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The core of this content is not simply "bearish on ZEC," but rather waiting to see if ZEC experiences a momentum exhaustion at a key resistance level.
🟣 ZEC
The author focuses on $1,695–$1,700:
* If the price breaks through with volume and holds above $1,700 → it indicates bulls still have strength, and the author will reassess short positions.
* If multiple attempts to break $1,695–$1,700 fail → the author believes profit-taking and a quick pullback may occur.
* Because ZEC previously rose very quickly, the author worries that if the trend reverses, the decline could also be rapid.
There is an important distinction here: "multiple failures to break $1,700" does not necessarily mean a decline. It only indicates significant selling pressure at this level, requiring further observation of volume and price structure.
🟢 NEAR
The author mentions:
* Currently around $5.47
* Intraday increase of about 8.55%
* High around $5.495
* Key level to watch is $5.50
His logic is: NEAR has risen from about $1.5 to over $5, so although the trend is strong, he believes the risk of chasing the rally has increased.
🟠 WLD
The author is watching:
* Currently around $0.541
* Intraday high around $0.552
* Near previous highs
The author is concerned about a sudden market overheating followed by a significant large bearish candle.
🔵 ETH
This is the highest risk here. $BTC spot ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days up to September 25, totaling about 2.98 billion USD, with 2.39 billion USD this week setting a new single-week high since 2026. However, the inflow scale shrank from 999 million on the 21st to 134 million on the 25th, dropping by over 80% in four days.
On the price side, $BTC fell from 87,000 to around 84,000. The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.23%, the highest since 2007. The ETF inflow shrinkage basically synchronizes with the rise in Treasury yields; the higher the risk-free return, the more hesitant institutions become to buy.
But one detail is worth pondering: the main outflow of funds is from exchanges. From the 22nd to the 24th, over 2.5 billion USD worth of $BTC was transferred out from platforms like Binance and Coinbase, while ETFs continued to attract capital. CryptoQuant analysts say this looks more like holders moving coins from exchanges to cold wallets, which actually reduces short-term selling pressure.
The current contradiction is: ETF inflows continue but with decreasing strength, long-term interest rates are suppressing valuations, and exchange inventories are moving out. At the 84,000 level, selling pressure is indeed easing, but buying power is not strong enough to push prices up against the 5% Treasury yield. This divergence won't last forever; either interest rates ease and ETFs accelerate inflows, or buying power exhausts and prices correct downward.
To be honest, my short position is still stuck. The current market looks like it’s grinding, but I really don’t know if it will grind up or down. It’s frustrating. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Boss Shi cleared all short positions with one click, and many friends fell silent instantly.
The silence is not because someone admitted defeat, but because no one dared to respond. The same action can be interpreted in two ways: he might be preparing to go long, or simply doesn't want to be squeezed anymore.
So I only look at the price reaction after the action, not the action itself.
Before two hard conditions are met, any "bullish quick rebound" is premature celebration:
First, the weekly chart must hold above the 50-week moving average; second, the price must hold the 78,000–82,000 major holder cost zone. If the second is broken, the cost zone immediately becomes a trapped zone.
The key levels are set here:
$BTC support at 85,000 / 82,000–82,500, resistance at 86,000–86,600 / 88,000
$ETH support at 2,700 / 2,630–2,660, resistance at 2,750–2,800 / 3,000
$SOL support at 115–116 / 110–113, resistance at 120 / 123–126
My rule is to only buy at support levels and never act before resistance levels. Now all three coins are stuck in the middle zone, looking lively but actually with no good positions. If my hands itch, I just tie them up.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 WLD's bullish candle today is different from the one on 09-18.
On 09-18, it rose from 0.376 to 0.447, then oscillated between 0.42-0.46 for four days without follow-through.
This time: from 09-22, it consolidated with low volume between 0.44-0.46 for four consecutive days; on 09-26 at 16:00, the 4H volume surged from 60M to 234M, a 4x increase, with price rising from 0.485 to 0.519, intraday peak +14%, current price 0.517.
The key is not the gain, but the volume position. The previous 8-day high of 0.477 was held down at 18:00 on 09-26 and did not fall back. The difference between a real breakout and a fake breakout lies here. $WLD
For market discussion only, not investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Global bond yields collectively hit multi-year highs this week, with Japan's 10-year government bond surging to 3.08%, the highest since 1996 — while the Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25% this month.
Yields continue to soar after the rate hike, indicating the market is doing what the central bank dared not do. Bond market pricing has never been about today, but rather "how much more tightening is coming." The 10-year yield far exceeds the policy rate, meaning investors are saying: your rate hikes are far from enough.
This is the most critical variable for risk assets. The risk-free rate anchors global valuations; when the anchor is raised, long-duration assets like stocks and crypto must be repriced lower. Japanese bonds are especially crucial — they form the foundation of global carry trades. When yen rates rise, funds that have borrowed yen to invest worldwide over the past decade must consider repaying.
Liquidity withdrawal always sounds the first alarm in the bond market.Many people equate "big gains" directly with "can't chase," resulting in missing the main rally phase of strong coins; others treat "big gains" as "still can chase," ending up buying at the emotional peak. The difference lies not in the magnitude of the rise, but in relative strength and structural position.
Looking horizontally within the same sector, $WLD 24h +18.37%, trading volume 86.8M, is clearly stronger than $JTO's +9.21% (trading volume only 6.8M) and $ENA's -2.84%. Among the three, only WLD simultaneously meets: MA5=0.551 crossing above and holding above MA20=0.532955, MACD histogram +0.002506 maintaining bullish momentum, RSI=77.1 although entering overbought territory, no bearish divergence detected; ENA has tangled moving averages and MACD turning bearish, JTO has a bullish structure but insufficient volume. Funding rate +0.0100% is higher than the other two, indicating concentrated bullish sentiment but not yet at an extreme short squeeze level; Fear and Greed Index at 70, in the greed zone, favor following the trend rather than counter-trend top fishing.
The direction is bullish, with a pullback near the upper Bollinger Band at 0.560 being a better entry reference, which is also close to MA5 support. Entry range is 0.558–0.568. Take profit 1 target is 0.598, corresponding to the previous high extension and the mid-range target of a 16.57% amplitude over 30 K-bars; Take profit 2 target is 0.625, corresponding to the expanded upper amplitude boundary.Still stubbornly shorting $ZEC? Take a good look at this chart first, don’t just feed fuel to the pumpers for nothing!
The daily chart shows a bulldozer-like rally, not even giving a decent deep pullback once, clearly not letting the shorts off the hook. The 4-hour chart keeps making higher highs and higher lows; this is not weakness, it’s literally stepping on the shorts’ corpses to push higher. Do you still dare to keep shorting? The pumpers are just waiting for your margin to fuel the rocket.
I’m holding shorts myself, and if I can’t get out next week, I’m ready to cut losses and exit. Don’t be stubborn, don’t fantasize, don’t fight the trend against the tide. Block those who blindly shout short, and better block your own overconfident self too.
In this kind of market, the more the shorts resist, the fiercer the rally. Always thinking you see through the market, but after entering, all that’s left is regret. Don’t be like me, only admitting you were wrong after liquidation.
Note: This is just a market insight, not any trading advice.The US military escorting oil tankers is something newcomers simply can't grasp.
Wright said it himself: 13 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day.
When I first entered the crypto space, I thought just watching the candlestick charts was enough to understand price movements.
Now the real question is: whether oil can pass through the strait depends on the warships.
What does this have to do with $BTC? At first, I didn’t get it either.
The data looks like this: 13 million barrels a day, accounting for the majority of global seaborne oil transport.
When oil prices shake, inflation rises, and interest rate cuts have to be postponed.
When rate cuts are delayed, the fresh liquidity for $BTC dries up.
I held long positions but got caught out by this kind of news.
Keep an eye on the 13 million figure; if it drops one day, that’s the real signal.
Wall Street dogs are only capable of this much.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普拒绝伊朗7天方案，霍尔木兹重开受阻 $BTC The crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has doubled in less than a month, returning to about 13 million barrels per day, close to the peak in July — the reason being that the US military has started escorting oil tankers during the day.
Behind the numbers is a reset of risk pricing. The strait is the most vulnerable choke point for global fossil energy; if it encounters problems, oil prices rise first, inflation expectations follow, and the central bank's room for rate cuts is squeezed. Now that the escort has restored the flow, it temporarily suppresses the risk hanging over this tail.
But the word "temporarily" is crucial. The flow can double, but it can also be halved again, depending on how long the escort lasts — and Trump has just rejected Iran's conditions, so the game is far from over.
Therefore, oil price volatility is very likely to remain high going forward. For the market, geopolitics is not a topic that can be turned off; it is just temporarily quiet.Master, I've been holding this short position for several days now.
Can I really achieve success like this?
Would it be good to have a flood of selling pressure tonight?
The $ETH short at 2640 is still open, now topping around 2715, and it's indeed starting to feel uncomfortable again.
The 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are turning upward again, indicating short-term strength, but the 2715–2720 range hasn't truly opened up space yet.
If it holds here, I'll continue to wait for 2680.
If 2680 breaks, then look down to 2650–2640; if it stabilizes above 2720, I'll keep managing risk on this short.
$SNDK is currently around 1780, after peaking at 1908 earlier, it has been consolidating sideways.
The short moving averages are all clustered near 1770; until it can reclaim 1800–1830, I won't be too optimistic about the rebound.
$W is actually very strong today, up over 20%, reaching a high of 0.01587.
Small coins are still accelerating, market sentiment hasn't truly cooled off, so I'm more willing to wait for direction confirmation on this ETH short rather than rushing to judge.
I've been holding this position for several days; next, I'll focus on 2720 and 2680. I'm already numb now, so I'll rest well and watch how tomorrow's trend unfolds.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The order book depth of NEAR is right there; a short position of several million dollars can smash the price down, but once a short squeeze happens, closing the position itself is a buying action, creating a self-reinforcing upward spiral. Naked shorting altcoins with large capital is no different from gambling with your life. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A more reasonable explanation is that they have already taken large amounts of NEAR and ZEC on the spot side, and the short positions are only used to hedge risk. This is completely consistent with Garrett Jin's operational logic. He holds 202,000 ZEC spot with a cost of $437 each, while shorting ZEC; the short position lost 36.13 million before closing, but the spot floating profit exceeded 240 million. The loss on the short position is just a small part of the spot profit being given back. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $AKE The most interesting thing now is not that it has dropped 80%, but that even after such a drop, some people still think it's time to bottom-fish.
Many long traders think: "It has fallen from 0.16 to 0.033, entering now means picking up cheap chips."
But I am doing the opposite; I have already gone short.
Last week, AKE was still a hot coin, flooding social media, rising several times in just a few days, reaching a high of $0.16, with the last surge even hitting a 183% amplitude.
Then it turned around directly, falling for 7 consecutive days, now down to around $0.033, a retracement of over 80% from the high.
Even more interestingly, the long-short data shows a clear divergence:
OKX retail long-short ratio is 2.41, Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2878, retail investors are clearly biased long.
But the large holders’ long-short ratio has dropped to 0.7692.
Retail investors think it has fallen too much and should rise, but large holders are clearly biased short.
After the first round of rally for this altcoin ends, it’s not easy to push it up again in the short term, so I choose to go against the crowd and short.
Of course, AKE is very volatile, and a sudden surge is not impossible, so short positions should not be heavily leveraged blindly.
Currently focusing on $0.03–$0.028.
Brothers, has anyone already gone short?
Let’s gather in the comments to see if more are bottom-fishing or shorting this time!
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Boss Ten's one-click liquidation, bull and bear debate in the group chat
Suddenly muted, not because he won, but because everyone is afraid of copying the wrong homework
I don't follow orders, I read expectations, the big boss closing shorts might switch to longs
Or maybe just doesn't want to be squeezed again, action is action, the answer? That's another story
Two signals: weekly chart above the 50-week moving average
Price stabilizes in the 78000-82000 large holder cost zone
Sounds tough, but don't shout "bullish rebound speed" just yet, shouting too early can lead to social death.
Key levels to copy:
BTC support at 85000, 82000-82500; resistance at 86000-86600, 88000.
ETH support at 2700, 2630-2660; resistance at 2750-2800, 3000.
SOL support at 115-116, 110-113; resistance at 120, 123-126.
I only buy at support, don't chase before resistance. Currently stuck in the middle
It's lively, but not a good time to act, itchy hands, tie them up.
A bear market isn't ended by one liquidation, it's confirmed by repeated pullbacks. Boss Ten runs fast, can you catch him accurately?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC spot ETF has seen nearly $3 billion net inflow over 7 consecutive days $BTC Overall movement this week followed this rhythm: initial surge — deep pullback — bottom consolidation — then recovery and rise
At the start of the week, the upward momentum continued, reaching a high near 87,000, attracting a large amount of long-buying capital;
then there was a rapid drop with a downward wick, wiping out short-term long positions with stop losses, bottoming around 82,800;
From the 24th to 26th, it entered a range-bound consolidation, oscillating repeatedly between 83,800 and 84,800, gradually wearing down retail traders' patience, many capitulated at the lows;
In the latter half of the week, the lows began to rise gradually, the upper boundary of the range was slowly broken, reclaiming 84,600, with previous resistance turning into support.
Recently, positive rumors/news such as Lightning Network payment integration and continued institutional interest in Bitcoin as a digital reserve asset have provided some market sentiment support. The real driver of this recovery is the gradual exhaustion of selling pressure within the consolidation range.
From the 1-hour to 4-hour structure perspective:
The pullback did not create a sustained lower low, indicating a shakeout during an uptrend rather than a top reversal; moving averages, after converging downward, have turned upward again, with higher lows and higher highs, restoring the bullish structure.
Key price levels to watch:
Strong support: 84,500–84,600, this is the converted support after this week's breakout; as long as this holds, the current upward logic remains unchanged
Strong resistance: 85,600; if volume increases and it holds above this level, there is a chance to retest the previous high near 87,000 Sideways trading is more exhausting than a waterfall drop.
ETH has once again taught the shorts a lesson.
Yesterday it surged then pulled back. I thought it would replicate the deep drop from the day before, but it didn’t crash. Instead, it seemed nailed near my short entry cost line. The candlesticks moved centimeter by centimeter, with volatility slower than a snail. Traders watching the chart were about to go crazy, but accounts remained unchanged. It felt like the market only favored the bulls, while liquidations always targeted the shorts first.
What’s more frustrating is the rhythm: when I thought it couldn’t rise anymore, it pulled up; when I finally couldn’t resist chasing longs, it immediately cooled off, retraced to shake me out, then continued upward. Every time it felt like I was being precisely targeted.
But thinking calmly, the market never targets anyone. It just follows its own path. I mistook “should fall” for “will definitely fall,” mistook sideways trading for accumulation, and impatience for opportunity.
ETH is still ETH; what’s frustrating are the positions and expectations. When you don’t understand, trade less; when you want to chase, wait for confirmation first; when you’re wrong, accept the stop loss. The market owes no one a bite of meat, and the voice of trading is not complaints but remembering this pain so you don’t get fooled by the same rhythm a second time.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 My crypto trading partner is gone, and this hurts ten thousand times more than a breakup
When I heard the news of your departure, I stared at the K-line chart in a daze for a long time. Losing my crypto trading partner hurts as much as going through a deeply unforgettable love.
Thinking back to last year, we traded in and out of BTC together. When we made profits, we stayed up late on voice chat, drinking cheap beer and bragging about buying cars and houses; when we lost, we encouraged each other, saying "As long as we don't leave the table, there's always a chance to turn things around." During those nights of wild price swings, we were each other's strongest psychological support.
Now, BTC is still fluctuating around 84,000, but the person in my chat list who could always say "bull market is coming back fast" will never light up again. No one shouts "buy the dip" when it crashes, no one stays with me to endure the insults when holding positions.
Brother, there’s no liquidation or major manipulation over there, just rest well. This has made me fully realize: contracts can be liquidated, but life cannot be restarted. To all friends in the crypto circle, cherish your health and those around you. No matter how big the market is, it’s no bigger than life and death.
Farewell, my partner. May there be hundredfold coins in heaven too. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 A long sideways movement must eventually fall.
I really got badly trapped by these four words!!!
$SNDK is already at 1774. I have been holding a short position from 1538 all the way until now. Last night when it dropped to 1743, I thought I finally had a chance to break even, but today it was directly pulled back to 1774. This market seems to be staring at my margin without letting go.
$KMNO is even more extreme. It surged 18% in one day, rushing from around 0.02 all the way to 0.05. The daily candlestick is a big bullish candle drawn straight up, hardly giving shorts any breathing room. With this kind of movement, going short is like hitting a hard ceiling, and my short position stubbornly remains.
Looking at $ZEC, around 1535. The short position opened at 822, it surged up to 1680 at the highest point midway. Although it has fallen back quite a bit now, it’s still far from the cost price. This is not a drop at all; it’s more like giving me a little hope, then pushing me back into the water.
Three short positions, three mountains. All are stubbornly holding against the trend.
I used to think that after a long sideways period, a drop was inevitable. Looking back now, the so-called “bulls are out of strength” and “spring compressed to the limit” were all just my own script.
But it wasn’t a spring, it was a launch pad.
Now all three positions in my account are floating losses, just looking at them gives me a headache. Closing them is really hard to bear. Holding on is scary too, fearing another round of market moves.
In the end, this situation is because I underestimated the risk. The market won’t follow the script, and holding positions won’t automatically turn into a win. Many people's portfolio lists include a line that says, "$SOL will be sold at such and such a price." Once the target price is set, they feel at ease, as if they've installed a brake on this market phase. But reality is often more absurd than the script. The Solana ecosystem has gone through the aftermath of FTX, network outage doubts, and now an ecological boom over the past few years. The price is no longer something that can be confined to a single number. Using old information to cap the future is essentially applying static thinking to a dynamic market.
When $SOL actually hits that preset price, the information you have is already vastly different. If the market experiences volatility, you might be lucky to wait for a pullback, but you could end up missing liquidity; if hot money floods into the ecosystem, you greedily move your target upward and end up on a roller coaster. This kind of "fixed number" makes traders focus only on the numbers, while the market becomes just a backdrop, and actions easily become distorted.
Instead of setting a fixed price, it's better to set conditions. Observe real on-chain signals: whether TVL continues to flow in, whether the meme sector's heat is cooling off, and how network stability is. When people around you who don't usually touch crypto start asking "Can SOL still be bought?" or when volume accelerates with divergence, that's the time to reassess. From the beginning of the year until now, many people's target prices have been easily broken through and then recovered. The numbers no longer matter; trends and signals are the core. The market never stops for anyone's obsession; going with the flow is the cure.What stablecoin regulation truly changes may be the list of buyers of U.S. short-term Treasury bills.
The new rules require stablecoins to be fully backed by highly liquid assets such as short-term Treasuries. The larger the issuance scale, the more the issuer needs to continuously purchase short-term debt. In the future, for every additional dollar a user deposits in stablecoins, there may be roughly one more dollar of Treasury demand behind it. Payment products, crypto markets, and government financing are thus connected through the same pipeline.
This matter is somewhat subtle. Stablecoins help merchants reduce cross-border settlement costs, but they may also draw funds away from bank deposits; issuers earn interest on reserves, while users typically only receive a digital dollar that can circulate. After the rules are implemented, the market will be safer, but disputes over interest ownership will certainly intensify. If stablecoins become the foundation of global payments, the biggest business may not be in fees but in that ever-growing pool of reserve assets.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 The Big Three of Meme: $DOGE, $PEPE, $TRUMP — Which Will Double First?
In the Meme sector, which of these three can double first?
I'm betting on Trump, not sure if he'll deliver!
DOGE 0.097. Huge market cap, doubling requires massive capital inflow, unless Musk pulls a big move, it will be the slowest.
PEPE 0.000004394. Best elasticity! After dipping to 0.000004218, it rebounded the strongest, RSI6 reached 62.9, firmly above MA5/10, approaching MA20. High capital preference; if the market stabilizes, it’s the easiest to skyrocket.
TRUMP 2.119. Narrative-driven, extremely volatile. Just dipped to 2.068 then barely held above MA20. Influenced by news, it has explosive potential but chasing highs carries huge risk.
Conclusion: In terms of potential to double early, PEPE > TRUMP > DOGE. PEPE has the strongest technical recovery and moderate market cap, best elasticity; TRUMP has high odds but high risk; DOGE suits steady defense. Manage your position size and take profits in batches!
$DOGE $PEPE $TRUMPThe most noteworthy aspect of BTC right now is not whether it will rise or fall, but rather the "high-level consolidation and accumulation."
This round of the market quickly rebounded from around $75,000 to about $87,000, completing a very clear price correction. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF absorbed approximately $2.39 billion in funds during the week of September 21 to 25, indicating a clear recovery in institutional capital demand.
On the other hand, daily ETF inflows gradually declined from about $999 million on September 21 to around $134 million on September 25. BTC did not break through $87,000 directly despite the massive capital inflow but instead consolidated repeatedly around $84,000.
Therefore, the current market shows a very typical state:
Funds are coming in, but the price is not continuing to surge rapidly.
This indicates the market is digesting the supply above.
So, if I had to choose one trend, my definition of BTC at present is only one:
High-level consolidation and accumulation.
What will truly determine the direction going forward is whether the $87,000–$87,500 range can be effectively broken through, and whether the $81,000–$82,000 range can continue to serve as a support area below.
Until these two key zones are effectively broken or breached, BTC deserves more attention on the changes in capital and holdings during the consolidation process, rather than being driven by the sentiment of one or two short-term candlesticks.Boss Ten's one-click liquidation, bull and bear debate in the group
Suddenly muted, not because he won, but everyone is afraid of copying the wrong homework
I don't follow orders, I read expectations, the big boss closes shorts, might switch to longs
Or maybe just doesn't want to be squeezed again, action is action, answer? That's another story
Two signals: weekly chart above the 50-week moving average
Price stabilizes in the 78000-82000 big player cost zone
Sounds tough, but don't shout "bullish rebound speed" yet, shouting too early can lead to social death.
Copy the levels:
BTC support at 85000, 82000-82500, resistance at 86000-86600, 88000.
ETH support at 2700, 2630-2660, resistance at 2750-2800, 3000.
SOL support at 115-116, 110-113, resistance at 120, 123-126.
I only buy at support, don't chase before resistance. Now stuck in the middle
Lively, but not easy to act, itchy hands, tie them up.
A bear market isn't ended by one liquidation, it's confirmed by repeated pullbacks, Boss Ten runs fast, can you catch it accurately?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC spot ETF net inflow nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies #Earnings watcher: Micron earnings approaching, AI storage demand in focusFirst, a cold splash of water: that feeling of "something is destined" you have is called FOMO, not a signal.
ETH breaking through 2700 is correct, but there is a supply barrier of over 10 million ETH in the 2700-2800 range, which is a tough bone for whales to chew. The fear and greed index has reached 70, in the greed zone.
The simultaneous rise of BTC and ETH is indeed a market resonance recovery signal, and ETF funds are continuously flowing in. But ETH's current RSI short-term momentum is weakening, long positions are crowded (72.7% of retail investors are long), chasing in is easy to catch the bag.
As for ZEC—your small capital can't hold it, that sentence is the answer itself. This asset surged 2800% in half a year, but analysts warn it may retrace to $200; whales hold 200,000 coins and could dump anytime. The futures-to-spot ratio is 9:1, whales' short positions just got liquidated for 36.13 million, rushing in now is just fueling the next round of liquidations.
What you should do today is not pick coins, but turn off your trading software and wait for BTC to stabilize above 85000 before talking. If you're itchy, start with 10% position to practice, don't go All in. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 Don't rush to bottom-fish! The most dangerous signal for BTC is not a crash, but "no one is playing anymore."
After BTC's crash, it entered an extreme low volume phase: 24h contract turnover dropped 53.96%, spot dropped 58.10%, BTC contract volume dropped 66.77%. Liquidity is exhausted, so a small amount of funds can cause sharp spikes up and down, making chasing orders prone to losses on both ends.
Large holders' long-short ratio is 1.9344, still heavily biased long but slightly down from yesterday's 1.95; retail investors at 1.27-1.28 also lean long. Crowded longs, sideways without rising easily leads to long liquidation.
Resistance above: 84860-85000. Support below: 83510, 82800.
Strategy: Do not chase in the middle, wait for volume to pick up and stabilize above 85000 before leaning long; if it breaks below 82800 and rebounds weakly, lean short. Use low leverage and wait for direction.
In a no-volume phase, staying alive is more important than making money.
This does not constitute investment advice. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $SUI continues to take off🛫
As the leading new public chain, my advice has always been to hold long-term, and so far this strategy has no issues.
In the short term, focus on market hotspots; in the mid to long term, look at the project's fundamentals and the sustainability of the market trend.
Actually, to judge whether an altcoin is suitable for long-term holding, you don't need to analyze the fundamentals too deeply at first; start by observing the sustainability of its market trend.
Many altcoins in the market are on the top gainers list one day and the top losers list the next—purely pump-and-dump schemes by manipulative traders trying to take profits wherever possible, like ZKC, ZKP, TUT, SAGA.
Those truly suitable for mid to long-term holding are usually projects with real narratives, ecosystems, and sustained capital interest, such as blockchain infrastructure and new public chains.
Choosing wisely is really important when dealing with altcoins now.
If both the project team and the manipulators have abandoned the project, and you still foolishly hold long-term, then you're just wasting another cycle in vain. But then I looked at the positioning and thought: Wait… are you all secretly shorting too? On-chain and derivatives positioning can change quickly, so I’m not treating one long/short ratio as proof that the crowd is right or wrong. What I care about is what price does next. And $ZEC has been absolutely wild. It recently jumped from around $1,564 to $1,648 in just four hours, while short liquidations have repeatedly appeared during these upside bursts. That tells me one thing: 🔥 This market is sGreed Index 72, I analyzed 3 years of data: it's just an emotional thermometer
Today the Greed Index is 72, and some are already calling the top. I don't trust this "feeling," so I ran through the data.
How it was measured: Daily Fear and Greed Index data (alternative.me, publicly available) + OKX BTC spot daily data, from September 2023 to now, 1099 days. An index ≥70 counts as a "Greed Day," totaling 328 times. For each, I calculated BTC's price change over the following 7 days.
Results first: It's a 50/50 split, basically a coin toss.
- Greed Days (≥70): 328 times, 7-day win rate 50.3%, median +0.01% — basically no gain
- Extreme Greed (≥75): 120 times, win rate 51.7%, median +0.09%
- Buying any random day and holding 7 days (baseline): win rate 54.8%, median +0.51% — Greed Days underperform baseline
- Extreme Fear (≤25): 211 times, win rate 49.8%, median -0.09% — bottom fishing didn’t pay off
In plain terms: An index of 72 tells you "everyone is excited now," not "it will drop tomorrow." Using it as a signal to top out or bottom fish is a coin toss based on 3 years of testing. Emotional indicators measure the present, not the future.
Three honest points: ① The index is a composite of emotions and is inherently lagging; ② The sample covers this 3-year bull and bear cycle, conclusions may change with different periods; ③ Fees and slippage were not accounted for.
If you want to see what else I analyzed, comment below.
#BTCIt's better not to open a position in contracts, but I have already bought spot and am completely calm. This week, the price surged from 87,399 but has not been able to firmly hold above 85,500; there is obvious selling pressure above, with many taking profits. Also, the current price is not far from 83,515. If this level is effectively broken downward, the sideways structure may weaken, and the next step could be to test around 82,000 or even 80,000. However, from a larger timeframe perspective, the logic is different. BTC rose steadily from 74,955 to 87,399, and the overall uptrend has not been completely broken by this correction. So, short-term bearish, but long-term bullish! #BTC spot ETF has had nearly $3 billion net inflow for 7 consecutive days BTC has pulled back from last week's near $87K high and has recently been oscillating repeatedly in the $84K–$85K range. The US spot BTC ETF has attracted about $2.8B over 6 consecutive trading days, indicating that institutional demand remains strong. However, macro pressure is intensifying: the US 10-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.22%, a new high since 2007, continuously suppressing the rebound space for risk assets. 🔹 Above $83.2K: the structure remains slightly oscillating but strong; after reclaiming $85.5K, attention can be paid to $87K–$88K 🔻 Breaking below $83.2K: short-term may further retest $81.5K–$82K The current market focus has shifted from "whether the ETF has buying power" to "whether the high yield can cool down." ETF capital flows still provide support, but US Treasury yields may continue to determine BTC's next phase rhythm. #BTCETF7DayInflows3B #USTYieldsPressure #MicronEarningsAhead #BTC #BitcoinTook a quick look at crypto stocks before dinner—$xCOIN is hovering around 197–198 in Europe and the US, after last night's earnings report caused that bearish candle, it surprisingly started to slowly climb back over the weekend.
On OKX 1-hour chart, the price dropped from just over 200 to about 192.7 around the earnings release; both EPS and revenue missed expectations; now the current price is about 197.6, with a 24-hour range roughly 195–198, already back above several moving averages. Nearby, $xMSTR is fluctuating just above 160.
The spot market is also active: Bitcoin ETFs recorded the largest net inflow this year last week, but marginal buying dropped from nearly 1 billion on Monday to just over 100 million on Friday; $BTC hovered near the daily high around 84,900 over the weekend, $ETH just above 2,700. Stocks are digesting the miss, while spot still wants to push higher.
Before Monday's open, watch two things: whether Coinbase can hold 196–198, and whether BTC can hold 85,000. The earnings report impact is still lingering, so don't rush to chase.
$xCOIN $BTC $ETH #Coinbase #USStocks #Earnings #XCOIN #BTC #ETH #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and decisions require independent judgment. 🛢️ Oil out of the Strait of Hormuz just doubled in under a month, to about 13 million barrels a day
Most people are watching Trump reject Iran's ceasefire offer
I'm watching the barrels 👀 $BTC
Tankers are moving again, guided by the US military in broad daylight, and flows are back to July's brief peak
Meanwhile WTI fell about 8% this week to $92.41, Brent dropped more than 2% on Friday
$ETH Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. Before going to bed last night, I checked $APT; the market hadn't fully started yet, but I saw APT funds quietly entering, some buyers at the bottom, and the sell orders weren't that fierce. At that time, I suggested going long with a light position, don't wait until it rallies to regret it.
This morning when I opened the market, it felt good, brothers, from 0.8152 to 0.8583, +264.13%, this profit really feels great. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet.
I took profits on the majority, locking in 75%, and kept 25% at cost price as protection. If it continues to rise, let the profits run; if it falls back, don't let the gains become painful. Don't let profits inflate, don't despair over pullbacks.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next move, wait for a new structure to emerge before deciding. 💰
$ADA $LAB The beast is back around $1,650–$1,660, after recently pushing toward $1,700. And that's exactly where I'm watching now. The big question isn't simply: “How much has ZEC already pumped?” It's: Can it finally break and hold above $1,700? ZEC has already gone through an insane repricing, and the recent volatility has shown how dangerous it is to fight momentum with oversized leverage. So yes, my short position is open. But this time I'm watching the chart—not adding recklessly. 🟣 $ZEC 📍 Current Release version:
SOON today pulled 32% in one 4-hour candle, from 0.20 to 0.2788, with $16M traded in 24h. The key is not the increase, but the funding rate at only 0.025%, almost flat — this wave doesn't look like a leveraged long push, more like real spot money buying in.
Narratively, SOON is building Solana SVM cross-chain, packaging Solana's high-performance virtual machine into a modular rollup connected to Ethereum, promoting "Solana performance + ETH liquidity," perfectly hitting the rotation of Solana ecosystem expansion.
I'm not chasing highs, just watching the 0.23 4H volume line: holding it means a real breakout; breaking it means a fake breakout. Plan your position and stop loss first, don't get carried away by a single bullish candle. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Comparing CORE to DOGE and calculating a target price of ¥48.25 looks like neat arithmetic but is actually a trap for novices.
The argument sounds tempting: DOGE has a large total supply with continuous issuance, while CORE has a fixed cap of 2.1 billion, plus staking lock-ups and chip deflation, so a small amount of capital can drive it up. But the flaw can be exposed in one sentence—the coin price cannot be calculated simply by dividing by total supply.
DOGE has gone through several bull and bear cycles; its community activity and off-exchange capital consensus have been validated by real market money. It's true that CORE has a capped total supply, but the unlocking period lasts up to 81 years. Staking only temporarily locks circulation; tokens are not destroyed, so selling pressure doesn't disappear but is postponed. The so-called deflation is just narrative packaging; a massive amount of future chips always hangs overhead.
More importantly is the ecosystem. DOGE rides on hype and sentiment-driven speculation, at least with visible community enthusiasm. CORE repeatedly talks about BTC-Fi staking concepts, but after many years, there are very few practical applications available to ordinary users.
They cherry-pick positive data, hide ecosystem shortcomings and huge future unlocks, then fabricate a get-rich-quick expectation. This scheme is designed specifically to lure newcomers. No matter how good the numbers look on paper, without sustained incremental capital and a real ecosystem, the valuation is just a castle in the air.
Beware of such one-sided comparisons; don’t be misled by selectively filtered data.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile and carry very high risk. $BTC Bitcoin at 84,000, holders: "This is just the beginning, wait for 100,000."
$ETH Ethereum at 2,700, holders: "V God said, next year is the year of Ethereum." (He said the same last year)
$ZEC at 1,500, holders: silent. Because once they speak, people ask "What is this old coin?" and then watch it rise from 815 to 1560.
Summary: Those making money stay silent, those talking are waiting to break even.
#BTCETF7DayInflows3B #USTYieldsPressure #MicronEarningsAhead #高盛预估2027年AI相关资本开支约1.2万亿美元
Goldman Sachs has thrown out another big number.
They expect that by 2027, the capital expenditures of the five giants Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle will reach $1.2 trillion. That's significantly more than the $800 billion projected for 2026. Where will this money be spent? All on AI infrastructure: data centers, computing power, and electricity.
What impact does this have on us? I'll break it down in two layers.
First, the money-burning game of AI infrastructure has not stopped; it's accelerating. Don't expect hardware costs for miners and AI computing projects to drop in the short term. Chips, storage, electricity—everyone is competing fiercely, and the underlying costs are rigid.
Second, the market is no longer focused on how much you spend, but whether that money can turn back into real cash. Meta is pushing AI hardware and shopping; everyone is racing to implement Agents. This is a brutal reshuffle signal for AI projects in the crypto space—giants are fighting for actual revenue, so those air coins that only write white papers will die even faster, and money will concentrate on projects with real business.
Here’s my take.
$1.2 trillion sounds scary, indicating that the AI direction is far from over and the money is truly being poured in. But let's not get carried away by grand narratives; giants burning money doesn't mean your air coins will rise. So be rational and don't act impulsively.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH The Trump administration has set its sights on the overseas stablecoin territory.
The Treasury Department, the State Council, and the International Development Finance Corporation may all get involved. The likely approach is the government setting the stage while private companies perform. On the surface, it's about promoting dollar stablecoins, but in reality, it's extending dollar hegemony from the banking system onto the blockchain. In countries with weak financial infrastructure, ordinary people will directly use on-chain dollars, effectively sidelining their national currencies. Tether alone holds $114.9 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds; the larger the stablecoin market, the greater the short-term demand for U.S. debt, meaning the whole world is helping the U.S. absorb its debt.
For BTC, there is short-term competition. Stablecoins are centralized dollars, while BTC is a decentralized asset competing for the same user base. But over the long term, the situation reverses. More and more people start using on-chain dollars, stepping into the crypto world. Once accustomed to on-chain transfers, some will explore on-chain assets. BTC, as the most robust base-layer asset, will eventually be recognized. The more widespread stablecoins become, the larger the on-chain ecosystem grows, and the more solid BTC's fundamental value becomes.
Currently, it's still in the discussion phase; specific companies, target markets, and timelines are undecided. Don't expect the news to pump prices in the short term. The Federal Reserve is still advancing the stablecoin regulatory framework, and bank stablecoins have already begun payment and settlement operations. The path is being laid step by step, and the direction is clear.
This wave of dollar on-chain adoption is a long-term positive for BTC; don't chase highs in the short term. Wait for the plan to be implemented and observe changes in on-chain data before making moves. Do you think stablecoins going overseas can succeed? $BTC $ETH $SOL #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 To conclude: $SOL hasn't been sideways these past three days; it's been climbing.
On 9-24 it was still at $114, and today (9-27) it's already at $124, up 8.7% in three days.
Today BTC is hovering around 84,800, ETH is making small gains of +1.2%, but SOL is rising alone by +3.8%, with a trading volume close to $900 million.
This isn't just hype; there's solid substance behind it: pump.fun continues to dominate the charts, Solana's new coin mining remains highly popular, and $RAY within the ecosystem also surged 15% today — this isn't an isolated coin rally, it's the entire Solana ecosystem building momentum.
BTC is consolidating, SOL is not. Once BTC stabilizes a bit, this SOL rally is very likely to continue.
Do you think 125 can hold?Boss Ten's one-click liquidation, and suddenly the bull-bear debate in the group chat went silent. 😂 Not because the bulls won. Not because the bears won. Everyone is just scared of copying the wrong homework. I don't follow orders. I watch expectations, positioning and price. Maybe the big player closing shorts is preparing to flip long. Maybe he's simply refusing to get squeezed again. Action is action. The reason behind it is another story. Two things are catching my attention: 📌 BTC is holBoss Ten wiped out all short positions with one click! The whole group instantly went silent……
Just a moment ago, they were shouting short frantically,
then with one move——
Everyone fell silent.
But what’s really worth watching isn’t the act of "clearing all shorts" itself.
Because this move could mean two things:
He’s preparing to go long
Or simply doesn’t want to be forced short anymore
So don’t rush to shout "The bull is back!" yet!
What I care more about is:
After the move, how will the price actually move?
Before the following two conditions are truly confirmed,
I’ll treat any voices of "bullish rebound" as premature celebration.
① Can BTC weekly candle truly hold above the 50-week moving average?
② Can BTC defend the key cost zone of 78,000–82,000?
If the second zone is lost,
the original "cost zone" might turn into a trap zone later.
Currently, several key levels:
₿ BTC
Support: 85,000 / 82,000–82,500
Resistance: 86,000–86,600 / 88,000
ETH
Support: 2,700 / 2,630–2,660
Resistance: 2,750–2,800 / 3,000
SOL
Support: 115–116 / 110–113
Resistance: 120 / 123–126
Here comes the most awkward part……
Tie your hands up. $NEAR made a profit of 17.42 million on this trade—are they a genius or is the market just being generous?
The “mk4” on Hyperliquid currently holds about $31.16 million worth of long NEAR positions, with unrealized gains already reaching $17.42 million. Even more astonishing, this position was initially opened around $2.35 and used 10x leverage.
Don’t think of this as “smart money going crazy bullish.” NEAR itself has been in a strong market recently; the NEAR open interest (OI) on Hyperliquid is about $390 million, and the funding rate remains positive, indicating that long positions are clearly crowded.
This $17.42 million unrealized gain looks great, but as soon as this whale starts to cash out, the market will suddenly face a significant selling pressure. Moreover, NEAR has just launched spot trading on Hyperliquid, and whether spot demand can support the perpetual leverage is the key to whether this rally can continue.
The real excitement is whether “the whale, having already made so much, will continue to hold.” If the price keeps rising and spot volume expands accordingly, this position could become a trend signal; if OI keeps piling up but spot can’t keep up, then the $17.42 million might instead become a trigger to dump the market.#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The long-term yields on U.S. Treasury bonds continue to rise, and the real concern in the market is no longer just the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, but that the long-term financing costs in the U.S. are systemically increasing. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching or even surpassing 5%, and the 30-year yield is above 5%, with long-term rates clearly deviating from the low-rate environment of the past decade. There are three core factors behind this: First, fiscal deficits and debt supply. The U.S. needs to continuously issue a large amount of government bonds, and as the market needs to absorb more and more long-term bonds, it demands higher yields as compensation. Simply put: More debt → greater supply → investors demand higher rates. Second, inflation risks are rising again. Middle East energy risks persist, and the uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz navigation adds upward pressure on oil prices. If energy prices remain high, the Fed’s room to cut rates will be limited. Thus, the market begins to reprice: High inflation → higher interest rates → long-term bond yields remain elevated. Third, the term premium is rising. This is actually the most noteworthy point now. In the past, the market was willing to hold 30-year or even longer U.S. Treasuries at relatively low yields because there was confidence that U.S. inflation was stable, fiscal policy was manageable, and dollar assets were safe. But now the market is demanding higher long-term returns. This means that long-term U.S. Treasuries are shifting from being a “safe haven asset” to becoming an asset that must bear fiscal, inflation, and term risks. What does this mean for the global market? The impact will gradually extend from the financial markets $BTC rebounded to $84,908. The most common impulse is to mistake a corrective move for a trend reversal. I’m more concerned whether it can close above 84,700 and hold on the pullback, rather than just touching a few hundred points higher intraday; if it’s just a thin-volume rally, I won’t chase for now.
In the public market, $ETH is around $2,714.88, $SOL around $124.23, with some improvement in correlation, but this is still not enough to prove that risk appetite has stabilized. For me, 84,700 is the confirmation level above, 83,600 is the invalidation level below; between these two, I will reduce my position and judgment, waiting for volume and closing price to give direction.
This is a contrarian personal market observation: just because it "looks like it’s already rising" doesn’t mean you have to act. If $BTC breaks and holds above 84,700 with volume, I will consider following the trend; if it falls back below 83,600, I will defend first rather than try to guess the bottom. Would you rather wait for a volume-backed close or wait for a pullback to hold? Just sharing information, not investment advice.Dogecoin rose 15% this week, and I have mixed feelings.
The market is straightforward: it went from 0.087 to 0.104, a weekly increase of about 15%, with trading volume expanding roughly 189%. On the 25th, volume shrank and there was a pullback, but it held above 0.093. The complicated part is that after walking my dog at night, I saw on GitHub someone proposed a hard fork plan: cutting the block reward from 10,000 coins to 1,000 coins, reducing annual inflation from 3.2% to 0.3%.
In plain language: someone thinks Dogecoin is being issued too much and wants to "reduce production" to make it scarcer and more valuable.
My first reaction was actually uncomfortable. Dogecoin was originally about large supply, cheap price, and casual play; if it becomes a scarce coin, is it still the same dog? But then I thought, the community is willing to seriously discuss the economic model for ten years from now, which means this project is still alive and people care about it.
I won’t guess the short-term movement. Such proposals won’t be implemented in a year or two and require most of the community’s approval. My plan remains unchanged: accumulate when appropriate, hold when needed.
Long-termism for me isn’t about grand vision, it’s just laziness. Once I pick a dog, I stick with it as it ages. These small fluctuations below 0.1, looking back three years from now, will all be a straight line. $DOGE BTC Market Analysis Diary-1
1. After BTC officially surged above the 50-week moving average with high volume and broke through the previous high at 825,000, the market has shifted from a consolidation range to an uptrend. The 50-week moving average has served multiple times as resistance and support for BTC. It is a moving support and resistance level accepted by the market and also a boundary between bull and bear markets in previous years.
2. This weekend will be a critical day. If the weekly candle closes above the previous high of 830,000, the market can confirm a valid breakout, ending the downtrend and moving towards higher highs. If it closes below 830,000 with a long wick, it indicates the market does not accept this price and may continue to test support at 750,000.
3. If the market accepts the 830,000 level, BTC will continue to test support in the short term and then push towards the 950,000 price level, consolidating between 830,000 and 950,000.Weak rebound, will there be a sharp drop tonight? My analysis:
1. Macro scenario: After key foreign visits/meetings conclude, the market often exhausts positive news. If the subsequent China visit window closes, sentiment may reverse.
2. Market: High-level sideways consolidation is draining buying power; the 90,000 level has long resisted breakthrough, lows are moving lower, rebound volume is shrinking, resembling distribution rather than accumulation.
3. Cross-market: Gold on a large scale is linked with BTC and often leads. Currently, gold's rebound is also weak; if it weakens, Bitcoin is unlikely to remain strong alone.
4. Sentiment insight: Binance-related rumors of a run, I interpret as "running away"; entering at high levels talking about running is already too late.
However, ETF funds give a contrary signal: during the consolidation period, BTC and mainstream ETFs mostly see net inflows. So even if a pullback is expected, don't be overly bearish; the smaller players remain firm, and the big ones may not plunge deeply.
$BTC I'm keeping this one on a short leash for now. $BTC 's climbed roughly 11% this week, dragging $ETH and $SOL upward with it, while $SUI exploded nearly 44% in the same stretch. Sounds exciting — except the Altcoin Season Index only sits at 48, well under the 75 mark that actually confirms broad rotation. Meanwhile $XRP barely budged. This reads more like early appetite returning than a genuine wave. Staying selective, not diving in everywhere.
#BTCETF7DayInflows3B #USTYieldsPressure ZEC shorts have indeed been heavily liquidated this round. The weekly increase exceeded 28%, and there were multiple cases of short liquidations exceeding tens of millions of dollars in a single day. The spot ETF continues to attract capital, and the compliant channels of Grayscale and 21Shares have opened traditional capital entry points. Shorts holding on hard are going against the flow of funds.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
You are right to point out that this coin’s strength lies in its narrative, which is different from BTC and DOGE. The privacy sector itself has been repriced, and institutions value the scarce label of “compliant privacy asset.” The capital structure has changed; previous resistance levels are now just waypoints.
It’s correct not to advise shorting. Shorting strong coins is just a matter of time before liquidation.Woke up to find an extra car in my account, who exactly is this altcoin season rewarding? Are you also secretly afraid of a top while watching the price rise? Let's talk about the rhythm first. This is not the early stage of a broad rally; it's more like a game of rotation and pull-ups. Chasing gains can be profitable, but sudden shakeouts can also happen. I'm focusing on the cross-market linkage: long-term US Treasury yields are still pushing higher, financing costs haven't eased, yet BTC spot ETFs have had nearly $3 billion in net inflows over 7 consecutive days. External money hasn't withdrawn; it's just more selective. This means risk appetite hasn't broadly spread but is concentrated in a few narratives. - Momentum signals: NEAR has surged from above $1 to around $5, nearly 180% in 30 days, daily price almost hugging the moving average upward, with the previous high of 5.213 right overhead; FIL is holding near 1.13, having previously touched 1.2296, indicating the sector is still rotating in relay. - Momentum signals: ZEC unrealized gains have been shown at the $100,000 level, NEAR holdings exceed $300,000 with unrealized gains around $35,000. These kinds of showings attract follow-up buying, keeping short-term sentiment ignited. - Risk signals: When everyone starts thinking "a quick correction is coming," it often hasn't peaked yet; conversely, once ETF inflows slow and long-term yields surge again, the first to be pulled out are the fastest-rising assets. My understanding is that the market is not trading on "the bull is back," but rather "money is still here, but only for strong narratives." BTC stabilizes, then ETH and altcoins have room to rotate; once BTC weakens, large deviations like NEAR will quickly retrace. The bullish path is an effective breakthrough of the previous high,