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How much more can $NEAR rise?
NEAR has increased by one and a half times in a month, and the comment section is full of calculations on how much more it can go up. But if you break down this bullish candle, the rise is actually blood forced out of the shorts, not new money actively building a base position.
In the past 24 hours, it pulled from 5.2 to 5.9, with trading volume hitting 1 billion. It looks fierce, but breaking down the volume shows that the latter part was shorts being squeezed out — the entire network had 115 million liquidations that day, with shorts accounting for 66%, and NEAR itself had over 6 million shorts trapped. This kind of rise is called a short squeeze, not accumulation. Once the short squeeze stops, the price lacks that spark.
The structure has also peaked. The hourly RSI hit 78, the daily chart is overbought, perpetual contracts hold over 1.3 billion, and funding rates have turned positive, with longs fully leveraged at the top. The resistance from 5.92 to 6.0 is the intraday previous high, and from 6.2 to 6.5 is all the profit-taking accumulated from this round of rising from the 2-dollar range. To push higher, real money must hold this stack, not rely on short covering.
Supporting the narrative are Intents buybacks and Bitwise's ETF, but the ETF has only accumulated over 70 million, accounting for 1% of market cap, and on-chain buybacks monthly convert to just over 10 million — a drop in the bucket compared to the daily 1 billion volume. The rise is driven by the story, not by money taking the baton.
So the question "how much more can it rise" does not have the answer on the bulls' side. If it can't break through 5.92, this bullish candle pulled up by short covering will turn into bulls stepping on each other. Shorts are waiting for that moment when RSI turns down from overbought and positions start to decrease.APT Unlock Landing: First surged to 0.9655, then the unlock dumped it down to 0.8376, but it was bought back to 0.9, money is voting with its feet to verify support.
Yesterday's message said "Watch for volume to hold above 0.9, still a bullish realization with a pullback to 0.89," and today's answer basically came out: The four-year unlock ended today, the market first surged to 0.9655, then chips were truly dumped, once dropping to 0.8376, but did not break the level, then buyers stepped in to bring it back to 0.9010 — meaning the 0.89-0.90 support zone was truly tested with real money.
Market view: Current price 0.9010, basically flat in 24h, daily high-low range 0.83 to 0.97, trading volume 5.46 million USDT; technically RSI corrected from yesterday's overbought 75 to 50.7, price returned to the Bollinger middle band, MACD just turned up below zero line, sentiment and position cleaner than yesterday.
Logic hasn't worsened: After the four-year unlock ended, monthly releases cut by 60% down to 4.54 million tokens, staking annualized yield lowered, 2.1 billion hard cap, 210 million locked, inflation expectation is downward; today's surge, pullback, and rebound indicate the reduced supply expectation remains, just short-term profit-taking and unlock chips are rotating.
Next to watch: 0.8906 to 0.8953 is the support zone, 0.9416 is resistance; buy orders occupy 76% of the order book, but 5.46 million USDT volume isn't thick, avoid heavy positions. DYOR, not investment advice.
#APT #Aptos #Layer1Just pulled the latest contract positions of Brother Maji from the chain, and after reading it, I can only sigh that the courage behind these positions is really huge.
On BTC, he opened a 40x short with 243 BTC contracts, currently floating profit nearly $260,000, and the funding fee can still bring in over $50,000. As long as BTC doesn't suddenly surge, this position is like a stable cash machine.
ETH is a 25x long with over 8,700 ETH trapped inside, currently floating a loss of more than $400,000, and still paying continuous funding fees. The entry price was 2546; although there is still some distance from the liquidation price, the losses are slowly expanding.
The most intense is HYPE, a 5x short with 230,000 contracts, floating loss directly at $4.86 million. Fortunately, shorts are clustered, and the funding fee is reversed, bringing in $1.02 million, meaning the shorts in the market pay him rent daily. Entry price 63.9, liquidation price 106.6.
In short, his strategy is to earn on one side and lose on the other. The profits from the BTC short are used to cover losses from the ETH long and HYPE short, using profitable positions to subsidize trapped ones.
However, high-leverage hedging is not as stable as imagined. Once the market moves into an extreme one-sided trend, one side makes huge profits while the other faces cascading liquidations, and the risk instantly magnifies.
Many are discussing whether Brother Maji’s heavy positions can hold until the end. Just observe the whale’s positions; ordinary people must not copy this. This kind of strategy has a very low tolerance for errors.The account is experiencing extreme highs and lows again, with $ETH desperately printing money upfront, $DOGE bleeding heavily behind the scenes, and $LAB joining the chaos, dragging the whole portfolio straight into the ditch.
$ETH ETH
Opened at 2714.59, current price 2491.23.
Full position 20X, unrealized profit +118U, ROI +179%.
This time, ETH finally showed some toughness, plummeting all the way down but holding the account up alone. Still holding, targeting 2400, just don’t mess up.
$DOGE DOGE (a pure bloodsucker)
Opened at 0.08272, current price 0.084647.
Full position 20X, unrealized loss -393U, ROI -45%.
This one is totally disrespectful, pushing up against the trend, eating up all the profits made by ETH and then some. The position is heavy, margin is tight; if it keeps jumping around, I’ll decisively cut losses and admit defeat, no stubborn holding.
$LAB LAB (the unlucky newbie)
Opened at 0.05375, current price 0.0538682.
Isolated margin 10X, unrealized loss -14U, ROI -3.34%.
A small new short position, got pushed right after entry, currently taking hits. Fortunately, it’s isolated margin, so losses are limited. Holding for now to observe; if it doesn’t work out, will exit.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？ Fifteen-minute weak divergence, one-hour MACD underwater, is this how you convince yourself to be bearish? Those trapped short sellers probably think the same. But why don't you look at the four-hour chart? You can enter long positions around 83200 and 2520. Asymmetric odds, extremely high risk-reward ratio In this round, can we see a broad rally instead of just one coin rising?
$STRK has already shown strong performance. It rose about 34% in the past 24 hours and about 132% over the past week, making this surge truly remarkable.
But now I want to distinguish whether it is running its own independent trend or if it will lead more similar coins. If only it keeps surging fast while other coins respond limitedly, we cannot directly conclude that the entire market direction deserves higher expectations.
A single coin's strength can continue, but for the market to spread, more evidence is needed. I acknowledge its rise while watching if the strength gap narrows. If the gap keeps widening, it means picking coins remains more important than broadly favoring one direction.
$ARB has reacted but hasn't fully shaken off the intra-week decline. It rose about 6.5% in the last 24 hours but still fell about 1.4% over the week.
This rebound is worth watching; next, the goal is to turn the recovery into new gains. We cannot assume that just because it moved along, it can replicate the gains of stronger coins later; each coin's buying power must prove itself.
$OP's performance is more consistent. In the evening update, it rose about 3.7% in 24 hours, about 5.4% over the week, and about 45% over the month.
It’s not as dramatic, but it’s up daily, weekly, and monthly. I’m more focused on whether it can maintain this pace going forward. If several coins strengthen one after another, the coverage of this rally will truly expand, rather than it being just the excitement of one coin.7u挑战一个亿！
第52天
本金7u，目标一个亿
目前:3750u
生存成本:2950u
可用资金:800u+
昨天跑了5公里，浑身舒畅。
这两天看了一个孙哥的对话，他被前女友的前男友，那比河马还粗的腿，深深刺痛了，让他从此立志－－一定要练成薄肌版的孙哥。
对话中孙哥非常坦诚，也非常敞亮，最关键的是他提出一个观点:身体就是个人的服务器，必须主动升级。
我认为他说的太对了，所以现在我不仅要跑步，还要做下蹲，臀桥，俯卧撑锻炼出薄肌。这是牛市，只有强大的身体资本才能走到最后。
资金层面的资本，第35天的时候，我的可用资金还有1900u，而现在只有800u了。
算了一下我的生存成本，每天差不多60u。如果不继续赚钱，800u，算下来大概还有13天。
合约和meme都是放大器，放大器需要本金。而这半个月里，唯一给我输血的，是写内容。所以我还的继续坐在这里写这条。
比特币$BTC 多单我还拿着，回撤了不少；
$PUMP 多单亏了点，也还好；
$PONS 各项基本数据还是很差，做多还下不手；
持续关注ena和ondo。
如果是你，800u，你会怎么做？PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%. If this comes true, risk asset valuations will come under pressure, with UNI, as a high-beta asset, being the first to be affected. I tend to believe that a short-term rebound will not change the medium-term pressure. From the capital perspective, it rose 3% in 24 hours but the volume was only 9.567 million, indicating weak momentum; the funding rate of 0.003% shows longs are paying a slight premium, with open interest at 5.771 million and no significant increase, reflecting cautious sentiment. The bid-ask ratio is 0.62, with selling pressure dominant. The 1-hour chart is rising but still 2.8% below the high, and the 4-hour chart remains down, 23.41% below the high, indicating the rebound is a correction rather than a reversal. Strategically, lightly short at 7.845 on the rebound, stop loss at 7.935, target 7.505; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 7.455, consider a short-term long, stop loss at 7.385, target 7.685. Keep position size within 10%, with strict stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6%
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $UNI #PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%# If long-term rates really surge to 6%, risk asset valuations will be further pressured, and SKHYNIX will not be able to stand alone. I lean short-term bearish. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both declining; the current price of 1217.7 has fallen 11.85% from the 4-hour high, down 0.7% in 24h, with a turnover of only 39,000. The shrinking volume and slow decline indicate selling pressure is not heavy but support is even weaker. The top 10 buy orders are 321 versus 211 sell orders, with buying temporarily dominant. The funding rate at 0.0331% is still slightly bullish, and open interest is 37,000. Crowded longs become a hidden risk. Light short positions can be tried on a rebound near 1231.5, stop loss at 1243.7, target 1198.3; if it pulls back to 1196.5 and stabilizes, a short-term long can be taken, stop loss at 1183.9, target 1216.4. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$SKHYNIX#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6%
#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6% $SKHYNIX $ETH bounced hard off $2,400 and is holding $2,540 — right above the $2,450–$2,500 zone that just flipped back in bulls' favor. A daily close above $2,500 keeps this bounce alive toward $2,650–$2,750, where September's sellers are stacked. But ETF flows are still bleeding — nine straight outflow days — so every rally stays guilty until proven innocent. Whales stacking 166K ETH underneath is the only real counterweight. Lose $2,450 and the 50-week EMA near $2,382 then $2,225 come into play fast.$ETH I was just complaining with friends about this week's market, but I have to take back my words now, it's a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon ETH rebounded, but the follow-through was insufficient; every rally lacked momentum. While everyone was still watching, the order book already showed signs of weakness. I warned to short, don't get fooled by fake moves.
Risk control is about being rational upfront; cutting losses later is called decisive action.
From 2,572.99 down to 2,542.84, the short position gained +117.45%, those on board must be waking up smiling. Close 80% first, keep 20% to protect the cost price, don't give back profits if it rebounds. Enjoy this gain comfortably, don't be greedy for the last bit.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over pullbacks.
$SOL $ADA #Why is BTC still under pressure despite continuous institutional positioning?
$HYPE has pulled back from the high of over 97 and is now stuck around 87, seemingly being tugged by two forces: "unlock sell pressure" and "buyback support."
From the chart, MA7 has crossed below MA25, indicating a short-term weak trend, but MA99 is still firmly supporting from below, showing that the medium-to-long-term support remains intact. Trading volume has noticeably shrunk in recent days, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious, and no one dares to rush aggressively.
Fundamentally, @HyperliquidX's buyback efforts are indeed strong, with 99% of fees used to buy and burn tokens. In October, a new USDC revenue buyback stream was added, capable of purchasing millions of dollars worth of HYPE daily. However, the problem is that on October 6, 9.92 million tokens (about $336 million) were just unlocked, which is a significant sell pressure. No matter how strong the buyback is, it has to absorb this "massive supply" first.
So my view is: don't chase highs in the short term; wait until it stabilizes above 87.5 before considering entry. If it falls below 84, it may test the 80 support. In the medium to long term, as long as buybacks continue and protocol revenue doesn't collapse, HYPE still holds value, but it must endure this painful unlocking period.
Trading advice: mainly light positions and watch; aggressive traders can try small long positions in the 85-86 range with stop loss below 83; conservative traders should wait for a volume breakout above 90 before following. Don't be blinded by the "buyback" story; the market is currently more afraid of the "unlock" Damocles sword.$ZEC I really quite like its performance these past couple of days
Bitcoin only rose about 1.2% in 48 hours, ETH went up 2.2%, but ZEC quietly surged 5.6%, almost reaching 1300 at its peak
After the previous round of adjustments, the overall market sentiment was still quite hesitant, yet ZEC turned out to be the most active among several mainstream focus targets
I had been watching the price behavior around 1200, and now it seems there is still capital willing to buy in this range for the time being
But to be honest, after such a rise, I'm actually less eager to open a position, especially near 1300, where there have already been quite a few price reactions
I'd rather wait to see if the bulls are still willing to buy on a pullback than rush in just because it’s rising faster than others
In this market, the worst thing is to pick the right direction but die entering the trade
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC, $ETH, and $RNDR can represent three different perspectives: BTC anchors the market cycle, ETH reflects the overall capital flow in the crypto ecosystem, and RNDR gauges the capital sentiment in the crypto AI computing power sector. Observing these three coins together provides a better insight than simply watching the price movements of a single coin to judge whether the Web3AI sector is forming a sustained trend.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me. Opened the market this morning, $LAB long position still in hand, I was stunned for a moment, this service is too on point.😅
During the earlier intraday oscillations, volume didn't dissipate, the pullback held steady, buying gradually strengthened, I judged it was bottoming without breaking the level, and at that time I only gave one tip: hold on, don't scare yourself, the structure is intact.
As a result, it quietly took off, from 0.05204 to 0.05705, a return of +96.07%, directly slapped in the face, feeling great brothers, this wave was really worth the wait.🚀
Take profits on 70% first, don't be greedy for the last bit, move the stop loss on the remaining 30% to the cost price, let the profits grow on their own if it continues to rise, no worries if it pulls back, the main part is already safe.
Now is not the time to chase, wait and watch until a new structure emerges, there will be more opportunities later, the market is not short of chances, what’s lacking is patience, wait for a more stable next shot.
Don't get inflated by profits, don't despair over pullbacks. Have a strategy before the market, discipline during, and reflection after.
$ETH $BNB $ARX ARX, AZTEC, and PLUME, the three brothers hand in hand, all rose more than 14% — this is definitely not a coincidence, this is sector linkage. On-chain privacy + RWA line, funds are collectively flowing back.This sentence emphasizes one of Bitcoin's core principles: miners are responsible for producing blocks, while full nodes are responsible for validating the rules; no matter how powerful the computing power is, it cannot automatically make a block that violates the rules become a valid block.
1. What does this sentence mean?
Large mining companies: responsible for mining
Miners use a large amount of computing equipment to compete to package new blocks, consuming computing power to find blocks that meet the proof-of-work requirements.
Full nodes in dorm rooms: responsible for rule validation
Even if running on an ordinary small computer, as long as it fully verifies the Bitcoin blockchain, it can check whether blocks and transactions comply with consensus rules.
#GoldETFsVsHighRates #OKXTraderVoices $ETH has been making me feel a bit frustrated these days.
It dropped below 2600 on Wednesday and has been hovering around 2500 for the past couple of days. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows for several consecutive trading days, with over 47,000 tokens flowing out on Thursday alone, totaling 190,000 over seven days.
Wow, institutions are really pulling out.
What makes me even more uneasy is another piece of news: Tom Lee from BitMine said that once holdings reach 5% of the circulating supply, they will stop accumulating. This buyer has always been a major ETH purchaser, consistently taking the other side of the trade, meaning that hand that’s been buying will gradually withdraw.
Of course, I don’t know when they’ll be fully invested. But hearing "the biggest buyer is almost done buying" while the price keeps drifting downwards feels off. It doesn’t necessarily mean it will drop, but it’s unsettling.
Technicians say 2500 to 2560 is support, and if that doesn’t hold, it might go down to 2350. Honestly, I’ve heard this kind of talk too many times; support is support only if it holds, otherwise it’s just a number.
I still have some ETH, haven’t sold, but haven’t dared to add more either. Sometimes I wonder if I should reduce my position to a level where I can sleep peacefully.
What about you? Are you holding, selling, or waiting with your ETH?"【Old Chive Observation】 $T
What’s worth watching recently about Threshold is not just the price, but its BTCFi development.
On October 8, T closed around $0.00519; on October 9, trading volume rose from about $2.95 million to about $4.16 million, and the price also returned to $0.00534. On October 10, the price continued to recover to $0.00544, but the trading volume dropped again.
Recent official updates include tBTC security enhancements, FROST/Schnorr signature technology, and Bitcoin product design aimed at institutions. These are mid-term narratives and do not mean this rebound has been confirmed to be triggered by news.
In the short term, first watch if $0.00530 can hold, then see if $0.00560 can break out with volume. Without volume confirmation, do not chase the sharp rise.
Entry: $0.00525–$0.00535 (consider after a stable pullback)
Take profit: $0.00555 / $0.00570 / $0.00590 / $0.00615 / $0.00645
Stop loss: $0.00505 $ZEC stayed flat for two days and then suddenly surged up, specifically targeting the short sellers' stop-loss orders!
It had been flat for a full two days, with short sellers' stop-loss orders densely placed just above the sideways trading range. Today, with a sudden upward pull, these stop-loss orders were triggered one by one, turning short stop-losses into buy orders, naturally pushing the price sharply higher.
Looking at the smart money data, it matches perfectly: the shorts were overall pushed into floating losses, with the profitable ratio dropping to just over 30%. The price was only supported by stop-loss triggers at the top; there was no real buying interest underneath. Now that the stop-loss orders have been cleared, the fuel for the rally is completely burned out.
With the stop-losses cleared, the next move will be a reversal downward! Don’t be scared off by this surge; the area after the stop-loss sweep is actually the most comfortable position for shorts!#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验, macro data may trigger volatility at any time, MMT faces short-term pressure, my judgment is not to heavily bet before the data is released. Current price 0.1762, down 1.3% in 24 hours, turnover 764,000, liquidity is thin. The 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend structure, 7.94% below the high; the 1-hour chart has rebounded but is still 3.61% below the high, the buy/sell ratio in the top 10 order book is 1.00, sellers slightly dominant. Funding rate is only 0.005%, open interest 8,644,000, sentiment is neutral to cautious. It is recommended to lightly short on a rebound to 0.1793, stop loss at 0.1826, target 0.1721; if it falls to 0.1694 and stabilizes, a short-term long position can be taken, stop loss at 0.1662, target 0.1758. Single position should not exceed 5%, strictly stop loss before data release.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$MMT#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $MMT #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验, SNDK as a highly volatile crypto asset cannot remain unaffected. I lean towards a short-term bearish bias with weak rebounds. From the capital perspective, holding 50,000 coin-based positions at the current price of 1583.1, slightly down 0.5%, bulls have not panicked to exit, but volume is only 66,000, showing clear caution from incremental funds. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.90, with sell orders at 258 outweighing buy orders at 233. Both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are trending down and close to the 24h low of 1580.7. The funding rate of 0.0224% remains positive, indicating bulls are paying to hold positions. If macro data leans hawkish, it could easily trigger a short squeeze. Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 1597.3, stop loss at 1613.5, target 1562.4; if volume breaks below 1580.7, follow the trend to short down to 1546.8, stop loss at 1592.6. Single position size should not exceed 5%, halving before and after data release, strictly controlling slippage.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading.——
$SNDK#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 $SNDK CoreWeave enters India, many people miss the key point! The name is very similar to CORE, but it actually validates the most fundamental underlying logic of CORE
Today, many people in the circle saw this news: CoreWeave officially enters India, establishing a 240MW AI computing power data center. At first glance, many mistakenly thought it was related to the CORE project. Let me make it clear: CoreWeave (US stock code CRWV) and CORE (CoreDAO) are completely independent entities, with no equity or technical affiliation, only a highly similar name prefix. But! The greatest value of this news is not the AI computing power expansion itself, but that it once again proves a major fact to the world: computing power miners must find a second income stream beyond mining in the future, which is exactly the core era background of CORE's underlying design.$FIL
FIL clearly recovers, but why does the expansion of the storage market not equal holding returns?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 1.0736—1.2769 USDT, change +9.54%, trading volume about 20.3 million USDT.
The high point of this window expands, and the increase widens, providing evidence of price recovery. Storage capacity, paid usage, protocol revenue, and token demand are not the same variable; capacity increase may initially bring costs rather than net income.
If paid usage and renewals do not follow up, and the rebound loses the middle of the range, the fundamental explanation is first reduced; if real income improves and 1.2769 is recovered and stabilized, then increase the weight of value transmission.DATA is to be fully migrated to the Sui public chain ecosystem. The Sui Foundation directly invested 30 million USD. DATA becomes a native protocol on Sui, with the DATA token unchanged. In summary, Sui completes the AI data infrastructure segment, and DATA gains Sui's funding, ecosystem, and storage resources.
Isn't a 30 million investment for just a 10% price increase a bit too little? 🚨 Something very strange is happening!
The S&P 500 hits new highs every day!
But look at what's underneath:
Total US stock market value: $81.6 trillion!
US GDP: $32.6 trillion!
The stock market is now 2.5 times the entire US economy!
The numbers just don't add up:
Why is the stock market getting fatter while the underlying economy is getting weaker?!
Almost no one is connecting these dots!
The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted!
The biggest companies hold the largest weight in the index!
So every dollar flowing into passive S&P 500 funds is all funneled into those few giants that already dominate the market!
And the biggest winners always absorb the largest share of new liquidity!
Meanwhile:
Credit card debt just hit a record $1.18 trillion!
The 90-day serious delinquency rate soared to 10.9%!
A 13-year high!
Subprime auto loan default rate broke 7.8%, higher than the peak during the 2008 financial crisis!
Personal savings rate collapsed to 3.4%!
US banks are sitting on over $510 billion in unrealized losses!
The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits keeps rising, and full-time jobs are being gradually replaced by part-time gig work!
Yet the stock market keeps breaking records every day!
Now this math is truly crazy:
The top 10 companies alone have a market cap close to $30 trillion!
If these 10 stocks drop 10%, it would wipe out about $3 trillion!
That's roughly 9% of the US annual GDP!If the rumor of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire is confirmed, risk appetite warming would first benefit mainstream coins. As an ecosystem token, KAITO would mostly rise along but with limited elasticity. I lean short-term bullish but won’t chase highs. The current quote is 0.3201, up slightly 1.1% in 24 hours, trading within a narrow range of 0.3159 to 0.3245. A turnover of 6.91 million indicates incremental funds have not yet entered heavily. The four-hour chart remains in a downtrend channel, down nearly 13% from the high, but the one-hour chart is rising, showing a clear short-term long and long-term short divergence; the funding rate is only 0.005%, with 10.2 million coin-based positions, leverage sentiment is neutral, and the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.19, slightly favoring buyers. Strategically, lightly add long positions on a pullback to 0.3173, with a stop loss at 0.3107 and a target of 0.3296; if volume breaks above 0.3281, add more long positions, moving the stop loss up to 0.3213. Keep position size within 10% of total funds, and exit if the rumor is disproved.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$KAITO#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $KAITO If the rumored Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire materializes, the risk appetite recovery would drive a rebound in mainstream coins like SOL, but I tend to be cautiously bullish before the agreement is confirmed. The cost-effectiveness of chasing highs at 111.74 is average; waiting for a pullback confirmation is safer. The 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages are still downward, with a 9.95% drop from the 4-hour high, so mid-term resistance remains, but it is only 3.04% above the low point, and support below is decent. The 24h increase is 2.3%, with buy orders at 16,000 versus sell orders at 11,000, a ratio of 1.47, indicating short-term buying advantage. The funding rate of 0.0088% is neutral, with 3.043 million positions and no obvious leverage increase, so sentiment is not extreme. A light long position can be tried on a pullback to 110.35, with a stop loss at 108.65 and a target of 113.85; if volume breaks through 112.95, chase again with a stop loss at 111.20. Keep single position size within 5%, and do not hold positions if broken below.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$SOL#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 $SOL 100x leverage contracts are still too intense; I had to urgently close my position last night.
In the early hours today, BTC and ETH started to rise, and my short ETH position couldn't hold anymore, so I finally accepted the loss and exited.
I made a mistake with this short position; I have to admit it. I'm bullish in the long term, and I was trying to catch a short-term pullback. I held the short for two days but missed the pullback, and the rebound caught me first.
If it rises after closing, I feel somewhat relieved. If it falls after closing, I definitely feel bad. No one can predict the future trend, but at least this trade is over, so I don't have to keep staring at the floating loss and fighting with myself.
Fortunately, I was using a small position, so the loss is just like missing a pork knuckle meal. What bothers me is that I keep choosing the wrong direction every time! I'm really bad at this!
Here's how I see the three coins going forward:
BTC: First, watch 84,000. If it can hold steady and there's support on the pullback, I'll continue to lean bullish for recovery. Then watch 85,000. If it falls back below 83,000, I'll calm down and avoid adding positions hastily.
ETH: I'm focusing on whether it can hold around 2,500. If it holds, then watch if it can reclaim 2,600. Since I just closed the short, I won't rush to go long immediately; I'll wait for a pullback. It's more comfortable to open a new position without the stress of a losing trade.
ZEC: First, see if it can hold the previous low on the pullback, then watch if the rebound can break the previous high. If BTC is consolidating and ZEC can strengthen, I'll pay more attention. Jumping in on a single surge is risky and can lead to losses.
My long-term bullish view hasn't changed, but I need to be more careful with future trades. I can skip a pork knuckle meal, but I can't keep paying tuition fees every day.This XRP vulnerability has disenchanted me with the entire altcoin sector.
A top coin with a market cap close to 100 billion and over ten years of operation, whose core narrative is "a fixed total supply of 100 billion," was found to have a bug hidden for nearly 11 years—one transaction could create about 18 trillion XRP out of thin air, which is 184 times the total supply.
Fortunately, a security company used AI to discover it, reported it early through a bug bounty, and the official team quietly fixed it urgently more than half a month ago. The officials say there is no evidence it was exploited, but reading about it still sends chills down my spine.
Keep in mind this is one of the most audited codebases in the entire industry. If a well-known leader like XRP has such an issue, what about those smaller caps with cruder code and less transparent teams?
From now on, when looking at altcoins, first ask: Is the token supply cap really locked down? $XRP$CFX 【ConfluxNews】2026.10.12 Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Developing New Quality Productive Forces
1. 【POW Parameters】Current version V3.1.0, total computing power ≈0.424T, total accounts 25M, transactions yesterday 13+26K, gas fee <$0.00001, CMC global ranking #106;
2. 【POS Parameters】Total locked 921M, total nodes 69, annual interest rate 8.19% (theoretical calculation), total rewards 257M;
3. 【Last Week's Dynamics】CRC-721 growth slowed, PoS decreased by 3.77M, XUnion's TVL is 343K, Nucleon's xCFX minting increased, Swappi liquidity increased, Unitus's total deposits and loans amount to 7.18M USD;
4. 【Block Dynamics】USDT0 issuance 20.15M, AxCNH issuance 38.12M, FC/CFX: 1.25;
5. 【Industry Dynamics】Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Developing New Quality Productive Forces: promoting deep integration of the real economy and digital economy.
6. 【Block Science Popularization】Shunwei Capital, led by Lei Jun who invested in ByteDance and Yushu Technology, once participated in Conflux's angel round financing;#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
The real big test is coming this week.
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 14, the US September CPI will be released, and at 20:30 on October 15, the PPI will be announced. The earlier weak non-farm payrolls have clearly lowered market expectations for further rate hikes in October, but the problem is that crude oil remains high and the 10-year US Treasury yield has not truly cooled down.
If CPI and PPI come in below expectations, core inflation continues to cool, and the 10-year yield falls below 5.2%, the market may further trade on a pause in rate hikes. BTC holding above 84500, ETH breaking through 2600, and Risk-on will truly open up, with gold also having a chance to continue challenging 4250.
If the data meets expectations, the market will most likely continue to fluctuate, with BTC repeatedly trading between 83000 and 84500. This kind of market is easiest to sweep both ways, so try to avoid excessive trading in the middle of the range.
The biggest risk is CPI or PPI exceeding expectations, especially with energy and service inflation rebounding. At that time, rate hike expectations may quickly rise again, US Treasury yields may surge back above 5.3%, BTC needs to guard against 82000 or even 80000, and ETH should focus on support around 2450–2500.
My habit is still to prepare the script in advance, not to bet on the data, nor to chase the first candlestick after the release. The data itself is just a trigger; US Treasuries, the dollar, and price feedback are the real answers.
Less guessing, more waiting. Holding steady is more important than touching the bottom. Opportunities are infinite, capital is limited. #Ledger investigation update: thefts currently concentrated in a single channel, trust cracks in hardware wallets unlikely to disrupt Ethereum's own rhythm in the short term. I judge that noise in the news will not change the dominance of the technical side. The price is stuck at a critical point, with direction likely to be confirmed by volume and price. The four-hour chart remains in a downtrend channel, down 7.27% from the high, but the one-hour chart has turned up, 5.39% above the low, showing a clear divergence between short-term bulls and long-term bears. Up 1.9% in 24h to 2545.5, with a volatility of less than 70 points, and volume only 13.34 million, indicating weak momentum. The top ten order book shows 2717 buy orders against 2236 sell orders, with buyers slightly dominant; the funding rate is negative 0.0003%, indicating shorts are paying a small premium, with open interest at 584,000 coin-margined contracts, and short pressure not yet relieved. If support at 2528.7 holds, light long positions can be taken, entry at 2533.5, stop loss at 2517.3, target at 2571.8. If the breakout at 2566.4 fails, reverse to short, entry at 2562.1, stop loss at 2578.6, target at 2519.4. Single position size controlled within 5%, exit immediately on breakout without holding the position.
— Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wishing you successful trading. —
$ETH #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress to be confirmed
#Ledger investigation update: thefts currently concentrated in a single channel $ETH ASML's Q3 earnings report highlights EUV orders as the focus, with the semiconductor equipment market sentiment directly influencing tokens like SLX in the industry chain. I judge the short-term bias to be bullish, but there is significant overhead resistance. The four-hour chart remains in a downtrend channel, having retraced 17.11% from the high, but the one-hour chart has already reversed upward and is 4.53% above the low, indicating a short-term long and long-term short pattern. Current price is 0.05935, up 1.5% in 24h, with a trading volume of 1.603 million, showing moderate momentum. The top ten order book buy/sell ratio is 0.90, with slightly heavier selling pressure; the funding rate at 0.0050% is relatively neutral, and open interest at 28 million shows no signs of panic liquidation. Resistance is seen at 0.06012, support at 0.05748. Strategy one: lightly buy on a pullback to 0.05865, stop loss at 0.05735, target 0.06045. Strategy two: if volume breaks above 0.06012, chase long, stop loss at 0.05905, target 0.06160. Position size should not exceed 20%, and decisively exit if support breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SLX #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report?
#ASML Q3 earnings report announced on October 14, EUV orders are the focus $SLX ASML's earnings report highlights EUV orders, reflecting semiconductor capital expenditure expectations and indirectly influencing Bitcoin risk appetite. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but avoid chasing too high. The one-hour uptrend is suppressed by the four-hour downtrend, with a clear tug-of-war around 83,600; the top ten sell orders stand at 1,227 versus 549 buy orders, a strength ratio of 0.45. The funding rate is negative at -0.0007%, indicating shorts are paying, and open interest of 29,000 coins reflects cautious sentiment. Strategy one: lightly buy on a pullback to 82,780, stop loss at 81,930, target 84,120; strategy two: add longs if volume breaks above 84,230, stop loss at 83,410, target 85,360. Keep position size under 20%, and guard against spikes under negative funding.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BTC #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report?
#阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点 $BTC #Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel This reminds us that fund security remains the bottom line for holding positions, and the short-term trend of WLD is currently at a turning point. My judgment is a bullish consolidation awaiting a breakout. Current price is 0.5548, up 2.4% in 24 hours, with 1-hour and 4-hour trends both moving upward, but still 8.01% below the 4-hour high, indicating resistance on the upside. Trading volume is 217 million, order book top 10 buy-sell ratio is 1.11, buyers slightly dominant; funding rate at 0.01% shows mild bullish sentiment, open interest at 73.689 million is not overheated, key support is at 0.5402, and breakout confirmation level is at 0.5859. If it pulls back to 0.5495 and stabilizes, a light long position can be taken with stop loss at 0.5387 and target at 0.5831; if volume breaks above 0.5863, add more with stop loss at 0.5678 and target at 0.6124. Position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wishing you successful trading. —
$WLD #Russia-Ukraine may reach an "energy ceasefire" agreement, progress pending confirmation
#Ledger investigation update: theft temporarily concentrated in a single channel $WLD Three days, I shouted for three whole days.
How many brothers treated me like a joke, and now?
What’s the result?
Did it rise or not?
With this breath, I finally came out.
Look, $ZEC just surged straight up with a big bullish candle, reaching a high of 1298.65, now steadily standing at 1288.
Looking back a few days ago, when the price dropped to 1195, the whole network was shouting waterfall, retail investors were frantically shorting.
But I gritted my teeth and told you all the timing, location, and people were all in place, and the probability of breaking below 1100 was extremely low.
Why am I so confident?
Because the moving averages are converged and it can’t fall, because the extremely crowded retail short positions are the best fuel for the whale!
Today’s rally is the whale’s ruthless harvest of the bears!
My current long position has an average entry price of 1137.64, and the floating profit has exploded, reaching +131.63%!
For these three days, under the pressure of the whole network’s bearish sentiment, relying on extreme position control and firm belief, I finally caught the fattest meat of this wave.
Now that the market has come this far, my next strategy is very simple: move the stop loss up! Set the floor at 1195, or directly push it to 1240 to lock in profits.
Take profit first looks at 1300, if it breaks strongly then look at 1350. Never get carried away just because of doubling profits, still no heavy positions, no all-in, only disciplined trades.
$BTC
$MAGIC
#Institutions continue to build positions, why is BTC still under pressure?
#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test Starting with a single $EIGEN observation order, no preset direction in the middle of the range
$EIGEN has gained a net 15.15% in the past 24 hours, but I recorded the observation order at 0.2782 USDT. The 5-minute candle just closed at 0.2777 USDT, basically right at the starting point. With a reference high of 0.2846 USDT and a low of 0.2631 USDT, the current position is exactly in the middle of the range, with room both up and down. In this kind of position, I usually don’t rush to judge the breakout direction.
The recent 15-minute trading volume is 1.11 times the average of the previous 3 hours, so the activity is only slightly higher, not a significant volume anomaly. Considering the price is still in the middle of the range, I tend to treat this as a consolidation phase that needs further observation rather than immediately betting on either side. $HYPE 30-minute level analysis
This ID's viewpoint
After HYPE dropped sharply from the high of 95.267 down to 82.613, the downtrend has paused. Currently, it is in a recovery rebound following a major decline, with the market grinding back and forth around the bottom consolidation zone. The short-term bias is slightly bullish, but the rebound strength is not very strong, so avoid blindly chasing highs. Enter positions after waiting for a pullback to the 85.4‑85.8 support range to stabilize before setting up long positions; if the price reaches the resistance zone at 88.6‑89.2 and fails to rise further, gradually take profits and exit. If it effectively breaks below the 84.2 stop-loss level, abandon the long strategy immediately.
Chan Theory Structure
On the 30-minute timeframe, the downtrend segment starting at 95.267 ended at the low of 82.613, with bearish momentum fully released. After the price turned upward to rebound, it formed a secondary purple consolidation zone at the low level on the chart. The current price is running near the upper edge of this consolidation zone, indicating a consolidation and recovery after the decline. If the price can break above and hold above the consolidation box with volume, the rebound has room to expand further; otherwise, if it falls back into the consolidation zone or even breaks below the lower edge, this recovery phase will face renewed pressure and weaken again.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
The bottoming rebound saw capital entering to support, with volume rising; after entering the consolidation zone, overall volume quieted down. When testing resistance upward, there is no sign of large capital aggressively accumulating; on the downside pullback, selling pressure does not increase, indicating bears no longer have the strength to push sharply lower, and bulls and bears are locked in a stalemate here.
Core Observation
Focus closely on the lower edge of the secondary consolidation zone as a key defense line; there must be no volume-driven breakdown below this level.Ethereum spot ETF saw a weekly outflow of $542 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone accounting for $477 million; are institutions withdrawing ETH?
Many people only focus on the candlestick charts to guess price movements, but the institutional funds that truly determine the mid-term direction have quietly voted with their feet. The latest SoSoValue weekly data shows that from October 5 to October 9 Eastern Time, the total net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs across the U.S. was $542 million. The most noteworthy point: the vast majority of selling pressure came entirely from BlackRock's ETHA, which alone had a net outflow of $477 million in one week, with a single fund bearing most of the redemptions in the entire sector.
📊 Key data overview
1. Entire market Ethereum spot ETFs: weekly net outflow of $542 million
2. BlackRock ETHA: weekly net outflow of $477 million, accounting for nearly 88% of total outflows; ETHA's historical cumulative net inflow still reaches a high of $12.79 billion, making it the absolute leading product in the entire ETH spot ETF sector
3. Grayscale ETHE: weekly net outflow of $31.8918 million; since its launch, ETHE has had a historical cumulative net outflow of $5.47 billion, and Grayscale's long-term continuous redemptions trend has not changed
✅ In-depth analysis: why this outflow's core focus is not on the "outflow amount," but on ETHA When buying a cold wallet, the biggest fear is that you think you've bought security, but actually haven't.
#Ledger事件损失近9000万 Currently exposed victims involve users who purchased devices from the Southeast Asian dealer CryptoBilis. Early on-chain estimates put losses close to $90 million, with Bitquery's subsequent investigation estimating about $92.9 million, involving 311 wallet addresses. This figure is still from third-party statistics and not an official final confirmation.
Ledger has requested the dealer to suspend sales and shipments, and reminded users who purchased devices within the past 90 days: do not initialize unused devices yet, and those who have already used them should consider transferring assets to wallets with new devices and new mnemonic phrases. The exact leak method is still under investigation; supply chain tampering is suspected, but it cannot be directly concluded that the chip was hacked.
Tether has frozen some involved USDT, but freezing does not mean the money has been returned to the victims.
The most heartbreaking part of this incident is that users were already seriously protecting against theft. My view is that the security of hardware wallets must cover the entire process from factory, distribution, to initialization. The words "authorized dealer" also need to withstand continuous scrutiny. #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 @OKX星球 The 5-day net inflow of US spot ETFs has just turned from positive to negative — a net outflow of about $214.7 million over the last 5 trading days, with the latest single-day (October 8) net outflow of $82.3 million. This is the first time in the past month. BTC dropped to $82,715.4 during the same period, down 2.53% over the week. Has the bottom-supporting money really left? Let's look at three numbers first. First, the capital shift: US spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $214.7 million over the last 5 trading days, sharply contrasting with the $2.6 billion net inflow two weeks ago, marking the most obvious directional reversal in this round; second, price pressure: BTC is currently at $82,715.4 (24h -0.19%, nearly one week -2.53%), with the lower bound of the 20-day range raised to 80,400 and the upper bound still at 87,399, the price is moving closer to the lower bound of the range; third, macro tightening: the US dollar index rose to 102.23 (+0.09%), US Treasury yields climbed (the market summary this week repeatedly mentioned "rising yields suppressing Bitcoin"), while spot gold actually rose 1.52% to $4,195.6, and the fear and greed index rebounded from 59 to 64. Why is the ETF shift worth noting? Because it is usually the most "honest" capital channel: ETF subscriptions correspond to real spot purchases, redemptions correspond to real selling pressure, unlike derivatives which can be leveraged or hedged. BTC's ability to repeatedly consolidate around 84,000 in the past month largely relied on ETFs dailyW is really fierce. After checking the news, HYPE is deploying multi-chain through W, and HYPE is expanding transfers through W to Solana, Base, and Unichain.
Additionally, the W 2.0 tokenomics revision canceled the original large one-time unlock every year, changing it to small, continuous token releases every two weeks to reduce market selling pressure, with the lock-up period extended overall to October 2028.
Today it directly surged to double. During the market sideways period, any increase in trading volume and positive news starts to show performance.【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜ETH October 12】
Conclusion: ETH is not confirming a reversal but is testing recovery after a sharp drop. Only 4 reliable viewpoints were obtained in the past 24 hours; no forced attempt to make it ten.
Cheds/@BigCheds: Original view stated ETHUSD 4H showed a lower high break, accompanied by a candlestick chart. Editorial inference: Binance spot around 2546, 24h high 2564, low 2497; only if it holds above 2565, then look towards 2600.
Daan/@DaanCrypto: Original view was BTC stopped out below 83000 and then retested. Editorial inference: This is an ETH cross-market signal; if BTC loses 83000, ETH's recovery is likely to fail.
Altcoin Sherpa/@AltcoinSherpa: Original view said some coins remain strong after pullback. Editorial inference: Recovery window is still open, but that doesn't mean chasing longs.
Peter Brandt/@PeterLBrandt: Original view warned against dogmatic use of position indicators. Editorial inference: ETH funding rate at -0.003713%, short covering may amplify volatility.
Single route: defend 2535 and hold above 2565, target 2600; break below 2498 invalidates, then look back to 2460–2400. Leverage carries risks of spikes and false breakouts. #BTC #ETH #OKB W-USDT's 15-minute closing price over the past full 24 hours (as of 03:30 UTC) rose from 0.017211 to 0.029221 (+69.78%). Among them, the single 15-minute candle from 02:30 to 02:45 UTC increased 15.14% from open to close, with a trading volume of approximately 2,131,900 USDT; the interval high was 0.030202, and the latest full close remains below it. After the sharp rally, will you wait for consolidation confirmation or wait for a pullback? #W #AltcoinTrading
The chart is based on 97 confirmed 15-minute candles of OKX spot W-USDT, ending at 03:30 UTC on 2026-10-12.Dogecoin is approaching a critical point. Market reports show that DOGE is about to experience its first daily golden cross in 14 months, with many holders turning their attention back to the $0.10 mark.
The meaning of a golden cross is not complicated: when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, it indicates that short-term buying pressure has overtaken the long-term average. Traders see this as an early sign that buyers are regaining control. For Dogecoin, this is the first trend-level shift in over a year.
The market is also responding accordingly. $DOGE closed up 1.2% on Tuesday at $0.094, just a step away from the $0.10 resistance level. This threshold has blocked rebounds multiple times before; once buyers push the price past this line, the upside space will reopen, and market sentiment will turn optimistic.
Of course, the signal only indicates a trend change, not a guaranteed outcome. The last golden cross for Dogecoin led to a rally followed by a pullback. Whether history will repeat depends on whether buyers can hold the $0.10 level. At least for now, the scales are tipping in favor of the bulls. I recorded my successes, so naturally I must also record my failures.
Actually, since I’m willing to share this, I’m not afraid of being laughed at. Just a few days after making 100,000 in one night, I was almost on the verge of liquidation.
The pride from a month of consecutive wins made me overconfident, taking heavy positions with high leverage. You could say I made almost every possible mistake.
People always have to pay the price for their recklessness; we must respect the market. No one can win forever.
But the best outcome was that I finally cut my losses instead of stubbornly holding on until liquidation. I still have a chance to make a comeback.
For me, losing 200,000 in profit is not the end; since I earned it once, I can earn it again.
I also ask everyone to remember: in trading, staying alive is the only priority. Slow is fast. I hope to meet you all at the peak.$MET Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.
Before going to bed last night, I took another look at MET. MET was moving sideways at the bottom, with buyers stepping in below, the buying pressure gradually strengthening, and the support never broken once. I casually suggested going long, entering in batches around 0.4148, though I wasn’t really confident, it just felt like a comfortable position.
This morning when I opened the market, the price had already reached 0.4340, with an unrealized profit of +93.53%. The wait was worth it, the timing was right ✅
Risk control is done upfront, called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
Take profits on 70% first, move the stop loss of the remaining 30% to the cost price, hold if it rallies, don’t let the floating profit you have turn into discomfort.
Don’t get greedy with profits, don’t despair over pullbacks.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for a new structure to emerge before deciding.
$SOL $BTC $BTC is making small steps to rebound over the weekend, don't rush to short. The first wave of rebound is not over yet and still has momentum.
Reduce/close short positions between 83500–84000 first, then consider shorting again near 85000. The 80,000 level below is the long position defense line; if it turns into a downward continuation, 75000–76000 will be the most important secondary low point to watch in this round.
If $ETH BTC reaches 85000, ETH will also offer a shorting opportunity.
Altcoins, don't rush to add positions; there is no fear of missing out at this stage, be patient and select quality targets.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 In traditional understanding, geopolitical conflicts often drive gold and crude oil prices to rise simultaneously. However, the market in 2026 gave a completely different answer: after the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, oil prices once surged by more than 40%, while gold did not rise but fell, with the gold-oil ratio plummeting from 70.6 to 39.2. This rare "seesaw" phenomenon reflects a fundamental differentiation in the transmission mechanisms of macro changes to these two asset classes. The difference in transmission paths is key to understanding this divergence. Crude oil has strong commodity attributes, trading energy supply. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens about 20% of global oil transportation routes, and supply contraction expectations push oil prices to gain a "conflict premium." Gold, on the other hand, has strong financial attributes, trading monetary credit. The surge in oil prices raises inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even release hawkish signals. The rise in real interest rates significantly increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, and the safe-haven premium is quickly suppressed by interest rate logic. In short, when geopolitical risk transmits to gold through the "oil price → inflation → interest rate" chain, the direction reverses. Changes in the gold-oil ratio further reveal a switch in market trading logic. At the early stage of the conflict, the market was dominated by "panic-driven risk aversion," with funds flowing into crude oil; as the conflict turned into a stalemate, the trading logic shifted to a "stagflation game." Within this framework, the suppressive effect of high oil prices on the economy began to appear, while gold, as a core asset to hedge stagflation risk, saw its strategic allocation value strengthened in the medium term. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates within the year, and just one rate cut could push gold prices up by about 1 per ounce