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ASML, making money quietly
The Q3 earnings report will be released on October 14
#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点
Usually not as popular as Nvidia, but in the AI chip industry chain, its ability to make money is really strong
Currently, Q3 revenue is expected to be between 11 billion and 12 billion euros, with a gross margin of 55% to 57%
This profit margin is already quite competitive in manufacturing
This earnings result should still be very good
AI chip demand is very strong, and big manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung want to expand advanced process capacity, which cannot bypass ASML's EUV lithography machines
Another thing to pay attention to is how many new orders there are; buying equipment is one thing, but whether customers are willing to continue investing to expand production is also very important
As long as EUV orders remain strong, ASML still has great prospects in this AI capital expenditure cycleDon't just focus on the K-line! OKX funding rates have already diverged, with $SOL longs getting more and more crowded, while $ETH is being suppressed by shorts!
Here's the OKX 30-day funding rate for you guys:
$SOL: +0.7666%
$ZEC: +0.3355%
$BTC: +0.1208%
$ETH: -0.1319%
The most interesting part of this data set is the completely different funding structures of $SOL and $ETH.
$SOL current rate +0.0085%, 30-day cumulative +0.7666%, longs keep paying, indicating a more concentrated bullish sentiment on the contract. But don't mistake a high funding rate for a bullish signal; the more crowded the position, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal.
$ETH current rate -0.0015%, 7-day and 30-day rates are also consistently negative, showing that shorts are paying more prominently. If the price strengthens and shorts start to cover, the rebound could exceed expectations; however, a negative funding rate itself is not a buy signal.
$BTC and $ZEC funding rates are also positive but overall lower than $SOL.
My take: Watch out for $SOL longs getting crowded, and keep an eye on whether $ETH's price and funding rate diverge. Don't short just because the funding rate is high, and don't bottom-fish just because the funding rate is negative. What you really need to capture in trading is the misalignment between market expectations and price trends.It's been 19 days, and the number of people buying $BTC on Coinbase is still less than those selling.
This premium index basically shows whether buyers in the US are willing to pay a higher price.
A negative value means they are not only unwilling to pay more but are also pushing prices down.
-0.12%, the number isn't big, but it's been 19 consecutive days, which is quite noticeable.
My first reaction isn't that the price will drop, but that people over there simply haven't come back.
Occasionally, Asia can still hold the market up, but once the US stalls, the market loses a leg.
The most common mistake retail investors make is rushing in to buy the dip when they see a negative premium, thinking it's a discount.
Actually, it's not a discount; it's that no one is competing to buy.
I'm more inclined to wait and see, waiting for this number to turn positive first.
Otherwise, like me, an old retail investor, I'll just be out in the wind at the peak again.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC I can say this: over 95% of the crypto space is made up of air coins, trash coins, and pyramid scheme coins. Those big blue-chip coins like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL aren't impressive because they're inherently superior; they just came out earlier, have more stable teams and foundations, and have indeed been tested through more than a decade of market ups and downs. Let me ask, what are the real applications in the crypto space? It's nothing but endless rhetoric and layers of nested packaged projects. Some projects have market caps in the billions, yet their actual daily revenue is less than $100. I can frankly say many projects are zombie projects. Meme coins have completely detached from the previous circle culture and community totems. The truly strong meme coins have deep roots formed by large communities and years of shared ideas. Today's meme coins are purely gambling tools, instruments for whales to harvest retail investors, and some even serve as money laundering channels. In the future, don't talk about meme coin culture or that culture anymore—it's just gambling.$ZEC Wake up, this is a rebound, not a reversal
Brothers, yesterday saw a broad rise, but volume didn't increase, funds didn't flow in, and resistance wasn't broken
This rally, frankly, is just short covering plus an emotional bounce. Shorts got squeezed, forced to buy back, so the price was pushed up — this isn't strong buying, it's shorts panicking. Once the shorts are cleared out, the fuel for the pump runs out, and there's no real buying support underneath.
Smart money data is even clearer: the shorts overall are underwater, with only about 20% still profitable. The worse the shorts are doing, the more this looks like a bull trap; the spike is just giving shorts a position to cover. The more it rallies, the more it looks like fishing, specifically targeting those chasing the rally.
The strategy is simple: short near 1330, target a drop back to 1200. Set stop loss above 1360, and keep position size light. Don't fear the pump; the higher it goes, the better the shorting opportunity. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $ETH has been slowly rising for 4 consecutive days and is finally about to recover the second large bearish candle. However, as the price approaches 2560, the pressure it faces is also increasing significantly. The short-term trend has already started to turn downward. It's uncertain if there will be a large buy order to support it soon! Everyone is now focused on the CPI data to be released in a couple of days. Aggressive funds began bottom-fishing a few days ago, while more cautious funds are still watching or even fleeing to safe havens. Therefore, the subsequent rise or fall will depend on the attitude of the big players. In the short term, there is pressure from a technical rebound correction; in the long term, there is support from fundamental undervaluation. The strategy of buying low and selling high in short-term swings and gradually bottom-fishing in the long term remains effective!Completely devastated
$RVN dropped 23% in just three days, with the price falling from $0.0022 to around $0.00169.
Checked recent news: On October 12, the Korean exchange officially stopped RVN trading, involving three trading pairs with KRW, BTC, and USDT.
Previously, Bg had delisted RVN/USDT on September 24, and bn also announced it would stop supporting RVN trading in the Brazil region.
Even earlier, Ravencoin faced chain reorganization risks due to a consensus mechanism vulnerability, causing some exchanges to temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals.
Losing trading channels consecutively in a short time, combined with previous security incidents, naturally impacted market confidence.$LAB This car is already so heavy, the old boss has pocketed all the money, and still wants him to take it out to pull it.$OKB has been a bit different these past couple of days. It has slowly climbed back over the past three months, with a market cap of $2.65B.
The biggest news is from October 6: Circle, Ripple, SC Ventures, and QRT all invested simultaneously in OKX, valuing it at $25 billion. Note this is valuation, not market cap. OKX founder Star Xu stated, "I'm not short of money, what I want are allies."
Circle stablecoins, Ripple payments, SCV Singapore capital,
QRT hedge fund, the lineup looks quite impressive. In the same month, NYSE parent company ICE plans to partner with OKX to tokenize US stocks, with the first phase covering 63 NYSE-listed companies.
If tokenized US stocks succeed, it will be OKX's biggest alpha; if not, OKB is just a trading platform token.
As for me, I am a firm holder of OKB. Besides BTC and ETH, this is the most worthwhile mainstream platform token to hold. Even during major market downturns, it can chart its own independent course, just for that reason! Reviewing ETH these days, I first shorted around 2670, then reversed to go long around 2500, and now I'm preparing to take profits.
When I opened the short at 2670, it was mainly because after dropping from a high point, it hadn't managed to reverse the trend; each rebound peak was lower than the last. At that time, I felt that around 2670 was more like a pullback rather than a direct strong rebound, so I followed the downtrend and shorted.
Later, it dropped to a low of 2405. When it reached this point, I started to consider whether to keep holding the short: after a sharp drop, chasing further down didn't seem to have good odds. Then the price returned to around 2500, and I saw it pull back and the lows started to rise, so I closed the short and reversed to go long around 2500.
Now ETH is around 2570, and on the 4-hour chart, it has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, showing short-term strength compared to the past few days. But the hourly Bollinger upper band is around 2578, and the 24-hour high is roughly at the same level, so it has hit immediate resistance. I feel this position is unstable, so I exited first.
Looking ahead:
On Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released. I'll wait for the data to see how the market moves. Volatility might be relatively high before and after the data. No operation, no analysis, just relying on luck; I feel embarrassed even to share this record. While others are running, $STRK has strong selling pressure, low trading volume, insufficient support, and bearish signals pressing down hard above. I was just waiting for a rebound to open a short near 0.11165 without hesitation.
The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
Have a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection afterward.
Now at 0.10232, the return is +417.37%. This short position really feels great; the big profit was worth the wait. Close 80% of the position first, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. Don’t let the profit turn uncomfortable if it falls back; if it continues to drop, let the profit run.
Now is not the time to rush; wait for the next opportunity. The market is not short of chances, but patience is lacking. For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak.
$BNB $ETH Single Coin Transaction Linkage｜Last 15 Minutes
$ETH spot volume increase is more prominent, with contract end-stage buy ratio rising. Spot/contract transactions are 2.4/0.6 times the 15-minute average volume converted from the previous 1 hour; spot/contract prices are -0.28%/-0.26%. Active buying at contract end-stage is 42.2%.Afternoon Market Analysis:
After a round of pullback in the morning, buyers re-entered the market with strength, and Bitcoin rallied again.
From the 15-minute candlestick chart, we can see:
All short-term moving averages have turned upward, prices are steadily running above the three moving averages, capital is clearly flowing back, and bulls have regained short-term initiative. Trading volume remains active, and the pullback did not result in a deep sell-off, indicating strong support below.
Key Price Levels
$BTC Support: 83200-83500
Resistance: 84300-46000
$ETH Support: 2530
Resistance: 2580-2600
The morning's pullback washed out some weak holders, with ample support at low levels and capital unwilling to provide too many low-priced chips. Currently, the short-term trend is strong again, but near the heavy resistance zone above, so avoid blindly chasing highs.
Afternoon suggestion:
Buy Bitcoin on pullback to 83200-83500, target 84500
Ethereum follows the same trendThis rebound has ZEC leading the way
$ZEC I will raise my short-term rating a bit.
It rose about 9% in the past 24 hours this afternoon, with the price returning to around 1328, and a decline of about 2.1% over the past week. This recovery already carries weight.
But I still won’t say the correction is over yet.
After a rapid rise, what needs the most attention is how it performs when it stops: whether it can hold steady at a higher level or if it retreats as soon as the rise pauses.
At present, the repair strength can be acknowledged, no need to immediately bring out the previous highs.
If the subsequent pullback is limited and it continues to advance, then there is reason to judge the strong rebound as turning into sustained strength.
$SOL is also recovering, but the repair task is heavier.
It rose about 3.2% in the past 24 hours this afternoon, but still fell about 6.9% over the past week; this rise has not yet filled the previous drop.
My attitude is to first acknowledge the improvement, without raising expectations too much for now.
Next, the rise needs to be continuous, not just a daily intraday spike followed by giving back the gains.
$JUP needs attention for the pullback during its strength.
This afternoon it updated near 0.363, up about 4.2% over the past week, but compared to around 0.381 last night, the price has already retreated about 4.8%.
The phase direction hasn’t worsened yet, but the short-term evaluation from last night can’t be applied.
I will watch to see if it can stop this pullback. The gains so far are an advantage, but whether it can hold depends on new performance.$BTC stabilized first after a week of decline
After a week of selling, $BTC stands above $82,900.
The hardest hit wasn’t $BTC, but the altcoins.
How this number is calculated:
82,900 is the bottoming point, not the breakeven point.
The portion that dropped in the previous week hasn’t been recovered yet.
Who is placing orders here:
The Fear and Greed Index is 57, indicating neutrality.
Neutral doesn’t mean people are buying, just that no one is rushing to sell.
Altcoins have absorbed most of the decline, indicating the money hasn’t left, it just moved back into $BTC.
Once the US inflation data is released, the money that moved back will decide where to go next.
Bottoming and reversal are two different things.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 $BTC Brothers, is it really the right time to add to my ETH position now? Waiting online, urgent! But honestly, I already have the answer in my heart—adding to the position is basically pulling the plug on myself!
Looking at the overall margin rate of 0.10% in my account, my palms are sweating cold.
$ETH ETH: full position 5X, entry price 2718.24, mark price 2610.28. Floating loss -88.16U, ROI has already dropped to $ETH -20.77%. This mess is basically a bottomless pit; when the market falls, it leads the charge down, and when the market rises, it just plays dead. BCH: full position 10X, floating profit +69.34U (+150.72%), base position 460U, still the strongest pillar on the field. $BCH BCH $SOL: full position 20X, floating profit +34.63U (+44.31%).
The 0.10% lifeline! As soon as the market dips by just 0.1%, the hard-earned profits from BCH and $SOL, along with my principal, will be instantly liquidated on the full position! Nothing left at all! Adding to the losing ETH position at this critical moment is not bottom fishing; it’s like lighting a bomb!
Moreover, ETH shows no signs of stabilizing now, purely catching flying knives. What do I use to add? Taking margin from BCH and SOL will only speed up liquidation, and adding more funds is just handing my head to the exchange.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Do 99% of blockchain token projects eventually go to zero?
This question is hard to stamp with an exact "99%", but the mainstream conclusion in industry research is that "a very small number of tokens survive long-term, while the vast majority eventually go to zero or effectively to zero." The key is how you define "going to zero": price dropping close to zero, being completely abandoned by the market, team disbandment, or simply having no circulating market value.
1. Origin of the "99% go to zero" figure
Common basis comes from statistical studies on cryptocurrency survival rates:
- A 2018 study analyzed thousands of tokens and found about half "disappeared or lost vitality" within one year after listing.
- At bear market bottoms, the number of active coins under various statistics often remains only a small fraction of the bull market peak; many altcoins from 2017-2018 had no trading volume, no development, and prices approaching zero by 2019-2020.
- In the long term, a large portion of coins listed on CoinMarketCap have very low daily trading volume and market cap, regarded as "zombie coins."
So although "99%" is not a precise academic conclusion, the direction that "the proportion of coins surviving long-term with ecological value is extremely low" holds true.
2. Why most tokens eventually go to zero
1. No real demand: Most projects issue tokens just for fundraising, without actual users, use cases, or revenue sources.
2. Team runs away or stagnates: After fundraising, the development team fails to deliver, does not open source or maintain; after community interest fades, prices naturally collapse.
3. Liquidity dries up: Delisting from exchanges, market makers exit, trading volume drops to zero, and prices can be crushed by any sell order.
4. Homogeneous competition: Easily copied technical solutions quickly get cheaper alternatives, early projects lose their barriers.
5. Regulatory and compliance risks: Being classified as securities, delisted, or sued can be fatal.
6. Many "shady" projects: Copying code casually, buying hype, then exit after the pump; these make up a high proportion, naturally pushing the zeroing rate up.
3. "Going to zero" is not sudden but a process
Many coins don’t vanish overnight, but:
- Price drops over 90% from the peak;
- Trading volume continuously shrinks;
- Development stops, social media updates cease;
- Eventually delisted from major exchanges;
- Finally only historical records remain, no trading, market cap approaches zero.
4. Which types are more likely to survive long-term
- Projects with real technology, developer ecosystems, and long-term roadmaps (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum, usually considered infrastructure);
- Stablecoins and some Layer 2s with actual use cases and revenue models;
- Projects continuously supported by large institutions or mature teams with compliance capabilities;
- Leading projects with network effects, whose tokens have practical use even if prices don’t rise.
5. Conclusion
The "99% go to zero" statement essentially means: the vast majority of altcoins, especially new projects born in bull markets, will die in bear markets over the long term. Buying such assets requires mental and financial preparation for principal loss.
However, "eventually going to zero" is not an inevitable law but a statistical probability. The real question is: can you identify the 1%? If you lack fundamental analysis skills and are driven by influencer hype, on-chain buzz, or "listing on major exchanges" noise, your probability of ending up in the 99% is even higher. 💳 Stablecoin payment cards are being "swiped" more and more powerfully!
In Q3, the total transaction volume through stablecoin cards reached 4.31 billion USD, up 33% from 3.24 billion USD in Q2.
Notably, $TRX led with 23.2% of the total volume in the quarter. Based on 4.31 billion USD, that's approximately 1 billion USD transacted via stablecoin cards, a market share large enough to show that blockchain infrastructure is gradually connecting with real spending needs. $ZEC Don't get carried away! This move in ZEC looks more like a bull trap, not a real reversal!
Brothers, are you watching ZEC surge up suddenly and the group chat starting to shout that old coins are reviving and the big bull market is back? Don't rush to fully trust it yet, let's peel back the layers and talk it through.
The price did jump all the way to 1349.30, looking very strong. But be careful! This move is largely driven by short positions being forced to liquidate — smart money data shows many shorts are now at floating losses, with only about 20% of positions profitable.
A rally fueled by forced liquidations can be fierce, but the actual new buying volume is insufficient, and the trading volume hasn't continued to expand. Simply put, this height is built on the shorts' blood, not genuine buying power pushing a main upward wave.
A rebound does not equal a reversal. Don't shout bull market just because of a few big green candles. A true reversal requires sustained volume increase plus holding above strong resistance levels to confirm, and neither condition is met now.
Dan's view: focus on the area around 1330, with the first target at 1250, and further down at 1200. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Originally wanted to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself. When the bottom of the plate was grinding, $ENA was consolidating at the bottom, and buying pressure strengthened. I advised at the time to hold if the pullback didn't break the support, and not to get shaken off before the launch. This kind of position is the most dangerous for itchy hands to cut recklessly.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Later, I gave the answer directly: long at 0.22247, pulled up to 0.23628, with a floating profit of +309.92%. This piece of meat was enjoyed comfortably. First take profit on 70%, keep the remaining 30% at cost price protection, let the profit run if it continues to rise, and don't let the profit become uncomfortable if it falls back.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don't fall in love with stocks. The market is waited out, profits are held out.
Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot. There are still opportunities, don't be anxious, I will notify you immediately.
$ZEC $SOL Still watching the market at 3 a.m., with over 1000 U in unrealized profits but too afraid to sleep—is this normal? Have you noticed that what really causes insomnia is never the losses, but the moment when unrealized profits start to retract? $NEAR with 10x leverage, 181% returns, unrealized profits of 979 U; $ETH with 20x leverage, unrealized profits of 287 U; $BTC steadily contributing 96 U, price hovering around 83,638. The numbers look great, but from a derivatives perspective, these positions themselves are part of the market's fragile points. High-leverage longs stacked in the same direction mean that once liquidation triggers, the decline will be automatically amplified. If the funding rate remains persistently positive, it indicates longs are paying to hold positions, sentiment is hot but not extreme yet, and this state is most prone to quick squeezes after false breakouts. The bullish logic is that profit-protecting behavior precedes price reaction. As more traders choose to take profits, selling pressure is released early, which actually creates room for subsequent rallies. $BTC's sideways movement near 83,638 is not weakness but more like waiting for CPI data to provide direction. $ETH's 2533 level is a key battleground; holding above it would revive altcoin sentiment and risk appetite would spill over beyond mainstream coins. But the risks are clear: a 20x leveraged $ETH position can be nearly halved with a 5% adverse price move. If CPI exceeds expectations, rising real interest rates will suppress risk assets, and the derivatives market's first reaction is always deleveraging, not a slow decline. Behind $NEAR's 181% returns lies an equally rapid potential drawdown. My own judgment is, currently Can Ethereum rally all the way before the interest rate hike meeting?
My answer is straightforward: it won't rally.
First, look at the volume. This rebound from 2406 to 2564 gained over 150 points, but the 4-hour trading volume is even smaller than during the decline; the buying power simply can't keep up.
The area from 2560 to 2600 above is a previous dense liquidation zone and also where the 30-day moving average is pressing down. Every time it approaches, it's an opportunity for bears to add positions.
Looking at the capital side, BitMine has already announced it will stop increasing ETH holdings, and the number of validators exiting the queue has surged from 166,000 to 851,000. A large amount of staked ETH will unlock in the next two weeks.
Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing.
The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show most officials support continuing rate hikes, so liquidity will only tighten further.
Therefore, this rebound looks more like handing chips to the bears.
I still hold the short position I entered at 2671, with a floating profit of 400%.
If it dares to break 2600, I will add to my position. The short-term support below is 2497; if broken, it will drop to 2400.
Rally before the rate hike? I don't believe it.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report? Market trends often emerge when market disagreements are at their peak.
Looking at $ETH's four-hour structure. After a surge testing the upper resistance zone, some profit-taking occurred, but during the pullback, there was no significant volume increase in bearish candles, indicating limited selling pressure and clear support below. The lows are gradually rising, the Bollinger Bands are slowly opening upwards, and the middle band support continues to follow the candlesticks. This pullback looks more like a consolidation of chips during an uptrend rather than a trend reversal. The mid-term bullish structure remains intact.
As mentioned in the previous article, during Ethereum's advance from 2500 to 4000, each rally cycle has been compressing: initially taking four weeks, then narrowing to about two weeks, with the pace clearly accelerating. Once the bulls confirm a start, this round will likely replicate or even accelerate this path. Currently, it has just broken out of the bottom consolidation range, and bearish sentiment still exists; most people's perception remains stuck in the inertia of the sideways phase.
The difference in trading cognition often shows whether you can stick to your judgment at the end of a consolidation. As long as no sudden major macro negative news occurs, the combination of sentiment recovery, capital inflow, and short covering can form a force, and a large bullish candle could break the current rhythm at any time.
The stance remains unchanged: currently maintaining a bullish view, patiently holding positions awaiting catalysts. $BTC 🚀 $RSR — BULLISH BREAKOUT WATCH
RSR is showing bullish momentum following a reported 48% rally, with 0.002589 acting as a key resistance level. If buying pressure continues and the breakout is confirmed, the price could extend toward 0.00270.
📊 Trade Setup:
Entry: 0.00234–0.00238
Stop Loss: 0.00218
TP1: 0.00245
TP2: 0.00258
TP3: 0.00270
👀 Key Watch: A confirmed break above resistance could support further upside, but watch volume and price action before expecting continuation.
#DailyOrbit ETH surged to 2578 but softened again! A whale cashed out $21 million at a high position, can't get past the 2570 hurdle?
ETH just surged to 2578.44, seemingly about to break through, but was slapped back by bears to 2567.95 (+1.32%). The 5-minute MACD fast and slow lines are converging above the zero axis, the red bars are shrinking, and the bullish momentum is clearly weakening.
On-chain data reveals the painful truth:
According to Lookonchain monitoring, whale 0xb927 sold another 5000 ETH ($21 million) two hours ago during the ETH rebound. In the past 40 days, this whale has cumulatively sold 15,000 ETH, cashing out $65.5 million. Meanwhile, two wallets associated with the Ethereum Foundation also transferred 4393 ETH (about $11.13 million) to Kraken, raising market concerns that the foundation is also selling at highs.
Ethereum spot ETFs had a total net inflow of $26.3199 million yesterday, marking five consecutive days of net inflows. Fidelity's FETH led with a single-day inflow of $14.928 million, followed by BlackRock's ETHA with $8.4943 million inflow. Although there was still a net outflow of $542 million last week overall, short-term funds are flowing back.
Resistance above: 2578 → 2601 → 2630; support below: 2520 → 2468. 2578 is today's high point; a breakout with volume is needed to target 2600; breaking below 2520 could lead to another dip toward 2500. Today ETH is rising more sharply than BTC, and I'm more interested in looking at the contract positions behind it.
Binance perpetual data shows ETH around $2567, up 2.68% in 24 hours; BTC around $84013, up only 1.17%. Both are rebounding, but ETH's elasticity is much greater.
But there's another detail: ETH's open interest increased from about 2.328 million to 2.348 million contracts, with the latest funding rate still around -0.00324%; BTC's open interest rose from about 92,900 to 93,500 contracts, and its funding rate is slightly positive.
Price is up, positions are increasing, yet ETH's funding rate remains in negative territory. This indicates that this round of recovery is not just a simple "full bullish reversal" story; divergences remain in the contract market.
I will focus on whether ETH can truly hold above around 2580. If the price continues to rise afterward, and both trading volume and position structure cooperate, this recovery will be more convincing.
Data is a snapshot at the time of release, for market observation only.Don't just focus on the K-line! OKX funding rates have already diverged, with $SOL longs getting more and more crowded, while $ETH is being suppressed by shorts!
Here's the OKX 30-day funding rate for you guys:
$SOL: +0.7666%
$ZEC: +0.3355%
$BTC: +0.1208%
$ETH: -0.1319%
The most interesting part of this data set is the completely different funding structures of $SOL and $ETH.
$SOL current rate +0.0085%, 30-day cumulative +0.7666%, longs keep paying, indicating a more concentrated bullish sentiment on the contract. But don't mistake a high funding rate for a bullish signal; the more crowded the position, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal.
$ETH current rate -0.0015%, 7-day and 30-day rates are also consistently negative, showing that shorts are paying more prominently. If the price strengthens and shorts start to cover, the rebound could exceed expectations; however, a negative funding rate itself is not a buy signal.
$BTC and $ZEC funding rates are also positive but overall lower than $SOL.
My take: Watch out for $SOL longs getting crowded, and keep an eye on whether $ETH's price and funding rate diverge. Don't short just because the funding rate is high, and don't bottom-fish just because the funding rate is negative. What you really need to capture in trading is the misalignment between market expectations and price trends.I really don't understand, truly don't understand, why every time Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, these small coins start to fall.
Why is that?
Actually, the answer is hidden in the market.
When Bitcoin and Ethereum rally, all the funds get pulled to chase the mainstream, and altcoins suffer short-term outflows.
This is an iron rule.
But conversely, once Bitcoin and Ethereum stop and move sideways, funds will flow back out to altcoins looking for opportunities.
MAGIC has surged from 0.05 to 0.16, more than tripling, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. It's very normal for the main force to wash out some positions while the big market is absorbing funds.
Now the price is stabilizing around 0.124, with EMA5 (0.128), EMA10 (0.123), and EMA20 (0.111) all converging, which is a typical sign before a market shift.
Once the direction is chosen upward, the second wave will start.
I have positions myself, currently holding floating profits, no rush to sell. In terms of operation, you can lightly enter long positions around 0.12, set stop loss below 0.11, first target at 0.14, and if it breaks through, look at 0.16.
The big market's money will sooner or later flow back to altcoins, just patiently wait for rotation.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $RSR rose 47% in 24 hours, but that's not the most important thing—the key point is the 4H volume.
At noon today, the $RSR 4H volume was 111 million tokens. The average volume for the same period over the past 7 days was 300,000 to 500,000 tokens. This candlestick is over 200 times the average volume.
Consider the scale: normally, the 4-hour trading volume is a few million tokens, but suddenly someone dumped or pumped in one go, causing the volume to multiply by 200 times.
The price rose from 0.00166 to 0.00258, an increase of 55%—all within one candlestick. That upper shadow (0.00166→0.00258→0.00236) indicates that someone sold at the high of 0.00258.
The question now is: is this volume truly institutional activity, or is it wash trading to lure buyers?
Looking at similar tokens—$W rose 48% yesterday and continued up 22% today, $S surged then pulled back. Such extreme volume spikes can continue short-term but rarely complete in one go.
For $RSR, watch the 0.00165 support next; if it holds, there's a chance for consolidation at a high level, but if it breaks, treat it as a single-day pulse.
What do you think about this 200x average volume spike—is it real major players entering or retail investors acting together? $RSR S — A single-day surge of 43% followed by a pullback, what does this upper shadow line indicate?
It indicates heavy selling pressure around $0.069.
Rising from $0.04633 to a high of $0.06911, then being pushed back to $0.05919 means about a 14% drop near the top. Combined with a holding volume of only about $2.12 million (very thin order book), this upper shadow line can only mean two things: profit-taking concentrated at the high level, or a false breakout in a thin market quickly pushed back. Either way, the conclusion is the same — $0.0691 is a clear short-term resistance, and without a volume breakout, rebounds to this level tend to stall.
Currently at $0.05919, with a market cap of $230 million ranked 176th. Strength line at $0.055, supports at $0.055 and $0.0462; resistances at $0.0691 and $0.08.
In the next one to two weeks: pessimistic (40%) scenario breaks below $0.055 to retest $0.0462; baseline (40%) scenario digests selling pressure between $0.055 and $0.0691; optimistic (20%) scenario breaks out with volume above $0.0691 targeting $0.08.
Plan: The upper shadow line is not fully digested, so no chasing. Wait for a pullback to $0.052-$0.056 or a volume breakout above $0.070 before acting. Stop loss at $0.045, targets at $0.0691 and $0.08. Position size within 5%.
Like, follow, and stay tuned.Brothers, it's painful, really painful, so painful. I shorted at 2490, and now I'm deeply trapped. Looking at the price of 2570 on the screen, my heart is bleeding.
Could $ETH really break through 3000?
Honestly, when this thought flashed through my mind, my hands were shaking.
But I forced myself to calm down and repeatedly watch the market; I still don't believe it can go up!
Don't even mention 3000, I think it’s hard for it to truly hold above the 2600 level.
Look at the volume of this rebound, it’s getting weaker and weaker, purely a fake rally pushed up by short covering, with no decent incremental funds at all.
From 2600 to 2700 above are all trapped positions dumped earlier, the selling pressure is as heavy as Mount Tai.
That news about the whale selling BTC to buy ETH just now, coming out at this position, looks more like a deliberate smokescreen by the main force to trick retail investors into chasing highs and taking the bag.
Now that I'm trapped, I’m reluctant to run, and I don’t want to run.
I will never cut losses at this position and hand over the blood-stained chips.
This market is a psychological game, seeing who breaks first.
I will hold my short position to the death; time will prove who is right.
$BTC
$MAGIC
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 At 8:30 PM on October 14, the US September CPI will be released. This is the last inflation data before the FOMC on October 28.
Currently, market expectations are quite conflicted. Overall CPI is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.6% or 3.7%.
Market views are as follows:
If core CPI falls to 0.2% or even lower, the probability of no rate hike in October will continue to increase, and the CME's bet on a December rate hike will also ease. If US Treasury yields can move down a bit, $BTC has a chance to stabilize above 8.3 and target 8.6 or 8.7.
If core CPI is at 0.3%, the chance of a rate hike in October rises again. If US Treasury yields continue to hold up, $BTC will most likely first test the low around 80400, or even dip near 79000.
In any case, data serves the market trend. At the current position, which is neither high nor low, opening new positions is not recommended. The US stock market opens tonight, so wait and see first.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $HYPE
$HYPE has recovered but trading volume is not leading; can protocol revenue replace evidence of capital?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 84.679—87.316 USDT, change +1.38%, trading volume about 9.7 million USDT.
This window is positive and the trading range has shifted upward, indicating some price support recovery. There are still fee and rights mechanisms between active protocol trading and coin holding demand; spot trading volume is not net capital inflow and cannot directly identify buyer identity.
If the rise near 87.316 continues to retrace, keep the partial recovery explanation; if fee improvement can be verified and the pullback holds a higher area, then increase the judgment of independent demand.Bitcoin suddenly touched 84,000 at midnight and was smashed back down.
In the past 24 hours, 57,000 people were liquidated, most of them longs.
On-chain analyst Darkfost said 53% of Bitcoin investment capital was entered above 83,000, with the heaviest chunk stuck between 84,000 and 85,000.
The bears are sniping, no need to guess they're watching closely here.
The CFTC hasn't been idle either; the new regulations were publicly announced on October 13, with public comments open until December 14, after the holiday season.
My personal view: regulatory implementation is a long-term positive for BTC, but in the short term, no one stepping in means bear ammunition.
My small base position hasn't moved, hovering around the 82,000 cost line.
What I'm afraid of isn't a drop, but another washout with no warning.
Sunday is just that kind of day; watching won't help, better not to look.
If you entered above 83,000, how long are you prepared to hold? $BTC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
What’s next for BTC
Liquidation Map
- Long liquidation pressure below: about $1.3 billion
- Short liquidation pressure above: about $1 billion
Short positions are closer to the current price, while long positions are deeper and thicker.
From the perspective of "who is easier to sweep first," the market is more likely to first sweep the short positions upward.
🟢 Upward path (higher probability)
Current price → Break 84,700 → Squeeze 85,177–85,333 short positions → Short covering itself creates buying pressure → Target around 85,800.
Characteristics: low resistance, like a short squeeze, not necessarily a trend reversal.
🔴 Downward path (more painful but needs to be triggered)
Break below 82,950 → Trigger main long zone at 82,240 → If macro/US stocks don’t cooperate, long positions face a chain of forced liquidations → Below 81,500 there is almost no thick position buffer.
Characteristics: once opened, the drop speed is faster than the rise speed.
My inclination: up first, then pull back.
The reasons are simple:
1. Short positions above are closer to the current price, so sweeping shorts "costs less"
2. The strongest long position below is at 82,240, about ~2.2% away from the current price; two minor supports must be broken first to reach it
3. The weekly chart still shows a rebound repair at 80.4k, not a mindless bull market continuation
4. Before CPI (10/14), the market prefers to first squeeze shorts, then deliver the macro answer $XAU morning analysis clearly indicates: do not chase the rise at 4220‑4240 resistance; the rebound is an opportunity to short.
The rebound is predicted to be a technical correction, not a trend reversal; as expected, the price faced pressure and fell.
From prediction to execution, the logic is complete, and multiple short positions were all realized.
Jenny never relies on guessing, but speaks based on objective market logic. #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ "An Air Force Medical Case"
Patient: Summit Wind Blower
Chief Complaint: $BTC, $ETH, $ZEC short positions trapped, short-term holding turned into long-term investment, accompanied by anxiety, insomnia, and repeatedly watching the market.
Current History: Interest rate hike expectations heat up again, inflation, oil prices, and macro pressures exert continuous stress. Bulls dream of a bull market, bears at the summit have been freezing for months.
Diagnosis: Short Position Trapped Syndrome (Chronic Phase)
Treatment Advice: Not seeking to get rich overnight or double up, just hoping the market shows mercy and gives another big push. If freed from the trap, promise not to open random orders for three days.
Doctor's Advice: Interest rate hike expectations ≠ market must fall, the market does not turn because individuals are trapped. Others wait for a bull market, we wait for a waterfall; others hope for new highs, we wait to get free from the trap.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 STRK at $0.103, are you chasing it?
Up 320% in 30 days, doubled in 7 days, everyone shouting "the next SOL"—but tomorrow, October 15, 127 million tokens unlock and hit the market, on-chain TVL only up 5%, yet the price has tripled. Is this wave really the start of the "L1 transformation grand narrative," or just the last frenzy of whales selling on good news?
First, the surface: it’s gone crazy up, but now it’s starting to stall.
STRK violently surged from 0.03-0.05 to 0.126, up 260-320% in 30 days, one of the strongest altcoins recently. Now it’s pulled back to 0.103, down 5-15% in 24 hours, with trading volume exploding to hundreds of millions of dollars. The candlesticks tell you: the mid-term bullish structure is intact, but short-term high-volume stagnation, RSI overbought then falling—all technical indicators shout one thing: it rose too fast, time to take a break.
First thing: L1 transformation narrative, but it’s still just a proposal.
The core catalyst is Starknet’s plan to transform from Ethereum L2 to an independent L1, aiming to become the first quantum-resistant network by 2027. CEO Eli Ben-Sasson publicly supported this at Token2049, sending the market into a frenzy.
Sounds impressive? Here are three harsh facts:
First, it’s still at the proposal stage. No governance vote, no timeline, no migration plan. In plain terms: it’s just pie-in-the-sky.
Second, on-chain TVL only rose 5-7% to $168 million. Price tripled, but real adoption barely moved. This is narrative-driven, not fundamental explosion.
Third, the quantum resistance story won’t materialize until 2027. What you’re buying now is a three-year-ahead expectation.
I’m not saying the narrative is fake. I’m saying—the bigger the narrative, the farther the payoff, and any turbulence in between can halve your position.
Second thing: 127 million tokens unlock, don’t pretend you don’t see it.
On October 15, 127 million STRK tokens unlock, accounting for 1.7% of circulating supply, worth about $13-15 million. Mainly for early contributors and investors.
Sounds small? Let me do the math:
Current 24-hour volume is hundreds of millions of dollars, so $13 million unlocking looks small. But the problem is—STRK has already tripled, early investors’ cost might be only 0.02-0.05.
With 2-5x profits on the table, do you think they’ll choose "long-term belief" or "take profits now"?
More frightening: unlocks continue until March 2027, with a batch every 15th of the month. This is not a one-time negative event, but a chronic bleed over two years.
Third thing: technicals tell you this is a "pullback within strength," not a "bottom buy after pullback."
Key data:
Price far above mid-term moving averages, short-term severely overbought
Daily volatility often exceeds 15-20%, explosive fluctuations
0.100-0.103 is a psychological level, repeatedly tested today
In plain terms: this is walking a tightrope at high altitude, not picking up money at the floor price.
Support: 0.100-0.103 (today’s low) → 0.09-0.095 (stronger support)
Resistance: 0.110-0.115 → 0.124-0.126 (previous high) → 0.14+
Holding above 0.103 means a rebound. Breaking below 0.100, next stop 0.09.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
Bull factors:
Strong L1 transformation + quantum resistance narrative, market buying in
7-day rise 80-110%, 30-day rise 260-320%, violent trend
Staking protocols support STRK+BTC, real use cases
Huge volume, high capital participation
Bear factors:
127 million tokens unlock on October 15, hitting the market tomorrow
On-chain TVL up only 5%, price up 3x, serious divergence
Proposal stage, distant implementation, can be disproved anytime
Down 97% from ATH 4.41, heavy trapped positions above
BTC oscillating around 84,000, CPI data on October 14, macro uncertainty
Short term (1-7 days):
Don’t chase longs. Unlock + CPI data, two risks combined. Wait for 0.100-0.103 to stabilize with rebound candlesticks + volume recovery, then consider low-leverage long, stop loss 0.095. Target 0.11-0.115.
If it breaks 0.100 and accelerates down, short lightly with stop loss 0.108, target 0.09.
Mid term (1-3 months):
Narrative still intact, as long as proposal discussions continue, mid-term bias is bullish. But ideal entry is a pullback near 0.09 or lower, build position gradually. Chasing at 0.103 now, one unlock dump and you won’t hold.
Spot DCA investors:
Start buying in batches below 0.09, don’t rush in at narrative peak to be the bag holder.
STRK fell from 4.41 to 0.03, down 99%, everyone called it trash.
Then it tripled, everyone started shouting "the next SOL."
You’re not investing, you’re stuck in a cycle of chasing highs and selling lows.
Fear missing out when it rises, fear zero when it falls—end up making no money and losing your mind.
On unlock day, regardless of rise or fall—
If it rises, don’t FOMO chase highs.
If it falls, don’t panic sell.
The narrative is real, but your cost must be truly cheap.
$BTC $ETH $STRK After Majhi's floating loss and Sister Bao's harvesting, Boss Eleven takes action: 30x BTC/ETH short positions + closing ZEC, with a hidden secret in the portfolio adjustment
Following Majhi's big brother's 600 million short position floating loss of 50 million, Sister Bao's 50x long triple kill to secure profits, and the entire network's short positions being crushed by a nuclear-level squeeze, the market welcomes another heavyweight player's hardcore portfolio adjustment—"Boss Eleven" strikes late at night, closing ZEC shorts on September 18, then opening 30x heavily leveraged BTC/ETH shorts, with a rhythm so precise it sends chills down the spine.
Trade details breakdown
BTC: 30x sell to open short, 4.03 million U heavily positioned
At 23:03, opened short at an average price of 80,781.2, transaction value 4.039 million U. Betting directly above 80k on BTC, forming a "whale consensus" with Majhi's big brother's high-level short, but 30x leverage has extremely low tolerance; a 3.3% adverse move risks forced liquidation.
ETH: 30x sell to open short, 257k U following the mainstream
At 23:09, opened short at an average price of 2,575.69, transaction value 257k U. Six minutes later than BTC, the mainstream double short combination takes shape with highly consistent direction, betting on a synchronized macro pullback.
ZEC: 5x buy to close short, 1.462 million U precise hedging
At 22:03, closed short at an average price of 1,462.98, transaction value 1.462 million U—exactly one hour earlier than the double short opening. Combined with the previous data of "ZEC short position liquidation of 4.72 million in 12 hours," Boss Eleven's early close perfectly avoided the altcoin short squeeze, showing sharp portfolio adjustment sensitivity. $SOL
Solana’s appeal comes from fast transactions and an ecosystem built around trading, payments, and decentralized applications. The bigger question is whether activity stays healthy when market excitement cools. A busy network during a bull run is one thing; retaining users during quieter periods is another. Consistent usage will tell a more meaningful story than short-term price movements.. $HBAR
Enterprise-focused blockchain projects face a different challenge from retail-driven networks: turning technical capabilities into repeatable commercial use. Hedera’s distributed ledger technology offers a different approach to blockchain infrastructure, but real adoption must be judged by meaningful activity and sustainable demand. Partnerships can attract attention, yet actual usage is what gives the long-term story substance.$GRVT
Trading platforms need more than incentives to build loyal communities. GRVT’s longer-term challenge is whether traders continue using its exchange infrastructure when rewards become less attractive. Retention, execution quality, liquidity, and user experience are important factors to evaluate. Short-term campaign attention can bring users in, but sustainable activity is a much harder achievement.#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ TSMC has pre-released Q3 revenue, setting a new record, driven mainly by HPC/AI chip orders. The market is now focusing on the official earnings report and earnings call on October 15, which is also a barometer for the global AI industry chain.
First, watch the gross margin. The previous guidance range was 65%-67%. The mass production of the 2nm process will increase short-term depreciation costs. If the gross margin falls below expectations, it could trigger a valuation downgrade in the AI sector; if it holds at the upper end of the range, it will strengthen the narrative of high AI prosperity.
Second, watch the Q4 and full-year revenue guidance. The market is most concerned whether AI orders can continue to grow strongly. The order intensity from major customers like Nvidia and the release pace of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity are key to the sentiment of the semiconductor and Nasdaq AI sectors going forward.
Third, watch capital expenditures. Previously raised to $60-64 billion, focus on whether management will raise it again, which would indicate confidence in medium- to long-term AI demand.
Fourth, watch the 2nm yield and expansion progress, as well as statements related to US plant construction, which concern long-term capacity planning and geopolitical risks.
This news will also indirectly affect the crypto market. AI prosperity exceeding expectations is positive for AI concept-related tokens; conversely, weak guidance will lead to a correlated decline in the Nasdaq, suppressing overall risk appetite. $BTC $ETH #AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ Chip LOF premium at 30%: Retail investors are speculating on "silicon content," funds are saying "stop following," and the 10:30 resumption is a stress test
Invesco Great Wall's global chip LOF premium has surged to over 30%, and the company issued an overnight trading risk warning, suspending trading directly until 10:30 AM on October 12 — to translate: something with a net asset value of 1 yuan is being grabbed at 1.3 yuan on the market, fund managers are more panicked than retail investors because LOF is not a new stock, and a collapse in premium would cause a bloodbath.
This crazy move is very A-share style:
When US semiconductor stocks, Nvidia, ASML, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rise, domestic retail investors who cannot buy US stocks flood into the "global chip LOF" as a substitute;
LOF has a subscription arbitrage mechanism, but QDII quotas are tight, subscription and redemption are slow, and the time difference hits US market close, so there are few chips in the market, and speculative capital can push the price sky-high;
A 30% premium means you pay 130 yuan to buy a basket of overseas chip stocks worth 100 yuan. When large subscriptions are released and arbitrage players sell off, the premium returning to zero is not a 30% drop, but a "net asset value unchanged, price collapse of 30%." Last night I was still debating whether 2.11 could be surpassed, but ZRO directly stepped on it today
Besides the two rockets RSR and W on today's gainers list, the real trend breakout is LayerZero: ZRO is currently priced at 2.384, up about 12.7% in 24h, reaching a high of 2.3886. The 2.11 resistance level I was watching last night has already been left behind; in the same sector, Wormhole's W rose over 35%. The cross-chain interoperability sector is truly rotating real money today.
There is no single major catalyst in the news; it's more about sector sentiment combined with the old narrative of full protocol revenue buybacks. CoinCodex crowned it "Star of the Day" at noon. Technically, moving averages are bullish, MACD is opening up, the super trend at 2.274 is firmly supporting, but RSI has reached 75.7, and nearly 80% of the latest trades are active sell orders, with profit-taking ongoing.
Two reminders: OKEx's 24h trading volume is about 3.89 million USDT, more than double last night but still not deep liquidity; the monthly unlock on October 20 is only eight days away, and early holders are increasingly eager to cash out.
I don't chase this kind of acceleration phase. Watch if the intraday high of 2.388 and the upper Bollinger band at 2.447 can hold with volume. On pullbacks, first look for support at 2.309 and the MA5 at 2.362. A low-volume surge is likely to retrace some to make way for the unlock. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZRO #LayerZero #CrossChain$ZEC sisters! It's 1348! The shorts are really stunned this time! 🚀
Weekend long positions set up beautifully and secured
Yan Yan honestly says, this wave of ZEC breaking out is really not just pure luck!
Behind it are four fires that directly ignited the market!
🔥 Macro support: The market environment gave funds the opportunity to speculate.
🔥 Governance expectations: Block speed adjustment combined with the halving mechanism, the market started to reprice.
🔥 Institutional narrative: ETF-related news keeps fermenting, attention continues to heat up.
🔥 Short squeeze: The higher the price rises, the greater the short pressure, liquidations in turn push the market higher.
Plus, the privacy sector is back in the market spotlight, naturally raising the heat for this wave of ZEC!
Remember: Narrative determines attention, funds determine the rise, shorts determine the acceleration!
But after the surge, don’t blindly chase; Yan Yan only trades with logic and plans!Two wallets related to the early funding of the Ethereum Foundation transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, worth about $11.13 million.
These addresses received ETH allocated by the Foundation ten years ago, so the market immediately speculated "the Foundation is selling coins again."
But it needs to be clarified: these wallets are not the Foundation's current official wallets, and transferring to an exchange does not mean the coins have been sold.
What is really worth watching is whether further transfers continue, and whether there is an actual reduction of ETH within Kraken.
#Ethereum#ETH fluctuates after hitting $2,500 $SAND
Gaming tokens face a simple but difficult test: does the game remain enjoyable when token prices are not moving? The Sandbox has built its identity around user-created experiences and digital ownership. Long-term interest depends on whether creators and players have reasons to return. Ecosystem development matters, but lasting engagement is what separates a gaming economy from a short-lived market narrative.Rebound in the same frame, but funds are not aligned
Both $BTC and $ETH are rising, but smart money has already cast its vote with their positions.
On the BTC side, bulls hold $1.84 billion in positions with unrealized gains of $38.9 million; bears have lost $20 million. At least from the position perspective, bulls currently have the upper hand and the structure is more stable.
ETH, however, is clearly weaker: short positions outnumber longs, and both sides are losing. This is not a healthy rally, but more like a tug-of-war amid disagreement.
More importantly, there is selling pressure. BTC sold $11.69 million and bought $7.85 million; ETH sold $10.82 million and bought $7.83 million. On both sides, sellers are more active, and a new round of selling is outweighing the rebound.
So the conclusion is simple: BTC’s position quality is stronger, while ETH is relatively weaker. But strength does not mean chasing the price. Selling remains active, and the rebound could be crushed at any time.
My choice: acknowledge BTC’s relative strength but do not chase the highs. Wait for selling pressure to be absorbed, wait for buyers to regain control, then discuss the next step. For now, patience is more valuable than impulsiveness.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $LIT
Liquidity is essential for any trading market, but it can become especially important when volatility rises. Lighter’s development as an on-chain trading platform puts execution, market depth, and user experience at the center of its story. The important distinction is between attention around a platform and durable demand for its token. Those two things do not always move together.