李松耀（互动版）
李松耀（互动版）
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2:00 AM is just the beginning; 2:30 AM is when the $BTC candlestick really forms
2:00 AM is the decision, 2:30 AM is the market reaction
The probability of a rate hike is about 7%, so no change is almost certain. The real pricing comes from Powell's words: he needs to explain "why pause now" while keeping the option of "possible hike in December." The market has priced in over 70% chance of a December hike. If the press conference treats the "pause" as just a comma, risk assets will be under pressure; if the subsequent path is deliberately downplayed, that would be a marginal positive. Also watch the dissent votes: 2–3 hawkish dissents mean the pause is not solid; zero dissents means it's clean.
Funds and chips: spot is buying, retail is holding
ETF inflow was 110 million in one day, but October still shows a net outflow of 202 million; short-term recovery does not equal trend reversal. More concerning is the futures side: the long-short ratio is 2.39, at the 98th percentile, with large accounts reducing positions and retail increasing leverage to hold. Spot holders are transferring coins out of exchanges, and Binance perpetual shorts have a slight edge—both sides are betting in completely different ways before the event.
Plan
No directional bets before the event. After 2:30 AM, focus only on two things: whether price and long-short ratio rise synchronously. A synchronous surge is an unreliable rebound; do not chase. If hawkish wording pushes BTC price back to 79,100–79,200, and spot CVD recovers while long-short ratio declines, then consider buying. Set stop losses and guard your boundaries.
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
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Just broke through and then got slammed! Those chasing the highs are suffering again
$BTC: 81000 gained and lost again
BTC intraday high reached 81123, then quickly fell back to around 80,990, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to about 1.2%. The 81000–81300 area shows clear selling pressure, leaving an upper shadow in the short term, and the resistance above still needs to be digested. The intraday low reference is 79500; if broken, the pullback structure deepens.
$ETH: 2300 tug of war
ETH fluctuates between 2297 and 2364, currently around 2350. The lower support is gradually rising, but heavy short liquidations near 2367 make it easy to fall back again if the rebound cannot hold above this level. 2300 remains the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears.
Positioning: Shorts are being squeezed, not bulls attacking
About $147 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with shorts at $98.26 million, accounting for 66.7%, and longs only $49 million. This rally is essentially driven by short squeezes; active buying has not clearly taken over. Funding rates are only slightly positive, with neither longs nor shorts overly crowded, but chasing highs before the FOMC has limited cost-effectiveness.
My view: Watch if BTC can reclaim 81300 and if ETH can hold 2300; no chasing before a breakout, wait for confirmation
#10月FOMC利率决议即将公布
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SK Hynix Earnings Night, AI Siphoning, Crypto Market Lacking Fuel
SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit is expected to be about 77 trillion KRW, with Citi even betting on 81.3 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 614%. However, the stock price has dropped 52% from its June peak, and despite earnings beating expectations, the price can't rise — the market has already priced this in. What really matters is the production schedule of HBM4 and the intensity of shareholder returns discussed in the earnings call.
For the crypto market, the impact of this earnings report is not a "positive," but a "siphoning." South Korea's AI chip capital expenditure competes for the same pool of risk capital as crypto. Bitcoin miners are also shifting hash power toward AI hosting because contract revenue is more stable than mining. DRAM price increases continue to raise mining rig costs, systematically pushing up BTC's marginal production cost. More subtly, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and KOSPI has turned negative to -0.41 — when Korean chip stocks fall, BTC doesn't necessarily follow; but the ongoing AI capital cycle continuously draws incremental funds away, leaving crypto without upward fuel.
$BTC is stuck tugging back and forth at the $80,000 psychological level, with the Fed holding steady almost openly. The real test is the leverage liquidation chain if $80,000 is breached. $ETH has broken below the 2350 uptrend line, funding rates have plunged 56% in 24 hours, whales have turned bearish, and EMA120 (around 2333) is the mid-term watershed that bulls must defend.
The earnings report confirms one thing — AI's capital attraction remains strong, and crypto's "relative weakness" is not a sentiment issue but a structural one.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
The same strong sector, two different chip rhythms
$ZEC ｜Short squeeze structure, waiting for catalyst
$BTC broke below 80000, ZEC above 1200, current price 1241, 24H counter-trend rise about 2%. The most eye-catching is the chips: open interest did not decrease but increased, retail long-short ratio dropped to 0.85, shorts are fully squeezed; open interest contracts exceed 41.1 million, the strongest since mid-September; NU7 upgrade locked around November 5**, block time compressed from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. But the resistance at 1,270 above is clear, a 4 million sell wall, short squeeze is short squeeze, the previous high is not a very cost-effective point for chasing longs.
$VVV ｜Unlock window, testing quality
VVV is near 27, but only confirmed rebound after breaking above 27.90 on September 9, falling below the 22–$23 area.
Both are sectors that outperformed BTC this year (VVV +1431% YTD, ZEC +137%), the difference is that ZEC is waiting for catalyst in a short squeeze structure, while VVV is testing quality in an unlock window. Different rhythms, don’t use the same position language.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Brothers, the FOMC decision lands tomorrow night. Now is not the time to bet on direction, but to see who shows weakness first.
$BTC: 79,400-80,800, trapped in a narrow range
BTC keeps getting bought up repeatedly between 79,400-79,600, but is pushed back down at 80,500-80,800. ETFs have had net outflows of $772 million for two consecutive days. Institutions are proactively reducing positions before the event—not out of panic, but because they don’t want to play along. As long as 79,400 holds, it’s still grinding; once FOMC leans hawkish and oil prices continue to rise, the downside directly targets the 77K PUT defense line.
$ETH: More fragile than BTC, 2,313 is the critical point
ETH has already broken below the 2,350 uptrend line, funding rates have plunged 56% in 24 hours, and whales have clearly turned bearish. Below 2,313 lies over $670 million in leveraged longs—that’s the densest liquidation risk in the coming days. ETH is now under attack from both sides: technical expectations have failed + ETFs have had outflows for four consecutive weeks, so its downside elasticity is much greater than BTC’s.
Strategy in one sentence
Don’t chase longs or bottom-fish before the FOMC. For BTC, watch if 79,400 holds; for ETH, watch if 2,313 breaks. Hawkish pause = first kill leverage then talk direction; dovish + ETF inflows = only then a decent rebound, but not the start of a big bull market.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Before the FOMC, don't bet on direction
$BTC: Repeated battles around the 80,000 level
• Dipped to 79,280, four consecutive daily declines, 80,000 shifted from support to a contested zone
• 24h total network liquidations about 578 million, bulls account for 91%
• Retail long-short ratio 0.4861, liquidations increased, but open interest rose against the trend
• ETF weekly net inflow 301 million, outflow of 773 million in the last two days of the week
• Key level: 79,200 is the defense line, only above 82,000 can recovery be discussed
$ETH: Bullish exposure not yet fully cleared
• Low at 2,276, currently around 2,320, cumulative October drop over 12%
• Long liquidations account for 74%; ETH ETF lost 1.18 billion in October
• Hayes liquidated ETH holdings, upgrade delayed, sentiment under pressure
• Long-short ratio still 2.46, more downside fuel than BTC
• If 2,300 breaks, look to 2,220; open interest over 30 billion, may amplify liquidations
In short
BTC is being minced, ETH is clearing accounts. Before the FOMC release, surviving volatility is more important than betting on direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
FOMC, PCE, $11 billion options settlement
$BTC, $ETH tug-of-war repeats, three events this week will concentrate pricing on the short-term direction
October 29 FOMC decision and press conference
The Federal Reserve is very likely to maintain 3.75%—4.00% unchanged, with CME pricing the probability of no change at about 91%. The real trading variable is not "whether to hike or not," but the chairman's wording on the December path—the market has priced in nearly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, and any hawkish confirmation will push up real rates and suppress risk assets. Wintermute warns that the current implied volatility is low, and the market may be underestimating the volatility risk around the decision
October 29 PCE + Q3 GDP
September PCE is the inflation indicator the Fed truly anchors on, released the day after the FOMC meeting. If core PCE continues the previous cooling trend of 3.0%, it is slightly favorable for BTC; if it remains sticky and exceeds expectations again, the "higher for longer" narrative will directly suppress rebound space
October 30 about $11 billion BTC options monthly settlement
Deribit's monthly options nominal expiration scale is about $10.97 billion, with call contracts about twice the number of puts. But nominal scale does not equal directional signal—the market makers' hedging adjustments before and after expiration often amplify short-term volatility, with the $83,000—$85,000 range as the short-term battleground
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
Breakdown Warning: BTC / ETH Defense Lines Are Collapsing
Core Judgment: This is not a shakeout, but a defensive collapse
$BTC fell below 80000 over the weekend, with an intraday low spike at 79332. The 79000—80000 range is the only effective support zone recently; if the daily close is below 79000, 78000 will be directly exposed. Until 82000 is reclaimed above, all rebounds are escape windows, not reversals.
ETH: ETF continues to bleed
$ETH broke below 2300, currently around 2321, with moving averages in a bearish alignment since the 2526 peak. More critically, the capital flow: ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $221 million this week, totaling $1.18 billion in October, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows, indicating institutions are voting with their feet. 2280 is a previous low; a valid break below it will open a downside target of 2,150.
Long positions are being liquidated, not "shaken out"
In the past 24 hours, long liquidations across the network reached $82.01 million, while shorts were only $36.7 million, with a long-to-short liquidation ratio exceeding 2:1; ETH long liquidations were $22.41 million, the highest among all coins. Leveraged longs have not been fully cleaned out yet, but the fuel for rebounds is running out.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
BTC down, OI up, positive funding rate: the most fragile long structure
Market situation:
$BTC 79200—80600 weak, below 1H moving average
$ETH 2280—2350, RSI around 40, weak momentum
Spot: BTC
ETF weekly net inflow 301 million, but outflow 636 million on Thursday, 138 million on Friday; ETH weekly outflow 221 million, bleeding for four consecutive weeks.
Futures: BTC
OI up 2.05% to 7.72 billion, funding rate +0.0031%, longs holding positions; ETH OI down 2.9% to 5.37 billion, long-short ratio 2.6—2.7, still crowded. 24h long liquidations 443 million: BTC 154 million, ETH 136 million.
My perspective:
BTC down, OI up, positive funding rate, stop losses accumulating below. Watch 79,200 first, if broken then 78,000. ETH key at 2,181: a whale's 272 million long liquidation price was just pressed down by additional margin, less than 5% from current price, a passive selling pressure trigger.
My observation:
BTC funding rate turning negative has more bottom significance than a breakdown; ETH watch if OI continues to shrink. Do not chase shorts, do not catch falling knives.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
Brothers, it's time to go all in, now is a great opportunity to buy the dip
 80,000 is a starting point: BTC and ETH bottoms are converging
$BTC bottom structure is forming
At $80,500, it rebounded after receiving support at the 365-day moving average. The 30-day volatility compressed to 6%, stuck in the $80,000–$86,000 range for 9 consecutive days—volatility contraction often precedes a directional choice.
Doctor Profit clearly marks the $80,000–$81,000 range as a long-term accumulation zone, with the next target at $94,000. Capital flow aligns: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 5,183 BTC this week, turning cumulative flow positive for 2026; whale selling pressure has been declining since July, with a net accumulation of 243k BTC in less than 3 months.
$ETH supply is tightening in the shadows
The $2,300 level is repeatedly defended by buyers, forming the strongest support in the current structure. The staking rate has risen to 36%, a historical high, with over one-third of ETH choosing to lock up rather than sell. Exchange balances dropped to 3.49%, the lowest on record.
Chips available for immediate sale are systemically decreasing; once marginal buying returns, price elasticity will be amplified.
My logic: BTC has moving average support + ETF turning positive + whale accumulation; ETH has strong support + structural supply contraction. Downside space is compressed, only a catalyst is missing for the upside.
#10月FOMC临近，美联储暂停加息还有哪些变数？
