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The crypto market falls into a "playing dead" mode: tacit ceasefire between bulls and bears before options expiry, ETFs continuously absorbing funds to support the bottom In May, the crypto market is staging a strange "silent drama." No sharp rises or falls, no one-sided trends, not even obvious panic or greed—the bulls and bears seem to have reached an unspoken agreement before options expiry: whoever makes the first move is the loser. Sideways trading is the only theme today. Bitcoin has only slightly risen 0.4% in the past 24 hours, with its price fluctuating repeatedly between $84,000 and $85,000, like a foot stuck in the elevator door—neither moving forward nor backward. Ethereum is slightly more active, with a 0.6% gain behind a narrow oscillation between $2,650 and $2,700, showing slightly larger volatility but still failing to form an effective breakout. As for OKB, the 0.8% increase looks more like a "follower," with clear resistance at $125 above and short-term support at $115 below, drifting along with the flow. Capital flow: ETFs are supporting the bottom, but no one is willing to charge forward. An unignorable signal is that the Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, cumulatively absorbing over $2.8 billion. This undoubtedly provides solid bottom support for the market. However, geopolitical disturbances combined with the approaching options expiry date make capital especially cautious. Institutions are buying, but retail and speculative funds dare not chase; bulls dare not push up, bears are unwilling to crash. Thus, the market falls into a "stalemate balance." Big moves? Don't dream about it for now. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Keep sitting tight, everyone. Sitting tight doesn't mean sitting there dumbly doing nothing. For example, yesterday morning when I was writing a short article, AVAX had only made a few hundred dollars. Not long after I finished writing, hackers started dumping on the chain. Before the dump, I had already warned the group: catch it on-chain. I myself took a short position on the contract + caught the goods on-chain. The on-chain depth was too poor, so the dump created a big price gap. The hackers only used $9 million to push down AVAX, which has a market cap of over $4 billion, by 0.5U, about 3%. Why don't other coins have this opportunity? First, their depth is better; second, there are too many bots. Hackers aren't fools either—they won't just dump everything at market price all at once; they do it slowly, so the drop is limited. AVAX has fewer people and poor depth, which created this window. Sometimes sitting tight for a day or even several days is just waiting for such an opportunity; sometimes there might be no chance at all. But if you persist, occasionally you can still make a big gain. At its core, it's still about capitalizing on news.$ZEC Stock Split Countdown: Triple Narratives Support, Don't Ignore the "Sell the Fact" $ZEC is currently at 1535, up another 2.8% intraday. Only 3 days remain until the September 30 stock split. The split does not represent a fundamental change but lowers the per-share price, making it easier for smaller funds to participate, with liquidity expectations heating up accordingly. The sentiment behind this rally is supported by more than just the stock split. First, Grayscale's ZCSH has been listed for nearly a month, with holdings exceeding 400,000 coins, indicating institutional funds are still allocating, and the chip structure is relatively stable. Second, the privacy sector's heat is rising again; NEAR's privacy-related cumulative trading volume has reached 29.3 billion, and as a veteran privacy leader, ZEC is easily associated by investors. Third, the stock split countdown itself creates scarcity, potentially attracting retail investors early. The resonance of these three factors means 1570 is not a natural ceiling. However, the closer to the event, the more caution is needed against "all good news being priced in." The stock split is merely a division of equity and does not create value; once expectations are fully priced, there is often a sell-off around the effective date. Historical experience shows that the event's realization is often harder to trade than the buildup. In terms of timing, holding before the split is acceptable, but one should beware of sharp volatility on and around the effective date. If looking to increase allocation, it might be better to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than chase at the peak of sentiment. Technical observation: 1520 is the first support; if broken, look to 1380; on the upside, 1680 is the first resistance, and breaking through that leads to 1850 as the next pressure point. The stock split is a catalyst, not a guaranteed shield against declines. Not investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Today's most interesting conflict among high Beta is that HYPE is still hovering around 91, while FET has surged from 0.19 all the way to 0.24, and WLD has also retraced back to around 0.49. One is digesting historical highs, one is accelerating, and the other is regaining AI sentiment—three completely different states. #HighBetaContinuesToDiverge #AIcoinsReclaimFunds $HYPE is currently about 91.7, trading between 90.8 and 92 today, with 90.5–91 becoming the most important short-term support; looking upward, 92 is the first breakout target, and only after reclaiming 94–95 can it have a chance to challenge the historical high of 98 again. Its current issue is not weakness but the prolonged sideways movement at a high level. $FET is currently about 0.242, with a high today of 0.2436; 0.239–0.24 has become the first defense; looking upward, 0.244 is the first breakout target, followed by 0.247–0.25. After three consecutive days of acceleration, this area is clearly more suitable for waiting for a pullback. $WLD is currently about 0.473, with a high today of 0.489; 0.455–0.46 is the first support, and 0.489–0.50 is the key resistance above. This lineup: HYPE waits for 94, FET defends 0.239, WLD waits for 0.49. High Beta is not lacking in gains now; what really matters is who will have a second batch of funds willing to buy after a pullback. BTC fell below 84,000, yet the ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for six consecutive days. Through this set of divergent data, we observe three fundamental "qualitative changes" occurring in BTC's asset attributes and market microstructure: 1. What is being bought is not a "rebound," but an "inflation call option" Under the macroeconomic strain of "high inflation + high interest rates," traditional capital buying BTC is not speculating on short-term capital gains but treating it as BTC fell below 84,000, yet the ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for six consecutive days. Through this set of divergent data, we observe three fundamental "qualitative changes" occurring in BTC's asset attributes and market microstructure: 1. What is being bought is not a "rebound," but an "inflation call option" Under the macroeconomic strain of "high inflation + high interest rates," traditional capital buying BTC is not speculating on short-term capital gains but treating it as Brothers, at this point, absolutely do not blindly short or long $ZEC, whoever shorts will regret it, whoever touches it will be unlucky! Because right now it's clearly a bearish situation, a downtrend, but the big players are stubbornly holding on, even if it breaks the support line, they can still pull it back. With such tough big players, if you try to bet on it going short or long now, you can easily get trapped. You can wait a bit longer to let the trend become clearer. If you really want to trade, you can do a short-term short or long to try your luck, because the volatility is quite large now, quick in and quick out is the way to go. ZEC short position opened at an average price of 1466, current price 1539, down 15%, margin 87, liquidation price 2104. It pulled from 1466 to 1539 again, this rebound exceeded expectations, but it just can't fall or rise, just oscillating back and forth. On the order book, there are sparse sell orders pressing between 1539.78 and 1539.67 above, and the buy side is not strong either, with a long-short ratio of 31% to 69%, shorts actually have the advantage. Why say the trend is unclear? When shorts are crowded, it pulls up all the way; when longs counterattack, it just moves sideways. On-chain whales are withdrawing coins to accumulate, while others are distributing and rotating positions, bullish and bearish factors intertwined, the direction is completely unclear. The daily RSI has already shown bearish divergence, price making new highs while RSI forms lower highs, upward momentum is weakening. Brothers, in such an unclear market, absolutely do not hold heavy positions stubbornly. Find high points to bet short-term shorts, find low points to bet short-term longs, quick in and quick out is the right way. #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for 6 consecutive days $BTC $ETH🚨 THIS WEEKLY CLOSE MATTERS $BTC is sitting right under the May high. A weekly close above it changes the structure completely. Hold above → breakout confirmed, $90K comes into play. Reject back below → this starts looking like a fakeout, and Q4 weakness becomes much more likely. I’m not trying to predict which one happens. I’m watching the close and reacting to it. That’s the level that tells us what comes next.My entry into the crypto world was actually quite accidental. At that time, I had just changed jobs and had some spare money. I saw someone on my phone saying you could make money with this. I thought, why not give it a try. I spent a whole morning fiddling with the app. I had to receive the verification code several times before it went through. The first time, I deposited 300 yuan. Bought a coin whose name I couldn't even pronounce properly. Right after buying, it dropped. It dropped so much I couldn't even enjoy my lunch. I held on for two days, then sold. Three days after I sold, it went up. I stood in the stairwell and smoked a cigarette. Later, I heard that contracts make money faster. So I tried that too. I lost the 7,000 yuan I had saved overnight. My wife asked where the money went. I said I lent it to an old classmate. She believed me, but I felt bad for days. Since then, I haven't touched those things. I left the groups. Blocked the signal callers. Also muted those showing off their profits. Now I only use spare money to buy some spot. I only hold three coins. $BTC $ETH $SOL Cleared out the rest. Not because they're better. It's because I can't hold on. When it goes up, I'm afraid it'll fall. When it falls, I'm afraid it'll go to zero. Might as well look less. At most once a day. If I make money, I treat myself to a chicken leg. If I lose, I consider it tuition. No borrowing money. No all-in. No leverage. I can sleep at night. That's better than anything. This is probably my most honest takeaway from playing crypto. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 How to avoid buying a local top in the midst of an uptrend: bitcoin spends very little time above Q75 on the short-term holder MVRV indicator. $BTC$2,661-$2,743 oscillation range, how to view $ETH breaking up or down Current market conditions show ETH trading around $2,692 (September 27, 00:46 CST), stuck between the high and low points of September 25. Reference daily chart: weekly high around $2,807.67 (September 22), September 25 surged to about $2,742.69 then retreated, low point about $2,660.73. On the funding side, the same line: ETF peak day $270 million, latest full day $87 million, six-day total about $834 million but the slope has broken. Perpetual positions about 600,000 ETH, rate about 0.0008%, not like a short squeeze structure, more like weekend low-volume consolidation. Up: daily candle closes above about $2,743 with volume and retests to confirm, then consider retesting around $2,808. Down: daily candle closes below about $2,661, and ETF turns to net outflow, prioritize treating it as a break below the range support. Lingering between high and low points without direction, false breakouts are common on weekends. Weekend liquidity is thin, making it easier for small orders to skew the price. Before a close confirmation is given, trade within the range first, do not rush to take a directional position. A breakout without volume support should be treated as a false breakout first. If volume does not increase, the range boundaries are more likely to be repeatedly tested back and forth. Both upper and lower boundaries require waiting for the close, do not chase with wicks. Focus on which gives a daily close confirmation first: $2,743 or $2,661.Engineers in the $FIL Filecoin ecosystem have built a working demo that links asset tokens on Avalanche with property certificates stored on Filecoin, and generates fingerprints via IPFS. Editing a line in the property certificate changes the fingerprint, so anyone checking will notice.ETF 四兄弟单日吸金，价格却像在装睡，这算启动前的洗筹还是派发前的温柔？ 你也在盯资金和K线谁先眨眼吗？ 我昨晚翻数据的时候愣了一下。9月25日美国现货ETF净流入：BTC 加了1.3447亿美元，ETH 加了8695万，SOL 加了8667万，XRP 也有2265万。四个方向同时被买，画面挺整齐的。但价格没有立刻给面子，这种"钱先到、价没动"的错位，反而比一根大阳线更值得琢磨。 先定义阶段。我不觉得现在是追涨段，更像博弈加洗筹的混合体。资金在往里走，但盘面没走出顺畅的延续，说明买盘在承接，卖压也没消失，双方都在试探。跨市场这条线更有意思：美股长端收益率还在高位晃，传统资金却愿意往加密ETF里放钱，这说明一部分配置盘不是来追涨的，是在做仓位再平衡。这种钱比杠杆资金慢，但更黏。 偏多的逻辑：四个品种同时净流入，说明风险偏好没有缩回单一资产，BTC和ETH拿大头是常规动作，SOL和XRP能分到接近九千万和两千多万，意味着山寨里的头部叙事还在被认真对待。如果接下来价格补涨，ETF就是提前量的证据，节奏上更像启动前的蓄力，而不是尾声。 潜在风险也得摆出来。第一，流入不等于立刻拉升，ETF申购Saturday, September 26, 2026 | Q3 · Issue 108 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Here's the conclusion first: I was wrong about this market cycle. I previously thought BTC would struggle to break the May high and that a new low was likely in Q4. Now, the first judgment has been invalidated by price, and the second needs to be reassessed. To those who followed my calls, referenced my analysis, or have trusted me, I apologize. Where was I wrong? I want to clarify. I treated macro pressure as a definite downward path and underestimated the possibility of an upward breakout. Even after price signaled otherwise, I did not promptly reduce my confidence in the original judgment. Legislative setbacks, hawkish statements, US and Japan rate hikes, shipping disruptions pushing energy prices higher—these bearish factors did occur. But I won't excuse myself by saying "the macro view was right, the market just hasn't reacted yet." Whether the macro judgment is correct must ultimately be tested by price, credit, and capital behavior. Spotting a few news items correctly doesn't mean understanding how they impact assets. Even if a decline happens later, it won't prove I was wrong at the time, because the breakout has already occurred, and those who followed my judgment have already borne the cost of this market phase. On September 23, I wrote "No longer presuming a new low in Q4." This article takes it a step further: explaining what happened during this period, how I understood it then, and what needs to be revised. My current stance is to respect the breakout that has occurred and no longer presume a top. Whether the May high can hold this week will determine if this stance needs further adjustment. 1. BenefitsI first bought crypto last winter. A colleague secretly told me about it in the break room. He said this thing could turn around. I said I wouldn’t touch it. But I still installed the app when I got home at night. Spent a long time registering. The first time I deposited 400 yuan. Bought something whose name I can’t even remember. It dropped right after I bought it. Dropped so much I couldn’t sleep at night. The next day I couldn’t hold on and sold it. A few days after selling, it went up. I was so angry I smashed my cup. Later I heard contracts were even crazier. So I opened one. Lost all 6,000 yuan I had saved in one night. My wife asked where the money went. I said I lent it to an old classmate. She didn’t ask again, but I felt guilty for days. Since then, I’ve been more cautious. I left the groups. Blocked those who shout trading signals. Stopped looking at profit posts. Now I only use spare money to buy some spot. Mainly keep three in hand. $BTC $ETH $SOL Cleared out the rest. Not because they’re better. I just can’t hold on. Afraid of falling when it rises. Afraid of going to zero when it falls. Might as well look less. At most once a day. If I make money, I treat myself to a chicken leg. If I lose, I treat it as tuition. No borrowing money. No going all in. No leverage. Able to sleep at night. Better than anything else. This is probably my most honest experience playing crypto. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 This round of pullback from 87,000 to 82,812 was not caused by leverage collapsing on its own, but was pushed back by real data — the PMI data on September 23 hit a 5-year high, directly breaking the expectation that "the Fed will soon pivot." The 10-year US Treasury yield was pushed up to 5.11% (the highest since 2007), which is the real driver that crushed the leveraged long positions chasing highs, not just a simple emotional retreat. The chart now shows a rebound to 84,103, with the MACD's DIF narrowing to -4.0, about to form a golden cross with the DEA — this is a signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing, but it hasn't truly turned positive yet. This is different from the previous vertical surge caused by a chain squeeze of shorts; this time it feels more like a gradual grind, not an all-at-once move. If October really sees another rate hike as Goldman Sachs predicts, do you think the 84,000 level can hold, or will it test the 82,812 line again? $BTC The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never when you are in check, but when you count an extra pawn without noticing the opponent's lethal trap on the backline. $AAVE is currently in a mid-game confrontation. It has risen 4.68% in 24 hours, with the bulls pushing the pawns across the river, momentum seeming to charge toward the king's wing—but the short-term RSI has already reached 70.4, the overbought zone as thin as a sealed endgame; the long-term RSI is only 55.9, neutral to slightly soft. What does this mean? It means this advance has no backup pieces following; it’s a lone pawn deep inside, with weak squares behind it that cannot be defended. The real weakness is the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price has reached 132% of the band, standing outside the upper band, 1.1% above it, while there is still a 4.9% gap to the lower band—piece overload, disjointed offense and defense. The mid-term is at 66%, the mid-game structure is not yet broken, but there is no clear path for promotion. This is a typical "looks like winning pieces but actually losing position" scenario. So I will not short at 95.24. That’s a move a novice makes, forcing a line when the opponent’s formation is intact, exchanging pieces only to find the initiative in the opponent’s hands. My move is to wait for the opponent to make another seemingly beautiful advance—97.99, which is 2.9% above the current price. That’s where bullish sentiment is fullest, and the follow-up orders are densest, exactly the fuse for my tactical combination. The space down to the first target below is enough for me to complete a whole segment of the endgame. 📉 Short: $AAVE Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%) Take Profit 1: 87.10 (-8.5%) Take Profit 2: 90.03 (-5.5%) Stop Loss: 109.29 (+14.8%) A stop loss of over fourteen points for a battle line of just over eight points is not a gamble; it’s a forced execution of an endgame where the promotion path has been calculated to the end. A true grandmaster never plays one step at a time—I have already calculated the square where the opponent is forced to concede twenty moves ahead before making my move. The chess clock is running, I place my move at 97.99, and the rest, I let the opponent finish the game for me.$CC $CC /USDT This order book is a bit tricky, with buy and sell walls around 0.1399 pulling back repeatedly, like a manipulative trader shaking out short-term holders. It's a pure capital showdown; even without news, big swings can happen. At times like this, it's not about the story, but who cracks first. I tried a small position with a stop loss set just below the previous low—no stubbornness. Don't chase when it rises, and don't panic when it drops; position size matters more than direction. Are you guys watching this pool? Do you think it's a pre-pump shakeout or a real sell-off? 👇👇👇This is not a matter of design aesthetics; it is a structural mechanics issue—when the stress on the load-bearing columns approaches the limit, no matter how fancy the curtain wall is, it is merely decoration waiting to collapse. At this moment, I view the $ZORA price chart as a construction acceptance report. A 5.59% rise in 24 hours seems like a breakout upward, but in reality, the price has already reached the rebar on the upper Bollinger Band—there is only +0.3% margin left on the short-term upper band, and the midline position has even exceeded 101%, meaning the slab has already pierced through the formwork, and the load has nowhere to transfer. The short-term RSI reads 65.9, just one last stirrup away from the overbought red line, while the long-term RSI is only 44.4, indicating the lower foundation has not been poured synchronously; this is a typical sign of cantilever structural instability. My professional habit is: do not look at renderings, only trust the geological survey report. The current entry is set at 4.6% above the current price, which is equivalent to adding another cantilever beam on top of the backfill soil, exposing a huge risk. 📉 Short: Entry: $0.01 (current price +4.6%) Take Profit 1: $0.01 (-10.9%) Take Profit 2: $0.01 (-6.1%) Stop Loss: $0.01 (+15.5%) The lower Bollinger Band still leaves +7.3% settlement joint space; the first target at -10.9% is where the bearing layer can withstand the verification. The second target at -6.1% is only temporary support, not to be used as a permanent structure. The stop loss set at +15.5% allows for construction error margin, but if it really breaks through, it means the entire geological report of the area is forged.Hashrate ≠ Orthodoxy: When CORE Borrows Bitcoin's Security Shell, Who Defines the True BTC? ⚠️ This article is for investment research sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. In the BTCFi sector, the core narrative of Core DAO is to borrow Bitcoin's hashrate shell and claim to inherit Bitcoin's orthodoxy. The Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus allows Bitcoin miners to delegate hashrate to the Core network, thereby earning CORE token rewards. Many investors are convinced by this narrative: since there is BTC hashrate backing, this chain is an extension of Bitcoin's spirit; the stronger the hashrate, the more orthodox it is. But the August 31 reward contract vulnerability incident revealed a layer of truth: hashrate is only a security armor, not a certificate of orthodoxy. Borrowing Bitcoin's hashrate does not equal possessing Bitcoin's governance soul. A key question arises: what truly defines BTC? Is it hashrate or consensus? 1. CORE's Hashrate Shell: What Hashrate Can and Cannot Do Core's DPoW mechanism essentially involves Bitcoin miners attaching a line of information in their original mining transactions to "delegate" hashrate to Core's validator election. Miners do not need to consume extra electricity and earn additional CORE token rewards. - ✅ What hashrate can do: resist external 51% attacks, provide a foundational security barrier for the network, participate in the election weight of validator nodes. - ❌ What hashrate cannot do: fix smart contract vulnerabilities, adjudicate asset disputes, decide whether to roll back the ledger, or modify upper-layer protocol rules. Bitcoin miners only delegate hashrate to earn extra rewards and do not deeply participate in Core's contract governance. When facing upper-layer code bugs like the reward contract vulnerability, even massive BTC hashrate is powerless. Hashrate can only defend against external violent attacks but cannot resolve internal protocol logic flaws. This is the biggest narrative misalignment: Core externally promotes "BTC hashrate as the foundation," packaging hashrate as the source of orthodoxy; but major network crisis decisions are ultimately made jointly by 21 validator nodes, with miners not participating in upper-layer contract crisis voting. 2. The Truth About Bitcoin: Hashrate Has Never Been the Measure Defining BTC Many people have a common misconception: the higher the Bitcoin hashrate, the greater the power, and miners call the shots. Bitcoin's underlying governance is completely the opposite: 1. Miner duties: package blocks and execute established rules. Miners can only produce blocks according to existing protocol rules; 2. Full node users are the ultimate gatekeepers of the rules. Even if 99% of the network's hashrate produces blocks violating the rules, all full nodes will directly reject them as invalid. Bitcoin's orthodoxy is not voted in by hashrate. Developers propose changes, full node users decide whether to upgrade software, and the market, wallets, exchanges, and holders collectively form a rough consensus. No party has unilateral power to modify the ledger or roll back transactions. Miners and developers cannot override user economic consensus. In short: - Bitcoin: hashrate = security guard; full node users = owners, jointly defining what BTC is. - Core narrative: hashrate = orthodox identity; the higher the hashrate, the closer to Bitcoin. Core borrows Bitcoin's "security guard (hashrate)" but does not replicate Bitcoin's governance system of countless independent full nodes for checks and balances. Its internal governance is a committee model of 21 validator nodes, which is completely different from Bitcoin's distributed sovereignty. 3. The August 31 Crisis: When Hashrate Orthodoxy Meets Immutable Ledger Consensus The 69 million abnormal token minting incident was the toughest stress test for this hashrate narrative. The community faced two paths: 1. Roll back the ledger: rewind time and destroy the abnormally minted tokens. This would eliminate short-term selling pressure but set a precedent for manual ledger modification. Once a project can roll back, the blockchain's fundamental consensus of immutability collapses. Even if the vast majority of BTC hashrate supports rollback, token holders, community, and exchanges would experience huge splits. 2. Hard fork to patch the vulnerability: acknowledge the on-chain transactions that have occurred, preserve the complete ledger history, and block similar future vulnerabilities. The cost is that 69 million tokens cannot be recovered, leaving long-term selling pressure in the market. Core ultimately chose the hard fork and rejected ledger rollback. Interestingly, in this major decision determining the network's foundation, Bitcoin hashrate had almost no say. Hashrate can only protect the network from external attacks but cannot adjudicate core issues related to asset trust, such as "whether to modify historical ledgers." Orthodox supporters believe: with BTC hashrate backing, one has Bitcoin-level orthodoxy. But this crisis proved: the hashrate shell can be borrowed, but Bitcoin's consensus baseline cannot. 4. Core Question: Who Has the Right to Define the True BTC? BTC itself has never been just a piece of code or a pile of hashrate, but a set of social consensus. What defines BTC is the rules jointly recognized by countless independent nodes, token holders, wallet providers, and exchanges: the ledger cannot be arbitrarily altered, and no single entity can arbitrarily interfere with user assets. From this derive two key conclusions: 1. Hashrate can be rented, delegated, or borrowed; but Bitcoin's consensus cannot be outsourced. Core's Satoshi Plus is a highly innovative BTCFi engineering experiment that borrows BTC hashrate to solve public chain security challenges, and its technical innovation deserves recognition. But "borrowing security" ≠ "inheriting orthodoxy." Hashrate is only an externally borrowed protective shell; internal governance structure and asset handling rules remain an independent system. 2. Security capability should not be equated with orthodox identity. A chain can have Bitcoin-level hashrate security but still make governance decisions that the Bitcoin community would absolutely reject. Security and consensus are two completely independent matters. 5. Conclusion Hashrate is only a tool for network security, not a measure of "whether the Bitcoin spirit is inherited." Core has a solid shell built on Bitcoin hashrate but exposed in the August 31 incident: hashrate cannot resolve upper-layer contract crises nor replace distributed user consensus. What truly defines BTC has never been hash hashrate but the collective consensus of an "immutable ledger." Hashrate can be borrowed; consensus can only be slowly accumulated.If this wave is truly a trend-level major market move, then what you should be watching most right now isn't the candlestick chart, but the "pressure map" of derivatives. Have you noticed who is actually the most vulnerable in this rally? Recently, I have a strong feeling when watching the market: the price is strengthening, but what really determines the pace is where the leverage is stacked, how the funding rates are skewed, and which positions will trigger a chain squeeze once touched. ETH's weekly chart has rallied nearly 10%, breaking through the key resistance at 2661. As long as it holds around 2560, the first target zone above is 2775 to 2825. Only after a volume-supported consolidation there will it have a chance to reach 3000 to 3050. This path looks smooth, but its smoothness depends on no overcrowded longs being flushed out first. The bullish logic is actually not complicated: the spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for six consecutive days, and although long-term US Treasury yields are rising and financing pressure is increasing, on-exchange risk appetite has not clearly waned. ETH's outperformance of the broader market often means capital is willing to take on higher beta, giving altcoins and thematic plays some breathing room. ZEC's 24-hour trading volume has surpassed $1.2 billion. The short-term trend remains upward as long as 1500 is not broken; holding above 1600 targets 1700, but losing 1500 means guarding against a drop to 1350. SNDK is watching whether it can break through 1807 to 1828 in the short term; only after holding above that can we talk about 1880 to 1900. However, its gains this year have been significant, so high-level volatility will be more intense than ETH. But here is a fragile point that is easy to overlook: when everyone thinks "a pullback is a buying opportunity," when floating profits⚠️A sincere warning to friends wanting to trade $ZEC, please be very careful!🤓🤓🤓 ZEC has been fluctuating between 1500~1700 for nearly half a month, with strong support at 1450 that hasn't been broken. Short-term long and short battles can be played, but absolutely do not hold long-term positions. The market maker's support is ridiculously strong; despite negative news, the support just won't break.🤔🤔🤔 Current price is 1532.7, down slightly 0.78% in 24 hours, with longs and shorts almost balanced. I have a short position at 868.79, currently at a floating loss of -229.20%, with margin left at only 56.19U, liquidation price at 2689. After falling nearly 70 points from 1601, it still firmly holds the 1500 level. The three core reasons the market maker fiercely defends the price: ① Grayscale ETF locked positions, nearly $900 million in scale, holding close to 600,000 coins, shrinking circulating supply and greatly reducing selling pressure; ② Crowded shorts, continued short squeeze, shorts continuously paying funding fees, which fuels the main force's price rally; ③ 1400–1500 is the main cost zone for the market maker, with massive buy orders here; breaking below means losses for the main holders. ✅ Trading strategy: only do short-term quick in and out trades, carefully manage long and short positions, do not stubbornly hold long-term. I will continue holding my short position, with stop loss above 1700, first target at 1450, and if it breaks smoothly, look for 1400. $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 Core Fundamentalism's Waterloo? When the "Hashrate Orthodoxy" Meets Bitcoin's Governance Soul ⚠️This article is for investment research sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice After the rise of the BTCFi narrative, Core DAO has consistently upheld a hashrate orthodoxy: relying on the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, leveraging Bitcoin miners' hashrate endorsement, claiming to inherit Bitcoin's decentralization spirit, and treating BTC hashrate as the network's highest authority. However, the August 31 reward contract vulnerability incident sounded a harsh alarm for this narrative. When the project stood at the crossroads of "ledger rollback" and "hard fork to stop bleeding," everyone suddenly realized a core contradiction: Bitcoin's soul has never been decided by hashrate; and Core's fundamentalist approach of elevating hashrate as the supreme arbiter suffered a real-world Waterloo. 1. What is Core's "Hashrate Orthodoxy" Core's Satoshi Plus consensus, simply put, means: Bitcoin miners can delegate their hashrate to Core network's validator nodes, hashrate participates in network security, combined with CORE token staking DPoS mechanism, jointly electing 21 validator nodes to manage network governance. Core fundamentalists' core claims: 1. BTC hashrate is the foundation of the entire network; hashrate represents orthodoxy and decentralization; 2. Miners delegating hashrate is the ultimate guarantee of network security, with hashrate having the highest weight; 3. In major crises, the opinions of hashrate should have the highest priority. This narrative is also its biggest differentiator from other BTCFi public chains. Many buy CORE essentially because they believe: with Bitcoin hashrate backing, this chain inherits Bitcoin's spirit, making it secure and orthodox enough. 2. Bitcoin's True Governance Soul: Hashrate ≠ Supreme Power Many misunderstand that because Bitcoin miners have the most hashrate, they can arbitrarily modify the ledger and rewrite rules. But Bitcoin's underlying governance logic is completely different: - Miners' power is only to package blocks and execute existing rules; - Full node users are the ultimate arbiters of the rules. Even if miners control 99% of hashrate, if the blocks they produce do not comply with full nodes' preset rules, all nodes will reject those blocks outright. Miners cannot unilaterally change monetary rules, rollback the ledger arbitrarily, or destroy user assets unilaterally. Bitcoin governance's soul is that economic consensus takes precedence over hashrate. Hashrate is responsible for security; nodes and coin holders decide the rules. Hashrate is the "security guard," not the legislator, much less the judge. This is precisely the cognitive blind spot of Core fundamentalism: it borrows Bitcoin hashrate for security endorsement but elevates hashrate to the highest decision-maker in network governance. Bitcoin: hashrate is the security guard; user nodes are the masters. Core fundamentalist narrative: hashrate is both security guard and referee. 3. The August 31 Crisis: The Real Test of Hashrate Orthodoxy When the reward contract vulnerability was exposed, 69 million tokens were abnormally minted, presenting Core with two paths: 1. Ledger rollback: rewind time, directly revoke this minting transaction, and destroy the abnormal tokens. This clears selling pressure short-term but means the project team uses power to modify historical ledger. Once rollback precedent is set, it violates blockchain's immutability consensus, harms many innocent retail holders, and collapses the network's trust foundation. Even if hashrate supports rollback, coin holders and node community would split severely. 2. Hard fork to patch the vulnerability: do not alter historical ledger, acknowledge the transaction has occurred, block similar future vulnerabilities, and preserve complete on-chain history. The cost is that 69 million tokens cannot be recovered, and this selling pressure remains long-term in the market. Core ultimately chose the hard fork. The key point here: BTC hashrate can only protect the network from 51% attacks but cannot fix upper-layer contract vulnerabilities nor decide whether the ledger should rollback. Hashrate can resist external attackers, but is powerless against internal smart contract logic bugs. No matter how many Bitcoin miners delegate hashrate, they cannot automatically fix contract bugs nor decide for the community whether to rollback the ledger. This is the Waterloo of hashrate orthodoxy: hashrate can defend against external violent attacks but cannot resolve governance, contract, or asset disputes. Hashrate can ensure security but cannot arbitrate. Hashrate is only the underlying security; it cannot solve upper-layer governance conflicts. Fundamentalism deifies hashrate, thinking that as long as BTC hashrate is attached, it has Bitcoin-level governance resilience. Reality proves this narrative is exaggerated. 4. Deep Contradiction: The Inherent Dual Conflict of the Satoshi Plus Architecture Core network has two power systems: ✅ External security: Bitcoin delegated hashrate (PoW) ✅ Internal governance: 21 validator nodes + CORE token staking (DPoS) Bitcoin miners only delegate hashrate and do not participate in Core's upper-layer contract governance voting. Miners only receive hashrate subsidies and do not participate in protocol upgrades, vulnerability handling, or token rule changes. The real decision-makers for hard forks and protocol rules are the 21 validator nodes. In other words: Hashrate only "guards the gate," while major internal network decisions are made by a small circle of validator nodes. This exposes the contradiction in the fundamentalist narrative: Publicly promoting "BTC hashrate as foundation, inheriting Bitcoin spirit"; internally governed by a small validator node group, which is completely different from Bitcoin's governance model of "countless independent full nodes jointly guarding the rules." Bitcoin's decentralization is the sovereignty of thousands of independent full nodes; Core's decentralized security borrows external BTC hashrate, but internal governance is a validator committee model. The underlying governance logic of the two is fundamentally different. 5. The Cost of Two Paths: The Trade-off of Consensus If Core had listened to the "hashrate fundamentalists" and forcibly pushed rollback: - Short term: 69 million abnormal tokens disappear, selling pressure relieved, short-term price might rebound; - Long term: breaks the consensus precedent of "ledger immutability." Once the project team can manually rollback the ledger, all coin holders' assets are at risk of intervention anytime. The Bitcoin community's biggest taboo is manual ledger modification. #BTC spot ETF has attracted over $2.8 billion in inflows for six consecutive days When liquidity tailwinds collide with interest rate realities The spot ETF has drawn more than $2.8 billion in six days, which should be a sign of risk appetite; however, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising simultaneously, pushing financing costs up instead of down. Under expectations of tightening liquidity, Bitcoin hasn't crashed but also hasn't broken upward — this erodes confidence more than a decline would. BTC has repeatedly tried and failed to break above 87,000, falling back below 85,000. What the market remembers is not the size of the pullback, but that it "tried and failed." Short-term buying has weakened as a result. 84,300 is the last meaningful support in the current structure; if it breaks, 83,000–81,500 will come back into view. ETH also leaves a note. The long upper shadow above 2,810 looks like a fee charged to those chasing highs. The price has returned to 2,670, with 2,700 just within reach. More troubling is the sparse trading between 2,700 and 2,500; once broken, the downside may lack natural buffers. At this moment, the most honest approach is not to predict direction but to manage risk: being out of the market is better than shorting, and shorting is better than going long. This is not a firm bearish stance, but the cost of waiting at the current position is far lower than the cost of reckless trial and error. Markets will always exist; what is truly scarce is having bullets in your account when opportunities arise. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 $BTC $SOL $ETH 🔥 ETFs are buying, but the market isn't taking off together. Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon in capital flows: 🟠 $BTC Spot ETFs have had net inflows for about 7 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.98 billion. But the price is still oscillating around $84K. This indicates that capital is absorbing selling pressure rather than simply pushing prices up. 🔵 $ETH On September 25, there was a single-day inflow of about $87 million. The price is consolidating around the $2630–$2800 range, more like capital is gradually allocating rather than chasing a short-term rally. 🟢 $ZEC The fund size continues to expand, but recent capital increments have slowed, and short-term support is weaker compared to earlier periods. Even though ETF capital is flowing in, BTC reflects institutional absorption, ETH reflects capital consensus, ZEC reflects heat digestion. The market has already told us: Inflow is not the end. What really matters is whether the price responds after the capital comes in. Next, let's see who can break through the sideways structure first, rather than betting on a full rally prematurely.👀 The above is just a personal market record and does not constitute trading advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies SoftBank pays 9.75% to borrow money for computing power, while US homebuyers walk away at 7% mortgage rates. ▪️ SoftBank issues $11.1 billion in bonds, with the highest tranche coupon at 9.75%, the largest non-investment grade corporate bond ever ▪️ In the same week, the US 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.03%, breaking 7% for the first time in a year, refinancing down −65% ▪️ According to Goldman Sachs, global AI-related bond issuance reached $578 billion this year; the five major giants will issue another $420 billion by 2027 The disagreement is not about how long rates will stay high, but who is still willing to borrow at this price. SoftBank’s lowest tranche was 2.125% in 2021, now 8.625%, yet subscription is still three times oversubscribed. These people don’t care about the rate; they can’t wait: SoftBank has committed $64.6 billion to invest in OpenAI, while IPOs for OpenAI and SB Energy have both been delayed. BTC closed near 84,000 on 9/25, almost unchanged. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.23% intraday, the highest since 2007. Every step up in long-term yields adds another layer of opportunity cost to non-interest-bearing assets. At this price, would you lend money to buy computing power or to buy a house? That night, I originally just wanted to watch some videos. But I ended up watching one about crypto. He spoke so convincingly. I got impulsive and downloaded the app. Spent a long time registering. Couldn't even get the verification code. Finally got in and deposited 500. Bought a coin with a pretty long name. Right after buying, it started to drop. I stared at the screen, feeling uneasy. Wanted to sell but couldn't bear to. Didn't sell and feared it would go to zero. Stayed up until 2 a.m., then sold. Woke up the next day and saw it had risen. Sat on the bed, silent for a long time. Later, a friend said contracts make money fast. I tried again. Lost half my salary overnight. My wife asked where the money went. I said I treated someone to dinner. She didn't ask more; I felt guilty. Later, I quit all the groups. Stopped listening to signal callers. Stopped looking at profit posts. Now I only use spare money to buy some spot. Mainly holding just three. $BTC $ETH $SOL Cleared out the rest. Not because they're bad. I just can't hold on. Afraid of drops when it rises. Afraid of going to zero when it falls. Might as well look less. At most once a day. If I profit, I treat myself to a chicken leg. If I lose, I consider it tuition. No borrowing. No all-in. No leverage. Able to sleep at night. Better than anything else. This is probably my most honest takeaway from playing crypto. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 Trump reportedly rejected Iran’s 7-day proposal, yet oil failed to move higher. Brent closed around $104.32, down roughly 7.9% for the week. The key chain remains: oil → inflation → long-term yields → risk assets. Until yields cool, crypto could face difficulty extending higher. ₿ $BTC: $84K Support: $83.5K → $82K Resistance: $87.3K ETF inflows remain supportive, while RSI is in overbought territory. ♦️ $ETH: $2,688 A weekly close above $2,672 is important. Below that, $2,530–$2,550 remains.$BTC 从9月中旬接近 $75K 的低点重新反弹，并一度突破 $86K，市场正在重新定价比特币的需求与流动性。 几个变化值得关注： • ETF资金重新回流：美国现货 BTC ETF 在经历9月中旬的明显流出后迅速恢复买盘，自8月19日以来累计流入约46亿美元。 • 宏观流动性出现变化：美国财政部扩大长期国债回购计划后，市场流动性预期有所改善，BTC也开始对这一变化作出反应。 • 监管仍有波折，但市场并未失去信心：CLARITY Act在参议院推进受阻，短期曾引发ETF资金流出，但之后机构资金重新回到市场。 • 市场韧性正在被验证：即使面对利率、监管以及杠杆清算等压力，BTC依然重新站上 $80K，并向 $85K-$87K 区域推进。 所以，与其把这次反弹简单理解成一次“死猫跳”，现在的市场结构更像是在经历一场Crypto Spring——从低迷走向修复，从观望重新回到需求。 当然，ETF流量、美国利率、国债收益率以及监管进展仍然是接下来最值得关注的变量。 DYOR. NFA.The x account of the giant salamander is one of the most valuable accounts on web3 His 700U represents the pricing that x sets for vertical tracks In other words, vertical tracks are not suitable for creator revenue Anything over 700U can be understood as either general traffic or general traffic 原本的计划是在 85,000 美元附近反弹后再考虑做空，但当时有些着急，最终在 84,000 美元提前进场。现在回头看，这个入场位置并不算理想。 昨晚 BTC 一度反弹至 85,250 美元，触及上方明显阻力后迅速回落，随后出现一波快速下跌，最低来到 83,100 美元附近。 价格跌到 83,100 美元时，我其实犹豫了很久，最终还是没有选择平仓，目前继续持有空单。 从目前的盘面结构来看，我关注的第一个下行目标是 80,000 美元；如果后续市场继续走弱，长期则会关注 76,000 美元附近。 与此同时，接下来还需要重点观察宏观经济消息、市场风险偏好以及 BTC 资金流向的变化。如果新闻面出现新的催化因素，或者价格重新站回关键阻力位，当前的看空逻辑也可能发生变化。 目前关注： 🔹 入场：84,000 🔹 反弹高点：85,250 🔹 当前关键区域：83,100 🔹 第一目标：80,000 🔹 长线关注：76,000 以上只是我个人对这笔交易的记录和思考，并不是投资建议。 大家怎么看 BTC 接下来的走势？👇$BTC short position has been open for two days, so sharing my thoughts. I initially planned to short a rebound near $85K, but entered early around $84K — not the ideal entry. Last night, BTC bounced to $85.25K and faced strong resistance before dropping sharply to $83.1K. At $83.1K, I hesitated instead of closing, so the position remains open. My first downside target is $80K, while the longer-term target sits around $76K. What do you think? I have increased my short positions on both $BTC and $ETH BTC entry price moved from 80300 → 81489 ETH entry price moved from 25400 → 2601 I'm not afraid of BTC and ETH rising now; if they go up, I'll keep adding to my positions. I'm betting on a big move Because this year's market is really strange, US Treasuries, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies are all rising The 10-year US Treasury yield has directly broken through 5.2%, the highest in decades According to normal logic, when the 10-year US Treasury yield rises, risk-free returns increase, attracting funds out of stocks and crypto assets, causing their prices to fall. The current situation is obviously off; I have a strong feeling there will be a big drop. Maybe not now, but it will come. For now, I can only position this as a long-term short. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 I first got into crypto by watching short videos. Someone said you could make money, so I believed it. I spent a long time downloading the app. My hand trembled a bit when I was depositing money. The first time I bought, it was 200 yuan. Right after buying, the price dropped, so much that I couldn't eat. I held on for three days, then sold. A couple of days after selling, it went up. I was so angry I threw my phone on the bed. Later, I heard that contracts make money fast. I tried again. In one night, half a month's salary was gone. My wife asked where the money was. I said I treated my colleagues to dinner. Actually, I smoked half a pack on the balcony. Since then, I haven't touched those things. I left the groups. I blocked the signal callers. Now I only use spare money to buy some spot. I only hold three. $BTC $ETH $SOL Cleared out everything else. Not because they're better. It's because I can't hold on. When it goes up, I'm afraid it'll fall. When it falls, I'm afraid it'll go to zero. Might as well look less. At most once a day. If I make money, I treat myself to a chicken leg. If I lose, I treat it as tuition. No borrowing money. No all-in. No leverage. I can sleep at night. That's better than anything. This is probably my most honest experience with crypto. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 原本我的计划是在 85,000 美元附近反弹后再考虑做空，但实际交易中还是有些急了，提前在 84,000 美元进场。现在回头看，这个位置的入场确实不够理想，给自己留下的安全空间比较小。 昨晚 BTC 一度反弹到 85,250 美元附近，随后遇到明显阻力快速回落，最低回踩到 83,100 美元左右。 价格来到 83,100 附近的时候，其实我犹豫了很久要不要先止盈离场，但最终还是选择继续持有空单。 目前我的交易计划是： 🎯 第一目标：80,000 美元 🎯 如果后续市场继续走弱，第二目标关注：76,000 美元附近 不过现在的市场环境和几天前已经发生了一些变化。 近期 BTC 一度重新站上 85,000 美元，并曾突破 87,000 美元附近。与此同时，美国现货 BTC ETF 资金流入明显恢复，9月22日单日净流入接近 9.99亿美元，创下约11个月以来的单日最高水平。 另外，近期 ETF 资金整体重新转为净流入。彭博数据显示，截至9月23日，美国现货 BTC ETF 2026年累计净流入重新转正，而自8月19日以来资金流入约 46亿美元。 所以现在做空最大的风险，就是 资金面重新First, let me share my personal pessimistic view: within the next 5 years, there will be no large-scale real-world asset tokenization on this land. The main reasons are as follows: 1. Mainland regulations restrict this. Although there is some allowance, only specific enterprises can issue after approval, and only in overseas markets. This gives the impression that you are just raising money outside, like I create good things but they can't circulate domestically, only traded abroad. The best way for local high-quality assets to be tokenized is for locals to participate. If you buy a 100-piece painting RWA asset in London, doesn't it feel meaningless? Also, some assets have regional restrictions. 2. There are no mature public chains here. Although we can use the recently popular RobinHood chain or other Ethereum Layer 2s, there is no mature local chain that is stable enough (at the national level). We can't just use Chain Alliance chains. Currently, the only chain I know in China capable of this is Shutu Conflux. 3. Our stablecoins are too slow. Hong Kong's HKD stablecoin HKDAP is still in institutional public testing and the quantity is very limited. If we really have high-quality assets tokenized here with such a large market, using other people's public chains and stablecoins is like giving others a dowry. Also, the assets that are most suitable for tokenization are not gold or stocks, but accounts receivable, supply chain notes, insurance, data center computing power—these "fragmented, chaotic, and hard-to-transfer" assets. Gold tokenization (like PAXG, Tether Gold) essentially issues a digital certificate for gold bars in the vault. But gold already has the London Bullion Market and ETFs.The past two days have seen a drop, and a large number of bulls have been buried again. Liquidations in the past 24 hours reached 154 million, which doesn't sound like much. But long positions liquidated 96.37 million, while short positions only 57.98 million. BTC long positions liquidated 30.45 million, shorts only 8.16 million. Do you see it clearly now? These past two days, it’s not the shorts making money, but the bottom-fishers getting buried. $BTC dropped from 87,000 to 84,000. The drop doesn’t look big. But every time it dips a little, a group rushes in to bottom-fish, only to be pushed down again. It seems like every time it dips a bit, someone shouts “it’s the bottom,” but there’s still more below. In this drop, bulls have suffered far worse than shorts. Because shorts entered at the high, bulls caught it halfway down. That’s the difference between bottom-fishers and trend followers. I haven’t moved these past two days. This kind of slow decline is the worst — it’s neither a sharp crash to get it over with, nor a reversal to give hope, just a grind down bit by bit. Grinding until you think it won’t drop anymore, then it drops a little more. Have you been bottom-fishing or staying out these past two days? Let’s talk in the comments. The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice. $ETH I’ve come to understand it, really understood it. Seeing the “gurus” in the group flaunting profits get knocked back to reality by a single wick suddenly made everything clear. $ETH’s recent spikes and dips have truly ground both bulls and bears into the dirt. The day before yesterday, the bulls were lifted by a pump; yesterday, the bears got smashed, and those chasing longs lined up for the rooftop. The market makers aren’t bloodsucking monsters—they’re running a buffet, taking a bite from both sides. I once hated how it gave no chance to my short positions, but later I realized the market owes no one. With heavy positions, even the right direction can be wiped out by a single wick; with high leverage, even the smallest fluctuation is a death sentence. Ethereum remains weak today, my account took a hit, but I dare not go full short again, nor flip to chase longs. It’s not cowardice, it’s tuition paid in full. The scariest thing in the market isn’t being wrong, it’s being right and still losing money. Keeping some capital and patience is more important than betting it all on one breath. Whether you’re a greenhorn or a teacher, who isn’t just another dish on the market maker’s menu? Once you understand this, your grip loosens. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 🔥 $BTC This rebound is not over, but the short-term has already entered the "post-strength digestion phase." 📊 On September 21, BTC once surged near 【87,000】, then retreated to consolidate around 【84,000】. The current issue is not whether it will rise, but why the price has not been able to turn 【85,000】 back into support after the surge. 🧩 The capital side has not shown obvious weakening. The US spot BTC ETF has recently seen continuous net inflows, about 【999 million USD】 on September 21 alone, indicating institutional funds are still participating. ⚠️ But greedy sentiment does not necessarily mean the price will continue to rise. After profit-taking at high levels, if BTC fails to reclaim 【85,000】 for a long time, the consolidation period may actually be extended. 🎯 So now I only watch two signals: firmly standing above 【85,000】 to look for upward recovery; breaking below 【84,000】 with volume, then prepare for downside space. In the middle, better to move less. 👀 Do you think this round of BTC is accumulating strength at a high level, or has the rebound already started to cool down? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 $BTC short position held for two days, sharing thoughts on the position. Originally planned to short on a rebound at 85000, but impatiently entered early at 84000, a poor entry point.Last night, it rebounded to 85250, hitting strong resistance, fortunately then it waterfall dropped back to 83100.At 83100, I hesitated for a long time without closing the position, continuing to hold. The first target for this pullback is 80000, with a long-term outlook at 76000.What does everyone think? Check the #21Shares launches Europe's first ZcashETP The boss has something to say 21Shares has launched the first physically-backed Zcash ETP in Europe, listed in Paris and Amsterdam. Traditional securities accounts can get exposure to ZEC prices without managing private keys themselves. This is the second compliant channel for ZEC after Grayscale ZCSH. I believe this is a long-term positive, but don't get carried away in the short term. The basis is that ZEC just fell from 1680 to around 1500, a high volatility range, and the positive news has already been speculated on. The ETF channel can bring continuous funds, but it is not the buying itself; whether it can convert into real demand depends on subsequent subscription and redemption data. NU7 upgrade testnet on October 6, mainnet target on November 5. Technical iteration is progressing, but distant water cannot quench near thirst. After Bitcoin surged to 87,000 and then fell back, I missed this wave and won't chase the high. For ZEC, wait for a pullback to see if 1500 can hold before considering light positions. The Fed just raised rates, 5-year US Treasury yields broke 5%, the high interest rate environment remains unchanged, so no heavy bets on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-loss set. Good luck.#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 On the day the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.5%, the two most rate-sensitive segments fell. ▪️ Close on 9/25: 2-year at 4.86%, 5-year at 4.99% (both down nearly 7bp), 30-year rose to 5.49%, up 17.5bp for the week ▪️ The 5-year and 30-year yield spread widened 8bp in one day back to 49bp, earlier this week it was the narrowest in over a year ▪️ Consumer one-year inflation expectations rose from 4.0% to 4.6% (highest since June), long-term at 3.4% ▪️ On the same day, BTC spot ETF net inflows over six days reached $2.84 billion, yet the coin price dropped from 87,000 to below 83,000 The divergence is not about whether to buy the ETF or not. This time, the 2-year and 5-year yields fell first, only the 30-year rose — and it was pushed up by futures trading: ultra-long contracts traded 60% more than usual. Assets that generate no cash flow are discounted at the long end. Loose short end and tight long end is the most uncomfortable combination: the market is not afraid of economic collapse, but unwilling to pay for long bonds. The ETF money is chasing allocation ratios, not this price. Should you watch the ETF money or the long-end price? Which side are you betting on? When I first got into the circle, I was just blindly joining the hype. My colleague was checking K-line charts at his desk every day. He said this makes money fast. I said not to get carried away, but went home and downloaded the app anyway. Spent a long time registering. First time I deposited 300 yuan. Bought a coin whose name I couldn’t even pronounce. Right after buying, it dropped. Dropped so much I woke up in the middle of the night to check my phone. Held on for two days, then sold. A few days after selling, it went up. I sat on the toilet stunned for ten minutes. Later I heard contracts were even more exciting. I tried that too. In one night, the 5,000 yuan I saved was gone. My wife asked where the money went. I said I lent it to a fellow villager. She didn’t ask more, but I felt guilty for days. Since then, I’ve been more cautious. Left groups. Blocked signal callers. Stopped looking at profit posts. Now I only use spare money to buy some spot. I only hold three. $BTC $ETH $SOL Cleared out the rest. Not because they’re better. I just can’t hold on. Afraid of falling when it rises. Afraid of going to zero when it falls. Might as well look less. At most once a day. If I make money, I treat myself to a chicken leg. If I lose, I consider it tuition. No borrowing. No going all in. No leverage. I can sleep at night. Better than anything else. This is probably my most honest takeaway from playing with coins. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 #Strategy提议为优先股发放每日股息 Got baited into another pump… and somehow I still managed to long $ONE right at the top. 😭 Yesterday, I watched $ONE run from 0.0014 to 0.0027, almost doubling. I got impulsive, chased the move, and now I’m sitting on a floating loss of 14.59%. This meme whale really knows the game: Pump → attract momentum traders → dump → panic selling → pump again → repeat. And retail becomes the exit liquidity. But this time, I’m not panicking. I’m using only 2x leverage, with liquidation around 0.0013, so Is it still necessary to hold long positions in SanDisk? I've been quite conflicted about SanDisk $SNDK's recent price movement these past couple of days. It surged strongly earlier, and market sentiment was clearly bullish, but now that it has reached this level, it's no longer just about the fundamentals; it's more about whether the capital is willing to keep pushing it further. Personally, I wouldn't turn bearish just because of a short-term pullback. The storage chip logic behind SanDisk remains intact, and the growth in storage demand from AI servers and data centers isn't going to end overnight. So if you took long positions at lower levels earlier, I don't think you need to rush to exit just because of one or two bearish candles. However, if you're only chasing longs now, I'd be more cautious. After a continuous rise, the profit-taking pressure is quite heavy, and if the broader market or tech sector sentiment weakens, the pullback could be swift. My approach is simple: keep holding long positions from lower levels but don't over-allocate; if you entered at higher levels, don't blindly add more. I'd rather wait for a pullback confirmation before deciding whether to add more. In my view, SanDisk's biggest risk right now isn't that the logic suddenly disappears, but whether the market will give it room to continue rising after such a rapid increase. The focus going forward is on trading volume and the strength of support after a pullback. #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 I choose to take a slightly advanced position now; if it falls below 1700, I will decisively cut losses, with an upside target around 1900. I hope SanDisk can surprise me.ETF has been bought continuously for about a week, but the three coins show different reactions BTC spot ETF has been flowing in for about 7 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately 2.98 billion, with BTC still hovering around 84,000. Subscriptions are holding off selling pressure but haven't pushed the price directly upward. ETH on September 25 saw a single-day inflow of about 87 million, yet the price is stuck between 2630 and 2800. This looks more like gradual position building, with few chasing the rally. ZEC fund size is close to 1 billion, and in the past three days ZCSH has had almost no new inflows, with short-term support softer than in previous days. One "inflow" label can't cover the three lines. These days, first watch who breaks out of the sideways range; don't bet on all taking off at once. #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 Entering together, different fates.擦🔥 $ETH Today's market might have the biggest trading signal as — no signal. 📊 The price has been slightly fluctuating all day; the bulls can't push it up, and the bears can't create space to drop it. This kind of market is the easiest to make people itchy-handed, but in reality, the middle of the range is often the least cost-effective position. 🧩 What’s really worth waiting for is the edges of the range: near support to see if there's any buying, near resistance to see if there's a breakout. Neither side is giving an answer now, and repeatedly opening positions can easily become a double drain of fees and emotions. 🌙 But you do need to watch for sudden volume spikes at midnight. A sideways market during the day doesn't mean it will stay sideways at night; if funds suddenly enter, ETH could quickly break out of the current consolidation range. 🛡️ So tonight, I’m not guessing whether it will definitely rise or fall. If there’s no position, just rest; follow the breakout when it happens, handle the break when it occurs. 😴 After watching all day with no opportunity, I won’t stay up late with it. The market won’t close just because I sleep; when the real move comes, there will be opportunities tomorrow as well. 👀 Do you think ETH will suddenly pump tonight, or will it keep grinding everyone down until they lose patience? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 The weekend market is grinding people down. $BTC is weaving back and forth between $83,800 and $84,800, $ETH is also moving sideways around $2,677—$2,697. Volatility is almost gone. Big money is resting, retail traders are tossing around inside, which easily leads to this kind of "painted door" market. The reason for no direction now is simple: There are a lot of sell orders pressing from above, and previously $BTC $1.5 billion options expiry was also at this level, creating a "nail effect." There is support at $83,000 below, institutional ETFs have had net inflows for 6 consecutive days, so there is capital propping up the bottom. No major macro catalysts for now, just waiting for the US employment data on October 2. Next, watch three points: 1. Can $85,000 break out with volume and hold? If it breaks, watch $87,300. 2. Can the $83,000 support hold? If it breaks, it may retest $80,000. Clear enough! 3. The flow of spot ETF funds, this is the core driving force of this round of the market. The more you watch the market over the weekend, the more likely you are to get itchy hands and make wrong moves. #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 Saw late at night that Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan. Previously, the market was still talking about easing tensions. Brent crude dropped more than 4 points on September 25th, and everyone thought the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. But now U.S. media cite officials saying Trump not only rejected it but is also considering resuming military action after the midterm elections in November. The Strait of Hormuz is no joke; about 20% of the world's oil passes through there. If something happens again, oil prices definitely won't stay at current levels. If oil prices rise, U.S. inflation won't come down, the Federal Reserve will have to stay hawkish, and risk assets will fall. This chain of events is easy to understand, but the market reaction is interesting. The earlier drop was due to expectations of easing. Now that those expectations are dashed, oil prices should rebound. But look at Friday's market—oil was just so-so, indicating the market is hesitant, unsure if Trump really wants to fight or is just making tough talk to rally votes before the midterms. My judgment is, don't be too optimistic in the short term. Geopolitics changes daily; chasing news to trade is just giving money to manipulators. What we should really watch now are the dollar index and oil prices. If oil prices climb back above 100, inflation expectations will rise again, putting pressure on BTC and U.S. stocks. Conversely, if the thunder is loud but the rain light, and oil prices keep falling, risk assets can catch a breather. #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 #霍尔木兹协议待落地，原油风险等待定价 $BZ $CL $USO The current rise is not euphoria but a "recovery." $BTC has maintained the $84,000 range even after reaching $87,000. ETFs are repurchasing coins for real demand, and liquidity is easing due to government bond buybacks. Regulations are still rough but not hostile. It didn't collapse even with a major hack. Therefore, this is closer to a "crypto spring" rather than a dead cat bounce. Invest at your own risk. This is not investment advice.
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