Aspirin.
Aspirin.
我拥有工程学博士学位，不仅是一个交易员，更是一个数据科学家。在这个充满噪音和情绪的市场里，我只相信数学、对数回归带和历史周期数据。 我的交易哲学很简单：在长周期的博弈中活下来。 Engineering PhD | Data Scientist Trading signals, not emotions. Guided by mathematical modeling, Logarithmic Regression Bands, and historical cycles. Execution: Objective. Rational. Long-cycle focused.
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"Bearish Script Timeline"
October 26, 08:00: The second weekly candle closes below 83,000, confirming a false breakout
Following days: Retrace to the bull market support zone (just above 70,000 to 75,000), sweep the September 15 low, then rebound
October 29, 02:00: Federal Reserve meeting; if no rate hike but PCE is relatively hot that day, long-term yields may rebound, with the 10-year US Treasury returning near 5.3%
November 3: US midterm elections
Mid-November: Stock market decline drives BTC lower, long-term yields peak, forming Q4 lows
There is also a timing reference: local highs in July, August, September, and October all appeared around the 21st, except August extended to September 3. Based on this, the current peak falls between October 21 and November 3. However, with only four samples, this is for reference only.
The only condition to invalidate the entire script is if the weekly candle on October 26 closes back above 83,000.
Pinned
Dates to watch next
October 19: The first weekly candle to be tested
Around October 27: The 1436th day of the cycle
Early morning October 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision
November 3: U.S. midterm elections
Early November: The 50th day after the rate hike
In late November, I will review this plan: which arguments were validated and which were not.
Aspirin.
"BTC Holds Above 83,000: Is July the Bottom, or Will There Be One Last Drop in Q4?"
October 17, 2026 · Saturday · Q4 · Issue 109 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Long time no update. After these days of analysis and review, I believe: According to the four-year cycle pattern, BTC has indeed entered the bear market bottom time window, which will last until late November. However, this round's price does not match historical patterns, so this window may not bring new lows. In the next week or two, just watch the weekly close at $83,000. Before it gives an answer, I won't bet on direction, only prepare trading strategies for two possible outcomes in advance. 01｜The time window has already opened There are two common measures to estimate the bear market bottom time. The first is counting from the bull market peak. The previous three rounds took 406 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively from peak to bottom. This round's peak was on October 6, 2025, so the window is from October 4 to November 16, 2026. Today is the 376th day after the peak. The second is counting backward from the next halving. The previous three lows appeared 542 days, 513 days, and 516 days before the halving. The next halving is around April 2028, so counting back, the window is from October 16 to November 24. The two measures overlap from mid-October to mid-November. If counting from the November 2022 low, the previous two rounds bottomed on the 1432nd and 1436th days respectively, which converts to October 23 to 27 for this round, also within this period. These patterns are not
Today, BTC weekly chart broke below 83,000 twice, confirming a false breakout. I predict one last drop in Q4, with the low point around the December rate decision.
Starting points: BTC 80,000, ETH 2,310, Gold 4,011, 10-year US Treasury 4.99%, Brent crude $115.
October 26-28: BTC retests bull market support zone at 74,000 (72,000 to 76,000)
October 29 02:00: Fed holds rates steady, leaving room for a hike in December
October 29 20:30: September PCE hotter than expected, BTC rebounds to 77,000 but faces resistance at 82,000
October 30 16:00: $10.9 billion BTC options expire
November 3: Midterm elections, BTC fluctuates between 74,000 and 79,000
November 4-25: US stocks catch down, Brent breaks $120, 10-year yield surges to 5.3%, BTC first drops to 67,000
December 10 03:00: Rate hike to 4.00%-4.25%, dollar peaks, BTC bottoms at 60,000 (extreme 55,000)
December 31: Long-term yields fall back, BTC closes at 66,000
Target prices (December low / year-end):
BTC: 60,000 / 66,000
ETH: 1,500 / 1,680
Gold: 3,780 / 4,050, bottoming first
Invalidation condition: Weekly close back above 83,000. Until then, I remain bearish.
Just sharing my personal view
Aspirin.
"After the False Breakout Confirmation: The Complete Script of BTC's Last Drop in Q4"
October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil original
"After the False Breakout Confirmation: The Complete Script of BTC's Last Drop in Q4"
October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil original
"BTC Holds Above 83,000: Is July the Bottom, or Will There Be One Last Drop in Q4?"
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · Q4 · Issue 109 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Long time no update. After these days of analysis and review, I believe: According to the four-year cycle pattern, BTC has indeed entered the bear market bottom time window, which will last until late November. However, the price this round does not match historical patterns, so this window may not bring new lows. In the next week or two, just watch the weekly close at $83,000. Before it gives an answer, I won't bet on direction, only prepare trading strategies for two possible outcomes in advance. 01｜The time window has already opened There are two commonly used measures to estimate the bear market bottom time. The first is counting from the bull market peak. The previous three cycles took 406 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively from peak to bottom. This cycle's peak was on October 6, 2025, so the window is from October 4 to November 16, 2026. Today is the 376th day after the peak. The second is counting backward from the next halving. The previous three bottoms appeared 542 days, 513 days, and 516 days before the halving. The next halving is around April 2028, so counting backward, the window is from October 16 to November 24. The two measures overlap from mid-October to mid-November. Counting from the November 2022 bottom, the previous two cycles bottomed on the 1432nd and 1436th days respectively, which corresponds to October 23 to 27 this cycle, also within this period. These patterns are not
There are 31 hours left until this week's UTC weekly close. This is the first critical test after the breakout and, in my view, also the true indicator to determine the direction of this bull and bear cycle.
Aspirin.
"Restoring Confidence: A Comprehensive Review and Key Closing Judgments for This Week"
Saturday, September 26, 2026 | Q3 · Issue 108 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective To conclude first: I was wrong about this round of the market. I once thought BTC would struggle to break the May high and would likely hit new lows in Q4. Now the previous judgment has been denied by the price, and the latter must be reassessed. To friends who copied trading, those who have read my analysis, and those who have always trusted me, I want to say sorry. I want to make it clear where I went wrong. I pushed macro pressure directly into a definite downward path, underestimating the possibility of an upward breakout. After the price signaled, I did not lower my confidence in my original judgment in time. Bill blocks, hawkish statements, US and Japan rate hikes, shipping obstacles pushing energy prices higher—these negative factors have indeed occurred. But I do not intend to use "the macro view is right, the market just hasn't reacted yet" as an excuse. Whether macro judgments are correct ultimately depends on price, credit, and capital behavior. Reading a few news pieces right doesn't mean understanding how they affect assets. Even if a drop does happen later, it won't prove I was right at the time, because the breakout has already happened, and those who followed my judgment have already borne the price of this market phase. On September 23, I wrote "No longer predicting a new low for the fourth quarter." This article takes it a step further: clearly explain what happened during this period, how I understood it at the time, and what needs to be changed. My current attitude is to respect the breakout that has already occurred and no longer preset a top. Whether this week can hold the May high will determine whether to adjust this attitude further. 1. Profit
"Restoring Confidence, Comprehensive Review and Key Judgments for This Week's Close"
Saturday, September 26, 2026 | Q3 · Issue 108 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective To conclude first: I was wrong about this round of the market. I once thought BTC would struggle to break the May high and would likely hit new lows in Q4. Now the previous judgment has been denied by the price, and the latter must be reassessed. To friends who copied trading, those who have read my analysis, and those who have always trusted me, I want to say sorry. I want to make it clear where I went wrong. I pushed macro pressure directly into a definite downward path, underestimating the possibility of an upward breakout. After the price signaled, I did not lower my confidence in my original judgment in time. Bill blocks, hawkish statements, US and Japan rate hikes, shipping obstacles pushing energy prices higher—these negative factors have indeed occurred. But I do not intend to use "the macro view is right, the market just hasn't reacted yet" as an excuse. Whether macro judgments are correct ultimately depends on price, credit, and capital behavior. Reading a few news pieces right doesn't mean understanding how they affect assets. Even if a drop does happen later, it won't prove I was right at the time, because the breakout has already happened, and those who followed my judgment have already borne the price of this market phase. On September 23, I wrote "No longer predicting a new low for the fourth quarter." This article takes it a step further: clearly explain what happened during this period, how I understood it at the time, and what needs to be changed. My current attitude is to respect the breakout that has already occurred and no longer preset a top. Whether this week can hold the May high will determine whether to adjust this attitude further. 1. Profit
Aspirin · Cycle Lab｜2026.09.17
"Written Before the FOMC"
BTC Strategy:
Short-term 4-hour level: Within 4 hours, a continuously descending parallel channel has formed. Currently, the lower band is supported and rebounds upward. If it rebounds near the 76,600-77,600 middle band and is under pressure (also below the previous support band), after confirming resistance, selling pressure is expected, leading to further pullbacks. Short positions require community monitoring; Additionally, if it fails to fall below the neckline of the parallel bottom, attention should be paid to whether a bullish AMD pattern forms. If a short-term breakout occurs, the target could be the 81,000-82,000 range;
Daily chart:
The daily chart matches the original forecast: after a breakthrough to the rounded top of the upper arc, it pulls back. Although the neckline near 74,800 has not been broken (MACD indicator indicates a further break), the downward trend is already very clear (lows keep falling and volume increases), and a two-line reversal has appeared. For short-term rebounds, focus on the 77,200-79,500 resistance area (short-term trapped positions). Overall, these are unfavorable for bullish upward movement. You can patiently wait for further lows near the 71,000-68,000 area.
So, is BTC in a bull market or a bear market?
Aspirin · Cycle Lab｜2026.09.13 I currently still interpret this market cycle as a correction within a bear market, rather than a confirmed new bull market. However, signs of a bottom do exist, and one should not ignore evidence on the other side just because of a bearish bias. 1. Why we cannot easily dismiss the bulls The weekly RSI previously dropped to about 26, then showed a higher low. This kind of change indicates that the downward momentum is weakening, but whether the price has bottomed still requires separate judgment. The monthly RSI is close to the low range seen in past bear markets, and the proportion of long-term holders has risen and stabilized, which also supports the possibility that the market is entering a bottoming phase. The daily golden cross means the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, and recent price performance has improved. However, moving averages reflect past prices over a period, and a golden cross is not a guarantee of future gains. I acknowledge these changes. They are enough to make me cautious about further declines, but not enough to conclude that the correction is over. 2. Why I remain cautious On-chain valuation has not yet fully reproduced the extreme states seen in previous bear markets. The MVRV Z-Score low in this cycle is about 0.18, not yet below 0; the Puell Multiple has not fallen below the historical low reference line of 0.4. This only indicates that the market has not reached some historically extreme undervaluation levels, and does not prove that prices must continue to fall. Bottoms in different cycles are not obligated to fall at the same indicator levels. By contrast, I place more importance on whether price and capital can mutually confirm each other. 50-week moving average
The daily golden cross of BTC has arrived
September 9, 2026 | Issue 107 Aspirin · Cycle Lab
The so-called daily golden cross means the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. It confirms the previous price strength but does not guarantee continued upward movement.
Let's look at history:
In 2019, near the golden cross, there was a pullback of about 14%–15% from a local high, followed by a rebound that broke the previous high.
In February 2023, the high near the golden cross pulled back about 12%, then rebounded to a new high, and later fell back near the 200-day moving average. The process was not a straight rise.
In July 2014, there was first a pullback of about 8%–9%, then a rebound formed a lower high, and weakness continued until October that year.
In 2015, a similar case saw a pullback of about 13%, followed by a rebound that also failed to break the previous high.
If we assume a hypothetical high of $82,000, pullbacks of 10%, 12%, and 15% correspond to $73,800, $72,160, and $69,700 respectively. This is a historical amplitude conversion, not a guaranteed target nor proof of support levels.
A bearish bias for the next month or so requires confirmation from the rebound structure: resistance near the 50-week moving average, forming a lower high, then breaking below the pullback low to support continued weakness into Q4.
If the rebound breaks the previous high, the weekly chart recovers above the 50-week moving average and holds, the bearish case will weaken.
Pullbacks after a golden cross are not unusual; the rebound after the pullback determines the direction of divergence.
