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$W Damn, a 70% increase in one day, the sudden surge makes me want to short again! Looking at the news, there are two main reasons for this surge: first, Hperliqiud jumped on its bandwagon aiming for a cross-chain ecosystem; second, a whale's early large-scale profit layout triggered a follow-up frenzy! I think the short-term increase is almost at the end, but I can't act immediately because this kind of news stimulus usually pushes the price up over 110% (based on my past observations). It's only up 70% now, including the spike, so there's still a 30-40% tail rally left. So I want to wait a bit first. If I short later, I will share the actual trades for everyone's reference.CPI and PPI Incoming｜BTC's Next Step Depends on Macro Signals
This week, focus on U.S. inflation and employment data. CPI, PPI, retail sales, and initial jobless claims will influence the market's pricing of the Fed's future interest rate path.
Two key points to watch:
① Whether inflation is cooling: If core CPI is below expectations, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may come under pressure, giving risk assets a chance to recover.
② Whether the economy is overheating: If inflation or employment data is strong, rate hike expectations may rise, and BTC could remain under short-term pressure.
$BTC Key levels:
Resistance zone above at 84,500–85,000
Before data release, the market is prone to expectation-driven trading and short-term volatility. Don’t rush to bet on direction; focus on the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC volume-price reaction after the data is released.
Macro drives expectations, price confirms direction. Patience for signals is more important than premature bets
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ Transferring such a small amount of Ether to the exchange to sell is most likely to fund new innovative projects. I don't see any problem with that; maintaining the Ethereum mainnet requires spending money. Programmers need funding, projects need funding, and supporting the ecosystem requires funding—there's nothing wrong with that.
I just hope Ether drops so I can get on board. I bought two batches at 2000 and 1750, and since I buy more as it drops, my overall position.
#DailyOrbit $STRK This 50x short position was opened at 0.1066, currently floating with more than double profit. Not sharing the order, purely a review of the logic.
This wave pulled from 0.038 to 0.1268, more than doubling in the short term. Despite positive news (privacy pool breaking 2 million), it surged then fell back, a typical "good news priced in" scenario. On the 4-hour chart, there are consecutive upper shadows at high levels, volume increased but price couldn't push higher, indicating chasing funds can't keep up and profit-taking is concentrated. $BTC
Short-term moving averages have turned down and crossed, price broke below the 5-day and 10-day lines, down 14% intraday. After a sharp rally at high levels, sentiment fades, and if buying funds dry up, a sharp drop follows. The 50x leverage short at the high resistance zone rides the bearish momentum from capital divergence. $ETH
Now approaching the 0.10 whole number level, with moving average support around 0.093 below. Don't be greedy with high-level shorts, keep some for a breakdown, protect profits first. Never stubbornly hold high leverage; making a profit is the right move. When market sentiment fades, don't catch falling knives. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 Four consecutive bullish days have reached a critical point! Where to next? Recently, Bitcoin has risen for four consecutive days, gaining over 1% on October 12, reaching a high of $84,150, and reclaiming the $84,000 level. Previously, it dipped near $80,000 before rebounding, indicating some support in this area. The main driver behind this rebound is a slightly eased macro environment: U.S. long-term Treasury yields have declined, international oil prices have fallen, WTI has again dropped below $90 per barrel, reducing market concerns about further policy tightening, and some funds are more willing to allocate to volatile assets like Bitcoin. Interest rate expectations also show that the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October exceeds 80%. From a technical perspective, the 50-week moving average is an important watershed. Bitcoin approached $78,800 in September, then stabilized above this moving average; it broke through $86,000 again in early October. This pattern resembles early signals from the 2015, 2019, and 2023 upward cycles. The first resistance above is at $87,000, about $3,000 above the current level. This position marks the highs of rebounds in late September and October, accumulating some sell orders to break even and bearish limit orders. To continue upward, spot trading volume needs to increase significantly. If volume breaks through $87,000, resistance above is sparse, and Bitcoin could quickly surge another $3,000 to test $90,000. From a mid- to long-term perspective, the market structure is becoming more stable. The MVRV ratio rose to 1.54 as of October 11, higher than the 365-day average of 1.44.My Levels:
Level 1: $5.408
Level 2: $5.533
Level 3: $5.667
$NEAR bounced from $4.305 and keeps printing higher lows. Price sits near $5.32, just under the $5.53 to $5.67 resistance zone. Support-1 near $5.25 is the first defense, and $4.998 invalidates the idea. Reason to act now: buyers are defending dips while RSI cools, so a push through $5.408 opens $5.533 and $5.667. Wait for confirmation, not hype.
#DailyOrbit The market appears calm, but both bulls and bears are holding back, waiting for signals. The total market cap is around 2.8 trillion, with a fear and greed index of 56. I hope this is a consolidation rather than a trend reversal. The concern is that the existing market competition is too fragile—ETF funds are generally weak, with BTC net outflows of about 679 million last week, and ETH has been bleeding for 9 consecutive days with over 630 million outflows this month. The Fed's September minutes were hawkish, and expectations for rate hikes by year-end remain; CPI data is a critical watershed.
$BTC $: Tug of war near 83,000, with intense bull-bear competition. QCP's Q4 outlook sees BTC's baseline scenario fluctuating between 80,000-90,000, with 80,000-82,000 as a buying zone. If ETF inflows continue and the Fed pauses rate hikes, a breakthrough above 100,000 is possible. Negative news: The US government transferred 17,733 BTC, raising concerns about selling pressure. But the 80,400 low held, and buying is still absorbing. No chasing the mid-price; wait for CPI to land before making moves.
Hot coins: $SOL broke below all short-term moving averages; the cup-and-handle pattern awaits confirmation; BNB is around 748, with wedge warnings unresolved; XRP fell from 1.52 to 1.40, with questionable rebound strength. The altcoin index dropped 1.1% this week, and the risk of chasing low-quality tokens is rising.
Focus on three key things: CPI data, whether BTC can hold above 83,000, and whether ETH ETF outflows narrow. Patience is more valuable than predictions. This does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk. NEAR at $5.7, do you still dare to chase?
Up 150% in 30 days, from 2.3 to 5.7, ETF attracted $58 million in three days, Intents monthly volume at $4.8 billion — but with perpetual funding rates turning positive and large holders crowded on longs, is jumping in now a feast or a trap?
Let's look at the surface first: NEAR has become the strongest alt in this round.
BTC is oscillating between 83k-86k, ETH hovering around 2550, while NEAR has independently surged from 2.3 in mid-September to 5.7, nearly a 150% increase in 30 days. Market cap is $7.65 billion, ranked top 20, fully unlocked with no unlocking selling pressure. Moving averages are bullish, RSI between 60-67, strong but not extremely overbought. All technical indicators are signaling: the uptrend is intact, don’t get off lightly.
But brother, after a 150% rise, every "it can still go up" you hear should be questioned with a why.
First: The ETF is here, the institutional channel is truly open.
Bitwise spot NEAR ETF (NRR) launched on NYSE Arca on September 29, with a net inflow of $35.5 million on day one, totaling $58 million in the first three days, and AUM quickly surpassing $50 million. This is NEAR’s first US spot ETF.
Sounds small? Compare: ETH ETF was at this scale at launch, then rolled into billions. Institutions don’t buy crypto for a day, but for a year.
Retail asks "Is NEAR going to correct?" Institutions are quietly accumulating.
Second: Intents is not just a concept, it’s real usage with real money.
NEAR Intents cross-chain intent transaction layer had $4.8 billion volume in September, a 73% month-on-month surge, setting a record, with cumulative volume exceeding $34 billion. Fee income has risen sharply, the fee switch (launching February 2026) continuously uses protocol revenue to buy back NEAR, with September buybacks significantly increasing.
In plain terms:
Users trade across 30+ chains, NEAR collects fees
Fees are used to buy and burn/buy back NEAR on the market
This is a "usage → token demand" closed loop, not just hype
Most L1s only have TVL and stories, NEAR has real revenue and buybacks. This is the confidence behind its ability to run independently from BTC.
Third: Technically strong, but high-level risks are on the table.
Up 150% in 30 days, huge profit-taking pressure. $5.98-$6.00 is a psychological barrier and recent high. Breaking through targets $6.4-$6.7; failing means a double top.
Support at $5.5-$5.7, then $5.2-$5.3 below. If daily closes below $5.5 with volume, a retest of $4.8-$5.0 is possible.
Perpetual funding rate turned positive (longs pay shorts, annualized 5-10%), indicating crowded longs. Large holders’ longs cluster on Hyperliquid, shorts have been liquidated in chains. After the squeeze ends, a quick pullback often follows.
Long vs short, judge for yourself:
Long side:
Spot ETF just launched, inflows just starting
Intents monthly volume $4.8 billion, real revenue buying back NEAR
Fully unlocked, no future selling pressure
Technical bullish alignment, independent as long as BTC doesn’t crash
Short side:
150% rise in 30 days, profit-taking can happen anytime
Positive funding rate means cost to hold longs
CPI data (around October 14) may trigger volatility
Breaking $5.5 triggers long stop-loss cascade
Key level 5.7, just 30 cents shy of $6 psychological barrier.
Resistance above: $5.98-$6.00 → break targets $6.4-$6.7
Support below: $5.5-$5.7 → $5.2-$5.3 → extreme $4.8-$5.0
Trading strategy
Aggressive longs:
Scale in lightly at $5.5-$5.7, stop loss below $5.2 (or exit if breaks $5.3 with volume). Target $5.95-$6.1 first, then above $6 look to $6.4+. Position size no more than 10% of total funds, leverage within 3-5x. Volatile, avoid heavy positions.
Conservative approach:
Wait for break above $6 and pullback confirmation before chasing, or wait for stronger support at $5.2-$5.3 before entering. If breaks $5.2, stand aside and wait for new structure.
Shorts:
Trend too strong, not recommended to short against it. Only consider light hedging if clearly breaks $5.5 with volume and macro weakens.
Risk management rules:
Watch liquidation price on perpetuals, always keep enough margin
Monitor open interest and liquidation data, squeezes often followed by pullbacks
Events to watch: CPI, ETF inflows, Intents data updates
NEAR rose from 2.3 to 5.7.
You called it trash at 2.3, now you ask if you can chase at 5.7.
It’s not that NEAR is bad, you just keep cutting losses before it starts and get greedy after it surges.
ETF channel just opened, Intents usage is exploding, buybacks continue — the mid-term story is not over. But a short-term 150% rise needs time and consolidation to digest.
Don’t FOMO chase highs, don’t panic sell. Wait for pullbacks, wait for confirmation, only then can you survive to catch the next wave.
$BTC $ETH $NEAR Latest news, veteran traders help you sort out the key information from this past hour. Market and on-chain anomalies The giant whale address 0x706d…1d6f on Hyperliquid holding 94 $BTC short positions is barely holding on, with 40x full margin leverage, an average price around 83,517 USD, and unrealized losses already showing, totaling about 7.88 million USD. Veteran trader comment: 40x full margin leverage means one wrong move and the market will carry you away; don’t just look at how big other whales are, leverage makes everyone equal. On the other side, address 0xec4a…cf62 started from zero, simultaneously opening long positions on $BTC, $ETH, and $NEAR, with a nominal amount of about 28.8 million USD, currently showing some unrealized gains. Veteran trader comment: Some are short, some are long; the market is that divided. Think carefully if you can handle the volatility before copying trades. Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 19 consecutive days, currently at -0.12%. Veteran trader comment: The buying side in the US is indeed weak; a prolonged negative premium is not a positive signal. Crypto security and regulation ZachXBT criticized the XRPL Foundation, saying the treasury has tens of billions of dollars but only gave a $250,000 bounty to the white hat who discovered the "infinite $XRP supply vulnerability," which effectively encourages attackers to go bigger next time. Veteran trader comment: Stingy bounties mean security debts will have to be paid sooner or later. French lawmakers support a proposal requiring self-custodied crypto assets over 100,000 euros to be declared, with penalties for violations. Veteran trader comment: EuRecording $SAND short position. Entered at 0.0652, at that time the market was "trying to pump but kept getting smashed," existing selling pressure remained, volume-price divergence exposed weakness. Entered 50x short position, mark price 0.06381, floating profit 106.59%, currently holding.
$BTC $ETH
For this type of retreating asset, the core signals are high-level stagnation and capital withdrawal. Ride the short momentum, avoid reacting only after a volume explosion. 50x leverage tests timing even more, do not be greedy with positions, discipline comes first. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 [In-depth Analysis of ZEC Contracts｜
The price successfully broke through the key sell wall at $1253 (previously a strong resistance overlapping with the average entry of short whales) and swept the liquidation cluster near $1340. The number of short whales dropped from 212 to 124, and the position size shrank from 135.7 million to 76.9 million. The current average cost is already below the current price, with an unrealized loss of about $4.7 million—a typical characteristic.
#DailyOrbit Before $6, I won't raise the target yet
The strong performance of $NEAR in this round is recognizable.
The afternoon update is around 5.92, up about 10.8% in 24 hours, and about 16.4% in the past week, which is no longer just a single-day rebound.
But $6 is primarily just a whole number level, and we can't assume there's significant resistance just based on this number.
I will observe when it approaches that level whether the upward movement becomes noticeably difficult, and whether it can continue to attempt after a pullback.
Breaking through is definitely worth attention, and holding above it carries more weight.
Currently, I view it as relatively strong, but I won't prematurely include the next upward phase just because it's near a whole number.
$ETH has rebounded, but the strength can't be rated too highly for now.
The midday quote is about 2545, only about 1% higher than around 2528 last night.
This indicates price improvement, but no clear breakout yet.
I want to see if it can continue to push forward consecutively, rather than rebound once and then stay stagnant for a long time. For now, treat it as a recovery and adjust judgment based on actual performance.
$ARB needs attention for the pullback after the rise.
The midday update is around 0.196, up about 1.8% in 24 hours, but down about 2.6% in the past week.
There is short-term reaction, but no strength shift within the week yet.
We can't assume it will catch up with the same magnitude just because similar coins have risen a lot. It needs to recover its own losses first before discussing whether it can follow stronger trends."Is the pullback intentional? Don't rush to buy this time"
$BTC and $ETH may need to test lower again in the next three days. Only breaking the previous low counts; if not, it will remain in consolidation.
What is this move testing? The patience of holders. Last time it pulled back and then rallied; this time the position is lower, washing out more thoroughly.
Where to test: ETH around 2375, BTC between 78800–79800. This is based on structural analysis, not a wild guess. ZEC has retraced about 30% from its high, the drop is smooth, it may not reach the lowest point, possibly just a light touch.
Reminder: Stop-loss orders placed in that area have already been triggered. Don't place stop-losses right in the middle of support; they easily become fuel.
In terms of operation, don't rush to buy. If it breaks the previous low but quickly recovers, it's a shakeout; if it doesn't recover, expect lower prices. If it doesn't break the previous low, it will continue to consolidate. Control your hands and wait for confirmation.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
This is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me. Yesterday afternoon, when $CASHCAT dipped back, I was watching the order book for stronger buying and quietly entering funds, and I suggested going long around 0.1115. Unexpectedly, right after I posted, the price pushed all the way to 0.1226, with an unrealized profit of +197.3%. Feeling good, brothers.
Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
I took 70% of the position off the table first, raised the stop to cost price for the remaining 30%, let the profits run if it keeps going, and if it pulls back, don't give back the gains. Nailed the rhythm this round, got it.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak, wait for the next move. Wait for a new structure to form, the market isn't short of opportunities, it's patience that's lacking.
$SOL $ETH ETH can rise while ETF flows stay negative. That’s not impossible — it just means the price move needs context.
ETF data showed nine straight sessions of outflows through Friday. The next question is whether spot demand can absorb that pressure, not whether one green candle looks bullish.
For ETH, what would convince you the recovery is real: sustained inflows or stronger price action?$STRK This short position has currently gained about 4 times profit, entered around 0.11054, with the price steadily pushed down to around 0.1017. The previous pullback after the spike was basically fully captured.
This decline is not a normal small retracement; the 15-minute chart has continuously stayed below MA5, MA10, and MA20, and the short-term rebound was immediately suppressed. The selling pressure is quite continuous. MACD is still below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum has not completely disappeared, but KDJ has reached around 20, suggesting the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short here is starting to decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the price quickly dropped from the high of 0.1268, and around 0.10 it has entered a previously dense trading area. This position is more suitable for taking most of the profits back first, leaving a small base position to watch around 0.097. If the price suddenly recovers to 0.104–0.105, a quick short-term rebound should be guarded against. $BTC $FIL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 PUMP has a supply test today: roughly 6.88B tokens are scheduled to unlock, with estimates around $40M+.
That doesn’t mean $40M will hit the market immediately. The real signal is how price and volume react as the new supply becomes available.
If buyers absorb it, that says something. If price weakens on rising volume, that says something else. $PUMPHello brothers and sisters, I am a PhD.
Today BTC surged past 84000, nearly 60,000 people across the network were liquidated. Wow, liquidations even on a rise?
I think the main liquidations this time were shorts.
Previously, it dropped near 80300, with a bunch of short orders stacked above, and today’s rally swept them all out.
Shorts' stop losses are fuel for the bulls.
If Wednesday’s CPI is positive, these short positions will continue to be liquidated, and BTC might directly surge to 87000.
But if CPI is negative, the bulls’ stop losses will be just as brutal. Now it’s a showdown between bulls and bears.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ $BTC $ETH $MAGIC $NEAR 15m timeframe is starting to show distribution signals and weakening short-term bullish momentum.
➔ Waiting for a potential liquidity sweep above the $6.00 psychological level to secure a higher-probability counter-trend entry.
– Entry Zone: $6.10 – $6.20
– Stop Loss: $6.40
– Targets: $5.68 | $5.43
⚠️ If price drops directly without sweeping $6.10+, cancel the setup.Chart Information ETH/USDT Perpetual 1-Hour K-Line Current ETH Price: 2551.66 1. Key Levels Recent Low: 2405.03 (the bottom of this drop) Short-term Support: 2490-2500 range, a dense trading area during previous rebound consolidation Short-term Resistance: 2570-2580, the current K-line is testing this resistance zone Strong Resistance Above: 2739.43, the starting point of the previous major drop 2. Volume and Structure From the low of 2405, a corrective rebound wave emerged; volume increased during the downtrend, and trading volume moderately expanded during the rebound phase, indicating a rebound repair after a major drop rather than a strong bullish trend. Current ETH price is 2551, close to short-term resistance around 2570~2580. The K-line shows signs of small bearish and bullish candles with stagnation. ETH and BTC price movements are highly correlated and can be analyzed together with BTC's market. BTC (Correlation Analysis) Bull-Bear Strategy BTC is currently in a range-bound consolidation (82563 ~ 84500), ETH is rebounding under pressure synchronously, both showing consistent rhythm. 🟢 Short-term Long (Dip Buy Strategy) Entry Conditions: ETH pulls back to 2490~2500 support, 1-hour K-line closes a stop-fall candle without effective breakdown, selling pressure diminishes; simultaneously BTC pulls back to 82563 support and stabilizes. Target: ETH aims for 2570~2580; BTC aims for 84400-84500 Stop Loss: ETH $ETH bounced back to 2,555, but don’t rush to call a reversal
Current quote is 2,555, up 0.82% in 24 hours, looking decent. But on the 4-hour chart, EMA20 is pressing at 2,530, and the upper Bollinger Band is stuck around 2,559, so this rebound is actually struggling. Looking down, there’s 635 million worth of long liquidations piled near 2,412; looking up, if volume breaks through 2,655, shorts with 502 million will also be swept. In short, it’s like a sandwich cookie now, with liquidation waiting both above and below.
On-chain is not looking good. The Ethereum Foundation’s linked wallet just transferred 4,393 ETH to Kraken, worth 11.13 million USD; this wallet’s average cost from ten years ago was only 658. F2Pool hasn’t been idle either, depositing 2,160 ETH to Binance. Plus, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 542 million last week, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone pulling out 477 million. To translate: chips are moving out, no new inflows.
October 14 US CPI is the biggest risk this week. If it exceeds expectations, all rebounds could turn into a panic sell-off. My approach is simple—don’t guess the direction, wait for ETH to firmly hold above 2,600 before acting; if it can’t hold, treat it as following the rise, not leading it. The risk-reward for going long here is average; wait for CPI to land before making moves. $ZEC is very strong, truly a powerhouse coin. Now it is targeting the resistance level at 1350; once it holds above this, it will turn into a support level. Therefore, for such strong powerhouse coins, it is best to keep as much distance as possible.🤐
Current price is 1,309.33, up 6.79% in 24 hours, with 8 consecutive bullish candles on the 4H chart, and in the last 20 K-lines, 15 are bullish and 5 bearish, indicating strong short-term momentum.
MA5 (1,282) > MA10 (1,254) > MA20 (1,238), current price stands about 6.68% above MA20 and about 2.68% above MA60, confirming a bullish alignment. MA60 (1,286) has shifted from resistance to short-term support.
The average volume of the last 6 bars is only 1.19 times that of the previous 30 bars. Although the price is rising with consecutive bullish candles, volume remains flat, indicating a lack of incremental support for the upward move. Caution is advised when chasing higher prices.
RSI at 65.8 is strong but not overbought, still room to grow but approaching a sensitive zone. Resistance levels above are 1,347.83, 1,365.67, and 1,384.39; support levels below are 1,305.25, 1,289.34, and 1,278.00. Pay close attention to the battle at 1,347.83: a breakout with increased volume will open up further upside, while a volume contraction and stalled rise may lead to a pullback to 1,305 for confirmation. A $141M crypto lawsuit raises a question retail traders rarely ask: can a token lock-up really protect holders?
DWF-linked firms allege a custodian sold $FF and ESPORTS tokens before agreed restrictions expired. The claims are unproven, but the risk is real: in thin markets, early supply can hurt everyone still holding.
Would you trust a project’s lock-up without on-chain proof?Term Structure Radar
$SOL mark spread is positive, but the best bid for buy near sell far is inverted. Mark near-far spread +0.04%, best bid for buy near sell far spread -0.97%.$SNDK mark price at 1559.7, 75x short position floating profit at 266%, short position profits continue to increase at the upper edge of 1616.9, bearish suppression logic continues to play out.
Structurally, the price has continuously dropped from 1616.9 to 1559.7 (previously 1568.1), with a clear downtrend and no significant deep rebound, bearish momentum remains strong. However, the decline is expanding, making chasing shorts at low levels very low in cost-effectiveness.
With 265% floating profit in hand, the primary focus is to lock in profits. If the 1550-1560 area experiences a dip with stagnation or volume contraction, priority should be given to significantly reducing positions; if volume breaks below 1550, the base position can be extended. Leaving some positions when retesting 1600-1620 resistance is possible; exit if the rebound stabilizes above 1640 but fails to hold. The 1616.9 long-short dividing line remains bearish if not broken, and the principle is not to chase lows. Personal trading record, contract risk at your own discretion. $BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 The real reason behind $MRNA Moderna's continuous surge is here: Moderna is not a "COVID vaccine company," but an mRNA platform immunology company.
Phase III positive results = platform validation rather than single product validation: the market is buying the option that "after success in melanoma, lung cancer, bladder cancer, kidney cancer, and other solid tumors can be replicated"; as long as subsequent HR, OS, and safety do not fail, the valuation floor of the entire mRNA/new antigen track will be revised upward.
Today is just the 0-1 stage; after FDA approval in 2027, it will be the real explosive stage from 1 to over 100!$RSR's recent pump has that familiar Korean flavor
Just opened the market, and RSR's big bullish candle immediately energized me. Upbit launched KRW and USDT trading pairs at 2:05 PM, and within 15 minutes, it surged 66%, reaching a high of 0.00282, now pulling back to hover around 0.0023.
Everyone knows the explosive power of coins listed on Korean exchanges. But the key isn't the price increase, it's the funding rate — hitting an extreme of -2%, meaning shorts are paying to hold positions, a classic short squeeze setup. As long as the price doesn't quickly crash back down, short covering will fuel further upward momentum.
That said, the RSI is already at 82, seriously overbought, and the fear and greed index at 69 is in the greed zone. Chasing highs at this point is like licking a knife's edge. Around the current price of 0.0023, buying on a pullback to the upper middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.00230-0.00238 is relatively comfortable, with take profit first targeting the previous high extension at 0.00262, and stop loss set below MA5 at 0.00209.
News-driven moves come fast and go fast. Don't be greedy; take profits when you can. Personal review, not investment advice. [Old Leek Observation] $PYTH
This time, what’s worth watching about PYTH is not just the oracle track, but that its revenue is starting to establish a more direct link with token demand.
On October 8, Pyth officially announced that all revenue obtained by the DAO from the product will be used for the PYTH reserve fund. The official disclosure showed that by the end of September, ARR reached about $11.49 million, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of about 86.5%.
After the news came out, PYTH briefly rose from about $0.0738 to around $0.0812, and trading volume also significantly increased. But then the price retreated, indicating the market is still digesting this news.
My approach is not to chase the first wave, but to watch for support after the pullback. If the price stabilizes again at $0.078 and breaks through $0.0815 with volume, then there is more reason to observe the next upward move.
Entry: $0.0795–$0.0830 (consider after pullback stabilizes)
Take profit: $0.0870 / $0.0900 / $0.0940 / $0.0980 / $0.12
Stop loss: $0.0765
The buyback mechanism is a plus, but we still need to see actual execution and whether revenue can continue to grow.My Levels:
Level 1: $5.408
Level 2: $5.533
Level 3: $5.667
$NEAR bounced from $4.305 and keeps printing higher lows. Price sits near $5.32, just under the $5.53 to $5.67 resistance zone. Support-1 near $5.25 is the first defense, and $4.998 invalidates the idea. Reason to act now: buyers are defending dips while RSI cools, so a push through $5.408 opens $5.533 and $5.667. Wait for confirmation, not hype.$DOGE DOGE is currently in a correction phase following the early October peak, showing short-term weakness and has yet to confirm a return to an upward structure.
The price has fallen from the $0.095–0.096 range to around $0.087, breaking below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The $0.088–0.092 range serves as short-term resistance; below, $0.084–0.085 is a key support level. If this support fails, the price may further decline toward the $0.078 area.
In the medium term, although a golden cross appeared on the daily chart, the Bitwise DOGE ETF will cease trading on October 14. Net outflows from spot funds, deleveraging in derivatives, and the unlimited supply structure collectively suppress rebound momentum.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as a range-bound consolidation, awaiting directional choice. Key focus is on whether the $0.084 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $0.088–0.092 resistance zone. 10.12 $BTC/ $ETH Market Outlook:
This week, focus on Bitcoin at the 84000 level. Only if the daily candle closes above this level will this correction be considered over, then we can look further up towards around 87000. If Bitcoin can't hold above 84000 on the daily chart, be cautious of a retest near the previous low around 80500. If it doesn't break below, a rebound is expected; if it breaks, a new downtrend will begin. On the downside, consider entering around 75000-76000 as a dip buy!
There is data coming Wednesday night. Before the data release on Wednesday night, volatility should remain low. Major moves are expected after 8:30 PM Wednesday. No need to guess direction these two days; just focus on Bitcoin's 84 and the lower 82 levels. A break above 84 will strengthen bulls and push the market higher; a break below 82 will strengthen bears and test previous lows. Instead of guessing the market, keep a close eye on your positions!
Today, watch the 84000 level closely. Only a strong breakout will push the market higher. Resistance is expected near 85500-86900.
If it can't break higher, watch for a pullback to 82300-80500.
For Ethereum, watch support at 2515-2475 and resistance near 2580-2620-2660.
#BTC Market Analysis📊 #ETH Market Analysis📊Didn't get liquidated, withdrew 6000, after a few days came back and lost my mind$XRP XRP is currently in a pullback and correction phase following the Q3 rebound, showing short-term weakness and has not yet confirmed a return to an upward structure.
The price has fallen from the September high range of $1.60–$1.65 to around $1.41, breaking below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The $1.42–$1.53 range is a key resistance zone; on the downside, $1.38 is a critical support level, and if broken, the price may further test the $1.30–$1.26 area.
In the medium term, XRP remains above the 200-day moving average, with ETF cumulative net inflows of about $1.81 billion providing some support; however, RSI below 50, bearish MACD, and weakening OBV indicate insufficient momentum, and the Evernorth Nasdaq listing effect still requires spot buying to be validated.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as a range-bound consolidation, waiting for a directional choice. Key focus is on whether the $1.38 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $1.50–$1.53 resistance zone. $ZEC ZEC is currently in a deep correction phase following a rally in late September, with a short-term bearish bias and no confirmed trend reversal yet.
The price has fallen from a high of about $1,677 to oscillate between $1,200 and $1,320, breaking below the psychological $1,200 level. The key support is at $1,136; if this breaks, it may further decline to the $900–$1,000 range. On the upside, the $1,369–$1,411 zone is a short-term resistance band, and only a rebound above this range could restore bullish momentum.
In the medium term, ZEC has gained over 1,000% this year, but the Grayscale ZCSH ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week in October, indicating a clear weakening of institutional funds. Leveraged long positions are being liquidated, large on-chain withdrawals and ETF selling pressure coexist, and thin liquidity amplifies volatility.
Currently, it is better to view this as a high-volatility correction awaiting directional choice, with key focus on whether the $1,136 support can hold and whether volume can push back above the $1,369 resistance area.In investing, the most important question is not how much I want to earn, but what price I might have to pay for it? How big is the risk? "Risk control" and "position sizing" should be the first lessons investors learn. I once had a naive thought: You borrow money from the bank (deposits), the interest is low; the bank lends you money (loans), the interest is high, 2-3 times more. It's unfair! Borrowing money is a loss for you but a gain for the bank. Since the interest is so low, and stocks can rise 10% in a day, if you invest the money deposited in the bank into stocks, wouldn't you double your earnings? That's how I started investing. What followed was like this: "But I never thought stocks would drop 10%." It actually happened—down down down, buy buy buy, lose lose lose. I've been stuck in this pit for many years. Where did it go wrong? This lesson is really hard to learn. The seemingly simple knowledge of buying and selling is actually very difficult, and the tuition is very expensive. Countless times going against the trend, countless times the same lesson, countless times failing to learn. It's a very simple matter; just reverse the habit and there will be improvement, but I haven't learned it in years. This is where human nature is trained, where you learn to be a person. After all these years, the goal has become: not how much to earn or profit, but how much to lose? How to reduce losses to 1/10? After principal loss, the required gain to break even is: 10% 11.1% 20% 25% 30% 42.9% 50% 100% 70% 233% 90% 900% The key here is$FIL market is stagnant, but this thing is crazily pumping, and the posts are getting lively. Aren't you guys afraid? Is the confidence in the halving really that strong? $BTC BTC is currently in a consolidation and recovery phase after the pullback from the October rally, showing short-term weakness and has not yet confirmed a return to an upward attack structure.
The price quickly fell from the early October high of about $87,000 and has recently been oscillating in the $82,000–$84,000 range, with $83,000–$84,000 as a key resistance zone; below, $80,000–$80,400 is an important support level, and if broken, it may further test the $77,000–$77,550 area.
In the medium term, BTC is still trading above the 200-day moving average, and the long-term bullish structure remains intact; however, ETF fund outflows, concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs, high U.S. Treasury yields, and rising oil prices suppress risk appetite, causing a noticeable slowdown in institutional demand.
Currently, it is more appropriate to view this as range-bound consolidation, waiting for a directional choice, with a focus on whether the $80,000 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $83,000–$84,000 resistance zone. Trump is once again using wordplay to steer the narrative, blowing the stalled negotiations into an "immediate ceasefire,"
the market is trading ahead of time, be cautious of short-term swings.
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
On the 11th, Trump posted that the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire takes effect immediately and both sides have agreed.
But Zelensky said this is news, the Ukrainian side only stated "If Russia stops, we stop," and the Russian side has not confirmed yet.
Moreover, after his announcement, Russian forces still attacked Ukrainian power plants, which was a harsh slap in the face.
Clearly, Trump wants to use this diesel volume increase and temporary sanction relaxation negotiated with Russia, while pressuring Ukraine to stop attacking refineries, treating oil prices as a domestic political tool.
Brent $BZ fell back to around 103 because of his statement,
this is an emotion-driven short-term pullback, not a fundamental reversal.
Diesel futures fell even more sharply, indicating the market has traded the potential volume increase ahead of time.
But we must understand that what can truly sustain price pressure is a substantive ceasefire and supply restoration, not a single post.
Russia-Ukraine mutual trust is low and history repeats; Middle East risks remain unresolved—Houthis continue to attack Saudi airports and facilities, Hormuz oil tankers were attacked again over the weekend, and Iran has tightened control.
Now that the ceasefire has fallen through and the Middle East escalates again, the rebound will be quick.
Oil prices remain bullish, any dip is an opportunity.
If Brent falls below 100, go long directly, with targets at 105-110.
$BTC $ETH can be shorted at resistance levels above to catch a round of short-term correction.$OKB OKB is currently in a correction phase following the peak surge in early October, showing short-term weakness and has yet to confirm a return to an upward structure.
The price quickly fell from the high of approximately $143.9 on October 6, recently oscillating between $123 and $126. It has broken below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the $127–$133 range acting as short-term resistance; the key support is near $123, and if broken, it may further decline to the $119–$120 area.
In the medium term, OKB remains above the 200-day moving average, with the X Layer ecosystem and deflationary mechanism providing some support; however, short-term MACD and ADX indicators are bearish, and RSI is near oversold, so the probability of a rebound remains low.
Currently, it is better viewed as range-bound, awaiting a directional choice, with a focus on whether the $123 support can hold and whether volume can increase to reclaim the $127–$133 resistance zone. Besides ETFs, a group of publicly listed companies have included SOL in their balance sheets.
A total of 23 companies and governments hold 19.6 million $SOL, worth $2.19 billion, accounting for 3.08% of the total supply. Including various funds, 48 holders collectively own 47.2 million tokens, representing 8.01% of the circulating supply.
The largest holder among companies is the US-listed FWDI with 8.5 million tokens, still buying as of October 1. Next are another US-listed DFDV with 2.56 million tokens, UPXI with 2.34 million, and HSDT with 2.06 million. The top five holders account for 65%, while the median holdings among the rest are only 85,800 tokens.
These tokens were not bought with cash on hand. FWDI’s 8.5 million tokens came from $1.65 billion in equity financing; DFDV has a $300 million issuance quota, issuing shares while buying tokens, using staking earnings to pay dividends.
This strategy depends on the stock price holding up. When the stock price is higher than the value of the tokens held, issuing shares to buy SOL is cost-effective, increasing token holdings and tokens per share. If the stock price falls, issuing shares is like selling at a discount, and buying stops.
From October 2 to 8, none of the 48 holders, companies or governments, reported buying or selling. The last concentrated activity was in late September, when DFDV added 47,700 tokens in one week.
To find out if these companies are still buying, check issuance announcements and holdings disclosures weekly."Weekly chart turns bullish, but the rebound has thresholds"
$BTC and $ETH weekly charts have just crossed above the zero line, indicating a bullish bias. But bulls, don’t rush; this rebound comes with conditions.
Two gates stand in the way: BTC 84500–85100, ETH 2580–2620. Without a breakout on volume, there will still be a phase of pullback. If it can’t break through, don’t mistake a correction for a reversal.
For the daily chart to form a non-divergent structure, it must break the previous high with sustained volume; otherwise, volume and price are mismatched, and any upward move is just false strength. The core logic remains unchanged: as long as key resistance isn’t broken, bears still dominate, and beware of the weekly chart converging and turning bearish.
In terms of trading: first, go long on the rebound, then reduce positions or take profits at resistance zones; if confirmed that it can’t break through, switch to short. Don’t guess a one-sided move, follow the signals.
Summary: first long, then short. Resistance levels set the rhythm, volume determines authenticity.
This is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $BTC
Happy now 84188 short
Currently 83500
Captured 688 points
Can reduce position with the just-made new high stop loss
Waiting for the next take profit levelA newly launched contract platform dares to offer 1000x leverage, but its prices are directly copied from other exchanges. On the first day of launch, some people went back and forth pushing prices on other platforms, while this one just sat there collecting money. The platform said that most of it was eventually lost back, but someone checked the accounts and found they were still holding over one million dollars net.Here's something: This Wednesday, the Dogecoin ETF in the US will stop trading.
The fund company will convert the DOGE inside into cash and return it to the holders through the original channel, no action needed from them. From listing to liquidation, it lasted less than eleven months, managing assets of less than $700,000 — no big whale accounts.$W W Is this surge just a bull trap!?
Although the protocol has narratives like BlackRock, the token lacks utility, and the monthly unlock pressure is huge. The main force is using good news to pump and dump. After volume expansion on the 15-minute chart, MACD shows divergence; buying can't keep up, leading to an immediate waterfall drop.
Don't be fooled by the gains. Lightly short near the current price of 0.03, add to the position on a rebound to 0.032, stop loss at 0.034, target break at 0.027 aiming for 0.025.
This round is a battle with the main force dumping, act fast, precise, and ruthless! 🔥 $ZRO vs $RSR : Two pumps, but which one has more fuel left?
$ZRO is up 20.8%. Longs hold $27.65M with +$7M profit, but fresh selling is 1.7x buying.
$RSR has surged 47.1%, yet buyers still dominate: $655K buying vs $481K selling. Funding is deeply negative at -1.92%.
👀 My pick: $RSR for short-term momentum.
Despite the massive rally, buying pressure remains stronger. But after a 47% pump, chasing the price is risky.$ETH Ethereum has finally bounced back
Almost thought it was gone, today's surge was too strong, reaching as high as around 2578
I think it still needs to drop, the chance of going above 2600 is very low
I plan to wait for a pullback near 2510 before buying Ethereum again
Judging by the current rebound strength, a V-shaped bottom rebound for Ethereum is more likely
$BTC Bitcoin is showing some signs of a small bull today
It directly broke through the 84000 level, technically there should be a lot of long positions trapped at this point
If it drops again, I will add some long positions
The pullback shouldn't be very deep
I think buying long positions around 83000-82500 is a good idea
This level is still very good $S This long position has currently gained a floating profit of 4.58 times, bought around 0.0487 and now at about 0.0598, with a peak once reaching 0.06932. The previous acceleration phase was basically fully captured.
The most obvious change in this round is that after a volume surge and rise, it started to consolidate sideways. On the 4-hour level, it is still above MA10 and MA20, and MACD hasn't completely deteriorated, indicating the major trend can still hold for now. But on the 1-hour chart, it has started to cool down; the price has fallen below the short-term moving averages, MACD weakened, and KDJ returned to the mid-level, showing that the momentum to chase gains is clearly not as strong as before.
Now it is actually suitable to slow down the pace, take some profits off the table, and keep the base position. As long as it holds near 0.059, there is still a chance to retest 0.062–0.0645 later. If it really breaks below 0.058, be prepared for a deeper pullback. $STRK $FIL #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 1. 盘面时间：2026-10-09 21:00 起的 1 小时周期图，当前价格 83818.01 2. 关键价位 近期低点：80393.56 第一支撑：82563（图中白色水平线，前期成交密集支撑） 上方压力：86999.11 历史高点；短期就近压力就在 84500 附近 3. 量能： 前期下跌放量，见底 80393 之后反弹阶段成交量温和，最近这根 K 线成交量小幅放大，价格反弹到 83818，处于震荡修复区间。 4. 形态结构： 从 80393 低点走出一波反弹，属于大跌后的反弹震荡行情，不是强势单边多头。 价格目前卡在 82563~84500 这个箱体内部。 多空判断（1 小时周期） ✅短线做多思路（只适合箱体内部低吸） 条件：回踩 82563 支撑位，并且 K 线收出止跌信号、不有效跌破，同时成交量萎缩（抛压变小），可以试多。 目标：第一目标 84400~84500； 防守止损：有效跌破 82500 下方离场。 ✅短线做空思路（压力位承压再考虑） 条件：价格反弹到 84400-84500 压力区，出现滞涨、K 线收长上影，成交量跟不上涨势，试空。 目标：回落看 82563 支I think the Hong Kong stock market has gained another legitimate channel to buy SOL, so don't expect the spot price to surge immediately. The Pando Solana ETF (2831) opens tomorrow, and OKX spot SOL is about 111.82 USDT (Beijing 16:21).