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$AVGO #GoldmanSachs Raises Broadcom Target Price Signaling Compute Power Orders?
Everyone is buzzing about the surge in ASIC custom chips, but the long-term pressure of high valuations hasn't disappeared.😅
Strong earnings + forward AI revenue guidance have pushed the market higher, driven by Google's TPU and multiple clients expanding production.
On September 3, Goldman Sachs raised Broadcom's target price to $540, maintaining a buy rating, optimistic about AI semiconductor revenue continuing to multiply. Besides Google's stable orders, they expect Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta to gradually contribute incremental growth, diversifying the client base.
Once the news broke, short-term funds chased the custom compute logic, and $AVGO surged, challenging new highs.
However, AI capital expenditure rhythms are highly variable, and client order fulfillment cycles are long. The short-term gains have already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations.
This round of upgrades is based on management's high guidance projections. If cloud providers cut budgets, valuations could quickly fall back, and there is still a long cycle before earnings are fully realized. There is something in the market that is harder to restore than a price drop.
That is trust.
If the price drops 50%, as long as the funds return, maybe a few big bullish candles can pull it back.
But once a project, a chain, or a platform truly hurts its users, even if the problem is later resolved, the money compensated, and announcements made, many people's first reaction is still not to come back, but:
"Let me see first."
Because people are not candlesticks.
Candlesticks can have a V-shaped reversal, but the human heart is very difficult.
Those who have experienced not being able to withdraw coins will think of liquidity first next time;
Those who have experienced project teams dumping will doubt the chips when they see good news next time;
Those who have experienced hacker attacks will instinctively ask even if the platform says it has been fixed:
"Will there be a second time?"
This is why many times, fixing vulnerabilities only takes a few days, but restoring trust may take months or even years.
Money can be compensated.
Systems can be upgraded.
Security teams can be replaced.
But once the string in the user's heart is tightened, it is hard to loosen immediately because of an announcement.
So I increasingly feel that a platform's truly valuable asset is never just the number of users, trading volume, or TVL.
It is that users are willing to put their money here and still sleep peacefully at night.
Security has no direct profit, but it is the premise of all profits.
The same goes for ourselves.
After being educated by the market so many times, there is no need to never trust anyone forever because of one accident, but there is also no need to immediately return all trust just because of a statement saying "it has been resolved."$BTC is currently in the most uncomfortable position, stuck in limbo.
After surging past $84,000+, bulls and bears continue to tug back and forth, with resistance above $85,000 and important short-term support at $83,000.
What truly matters is not a single candlestick, but whether volume follows through after a breakout.
Holding above $85,000 indicates strength continuation; falling below $83,000 means a contraction in momentum.
Opportunities won’t disappear just because you confirm a few minutes late; rather, rushing in without confirmation is the easiest way to get shaken out.NEW: 🟠 #Bitcoin's June low never closed below the Realized Price ($77K True Market Mean), unlike 2018-19 and 2022-23 bear markets where price stayed below it for months.
If current levels hold, this marks the shallowest bear-market low since 2017, per Glassnode data. 📈🚨 DON’T ASK “UP OR DOWN?” TOO EARLY.
Ask a better question:
**WHAT WOULD PROVE YOU WRONG?**
If you’re bullish, what level or reaction would change your mind?
If you’re bearish, what would invalidate your thesis?
That’s how I’m reading this market.
Less prediction.
More confirmation. 🧠
👇 What would change YOUR view?9.25
The bull market often experiences sharp drops, but catching up to profit isn't that simple?
However, this round of decline tested 83000 but didn't break it completely, quickly recovering above 83k. This support has never been broken. BTC is oscillating between 83k and 85k. I closed this short position first; 83600 exited first. #FedHikesBTCResilience #DailyOrbit 🔥 What I really worry about is not the drop, but the "false strength"
There are currently three contradictions coexisting:
Price: BTC has fallen back from around 87K and is now hovering around 84K.
Funds: ETF inflows continue.
Sentiment: Still in the greed zone.
This indicates the market has not entered a typical panic phase.
But one detail is very important: currently, BTC's order flow toxicity is at a relatively high level over the past 90 days, and in the past 24 hours, long liquidations were about $159 million, higher than shorts at about $104 million. In other words, the market is actively clearing previous leveraged chasing.
My understanding is:
This is actually healthy.
The real danger is BTC not dropping at all, everyone crazily adding leverage, and then suddenly a waterfall drop occurs.
🟠 BTC: I will not chase 84K now
My thinking will be:
87K → first resistance
84K → current market psychological midpoint
82.9K → recent actual low
BTC yesterday hit a low of about 82,957 before returning above 84K.
So I pay more attention to:
If around 82.9K is broken again, will there be active buying?
If it tests again but quickly recovers near 84K, I would interpret that as a secondary confirmation of support.
If it breaks down directly and rebounds but cannot hold back above, then the market shifts from "consolidation digestion" to "trend correction."
The extracted text from the image:
Because a large number of options expirations will change market makers' hedging needs, short-term prices may be amplified.
🍎 My unique judgment
The most interesting thing about the market now is:
#Sentiment is still greedy, but leverage is being cleared; price is pulling back, but spot funds have not obviously withdrawn."
With these three phenomena coexisting, I tend to interpret the current phase as:
"Chip redistribution" after a bull market rise, rather than the trend having ended.
But I will not jump to conclusions.
There are only two real answers next:
🟢 BTC holds near 82.9K + ETH starts outperforming BTC + ETF continues inflows
→ The market may be gearing up for the next rally.
🔴 BTC breaks below 82.9K + ETH loses 2.56K support + ETF turns to sustained outflows + sentiment quickly falls into fear
→ Then it’s not a simple shakeout; the rebound structure needs reevaluation.
So my current strategy logic is not "guessing up or down," but waiting for the market to tell us the answer.
This is what I think is the most worth watching in the current market @梁老表 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. In this round of the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes, $BTC was not crushed. The core reason is one sentence: "The bad news was already priced in by the market, and the underlying buying power has changed."
Before the rate hike, futures had already priced in a 90% probability. When the boot drops, it means "selling the fact," and shorts covering first digest the panic.
More importantly, the structure: spot ETFs, pensions, and treasury companies—these "slow money" are taking over. They look at allocation logic, not just a single FOMC meeting; fragile leveraged positions were already cleared earlier, so they are not so sensitive to a 25bp hike.
For the mid-term, I see three points: ETF net flows, stablecoin supply, and whether the 10-year US Treasury can hold 5%. A single rate hike is not a killer move; the real threat is the triple combination of "continued hikes + strong dollar + balance sheet reduction."
Now BTC is not afraid of interest rates, but rather "dollar credit loosening + institutional base positions" are hedging the tightening.
Range-bound shaking, top-level accumulation—don’t misread resilience as a full bull market.
$ETH
$SOL $BTC $ETH — Bitcoin stalls at high levels, $80 million in long liquidations occur.
Bitcoin rose to around $87,300 on Monday but pulled back due to rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar. It is currently testing the key support at $82,800, with long position liquidations reaching approximately $80 million.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $347 million on the same day, led by BlackRock and Fidelity buying, indicating institutional money is flowing in counter to the trend.
Price is falling but funds are coming in — bullish and bearish signals are clashing.
#FedHikesBTCResilience
#CostcoBeatsMicronNext
#USTreasuryYieldsRise Why is this wave of ETH more worth watching than BTC?
ETH is the engine of the altcoin season. Historically, every major rally starts with BTC stabilizing first, then ETH outperforming, and only then does capital spread to AI, public chains, and MEME sectors. Once ETH continues to strengthen, it indicates that market risk appetite is recovering!
On-chain data has been very honest:
According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below 2,822, short position liquidation intensity will reach $691 million. The long-short battle is heating up, and shorts are being cornered!
Whales are also making moves. One address sold 1,107 BTC (about $86.76 million), then bought 34,422 ETH and staked them all. Another whale who has been accumulating ETH since July has realized a profit of $30.62 million and is still adding to their position.
ETF funds are also flowing back. The Ethereum spot ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $162 million. BlackRock’s two ETH ETFs have bought a total of $1.01 billion over nearly 20 trading days.
Key signals:
① Whether ETH can hold above 2700 with volume expansion
② Whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to strengthen
③ Whether popular coins on the planet collectively show volume expansion
If all three signals appear simultaneously, this wave may not be a simple oversold rebound but the start of a new round of capital inflow.
BTC decides whether the market has momentum; ETH decides whether altcoins have dreams. What is the market afraid of? Afraid of the cycle peaking, afraid of too much increase
But from a macro perspective, the logic of this storage cycle still holds, storage remains a key infrastructure for AI, cloud providers' capital expenditures are still heavily tilted towards storage, contract prices are still rising in Q3, and price increase contracts for Q1 next year are also locked in
SanDisk's stock price pullback is not on the emotional side
1748, let's watch#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Costco's earnings exceeded expectations, highlighting the resilience of U.S. consumer spending, which also provides fundamental support for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. The next focus is Micron (MU)'s earnings report, regarded as the "midterm exam" for the memory chip industry.
The key point is whether the demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND driven by AI servers can continue to translate into strong revenue and profit growth. Recent volatility in memory stocks indicates that market expectations are already very high. If Micron's guidance on October 1 falls short of expectations, it could easily trigger a tech stock pullback characterized by "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Overall, the AI computing power logic remains solid, but in the short term, caution is needed regarding the risk of earnings realization and industry cycle fluctuations after the report is released.Capital Flow: ETF "Six Consecutive Inflows" but Marginal Slowdown, Liquidation Structure Imbalance
ETF — Net inflows for 6 consecutive days totaling $2.84 billion, but single-day inflow sharply drops by 45%
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.844 billion. On September 21, the single-day inflow was $999 million (the highest this year), $715 million on the 22nd, $347 million on the 23rd, and $191 million on the 24th — a single-day inflow scale down about 45% compared to the previous day. BlackRock IBIT led with a single-day inflow of $163 million, while Fidelity FBTC saw an inflow of $12.9 million.
However, ETF inflows diverge significantly from price trends: funds continue to flow in, but BTC struggles to reclaim the recent high of $87,000. ETF demand is providing a "counterbalance" but is not yet sufficient to overcome the supply zone above.
Liquidation Structure — Downside Risks Far Exceed Upside Opportunities
Direction Trigger Level Liquidation Intensity
Downside Longs Break below 80,427 $1.674 billion
Upside Shorts Break above 88,259 $1.644 billion
Though the two seem close, considering the downside level 80,427 is about 4,000 points below the current price, while the upside 88,259 is only about 3,500 points above, and the "fuel" density for downside long liquidations is higher. In the past 24 hours, total network liquidations reached $166.2 million, with shorts accounting for 60.89%.
Funding Rate — Returning to Neutral, Long Crowding Risk Eases
BTC perpetual contract funding rate has dropped from 0.00777% two weeks ago to 0.00570%, approaching a neutral level. Binance BTC funding rate is about 0.001%, indicating that long leverage has been cleaned up and is tending toward health.
Whale Movements: Whales "first set 10 big targets" clearly indicating that if BTC falls below $79,000, they will gradually reduce longs; if it quickly surges near $100,000, they plan to short hedge. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
The Federal Reserve has published the qualified list of stablecoin reserves, and on the same day, its board members pointed out three issues.
▪️ On 9/24, two consultation drafts were released at once: reserves must be fully backed, only short-term Treasury bills and other qualified assets are recognized; banks issuing coins must apply through subsidiaries, with a 30-day notification for completeness and a decision within 120 days. The comment period is 60 days, with unanimous approval.
▪️ Board member Barr's statement said: stablecoins must be stable and redeemable at face value under various conditions — during stress periods, even highly liquid government debt may be discounted. He left the public with three questions: redemption rights, interest rate and foreign exchange risks, and anti-money laundering enforcement thresholds.
▪️ Reserve composition is not singular: SoFiUSD reports "mainly cash," USDC has about 84% in money market funds that only buy short-term government debt.
▪️ In the same week, Europe took the opposite approach: the ECB and national central banks of EU countries are pushing to abolish the MiCA rule that "reserves must hold no more than 60% in bank deposits."
The disagreement is not about whether stablecoins can enter the traditional financial system, but about the assets locked in the list — the rules say qualified, but the rule makers say they will be discounted. Two-thirds of the total market cap of 303.6 billion sits in U.S. government debt.
Should reserves be locked into sovereign bonds, or released from the banking system?The premise of profit and loss for $BTC is to treat it as a highly volatile, speculative risk asset with no cash flow backing and potential for significant drawdowns, only involving spare money that you can afford to lose completely without affecting your life. Its value mainly depends on market consensus and capital support; scarcity only affects supply and does not guarantee price increases. Book profits are unrealized gains until sold and converted to cash. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses simultaneously. If the private key or platform encounters issues, the asset may disappear entirely. Therefore, what truly determines the outcome is whether your position size allows you to sleep well, whether your principal can withstand total loss, and whether your buying and exit logic is clear.The 4500 BTC in this address were worth over 600 million at the 2025 peak. They didn't move.
Now BTC is at 84070, worth 381 million, and he actually moved them.
After four years of no activity, he emptied the entire wallet at once, transferring it to a brand new address.
Four years ago, this batch of coins was worth 187 million. 194 million now, all just sitting there, exciting, simple, right?
Not insignificant.
This intermediary wallet is connected to one of the oldest miner networks, with about 33,000 BTC in total, each wallet holding exactly 4500 BTC.
The earliest on-chain transactions can be traced back to 2010, when Bitcoin was only worth a few cents.
The coins didn't enter exchanges, weren't split or listed, just moved all at once with one click.
Why move them?
There are only two possibilities left on-chain:
A planned private key migration, or paving the way for an OTC transaction that doesn't go through exchanges.
Only he knows which one it is; Arkham data can verify.🪙 This is the first #BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.
This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.Crypto Circle News: Intense battle between bulls and bears at 84,000, market makers hedge to suppress, whales are not panicking to sell
BTC currently at 83,805, intraday dropped from a high of 85,258 down to 83,174, then a V-shaped rebound. Bulls do not want to lose control of 84,000, the bull-bear game is extremely fierce.
Why the continued pressure? It is not panic selling, but market makers hedging sales ahead of tonight's $15.6 billion options expiry. Market makers passively sell near key strike prices to maintain Delta neutrality, causing resistance to price gains.
Whale activity: On-chain data shows whales are not panicking to sell, spot ETFs still maintain net inflows, and the funding situation has not deteriorated.
Market signals: The 1-minute chart shows a clear V-shaped reversal, KDJ (K:42.6, D:52.1) is low and sluggish, bulls strongly support below 83,000, matching bears evenly. Currently, price has returned to 83,800, with MA10/20 (84,089-84,402) above acting as resistance.
Key level: 84,000 remains the core dividing line. After market makers' hedging subsides, if bulls break and hold above 84,000 with volume, a short squeeze may be triggered; otherwise, the range will remain between 83,000-84,000. Watch volume changes closely, avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling off. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Big Brother Maji's Full Position Panorama Review | A walking counter-indicator scene, a $93.41 million perpetual long position portfolio.
Total position $93.4139 million, all perpetual gold long positions, with three assets diverging to an absurd degree.
Breaking down item by item:
ETH | 25,000 coins, 25X full position long, the only profitable position, unrealized profit +1.2997 million U. Opened at 2523.95, liquidation price 2518.29 — these two prices are almost face-to-face, 25X full position, a slight price dip triggers liquidation. Even worse, the funding fee has already reached -825,800 U, the longer held, the scarier the cost.
BTC | 200 coins, 40X full position long, currently unrealized loss -126,900 U. Opened at 80923.40, liquidation at 73129.42. 40X full position is like dancing on a knife's edge, almost zero tolerance for error; a deep BTC drop will break this position first.
HYPE | 136,000 coins, 10X full position long, unrealized loss -273,400 U and still expanding. Opened at 92.65, liquidation at 79.69. Highly volatile altcoin, sharp fluctuations, when sector sentiment retreats, the pullback explosiveness is very strong.
In short: full position longs, high leverage, two already underwater, this "counter-indicator" position looks even more thrilling than the market itself.
Do not imitate $BTC $ETH 大多数人把"等确认"当成踏空焦虑的解药，其实它更像一道闸门。 问题是，你等的是价格，还是等成交量、持仓量一起点头？ 我这周最大的失误，就是在BTC还没站稳的时候先把仓位加满了。后来才反应过来，现在这个阶段真正该做的不是猜方向，而是管节奏。$BTC 依然是方向盘，ETF的资金进出还是那个最容易被忽略的变量。$ETH 要守住2.55K到2.60K这个结构，动能才不至于散掉。$SOL 对风险偏好更敏感，110这个位置得先护住。 我现在的动作是：等价格、量能、未平仓合约三个信号同向，再考虑动手。BTC如果能带量拿下82K到83K，资金才有机会往ETH和SOL那边溢出去。反过来，支撑一破，第一件事就是减仓，不是补仓。 偏多的路径很清楚，ETF持续流入加上BTC带头突破，山寨会跟着活过来。但风险也摆在那：如果量能跟不上，突破就是假动作，OI堆太高反而容易引发连环清算。波动阶段最怕的不是看错，是仓位太重导致拿不住。 所以我现在宁愿慢一点，也不愿意在确认之前把子弹打光。 以上只是个人复盘记录，不构成任何操作依据。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #风险管理 #波动阶段$BTC I'm betting that if it breaks through 84000, it will rise to 85000; if it can't break through, it will fall back to 83500. The current price is 83736.3, resistance at 84000, support at 83118, leaning bullish. I previously lost 200,000U because I gambled on direction without setting stop-losses. Now I've learned: open a small position of 5000U, never hold a position without a stop-loss. Operation plan: lightly go long if it breaks 84000, stop-loss at 83700, target 84500-85000; if it can't break 84000, lightly try short, stop-loss at 84200, target 83500. Enter only if the risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1; if not, stay out and wait. Do you think 84000 can be broken? $ #Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 #USOIL update
Bounced from support and reclaimed resistance.
Very good read of this asset.
Not sure why Trump says oil prices will come down ''soon''. So far it looks bullish.
I expect a move up, likely caused by geopolitical escalation, and then a potential deal before or around midterm elections (November 3rd).
That's when oil prices could start going down, but not just yet, or at least it doesn't seem so.$FIL 5. Capital preference determines the market ceiling
In the crypto bull market, capital prefers small-cap, simple narrative targets that are easy to pump quickly. FIL has a large market cap and a complex narrative, requiring understanding of staking, proofs, NV29, and storage deals, which ordinary speculative funds are unwilling to study deeply. Each rebound is only a short-term thematic speculation; once the speculation ends, funds quickly withdraw, leaving a long-term downtrend.
The FILG Grayscale trust premium is just overseas capital sentiment, not equivalent to business implementation. When sentiment fades, it will discount, bringing spot selling pressure.
6. The six-year long-term trend has already validated market attitude
Six years of continuous decline, countless positive upgrades (FVM, NV29, storage ecosystem), have only brought short-term rebounds and cannot reverse the long-term trend. Repeated unmet expectations have continuously eroded market confidence, and faith-based funds keep exiting.
Even if there is a short-term pulse rebound, it is just a rebound, not a reversal, making it difficult to return to the big market everyone expects. $FIL 3. 代币需求链路存在硬缺陷
就算SP需要质押FIL，流动质押GLIF体系可以借贷FIL完成质押，不一定需要在二级市场买入原生FIL。质押需求提升，并不会稳定带来二级市场买盘。
网络确实有Gas、罚没、NV29奖励销毁机制，但当前销毁体量，对比存量筹码和每日新增代币，量级太小，属于边角消耗，很难改变大盘供需。
4. 赛道竞争激烈，去中心化存储不是刚需
AI冷存储缺口是真的，但企业优先追求稳定、合规、低成本。传统存储厂商成熟稳定，去中心化存储对于绝大多数企业，只是备选方案，不是必选项。AR主打一次性永久存储，直接分流一部分档案需求。蛋糕很大，但FIL很难分到足够份额。$BTC has shown resilience after the interest rate hike was implemented, completely different from the previous crashes following rate hikes.
Essence: The market trades on expectations; the rate hike had long been priced in, the negative news has landed, and selling pressure was released in advance.
👉 Three major supports
1. Change in asset attributes, now regarded as a hedge similar to gold
2. ETF institutional long-term base funds, buying the dip to support the market
3. Large amounts of locked-up chips, fewer spot holdings on exchanges, insufficient selling pressure
⚠️ Resilience ≠ perpetual rise! Repeated inflation and continued aggressive rate hikes will still trigger pullbacks.
Strong BTC does not mean altcoins are safe; do not blindly rush into altcoins. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $FIL 1. Massive computing power, but real paid orders lag behind in the long term
The total network storage capacity looks huge, but the vast majority of it consists of verification data filled by miners in the past to mine FIL, not enterprise paid business. The simulator assumes a daily increase of 35 PiB in real paid storage with an 80% renewal rate, which is an extremely idealized assumption. In reality, enterprises have many cold storage options: tape libraries, centralized cloud archiving, AR, and the cost of customer migration is low, making it difficult to sustain large-scale migration to Filecoin. Without real paid orders, the logic of staking lock-up and token net deflation cannot be realized.
2. Historical stock chips are permanent shackles, selling pressure always exists
Years of linear unlocking have left a massive stock of chips with early VCs and large SP miners. Even if incremental deflation occurs in the future, meaning fewer new tokens daily, the stock of trapped chips will not disappear. Whenever there is a price rebound, old miners and early investors will cash out collectively, and every round of price increase will be interrupted by selling pressure, making it difficult to sustain a continuous main rise. FIL has no single dominant holder; chips are extremely dispersed, and no capital is willing to pay a huge price to free the historically trapped positions. The $FIL mechanism is beautifully designed, with a grand narrative for the sector, but the three major issues of business implementation, token sell pressure, and market competition remain unresolved. The positives stay at the theoretical level, making it difficult for FIL to truly take off; occasional pulse rebounds cannot change the long-term pattern.最脆弱的一环，往往藏在最热闹的仓位里。 你敢不敢跟一个浮盈七十八万美金的人做同样的动作？ 黄立成的地址今早又动了。他新开了一笔十倍杠杆的PUMP多单，名义规模六十万美金，同时把手里BTC和ETH的多头减了一部分，转头加了HYPE。整套组合现在是：25倍ETH多单，均价2658美元，浮盈一百零二万；40倍BTC多单，均价84064美元，浮盈两万四；10倍HYPE多单，均价93.95美元，浮亏二十七万；10倍PUMP多单，浮盈四千七。账户总浮盈回到七十八万。 我先说最刺眼的地方。HYPE那笔还在亏，而且是二十七万美金的亏。他没有砍，反而在这个位置继续加。这不是普通的补仓，这是在用ETH赚来的钱去喂一个还没证明自己的叙事。ETH确实成了整个组合的利润支柱，单币浮盈一百零二万，把HYPE的坑填平还有余。但这也意味着，整个账户的安全垫现在完全绑在ETH的价格上。 跨市场联动这条线其实很清楚。他减BTC和ETH，是降低对大盘beta的暴露；加HYPE和PUMP，是把风险偏好往山寨和meme那头推。这个动作本身就在说一件事：他认为大盘的确定性在下降，但局部的故事还有得炒。BTC和ETH的仓位是压舱石The opponent prematurely pushed the queen to b6, thinking it was a move to seize the initiative, but little did they know the entire game's trigger had already been set along the outer edge of $STORJ's Bollinger Bands.
In 24 hours, it only moved 3.08%, which in chess notation is called a "silent position"—no pieces exchanged, but the pressure on the squares has accumulated to a critical point. The short-term RSI stalled at 67.5, approaching the 64 warning line I had long ago drawn, while the long-term RSI is only 53.3, still wandering in midfield. This divergence between long and short-term RSI is a classic "false offensive": rapid players see momentum, grandmasters see rootless pawns.
More fatal is the position. The price is clinging to the upper edge of the short-term Bollinger Band at 105%, only -0.1% from the upper band—meaning it’s hitting the ceiling with no room left. The mid-term is even more exaggerated, at 108%, -0.3% from the upper band. A piece crossing the sixth rank and still pushing forward without any support behind is not an attack; it’s a suicidal lone advance.
Structurally, the StorjChapter11 tag indicates fundamentals are being eroded by liquidation pressure, while the FearAndGreedIndex tells me the morale across the board is completely opposite here. Funds are withdrawing, yet the price is pinned at the Bollinger Band edge—this is a classic bull trap where they try to lure momentum traders with a fake breakout, so they can exit handsomely at the top.
My judgment is clear: this is not a point to add positions, but a point to take profits, followed by a setup to short.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.08 (current price +3.3%)
Take Profit 1: $0.07 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: $0.07 (-3.4%)
Stop Loss: $0.08 (-13.4%)
Note this structure: entry is set 3.3% above the current price, take profits down to -6.2%, and stop loss wide at -13.4%. Why such a distant stop loss? Because in the endgame, you must leave room for your opponent to err, not be forced out by a single counterattack. True grandmasters never abandon the entire game due to one fluctuation—they let the opponent move first, lure them into their pre-set squares, then deliver checkmate in one move.
The endgame goal is clear: the $0.07 area is the first rib, below $0.07 is the true king’s wing. Now is not the time to buy, but to position pieces. #storjchapter11#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
With expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes heating up, BTC has shown resilience at the high level of $87,000, mainly due to a structural institutional transformation in the market. Nearly $1 billion in net inflows into spot ETFs in a single day and increased holdings by corporate treasuries like Strategy have made institutional funds the main pricing force. BTC is transitioning from a high-risk asset to an institutional allocation asset, reducing its sensitivity to interest rates.
However, risks remain. As commentators note, highly leveraged institutions (such as the debt risks implied by the “Micron” metaphor) could be the next trigger. The sideways trading at the high range of $84,000–$85,000 heavily depends on continuous capital inflows. If the Fed continues to hike rates and withdraw liquidity, highly leveraged companies will face debt pressure, which could easily trigger a sharp correction. Currently, it is a battle between liquidity and macro factors, and the pace of institutional inflows is key to judging the subsequent trend.Imagine You’re On Vacation For A Month. You Come Back, Open Your Portfolio, And See Your $ZEC Bag Was Bought Around $1,670–$2,200, The High POI / Rejection Area. Now Look At The Chart 👇 Support 1: $512 Support 2: $220 Support 3: $60 A Move From $1,670 → $220 Would Mean Roughly -87%. From $2,200 → $220, It’s About -90%. My Honest View: I’m Not Saying ZEC WILL Dump There. These Are Structural Downside Levels I’m Watching If The Current High-POI Zone Fails. With ZEC Currently Around $1,600, This IThe load-bearing walls of this building are cracking, yet everyone is still focused on the exterior wall paint. The architectural issue of $SSV is not in the blueprint but at the stress concentration points—up 5.09% in 24H, it looks like the structure is rising, but the Bollinger middle band has already been pulled to 116%, meaning the price is 1.1% above the upper band. This is a typical cantilever slab deflection overload; the rebar has already yielded.
I have done structural calculations for twenty years, and what I fear most is not collapse but the kind of "looks like it’s still standing" false stability. $SSV is currently in this state: the short-term RSI has climbed to 68.1, the long-term to 61.8, both entering a neutral-to-hot zone, but still some distance from the true overbought red line—this indicates the load is still increasing, and the anchorage at the base has begun to loosen.
More critically, the short-term Bollinger position—the price is in the 95% extreme zone, with a 7.2% buffer to the lower band but only 0.4% to the upper band. This is not support; it’s standing at the end of a cantilever beam. The mid-term Bollinger is worse, at 116%, with the upper band breached by 1.1%. This is a classic triple top warning—the third floor slab has already been poured above the design elevation, the formwork is still holding, but the concrete strength hasn’t caught up.
My assessment of this project is: the facade is still under construction, but the foundation settlement rate has already exceeded the warning threshold.
Looking bearish now is not a directional bet but a risk control calculation. The pressure level’s upward space has only a 0.4% physical limit, while below there is a 7.2% unloading space to the Bollinger lower band, plus a 9.3% lower band distance in the mid-term. The odds structure is severely unbalanced.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%)
The entry point is set 3.4% above the current price, waiting for a pullback confirmation—like waiting for the cantilever slab to rebound to the maximum deflection point before installing anchor bolts. The stop loss at 2.51 is 14.6% above entry, allowing enough structural deformation margin because if this level is breached, it means my stress model is wrong and must be completely revised.
Take profits are split into two levels, 1.98 and 2.00, both about 9% below. This is not greed but phased unloading—first dismantle the formwork, then the supports, and finally the beams.
The problem with $SSV has never been technical capability but the mismatch between the load-bearing system and the upper structure. The base layer validator network is good, but the economic model’s slab thickness cannot support this market cap height.
Structural acceptance failed.🏦 Russia's central bank just set a date: October 5, 2026
That's when it starts registering crypto exchanges and custodians
Most people will read that as routine paperwork. It isn't $BTC
Registration means these businesses get an official legal category — who can operate, who gets supervised, who gets shut out
And it lands while the US is still arguing over its own market structure rules
$ETH Higher rates are supposed to hurt Bitcoin. This time, buyers aren't getting the memo 👀
October hike odds climbed near 70%, yet BTC still broke $87K before pulling back. More importantly, spot ETFs drew nearly $1B in one day while corporate treasuries kept buying.
If those flows persist, this rally may be relying less on easy money and more on structural demand. The real test comes if yields keep climbing.
#FedHikesBTCResilience #DailyOrbit Bitcoin is showing surprising strength as expectations for higher interest rates continue to rise. BTC briefly pushed above $87K before cooling off, while spot ETF inflows approached $1B in a single day and corporate treasuries continued adding exposure. The bigger story isn’t just the price action—it’s the demand underneath it. If institutional and corporate buying remains strong, Bitcoin’s momentum could be becoming less dependent on loose monetary policy and more driven by structural demand. Guangxi guy, 26 years old, two-year contract: from a liquidation performance artist to an emotional management master
In 2024, at 24, I first got into the crypto world in a rental in Nanning. Back then, my salary was just over 4,000, after paying rent, my pockets were emptier than my face was clean. Seeing people in the group showing off contract profits, making in one day what I earned in a month, I thought: isn’t this the tailor-made path to getting rich for me?
Looking back now, it was a tailor-made path to liquidation.
I started with spot trading, made a few hundred yuan, but thought it was too slow. Then I moved to contracts, doubled my money in the first week. That feeling was like riding an electric bike downhill without being able to brake—thrilling, but bound to crash sooner or later. Then I began the standard newbie routine: leverage up, chase highs and sell lows, hold losing positions, add margin, get liquidated, then deposit more money. Liquidation notifications were more punctual than my mom waking me up.
At my wildest, I used high leverage, watching K-lines at 3 a.m. The red glow from my phone hit my face like a horror movie scene. When liquidation hit, my fingers trembled, and my mind had only one thought: deposit one more time, recover everything in one trade. But recovery never came; credit cards and online loans arrived first. I owed 132,750 in total, tried every borrowing and cashing method I could.
Relatives saw crypto as pyramid schemes + gambling + the worst kind of unfilial behavior. My dad was silent on the phone for a long time, then said, "Come back, working in a factory is fine too." Friends initially advised me, then bluntly said, "Wake up, even screwing bolts is better than this." My girlfriend left too; she said she couldn’t see a future. I said the future was in the K-line; she said there was no me in the K-line.
At my worst, I had only 37 yuan on me, owed two months’ rent, eating plain porridge and pickled vegetables every day. During the humid season, walls leaked water, bedding was damp; I suspected even the walls lived better than me. I didn’t dare go home for New Year, lied to my mom saying I was working overtime. She asked, "Are you out of money?" I gritted my teeth and said no. After hanging up, tears kept falling. Every phone ring scared me, fearing it was debt collectors. Looking at liquidation records, I even thought about whether jumping into the Yong River would be a release.
But I didn’t jump. Because the Yong River wind was too strong, I was afraid of catching a cold, and afraid of making my mom cry.
Later, I realized one thing: I wasn’t trading at all, I was gambling. Gambling on direction, gambling on news, gambling on luck. I deleted the words "break even" from my mind, found a night shift job, and reviewed trades during the day. At first, I only used a very small part of my salary for trading, leverage so low that friends said, "You call this contracts? This is like a money market fund." Every trade had to have a stop loss, cutting losses before it hurt. I kept a trading journal: Why enter? Because of itchy hands. What was wrong? Everything. What’s my emotional level now? 1: want to open a position, 2: really want to open a position, 3: want to sell a kidney to open a position. At level 2, I shut down the computer.
The hardest part wasn’t learning strategies, it was controlling my hands. Seeing others’ profit screenshots made me itch to trade. Deleted the app, reinstalled it, deleted it again, like a dieter sneaking midnight snacks of old friend noodles. Later, I forced myself to run every day, and after reviewing trades, I shut down the computer. Gradually, from losing, to not losing, to small profits.
In two years, I paid off my debts, and my account touched six figures for the first time. Not by one 100x trade, but by dozens of small wins, a few big wins, and countless times resisting the urge to trade.
Relatives still don’t understand, but they no longer call me crazy. I know contracts aren’t a path for ordinary people to turn their lives around; it’s a one-in-nine chance of survival. I’m writing this to tell you: surviving in this market is the only qualification to talk about the future.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC has bounced back again, now at 83736.3, just a little below the resistance at 84000. Let me tell you something, I previously lost 200,000 U because I chased the price at times like this, thinking that after such a rise it would continue to go up, but ended up buying at the peak. Now I've learned my lesson: opening a small position of 5000 U, not holding through losses, always with a stop loss. Current support is at 83118, resistance at 84000; if it breaks 84000, I'll lightly go long with a stop loss at 83700 and a target of 84500. If it can't break 84000, I'll lightly try shorting with a stop loss at 84200 and a target of 83500. What do you all think? $ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 9
Today was a rollercoaster day: the account dropped to a low of 138 in the morning, which made my heart skip a beat; then at noon, there was a rapid surge straight up to 217. The close was at 207.74, up +10.67 (+5.41%) for the day.
From 138 to 217, the amplitude was 57% within one day. This kind of volatility is the leverage truth-revealer—people with 2x leverage just watch the show, while those with 20x leverage have already met the grim reaper twice.
Today I also added a new rule to my strategy specifically for high leverage:
If I want to open 10x or 20x leverage, I only use 50% of my total position, add margin to the remaining 50%, and must set the stop-loss key points first. Halve the position, double the buffer, move the stop-loss forward—I can tolerate slow profits, but I cannot afford another wipeout. I still remember those three liquidation days from a few days ago.
Also, I found something interesting today: the post I made yesterday suddenly exploded to over 10,000 views. What does this mean? It means as long as the content is updated and the views are solid, traffic will come by itself. So from now on, my posts will include tags of the day’s hot coins, for example today’s top three: $ONDO $ZEC $SUI
Since I mentioned them, here’s a quick note on today’s hot topics, no deep dive:
$ONDO rose about 5% today, a veteran in the RWA track, recently under close watch.
$ZEC, a privacy coin, has been really strong from last year until now, consolidating at a high level for a long time.
$SUI rose 11% today, a lively public chain, it always runs fast whenever the market warms up.
I may not trade these three coins, but since everyone is searching for them, I’ll say this—I only follow trends, not stories. Whoever forms a trend, I follow; if it just pumps once and then fizzles out, I wait for exhaustion.
Account at 207.74, starting from $10 on day 4. Taking it slow, I’m not in a hurry this time.
Let’s chat in the comments:
Which of $ONDO $ZEC $SUI do you hold? Who do you favor more?
Always use stop-loss, low leverage, position management, all holdings and funds fully disclosed. For reference only, not investment advice. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 My first reaction to this is: it's still the same house, just with a fancier doorplate.
Aave V4 has launched a US stock token lending on Base, where non-US users can use tokenized shares of Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and 4 other stocks as collateral to borrow USDC.
Sounds fresh, but the numbers bring you back to reality.
The combined collateral cap for the 7 stocks is 29 million, and the maximum USDC that can be borrowed is 21 million.
In the whole DeFi space, this scale is barely a ripple.
Also, the stocks can only be used as collateral, not lent out.
In plain terms, this is just a testing ground for now.
For long-term holders, what’s really worth pondering isn’t the 29 million, but whether this path can be expanded in the future.
On-chain US stocks, on-chain lending, on-chain liquidation—if this really works, that would be a whole different story.
But for now, don’t rush to treat it as some big narrative.
I just want to ask: when the tokenized Nvidia you hold can really be borrowed against for stablecoins anytime, would you still want to go back to using brokers?
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 #ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $TSLA $NVDA On the evening of 9.25, I finished reviewing the official CORE X, and here’s the conclusion: all expectations, none realized.
No major official announcements, just a screen full of reposts, still riding the tail end of overseas roadshows. It reposted a partner’s post saying contact with the US bank hasn’t stopped, discussing BTC-Fi compliant custody—but it’s just "in talks," no signing announcement in sight.
On the development side, an upgrade, native BTC staking opened a new round of testing to pave the way for SatPay, but it’s still in testing. Foreigners in the comments are probing about token unlocking and mainnet performance, and the admin just throws out "roadmap unchanged," with no definite launch time for SatPay.
The overseas community is already split into two camps.
Bulls cling tightly: the US business line hasn’t broken, so the BTC-Fi story can still be told. The chart’s 15-minute pullback held the 0.02335 SuperTrend support; they see it as consolidation before a breakout, waiting for news to ignite.
! All is expectation fermentation, no solid proof, plus unlocking selling pressure, pure narrative market with huge uncertainty. $BTC #OKX星球话题来啦 #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Costco's EPS this quarter exceeded expectations at $0.22, of which $0.15 is tariff refunds — about 70% of the excess is money returned from others.
▪️ Q4 revenue 95.7 billion (+11.1%), EPS 6.75 (expected 6.53); tariff refunds 184 million ≈ about one-third of the expected total, excluding which EPS growth is 14.9% → 12.4%
▪️ Refunds are not fully received yet, but price cuts have already been implemented: Kirkland walnuts 13.79 → 9.99
▪️ Comparable sales +9.4%, excluding gasoline and exchange rates only +6.7%, slower than last quarter's 7.4%; paid membership growth has declined for four consecutive quarters, 84.1 million below expectations
Micron takes over at midnight on 10/1, guiding 50 billion / gross margin 86%. The market's question is not whether it can exceed expectations, but how long this cycle of prosperity can last — on 9/24 Burry disclosed increasing short positions, also shorting semiconductor ETFs.
The disagreement is not about exceeding expectations, but whether the excess is pocket change or capital: the refunds are money returned, the price cuts are permanent.
Refunds exchanged for permanent price cuts — is this strengthening the moat or an early overdraft?#FedHikesBTCResilience Higher rates are supposed to hurt Bitcoin. This time, buyers aren't getting the memo 👀
October hike odds climbed near 70%, yet BTC still broke $87K before pulling back. More importantly, spot ETFs drew nearly $1B in one day while corporate treasuries kept buying.
What stands out is BTC holding up despite tighter policy.
If those flows persist, this rally may be relying less on easy money and more on structural demand. The real test comes if yields keep climbing.This 1-month rise has directly erased the decline of the previous 7 months, with the key level for $SOL seen at 120
If it holds, there will be room to look at 125 or even higher;
If it doesn't hold, it can easily become a false breakout, and funds will flow back to BTC or go into wait-and-see mode.
This round of SOL's rise looks fierce,
But essentially it's still driven by sentiment recovery + capital rotation + ETF support;
▶️ Altcoin season index is rising, BTC is consolidating around 84,000, and funds are rotating to SOL.
▶️ Meme sentiment is driving short-term buying,
▶️ On the ecosystem side, DEX activity, RWA, and stablecoin data are also good,
▶️ On September 24, the US spot SOL ETF had a net inflow of about $32.8 million, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $1.5 billion.
▶️ Sentiment ignited + positive stimuli, when it surged near 122 intraday, a batch of short positions was liquidated, accelerating this upward push.
Next, watch 120 as it changes from resistance to the immediate long-short dividing line:
1️⃣ Can the pullback to 120 be quickly bought back?
If it falls near 120 and is immediately bought back with no obvious volume shrinkage, it means the breakout is valid.
2️⃣ Can BTC continue to hold steady around 84,000?
If BTC consolidates, funds dare to continue rotating to high-elasticity assets like SOL; if BTC weakens, SOL will likely also pull back.
Don't rush to call for 300 yet, first hold 120.
If it holds, then talk about the next step; if it doesn't, treat it as a false breakout. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Trade Review and Reflection Log
Date: September 25, 2026
Trading Instrument: ETHUSDT Perpetual Contract
Position Direction: Long (Buy)
Entry Price: 2,730.00 USDT
Initial Capital: Approximately 14.11 USDT
Current Balance: 10.39 USDT
Daily Profit/Loss: -3.68 USDT (-26.20%)
1. Operation Review
1. Violation of Execution:
The original strategy was to use only 25% of the position size per trade for trial, but in this trade, it switched directly to full position (100% of capital).
Used 10x leverage, pushing the nominal position value close to 140 USDT (about 0.051 ETH).
2. Entering at a High Price:
Entered a long position at market price when the price surged to the high of 2,730.
This entry was over 30 USDT above the previous breakout point (2,700 level) and close to a dense daily resistance zone above, without waiting for any pullback confirmation.
3. Risk Control Failure and Passive Drawdown:
After the price surged, it quickly plunged and retraced.
Due to full position with 10x leverage lacking a safety margin, every 10 USDT price retracement caused about a 3.5% shrink in account capital; with a roughly 70 USDT retracement (breaking below around 2,660), the account net value dropped directly from 14.11 to 10.39 USDT, a single trade drawdown of 26.20%$FIL has really only been understood by long-term investors along the way.
I consider myself an early investor in $FIL. At first, I thought accumulating 100 FIL would be quite good. Unexpectedly, I later invested nearly 100,000, and at one point suffered a loss of about 99.83%. That period was really tough.
Later, I started repositioning around $0.6, and through continuous position adjustments, I have basically returned to near my cost. I currently hold about 7,000 $FIL.
I pay particular attention to several areas: the continuous development of the Filecoin ecosystem, network technology upgrades, and the growth in demand for large-scale data storage in the AI era.
If these narratives continue to materialize, I personally believe $FIL still has significant room for recovery. As for whether we can see $10 again this year, that can only be verified by the market.
Currently, my approach is not to blindly chase gains but to observe in batches and gradually build positions at low levels, then consider taking profits in batches after the market rises.
Of course, this is just my personal trading approach and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and position and risk management are always more important than fantasizing about target prices.
$FIL $BTC $ETH The 30-year US Treasury yield has broken through 5.5%, which is a bit outrageous at this level now. First of all, the 30-year term represents the long-term cost of capital. The higher the yield goes, the more the market is willing to lend money to the government long-term, and the higher the required return, which directly raises the valuation threshold for the entire market.
For US stocks, the greatest pressure is still on high valuations and high Beta. Because when long-term government bonds can yield 5%+, there is no need for capital to take on so much risk just for returns. A key condition for the tech stock rebound a few days ago was the decline in long-end interest rates and oil prices, combined with short covering.
Now that the 30Y yield has surged back above 5.5%, this support is moving in the opposite direction. Unless corporate earnings can continue to hold up, the market may have to compress valuations while relying on profits to absorb the pressure. The more troublesome scenario is if rates continue to rise and earnings forecasts start to be revised downward, which means both valuations and earnings will be hit.
The crypto space is the same. The higher the long-end rates, the more attractive cash and government bonds become, raising the opportunity cost of risk assets. BTC can still hold up somewhat thanks to ETFs and institutional allocations, but high Beta altcoins will suffer more.BTC's 12-month RSI has again touched near a historical low, marked in red on the chart for the fifth time.
Just saw @cryptorover's Bitbo chart highlighting 2012, 2015, 2019, 2023, and 2026 for comparison.
This low is around the 40s, just starting to tilt upwards a bit.
Simply put: in past cycles at similar positions, there were often large-scale rebounds afterward, but it doesn't guarantee a takeoff tomorrow.
I think this is more like a reminder "don't panic sell at the lowest point," not a reckless all-in signal. Interest rates remain high-pressure, and spot is stuck around 84,000.
I'm lightly holding spot here to see if RSI can stabilize and rebound; failure conditions: RSI breaks a new low again, or spot falls below near-term support and continues to decline.
Do you think this is a bull market confirmation signal, or just another fake rebound?
$BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $ETH $IBIT"Don't store all assets in one address: On-chain segregation rules for Bitcoin $BTC whales"
Many retail investors take the easy route, storing all their Bitcoin $BTC spot holdings from five years ago until now in the same on-chain address, even using this main address for transfers and various interactions.
This habit is very risky in today's highly transparent on-chain analysis:
1. Assets are fully transparent and public across the network: blockchain explorers are accessible to everyone. If you have ever exposed this address on any KYC deposit/withdrawal platform or when transferring to acquaintances, the other party can trace every balance in your wallet through the explorer.
2. Single point of failure risk concentration: once the device linked to this address is infected or malicious contracts are authorized, your entire fortune can be wiped out instantly.
3. Scientific tiered address management: split funds into "cold storage addresses (purely holding BTC, only incoming, never online)", "daily transfer addresses", and "small interaction addresses". Avoid direct transfers between addresses with different purposes; use exchanges as intermediaries to break association chains.
Protecting your on-chain privacy is protecting your wealth. Learning to put your eggs in different baskets is the only way to sleep peacefully through every bull and bear market. $BTC
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 ✏️ $BTC
We're watching active trading of price around the key resistance level at $84,600
As before, I'm still prioritizing further correction of the asset through the current consolidation
This setup stays valid as long as the mentioned resistance isn't broken with a hold above on 4H, in which case the local market picture changes. I set the stop on my remaining short volume at $85,300, also allowing for a manipulative squeeze a bit higher before they may resume the correctionSaylor is adding to his BTC position again, but the question is how much more can he actually buy?
Michael Saylor: Others study cycles, he studies inventory.
Strategy recently bought another 950 BTC at an average price of about $79,670, totaling approximately $76 million.
After the purchase, Strategy's holdings reached about 846,000 BTC.
This number is no longer just "buying BTC."
This is:
a BTC mine sitting directly on the company's books.
What's even more interesting is that Strategy has recently been repurchasing its preferred shares, with a funding scale even larger than the amount spent on buying BTC this time.
So what the market really cares about now is:
Will Saylor continue to buy?
If he does, it represents a sustained large buying narrative for BTC.
But if he pauses, the market might immediately start asking:
"Does even Saylor think the price isn't cheap anymore?"
Of course, this is currently just market speculation and does not mean Saylor has changed his BTC strategy.
After all, this guy's obsession with BTC is beyond what the word "faith" can explain.