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一、道氏理论（Dow Theory） 主要趋势（1小时级别）： 从8月14日低点 62,484 以来的主要上升趋势仍在延续。8月31日分析中提及的 81,246-81,435 双顶结构已被9月3日的放量突破彻底证伪——9月3日BTC史诗级放量拉升（成交量约172亿，为本轮最大量），单日从76,938飙至 82,272，创8月28日以来新高，收于81,272。这是典型的"假双顶、真突破"，宣告3浪延长。然而9月3日之后升势戛然而止：9月4日放量回落至 78,628，9月6日反抽 80,538 形成次高点，随后四个交易日重心持续下移，9月10日跌破78,000整数关口，9月11日凌晨探至 76,513，收盘76,927。值得注意的是，价格已跌破道氏上升趋势线（62,484→76,245连线），这是本轮上升以来首次有效跌破，趋势进入警示状态。 结构序列： 低点序列：62,484 → 76,524 → 75,602 → 77,050 → 76,381 → 76,245 → 78,628 → 79,334 → 76,513（当前测试）；高点序列：81,246 → 81,435 → 82,272 $BTC $ETH
The PPI slap caused quite a market turmoil.
Last night when the PPI was released, the market first flipped the table: BTC dropped to around 77,000, ETH retreated to 2430, and ZEC was even worse, turning the high volatility of altcoins into a high-altitude free fall.
But the data really isn't "all-out explosive."
Overall PPI year-on-year is 5.4%, indeed hot; but the core month-on-month is only 0.2%, even lower than expected. Simply put, a large part of this heat is driven by oil and diesel prices.
So I'm not rushing to call a bear market now. Last night the market was trading on "inflation might come back," tonight's CPI will decide whether this hit was justified or not.
If CPI heats up again and US Treasury yields rise, high volatility assets like ETH and ZEC will still get hit; if core CPI cools down, this wave looks more like an early exit of leveraged players.
Don't bet your life on the first needle these two days; the answer isn't out yet, so first protect your principal. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 On Polymarket, the probability that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 is 15%.
Two months ago, this number was 82%. This Polymarket contract has traded over $11 million, with odds dropping from 82% at the start of the year to 14%.
Second set: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong appeared on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on September 10, and his exact words were—
"The senators I've spoken with have a positive view of this bill." "The bill has enough support in the Senate."
He added an even stronger statement:
"Whether the CLARITY Act passes or not, the SEC and CFTC are already prepared to issue their own rules."
To translate: whether it passes or not, the rules will come.
This is quite surreal.
On one side, the market is voting with real money, pricing the probability of passage at 15%.
On the other side, the industry's biggest player publicly says, "The senators I've talked to all support it."
The gap is huge, isn't it?
What is the Polymarket contract betting on? It's betting on the vote on September 15.
But what is Armstrong betting on? He's betting on something bigger—the ultimate outcome of U.S. crypto regulation.
What exactly is the vote on September 15?
It is not a vote on the bill itself.
It is a cloture vote—a procedural vote to decide whether the bill can enter formal Senate debate.
It requires 60 votes. The Republicans hold 53 seats. At least 7 Democrats need to defect.
The House already passed the bill in July 2025 with a high vote of 294 to 134, with 78 Democrats voting in favor.
The Senate Banking Committee passed it in May with a bipartisan 15 to 9 vote, including 13 Republicans and 2 Democrats.
But in the full Senate, the 60-vote threshold is unreachable.
Why?
Ethics provisions. Democrats want to include clauses restricting government officials from profiting from crypto assets, targeting the Trump family's World Liberty Financial and $TRUMP coin. The White House said, "We will not tolerate provisions specifically targeting the president." Both sides are deadlocked.
There are also issues with stablecoin yields, illicit finance, DeFi registration... a bunch of unresolved problems.
So Polymarket's 15% is not saying the bill "shouldn't pass."
It means: the vote on September 15 most likely won't pass.
But there is a huge cognitive gap here.
The market equates "whether this vote passes" with "whether crypto regulation has a future."
These are two different things.
Armstrong made it very clear: even if the CLARITY Act fails, the SEC and CFTC have already stated they are ready to issue their own rules.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins publicly said, "I expect and hope the Senate will advance the CLARITY Act." But he also said the SEC can deliver crypto rules without the CLARITY Act.
Coinbase policy head Faryar Shirzad also said bluntly: the company "does not assume" all 53 Republican senators will support it, meaning every defection increases the number of Democratic votes needed.
People inside the industry are not betting "this vote will definitely pass." They say: whether it passes or not, regulatory certainty will eventually come.
One is a short-term procedural vote. The other is a long-term institutional direction.
Polymarket is pricing the former. Armstrong is betting on the latter.
I know what you're thinking.
"Just another pipe dream." "Can the SEC really be trusted to make rules on its own?"
Reliable or not, you have to admit one thing:
The discussion on U.S. crypto regulation has shifted from "whether to regulate" to "how to regulate."
WalletConnect's recently released global regulatory report is titled exactly that: major markets' crypto regulatory discussions have shifted from "whether to regulate" to "how to implement."
The EU's MiCA is fully applicable, with the transition period ending July 1 this year, about 330 authorized crypto asset service providers registered with ESMA. Hong Kong has issued stablecoin licenses. Japan revised its Payment Services Act. The U.S. GENIUS Act has become law.
Globally, the era of "whether" to regulate crypto is over.
The only difference now is: regulate through legislation or through administrative rules.
The CLARITY Act chooses the former—to provide the U.S. crypto market with a lasting legal framework through congressional legislation, rather than a set of rules that change with each administration.
Shirzad put it clearly: "But we need the durability of legislation."
That's why industry giants are more optimistic than the market.
The market is watching this vote. The industry is watching this era.
So what will happen on September 15?
If it gets 60 votes: the bill enters formal debate, moving one step closer to final legislation. XRP's regulatory classification may be clarified, and legal barriers for institutional capital entry removed.
If it doesn't get 60 votes: the bill is basically dead for 2026, with only 14 working days left in the Senate this year. But the SEC and CFTC will accelerate their own rulemaking.
Both outcomes lead to the same long-term direction for the crypto industry.
The difference is only in speed, durability, and source of certainty.
Polymarket is betting on this vote; Armstrong is betting on this era.
$BTC $WLFI $TRUMP $SNDK's fundamentals are indeed very strong.
But there is a very practical issue with stock trading:
A good company does not mean that any price is a good price.
This year, the market has directly revalued SanDisk from a traditional storage company to a "core asset of AI infrastructure."
FY2026 revenue growth is 175%, data center business growth is 437%, and Q4 gross margin and profits are extremely exaggerated.
The problem lies precisely here.
The market now has almost a consensus expectation on NAND price increases, AI data center demand, and tight supply.
When everyone starts believing the same story, the risk is often not that the company suddenly deteriorates, but that performance falls slightly short of market fantasies.
This is both the biggest catalyst in a bull market and the greatest risk going forward.
So my current view on $SNDK is:
The company is fine, and the industry is fine.
The real question is—
At this price, how many years of good news have already been priced in?
If NAND prices continue to rise in the coming quarters, SNDK may continue to surge.
But once the price increase cycle peaks, when this highly elastic stock faces valuation cuts, it won't give you much time to react. BTC跌0.56%、SOL跌0.83%，只有ETH逆势涨0.40%。更明显的信号来自TradFi：现货八席全部下跌，xSKHY跌3.10%、xSOXL跌2.57%；合约涨幅榜前两名却是SKDD +5.58%和SOXS +2.35%两只空头工具。 这不是资金重新追逐成长，而是在主动购买下跌保护。 行情明细： 加密货币现货 - BTC/USDT：76,817.5，-0.56%，成交额4.13亿美元 - ETH/USDT：2,451.12，+0.40%，成交额2.79亿美元 - ZEC/USDT：1,088.63，-6.87%，成交额8,740.97万美元 - SOL/USDT：98.91，-0.83%，成交额8,278.61万美元 - IOST/USDT：0.0009454，-13.32%，成交额533.66万美元 - DOGE/USDT：0.08329，-0.54%，成交额4,077.96万美元 - NES/USDT：0.1501，+6.76%，成交额611.21万美元 TradFi现货热门榜 - XAUT/USDT：4,325.2，-0.89%，成交额1,592.51万美元 - xSOWhen traditional finance fails, go on-chain! Iran activates $BTC/$USDT settlement, and the crypto "backup channel" is becoming a reality
Message breakdown:
① Iran's central bank relaxes foreign exchange controls, allowing exporters to use BTC, USDT, and other crypto assets through domestic exchanges to recover overseas income and directly pay for imports.
② This move aims to reduce reliance on the official foreign exchange system and bypass the US-led traditional cross-border payment system.
③ The US Treasury simultaneously expands sanctions on Iran's digital assets and commercial networks, escalating the standoff.
Core logic:
① This is not just "Iran buying coins," but a sovereign nation, under traditional financial blockade, substantially implementing crypto assets as a backup channel for cross-border settlement.
② Clear division of labor: BTC solves value transfer, USDT solves dollar denomination, and together they meet the trade necessities of sanctioned countries.
③ Iran is neither the first nor the last. Countries facing foreign exchange shortages and currency depreciation may follow suit.
Conclusion: The more traditional finance blocks, the greater the demand for on-chain settlement. When sovereign nations start using Crypto to bypass foreign exchange systems, the real value of BTC and USDT is being validated by the real world—this is not hype, it is a necessity.
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 PPI exceeded expectations, $BTC dropped to 76,600, and the whole network started shouting "It's over, it's over."
What did I say yesterday? I said CPI would be lower than expected, between 3.1% and 3.2%. What does PPI exceeding expectations have to do with me?
PPI is the Producer Price Index, CPI is the Consumer Price Index. They are related but not the same thing. If PPI exceeds expectations, does CPI have to exceed expectations? Not necessarily. Last year there were several times when PPI exceeded expectations, but CPI was still below expectations. The market is overreacting now; when the data comes out tomorrow, it will rise if it’s supposed to.
Look at another thing. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.35%, a new high since 2019. Sounds scary, right? But have you thought about this— the higher the yield, the greater the government’s interest burden, making it less likely to continue raising rates. No matter how much talk there is, they have to do the math. If rates are raised too much, the government can’t pay the interest, who will be responsible?
76,000 to 77,000, the last drop. Tomorrow when CPI comes out, it will either directly reverse in a V-shape or drop a bit more then pull up. Either way, those who sell at this level will regret it.
We’ll see the outcome tomorrow night. If you guess right, shout it out in the chat; if you guess wrong, feel free to curse in the comments.
#BTC #PPI #CPI #RateHike #TimeTravelerFinally want to say a few sincere words.
The real problem with $ZEC has never been just bugs, personnel changes, or some data hitting new highs, but the gap between narrative and reality.
Talking about privacy, but the actual proportion of private transactions is very low; talking about decentralization, governance is still influenced by institutions; talking about censorship resistance, the community still can't avoid the issue of profit distribution.
When the market starts to question the narrative, the price naturally reflects the change in confidence first.
Technically, $1,080 is a key short-term support; if broken, the 4-hour structure may weaken further; above, the $1,220–$1,250 resistance is obvious, with multiple attempts but no effective breakthrough.
The most important thing now is not to bottom-fish, but to wait for the market to prove itself.
ZEC has fallen many times before, but the biggest difference this time is: before, the price fell first, but faith remained; this time, the loosening of faith may be the starting point of the decline.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$ZEC $ETH $BTC #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 $ZEC $SNDK $SPCX suddenly plunged in this round, and many people didn't have time to react.
The market had been consolidating sideways for nearly half a month, forming a strong inertia: everyone assumed that as long as $BTC and $ETH retraced to the lower boundary of the range, funds would come out to support, and a slight drop would attract bottom-fishers who would hold on and eventually recover.
But the most dangerous part of the market is here—when everyone believes "it will bounce back after falling," stop-losses are most easily abandoned.
In my view, this decline cannot yet be easily defined as over; it looks more like the first phase of risk release. If macro data continues to lean hawkish, BTC may further test around $72,000, ETH might retest the $2,050–2,100 range, and for ZEC, which had a larger prior gain, if market liquidity continues to tighten, a drop below $950 is not ruled out.
The focus now is not to guess the bottom but to watch trading volume, capital flows, and whether key support levels can hold.
Especially now, with PPI and CPI being released consecutively, the Federal Reserve's interest rate path has again become the core market variable; meanwhile, changes in US stock earnings reports, the dollar, and US Treasury yields may continue to amplify risk asset volatility.
In the short term, don't rush to confirm a reversal just because of one rebound. Before the market truly stabilizes, holding cash and controlling position size is itself an advantage.
#EarningsObserver #PPI #CPI #FederalReserve #BTC #ETH #ZEC #SNDK #SPCXPPI slightly higher than expected, what’s next for BTC?
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.3%.
After the data release, the market started to reprice rate cut expectations.
However, this time the PPI is not strong enough to change the big picture; it’s more like a reminder to the market:
The path of inflation easing may still have fluctuations.
Looking closely at the data, price pressure mainly comes from energy and other factors, with no obvious loss of control in core indicators.
So now the market is really watching not just the PPI number, but the subsequent chain reactions:
Will US Treasury yields continue to rise?
Will the US dollar strengthen again?
Will funds continue to flow back into risk assets?
For BTC, short-term volatility may still occur.
But at this stage of the market, news is just a catalyst; what truly determines the direction is whether funds keep flowing in.
Next, don’t rush to guess the rise or fall; watching fund movements is more important. Brent crude has broken 100, Trump says it will fall after the election, do you believe it?
On September 9, Brent crude oil broke through $100, and on September 10 it directly hit 107, rising nearly 10% in two days. WTI also broke 100, closing at 102.48.
Why such a sharp rise? The US-Iran conflict is still ongoing, the Middle East situation is tense, global oil inventories have already decreased by 400 million barrels, and the EIA has raised its oil price forecast.
On the 9th, Trump came out and said: once the midterm elections are over, the war will immediately end, and oil prices will drop sharply. But then he said the oil price decline might take longer than the election.
This statement is basically meaningless. The election is in November, two months away, so what about oil prices in these two months? Moreover, White House officials say the conflict may continue until the end of Trump's term.
Who is most affected by oil prices breaking 100? The Federal Reserve. Input inflation is here, PPI is already at 5.4%, and with tonight's CPI likely to explode again, a rate hike in September is basically unavoidable.
So you see, oil price rises → inflation rises → rate hikes → risk assets get hit, this chain is very clear.
Trump says oil prices will fall after the election, but that is after the election; for now, the rise must continue. #布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 #BTC
Odds have dropped to 10%, and market sentiment has hit rock bottom.
But odds reflect current expectations, not the final outcome. Bill progress, stagnation, and re-advancement are common in the legislative cycle.
What really matters is that the SEC's own rules are advancing simultaneously. If the framework is established first, the bill itself becomes less important.
I'm not chasing the current rebound; I'll wait for the structure to complete itself.The issue with $BTC is not how much it has dropped, but whether there is new capital stepping in to support the rebound after inflation expectations have risen again. The US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. The market first trades on interest rate pressure, and leveraged positions further amplify volatility.
I am cautious: BTC needs to close with volume to reclaim short-term pressure, and ETH must no longer be significantly weaker than the broader market for risk appetite to be considered restored; if the rebound is on low volume and altcoins continue to underperform mainstream coins, it indicates that funds are still withdrawing. Now, watching "volume and relative strength" is more important than focusing on a single rebound candlestick.3. Institutional Funds: Real Money Is Entering, But the Pace Is Far Below Expectations
ETFs are the compliant channel for institutional entry; the channel for XRP is already open, but the flow is still very small.
Since the launch of the spot XRP ETF in November 2025, the cumulative net inflow has reached $1.8 billion. Goldman Sachs increased its holdings to $87.4 million in Q2 2026, a surge of $83.1 million from the previous quarter, the largest increase among all institutions. Jane Street and Millennium Management hold $16.6 million and $16.2 million respectively. UBS Group, managing $5.7 trillion in assets, has also disclosed XRP holdings.
The direction is correct, but Standard Chartered Bank clearly points out that to achieve the price targets for 2027-2028, the inflow scale of spot ETFs needs to exceed $4 billion. There is more than a twofold gap between the current $1.8 billion and $4 billion. Moreover, weekly ETF inflows have plummeted from a peak of $200 million to about $2 million.
Institutions are transitioning from the "trial position" phase to the "building position" phase, but the speed of transition depends on legislative certainty. Goldman Sachs' significant increase in Q2 is a positive signal, but one quarter of data is insufficient to define a trend. $XRP $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 ETH 4小时技术分析
现价 2450，价格回落至布林下轨 2437 上方，回调空间基本释放完毕。
观察 MACD，绿柱不再继续拉长，下跌动能明显减弱。
布林下轨构成重要支撑，只要 2437 位置守住，就会迎来修复反弹行情。
短线第一目标看布林中轨 2475，
站稳之后上看布林上轨 2520。
连续回调之后不要盲目追空，当下处于低位试多窗口，等待 K 线企稳上攻。$ETH #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 A brief analysis of BTC short-term trends based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, volume-price relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy recommendations)
$BTC #星球日报
Comprehensive assessment
Dow Theory shows the short-term uptrend line has been broken; the main trend remains unchanged but has entered a correction phase
Chan Theory indicates the downward stroke (80,538→76,513) is stronger than segment a, with the price hanging near the lower edge of the new consolidation zone [76,700, 77,550]
Elliott Wave Theory shows wave ④-c's decline has reached the c≈a target; the support zone between 76,200-76,900 is likely nearing its end, but if 76,245 is broken, wave c will extend
Volume-price relationship shows a "peak volume top → shrinking volume decline → support zone holding" cycle; the positive Delta of +2.56 billion on September 11 is a bullish signal
Order flow indicates the price is in a weak balance below POC/VA, with the Sell Zone above at 77,650-77,900
Price action shows four layers of support tests, awaiting directional choice. The US, Japan, and European Central Banks join forces to "pump funds"! Japan raises rates by 97%, Europe has taken action, and the Bitcoin is supported at 76,000 and awaits CPI verdicts
Brothers, central banks around the world have started tightening in sync, and this time is no joke.
Japan: A rate hike is highly likely next week, with swap contracts showing a 97% probability that rates will rise from 1.0% to 1.25%, a 31-year high. Yen arbitrage trades are facing forced liquidation.
Europe: Last night, there was a second rate hike, with the deposit rate raised to 2.5%, directly revealing that "inflation will remain well above target for a long time." Middle Eastern oil prices have pushed up inflation, forcing Europe to take action.
USA: PPI just arrived, overall high with slightly lower core values, signals mixed. But the market is betting on a rate hike in October, and tonight's CPI is the real do-or-die situation.
My judgment: The three central banks are simultaneously taking a profit, and the yen arbitrage trampling is the biggest danger. Once hundreds of billions of dollars worth of arbitrage trades are closed, all risk assets will be hit. There was already a scene in August 2024, when BTC fell more than 20% in a week, and this time the positions were even more crowded.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Ergou only makes a few days from food delivery and won't be taking on flying knives at this position anymore. Before tomorrow night's CPI hits, watch more and move less, waiting for the trump card to come out.
#PPI. CPI releases follow one after another, marking a critical two-day period for the Federal Reserve
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#BTC与黄金90日相关性升至 +0.50 $BTC The three major central banks are simultaneously tightening liquidity! Bitcoin at the 76,000 mark, CPI determines life or death
Overseas central banks are collectively withdrawing market funds, and this time it's not just verbal intimidation.
In Japan, the market pricing for next week's rate hike probability has surged to 97%, with the interest rate expected to rise from 1.0% to 1.25%, hitting a 31-year high. The massive yen carry trade funds could trigger a concentrated forced liquidation at any time, hiding huge risks.
Europe implemented a second round of rate hikes last night, raising deposit rates to 2.5%. The ECB has openly admitted that inflation remains persistently above target. Rising oil prices in the Middle East continue to push inflation higher, forcing Europe to tighten monetary policy.
The US PPI data was just released, showing overall data is on the hot side, but the core components slightly declined, sending mixed signals. Funds have already started to speculate on an October rate hike, but CPI is the real decisive test for the market.
Personal view: The simultaneous liquidity tightening by the US, Japan, and Europe means the biggest hidden risk is a yen carry trade stampede. Once hundreds of billions in carry trade positions are collectively liquidated, all risk assets will face a sharp sell-off. A similar scenario occurred in August 2024, when Bitcoin plunged over 20% in a single week, and current on-exchange positions are even more crowded than back then. #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
Oracle's revenue surged 30% year-over-year, with cloud infrastructure continuing its rapid growth, and remaining performance obligations reaching $664 billion. However, Q1 capital expenditures directly hit $28.5 billion. Adobe's performance was also strong, with AI-related ARR soaring 150% year-over-year, yet the market still didn't buy it, and the stock fell in after-hours trading. The market no longer buys the "AI story." Having orders is not enough, having users is not enough; ultimately, it comes down to revenue, profit, and cash flow. This logic is actually the same as in the crypto world: behind $BTC and $SNDK, it's not stories but real capital and fundamentals. In the end, a bull market can tell stories, but it must ultimately be paid for with real money. Whether AI spending to drive growth can continue depends not only on tech stock valuations but will also directly affect the entire market's risk appetite. Going forward, whoever can deliver results will feast; those who only tell stories will eventually be exposed by the market.PPI flashing red, $347 million liquidated: Is CPI the last lifeline for the bulls?
Everyone on the planet is waiting for a data release tonight. As of 09:00 on September 11, this topic has over 3.82 million views and 877 posts.
Data: US August PPI year-on-year 5.4%, exceeding expectations; core PPI month-on-month 0.2%, slightly below expectations; official forecasts expect tonight's CPI overall year-on-year around 3.4%, core about 2.4%. The pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen from about 60% to 70%. $BTC once dropped below 77,000, with $347 million liquidated in 24 hours, longs accounting for 86%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield rising to 5.353%.
My view: bearish bias. I won't go long before CPI is released; if BTC fails to reclaim above 78,500, I maintain bearish bias; if core CPI month-on-month drops below 0.1% and the coin price recovers above 78,500, I will turn bullish. I won't chase the first candlestick after the data release; a wick and shakeout are inevitable.
Which side are you on? Reply "Long" or "Short" + your reason.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#PPI, CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days Did the market react a bit too early to the PPI this time?
#PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days
As soon as the PPI data came out tonight, the market exploded: BTC dropped to around 77,000, ETH retreated to 2430, and ZEC was even worse, turning the high elasticity of altcoins into a high-altitude free fall.
But the data itself is not "completely off the charts." Overall PPI year-on-year is 5.4%, which is indeed hot; but the core month-on-month is only 0.2%, even lower than expected. Simply put, a large part of this heat is driven by oil and diesel prices.
So I'm not rushing to call a bear market now. Tonight the market is trading on "inflation possibly returning," and tomorrow night’s CPI will decide whether this hit was justified or not.
If CPI heats up again and US Treasury yields rise, high elasticity assets like ETH and ZEC will still get hit; if core CPI cools down, tonight’s move looks more like an early exit of leveraged players.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
$BTC
$ETH [Morning Watch] CPI Judgment Night: BTC around 76750
Fact: Last night, ECB raised interest rates by 25bp combined with US PPI YoY at 5.4%, exceeding expectations, market cap retraced about 2%, with long liquidation scale in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, watch August CPI (overall expected YoY about 3.4% / MoM about +0.4%, core about 2.4% / MoM about +0.2%).
Judgment: Overall can be pushed up by oil prices; what really changes next week's FOMC narrative is the core. Short-term volatility ≠ trend.
Vote: Core overheated / Core moderate / Reduce positions and wait for printing638 billion orders pending fulfillment: Oracle and Adobe report, is AI burning money or printing money?
The hottest topic on the planet today is earnings reports: Oracle and Adobe reported after the US market close on September 10.
As of 09:00 on September 11, this topic has over 37.87 million views and 7,241 posts.
Data: Oracle has $638 billion in remaining performance obligations; the market cares about conversion speed and cash flow, not demand; OCI grew 93% last quarter, with some expecting 112%-127% growth this quarter. Adobe is looking to see if AI products like Firefly and GenStudio can bring incremental subscriptions while maintaining profit margins. Some believe the market no longer buys AI stories, only revenue and cash flow.
My view: cautious. If Oracle's OCI growth misses expectations, I lean bearish on the AI infrastructure chain; if growth meets targets and cash flow guidance improves, I turn bullish. Apple’s foldable screen has been released, AI competition is extending to terminals, and pressure on tool software will only increase.
Which side are you on? Reply "bullish" or "bearish" + your reason.
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
#EarningsObserver Data volatility has decreased, and now is the moment to test the true $MarsCoin narrative. Can these warriors hold on? Let's look at the data from September 11, 2026. #MarsCoin Top 40 holders data changes: Binance Spot: inflow 6.26% Gate: outflow 26.68% Mexc: outflow 2.12% New entries in top 40: total 4 people, 2 increased positions to enter, 1 transferred in, 1 is from KuCoin. Dropped out of top 40: total 4 people, 2 fully exited, 1 reduced position by half, 1 transferred to Binance. Top 40 increased positions: total 7 people, 5 transferred in, 2 increased positions. Top 40 decreased positions: total 3 people. MarsCoin daily key summary: This time, 4 new people entered the top 40, 2 increased positions with small increments; 4 people dropped out of the top 40, 2 fully exited, the address that transferred to Binance likely reduced positions; although more people increased positions in the top 40, most were transfers, only 2 actually increased positions with small increments; the 3 who decreased positions did so with small amounts. From the data, the market is basically showing low volatility, in a sideways consolidation. Changes among top addresses are minimal, with few increasing or decreasing positions. Exchanges show no major changes. Reaching this point tests the true narrative; those remaining likely believe in the Mars narrative. Since there are no major short-term positives, will these diamond hands succeed? Let's watch closely the solo battle and look forward to future data changes. Everyone, see you in the next MarsCoin data update Life is no fairytale, and traders always think they're geniuses right up until their Stop Loss gets wiped out. Everyone was waiting for CPI and PPI to cool down so $BTC could pump straight through the roof, only for the price to drop dead as soon as the "perfect" news dropped. Macro indicators say inflation is heading in the right direction, but looking at real money flows gives you a slight panic attack as Spot ETFs suddenly flip negative with tens of millions of dollars in net outflows. Big in2. Regulation: Paradigm Shift from "Court Rulings" to "Safe Harbor Path"
In August 2025, Ripple and the SEC officially withdrew their appeals, ending a four-year legal battle. Judge Torres's core ruling was upheld: XRP itself is not a security, but institutional sales crossed the line. The case was closed, but a fundamental question remained unresolved—there were no rules telling issuers how to exit security status without a judge's ruling.
On August 18, 2026, the SEC provided an answer. The proposed "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules" established two exemption paths: a single issuance up to $5 million within four years, or up to $75 million every 12 months, while also setting up a "safe harbor mechanism"—once the issuer has completed or permanently ceased the key managerial efforts promised under the investment contract, the token can officially exit security classification.
The legal basis for this mechanism is the "key managerial efforts" test standard established by the Supreme Court in the Howey case. This move by the SEC effectively codifies into federal regulations the judgment logic that judges clarified case by case through litigation in the Ripple case. $XRP $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 BTC is currently facing the most uncomfortable combination in recent days: BTC ETF saw a single-day outflow of about $258M, Brent crude surged to $107.63, the 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and after the PPI, the market pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike next week to about 70%. If tonight's CPI comes in hot again, BTC around 78K will likely continue to undergo macro pressure testing. 先说新闻： 英国上议院 9 月 9 日以 194 票赞成、138 票反对，通过了一项数字资产战略修正案。要求英国财政部在《金融服务和市场法案》正式生效后 12 个月内，制定并公开一份国家级数字资产战略，覆盖： 加密资产 稳定币 代币化证券 数字支付、清算和金融基础设施 创新、投资者保护 加密企业获得银行和支付服务 但注意：这还不是正式落地政策。法案仍要回到下议院，下议院可以接受、修改甚至删除这项修正案。 真正重要的不是“英国支持加密货币” 而是英国议会开始公开讨论一个问题： 英国到底只是监管加密货币，还是准备建立数字资产经济？ 这两个方向差别非常大。 过去英国对 Crypto 最大的问题并不是完全禁止，而是监管一直在走，但战略很慢。 企业不知道未来几年规则怎么变，银行对 Crypto 公司开户谨慎，稳定币发行商也不知道英国到底想不想抢这个市场。 结果就是一个很尴尬的局面： 美国在抢 Crypto 金融中心，欧盟已经有 MiCA，香港、新加坡、阿联酋也在抢数字资产企业，而伦敦这个传统金融中心反而有点慢。 这次 194:138 的投票，本质上就是英国议会内部开始出现压力： 再不做国家级战略Spot ETFs were still attracting funds a few days ago, but in the past two days, about $160 million has flowed out, with institutional momentum clearly slowing down. Coupled with the Middle East pushing up oil prices and rising US Treasury yields, risk assets are collectively under pressure. BTC is temporarily following macro trends, not due to any on-chain issues. Once inflation data is released and rate hike expectations are fully priced in, capital will choose its direction again. $BTC The current price is stuck below 80,000, consolidating. The 81,000–83,000 range above is a pressure zone where long-term holding costs, ETF profits and losses, and liquidation walls overlap. Selling pressure is actually relatively low, but buying hasn't caught up either. Next, watch the CPI and the September 16 interest rate decision; volatility will increase once the data is released. A range-based strategy is more practical than a one-sided prediction: buy near 75k, reduce positions near 82k. $BTC Up 25% in August, then giving back to around 76,000 as September begins is very normal. Historically, the "Black September" has a low success rate, and with the added factors of interest rate hike expectations and two days of ETF net outflows, it's reasonable for funds to take a wait-and-see approach first. In the short term, watch if 75,000–77,000 can hold; if it holds, it's a healthy correction; if it breaks, then we talk about structure. Don't chase highs at 81,000, and don't sell in panic. $BTC September 11 RAY Watch｜Locking liquidity, but not the price
This morning, RAY's 24-hour spot increase on OKX was about 28%. The price moves fast, which can easily lead people to misunderstand the protocol's "lock-up" as a bullish sign. But Raydium's Burn & Earn locks liquidity positions, not the RAY price at a certain level.
This feature allows CPMM or CLMM positions to be permanently placed into program custody, and the underlying liquidity cannot be withdrawn. The term "Burn" does not mean these assets are simply destroyed. Fees can still accumulate, and the right to claim them is carried by a transferable Fee Key NFT: whoever holds it owns the corresponding claim rights. Simply holding RAY does not automatically grant income corresponding to this certificate.
Here, two things are separated: the ability to withdraw liquidity and the right to claim fees. The former can be permanently restricted, while the latter can still be transferred. This helps understand the pool's commitments but does not prove that trading demand will continue, nor does it eliminate token price decline, contract vulnerabilities, or project operational risks.
The lock is irreversible. Once concentrated liquidity positions are locked, the range cannot be adjusted, and losing the Fee Key may permanently forfeit the fee claim rights. Beyond watching RAY's popularity, it is more important to distinguish the boundaries between protocol functions, specific position rights, and the token itself.
$RAY #RAY
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.🟠 BTC｜比特币 • 最新价格：约 $78,100 • 24小时表现：约 -1.5% • 日内区间：约 $77,950 – $78,550 • 近期表现：过去几周比特币仍维持较强走势，但短线进入震荡整理阶段 • 关键位置：$78,000 附近成为当前市场的重要支撑区域 数据显示，BTC 在9月初一度突破 $82,000，随后出现回调，目前重新回到 $78,000 附近。 🔵 ETH｜以太坊 • 最新价格：约 $2,460 • 24小时表现：约 -1.4% • 日内区间：约 $2,456 – $2,479 • 近期趋势：相比8月中旬仍处于明显高位，但短期同样受到市场风险情绪影响 ETH 在8月中下旬曾快速上涨，最高一度超过 $2,550，目前回落至约 $2,460。 🔄 BTC / ETH 汇率 目前约为： 1 ETH ≈ 0.03194 BTC 1 BTC ≈ 31.31 ETH 过去一个月，ETH 相对 BTC 的表现依然较为强势，ETH/BTC 汇率近期维持在约 0.032 BTC 附近。 📰 今日市场重点新闻 🇺🇸 美联储利率预期成为市场焦点 市场正在密切关注下周的Visa's annualized stablecoin backend settlement has crossed $20B. The more interesting shift is using settlement receivables to fund daily float through stablecoin credit lines.
My read: the opportunity is working-capital efficiency. No defaults so far is encouraging, but resilience under funding stress would be a stronger test of whether this model can scale reliably.
#VisaStablecoin20B A few days ago, a guy bought 75,000 FIL at $0.8, recharging his faith in FIL. I think he firmly believes FIL can return to its peak. Back when FIL dropped to $20, I thought the same. Later, I realized that FIL miners face difficulties mining and can only break even by selling FIL, which made me understand why FIL's price can't surge significantly.
Because once FIL rises a bit, miners holding a large amount of FIL will rush to cash out, mainly fearing they won't get a good price if they wait too long—this is human nature and unavoidable. I don't know how long that guy who bought 75,000 FIL at $0.8 will hold on.
In short, the guy who spent 2 million buying FIL at $2.3 last time has already disappeared, so I think $0.78 for FIL might not be the bottom. If the halving in October can't revive the price, I dare not imagine what will happen to FIL's price afterward. In the crypto world, I believe it's very important to view narratives and visions rationally and stay clear-headed in time.PPI is just the appetizer; CPI is the feast.
A 5.4% PPI is already in view, energy prices continue to push up transportation costs, and the market's probability of betting on a rate hike in September has risen to 70%.
Over the past two days, many traders stayed up late into the night to adjust and place orders, with market sentiment highly tense. But now is not the time for panic; tonight's CPI is the key to determining the short-term direction.
If CPI continues to exceed expectations, $BTC will bear the brunt, $ETH will be under pressure, and the gains from the earlier rebound may be quickly withdrawn, further tightening risk asset liquidity.
Conversely, if core CPI falls, the market will quickly shift to a more relaxed game, with BTC leading the upward trend and ETH following higher. Investors who just cut losses in the morning may want to chase gains in the afternoon.
However, the recent decline has already priced in most hawkish expectations, with many short positions already positioned a week ago, leaving limited profit potential.
Therefore, even if CPI is slightly above expectations, the market may not collapse immediately; the final trend will depend on whether US Treasuries and the US dollar can support this data.
After watching the market for a long time, you realize that betting on data early is meaningless. Before the data was released, everyone had their opinion, but once the results came out, most people would be proven wrong by the market. What truly matters is not the numbers themselves, but the market reaction: if negative news appears but BTC and ETH fail to fall and quickly recover their losses, this signal is far more valuable than a ten-page analysis. #PPI. CPI releases consecutively, the Fed faces two critical days 9.11 Morning Quick Report 📝
BTC near 77000, dropped again after last night's PPI release, sliding down from 78500. ETH at 2440-2460. The market is calm, volume is low, typically waiting for data.
US Treasury set debt buyback limit at 6 billion, market had expected 8-10 billion, so it was below expectations. US bonds fell instead of rising, 10-year yield broke through 4.84%, hitting a new high since November 2023.
ECB raised rates by 25 basis points, as expected. The statement specifically mentioned Middle East conflicts keeping inflation above target, with possible further moves ahead.
Brent crude broke $100. US-Iran tanker clashes escalated, rewriting supply expectations. When oil rises, inflation trades return.
Gold reclaimed 4400. The dollar's three-day decline helped, safe-haven demand also present.
PPI annual rate 5.4%, slightly above expectations. September FOMC rate hike probability dropped to around 60%.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, US August CPI. This is the last hard inflation data before the rate decision. If high, rate hike expectations will increase; if low, risk assets can breathe. Pricing depends on actual outcome.
Crypto: Red September is still following the old path. Historical win rate is poor, and this year is compounded by oil prices, bond yields, and rate hike expectations. BTC's correlation with gold has risen again; stock market logic doesn't apply for now.
Technically, the 50-day moving average is about to cross above the 200-day, a golden cross may confirm in the next couple of days. The signal exists, but don't treat it as a holy grail; macro factors can easily crush the pattern.
$BTC $ETH Oracle rises, Adobe falls: The AI bull market isn't over, but the era of "rising just by touching AI" is over!
Oracle and Adobe's earnings reports illustrate one thing:
The market no longer buys into the AI story; it only rewards companies that can turn AI into revenue and profit.
Let's look at Oracle first.
Q1 revenue was $19.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% year-over-year, and the FY2027 full-year revenue target was raised to $90 billion.
After the earnings release, due to continued growth in AI infrastructure demand, orders, revenue, and future guidance were all strong enough, leading to an after-hours rise of about 7%.
Now let's look at Adobe.
Revenue was $6.76 billion, up 13% year-over-year, AI-related ARR grew over 150% year-over-year, but after-hours it actually fell 2.3%.
The market is starting to ask: With AI growth so fast, why is overall revenue growth only 13%?
Having AI does not equal growth; having growth does not equal profit.
When screening AI companies, I suggest looking at four points:
· Whether AI has converted into real orders and revenue;
· Whether there is pricing power to increase ARPU and profit margins;
· Whether capital expenditures are controllable and revenue can cover investments;
· Whether cash flow has improved accordingly.
The AI bull market is not over, but the market will only reward companies that truly turn AI into money.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
$xORCL $xADBE $xAAPL The market probability of an interest rate hike this month is over 70%. I believe the rate will remain unchanged this month, but the statements will be more hawkish. Because it is still early, a slightly higher inflation rate is normal and not yet at the level that requires immediate intervention. This is typical of Walsh's style: either decide not to intervene and leave room for the market to play its role, or intervene decisively when necessary. If inflation rises quickly, the probability of a one-time 50 basis point rate hike next month will be higher.
The price of SanDisk is relatively less affected by whether interest rates rise or not because it has become a necessity. Compared to other varieties, its performance will appear more valuable. ZEC will more likely follow an independent trend; its major clients are not retail investors, nor is it a pump-and-dump scheme. The narrative of Bitcoin insurance will withstand scrutiny, and I believe its current market value is undervalued. $BTC $ZEC $SNDK PPI 已经给市场敲响警钟——美国8月PPI同比上涨 5.4%，月率增长 0.4%，能源成本上升成为重要推动因素。与此同时，美债收益率持续走高，市场对美联储进一步收紧政策的担忧明显升温。 📊 接下来真正的重头戏是今晚 8:30 AM ET 美国CPI。 可以重点关注这几个情景： 🟢 CPI < 3.2% → 通胀降温信号明显 → 降低市场对进一步加息的担忧 → 美元和美债收益率压力可能缓解 → BTC、ETH、SOL 等风险资产有机会迎来反弹 🟡 CPI 约 3.4% → 基本符合市场预期 → 市场可能先维持震荡 → BTC大概率继续围绕关键支撑位反复博弈 🔴 CPI > 3.6% → 通胀明显偏热 → 美联储政策预期进一步转鹰 → 美元、美债收益率可能继续走强 → 加密市场面临更大的下行压力 目前市场预期美国8月CPI同比约 3.4%，核心CPI同比约 2.4%；而在PPI公布后，市场对美联储下周加息的押注已经明显升高。 ⚠️ 另外，原油价格近期持续上涨，Brent一度突破 $109，10年期美债收益率逼近 5%，这意味着即使CPI符合预期，市场也未必立即转为全面Risk-O#PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days Last night PPI came out, the monthly rate was 0.4% as expected, but the annual rate of 5.4% is still high, and the previous value was revised upward. Energy, especially diesel, surged sharply, directly pushing costs up. Today we continue to watch CPI, and the market is already pricing in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. Two consecutive days of inflation data will directly determine the direction of the September rate decision. Oil prices are still hovering above 100, inflation stickiness is more stubborn than expected, so don't expect a rate cut at least in this round. $BTC On September 10, the crypto market was hit by a double headwind from macroeconomic factors: • European Central Bank Rate Hike: The ECB announced a 25 basis point rate hike, marking its second rate hike this year, aimed at further curbing persistently high inflation. • U.S. PPI exceeded expectations: The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, with core PPI up 4.6% year-on-year (expected 4.5%) and overall PPI up 5.4% (expected 5.1%). These figures intensified market concerns about rising inflation, and the market responded quickly. This was especially evident in the Bitcoin futures market: within just one hour, active selling volume on Binance surged to over $1.4 billion. This sudden sell-off pressure in the futures market reflects investors' genuine concerns; They tend to hedge by betting on Bitcoin's price decline. Along with this market volatility, Bitcoin-related positions saw over $60 million liquidated in less than an hour. How to expect tomorrow's CPI? "High PPI and low CPI" is relatively unlikely in the macroeconomy and is a staged atypical divergence phenomenon (commonly known as "widening scissors gap"). Looking at long-term historical data, the U.S. PPI and CPI have a very high positive correlation and long-term cointegration relationship, with the vast majority of the time they move in the same direction. However, in specific macroeconomic cycles, this "high PPI, low⚠️ 宏观压力再次成为加密市场短线最大的变量。 美国8月PPI同比上涨至 5.4%，月率增长 0.4%，能源价格尤其是柴油价格明显走高，通胀粘性重新引发市场对美联储继续收紧政策的担忧。目前市场对下一次会议加息的预期明显升温，CPI将成为进一步确认方向的关键数据。 与此同时，BTC在 $77,000-$79,000 附近反复震荡，多空双方都没有形成绝对优势。 ETF资金方面，9月8日和9月9日美国现货BTC ETF连续出现净流出，9月9日单日净流出约 1.2亿美元，此前9月3日还曾出现超过 7亿美元 的强劲净流入，资金情绪明显出现快速切换。 📌 短线关键位置： 如果 BTC 能够守住 $76,500-$77,000，那么当前更像是高位震荡蓄势，后续仍有机会重新挑战 $80,000-$82,000 区域。 如果跌破 $76,000，市场恐慌可能进一步扩大，下一步重点关注 $73,500-$74,500；若这个区域也失守，则不排除回踩 $70,000-$72,000。 🔥 今晚真正决定方向的仍然是美国CPI。 如果CPI低于市场预期，通胀降温可能重新强化降息预期，美元和美债收益率压力缓解Early morning of September 11
Today, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets both opened lower and weakened, with a clear decline in risk appetite. The Nikkei 225 initially fell 1.52%, with the decline widening during the session. Major weights such as Japanese chip stocks and SoftBank sharply corrected, and Japanese government bond yields rose, suppressing stock market valuations. The South Korean KOSPI opened with a steep drop of 3.29%, with storage chips across the board plummeting. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led the market decline, with the semiconductor sector becoming the main drag.
External factors are the main disturbance. Overnight, US PPI data exceeded expectations, boosting the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. US Treasury yields rose, US tech stocks closed lower, and foreign capital withdrew from highly volatile growth stocks. Coupled with a sharp rise in international oil prices, Japan and South Korea, as energy-importing countries, face rising concerns about imported inflation, further suppressing risk assets.#Stacks launches institutional BTC staking program, first batch of 250 BTC locked
**Latest Data**
Stacks officially launches the Genesis Bond institutional staking plan, with four institutions locking a total of 250 BTC, and staking rewards starting to be distributed from September 17. Market price $BTC 76950, falling for two consecutive days, overall market risk appetite declines, most funds choose to wait and watch for inflation data release.
Market Consensus
Optimists believe that institutional participation in BTC yield generation will open new capital inflows, which is beneficial for long-term asset valuation uplift;
Cautious views point out that the scale is relatively small this time, making it difficult to directly drive the market in the short term, mostly a sentiment-level positive, and unlikely to offset the current macro adjustment pressure.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Native BTC staking is a new narrative, representing traditional institutions exploring allocation methods beyond spot and ETFs. However, in the short term, market control still lies with inflation data and US Treasury trends, and a single project’s positive news is unlikely to reverse the current adjustment pace.
$SOL
$SNDK
Personal View (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Such news can be regarded as a long-term industry signal, not a reason for short-term entry. Priority now is to control position size and wait for macro uncertainties to settle before taking action. In the previous message, I was still worried whether ETF funds would weaken along with BTC price decline.
Now the latest data is out: BTC funds are indeed still flowing out, but ETH and SOL are not withdrawing together. This change actually makes me more attentive.
$BTC net outflow is $120.2 million,
$ETH net inflow is $34.7 million,
$SOL net inflow is $11.2 million.
Seeing this data, my first reaction is not "institutions are starting to exit Crypto," but rather whether funds are changing direction?
Because if it were a full-scale risk aversion, I would expect BTC, ETH, and SOL to all flow out together.
But now BTC is still flowing out, while ETH and SOL have turned positive first.
However, I won’t directly say "funds have started rotating" for the time being.
Because on the previous trading day, all three actually still had net outflows; so far, only one day shows such a clear divergence, and the evidence is insufficient.
I will continue to observe for 2–3 more trading days.
If BTC continues to flow out, while ETH and SOL keep flowing in, then I will take the "funds rotating from BTC to other assets" logic more seriously.
If ETH and SOL soon follow BTC in flowing out, then this is more likely just a single-day fund disturbance.
Previously, I was worried about "whether funds would weaken along with BTC."
Now I want to confirm: are funds actually leaving Crypto, or just unwilling to stay in BTC any longer? With the recent rebound in US inflation and employment data, the market has resumed trading expectations for Fed rate hikes. Last night's August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, clearly fueling market concerns about another Fed rate hike. For Bitcoin, rising interest rates are certainly not good news. But looking back at past cycles, one thing emerges: Fed rate hikes do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will fall, and rate cuts do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will rise. 2017 is the most typical example. That year, the Fed raised rates three times, but Bitcoin was not significantly suppressed; instead, it rose from about $1,000 at the beginning of the year and peaked close to $20,000 by year-end. If you simply follow the logic of rate hikes negatively affecting Bitcoin, this market rally is hard to explain. Although the financial environment at the time began to tighten, interest rates remained very low, and market risk appetite was very high. Meanwhile, the crypto market entered a phase of rapid expansion, with massive capital flowing in, and Bitcoin's own upward momentum far outpaced the pressure from interest rate changes. The truly obvious tightening cycle came in 2018. The Federal Reserve raised rates four times throughout the year, while Bitcoin fell continuously from its late 2017 high, eventually entering a bear market. But this round of decline cannot be entirely attributed to rate hikes. The frenzied rally in 2017 itself accumulated a large bubble, with leveraged funds retreating, market sentiment reversal, and problems within the crypto industry all driving prices down. The situation in 2020 was completely opposite. After the pandemic broke out, the Fed cut rates consecutively in March 2020, lowering ratesLast night, the PPI exceeded expectations, and historically, the probability of tonight's CPI exceeding expectations is also quite high. The expectation of interest rate hikes has been continuously rising. However, Trump's choice of Walsh is not for raising rates, and ultimately the Federal Reserve's independence might be affected, so actual rate hikes may not happen.
Therefore, from tonight's CPI until the 9/17 rate decision meeting, there may be continuous speculation about rate hikes, causing the market to dip. During this period, if there is a sharp drop, it is an excellent opportunity to gradually replenish spot positions that haven't been fully filled.On one hand, oil prices are hitting BTC, while on the other, Iran is being pushed toward BTC
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算
The more you look at this, the more surreal it becomes.
US sanctions are tightening, making it increasingly difficult for Iran to receive money and buy goods, so they have to start exploring bringing BTC and USDT onto the foreign trade settlement table.
But on the other side, once smoke rises from the Strait of Hormuz, oil and diesel prices push PPI higher, and BTC takes a hit first due to interest rate hike expectations.
It's like the same conflict: one hand is pressing down on BTC's head, while the other is handing BTC a business card.
But don't rush to shout "global adoption" just yet. How much can actually be settled, through which channels, and whether USDT will be frozen are all tough questions. Right now, it feels more like the story is taking off, but the real scale is still tying shoelaces on the ground.
In the short term, watch oil prices and CPI: if oil keeps surging, BTC and ETH will both struggle; in the long term, if this cross-border settlement system really takes off, it won't just be a story anymore—people will be forced by reality to use crypto assets.
This weight is heavier than shouting "digital gold" a hundred times.
$BTC $ETH $CL #PPI and CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days Brothers, last night the PPI data came out, and the market voted with its feet directly.
August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, much higher than the expected 5.3%, and the previous value was also revised up from 4.7% to 4.8%. Core PPI rose only 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, appearing "hot on the surface but warm inside." But the market doesn't care about this at all, trading directly on the basis that "inflation is still high."
Brent crude oil $BZ rebounded above $100 intraday yesterday, the first time since July 23. The pressure on oil prices has not fully transmitted to the PPI yet; the real impact is still on the way. Tonight there is also CPI, with the market expecting an overall year-on-year of 3.4% and core year-on-year of 2.4%. If core CPI falls as expected, it means inflation is still cooling down slowly; if it exceeds expectations, a rate hike in September is basically locked in.
After the data came out, the market reacted immediately. BTC $BTC fell below 77,000, US stocks declined, the 30-year US Treasury yield soared to 5.28%, hitting a 19-year high. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 54% to 71.3%. On Polymarket, the rate hike probability also rose from 54% to 61%. Gold $XAUT and Bitcoin fell in sync, with funds withdrawing from interest-free assets.
Tonight's CPI is the real highlight. If core CPI unexpectedly rebounds, rate hike expectations will continue to heat up! @OKX星球