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#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
📉SNDK, I’m still the one sticking to a bearish view
The recent trend of SanDisk has been a meat grinder for bulls and bears.
Bulls talk about AI long positions, ultra-high gross margins, and massive buybacks;
I only focus on one thing: NAND is a cyclical commodity, not an AI growth stock.
My three logics haven’t changed:
1. The current high profits rely entirely on flash price hikes, not shipment surges;
2. The crazier the price rise → the more competitors expand production → price collapse, this is the fate written into the storage industry’s script;
3. The stock price has long priced in the most optimistic scenario; once guidance weakens marginally, it’s a valuation kill.
The process is indeed agonizing.
When the short squeeze was at its worst, the unrealized losses were huge, and it felt like the entire market was against me.
Many shorts couldn’t hold on and stopped out halfway through the rebound.
I held on.
Now with the market pullback, the short position has turned from unrealized loss to unrealized gain; the hardest part is over.
But I’m very clear: this is only a phase victory, not the end.
This week’s Fed meeting is a big variable—if rate hike expectations rise again, cyclical stocks will be under pressure; if it turns dovish, another short squeeze could come at any time.
Add to that NAND spot prices, major manufacturers’ expansion statements, and cloud vendors’ capital expenditures—all hanging in the balance.
Holding positions is not worth mindless imitation; this time profit comes from judgment, position management, and some luck.
In reality, more holding leads to liquidation.
I still see the direction as bearish but will strictly exit according to my plan,
no greed, no fighting to the end. On Sunday in Ireland, Trump told reporters: the US "should pay the lowest global interest rate," regardless of the Fed's formula; when asked if there would be a rate hike, he replied, "I don't know." The market, however, did not side with him — FedWatch still prices in about an 86%–87% chance of a 25bp rate hike on Wednesday, with the target range pointing to 3.75%–4.00%; the two-year US Treasury yield also capped at about 4.61%.
The crypto market is a bit more obedient: BTC weekly retraced about 5%, once dipping to around 76,700–76,800 before hovering near 77,000. The White House is pushing for a rate cut, pricing bets on a hike; what really matters to watch on Wednesday is the dot plot and the post-meeting tone, not just whether the hike lands #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC $ETH Looking at these three market charts all morning, I was honestly amused with frustration. The current market feels like a patience game—whoever gets anxious first loses.
First, let's talk about $DOGE. I really have to give it to this "dead dog." The daily volatility is only 3.61%, and the price at $0.08397 is dragging on so slowly it makes me want to sleep. But if you look closely at the net capital inflow of $70.2708 million and the trading volume of only $185 million, what does that mean? It means nearly 40% of the funds entering the market haven't pushed the price up. This rhythm couldn't be clearer: there are big players down below with wide-open mouths absorbing the supply, but they just won't lift the price. They have to wear down the patience of those short-term traders and force them to give up their chips. At this stage, frankly, it's a dull bottom-building consolidation, just waiting for a trigger.
Now look at $OKB. The big brother is steady—priced at $113.95, a slight rise of 1.22%, and a net inflow of $8.7495 million against a trading volume of $16.0231 million, which basically means everyone is buying in. Platform tokens now act as a safe haven; big players with nowhere else to put their funds first settle here. This trend lacks explosive power but wins on stability, perfect for those who want to sleep soundly. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics $SOL: Goldman sold. Should you panic? No. Goldman liquidated SOL/XRP ETFs last week. Why? Bearish macro. 5% yields. Tactical move, not a SOL hate trade. Technicals: <100 for 3 days 7d + 14d MA overhead 30d MA 97.5 = last support Fundamentals: SOL ETF: $880M inflows Alpenglow: October still on Plan: Do nothing before Wed. If FOMC clean → reclaim 100-105 → 110 If messy → 97.5 breaks Don’t confuse bank risk management with Solana fundamentals.#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow $BTC $SOL $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | Three forms of power
$BTC’s power comes from trust in the rules.
$ETH’s power comes from what can be built on top of those rules.
$SOL’s power comes from how fast those rules execute.
Bitcoin optimizes for monetary certainty.
Ethereum optimizes for composability.
Solana optimizes for high-speed on-chain activity.
One industry.
Three entirely different answers to this question:
What are blockchains best at?Currently, BTC and ETH, along with the US stock market, are simultaneously entering a correction phase. Many are wondering: before the key news on September 15 and 16 is released, is there still a possibility for the market to continue to dip?
At present, BTC is around $77,000, ETH about $2,510, with the overall market showing weakness. The Senate crypto bill vote is scheduled for September 15, but to pass the bill, 60 votes are needed, and whether this threshold will be met is highly uncertain.
Before the results are out, the market is biased towards a bearish consolidation, with a relatively higher chance of bottoming out. Large-scale chasing of longs is not recommended.
Support levels to watch: BTC at 76,000, ETH at 2,460, ZEC at 1,050; if these levels are broken, we will continue to observe and wait for a new direction.
Trading approach: trade with small positions before the news release, and do not greedily pursue small short-term profits.
If the supports hold, volume expands simultaneously, and BTC reclaims $78,000, the probability of an upward move after the 15th will significantly increase. The current trend direction is unclear, so it is best to wait for the news release before making decisions. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
This strategy clearly organizes macro events, key supports, and scenario-based trading plans, but there are several common cognitive pitfalls:
1. A higher probability of bottoming does not mean the preset supports will definitely be reached.
The levels 76,000, 2,460, and 1,050 are observation points, not guaranteed prices. On the eve of the event, intense capital battles can easily cause wick-like brief touches of support followed by immediate pullbacks—false breakouts. Placing shorts or longs directly at these points risks stop-loss hunting. During the event window, expectations are priced in advance and may not follow the preset levels exactly.
2. The Senate bill vote is an emotional disturbance and unlikely to solely drive the overall market trend.
The vote result will mostly cause short-term impulse moves. The real determinant of BTC and ETH’s major direction remains the FOMC interest rate decision and Federal Reserve statements on the 16th. Do not treat the bill’s uncertainty as the core driver of continued market dips; interest rate expectations are the main theme. Even if the bill vote disappoints, it may soon be overshadowed by rate-driven moves.
3. "Support holds + volume expansion + reclaiming 78K" is the confirmation condition for bulls, but beware of bull traps.
Even if BTC returns to $78,000, it could be a short-term bull trap rebound before the news release. Often, a rebound is pulled before the event, only to reverse again after the decision. Do not rely solely on price and volume to conclude a bullish trend.
4. The bearish consolidation plan lacks a contingency for sudden positive surprises.
This plan assumes bearish consolidation, but if inflation data suddenly weakens or officials release dovish comments, it could quickly trigger short covering and a rapid rebound. Having only a bottoming strategy means it’s easy to be caught off guard by sudden positive news, causing losses on short positions.
Small position trading and waiting for the news release to determine the trend is a reasonable risk control approach. There is great uncertainty before the event, so avoid heavy positions betting on one side, and always set stop losses regardless of direction. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Not necessarily a rate hike.
Even if there is a 25bp hike in September, I don't think now is the time to rush to short BTC.
On the 17th FOMC, the market has already highly priced in a 25bp rate hike, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase turning hawkish one after another.
The reasons are simple:
· Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in August, inflation is still slowing down slowly;
· Oil prices are rising again due to the Middle East situation;
· Plus Warsh leaning hawkish, the market's pricing for a rate hike is heating up quickly.
But here’s the problem:
These negative factors have already been priced in by the market.
Even if there is a 25bp hike, it’s just the rate hike landing → negative news realized → $BTC wide fluctuations.
What’s really worth betting on is what if the Fed ultimately does not hike?
Rate hike expectations reverse → US Treasury yields fall → USD weakens → risk assets repriced.
Then BTC might not fall, but directly undergo a round of expectation reversal.
So my strategy is simple:
Don’t chase shorts, set tight stop losses, try longs with small positions.
Support at 76,000, resistance at 80,000.
Rate hike: expect volatility.
No rate hike: could explode directly.
This FOMC, the real odds are not on betting "rate hike," but on using small stop losses to bet on the "no rate hike" that the market has not fully priced in yet.#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 5% is something the market has already talked to death. What’s really worth watching is the signal from the repo operations—the Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, yet yields keep pushing higher, with the 10-year hitting 4.97% and the 30-year reaching a 19-year high.
This trend indicates one thing: the curve the authorities want to suppress is not accepted by the market. Bassett’s narrative of "growth to pay debt" doesn’t add up numerically against 40 trillion in debt and a 1.9% real growth rate. Oil prices have also broken $100 at this point, and energy inflation has brought rate hike expectations back to the table, with September rate hike pricing once spiking close to 90%.
For the crypto space, the problem isn’t the decline itself, but the "quality" of the decline has changed. If the surge in Treasury yields were driven by strong economic growth, risk assets could hold up; but this time, risk-free rates are rising without matching growth expectations, which is the least favorable combination for Bitcoin.
$BTC is now stuck around 76k, ETF funds are flowing out, the technical golden cross is about to form but the macro environment is dragging it down. Next, it depends on whether CPI gives a breather and how the market reacts to the 5% whole number threshold—whether the fear is real or just pretended.
#美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 @OKX中文 $ETH $ZEC Shorted from 0.2436 to 0.2209, 20x profit 186%. This trade won by recognizing the overextension of positive news.
Although $MET used 88% of its quarterly revenue for secondary market buybacks, Q1 2026 revenue has already dropped by 35%. Buyback funds are unsustainable, and buying support is completely weakened.
Real risk: The protocol still faces legal clouds of insider trading lawsuits and class action suits.
Plus, the quarterly unlocking selling pressure arrived as expected.
I decisively opened a short at the high of 0.2436.
The 0.20 level is the long-short defense line for the future market. During the fundamental downturn, only short, no long. $ZEC $FIL $BZ surged to 103.91 before suddenly plunging; the $100 mark is not easy to break.
Last night, the price once surged to 103.91, but today it fell back to 102.22. When it rises, some sell off; when it falls, others buy in. It's really not that easy to establish a one-sided trend.
Why is this happening? The core reason is that the news is mixed—cooling down on one side, adding fuel on the other.
First, on the bearish side, the Omani Energy Minister signaled that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and that the current rapid rise in oil prices is unsustainable. Once this statement came out, market worries about supply disruptions eased a bit, profit-taking at high levels naturally began, and oil prices fell accordingly.
But the problem is, the geopolitical risk on the other side has not truly disappeared.
The originally scheduled meeting between Iran and Gulf countries was suddenly postponed, indicating that negotiations are not progressing smoothly. As long as this issue is not fully resolved, the market won’t dare to completely remove the risk premium, so there is still support under the oil price.
So the current market is very clear: conflicting news causes prices to fluctuate back and forth.
I’m currently not chasing the middle ground around 102; I’d rather wait for a pullback to the 99-100 area to see if support can hold. If it stabilizes, I might lightly try long positions with a stop loss at 98, and the first target at 103-105.
Crude oil is highly volatile; don’t heavily bet on direction. Hold if support holds, exit if it breaks. #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 Open interest contracts dropped from 320,000 to 270,000, with the price only falling by 5%. Leverage withdrew first, then the price followed.
Outsiders tend to reverse the order. A 13.5% shrinkage in positions denominated in $BTC indicates that the reduction was not forced by the price drop but was a proactive move. The current scale is about 20% lower than before the mid-August rally.
Deleveraging was concentrated before key event announcements and actually stopped declining during the announcement period. A more likely explanation is that some funds chose to exit first and observe, rather than passively respond after the news landed.
The verification point is here: if open interest continues to rise after the event while the price remains unchanged, it indicates only short-term hedging; if both open interest and price weaken simultaneously, then this round of clearing is not over yet.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $BTC It reacts to: Liquidity → Yields → Dollar → Risk appetite → Institutional flows When global liquidity becomes tighter, speculative assets feel it. When financial conditions improve, risk assets can breathe again. That's why sometimes Bitcoin can have a bullish chart… …but still struggle to continue higher. The chart is only one layer. The macro environment is another. The strongest traders don't ask only: “Where is BTC going?” They ask: “What conditions would make BTC move there?” Understand the$BTC I stand on the bulls' side. A 25 basis point rate hike is almost inevitable, but it's no longer news—prices have already been factored in.
FedWatch shows an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, and before Walsh's speech on August 28, the market was still evenly split. During the same period, $BTC rose from 77,846 to 77,600, basically unchanged.
The key to not following the decline is the US dollar. The rate hike hurt the currency's price thanks to a strong dollar, but the dollar index rebounded from 99.70 to 99.35, and this transmission didn't start. The reason is that this rate hike wasn't due to economic overheating, but was driven by oil prices: Brent rose from $89 to $107. The market saw this as a passive response to inflation, not the start of a tightening cycle.
Contract holdings dropped from 8.48 billion to 8.06 billion USD in one week, and the period when 81,270 fell to 76,569 USD, was a premature digestion.
Forecast: 48 hours after the decision is implemented, $BTC hold 76,500 and retest 80,000.
Bearish condition: Walsh hinted at another increase in October, or that the 10-year Treasury yield could close up 5% (now 4.97%).Slowing down AI is not hitting the brakes, it's shifting gears
Sam Altman said he supports slowing down the development of cutting-edge models.
In the same sentence, he confirmed that OpenAI will not go public in 2026.
His exact words were:
Slowing down means prioritizing safety investment over release pace.
The premise of this statement is:
No IPO means no need to report progress in quarterly earnings.
For project developers, who sets the pace is crucial.
Public companies' model iterations must follow earnings reports.
Without going public, you follow your own safety line.
Slowing down does not mean stopping; it means keeping the release rights in your own hands.
Whoever owns the schedule, decides. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics $ETH is too heavy, can it still push on near 2520?
From the market perspective, yesterday at noon and early this morning, ETH showed a quite obvious large V-shaped movement, with the price repeatedly pulled up and down, and the bulls and bears battling fiercely. Especially after two probes down to around 2460, the price quickly rebounded, indicating strong support below this level.
Combining this with the liquidation map, currently the 2447–2467 range has accumulated a lot of large long positions, with about 360 million long liquidation pressure near 2455. Simply put, although there is capital support below, the long positions are quite crowded, making the body too heavy. The market will face some pressure if it wants to continue pushing upward.
Lei Ge's short-term trading strategy is still mainly shorting, entering at the current price of 2520, with a target around 2475 #Hormuz ships attacked again, regional talks postponed 🌊 IS GLOBAL LIQUIDITY THE MOST IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF $BTC? Crypto traders look at a lot of things. RSI. MACD. EMA. Funding. Open Interest. Liquidation heatmap. Whale wallet. ETF flow. It's all valuable. But if I had to pick one thing that stands above the majority of those signals... I'd choose: LIQUIDITY. Because in the end... without enough new money entering the market, it's very unlikely that there will be a sustained bullish wave. Bitcoin can have a very strong narrative. ETFs. Halving. Institutional adoption. Digital gold. Scar$SOL Didn't take action, no analysis, just relying on luck, I feel embarrassed even saying this performance.
Last night at dawn I was watching the market, SOL ground all night, the bottom just wouldn't break, and the volume kept shrinking. Clearly someone was buying below, I judged this position wouldn't really fall, so I gradually bought some on the pullback to open a long.
As a result, this morning I woke up to the price going straight from 100.50 to 101.65, now +114.42%. This move really didn't give much reaction time 🚀 Those who got on board basically woke up smiling.
I took profits on 75% of my position first, moving the stop loss on the remaining 25% near the cost price to protect it. Took the big chunk off the table first, let the rest run with the market, exit if it breaks, hold if it doesn't.
Being out of position isn't a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake. No matter how much unrealized profit, it's the market's until you take it away.
Now is not the time to rush. If you haven't gotten on board, don't get impatient, there will be more comfortable positions later, wait for the next signal to move.
$LAB $DOGE $USELESS 10 times the courage, exchanged for 73% lessons.
Speculation has no luck.#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近
特朗普居然妥协了。
最新消息，他在CLARITY法案的伦理条款上让步了。
简单捋一下。9月15号，也就是明天，参议院要搞程序性投票。这票不是最终表决，但需要拿到60票才能继续往下走。共和党只有53席，意味着至少还得挖7个民主党人的票。之前卡壳卡得死死的，就是因为伦理条款，民主党非要限制总统和官员在加密里捞钱，特朗普自己的生意摆在那，根本没法谈。
现在他退了一步，接受了80%，这绝对是关键性的一步。如果明天能过，后面监管确定性就会落地，SEC和CFTC的分工、代币分类都会清晰很多，这对整个行业来说是极大利好。
但是！
我低头看了一眼自己那个80,619开的$BTC 多单。就算明天法案过了，也是长期的利好，救不了眼前的火。市场现在满脑子都是9月17号的FOMC，加息概率被干到了90%以上。
法案是好法案，但我现在的命，捏在沃什手里。
明天先看投票结果，再熬两天看美联储。希望能双喜临门，让我这个多单也喘口气。 The bears' concern for Dogecoin surpasses that of the bulls.
Every day when they open their eyes, the first to arrive in the comment section are always them. Opening their homepage, the headline in seven big characters reads: "Dogecoin will soon hit zero," like a countdown to a memorial day, updated daily, more punctual than market software. While the bulls are busy watching K-lines and calculating positions, the bears are busy counting chips for others—when your coins will drop, when they won't, they care more than you do.
The irony lies here: a person who watches $DOGE, which they don't favor, every day, posting, commenting, setting alarms, is essentially heavily invested. Not in position size, but in attention. The most expensive thing in the market has never been the coin, but time and emotion, and the bears have staked both entirely on Dogecoin.
Then the market doesn't cooperate. $DOGE price goes up, but they keep posting, keep reciting the countdown, pushing the date back by a day. Watching them, you can't really get angry, but you do feel a bit of sympathy—hoping for something to happen, waiting so long, and it just doesn't happen, that kind of life is tough.
The bulls hold coins, the bears hold a wish. Coins go up and down, but when the wish fails, all that's left is awkwardness. Holding short positions for almost a month now, how's it going?
Unfortunately, I'm still stuck.
The $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC shorts opened on August 22, originally hoping for a big pullback, but instead, they climbed from mid-mountain all the way to the peak.
The ridiculous part is ZEC, shorted at 799, yet it kept hitting new highs. HYPE was also shorted around 77, and it's still holding strong.
Almost a month has passed, and all that's left is my stubbornness.
My biggest takeaway this month isn't how much I lost, but a renewed understanding: never underestimate the short squeeze power of a bull market, and never treat your own judgment as the market's answer.
Since it hasn't exploded yet, I'll keep watching.
Of course, whether I get the big bearish candle I want is up to the market.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq #TrumpAcceptsNewEthics Wednesday is the one that matters. FOMC decision at 2pm ET, and markets are pricing a hike to 3.75-4.00% after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech
Everyone's focused on the number. I think the dot plot matters more. A hike that's already priced changes little. A dot plot signalling more hikes into next year is what would actually hurt.
$BTC 77.8K and $ETH 2,520 are my lines. Below those, the reaction is real. Above, it's noise.
Positioned or flat into Wednesday?
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | Three forms of power
$BTC’s power comes from trust in the rules.
$ETH’s power comes from what can be built upon those rules.
$SOL’s power comes from how fast those rules execute.
Bitcoin optimizes for monetary certainty.
Ethereum optimizes for composability.
Solana optimizes for high-speed on-chain activity.
One industry.
Three completely different answers to the question:
What should blockchains be best at?🔥 The final text of the CLARITY Act has been released. Will it gather 60 votes tomorrow?
The U.S. Senate Republicans today unveiled the latest final version of the CLARITY Act, incorporating multiple amendments previously proposed by the Democrats, especially compromises on controversial issues such as conflicts of interest for politicians, stablecoin risks, developer protections, and state-level regulatory authority. (The Block)
But the real key question is:
On September 15, will they get 60 votes?
The Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning they need support from at least 7 Democratic/independent senators.
⚠️ Note:
60 votes ≠ official passage of the CLARITY Act.
Tomorrow’s vote is first a procedural vote; only if it passes does the bill move into formal consideration, debate, and subsequent amendment stages. (crypto.news)
So what’s really at stake tomorrow is not "the bill has passed," but:
👉 Whether the U.S. crypto regulatory framework can officially enter its final sprint.
If 60 votes succeed:
🇺🇸 Regulatory uncertainty decreases
🏦 Institutional capital expectations strengthen
💰 Crypto asset valuation logic may be repriced
If it fails:
The first thing to trade in the short term will likely be a resurgence of regulatory uncertainty.
September 15 is the first gate of 60 votes.
The real big market move may still be ahead.
What are your thoughts on BTC and ETH?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $SOL Honestly, my feelings about SOL are a deep love mixed with harsh criticism. The meme craze on-chain comes in waves; the transaction fees and active address data look good, but in a macro trash time like September, with the market barely breathing, high traffic doesn’t mean weak dumping pressure. During this overall wait-and-see period, capital doesn’t care about ecosystem prosperity—it only cares about cash flow and the Fed’s mood.
1. The double-edged sword of high beta: When the market moves even slightly, SOL’s price swings up and down are especially intense. Early trading may slightly recover or fluctuate with the market, but the battlefield of bulls and bears leaves wreckage everywhere. Anyone opening contracts without stop-losses is very likely to be shaken out by sharp spikes.
2. Meme and liquidity fatigue: Fewer people are stirring things up on-chain, attention is diverted, and without a strong new narrative to support a breakout, high-liquidity public chain tokens often become the first cash-out machines.
If you hold spot, just stake it to earn some interest and out of sight, out of mind—it’s definitely healthier than torturing yourself watching that fluctuating number. As for chasing breakouts or heavily betting on SOL’s independent surge in this lousy September market? Don’t joke around. The big players are more relaxed than anyone, just loving to watch retail traders use leverage as their energy source.
Today’s take on SOL: The hyperactive kid is being forcibly put to sleep. Just obediently close the app, grab an iced Americano, and wait for the Fed’s announcement or for volume to truly pick up and show direction. Today’s mission: refuse internal strife, lie flat above all.
Also, if you want to earn a bit more yield, you can switch to xoksol, but the relative risks are exchange rate issues and transaction fees. $BTC $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | Three different forms of power
The power of $BTC comes from trust in the rules.
The power of $ETH comes from what can be built based on the rules.
The power of $SOL comes from the speed at which these rules are executed.
Bitcoin optimizes monetary certainty.
Ethereum optimizes composability.
Solana optimizes high-speed on-chain activity.
The same industry.
Three completely different answers to this question:
What should blockchain be best at?#Hormuz Ships Attacked Again, Regional Talks Postponed
Hormuz ships attacked again, regional talks postponed
Latest Data
A merchant ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and the multilateral talks originally scheduled to ease tensions in the strait have been postponed. Brent crude oil surged over 3% in the short term. The market shows $BTC at 73940, with a slight dip intraday, risk aversion rising, ETFs maintaining a slight net outflow, and U.S. Treasury yields further increasing.
Market Consensus
One view is that rising risks in the shipping lane push oil prices higher, reigniting inflation pressures and strengthening expectations for rate hikes, causing risk assets to remain under pressure;
Another view considers this a short-term geopolitical disturbance, believing that as long as the conflict does not escalate significantly, the market will return to its original rhythm after sentiment is digested.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Hormuz handles a large volume of global crude oil exports, and instability in the shipping lane directly drives energy prices up. Rising oil prices will again boost inflation expectations, coinciding with the upcoming FOMC meeting, indirectly suppressing crypto asset valuations. Geopolitical news fluctuates rapidly; do not judge medium- to long-term directions based on a single sudden event.
Personal View (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market recovery, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Geopolitical uncertainties increase market unpredictability; maintain a light position and observe, focusing on adjusting layout after the Federal Reserve decision is announced. $ZEC has defended the 1000 level through so many rounds, do you still think it will break this time???
Since ZEC broke through 1000, it has actually formed a consolidation pattern typical of a high-level accumulation phase. Notice the recent dips; each time it touches the 1040-1050 range, it quickly closes with a long lower shadow. This indicates very strong buying pressure below. The main players are using the sideways movement to clear floating positions but absolutely will not allow the price to break below the psychological 1000 mark.
This strong move in ZEC is not just a technical rebound but also a value reassessment following the launch of the Grayscale spot ETF. Institutional capital's cost basis is around here, and they are more eager than anyone to support the price.
The current sideways consolidation is preparing for the next rally.
Watch the 1040-1050 support zone; stabilize here and go long.
Once volume breaks above the previous high of 1217, the upside space will fully open!
$FIL $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The White House's "reverse" signal
On the other hand, White House economic advisor Hassett publicly stated: "President Trump and I both believe there is no reason to raise interest rates; it is important for the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo before the election." Trump himself directly declared: "The United States should have the lowest interest rates in the world." — The political machine's accelerator is directly pressing the Federal Reserve's brake.
Two scenario simulations:
· The Federal Reserve resists political pressure and raises rates based on data: This is a solid "bad news" for risk assets, and BTC may face further downward pressure
· The Federal Reserve yields to the White House and holds steady: The 86.5% rate hike bet will instantly turn into massive short-covering fuel, and the market may violently rebound $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
The real show is about to start this week, and the Federal Reserve is about to deliver its verdict.
Interestingly, political opposition voices have suddenly grown louder.
So what exactly is the impact of this on the crypto space? I'll break it down into two layers.
First layer: short-term sentiment. If the rate hike really lands early Thursday morning, will it be "bad news fully priced in" or "a boot dropping on the foot"? It all depends on how much the market has priced in beforehand. The probability of a rate hike is nearly 90% now, so the market has long priced in the worst-case scenario. If it really hikes, Bitcoin might actually dip briefly then quickly rebound. If unexpectedly no hike occurs, that would be a huge positive surprise, directly pulling up a big bullish candle.
Second layer: liquidity suppression. U.S. Treasury yields are approaching 5%, making funding costs very high. At this critical juncture, institutions dare not heavily bet on any direction and are deleveraging defensively. Why is Bitcoin stuck around 75,000, unable to rise or fall? It's not because of fundamentals, but because off-exchange money is too expensive, and no incremental funds are entering the market.
Here’s my take.
Right now, the macro data is the script, but it's hard to guess how the Fed will actually play it out. I don't recommend betting on whether there will be a rate hike or not; heavy one-sided macro bets are just giving away your position. This market is not about who guesses right, but who survives longer. Those holding positions should set stop losses properly; those not yet in should wait for the boot to drop, then follow once the direction is clear. Missing a day or two won’t hurt.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $CASHCAT 1506, is it a solid base?
The largest short whale PONS & CASHCAT has started to take profits.
This user still holds 27.47M PONS shorts, valued at $14.3M, and 35.95M CASHCAT shorts, valued at $5.7M, with an unrealized total profit of about $5.7M.
I believe this is a profit-locking move after a very large short operation, not a signal that selling pressure has ended.
Sharing only on-chain data, not constituting buy or sell advice.I thought next week would just be "lively news," but in fact, the market is quietly relining the strength of sectors. Are your positions really in sync? My biggest feeling these past two days isn't excitement, but a bit nervous. The US crypto legislation on September 15 and the Fed's rate decision on Thursday are both pressing together, so the timing is too close. Many people are watching whether BTC can return to 80K or ETH can reach 2,666, but what cares more is: the same macro result can be reacted differently by sector. Let's first look at the bullish path. If legislation progresses smoothly, the Fed is soft-spoken, the dollar weakens, yields fall, and risk appetite will return to large-cap first. BTC returns above 80K, ETH tests 2,666. At this point, strong sectors are usually Layer 1, staking, and some AI narratives, as they are most sensitive to interest rates and compliance expectations. But note, this isn't a broad-based rally; funds will prioritize those with "high certainty." Now let's look at risk. If the Fed leans hawkish, the dollar strengthens, and yields rise, BTC could fall below 76K, putting greater pressure on ETH. At this point, the declines of altcoins are often not linear, and the gap between sectors is widened. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw $450 million in outflows, which already shows that some funds are cutting risk early. And data like Oracle AI Cloud's 121% rise reminds me: the market isn't out of money—it's money choosing where to stay. My own reflection is that it was too easy to mistake "macro positives" for whole-market positive news before. In fact, sector strength is what decidesIt was emphasized before the market opened this morning: a rebound is not a reversal, do not mistake a correction for a turning point, the key observation zone is locked at the 4350-4370 resistance area. During the day, gold prices tested 4355, hit resistance, then reversed and declined smoothly back to 4322, capturing about a $33 swing range. Short-term corrections do not change the medium-term bearish structure—the resistance zone is the optimal entry window for shorts. $BTC $ETH $CVC surges, but don't mistake a squeeze for a trend
Altcoins have indeed been strong these days; after LSK and Lobster, it's CVC's turn. The daily chart shows a stair-step upward movement with a large increase
But the reason for the rise is simple: shorts were forced to cover. It's not because of any major positive news from the project; the intraday chart is a classic spike—doubling in a few hours, then quickly falling back.
The key is whether it can hold above 0.038; if it can't, it will retrace after the squeeze.
Don't act blindly now, wait and watch, and make decisions after clearly seeing the trend #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ BTC冲上80000多美元之后，一头撞在了50周线上。 刚看到一张图，有点意思，拿出来说说。这张图画的是BTC已实现利润和已实现亏损的365日均线交叉历史。 先解释一下这两个指标是什么意思。已实现利润，指的是链上移动的币在移动时的价格高于上一次移动价格的部分。已实现亏损则相反，是低于上一次移动价格的部分。把这两个数据分别算出来，再做365日均线，就能平滑掉短期噪音，看清市场整体是在赚钱还是亏钱。 过去几轮熊市，2012年、2015年、2018年、2022年，每次已实现利润线向下穿过已实现亏损线，都对应着周期底部的区域。反过来，当已实现利润线向上穿回已实现亏损线，基本就是熊市结束、复苏开始的信号。 那眼下呢。我们正处在新一轮熊市底部的边缘，已实现利润线正准备向下穿。不过这个信号不是绝对底部的精确刻度。 2022年那次，下穿信号出来之后，市场还来了最后一跌才真正出清。 2015年和2018年那两次，信号亮起的时候底部基本已经摆在那里了，价格就是熊市最低点，后面还给了很长一段平坦期，让想抄底的人慢慢买，不急不慌。 唯一的例外是2011年那个非典型牛市之后的熊市，2012年信号出来的时候底部早$BTC # This Week's FOMC Announcement: Will the Rate Hike Happen?
This week's FOMC decision will be the key watershed for the current macro market. August CPI and PPI have consecutively exceeded expectations, and CME interest rate futures price in nearly a 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike. The market generally bets on the rate hike being implemented. Walsh has already signaled a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole; if inflation rebounds without action, it would undermine the Fed's credibility in fighting inflation. However, internal divisions remain, with some officials worried that rate hikes could suppress employment and amplify volatility in U.S. Treasury and risk assets, leaving a slight possibility of a surprise.
If the rate hike is implemented, it will be an expected event, likely resulting in a "sell the news" reaction. The focus will be on the dot plot and the post-meeting press conference, watching for signals of continued hikes within the year; if there is an unexpected pause, it will directly suppress U.S. Treasury yields, and assets like BTC and gold will see a rapid rebound. Short-term funds have already started to play ahead, so market volatility will concentrate around the decision and speeches. Future asset pricing will no longer depend solely on whether there is a single rate hike, but on the Fed's stance on inflation tolerance going forward.
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ After a short-term surge, UNI encountered selling pressure; the 4-hour rebound momentum weakened, and short-term moving averages showed signs of flattening/turning, with the trend entering a consolidation range. The resistance level above is 6.182, and the support level below is 6.102. If the 4-hour close holds above 6.182, breaking out of the range, the uptrend is likely to continue; if it effectively breaks below 6.102, the breakdown is confirmed, with the next reference level at 5.782. The DeFi sector still maintains a high correlation with the broader market. Uncertainty is elevated around this week's FOMC, so before the direction becomes clear, respond with range-bound oscillation and wait for breakout signals.
Bullish: 4H closes above 6.182 and holds on pullback, favoring bulls.
Bearish: 4H breaks below 6.102 and fails to rebound above it, favoring bears, target 5.782.
Sideways: Trading between 6.102 and 6.182 with moving averages entangled, observe or treat as range-bound.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 The storage sector recently has been really a bit of a love-hate situation. $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX
#ThisWeekFOMCReveal, will the rate hike land?
The fundamentals are clearly still strong, but the stock prices have started to fluctuate back and forth. After MU and SanDisk continuously fell, many people began to doubt: is the storage rally over?
I think we can't draw that conclusion just yet.
Let's look at MU first. The latest close is around $975. The previous two attempts to reach around $1040 failed to hold, indicating that the $1000–$1040 range has formed significant resistance. In the short term, support is seen at $967–$950. As long as this area is not effectively broken, it currently looks more like a high-level consolidation; only by reclaiming $1000 can it have a chance to challenge $1040 again.
MU's biggest logic still lies in HBM, server DRAM, and AI data centers. Last quarter's revenue hit a record, HBM4 has already started mass shipments, and the new quarterly earnings report will be released on September 30. So the market's focus going forward is not just whether the performance is good, but whether such high expectations can continue to be exceeded.
Now looking at SanDisk, the volatility is obviously more intense.
The stock price previously peaked near $1807, then fell for two consecutive days, with the latest close at $1633. Short-term support is at $1600–$1620; if broken, it may retest $1500–$1550. On the upside, watch $1690–$1735 first; only after breaking through again will it have a chance to test $1800.
SanDisk's elasticity mainly comes from NAND and enterprise SSDs. Last quarter's revenue grew 51% quarter-over-quarter, with about two-thirds coming from price increases. The data center business also grew very fast, and the company has a large buyback plan.
But the problem is here: SanDisk is more sensitive to NAND prices. When prices rise, profit elasticity is very strong. The market worries that when the price increase slows, the stock valuation will be cut more severely than MU.
The entire storage industry is not currently at the "end of price increases," but has moved from the previous crazy price hikes into a phase of gradually slowing growth. Institutions expect third-quarter DRAM contract prices to continue rising 13%–18%, NAND up 10%–15%, AI server demand remains strong, but consumer sectors like phones and computers are starting to resist high prices.
So my understanding of these two stocks is:
MU is relatively more stable; the main focus next is whether the earnings report can continue to deliver on HBM expectations. SanDisk has greater elasticity, but whether the $1600 area can hold is very critical.
The logic is not broken for now, but the stock prices have already priced in a lot of optimistic expectations in advance. What we fear most now is not that the industry suddenly loses demand, but that everyone already knows about storage price increases and has factored in profits for the next few years in advance, haha.
This round of correction does not necessarily mean the rally is over, but before key support is confirmed, chasing highs should be done with some restraint. 📊 This Week's Unlock Risk Alert: Mostly Routine Releases, Two Key Dates to Avoid
This week's token unlock scale is considerable, but the vast majority are routine releases with limited impact on the market. Only two time points carry significant selling pressure risk ⚠️
1. On the 18th $TRUMP ⚠️ Double Selling Pressure Risk
On-chain monitoring shows the project team has recently been withdrawing liquidity; 28.7 million tokens will unlock in 5 days.
Liquidity withdrawal combined with large new chip releases creates strong downward pressure on the market. Holders are advised to reduce positions before the unlock window for risk control.
2. On the 20th ZRO 📉 Large Unlock
LayerZero will unlock 25.7 million tokens on the 20th, accounting for 7.3% of the circulating supply, requiring the market to absorb a huge amount of floating chips.
On the same day, KAITO also faces an unlock exceeding 7%, but due to a larger market cap, the selling pressure is relatively eased.
3. Other Unlocks Are Routine Events, Unlikely to Drive Market Movement 📌
On the 14th, PUMP releases 30 million tokens, accounting for 1.7% of circulation, a monthly routine unlock;
On the 16th, ARB unlocks 9 million tokens, a regular node in the long-term vesting plan.
These two releases are limited in scale and will not constitute market variables.
💡 Core Summary:
It is recommended to reduce TRUMP positions before unlock; be cautious about short-term bottom fishing for ZRO/$KAITO to avoid catching a falling knife.Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO，可能成为AI时代最受关注的一次上市事件。市场消息显示，Anthropic已经选择纳斯达克作为潜在上市地点，并计划推进IPO进程，外界对其估值预期甚至达到数万亿美元级别。这不仅是一家公司上市，更代表AI产业进入资本化新阶段。过去几年，AI公司的核心竞争是模型能力，但随着大模型进入商业化阶段，市场开始重新评估AI企业的盈利能力、算力投入和生态价值。Anthropic旗下Claude模型快速增长，同时持续扩大GPU、云计算和数据中心投入，说明未来AI竞争已经从算法竞争升级为资金、算力和基础设施竞争。如果Anthropic成功上市，对整个AI产业链都会形成刺激。一方面，投资者会寻找下一个AI龙头；另一方面，GPU、服务器、云服务、电力和数据中心等基础设施企业可能继续受到资本关注。AI最大的机会，可能不只是做模型，而是谁能提供支撑AI发展的底层资源。但市场也需要警惕估值泡沫。AI企业未来增长空间巨大，但高估值需要持续收入和利润兑现支撑。如果IPO后市场给予过高预期，一旦商业化速度低于预期，也可能出现估值回调。Anthropic上市的意义在于，它可能成为衡量A🔥 FUNDING RATES ARE A WARNING — NOT A BUY SIGNAL.
When funding becomes extremely positive, too many traders may be positioned long.
That can create a dangerous situation:
Price rises → longs pile in → leverage increases → small pullback → liquidations → cascade.
Sometimes the strongest-looking market is actually the most fragile.
I don't just ask:
“Is BTC bullish?”
I also ask:
“How crowded is the trade?”
Low leverage often survives what high leverage cannot.Started a small-capital recovery challenge with the first milestone set at 1,000U. Today I opened a $ZEC short position: Entry: 1,365 Exit: 1,120 The trade delivered around +95% profit, adding nearly 18U to the account. $ZEC finally made the sharp downside move I was waiting for. I decided to secure the profit instead of staying greedy, especially with volatility increasing. For now, I’m staying patient and waiting for a cleaner setup before entering another short. Protecting capital comes first#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
1. Incident Overview (September 13)
The UK Maritime Trade Operations office (UKMTO) reported: a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an unidentified projectile, causing a fire on the ship's hull and an emergency evacuation of the crew; on the same day, Iranian authorities reported that a domestic container ship was attacked, resulting in 1 death and 4 injuries, with the source of the attack still under investigation.
Compounding prior risks: the Saudi East-West oil pipeline was previously shut down due to a drone attack; this pipeline is the most important alternative crude oil export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz; Yanbu port inventories can only sustain exports for 5-7 days, leaving very limited buffer capacity for alternative production.
Strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz: it handles about 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport, along with large volumes of diesel and jet fuel shipments, making it a vital global energy artery. If shipping disruptions continue, tanker insurance premiums and freight rates will immediately surge.
2. Direct Impact on Commodities
1. Crude Oil: Brent crude surged rapidly, with geopolitical risk premiums directly factored in. The market fears restricted passage through the route plus failure of alternative pipelines, causing a substantial supply shortfall.
2. Diesel (Key Focus)
U.S. distillate inventories are already at 20-year lows, compounded by the approaching autumn harvest and winter heating season. This incident further heightens global diesel supply concerns, intensifying upward pressure on U.S. diesel prices and strengthening the supply-side inflation narrative.Robinhood's crypto trading volume increased by 61% month-over-month in August, but the number of funded accounts only grew by about 120,000 during the same period.
This combination is quite interesting. Trading volume surged sharply, but the user count did not explode in tandem, indicating that this growth is more likely driven by existing users increasing their trading frequency and institutional and overseas traffic brought in by Bitstamp, rather than a large influx of new retail investors suddenly entering the market.
The group's crypto trading volume reached $17.5 billion, with Bitstamp contributing $10.1 billion and the Robinhood App contributing $7.4 billion. Mergers and acquisitions are helping Robinhood scale up, but they also make the "Robinhood trading volume" metric more complex. Going forward, when looking at this company, one cannot just look at a single total figure; it is necessary to distinguish whether growth comes from the App, institutional clients, or consolidated acquired assets.
I actually like this change. Relying solely on U.S. retail sentiment means revenue quickly shrinks when the market cools; after integrating Bitstamp, the company now has a broader customer base and liquidity sources.
But the real test is just beginning. Trading volume can be rapidly amplified by volatility, but the real challenge is converting these active users into stable assets, subscriptions, and interest income. Buzz is valuable, but retention determines valuation.
#Robinhood加密交易量8月环比增61% 🔷 Bounty for hacking: how hackers legalized $47 million
A week ago I analyzed the Liquid hack — today the details.
• The attack cost 21 cents in fees — the largest hack of 2026
• "White-hat" hackers returned 3,400 $BTC, but left 598 (~$47 million) as a "bounty"
• Background: 207 hacks in the first half of 2026 totaling $1.3 billion
🧠 My thought: a shadow market for "bug bounties" is forming before our eyes: attackers take out $320 million, return 85%, and keep 15% as a "fee" — more than a legal program would offer.Tomorrow's FOMC decision, the market prices in an 87% probability of a 25bp rate hike.
Every time there's a major event like this, I notice a phenomenon: many people get the direction right, but their account profits and losses are far from expectations.
Where's the problem? Execution quality.
At the moment data is released, liquidity plummets. The "market price" you see and the actual price you get may have huge slippage between them. Stop-loss orders can be slippage to ridiculous levels under thin liquidity.
This is why I pay more and more attention to execution aspects:
How much does the actual execution price differ from the price you see after placing an order?
Is there enough depth during volatile markets?
Is the funding rate quietly eating into profits?
You decide the direction, but execution quality is not under your control. Choose a venue with reliable execution to at least ensure you don't lose money when you're "right on the direction."#Trump accepts new ethics rules, CLARITY vote approaching
Intelligence analyst breaks it down for everyone: This time Trump isn’t having a "change of heart," he’s done the math.
CLARITY needs 60 votes tomorrow; Republicans hold 53 seats, so they need about seven or eight Democratic votes. The ethics rules are the stumbling block—if he doesn’t relent, the bill will be deadlocked, and the crypto community’s eight-year wait for a regulatory framework will be delayed another year.
So he accepted about 80% of the Tillis–Gallego package: "significant" crypto holdings by the president, high officials, and their families must be sold or placed into blind trusts; state attorneys general can also enforce.
But don’t get too excited, Warren already said: loopholes remain, like family licenses, memecoins, and intermediaries like WLFI who can still profit by going around the rules.
If it’s really going to pass, it depends on whether cloture can reach 60 votes tomorrow; if not, the blame goes to the Democrats, and if it passes, amendments can still be fought over in three more rounds.
Intelligence analyst’s conclusion: This is a "last-minute push," not a "done deal." The market shouldn’t assume all good news is priced in; first watch the success threshold, then the detailed implementation.
$BTC and $ETH keep swinging back and forth in short-term tug-of-war!$SOPH Making this money gave me no sense of achievement at all, purely luck.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, I watched SOPH; the support was insufficient, and every upward surge lacked momentum. I judged that there was pressure at the high level and directly opened a short position around 0.010142. Many hesitated at that time, but I advised not to chase longs and to wait until the rebound weakened before acting.
As a result, the price kept dropping to 0.004237, securing a +1164.66% unrealized profit, a very satisfying gain. The earlier hesitation was worth it when it finally played out.
Take 80% off the table first, don’t be greedy for the last bit. Move the stop loss for the remaining 20% up to the cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profit run, and if it rebounds, don’t give back the profit.
The market is to be waited for, and profits are to be held onto. Being out of the market is not a sin; recklessly opening positions is the mistake.
For friends who haven’t gotten in yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush; there will be more opportunities later, wait for the next shot.
$DOGE $XRP #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Folks, the biggest event of this week is about to happen. In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its September interest rate decision, and the entire market is focused on this.
Let's first look at the data. August PPI year-on-year surged to 5.4%, CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, combined with high energy prices and persistently elevated long-term US Treasury yields, the market overall leans toward the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points this time. Even big institutions like Goldman Sachs have changed their stance, shifting from expecting no change to anticipating a rate hike in September.
However, political resistance is also significant. Trump directly called for the US to have the lowest global interest rates, and White House economic advisor Hassett also believes there is currently no reason to raise rates. This is quite interesting: on one side, inflation data pressures a hike; on the other, political pressure demands no hike. The Fed is caught in the middle, making the decision extremely difficult.
Now the core of the market game is no longer simply "to hike or not to hike." The probability of a rate hike has been priced in at nearly 90%, the boot is basically about to drop. The real eye of the storm lies in the Fed's post-meeting statement—how it explains the current inflation pressures and policy choices, and what the subsequent interest rate path will be. If it just hikes once and stops, that means the bad news is fully priced in. But if it hints at a second or third hike, that would be a fatal blow to risk assets. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY法案明天迎来关键一战 这两天币圈真正值得关注的消息，我觉得不是某个MEME又涨了多少，而是美国CLARITY法案终于出现了比较明显的转机。
特朗普已经接受新版伦理方案的大部分内容，这个动作看起来只是政治上的让步，但对CLARITY来说意义其实不小。
因为之前法案卡住的核心问题之一，就是特朗普本人以及政府官员的加密利益冲突。
民主党和部分共和党议员一直要求加入更严格的伦理限制，尤其是针对特朗普及其家族的加密资产和相关商业利益。
现在特朗普接受了大约80%的相关方案，包括对政府官员发行数字资产、持有和利益冲突等方面进行限制，同时还涉及州检察长的执法权限。
说白了，这次特朗普是在用自己的让步，换CLARITY法案继续往前走。
而真正关键的时间点就是9月15日。
参议院计划进行CLARITY法案的程序性投票，这一票不是直接代表法案最终通过，而是决定它能不能继续进入后面的立法程序。
最关键的是60票门槛。
共和党目前有53个席位，所以还需要争取至少7名民主党议员支持，才能跨过程序性投票的门槛。
所以我觉得现在市场容易出现一个误区：
“特朗普都接受伦理条款了，