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Inflation risk has not yet been eliminated — inflation verification, PPI data + retail data to be released soon! #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test Yesterday's unexpectedly strong CPI inflation accelerated the market's pricing of Fed rate hike policies and inflation, while also putting risk markets under pressure again. However, inflation and rate hike risks have not disappeared. At 20:30 later, the PPI will once again verify the CPI data. Previously, PMI data already showed that inflationary pressure has transmitted to the upstream supply chain, and the PPI can show whether this inflation has transmitted to the corporate side. According to current data expectations: Below expectations is positive, meaning inflation has not transmitted to the corporate side, thus weakening the impact on the consumer side. Meeting expectations is neutral to dovish, meaning September inflation is still mainly driven by a one-time energy shock. Current data is insufficient to prove inflation has transmitted to the corporate side, which is good for downstream consumption and positive for risk markets. Exceeding expectations is hawkish data, further deepening market concerns about inflation and rate hike probability pricing, which is negative for risk markets. Therefore, tonight's PPI focus is whether core PPI exceeds 0.3% and whether service PPI continues to rise; these are two key factors determining inflation pressure. Additionally, retail data will be released simultaneously. Weaker retail expectations are good for current inflation concerns, but should not be overinterpreted because weaker retail only reduces demand-driven inflation pressure, while the biggest current inflation pressure comes from energy. So, PPI and retail data need to be considered together. If PPI meets