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A burn sounds impressive when you see the number by itself, but context matters. $CORE has a total supply measured in billions of tokens, so the real question isn't: “How much was burned?” It's: “Is the amount burned actually greater than the amount being added to circulation?” That's the part many people leave out. 🔥 Burns reduce supply. 🔓 Unlocks add supply. If scheduled unlocks continue to exceed the number of tokens being permanently removed, circulating supply can still expand despite theI'm Cige. Next week, markets will get the September meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Everyone will be looking for clues about the next move in interest rates. But I wouldn't overestimate the minutes. The key issue is simple: The minutes describe a decision made weeks ago — while the market is trading today's data. Since that meeting, US employment data has weakened significantly. September payroll growth came in at just 29K, while unemployment rose to The 0.16% life-or-death line, BCH and SOL both doubled, this market has my heart about to stop!
Brothers, checking my account late at night, I was almost sent off by these red numbers. Although the account is in the red, my heart is panicking. $BCH and $SOL are really fighting hard, but they have also pushed me to the very edge of the cliff.
Position update:
BCH: The true war god! Full position 10X, entry 261.02, mark 317.89, unrealized profit +177.04U, ROI as high as +178.68%! From almost zero in the deep water zone to nearly doubling now, I have truly and clearly written this "living on the edge of death" script!
SOL: Absolutely the main force! Full position 20X, entry 115.63, mark 121.80, unrealized profit +163.39U, ROI +101.47%. The trend remains strong, firmly supporting the account's base.
$ETH: Still that stubborn drag, full position 5X, entry 2718.24, mark 2697.90, slight loss -16.54U (-3.77%), completely ignoring it. $ETH $SOL $BCH
To speak from the heart: the two main positions combined have an unrealized profit of over 340U, with returns both over 100%, doesn't that feel great? But just one glance at that line — overall margin ratio, 0.16%!
What does 0.16% mean? This isn’t just walking a tightrope, it’s dancing on the Grim Reaper’s desk! 0.16%, brothers, if the market shakes even a little, or a tiny needle is inserted, this 300+ U profit along with the principal will instantly evaporate, and you might not even get time to close the position!
Having gone from 0.39% to 0.29%, and now down to 0.16%, I’ve completely transformed from the terror of "waking up at midnight to check forced liquidation" to now "selective blindness." As long as I don’t look at that ratio, I pretend this position doesn’t exist! Anyway, the profits from BCH and SOL are thick enough, at worst I just pretend this round never happened; as long as I don’t get liquidated, I haven’t lost yet!
Every time I’m crazily testing the edge of the cliff, this is probably the truest portrayal of a contract gambler.
Brothers, do you think this 0.16% position can still be held? Should I cut positions immediately to save my life, or keep my eyes closed and play dead to gamble on a big bull market?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 As the lights come on, directly facing the long and short battles on the market.
In early October, $JTO repeatedly tested the low points without breaking, with volume shrinking on the pullback and expanding on the rebound, improving the volume-price structure. Opened a long position at 0.5518 with 50x leverage, seizing the opportunity of the bottom reversal.
The position's floating profit is 103.29%, with a mark price of 0.5632; the planned rebound rally has been realized as expected.
Short-term bullish momentum has somewhat diminished, with increased long-short divergence; the market may retest support on a pullback, so blindly adding positions is not advisable. $ETH $SAND #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Lately, I've been paying less attention to just the price changes of BTC and ETH.
Instead, I first look at one data point:
Has the liquidity of Stablecoins returned?
The latest data shows that the total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $310 billion again, with over $1 billion in liquidity added in a short time.
For me, this is more worth focusing on than daily price fluctuations.
Because often, before the market starts moving, the funds have already begun to flow.
So recently, when looking at hot topics, I always first pay attention to:
• Whether Stablecoin is continuously growing;
• Whether on-chain transactions are increasing in volume;
• Which sectors are starting to attract funds;
• What large wallets have been doing recently.
I usually check these data first on Ave.ai.
Price tells you what has happened in the market.
Capital flow often tells you where the market might go next.
When you look at the market recently, do you pay more attention to candlestick charts or capital flow? Bro, look at the daily chart first. 👀 $3,000 isn't just another number. There’s a huge amount of historical supply sitting around that area. ETH previously fell from roughly $3,400 to $1,700, leaving plenty of holders who never got a clean exit. So what happens if price finally returns to $3K? Some trapped holders may simply think: “I'm finally back to breakeven — sell.” That creates overhead supply. And if leveraged traders pile in around the obvious resistance, volatility can become even moreThree Key Questions About ETH
What’s most worth watching about ETH right now isn’t whether it’s up or down, but this: the price is approaching a critical level, but are volume and capital really keeping pace?
First question: Why is the price stuck around 2700?
ETH is currently about $2700, up roughly 0.6% in 24 hours, but there’s still clear resistance between $2775 and $2800. Without volume support here, a breakout would have limited significance.
Second question: Is the market actually adding positions?
The total open interest in contracts across the network is about $18.9 billion, with no significant increase in the last 24 hours; funding rates are also close to neutral. Simply put, both longs and shorts remain restrained, with no side clearly rushing ahead.
Third question: Why is capital somewhat fragmented?
This year, ETH spot ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of about $1.5 billion, but recently some ETFs have experienced outflows, indicating that long-term capital interest remains, while short-term capital hasn’t continued chasing prices.
So the core contradiction for ETH today is clear: the price is holding, but volume and positions haven’t expanded in sync.
Key resistance above is at $2800, with support in the $2610–$2650 range.
What’s really worth watching tonight might not be which way ETH moves, but which side first rallies volume and capital together.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ETH 🔥BTC Evening Watch｜No guessing on rise or fall, wait for confirmation
$BTC is fluctuating around $84,800, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $9.5 billion, and market sentiment remains greedy.
Funds have not formed a unified force; although there are still buy orders for the spot ETF, incremental inflows have slowed.
Bulls are waiting for a strong volume to hold above 87,000 to open up upward potential; bears are closely watching the 84,000 support—if volume breaks down below it, short-term bullish confidence will be damaged.
No need to bet on direction in advance; focus on volume-price resonance: 84,000 for support, 87,000 for breakout quality. The consolidation pattern continues, and the bull-bear battle is just beginning. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceThe enthusiasm of large institutions buying BTC has cooled down. Last week, $2.39 billion entered the market, but early this week it has dropped to about $83 million, showing a significant shrink in inflows. Institutional funds in ETH have retreated for three consecutive trading days, totaling about $118 million, and SOL has also seen small outflows.
A ledger shows where the money went this week. On Wednesday, institutions sold about $149 million, bought back about $103 million on Thursday, and made a small purchase of about $31.7 million on Friday. ETH has had net outflows for three consecutive days, with no obvious capital return.
In short, after BTC rose to $85,000, institutions did not chase to accelerate buying; the upward momentum is still insufficient. To hold steady at $87,200, large institutions need to make substantial new purchases.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Brothers, today when I opened my account, I finally breathed a sigh of relief. At last, I don't have to endure that torment of half seawater and half flame anymore. Both long and short positions on BTC and ETH turned green, and DOGE's short position barely held steady. Overall floating profit is over 100 U. This rally in the market finally let me have a taste of the soup. Position update: $BTC: Finally the tough big brother! Full position 20X leverage, entry price 84,407.31, mark price 84,886.50$ETH is all about sideways consolidation and holding the base positions.
According to the cycle, this time is also close to the bottoming phase and the start of a bull market.
But I still want to wait; the market often surprises before consensus is reached.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Why does weak subjectivity require a recent checkpoint?
Proof of Work can compare historical chains based on cumulative work, but Proof of Stake must guard against a special case: early validators who exit and withdraw their stake might still use old keys to forge a long alternative history. New nodes that have been offline for a long time only see the signatures themselves and may not know that these signers have already exited, so a recent state confirmed by multiple parties is needed as a synchronization starting point.
This state is the weak subjectivity checkpoint. Nodes first confirm that a certain recent state root belongs to the recognized main chain, then independently verify subsequent blocks from there. It does not rely on a company telling the network the answer every day, but acknowledges that after long offline periods, a small amount of social information must be obtained. Multiple clients, block explorers, and independent nodes can cross-check to reduce the risk of a single source acting maliciously.
For the security of $ETH, weak subjectivity is not a hidden flaw but an explicit handling of the long-term attack surface in Proof of Stake. Node operators should know where the checkpoint comes from and avoid trusting only one download source; ordinary holders should not misunderstand it as the network being arbitrarily decided by humans at any time. Trust is limited to the synchronization entry point, and after entering the correct history, nodes still verify independently according to protocol rules.$PEPE
Near flat price, why can't a low unit price reduce risk?
The 24-hour range observed today is 0.000004218—0.000004334, with a window change of about +0.14% and a trading volume of approximately 6.04 million USDT.
Near flat price does not mean there is no risk in between. A low price per coin does not reduce the percentage loss of the same amount of capital, and the number of coins held has no necessary connection to profitability.
If it subsequently breaks above 0.000004334, holds on a pullback, and trading volume cooperates, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 0.000004218 and the rebound cannot recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.$BTC at 85,000 is like a heavy brick pressing down, making it hard to breathe.
BTC is now fluctuating between 84,800 and 85,300, rising 0.2% to 0.8% in 24 hours, seemingly red but actually treading water. The 24-hour range is 84,513 to 85,409, a swing of 900 dollars in a day, with the market holding its breath for a big move.
Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 82.9 million dollars this week, a cliff-like brake compared to 2.39 billion the previous week, with enthusiasm cooling faster than the coin price. On October 1, it rebounded with 102.7 million, and on October 2 added another 31.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in 195.6 million, while Fidelity's FBTC ran 60.7 million in the same period. Money is rotating within ETFs rather than net new inflows.
The real variable is macroeconomic. September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, cooling market bets on further rate hikes in October. The Nasdaq even hit a new intraday high. Although this is positive, BTC didn’t follow, indicating this is a "bearish exhaustion sideways" phase, not driven by buying pressure.
The short-term hard resistance is at 85,409, and support at 84,513 is the last line of defense. Breaking below 84,000 would break this sideways range downward. The government shutdown is entering its second week, nonfarm data is all guesswork, and the direction is like a blind box.
BTC stuck at 85,000 is like pressing the wrong elevator floor button—no momentum going up, unwilling to come down, just waiting for the wind to blow. $SAND has been a bear's ATM these past two days! 50x short positions grabbed 169.33%, precisely shorted at 0.08061, current mark price 0.07786, the entire drop was eaten up!
The trading logic is very clear: resistance at the 0.08 round number, a double top formed on the daily chart, volume shrinks and breaks support.
The real background is that the metaverse concept has cooled recently, the overall market is weak, and SAND is falling in resonance with the trend.
Next, it is recommended to take profits in batches between 0.075-0.077, don't get attached with 50x leverage, secure your capital and set stop losses.
If it rebounds to 0.08 but fails, you can keep a base position; if it breaks down, then wait and see. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ZEC $BTC #贝森特：The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend
Core two-layer market logic
1) Traditional bearish logic (mainstream)
Global yields rise together → risk-free returns increase, raising the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies, suppressing risk asset valuations, funds favor bonds, overall bearish for the crypto space.
2) Special hedging logic (differentiated scenario)
If the market interprets: global sovereign debt pressures increase simultaneously, sovereign credit collectively questioned, triggering currency devaluation trades, funds flow into hard assets like Bitcoin for hedging, which is bullish for BTC.
Breakdown by coin impact
Bitcoin BTC
• Benchmark beta asset.
• Scenario A (market accepts Besent’s view): excludes US sovereign crisis narrative, returns to rate tightening logic → bearish, under pressure and correction.
• Scenario B: market focuses more on global synchronized high rates and global debt pressure → hedging logic effective, BTC has safe-haven buying, oscillates and resists decline.
Ethereum ETH
More elastic than BTC.
• If yield rise dominates the market, ETH falls more than BTC;
• If hedging narrative develops, ETH’s rebound will also be stronger than BTC.
• ETH is also dragged down by ETF outflows, facing greater upward resistance.
ZEC (privacy coin) double overlay
1. Macro level: follows the overall market; under rising rate environment, small coins face more selling pressure than BTC and ETH.
2. Additional constraint: global yield rise = Europe tightening too, EU regulatory scrutiny on privacy coins will tighten simultaneously, adding another layer of regulatory risk suppressing ZEC.
Three scenario forecasts (reference for gains/losses)
Scenario 1: Market accepts Besent’s view (highest probability)
Market understands: it’s just a global interest rate cycle, not a US debt default.
• BTC: oscillating weak, -2% ~ +1% range, hard to rally strongly
• ETH: -3.5% ~ +1.5%, more volatile
• ZEC: -5% ~ +2%, high risk of sharp dips
Overall: oscillating weak, rebound height limited, difficult to have a strong one-sided rally
Scenario 2: Ignore reassurances, trade global debt risk (low probability bullish)
Market focuses on “all global sovereign yields rising,” trading sovereign credit risk.
• BTC: +2%~+5%
• ETH: +3%~+7%
• ZEC: +4%~+9% (small coin most elastic, but quick rise and fall)
Scenario 3: Yields continue to surge rapidly (clear bearish)
Long-term yields continue to break higher, liquidity tightening expectations strengthen.
• BTC: -4%~-7%
• ETH: -6%~-10%
• ZEC: -8%~-14%, privacy small coins suffer the steepest sell-off
Summary subjective view
Besent’s speech mainly serves to dispel the “US debt crisis” bullish narrative, without changing the reality constraint of high interest rates.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC On the surface, it's all about buying, buying, but my portfolio is reminding me not to be led astray by the hype. When good news is so dense it's tempting to grab it, the real question is: Can my current risk budget withstand a fake breakout? The news I saw today is indeed impressive. Visa stablecoin's annualized settlement volume has surpassed $20 billion; the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are about to release September meeting minutes, and position reports show 57% are optimistic. BlackRock's IBIT bought $1.57 billion worth of BTC in one month, with total holdings exceeding 800,000, and US spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $82.9 million this week. Large funds hoarded 75,000 BTC in 30 days, with over 40,000 transferred out of exchanges. Citi also raised its 12-month target from 82,000 to 113,000. But when I stared at these numbers, my first reaction wasn't chasing, but checking where I might have made mistakes. The logic of a bullish bias is smooth: supply is tightening, institutions are accumulating, sovereign funds are even selling gold for BTC, sentiment is warm but not extreme. Under this structure, pullbacks are easy to be bought out, and altcoins may lag behind BTC and ETH because funds prioritize certainty. But the risks are also hidden here. ETF inflows are weekly data and may fluctuate midweek; 57% optimism means expectations are partially priced in; if the minutes are hawkish, short-term drawdowns will be rapid. Large transfers out of exchanges are not all hoarding; they may also be custody migrations. Citi's target price is 12 months, not next week. So today I only do three things: - Cut my positions on high calls in half, leaving ammunition for pullbacks.Even though it's all an increase, some coins have already regained lost ground, while others are still far behind, meow 😼.
$TAO's recent performance is like this: although the price has returned to around 306, with a nearly 5% increase in 24 hours, looking strong, if you extend the timeframe to a week, the increase is actually only about 2%. Comparing these two numbers side by side makes the logic behind it very clear: this shows that TAO actually experienced a significant pullback in the past few days, and only just barely recovered the weekly-level decline on the most recent day.
This rebound strength is indeed commendable, indicating that there is capital supporting from below. However, saying that the next major upward wave has already started is still premature. For the upcoming market, what deserves more attention is not how fast it rises, but whether the price can steadily hold at this relatively higher level after the upward momentum slows down. If the market stalls and the price quickly falls back, giving up all the gains, then this rise at best is just a "dead cat bounce" type of rebound, not a true reversal. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 According to data from the past 10 years (2016 - 2025), Bitcoin's average increase in October is nearly 18%.
If calculated based on this average, from the current position, roughly $8,300 - $86,000, theoretically it could reach around $98,000.
However, in these ten years, the only Octobers with significant surges were October 2017 and October 2021.
October 2017: +47.8%
October 2021: +39.9%
The years with slight declines were only October 2018 and October 2025.
October 2018: -3.8%
October 2025: -3.7%
The 10-year average is pulled up by those two big surge years.
In most other years, the average increase is only about 10%.
This October has just started, and the third quarter already surged over 42%.
Meanwhile, the spot ETF has attracted over $6 billion, but inflows ended after 9 consecutive days at the end of September.
Therefore, what truly determines whether this month will close green is whether Bitcoin can firmly hold $86,000, and whether the ETF can continue to attract funds.
Historical data is only a reference, not the script for this month.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 In this market cycle, the difference in choosing which coin to invest in is significant. It cannot be summarized simply as "altcoin recovery."
$WLD has risen about 21% in a week and about 4% in 24 hours, showing a notably strong short-term performance.
At times like this, it's easiest for people to shift from "wait for a pullback" to "if you don't buy now, it'll be too late."
It's now close to 0.60; this round number can be observed, but you can't just assume a big surge after a breakout because the numbers look good.
If it quickly falls back after crossing, those who chased in will start to hesitate; if the pullback isn't deep and it can continue pushing upward, that is more convincing.
It's good to be optimistic, but controlling your position size is very important, meow.
$AAVE has risen nearly 25% in the past week and about 38% in a month, showing outstanding performance this week.
It didn't continue to surge today because it's the weekend and it has already risen for a while, so a pause is allowed. What really needs attention is whether the next pullback will erase several days' worth of gains.
Slowing down and stalling need to be distinguished by subsequent price action; don't rush to conclusions just because the gains have narrowed.
$DOGE basically hasn't risen in a week and has slightly fallen in the last 24 hours, temporarily not keeping up with this strong rally.
Those holding it might be more anxious, especially seeing other coins continuously rising.
But switching coins out of impatience might just mean switching when others are resting.
My judgment is to first acknowledge its current weakness, then watch for any new signs of strength. Continuing to hold requires reasons, and switching positions temporarily also requires reasons.Saylor tweeted tonight: More orange than ever
Is this a large-scale buy-in of Bitcoin?
Whether he buys or not seems to have little impact on the overall market trend,
but if he sells a large amount of Bitcoin, that would be somewhat stimulating.
I've written many articles about him, but never clearly explained his story.
There is a listed company whose main business (software) has long been abandoned.
Now it only does one thing: buys Bitcoin, continuously.
The coins on its books are worth more than the company itself.
Interestingly,
its stock sells for more than the coins it holds.
Paying over 10% more.
Why?
Because it can keep borrowing money and then use that money to buy coins.
What’s expensive in the market is not the coins it holds,
but this channel of borrowing and buying repeatedly.
Looking at this skillset, we mainly focus on three things.
First, where the money to buy coins comes from.
If it’s self-earned, it’s saving; if borrowed, it’s gambling.
Second, when the borrowed money must be repaid.
If it must be repaid within a year, and the price doesn’t cooperate, it has to cut losses.
If repayment is due in ten years, then it can endure.
Third, how high the interest on the borrowed money is.
The higher the interest paid, the more people are recalculating its risk.
Putting these three together, its strategy becomes clear:
Use long-term money borrowed at high interest to buy non-yielding assets.
Seeing this, you’re probably thinking, how can this keep going?
This system can only work under one premise:
The price of BTC keeps rising. 66 billion USD borrowed to fuel AI.
Grant Cardone pointed out something: giants like Meta, Google, and Amazon are relying on issuing high-yield bonds to support AI investments, with coupon rates as high as 9.75%.
In plain terms, they’d rather pay such expensive interest than risk falling behind in the AI race.
But from another perspective, who is buying these bonds?
Buyers aren’t driven by faith, but by that 9.75% return.
If AI’s execution falls short of expectations, interest rates will have to drop — at that point, will money still flow in so cheaply?
If tech stocks start calculating this, and risk appetite tightens, highly volatile assets like those in the crypto space are often the first to be drained.
This won’t have much short-term impact, but emotionally it’s a hidden risk.
The giants borrow money to fight a war of expectations. When expectations loosen, the first to run are never them, but the onlookers.
What do you think, if this AI narrative cools off, can $BTC hold up on its own?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $BTC To start with the conclusion: $H100 has been listed on OKX perpetual for two days, and the price is still fluctuating between 2.55 and 2.84 — this is not sideways trading, but the price discovery after listing is not yet complete.
On October 2, OKX announced the listing of $H100 perpetual (along with ACN, NKE, BWET, SECZ in the same batch). I checked the 4-hour trading volume over these two days: the first candle had 16,628 contracts, the second day 24,106 contracts, then gradually shrinking to 14,463 contracts, and the latest candle only 2,500 contracts.
What does this volume shrinkage curve indicate? The initial market makers and arbitrageurs have already set up the liquidity framework at the early stage of listing, but real speculative funds have not yet entered — everyone is waiting for a directional signal.
Compared to $ACN listed in the same batch (with trading volume over 3,000 contracts), $H100’s liquidity is clearly thinner. What does thin liquidity mean? Volatility will be amplified. If you pick the right direction, the elasticity is large; if you pick the wrong one, the pullback will be quick.
Today BTC is holding steady above 85,000. If the market continues to stabilize, the price discovery window for these newly listed coins will close faster.
Are you paying attention to $H100 now? $H100🔥 If you're heading in the right direction, why haven't you made money yet? Today, Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin price target directly from $82,000 to $113,000, an increase of nearly 34%. BTC is now consolidating around $85,000, and on-chain data tells us: long-term holders have nearly doubled their weekly profits, but overall trading volume remains sluggish, and the market has yet to see truly broad participation. Seeing this data reminds me of a blogger in the OKX Planet Creator Weekly report: "The hardest part of the market is often not making you completely misjudge, but getting your direction roughly right, yet it's hard to truly keep profits." Does this sting sting true? It does. In Q3, Bitcoin rose 42.71%, the best performance for the same period in nearly nine years, but it has still fallen about 4% year-to-date. What does that mean? This means many people saw the right direction at the start of the year but were left behind during the mid-wave consolidation. I've experienced this myself. At the end of June, I placed a long order at 57,735, missed a 1,000 yuan gap, and then watched the market rebound all the way. Missing out feels even worse than losing money—when you're losing, at least you know where you went wrong; when you miss out, you can't even clearly explain where it was. What stage is the market at now? Glassnode judges it as the "initial upward phase," but volume is insufficient. There is a selling wall between $85,000 and $85,500, and $77,200 is the key support level. Simply put: the direction is likely to go upward, but the process will be very slow. In this kind of market, this is the most common mistakeBtc bull flag structure shows a false breakout upward, breakout failed, daily chart has a top divergence, price still remains within a large range consolidation, no clear direction yet.
Avoid frequent trading in the middle of a volatile market, strictly no chasing the rally.
Rebound to the upper resistance zone 8.65-8.7 is a priority shorting area, stop loss set at 8.75.
Watershed: 83000-82500, a valid break below signals further decline; holding above means continued range-bound oscillation, watch out for false short traps.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC $ETH [Old Chive Observation] #MichaelSaylor hints at increasing BTC holdings
Michael Saylor just sent another signal.
He shared Strategy's BTC Tracker with only one sentence:
"More orange than ever."
Currently, Strategy holds 847,666 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,437/BTC.
More importantly, the last time Strategy disclosed an increase was right after Saylor released a similar Tracker:
On September 28, they bought 1,665 BTC, spending about $143 million. So what the market is waiting for now is not just a "bullish on BTC" statement, but whether we will see another new BTC purchase tomorrow. There is no confirmation yet that Strategy has bought in. But if this signal is realized, the next day will see another purchase worth over $100 million. $BTC $BTC Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0392%, price -0.83%, open interest +0.82%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.
$AXS short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0391%, price -0.58%, open interest +0.43%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.
$STRK negative rate is at a near seven-day same-period low: current 4-hour rate -0.0077%, price -0.24%, open interest +1.93%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.Let's analyze the big brother's slick moves.
Big bro Maji was decisive this round, PUMP was completely cleared out, keeping the total position steady at $146 million. Marginal positions were cut, scattered funds gathered back, clearly holding back for a new move.
$BTC: 378 coins, average price 84,700, floating profit of 152,900. Liquidation price dropped to 65,200, defense line much steadier. Recently repeatedly selling high and buying low, timing is spot on.
$ETH: 36,000 coins, average price 2,688, floating profit back to 610,000. But burning 1.23 million daily in sky-high funding fees, liquidation price pressed down to 2,495. Profits remain, defensive pressure still high, all relying on a strong foundation.
$HYPE: Position reduced to 174,000 coins, average price 89.72, slight profit of 65,200. Liquidation price dropped to 45, risk fully released.
After clearing PUMP, the $146 million portfolio now only holds the three core assets: BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Cutting marginal positions and concentrating defense on the mainstream shows he doesn't want to spread funds thin now. With the market fluctuating back and forth, better to keep bullets ready and wait for a clear direction before making a move.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #贝森特：The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends
🔥 Brothers, with this statement, Bassent has fully revealed the bottom cards of the U.S. Treasury market.
In plain terms: the surge in U.S. Treasury yields follows the global trend. Translated into everyday language — don’t expect the Treasury or the Fed to forcibly suppress interest rates anymore; we all have to gradually get used to a high interest rate environment.
This is definitely a long-term constraint for the crypto world. Think about it, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields stuck at a high level of 5.6% means the world’s safest asset can earn big returns just by holding it. Capital chases profits; with such high risk-free returns, who still has the leisure to take risks in crypto? Bitcoin hovering around 85,000 and unable to break higher ultimately means there’s no fresh liquidity outside the market, and inside the market it’s all leverage cutting each other.
But let’s not be overly pessimistic.
Bassent’s statement is actually about managing expectations. He’s telling the market: stop fixating on rate cuts, the U.S. economy is aiming for a "soft landing," and high interest rates are the new normal. This shows the U.S. Treasury is choosing to tough it out under debt pressure.
The current strategy is simple, don’t get caught up in grand macro narratives:
Hold your spot positions firmly; as long as institutional ETFs keep buying slowly, the bottom support remains, don’t easily give up your chips.
Contract traders must control their hands; during this high interest rate standoff, macro news causes extremely fierce spikes up and down, and both longs and shorts are prone to repeated liquidations.
Hold your USDT tightly, be patient, wait until the market truly adapts to the high interest rate norm, or until long-term bond yields finally peak and fall back — that will be the signal for a major rebound in risk assets.$ETH Recently, what is worth paying attention to is not the single-day increase, but whether there is a sustained capital inflow. If $BTC remains stable at a high level, and ETH starts to consistently outperform BTC, this kind of capital rotation is often more noteworthy than a single large bullish candle.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $FLOCK I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but now I have to take back my words, it's a bit awkward.
Last night before bed, FLOCK rebounded but no one took over, the support was insufficient, and the resistance above was obvious. I suggested trying a short position. Entry price 0.07391.
Woke up to see the current price at 0.06463, a return of +251.38%. This profit feels good; the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Take profits on 80%, move the stop loss on the remaining 20% to the cost price for protection, let the profit run if it continues to drop, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a trending move. Risk control done upfront is called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action. Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ADA $ZEC $ZEC
✅ Scenario A: Bulls charge again
Holding above 1337.83, bulls make another push to challenge the high at 1346. Once broken, the upside space opens up.
❌ Scenario B: Rally followed by pullback and correction
Support at 1330.33 fails, price pulls back to 1323 (SAR), further looking toward SuperTrend support at 1313.
👉 Let's discuss your views:
1. Do you think 1346 is the phase top for this wave?
2. With ZEC consolidating at a high level, do you lean more toward an upward breakout or a pullback for accumulation first?
3. After this rally with a long upper shadow and choppy price action, could this be another two-way stop-loss sweep? #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC is stagnant near 85,000 USD, but the activity of large on-chain addresses is anything but calm.
In the past 10 days, whale and shark addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have quietly accumulated 41,025 BTC, pushing total holdings to 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of the circulating supply, directly reclaiming the highest level since the mid-August rally. During the same period, retail addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC barely moved, remaining flat.
More subtle is the situation on the exchange side.
The total BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to about 2.68 million BTC, the lowest since 2023. The inflow-to-outflow ratio has continuously declined to 0.97, indicating a net outflow of funds from exchanges, with a net outflow of 6,762 BTC in the first week of October alone. Coins are leaving trading platforms, but the price remains sideways; this structural migration of supply is more worth watching than any bullish candle on the chart.
There is another signal not to be ignored — the concentrated awakening of dormant addresses. On October 4, an address that had been dormant for 13.1 years holding 801 BTC suddenly activated, worth 68.29 million USD. On the same day, another ancient whale from 13 years ago moved 1,346 BTC, with a cost basis of only 240,000 USD, realizing a floating profit of over 100 million USD. Old money is testing, new money is accumulating; the directions may not be the same, but both are active.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Stop oscillating, ETH: A monologue about cleansing and struggle
Can you stop oscillating? ETH.
Watching the candlestick break through from 2530 to 2700, this smoothness is rare. The 2700 to 2800 range is basically a battleground for bears, with liquidations, stop losses, and short covering triggering a domino effect that further pushed the price up. Honestly, this rally didn’t require much effort; the market sentiment was just ignited like that.
But as someone who’s been through the market grind, I know very well: if this bull market wants to truly take off, the trend won’t be so smooth. To go far, the main players have to be a bit "mean." They need to push down to the 2450 or even 2300 range to completely clear out those high-leverage bulls shouting "bull market is back." After all, where would you latecomer "retail traders" comfortably make money so easily?
Right now, my average holding price is 2685.11. Looking at the red and green on the chart, I feel mixed emotions. The day before yesterday’s non-farm payroll data was released, and the market expected earth-shattering volatility, but what happened? Only a 1.11 amplitude. Although the low once dipped to 2648, I didn’t profit from it. For risk control, I even closed my BTC profit position a few days ago.
Trading is like this, full of regrets and struggles. While we look forward to trends, we also fear their reversals. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 SEI going pump right now isn’t pure hopium — it’s a real mix of supply squeeze narrative + tech delivery + RWA traction, but the chart is screaming short-term exhaustion.
$SEI
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge $DOGE After a roughly 35% rally in two months, it was finally time for profit-takers to "speak." From $0.069 on August 7 to $0.093 on October 4, most of the funds entering during this period were already in profit. As more and more people make money in the market, new problems naturally arise: the more prices rise, the more people want to cash in. After entering October, prices have already given back part of September's gains over the first four days, about 15%. But in my view, this cannot be directly defined as a trend reversal; it is more like a normal profit-taking + chip re-swapping. Old positions start to be pocketed, new funds take over, and the market's average holding costs will be reshuffled during this process. Whether this pullback is a healthy consolidation or a trend weakening depends crucially on the strength of support. If $DOGE can hold in the $0.09–$0.093 range, it means there is still capital continuing to take in during the decline, selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, and the chip structure may actually become healthier. But if it fails to recover after breaking below 0.09, it means buying is starting to lose track of selling. In that case, the previous 35% gain may need longer to digest. Volume is also worth watching: shrinking volume on pullbacks, volume expansion on rebounds—leaning toward strong consolidation. Volume increasing on declines, shrinking volume on rebounds—this means caution is needed for continued capital outflows. Looking at the overall rhythm, a 35% rise in two months isn't particularly crazy; now it's pulling backBesent says the rise in U.S. Treasury yields "aligns with global trends," what do experts think?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent recently stated that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is consistent with global market trends and is not unique to the U.S., so there is no need for excessive panic. He said there is no evidence of funds selling U.S. Treasuries to shift to German or Japanese bonds.
The background is that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once reached 5.306%, the highest since 2002. Driving factors include the Iran war pushing up energy prices, concerns about the U.S. fiscal condition, and the AI capital expenditure boom.
Experts agree with the "global trend" assessment: over the past year, U.S. Treasury yields have risen about 97 basis points, while South Korea, Japan, Australia, and France have risen 178, 145, 114, and 102 basis points respectively during the same period, representing a synchronized repricing of long-term rates across multiple countries. However, experts also point out that Besent avoided addressing the U.S.'s own fiscal issues: federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, long-term supply pressure continues to increase term premiums, and the underlying logic for rising long-term rates has not disappeared.
For the crypto market, the higher the risk-free rate, the greater the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. If the global interest rate baseline is systemically reset, 5% may not be the peak but the starting point of a new normal. Some also believe that to maintain bond market stability, the Federal Reserve may tolerate high inflation for a long time, which in turn strengthens Bitcoin's narrative.
The above content is only a summary and analysis of market information and does not constitute any investment advice.
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 [Pharaoh's Market View]
ADAPT was proposed by Senator Steve Daines and is currently a bill, not yet law. It mainly involves exemptions for small network fees and some simplifications in stablecoin payment taxation?
The impact on BTC can be divided into three layers:
* Long-term positive for compliant participation. Tax rules become clearer, reducing uncertainty for businesses and professional investors handling digital assets. But this lowers participation barriers and does not directly equate to new funds buying BTC.
* Short-term traders face some disadvantages. The proposed wash sale rules may limit the practice of "selling at a loss and quickly buying back while claiming tax deductions." However, this does not mean immediate selling pressure in the market; the final text and implementation arrangements still need to be seen.
* Stablecoins benefit more directly. The related payment conveniences do not mean that Bitcoin trading or payments are generally tax-exempt, nor is there a promise to reduce BTC capital gains tax rates.
Pharaoh's summary: This is a tax guidance supplement for the crypto community, helpful for long-term development, but not yet at the stage of "bill proposed, BTC price soars." In the near term, BTC's direction still depends on US Treasury yields, ETF buying, and whether the price can break resistance; this news alone is insufficient to justify chasing the price up.
So Pharaoh's view: ADAPT is moderately positive for Bitcoin medium to long term, with limited short-term impact; it also includes clauses tightening tax benefits, not a comprehensive tax cut. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT 📦 STRK Just Broke Out of Its Box
After 10 days in a $0.038 to $0.050 range, STRK broke out, cleared September's $0.051 high, and now trades at $0.058 after tagging $0.0597.
Fuel: new strkBTC incentives and a mainnet upgrade on October 5.
Risks: $0.06 resistance, daily RSI above 74, and a 127M STRK unlock on October 15.
Hold $0.054 and $0.06 is next. Lose it and the $0.050 box top gets retested.
Through $0.06 or retest?
Not financial advice. $STRK $BTC $ZEC 6. If you can't even recover the previous day's cost on the second day, it means the rhythm is off; if you need to withdraw, then withdraw.
7. When there is a continuous trend on the gainers list, the rhythm often changes on the third, fifth, and seventh days. After two consecutive days of gains, wait for a pullback; focus on taking profits on the fifth day.
8. Always pay attention to trading volume. A breakout with increased volume at a low level is worth noting, but if volume increases at a high level and the price still struggles to rise, be cautious of a pullback.
9. Follow the trend and don't fight against it: for short-term, look at the 3-day moving average; for mid-term, the 30-day moving average; for the main rise, the 80-day moving average; and for the long term, the 120-day moving average.
10. Small funds fear rushing the most. What truly determines whether an account can grow is the method, mindset, and execution. Be patient and wait for the opportunity before acting. If you really want to make money in this market, the earlier you develop these 10 habits, the better.
If you want to treat trading as a long-term endeavor, don't expect to build your account with just a few heavy positions. Those who truly survive in the market rely on a set of rules they have repeatedly tested themselves. The following 10 points are what I've been using over the years.
1. Don't rush to bottom-fish after a strong coin has fallen to a certain stage; after 9 consecutive days of decline, you can start paying attention to rebound signals.
2. If the coin price rises continuously for 2 days in a short period, don't blindly chase; you can appropriately reduce your position.
3. If the daily increase exceeds 7%, focus on observing the high point action the next day; don't rush to chase.
4. The stronger the coin, the more you shouldn't rush in just because of a big rise; waiting for a pullback to stabilize is often more comfortable.
5. If there is little fluctuation for 3 consecutive days, just observe; if after another 3 days there is still no movement, consider switching targets. Damn, everyone! This time, go all-in to short $SAND! Dog dealer, you can't hold it up, right? Since it won't go up, then just dump it down! Short positions have already gotten in! This time, my $SAND short entry price was about 0.0749, and now the marker price is around 0.0771. The floating loss is over 650 USD, with a return close to -43%. Honestly, seeing this number does hurt a bit. But now, I actually don't want to recklessly sell at this level. Why? Because at its strongest today, $SAND only surged to around 0.08035. Previously, 0.08299 had already experienced a clear resistance. Now the price is pushing up again, and it really looks strong. But if you stretch the cycle to 4 hours, it's different: from around 0.04 all the way to now, it's basically doubled in a short time. The real danger in this kind of market is never the rise itself. It's that in the end, no one above wants to keep taking over. Right now, $SAND is around 0.077. MA5 is around 0.0755, MA10 is about 0.0749. What does this mean? The short-term trend is indeed strong. I'm not stubbornly saying the bulls are far from completely over yet. So this time, I'm not betting that it will immediately hit zero. What I bet is: the resistance near 0.08 won't be so easily broken through. If you have the guts, keep rallying. First, hold on to 0.0803, then challenge the previous 0.08299. ReallyThe same asset existing simultaneously on multiple chains—does it increase liquidity or fragment it? 1/ An easily overlooked paradox: The more chains the issuer deploys the asset on, theoretically the more users it can reach, but the actual result is often the opposite—the liquidity does not increase but is instead split into many isolated small pools. Today, using $ONDO $LINK $UNI $HYPE to analyze this paradox: Is multichain an amplifier or a crusher? 2/ Conclusion first: The answer depends on "how multichain" rather than "how many chains." Industry research clearly shows that if a tokenized treasury fund’s holders are spread across five networks, the result is often five shallow pools instead of one deep pool—this lowers liquidity, widens spreads, and makes price discovery unreliable. The more realistic cost is that cross-chain transfers without proper infrastructure usually require re-minting plus repeated KYC, with combined costs reaching 2% to 5%, and it can take several days to complete. Industry estimates indicate that this cross-chain fragmentation causes about $600 million to $1.3 billion in value to evaporate annually from the tokenized asset market. 3/ Root cause: Most "multichain deployments" are actually "copy-paste," not "the same asset." The traditional approach is to mint a "wrapped/mapped" version of the asset separately on each chain, resulting in the same underlying asset becoming N shadow tokens that cannot be exchanged with each other, each chain maintaining independent liquidity pools and supply, and it is even possible for the same asset to appear on differentRocket launch! The veteran leader in the metaverse suddenly explodes
The long-dormant metaverse sector finally experienced a long-awaited breakout on the evening of October 4. As a veteran leader in this field, SAND showed an exceptionally strong short-term trend after a prolonged consolidation, like a rocket igniting and taking off, instantly igniting the market's bullish enthusiasm.
Looking back at the starting point of this rally, the precise opening average price of 0.07403 contrasts sharply with the current mark price of 0.07737, and the long positions at the bottom have already secured stable floating profits. This is not a blind speculation but a rational game based on profound fundamental changes.
Recently, South Korea's three major exchanges (including Upbit) have successively lifted trading warnings on SAND, a major positive development that directly cleared liquidity obstacles and paved the way for capital inflows. Meanwhile, the highly anticipated Studio engine is expected to officially launch this month, and this core product iteration will bring substantial strong catalysts to the platform ecosystem.
The current trading logic centers on betting on the dual resonance of "all negative news priced in" and "version updates." Although the violent surge on the hourly chart is exciting, investors should remain clear-headed amid the cheers: short-term profit-taking pressure may emerge at any time, and caution against a pullback after the rally is necessary to navigate volatility steadily and sustainably. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Leverage on Dogecoin: This time, U.S. regulators have firmly nailed the table legs first.
On October 2, Kalshi officially launched Dogecoin perpetual contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and today it has reached its first weekend. The rules are not complicated: one contract corresponds to 10 DOGE, with a maximum long leverage of 3.8x, and early positions clearly skewed toward the sellers.
Previously, these kinds of products were mostly run in "back alleys"—dimly lit, narrow door cracks, where if you won money you had to first find the exit, and if you lost, you could only look for customer service in the chat box. Now it's different; it has been moved into a house with a street number, where you know exactly which door to knock on regarding margin collection, forced liquidation calculations, and disclosure postings.
This means Dogecoin trading is moving from the "dark alleys" into the "main hall." For aggressive traders used to battling on native crypto platforms, 3.8x leverage might seem somewhat "mild," but this is precisely the logic of traditional financial regulation: allowing innovation while first nailing the table legs to prevent it from being overturned.
This may signal that more mainstream cryptocurrencies will enter the traditional investor's view in the form of these "regulated leveraged products" in the future. With the table legs nailed firmly, those who come to the table will naturally feel more secure, but gamblers hoping to get rich overnight might find it not exciting enough. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ZEC this weekend really disgusted me!
This time I got a harsh lesson from this speculative coin: never underestimate the destructive power of an oversold rebound.
I originally thought that after a sideways consolidation, $ZEC would continue to go down, but unexpectedly the bulls suddenly pushed against the trend, driving the price all the way up to around 1330.
The 50x high-leverage short position I opened around 830 is now in a very passive state. Two positions are floating losses close to 2000U, and the return rate has dropped to below -3000.
What’s most painful now is not the loss itself, but the choice ahead:
Cutting losses means accepting a significant loss; holding on to the position risks the price breaking through the resistance near 1346, further increasing losses.
Caught in a dilemma, this is the most tormenting part of high-leverage trading.
This time I’ve thoroughly understood: the market won’t necessarily fall just because you are bearish, nor will it continue to fall just because it has dropped enough.
It’s not scary to be wrong about the direction, but it’s scary to use high leverage and still refuse to admit mistakes and stop losses.
The market always has the next opportunity, but once your principal is severely damaged, even the best market conditions afterward won’t matter to you.
From now on, position management and risk control must come first. Less luck, more discipline, is the only way to go further in this market. Just sold and bought back again, what is this whale up to?
Someone sold ETH at 2709 and bought it back at 2695.
4 hours ago, an address withdrew 3,283.56 ETH from OKX, worth 8.85 million. The last time they deposited to the exchange was 1,099 ETH. That means not only did they buy back what they just sold, but they also bought an additional 2,184 ETH.
Back and forth, a price difference of 14 dollars. With 3,283 ETH, they made less than 46,000. After all the fuss, they only earned the transaction fee.
But the action itself is interesting.
Selling at 2709 and buying at 2695 shows they think below 2700 is a good entry point. Withdrawing the coins might mean they plan to hold long-term or stake them to earn interest. Either way, it's better than leaving them on the exchange.
Retail investors watch the candlesticks daily trying to catch big swings, while this person only profits 14 dollars difference but increases their coin holdings. This is the most basic coin accumulation logic—ignoring price, focusing on quantity.
The above is compiled from on-chain data, not investment advice $ETH $BTC From the perspective of altcoins and the entire crypto industry, "buybacks" have indeed become a key narrative in this cycle! Believe it or not! The fundamentals of altcoins will become increasingly important in the future!
Aave, which I tweeted about a while ago, has also risen quite a bit and has been consolidating recently without much decline. Aave has strong profit-making ability and has even announced expectations for buybacks. This move will definitely be launched later, but not now.
So I took a look at Morpho in the same sector. Both Aave and Morpho belong to the on-chain lending sector.
By comparison, the two have different models: Aave mainly uses a shared liquidity pool, while Morpho emphasizes customizable lending markets and vaults.
The core of a blockchain is a series of core links, such as a DEX (Uni), lending (Aave), perpetuals (Hype), and meme launchpads (Pump). Connecting these forms the core of a chain.
The core of this chain is its profit-making ability. Look at those mentioned above— which one isn’t profitable? Profitability is a crucial test for a coin.
Many projects now announce buybacks, imitating US stock buybacks. Later, there will be dividends, and this will gradually evolve, allowing them to capture considerable price gains. The market is currently very receptive to this approach!$NEAR current net value: 24,819.71 CNY.
Today's loss -40.89 CNY,
My leg is about to break from all the pain today, I'm 🌿ed!
In the morning, I had a floating loss on a pons order, then hedged it, but who knew that in the evening, a huge bearish candle smashed through my short stop loss!
Next time, remember, never randomly place orders when hedging!
I originally stuck to the short position, now I've actually made 1500 CNY profit, but because of lack of confidence, I ended up with a loss of -1540 CNY!
It hurts so much!
The market is chaotic, and people's minds are even more chaotic.
Now I only stick to three things:
Don't overleverage, don't delay stop losses, don't be greedy with profits.
Keep working slowly and patiently.
Wait for the market to give direction, and wait for myself to be more stable. Bitcoin and Ethereum have once again retreated back into the consolidation range.
$BTC｜around 84600
$ETH｜around 2678
The 15-minute timeframe shows volatility as narrow as a crack in the door, with a thin order book and depth not fully expanded; even small orders can easily create long wicks.
BTC capital inflow is starting to cool down, while ETH shows volume-price divergence, making the rebound seem weak.
Simply put, the volume isn't keeping up; an upward surge can easily turn into a paper tiger, while a downward drop might be more decisive.
$SOL remains the same, acting according to the big brother's mood.
When prices rise, you get a taste; when they fall, you often take the hit first. Today, even the volatility seems to be on leave, leaving only drowsiness after watching for a while.
In the current market, there's no need to frequently trade over a few candlesticks.
Being out of position is also a position; waiting is itself a form of trading.
Before the market gives a clear direction, preserving your principal is more important than anything else.
#BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH capital continues to outflow
#Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to release September meeting minutes
#US-Iran tensions persist, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves