actively driven by shorts. Liquidations are almost entirely on the long side, with forced liquidations of short positions so few they can be ignored. The price was pushed down layer by layer by forced liquidations of long leverage. More importantly, after the longs were washed out, there was no decent rebound; the price stayed at the bottom of the range. This indicates that stop-loss orders have all been triggered, but no new funds have come in to take over. The proportion of long accounts continues to decline, and the funding rate remains slightly positive; these two are just background references. The current state is that leverage is exiting, not that someone is taking over the positions. This kind of retreating market lacks the fuel to squeeze shorts. Shorts have hardly been hurt, so there won't be forced buybacks to support the price. Next, it is more likely to repeatedly test around 0.09251, continuing downward to find long positions that haven't been liquidated yet. Conditions for a bullish reversal: the price must reclaim the 24h high of 0.09892, indicating that the squeezed leverage has returned and the weak bias is invalid.Today, I am making an early prediction that the whale will pump the price.
Enter with low leverage long positions.
Today, I have prepared 20,000 bullets and will fight the whale to the end.
Going long on ONE.
Floating profit is just a little.
Position size is not large.
26,400 units.
Low leverage.
Sufficient reserve funds.
ONE has risen from 0.002 to 0.0029.
Up more than 40%.
But this time is different from before.
Previously, it was a violent surge.
This time, it is a fluctuating upward trend.
All three moving averages have turned upward.
A bullish alignment has formed.
This indicates the trend is turning bullish.
Plus, BTC has recently stabilized around 84,000.
Altcoins have a chance to follow the rise.
Not going all in at once.
Entering in batches.
If it pulls back to around 0.0026,
add the first batch.
If it drops to 0.0024,
add the second batch.
If it breaks below 0.0022,
it means the judgment was wrong.
Stop loss and exit.
No stubborn holding.
First target 0.0030.
Second target 0.0035.
Take profits in batches when reached.
Don’t be greedy.
Low leverage.
Able to withstand volatility.
Gradually grind with the whale.
This time, early prediction.
Low leverage long.
Ample bullets prepared.
Enter in batches.
Fight the whale to the end.
But remember,
bullets are fired in batches,
not all in one go.
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The macro test is imminent, and the market has already voted with its feet in advance. Looking at the market, $BTC surged to 87,245 before falling all the way down to 83,108; even the safe-haven asset $XAU gold couldn't hold up, plummeting from 4,388 to 4,182. The simultaneous sharp decline in both risk and safe-haven assets indicates that funds are withdrawing, and the market is frantically trading on "tightening expectations."
Combined with the news, this week is definitely a super data week. The PCE on September 30 and the non-farm payrolls on October 2 will directly affect the Fed's interest rate path. Large funds have obviously chosen to hedge and price in expectations ahead of these key data releases.
Technicals often prove fragile in the face of macro data. This is also the core reason I insist on "not chasing the rally and staying out of the market." Large volatility means large risk; I don't bet on the outcome before the data is released. Waiting for the non-farm payrolls to land and panic sentiment to fully release is my hitting zone.
Continuing to stay out of the market, let the bullets fly for a while. $BTC #cryptocurrency #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Bitcoin has returned to around 84,000.
What’s most interesting now isn’t whether it’s going up or down, but rather—after surging close to 85,000, why hasn’t the market really established a clear direction?
At this point, I’m actually reluctant to chase.
There’s resistance above, and no obvious panic selling below, so the most likely scenario is sideways shaking.
If Bitcoin can firmly hold above 85,000 and not break below on a pullback, this consolidation might be building momentum for the next move.
But if it repeatedly fails to break through 85,000 and instead falls back below 83,000, then the previous surge needs to be reassessed.
Ethereum is in a similar spot, hovering around 2,700.
So what I’m really waiting for now isn’t a big bullish candle, but an action that can confirm the direction.
Chasing after a breakout risks catching the last leg;
panicking after a breakdown risks selling at the bottom.
There’s market action every day, but the real challenge is holding your ground.
Do you think Bitcoin can truly hold above 85,000 this time?
#BTC #ETH #cryptocurrencyThis week's non-pure trading profits also made several hundred dollars
A little deducted here, a little deducted there 🙈
For example: On Sunday morning, I put 6.5 OKB into the LP pool
Because I predicted an overall pullback before the non-farm payrolls
But selling directly only earns the price increase of the coin, and the coins still need to be bought back, so I put them into the LP pool to earn a bit
However, if the LP pool falls below the range, I have to buy an equivalent amount of $OKB, which is impermanent loss risk
So the worst scenario I can accept is buying 6.5 here
This controls the risk within 3% of my total holdings
In the end, besides the $5 LP earnings
I bought back the same amount during today's drop
Realizing profits equals earning part of the price difference
For $xPOPMART, besides swing trading, the part put into the LP pool also earned about 8%
Overall cost is calculated to be about 15% below the current price
X point rewards seem to have separate bonuses in the end
OKX has many generous activities, all knowing the ecosystem is the last shortcoming of OKB, but OKX can easily fix this shortcoming for the exchange, especially since we are already at the start of a bull market
So don't sell any of your OKB
Spot holdings, especially those below 80, are hard to buy again
As crypto investment tools increase, spot is a very important tool for excess returns
I accumulated enough spot and only started contract earnings half a month ago
Using various on-chain yields to open contracts without pressure, this is the Matthew effect, continuous compoundingToday's study insights:
Valuation prediction theory
1. Every asset has a reasonable valuation range
2. Every financial asset has a cycle
3. The core of company valuation lies in profit and PE; PE should be based on the average PE multiple of this sector, and ye only invests in profitable assets
4. The core of valuation is profit + PE; GMV performance growth can be used as an auxiliary adjustment, but only as an auxiliary!
5. Additionally, the moat of the asset is also very critical; an evaluation system should be established for the moat, mainly assessing the difficulty coefficient of it being breached!
PS, for projects or companies without profit, valuation is largely meaningless because they are definitely in a bubble phase; during the bubble phase, the focus is on using limited funds to chase high returns, and remember to learn to give up when the principal used for high returns is at risk! $SNDK The market continues to drift downwards, with BTC falling below 83,000, and ETH and SOL weakening in sync. Before the release of macroeconomic data, funds chose to actively withdraw.
$BTC: Down 1.58%, hitting a low of 82,647, RSI dropped to 35.71 in the oversold zone. On the news front, Omnity Network announced the cessation of its Bitcoin DeFi products, sending negative signals from the ecosystem application side. Technically extremely oversold, but high US Treasury yields suppress rebound momentum, forcing bulls into a defensive stance.
$ETH: Vitalik released an original novel "Snowmoon" and open-sourced it, greatly boosting community cultural output. However, before the market's systemic correction, such news cannot translate into buying pressure, and ETH remains dragged down by BTC in the short term.
$SOL: The largest decline at 2.64%, with direct selling pressure coming from Pump.fun again offloading about $5.83 million worth of SOL. Core ecosystem applications continue to "drain blood," putting SOL under heavier profit-taking pressure than other major coins.
On Wednesday this week, the August core PCE is expected to rebound to 3.4%, and on Friday, non-farm payrolls are expected to plunge to 107,000. Ahead of these two major macro data releases, market risk aversion is strong. Technical oversold conditions do not mean an immediate reversal; wait for the data to land.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $ZEC just saw a whale with a $35M short position exit the trade. 😳 The resulting short squeeze and liquidation wave didn’t stay isolated to $ZEC . It appears to have shaken short-term confidence across the market, with futures short positions reportedly declining by nearly $180M. Here are the key levels being watched: 🔹 $BTC — $81,650 Resistance: $83,800 Heavy selling pressure: $83K–$83.8K Support: $80,200 Major long stop-loss area: around $80K 🔹 $ETH — $2,662 Resistance: $2,750 Profit-taki#高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2027 AI capital expenditure forecast to $1.2 trillion, a 60% increase from about $750 billion in 2026. Where is the money coming from? Equity financing is insufficient, so the focus shifts to bond issuance, SPVs, and asset securitization. Hyperscale cloud providers account for about $600 billion, AI labs and sovereign wealth funds about $300 billion, and enterprises building their own about $300 billion. This means AI infrastructure is moving from the balance sheets of tech giants to the bond market.
Watch IG credit spreads and the issuance cost of AI-specific debt. If spreads widen, computing power expansion will slow down. For the crypto market, AI absorbing liquidity is a short-term pressure, but the reduction in inference costs will accelerate the Agent economy, and on-chain micropayment demand may arrive earlier.The recent market situation is actually quite interesting.
BTC is still fluctuating around $84,000, ETH is also oscillating around $2,700, but what’s really worth noting might not be how much a certain coin suddenly surged, but what’s happening on-chain.
In the past few days, new signals have emerged again connecting traditional finance and the blockchain.
On one side, tokenized stocks and ETFs continue to advance, and U.S. regulators have started discussing rules for trading tokenized securities based on blockchain; on the other side, stablecoin applications are increasingly moving toward real financial scenarios like payments and settlements.
There’s even an infrastructure company that just raised $37 million specifically to build stablecoin payment and tokenized capital market infrastructure.
So now, when looking at RWA, it’s no longer suitable to just focus on "which RWA token will rise."
What’s more worth watching is:
Who is providing the infrastructure for trading, clearing, payments, and asset issuance.
The real big opportunities in crypto often don’t first appear in price but show up first in usage.
This might also be a main theme worth continuously observing in the market going forward. $AAVE AAVE is steady tonight like an old ship. The waves brought by the PCE data are just a piece of cake for it. As the DeFi lending leader, it has gone through countless bull and bear cycles and witnessed the rise and fall of many projects. Last night's good news allowed it to stretch its muscles a bit. Most holders of AAVE are survivors who have been through harsh beatings. They know what true value is and what false prosperity looks like. AAVE's real yield model is a safe haven during macro tightening and a money printer during easing. But I was shorting it and ended up getting squeezed. As an old trader, I know this coin can't be shorted, only held long. Tonight's move can be called "seeking death," painful but profound. $PUMP PUMP's volatility today is terrifying! The Meme sentiment is fading, the shitcoins are going to zero, but PUMP, as a launch platform, still steadily collects tolls. Watching retail investors fight inside, I hold PUMP calmly like a casino owner. Macro turmoil actually drives funds to high-frequency gambling in the Meme casino, aiming for high returns. This "selling shovels" business is actually more stable in chaotic times. But I still lost by going the opposite way, thinking the Meme season was over, only for it to rebound again. As an experienced trader, I know these coins can't be held long-term, only short-term speculation works. Tonight's operation can be called "trying to skin a tiger," exciting but dangerous. The short-term momentum has already weakened. The big BTC almost got wiped out this morning. No need to hold on too much here. Took a small loss of 200 points on BTC and exited, also exited the second BTC position.
Waiting and watching first. If there is no rebound strength later, then follow the trend to short. $BTC $ETH Today's Bitcoin $BTC movement, in my personal view, looks more like a digestion phase following a rapid rise earlier.
BTC previously surged to above $87,000, then steadily fell back, now returning near $83,000. Today's pressure comes partly from a stronger dollar and US Treasury yields, and partly from early profit-taking. The market is currently quite sensitive to the Fed's future interest rate path, with overall risk asset volatility significantly increased.
From a technical perspective, the short-term is indeed weak. The 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages are all above the price, MACD remains negative, and RSI has dropped to around 33, indicating bears currently hold the initiative. However, RSI is close to the oversold zone, so I feel the cost-effectiveness of shorting here is starting to decline.
I am now focusing on $83,000. If this level can hold steady and the price can climb back to $84,000–$85,000, the short-term structure has a chance to repair; but if $83,000 is broken with volume, we need to watch for lower support zones next.
Therefore, I prefer to view BTC now as undergoing a "key pullback after a strong rise." Whether it can regain volume and stand back above $85,000 is more important than simply looking at daily price changes. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 $PENGU PENGU actually performed quite well tonight! As a new coin, it's great not to have any trapped positions. Although the NFT market is generally sluggish, the IP operation of Pudgy Penguins is really impressive. Seeing it resist the downturn against the trend makes me quite relieved. While everyone is selling off old assets, funds are instead willing to speculate on something fresh. The new coin effect offsets some of the macroeconomic negatives, making even an old-school player like me want to join in. But I still lost money chasing the highs; new coins are volatile and can easily trap you. As an experienced trader, I know these coins can't be held long-term and are only for short-term speculation. Tonight's moves can be described as "snatching food from the tiger's mouth"—exciting but dangerous.$AKE Playing these small coins requires a strong mindset. With macro turmoil, big coins fall, but small coins attract funds for speculation, though they're more likely to go to zero. Last night, I lost my mind and thought it could buck the trend and become a dark horse, but tonight it got crushed hard like the nuclear button was pressed on it. As an experienced trader, the biggest mistake I shouldn't make is playing small coins in a downtrend. This is gambling—win and you get a club model, lose and you end up working at a bar. This beating tonight is well deserved. On this night dominated by PCE data and geopolitical tensions, $AKE's performance slaps all crypto players suffering in panic: don't be greedy, greed has a knife hanging over it.$LIT has finally turned the corner. After holding it for so long, it has finally moved from a floating loss back into the profit zone. Although the profit isn't much, at least it's a relief.
It's worth noting that the $LIT holdings this month have nearly halved, which is quite a noticeable change. Regarding the previous surge, could it have been a pre-pump followed by a gradual realization of profits? It's too early to draw a direct conclusion, but the subsequent capital flow is worth monitoring.
If the overall market trend reverses later, theoretically $LIT still has a chance to push toward around $2, but this depends on the overall market environment and whether trading volume can support it.
Looking at $XPL, it rose about 30% during the unlocking period but then clearly pulled back. My view remains cautious: a significant number of tokens were released this time, and there are still ongoing unlocks ahead; it’s not a one-time event.
If the project team or early holders continue to sell after unlocking, and the market lacks sufficient buying power, the price may not crash suddenly but could gradually decline due to thinning liquidity, with sell orders outweighing buy orders causing continuous drops. During the unlocking period, what really needs attention is not just the price but more importantly the actual selling pressure and the market’s ability to absorb it.
$PIEVERSE has shown strong performance since its launch. I previously opened a short position, anticipating a possible short-term pullback. I have currently secured about 14 points of profit and am not in a hurry to exit, continuing to observe whether this correction can extend further. $XLM XLM's drop tonight leaves me helpless. Stellar Lumens, a payment concept, but its ecosystem has long withered. Macro turmoil, capital abandoning this old brand. High interest rates suppress transformation projects. My biggest mistake was putting too much faith in "payment"; in the face of macro trends, all payments are history. Capital is fleeing, who still cares how fast your transfers are? This loss tonight is a lesson for me, an old retail investor: when the trend is wrong, effort is wasted. Stop bottom fishing; that's what bag holders do. Looking at the candlestick chart, I seem to see the steadfastness of XLM holders, but such steadfastness looks especially tragic in a downtrend.美伊继续磋商，霍尔木兹开放条件成了“罗生门” 私信炸了，都在问法老，美伊这霍尔木兹的谈判怎么越谈越像罗生门？ 法老直接说，伊朗说“你松手我7天就开门”，美国说“我不急，先耗着”，两边各说各话，谈判桌上的菜还没上齐，筷子先打起来了。 先看伊朗开的条件。 伊朗外长阿拉格齐在联大期间通过卡塔尔向美方转达了一份“7天计划”——美国先解除海上封锁、停止军事压力，伊朗就在7天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。阿拉格齐强调，这些条件不是新要价，是6月谅解备忘录里美国自己答应过的，伊朗“绝不会退让”。 但特朗普直接拒绝了。 特朗普26日称，美方完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡，大量石油正在流出，美方“不急于求成”。美国官员还补了一刀，说过去48小时已有近4000万桶石油在美国护航下通过了海峡。翻译成人话就是：你开不开门我都过得去，我干嘛要答应你的条件？ 市场反应很诚实。 伊朗提议一出，油价深夜跳水，WTI跌2.33%到92.41美元，布伦特跌2.14%到104.32美元。但周末美国拒绝方案后，油价又被拉回区间偏强震荡。比特币这边，9月23日美伊会谈传出积极信号时，大饼在87,200附近横盘Lang Lang Sharing｜September 27 Review 📊
Today's small profit +110U, with about 6900U added this month, just one step away from the 10,000U goal. Only 3 days left until the end of the month, keep steady! 💪
The weekend market was generally volatile, with few truly worthwhile opportunities to act on, so today I only participated with a small position, taking a little profit and stopping. When the market offers no chance, staying out is also a trading skill; don’t trade just for the sake of trading.
$SUI and $ETH are still held as planned; I won’t exit lightly before the target is reached, patiently waiting for subsequent structural changes.
Many people can’t help but want to trade as soon as they open the market, fearing missing out, but frequent trading often gives back previous profits bit by bit. Trading doesn’t have to happen every day; what really matters is waiting for opportunities that meet your criteria.
When there’s a chance, try small positions to test; when there isn’t, observe patiently. Controlling position size and emotions is more important than chasing every profit.
Latest market focus:
• #BTC spot ETF has seen nearly $3 billion net inflow for 7 consecutive days, keeping liquidity active
• US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, pressuring market financing costs and risk appetite
• Micron’s earnings report is approaching; AI storage demand and related guidance may become market highlights
It’s okay to slow down; protect your principal and profits first to go further.
The above is only personal trading review and experience sharing, not any investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #SUI #Crypto #TradingBitget's official website has set the pace: CEO Gracy and Greater China head Xie Jiayin will hold at least a two-hour AMA first, followed by Bitcoin network withdrawals reopening half an hour later; ETH and USDT will be queued afterward.
After the theft, about 387.5 million USD was verified, and the protection fund says it can cover it; trading and deposits have not stopped these days, only withdrawals are blocked. Feeling for the brothers still stuck with withdrawals, let's first see if the official side can deliver as promised.
Whether the gate opens smoothly, how long the queue will be, that's the next question.Exchange $350 million abnormal transfer, surprisingly not first discovered by the exchange》
On September 24, Bitget suddenly experienced a large abnormal transfer.
Initially, on-chain researchers found:
Several addresses belonging to Bitget were frantically moving money out.
At that time, some thought it was just internal wallet scheduling by the exchange.
But the more they looked, the more something seemed wrong.
Assets like $ETH, USDT0, and others were successively concentrated into one address.
External on-chain analysts first detected the anomaly, and then Bitget's CEO confirmed that some hot wallets had unauthorized transfers.
The disclosed affected amount was about $351.6 million.
Bitget stated that cold wallets and user funds are safe and suspended withdrawals for security checks.
But what really interested me was not "being hacked again."
It was another question:
Why do many exchanges’ abnormal fund flows often get detected first by on-chain detectives?
Because the blockchain has a very peculiar characteristic:
Money doesn’t disappear just because the company’s PR department hasn’t issued an announcement.
As long as a transfer happens,
the address, amount, time, and route
are all recorded on the chain.
So now a very strange scenario appears:
The exchange is still investigating what went wrong internally,
while on-chain analysts are already mapping the fund flow with wallet addresses.
This is also the most contradictory aspect of the crypto world:
On one hand, it claims anonymity, privacy, and that no one knows who you are;
On the other hand, once you move money on-chain, possibly the whole world is watching how far your money travels.
So what’s really worth watching in the future is not just:
"How much money the exchange was hacked for."
But rather:
Who discovered it first?
Where did the money go first?
Why did the attacker choose this wallet?
Did it eventually flow back into an exchange?
Sometimes, whether the hacker gets caught is unknown.
But how their money moves,
the blockchain has already kept the ledger for you.📉 What goes up long enough must come down, and these four words have been brutally proven true this time!
$ETH crashed all the way down to 2668,
$BTC fell below 84000, hitting a low of 83908,
Even $XAU gold couldn't hold, dropping sharply from 4319 to 4219.
The screen is full of big red candles, everything is red.
Honestly, my previous risk assessment for this wave was not wrong.
But the most painful problem is — I got the direction right, but I was out of ammo.
Earlier, I took profit on my $ETH short near 2706, finally securing 223U, running faster than a rabbit.
But shortly after closing the position, the price directly dropped to 2668.
Looking back now, it’s a bit heartbreaking.
I personally gave the fattest chunk of profit back to the market.
Just now, seeing that gold’s downward chop like a guillotine, I even put my hands on the keyboard, thinking about opening another short.
I had already entered the quantity.
In the end, I quietly deleted it.
It’s not that there’s no opportunity,
But — I really have no position left.
My principal is still tied up in several positions that haven’t broken even, so I simply can’t free up funds.
This is the most frustrating part of trading:
Correct judgment ≠ making money.
The market opportunity comes, but the account has no available chips, not even the qualification to sit at the table and bet.
It’s like a weather forecaster who accurately predicted heavy rain today but forgot to bring an umbrella.
Now I’m too lazy to look at those flashy indicators anymore. $BTC $ETH market today!!!
BTC fell 1.44%, not without reason.
What the market is really worried about are two "nuclear bombs" this week:
September 30, 20:30: August PCE
Inflation continues to cool → interest rate pressure eases → risk assets catch a breather.
Inflation remains stubborn → high interest rate expectations rise → BTC under pressure.
October 2, 20:30: September Nonfarm Payrolls
Employment too strong, interest rate pressure hard to ease;
Employment too weak, recession worries return.
Not to mention the Fed officials' intensive speeches this week, macro expectations could be repriced at any time.
BTC now is no longer just an asset that looks at halving and on-chain data.
US Treasury yields, the dollar, interest rate expectations, liquidity—all directly transmit to the crypto space.
So don’t rush to bet on direction these days.
PCE watches inflation, Nonfarm watches employment, wait for the data to land before seeing how the market prices it.
Trading doesn’t always require guessing right,
Survive first, then wait for certainty.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #FinancialReportObserver: Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand becoming the focus. Micron is about to release its earnings report, and the market is treating it as a thermometer for AI capital expenditure. The core focus is not just the simple revenue figures but HBM shipments, AI storage orders, and management's guidance on industry supply and demand. Key metrics to watch: 1. Data center business revenue and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) revenue growth. HBM is a core component of AI servers, directly reflecting the purchasing strength of cloud providers and AI giants for computing power. The market is closely watching the mass production progress of HBM3E and HBM4, as well as the fulfillment expectations for supplying Nvidia's next-generation platform. 2. Gross margin. Last quarter, Micron's gross margin surged to 84.9%, and the market expects it to remain high; any decline in gross margin would directly trigger concerns that the storage price hike cycle has peaked. 3. Long-term strategic supply orders (SCA). Previously, Micron signed multi-year volume lock agreements with several cloud and AI companies. The earnings call will focus on new orders and customer demand outlook to verify whether AI storage is a structural growth rather than a short-term pulse market. 4. Management guidance: Judging how long the storage supply-demand tightness can be maintained is key to determining the valuation of the storage sector. Three scenario simulations ✅ Earnings far exceed expectations: HBM shipments, revenue, and gross margin all meet or exceed targets, with an upward revision of next quarter's guidance. Storage and AI chip sectors collectively strengthen, the Nasdaq risk appetite rises, driving a rebound in risk assets like BTC and ETH. ⚠️ Meets expectations: The market mainly fluctuates, with positive factors already priced into the stock price, allowing The third gold short after the holiday, 17 points, all three trades closed in profit
In the afternoon, gold reached 4198, continued to short.
At 4181, took profit as planned, pocketed 12,100 oil.
17 points range, close the position when the target is reached. Someone asked: Three short trades in one day, aren't you afraid of a sudden rebound?
Not afraid. The direction hasn't changed, the signal hasn't changed, so just keep following.
If the signal changes, I change accordingly, no stubbornness, no holding losing positions, no emotional trading.
Take as much as the market gives.
Enter when there's a signal, exit at the target. Not touching any profit beyond the plan. $XAU #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #Funding Rate Observation
Even with the same price increase, the level of crowding in the futures market can be completely different. This morning, SUI, NEAR, and SOL provide a very intuitive comparison.
As of 08:55 Beijing time, OKEx USDT perpetual data shows: SUI at $1.2734, up about 9.35% from the reference opening price 24 hours ago, with a current funding rate of 0.01%; NEAR at $5.342, up about 5.89%, with the same funding rate of 0.01%. SOL is at $122.02, up about 1.09%, but with a negative funding rate of -0.00248%. The next funding rate settlement time for all is shown as 16:00 Beijing time.
If these rates hold until settlement, SUI and NEAR longs will pay shorts, while SOL is the opposite. This does not mean SUI and NEAR are topping immediately, nor does it guarantee SOL will catch up; a more reasonable interpretation is that the long demand for the first two is more clearly reflected in the contract costs, while SOL’s position sentiment remains cautious despite the price rise.
Going forward, I will watch both price and funding rate: if the price continues to rise but the positive funding rate quickly increases, it indicates rising costs for chasing longs; if the price stalls and the funding rate falls, it means crowding is easing. Looking only at price gains can easily confuse strength with crowding, but funding rates help you separate the two.
$SUI $NEAR $SOL