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ETH is now at 2,693, down about 1% for the day, showing more stability than Bitcoin. The spot ETF's 7-day buying streak broke on Tuesday with a net outflow of 3 million USD; the amount isn't large but the signal is worth noting, indicating a short-term pause in spot buying. Technically, the RSI has hit 75, entering the overbought zone, while the moving averages remain above the 20-day line; the structure is intact but the price has risen enough to need a breather. SharpLink added another 42,000 ETH to staking, with institutions locking chips into yield layers, tightening the circulating supply. Mid-term, holding above 2,700 is needed to open up upside space, with 2,600 as strong support below. The spot ETF has still net bought 160 million this month, so the base capital hasn't fled. $ETH #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Short near $BTC 83900, short near $ETH 2700.
Tonight's market still shows a volatile rhythm. Both BTC and ETH just formed a slight golden cross on the 1-hour chart, and prices have rebounded accordingly, currently approaching key levels.
For this rebound, do not chase longs for now; focus on observing resistance above. If prices continue to surge, I will pay more attention to shorting opportunities at high levels.
Current plan:
• BTC: attempt short near 83900, target first at 83000
• ETH: attempt short near 2700, target first at 2675
• Use small stop-loss and strictly control position size
PCE data will be released tonight, which may further increase volatility after the announcement. Let's first see how the market moves and then validate this trading idea.
#BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #TradeReviewXRP dropped nearly 3 points again today at 1.51, but don't just look at the price. XRP Ledger just onboarded a Brazilian institutional fund managing 4 trillion USD, shifting the on-chain narrative from a payment coin to an institutional settlement layer. On one hand, the price is dragged down by the broader market; on the other, real adoption is taking place. This contradiction is the real opportunity. Ripple's previous hacker incident dampened sentiment, but the protocol's foundation remains solid. The short-term psychological support is at 1.50; if it holds, a rebound is possible, if not, watch 1.45. In the long run, as long as institutional adoption continues, the valuation logic will be different from now. Don't get swayed by daily price fluctuations; when narrative and price clash, it's often smart money accumulating. $XRP #美元稳定币或加速出海 #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The choppy market is really disgusting 🤮, fees eat up a lot, and I’m reluctant to hold short-term longs at the bottom.
Open isolated margin to ride the choppiness, or try splitting positions (haven't gone fully empty yet, will try after taking profit on a single position wave.)
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
Strategy bought 1,665 BTC last week at an average price of 85,681 USD. Strive bought 1,107 BTC. BitMine bought another 17,362 ETH, with holdings surpassing 6 million. Treasury funds continue to accumulate at high levels, mainly financing through issuing common and preferred shares.
But another signal is even more worth watching. In the past 7 days, 49,000 BTC worth of leveraged chips disappeared, with open interest contracts experiencing the largest single-week decline since October 2025. CME Bitcoin open interest dropped 14.78% in one day, falling from 10.07 billion to 8.41 billion. No liquidations occurred; this was an active deleveraging.
On one side, treasury funds are financing to buy spot; on the other, leveraged funds are retreating. Spot buying is supporting the bottom, but the retreat of leverage indicates short-term speculative funds are withdrawing. With long-term US Treasury yields at 5.6% and financing costs so high, how long the treasury model can hold is questionable. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I have already entered a long position on BTC at 83,000. Stop loss is set at 81,500, with targets between 86,000 and 87,000. Tonight is the PCE report, tomorrow night Micron's earnings, and Friday the non-farm payrolls—all three events clustered together. Position size is light; no one-sided bets.
No chasing highs or panic selling; waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.The first truth: As the US and Iran move towards talks, Bitcoin actually crashed
On September 30, the US and Iran, through Qatar's mediation, advanced a seven-day trust-building plan. The market's expectation for a diplomatic resolution to the war increased, and the geopolitical risk premium marginally declined.
You might think: Isn't this a good thing? Peace means risk assets should rise, right?
Quite the opposite.
A large part of Bitcoin's surge from 70,000 to 87,000 was driven by the narrative of "geopolitical hedging" and "war premium." When the US and Iran actually sat down to talk, this premium instantly evaporated. Gold fell from 4260 to 4147, oil retreated, and Bitcoin followed with a plunge.
QCP's analysis was extremely precise: this is not a "hedging reallocation," it's a "broad deleveraging." Nasdaq, gold, Bitcoin, and the dollar index all fell.
You might think it's a "peace benefit," but the market tells you: I was rising because of "panic," now that panic is gone, what will hold 87,000? $BTC $ETH $SOL #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Fed rate hike odds for the October 28 meeting have dropped from roughly 70% to 34.9%, while odds of no change now sit at 65.1%.
Fewer hike bets usually ease pressure on risk assets like $BTC and crypto.
But one shift in odds is not a trend, so watch the incoming inflation data.
How are you positioning into November?$GRASS Technical Analysis of the Market
1. Candlesticks and Range: Current price around 0.747, 24H fluctuation between 0.656 and 0.809. After intraday surge, a slight pullback occurred; the 4-hour candle closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle. The short-term trend remains upward, with the 7-day moving average continuously supporting the price. This is a high-level consolidation and shakeout structure following a strong rally, with lows steadily rising and the trend structure intact.
2. Volume: 24-hour trading volume is approximately 99.9 million USD. Volume increased during the rally phase and decreased during the pullback, indicating active probing by major funds. The capital absorption is strong, profit-taking occurred but without large-scale sell-off.
3. Indicator Readings: RSI(14) at 76, entering overbought territory; MACD red bars above zero line persist, showing strong bullish momentum, but indicators show signs of fatigue, accumulating short-term correction risk; KDJ is high, indicating a need for a pullback and correction.
4. Key Price Levels: Short-term support at 0.68, strong support at 0.65; first resistance at 0.809, strong resistance at 0.84. A volume breakout above 0.809 could open up further upside space; a break below 0.65 would damage the current upward structure and lead to a deep retracement.
5. Futures Market: Open interest continues to rise, with a high proportion of long positions. The long-to-short ratio is skewed towards longs, with short-term bullish leverage accumulating. Any pullback could trigger long liquidations, amplifying volatility.
Market Summary: Overall trend is bullish, supported by AI narratives attracting continuous capital inflow, but short-term indicators are overbought and profit-taking at high levels is heavy. To continue the bull run, volume must increase and hold above 0.809; if the rally fails, a likely retracement to around 0.68 for technical correction will occur. $GRT is one of those projects where adoption matters more than noise.
The real signal I’m watching is whether demand for blockchain data keeps expanding as more apps move on-chain.
If usage grows with the ecosystem, $GRT gets an interesting fundamental narrative.
#GRT #DailyOrbit$MU AI storage demand has been repeatedly priced in, what evidence will Micron present next?
This afternoon, OKX's MUUSDT pre-market perpetual contract was around 1,073, with the page showing a 24-hour low of about 1,059; this reflects contract trading expectations and does not equal the US stock spot price. HBM supply, price, and yield determine whether revenue can convert into profit, while customer procurement expansion decides how long the boom can last.
If the spot price confirms strength after the official open, and subsequent earnings reports show simultaneous improvement in high-bandwidth storage revenue and gross margin, I will raise my assessment; if capacity expansion outpaces order fulfillment, or regular storage prices fall back, the expected premium may contract. Bitcoin climbed back above $85,000 after the PCE price index was released.
The actual PCE price index was 3.4%, while the market expected 3.7%.
Lower than expected, indicating inflation is not as severe, meaning the pressure of rising prices is not that high, which is "better than expected."
The actual Q2 GDP data was 2.2%, with an expectation of 1.5%.
GDP data is stronger than previously estimated, indicating the economy is quite robust.
Together, these two data points make the market think "the Fed might not need to hike rates aggressively anymore, and money might not be that tight."
Risk assets (stocks, Bitcoin, etc.) usually respond positively.
The economic data is quite "goldilocks" (cooling inflation + decent growth), which is a short-term positive for Bitcoin, bringing back some bullish sentiment.
But please note: this is just a short-term market reaction and does not guarantee a long-term rise.
Economic data will keep updating, and Bitcoin remains highly volatile.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Major data released tonight: September ADP private payrolls increased by 90,000, exceeding the expected 70,000; employment stopped declining after three consecutive months, and hiring accelerated for the first time since May; August core PCE monthly rate was 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and core PCE year-on-year was 3%, the lowest since February this year. Once the data came out, the market collectively turned optimistic. CME interest rate futures show the probability of a 25bp rate hike in October quickly fell to 43%. The mainstream judgment on Wall Street is: inflation is cooling, employment remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve will most likely pause rate hikes in October. However, my view is exactly the opposite: even if this set of data is all positive, the option of a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out. Many people only focus on single-month inflation and employment data, but ignore the key signals already delivered at the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting. At the September meeting, the Fed unanimously approved a 25bp rate hike, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. The updated dot plot median clearly indicates that another 25bp hike is needed within 2026; among the 18 members, 16 believe there will be at least one more rate hike this year. 1. The September hike has been implemented, and the dot plot has embedded the expectation of another hike this year. The September decision was unanimously hawkish, and Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized at the press conference that inflation remains high and must be promptly brought back to the 2% target. The dot plot has already given the market a clear guide, with the year-end median rate pointing to 4.125%, meaning there will be at least one more hike this year. If the strong hike was just implemented in September, and October directly announces the end of this rate hike cycle,XAUT at $4,169 — and I'm watching this very closely.
Gold is at all-time highs. That's not noise, that's a signal.
Resistance I need to see broken: $4,258 — $4,283
Once $4,283 flips, I'm targeting $4,398 with conviction.
Support I'm defending: $4,085 — $4,110
As long as this holds, I'm not changing my bias.
My position is clear:
Above $4,283 — I'm in. Target $4,398, stop at $4,060.
Below $4,085 — I step back and reload at $4,036.
$XAUT $XAU $PAXG
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead Am I possibly the first blogger to say the BTC bear market is over?
In posts and videos from June, I mentioned that BTC's phase low would appear around the Gann time at the end of June to early July, with the endpoint at 58000. Subsequently, BTC dropped to 57800 on July 1st ✅
Also possibly the first blogger on the entire web to say BTC would start a correction after 87395?
After mid-September, I repeatedly emphasized that a correction was about to start, at least a daily-level correction targeting the 74967-87395 rise. Then we saw the correction starting from 87395 has lasted for a week ✅
Possibly still the first blogger on the entire web to capture the end of the adjustment:
In yesterday's post, we said BTC must break through 86380 to assume the correction against the red segment shown in the chart has ended. Today, after reaching a high of 85650, it fell back, so we do not assume the adjustment is over yet.
If no higher high than 85650 appears later, then 82593-85650 is a rebound against the 87395-82593 decline and has ended. The support role of the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (79800-80100) below needs to be closely watched, as it is the dividing line between market strength and weakness.
Time-wise, attention should be paid to early October and early November. After ending the correction starting from 87395, BTC will continue to rise. The specific time when the adjustment ends will be followed up later in combination with BTC's large and small level structures. Everyone, please stay tuned.#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
Regarding the storage chip big three, I have some thoughts to share.
Today, the storage chip sector looks quite fragmented—yesterday it just saw a net inflow of 1.93 billion and stabilized, but today the main forces reversed and dumped 8.566 billion. Stocks like Gigadevice and Changxin Technology were heavily pressured; this is not due to fundamental issues but a typical capital risk-avoidance move before earnings.
Micron is releasing its earnings tonight, with market expectations for revenue between $50.8 billion and $51.2 billion, and EPS of $31.5. The focus is actually not on this quarter's numbers but on management's guidance for fiscal year 2027—since the stock price has already risen significantly, the options market expects post-earnings volatility of 8% to 10%. At this level, short-term funds choosing to exit first is understandable.
But the industry story remains unchanged. Bernstein expects DRAM and NAND average prices to rise nearly 20% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, continuing to rise in Q4 but at a slower pace. DDR4 contract prices hit new highs again in September, and Q4 PC DRAM price guidance was sharply revised up from 3%-8% to 13%-18%. TrendForce also said that server DRAM supply and demand will remain tight in Q4.
So my judgment is: don’t rush to bottom-fish before the earnings, let the dust settle a bit. If Micron’s guidance is strong enough, the storage chain will likely dip first then recover; if the guidance is conservative, a short-term pullback is a mid-term buying opportunity. $MU $SNDK $SKHYNIX 存储芯片巨头 **Micron（美光）** 即将公布财报，市场关注的核心依然是 **AI 存储业务**，尤其是 HBM 高带宽内存。 随着 AI 大模型和 AI Agent 持续发展，HBM、高容量 DRAM 以及企业级 SSD 的需求不断受到关注，而存储行业扩产周期较长，供需格局短期内仍是市场的重要观察点。 🔎 **财报重点看 3 个方向：** 1️⃣ **HBM 业务** 关注 HBM 出货量、收入增速以及长期供应协议的进展，观察 AI 存储需求的真实强度。 2️⃣ **下一季度指引** 管理层对存储价格、订单以及供需关系的判断，可能成为财报后的重要催化剂。 3️⃣ **资本支出与产能扩张** 重点观察先进存储产能扩张速度，这将影响市场对整个 AI 算力产业链的预期。 ⚠️ **风险同样存在：** 如果当前股价已经提前反映大量乐观预期，那么即使财报表现不错，也可能出现“利好兑现”。如果业绩或指引低于市场预期，科技股风险偏好可能受到压制。 🌐 **对加密市场的潜在影响：** 财报及指引超预期 → AI/半导体板块情绪改善 → 风险偏好可能得到支撑。 财报或指引低于预期 → 科技股$BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#USIranTalksRestart $ETH is jumping up and down, mainly due to the repeated tug-of-war over Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which is essentially an emotional game.
US Treasury yields and the US dollar index fluctuate back and forth, and ETH, as a high Beta asset, is disturbed. Coupled with institutional portfolio adjustments and turnover of existing funds, there is a lack of sustained one-way capital.
Waiting for interest rate expectations to show a clear direction before the market can break out of the current consolidation pattern.I, Chovy
The market makers are really evil
They deliberately blew up some people's $BTC short positions
And then it started to drop
——————————————————
Just now
My $BTC short position was liquidated
But my $ETH short position was not
Because I used less leverage on $ETH
Now I feel a bit heartbroken
Because after all, I lost money
But
I still feel a little happy inside
Why do I feel happy?
Because the market makers blew up the shorts and then dumped the price
This shows one thing
It shows that the market makers don't want to push the price very high
Therefore
I am more confident in my market outlook
It's like
I used a little money to test the market direction
Now I will observe a bit more
Maybe I'll continue shorting later
I want to keep shorting
Because I believe the market is really going to crash
——————————————————
I might not update so frequently after this
Because I have to go to work
I found a job
The painful life of a wage slave is about to begin Tonight $SPACE did not follow the overall market trend and rose by more than 2% at one point.
To put it simply,
tonight's rise reflects the expectation that "Starship is moving from testing to commercialization."
1) Starship successfully entered orbit for the first time,
although one engine shut down early,
it ultimately succeeded in reaching Earth's orbit.
This alone boosted market confidence in $SPACE.
2) During its time in orbit, Starship deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites,
marking its first complete commercial mission of "orbit insertion + satellite deployment."
Technically, this is truly impressive!
3) SPACEX's commercial value has been re-evaluated,
opening up imagination for AI computing power satellites and space launch services.
4) Institutional target prices remain high. Citi, RBC, TD Cowen, Bank of America, and others have given high target prices,
believing Starship's success is a key step to unlocking long-term valuation.
But a short-term rebound does not prove anything,
and it is not the start of a trend. $ETH Gann Structure Analysis
As shown in the chart, 2716–2756 is the core resistance range for this round, which has been tested multiple times and is a concentrated supply zone.
• If the price cannot break above and hold firmly above 2756 with volume, the correction that started from 2807 will continue;
• Only by effectively holding above the 2716–2756 resistance zone can the correction end and the upward wave restart.
Key dynamic support below: the green Gann 2×1 angle line, corresponding to the price level 2536, which is the dividing line for the correction levels:
1. Holding 2536: The pullback from 2807 is only considered a minor correction within the red wave (2359–2907), the larger bullish structure remains intact, representing a pullback and accumulation within a bull market;
2. Effectively breaking below 2536: The correction level upgrades, no longer just a correction of 2359–2907, but a deep retracement of the larger wave 1505–2807, opening further downside space, shifting the outlook from buying on dips to a more oscillating bearish stance.ZEC has a real ETF channel, a governance upgrade from NU7, and privacy demand at a four-year high. But "having these" and "buying now to profit" are two different things.
This plunge from 1600 to 1395 is essentially a triple squeeze of "profit-taking concentration + leverage withdrawal + macro suppression." Whales are offloading, bulls are retreating, US Treasury yields are at a 17-year high, and the EU ban awaits in 2027.
1360-1380 is the lifeline. Holding it means a possible oversold rebound. Breaking it means 1250 is just ahead.
Don’t talk about bottom-fishing on the night whales are offloading. First, see if 1360 can hold.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks; only those who survive have the right to talk about the future.) $ZEC $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 The money from the DAO incident hasn't been fully refunded; the remaining portion has turned into staking rewards.
These rewards are now being used to fix the Vyper compiler.
Where did this money come from:
In 2016, when the DAO incident happened, some $ETH went unclaimed.
Later, these coins were staked, and the interest accumulated into this fund.
How this amount is calculated:
The $600,000 is not newly minted; it’s the second round allocated from staking interest.
Market makers aren’t focused on this $600,000.
They’re watching that once Vyper is verified, the pricing logic for pools like Curve will have one less variable.
The signal is which chain appears on the third round funding list.
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC $ETH #美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限
The US-Iran negotiations have restarted, but frankly, it's the same old story—much ado about nothing.
Qatar is acting as a mediator, with both sides focusing on a compromise plan involving navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the maritime blockade, and nuclear issues. However, who moves first and who follows remains unresolved. Trump outright denies proposing to lift sanctions and says Iran is "performing very poorly." Neither side intends to truly concede.
Currently, Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered to the high levels seen since the conflict began, but Hormuz transportation remains restricted. Brent crude is still hovering around $100, and it rose another 2.23% today.
So, what impact does this have on the crypto space? I'll break it down in two layers.
First, oil prices remain high, so inflation can't be contained. Brent is fluctuating above $100, combined with the 30-year US Treasury yield breaking 5.6%, these two factors are resonating. Inflation expectations won't come down, so the Fed can only maintain high interest rates, which keeps risk asset valuations suppressed.
Second, the market may have priced in easing too early. Although negotiations have resumed, none of the core disagreements have been resolved. If talks break down again or if there are new disruptions in Hormuz transportation, oil prices could surge at any time.
Here's my take.
Don't assume risks are gone just because negotiations have restarted. The Middle East script is that talks one day and collapse the next; repeated tug-of-war is the norm. The market's expectations for easing are a bit too optimistic; stay cautious. Now it's a matter of who lasts longer, not who guesses right.Uncle's Night Talk｜9.30 One-sentence summary:
September closes for A-shares, Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.62% for the month, ChiNext dropped 8.82%; but in the evening, US core PCE was below expectations, cooling down the October rate hike expectations, finally bringing a somewhat positive external factor before the holiday. 🪙 Crypto BTC around 84.4K, ETH around 2.72K, risk assets rebounded somewhat after PCE release.
82K remains an important short-term observation level for BTC. 🇨🇳 A-shares Shanghai Composite +0.31%, Shenzhen Component -0.11%, ChiNext -0.23%, turnover 1.44 trillion.
September: Shanghai Composite -3.62%, Shenzhen Component -8.04%, ChiNext -8.82%. Although Shanghai Composite closed positive, individual stock gains and losses were not strong; 3,800 points remains an important observation level after the holiday. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong stocks Hang Seng Index +0.37%, Hang Seng Tech +0.10%, southbound capital net bought about 6.86 billion HKD.
Tech stocks temporarily stabilized, continue to watch around 4,250. 🌏 Asia-Pacific Nikkei +1.94%, Korea KOSPI -0.48%, market continues to diverge. 🇺🇸 US stocks US August core PCE YoY 3.0%, below expected 3.3%; market expectations for another rate hike in October clearly cooled, US stocks opened higher. Inflation pressure marginally eased, valuation environment for growth stocks slightly positive. 💡 Uncle's view September was tough, but on the eve of National Day, finally some good news arrived. PCE below expectations, meaning#The 30-year US Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002
The US Treasury market has really overwhelmed me these past two days.
The 30-year yield has surged to around 5.62%, the highest since 2002. The 10-year yield even touched 5.29% at one point. A few days ago, I was already saying that the 10-year yield surpassing 5% was scary enough, but now it looks like the long-term bonds have no intention of stopping.
The most absurd thing is, after Williams came out dovish earlier, the October rate hike expectations clearly dropped, yet the long end still kept pushing upward.
This shows that the market is now worried about more than just whether the Fed will hike rates or not. The US fiscal deficit, massive future bond issuance, and persistent inflation—all these factors are reflected in the long-term bonds.
And what does a 5.6% yield on the 30-year US Treasury mean? You don’t have to do anything; just holding US Treasuries yields over 5%. For high-valuation tech stocks like $QQQ and risk assets like $BTC to keep rallying, they need to give capital a bigger reason.
But I don’t want to be outright bearish right now.
Because this level is already very extreme. If 5.6% can’t hold and starts dropping back to 5.5% or 5.4%, I would actually consider buying $XAU and tech stocks again.
But if 5.6% holds firmly or even heads toward 6%, then I will definitely pull back first.
These past few days have been crazy. I used to check $BTC first thing every day, but now the first thing I look at when I open my eyes is the US Treasury market. If this keeps up, US Treasuries might become even more exciting than the crypto market.#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.6%, the highest since 2002. This signal from the U.S. Treasury market is more worth watching than BTC's price fluctuations.
The rise in the 30-year yield indicates growing market concerns about long-term inflation and debt supply. Interestingly, short-term expectations for a rate hike in October have fallen from 70% to 50%, showing the market is less fearful of that upcoming hike.
Although the fear has lessened, there is still concern about long-term rates continuing to rise. U.S. Treasury data shows hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash U.S. Treasuries, a record high. If bond market volatility further expands, it could significantly amplify liquidity shocks across the entire financial market.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $BTC $ETH $ZEC A couple of days ago, I was downstairs picking up a package and ran into my neighbor, Old Zhou.
He was squatting there smoking and told me he recently bought some $BTC again.
I said I didn’t understand this stuff, but inside I was actually itching to try.
When I got home, I couldn’t resist and downloaded an app.
I fiddled with it until midnight, spending a long time just registering.
That night after buying, I woke up three times.
My phone was by my pillow; every time it lit up, I reached for it to check.
If it went up a bit, I felt like I was doing okay.
If it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being careless.
My wife asked if I was feeling unwell.
I said I was fine, just haven’t been sleeping well lately.
Later, when I heard people talking about another coin, I went to try $ETH.
After the fees were deducted, I stared at the screen in a daze for a long time.
I traded back and forth a few times, but the money didn’t increase, and I got exhausted first.
Once when it dropped sharply, I was stubborn and bought a little more.
After topping up, it kept falling; I sat on the balcony and smoked half a pack.
My kid called me to play with building blocks, but I wasn’t in the mood.
During that time, I lost my appetite and got irritable.
Later, I deleted the app.
Deleted it, then reinstalled it, then deleted it again.
I went through this several times before I slowly came to understand.
I was too impatient, always wanting to get rich quick.
Now I only have a little $SOL left.
When it goes up, I don’t shout; when it falls, I don’t sell.
I watch the posts in the group for fun.
When people urge me to rush in, I just say wait a bit longer.
No borrowing money, no all-in bets, no touching what I don’t understand.
Being able to sleep soundly is more important than making quick money.
Profits are luck; losses are tuition.
This business is for entertainment; it’s not a life-sustaining job.
These words of mine are all paid for with real money. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 Tonight's market is really exhausting! BTC and ETH are completely locked inside the range, with no direction, just going back and forth like a massage and washout.
A slight push upward is immediately crushed by selling pressure, and probing support downward is forcibly pulled back. Neither bulls nor bears dare to make a move; all funds are watching and waiting for tonight's PCE and ADP data releases.
This is a typical stock game scenario now:
The resistance above is tightly pressed, with no volume for a breakout; the support below is extremely firm, unable to fall or break through. ETH is even more ridiculous, with fake moves flying everywhere, small spikes, repeated switches between bull and bear traps, specifically harvesting short-term frequent traders.
The longer the sideways consolidation lasts, the more dead the market feels. The main players are not chasing trends at all, just grinding mentality and washing out floating chips. Many can't resist opening trades frequently, resulting in stop-losses being triggered back and forth and paying fees for nothing.
Remember! Until the range breaks, volume expands, and direction emerges, all fluctuations are traps.
The key tonight is endurance! Patiently wait for the data release and the real volume-driven trend change. Don't blindly operate in the middle of the consolidation!
What do you think about tonight's data release—will it break the range upward or break down and crush the market directly? $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX rises to 0.0085%, matching Ethereum; altcoin position ratio at 1.084 with spot turnover at $84,384.0
OKX's total perpetual positions shrank to $7.646 billion tonight, BTC funding rate climbed to 0.0085%, with open orders first watching the $84,384.0 turnover. Converted, the long annualized cost is around 9.3%. The gap from last night's Ethereum 0.0086% funding rate has been fully closed tonight, both sides paying roughly the same.
I checked the position distribution on the exchange. BTC contracts hold $2.849 billion, ETH takes $1.708 billion, and the remaining $3.089 billion is all in altcoins. The altcoin-to-BTC position ratio climbed to 1.084. The overall Fear & Greed Index stands at 71 greed, total market cap at $2.913 trillion, Bitcoin market dominance at 58.37%, Ethereum at 11.37%.
I looked at funding rates for other major coins. SOL funding rate turned positive back to 0.0100%, BNB at 0.0119%, XRP and DOGE both at 0.0100%. Besides BTC and ETH, major coins are also paying baseline or even premium funding fees. However, total open interest hasn't increased; funds are mostly circulating within altcoins.
I personally held my spot base position during Wednesday night session, without placing overnight long orders in the futures account.The “time difference” in the rate hike probability table: October is a toss-up, December remains a high-pressure line
The same CME rate hike probability table is telling two stories.
In the October cell, the rate hike probability has dropped from nearly 70% a week ago to around 50%; but in the December cell, the probability of at least one more rate hike this year remains in the 86%–90% range.
The divergence is not about "whether to hike or not," but where those dropped percentage points went. They didn’t turn into "no hike," they just moved from October to December.
On September 29, two Fed officials with voting rights spoke on the same day. Williams said there’s no rush after the September hike, but there might be another one later this year; Bahl said further adjustments might still be needed under the baseline scenario.
It sounds like one dove and one hawk, but the conclusion is the same: rate hike pressure remains, just the pace is delayed.
For risk assets, a delay doesn’t mean no cost, it means paying a month later. So after last night’s PCE release, although Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around $84,452, it did not show a strong one-sided breakout.
What really determines the market going forward is not the October probability dropping to a toss-up, but whether the market will continue to push rate hike expectations to December or even later.
Next, watch three things:
1. Whether the October rate hike probability continues to decline;
2. Whether the December rate hike pricing loosens;
3. Whether Friday’s nonfarm payrolls can further change the interest rate path. $BTC #财报观察员: Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand as the focus. Earnings observer: Micron's earnings report is approaching, with AI storage demand as the focus.
Storage leader Micron is about to release its earnings report, and the market's attention is fully focused on AI storage business, with HBM high-bandwidth memory as the core highlight. The explosion of AI large models and AI Agents drives strong demand for HBM, high-capacity DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs in servers. The industry's supply expansion cycle is long, and the tight supply-demand situation is difficult to ease in the short term.
The market is focusing on three main directions: first, HBM shipments, revenue growth rate, and the implementation of long-term supply agreements to assess the true prosperity of AI storage demand; second, the next quarter's performance guidance to see management's judgment on storage price increases and supply-demand patterns; third, capital expenditure plans and the pace of advanced storage capacity expansion, which will directly affect expectations for the entire AI computing power industry chain.
The risk lies in the fact that the current stock price has already priced in a large amount of optimistic expectations in advance. If performance or guidance falls short of expectations, a "good news realization" pullback is likely. Meanwhile, there is market divergence: some institutions believe AI storage is a super cycle, while others worry about the impact on the market after future capacity releases.
Impact on the market: Earnings exceeding expectations will boost sentiment in the semiconductor and AI computing power sectors, indirectly driving risk assets; if below expectations, it will suppress risk appetite for tech stocks and transmit to the crypto market. Going forward, focus on earnings guidance, HBM business data, and statements about supply and demand during the conference call. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #MalaysiaCompliance# Why do these kinds of news always come out of Malaysia?
On one hand, local electricity prices are relatively low, the climate is humid and hot, but data center rents are not expensive; on the other hand, regulators and power companies (like TNB) have in recent years strictly equated "electricity loss = criminal proceeds" — electricity theft for mining is not "taking advantage of the country," but a criminal offense punishable by detention, fines, electricity bill recovery, and possible confiscation of mining machines. Even harsher, unauthorized modification of power distribution carries risks of fire and electric shock; if a neighbor's rice cooker is not cooked, the whole street might start smoking first.
The crypto community loves to talk about "decentralization" and "inflation resistance," but it changes meaning in the village:
Decentralized on-chain, centralized theft of electricity off-chain.
You buy BTC claiming to fight fiat currency, but then freeload on the fiat electricity grid — this narrative won't hold up when the police knock on your door.
There is also a lesson for retail investors:
Don't just treat "miners arrested in a certain country" as gossip. The flow of mining machines, electricity inspections, confiscated rigs auctions, and short-term hash rate fluctuations all affect BTC's short-term hash rate and sentiment. Those who truly understand the industry take Malaysian police reports as seriously as Federal Reserve minutes.
Mining is not a sin; stealing electricity is.
Blockchain talks transparency, and those who steal electricity fear the light the most. $BTC 出现回调，并不意味着趋势一定发生反转。 真正值得关注的，是价格回调不等于反转 $BTC 判断一轮回调是否健康，可以重点观察几个方面： 📌 价格结构：高低点是否仍然保持上移 📌 成交量：回调时的量能是否明显放大 📌 关键支撑：前期突破区域能否继续守住 📌 后续反应：价格在支撑附近能否重新获得买盘 单看价格涨跌，很难判断完整的市场结构。 那么问题来了： 👀 你通常通过哪些信号来区分“健康回调”和“趋势反转”？ #BTCPullback #AltRotation #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbit$BTC, $ETH, and $APT can represent three different perspectives: BTC reflects the overall cycle trend, ETH reflects the overall crypto ecosystem capital, and APT reflects the capital attention on Move-based public chains. Observing these three coins together makes it easier to identify shifts in capital preference within segmented public chain sectors than simply focusing on the price movements of a single coin.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 #MalaysiaCompliance# Caught stealing electricity for mining: Malaysian police investigation reveals that some people don't want to pay the "electricity bill" for Bitcoin
Many people think the most expensive part of mining is the graphics card, but actually the most costly is electricity. Recently, Malaysian police turned this saying into a real-life case: two men were detained on suspicion of stealing electricity for mining. What was dragged out from the scene was not drugs or stolen goods, but rows of still-warm mining machines and tampered electricity meters.
This type of case is an old trick, but there are always people who try:
Instead of registering properly with the power supply bureau, they pry open meters, bypass meters, modify current transformers, and connect wires from transformers to make the power grid "unaware" that these machines are consuming electricity. ASIC miners consume several kilowatts each when running; dozens connected together consume more power than a small factory. Running normally requires paying real money, but running like thieves means stealing the community's line loss and safety margin.Many people still associate CAKE with the previous cycle: high emissions, mining, inflation, and heavy sell pressure, but now it is completely different.
PancakeSwap's TVL is still $2.3 billion, with a 30-day DEX trading volume of $29 billion and protocol revenue of $7.38 million. More importantly, it is truly deflationary: in August, 2.746 million tokens were burned, 674,000 were newly issued, resulting in a net reduction of 2.07 million tokens, a 0.62% decrease in supply for the month. It has been net deflationary for 36 consecutive months, reducing nearly 60 million tokens in total, and the maximum supply has been lowered from 450 million to 400 million.
Yet its circulating market cap is only $870 million. Despite real revenue and ongoing deflation, the market values it under $1 billion. The reasons are mainly the old negative perceptions, overreliance on BNB Chain, and fierce DEX competition.
$CAKEThe most frustrating thing this week isn't the ups and downs, but the divergence.
$BTC has fallen from 87,000 and has been fluctuating between 82,000 and 84,000. The spot side has been accumulating, and the support orders below aren't thin. But in my view, this is a downward consolidation; if it can't break through 84,000, it's bearish, and even if it breaks through, there are layers of resistance at 85,000 and 86,000.
$ETH I'm holding a short at 2671, now around 2670 basically breakeven. It just surged to 2730 and almost triggered my stop loss. This coin is even weaker than BTC; the 2750 to 2800 range is all trapped positions, no chance to break through. On-chain data isn't bad but there's no volume; rebounds without volume are just nonsense. I'm holding the short and waiting it out; after a long sideways, a drop is inevitable.
$ZEC is the most exciting. A couple of days ago it hit a record high of 1700, today it dropped straight to 1400, losing 20% in two days. A speculative coin is a speculative coin: it pumps to make you doubt reality, dumps to make you doubt yourself.
Macro interest rate expectations are suppressing the market; funds dare not enter aggressively. Chasing highs now is just giving away money; I short on every rally.
My strategy: short BTC on rallies; hold ETH shorts with a target of 2500; avoid ZEC and watch the show.US August core PCE rose 3.0% year-on-year, fully below the expected 3.3%. The Fed's most watched inflation indicator cooled down, October rate hike expectations fell, and macro pressure temporarily eased. However, market reaction was muted, and structural changes are occurring in the funding landscape.
$BTC: Institutional moves broke out in the news—Lion Group reduced some BTC holdings and liquidated SOL. Large holders proactively lowered exposure before data release, resulting in weak short-term buying. Macro positives failed to immediately ignite the market; funds are waiting for clearer signals.
$ETH: New progress in the ecosystem—AllUnity launched the MiCA-regulated USD stablecoin USDAU, now live on six chains. Expansion of compliant stablecoin footprint is a long-term positive for ETH's underlying settlement demand, but short-term technical downtrend remains unbroken.
$SOL: Relatively resistant to decline. But news of institutional liquidation of SOL directly suppressed sentiment, requiring short-term absorption of selling pressure. Ecosystem enthusiasm remains, but volatility may increase after losing large holder support.
PCE cooling is good news, but institutional partial withdrawal indicates internal divergence. Technicals are oversold, but macro benefits will take time to materialize.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 What is a bear market?
The bears frequently trigger stop losses from high altitudes
The bulls try to break through but get crushed
At times like this, the news is just a tool to sweep liquidity up and down
Don't take it too seriously
Just play it cool and have fun
Don't wait until there's a real breakout
Only to find your money gone
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Since the four-hour chart for the three giants $BTC $ETH $ZEC shows this kind of pattern, it makes trading much clearer afterward!
This upper wick is so rapid, but the retreat is just as fast, which indicates one thing: it's purely to sweep leverage and hit stop-loss liquidity. So the follow-up strategy is to short on rallies, of course, I'm referring to the regular time periods before any data releases.
After trading for several years, I've found that during normal time periods, most people's predictions are accurate, but it's mostly because many lose due to various data disclosures—I’m no exception! So the best approach is to let the market run its course for thirty minutes after each data release.
Generally, the first 15-minute candle after data release sweeps stop-losses, followed by the next 15-minute candle setting the direction. You can backtest the history; it basically aligns with what I’m saying.The night before last, I went for a walk
Ran into Old Zhang downstairs smoking
He said he recently bought some $BTC again
I didn't say a word after hearing that
But when I got home, I couldn't resist
Downloaded an app and fiddled with it until midnight
That night after buying, I woke up twice
Phone by my pillow
As soon as it lit up, I reached for it to check
If it went up a bit, I felt confident
If it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless
Later, I saw people chatting about $ETH
I followed with a small amount
After fees, I stared blankly at the screen
Switched back and forth a few times
Money didn't increase
But I was exhausted
Once it dropped, I was stubborn
Added a bit more
After adding, it kept dropping
I sat on the balcony smoking half a pack
My wife asked what was wrong
I said nothing
Just a bit tired lately
But deep down I knew
It was greed
Later I deleted the app
Deleted and reinstalled
Reinstalled and deleted
Went back and forth several times
Now I only have a little $SOL left
When it rises, I don't shout
When it falls, I don't sell
I treat the posts showing profits in the group as jokes
When people urge me to rush in, I say wait a bit longer
No borrowing money
No all-in bets
No touching what I don't understand
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything
Profits are luck
Losses are tuition
This business is for fun
Not for a living
These words of mine
Are all bought with real money #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高
#美伊谈判重启，双方让步空间有限 $BTC just dropped like this! I feel the situation is not good.
I noticed that the Greed and Fear Index almost broke into extreme greed yesterday!
I remember the last time it was about to touch extreme greed, the incident on October 10 happened! The Greed and Fear Index then fell to fear in less than a week.
Looking back at the history of the Greed and Fear Index, I found that it has lasted for a very long time, which is very rare even in historical markets.
So, I’m afraid there will be a deep pullback, pushing the index back to the greed zone before it continues to rise.
From a probability perspective! The situation I described has a relatively high chance of occurring.
So, bulls should take care of themselves!
This advice is also for myself!
Take care of yourself! $ZEC is unable to break new highs in the short term; all the rallies are just fakeouts to shake out weak hands. Firmly do not move, do not chase, do not cut losses, patiently wait to buy again near 800 lows!
In the evening, $PCE inflation data fell more than expected, which should be positive for risk assets, but the market completely ignored it. The core issue is not the data but the continued new highs in long-term US Treasury yields, which suppress the market's rebound strength, creating a weak market that even rate cuts cannot rescue.
Currently, the crypto market is overall low volume and oscillating with no new capital inflow. $BTC is dull at high levels with minimal volatility, ETF funds are continuously flowing out, and institutions are watching cautiously throughout.
Clear differentiation among coins:
$ZEC has developed an independent sentiment-driven market; privacy and anti-censorship narratives continue to add value, showing relative strength against the trend, but this is only sentiment-driven, not a trend market.
$ETH passively follows the market with no independent rebound strength, weakly linked to the overall market, with no independent opportunities.
Short-term judgment: $BTC is extremely fragile in the 83000–85000 range, stuck in limbo. Without a drop in long-term yields and continuous net inflows from ETFs, all rises are just rebounds, and declines are traps.
Operational approach: do not chase highs, do not heavily position; watch if $BTC holds 81000, if broken, directly look at 78000. Patiently wait for a clear direction and do not get shaken out by fakeouts from manipulative traders.
This is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
#PCEData #USTreasuryYields #BTC $ZEC $ETHTwo major data events collide tonight: ADP nonfarm payrolls are bearish, PCE inflation data is bullish, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth, making tonight a double-edged battle.
The market first surged to 856, then steadily fell back, now down to 833.
Long positions missed the opportunity, but fortunately, a short position was successfully entered at the rebound high of 853, taking profit at 837, capturing this pullback space.
The rally driven by news is limited in sustainability; resistance at highs presents a trading opportunity. In a volatile market, don't force yourself to catch every move; maintain your own trading rhythm. $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 PCE positive news triggered a reversal, with long positions liquidated heavily within an hour! $BTC saw $23,070,000 liquidated in one hour! $ETH had $14,090,000 liquidated in one hour! Bitcoin surged then pulled back to 83,800!
The one-hour liquidation data is overwhelmingly green, with BTC and ETH long liquidations leading, exactly corresponding to tonight's surge to 85,600 followed by a rapid plunge, wiping out many chasing longs. The current price has fallen back to 83,800.
PCE inflation data was favorable, showing a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact pattern. Despite the positive news, funds did not continue to push higher; instead, they used the opportunity to dump and harvest the longs who chased the price up.
The market has been pushed back into the range, with resistance at 85,500 confirmed again. Short-term, breaking through directly is becoming more difficult.
Short-term support is first seen at 83,200, with strong support at 82,700. If this level does not hold, further testing of the 81,000–81,500 range will occur.
Altcoins like ZEC and other elastic tokens followed Bitcoin's surge and pullback, with longs also liquidated. Altcoins are now completely dependent on Bitcoin and find it difficult to develop independent trends.
The market is volatile with news-driven swings; the recent wave has already wiped out many high-leverage longs. Do not rush to bottom-fish; first observe the strength of support levels. In a choppy market, avoid heavy bets on one side and keep leverage low. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 What stablecoins truly bring to ETH is not just trading volume.
The significance of stablecoins on Ethereum is often simplified as "on-chain transaction activity." In reality, they also serve functions such as quoting, collateralization, cross-border settlement, lending, and mapping real-world assets.
When stablecoins become the base cash of the on-chain economy, ETH gains a settlement layer status. Users may not always directly buy ETH every time, but transfers, contract deployment, security provision, and final settlement still require Ethereum's infrastructure.
The question is whether these activities are sufficient to offset the value capture changes brought by Layer 2 fee compression. If usage grows rapidly but mainnet revenue and ETH demand do not grow in sync, the market will continue to question the transmission efficiency.
I am optimistic about $ETH, not because every stablecoin transfer will immediately push up the price, but because continuous settlement will expand the network's balance sheet. Price can be late, but real usage cannot be absent.Your judgment framework
ZEC is now around $1395. That voice in your head comes again: "It dropped from 1600 to 1395, a 13% drop, is it time to bottom-fish?"
First, answer these four questions:
1. The whale's $27 million profit has already been pocketed. Where is the next whale? The address that built a position at $425 two months ago has already sold out. How many chips bought at 425, 600, and 800 are still waiting to be sold?
2. Open interest has dropped by 13.5%, leverage is withdrawing. This means the "meat grinder" that pushed ZEC from 800 to 1600 is shutting down. Shorts have been cleared, longs are retreating. Who will provide the next wave of buying?
3. When will the 5.58% US Treasury yield drop? As long as oil prices stay above $100, inflationary pressure remains. As long as inflation pressure exists, Treasury yields won't come down. ZEC's "privacy premium" can't outperform the 5.58% Treasury interest.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $ZEC is dropping fast, now around 1422. The market is correcting, ZEC’s rally is losing momentum, and macro pressure remains.
Key levels: 1423 support → 1375 → 1300. Resistance: 1500–1560. I’m holding my short with a stop above 1600, watching 1375 and 1300. $BTC $ETH
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6% $ZEC This market is really something else—sweeping up and down and shaking out both sides!
My position: long at $1,388 with 10x leverage, current price around $1,415, with roughly 20% floating profit.
ZEC has shifted from a one-sided short squeeze into a more volatile, range-bound market. Longs and shorts are becoming more balanced, so instead of chasing a single direction, the better approach is to trade the waves.#DailyOrbit