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I just checked the long-short ratio of BTC perpetual contracts on OKX, which is 1.8 now, compared to about 1.25 a day ago.
The price dropped more than 3% in one day, but the number of long positions actually increased as the price fell. At first, I thought big players were accumulating at the bottom. But when I looked at the top 5% segment, the numbers didn’t add up: by headcount, the long-short ratio is 1.23, but by position size, it’s only 0.94. So more people are long, but the money is slightly more short.
Therefore, the main buyers catching the falling knife are small accounts; the big players haven’t shifted their positions more to the long side. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, then I was wrong.
Do you usually watch the ratio by number of people or by position size?
$BTC The $MON chain is a good public chain with excellent engineering capabilities, capable of running large-scale DAPPs without issues. However, it lacks distinctiveness and proprietary new technologies. It still mainly relies on the usual EVM+ optimized model. Given the current intense competition among public chains, with strong technical innovations like NEAR's Nightshade sharding, Sui's Move language object model, and AvAX's subchain architecture, $MON appears quite ordinary.Can Alpenglow make Solana's final confirmation 99% faster? Three things to verify on October 21
Solana is scheduled to activate Alpenglow on October 21, replacing the TowerBFT consensus mechanism. The official goal is to reduce the final confirmation time from about 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds.
But investors should not just look at this number; what really matters to observe are:
① Actual confirmation speed
150 milliseconds is currently still a technical target; after the upgrade, it remains to be seen if the mainnet can stably approach this expectation.
② Whether validator migration goes smoothly
Validators need to use clients based on Agave 4.3.0. For a major consensus mechanism switch, network stability is key.
③ How on-chain data is interpreted
Alpenglow moves validator voting out of regular transaction records, which may structurally reduce TPS and transaction counts, but this does not mean real user demand has decreased.
Additionally, on October 21, Votor will be introduced first; Rotor data propagation upgrades are still in subsequent phases.
My judgment is that Alpenglow has important technical significance, but the final effectiveness still needs to be proven by mainnet testing. If the upgrade is delayed, the network is unstable, or confirmation speed does not meet expectations, the market's original optimistic outlook will need to be reassessed.
Technical specifications are goals; mainnet validation is the proof.
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ $SOL $BTC fell 3.27% in 24 hours, dropping from 84,117.6 to 80,188 before rebounding to 80,908. During this period, the bulls suffered more losses: long liquidations amounted to $84.79 million, while shorts only liquidated $33.67 million. I am bearish. The funding rates for the last three periods were 0.0015%, -0.0018%, and -0.0041%, becoming increasingly negative, indicating that shorts are willing to pay to hold positions. This structure usually leads to further price declines. Options trading put/call ratio is 1.05, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.91, showing new positions leaning towards buying protection. DVOL at 38.8 is not high; if PPI turns hotter, volatility has room to expand. Contract open interest remains at $7.48 billion, leverage hasn't been fully cleaned out, and if macro pressure increases, longs will be liquidated again. The expectation is for the price to break below 80,188 first. Conditions for a bullish reversal: price must reclaim 84,117.6, and funding rates return to positive. If PPI cools down, the macro pressure eases, and the main factor will be leverage unwinding itself, which will have a much smaller impact.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC's third-quarter revenue hit a new high, and the market's focus has shifted to profitability: whether AI chip demand can continue to support high gross margins, and whether the cost pressures from expanding advanced process capacity will affect profit growth.
For investors, revenue growth is only the first signal. More importantly, whether profit growth can keep pace and management's outlook on AI demand and capital expenditure for the fourth quarter.
If profit margins remain resilient, it indicates that TSMC has not only secured AI orders but also retained strong pricing power; otherwise, even with record revenue, the market may reassess its valuation.
TSMC's financial report is actually an important window to observe the global AI industry chain's prosperity.
An important timing note: as of the screenshot's Beijing time 12:15, TSMC's full third-quarter financial report has not yet been released; the earnings briefing will be held today at 14:00. It has been confirmed that third-quarter revenue is about 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%; the market expects net profit may also set a record, but this remains a forecast.
Therefore, using "profitability performance to be revealed" in this post is accurate, and it is inappropriate to prematurely state "net profit has already hit a new high." $CRWV dropped more than 16% today and has plummeted over 50% in the past 5 months.
The reason is its debt. CoreWeave owes about $35 billion in debt and paid $640 million in interest just last quarter. Investors are now starting to sell off this debt. Its 2032 bonds have fallen more than 23% since June.
Bond trading prices are so depressed that they are considered distressed.
Due to the price drop, anyone buying these bonds now can earn over 15% annually. Therefore, 15% is now the cost CoreWeave must pay to borrow money.
This is a big problem because it plans to spend $35 billion to $39 billion this year but only has $5.5 billion in cash. It must keep borrowing to maintain construction.
Credit default swaps, which investors use to hedge default risk, now price CoreWeave’s probability of default within 5 years at 58%.#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 The US September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; month-on-month it increased by 0.6%. Core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Rising energy prices are the main driver, but core inflation remains sticky, indicating that inflationary pressure cannot be simply attributed to oil price fluctuations.
This data puts the Federal Reserve in a more difficult balancing act: employment growth has clearly cooled, yet inflation is rising again. Market concerns about further rate hikes are intensifying, the direction of pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields has also changed, and the valuation space for risk assets is being tested.
Tonight, the US September PPI will also be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Whether producer prices cool down simultaneously will help the market judge if cost pressures continue to transmit to the consumer side.
For BTC, the current worst-case scenario is rising inflation, increasing rate expectations, and cooling employment simultaneously. If PPI continues to exceed expectations, the market may further lower easing expectations; if producer-side pressure eases, there is a chance to mitigate the impact brought by CPI. The key tonight is not just the data level, but whether inflation is spreading. $BTC Core DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence $BTC
The options desk has already laid a protective cushion below 80000.
Deribit options data shows that for contracts expiring on October 16, put option open interest is concentrated in the 76000 to 80000 strike price range, with capital using options to hedge downside risk in advance. Currently, BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, DOGE OKX spot is 0.07967.
The fact is that the derivatives market is clearly increasing tail risk prevention before tomorrow's settlement. I judge that before the October 16 options settlement, if tonight's US retail sales data is strong, BTC is very likely to break down below 80000 to test the dense put option zone between 78000 and 79500, and the highly elastic DOGE will also simultaneously dip to 0.075. If BTC consistently holds above 80000 and rebounds to above 82200 before settlement, then the judgment of testing the dense put option zone does not hold.
$BTC
$DOGE
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC Q3: Revenue is no longer a question, the real focus is on three things
Q3 revenue is about 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year increase of about 50%. This figure has been gradually disclosed in monthly reports and has likely been reflected in the stock price. Today at the earnings briefing, I am watching three areas:
1️⃣ Q4 revenue guidance: After revenue surged due to AI orders, the market wants to know "can it continue?" If the guidance only meets expectations, there may be a profit-taking and stock price pullback; only a clear upward revision will provide new momentum for a rise.
2️⃣ Whether capital expenditure is increased: An increase in capital expenditure indicates TSMC is more optimistic about AI demand than the market, which is a positive signal for the entire AI chain (NVIDIA, equipment stocks).
3️⃣ Gross margin: High revenue growth does not mean the same profit. Overseas factory costs and exchange rates will pressure gross margin; watch if it can maintain a high level. The market expects Q3 net profit to be about 746.3 billion TWD; how much the actual figure deviates from this expectation will determine tonight's market sentiment.
My approach: The stock price has already pulled back more than 2% before the earnings report, indicating market divergence. I do not bet heavily on direction before the report; I start with a small position and will increase or cut losses after Q4 guidance is released.
Do you think the Q4 guidance can exceed expectations? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.#TSMCOct15Earnings The US expands production, is Texas the next destination? Arizona has invested $265 billion. Last week Elon Musk announced his company will build the Terafab AI chip industrial park, TSMC may rent part of the factory
Will the gross profit margin hold? The forecast for Q3 gross profit margin is 65%-67%, but overseas factory costs are over 30% higher than in Taiwan, depreciation pressure starts to show from the second half of the year, Citi and JPMorgan forecast a 2-3 percentage point dilutionCPI Data Review: $BTC /$ETH Short-term Trend Analysis
The comprehensive weakening of the US CPI data in September was the core trigger for this round of crypto market correction. The overall CPI month-on-month rose by +0.6%, meeting expectations, but the year-on-year figure at 3.7% exceeded the expected 3.6%; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both surpassing market expectations. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
After the data release, market expectations for rate hikes surged sharply, with the probability of a rate hike in October doubling to 44%-49%, and the probability before year-end exceeding 95%. US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, US stocks plunged, and the crypto market was passively pressured.
$BTC daily chart shows slight resistance to decline, falling from 83,430 to 81,784, losing the 20-day moving average and breaking below several medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating weakening technical patterns. The key support is at 81,603; holding this level maintains a wide oscillation between 80,300-84,000;
A breakdown would target 80,365 and 78,003. The funding side has slight support, with a net inflow of 175.7 million in spot ETFs on 10/13, recovering from the previous day's outflow, but the earlier large gap has not yet been filled. Intraday range is 80,800-83,000.
$ETH continues its weakness, with significantly higher leverage risk; perpetual open interest market value accounts for 15.3%, three times that of BTC, and long positions have not been fully cleared. The short-term critical level is 2,400; breaking below targets 2,330 and 2,250, while holding above 2,500 is necessary for recovery conditions.$BTC fell 2.09% last night, Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.02%, Dow Jones only fell 0.09%, a difference of twenty-two times. This gap is the market's answer after the September CPI release.
The September CPI was announced last night at 8:30 PM (Beijing time). It’s not about waiting anymore; it’s already priced in. Overall year-on-year is 3.7%, core year-on-year is 2.6%, both surpassing expectations and previous values, exceeding forecasts. The main drivers were energy month-on-month up 5.2% and gasoline month-on-month up 9.1%. This single oil price component contributed more than half of the increase.
Once the data came out, the market immediately repriced. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%. The dollar strengthened, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and U.S. stock futures turned negative. Money didn’t withdraw from the overall stock market but pulled out from the most rate-sensitive segment.
This is where crypto stands. $BTC’s drop last night was almost the same number as the Nasdaq’s. It is priced as a long-duration, high-valuation asset, so gold rose while $BTC fell. The notion of digital gold doesn’t hold up during this period.
Gold has a subtle point: at the moment CPI was released, it was hammered below 4100, but this morning it rebounded to 4,139.23, up 0.83%. Its safe-haven attribute outweighed the inflation negative impact, but $BTC didn’t get this treatment. On the same night, $ETH fell 3.33%, $SOL fell 2.74%, still high-beta assets.
Brothers, first see which type of asset your money is treated as, then watch the rise and fall 🍌#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电Q3营收冲到1.49万亿新台币，同比直接拉了50%。单看这组数据，确实很夸张，AI带来的芯片需求全砸在他一家身上。 但为什么现在市场都在等财报，不敢提前下结论？ 因为营收好只代表货卖出去了，不代表利润能稳住。台积电现在手里握着苹果和英伟达的订单，但全球扩张的成本也在肉眼可见地往上掉。美国建厂的人工和基建成本、日本欧洲的折旧，加上这几年不断上涨的电费，全在摊薄利润空间。 而且从细节来看，9月单月的营收环比其实已经有了放缓迹象。产能拉满之后，后面的增速还能维持多久，现在谁心里都没底。 把范围拉大来看，台积电更像是整个AI产业链的晴雨表。如果他的毛利率和下季度指引出现波动，后面跟着讲AI故事的一大批科技公司，估值压力会直接显现。 大家现在关注的已经不是过去这三个月卖了多少钱，而是成本扣掉之后，手里的净利润到底还能剩多少。ASML's €11.662B Q3 revenue and 57.5% gross margin show that leading-edge equipment demand is already translating into strong operating leverage. Interest in 2029-2030 purchases suggests customers are planning beyond the current AI cycle, though those discussions are not firm orders.
Exploring more 2028 capacity could support earnings durability, but execution and order conversion remain the test.
#ASMLQ3RevenueRecord 恐惧贪婪指数从57回到62，一周内先跌12点、再涨5点。但同一时间，美国现货ETF还在净流出。情绪回暖是反弹前兆，还是又一次抢跑？ 先说新闻。三组数字放在一起：情绪侧，恐惧贪婪指数从57回升到62（前值57）；资金侧，美国现货ETF最近5个交易日仍净流出约7.689亿美元，10日累计流出6.212亿，不过最新单日已收窄到6,860万；价格侧，BTC报83,353.6美元，24小时 -0.09%、近一周 -0.13%，基本走平。 再看资金影响。情绪指数由动量、波动率、社交热度与搜索趋势构成，它反映的是"关注度和短期动能"；而ETF净流入反映的是"钱有没有真的回来"。当情绪先回暖、资金仍未转正时，最常见的结构是抢跑型反弹：短线资金先动，配置型资金观望。这种结构的特点是反弹快、但容易在关键位被卖回来——因为推动上涨的资金体量不够。 对BTC的含义：这不是可靠的底部信号，但也不该忽略。情绪从57回到62说明极端悲观没有形成，市场仍有承接意愿；而单日流出收窄又说明抛压最重的一段可能过去了。两者合起来指向的结论是：更可能是区间震荡中的修复，而不是新一轮趋势上涨——除非资金通道转为连续净流入。 我接Big Brother Maji's position exposure! A tug of war between longs and shorts, with profits and losses polarizing
Latest position screenshot leaked, total position size 60,123,500, a set of long-short hedging combinations, with floating profits on one side and pressure on the other, bold trading ideas sparking extensive discussion.
✅ Complete breakdown of three positions
① BTC｜40X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -243.96 BTC, valued at 19,728,700
Opening price 84070.0, unrealized P&L +781,400, funding fee +65,500
Margin 493,200, liquidation price 105590.43
② ETH｜25X full position
Direction: Long
Quantity: 8222.28 ETH, valued at 19,374,200
Opening price 2507.67, unrealized P&L -1,244,700, funding fee -18,500
Margin 775,000, liquidation price 1598.4
③ HYPE｜5X full position
Direction: Short
Quantity: -268,300 HYPE, valued at 21,020,700
Opening price 66.2399, unrealized P&L -3,248,600, funding fee +1,043,600
Margin 4,204,100, liquidation price 99.04如果连ETH离爆仓只剩三十来刀，那么这波真正该盯的，其实不是Maji会不会被清算，而是钱更愿意待在谁身上。 你会跟着高杠杆抄底，还是先看资金偏好站哪边？ 刚看到这笔仓位时我愣了一下：25倍杠杆，13,650枚ETH，均价2545.84，清算价2481.40，现价大约2513，中间只剩32美元。像在钢丝上跳舞，但我不觉得这能直接当成恐慌信号，更不代表对方没有别的对冲安排。 我反而更在意另一件事：资金偏好正在怎么选。 数据快照： - ETH：25倍多单，13,650 ETH，开仓均价约2545.84，清算价约2481.40，现价约2513 - BTC：80,000是关键防线，站上并回到82,000到83,000区间，修复空间才打开 - 情绪：清算传闻很吸睛，但看不到对方完整资金安排，也看不到是否有对冲账户 先看动能信号。BTC若守住80,000并重新摸回82,000到83,000，ETH这笔仓位就有喘息窗口，主流资产的风险偏好会先回暖，ETH作为高beta品种通常比BTC弹得更快。这时候资金偏爱的是确定性更高的主流，山寨未必立刻跟上。 再看风险信号。80,000若被有效跌破，买方压力会明显#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 。
There is an item in the Q2 report that is easy to overlook: the disposal and fair value measurement of Vanguard International Semiconductor stock, which brought about a gain of approximately NT$63.2 billion. This is investment-related income, different from the money earned from continuous wafer production. It can reasonably be included in the quarterly report but should not be assumed to occur every quarter.
This afternoon's earnings release, I want to separate operating profit from non-operating items. If the core business continues to improve and investment income declines, net profit growth may not look as good; conversely, if net profit looks particularly strong, it is necessary to check whether there are new non-core contributions. Without clarifying this, using the quarter-on-quarter change in EPS to evaluate the strength of AI orders can easily lead to misinterpretation of the reasons.
The market has high expectations for TSMC, so it is even more important to clearly explain where each profit comes from. The chip manufacturing capability can justify long-term valuation, but a one-time gain from stock disposal should be understood according to its true nature.
There is no problem with this gain. The problem lies with those reading the reports if they treat it as recurring income every quarter.
I don't want to see everyone shouting only "beat expectations" or "missed expectations" again as soon as the earnings report comes out. Revenue has already hit a new high; the more useful question going forward is: excluding those items that may not repeat, how well is the core business really doing? If there was extra income last quarter, the comparison base needs adjustment; don't let one investment gain distort the entire industry picture One sentence for the crypto circle: Don't overweight AI-themed coins in advance betting on earnings reports. TSMC is a sentiment booster, not the main BTC storyline; the market still watches US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. On Thursday morning, will you be waiting for the announcement or waking up to see the results?
$BTC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 Up 54% in four weeks, leaving Bitcoin and Ethereum behind in the same period—what's driving Sui's surge? Three solid developments: Bitwise has brought its institution-focused RWA vault to Sui, targeting net returns over 10%; Samsung announced Galaxy devices now support USDC and integrate Sui capabilities; on-chain DeFi locked value grew 15.5% in four weeks, peaking at about $1.21 billion. But let's cool down the enthusiasm: locked value dropped 5.2% in the past week, and on-chain activity is cooling off; plus, circulating supply accounts for only 41% of total, with nearly 60% still locked up ahead. Current price is near $1, about 78% below the all-time high of $5.35. Support first looks at the $1 whole number level; if it can't hold above $1.15, the rebound can't be considered strong. Do you think this round for Sui is real institutional money or just another wave of sentiment? Share your judgment in the comments. The above is just data analysis and does not constitute investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC Bitcoin has tested 81,000 three times! The unstable chips are slowly being washed out!
This downward pressure mainly comes from disappointing inflation data; everyone is worried that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy, and the US stock market is also weakening, which is dragging down our market here.
Some analysts looking at on-chain data say that with each drop, the amount of forced selling is decreasing.
During the first drop, many who couldn't hold on fled immediately; during the second test of this level, fewer people were willing to sell; although some couldn't hold and stopped losses during the third time, overall selling pressure was still not as fierce as the first time.
This means those who are unstable and panic at slight dips are gradually exiting, and not everyone is panic selling.
But to be clear, not everyone has sold out yet; about 30% of short-term positions are still at a loss, so we are still some way from a complete washout like in history.
So don’t rush to assume this is the bottom.
Even if selling pressure is decreasing, once macro news comes out, the market can still continue to fluctuate and be volatile.
Those trading with leverage should not recklessly bet heavily at this level that it will definitely hold; risk control is still necessary. $ETH $ZEC
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ $MSTR should have started to drop on September 17, but it has been pumped for a month…CPI unexpectedly surged, and AI infrastructure stocks were crushed: South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5.6% in a single day, Nikkei fell 1.3%, S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, Nasdaq plummeted 1.9%, and the semiconductor index declined for the sixth consecutive day; CoreWeave, Nebius, Oracle—those building data centers by borrowing money—lost about $80 billion in market value in one day. The probability of a Fed rate hike on October 28 jumped overnight from 22.1% to 31.6%.
Harsh commentary: The era of borrowing to build data centers collided with rate hikes, and the computing power bubble is first leaking air from the debt market—no matter how good the story is, you have to kneel before interest. #Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ September CPI exceeded expectations, and the market is stuck around the 83k level, but a group of assets have developed independent trends against the headwind: L2 and modular chains.
The capital logic is not hard to understand — money withdrawn from meme coins and old DeFi is looking for things with real upgrades. Starknet just completed the v0.14.4 mainnet upgrade, with STRK rising over 110% in a week; Optimism passed a new proposal to use half of Superchain's revenue for buybacks, with OP rising nearly 20% in a single day; the data availability sector Celestia rose 24% in seven days.
A splash of cold water: about 127 million STRK tokens (over 3% of circulating supply) unlocked today, so the bigger the rise, the stronger the selling pressure; this round's sector breadth is also very narrow, with only 6 out of 26 categories rising, and rotation can stop abruptly. If you want to participate, use small positions, stagger your entries, and don't chase single-day surges.
Did you do any L2 this week? Share your thoughts in the comments. The above does not constitute investment advice. CPI announcement tonight: BTC's surge is just the beginning; whether ETH and SOL can follow is the real question
$BTC 83,356, $ETH 2,505, $SOL 107.41.
CPI data drops tonight, and the market still has differing views on the inflation trajectory. More important than the data itself is whether new funds are willing to step in after the release. As of October 12, the US spot BTC and ETH ETFs have seen net outflows of $65.4 million and $85.4 million respectively, indicating that sentiment recovery still needs validation.
Tonight, no directional guesses, just observations:
① Whether core CPI loosens expectations for rate cuts;
② After BTC reacts first, whether ETH and SOL show synchronized volume increase;
③ Whether the surge can hold steady instead of sharply falling back.
If only BTC rises alone while $ETH and SOL remain weak, I would view it as a risk-averse rally rather than a full return of risk appetite. A truly healthy rebound requires BTC to lead, ETH and SOL to follow, and the pullback not to break key support levels. Data determines the first jump; funds determine the endurance.
If CPI cools down, would you prefer to bet on BTC strengthening independently, or on ETH and SOL catching up? #美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
The recent non-farm employment data was below expectations, which seemed to act as a "stimulant" for the market, causing it to rise.
However, the CPI data did not fall short of or meet expectations; instead, it exceeded expectations and dealt a blow to the market. $ETH and $BTC both fell, with ETH breaking below the previous September low of 2300, 80000.
The rate hike expectations rose from 23% to over 30% before retreating somewhat, but the market still priced in rate hike expectations. After yesterday's sharp drop, the South Korean KOSPI index continued to fall and triggered a circuit breaker 🤔.
However, Federal Reserve officials stated that more data is needed and they are not in a hurry to raise rates in October, which indirectly reassures the market. Personally, I speculate there may be pressure from the White House as the midterm elections approach, but if the data worsens, the possibility of a Fed rate hike in October cannot be completely ruled out.
Regarding the previous plan to buy ETH at 2280, it has been canceled, but if subsequent data stabilizes, then the 2280-2300 range remains attractive. Otherwise, I personally believe a return to 2000 or even lower may just be a matter of time. Be cautious of risks! The battle to defend 80,000 is on again—Is this BTC dip a fakeout or a real retreat?
CPI poured cold water on the market; Bitcoin surged to 84,147 last night but couldn't hold, then was pushed down to 80,228. Now, on OKEx, it's hovering around 80,800, down about 1% in 24 hours. The 80,000 psychological level is back in the spotlight.
The market isn't entirely one-sided: BTC itself is down, but ETH and SOL have fallen even harder (about 2.6% and 2%, respectively). BTC's market dominance has actually risen to 59.4%, and ETFs saw a slight net inflow of $2.2 million yesterday. Funds don't seem to be fleeing crypto but rather consolidating within the sector toward the leaders, clutching the top dog amid panic.
My take: The sudden jump to a 47% chance of a rate hike in October is the main trigger here. Technically, the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, RSI is around 38—not oversold yet—and moving averages are all bearish. Sentiment is weak but not a crash volume; it looks more like a high-beta asset paying back rate expectations.
Watch two signals: whether 80,000 and the 24h low of 80,228 hold. For a rebound, first resistance is at 81,000. If tech stocks continue to fall when US markets open tonight, BTC will struggle to stand alone. DYOR, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #美CFTC启动首轮加密市场规则制定 ⚠️Multiple Bitcoin mining companies' stock prices collectively plunged, dropping over 12%. Inflation data being hotter than expected hit AI infrastructure stocks, and $BTC also weakened, with the market stuck in the $80,478-$81,033 range. RSI33 is bearish, the rebound strength is weak, and the resistance around $82,883-$84,461 is also tough. Bulls won't easily turn the tide. More importantly, the 24-hour open interest rose by 2.8%, but the price fell by 3.44%, indicating shorts are adding positions rather than bulls taking profits. Short-term sentiment is weak, with risk skewed downward. My position is conservative; let's see if $80,478 can hold. If shorting, set stop loss at a break above $81,033 and take profit at $79,684. Will this sharp drop in mining companies continue to drag down $BTC sentiment? #HOODQ3TradingGrowth To my future great trader self:
From the market environment perspective, the US September CPI announced on October 14 rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also above the expected 2.5%.
The issue with BTC is that macro news can change market pricing in a short time. Even if the medium to long term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive, it does not mean that short-term long positions can withstand all pullbacks.
Key points from the review:
The long-term logic of BTC and short-term trading results are two different things. Getting the direction right does not mean the entry timing is necessarily correct; being optimistic long-term is not a reason to ignore stop-losses.
After CPI exceeded expectations, the market's repricing of interest rate paths not only affects BTC but may also transmit to other crypto assets through overall risk appetite.
When the market environment changes, have you timely reassessed your position risks?
Do not underestimate the volatility risk of a coin just because you are familiar with it; do not simply interpret short-term declines as inevitable rebounds. When opening a position, you should clearly define the maximum loss you can bear, rather than only considering exit after losses have expanded.
The most cautionary aspect of the ETH trade is that risk was not effectively controlled before the outcome appeared.
You can be wrong in trading, but risk cannot be left entirely to the market to decide.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
TSMC's Q3 revenue hit a record high with a 50% year-over-year increase, but the market did not rally. The core focus is not on the realized revenue but on profitability and future guidance.
The company provided a Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67%, down from 67.7% in Q2, with capital expenditures from capacity expansion being the main pressure. The strong revenue growth is driven by AI foundry orders, but expansion costs will erode profits.
The current 2% stock price drop reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, as the revenue upside has already been priced in. The real highlights of the earnings report are: first, whether the actual gross margin is near the upper or lower end of the range; second, the Q4 revenue guidance to verify if AI demand can continue; third, whether capital expenditures will be further increased.
If the gross margin approaches 67%, Q4 guidance is strong, and spending is controlled, the stock price is likely to recover; conversely, if it nears the 65% lower bound, guidance is weak, and spending surges, pressure will continue. The earnings report can also indirectly confirm the AI industry chain's health. ARB (Arbitrum) 3-Year Price Scenario Forecast (Overseas Institutions Multi-Scenario Model, USD) Baseline assumptions: Ethereum ecosystem recovery, controllable token unlocking pressure, Layer2 business growth; divided into three tiers: [Pessimistic / Baseline / Optimistic] 1. End of 2027 - Pessimistic: $0.15–0.30 (large unlocking pressure, crypto market bear) - Baseline: $0.40–0.80 (steady growth in L2 transaction volume) - Optimistic: $1.20–1.80 (RWA assets on-chain, institutional capital inflow) 2. End of 2028 - Pessimistic: $0.25–0.50 - Baseline: $0.70–1.40 - Optimistic: $2.50–3.80 (fee switch implementation, protocol captures fees) 3. End of 2029 - Pessimistic: $0.30–0.65 - Baseline: $1.00–2.00 - Optimistic: $4.00–6.50 (decentralized sequencer launch, large-scale ecosystem expansion) Supplement: Standard Chartered Bank's extremely optimistic long-term forecast: ARB could reach $6.5 by 2029, but this is a very aggressive assumption, and the vast majority of institutions do not agree with this high target; for reference only. OP (Optimism) 3-Year Price Scenario Forecast (USD) OP is also an Ethereum L2, with an ecosystem slightly smaller than ARB, token unlocking cycle pressure also exists, overall elasticity weaker than ARB: $SNDK SNDK has already dropped to $1353, and this decline probably isn't over yet!!!
It fell all the way from around 1484 to the current 1353, which is quite a significant drop, so at this point, I actually don't want to keep shorting. But there's a question: NAND prices are still rising, enterprise SSD demand remains strong, and SNDK's previous performance and guidance weren't bad, so why can't the stock even hold 1400?
I think the biggest problem now isn't that the industry isn't growing, but that the market has already priced in this growth in advance. The positive factors remain, but the price keeps going down, indicating that capital is no longer willing to pay for the previously high valuations. Every rebound now may encounter profit-taking selling pressure again.
Next, I'm most focused on TSMC's earnings report and the US PPI. If on Thursday the news triggers a semiconductor rebound and SNDK returns to around 1395–1415, I wouldn't be surprised at all. But if the news is good and capital still can't catch it, this rebound will likely become another selling point.
Personally, I remain bearish through Friday, leaning towards the 1280–1340 range, and if weaker, it might even test 1220–1270. However, 1353 is already close to the target range, so I won't blindly short just to be bearish.
Only if PPI clearly eases, TSMC leads semiconductors to regain sustained buying, and SanDisk firmly holds above 1484 instead of rallying then falling back again, will I change my current view. #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Netflix growth is slowing down, is it still a good time to buy ads? $NFLX
Netflix is about to release its earnings report, with revenue forecasted at about $12.86 billion, growth slowing to 12%, but profit margin rising to 33.2
Although subscription user growth has peaked, this is actually the highlight of Netflix's business transformation. Its advertising logic is completely different from its competitors
Others monetize by subsidizing operations with low-priced ad-supported versions, while Netflix relies on strong content stickiness to push users to buy the ad-supported version, then simultaneously raise the price of the ad-free version. It not only retains its core customer base but also earns high-margin advertising revenue
No longer competing on user numbers, it all depends on per-user contribution ARM and advertising monetization efficiency. With sports live streaming and offline business implementation, the second curve will continue to lift profit margins
The short-term slowdown is just a gear shift; the long-term monetization moat is actually deepening
DYOR #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficientCPI飙到3.7%，比特币多头最怕的事，还是发生了！ 比特币跌破8.2万美元，真正让多头难受的，不是这根阴线，而是市场突然发现：降息的故事，可能没那么好讲了。 10月14日，美国9月CPI出炉，通胀年率升至3.7%，核心CPI也从2.4%升至2.6%。 消息一出，市场立刻变脸：美债收益率跳升，美元走强，黄金白银下跌，美股科技股遭到抛售。 10月15日，比特币跟着承压，24小时跌幅约2%，价格来到81,480美元附近。 你以为只是一次普通回调？ 真正值得警惕的是，这次下跌背后，可能藏着一条更麻烦的逻辑链：油价上涨推高通胀，通胀压缩降息空间，利率预期抬升又给风险资产施压。 而比特币，恰恰很难完全躲开这场风暴。 最危险的不是通胀，而是市场预期突然反转 这轮通胀反弹，一个重要推手就是中东局势。 战争推高能源价格，汽油、柴油成本上涨，最终传导到美国居民的生活成本。油价不是一个孤立数字，它会影响运输、生产和消费，进而让通胀变得更难控制。 问题来了。 如果通胀持续回升，美联储凭什么急着降息？ 市场原本期待的是资金成本下降、流动性改善，更多资金重新流向股票、比特币等风险资产。 但现在，剧本开始变了。 On October 14, the US September CPI annual rate rose to 3.7%, and the core CPI annual rate also rebounded from 2.4% to 2.6%.
As soon as the data came out, the market immediately changed: US Treasury yields jumped, the dollar strengthened, gold and silver came under pressure, and the Nasdaq 100 index fell 2%.
Bitcoin was not spared either.
On October 15, BTC fell to around $81,500, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%.
Many might wonder: with the war in Iran pushing oil prices up, what does that have to do with Bitcoin?
The connection lies in the fact that this war could change market expectations for interest rates.
And interest rates are the key variable to watch in this market cycle.
The war burns oil, but its impact transmits through the entire economy.
Let's simplify this.
Tensions in the Middle East threaten energy supply, causing oil prices to rise.
Gasoline and diesel become more expensive, transportation costs increase; with higher transport costs, production and distribution costs for goods also rise. Companies either absorb the profit hit or pass the costs onto consumers.
What’s the final result?
You might think the war is far from your wallet, but it could circle back and show up in your daily bills.
The rise in US inflation in September is making the market worry again: will rising energy prices cause already stubborn inflation to rise once more?
This is the crux of the issue.
If inflation continues to cool, the Federal Reserve has more room to ease monetary policy; but if oil prices keep rising and inflation remains stubborn, expectations for rate cuts may be delayed or even bets on rate hikes may reemerge.
Markets never trade just today’s data, but tomorrow’s policy.
What really troubles risk assets are the dollar and interest rates.
Why do stocks and crypto often fall together when CPI rises?
Because capital is calculating.
When the market expects higher and longer-lasting interest rates, the appeal of assets like US Treasuries may increase. At the same time, borrowing costs and the opportunity cost of holding risk assets also rise.
For tech stocks that rely on future growth for valuation, this is bad news.
The same applies to Bitcoin.
Around October 15, the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 2%, the dollar rose to near its highest level since May 2025, and Bitcoin retreated to around $81,500.
Looking at these events together is more meaningful than focusing on a single bearish candle on BTC.
The spark is in the Middle East, the pressure transmits to Wall Street, and finally even the crypto market can’t escape.
Don’t forget, although BTC has the narrative of "digital gold," in times of market stress and capital contraction, it is often traded as a high-volatility risk asset.
Narrative is one thing; how capital votes is another.
BTC may not be losing to the war, but to interest rates.
Many buy Bitcoin believing it can hedge against fiat currency depreciation.
This logic is not without merit.
But the problem is, long-term logic does not equal short-term price action.
If the war continues to push up energy costs, inflation doesn’t come down, and the Fed’s easing space is limited, the market may first price in higher rates, a stronger dollar, and lower risk appetite.
At that time, even those who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value may be reluctant to add positions in the short term.
More realistically, once the market enters risk-off mode, investors may prioritize selling liquid, easily convertible assets to reduce overall risk exposure.
So, don’t interpret "digital gold" as something that must rise in every crisis.
Long-term scarcity matters, but short-term liquidity rules. When the market is short on cash, faith must first pass the price test.
$BTC $CL $BZ #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight
Netflix $xNFLX can still grow, but the pace has indeed slowed down. Viewing time in the first half of the year increased by only 2% year-over-year, and the Q3 revenue guidance was previously below market expectations.
The advertising side is quite bright, with the ad-supported version currently covering over 250 million global monthly active viewers.
For the October 20 earnings report, I am mainly looking at three things: advertising revenue, viewing time, and Q4 guidance.
User growth is getting harder and harder, so whether advertising can take over the next baton is quite critical. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Netflix still has a solid foundation for revenue and earnings growth, but the current risk is that market expectations may be higher than what its actual results can deliver.
For Q3, it is important to distinguish between beating EPS estimates and delivering results strong enough to drive the stock price higher.
For Q4, advertising growth, profit margins, and business outlook will matter more than revenue growth alone.
$NFLX This round of pullback for $BTC might test around 80,000, while $ETH is very likely to test down near 2,200. Currently, the whole market is on standby; bottom-fishing is not urgent.
Why do I think the decline hasn't stopped yet? Simply breaking it down into 3 dimensions:
1. Macro selling pressure and CPI rebound (Macro / Rates): The recently released CPI data rose year-over-year (3.7%), showing inflation stickiness is more stubborn than expected. The Fed just resumed rate hikes.
2. Market microstructure: From the order book and liquidation heatmap, although a batch of high-leverage longs was washed out this morning, the CEX depth (bid side) has shrunk severely, and buying interest is extremely weak. After breaking below 84k and 2600, the original strong support has directly turned into strong resistance.
3. Chip and ETH/BTC rate structure: The ETH/BTC rate continues to seek a bottom, with on-chain staking and DeFi liquidation lines still concentrated below (especially in the 2200–2300 range). When sentiment is extremely fragile, liquidity often "seeks liquidation" downward, and only after completely blowing through the liquidation line can a true clearing be considered.
Save your bullets for confirmation signals; it's not too late to act after testing the 80k / 2200 area or after the market forms a clear double bottom structure.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹 The South Korean and Japanese stock markets both weakened today, with the Korean KOSPI plunging and triggering a circuit breaker, and the Nikkei falling in tandem, indicating a decline in risk appetite.
Impact: South Korea is an important retail capital pool for crypto; when the stock market crashes, some funds will flow into the crypto market, but the current global macro environment is bearish, so the incremental inflow is limited. South Korea has recently cracked down on overseas exchanges, suppressing altcoins (such as ZEC). Japan's regulation is relatively friendly, but short-term benefits are limited. The main trend in the crypto market still follows the US dollar and US stocks, with South Korea and Japan having a secondary impact.The sky is falling, shorting low leverage is forever the god
📊 Inflation: It’s indeed heating up
September CPI year-on-year +3.7%, exceeding expectations. The Beige Book shows that high oil prices are spreading across the US, and businesses generally expect prices to keep rising. Even Goolsbee admits: September inflation is disappointing.
🏛 Rate hike expectations: Hawkish words, honest actions
Daly said "rate hikes may be necessary, but not imminent," directly ruling out action in October. But top forecaster Schenker said: a 50 basis point hike in December is possible.
💵 Market reaction: Bad data, no price drop
Interestingly—the US Treasury yields surged then fell back, the October rate hike bet dropped to 33%, and the dollar index gave back all gains after the CPI release (currently at 102.16).
🚀 Regulation: SEC opened a new door
Approved Cboe to launch binary options based on KPIs of listed companies (Coinbase, Robinhood), bringing new derivatives gameplay to the crypto stock market.
📌 My judgment:
Bad data but no market drop is itself a signal—it means the market has fully priced in rate hikes, bad news can’t shake it, which often means selling pressure is exhausted.
But don’t rush to be optimistic. The real variable is tomorrow: Fed Chair Walsh’s speech, the next policy direction window. Whether there will be a 50 basis point hike in December, market expectations will keep fluctuating.
Short-term strategy: Don’t heavily bet on direction before the news lands, wait until Walsh finishes speaking to act.
What do you think is the probability of a 50 basis point hike in December? Comprehensive Analysis of Three Major Issues
1. Can Quantum Computers + AI Intelligent Mathematics Truly Cause Devastating Damage to Bitcoin?
1. Quantum Computers: A Long-Term Real Risk, but No Destructive Power at Present
Bitcoin's SHA256 hash (ledger, mining) is quantum-resistant; the risk is concentrated on ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Shor's algorithm can derive private keys from public keys, and about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have their public keys exposed on-chain, making them high-risk assets.
- Current Status: Fault-tolerant quantum computers do not yet exist. The academic consensus estimates that devices capable of breaking secp256k1 will not appear before 2030–2035, which is a long way off and not an immediate threat.
- Important Distinction: Quantum computers can only steal coins whose public keys have been exposed; they cannot directly delete the Bitcoin ledger or destroy the entire Bitcoin network.
- Countermeasures: The Bitcoin community is already researching post-quantum upgrade proposals (BIPs); users can proactively migrate coins to new addresses with unexposed public keys to mitigate risks.
2. AI (Large Model Mathematical Capability): Currently Unable to Break ECDSA, This Is a Frontier Hypothesis, Not a Real Threat
AI excels at pattern recognition and symbolic computation, but there is currently no public mathematical proof or experimental evidence that AI can find a shortcut to solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem quickly.
- Recent Academic Discussion: Ethereum researcher Justin Drake proposed a hypothesis that AI might discover mathematical shortcuts to break ECDSA before the advent of quantum computers. This is only a risk warning hypothesis, not an actual attack, and many cryptography experts remain skeptical.
- What AI Can Do: Assist in cryptanalysis, find code vulnerabilities, brute-force user wallet passwords; it cannot directly break Bitcoin's underlying elliptic curve cryptography.
✅ Conclusion:
Quantum computing is a long-term real cryptographic risk; AI mathematical breakthroughs are theoretical conjectures. Their combined effect may bring significant security pressure in the future, but within the next decade or so, they will not immediately destroy the Bitcoin network or cause it to go to zero. The risk is partial asset theft, not an instantaneous system collapse.
2. Does "Grandpa Gu"'s Claim That Bitcoin Will Go to Zero Have Scientific Basis?
Note: "Grandpa Gu" is a short video science popularizer, not an internationally recognized top cryptography authority. Some of his views have cryptographic theoretical support, but the ultimate "go to zero" conclusion is a subjective extrapolation, not a consensus in academia.
✅ Scientifically Supported Parts of His View
1. Bitcoin's ECDSA signatures can be broken by future fault-tolerant quantum computers; about 30% of BTC public keys are exposed on-chain, posing theft risk.
2. Bitcoin governance is extremely difficult; after a network-wide switch to quantum signatures, consensus among miners, nodes, exchanges, and large holders is required. Hard fork upgrades face huge resistance and may fail.
3. Bitcoin has no cash flow or physical asset backing; its value relies entirely on global market consensus. Once a security crisis erupts, panic selling could cause a massive crash.
❌ Parts Lacking Scientific Support and Are Subjective Inferences
1. The "directly go to zero" conclusion is extreme: even if some exposed addresses' bitcoins are stolen, the Bitcoin network itself can still operate normally. As long as many nodes, miners, and holders continue using it, the network's value will not be zero. The academic mainstream view is a deep crash is most likely, not an immediate zero.
2. Underestimates migration solutions: users can proactively transfer assets to addresses with unexposed public keys to avoid quantum risks without waiting for a network-wide hard fork.
3. Ignores consensus resilience: Bitcoin has endured multiple crises and regulatory pressures over more than a decade, with strong global distributed node and institutional holding consensus; confidence is unlikely to vanish instantly.
In summary: The quantum security risk he raises is a real academic issue; however, directly extrapolating this risk to BTC going to zero is a pessimistic personal forecast, not a cryptographic consensus.
3. Can STRK's Quantum-Resistant L1 Solution Succeed?
✅ Core Technical Advantages (Verified by StarkWare's Official Paper)
1. The STARK proof system relies only on hash functions at its core; hash algorithms are quantum-resistant (Grover's algorithm only provides quadratic speedup, which can be offset by increasing hash length). This is a native advantage, different from BTC and ETH's elliptic curve systems.
2. Starknet's native account abstraction: no need for a network-wide hard fork; individual accounts can independently upgrade to post-quantum signatures (NIST standard Falcon), with unchanged account addresses and no large-scale asset migration. BTC's biggest challenge in upgrading to post-quantum signatures is network-wide hard fork governance, which STRK naturally avoids.
3. Roadmap: Transition from Ethereum L2 to independent L1, aiming to detach from Ethereum's base layer; simultaneously developing QSB quantum-secure Bitcoin solutions to provide quantum-secure custody for BTC assets.
⚠️ Significant Uncertainties Exist; 100% Success Cannot Be Claimed
1. STRK is currently still an Ethereum L2: independent L1 is a mid-to-long-term plan and not yet realized. Before transition completion, its bridging and data availability layers still depend on Ethereum, inheriting Ethereum's cryptographic risks.
2. Ecosystem implementation challenges: independent L1 requires not only technical code but also attracting nodes, developers, funds, and ecosystem application migration; technical feasibility does not equal ecosystem success.
3. Project governance, funding, and market narrative risks: ongoing token unlocks and market sentiment fluctuations will affect ecosystem progress speed.Comprehensive Analysis of Three Major Issues
1. Can Quantum Computers + AI Intelligent Mathematics Truly Cause Devastating Damage to Bitcoin?
1. Quantum Computers: A Long-Term Real Risk, but No Destructive Power at Present
Bitcoin's SHA256 hash (ledger, mining) is quantum-resistant; the risk is concentrated on ECDSA elliptic curve signatures. Shor's algorithm can derive private keys from public keys, and about 30% of Bitcoin addresses have their public keys exposed on-chain, making them high-risk assets.
- Current Status: Fault-tolerant quantum computers do not yet exist. The academic consensus estimates that devices capable of breaking secp256k1 will not appear before 2030–2035, which is a long way off and not an immediate threat.
- Important Distinction: Quantum computers can only steal coins whose public keys have been exposed; they cannot directly delete the Bitcoin ledger or destroy the entire Bitcoin network.
- Countermeasures: The Bitcoin community is already researching post-quantum upgrade proposals (BIPs); users can proactively migrate coins to new addresses with unexposed public keys to mitigate risks.
2. AI (Large Model Mathematical Capability): Currently Unable to Break ECDSA, This Is a Frontier Hypothesis, Not a Real Threat
AI excels at pattern recognition and symbolic computation, but there is currently no public mathematical proof or experimental evidence that AI can find a shortcut to solve the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem quickly.
- Recent Academic Discussion: Ethereum researcher Justin Drake proposed a hypothesis that AI might discover mathematical shortcuts to break ECDSA before the advent of quantum computers. This is only a risk warning hypothesis, not an actual attack, and many cryptography experts remain skeptical.
- What AI Can Do: Assist in cryptanalysis, find code vulnerabilities, brute-force user wallet passwords; it cannot directly break Bitcoin's underlying elliptic curve cryptography.
✅ Conclusion:
Quantum computing is a long-term real cryptographic risk; AI mathematical breakthroughs are theoretical conjectures. Their combined effect may bring significant security pressure in the future, but within the next decade or so, they will not immediately destroy the Bitcoin network or cause it to go to zero. The risk is partial asset theft, not an instantaneous system collapse.
2. Does "Grandpa Gu"'s Claim That Bitcoin Will Go to Zero Have Scientific Basis?
Note: "Grandpa Gu" is a short video science popularizer, not an internationally recognized top cryptography authority. Some of his views have cryptographic theoretical support, but the ultimate "go to zero" conclusion is a subjective extrapolation, not a consensus in academia.
✅ Scientifically Supported Parts of His View
1. Bitcoin's ECDSA signatures can be broken by future fault-tolerant quantum computers; about 30% of BTC public keys are exposed on-chain, posing theft risk.
2. Bitcoin governance is extremely difficult; after a network-wide switch to quantum signatures, consensus among miners, nodes, exchanges, and large holders is required. Hard fork upgrades face huge resistance and may fail.
3. Bitcoin has no cash flow or physical asset backing; its value relies entirely on global market consensus. Once a security crisis erupts, panic selling could cause a massive crash.
❌ Parts Lacking Scientific Support and Are Subjective Inferences
1. The "directly go to zero" conclusion is extreme: even if some exposed addresses' bitcoins are stolen, the Bitcoin network itself can still operate normally. As long as many nodes, miners, and holders continue using it, the network's value will not be zero. The academic mainstream view is a deep crash is most likely, not an immediate zero.
2. Underestimates migration solutions: users can proactively transfer assets to addresses with unexposed public keys to avoid quantum risks without waiting for a network-wide hard fork.
3. Ignores consensus resilience: Bitcoin has endured multiple crises and regulatory pressures over more than a decade, with strong global distributed node and institutional holding consensus; confidence is unlikely to vanish instantly.
In summary: The quantum security risk he raises is a real academic issue; however, directly extrapolating this risk to BTC going to zero is a pessimistic personal forecast, not a cryptographic consensus.
3. Can STRK's Quantum-Resistant L1 Solution Succeed?
✅ Core Technical Advantages (Verified by StarkWare's Official Paper)
1. The STARK proof system relies only on hash functions at its core; hash algorithms are quantum-resistant (Grover's algorithm only provides quadratic speedup, which can be offset by increasing hash length). This is a native advantage, different from BTC and ETH's elliptic curve systems.
2. Starknet's native account abstraction: no need for a network-wide hard fork; individual accounts can independently upgrade to post-quantum signatures (NIST standard Falcon), with unchanged account addresses and no large-scale asset migration. BTC's biggest challenge in upgrading to post-quantum signatures is network-wide hard fork governance, which STRK naturally avoids.
3. Roadmap: Transition from Ethereum L2 to independent L1, aiming to detach from Ethereum's base layer; simultaneously developing QSB quantum-secure Bitcoin solutions to provide quantum-secure custody for BTC assets.
⚠️ Significant Uncertainties Exist; 100% Success Cannot Be Claimed
1. STRK is currently still an Ethereum L2: independent L1 is a mid-to-long-term plan and not yet realized. Before transition completion, its bridging and data availability layers still depend on Ethereum, inheriting Ethereum's cryptographic risks.
2. Ecosystem implementation challenges: independent L1 requires not only technical code but also attracting nodes, developers, funds, and ecosystem application migration; technical feasibility does not equal ecosystem success.
3. Project governance, funding, and market narrative risks: ongoing token unlocks and market sentiment fluctuations will affect ecosystem progress speed.BTC $81,164 (24h -3.01%), ETH -5.74%, OP -16% leading the decline. This morning continued breaking below 82k, a deep issue not of a single day:
① Rate hike rekindled: October rate hike probability 20%→50%+, 10Y holding at 5.2%
② USD strengthened to the highest since May 2025, liquidity tightening
③ Tech/semiconductor crash (Nasdaq -2%, Coreweave -15%) spillover risk kills
④ Leveraged long liquidation: 24h liquidations $935 million, longs account for $860 million
⑤ ETF buying momentum fades, rebound weak
Counterintuitive: 84% bullish analysts yet price falls = macro real money retreat, not emotional oversell. Support $81.3k → main structure $80k; trigger at yearly moving average $78,423 / recovery at $85,000. Tonight 20:30 (+8) four data releases coincide, no move before data.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Macro
Market has risks, content is for information sharing only, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Brothers, I'm going in first, the bulls will definitely win
Many people ask, why did the financial market drop when the CPI data on October 14 exceeded expectations?
A simple breakdown of the underlying logic:
The September CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, and even the core CPI exceeded expectations.
The market's first reaction: inflation is very resilient, the Fed can't ease quickly, the probability of a rate hike in October rises directly, and US Treasury yields increase.
With higher US Treasury yields, the attractiveness of risk-free assets increases, so funds will withdraw from risk assets like BTC and US stocks, causing sell-offs.
The crypto market also experienced a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, further amplifying the decline.
Many mistakenly think high inflation is good for crypto, but this is a misconception. The moment the data is released, the market prioritizes trading on the Fed's tightening expectations.
Even if the FOMC ultimately decides not to raise rates at the end of the month, the strength of inflation will keep the Fed hawkish, pushing pressure to December and next year.
Next, keep an eye on PPI and the FOMC meeting; the macro uncertainty is not yet resolved.After ZEC's volume surged and then fell back to 1081, it stabilized. Has the "ETF honeymoon period" ended?
This round of decline has three independent pressure lines; it can't be blamed solely on the overall market:
1. Macro shifts hit high-beta coins. The US September CPI year-over-year was 3.7% (expected 3.6%), causing the market to sharply price in Fed rate hikes. Funds prioritized withdrawing from high-volatility altcoins, with ZEC underperforming the market by about 7 percentage points over 24 hours.
2. Grayscale ZCSH continues to bleed. This first US Zcash spot ETF has had net redemptions for seven consecutive trading days, with over $124 million outflow in two weeks. Its assets under management dropped from a peak of about $979 million to $751 million. More critically, it holds about 3.27% of ZEC's circulating supply—ETF redemptions require selling coins to pay out, directly putting selling pressure on the spot market. Additionally, the fund's management fee is as high as 2.5%, while Winklevoss has submitted a competing product, WINK, with only a 0.25% fee, motivating capital to shift.
3. Divergence in bullish and bearish signals. Whale long positions increased by about 24%, with a long-short ratio of about 3.88 times, but top traders showed net selling ($907K sell orders vs. $329K buy orders). Retail investors are bottom-fishing while large funds are distributing—this combination often means continued volatility in the short term.
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 $ZEC #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ Google Cloud's quarterly revenue surged 82% year-over-year, driven primarily by enterprise AI computing power, the Gemini enterprise edition, and self-developed TPU chip orders. The backlog of orders has reached $514 billion, indicating ongoing revenue recognition potential. The cloud business operating margin also rose to 35.6%, proving that AI investments have begun to yield profits.
However, it is important to distinguish: revenue and gross profit recovery do not equal overall breakeven. To meet AI demand, Google continues to increase capital expenditures, with substantial funds continuously invested in data centers, TPU chips, and large model training, which squeezes free cash flow in the short term. This is also the market's focal point: AI is a heavy-asset arms race, and while orders are booming, capital investment is also ramping up, resulting in a longer return cycle.
This news is somewhat positive for the Nasdaq AI sector, validating real demand for enterprise computing power, which will boost risk appetite for tech growth stocks and indirectly provide sentiment support for BTC, ETH. However, similar to Microsoft's self-developed chip logic, after the positive effects are realized, a pullback is likely; if capital expenditures continue to rise and cash flow declines, the market will reprice investment costs and suppress tech valuations.
Key follow-up points: the extent of capital expenditure increases, whether cloud business profit margins can be maintained, and the growth rate of Gemini API calls. If profit margins continue to rise, it indicates a successful commercial cycle for AI investments; if expenditure growth consistently outpaces revenue growth, skepticism about AI returns will intensify again $BTC $ETH $SNDK When watching $BTC this morning, don't just focus on that green bar; look up at the Asian stock markets: the Nikkei once dropped nearly 5%, the Korean won led the decline, and the entire Asian session was risk-off. Crypto has never been an island. When the world's smartest money collectively shrinks risk exposure in the same period, the liquidity in the crypto space is often the first to be pulled out. The hot CPI is just the trigger; the real issue is that everyone is starting to doubt whether this round of AI and risk asset valuations can really hold up. On days like this, cash and patience themselves are a position, and often the highest returning one.