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This sharp pullback is being blamed on surging oil prices triggered by renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. But beneath the surface, excessive leverage had also built up, and this correction is flushing it out.
In a way, that’s a good thing. In a choppy market, longs get liquidated first, then shorts. The overall uptrend remains intact.$BTC $ETH Today is Sunday, got up a bit late. There’s no major news worth deep analysis overnight. The three major mainstream markets remain steady like old dogs, indicating that market confidence is slowly recovering.
Although today marks the one-year anniversary of the 10/11 crash, it currently seems to have no impact.
BTC rebounded from 80400 to around 82993, with moving averages starting to converge and tilt upwards; ETH rose from 2406 back to 2506, and SOL also bounced from 105.71 to around 110. The rhythm of the three major mainstream coins is basically synchronized.
My personal view:
① There is capital support at low levels, and the bears’ selling pressure has weakened.
② Weekend liquidity is thin, so volatility is more likely; don’t expect a one-shot reversal.
③ A rebound does not equal a reversal; the key is whether the price can break through the resistance above.
Here is my trading plan:
$BTC
Consider light long positions at 82500-82700, stop loss at 82000; resistance at 83500, 84000. Observe shorting opportunities at 83800-84000, stop loss at 84500.
$ETH
Consider long positions at 2480-2490, stop loss at 2450; resistance at 2550, 2600. Observe shorting opportunities at 2560-2580, stop loss at 2620.
$SOL
Consider long positions at 108.5-109, stop loss at 107; resistance at 112, 115. Observe shorting opportunities at 112.5-113, stop loss at 114.5.
No trades over the weekend for now. BTC needs to hold above 84000 before discussing a counterattack; if it can’t hold, the rebound may turn into a pullback at any time.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
It's not a party exit, it's ETH validators lining up to leave.
At the end of September, 166,000 ETH exited the queue; on October 2nd, it surged to 851,000, a 5-fold increase.
By October 6th, there were still 786,000 ETH queued to exit, with a two-week lock-up period — a large portion of this is MetaMask withdrawing Lido validators, not all are selling off, but the queue itself is killing sentiment.
Even worse for institutions:
BlackRock ETHA saw nearly $500 million net outflow in one week, US stock spot ETH ETFs had net outflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling nearly $700 million, with ten funds not seeing a single day of net inflow.
Whales are withdrawing, funds are redeeming, validators are lining up.
ETH has already broken below the 50-day moving average, structure weakening. Below 2374 there are nearly $700 million long liquidations pending; breaking through would trigger a real stampede.
Others are still waiting for a rebound, but those lining up to exit are already changing seats.
$BTC $ETH 主流链上分析（Santiment）把 ≥1000 BTC 的地址定义为BTC巨鲸（鲸鱼） - 最新统计：2044个地址 ≥1000 BTC，合计持有约717万枚BTC，占流通量接近36% 但是！地址 ≠ 真实独立的人/机构，这个是最容易踩坑的地方： 里面包含：交易所冷钱包、ETF托管地址、平台储备钱包，不是全部个人大户。比如一个交易所可能有好几个这种巨鲸地址，其实属于同一家机构。 更细的分层（另一种细分口径） - 鲨鱼：1000–5000 BTC - 鲸鱼：5000–10000 BTC（狭义whale）≈100多个地址 - 座头鲸（超级巨鲸）：＞10000 BTC，不到100个地址，这里面就是MicroStrategy、美国政府、早期巨富、大托管方这一档 两个关键误区 1. 没法精确知道真实“鲸鱼人数”：一个人可以控制几十个钱包；一个钱包也可能是很多用户的钱（交易所），链上只能数地址，分不清背后实体。 2. 不同平台门槛不一样：有些媒体宽松一点，把≥100 BTC就叫大户，这个口径数量会涨到接近2万个地址，不能混为一谈。 简单一句话总结 按圈内最常用的1$STRK woke up from just over five cents to a bit above ten cents, rising 40% in 24 hours and doubling and a half in a month—but this rise has nothing to do with fundamentals; it's the narrative pricing it.
On October 8, the official Twitter said "considering switching to L1 and becoming the first quantum-resistant network." There wasn't even a plan, just consideration, yet the price took off. Single-day trading volume surged to over $400 million, nearly five times the usual, accounting for almost 80% of market cap. This is a heavy chip relocation, not just holding back supply. On-chain, the same day saw net spot inflows to exchanges, meaning coins were moving onto sell orders, indicating distribution at high levels.
Even more hollow is the usage: daily active users are just over 4,000, with a market share of only a few tenths of a percent in Layer 2. The price doubled but no one is using it on-chain. The Korean market led the rally, with kimchi premium turning positive—a typical retail sentiment-driven move.
On October 15, there was another unlock, not large but hitting at a high sentiment point. The price has broken through previous resistance zones and the structure is strengthening, but momentum is weakening in the short term.
Looking ahead, watch two things: whether the narrative materializes into a formal proposal, and whether the high-level net inflows turn into sustained selling pressure. Until then, this token's rise is a story, not a ledger. Crypto funding conditions weaken (Grade A): The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $485 million on October 7, the largest since June 25, with a total weekly outflow of about $679 million and nearly $1 billion in October, reversing the inflow of about $2.65 billion in September; the US government wallet transferred out 12,267 bitcoins (about $1.01 billion) to a new address on October 8 (Grade A transfer, presumed sell-off), and Bitcoin briefly dropped to about $80,500 (Farside, CoinDesk, PANews).[Xiao Ming's Market Watch]
Xiao Ming straightforwardly says that the US's current approach is "treating the symptom, not the cause" — using Russian oil to cover the diesel shortage for now, but the Horn of Hormuz issue remains untouched.
First, let's look at how "pragmatic" the US-Russia deal is. On the 9th, Trump and Putin had a phone call and finalized a diesel supply arrangement: Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to the US and global markets, 500,000 tons in November, and another 1 million tons thereafter. The US Treasury simultaneously issued a license, relaxing sanctions on Russian diesel trade, effective until April 2027. The US diesel retail price just hit a record high of $6.52 per gallon in September. Trump couldn't wait and decided to cover the domestic shortage with Russian oil.
Russian diesel can ease the US refined oil shortage but cannot bypass the Horn of Hormuz bottleneck. Iran remains tough; a Revolutionary Guard advisor declared: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and illegal shipping lanes will soon be shut down until Iran's demands are met.
What does this mean for crude oil? Short-term sentiment is somewhat bullish, but don't celebrate too soon.
After the US-Russia diesel deal, oil prices briefly fell and inflation expectations cooled, giving risk assets some relief. But US-Russia cooperation is merely a "tactical exchange of interests" and does not change the structural contradictions in the global energy game. The hard bottleneck at Hormuz remains, and the geopolitical premium on oil prices could return at any time.ETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, and it is distinguished from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications in the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets into dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold tens of thousands of retail investors’ funds (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many real independent “people” are whales. A simple comparison with the BTC you just asked about - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,$MAGIC has been playing the contract market way too smart these days, I’m watching the charts and can’t help but laugh and cry 😂 Have you ever seen the same candlestick where both longs and shorts get liquidated, and yet the coin price still rises by 65%? It took off from around 0.064, surged all the way to 0.163, with an intraday peak increase of over 150%. Then, it immediately fell about 35% from the peak. The most ridiculous part is, after all that turmoil, it still closed up 65% within 48 hours. This structure isn’t simply a bull’s frenzy or a bear’s nightmare; it’s more like a machine designed to harvest emotions and leverage. Early chasers might have caught a big chunk, latecomers ended up standing by, those who shorted early got swept away by the initial surge, and when the price rose to a point where no one dared to doubt it and they shorted again, they were saved a little by the subsequent crash—but their positions were already gone. What really matters to me isn’t how much it rose, but what happened on the derivatives side. Such a sharp rise followed by a steep drop usually means crowded leverage is being continuously flushed out. The violent swings in funding rates make both longs and shorts uncomfortable; after open interest piles up at a high level, a quick pullback can trigger a chain of liquidations. On the surface, it looks like price volatility, but underneath it’s position turnover, with sentiment shifting from greed to fear and then back to hesitation. The slightly bullish logic is that after such a level of shakeout, if the price can hold steady and lift the lows again, it indicates that spot support isn’t weak, selling pressure is absorbed, and the market may enter a healthier upward rhythm. Also, maintaining a 65% gain over 48 hours shows that the market’s risk appetite for this small-cap asset is still there, and the narrative hasn’t completely died out.$CHIP $STRK Last night, I made two waves of profits filling the dip, earning up to 150, but the third wave was directly blown up by a pullback. Rolling positions is indeed fun, but you must be mentally prepared to lose everything. In the end, I had no choice but to add 200 RMB to restart, and after waking up, the profits came back again.I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is top-notch. Just after lunch while watching the market, $LPT had a pitifully small rebound volume and was pressured from above—a typical situation where no one picks it up on the way up. I advised to short in batches.
From 1.845 to 1.773, a return of +78.04%. This wave was worth the wait, feeling great brothers. The repeated oscillations earlier were really frustrating, but coming out of it feels really good. The short position finally gave the answer.
First, close 80%, pocket the main profit; keep 20% at cost price for protection. Take profits when you should, there will be more opportunities, don't be greedy for the last bit. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give it back.
Hold as long as the trend is intact; if it breaks, exit. Don't fall in love with the market. For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, don't chase if you miss it.
The market is not short of opportunities, but patience is lacking. Move only when the next signal comes. Waiting for good news.
$DOGE $XRP I reviewed the account of boss Eleven; in 30 days, he earned 2.05 million U with a win rate of 77.88%, but the maximum drawdown was 33.7%.
Just looking at the return rate, you'd think he has a high chance of winning. Actually, no—he relies on losing fast.
The only losing trade was $ETH, which also best illustrates the issue. He went all-in with 30x leverage, opened a long near 2,634 ETH, 1,883 units, and two minutes later at 2,617, he cut it off, losing 21,300 U, a return rate of -12.73%.
Two minutes, 30x leverage, all-in. Such a trade would liquidate if delayed by a second. He dares to open it, but even more so to admit the loss.
$BTC is the opposite. He opened a short at 80,860, 100 BTC, held it for two full days, closed at 80,712, only making 5,230 U, a return rate of 1.91%.
Following the trend, taking small profits, not greedy at all. The 30x leverage only cost 1.9%, indicating he seeks certainty, not huge profits.
$ZEC was a short at 1,472, 2,000 units, isolated margin 5x, earning 7,520 U. Shorting zec down is straightforward.
The key point: for the same short position, BTC uses full 30x leverage to bet on the main line, while altcoins are downgraded to isolated 5x. Risk is very cleanly isolated; no matter how altcoins spike, the main account won't burn.
So the real value of this account isn't the 2.05 million, but this leverage tiering system—heavy on the main line, light on altcoins, and immediate admission of mistakes. Doppelganger detection is the last line of defense, not a dual-machine hot standby license.
Some validator clients provide Doppelganger detection: after a new instance starts, it remains silent briefly to observe whether signatures from the same validator have already appeared on the network. If another instance is still active, the new instance will stop to avoid conflicting signing messages from both. This feature is helpful for migration mistakes, but it can only try to detect and cannot guarantee capturing all duplicate instances.
Network latency, peer connections, and observation windows all affect the results. To complete detection, validators will temporarily miss some attestation or proposal opportunities, incurring a small reward loss.
This cost is usually far less than slashing but indicates it is not a cost-free permanent high-availability solution.
The truly safe approach remains to confirm the old client has completely stopped, import slashing protection records, and then start the new environment. Doppelganger protection is suitable to catch the last human error, not to be treated as a coordinator allowing two machines to compete simultaneously for signing. Seeing "absent" before detection ends should not prompt hastily disabling protection. $ETH staking requires redundancy, but redundancy should be in monitoring, networking, and backup hardware—not duplicating active signers.@天晴 ETH The clearest stance in this situation is to continue viewing the Ethereum pullback as an opportunity to build positions in batches, rather than switching to outright shorting due to a short-term drop. But his bullish view has a time scale: a rebound is possible in the near term, a mid-term retest might still happen, and the long term is where he aims to catch the big move. These three judgments together are not contradictory. The real contradiction is holding a long position intended for months but judging success or failure based on a few dollars' weekend fluctuation; or misreading "long-term optimism" as "fully invested now, with a rise tomorrow." First, looking at $ETH. 天晴 believes this pullback cannot simply be said to be fully complete yet. For a higher and faster rise later, at least one condition must be met: a deeper pullback or a longer sideways consolidation. Neither is sufficient if it just dips a bit and bounces back; he tends to see this as a consolidation repair rather than an immediate signal to break through 4000. The scenario he presents is that if the price further approaches 2000 and consolidates at a low level for a longer time, chip turnover and leverage clearing could be more thorough, potentially allowing greater room for subsequent rises. He mentions 6000 as an imagined stronger scenario, not a definite target for this phase, nor a guarantee of a short-term rebound. Conversely, if next week the daily chart quickly recovers without sufficient pullback or consolidation, he believes the upper side may first encounter new downward pressure around 2600 to 2700. Therefore, the bullish direction and the price process must be separated: he is optimistic about future opportunities but does not expect the process to be smooth. Regarding position sizing, he discusses batching, not all-in.$BTC is showing an extremely fragmented phenomenon on the chart. On-chain data shows that coins are decreasing, but the price is just stagnant.
【Where did the coins go?】
The total BTC reserves on exchanges have dropped to about 2.68 million, hitting a new low since September 2023.
Binance has seen an outflow of over 40,000 coins in 15 days, with withdrawal speed the fastest since June last year.
Logically, tightening supply should support the price. But BTC is still hovering around 83,000, direction unclear.
【Incremental funds are retreating】
Since October, the combined net outflow of US spot BTC and $ETH ETFs has reached nearly $986 million!
Fidelity's FBTC saw a weekly outflow of nearly $200 million, BlackRock's IBIT only had an inflow of 22.38 million, unable to absorb the selling pressure.
ETH ETFs are even worse, with nine consecutive days of net outflows totaling 569 million.
Even with tight on-exchange chips, without off-exchange funds coming in, it's still hard to rise.
【Security incidents shake confidence】
Ledger experienced a security incident where hundreds of user wallets were stolen, with losses exceeding $86 million. Even cold wallets are no longer absolutely safe, shaking the faith of long-term holders.
👀 The Federal Reserve is very likely to hold steady in October, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains at 83.7%. The market is cautious. Next week's CPI release will be the key moment for a breakthrough.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #跟着OKX打卡2049 [Market Analysis: Early Bull vs Dead Cat Bounce]
In the current market, the most intense debate between bulls and bears is: "Is this really the early stage of a bull market, or the last Dead Cat Bounce of the previous bull run?"
Why do these two opposing views coexist? Because everyone is looking at completely different data layers:
Bulls (Early Bull camp):
• On-chain chip transfer: institutions are accumulating heavily, retail investors are exiting
• Indicator health: MVRV-Z / NUPL are at historical mid-low levels
• Exchange BTC inventory continues to hit new lows (spot selling pressure is scarce)
Bears (Dead Cat Bounce camp):
• Macro pattern has not formed a higher high (Lower High)
• Timeframe suppression: traditional 4-year halving cycle bear market correction pressure
• Macro high interest rates and institutional de-risking outflows
Trader's SOP response:
No matter how the market moves, don’t bet on predictions. Lock in hard stop losses to guard against Dead Cat Bounce, move stop to breakeven after a +5% rally, then track the main uptrend with the 15m EMA9!
For detailed comparison, see the attached chart 📊👇
#cryptocurrency #bitcoin #tradingstrategy #quantitativemanagement "Token Unlocking Is Not a Verdict"
Token unlocking is often misinterpreted as a countdown to sell-off, but in reality, it only changes "who is eligible to sell," not "who actually sells." $SUI has a cap of 10 billion, but the cap does not conflict with circulating supply growth; the market prices the currently circulating tokens, not the total supply stated in the whitepaper. The arrival of new supply is more like a demand test: can usage, staking, and holding willingness absorb it? The answer is not found on the calendar.
$WLD uses tokens to incentivize users, which can expand participation but does not necessarily increase buying pressure. Receiving tokens and buying tokens are two different actions. If growth depends on rewards but real usage lags, network activity and token price may diverge.
$ARB’s linear release is a supply arrangement, not a directional signal. Expectations are often traded before unlocking, and the actual impact upon receipt may not be strong. However, "all bad news priced in" does not automatically mean good news. It depends on how much the price has dropped before, and how many tokens enter exchanges and get traded after release.
The calendar can only mark when disposal rights take effect, not predict disposal behavior. Unlocking is not a sell order, and demand cannot be conjured out of thin air.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC average Q4 return is +62.6% but the median is only +6.56%.
The last one is the number I’d keep in mind after a quarter like this.
$BTC just gained 42.6% in Q3 and ETH 70.9%, while total crypto market cap expanded by ~$823B. pretty strong reset after the weak first half.
Now seasonality will probably become part of the Q4 bull case again.
But a few exceptional years have pushed BTC’s historical average far above what a typical Q4 actually delivered.
$ETH shows a smaller gap: +18.6% Woke up to collect profits! Applying to join the short squad, altcoins will eventually go to zero!
The market is slightly in the green, but there's one guy shining red, that's $MAGIC from yesterday's gainers list.
This morning I saw it surged over 60%. I initially went long and made 6U profit but didn't exit in time. Then it crashed, I set a stop loss and lost 3U before exiting. I reversed to short, and by evening when it was still up 17%, my unrealized profit shot up to 17U! I sold some then.
This morning I saw it dropped 8% again! Wow, woke up and made money again, feeling great.
I always believe all altcoins will go to zero. Although there will be big rallies in between, the end result is still zero; that's the fate of all altcoins.
Yesterday, CAP was second on the gainers list and surprisingly didn't crash. I'll keep an eye on it; once it rises a bit more, I'll short it.
Today on the gainers list there's $CHIP, an old acquaintance. Seeing it up 30%, I shorted it directly. Now my unrealized profit is 0.6U. I plan to hold it for another day because these coins keep dropping then rising, dropping then rising. I feel I can still make money this way.
As for others, like my short on $LAB is still stuck, so I'll just hold it for now.
The short squad will definitely win!
Good morning, genius traders. Low volume on the weekend doesn't mean short positions are safe. When the price grinds up little by little, it's easier to make people reluctant to exit than a sudden sharp rise; the real danger is when a previously broken support area is reclaimed. @张教主。 The core of this judgment on $BTC is not "the weekend will definitely see a drop," but whether the area around 83000 can hold. He is still watching for downward opportunities after a pullback rejection, but repeatedly reminds: if the daily candle closes back above the key area, especially if the next close remains above, the original bearish logic must be reassessed. You can't expect the market to behave as predicted just because you've already opened a short position. First, watch the 83000 watershed. His analysis revolves around two dense trading zones: below is the concentrated chip position formed when the price rose from around 82800, and above is the concentrated trading area left from previous volume spikes during pullbacks and retests. Over the weekend, the price slowly pushed up from below, testing the resistance above. Which side can hold the price is more important than the color of the few small candlesticks right now. If the upper resistance holds effectively and the price falls back near 82800, he will be more convinced this is just a pullback and that bears still have room to push lower. Conversely, if the price breaks through and stabilizes above the upper dense trading zone, you can no longer interpret every rise as "about to crash." Previous weak signals could be overturned by a strong recovery. He pays special attention to the daily close. The last daily candle closed below the key area, which once made him think the pullback rejection signal was clear; but over the weekend, the price slowly ground back up, changing the situation. Market$BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $484.9 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day outflow since June 25. BlackRock IBIT reversed from a net inflow of $118.8 million the previous day to an outflow of $207.7 million, which is the most notable; all 12 related ETFs recorded outflows, a complete wipeout, with concentrated selling pressure released.
The withdrawal of funds from $ETH is not a sudden single-day event; it has been continuously bleeding for 7 consecutive days, with a cumulative outflow of about $569 million. BlackRock ETHA saw an outflow of $116 million, Grayscale ETHE an outflow of $25.76 million, showing stronger persistence and signs of medium- to long-term capital migration.
$SOL experienced a total outflow of $17.7 million over three days from October 5 to 7, with its price pressured around 116. However, its on-chain fundamentals have moved in the opposite direction, with network size growing 124% since September and an average daily addition of 1.71 million wallets. The fundamentals are improving while funds are flowing out, creating a very striking divergence.
ZEC# also faced a redemption wave, with ZCSH seeing a single-day outflow of $18.66 million. The product size has fallen from a peak of $900 million to around $750 million. Once a popular target, it has now entered a phase of continuous redemptions.
The multiple rifts between capital and fundamentals are a very typical feature of the current market. We will continue to track changes in capital flow going forward. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #AI and Quantum Threats: How Will Blockchain Security Upgrade?
The whole network is shouting about the quantum doomsday: Bitcoin can be broken in 9 minutes, 6.9 million coins exposed, countdown to 2029. The louder they shout, the more I want to laugh—because the real thing to panic about, they haven't mentioned a single word.
OpenAI recently released a batch of AI math achievements, 722 manuscripts covering hundreds of unresolved problems, including ones at the level of the quasi-Riemann hypothesis. But the truly explosive point in the crypto world is strange: among these results, cryptography is the only area missing. Then internal news broke out—major AI companies have already started self-checking whether their large models can break modern cryptography. This is the real meaning of the "cryptography crisis playing out early": quantum still requires specialized machines, AI is ready-made, general-purpose, and accessible to everyone.
Google has actually been quite honest about the quantum calculations: breaking 256-bit elliptic curves requires fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, about 20 times less than previous estimates, theoretically able to break Bitcoin signatures in 9 minutes, putting about 6.9 million BTC at risk. It sounds close, but today's fastest quantum hardware is still about two orders of magnitude away from 500,000. Turning the "theoretical limit" into "exploding tomorrow" is just media chasing traffic.
So security upgrades shouldn't be scheduled based on "when quantum arrives," but rather on "math possibly being overturned by AI" for redundancy. Signature schemes should switch to NIST-standardized PQC (ML-DSA/SLH-DSA), hash widening; ETH's roadmap has weekly devnet updates, BTC is still arguing over soft forks—the slowest part is never technology, but consensus.
Watch two signals: whether quantum hardware reaches 500,000 physical qubits, and whether AI's mathematical breakthroughs can truly be replicated in cryptography. Whichever comes first is more useful than the "2029 doomsday" headlines.
$BTC, $ETH Why are altcoins getting harder and harder to sell? Simply put, market makers have all gone back to Bitcoin and Ethereum, where the order books are very thick. On the small coins side, buy orders are getting thinner year by year, and once the price drops, it goes straight down with hardly anyone to catch it.The probability of a rate hike was 70% a week ago, now it's 20%.
The CPI for October 14 hasn't been released yet, but the market has already relaxed.
How is this number calculated: a drop in probability does not equal the Fed turning dovish.
Most officials still believe there may be another hike before the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs raised its expectation from one hike to two after Waller's speech.
Where is the money coming from: In the first week of October, the US spot $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 681 million.
$ETH ETF outflowed 542 million, totaling over 1.2 billion combined.
On October 7 alone, $BTC ETF outflowed 484.9 million.
When funds are flowing out, price rebounds are just corrections.
$BTC pulled back from 80400 to 82600, with 83500 to 84000 still not broken through.
$ETH bounced from 2406 to 2501, held down at 2579, with 2400 as the short-term bottom line.
If CPI is below expectations, a pause is confirmed; if above expectations, a December hike is basically set.
Guessing the bottom before the data comes out is meaningless.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $ETH **Breaking News**:
- Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia attacked again; Trump says the US may join the fight against the Houthis
- US and Russia reach diesel supply agreement; Russia partially lifts export ban
- 10Y US Treasury yield broke **5.4%** intraday on 10/7 (highest since 2002), PIMCO warns it may hit 6%
- **Important entity correction**: Trump is investigating Federal Reserve Board member **Lisa Cook** (not Apple CEO)
**ETF fund flows** (10/9): BTC spot ETF net inflow of +$21.1 million, ETH spot ETF net outflow of -$56.1 million (9 consecutive days, totaling $697 million) Is the crypto market turning weak? Three signals determine the next move
Recently, BTC and ETH spot ETFs have stopped attracting funds and turned to net outflows, with institutional buying clearly cooling down. ETH is especially under pressure, and the market is beginning to worry about the short-term liquidity and the stability of the bullish structure.
The derivatives side is also not easy. BTC financing rates are close to zero and may even turn negative, indicating a decline in leveraged long enthusiasm and an increase in bearish sentiment. But negative financing is not a crash guarantee; it’s more like a sentiment thermometer.
More caution is needed for altcoins. Futures open interest for SOL, XRP, HYPE, etc., is high, and crowded leverage can amplify price swings. If spot demand continues to weaken, long liquidations may trigger a chain of declines; but excessive short concentration could also cause a severe short squeeze.
Next, watch three things:
1. ETF funds: Can BTC and ETH return to net inflows?
2. Financing rates: Will negative values persist, confirming bearish positions?
3. Open contracts: Is leverage still accumulating when prices are weak?
Potential reversal scenario: If $BTC ETF inflows resume while financing rates remain negative, it means spot buyers are stepping in and derivatives shorts are holding firm. If prices rise and spot volume expands, the reversal is more credible.
Strategically, don’t chase breakouts or blindly short due to weakness. Wait for price confirmation and follow the flow of funds and leverage. The Fed minutes were hawkish, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield directly to 5.36%, the highest since 2002! Risk-free returns are too attractive, and risk assets can only take a hit.
Let's see how the major coins have been smashed:
$BTC: Fell below 83,000, bottomed at 82,360, down 2.6% in 24h. Watch for support at 82,500 first, with 80,000-82,000 as the next defense line; break below means stop loss priority.
$ETH: Lost 2,600, bottomed at 2,543, plunged 4.2%. Long positions liquidated $236 million, fueling the network-wide red candles. 2,510 is the lifeline; decisively reduce positions if broken.
$SOL: Broke 115, down about 2.6%. A light short position near 120 on a rebound is possible, target 114.
Hawkish expectations combined with rising US Treasury yields triggered a long squeeze; sentiment is extremely fragile. 120,000 people suffered heavy losses; don't rush to bottom fish! #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ETH currently lacks directional views, what it lacks are verifiable conditions.
Scenario one: Break through 2,519.51 and hold, indicating the continuation of a strong bias structure. Scenario two: Fall below 2,488.63, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price 2,507.89, about 0.77% away from the 1-hour support at 2,488.63, about 0.46% away from resistance at 2,519.51. 1-hour is biased strong, 4-hour biased weak, RSI are 64 and 69 respectively. Volume is 0.50 times, currently only responsible for providing clues, not for drawing conclusions about the price.
With these two scenarios presented, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Don't rush to bottom-fish before Monday's open.
$BTC has been stuck below the daily EMA20 for two days, currently around 83030. It failed to break 83530 on Friday and spent the weekend grinding between 82280–83080.
Daily chart: EMA20≈83110, Bollinger middle band≈84100, lower band≈81700; 4-hour EMA20 is still below EMA50, the trend correction isn't finished.
Daily forecast:
• If it can't reclaim 83100 → expect bearish consolidation, first target 82280, if broken then look at 81700
• If it holds above 83100 and closes above 83530 → then consider recovery to the middle band 84100
Funding rate is slightly negative, don't interpret this as a bullish short squeeze. $BTC $ERA is getting stronger and stronger, so why focus more on the support
$ERA 24h +17.68%, current price 0.0772. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 33 and 80 respectively. The strength is real, and the crowding is real too. The question is not whether it can continue to rise, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
The opposing side also has clear invalidation lines. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 0.0667 indicates short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 0.06, the previous strong or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can stick to your view, but you can’t pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
This analysis will be reviewed based on two conditions, not just screenshots when the result is correct: whether the price first handles 0.1137, and whether 0.0667 can hold during the pullback. The former answers if there is relay above, the latter answers if the support is real. The next update will only check if these conditions are met, without new stories to excuse old judgments.
Think of this market move as equipment acceptance testing: running without load is not completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to the conclusion. Write your views as conditions so you know where you were wrong if you are. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: is this a normal overheating of a strong trend, or has the risk already run ahead of the space? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.$ETH currently lacks directional views, what it lacks are verifiable conditions.
Scenario one: Break through 2,519.51 and hold, indicating the continuation of a strong bias structure. Scenario two: Fall below 2,488.63, invalidating the short-term logic.
Current price 2,507.89, about 0.77% away from the 1-hour support at 2,488.63, about 0.46% away from resistance at 2,519.51. 1-hour is biased strong, 4-hour biased weak, RSI are 64 and 69 respectively. Volume is 0.50 times, currently only responsible for providing clues, not for drawing conclusions about the price.
With these two scenarios presented, do you think the upper confirmation or the lower invalidation will trigger first?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.41 trillion USD debt pressure: Which defense line will break first among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SanDisk?
The U.S. Treasury Secretary personally confirmed that the U.S. national debt has surpassed 41 trillion dollars. The fiscal consolidation plan will only be announced after the midterm elections, so don't expect policy support in the short term—the debt issuance must continue, and yields will still rise.
Bitcoin is currently priced at $82,800, having pulled back from $80,500 yesterday and then trading sideways. With 41 trillion USD debt pressure and the 10-year yield still high at 5.36%, it is extremely difficult for risk assets to strengthen independently. $16 billion in options expire over the weekend; if $83,000 is not reclaimed, a further dip is very likely on Monday.
Ethereum is weaker. The ETH/BTC rate has fallen to 0.030, hitting a new low, with funds continuously concentrating on Bitcoin, marginalizing Ethereum. Whether 2,500 can be reclaimed depends entirely on Bitcoin's performance.
SanDisk followed the U.S. stock storage sector's sell-off yesterday, dropping from 1,692 to 1,590. The higher the U.S. Treasury yields, the more expensive tech stocks get hit first. SanDisk has risen nearly 600% in a year, and its pullback is decisive. The NAND price increase logic remains intact, but short-term chasing is not advisable.
In short: The 41 trillion dollar hole cannot be filled in a day. Until then, cash is safer than positions.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 😓 Took another short position again. Just got schooled hard by $MAGIC yesterday, and today I’m about to get taught a lesson by $STRK.
The exact same pattern, almost the same short squeeze rhythm.
Yesterday’s $MAGIC short, entry average price 0.10946, the coin price surged all the way up, with 20x leverage the position’s floating loss directly shot to -907.49%. This kind of violent pump in altcoins lasts only about ten minutes, and the crash is even more extreme, hitting down in just one minute.
Yesterday I was lucky, had enough margin, held through the pressure without liquidation, and finally broke even.
But whether I can have that luck again today, I really don’t know.
No matter if I break even or unfortunately get liquidated at the end of this trade, after it’s over, I plan to rest for a few days, take a break, and calm down to adjust my state.
Two consecutive waves of extreme market conditions have me on edge; I can’t keep pushing through like this.
Trading doesn’t require being in the market all the time; stopping when you’re not in the right state is also a choice.
I feel this method still doesn’t suit me, losing more than winning. Luckily, I started with small capital; if it were a large amount, I would have been liquidated long ago.
So position sizing must be reasonable. Play within your own tolerance.
😊 Next, I’ll continue to look for methods with small capital, aiming to find a foolproof strategy. Just want to have a cup of milk tea every day.
⚠️ The above is only a personal trading review, not investment advice. Altcoin contracts are highly volatile and risky; profits and losses are your own responsibility.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "CT: Don't Mistake Hype for a Buying Opportunity"
CT has high discussion volume, but candlesticks don't lie. On the 4-hour chart, after 0.63868 it has steadily declined, with moving averages in a bearish alignment—MA5, MA10, and MA20 all exert layered resistance. The RSI is low, indicating oversold conditions but not necessarily a reversal. The 0.31132 level is a critical lifeline: holding it means consolidation and bottoming; breaking it opens room for further decline. The 0.336–0.355 range above is a dense resistance zone.
On the 15-minute timeframe, after a sharp drop to 0.31132, a rebound appeared with RSI approaching 76, entering overbought territory and momentum starting to fade. This looks more like a technical correction after a big drop rather than a trend reversal. The closer the rebound gets to resistance, the more caution is needed against a pullback.
Therefore, now is not suitable for chasing longs. The real focus should be on 0.31132, not the hype. Hype is emotional fuel, not a reason for price increase. New coins are volatile, rising fast but falling even harder. If you want to participate, keep a light position and use stop-loss; if you don't understand, staying out is also a position. This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $CT #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $DOGE The market is too fragmented! 🧐
The number of bulls and bears looks like copy-paste, but the amount of positions held tells a completely different story.
On the bear side, orders are thick and chips are heavy, like a group of whales quietly stabilizing the ship; on the bull side, small orders are dense, like retail investors holding torches rushing into the night.
Equal numbers don’t mean equal strength. 💰
One side has heavy artillery, the other a slingshot; one controls pricing power, the other only provides liquidity.
Candlesticks never listen to "more people," they only recognize "more money." 📊
When the average short position leaves the longs far behind, it means the main force has already written the direction into the chips.
Don’t be fooled by "crowds and noise," the noise is often just the background music for those taking the losses. 🎭
In this situation, the bulls are like building sandcastles on the beach, while the bears are driving bulldozers over them.
Following the trend isn’t cowardice, it’s seeing clearly who’s dealing the cards. 🃏
If funds keep pressing shorts, any rebound might just be an opportunity for bears to add positions.
Don’t squeeze in with retail investors as fuel; stand on the side with heavier chips. 🐋📉
The market has risks, don’t get carried away, but the direction is dictated by money. ⚠️#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
"Uptober" has completely failed this year.
Historically, BTC's median gain in October is 14%, but this year?
It dropped from 87,000 to 80,300, then bounced back to 83,000, and the monthly candle is still red.
I think the analysts are right: liquidity and the macro environment are more important than seasonal patterns.
Whether October rises or not, don't look at the calendar, look at CPI, ETFs, and US Treasury yields.
Don't blindly believe in Uptober.
The market is always harvesting those who cling to outdated methods.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $MAGIC The reason Bitcoin couldn't drop originally was because the US stock market was quite strong.
But this week, as the US stock market pulled back, Bitcoin immediately dropped 7%.
It has dropped to this point now.
And now the US stock market is at a critical point making a choice.
If the Nasdaq index here is a major false breakout,
then for the crypto world, it would be the beginning of a disaster.
Meanwhile, as NVIDIA has already made a false breakout and started to distribute downward,
I also entered short positions on $NVDA and $US100 this week.
And the crypto market's $BTC and SOL short positions
are not planned to take profit here.
I believe the answer will come next week,
especially next Wednesday and Thursday are critical.The market is trading two things. One is who will speak first next Wednesday, the Q3 earnings report or the inflation data. The other is the pricing of specific stories. SpaceX acquired the nationwide 800MHz low-frequency spectrum for about $8 billion, directly hitting the three major telecom giants. Verizon fell nearly 9%, one of its worst single-day drops since 2002; T-Mobile dropped 13%, and AT&T also fell nearly 10%. Tower companies, on the other hand, rose because they might have an additional tenant. On the same day, Humana surged over 11% due to a significant improvement in Medicare Advantage star ratings, becoming the absolute leader in the healthcare sector. Apple fell because of reports that it cut about 15%-20% of component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro series; the pressure from memory price increases and terminal price hikes is beginning to show in demand. Tech stocks were knocked down by AI revenue expectations on Thursday, but most tech stocks bounced back on Friday. However, the S&P is just one step away from the historic high set earlier this week and has never truly broken through. High yields, high oil prices, the upcoming earnings season, and CPI pressures all remain. The consumer confidence index dropped to 46.3, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Monday is Columbus Day; the stock market will open normally, but the bond market will be closed. The earnings season officially kicks off next week with bank stocks. What the market fears most now is not a drop, but that no one dares to believe even when it rises. $BTC $ETH $MAGIC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
ETH had a rough week. ETH ETFs saw an outflow of 1 billion USD in one week, and BlackRock's single ETHA fund withdrew 477 million USD in one week.
What's even more heartbreaking is that Vitalik himself came out to say: if the ETH roadmap doesn't integrate AI, it will stagnate by 2040.
Wow, even the founder is anxious. Capital is voting with its feet, pulling out from ETH to chase the AI concept.
I think 2500 is the short-term ceiling for ETH. Without ETF inflows, ETH can't rise. In the long term, it depends on whether Vitalik can tell a convincing AI story.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $MAGIC BTC 82,842｜Rebound Faces Resistance, 83K Has Not Truly Held Yet
BTC rebounded from around 80K and returned to the 83K area, but the upward momentum is currently limited. After losing 83K previously, this level has shifted from support to a threshold that needs to be reclaimed; if it can hold and break through 84K, there is a chance for further rebound to around 85K. Otherwise, it may continue to oscillate between 81K and 84K.
Key contract levels to watch are 82K–84K: holding 82K and reclaiming 83.5K–84K would indicate further recovery of the rebound; if it falls below 82K and the bounce is weak, attention should be paid to 81K or even around 80K. Rebounds after sharp drops tend to repeatedly trigger stop orders, so do not rush to go long just because the price rises, nor blindly short near support.
The funding side still faces pressure. The US spot BTC ETF saw net outflows on October 7 and 8 totaling about $731 million; meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields are also suppressing risk asset sentiment. Currently, it looks more like a repair phase after a decline, requiring clearer signals from both price and funding.
Whether 83K can shift from resistance back to support is key to judging if the rebound can continue.
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Altcoins keep coming one after another, but only Ethereum stands firm.
But if you think carefully, is it really standing firm?
When the market rises, it bounces a little; when the market falls, it crashes even harder. This is not strength, it's lack of direction.
Two signals make me increasingly uneasy.
First, BitMine is going to stop increasing its ETH holdings. It holds 6.016 million coins, accounting for 4.9% of the circulating supply, just 100,000 coins short of the 5% limit, expected to hit the ceiling in 6 to 7 weeks. It used to be the most stable buyer, but now it’s stopping, meaning the demand side loses a major buyer. More troubling, it has an unrealized loss of about 4.5 billion on its books, and the market is starting to worry it might turn into selling pressure.
Second, the validator exit queue has surged fivefold. On September 29, about 166,000 coins were queued to exit; by October 2, it rose to about 851,000 coins, with an exit wait time close to two weeks. A large amount of staked ETH is about to unlock, increasing supply and reducing demand.
The macro environment doesn’t support it either. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.33%, the 30-year is 5.715%, and the dollar index stands above 102. Money is getting more expensive, and risk assets are under pressure. The September minutes show most officials think another rate hike before year-end is appropriate.
My short position at 2671 has a floating profit of 605%. Resistance is at 2530-2550; any rebound is an opportunity to add to the position. Support is at 2445, where there are 252 million long liquidations; breaking this could trigger a chain liquidation.
Buying is stopping, supply is coming, and rate hikes are not over. Tell me, what will make ETH rise?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
Brothers, the prediction market just released a figure: the probability of BTC falling below 80,000 in October is 67%.
Wow, two-thirds of people think it will still drop? Analysts also say that 72,000 to 77,000 is the real support.
I believe that although historically BTC has averaged a 14% rise in October, the macro environment is different this year.
ETF outflows continue, US Treasury yields remain high, and seasonal patterns don’t work well against macro headwinds.
Whether 80,000 holds depends on next Tuesday's CPI. If the data is good, 80,000 is the bottom; if the data is bad, 77,000 will be seen.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $MAGIC Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$MAGIC decline accompanied by position reduction, with buying and selling nearly balanced at the end. Price -4.19%, open interest -2.21%; volume 3.809 million USDT, 4.2 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous hour. At the end, active buying was 44.3%, with the price down 4.69% during this period.$BTC inflow of 20 million, $ETH outflow of 56 million
US spot $BTC ETF ends continuous withdrawals.
Single-day net inflow of 21.13 million USD.
Where did this money come from:
BlackRock IBIT bought 22.38 million.
By deduction, others are still selling.
How is this number calculated:
$ETH had a net outflow of 56.1 million.
For the 9th consecutive day, the main player is BlackRock ETHA.
The same company is buying $BTC while selling $ETH.
The amounts are not large, but the directions are opposite.
Before $ETH outflows stop, this level of $BTC inflow can't support much.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC $ETH Mainstream coins showed no movement over the weekend, and many friends started targeting altcoins, but my advice is to hold back!!!
Top five gainers: $MAGIC, $O, $XDP, $OP, $FIL. $MAGIC led with a 26.08% increase, clearly driven by short-term capital; O rose over 10%, with sentiment following the trend; $XDP, $OP, and $FIL rose in sync. $OP and $FIL are established hot coins with sector memory support, while $MAGIC and $O have relatively weak fundamentals.
Overall, this round is a short-term rotation of existing funds, not a trend reversal. Altcoin rallies cash out very quickly; their liquidity pools are far shallower than mainstream coins like $BTC and $ETH, and also less than popular recent altcoins like $ZEC, making volatility risk much higher. Before the market shows a clear direction, blindly chasing highs can easily lead to short-term traps. Prioritize trades with certainty; rather than gambling in chaotic altcoin markets, it’s better to patiently wait for clear signals from mainstream coins, control your position size, and avoid short-term bull traps.
The above is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC at this position looks more and more off.
The resistance at 83,500 is very strong; every time it rebounds and touches that level, selling pressure immediately appears, making it hard to break through directly. The support between 82,000 and 81,500 is somewhat holding, but support doesn't mean a solid bottom, just that it hasn't been broken yet.
Most likely, the price will continue to oscillate within a range: pushing up to trigger stop-losses on short positions, then dropping to trigger stop-losses on long positions, with wicks poking around to make you doubt everything, giving a false impression of an imminent breakout and surge. This kind of market is the most frustrating, as positions can't be held and both sides get hit.
Once the sentiment is exhausted and strength is depleted, if 81,000 breaks, the downside space will truly open up.
$BTC $ETH🚨 The 24-hour liquidation map is here! $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $ZEC — which one will break first?
Here's the conclusion for the bros: There's significant long liquidation pressure below, but that doesn't necessarily mean the price will drop first; the key is who breaks through first!
📌 Key liquidation price levels for the four coins
🟠 $BTC current price 82946.7
Above 83889.98, short liquidation of 23.2786 million;
Below 82214.94, long liquidation of 29.3155 million.
🔵 $ETH current price 2504.5
Above 2521.78, short liquidation of 15.5934 million;
Below 2471.44, long liquidation of 16.9815 million.
🟣 $SOL current price 110.05
Above 111.28, short liquidation of 4.0381 million;
Below 108.96, long liquidation of 3.2572 million.
🟢 $ZEC current price 1220.62
Above 1249.94, short liquidation of 1.0772 million;
Below 1200.44, long liquidation of 1.2565 million.
My view: Focus on $BTC at 82215 and 83890, and $ETH at 2471 and 2522. The long liquidation amount below is larger, but that doesn't mean the main force will necessarily dump; if it breaks upward, it could just as well trigger a short squeeze.
Don't just guess the direction based on liquidation amounts; wait for the price to truly break through and confirm stability before taking action.
Do you think $BTC will break below 82215 first or surge above 83890 first? Take your side in the comments!Nadella said AI models should be treated as "insiders" to be guarded against.
First reaction: Is this big shot scared by his own product?
Looking closely, the meaning is actually simple: don’t just trust the model developers’ promises; permissions, logs, and brakes all have to be controlled by yourself.
In plain terms, no matter how smart AI is, it can’t be allowed to manage itself.
What does this have to do with the crypto world?
I guess those coins hyping AI concepts might need to tell a different story.
Before it was "I integrated the strongest model," but in the future it might be "I can lock it in a cage."
Newcomers often make the mistake of rushing in when they see "Microsoft CEO talks about AI."
Actually, they’re discussing enterprise risk control, not issuing coins.
First, watch for whether any projects later use "AI security" as a new narrative.
If yes, then talk more. If not, just treat it as noise.
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ $ZEC October 11 Morning Session｜OKX Spot 08:05 (Beijing, USDT)
After an overnight surge, divergence occurred; the three coins remain below the daily 20 moving average.
BTC 82,995 (24h +0.49%), 1-hour recovery; volume breakout above 83,169 targets 83,530, failure below 82,931 targets 82,767.
ETH 2,506 (+0.80%), 4-hour 20 moving average at 2,508 remains a threshold; if stabilized above, target 2,519, if below 2,503 target 2,495.
ZEC 1,222 (+1.48%), retreated below the 1-hour and 4-hour 20 moving averages; reclaiming 1,229 targets 1,242, breaking below 1,217 targets 1,203.
The last 3 closed 1-hour K-line volumes are 126%, 68%, and 162% of the previous 3 respectively (for the three coins in order), the incremental decline in ZEC volume is worth noting.
Farside's latest complete ETF data still belongs to US Eastern 10/9: BTC net inflow $21.1 million, ETH net outflow $56.1 million. Related hot discussions are old events: minutes released Beijing 10/8, ETF large outflow belongs to US Eastern 10/7.
Plugin shows ZEC 10x perpetual short positions, with a new card at 08:04; BTC and ETH no detectable sharable positions. US stock market closed Sunday, short positions should also guard against rebounds. For market record only. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Morgan Stanley participated in the 2026 Hot Chips conference, where many major players unveiled their new technologies and new chips.
Morgan Stanley's views on this are:
① Agents as AI inference intelligent entities have fundamentally changed chip design.
② With continuous demands for performance and cost-effectiveness, custom chips will gradually take center stage.
③ AMD's Instinct MI400 series and Helios rack solutions will form strong competition against NVIDIA's Vera Rubin architecture.
④ Network layering technology continues to develop; NVIDIA introduced the "Scale-in" layer through BlueField-4,
while Broadcom launched the Thor Ultra AI Ethernet card based on enhanced RoCE technology to support horizontal scaling.
⑤ HBM remains the main bottleneck; almost all exhibited categories at the conference rely on HBM.
⑥ Broadcom is deeply involved in OpenAI's Jalapeno ASIC, Meta's MTIA ASIC project, SambaNova's RDU (ASIC) project, as well as Ethernet technologies for vertical and horizontal scaling (including Broadcom's Thor Ultra 800G Ethernet card showcased at the conference), proving that Broadcom is playing an increasingly key role in the AI custom chip field.