BITWU
BITWU
Bitwu 星球唯一账号！ x.com/bitwux
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Anthropic already has over $130 billion in cash on hand, so why are they still choosing to push for an IPO amid a worsening financing environment?
The main reason is that AI is a closed loop, and Anthropic has too much debt.
Anthropic has committed to investing at least $518 billion over the next decade to purchase computing power and infrastructure, about 80% of which cannot be casually canceled.
The private equity market can no longer sustain such a large-scale capital demand long-term, and Wall Street happens to need a target that can directly invest in leading large model companies.
So this IPO is imperative and may become the valuation anchor for mutual investments and price support within the entire AI industry.
Institutions can directly use this benchmark to verify the business logic behind the previous trillions of dollars invested in AI infrastructure.
If even Anthropic’s exaggerated growth rate can’t support its valuation, then data centers, computing power rental providers, and even the credit markets that rely on AI capital expenditures to survive will likely face serious challenges.
OpenAI is still very clever, watching from the sidelines—interesting!
The $30 billion financing negotiations need to speed up; if funds aren’t locked in soon, they will be drawn away by Anthropic’s IPO.
BITWU
Insiders reveal:
Anthropic is aiming to start trading as early as around November 16, 2026, targeting to complete its listing before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26.
The market expects its IPO valuation to be between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, potentially making it one of the largest IPOs in history;
Each of Anthropic's seven co-founders holds about 1.4%,
and it is estimated that their net worth will exceed $13 billion each:
随机游走跑了 1 万条 BTC 未来路径，模拟下来 2034年中位数结果达148万美元！
Willy Woo 用模型模拟了比特币的未来走势，主要考虑了「回报率随规模衰减」。
他认为合理区间在第 28 到第 50 百分位，对应 2028 年顶部约 $24.1 万到 $41.3 万美元；
此前 Sminston With 分享了另一项将 BTC 模拟推演至 2034 年的蒙特卡洛实验，共运行 5000 次。
其结果显示，没有一次模拟价格低于当前约 8 万美元的水平；中位数结果约为 148 万美元，最低 5% 的结果也达到约 46.4 万美元。
但注意两点：
1️⃣ 这是模拟和回测表现而已，不是预测；
2️⃣ 随机游走只看历史波动，不管 FOMC、ETF 资金流这些短期变量。
长期看路径，短期看关口，根据之前数据预测也有一定的参考价值。眼下 BTC 还在 $8 万附近，先过本周 FOMC 这关再说。
你觉得 2028 年顶部能到哪？
最近越来越觉得，AI、Payment、RWA 不该被当成三条完全独立的叙事。
举个很现实的例子：
跨境电商卖家货已经卖出去了，但平台回款可能还要等 14–28 天，备货、物流、广告却都需要提前花钱。
这时候，稳定币能改善资金结算效率，但无法直接解决一个问题：谁愿意提前提供资金，又凭什么相信商户能按时还钱？能不能自动化这个流程，甚至让 AI 机器人流畅的搞定？
你看它们更像链上经济活动的三个环节：
1️⃣ AI：负责执行任务、产生交易与决策需求；
2️⃣ Payment：负责资金转移与结算；
3️⃣ RWA：让链上资本有机会进入真实资产与融资市场。
这也是我最近关注 @DowProtocol 比较感兴趣的地方。它探索的不是单纯把资产代币化，而是尝试利用电商平台的经营数据、应收账款和回款机制，把真实商户的融资需求与链上资金连接起来。
再往前想一步，我觉得 AI、Payment、RWA 可能本来就不该是三条完全独立的赛道。
就像前面聊到的，AI 可以辅助商业决策，Payment 解决支付结算，RWA 信贷则有机会解决资金从哪里来、如何周转的问题。在这个框架里看 @DowProtocol 它做的不是又一个证券代币化产品，而是把电商应收账款、商户风控和回款机制接到链上资金。
但这里我也有个疑问：资产上链容易，真正困难的是如何证明资产真实、控制坏账，以及确保资金能够收回来。
这些问题不会因为用了区块链就自动消失。
所以我认为，未来公链的竞争，如果始终停留在 TPS、TVL 和资产发行数量上，可能还是太局限了。
相比链上有多少钱，这些钱能不能进入真实的商业活动，形成可验证、可持续的资金循环，或许才是 RWA 下一阶段最值得期待的地方。
继续关注这个赛道，继续关注 @UTechStables
Dow Protocol
Stablecoin payment networks compete corridor by corridor.
A cheap onchain transfer is only one part of the equation. FX spreads, conversion costs and local payout infrastructure can outweigh the savings on blockchain fees.
The harder problem is liquidity on both sides of the transfer. A dollar stablecoin may move globally in seconds, but converting it into local currency at a competitive rate still depends on market depth, reliable off-ramps and access to the local banking system. These conditions vary sharply across currency pairs.
@BNBCHAIN’s established stablecoin and DeFi markets offer a strong foundation for this convergence. For @UTechStables, expanding into real payment, financing and settlement use cases is a natural direction.
1️⃣ BTC trend support levels related;
Strategy paused increasing BTC holdings last week and instead repurchased preferred shares;
Wintermute believes that bitcoin:native currently moves in tandem with AI-related stocks, and the market's reaction to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation data is crucial:
If the FOMC wording is hawkish or inflation exceeds expectations, it may trigger sell-offs including BTC.
The firm is not pessimistic about the future but remains cautious until the FOMC concludes and BTC retakes $82,500, with support seen at $76,000 below.
2️⃣ Other aspects
Hyperliquid disclosed new progress in the compliant perpetual market; Aviva launched tokenized shares of a GBP money market fund on XRPL.
Traditional finance and on-chain infrastructure continue to integrate, but product progress does not yet directly translate into token demand.
Currently, there is insufficient new evidence to warrant changing long-term allocation discipline.
My childhood dream was to become a scientist, but my final job was a small farmer.
I was born in a modest family in Kolkata, India, as a boy.
I passed away at 78 from ischemic heart disease after retirement.
Four people born in the same second lived to 94, 28, 0, and 55 years old respectively.
If it were you, where would you be born and who would you become?
#1 in 8 billion
Recently, security issues have been occurring frequently, and I can't keep up with writing about them!
Everyone can follow my daily security reminders, pay more attention yourself, and protect your assets!
Entry →
BITWU
Even emails from the official mailbox could be phishing! 🚨
Another bizarre incident:
Today, users of the hardware wallet Passport received a "recall notice":
The sender appeared to be from the Foundation's official domain, with a subject roughly saying "Your Passport funds are at risk." Some emails even included real names, addresses, and purchase records, ultimately tricking you into pasting your mnemonic phrase into a web wallet.
The official statement so far: Cloudflare API keys were stolen, and the CEO added that the customer service email was likely compromised as well; funds are safe, hardware has not been breached, keys have been revoked, and malicious domains have been taken down.
Last week, Keystone also confirmed a leak of customer information from their official store, but the exact leak method is still unknown.
This is terrifying; the hardware wallet market is on high alert!
1) Any email asking you to enter, export, or change your mnemonic phrase is a scam.
2) Do not click email buttons; manually visit the official website to verify announcements.
3) When buying hardware wallets, try to use a proxy address and avoid giving your real address.
Strongly recommend bookmarking this!
连官方邮箱发来的，都可能是钓鱼！🚨
又一个奇葩事件：
今天硬件钱包 Passport 的用户收到一封「召回通知」：
发件人显示是 Foundation 官方域名，标题大意是「你的 Passport 资金有风险」，部分邮件还带着真名、地址和购买记录，最后诱导你把助记词贴进一个网页钱包。
官方目前的说法：Cloudflare API 密钥被盗，CEO 补充客服邮箱很可能也被拿下；资金安全、硬件未被攻破，密钥已吊销，恶意域名已下线。
上周 Keystone 也确认官网店铺客户信息泄露，具体如何泄露还不知道。
太吓人了，硬件钱包市场风声鹤唳！
1）邮件让你输入、导出或更换助记词，一律当骗局。
2）不点邮件按钮，手动打开官网核对公告。
3）买硬件钱包尽量用代收地址，少留真实住址。
强烈建议收藏！
FOUNDATION
ANNOUNCEMENT: SPAM EMAILS HAVE BEEN SENT THAT APPEAR TO HAVE COME FROM OFFICIAL FOUNDATION DOMAINS.
We have traced this back to one or more compromised API keys on Cloudflare, and have already revoked all API keys.
The malicious domain in the spam email has been taken down.
Funds stored on Passport are safe and Passport hardware is not compromised.
We are working nonstop to discover exactly what happened and will put out a report ASAP.
