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PPI Countdown: BTC Shows Signs of Accumulation, But Why Can't a Reversal Be Confirmed Yet?
Before tonight's US PPI release, BTC and ETH saw short-term net spot inflows of approximately $18.45 million and $15.6 million respectively, indicating that funds are attempting to catch the dip at lower levels. However, when extending the observation to 4-hour and 24-hour periods, the overall capital flow remains weak, with SOL continuously facing selling pressure.
This means localized buying is warming up, but it does not equate to a market reversal. Short-term funds may be positioning early or merely trying to bottom-fish; the key is whether the buying can be sustained after the data release.
The market expects PPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. If the data exceeds expectations, concerns over inflation and high interest rates may intensify, putting BTC's downside support to the test; if below expectations, risk appetite could recover, but any rebound still requires volume confirmation.
Next, focus on three key points: whether BTC spot buying can continue, whether ETH can hold key support levels, and whether SOL's capital flow can turn from negative to positive.
There is probing by funds before the data, but the direction only becomes clear after. Don't mistake short-term accumulation for a trend reversal; the real signal is sustained buying, not a momentary inflow. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 The market is mostly red, but $ZK has surged 12% against the trend! Is the technical breakthrough real, or is capital pushing it behind the scenes?
Brothers, today's $ZK is indeed a bit different!
The market is still under pressure, and $ARB and $OP, which are also in the L2 track, are weak, but $ZK has stubbornly formed an independent trend. The catalyst behind it is not simple: with just one graphics card, it generated proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks, and reportedly 99% of the proofs can be completed within 10 seconds.
The technical strength is indeed impressive, but strong technology does not necessarily mean the token is worth chasing! 👀
What I care more about is whether there is real ecological demand and token value support behind the lively technical narrative?
📉 First, the ecological fundamentals still need improvement.
ZKsync Era's current DeFi TVL is about $15 million, which still has a significant gap compared to the ecosystems of ARB and OP. Technical breakthroughs can bring attention, but whether it can further convert into users, capital, and actual applications is the key to whether the subsequent market can sustain.
⚠️ Second, token value capture still has uncertainties.
The previously planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been officially launched after the v31 adjustment. In other words, technical progress does not mean token demand will grow simultaneously. It still depends on when the specific mechanism will be implemented and whether it can truly generate value.
🐳 Third, the concentration of holdings is worth watching.
Currently, the top ten addresses hold nearly 51% of $ZK.TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high again, and the earnings report will be released tonight. What exactly does this have to do with SanDisk? Pharaoh directly said, TSMC is the "road builder," and SanDisk is the "water seller by the roadside." The wider the road is built, the more water is sold, but when the road is being built, dust flies everywhere, and the water seller has to take a mouthful of dust first. Let's first look at how strong TSMC's report card is. Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, about 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, setting a single-quarter historical high and breaking records for the sixth consecutive quarter. Wall Street expects net profit to be about 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year surge of 65%, again setting a historical high. Revenue for the first nine months has already reached 3.89 trillion New Taiwan dollars, directly surpassing the entire previous year. So is this good or bad news for SanDisk? In the short term, it's an "emotional collateral damage," but in the long term, it's a "demand confirmation." Let's first look at the short-term pitfall. After TSMC's Q3 revenue was announced, its stock price actually fell by 1.4%. Why? Because September's single-month revenue dropped 0.6% month-on-month, and the market felt the "good news was fully priced in." Even more painful is that when TSMC's stock rose, memory stocks fell. On October 12, Micron fell more than 2%, SanDisk nearly 2%, SK Hynix and Western Digital all declined. Market funds are rotating within the semiconductor sector, flowing towards TSMC's advanced process, while memory stocks are being drained. But the long-term logic holds. TSMC's revenue growth is driven by AI chip foundry demand, with customers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom placing massive orders. For every AI chip produced, a bunch of accompanying components must be matched behind it.$BTC didn't crash because retail investors ran out of chips; now retail investors are all playing with altcoins📊 History always shockingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutional acceleration: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price stabilization and active buying follow, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. Here’s something you might not know: $STRK vs $NEAR quantum-resistant narrative comparison
Both focus on post-quantum security, but their technical approaches are completely different.
$STRK relies on the STARK proof system, fundamentally based on hash functions rather than elliptic curves, making the proof layer inherently quantum-resistant. Coupled with native account abstraction, the account signature logic can be upgraded independently without requiring a hard fork.
Its drawback is that it is currently still an Ethereum L2, with underlying settlement security dependent on ETH. The team plans to transition to an independent L1, aiming to fully implement quantum resistance by 2027. Market hype focuses on the dual narrative of ZK + quantum resistance, with the ecosystem centered on ZK applications.
$NEAR is an L1 public chain that has already launched on mainnet the NIST-standard ML-DSA lattice-based post-quantum signature. Users can rotate quantum-resistant keys per transaction without migrating addresses, making it the first mainstream public chain to implement account-level quantum-resistant signatures.
However, its consensus layer has not yet completed quantum-resistant upgrades, with the account layer leading and further upgrades pending. An additional highlight is support for quantum-secure signatures for cross-chain assets, with the narrative leaning towards a general-purpose L1 infrastructure.
Differences at the transaction layer: STRK’s quantum resistance is a fundamental advantage at the proof layer, emphasizing a long-term cryptographic security story; NEAR’s account signature feature is already live and verifiable in practice. Most underrated line in TSMC's report is the guide. Next-quarter revenue is guided to $52.3–54.3B vs $46.7B this quarter, with margins of 65–67%. If AI capex were peaking, that guide wouldn't look like this.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Hello everyone, I am Mosheng. In the crypto circle, I have profited 10,000 U and currently reached 1,800 U. Last night when the data came out, I wanted to try bottom fishing but found the rebound was not great, so I switched to shorting a position casually with a small lot on $KORU. After all, it has dropped so much, I don't believe Korea won't come out to rescue it.
This round has been continuously falling since the year's high point, mainly due to the downward revision of HBM profit expectations, market concerns about AI capital expenditure slowdown, and rising storage supply risks; combined with US CPI exceeding expectations, the Fed's rate hike expectations rising, US Treasury yields climbing, and foreign capital continuously selling large amounts of Korean semiconductor heavyweight stocks. During the index's continuous decline, KORU relies on daily reset leverage, amplifying the decline threefold, while continuously generating net asset value loss, making it much harder to rebound and recover.
US Treasury rates rise, rate hike expectations strong → USD strong, foreign capital runs from Korean stocks → KORU must fall
Rate cuts, liquidity easing → Korean stocks rebound, KORU shows strongest explosive power #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CZ said on X that hardware wallets should use transparent cases in the future. The background is this month's reseller supply chain incident, with on-chain statistics showing about $86 million to $93 million stolen, involving over 300 wallets. The tampered devices had their batteries thinned and inserted with boards containing LTE modules; the packaging was intact, and official inspections still passed. Transparent cases can cover the invisible weak points. What is overlooked is that implants can be hidden under the chips, and ordinary people cannot distinguish by just looking at the circuit board. It has been confirmed that all losses came from the same reseller, indicating the problem lies in the channel. Trezor plans to cut off third-party resellers before January next year, and OneKey will cut off 95% of resellers. CZ-associated YZi Labs invested in OneKey, so this viewpoint should be discounted. I predict that next quarter manufacturers will mainly promote official direct sales, and transparent cases will at most be optional models. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, setting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 estimated revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, also a record high. Fundamentally, this is driven by AI computing power orders boosting advanced process volume. However, the high revenue growth is only a scale phenomenon; the real test of profit quality is whether the gross margin can hold within the 65%-67% range. Currently, TSMC is caught in a production expansion paradox: the stronger the AI demand, the higher the capital expenditure, depreciation, and overseas factory costs, compounded by yield losses from ramping up the 2nm new process, continuously eroding profit elasticity. The high concentration of AI orders also hides risks of customer bargaining and demand cycle fluctuations. If the gross margin approaches the upper limit of the range, it proves that the pricing power of advanced processes is sufficient to cover the additional costs; if the gross margin is under pressure, even with impressive revenue, net profit growth will significantly lag behind revenue, and the market will reassess the sustainability of this AI dividend. #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tesla's latest delivery data exceeded market expectations, temporarily dispelling concerns about weakening demand, but the focus of capital has shifted from "how many cars were sold" to whether the gross margin can recover. Previously, to boost orders, Tesla continuously adopted a price-cutting strategy, a typical volume-for-price trade-off. Although delivery data has improved, per-car profit has been compressed, which is currently the biggest point of contention.
The market's core question now: after sales rebound, can Tesla escape the price war and stabilize or even raise the vehicle gross margin? If Q3 earnings show margin recovery and cost control exceeds expectations, it will drive TSLA higher and boost sentiment for Nasdaq growth stocks.
Mid-to-long-term positives include FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage business. FSD subscription is high-margin software revenue, and energy storage has significantly higher gross margins than vehicles, serving as a future source of profit elasticity; however, short-term contribution is limited and unlikely to quickly offset vehicle profit pressure.
Transmission to crypto market: Tesla is a highly elastic Nasdaq stock, and its price fluctuations influence overall risk appetite. If earnings fall short of expectations, it may trigger valuation cuts in growth stocks, indirectly suppressing high-beta assets like $BTC and $ETH; if earnings exceed expectations, it will provide short-term support sentiment. However, this is cross-market linkage and unlikely to produce an independent trend.
Key follow-up points: vehicle gross margin, free cash flow, and management's statements on future pricing strategy and FSD commercialization. Delivery data is only a leading signal; profit indicators are the key to determining capital attitude. $BTC $ETH US inflation data exceeded expectations, US Treasury yields strengthened, and the dollar's rise directly drained market liquidity. ETH fell 6.03% yesterday, hitting a low of 2318 and closing near 2357. SOL weakened in sync, at 100.86, down over 7% for the week. Derivatives market long positions were liquidated in succession, futures open interest contracted, leverage ratio declined, and selling pressure came from forced liquidations rather than active short selling.
Just unscrewed the thermos cup on the guard post windowsill; the water is still a bit hot.
ETH current price is 2366.9. Daily MACD shows a golden cross upward, RSI rebounded from oversold territory. But the liquidation map shows a large number of long liquidation orders stacked between 2350 and 2400; during the upward sweep, a round of liquidation selling pressure will be triggered first, so a short-term pullback is needed. 2400 is a strong resistance.
In terms of operation, buy on dips in the 2340 to 2355 range, with a stop loss below 2318, which is yesterday's low; if broken, admit the mistake. First take profit at 2400, second at 2460. If there is a volume breakout above 2400 and it holds, you can add to longs, targeting 2500. Do not touch short positions; the risk-reward ratio is too poor to short against the daily golden cross structure.
The long-term trend is intact; the short term is just a liquidation-driven shakeout. Control position size, do not chase highs near 2350.
The walkie-talkie is ringing, time to make a round.
$ETH
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
@OKX星球 PPI data is about to be released, BTC has fallen below 81,000, but open interest has quietly surged to 2.58 billion. The lower the price falls, the more leverage is added; this is even scarier than the long-short ratio.
In simple terms: $BTC current price 81,000, 24h low 80,168, open interest 2.583 billion, funding rate still positive, longs are still paying shorts. $ETH dropped to 2,363, open interest increased from 1.35 billion to 1.54 billion, people keep adding positions. $SOL is the worst, at 102.26, with a low of 100.46, funding rate has turned negative, shorts are starting to collect money, longs can’t even afford the interest.
What does this mean? Longs haven’t fled, they’re still holding on. Price falls, open interest rises, a typical bloodied hold. If tonight at 20:30 PPI exceeds expectations, these added longs will be the first wave of fuel. Once the liquidation dense zone is breached, the chain reaction will be fiercer than last night.
I’m not bearish; in this market, opening positions is a gamble on size. Let leverage clean itself out first, wait for liquidation data to cool down and market volatility to narrow, then consider entering with the trend.
Key levels: BTC 80,000/78,000, ETH 2,300/2,200, SOL 100/95. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife below these round numbers.
How are you planning to act on tonight’s PPI?
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC财库优先股融资升温
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
$LINK This chart is really awkward. After 9 days of cooperation landing and Stellar's data services officially running, normally this kind of news would be enough to push it up, but it dropped 6.8% in 24 hours, 7% in 7 days, just sitting at the lowest point in the past 7 days, with volume only 1.4 times the usual.
Good news causing a sell-off boils down to two things: either the news was already priced in long ago, with smart money having exited after a 10% rise in 30 days and 46% in 90 days; or this asset simply ignores news and only follows Bitcoin's mood. Today Bitcoin fell below 81k, 180,000 people liquidated, the whole market is forced to reduce positions, who still has spare money to catch a good news rally.
I lean towards the first. Real good news has been talked about in the market three weeks in advance; those popping champagne when the announcement comes out are often the last batch to enter.
Let's see if the 12.02 level can hold. For a rebound, we need to see volume pick up and recover; this kind of low-volume slow decline can't hold it. $LINK Predict Fun's single-day capture fees reached $313,000, surpassing $300,000 in a single day again after the World Cup final day, ranking fourth in BNB Chain protocol fees.
Many prediction market platforms gradually lost activity or even ceased operations after the World Cup, but Predict Fun experienced a significant secondary growth.
The core driving force behind this is the short-term fluctuation market represented by BTC 5min, contributing over 60% of the fees.
In the most recent full trading day, Predict Fun's Crypto 5min market set a new record for single-day trading volume, surpassing Polymarket comprehensively in the three core metrics of trading volume, unique trading users, and number of trades.
Additionally, Predict Fun is also continuously growing in the 15min market, TradFi, and Esports sectors, with the 15min market particularly gradually competing for Polymarket's market share The market sentiment has definitely shifted. Brother Maji used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time his total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts—short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH. He's playing a left-right ambidextrous game by himself. Breaking it down makes it clearer: On the BTC side, there's a 40x short opened at 84070, with an unrealized profit of about 220,000 U, and funding fees actually earned 56,600 U, so the account looks favorable; but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can hit him hard, so don't just focus on the unrealized profit. On the ETH side, there's a 25x long opened at 2541, with an unrealized loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he's stubbornly holding the long position—either betting on a rebound or using it as a hedge in a portfolio. That strong spike this morning, I seriously suspect it was aimed at his position. HYPE is the harshest: a 5x short opened at 65.8, with an unrealized loss of 4.21 million U, funding fees collected 1.03 million U, which helps ease the cost, but price volatility doesn't care about your feelings. So this is not a full bearish stance; it's clearly a directional differentiation between coins. Going forward, watch three things: whether BTC can stabilize, whether ETH can rise, and whether this HYPE short can hold up. You can observe the smart money's positions, but don't copy blindly—the key is to figure out why they are positioned this way, not just to follow because they bought.The storage sector surged fiercely some time ago, and now it is falling just as sharply.
AI demand growth is a fact, but stock prices have already priced in expectations prematurely, along with the impact of risk-free assets.
SanDisk's earnings report on October 29 is approaching, and the market has already started to reprice.
I choose to continue holding short positions, bearish in the short term, but that does not mean I am pessimistic about the storage industry in the long run.
No matter how good the performance is, it depends on how much valuation the market has given in advance.
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Where is the Core public chain headed?
Screenshot from OKX on October 15 at 17:02: CORE/USDT perpetual contract at 0.01798, down 2.49% in 24 hours, lowest at 0.01712, with a trading volume of 1.5581 million USDT. EMA5 at 0.01812, EMA10 at 0.01839, and EMA20 at 0.01878—all three lines are above the price, with the short-term moving average below the long-term moving average, indicating a classic bearish setup; MACD's DIFF is -0.00047, histogram -0.00018, still below the zero line; open interest has shrunk to 1.29 million USD, already below the sub-chart scale of 1.59 to 1.92 million. The only line worth watching below is the newly hit 0.01712 today.
I went long at 0.02088, which is exactly the resistance line above on the chart. The nominal drop is 13.9%, which translates to approximately -69.4% of principal at 5x leverage, excluding funding fees. The profit/loss shown on screen is -195.93. To get back to 0.02088, it needs to rise 16.1%.
The position is more critical than the drop. btc126 wrote today that the distance to the historical low is 8.80%, with that low point on July 28 at 0.0167.
Three unresolved issues: On December 22, 2025, the Core Foundation released the 2026 roadmap, stating that repurchases of CORE would be funded by revenues from AMP, BTC LST, SatPay, and ETF/ETP, but no funds have been seen flowing back so far. The actual annual inflation is 35.73%, while the protocol's target is 3% to 5%. During the September validator over-issuance event, there was a hard fork with no rollback, five exchanges suspended deposits and withdrawals, the promised official technical review has not been made public to date, and on October 1, block production was handed over to an independent operator.
Three questions for everyone:
When will verifiable on-chain data for repurchases be available?
If it breaks below 0.01712 to test 0.0167, do you see it as a risk or an opportunity?
How much trust is left after an unexplained over-issuance?
I am long at 0.02088 myself; this article does not discuss the next steps. All data have sources and snapshot times and do not constitute investment advice. Contracts involve leverage and liquidation risks.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a new high; what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises full-year revenue growth forecasts and increases capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved; moving to Texas is not urgent and seems more like a long-term layout or geopolitical bargaining chip for post-2030.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.This market really is brutal and heart-wrenching!
$SKHYNIX has plunged sharply these past two days, dropping nearly 15% in 24 hours, now barely holding around $939. After last night's CPI data release, it just tanked like it took a laxative.
The worst hit are those big players! From last night until now, three major whales got absolutely hammered, closing nearly $3.88 million worth of long positions combined, with actual losses hitting $887,000. Some actively cut losses with tears, others tried to hold on but got forcibly liquidated in batches. Now all three accounts are wiped out and gone—it's a bloodbath!
But here's something interesting. This plunge pushed the funding rate into negative territory for a while, indicating panic selling flooding out. Yet this morning, bottom-fishing capital rushed back in aggressively, flipping the funding rate from negative to positive in just two hours—intense battle going on.
Looking at the liquidation chart, there's still over $5 million in long liquidation exposure around $888, just about 5.5% below the current price. If it can't hold and dips further, expect another wave of cascading liquidations. The long-side risk is far from over.$ETH $BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC $ETH $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling, no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is capital withdrawing:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Once CPI heats up, the whole market gets hammered. $ZEC, $SOL, and $BTC are all falling, but the ways they fall are completely different.
$ZEC is crashing the hardest. Down 12% in 24h, current price 1096, position volume shrinks by 13.6%, with 19 million liquidations almost all longs. Funding rate annualized near 10%, leverage is too crowded, causing a stampede at any reversal. 1000 is the last line of defense.
$SOL is dragged down by funding but has the strongest fundamentals. Current price 102.3, down 5% in 24h, ETF has been sold for 7 consecutive days. Q3 application revenue is 365 million, up 42.6% year-over-year; on October 21, Alpenglow launched on mainnet, reducing confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. Breaking 100 targets 90.
$BTC is the most resilient. Current price 80927, down 10 points less than ZEC, whale holdings at 3.03 million coins, a near one-year high. But USD spot is withdrawing, ETF outflows last week reached 680 million. Breaking 80000 targets 78000.
The essence of the three: ZEC is paying down leveraged debt, SOL is waiting for capital to return, BTC’s funds haven’t fully left. There’s another round tonight—will it continue falling or stabilize? We’ll watch as it unfolds. #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM $xTSM#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Perhaps expectations were too high, and people have already priced in the stock.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, making this a very solid foundation.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies with the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is another key point to watch.#Strive increased its BTC holdings by 2,822 coins in two days, with total holdings exceeding 35,000 coins $BTC
In eight weeks, it grew by 62%, while the largest one increased by less than 1%.
▪️ Added 12,527 coins from 8/14 to 10/9, a holding growth of about 62%
▪️ During the same period, Strategy's holdings rose from 840,447 to 848,250 coins, an increase of less than 1%
▪️ Added another 2,822 coins in two days, with holdings exceeding 35,000 coins
▪️ Metaplanet sold 10,000 coins in Q3 but bought back 11,000, a net increase of 1,000 coins
▪️ Twenty One has not increased holdings since July 2025, and MARA has remained basically flat since May
The divergence is not about who holds the most coins, but about "holding rankings" in terms of volume stock and "growth rankings" in terms of volume increase.
840,447 to 848,250 is a change in stock, 12,527 versus 20,246 is a change in increment—two completely opposite rankings in the same industry.
The direction suggests waiting and watching—small-cap companies continuing to absorb increments is the real trend; if the large-cap one accelerates again, the pattern returns to stock.🔥Market Analysis | South Korean Stocks Plunge, Memory Sector Under Pressure, US Stock Market Opening Preview Tonight
Key image information: South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 6% intraday, triggering the Sidecar programmatic sell suspension mechanism; SK Hynix dropped over 8%, Samsung Electronics fell nearly 7%, dragging the Nikkei 225 down over 3%, with Japanese and Korean chip stocks collectively weakening. $SNDK $MU
✅Event Logic
The core reason for the current sell-off in South Korean stocks is the semiconductor memory sector. The market is worried that technical breakthroughs by Changxin Memory will bring long-term supply shocks, compounded by inflation and interest rate expectations disturbances, leading to concentrated sell-offs in memory chip targets. Samsung and SK Hynix, as the two global DRAM leaders, have plunged sharply, which will directly transmit negative sentiment to US memory stocks (Micron MU, SanDisk SNDK).
📊US Stock Market Opening Simulation Tonight
1. Pre-market sentiment: The memory sector is highly likely to open lower under pressure. The sharp declines of Korean and Japanese memory giants represent negative sentiment spillover in the sector, so Micron and SanDisk are likely to be dragged down at the open. But it should be distinguished that this is a long-term competitive expectation negative, not a current earnings shock for the companies.
2. Differentiation Opportunities
Micron MU: Business covers DRAM, more strongly impacted by the South Korean stock decline linkage, with greater volatility.
SanDisk SNDK: Mainly NAND flash memory, with no direct competition with the DRAM track. If capital rationally differentiates the tracks, there is a chance for it to show relatively resilient performance later.
3. Major Market Variables
Don't just look at South Korean stocks; US Treasury yields, tonight's PPI data, and overall Nasdaq sentiment also have significant influence. If US Treasury yields fall back, it will hedge some of the panic in the chip sector.台积电Q3财报出来了，数字炸裂，但股价跌了。 营收同比增长50.9%到1.49万亿新台币，净利润同比增长68.7%到7631亿，创季度新高，超过市场预期。2nm制程占晶圆营收的8%，先进制程整体占比79%。AI芯片需求持续为业绩提供支撑，这个基本盘很硬。 但股价跌了2.67%。问题出在毛利率指引上。公司给的65%到67%，低于Q2实际的67.7%。市场担心的是，AI芯片再旺，如果毛利率往下走，说明先进制程的成本压力在吃掉利润。另外资本开支会不会进一步上调，也是接下来要盯的。 对BTC来说，这事不直接，但底层逻辑连着。台积电是AI算力基建的核心供应商，它的营收和利润验证了AI需求是真实的，算力经济的叙事没断，BTC作为底层锚定物的长期逻辑还在。但毛利率指引偏弱，说明烧钱的代价在上升，整个半导体链条$SKHYNIX SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix has started to consolidate while SanDisk is plummeting!!!
Institutions have begun to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard.
Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed its overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading the market to briefly lose confidence in SanDisk.
Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions have started to support the stock, and retail investors and whales are beginning to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings report.
SNDK current price is a good entry for short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $NEAR perpetual 50x short position, opened at 5.075, currently at 4.563, floating profit +504.43%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 5.075, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage, stop loss at 5.2. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 4.8 to let profits run. If 4.2 breaks down with volume, I will continue holding; if it doesn't break, I will close all positions. $BTC $ETH #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Netflix guided Q3 revenue growth of 12% and an operating margin of 33.2%. The year-ago margin was 28.2%, but that quarter included a $619M Brazil tax charge, so the comparison flatters it. A beat or miss hinges on ads. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins 最脆弱的一环从来不是方向，是仓位太挤之后大家都不肯先走。 你猜现在最难受的是空头还是追高的人？ 刷到Maji大哥的永续持仓更新，我盯着那组数字看了很久。整体还是BTC空加ETH多再加HYPE空的组合，但账面盈亏已经跟着行情撕成两半。 - BTC空单四十倍全仓，持仓243.96枚，名义约1994万U，开仓84070，未实现盈利约56.87万U，资金费还收了6.41万U，爆仓价104380附近。 - ETH多单二十五倍全仓，持仓7222枚，名义约1743万U，开仓2541，浮亏约92.27万U，爆仓价1623.5。 - HYPE空单五倍全仓，持仓26.83万枚，名义约2168万U，开仓66.24，浮亏约390.94万U，但资金费收入约104.2万U，爆仓价99.76。 这组仓位其实在讲一件事。钱现在更愿意奖励看空BTC的人，却还在惩罚看空HYPE的人。前者顺着宏观避险和风险偏好收缩的方向，后者撞上了叙事和买盘的惯性。ETH夹在中间，既没跟上BTC的疲软，也没吃到HYPE那种情绪溢价，所以它的多单成了拖累。 我更在意的是情绪层面。HYPE这笔浮亏已经接近390万U，换成一般人早就砍了，但大哥#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️Risks to watch
1. Slight sequential decline in gross margin, mainly due to higher costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Heavy reliance on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) has high costs and long build cycles, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is proceeding smoothly, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, hitting a record high in earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue also reached a new high; what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises the full-year revenue growth forecast and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout for post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered. Looking ahead:
▶️ Beware of short-term profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Deep long-term moat
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.
Do you think it will take Elon Musk's offer in Texas, or stick to steady progress?Once the CPI was released, many people's first reaction was: prices are heating up again, gold should shine on stage, right?✨
Reality slapped back: gold prices plunged, instantly evaporating 1.65%, breaking 4096, even touching 4088.😵
BTC, however, acted like nothing happened, strolling in the 81000–83000 range.🚶♂️
The logic isn't complicated: stubborn inflation → Fed dares not ease → high interest rates persist → US Treasury yields surge → gold holding costs rise → funds retreat.📉
The gold script has long changed: it used to be "inflation comes, I rise," now it's "Fed hawkish, I kneel."🦅
At the end of the day, gold, BTC, and US stocks seem to be doing their own thing, but they're all betting on the same question: will liquidity ease or not.💧
Don't fight the candlesticks, first watch the central bank's mood. The market hasn't gone crazy, it just changed directors.🎬#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, setting a record high for earnings. TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high again, but the quarter-over-quarter decline in gross margin is the biggest highlight of this earnings report. AI demand is confirmed to be strong, but large-scale capacity expansion brings depreciation pressure, which is starting to erode gross margins. The market has long since priced in the high Q3 revenue, with all bets now on the Q4 revenue guidance and capital expenditure plans.
Capital expenditure has been raised, which is a long-term positive for capacity and consolidates the monopoly position in advanced process technology; the short-term cost is pressure on profit margins. Musk's Terafab negotiations for foundry services are a long-term theme with no short-term earnings contribution. The upcoming earnings call will focus on three key points: Q4 revenue guidance, the extent of the capital expenditure increase, and management's stance on the future gross margin baseline. Aramco headquarters attacked, the news is alarming, but don't jump to conclude that the office building damage means crude oil production has already been cut.
On October 14, the Associated Press cited regional officials saying that Aramco's headquarters in Dammam was hit, with damage to the floor housing senior offices, and no casualties reported. This indicates that core corporate office facilities are also under threat, but it does not tell us how much oilfield output or export shipments have decreased.
I think what should be separated here is the loss that has already occurred and the market's concern about the risk of the next attack. The former needs to be verified through production, refinery, and port operation data; the latter may cause buyers to worry about delivery even before any shutdown. Both affect prices, but they cannot be substituted with the same narrative.
If it is later confirmed that production continues as usual, the supply gap should not be exaggerated based on speculation. But what about the next time? Repeated attacks will keep people questioning whether critical facilities can operate safely. The risk remains, but specific losses need separate verification.
I hope casualties and damage stop soon, and I do not want every attack to be used as material to hype the market. Going forward, I will pay closer attention to Aramco's operational statements and whether actual exports have changed. When making energy assessments, admitting "we currently don't know how much production has been cut" is more responsible than filling gaps with unverified evidence just to support a strong viewpoint. The headquarters being hit is serious enough; there is no need to add unconfirmed supply losses.
#沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Q3 net profit indeed exploded, but the stock price instead dropped more than 2%, a typical case of “good news priced in as bad news.” The market is not selling off the present, but the Q4 gross margin guidance (65%-67%) being lower than Q2. AI demand is certain, but the ramp-up of 2nm and overseas factory construction costs are starting to show, plus capital expenditures may be further increased, causing concerns about profit margin peaking.
In the short term, it’s valuation digestion; in the long term, the AI structural logic remains intact. I choose to wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering, not chasing highs.
What does everyone think? Is the gross margin decline a short-term disturbance or a long-term trend? #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 ⚠️Risks to watch
1. Slight sequential decline in gross margin, mainly due to higher costs during the ramp-up phase of the 2nm new process, which drags down gross margin in the short term
2. Heavy reliance on major AI clients; if AI capital expenditures cool down in the future, orders will face pressure
3. Overseas factory construction (USA, Japan) has high costs and long build cycles, which will continue to increase capital expenditure pressure
✅Summary in one sentence
AI computing power demand continues to explode, driving TSMC's advanced process orders to be full and pushing profits to a record high for six consecutive quarters; 2nm mass production is proceeding smoothly, maintaining technological barriers, but high capital expenditure and AI demand fluctuations are the two major variables going forward.$BLUR is seeing large-scale offloading on-chain; I'm confident in this short position.
Brothers, most people are bullish, so let's go the other way and be bearish! On-chain data has already revealed the trump card.
According to Arkham's monitoring, this morning an anonymous address transferred a massive 98.57 million BLUR (about $4 million) directly to Coinbase Prime. This is a clear sign of big money offloading. Market maker Wintermute hasn't been idle either, having transferred about $2.6 million worth of BLUR to OKX, Binance, and Coinbase cumulatively. When market makers move coins to exchanges, it's never to support the price; it's to prepare for selling.
The harshest move came from the Korean exchange Upbit, which has added BLUR to its trading warning list and suspended deposit and withdrawal services. Experienced players know this process well; the next likely step is delisting. Once delisted, liquidity will instantly dry up, and escaping will be impossible.
On-chain data is more honest than candlestick charts. I opened a short at 0.0127 and will hold it, with a stop loss above 0.0132. The downside target is first 0.012, and if broken, then 0.011. The rest is up to time.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 earnings report looks impressive, with profits reaching a quarterly record high, but the gross margin is not as good as the previous quarter. The positive news was already priced in by the market, so once the report was released, funds quickly exited and the stock price closed down. Therefore, I think the future depends on whether AI chip orders can be maintained.Let's talk about today's "Top Predictor" incident. I'm not familiar with the person involved, so I'll discuss the matter without referring to the individual.
It's actually quite simple: some things "don't weigh four taels on an uncalibrated scale, but even a thousand pounds can't suppress them once on the scale." Prediction markets are a legal gray area in many countries, not just domestically. Moreover, most countries regard prediction markets as a variant of gambling or betting, and basically require corresponding licenses.
Sometimes playing privately won't get you into trouble, but if you run a community and recruit people to play, problems arise. People say prediction markets have strategies, but 99% of people can't guarantee consistent profits. When people make money, everyone is harmonious; but when they lose? After losing repeatedly and getting frustrated, they might really "blame" the person who brought them into it.
Article 303 of the Criminal Law concerns gambling:
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 1: Gambling Crime
Organizing gambling with multiple people or gambling as a profession for profit.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 2: Operating a Casino Crime
Operating a casino, controlling gambling platforms, acting as an agent to accept bets, or participating in related profit sharing.
Criminal Law Article 303, Paragraph 3: Organizing or Participating in Overseas Gambling Crime
Recruiting Chinese citizens to gamble at overseas casinos, reaching legally defined serious circumstances.
So playing by yourself is fine, but recruiting others to play requires careful consideration. Because my profile also mentions prediction markets, and many project parties have approached me for commission sharing, but I never engage in that. Some money is not worth making; safety comes first.1. AI computing power remains the main engine
High-performance computing platform revenue accounts for 68%, a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase, making it the core growth driver. AI demand has extended from GPUs/accelerators to AI agent CPUs and network chips, with customers still competing for capacity.
2. The proportion of advanced process nodes continues to rise
Advanced processes of 7nm and below account for 79% in total. Among them, 3nm accounts for 33%, 5nm for 28%, and 2nm for 8%. The 2nm share increased from 3% last quarter to 8%, indicating that customers are accelerating migration to more advanced nodes.
3. Order visibility extends to 2027
TSMC expects Q4 revenue of $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, with a midpoint of about $53.3 billion, significantly higher than the market expectation of $50.35 billion; the full-year USD revenue growth guidance was raised from "slightly above 40%" to about 44%.
Pressure points to note
Gross margin slightly declined quarter-on-quarter, dropping from 67.7% to 66.4%, mainly due to profit dilution from early 2nm mass production and cost pressures from overseas capacity expansion.
Capital expenditure is extremely high. Capital spending in 2026 is maintained at $60 billion to $64 billion, a record high; the market expects it may further rise to $75 billion to $90 billion in 2027. The intensity of capacity expansion is unprecedented and will suppress profit margins in the short term.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 1$NVDA $AAPL From a comparative perspective, NVIDIA’s current share buybacks primarily serve to offset the dilution caused by employee stock-based compensation, making it difficult to consistently thicken EPS through buybacks alone, unlike Apple.
If NVIDIA were to emulate Apple’s mature capital allocation strategy by consistently using its substantial, stable free cash flow for secondary market buybacks and subsequent share cancellations—thereby achieving genuine net share count shrinkage—its EPS would receive sustained additional accretion, assuming its AI computing foundation remains solid. This would significantly boost market confidence in its valuation and serve as a key incremental driver for valuation expansion, potentially paving the way for NVIDIA to challenge a $10 trillion market cap.
For young investors, Apple-style stocks should undoubtedly be the core holding in your primary portfolio position.$BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling; no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is seeing capital withdrawal:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is.#CoreWeave股债双跌，CEO回应融资担忧 $CRWV
The promissory note borrowed at 100 and repaid at 100 is now only worth 78.
▪️ On 10/14, the stock price dropped 15% to $65.78, the largest single-day drop since February
▪️ The unsecured bond maturing in 2032 with a coupon of 9.625% saw its yield rise to 14.8%
▪️ The secondary price of this bond fell below 78 cents on the dollar
▪️ Credit default swaps rose to a record high
▪️ The CEO called the market "irrational" in an internal memo, stating that the backlog of contracts is sufficient to cover the debt
▪️ During the same period, Oracle fell 9%, Nebius fell 11%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.4%
The disagreement is not about whether AI computing power demand is sufficient; the pricing on this chain first occurs in the bond market.
A 15% drop in stock measures valuation, while a drop to 78 cents in bonds measures credit — the same company, two markets giving two different assessments. Heavy assets, long payback periods, and rapid equipment depreciation combined mean it must continuously refinance. The bond maturity is longer than the customer contracts.
The direction is to wait and see — bond prices returning above 90 cents indicate credit repair; further decline would tighten the financing chain first.#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what else is there to consider at Thursday's earnings call?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced earlier, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call will not focus on revenue, but on the costs behind the revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, due to the 2nm ramp diluting about 3 to 4 percentage points. The market consensus is about 66.5%, so staying at the upper end of the range would be good news.
The second hurdle is capital expenditure. In July, it was already raised from $52 to $56 billion to $60 to $64 billion, so $64 billion is not a number waiting to be revised upward, but the current ceiling. Management previously said that capital expenditure would be "significantly higher" over the next three years; this time, it depends on how much they say.
Regarding the stock price, the ADR closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available closing price is $472.20 on 10/8.