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1) BTC Trend and Key Levels BTC is currently around 83,800, having pulled back from the recent high above $86,000 a few days ago. In the short term, this is a high-level retracement and has not yet broken the rebound structure. Key levels: · Support: 83,000 · Strong support: 81,500 · Short-term resistance: 86,500 · Further resistance: 88,000 The main focus now is not "whether it can continue to rise," but whether there will be support around $82,000. If it holds, it can still be considered a normal pullback after the rise; if it fails, the market may return to around $80,000 for consolidation. 2) 🔵 ETH Trend and Strength ETH is currently around $2,650, down about 1%-2% in the last 24 hours, generally following BTC's pullback but has not yet formed a very strong independent leading structure relative to BTC. Key levels: · Support: 2,620 · Strong support: 2,500 · Resistance: 2,820 ETH ETFs have recently maintained capital inflows, but the price performance has not fully matched the strength of the funds, indicating that the market seems to be institutions slowly absorbing while short-term traders are taking profits. Only if ETH reclaims $2,750 and the ETH/BTC ratio improves simultaneously can it be considered to truly take over from BTC. 3) 🧠 Market Sentiment Market sentiment is neutral to slightly greedy, with differing readings from various indices: · CFGI: 44, neutral, lower than yesterday's 55 and last week's 69. · Another set of readings based on Alternative.me data: 74, greedy. This divergence itself indicates: prices remain strong, but sentiment indicators are somewhat cautious about short-term gains. Momentum chasing funds are becoming cautious, and volatility may increase during pullbacks. 4) 💰 Capital Volume / Fund Flows As of the most recent verifiable public data: · BTC spot ETFs had a single-day net inflow of about $134M, marking 7 consecutive trading days of net inflows. · ETH spot ETFs had a single-day net inflow of about $86.95M, marking the 6th consecutive trading dayETH Today's Data Snapshot Whale with $8.86M position on a 1% life-or-death line, while shorts face $1B liquidation risk overhead ETH is currently priced at $2,696, rebounding 2.13% from the low of $2,640 four hours ago, with a market cap of about $328.3B. But beneath the rebound, turbulent undercurrents brew — five whales holding million-dollar positions collectively have $32.12M long positions, with liquidation prices concentrated between $2,613 and $2,631. Among them, three whales with $8.86M positions are only 0.95%–1.07% away from the current price, risking cascading liquidations if the price dips further. The largest single position is $20.2M with a liquidation price of $2,613, accounting for 62.9% of the whales' total holdings. On the liquidation map's other side, shorts face even heavier risk: if ETH breaks above $2,779, mainstream CEX short liquidations could reach $1.002B; conversely, if it falls below $2,529, long liquidations could hit $633M. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $192M in liquidations, with ETH longs liquidated for $17.62M and shorts for $10.56M. Capital inflows continue. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $690M last week, with BlackRock's ETHA leading weekly inflows at $326M, a historical cumulative net inflow of $13.94B, total ETF net assets of $17.78B, and a net asset ratio of 5.42%. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $ETH $XDP is frustrating, bidding with one less zero, now stuck at the highest point First long liquidation wave is hitting. $81.5K–$82.7K is the first major long liquidation zone. Lose $81.5K and $80K could get swept fast. Hold it, and the reset may be exactly what $BTC needs. #DailyOrbit $ZEC momentum is starting to show signs of weakness. 👀 Price is hovering around $1,549 after slipping nearly 2% today. The bullish push is cooling off, and now the key question is whether sellers can gain control. I’ve opened a short position from here using 100x leverage. ➤ $1,549 remains the key level to watch ➤ Weak momentum could open the door to further downside ➤ A strong buyer comeback would change the setup No blind bets—just watching the price reaction from here. 📊 #DailyOrbit I stopped trying to make every trade exciting. That sounds simple, but it took me a long time to understand. Sometimes the best decision is: “No setup. No trade.” No FOMO. No random entry. No forcing a position because the market looks boring. Especially on days like today, when $BTC is moving sharply around the $83K area, patience becomes part of the strategy. Not trading is still a decision. How often do you actually stay out when there’s no clear setup? #DailyOrbit A Bloody Lesson! Heavy Bets on Nonfarm Payrolls Suffer a Massive -94% Loss, Never Stake Your "Last Chips" in Trading! "This is my all-in with the last chips" — Behind this bold declaration lies a brutal -94.70% loss screenshot! 💥 Life-saving rules every retail trader must remember: 1. 🛡️ Always preserve your principal: Once you use your "last chips," your mindset will completely lose balance, leading to excessive leverage beyond your risk tolerance. 2. 🌊 Respect macro data: When data like Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE are released, the market often shows sharp two-way spikes, and high-leverage longs and shorts are easily liquidated. 3. 🔄 Don’t stubbornly fight market trends: When the market moves against your subjective expectations, timely stop-loss is the best protection for your principal, not holding on to the end. 💡 Trading advice: As long as the green hills remain, there’s no fear of running out of firewood. The market offers opportunities every day, but once your principal is gone, you’re truly out of the game $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Are the US and Iran going to talk about the Strait of Hormuz again? I actually think oil prices will fall. Seeing the US and Iran continue negotiations on the conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz, many people are shouting that geopolitical conflicts will escalate and oil prices will rise. To be honest, after reading this, I actually think oil prices will drop. Why? Because as they keep negotiating, it means it will really open. The previous rise in oil prices was all due to the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz might be blocked. Now that they are actually sitting down to talk, it means the worst-case scenario won't happen. My own move: I don't touch anything related to crude oil at all; the risk is too high at this point. If I want to play geopolitical games, I'd rather buy BTC, which at least is bullish in the long term, while oil prices that have risen a lot will still have to fall back. Of course, I'm not saying the talks will definitely succeed, but this expectation is good for the market. Once uncertainty is resolved, whether good or bad, the market can rise. What do you think, if the US and Iran really reach an agreement, how low can oil prices fall? $BTC $BTC I am the mid-term intelligence guy. NVIDIA just announced: the board approved an additional $150 billion stock repurchase authorization, raising the remaining total to $235 billion, covering through fiscal year 2028, claiming the largest buyback authorization in history. This signal is very straightforward — management believes the stock price is still undervalued, with cash flow so strong they dare to invest hundreds of billions to support the price. This is a strong boost for the AI theme; the chip leader is backing its valuation with real money, which will lift the Nasdaq and AI chain sentiment. But don’t just look at the positives; the $235 billion is an authorization limit, not an immediate buyout. The pace depends on stock price and cash flow; if the growth rate of performance slows at the margin, buybacks won’t be able to sustain the valuation. Mid-term focus on NVDA, and even more on the realization of AI capital expenditures. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus [Old Leek Observation] Recently, there has been a noticeable change in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector. Previously, talking about RWA basically meant one thing: moving traditional assets like stocks, bonds, and funds onto the blockchain. But moving assets onto the chain is actually just the first step. The really interesting part is that recently, some people have started integrating these assets further into DeFi. And this pathway is gradually coming together. Let's first look at the asset side. $ONDO is working on turning traditional financial assets like stocks and ETFs into on-chain assets. In February this year, Ondo's SPYon and QQQon entered the Morpho lending market, where they can be used as collateral to borrow other assets. This step is very important. Previously, after a stock was tokenized, it basically meant: buy it → hold it. After entering the lending market, it becomes: buy it → collateralize → borrow money → participate in other on-chain financial activities. Traditional assets are beginning to have "productive capacity" in DeFi. Then there's $MORPHO. Morpho addresses how to establish independent, risk-isolated lending markets after these new assets enter the lending system. This is also why tokenized stocks have real value—not just letting you buy a share of stock on-chain, but turning stocks into collateral that can enter the on-chain financial system. Recently, Aave has taken another step forward. $AAVE V4 has launched Equities Hub on Base. Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta,As usual, a quick look at the balance before bed～ BTC bounced back from 82630 to 83300, ETH at 2675. I’m watching OKX and feel a bit relieved, but I’m not celebrating too early. Last night, Trump's news about Hormuz hit 82630, causing a lot of floating losses on long positions. At least now it’s recovered a bit, and hasn’t continued to crash down. I scanned the order book; the buy orders around 83300 aren’t aggressive, but the selling pressure isn’t as heavy as before, indicating most panic sellers have exited. What’s left are some holding on and bottom-fishers. ETH is similar, pulled from 2653 to 2675, giving ETH a breather following BTC, but it still can’t break 2700, clearly weak. Key levels I marked: BTC: Support at 82800-83000, as long as it doesn’t break on a pullback, it’s stable; resistance at 83800-84000, only a volume breakout above this can target 84800. ETH: Support at 2640-2660, breaking below means weakness; resistance at 2700-2720, failure to break means just a rebound. My strategy: If $BTC pulls back near 82800 with low volume and stops falling, I might add some to lower my average price; if it pushes to 84000 without volume, I’ll take partial profits first. If ETH holds above 2700, I’ll hold; if it can’t break through, I’ll reduce. How far this rebound can go depends on progress in the US-Iran talks. Once geopolitical news calms down, market sentiment will return.Wow! A whale with a $35 million short position just admitted defeat and exited. This epic short squeeze and liquidation wave in ZEC is not just a big event for altcoins; the panic sentiment quickly spread, causing many shorts to become wary and start withdrawing their short positions from Bitcoin and Ethereum. BTC current price 81650 Resistance at 83800, with heavy take-profit selling pressure between 83000-83800; support at 80200, with many long stop-loss orders around 80000. ETH current price 2662 Resistance at 2750, with large take-profit sell orders between 2700-2750; support at 2540. SOL current price 183 Resistance at 192, support at 174. XRP current price 0.521 Resistance at 0.553, support at 0.492. Data shows that short positions in the futures market have decreased by nearly 180 million U. After the whale was stopped out, market shorting confidence was shaken, and funds flowed back into mainstream coins, giving BTC and ETH an upward boost. $BTC $ETH $SOL Damn, ambushed $LIT, ambush failed. The trend was right, just didn't buy at the right entry point, otherwise this wave should have been profitable. This afternoon I made three lit trades, always felt the drop was strong, mainly because the four-hour chart has already shown a downtrend, the previous support level was broken, so I was mostly short, but the short positions weren't chosen well, resulting in not making much profit. But making a little is still good, a small progress every day. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $LIT 【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:LITE】 Monitored address 0xaa53 opened a long position: ▪ Execution price: 901.11 USD ▪ Transaction amount this time: 360,444 USD ▪ Leverage: 10x Note: This address has earned over 234,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +14.72% 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H BTC anchors liquidity. ETH measures market breadth, while ZEC reflects selective participation. If volume and OI fail to follow price, conviction can weaken. BTC confirms + participation rises → 🚀 Momentum BTC confirms + participation fades → ⚠️ Weakening Watch the confirmation layer. 🔥👀 After $QNT, Which Asset Could Be Next to Gain Attention From Wall Street Infrastructure? 🧵👇 $QNT’s recent surge has been linked to its cooperation with TCH, the fourth-largest clearinghouse in the U.S. But at its core, the story is still largely based on a technology-service narrative. Traditional financial institutions adopting blockchain technology does not automatically mean the associated token captures that value. Once the bullish narrative is priced in, it’s important not to confuse i🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H BTC sets direction. ETH tests participation, while ZEC reflects capital rotation. The sharper signal comes when price action is supported by volume and OI. BTC holds + breadth expands → 🚀 Broadening BTC holds + breadth fades → ⚠️ Divergence Risk management matters when confirmation weakens. 🔥🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H BTC anchors the structure. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta rotation. Price + volume + OI remain the key confirmation layer. BTC leads + ETH/ZEC confirm → 🚀 Expansion BTC leads + ETH/ZEC fade → ⚠️ Narrow Strength Let participation validate momentum. 🔥Strategy just added 1,665 $BTC , lifting its total to 847,666 $BTC as of September 27, 2026. The bigger signal may actually be the $152 million STRC repurchase, made while the company still holds $6.02 billion in USD assets. Buying Bitcoin and buying back preferred stock at the same time suggests a treasury actively managing both conviction and balance sheet strength. #DailyOrbit It's late at night, brewing a cup of bitter coffee, watching the green K-line flicker on the screen, yet an inexplicable sense of melancholy and caution rises in my heart. Last week, nearly $2.386 billion flowed into the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, setting the highest record in a whole year. For seven consecutive trading days, institutions seemed to be buying without regard to cost, with nearly $3 billion flooding in like mercury spilling. Bitcoin rose about 43.5% in Q3, on track to achieve the second-best third-quarter performance since the wild bull market of 2017. Those old investors who had been silent for half a year in my social circle started to stir restlessly, shouting “$100,000 in sight.” But after years of navigating the market, I smell not just the celebration but also the scent of fire cooking oil. Look closely at the data: the frenzy of nearly $1 billion inflow on September 21 sharply dropped to $134 million by September 25. This cliff-like momentum slowdown at a high level resembles a marathon runner gasping for breath by the roadside after a sprint. The crypto circle today is no longer the old world of a few mining rigs and geeks chatting around a stove at night. It has been firmly taken over by Wall Street's capital giants. When the US stock market sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold. Looking at the macro landscape, the S&P 500 is still pushing higher, the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are tugging back and forth (SoftPCEStrongDemand CPIInLineFedWatch), and traditional funds are frantically searching for reservoirs with both hedging and growth attributes. What's even more interesting are the tokenized US stock assets—such as ALGO has risen nearly 15% in the last 24 hours, with the price returning to around $0.134. This increase is quite noticeable in the current market, but there is no single clear catalyst explaining the rise. From a fundamental perspective, Algorand has always followed a pure PoS route, with fast transaction confirmations and low fees, and no major technical issues. Over the past year, it has made some moves in RWA and institutional cooperation, such as integration with certain payment projects, but these developments have been slow and don’t seem like narratives that could directly trigger a short-term rally. Therefore, this surge is more likely due to a combination of factors: first, ALGO consolidated for quite a while in the 0.11-0.12 range, with relatively concentrated holdings, so once buying interest comes in, it’s easy to push the price up; second, the overall market sentiment has been relatively warm recently, with funds looking for lagging assets, and ALGO fits the profile of “long downtrend + solid technical foundation”; third, there may be some pre-positioned expectations on the news front, but no concrete public evidence yet. It’s important to note that ALGO’s historical price action often shows rapid rallies followed by pullbacks. The 0.14-0.15 range was a previously dense trading zone, and only a volume breakout above this level would truly open up upward space. Otherwise, chasing the price higher in the short term carries significant risk. Overall, this rally has logical support but is not yet at a level where one can blindly be bullish. $ALGO The scariest thing about this drop isn't the fall itself, but that no one is panicking. BTC has fallen from a high of 87,400 to around 83,000, a 5% retracement. According to the script, at times like this, some should be cutting losses, some liquidated, some shouting crash. But in reality, the fear and greed index is still stuck at 74, firmly in the greed zone. The Binance retail long-short account ratio is 1.36 and still climbing; the harder it falls, the more enthusiastically people buy. The large holders' position ratio has also reached 1.84, with 65% of positions still held long. So today, I'll be blunt: the most dangerous signal is that this drop fails to trigger panic. What does a real bottom look like? Funding rates turn negative, the proportion of long accounts drops below 40%, and stop-loss selling dumps chips out. That moment looks like a bottom. Now look at the current situation: BTC funding rate is 0.0065%, settled every 8 hours, sluggish as if nothing happened. $8 billion in contract positions remain firmly in the market. It dropped 5%, yet no one got liquidated. A market where no one is liquidated has no fuel for a reversal. Your logic for bottom-fishing is "others panic, I am greedy," but the data tells you no one is panicking at all. You're just squeezed in the same long pit with 57% of retail traders and 65% of large holders, waiting for the next big bearish candle to liquidate everyone who hasn't been wiped out yet. $ETH $ZEC $BTC #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #OnTheEveOfSanDiskEarnings, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussions $BTC shuttles repeatedly between 81,500 and 84,200 like a tireless oscillator. Those placing low orders get trapped right after execution, and those taking profits at highs just miss out after exiting—both sides suffer. On-chain data shows whale addresses increased holdings by over 20,000 coins in the past week, yet the price can't rise. This mismatch between capital and price movement indicates selling pressure and support are intertwined, with no side gaining the upper hand. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the explosive move when the direction is finally chosen. $ETH is tangled around 2,610; near 2,688 some sell off, and below 2,580 some buy the dip. My long position at 2,655 remains open; I added a bit during yesterday's spike and took partial profits on today's rebound, leaving the rest to float. It's not that I don't want to exit, but until the range breaks, all the back-and-forth is noise. Bears haven't given up, and bulls haven't eased. $SOL has distanced itself from the market, climbing from 112 to 118, adding two more points. This kind of independent trend usually doesn't follow others' rhythms, but the sharper the rise, the fiercer the fall. I'm just watching from the sidelines, not entering—after being whipped back and forth several times in a one-sided move, the current consolidation ties bulls and bears together. The most feared in a volatile zone is frequent flipping; just when I turn bullish it crashes, just when I turn bearish it soars, and in the end, all work goes to spreads and fees $BTC $ETH $ZEC If there is a volume increase and a stop in the decline near $82,000, I will lightly try going long, with a stop loss set below $81,000. If the daily closing price breaks below $81,689, I won't catch the falling knife; I'll wait to see around $78,500-79,000. This Wednesday's PCE and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls are variables; before the data comes out, heavy positions in any direction at this level are just gambling on luck. $84,109 is the first card the bulls need to reclaim; if they can't, consolidation is the best outcome. ##This week faces key Nonfarm and PCE data $BTC I believe October is more inclined towards a corrective downtrend consolidation. Some good mainstream altcoins as well as leveraged trading on Bitcoin and Ethereum can gradually be accumulated in batches. As I always say, don't short any altcoins, especially those with strong applications; if you want to short, only Bitcoin is an option. The community has already opened spot hedging short positions around 86000 and is still holding them, looking at the wave 2 pullback on the weekly level. Currently, two supports are being observed to see if the spot buying volume can follow. If it holds, I will close the short positions and continue buying spot Bitcoin and Ethereum, then open a low-leverage long-term long position to hold. For altcoins, I do not use any leveraged trading, only spot strategies. One reason is the high market volatility, and the other is that for long-term holdings, funding fees are also a considerable cost.This short position currently has a floating profit of 194.92%. The issue now is no longer whether there is profit, but whether this downtrend can continue to extend and further increase the profit? Currently, the overall BTC market remains weak, and mainstream coins continue to be under pressure. This market environment is indeed more favorable for shorts. But coins like $NEAR really cannot be taken lightly. Everyone knows how volatile it is; even if the overall trend is bearish, there could suddenly be a rapid surge that catches shorts off guard. Now it has entered a very tricky position: 📉 Hold on and there’s a chance to catch a bigger drop later; 📈 Suddenly rebound, and most of the accumulated floating profit might quickly be given back. High leverage trading is like this. It’s painful when losing, and equally agonizing when profiting. Not setting take profit always worries you that the profits already in hand might fly away in the end; taking profit early makes you fear missing out on the real big move later. Tonight, just quietly observe, no rush to predict. Focus on whether $NEAR can continue to weaken, while prioritizing profit protection. Floating profit is not realized profit until secured. The market is not over, so trading cannot be taken lightly. #NEAR #BTC #Crypto #Trading #Short #加密货币 #交易TVL has increased, but first distinguish whether it is due to more deposits or a rise in coin price. The locked value is calculated in USD, so it naturally is affected by price changes. If the amount of $ETH in a protocol remains completely unchanged, an increase in ETH price can still raise the USD TVL. Thus, no new funds have entered the network, yet the chart shows growth. This metric still has its uses, but it cannot be directly equated with net inflow. A more complex situation is when assets are reused. The equity certificates generated after staking enter other protocols, and different statistical methods may cause the same economic exposure to appear in different places. When seeing the ecosystem scale grow, understanding how the data is calculated is more reliable than immediately converting the total into a valuation multiple. When I look at ETH’s fund status, I separate the coin-denominated amount, USD value, and actual inflow. Price revaluation indicates the market has changed its pricing; new deposits show users have increased allocation; recursive staking may increase leverage. All three changes make the screen busier but bring different stability. Long-term bullish on Ethereum requires a willingness to question attractive data more. Not all growth should be dismissed, nor should all growth be met with the same excitement. If business usage and real fund retention improve simultaneously, scale expansion is of higher quality; if it mainly relies on coin price and layered staking, the numbers may shrink faster during a pullback. Research is not about shouting the largest figure but identifying how much can remain after volatility.30U revival challenge continues from the campus 💻📉 $ETH slipped from 2724 and my dip buys kept getting stopped out. $BTC also fell from 85K to 82K, with 85K now acting as resistance. Still holding a small ETH long, hoping for a bounce. Current funds: 50U. 😮‍💨 #DailyOrbit Recently, some users have discovered that the $CORE node staking page is showing a 503 error and is temporarily inaccessible, causing concern among many staking users. After the page became inaccessible, various speculations quickly emerged within the community, with some even worrying: Is the staking entry temporarily restricted, thereby affecting users' ability to unlock or sell assets? It is important to emphasize that these are currently only community-level speculations, and there is no sufficient evidence to prove any manipulation or that the project team is taking advantage to sell off. The 503 error itself could also be caused by server overload, system maintenance, or temporary technical faults, so it is inappropriate to draw conclusions before official further explanations. However, the real issue worth attention is: 🔸 Node staking has always been regarded as an important part of the project ecosystem; 🔸 When the staking page is unavailable, users may temporarily be unable to view related statuses or perform normal operations; 🔸 If the market simultaneously experiences a downturn, locked assets that cannot be flexibly managed will further amplify holders' sense of risk. A simple message like "System is under maintenance, please wait patiently" might explain the technical issue, but for users with locked assets, the inability to promptly confirm asset status and operational permissions is enough to cause uncertainty. This incident also reminds everyone participating in staking: High returns often come with liquidity costs. Once assets enter long-term staking or locked status, users' immediate control over funds decreases. Regardless of how complete the project narrative is, the stability of core services, unlocking mechanisms, and emergency plans should all beMany people study trading every day—candlestick charts, indicators, Chan theory, Elliott waves, Wyckoff method, learning them one by one. Honestly, it’s not that useful. The core of trading boils down to a few sentences: be confident to bet big when you’re sure, cut losses immediately when you’re wrong, hold steady and don’t panic when you’re right. What you really lack isn’t some secret trading technique, but the execution power to actually do it once you know it. $BTC $ETH $ZEC How hard is execution? Everyone understands the principle of losing weight: eat less and move more. Even just doing the eating less part can make you lose weight. Teacher Tony eats only one meal a day for years, keeping his weight steady at 120 jin. If you can’t manage three proper meals a day and still have a late-night snack, who else but you will get fat? I don’t believe you can eat only one meal a day and still get fat. Trading follows the same logic. I don’t believe you can truly cut losses decisively when wrong and hold on when right, yet still end up with a losing account. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Digging through this layer of carbonized strata, what lies buried inside is not gold at all, but panic ashes identical to those from the Bronze Age collapse before the Common Era. Day 12 of the 100U doubling challenge, with current remaining funds at 312U. There is nothing new under the sun; reviewing the chronological history of the Roman Empire's denarius silver coin devaluation, and then looking at $AAVE struggling around 148.47 USDT, the parabolic arcs of the decline astonishingly coincide. The current Bollinger Bands middle line at 150.76 has long been lost, like the weathered and collapsed outer wall of a city-state. The 1-hour RSI has dropped to 40.0, with bears hammering the foundation; the lower band at 145.36 is the last rammed earth layer of this ruin. Many mistakenly think a pullback is an opportunity to dig for treasure, but the parchment clearly states: every blind bottom-fishing at structural breaks ultimately becomes a burial item. My modest principal of about three hundred dollars cannot withstand any strata collapse. I must be as meticulous as cleaning millennia-old pottery shards with a brush, seizing the chance to cut in along the cracks of human panic when the rebound touches the broken walls and ruins. - Target: $AAVE 🔴 - Entry: 148.50 - 150.50 - TP1: 145.40 - TP2: 141.20 - SL: 152.80 As long as the load-bearing beam above 152.80 is not re-compacted, the collapse of this temple is just a matter of time.🏛️📜 #StrategyPlaybook#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver $BTC remains trapped between $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in six-day ETF inflows. Strong demand, but no clear breakout yet. $ETH is stuck around $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short remains partially open. $SOL is outperforming, climbing $117→$122, but chasing strength here carries pullback risk. In this choppy range, patience beats constant position flipping. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Strategy has made another move—are you still waiting for a pullback? Strategy has resumed Bitcoin purchases after a roughly ten-week pause and now holds around 846,000 BTC, equivalent to about 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The return of such a large corporate buyer is an important market signal, suggesting continued institutional demand at current price levels. But it’s also worth staying cautious. The total stablecoin market cap remains relatively flat around $312B, roughly 3% below its Today I felt especially moved by the market. BTC once dropped back to around $83,000, and most altcoins followed suit; but on the other hand, $QNT has shown a completely different trend in the past week due to The Clearing House's bank tokenized deposit project in the US and real Tokenized Deposit trading by UK banks. In the same market, some are trading BTC, some are chasing QNT, some are scooping up Meme, some are laying in wait for RWA, and some are doing nothing at all. So who is right? Actually, many times, there is no right or wrong, only what suits oneself. Some are good at chasing hot topics, quick with information, execution, and stop-loss, so they are suited for Alpha. Some don’t like watching the market every day and are better at studying long-term trends, so BTC, infrastructure, or long-term allocation might suit them better. Others feel uneasy seeing QNT rise several times in a week, thinking they missed out again. But the problem is: If you didn’t understand it at $70, and only rushed in at $270 because others made money, this might never have been an opportunity for you. New stories appear in the market every day. Today it’s QNT, yesterday it might have been ZEC, NEAR, and tomorrow there will be new hot topics. The real danger is not missing out, but doubting your own system after seeing others profit, then constantly switching tracks. Other people’s ways of profiting may not be replicable as your own. There is no standard answer in tradingI don't immediately think I'm doing the right thing just because a trade is profitable. A profitable trade can also be a poor execution. Conversely, a losing trade can also be a qualified trade—as long as I strictly follow the original plan. This shift in thinking made me re-examine every trade. What I cared ❌ about most before: "How much did I make this trade?" Now I prefer to ask myself: ✅ "Did I follow the plan?" Profit and loss record the final result, but the execution process truly tells me what to improve next. Winning or losing a trade is just the result; long-term progress depends on the process. #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #TradingPsychology #交易 #交易心理 #比特币Evening Focus 1. **⚠️ New developments in US-Iran situation**: Reuters / Xinhua report that the US and Iran are expected to hold **indirect talks** mediated by Qatar on the 28th or 29th, discussing the "7-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz." This does not contradict Iran's "no direct talks in New York plan" — these are indirect, not direct talks. The early market judgment of "no short-term hope" needs to be revised to "indirect talks ongoing but with huge differences." 2. **Saudi pipeline has resumed to 3.5 million barrels/day** (Bloomberg 9/28 21:57), overseas exports restarted. This is a status update found by the correction point 15 for the first time — early market still wrote "partial restart." 3. **Oil prices surged intraday then retreated**: Saudi pipeline recovery + profit-taking on gains, but geopolitical dual-channel risks support oil prices. 4. **BTC fell below $84,000**: $82,600-83,200 (-1.5%~-2.7%), next support at $82,000. 5. **US stocks opened lower**: Dow -0.48%, Nasdaq -0.62%, Nvidia up nearly 2% (buyback), Microsoft down 2.32%. 6. **Bowman's speech still not released**, will continue to track early tomorrow. 7. **The decisive event this week is August PCE at 20:30 on the day after tomorrow (9/30)."🟠 BTC and ETH long-term options are worth watching 🔴 Risk Observation After the BTC and ETH options expiring on September 24, 2027, were launched, LEAPS Calls indeed provide a longer time window, but this should not be simply equated with "the bull market being established." Although long-term options have relatively slow time decay, risks such as premium loss, changes in implied volatility, and incorrect directional judgment still exist. 🟡 Key Observation If we are indeed in a correction phase after an uptrend, the advantage of long-term instruments is that you don't need to precisely time short-term entry points. The focus should be on strike price, premium, implied volatility, and breakeven price, rather than just "long expiration time." 🟢 Strategy Opportunities If the market enters a trending up phase later, positions can be gradually adjusted based on actual volatility; during consolidation phases, covered short Calls and other methods can be studied to reduce holding costs, but this will also limit some upside gains. The core remains position sizing and risk exposure control. 📌 **Key Point:** Long-term options solve the "time problem" but cannot solve the "direction problem." If BTC and ETH continue to maintain a large-scale trend, LEAPS indeed provide greater tolerance time, but do not ignore premiums and maximum losses just because of the long duration. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 🎯 Initial principal: 7U 🏆 Goal: 10 million U 💰 Current funds: 3700U 💸 Living costs: 2600U 📌 Available funds now: 1100U+ Didn't expect Mid-Autumn Festival expenses to be so high, various costs added up to 600U. This is my "hard-earned principal," and I feel like I haven't done anything but my funds have dropped significantly. Now, the actual funds I can mobilize are only about 1100U left, and with National Day approaching, the pressure just surged... Maybe this is what they call the survival cost line. Every step is tough before truly breaking through this line. 📌 Current positions and observation directions: 1️⃣ Spot holdings now only $BNB; 2️⃣ Continuing to hold $BTC long positions, currently focusing on the key area around 82,500 to see if this zone can hold; 3️⃣ Continuously monitoring $ONDO and $ENA, waiting for future opportunities; 4️⃣ $PONS fundamentals have been weak recently, with income in the past 24 hours only about $180,000 and still declining. Will keep observing and consider when fundamentals improve; 5️⃣ As for Meme coins... basically "full position sentiment" now 😂 No new ambush opportunities currently, but the few previously invested are already hurting me, so I can only endure silently. 🔥 Current overall strategy: content + contracts + Meme strategy still uses a barbell layout: one end configuredFavorite stock is still Apple, really steady. It really falls less, and also rises less, but the advantage is stability. The Nasdaq 100 ETF is pretty much the same principle. Although it rises less, overall it keeps going up, which is a good thing, so you dare to buy the dip when it falls. There are more things this week than on the weekend. Today NVIDIA also released good news, continuing to repurchase stocks at the hundred-billion-dollar level! Directly creating the largest single-day gain since 9.2! Still has money to be willful. I saw a few companies in the A-share market also repurchased stocks tonight, on the scale of hundreds of millions. According to the current calendar, on Wednesday we look at PCE and GDP, on Thursday at 4:30 AM we watch Micron's earnings call, Micron still seems promising, hoping it can save the market again! On Friday night we watch the non-farm payrolls. $NVDA The market is completely schizophrenic. Bullish and bearish forces clashing head-on, giving a headache. $BTC current price around 84000. ETF has pumped 3 billion USD in seven days, like a spring mattress underneath. But US bond yields keep soaring, liquidity is being strangled. Translation: Someone is supporting the bottom, but no one is pushing it up. Tends to be oscillating with a bullish bias, but don’t expect a one-sided surge; chasing highs is easy to get stuck on the flagpole. $ETH currentBTC retraced to 82550 in the afternoon before stopping the decline and rebounding, ETH dipped to 2634, currently rebounding close to 2700. The technical pattern of the market was originally weak, but thanks to multiple institutions increasing their holdings of BTC and ETH, the market has seen a short-term recovery and warming. However, the current price has reached a resistance zone, combined with the Nasdaq's weak performance and a slight rebound in the US dollar, a pullback is likely to occur next. Trading strategy: BTC: Enter short positions around the current price of 83750, add to shorts at 84450, target 82600 ETH: Enter short positions around 2697, add to shorts at 2725, target 2645 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Something I’ve changed recently: I don’t celebrate a trade just because it’s green. A profitable trade can still be badly executed. And a losing trade can still be a good trade if I followed my plan. That mindset completely changed how I review my decisions. Instead of asking: “Did I make money?” I ask: “Did I execute what I planned?” The P&L tells me the result. The process tells me what I need to improve. #Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin #TradingPsychologyZEC and LAB played two opposing dramas on the same night. On 9/25, I wrote about LAB's spring: it wasn’t pulling in new money, but a short squeeze stampede. Tonight, ZEC did the opposite: from 1,511 on 9/26, it pulled back to 1,591, rising 5.3%, with positions simultaneously increasing by about 2.7%, volume at 8 PM exploding to four to five times the usual, and the basis turning positive. Price, positions, volume, and basis all aligned—this time it’s new money entering, not a stampede. Even more interesting is the fee rate. The price rose, but the fee rate was negative: -0.00479%, meaning shorts pay longs every 8 hours. During this recent 7-day rebound, the fee rate has stayed below zero for a long time. To translate: the price is rising, but a significant group doesn’t believe it, opening shorts against the trend and paying fees to hold on. The long-short ratio is 0.55, with 60% of accounts on the short side. What about LAB? 80% longs, ratio 8.0. On the same night, those on the wrong side just switched sides: LAB’s longs are paying fees to hold and wait for a breakout, while ZEC’s shorts are paying fees to hold and wait for a pullback. Two markets, the seat fees are being paid by different players. Prices can lie, positions can lie, but the real money paid by shorts cannot. These shorts’ stop-loss orders are stacked between 1,656 and 1,695; the longer the negative fee rate persists, the more fuel is added. But tonight I’m not rushing to bet: the 15-minute KDJ is already just above 80, overheated in the short term, chasing highs could pull back to 1,580 anytime. Only if it holds above 1,580 with volume will 1,656 come into play Overseas Trading KOLs Are Watching CORE’s Unlock Schedule — Could It Add Selling Pressure? Several on-chain data analysts on X have recently highlighted the $CORE token unlock schedule, making it a hot topic among traders. According to some overseas market commentators, the continued phased release of tokens allocated to early investors and the team could create a persistent source of selling pressure. Even if the BTC-Fi narrative gains traction, large unlock events may increase the amount of toDon't rush to chase; the whales' leverage hasn't been fully cleared yet. Brothers, let's keep the pace steady. For the short term, I lean towards another pullback. The main reason isn't bearishness but that the market's long leverage is still heavy. To continue pushing up, crowded positions often need to be cleared first. $ETH: 2630 is a key short-term level. Around 2614–2632, many whale long positions are concentrated, and the 2613 area is also a dense liquidation zone. Pay close attention to 2622 and 2614 below; if these break effectively, around 2550 may become the next test area. However, futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 contracts in recent days, and leverage levels have fallen to a phase low, which looks more like active deleveraging rather than necessarily signaling a trend reversal. Wait for liquidation pressure to ease and price to firmly hold above 2630 before considering adding longs for more safety. $ZEC: Around 1550 is important support; if lost, watch 1500; resistance above is at 1600 and 1685. The trend is not completely broken yet, but volatility has clearly increased, making chasing gains at the current level risky. $SNDK: 1740 is short-term support, with 1680 as stronger support; watch 1815 and 1900 above. The long-term demand logic for AI server NAND remains, but after continuous rises, valuation pressure has increased. Waiting for a pullback confirmation might be safer than chasing highs directly. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #ThisWeekBringsNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #BTCSpotETFWeeklyInflowHitsNearOneYearHigh #TradingVoice: YourExperienceDeservesToBeHeard Macro Background: PCE Revision May Be a Hidden Positive Geopolitics is today's biggest suppressor: Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions, causing Brent crude oil to surge. QCP analysis points out that this is broad deleveraging rather than a risk-off rotation—gold, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq all fell simultaneously. But there is an overlooked potential positive: Fundstrat's Tom Lee noted that on September 30, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release a new method for calculating PCE, and the methodological adjustment alone could lower the annual core PCE reading by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points (from 3.4% down to about 3.0%). If true, this would indicate that the Fed's previous rate hikes may have been premature, which is positive for the crypto market. This week's macro schedule is packed: Tuesday JOLTS, Wednesday Consumer Confidence, Thursday PCE Inflation, Friday Nonfarm Payrolls—each data point could reshape rate expectations. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Super Data Week rate hike has been in effect for two weeks, and the market is waiting for the PCE and Nonfarm payroll verdict The rate hike on September 16 saw BTC rise only 0.5% — it’s not that the good news is exhausted, but the expectations were already fully priced in. What really decides whether there will be a rate hike in October is this week. First, let's look at the current situation. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.18%, a high since 2007; the real yield after inflation is 2.85%, close to the 2018 high. This figure is the least favored by risk assets: the higher the risk-free real return, the less reason for funds to take risks. The term spread has also widened to 0.36, with the long end rising faster than the short end, indicating the market is pricing in "higher for longer." There are two key data points this week, both timed very tightly. Wednesday (9/30) at 8:30 PM, August PCE. The market expects overall 3.7%, core 3.3%, unchanged from last month — this is the 55th consecutive month above the 2% target. PCE is the Fed’s most watched inflation gauge; if this number exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting (currently around 65%) will be pushed higher. Friday (10/2) at 8:30 PM, September Nonfarm payroll. Expected new jobs: 100,000, previous 162,000; unemployment rate expected at 4.2%. Employment is cooling but not collapsing — this is the most uncomfortable combination: inflation won’t come down, employment hasn’t crashed, and the Fed has no reason to turn dovish. What does this mean for BTC? Two points. First, with a real yield of 2.85% standing there, bulls face headwinds every day, so chasing highs requires caution. Second, the real driver of price moves is always the expectation gap, not the data itself. If PCE meets expectations and Nonfarm meets expectations — then this week will just be a formality; only one side exceeding expectations will cause a re-pricing of the October rate hike probability, and BTC will truly move. For this week’s trading, avoid heavy bets on direction in the 30 minutes before the data release; wait for the shoe to drop before following. Buy when prompted to buy, sell when prompted to sell, and let the data speak first. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Today, the main reason for Ethereum's decline is the high US Treasury yields, with the market expecting over a 64% chance of a rate hike in October, compounded by geopolitical impacts. However, spot ETF funds continue to flow in, exchange-held chips are decreasing, and long-term buying interest remains. Focus can be placed on this week's non-farm payroll and PCE inflation data. If employment starts to weaken and inflation data cools down, the market may lower rate hike expectations again, which could relieve pressure on risk assets. Given the current weak downward trend, blind bottom-fishing is not recommended; it's best to wait for stabilization signals. #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $BTC $ETH $ZEC If ETH breaks through 2696.32, it can bring everything else up, so ETH needs to be at 2792 to have a shorting advantage.If the Democrats win the midterm elections, Trump's family's crypto business might be the first to be investigated. Reuters said the investigation could start as early as February next year, and Little Donald's 1789 Capital has already been named. I guess many people's first reaction is: what does this have to do with the coin price? Honestly, not much. This is just the usual Washington back-and-forth; whoever takes office will investigate the other side, which has nothing to do with our market. But to be fair, with more news like this, the market's fatigue over "crypto being targeted politically" will gradually build up. It's not bad news, nor is it good news, just another layer of noise. What do you think, does anyone still take this kind of news seriously now? #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 $ZEC
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