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$DOT's current situation is like a rook forced to the edge of the chessboard—only 0.1% of maneuvering space left before hitting the upper Bollinger Band; one more push and it's out of the game.
It moved only 1.74% in 24 hours. To outsiders, it looks calm; to insiders, it's the silence of midgame: both sides are waiting for the other to make the first move. The short-term RSI has climbed to 65.6, surpassing the 64 warning line; the long-term RSI is only 46.8, stuck in the equilibrium zone. These two lines are completely disconnected—the short-term has taken the initiative, while the long-term is still slowly repositioning on the rear wing. I've seen this structure many times in grandmaster matches: it looks like an attack but is actually bait before sacrificing a piece.
Looking again at the Bollinger Bands. The mid-term price position has already hit 101%, with the upper band breached by 0.0%. This is not a strong breakout but an overextension. Looking downward, the mid-term lower band still has 3.5% depth—that's the real corridor for pawns to advance; the short-term lower band has only 2.1% distance, indicating volatility has been compressed to the extreme—the longer the compression, the fiercer the breakthrough will be.
My judgment is clear: I will not place a move at 0.83. This is a classic stalemate where whoever moves first loses. I will wait for the opponent to push the pawn to 0.87—4.7% above the current price—that's my preset exchange point and the last decent entry window for the bears. If the price fails to break through and weakens directly, the support near 0.80 is just a false fortress in the endgame.
Trading plan:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.87 (current price +4.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.77 (-6.5%)
Take Profit 2: 0.80 (-3.3%)
Stop Loss: 0.97 (+17.1%)
From a risk control perspective, the 17.1% stop loss seems wide, but compared to the 1.74% intraday amplitude, this is the buffer for the chess clock—being swept out by a single upper shadow is more humiliating than being checkmated elegantly. The first target's 6.5% space is enough to cover the risk exposure; the second target's 3.3% is my pre-lock on half the position, dragging the situation into a controllable endgame.
The containment is already formed; the weak long-term pawn line at 46.8 will eventually drag back the short-term's rash advance. In this $DOT game, the initiative is in the bears' hands; any bull counterattack only delays that checkmate. #strategyplaybookThis round of institutional upward revisions is mainly based on several logics: 🔹 crypto market trading activity is rebounding 🔹, marginal improvement 🔹 in macro environment, about $5 billion is expected to flow into crypto investment products/ETFs over the next 12 months, 🔹 the US Treasury continues to conduct long-term Treasury repurchases 🔹, and new room for US crypto regulatory policies is emerging. Meanwhile, Citigroup has raised its 12-month price target for ETH from $2,240 to $3,028. However, there is still a clear contradiction in the market: BTC ETFs had seen inflows for several consecutive days, but on September 30, there was a net outflow of about $149 million in a single day, interrupting the previous inflow trend. On the macro front, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds once surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2002; September nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, and employment data will continue to influence market pricing for the Fed's subsequent policies. Therefore, $113,000 can be seen as Citi's scenario target based on current capital flows, macro environment, and policy expectations, and does not mean BTC will rise in a straight line. In the short term, focus should still be paid to: ETF capital flows + US Treasury yields + September nonfarm payrolls + Fed rate hike expectations. Institutional targets can be referenced, but what truly determines the market trend are funds and macro data. ⚠️ #加息预期推迟 #9月非农 #比特币ETF #美债收益率 #BTC #ETH #ZECMON current price 0.03353
After a rapid surge in 4 hours
Entered a high-level pullback phase
Resistance at 0.03374, support at 0.03304
Short-term bullish trend still intact
Just surged high then pulled back to digest profit-taking
Holding above 0.03374 resistance
Likely to challenge previous high of 0.03522 again
If it breaks below 0.03304 support
This short-term upward structure will weaken
Approaching positive events
Market volatility will increase
$MON $CT $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $AUDM This blueprint is currently in the quiet period of minimal wind load—24H amplitude is only -0.06%, with almost all load-bearing columns stationary in their original positions, but the price has already touched the 5% level below the short-term Bollinger Band lower band, which is a typical stress concentration zone. Anyone who truly understands structures knows that the calmer the floor slab, the tighter the rebar underneath is stretched.
Looking at the short-term Bollinger Bands: the current price is only 0.0% away from the lower band and just 0.1% from the upper band, compressing the entire range into a thin plate. The mid-term is even more intriguing; the price is stuck at the 25th percentile, with only +0.2% buffer down to the foundation and +0.7% clearance up to the ridge—this is not balance, but a cantilever structure waiting for the load direction.
RSI1H has fallen below 38, entering the oversold condition zone. In my professional experience, this signals the end of the concrete curing period, where the formwork can be removed but loading has not yet started. Panic selling has released short-term stress too aggressively, yet no settlement cracks have appeared in the foundation.
My trading plan is arranged according to construction milestones:
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.68 (current price -2.1%)
Take Profit 1: 0.71 (+2.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.70 (+0.7%)
Stop Loss: 0.62 (-11.6%)
Note that Take Profit 2 is deliberately set below the first target—this is not a mistake but layered acceptance: first confirm that the original floor at 0.70 is reloaded, then advance to the upper layer at 0.71. The stop loss is set at 0.62, which is the original casting surface of this round of foundation; if breached, it indicates the load-bearing wall design itself needs to be re-approved.
The essence of risk control is not to avoid setting stop losses, but that the stop loss level must fall on the hard bearing layer confirmed by the geological survey report. 0.62 is that rock layer. #美债收益率冲上高位, liquidity pressure remains unresolved #BTCETF九日流入结束, ETH funds continue to weaken. The US job market has once again given the market a "tough" answer. The latest data shows that initial jobless claims in the US fell to 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, and has remained below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks; Continuing jobless claims also fell to about 1.701 million, at the lowest level since 2023. There are no obvious signs of deterioration in the job market so far. So here's the question: The market originally hoped employment would cool and give the Fed more room for easing, but although companies keep citing costs and operational pressures, actual layoffs remain limited. The stronger the job resilience, the harder it is for the Fed to quickly switch to easing. What's even more noteworthy is that the September nonfarm payroll report is about to be released, which is the real macro focus ahead. If employment data continues to beat expectations, rate cut expectations may be further delayed; Conversely, if employment cools significantly, the market may re-trade easing expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market remains challenging. The 10-year Treasury yield recently surged to about 5.34%, and the 30-year yield also surpassed 5.67%, with long-term financing costs remaining high. Although yields have subsequently declined, the high interest rate environment has not yet truly eased. A notable change has also occurred in the crypto market: previously, U.S. spot BTC ETFs had net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.1 billion, but suddenly on September 30,Nonfarm Night: BTC Stuck in 81.7–85.5K Range, Tonight Decides the Direction
Conclusion first: BTC has been consolidating in the 81,700–85,518 range for four days. Tonight at 20:30, the September Nonfarm Payrolls will be released (expected new jobs: 53,000; unemployment rate: 4.1%). This data is the key to breaking the box. No move before the data; after the data, only trade breakouts with retests—the upper and lower boundaries of the range are the only meaningful levels tonight.
Background clarified first. BTC closed September at 83,563 and last week’s weekly close was 84,450, the highest weekly close since late January, showing a strong pattern. But overhead pressure comes from the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.34%, the highest since 2002, with real rates near a 15-year high—this is a constraint for high-beta assets. On the capital side, spot ETFs had a net inflow of $6.34 billion in Q3, but on September 30 alone, there was an outflow of $148.7 million, indicating weakening marginal flows. The pattern favors bulls, but macro and capital factors hedge each other, resulting in the range.
Trading plan:
If data is weaker than expected (new jobs far below forecast or unemployment rate rises): bias bullish. Trigger: 4H close above 85,518, then retest 85,500–84,800 without breaking down. Stop loss: below 84,200. Targets: 87,400 (September high), 90,000.
If data is stronger than expected (new jobs exceed 80,000): bias bearish. Trigger: 4H close below 81,700, then rebound suppressed at 81,700–82,500. Stop loss: above 83,100. Targets: 80,000, 78,500.
No-trade zones: chasing back and forth in the mid-range 82,500–84,500; the first 15 minutes after data release; if data meets expectations and price remains stuck in the range, close positions for the day.
Risk control: Volatility on Nonfarm night is several times the usual. Only trade breakouts with retests, do not chase the first move; reduce single position size by half; stop loss is discipline. Breakouts can be true or false—only a stable retest counts. A common scenario on data nights is a sweep to one side followed by a reversal; surviving is more important than capturing the full move.$GRASS The overall trend of GRASS is upward, but short-term indicators are clearly overbought. I took profits from several pullbacks earlier and am no longer in a hurry to open new short positions; I have a high-level pending order at 1.1 waiting.
KDJ has entered a high-level range, and short-term fluctuations and pullbacks may occur at any time. The first resistance ahead is 0.75, with the previous high at 0.819 being a strong resistance. 1.1 is a high-level ambush order for the distant term, not for short-term speculation.
In an uptrend, shorting with heavy positions prematurely is most taboo, as it is easy to get stopped out by trend extensions. Maintain a light position ambush approach and wait for the market to surge to the target area before acting. The support below is at 0.60; if it breaks down effectively, the bullish trend structure will loosen.
Be patient and wait for a bull trap surge; do not stubbornly resist the trend prematurely.$ETH just delivered an impressive quarter—but I wouldn’t chase the move blindly. $ETH gained around 70.8% in Q3, rebounding from roughly $1,570 to $2,680 after two weak quarters. It also outperformed $BTC , which gained about 42.7%, while ETH/BTC climbed roughly 19%. Spot ETH ETFs attracted around $3.1B in net inflows, showing renewed institutional demand. But the bigger question is what comes next. ETH is still below its previous ATH, and a strong Q3 doesn’t guarantee another strong quarter. FShort-term focus includes: 🔹 Resistance above: $🔹 120.35; Support below: $116.90 🔹; Core oscillation range: $116.9–$120.4. Currently, both bulls and bears are clearly in a stalemate; the closer the price gets to the edge of the range, the more likely volatility will be after a breakout. Recently, SOL spot ETF funds have also changed, with a net outflow of about $11.1 million recorded on September 30. The pace of inflows has slowed recently, so the breakout near $120 is worth watching. On the macro side, market attention has shifted to the US September nonfarm payroll data. After PCE data cooled, expectations for a rate hike in October have clearly declined, but employment data may still re-impact the interest rate path; Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields previously rose to multi-year highs and remain a source of pressure for risk assets. So don't rush to chase gains in the short term: hold above $120 → watch for further breakout space; break below $116.9 → watch if the oscillation structure weakens. $SOL $XRP $ZEC #加息预期降温 #9月非农 #Solana #SOL行情 #比特币ETF #美债收益率 #加密市场$368 million in trading volume cannot be directly translated as net buying
As of 17:25 on October 1, OKX's $ETH spot 24-hour trading volume was approximately $368.5 million, with a volume of about 136,700 ETH. This figure proves market activity but does not tell us how much capital is "net inflow." Every trade has both a buyer and a seller; an increase in trading volume could come from active buying, panic selling, arbitrage turnover, or market makers continuously adjusting inventory. To determine whether capital is truly pushing up the cost, the trading volume needs to be put back into the price structure: after a volume surge and price rise, can the high level hold? Does selling pressure weaken during a pullback? Is the rebound sustained rather than just a spike? Today's price dropped from 2738.98 back to around 2691, indicating that the high-volume trading did not fully convert into stable support. Activity level is necessary information but not a directional conclusion. For $ETH, I prefer to see a higher platform formed after increased volume rather than using a nice total volume figure to mask a spike and fall. The volume-price relationship must be observed continuously; single-day trading volume cannot replace judgment.
If volume continues to increase but the price falls, the implication is completely opposite to a volume surge that holds steady at 2739.The recently released US August PCE was significantly below expectations, with core PCE falling year-on-year to 3.0%, giving risk assets a breather, and BTC briefly climbed back above the $85,000 mark. But the problem is, US Treasury yields remain high, and macro pressure has not truly disappeared. The real test remains tonight's US September nonfarm payroll. Currently, the market generally expects about 90,000 new nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate to stay around 4.1%; Previous ADP data showed that private sector employment in September increased by 90,000, higher than the market expectation of 70,000. So the significance of this nonfarm payroll is very direct: if employment is clearly stronger than expected, the market may re-trade the logic of "high interest rates lasting longer," and both US Treasury yields and the dollar could once again put pressure on risk assets; If employment cools significantly, it could further strengthen market expectations for a shift in monetary policy. $BTC BTC is currently fluctuating around $84,200–84,500. At this stage, I am more focused on two positions: support: $82,500–$83,000; Resistance: $85,000–$85,500. Over the past week, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.39 billion. Institutional demand remains, but the inflow rate in the following days has clearly slowed. So now is not simply bullish or bearish, but rather whether BTC can truly hold above $85,500. If it can't rise, the previous high remains just resistance; If it can't hold $82,500, the consolidation structure may continue to move downwardWoke up early in the morning
Saw $ZEC made a 50% profit, decisively took profits this time, didn’t hold on to die, learned from previous losses, afraid the profit would be completely given back in the end
Then continued shorting $SOL, after observing these two days, found sol is still weak, tried a small short position 📉, will hold for a couple of days first
Still holding the short position on $XIAOMI, the market will open soon, let's see how it performs today. Many people are bearish on Xiaomi just by looking at the recent financial report. Stock trading is about expectations; the recent financial report has already been reflected in the stock price, it will rebound later, this expectation won’t change, let’s wait and see!
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 $SOL is currently around $117.7 to $118.1, after reaching a 24-hour high of $119.6 and then pulling back, fluctuating in the short term between $116.7 and $120. In the medium term, it has rebounded from the June low with a structure leaning towards recovery. Continuous weekly net inflows from ETFs provide support, but it has been blocked twice near $125, and momentum has yet to confirm a breakout. Key resistance above is between $120 and $125; only a breakout with volume will have a chance to challenge $132 to $150. Support below is between $115 and $117; if broken, it may retest $106 to $110. The current trend is cautiously recovering, and in the short term, it is more suitable to observe whether $125 can be effectively reclaimed rather than chasing longs based solely on the rebound. "Slap of Leverage"
This move by the green-haired trader is like throwing a match into a pot of oil.
On $BTC, he simultaneously opened a 75x isolated long and a 100x cross long, both with entry costs above 84000. The positions were just opened around midnight, and within two to three hours, the market only dropped less than 1%, about seven to eight hundred dollars, yet the account was already severely damaged: one position lost 71%, the other 60%, totaling over 3000 U. It’s not that the direction was wildly wrong, but leverage amplified normal fluctuations into fatal wounds.
$ETH was even more urgent. With 100x isolated leverage, 30 long contracts entered at 2693, within an hour the price dropped to 2678, just a 15-dollar, less than 1% decline, but the principal evaporated nearly 62%, over 500 U lost. There were also short orders below that weren’t fully closed, likely repeatedly harvested in the crossfire of longs and shorts.
The cruelest part of high leverage is that the market doesn’t need to crash; it only needs to shake lightly for the positions to collapse first. Frequent order openings and heavy positions charging forward may seem aggressive, but in reality, they leave life and death to minute-level fluctuations. The market doesn’t target anyone; it’s just that leverage first wipes out the margin for error.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Looking at this account, I fell into deep thought.
Both are long positions, both are "buy," so why is the difference so huge?!🤡
Big coin (BTC) 10x full position, steady as an old dog, comfortably floating profit +5892 U (+7%). Estimated liquidation price at 75,000, this position is so safe I even want to take a nap.😎
Then look at the neighbor's SOL... 50x isolated margin, opening average price 120.33, current price 118.74. Although it only dropped less than 2 points, the power of leverage directly turned the profit into -66.06%!💀
Floating loss of 159 U is not much, but this -66% red number is literally torturing my heart. Liquidation price 80.73, now it's like walking a tightrope.
The worst tragedy in crypto is: using money earned from big coin to pay tuition for altcoins. $BTC $SOL $BTC $ETH $USELESS The volume of coins on today's gainers list is generally low. The main reason is that most of the listed tokens are small-cap altcoins and Meme coins with very thin order book depth. These types of coins don't require huge funds; a small number of buy orders can quickly push the price up by seven to eight percent, which is completely different from large-cap coins like BTC and ETH.
Many of the rallies are not driven by large inflows of new funds but are more passive buying triggered by short stop-losses, resulting in a pulse-like market. The exchange's gainers list sorts only by percentage increase, naturally filtering out low-liquidity small coins, while large-cap coins with small fluctuations rarely make the list.
Just like the USELESS I hold, this rebound is a volume-shrinking recovery without a large amount of new funds taking over. This kind of market rises quickly but lacks support; after the heat fades, the decline is equally rapid. It is only suitable as a window to reduce losses, not as a trend reversal.13 days into this short, and instead of crashing, the market is slowly testing my patience. $BTC is still around $84K,$ETH near $2.68K, and my short positions remain stuck in limbo. The plan was to hold for 2–4 weeks, but the market keeps refusing to break down. Even with high Treasury yields and plenty of bearish headlines, PCE gave buyers another boost. Now NFP is next. Will weak data trigger another drop, or will the market once again turn bad news into a bullish reaction? No more adding. JWaiting for Nonfarm Payrolls
The Federal Reserve is caught in the middle. Price pressures have indeed eased a bit, and the core PCE decline makes the market think a rate hike in October is unlikely. Goldman Sachs has even postponed rate hikes until the end of the year. But the labor market is not convinced; once ADP data came out, resilience remains, and Kashkari continues to hawkishly signal that the door for another hike this year is still open. Inflation gives hope, employment holds it back, no one dares to move first, so everyone waits for the Nonfarm Payrolls.
The crypto market is similarly stuck. BTC's upward momentum is weak, and its pullbacks find support, oscillating at high levels with no one daring to take heavy positions before the data. ETH's decline is limited, and so is its rise; ETF and upgrade expectations support it, but it can't break out into an independent trend. SOL rose too fast earlier, and this round of pullback is also quick; first, watch for support. OKB's volatility is small, suitable for long-term holding, but no short-term highlights. XRP still follows declines but not rises, lacking catalysts for improvement.
Now both bulls and bears are waiting. Inflation easing is good news, but strong employment is a constraint. Without Nonfarm Payrolls data, any directional guess is half likely to be wrong. Rather than taking sides early, it's better to wait for the data to land and sentiment to digest, then see how BTC chooses. Take light positions and follow the trend.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH $BTC It's the 14th day of shorting the grid, and I'm starting to doubt my own judgment,
feeling a bit mentally exhausted!
I've held the position for almost two weeks. The price has never returned to the cost line. Last time, bad news suddenly turned into good news, and at midnight today, there was no good news, yet Bitcoin pulled from 83,000 to nearly 85,000.
The most frustrating thing is not just losing money, but the repeated tug-of-war of "it looks like it's going to drop but it just won't." BTC and ETH have failed to break resistance several times; according to previous logic, there should have been a pullback by now, but each time it bounces back. Bad news fully priced in turns into good news, PCE below expectations spikes then falls back, non-farm payrolls haven't come yet, and I'm already getting anxious.
Three grids, and I'm floating at a loss again!!
Tonight is the non-farm payrolls. I know I shouldn't predict the direction, but I can't help thinking:
If the data is weak, will I be forced to hold again?
If the data is strong, will it give me a breather?
Will bad news turn into good news again?
Will bad news be fully priced in again, and then the price won't fall?
Are there any brothers holding positions like me? How long have you been holding? What are your thoughts now?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ETH ETH is currently around $2,705, having reached a 24-hour high of $2,722 before pulling back, with short-term pressure repeatedly near $2,720. The mid-term structure has been somewhat recovering since the rebound in September, but ETFs have recently seen net outflows again, causing fluctuations in capital flow. Key resistance above is at $2,720-$2,750; only if volume increases and it stabilizes there will there be a chance to challenge $2,850-$3,000. On the downside, support is first seen at $2,650-$2,660; if broken, a retest of $2,550-$2,600 is possible. Current volatility is relatively low, and the trend has not yet confirmed a strengthening. In the short term, it is more suitable to observe key levels and capital flow changes rather than chasing longs based solely on rebounds. Today's market situation actually feels quite comfortable for me. ZEC is currently around $1,435, and after surging to $1,493, it started to pull back. The 24-hour drop looks slight, but what's really worth noting isn't how much has fallen, but rather the changing rhythm of the uptrend. Short-term indicators have started to cool down: RSI6 has fallen back to around 48.6, having fallen from a high into neutral territory, and short-term buying is clearly less aggressive than in previous days. Currently, the MACD DIF is still above DEA, but the bullish bars have clearly shortened. If a death cross occurs later, the short-term correction may expand further. KDJ's J value has also turned downward from its high. So now it seems more like: the price hasn't truly broken down yet, but the upward momentum has started to weaken. Of course, the recent fundamentals of ZEC cannot be completely ignored. Recently, large addresses have been transferring ZEC from exchanges on-chain. On September 30, about 2,000 ZEC, worth approximately $2.8 million, was withdrawn from Binance and concentrated at a single address. At the same time, Zcash-related ETF funds also experienced phased outflows. This means the market is not simply "no one wants ZEC," but rather: some are accumulating, others are reducing positions, and short-term longs and bears are repricing. Now let's look at the broader market. The strong record of BTC spot ETFs with net inflows of 9 consecutive days and a cumulative total of about 3.1 billion USD has ended, with the latest single-day rebound$FIL, what a joke, the halving is about to happen, don't blame the knife for being sharp
The halving countdown is about ten days, and FIL is still playing dead. It neither falls nor rises, moving sideways like a flatline on an ECG. Who is this show for?
Don't treat the halving like a resurrection. Every halving in the crypto world gets hyped in advance. Expectations shout bullish every day, but when the day comes, fireworks go off, people scatter, and only chips remain on the ground. Good news turns into bad news, an old script, just with a new batch of believers each time.
Look at the miners: some run, some shut down, but they still hold inventory. On-chain chips are as chaotic as a night market—bottom-fishers, position fillers, stubborn holders, layer upon layer. I just ask: who will pull it up? Faith? Calls from group friends?
This sideways movement now doesn’t look like building momentum, more like fishing. Fishing for that phrase “it must rise after halving.” When it really lands, it might not take off but trigger a waterfall. Is there a safety net below? I doubt it.
Don’t rush, let the bullets fly for a few days. $FIL at this position looks more and more like a bull trap. Not advising you to trade, profits and losses are on you, I just feel—this play is about to reach its climax.$BERA Damn it! This $BERA chart is giving me a headache. At 0.2392, it's purely a capital game with no fundamental support at all. The manipulative whales are calling each other idiots inside, playing with sharp spikes up and down, and retail investors just can't hold on—they're all shaken out by the washouts.
Looking at the K-line, the rebound volume is shrinking sharply, and the resistance around 0.245 is tight as hell. This is a classic bull trap. No matter what others shout, I only trust the short side in this setup.
Trading plan: Short directly around the current price of 0.2392, stop loss at 0.2485, first target at 0.2250, and if that breaks, then look for 0.2180.
Don't say I didn't warn you, this trade goes against the sentiment, so control your position size strictly. Brothers who want to follow, check the market card below and analyze the chart yourself—don't come asking me later why I didn't lead you.
👇👇👇U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday: the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7666 points, the Nasdaq was basically flat, and the Dow Jones edged up. The market rallied during the session but gave back some gains by the close — the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 5.24%, not far from the high of 5.34%. The real big mover was oil: WTI rose 2.75% approaching $93, and gold also touched $4208. The market is trading a tricky combination: the cooling August PCE gave stocks a breather, but as oil prices rise, inflation expectations can't be suppressed. To put it plainly: before the rate decision at the end of the month, the steering wheel is not in the hands of the stock market, but in the hands of long-term yields and oil prices; tonight's nonfarm payrolls report is the next referee.Currently, Ethereum's official data shows the network staking APR is only about 2.6%, which is clearly below the 3%–4% many people imagine. In other words, if your sole purpose in buying ETH is to earn this staking return, it's easy to wonder: Why not directly allocate funds to money markets or other low-volatility yield products? After all, ETH itself has to bear price fluctuations. Suppose ETH earns 2.6% per year by staking but the token price draws back 20% over the same period, that staking gain is quickly swallowed by price fluctuations. Staking yields themselves cannot turn ETH into a traditional "zero-risk interest asset." So I think the logic for understanding ETH should be reconsidered: staking yields are just additional returns from holding ETH, not the core reason to buy ETH. What truly supports ETH's long-term value is still Ethereum's own ecosystem—DeFi, stablecoins, L2s, on-chain settlement, RWA, and the future demand for ETH across the network. The significance of staking is that long-term holders can participate in network security while also earning some protocol layer rewards. Ethereum officially defines staking as part of the network's consensus and security mechanisms, not just as a "wealth management product." Even more interestingly, by 2026, the US market has already started to adopt this$XCH minimum setup is a Raspberry Pi 4 with 4 GB RAM for CLI farming, or 8 GB for GUI farming. (This guide will show how to set up a GUI farm.) Many farmers choose Pi because it consumes very little power.
Plotting, on the other hand, is resource-intensive. Fortunately, once a plot is created, it can be farmed for years. A Pi can be used for plotting, but the speed will be quite slow. The same goes for laptops. In the long run, these are not very good options.
However, for creating your first plot, it’s a good idea to use the device you already have. Once you get a feel for Chia farming, you’ll have a better idea of what to buy later.
Plot storage
For this guide, we will create a single plot. This will require:
4 GB of available memory
If you don’t have that much, Linux swap space can be used, but it will be slow
275 GB of temporary storage space
Hard drives can work, but will be slow
Solid-state drives are much faster; a good choice for this tutorial
RAM is the fastest option (minimum for RAM plotting is 256 GB; if you don’t have that much, don’t worry for now)
108.8 GB of free space for the plot to reside
Solid-state drives can work but are overkill
The vast majority of plots are stored on HDDs
A laptop or desktop with 400 GB of available space will meet these requirements. Micron's earnings report led to a roughly 3% rise to 1097, with customer commitments raised from 22 billion to 32 billion. I'm observing first and not chasing.
Here's what I saw: Q4 revenue about 54.2 billion, non-GAAP EPS about 33.4, next quarter guidance revenue about 61.5 billion, EPS about 38.2, all clearly above market expectations.
Strategic customer agreement amount about 32 billion (mostly deposits), gross margin still around 87%, the AI premium in storage won't ease anytime soon.
The market opened around 1054, dropped to about 1023 during the session, then pulled back to about 1097, with a high near 1099, volume about 44.76 million, quite volatile.
Simply put: the performance is really strong, but the price has already priced in the super cycle, chasing higher is like buying into others' realized emotions, don't mistake the earnings celebration for a free lunch.
I think in the short term, don't treat the beat as a buy signal; first see if it can hold today's high area before deciding whether to follow.
What I do: just observe, no chase.
If it breaks below today's low around 1023, continue down; or if it reclaims about 1099 with a strong move, then consider chasing.
Are you waiting for a pullback confirmation before acting, or do you think the guidance is strong enough to jump in directly?
$MU $NVDA $AMD
#Rate hike expectations delayed, September nonfarm payrolls become the next focus #US Treasury yields frequently hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure not easingThe PCE data obtained by the market this time is indeed favorable. In August, core PCE fell year-on-year to 3.0%, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.2%; Overall PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, both below market expectations. After the data was released, bets on further rate hikes in October cooled significantly, and risk assets were temporarily boosted. But the problem is: improving rate cut expectations does not mean capital will immediately flow back into BTC. What truly suppresses the market is U.S. Treasury yields. Recently, the 10-year yield has hovered around 5.2%, while the 30-year yield briefly broke through 5.6%, reaching its highest level since 2002. In other words, even though inflation data gives the Fed breathing room, the bond market is still telling investors that long-term funding costs are not low. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have further fueled inflation expectations. US-Iran tensions continue to affect transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude recently briefly broke through $100 per barrel, and rising oil prices suggest inflationary pressures may reemerge in the future. High oil prices + high long-term bond yields—these two forces are simultaneously suppressing highly volatile risk assets. So BTC now seems to be experiencing a "tug-of-war" between long and bearish: PCE cooling → rate hike expectations lowering → positive for BTC, but US Treasury yields remain high→ increasing opportunity costs of capital → suppressing BTC valuations. Oil prices are rising→ inflation concerns are heating up→ limiting room for rate cuts. On the ETF funding front, previous continuous inflows have indeed supported BTC, but the latest data#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved
#Bitcoin ETF inflows continue for 9 consecutive days, ETH outflows
Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 197,000, below the expected 200,000, staying under 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, while continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. The labor market is as tough as a rock.
Once this data came out, the market was stunned. Originally, it was hoped that cooling employment would give the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates, but companies verbally express pressure while being reluctant to lay off employees. Rate cut expectations have been dampened again.
For the crypto space, the logic is straightforward: strong employment → consumption and wages hold up → inflation pressure could rebound at any time → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates easily. Goldman Sachs has long "surrendered," abandoning rate cut predictions for this year and even doubling the probability of a rate hike to 20%. If rate hike expectations combine with soaring US Treasury yields, tightening liquidity will hit high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum first.
Currently, $BTC is struggling around $84,000, $ETH is under pressure below $2,700, and after continuous ETF inflows, there was also a single-day net outflow of $149 million. The crypto market doesn't want to go independent; the macro faucet hasn't been turned on yet. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the day the Federal Reserve truly eases."Bottom grinding is not a crash, buy on dips"
The greed index has retreated to 71, the long-short ratio is 1.40, retail investors remain bullish, but the market is uncooperative. ETH slid from 2748 to 2664, BTC slowly declined from 85100 to 83050, like frogs being boiled in warm water during the day. Nasdaq futures fell 0.35%, with no external support.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH fell from 2806, stuck below the Bollinger middle band at 2697 and above the lower band at 2658, still a pullback after a rise, structure intact. BTC is weaker, dropping from 87385 to 83055, close to the Bollinger lower band at 83366.
On the 1-hour chart, ETH's KDJ dropped to 18, clearly oversold, like a compressed spring ready to rebound anytime; but the 2690 middle band is a threshold. BTC's KDJ is only 29, not extreme yet, there is still room for imagination below 82600. Currently, it is a "can't fall further, can't rally" bottom grinding.
Strategy: Buy on dips, do not chase. Try buying BTC in the 82300-82600 range, target 83400-83900; try buying ETH in the 2630-2650 range, target 2680-2700. Light positions, wait for confirmation. For reference only, pay attention to risk control.
$BTC $ETH
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 I've seen ETF wallets selling coins many times.
VanEck's ETF wallet sold $10.76 million through Gemini, including 45.41 $BTC and 2,570 $ETH.
Don't panic yet; this is not big news.
ETF wallets adjusting positions, redeeming, or changing custody are routine operations. What really matters is not how much was sold this time, but whether there are continuous actions afterward.
I've been burned by this before—seeing institutional wallets transfer out and thinking they were dumping, but it was just a process, and the coin price still rose as expected.
Looking at this single transaction alone, $10.76 million is negligible in the $BTC and $ETH markets.
But if in the next few days the same wallet keeps transferring to exchanges, then you should be cautious.
It's too early to draw conclusions now.
If the money doesn't keep moving, don't scare yourself.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC $ETH $BTC just broke $85,000 — a wall Glassnode says buyers finally absorbed after a week of failed tests.
But whales are split: long-term wallets added 41,025 BTC in 10 days (67.93% of supply), while short-term whales sold 30,000 BTC ($2.52B).
ETF streak ended at $148.7M out. Your read?
$BTC The increase in stablecoin turnover speed could indicate prosperity or capital flight.
Frequent transfers of the same batch of stablecoins within a short period can drive up on-chain settlement volume. This may stem from growth in trade, transactions, and payments, or from collateral adjustments, liquidations, and fund withdrawals during market panic. Therefore, high turnover cannot be directly equated with healthy adoption.
To determine the direction, one must see where the funds ultimately settle. If stablecoin balances, protocol liquidity, and independent users increase simultaneously, it indicates activity with retention; if balances quickly flow to exchanges or out of the ecosystem after a surge in transfers, it resembles defensive migration. Speed indicates tension level, while balances and usage reveal the outcome.
It is also necessary to exclude duplicate statistics caused by internal exchange aggregation and bridge splitting. A single user transfer may leave multiple stablecoin actions on-chain, inflating nominal settlement amounts. Comparing adjusted economic transfer amounts with original transfer amounts provides a more reliable judgment.
Truly healthy turnover should be accompanied by broader use cases and more stable balances, rather than sudden spikes only under pressure.
Fast money flow only proves that everyone is active; whether they stay to build or line up to leave depends on the destination.$ETH 🔥 ETH 2,704: The triangle tip is squeezed to the nose tip, 2,700 is the fuse, 2,738 is the explosive
24h range is only 2,673–2,722, a 50-dollar high-low, moving averages tangled together—a typical "end convergence, deep breath before the breakout."
The structure is summarized in one sentence:
2,700 = hourly close above = bull start signal, targets 2,738 → 2,800 → 2,950
2,738 = 9.30 high/supply wall, touched but not held = false breakout
2,640 = flagpole critical point, close below = structure dead, heading to 2,450–2,300
2,600 = strong support line, if broken don’t call it a fake season anymore
Capital flow twists:
On 9.29 ETH ETF slightly outflowed 2.81 million ending 7-day inflow, on 9.30 outflowed 5,621 ETH (about 15.31 million), but weekly still +95,500 ETH; whales added 60,000 ETH in the same period.
=> Institutions stopped buying at month-end, whales quietly picked up: it’s not that there’s no buying, the buying is waiting for non-farm payroll/yield signals.
BTC 84.6K playing dead, ETH 2704 biting the line.
Sideways to the end is not cowardice, it’s "the fuse has burned out."
Hourly close above 2700+ with volume = follow the bulls; touch 2738 with shrinking volume = run; break 2640 = don’t trust any breakout posts.
(Not investment advice · For reference only) $ETH #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key
$ZEC mentioned a few days ago seeing 1280, didn't expect it so fast
Today's lowest price has already started with 1305
Only 2 points away from 1280. This trade gained 5 points profit
Continuing to fleece $ZEC. Previously it rose independently
When BTC and ETH fell, it rose, now it's reversed
Currently forming a downtrend, mainly short on rallies
$CAP surged to a new high of 0.088 yesterday
Every time it surges, it can't hold
It dropped 20% early today
Not very optimistic, the unlock date is approaching
The whales probably harvested a round of shorts
$VVV has more than doubled since listing
I've held short positions for over half a month
Currently also gained over 10 points profit
Large market cap, low support, likely to continue falling afterwards 因为从 $82,500 附近反弹到 $85,000 上方后，BTC 已经完成了一段修复。现在真正值得观察的，是 BTC 稳住之后，资金会不会开始向其他主流币扩散。 我会重点盯这 4 个：ETH、SOL、HYPE、ZEC。 ① ETH：看 $2,750 能不能重新变成支撑 ETH 目前在 $2,700 附近震荡。 如果 BTC 稳住，同时 ETH 放量突破 $2,750，那么下一步可以观察 $2,820–$2,900 区域。 但如果 BTC 往 $85K 上方走，ETH 依旧站不上 $2,750，那就先别急，说明资金轮动还没有真正传导到 ETH。 另外，9 月 ETH 现货 ETF 整体资金表现仍然不错，但 9 月 30 日当天出现约 $59.6M 净流出，短线还需要观察资金能否重新回流。 ② SOL：$120 是短线分水岭 SOL 目前大约 $119 附近。 真正需要看的不是 $119 涨到 $120 这一美元，而是能不能有效站稳 $120。 如果突破并稳住 $120，下一步可以看 $124–$128，强势情况下再观察 $130。 此前 SOL ETF 单日曾录得约 $86.7M 的创【ETH rose 70% in three months, but now is the hardest time】
$ETH surged 70.9% in Q3, climbing from around $1570 to $2700, outperforming BTC by a wide margin.
But when you break down the numbers, the story isn’t that simple. The US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $3 billion in Q3, but on September 30, there was a sudden net outflow of $59.6 million. Currently, ETF holdings are about 5.91 million ETH, accounting for 4.84% of the circulating supply.
So this rally is indeed backed by real money, but the market has already priced in a large portion of institutional demand in advance. For ETH to continue replicating a 70% quarterly gain after rising from $1570 to $2700, the difficulty will definitely increase.
What I’m more concerned about now is whether new spot buying can appear above $2700. If ETF volume picks up again and ETH breaks previous highs, the market still has room to run; but if the price keeps grinding higher while ETFs start to see continuous outflows, that 70% performance might turn into a "good news already priced in" scenario.I'm speechless, woke up early to find $XDP has dropped back to the starting point.
I entered just to try to catch the main force's trading rhythm. The account had considerable floating profits overnight, and I originally planned to exit at the right time to secure this profit steadily.
Unfortunately, after repeated fluctuations overnight, the previous gains gradually evaporated, and the market fell back near the entry price. After some consideration, I chose to stop loss and exit directly. I've only been trading for two weeks but have experienced this situation several times. Small-cap coins are inherently unpredictable overnight, and betting based solely on subjective feelings easily wastes the floating profits you had.
Although this loss isn't large, seeing all the original profits vanish is inevitably disappointing. It also serves as a reminder to myself not to trade impulsively anymore and to make proper trading plans.
$BTC $ETH Yesterday's crypto news summary (Planet Post | Volume View) [This ID's View] Yesterday's market main theme: The core trading logic lies in delayed rate hike expectations, with September nonfarm payrolls becoming the biggest winner for the market going forward. After a slight cooling of PCE, the market did not immediately ease pricing but left the suspense to nonfarm payrolls; Long-term US Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels, suppressing the upside of crypto assets. The market showed a pattern of pulse rebounds and pullbacks after surges, with funds mainly engaged in short-term games without large-scale trend capital inflows. In the short term, do not be misled by a single-day rebound. The current macro market is still data-driven, and the quality of nonfarm payroll data will directly reshape interest rate pricing and the BTC major central market direction. 1. Macroeconomic News: Core PCE data edged down, market pricing in the probability of the Fed's October FOMC rate unchanged to 64%, rate hike expectations delayed, December rate hike probability repriced, US long-term Treasury yields remaining high, and the US dollar index repeatedly fluctuating. Fed officials continued to speak hawkishly, emphasizing that inflation is still insufficient and employment resilience remains the biggest risk, with unanimous attention focused on the upcoming September nonfarm payroll report. The market unanimously expects about 90,000 new nonfarm payrolls in September. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be reignited, pushing US Treasury yields higher and putting pressure on BTC and gold; If significantly below expectations, rate hike expectations will be further delayed, marking a recovery window for risk assets; Neutral data is highly likely to maintain the current volatility pattern. On October 1, the U.S. SEC issued a proposal to relax rules for investment companies custody crypto assets, allowing investment managers to do soHistorical data shows that Bitcoin indeed tends to have significant positive returns in October. From 2010 to 2024, the monthly returns in October were almost all positive—except for 2014 and 2018. More notably, October in 2017, 2021, and 2023 all started or continued substantial rallies, with gains of +46%, +41%, and +29%, respectively.
The context for 2026 is somewhat different: the market is currently still in extreme fear territory, with Bitcoin prices hovering around $58,000-$60,000. However, historically, October rebounds often occur at times when market sentiment is similarly pessimistic. If historical patterns hold, $60,000 could be a key watershed for this cycle.80u challenge 1000u
Day 31
Account balance 440u
US stocks collectively plunged at the open, Micron added 100 shares at a loss, then raised the price and closed one-third of the position. Because the Nasdaq dropped at the open, and controversy over Google's new model caused a sharp pullback in the account. Fortunately, Nvidia and Micron performed well, allowing the balance to maintain at 440u. Continuing to hold Google, a cash-generating company shouldn't be too bad. Can the US-Iran war stop? Oil and US bonds have both skyrocketed $ZEC
The veteran of the privacy sector couldn't hold up this morning either, retreating by 6.03%.
ZEC price is 1337, with a trading volume of 1.97 billion USD still ranking high, but the money stepping in is clearly less.
The 1300 line is lost, so don't rush the rebound. $ZEC
$ZEC ZEC had previously fallen from near $1,700 and is now fluctuating around $1,400. Many are still waiting for $2,000, but from the flow of funds and market performance, short-term pressure has clearly increased. Previously, there was large selling in the market: whales placed sell orders for about 15,000 ZEC, and another address also transferred and sold about 25,000 ZEC, indicating that profit-taking at high levels is increasing. After a rapid price rise, such capital realization is not uncommon, but it also means the selling pressure above will take time to digest. ETF funds are also showing signs of cooling. Grayscale ZCSH previously attracted continuous capital attention, but recently saw a single-day net outflow of about $30M. After capital shifted from inflow to outflow, ZEC needs new buying orders to maintain its strength. The macro environment is also worth watching. Early October nonfarm payrolls and inflation data remain core market variables, and US long-term Treasury yields remain high, putting pressure on highly volatile risk assets. If economic data reinforces expectations for high interest rates, highly volatile assets like ZEC may be affected first. From a technical perspective, the $1,400 area has become a short-term battleground for bulls and bears: 🔸 Upside resistance: $1,460 → $1,500 🔸 Key support: $1,400 → $1,355 🔸 If $1,355 is breached: next focus is $1,300 🔸; if $1,500 is reestablished, it will be more worth watching$XCH Farming Beginner's Guide
So, you want to become a Chia farmer? You've come to the right place!
At first, Chia plotting and farming may seem daunting, but it's a relatively simple process:
Get the hardware
Install Chia
Run and configure Chia
Create a plot
Start farming
This guide will walk you through each of these steps. We will build a Chia farm, including syncing a full node and creating your first plot. This will take anywhere from an hour to several days, depending on many factors. But don't worry—most of the time you won't need to keep your computer active.
Information
This guide intentionally downplays technical details. It is only meant to help new users set up a basic farm, preferably using equipment they already have. Subsequent pages on this site will cover the concepts introduced in this guide in more detail.
Ready? Let's get started! Dogecoin has no total supply cap, and it has worn this "flaw" hat for more than a decade. Looking at it from another perspective, this is precisely its survival design.
Other assets tell stories based on scarcity, but Dogecoin tells a different one: a fixed annual increase of about five billion coins, neither more nor less. The total supply grows, but the issuance rate dilutes year by year; the first few years see dilution, and after ten years, it becomes just a trickle. Holders don't have to worry about flooding or about incentives drying up.
Miners are the beneficiaries. The fixed new rewards mean those maintaining the network always have wages, and bookkeeping never becomes unprofitable over time. The security of a chain relies on a group of people continuously investing electricity and equipment, and Dogecoin buys this loyalty with uninterrupted output.
The mechanism also changes the coin's temperament. Things destined to increase have no meaning to hoard; spending is the right way. So it circulates within the community: tipping, pooling funds, paying bills. Only spent coins have vitality; those lying in wallets are just numbers.
Textbooks say money is precious because of scarcity, but $DOGE refuses that. It uses continuous issuance to remind the market: money is made to be spent. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ZEC taught me a lesson again this round……
Long at 1348, 50x leverage.
When I entered, I thought:
1305 already had a drop, there was a rebound around 1340, it should be able to push up again.
But as soon as I got in at 1348, it went straight back down to 1341.
7 points don’t seem like much, but with 50x leverage, my account started hurting immediately 😂
Now the biggest dilemma isn’t whether it will rise or not,
but—
Should I wait for it to rebound, or admit the mistake and stop loss?
1378 was today’s opening price,
1305 is the low point,
and it pulled back a bit around 1340.
If it can get back above 1355, there might still be a chance to reach 1378;
but if it can’t hold 1340, then the previous low at 1305 will come back into focus.
This time I really realized:
50x leverage doesn’t make you earn fast, it makes you hurt fast when you’re wrong.
Now let’s see how $ZEC moves next.
Anyone else trading $ZEC?
Do you think it will go to 1355 first, or drop back to 1305?
Leave your thoughts in the comments and let’s see who can guess this move right.$BTC $ZEC $ETH Only after playing with crypto for a long time do you realize that a crash is never the hardest part. What truly wears down patience and wears down your mindset is endless sideways trading. During a big drop, it's actually simple: panic, stop losses, lie flat—one strike and the dust settles, and the pain is brief and decisive. But sideways trading is different; it's like a frog in warm water—no dramatic ups and downs, yet constantly draining your emotions and composure. The market doesn't move at all, and your account neither gains nor loses—that's the most agonizing state. Watching the market swing back and forth by a few cents, your positions feel tasteless and regrettable to discard. Hold on—if you don't break out for a long time, you'll waste time every day, and your anxiety keeps growing; Sell it, but fear a rally right after exiting; missing out is even more frustrating than being stuck. The most deadly thing in sideways trading is never losses, but internal friction of uncertainty. News in the community keeps circulating—some say a breakout is imminent, others say they'll crash the market. Watching other coins move in turns and take small profits, while your own holdings remain stagnant. Restlessness, anxiety, and self-doubt follow, and the trading discipline you once set slowly collapses amid daily sideways consumption. Many losses aren't due to the market, but from the restlessness of sideways trading. Unable to stand the loneliness, you start trading frequently, repeatedly T-traded and frequently swapping positions, and your good chips are wiped out; Unable to resist taking chances, you blindly add positions and gamble on breakouts, turning your spot into a pressure order. When the real trend arrives, the principal is gone, the mindset is shattered, and you can no longer hold onto the principalU.S. Treasury yields press down, crypto market holds its breath
Last night, PCE inflation seemed to ease, and $BTC took advantage to touch $85,500, but the momentum didn’t hold, quickly falling back to the $83,000–$84,000 range. It rose fast and fell fast; the market feels like it’s being held down by an invisible hand.
The real tightening spell is the U.S. Treasury. The 10-year yield remains near 5.3%, a multi-year high. With government bonds offering a risk-free return of over 5%, non-yielding assets like $BTC instantly lose appeal. Which institution dares to chase highs blindly?
Strangely, ETFs are still buying. Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days totaling about $3.1 billion; buying hasn’t stopped. But on the other side, profit-taking is waiting for an opportunity, and high yields are draining liquidity. These two forces hedge each other, so the price can only tug back and forth between $83,000 and $85,000. $ETH has even turned to outflows, and $SOL is struggling to stay unaffected.
Sentiment isn’t pessimistic; the fear and greed index remains in the “greed” zone at 73–74. To break the deadlock, we need to watch employment data closely—only if Treasury yields ease can the crypto market truly lift its head.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 💥💥💥💥💥【Must Watch Today】October 2: Summary of Important Information Today:
$NEAR Intents experienced a security incident due to a contract vulnerability when interacting with Omni's deposit and withdrawal infrastructure, with preliminary losses of about 3.8 million USD. The team stated the vulnerability has been fixed and promised full compensation; services were temporarily suspended, and some chain deposits and withdrawals were restricted.
The project team said they will report the case and track the funds; social media raised doubts about its security and degree of centralization. Reports show NEAR briefly dropped over 8%.
$HYPE Yesterday, 20,210 HYPE were repurchased and burned at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of 89.05 USD, worth about 1.8 million USD. So far, Hyperliquid has burned a total of 49.09 million HYPE, worth about 4.29 billion USD, equivalent to 4.91% of the maximum supply. Income over the past 30 days was 55.89 million USD.
$ETH Still waiting for its biggest bullish signal.
2017: ISM broke above 56, then ETH rose from 10 USD to 1,400 USD.
2020 to 2021: ISM broke above 56, then ETH rose from 88 USD to 4,800 USD.
Today, ISM reports 54.5, slightly below the expected 54.8 and previous 54.6. Waiting for a breakout! If BTC holds steady at $85,000 today, I won't chase BTC; I'll immediately look at these 4 coins.
I'll directly focus on these 4: ETH, SOL, HYPE, ZEC
If BTC really stabilizes again at 85,000, my first reaction definitely won't be to chase BTC, because BTC has already gained some ground from around 83,000 to 85,000. Secondly, I myself have also opened long positions.
ETH:
$ETH is fluctuating around 2700. After BTC holds at 85,000, if ETH breaks through 2750, it can continue to target 2800–2900; if BTC rises but ETH can't even hold 2750, just wait and see.
SOL:
SOL is around 118 to 119. After breaking 120, it can target 125–130. When real rotation happens, it usually won't just rise by 1%.
HYPE:
$HYPE has been relatively strong recently, approaching $89. When BTC breaks through, if HYPE holds above 90, it may continue an independent rally.
ZEC:
$ZEC first needs to see if it can turn strong; currently, ZEC is relatively weak compared to BTC and ETH. After BTC holds above 85,000, no rush to bottom-fish; focus on whether it can shift from weakness to leading gains. If capital starts to spread out, high-volatility coins may see opportunities.
BTC is responsible for confirming the market trend. As for whether to chase BTC? I’m more interested in seeing who in the back row hasn’t gotten on board yet.