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$ETH dipped to 2651 then quickly recovered to 2670, indicating buyers at the bottom and no continued selling pressure. The capital flow hasn't weakened either: in the latest full trading day, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $17.1 million, with positive inflows for several consecutive days; about $183 million accumulated over the past 7 days, and about $910 million over the past 30 days.
The short-term key level remains 2650. If it holds, after breaking through 2750, look towards 2800; only if 2800 is firmly held will there be a chance to challenge 3000 again.
Strategy: 2650 is the defense line, reduce positions if broken; lightly follow if it stands above 2750, target 2800; if 2800 is firmly held with volume, then consider 3000. Continuous ETF inflows provide confidence, but don't chase highs—wait for confirmation.
$ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Let's take a look at Solana. Solana's focus this time is "waiting." Currently, shorting doesn't offer much advantage; the price is around 119, with little downside, and the upside just hits the lower edge of selling pressure. Instead of forcing short now, it's better to wait for it to rebound up to around 120. Shorting within resistance makes the position much better. Compared to previous posts, the direction is still short, and the stop-loss is still at 140. The difference is that this time the entry point is more specific: not at the current price but waiting for 120, then buying at 125. This time's price level: ◎ Direction: Short, but waiting for a rebound. ◎ Entry: Around 120. ◎ Adding to positions: 125. ◎ Stop-loss: 140. ◎ Take profit: Decide as you please. How did the 120 price level come from? On the 1-hour chart, there is a red selling pressure zone between 119.3~120.5, and the current price is just below it. If the market pushes higher today, Solana will easily be pulled into this area. Shorting then is equivalent to standing at a position where others are selling off. Adding positions at 125 is because that is the weak high during this period; last week it turned around there; If it really pulls to 125, adding a share there will improve average cost. Stop loss at 140 is far enough to leave room for this back-and-forth market swing. What if it just doesn't rise again? Then don't do it. Today, Bitcoin turned bullish on the 1-hour chart, and when the market is strong, short positions shouldn't be rushed. Missing a short position is not a big loss; chasing shorts我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 以太這次沒有什麼特別的訊號。價格夾在中間，往上有壓力、往下有支撐，兩邊都還有一段距離，這種位置進場，不管做多做空，風險報酬都不算漂亮。所以我的建議是先觀察，真的要做，就照下面兩個方向，等價格自己走到位置。 兩個方向的價位： ▲ 偏空方案：2,780 附近可以空。 ▼ 偏多方案：回到 2,650 先輕倉做多。 ▼ 偏多加碼：2,600。 ✖ 停損（多單）：跌破 2,400 左右就出場。 這跟之前有什麼不一樣？前幾篇我是把以太當成慢慢打底、等 2,500 分批的節奏；現在比特幣的 1 小時圖翻多，以太卻沒有跟著給出明確訊號，所以我改成「兩邊都留一手」的寫法。上面碰到 2,780 那塊賣壓，可以試空；下面回到 2,650 那層支撐，可以小量接多，2,600 再補。中間這一段，就讓它自己晃。 最怕的是什麼？就是在 2,710 這種正中間的位置，看到漲一點就追多、跌一點就追空，最後兩頭被打。沒有位置的時候，不動也是一種操作。把掛單放在 2,780 和 2,650，然後去做別的事，讓價格決定我們站哪一邊，比盯著盤面猜方向輕鬆很多。 技術面，這次是 1 小時圖。上方紅色賣Today's Crypto Circle Watch: Three Main Characters, Three Personalities
$BTC is like a meditating old monk, holding steady at 83300 for a long time, not even blinking. You stare at it, it stares back, as if saying, "What's the rush? I'm not going anywhere."
$ETH is like someone waiting for takeout, pacing back and forth around 2675, occasionally glancing at their phone—"Why isn't it here yet?" Actually, the delivery arrived long ago, it just didn't hear the doorbell.
$SOL is the most restless. Suddenly it spikes to 120, you shout "Go!" but it’s already back to 119, like a kid setting off a firecracker to startle you, then walking away as if nothing happened.
The Q3 report card is actually pretty good: BTC +42%, ETH +70%, SOL +61%. But those who entered the market these past two days probably experienced: deposit then drop, deep breath then sideways, just about to chase then pullback.
Greed index at 73, market sentiment is overheated. When others are FOMOing, placing a take-profit order isn’t shameful. What’s shameful is chasing only to find you got left behind by SOL again.
On sideways days, don’t fight the candlesticks. Go pour a glass of water, and when you come back, it’s still there. Real opportunities often quietly approach when you stop staring at the screen. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🔥 ETH is stuck at 2,700 with resistance at 2,800 and support at 2,650
ETF ends 7 consecutive inflows, but old whales have moved 133,000 ETH
At this position, is it a buildup for a breakout or a bull trap?
📍 ETH around 2,700｜24h +0.6%
📊 Funds and on-chain:
· Spot ETF latest disclosure shows a one-day net outflow of $2.81 million, ending 7 consecutive inflows
· Futures open interest about $33.6 billion, traders deleveraging ahead of data
· Old addresses from the 2015 ICO period moved 133,300 ETH (about $356 million), movement does not equal selling
🎯 Above 2,800 targets 3,000; if it fails to hold 2,650, look for 2,550.
⚡ Today's altcoin movers:
· NEAR around 5.27: up over 100% since August, approaching resistance at 5.40 to 5.50, increased risk of pullback
· XRP around 1.50: today Ripple routinely released up to 1 billion tokens from custody, Nasdaq voted on a treasury company holding 473 million XRP the same day, volatility may increase
Altcoins have low liquidity and high volatility, for reference only, not investment advice.
Do you think ETH will break 2,800 first or retest 2,650? Vote in the comments 👇
$ETH $NEAR $XRP $ZEC $CP $SNDK Micron just announced FY2026 Q4 revenue of $54.23 billion, far exceeding last year's $11.32 billion for the same period; the company's FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance midpoint is $61.5 billion, also stating that AI memory demand is very strong, with long-term customer agreement amounts increasing from $22 billion in June to $32 billion.
Regarding altcoins, I understand it this way:
First layer: Direct impact — weak
Micron is not a crypto asset company, so its financial report will not directly change the fundamentals of BTC, ETH, or altcoins.
What really matters is:
Micron financial report → AI/semiconductor stocks → Nasdaq/risk assets → BTC → altcoins
Historically, AI chip company earnings have not consistently influenced BTC. For example, after Nvidia's earnings this year, BTC rose along with the Nasdaq; but during another semiconductor company's earnings plunge, BTC's reaction was minimal.
Second layer: For AI-related altcoins — somewhat positive
This part is actually worth your attention.
The core message Micron released this time is:
AI computing power demand shows no obvious cooling → HBM/memory demand continues to explode → AI data center capital expenditure remains strong.
This will strengthen the market's expectations for the entire AI infrastructure industry chain. After PCE data came in below expectations, macro pressure was temporarily lifted, and funds quickly replenished, leading to a broad rally among the three major mainstream coins. However, technical indicators have quietly issued overheating warnings.
$BTC: Returned above 84,000, with RSI soaring to 71.45 entering the overbought zone. On the news front, Hut 8 has restarted bidding for Texas mining assets, continuing the mining company consolidation trend. Fundamentals provide support, but the short-term risk of chasing highs now outweighs the opportunity.
$ETH: Leading the rally strongly, breaking above 2,700. News is mostly positive—staking withdrawal expectations have weakened, and the compliant stablecoin ecosystem continues to expand. However, the technicals are severely overextended, and a sharp correction could occur at any time.
SOL: Up over 1%, completing a $15 million premium financing round, maintaining strong capital interest. RSI at 68.55, relatively healthy. But if the overall market pulls back, SOL’s high volatility will likely amplify the decline.
Macro positives have been realized, and funds have quickly replenished, but ETH and BTC have entered technical overbought zones. The cost-effectiveness of chasing the rally now is very low; it is recommended to wait for a pullback to digest floating positions before entering.$MON is a bit hot in the short term
Monad is a high-performance Layer1, with its testnet running over 10,000 transactions per second and compatible with the EVM ecosystem. The criticism lies in the initial 50.6% token lockup, which will unlock again in November 2026. Early VCs refused to sell at a discount and exited, indicating they believe their holdings are more valuable.
Moving away from pure "easy gains" narratives, the on-chain real TVL is heading towards $1 billion, with stablecoin and DEX trading volumes both increasing.
The 1-hour chart shows a strong bullish candle, with RSI at 82, clearly overbought in the short term. Resistance is seen between 0.0335 and 0.035, while support is around 0.0325. If it breaks below, it's better to watch more and act less after this rally.
DEX trading volume in the last 24 hours rose by 38%, funds are indeed flowing in, but the futures long-short ratio is about 1.1, indicating longs are a bit crowded.
The liquidation volume of shorts is six times that of short positions, and bullish sentiment is quite exuberant, making the short term a bit crowded.
The Fed's rate cut expectations remain, and the market hasn't crashed, which is a good window for altcoins.
Fundamentals are not bad, but the recent surge is too sharp; the RSI and price divergence calls for caution against a pullback. Those who haven't entered yet shouldn't rush to chase; waiting for a pullback and stabilization is safer. I urgently want to open a position now; the fear of missing out is haunting me. On one hand, I saw a strategy signal to go long this morning but didn't follow it, which makes me feel like the money that should have been mine has disappeared. This feeling is actually incorrect.Still firmly bullish, patiently holding,
$BTC is currently still bullish, holding steady at 82500, a light position can be entered on a pullback to 83600, stop loss at 82400, take profit at 85500-86500
$ETH has also completed a 4-hour bottom after oscillating around 2630, with the second coin at 2670. Light position entry at 2660. Stop loss at 2620, target 2750, 2780.
⚠️The above is for reference only, investment carries risks
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Let's take a look at Bitcoin. This time, I'm updating my views on Bitcoin. In previous posts, I kept saying, 'Don't chase the current price, wait for pullbacks,' but today, looking at the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin has shown a long signal, so you can be more aggressive than before. It's not about buying heavily or aggressively going in, but rather giving you a clearer entry point. The price levels this time are as follows: 📍 Open long zone: 83,000~83,500. 📍 Near the current price: You can first test long positions with small positions. 📍 Take profit: 86,000. 📍 Add positions: Around 81,000. 📍 Stop loss: 78,000. Why do I say the current price is worth testing, but the main force is still at 83,000~83,500? Because the segment on the 1-hour chart happens to be a support area, the pullback after last night's data was caught around here. The current price is around 84,200, about 1% below that level. If you go all-in on the current price, just one more retest will make your mindset very uncomfortable. So the more comfortable approach is: hold a small portion at the current price as a "get in first." The real main force waits until it returns to 83,000~83,500 before buying. If it falls further to 81,000 and buys again, 78,000 is the bottom line of the entire plan. Some might ask, wasn't it always said before that Bitcoin might weaken first? That's right, that's based on the signals at that time; the current 1-hour chart shows a long signal, so your views follow the signals. Trading isn't about proving you were right before, but about seeing new signalsSOL MOMENTUM
$SOL has been showing strong recent momentum.
But momentum is not the same thing as confirmation.
Higher highs are good.
Sustained volume is better.
Structure tells the real story.
#SOL #CryptoBTC VS ETH
$BTC → market direction
$ETH → risk appetite
$SOL → higher-beta activity
When these three start moving together, market participation becomes much easier to read.
Watch the rotation.
#BTC #ETH #SOLCalifornia sued the government, claiming that federal funds were weaponized for partisan retaliation, with clean energy grants being directly cut. It sounds like political news, but essentially it's a repricing of liquidity expectations.
Last night, PCE came in below expectations, and BTC instantly surged to 85,598, only to give it all back to 83,600 within 20 minutes. On-chain, 1.39 million BTC are stuck in the 84,000-86,500 range, with 760,000 chips above 85,000 all becoming trapped positions. The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.28%, and risk assets are being firmly suppressed.
Interestingly, funds have quietly switched battlegrounds: QNT saw a record high of 645 whale transactions over $100,000 in a single day, and the altcoin's spot volume is already four times that of Bitcoin. Money dares not roam recklessly; smart money is already seeking safe havens. Are you heavily invested in BTC or watching QNT? $BTC $MOVRPosition at the $150 million level returns to the key observation zone
Latest holdings data from Brother Maji show the total account exposure has expanded to about $150 million. The biggest change this time is not the position size, but that some previously pressured positions are rapidly recovering.
BTC: 369 coins
40X full position, average price 83,799.60, currently floating profit about 53,100 U. The liquidation price is 70,930.78; BTC remains an important base position in the entire portfolio.
ETH: 35,000 coins
25X full position, cost 2,675.61, current floating profit about 158,000 U. At present, ETH is still the most obvious source of profit in the account.
HYPE: 206,000 coins
10X full position, currently a loss of about 136,200 U. It is worth noting that this position previously lost more than 800,000 U, but now the loss has significantly narrowed, and the position has not been obviously withdrawn.
From this change, the biggest focus of the account has shifted from "huge floating losses" to position recovery and subsequent price support.
Next, focus on whether BTC and ETH can continue to hold steady, and whether HYPE can complete the final stage of loss recovery.
⚠️ Data is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. Over the past few years, Filecoin has continuously built a massive decentralized storage capacity. The core proposition for the next stage of network development is to find truly commercially valuable application scenarios. The trillion-scale wave of RWA tokenization is one of the most promising tracks. The future of RWA is not necessarily to put all legal documents on-chain. A more feasible path is that each on-chain tokenized asset can establish a cryptographically verifiable binding relationship with off-chain original evidence. As massive real-world assets gradually migrate on-chain, the market will always ask the same fundamental financial question: where is the evidence supporting the asset? Filecoin hopes to be one of the answers to this question.It seems I still need to trade with small positions and high leverage in separate accounts.
Starting from September 1st
80u challenge to 1000u
30 days have passed
Now the asset is 435u
Reviewing the trades, I found the drawdowns were too severe. I think what I need to do next is to reduce leverage, still focusing on US stocks and stablecoins. Wishing everyone who liked this great wealth and fortune rolling in $GOOGL $NVDA $AMZN 美光刚刚交出了一份“无可挑剔”的财报。 2026财年第四财季，经调整营收542.3亿美元，同比增长379%；调整后EPS 33.42美元，远超市场预期的31.61美元。核心数据中心业务同比暴增11倍，达到180亿美元。 下一财季的指引更是“炸裂”：预计营收615亿美元，而分析师平均预期只有570亿；预计EPS 38.15美元，预期36.02美元。 每一个数字都在超预期。然后，股价盘后一度涨2%，随后转跌，最终微跌。 为什么“炸裂”换不来“上涨”？ 原因不在需求端，在毛利率。 美光警告：2027财年第一季度的毛利率将小幅下滑至86.3%，低于市场预期的86.7%。CFO马克·墨菲在电话会上亲口承认，原因是给员工加薪了——“我们决定增加激励性薪酬”。 一个史上最强的存储周期，被一笔“员工奖金”抹掉了涨幅。 真正的信号藏在预期差里 美光股价今年以来累计上涨约273%，是费城半导体指数中表现最好的成分股。上一次财报公布后，盘后涨幅超过13%；这一次，几乎为零。 市场已经把“AI存储超级周期”完全定价进去了。 Zacks数据显示，分析师对美光本季度的盈利增长预期高达+938%，营收增长+349.From the current information and patterns of BTC and ETH, the outlook is bullish! But why am I shorting?! Because first, the sharp rise has made the trend unhealthy and a pullback is inevitable! Additionally, the pressure caused by the new highs in U.S. Treasury yields adds to this. However, based on yesterday's PCE data showing inflation below expectations, the market's expectation for further rate hikes in October has decreased, which supports risk assets including BTC and ETH. But! We still need to note that while rate hike panic has eased, the high interest rate environment is not over yet. This is one of the reasons why prices were pushed up yesterday but then suppressed again.
Currently, BTC has strong support around 82,000 and ETH has strong support at 2,600; if these levels break, I will continue to be bearish.
The resistance for BTC is whether it can hold above 85,000 and for ETH whether it can hold around 2,700; if these hold, I will close my positions to secure some profit. Small account, stable profits are simple
53 days, 3 times, all real trading
How much longer do you think it will take to reach 10 times?
The reason for going long is that Micron's earnings yesterday exceeded expectations, which actually indicates that AI-related demand has consistently been above expectations. Plus, the Nasdaq rose last night, while the Korean stock market fell yesterday. It will definitely follow the rise at today's opening, so I went long.⚡ $ZETA Smart Money is heavily long
Longs hold $2.64M, more than 3x the $779K in shorts.
🟢 Longs are sitting on +$207K, with 63.3% profitable, while shorts are down -$34.9K with only 21.2% profitable.
🌊 Fresh flow slightly favors sellers: $42.2K selling vs $32.4K buying in the last 30 minutes.
$ZETA is already up 5.6%. Longs clearly control the bigger picture, but fresh selling may slow the move short term.🔥"The Big Three in the Office: $BTC Slacking Off, $ETH Writing PPTs, $SOL Dancing in the Break Room"
Bringing today's market scene into the office building, the imagery is vivid👇
🟠 Bitcoin $BTC: At the window desk, feet propped on the drawer. Price stuck at 83,700, unmoving, fluctuating only 0.2% all day. On the desk is a certificate for "Spot ETF net inflows for 9 consecutive days," but he just replies, "What's the rush? I'm waiting for the quarterly report." A typical veteran employee, no hustle, no fuss, salary still paid, and the newbies all have to watch his mood.
🟣 Ethereum $ETH: Frantically typing in the cubicle. RWA plans, L2 schedules, staking reports all being revised, price stuck at 2686 like a PPT stuck on its 8th revision without approval. Yesterday, the ETF saw a slight net outflow of a few million, like the boss said, "Just hold on to it for now." Fundamentals maxed out, the candlestick looks like an intern, holding back a "I'll get promoted sooner or later" energy.
🟢 $SOL: The one in the break room. Bouncing around $118, poked at 117 then pulled up to 122, sipping Americano while doing squats. On-chain TVL up, DEX volume up, ETF also attracted funds, but the body is like a spring, bouncing up after sitting in a chair for more than 3 minutes and knocking over the water cup.This sharp surge pushed the 15-minute RSI above 85, with Bitcoin stubbornly capped around 84300. Chasing longs now has a terrible risk-reward ratio, and trying to catch the top early often leads to being slapped by momentum. Feeling itchy, I closed my laptop and will first see if it can hold steady.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI In the past 7 days, there have been 14 unlocks, and the pattern is already very clear. The opportunity mainly does not lie in "betting on the direction on the unlock day," but rather in whether the pricing before the unlock has been completed.
Core pattern (BTC was almost flat during the same period, so this is the behavior of the coin itself):
Those that surged in the 7 days before the unlock mostly retrace after the unlock (sell the unlock / sell the news).
Those that were already hammered down before the unlock are more likely to rebound after the unlock (sell off then buy back).
There is often a pulse in the last 24 hours (D-1), but don’t mistake it for trend confirmation.
Typical cases
High then low: XPL (before +26% / after -13%, circulating ratio 63%), CARDS (+28% / -11%), STBL, SOSO, ALT.
Low then high: H (before -26% / after +5%), FF (-7% / +8%), ZORA, GUN.
Exception: GRASS surged +76% before and still rose after, so this is not a hard rule.
Where the opportunity lies
High circulating ratio + big surge in the 7 days before: prioritize as a "sell window," rather than chasing the unlock rally. XPL is the most typical example of this scale.
Obvious hammering down in the 7 days before and not an exaggerated ratio: more like "bad news already priced in," so repair is likely after unlock.
Don’t just look at the "unlock day": the real pricing window is often from D-7 to D-1, especially the bullish candle on D-1 which is most likely deceptive. Big Brother Maji's portfolio has been updated again, with an exposure reaching 150 million USD, and three orders have rarely all turned positive together.
Compared to a few days ago, the situation has clearly improved.
$BTC is fully leveraged 40x with 369 coins, holding more than last time. Entry price at 83,799.60, unrealized profit +53,100 USD, liquidation price 70,930.78, the cushion is thick enough, the role as ballast stone remains unchanged. Maintaining such a safe distance with 40x leverage shows that position management has been consistently on point.
$ETH is fully leveraged 25x with 35,000 coins, showing a book profit of +158,000 USD, cost at 2,675.61, steady above the cost line. As long as Ethereum doesn't crash too deeply, this momentum will hold. ETH remains the main profit driver in the entire set of positions.
$HYPE holds 10x leverage with 206,000 coins, still at a loss of -136,200 USD, much shallower than the earlier deficit of over 800,000. The chips haven't been cut, and some positions were added waiting for a rebound. The losses are sharp, but the rebound is also quick, characteristic of its nature.
The three positions have gone from each worrying individually to all turning green together, relying entirely on holding through.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Current $BTC market analysis: After a surge to 85639 last night followed by a pullback, it has now reclaimed the key support/resistance line at 84200. The 4-hour chart shows a bottoming and recovery pattern. The volume during this rebound is noticeably lower compared to the big bullish candle that pushed to 85600, indicating a passive recovery.
The 24-hour total trading volume has dropped to 683.6 billion, down 20.87% year-over-year. Overall funds are in a wait-and-see mode, not actively adding positions.
Market flow is almost evenly split with 199 assets up and 200 down, showing no clear broad rally or decline. The profit-taking effect is very fragmented, with altcoins rotating quickly but lacking sustainability. Tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls report is the real variable. Large funds are still watching patiently, waiting for a breakout to provide clearer signals.The number 85,500 looks like a new high at first glance, but at second glance, it seems to have been pushed back down.
PCE data came in below expectations, and the market's first reaction was excitement — less pressure for rate hikes, so money dares to flow into risk assets. This logic is sound; short-term traders are thinking this way.
But what really holds the price back is another figure: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, and the 30-year yield has even touched the highest level since 2002.
Simply put, money has safer places to go, so there's no need to rush into the crypto space.
That's why this surge was sharp, and the pullback was quick. It's not a problem with the coins themselves; there's a stronger magnet for capital outside.
Other coins are similar; HYPE rose 3%, the strongest, DOGE followed with 2%, ETH and BNB barely moved, and SOL even dropped 1%.
My view: short-term is more sideways; don't treat the PCE as the starting gun for a big market move.
What you should be watching now isn't the coin prices, but when US Treasury yields will start to go down.
What do you think, if yields don't come down, how long can this rally last?
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $HYPE $ENA
This ID's viewpoint:
Entry: Wait for a minor-level pullback to form a bullish divergence + bottom fractal, then buy near the central pivot ZD; after a volume breakout above ZG, if the price retests without breaking below ZG, consider a third buy opportunity.
Stop loss: Place defense below the central pivot ZD; if ZD is breached, the current consolidation repair structure fails.
Chan Theory structure:
The purple box represents the consolidation pivot at this level, with ZG≈0.282 and ZD≈0.260. The market dropped sharply from 0.29471 down to 0.24308 where it found support and rebounded into a consolidation pivot. As long as the 0.24308 low holds, there is still a chance for a counterattack; only by stabilizing above ZG can there be an opportunity to challenge the previous high of 0.29471 again. If 0.24308 is lost, the downtrend will continue.
Wyckoff volume-price observation:
During the prior downtrend, there were continuous high-volume bearish candles, indicating strong selling pressure. At the 0.24308 low, capital stepped in to absorb the selling pressure. The rebound saw a brief volume surge, but subsequent incremental funds failed to follow, causing volume to quickly fade and price to retreat. Within the pivot, there is a tug-of-war with overall volume contraction; bulls and bears are exchanging chips here without unilateral accumulation or distribution.
Key observation points:
ENA is stuck grinding repeatedly within the 30-minute box, with 0.29471 as a significant short-term resistance mountain. This is a repair phase after the decline; do not rush to chase the rebound, patiently wait for a minor-level bullish divergence signal before taking action. 🚨🚨🚨 October is the strongest month for Bitcoin gains; do not lightly short at support levels ⚠️⚠️⚠️
On October 1, according to Coinglass data, out of 13 "October" periods in Bitcoin's history from 2013 to 2025, there were 10 months with gains and 3 months with losses. The largest gain occurred in October 2013, with a monthly increase of 60.79%; the largest loss occurred in October 2014, with a monthly decline of 12.95%.
From 2013 to now, Bitcoin's average return in "October" is about 18.52%, with a median return of 12.73%
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Following a strong move to its local high around $0.112, $ESP is currently consolidating sideways around $0.1105 on the 15m timeframe, accompanied by a sharp drop in trading volume. Higher timeframe structure (4H) remains in a solid uptrend.
📊 LONG SETUP
– Entry Zone: $0.1040 – $0.1060
– Stop Loss: $0.1015
– Targets: $0.1105 | $0.1120+
⚠️ DO NOT PLACE LIMIT BUY ORDERS. If price dumps to $0.106 on heavy red volume, wait for volume exhaustion or a reversal candle before entering.$ETH: Everyone is watching $BTC, but it hasn't been idle itself, giving off 🔥🔥
ETH is stuck at 2713, with a daily range of 2658‑2738. The price is like a meditating monk, but the contract side is surging beneath the surface—price calm, trading nonstop; this contrast is the most interesting.
Technicals: 15-minute MACD golden cross bullish, momentum still there; but KDJ has hit a high level (J 104), overbought warning right on the doorstep—can rise, but not to chase, better to wait for a pullback to enter safely.
Big picture, firmly bullish, unshakable. With PCE down to 3.0% and no economic recession, the "Goldilocks" scenario has laid out the upward path, and ETH as this infrastructure giant has no reason to be absent.
Today reaching 2800? Honestly, unlikely.
First, it must break through 2750 with volume—only then does 2800 come into range; from 2713 to 2800 is a 3.2% jump, not likely to happen all in one day.
The realistic script: volume breakout above 2750 → rally to test highs → 2800 reserved for later.
In short: bullishness won't stop you, but don't treat "2800 today" as a vow—once that phrase is out, the dog traders laugh, and those chasing highs will be on watch. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $DOGE To prove your private key hasn't been stolen,
you have to hand it over once again.
This is not a joke.
This is a new Bitcoin proposal requirement.
It's called BIP461.
Author: Liam Gilligan.
Merged on September 16, still in Draft status.
In one sentence, what it wants to do:
Set a standard answer for signatures; if someone answers differently, there might be something fishy.
Sounds pretty reliable, right?
But first, think about it, how to compare?
For the same transaction,
you have to use another clean device to sign it exactly the same way again.
To have that device sign it,
you have to give it your private key first.
To prove it hasn't been stolen, you have to steal it yourself first.
Isn't this just looking for trouble?
Writing this, I really want to curse.
There's an even darker layer.
In the future, attackers won't even need to modify your firmware.
They just need to make a "signature consistency checking tool," and you bring your private key to them yourself.
The tool is fake, the key is real. Haha, you tell me what kind of mind that is.
And the cost.
The only ones who can really run this comparison are researchers and manufacturers.
Ordinary people only see one sentence: "It is recommended to verify."
Then they comply. No one tells them what this step is actually doing.
There's one more thing no one mentions.
Once signatures are required to
"have the same output for the same input,"
it's no longer just a signature.
It's a fingerprint; your device model, firmware version, operating habits—all can be classified.
These used to be hidden in diversity. ZEC current price is 1438, I'm watching my OKX account, long position floating loss of 8%, only two words in my mind: numb.
Opened position at 1472, at that time I saw it drop from 1697, thought it should rebound after falling more than 200, but I didn't close it, this crazy knife is unreasonable, it slipped down again. At 1438, it has already broken the previous low of 1444, short-term clearly turning weak. I glanced at the order book, buy orders are sparse, sell orders are piled up, volume is not large but price just can't rise, indicating bulls have no strength, bears are slowly grinding.
$ZEC key levels I mark:
Support: 1400-1420, if broken I have to seriously consider reducing position, no emotional attachment.
Resistance: 1480-1520, if it can't rebound past this, it's weak, if given a chance I'll run part of my position first.
My plan: reduce half if it breaks 1400, stop loss below 1380, no catching falling knives. If it can stop falling with shrinking volume near 1420, I might hold a bit more, wait for rebound near 1480 to exit. ZEC is hard to trade both long and short, this time I chased longs recklessly, I accept it.That wave in the late night, probably many people were staring at the order book cursing.
BTC and ETH played the same old trick again: first a fake drop, then a real pull-up, back and forth several times, the price almost returning to the starting point, but the positions changed hands.
BTC suddenly plunged at midnight, looking like it was about to break down, but it didn’t fall much and was pulled back. In 24 hours, liquidations totaled $115 million, with long liquidations at $46.82 million, short liquidations at $68.17 million, the largest single liquidation at $7.56 million, and 7,024 people liquidated, with volatility exceeding 3.48%. ETH’s movement was similar: first smashed then pulled up, liquidations at $69.23 million, longs at $41.27 million, shorts at $27.96 million, largest single liquidation at $4.73 million, 4,386 people out, volatility over 3.19%.
The familiar formula, sweeping up and down. When you think it’s breaking down and chase shorts, it pulls you back; when you think it’s stabilizing and chase longs, it smashes you down again. The price barely moved, but accounts moved first.
But looking at the big picture, the upward trend of BTC and ETH hasn’t broken yet. Sharp drops and slow rises are normal shakeouts in a bullish market. The liquidation data shows that leverage in the market is still hot; a shake clears some positions, making it lighter afterward.
The late-night spike is a cure for stubbornness. Leaving room in your position prevents being wiped out by a single line.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ZEC is moving like a coiled spring—sweeping both sides without giving bulls or bears a clean breakout. 👀 Grayscale remains constructive, noting ZEC’s market-cap share vs.$BTC has grown from under 0.1% to ~1.5%, with further potential if its privacy advantage holds. Meanwhile, the NU7 upgrade is approaching, with testnet activity expected soon and the mainnet targeted for November 5. Price has cooled below $1,500 toward ~$1,400, down ~12% over the past week, while RSI has eased to ~53. On-chaBrothers, this market really makes people laugh😂
$ETH dropped from around 2800 and has been fluctuating around 2700, repeatedly testing 2750 but never effectively breaking through.
There are only two directions next:
Either a volume breakout above 2750, with a big bullish candle shooting straight to 3000;
Or the resistance remains unbroken, funds loosen, and the price turns downward.
Standing at 2700, I personally prefer to guard against a pullback first.
It's not that ETH must fall, but after continuously testing resistance without holding, there’s no strong breakout signal in the short term.
I used to think buying meant hope.
Now I realize this hope is like wild grass on the ground, with the wind blowing, it all withers away.
Since we’re already in this game, we can only silently endure.
Enough, enough.
The money lost was probably taken by the market and used elsewhere😂
So my approach is simple: watch resistance on rebounds, short when given the chance, don’t chase the rally.
Of course, if you think I’m wrong, you can totally do the opposite.
If you’re bullish, just go long.
If ETH really breaks 2750 and rushes to 3000, show off your longs and mock me hard, I’ll admit it.
In the end, the market doesn’t care who talks tough, but who actually keeps money in real trades.
If you really think I’m wrong, use real money to be my opponent and make money off me, I respect that.
The market won’t fall just because I’m bearish, nor will it rise just because you’re bullish.
Don’t get carried away, don’t overleverage, if the direction is wrong there’s still a chance, but losing control of position size is truly painful. ETF flows are still supporting the market, but the pace has slowed.
Recent data showed BTC ETF inflows around $31M and $ETH ETH around $17M, after much larger previous sessions.
Capital is still coming in.
But traders are watching whether demand accelerates or fades.Markets move fast, but discipline keeps you in the game.
Yesterday I shorted $BTC around 85K–85.4K with 10x leverage and closed near 83.6K. Took the profit and walked away—no greed, no chasing.
Big leverage can multiply gains, but it can destroy an account just as quickly. I’d rather grow steadily and survive longer. 🐱
Today: watching $PONS with a cautious short bias.#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #IranUSDealStandoff #TokenizedStocksOnAave Crypto isn't moving in isolation.
U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year yield recently reaching levels not seen since 2007.
That keeps pressure on risk assets.
For $BTC, liquidity and yields remain important signals.$SOL and $ZEC are showing relative strength while BTC consolidates.
That's worth watching.
If BTC holds its range and altcoin volume continues expanding, capital rotation could become more visible.
If volume disappears, the move may simply be temporary.$BTC doesn't need another vertical candle.
The market already pushed toward $87K.
Now the real test is whether buyers can defend lower levels and rebuild momentum.
Higher lows > random pumps.
Confirmation > FOMO.$CORE
This tweet is a textbook example of a "soft exit" and "crisis management" by the project team amid mass node withdrawals, frequent frontend crashes, and exchange delistings.
"Another step towards decentralization"
Project team's narrative: "Gradually handing over the remaining block production roles to independent validators... marking a new chapter for Core, driven by independent operators."
The harsh truth: This is a typical beautification of a "massive node collapse."
Previously, you witnessed the staking webpage showing 503 errors and the number of nodes sharply dropping from dozens. The so-called "handover to independent validators" is actually because official nodes are unprofitable and are withdrawing en masse (soft exit). They are unwilling to bear the server costs to maintain the network themselves, so they are passing this burden to the so-called "independent operators." If no independent nodes are willing to take over in the future, this chain will completely halt. The so-called "new chapter of decentralization" is essentially the project team shedding responsibility and preparing to fully withdraw. #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved. As a spot player, it's most frustrating that PCE benefits can't push prices up. The real valuation anchor suppressing BTC is the 10-year Treasury at 5.3% and the 30-year above 5.6%. Short-term rate hike expectations have cooled, offset by persistently high long-term rates, so BTC pulled back after surging to 85,500.
There are three specific impacts: First, opportunity cost skyrockets, with risk-free US Treasury yields over 5%, holding spot means giving up guaranteed returns, large funds are reluctant to enter, so prices can only fluctuate within a range; second, benefits become dulled, any macro positive only triggers a pulse rebound, chasing highs easily leads to being trapped; third, credit risk rises, CCC-rated corporate bond spreads exceed 1000 basis points, if a corporate default triggers a liquidity crisis, BTC may be sold off first.
In terms of strategy: cash is king, don't FOMO; reduce positions on rallies triggered by positive news, don't chase with full positions; patiently wait for confirmation that the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked, then invest in batches. Surviving is more important than making quick money. $SOL ZBCN intraday amplitude exceeds 20%, yet the 24-hour price change is close to zero.
As of 13:06 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.002772, with a 24-hour high of $0.0029364 and a low of $0.0024334, and a trading volume of approximately $1.336 million. The current price is about 5.6% below the high and about 13.9% above the low.
More notably, this trading volume is about 2.5 times the median of the previous 7 full calendar days; however, OKEx currently only has spot trading, with no corresponding perpetual contracts available for cross-verification of open interest and funding rates.
My judgment is that this is not a clear one-sided continuation, but more like a directional contest after volume-driven turnover. The easiest misjudgment is to interpret the near-zero 24-hour price change as the end of volatility; conversely, increased volume does not automatically mean a new round of upward movement.
Next, pay attention to $0.0029364 and $0.00265. If volume increases and the price breaks above the previous high, the high turnover may turn into an effective breakout; if it falls back below $0.00265 and volume continues to expand, it indicates a higher risk of loosening chips.
$ZBCN BTC Investment Monthly Report | September 2026 (Exclusive for Long-term HODLers · Major Cycle Analysis) Risk Warning: The following content is only a popular science summary of on-chain data and major cycle logic, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading is highly volatile and not legally protected domestically; all operations strictly follow personal trading systems and risk tolerance. I. Core Summary of This Month Currently, BTC is at the late stage of bear market recovery and the initial stage of bull market launch. It has completely exited the bear market bottom range but has not yet entered the mid-stage of the bull market; valuation shows no bubble. Personal position status: fully invested with 100% base holdings maintained unchanged; no reduction or adjustment this month. No need to predict short-term price fluctuations; continue to hold long-term waiting for the bull market cycle to heat up, maintaining weekly indicator tracking and monthly reviews. Core qualitative assessment: the major cycle bottom structure is solidified, and the bullish trend is initially established; the high-level oscillation this month is a normal shakeout in the early bull market, and short-term volatility does not change the long-term holding logic. II. Key Indicator Data This Month (Weekly Level · Major Cycle Caliber) Statistics Period: 2026.09.01 — 2026.09.30 1. CBBI Bull Market Index: 49, neutral range, not entering bull market bubble zone (threshold ≥90 is bull market top warning zone) 2. MVRV Z-Score: 1.02, neutral valuation, far from historical bull market top overvaluation zone (≥5) 3. RHODL Ratio: 1089, long-term holder coin lock-up status is good, far from historical bull marketCore PCE came in below expectations, Bitcoin briefly surged past 85,000, but rising bond yields and oil prices pressured risk assets, combined with the situation in Iran, causing the price to fall back below 84,000. ETF net inflows continued but narrowed in a single day; institutional support remains, with short-term sentiment leaning defensive.
I just opened my thermos and took a sip of cool water, continuing to watch the market.
LYN current price is 0.0248. RSI is under pressure, MACD shows a death cross, and bearish momentum is strengthening. A large amount of long liquidation is stacked between 0.0243 and 0.0250, creating downward pull on the price. This is not a suitable position to go long.
In terms of operations, focus on short positions. Enter in batches between 0.0248 and 0.0251, take profit first target at 0.0243, second target at 0.0236. Set stop loss at 0.0256; if broken, admit the mistake and exit. If 0.0243 breaks down with volume, lightly add shorts targeting 0.0228.
Avoid long positions for now; wait for liquidation to clear and see if there are signs of stabilization. Control position size, do not overleverage.
$LYN
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
@OKX星球 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days totaling approximately $3.08 billion, but daily inflows have dropped from a peak near $1 billion to $66.19 million, showing a clear slowdown in marginal momentum; Ethereum ETFs shifted to small net outflows after 7 consecutive days of inflows, indicating a short-term divergence in capital flows between the two.
This divergence reflects selective allocation by institutional funds amid macro uncertainty: BTC benefits from the "digital gold" narrative and a more mature ETF ecosystem, receiving support at the low range of $83,000 to $84,000; ETH, lacking short-term independent catalysts, is more prone to being reduced when risk appetite contracts.
The current core contradiction remains the tug-of-war between high long-term US Treasury yields and delayed rate hike expectations. Before the non-farm payroll data release, funds tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, so the slowdown in inflows is normal. If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, BTC is likely to regain accelerated inflows, and ETH may also rebound; if the data is strong, both may face outflow pressure. Overall, the institutional support logic for BTC remains intact, but it is not advisable to chase highs in the short term; ETH needs to wait for ecosystem catalysts or a return of capital rotation.Seeing the US and Iran negotiating again, many people in the group are closely watching the news from the Middle East, worried that a sudden conflict might crash the market.
Having been in this circle for so many years, I've noticed a pattern: whenever there's geopolitical news like this, the market usually reacts most strongly right when the news breaks, but by the time everyone really understands what's going on, the move is basically over.
Many times before, when tensions in the Middle East rose, BTC would surge alongside gold, but within a few days, once negotiations made progress, everything would fall back, and those who chased the highs often got slapped around.
Personally, when I see such major international news now, I don't rush to act; I wait for the market sentiment to fully release. Most of those who rush in full position right after seeing the news end up being the ones left holding the bag.
In my opinion, international geopolitical news is inherently unpredictable—no one can say for sure if the next moment will bring a deal or another conflict. We just have to take it step by step. Everyone can pay more attention to whether the market truly trends after such news or just pulses briefly, and not get led by a few big green candles. Share your thoughts in the comments.
$BTC
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 US stocks $CRCL and $COIN have been fluctuating back and forth, and it's time to recharge faith again.
I mentioned CRCL before: you can build positions in batches below 50. It dropped as low as 49.9, then rebounded to 135, doubling in a month. Now the price has fallen back, and many people are starting to be bearish again, but my view on CRCL and COIN hasn't changed: one is a stablecoin concept stock, the other is a crypto exchange concept stock, both still worth focusing on in a bear market.
So how to choose bottom-fishing in a bear market?
CRCL is a high-growth small-cap stock, with the advantage of small market cap and high elasticity. As stablecoins continue to expand, its growth potential is huge. The market is currently worried whether USDC's market share can meet expectations, but as a compliant stablecoin, its long-term expansion logic still exists.
COIN is the exchange's money printer, with stable business and strong cash flow, plus income from CRCL dividends, but its market cap is already large, so its elasticity is naturally less than CRCL.
So my allocation is: 40% CRCL, 60% COIN.
CRCL is responsible for elasticity, COIN for certainty.
CRCL is a bet on the future, COIN is buying the present, and the combination is just right.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Help!!! Where's the promised profit? Why am I red on both sides again???
I thought today would be my turnaround, but those two short positions of mine are perfectly red, as if mocking me!
$SNDK I opened a short at 1779, and now it's stuck at 1779, not earning a cent, and I'm even paying fees!
I heard the company's boss secretly sold tens of millions of dollars worth of stock and ran away, so I thought this was a sure thing and quickly opened a short. But then?
The company turned around and said it would spend over ten billion dollars buying back its own stock, stubbornly propping up the price!
The boss runs away, the company defends the price, it's a battle of gods, and I'm just a retail investor caught in the crossfire!
I shorted ZEC at 1400, but it soared all the way to 1437, making me lose so much it hurts!
A few days ago, I heard a big player smashed the market, made tens of millions, and ran, so I hurriedly followed the short.
But today I heard that a big player quietly bought tens of thousands of ZEC with millions of dollars in cash over a month!
The big player is smashing and buying at the same time, and I'm like a fool getting slapped from both sides!
Sigh, my title as the "Leek War God" is well deserved. Buying at the peak, shorting at the bottom, whenever I make a move, the dog whales laugh.
$BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出