Orbit Post Sitemap
The ETH stuck in the bridge has now become a hot potato.
DYORSWAP just released a compensation plan: small addresses get a 40% refund, and amounts exceeding 5 ETH will be reviewed separately.
To translate: small holders get back 40%, large holders, wait and see.
My first reaction to this ratio isn’t about the money, but the feeling—you think it’s the mainnet, but it’s a fake chain; it’s easy to put money in, but you only get 40% back when you take it out.
They also provided the compensation address, starting with 0xdf25, but they specifically emphasize they will never ask you to transfer funds to pay fees.
This sentence is the key.
Because whenever something goes wrong, the busiest aren’t the officials, but those impersonating officials to collect “unfreezing fees.”
From a short-term market perspective, this incident doesn’t directly affect the market; $ETH will move and fall as it should.
What really hurts is trust. That a fake mainnet could trick people into bridging shows that when everyone rushes into new things, the verification step is basically based on feeling.
What I’m more concerned about now is how they will ultimately classify those addresses holding more than 5 ETH.
If the number of “suspected phishing” cases increases with more reviews, the compensation ratio might shrink further.
Let’s wait for the large amount review results before deciding whether this is wrapping up or just beginning.
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $ETH The interest rate decision neither raised nor cut rates, yet the crypto market chose to price downward. BTC fell back to around 84,000, with ETH leading the decline. Market maker Galaxy Digital believes the real issue is not the pause in rate hikes, but that the positive effects were priced in early, leaving only capital outflows after realization. ETFs have seen continuous net redemptions, BTC has fallen below the 200-day moving average, and the trend is weakening. The Federal Reserve's wording is also cautious, acknowledging that both growth and employment are cooling.
The rebound to 84,000 should not be viewed optimistically. Oversold recovery, short covering, and trapped longs above will intertwine, and rebounds are often used to reposition short positions. ETH's RSI is around 33, not yet in the extreme zone, MACD momentum continues to weaken, and 2,560 USD has shifted from support to resistance. In the medium term, ETH remains a weak point: BTC outflows dominate, but ETH contract positions are loosening amid the decline, and 2,200 USD is a level that must hold. UNI has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, moving averages show a bearish alignment, and DeFi is under pressure.
In a bear market, being bullish is acceptable, but going long requires caution. The 84,000 consolidation looks more like a window to reduce positions rather than a reason to chase longs. Wait for the next short confirmation; the rebound will be an opportunity to add shorts.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 550,087 SOL, 20x leverage, opened a month ago.
Most people's first reaction when seeing such a position is: this person is crazy. 20x leverage, one pullback and it's gone.
My first reaction is a bit different.
I'm more curious about what price SOL was when he opened the position. Because now the floating profit is 23 million, which means his cost basis was very low, low enough to withstand 20x volatility and survive until today. This is not luck, it's a good entry.
Then he set a take profit at 200.
Notice this move. Not continuing to be greedy, but planning the exit in advance.
This is what I admire. People who make big money aren't necessarily the best at judging the market, often they just have good entry points and know when to exit.
To be honest, we retail traders can't replicate 20x leverage, but "thinking ahead about where to enter and where to exit" has nothing to do with leverage.
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $SOL $BTC $SOL $ZEC Market Update Today!
BTC/ETH are relatively strong, but altcoins show clear divergence, with ZEC continuing to strengthen independently.
1. Capital flows back into crypto
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion, one of the largest weekly inflows in nearly a year; the ETH ETF also recorded a net inflow of about $690 million, and the SOL ETF set a single-day inflow record of approximately $86.7 million.
2. US Treasury yields
Recently, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC and gold. The 10Y yield once broke above 5.2%, which suppressed BTC.
So there is a very clear hedge in the market now:
ETF capital inflow → BTC rises
But:
Rising US Treasury yields → BTC's upside is constrained
3. ZEC follows a different logic
ZEC is currently around $1650, up about 7% intraday, and has recently significantly outperformed BTC.
A key catalyst is capital entering Zcash-related products. Grayscale's Zcash ETF recently reached nearly $1 billion in assets, with about $306 million in new funds since August.
So this is not simply:
BTC rises → ZEC follows
But more like:
BTC/ETH capital returns → market risk appetite recovers → ZEC's own capital/narrative strengthens further → ZEC's independent rally#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
Investment bank Rosenblatt initiates coverage on SanDisk with a Buy rating and a target price of $2400. The core logic is that AI is reshaping the value positioning of NAND flash memory.
In the past, NAND was a commoditized product competing mainly on price. However, AI large model inference requires massive data read/write, and the market now values storage density, performance, and supply stability more, with price no longer the primary consideration. SanDisk and Kioxia's BiCS8 and BiCS10 flash memory solutions achieve high capacity with fewer stacking layers, meeting AI storage demands. Meanwhile, the company has signed long-term contracts with eight major customers, locking in most of its future capacity to smooth out cyclical fluctuations.
My view: Storage chips are an important part of AI computing power support, no longer just a single GPU storyline. The recovery in storage demand will boost the overall sentiment in the tech sector, indirectly benefiting the crypto market's tech narrative. But note, institutional target prices are only forecasts; the storage industry is highly cyclical, and if AI capital expenditure slows down, valuations can quickly adjust downward.
Do you think storage chips will become the main theme in the next phase of the AI market?Just saw Saylor drop another line: Even more orange, with that same orange dot Bitcoin Tracker next to it. The community's interpretation is familiar: the orange dot mostly corresponds to the Strategy adding position rhythm, and the official holding numbers usually come out the next day. The chart roughly still hovers around the scale of about 846,000 BTC. In the past hour, everyone has been debating whether there will be another top-up, but I haven't seen any official announcement numbers yet—implying there's still a layer of announcement between the hint and the transaction.#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元
Rosenblatt initiates coverage on SanDisk with a Buy rating and a target price of $2400. Core logic: AI is repositioning NAND from "commodity storage" to a "key component of AI infrastructure" — focusing not on the lowest price but on density, performance, and supply certainty.
• Data centers now account for over half of the NAND market; SanDisk's data center bit share surged from 12% to 38%
• Signed long-term contracts with 8 major customers, locking in nearly $94 billion in future revenue, with an average contract length of over 4 years
• Forward PE is under 10x, looks reasonably priced
But risks are also clear:
Q4 revenue rose 51% quarter-over-quarter, two-thirds of which came from price increases, only one-third from shipment volume. Consumer segment Q4 revenue fell 32% quarter-over-quarter; PC and mobile may not recover until 2027. The current 84.6% gross margin is supported by AI demand; if growth slows or capacity oversupply occurs, it is unsustainable.
One more detail: the big bullish candlestick on September 18th rose nearly 11%, directly due to inclusion in the S&P 100 index, triggering concentrated buying by passive funds. The industry logic is real, but that day's buying was not from industry capital. Monday's market action will be the real test.
Rosenblatt's logic is not hype; AI is indeed changing storage demand structure. But the $2400 bet hinges on the narrative that "NAND's cyclical attributes are weakening." If that narrative is disproven, the drop back will be swift. It's often said that after a new high, a liquidation wave is inevitable, and the bears have already set up their seats to watch the fireworks. But looking at the real trading data from Binance futures, to say something counterintuitive: this rally has no hidden traps at all.
Looking at the funding rate: BTC perpetual contracts recently average only 0.0018% every 8 hours, while the normal baseline is 0.01%. What does this mean? The leverage premium paid by the longs is less than 20% of usual, almost free. The money pushing the price up to around 84,600 is not borrowed leverage, but real cash.
Next, look at the open interest: 94,700 BTC, about 8 billion USD, indeed at a high level. But combined with the funding rate, it’s clear—the positions are heavy, but leverage is light. Without piled-up long leverage, there’s no chain reaction of liquidations. The "liquidation waterfall" you’re waiting for isn’t even in the script.
What’s more telling is the active orders: in the last hour, the taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.78, meaning sellers are the active side, yet the price has reached a new high. This shows someone is passively filling orders with limit orders below. This kind of rally isn’t noisy, but the support is solid.
So my stance is clear: a deep drop is unlikely, don’t rush to short. A fuel-less market likely means any pullback is just a wick sweeping liquidity, then continuing upward. What you really need to guard against isn’t a crash, but a "rising vacuum"—no one chasing the rally, so at the slightest stir comes a quick wick to scare you off, then it pulls back up.
Of course, I’m not advocating a one-sided view. The large holders’ long-short ratio of 1.87 is still slowly declining; smart money isn’t chasing but also isn’t aggressively shorting, waiting for confirmation. A volume breakout failure will still be followed by a retest, but the "leverage bubble is about to burst"Privacy is the only sector to break its previous high in 2026, but almost all funds are concentrated in ZEC and XMR,
$DASH is the only privacy coin in the sector that has completed the Orchard technology upgrade and still has a market cap below 1 billion,
so the sector doesn't need to increase 10 times more, it only needs funds to marginally overflow from $ZEC to fully ignite DASH,
reaching 10% of ZEC's market cap → price $218, reaching 15% of ZEC's market cap → price $328,
current price $68, potential odds 3-5 times!
I'm ready to take a position on it.#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC Bros, Aave's move really brings tokenized US stocks into the core circle of DeFi.
On September 25, Aave V4 officially launched the tokenized stock collateral lending feature. Eligible foreign users can use tokenized US stocks of Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla as collateral to directly borrow USDC. The initial total stock collateral limit is about $29 million. This means tokenized US stocks are no longer just "speculated on" on-chain but have truly become an underlying asset that can generate yield and be used for financing.
Let me break down the narrative upgrade behind this. We previously discussed that the SEC granted a temporary innovation exemption for tokenized US stocks, solving the "compliant trading" issue. Now Aave integrates it into collateral lending, solving the "usable as collateral" issue. Moving from "tradable" to "collateralizable" is a big step forward for the RWA track.
More importantly, this opens a new channel between traditional finance and DeFi. Users don’t need to sell their stocks; holding tokenized US stocks, they can borrow stablecoins to participate in other on-chain opportunities or hedge. The liquidity of the traditional stock market flows into the crypto world through this pipeline.
However, I have to pour cold water. First, only non-US users can participate; the SEC’s temporary exemption may change anytime, so compliance risks remain. Second, the $29 million limit is too small, more symbolic than actual capital.Hold positions and wait for the wind, let's talk about hype
The market is fluctuating narrowly, Bitcoin is stuck around 84000, no new positions will be opened at this level—the market is lukewarm, rather than chasing highs and lows, it's better to let the old positions slowly rise. Currently, the only position still underwater is HYPE, but it has the strongest valuation logic in my portfolio.
HYPE is the native token of the Hyperliquid platform, which is currently the largest decentralized perpetual contract exchange by on-chain trading volume—essentially bringing the "Nasdaq + futures exchange" onto the blockchain: no registration required, on-chain self-custody, instant order matching. It is one of the few exchange-type assets in the public chain ecosystem with real platform revenue.
Let's look at some key data: on-chain perpetual contract market share is about 60%-70%, making it the absolute leader; monthly trading volume remains at the 200-300 billion USD level, already comparable to some centralized exchanges; annualized protocol revenue is about 300-600 million USD in fees, with 100% of the revenue belonging to the protocol, which is continuously returned to token holders through buyback and burn.
The valuation side is also very transparent: Nasdaq's price-to-sales ratio is about 10-15x, Coinbase about 15-25x, HYPE's circulating market cap ratio is only 8-15x—using Nasdaq-level price-to-sales ratio to buy a much faster-growing on-chain exchange, with compliance risk but backed by SEC endorsement.
With the established deleveraging rhythm—slowly reducing from 10x to 5x, holding the positions that can withstand it, and letting the bullets fly a little longer. $FIL FIL's characteristic is a pulse surge followed by a long period of oscillation to digest chips.
Unlike small-cap altcoins that can keep rising continuously. As soon as there is a rapid surge, miners' break-even positions will flood out, requiring oscillation to fully digest this selling pressure before choosing the next direction.
Currently, it is in a divergence phase, with differing market views, which is reflected in this high-level oscillation market.BTC seems nailed around 83000, with intraday volatility as thin as paper; ETH is hovering around 2600, even short-term traders are yawning. Platform tokens are even more straightforward—when the market is still, they don't even bother to flip the script.
But the ETF channel is lively: funds have been net inflows for consecutive days, like stacking sandbags in the dark, quietly thickening the base layer bit by bit. What about retail investors? They're fixated on geopolitical news and options expiry dates, fingers hovering over the keyboard but hesitating to act.
So the market shows a strange phenomenon: support below, no chasing above, shrinking volume, yet contract open interest quietly climbs. Both bulls and bears are waiting—waiting for someone to blink first, waiting for a volume breakout candle to tear open the gap.
Don't be fooled by low volatility. The quieter the pond, the more likely it hides a rapid current. Once the direction is chosen, the catch-up rally or drop won't be gentle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 Why does setting a "must earn this much every month" goal for yourself actually make it easier to lose money?
When I first started trading, I also liked setting targets: earn 10% this month, at least a few hundred U every day.
It sounds like discipline, but in reality, it’s demanding the market to pay me according to my invoice.
When the market is favorable, the goal is quickly met, and people feel they can earn a bit more; when the market is bad, to catch up, they actively lower their standards.
Originally waiting for a breakout confirmation, later chasing after just one bullish candle; originally only trading BTC, eventually even leveraging small coins I hadn’t heard of. Trading no longer depends on whether opportunities arise, but on how much money is still needed by the end of the month.
My most typical case was at the beginning of the month when I earned 8%, just 2% short of the target. To make up the difference, I made several short-term trades I shouldn’t have, and in the end, not only did I fail to meet the target, I lost all the previous profits.
Trading results are inherently uneven.
Some months have abundant opportunities, some months the best move is to stay out of the market. You can set drawdown limits, enforce discipline, and review your trades, but it’s very hard to dictate how much profit the market must provide.
Once profit becomes a task, every candlestick feels like a payment reminder.
Remember: what you can control in trading is risk, position size, and execution; what you cannot control is when the market pays you. Forcibly chasing profit targets is essentially using your principal to cover your own anxiety.Holding two long positions, watching tonight to see if BTC can break through the ceiling.
CRCL is fully leveraged 5x long, opened at 87.74 now at 90.22, floating profit +14.13%; BTC is fully leveraged 4x long, opened at 84711.3, marked at 84946.3, small profit +1.10%. One is aggressive, the other moderate.
BTC is currently like grinding tofu—slightly pushing up, but volume hasn't increased. A real breakout depends on incremental funds igniting market sentiment; otherwise, it will just hover back and forth within the range, testing support. Although CRCL looks good short-term, it’s ultimately an altcoin tied to BTC: when BTC surges and falls back, CRCL gives back profits faster than anyone.
Margin rate is thick enough, so it won’t blow up short-term, but full leverage is a double-edged sword; a reverse spike and pullback will still hurt.
Tonight, watch if BTC shows volume: a volume-backed steady break above previous highs would be genuine; a volume-less hard pull-up is likely a bull trap. $BTC $ETH Day 3
Capital halved, bottoming around 0.9
Summary:
Issues: 1️⃣ Hastily buying in before the trend is confirmed, then selling at a loss while always thinking it will rise the next second, causing bigger and bigger drops 2️⃣ Profit-taking points based on illusions; originally could have sold when it was over 5, but set the take-profit too high 3️⃣ Unable to stop trading after reaching the desired daily profit
Solutions: 1️⃣ Set take-profit and stop-loss points at a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 2️⃣ Stop immediately once the expected profit is reached A $1.3 billion investment fund is now also "going on-chain."
ARK Invest has brought its ARK Venture Fund onto Ethereum.
This fund itself manages about $1.3 billion in assets, with an investment portfolio including companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, and others.
But the easiest point to misunderstand here is:
"Fund going on-chain" does not mean ARK suddenly issued a new token to speculate on.
What the fund originally invested in and its core strategy have not automatically changed just because it went on-chain.
The main change is:
Fund shares can be issued and managed through blockchain infrastructure.
I increasingly feel that the truly interesting part of asset tokenization is not necessarily having another token to speculate on.
Rather, it is that traditional financial assets like stocks and funds are gradually switching to a different mode of operation behind the scenes.
#Ethereum #AssetTokenization #ARK #Blockchain*Bitcoin Latest September 27 Final Version Chinese*
*Current Price $84,132 | $83,174-$84,715 High Volatility*
*1. $2.4 Billion Big Money Returns*
$2.4 billion inflow in one week, the largest since October, $2.84 billion in 6 days, pulling the full year from -$5.8 billion to +$800 million positive, BlackRock IBIT bought $1.16 billion. Yesterday saw the first outflow of -$11.8 million, key is to watch the sustainability
*2. $15.9 Billion Options Expire Today*
Maximum pain point at $85K, for every 1% drop there is a $142 million buy wall supporting, so $84K can't fall. After expiration, the wall disappears, looking up to $90K with $2B shorts, looking down to $80K with $5.2B longs
*3. US Treasury 5.22% Nineteen-Year High Pressure*
US 10-year at 5.22%, Japan 30-year at 4.223%, borrowing is most expensive, risk assets under pressure, so $87,399 not broken, stuck below MA5 $84,650, holding above MA10 $82,963
*Key Levels:*
Resistance $84,650 / $85K / $87,399 / $90K
Support $82,963 / $80,172 / $76K / $72K
*Standing back above $85K and holding for 2 days looks to $90K, breaking below $82,963 looks to $80K. Waiting for next week's employment and inflation data to set direction.*$GOOGL
Generative AI is reshaping the search gateway. Is Google's moat weakening or being reconstructed?
The key is whether AI responses can maintain user intent, advertising conversion, and distribution advantages. If query growth and cloud business improve simultaneously, the investment will translate into stronger cash flow.
If traffic grows but search revenue slows, I would downgrade my assessment. The weekend market is very boring, with small fluctuations. From the 4-hour structure, $BTC does show signs of upward momentum buildup, but it cannot yet be confirmed that a new round of rally has started.
The lows continue to rise, the price has climbed back above the short-term moving average, and a small ascending triangle has formed. Position volume is low, and funding rates are relatively mild, indicating no obvious leverage crowding in the market for now.
ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive days, and spot buying is still supporting.
The only current issue is that trading volume hasn't picked up yet.
Although bulls have the advantage, price, volume, and the external market have not yet formed a resonance. After the U.S. stock market opens tomorrow, the direction may become clearer.
If the Nasdaq strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields remain stable, BTC could break out with volume and hold above $85,500, first targeting $87,400, and after breaking through, then $89,000.
If it rallies without volume, or tech stocks weaken again, BTC may first clear liquidity around $83,000. If that level breaks, the downside target is $81,000 to $82,000.
Short-term bias is bullish, but $85,500 is the starting line. Before holding above it, it's just consolidation; only a volume breakout counts as a real rally.$SOL to 200, only then will he have truly earned 65M
A month ago, someone opened a 20x long position.
The position size was 550,000 $SOL, about 67.88 million USD.
What does this number mean:
Currently, the unrealized profit exceeds 23 million, but not a cent has been cashed out.
20x leverage means if the price moves 5% against him, the principal is gone.
What others think:
Seeing 23 million unrealized profit, they think he has already won.
The take-profit order is set at 200 USD, as if just one step away.
In fact, that money is not yet in hand.
The order is an intention, not a completed trade.
If the price hasn't reached 200, that 65M is just a paper number.
Between unrealized profit and actual receipt, there is a real sell order in between.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $SOL Liquidated. I’ve lost count of how many times this is now; this time I went 10x and it went to zero.
Trading from 2025 to 2026 for a year, in the end I still handed my principal over to the market. I used to think the generation before me missed the good times. In the 90s, they went into business, foreign trade, real estate, yet they still took an ordinary path. Only today do I realize I’m not much better than them. This era has more opportunities: AI, cryptocurrency, short videos, cross-border e-commerce, computing power, and new stories happen every day. But the more opportunities there are, the more confused people become. The older generation didn’t know where the times would lead; our generation sees too many directions but doesn’t know which path truly belongs to us. I used to think being ordinary was because I missed opportunities. Now I understand that seeing opportunities and seizing them are separated not just by courage, but also by knowledge, accumulation, and luck.
I’m 21 this year, standing for the first time in my parents’ shoes, beginning to understand their helplessness facing the waves of the times back then. Missing the era doesn’t mean not seeing it, but not being ready when you do see it.
Now I sit under the apartment building, smoking cigarette after cigarette, the glowing tips flickering like a heartbeat. As long as it’s still lit, I tell myself: I’m still alive, there’s still hope.
But when I look down, there are only cigarette butts on the ground, and this body crushed by life, gasping for breath.
The wind grows stronger, like countless voices whispering in my ear: You’re no good, you’re wrong, you should accept your fate.
I really can’t accept it.
Really can’t accept it.
$BTC $ETH Saylor stated on X that Strategy plans to convert four preferred stocks including STRC to daily dividends to "support price stability and demand," with a vote scheduled for October 28. Breaking it down: the interest rate and total dividend obligation remain unchanged; the 12% annualized STRC pays about 3 to 4 cents per share daily, but the record days increase from 24 times a year to 365 times a year, so the total cash flow remains the same. The key background: STRC has a face value of about $9.3 billion, the company recently repurchased at about $97 and doubled the repurchase limit to $2 billion, with the price continuously below face value. The overlooked downside: short-term funds attracted by daily interest will also withdraw daily, smoothing the price but not the financing cost; if $BTC weakens and slows issuance, the rigid 12% dividend pressure remains. Judgment: if the discount persists after the switch, the root cause lies in credit rather than frequency. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. $DOGE decisively shorted! Exposing this fragile paper wealth, seeing that 67.16% of people are making money, but with a heavy position of 110 million U, the total profit squeezed out is only 187,500 U.
1203 long positions are holding a massive 110 million U position, yet the floating profit on the books is only a pitiful 187,500 U. Look at the average price: longs opened at 0.097014, current price is 0.097180. With such a huge heavy position, the advantage is only separated by a slight price difference of 0.1%. This means that profits on over a hundred million in funds are as thin as cicada wings, with no moat at all.
As soon as there is a slight disturbance and the price drops a bit, this 67% profitable position will instantly turn into a total loss. I've already heavily shorted this trade, specifically targeting these fragile longs that break with just one poke!*Bitcoin Latest September 27 Evening Edition Chinese*
*Current Price $84,132 | Volatility Range $83,174-$84,715*
*1. Big Money Is Back $2.4B*
US spot ETF inflows of $2.4 billion in one week, the largest since October, totaling $2.84 billion in 6 days, turning this year's -$5.8 billion to +$800 million positive, BlackRock IBIT $1.16 billion. Yesterday -$11.8 million paused, Ethereum also inflowed $690 million
*2. $15.9B Options Expiring Today*
Max pain point $85K, for every 1% drop there is a $142 million buy wall, so $84K can't fall. After expiration, upside target $90K with $2B shorts, downside $80K with $5.2B longs
*3. US Treasury 5.22% Caps*
US 10-year at 5.22%, a 19-year high, Japan 30-year at 4.223% also a new high, borrowing is too expensive, so $87,399 not broken, oscillating below $84,650 MA5, holding above MA10 $82,963
*Support $82,963, Resistance $84,650, Strong Support $80,172. Above $84,650 target $90K, below $82,963 target $80K*
*The key is sustainability, institutions need to keep buying for a bull market.*Your summary is very accurate — *$84K-$85K high-level oscillation, waiting for next week's macro direction*, that's the current market.
I'll add 2 key points you didn't mention that will decide whether next week is $90K or $80K:
*1. $2.84 billion ETF inflow vs. 5.22% US Treasury 19-year high*
The spot demand + institutional inflow you mentioned matches: $2.84 billion in 6 days pulled the annual -$5.8 billion to +$800 million, IBIT $1.16 billion, which is the fuel for $74,955 → $87,399.
But the pressure is the US Treasury yield you mentioned — US 10-year at 5.22%, a 19-year high, Japan 30-year at 4.223% new high, borrowing is too expensive, and high-risk assets fear this most. So after BTC +5% this week, it got stuck at $84.3K-$84.6K, ETH $2.69K, SOL $121 all followed with consolidation.
*2. Yesterday was a turning signal*
- After 6 days of ETF continuous inflow, yesterday saw the first outflow of -$11.8 million
- $15.9 billion options expire today, with the biggest pain point at $85K, every 1% drop has a $142 million buy wall supporting, so $84K won't fall easily, but after expiration, the wall disappears
*Next week's macro data you mentioned = decisive*
Employment, inflation, GDP — good data = yields rise again, BTC first looks at $82,963 MA10, then $80,172 MA20 ($5.2B long liquidation zone) BTC didn't fall over the weekend but rose instead, up 5.3% this week — the best week since January.
An update on the market tonight. BTC rose from 84,000 in the morning to 84,893; it not only didn't fall over the weekend but quietly rallied. ETH reached 2713, SOL rose 3% to 124, and QNT surged 48% in a single day.
A few data points worth noting:
1. **BTC rose 5.34% this week, the best week since January this year.** You read that right — despite macro pressures like 5.23% US Treasury yields and 4.6% inflation expectations, BTC had its strongest week in half a year.
2. **BTC ETF net inflows hit a record $2.4 billion last week.** Not tens of millions, but 2.4 billion. Institutions are aggressively buying at the 84,000 level.
3. However, the SEC postponed the crypto ETF options decision from today to November 11. So, a short-term catalyst is missing.
My judgment: **This weekend's rally is institutions positioning ahead of Trump's America.gov announcement next Tuesday.** Jensen Huang and Elon Musk are attending; if the AI + government narrative materializes, the market could gap up at Monday's open.
But note — the ETF options delay until November indicates no major regulatory moves in the short term. The rise is real, but don't get carried away. #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货
The boss has something to say
CME is launching BCH and UNI futures. When the news came out, BCH surged over 31%, and UNI rose nearly 20%. Now the hype has cooled down, BCH is down 0.54%, UNI is up 0.38%. A typical event-driven catalyst: prices rise then fall back.
But there is a data point about UNI that is even more worth watching. In the past 30 days, tokenized stocks generated $20.9 billion in trading volume, with Uniswap V4 capturing 40.7% of the share. What does this mean? The real trading demand in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector is largely running through Uniswap. UNI’s rise is not just driven by CME futures; it has on-chain fundamental support.
I believe UNI’s long-term logic is more solid than BCH’s. BCH is driven by futures listing expectations, while UNI is driven by the share of tokenized asset trading volume. If RWA continues to expand, Uniswap’s protocol revenue will rise accordingly. This is structural. $BTC
But don’t get carried away in the short term. CME futures officially launch on October 19, and the positive news has already been priced in. The Fed just raised interest rates, 5-year US Treasury yields broke 5%, and the high interest rate environment remains unchanged. UNI rose to 9.44 then pulled back; chasing highs is not cost-effective.
I still hold over 84,000 contracts of BTC, with a stop loss at 82,000, targeting 88,000 to 90,000. I won’t chase UNI; I’ll wait for a pullback near 8.5 to stabilize before considering. Manage position size well, no heavy positions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.This roller coaster ride made my heart pound, but the account hasn't crashed yet, so it was a close call without danger.
BTC opened at an average price of 83888, mark price 84164, floating profit 492U, return rate +2.30%. Isolated margin with 7x leverage, over 20,000U base position, the return rate isn't impressive, but the absolute profit is decent, maintaining a margin ratio of 3419.7%, an absurdly thick safety cushion.
ETH was the most comfortable trade. Opened at 2395.52, current price 2738.09, capturing a more than 14% one-sided rise. 3x low leverage, return rate +42.89%, unfortunately only 0.02 ETH position, margin 18.25U, actual profit 6.85U. Liquidation safety cushion 8725%, purely practice, no pressure at all.
ZEC was tough. Opened at 1649.24, current price 1619.66, floating loss nearly 495U, return rate -35.86%. Full margin with 20x leverage, risk obviously amplified, although the margin ratio of 1282.2% means no immediate liquidation concern, this trade hurts the most.
SOL long position didn't earn much, only 16.31U, but the return rate was as high as 30.06%. 54.59U margin with 50x leverage, opened at 113.88, current price 114.56, less than 1% fluctuation but big gains, definitely thrilling.
After all these operations, BTC is stable, ETH is for practice, ZEC is dragging behind, SOL is a heart-pounding gamble. Position management is still more important than direction.#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划
The stablecoin sector might be gradually shifting from a "crypto tool" to "financial infrastructure."
Previously, when people talked about USDT and USDC, many thought of them merely as tools for arbitrage and hedging within exchanges. But if the U.S. truly promotes broader overseas use of dollar stablecoins, the underlying logic changes completely.
Simply put, the dollar used to circulate mainly through the banking system, international trade, and financial markets. In the future, if stablecoin scale continues to grow, the dollar could enter many more scenarios via on-chain payments. You can understand this as the U.S. exploring extending the dollar's influence from traditional financial networks to blockchain networks.
Of course, the biggest controversy here is obvious. Supporters believe stablecoins make dollar payments faster and more convenient, especially in regions where financial infrastructure is less developed, potentially increasing dollar usage.
On the other hand, the market worries that if more people directly use dollar stablecoins, some countries' own monetary systems might come under pressure.
For the crypto community, this direction is actually more worth attention than short-term speculation on some MEME coin. Because once stablecoins truly expand their application, the impact is not just on trading volume but on the entire on-chain economy's capital flow.
Do you think stablecoins will become an important tool for global payments in the future, or are they just a new play for dollar expansion? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
I developed an AI quant model that divides market returns into alpha and beta.
Beta is what anyone participating can get, like holding the Nasdaq long-term with an annualized return of 7%. Alpha is the return exceeding that 7%. Countless people aim to capture alpha.
So there are two methods: quantitative and subjective.
Quantitative means finding some parameters and fixed trading rules.
Subjective means personal judgment.
The biggest problem with using quant to get alpha is: once the method is replicable, its excess returns will quickly decay. Anything replicable will eventually degrade into beta. In one word: competition.
Therefore, to continuously obtain alpha, you must use subjective judgment that is non-replicable, non-standard, and cannot be written into rules. This is the source of long-term excess returns. And subjective judgment comes from personality, cognition, and the combined effect of investment tools.
In the end, the financial market is still a game of people.The extreme fee rate cap will be cut by 80%, not just talk.
Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan stated on Discord that the next network upgrade will lower the perpetual contract funding rate cap from 4% per hour to 0.5% per hour; the rationale is based on user feedback, and this cap is rarely reached in actual trading. The same upgrade batch also mentions raising the HIP-4 deployment quota (active outcomes per deployer approximately 100→200, daily deployment limit approximately 500→1000). (Odaily/Gate/TokenPost 9/27; announcement ≠ already live, cap reduction ≠ daily rate must change, quota ≠ trading volume; OKX HYPE about 92.28) The above is a summary of public information and not investment advice.A weak link in the $BTC AI narrative is being exposed: who will pay for these data centers. Oracle's capital expenditure was $28.5 billion in a single quarter, with free cash flow at negative $5.4 billion. It relies more on bond market financing than its peers, so credit pressure is showing up here first.
If financing costs continue to rise, the pace of data center construction may be forced to slow down. This is a medium-term pressure on AI infrastructure-related assets and an indirect impact on Bitcoin—when liquidity tightens, no asset is completely immune.Ten years of experience in the crypto circle
In 2016, I got involved with altcoins, peripheral mining, and by chance encountered You coin. At that time, I didn’t even know what an exchange was. Offline mining was 0.02 RMB each. I acted as a middleman and sold about one to two million coins from my hands. When it got listed on an exchange, it soared straight to $0.8. I deeply regretted it back then, but I was also slow to realize; at least I cashed out safely. The middleman’s margin also earned me my first pot of gold—50,000 yuan. I was once very prosperous.
When I was just 18 in 2020, I turned 400 yuan of capital into 200,000 yuan, catching the big bull market. At that time, money was just a string of numbers in my eyes. My parents worked hard to earn 200 yuan a day, while I could make thousands or tens of thousands in minutes opening positions on the exchange. For a newly adult me, it was a shock to my perception of money. Later, the bear market hit hard, and overnight my principal and profits were wiped out. Unwilling to accept this, I took out loans and borrowed money, went all in with high leverage, and got liquidated. At 18, I was 100,000 yuan in debt. I was numb and confused, feeling like I had lost direction in life. In the end, my family helped cover the hole.
Actually, I’m still involved in contracts now, but most of my funds are playing with 5x spot leverage. Small funds also try the thrill of high leverage.
I want to warn newcomers to the crypto circle: don’t enter with the mindset of getting rich overnight. Use spare money to learn slowly. Even if you pay it as tuition, it won’t affect your life. The result of heavy positions with high multiples is always liquidation!#闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 Investment bank Rosenblatt initiates coverage on SanDisk with a Buy rating and a target price of $2400. The analyst's core logic is that the AI industry is restructuring NAND flash value. Historically, NAND was a commodity competing on unit storage cost; however, after the explosion of large model inference, the market now prioritizes storage density, durability, and supply chain stability over simply low price.
SanDisk collaborates with Kioxia to develop BiCS8 and BiCS10, achieving higher capacity with fewer stacking layers, giving the technology a differentiated advantage. The company has signed contracts with eight major customers, with orders covering 65% of production capacity through fiscal year 2028, effectively smoothing out the cyclical fluctuations of the storage industry. Management expects revenue to maintain mid-to-high double-digit growth from fiscal years 2028 to 2030, with non-GAAP gross margins expected to stabilize around 80%.
On the day the news was released, SanDisk's stock price surged over 6% intraday. The strengthening of the storage sector will boost sentiment in the AI computing power industry chain, indirectly improving risk asset appetite and providing a slight positive sentiment boost to the crypto market.
However, a rational view is necessary. Broker target prices are long-term forecasts and not guaranteed to be realized. The storage industry is highly cyclical; if AI capital expenditures contract or demand falls short of expectations, NAND prices will quickly decline, suppressing profits.
Going forward, focus on tracking NAND spot prices and cloud providers' computing power procurement orders. Do not chase related stocks based solely on a single broker rating; the storage sector is volatile, so manage your positions carefully. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 【5000 U Challenge 10000 U｜Dual Currency Earnings Live Trading Diary】
Day 12
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 5125.02U
Cumulative Profit: +125.02U (+2.50%)
Today's Profit: -0.31U (-0.00%)
Market Review 📝
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
Weekend market liquidity was average, with the major index continuing to consolidate in a high-level range. BTC fluctuated between 83100-85200. Upward moves faced selling pressure, while dips found buying support. Frequent intraday spikes shook out positions, with bulls and bears deadlocked and no clear directional breakout.
The crypto market is closely linked with tokenized US stocks. The semiconductor sector remains internally divided; $xSOXS is still under pressure, while $xDELL shows slight recovery. Approaching month-end and options expiry, market noise and false breakouts increase, making short-term trades riskier. Weekend trends have limited reference value; true directional decisions will emerge once weekday liquidity returns.
Today's Operations:
No new dual currency earnings orders were opened over the weekend. Approaching month-end close, the strategy is to watch more and trade less, planning to wait for the monthly candle close to clarify the larger cycle before making new moves.
Today's UNI dual currency earnings order settled smoothly, securing steady interest income.
Current positions: 520U in xSOXL low-buy order, with an annualized reference rate of 55.94%, 12+ days left until settlement on September 28, status nearing expiry, continuing to accrue interest awaiting delivery; xDELL, ETH, and xSNDK orders remain at original levels without adjustment.
Capital allocation remains as planned: 80% in USDT and USDC earning pools for flexible interest income; 30-60% of funds planned for mid-to-long-term options layout, anticipating a major market move ahead, keeping dry powder for a confirmed opportunity; a small portion of crypto base holdings remain untouched.
Today's slight account drawdown stems from spot market fluctuations; dual currency earnings interest offsets most floating losses, keeping net asset value nearly flat.
Position Status:
$xSOXS spot position remains at a floating loss, accounting for only 5% of total capital. Light position and low cost mean short-term volatility won't disrupt overall rhythm, but there is an objective time cost. Patiently waiting for semiconductor sector recovery opportunities.
Personal Insight 💡
At month-end, restraining desire is more important than frequent trading.
Small ups and downs in a choppy market are normal; no need to overthink negligible daily gains or losses. With the monthly close approaching, the larger cycle shape will directly influence the upcoming market phase, so it's better to trade less than to open blind positions.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划
⚠️The above is only a personal live trading record and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR.$ZEC This short squeeze, the most vulnerable aren't actually the shorts, but those still using "too much increase" as an excuse. Have you noticed, the more people wait for a pullback, the less it actually pulls back? I was silent for two seconds when I saw that screenshot. ZEC current price 1644.07, short position opened at 909.48, unrealized loss already -807.71%, margin left only 32.88U, liquidation price stuck at 1930.65. In other words, if it doesn't rise another 18%, this position will be completely liquidated. The most ironic thing is, in the same account, a long position at 1509 has an unrealized profit of +89.24%, but only earned 1.34U. One side is bleeding, the other is recovering, the directions hedge each other, but the person is still being worn down. This isn't about right or wrong judgment, it's about the rhythm grinding you down repeatedly. My own understanding is, the market is not trading "how much ZEC is worth" right now, but "how many shorts haven't surrendered yet." From 800 to 1600, every point that looked like a top became the starting point for the next rally. The more people shout short, the thicker the fuel for the squeeze. From a derivatives perspective, the most dangerous part of this structure is: the higher the price goes, the thinner the short margin, the denser the liquidations, and the liquidations themselves push the price further. You think it's sentiment, but it's actually mechanical squeezing. The bullish logic is straightforward: as long as funding rates and open interest still favor the longs, the short squeeze chain isn't broken. For a highly controlled asset like ZEC, once it enters a self-reinforcing phase, 1800 $AZTEC I sold part of my position at 0.0168, purely based on the chart: the upward volume didn't keep up, the order book is fluctuating back and forth, a classic dog trader mutual cutting scenario. Retail investors are most vulnerable to getting hit on both ends in this kind of rhythm. What’s worth watching is that its turnover rate has never been low, indicating short-term funds are still active inside, so volatility won’t be small. The risk is also clear: purely technical, it could be suddenly pulled up by a big bullish candle at any time, so don’t get overexcited. Are you waiting for a rebound or just watching it go back down? 👇👇👇Short positions at 5.1 billion, long positions at 4.5 billion, whales are betting on a drop
A friend who doesn't trade crypto asked me what 9.6 billion means.
I said it's basically a group of big money betting the market will go down.
The data looks like this: long positions 4.548 billion, short positions 5.147 billion, shorts exceed longs by nearly 600 million.
What's even more ridiculous is the profit and loss: longs have earned 683 million, shorts have lost 756 million, yet the shorts are still holding despite losses.
That's strange, why hold on while losing money?
I guess they're not betting on direction, but waiting for a bigger drop.
Retail investors see a long-short ratio of 0.88 and think it's a bearish signal, but actually the shorts are adding to their positions despite floating losses.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $ZEC $ETH Ethereum 2780-2800 resistance pressure as expected, a pullback
Around 2720, if it doesn't break down, I have reduced some positions. Tonight, I'll see if it can go below 2700. If it can't, then it's time to exit. If it breaks down,watch 2670-2550
$BTC Bitcoin follows yesterday's idea, 87000 resistance pressure is considerable,can't get above 87300, opened shorts nearby.Currently watching the 87000-85000 range.If the range holds,it will consolidate and continue the rebound
#DailyOrbit Big brother, can you still make it to the other side this time? Looking at the current positions, it's really a bit risky.
BTC｜50x full position long
Entry 85724｜Mark price 84669
Position 200, unrealized loss -211036U
ETH｜30x full position long
Entry 2713｜Mark price 2701
Position 7500, unrealized loss -93183U
ETH｜30x full position long (partially closed)
Entry 2726｜Closed 2745
Closed volume 2730, pocketed +37124U
ZEC｜10x full position long
Entry 1510｜Closed 1522
Closed volume 701, pocketed +7422U
Don't look at the current losses, big brother did have some solid profits before. This ETH trade precisely closed 2730 coins, earning 37,124U; ZEC also smoothly took a bite, pocketing over 7,400U. These two trades combined for over 40,000U in profit, which would definitely be great with normal position sizes. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Unlocking rumors looming, yet $SUI is +8.1% in 24h: turning bearish
$SUI currently at 1.267, +8.1% in 24h, I lean bearish at this level.
The market is trading on unlocking news from over 8 hours ago: 2Z, SUI, ENA have large unlocks next week, with 2Z alone about $114 million. Despite the rumors, $SUI rose from 1.1995 to 1.2648 (+5.44%), I treat this as a high-level divergence.
First, the daily RSI is 73.2, overbought, chasing +8.1% is not appropriate.
Second, OI is down -1.46% from yesterday's record, price rose but positions didn't follow, a short squeeze; funding rate 1.186e-05 is neutral, bulls lack ammo.
Third, the broader market shows high-level divergence and pullback, 55/19 breadth supports heat, but US crypto concept stocks average -2.26%, overseas markets show weakness first.
Resistance above: 1.276
Support below: 1.137
If the rebound at 1.276 fails to hold, expect a drop to 1.137; MACD golden cross for 7 days is a counter-evidence, bulls are not completely dead if 1.137 holds.
Directly turning bearish. Enter short at current price 1.267, stop loss above at 1.2881, first target 1.1543, break to continue at 1.137.
Watching the market, follow me for signals.
$SUI $BTCBitwise released a 39-page research report on NEAR with an extremely bullish target of $562. Can you believe it?
Bitwise has just submitted the final prospectus for the NEAR spot ETF and simultaneously published a 39-page investment report. Under the base case scenario, NEAR is expected to reach $155 by 2030; the extreme bullish scenario target price is $562; the bearish scenario is $1.63. The report even compares NEAR's payment potential to Visa.
Meanwhile, NEAR's on-chain data is cooperating: TVL rose from $177 million to $232 million within a week, with weekly fees of $2 million. The Bitwise NEAR Staking ETF has been approved for listing on NYSE Arca under the ticker NRR, is custodied by Coinbase, and retains 67% of staking rewards. NEAR has also partnered with Ondo to bring tokenized US stocks to near.com, supporting confidential transactions across more than 30 chains.
My judgment: Institutions are building a "payment + staking + RWA" composite narrative for NEAR, which is a mid-to-long-term logic. But the short-term market is overheated, with RSI6 as high as 80.5, indicating severe overbought conditions.
Strategy: Do not chase the highs. Wait for a pullback to stabilize around 4.3-4.5 before considering a right-side entry. No matter how good the narrative is, it depends on whether the price cooperates.
$NEAR The entity suspected of building a position of 130,591 $ETH in 2023 has likely liquidated! 🧐
3 hours ago, it reduced its holdings by 16,919 ETH ($45.85 million). In the past week, the cumulative ETH transferred to exchanges increased by 128,972.05 ($345 million), with an average price of $2680.31.
If sold, the expected profit would be $84.31 million. After this deposit, the on-chain ETH balance has been cleared.Let's talk tonight about something many people overlook: funding rates
This thing is like a thermometer for retail investor sentiment, more honest than candlesticks:
- When the rate is negative (like BTC now): the bulls are too lazy to even pay interest, would you still rush in to catch the fall? Think about your odds
- When the rate is ridiculously high (above +0.05%): the bulls are overcrowded, chasing at this time is basically taking the bag
- When the rate is close to zero (like SOL now): the market has no clear idea, you shouldn't either, just rest
Three data points tonight: BTC slightly negative, ETH slightly positive, SOL near zero. The conclusion is one word: wait. Hold your hands, tonight you'll beat 80% of people.Continuing to share the follow-up Sandisk trading plan
The pullback on Friday did not break the low point, which means both waves of negative news were just shakeouts. After consolidation, the previous resistance level will be overcome. Recently, negative news appeared intraday, but the market quickly digested it. If it had dropped directly to the close, then the next wave of consolidation would begin. Look at the support at 1600; luckily it didn't break down.
This is very beneficial for the upcoming trend, with the Strait fully open, oil prices, and expectations for U.S. Treasury yields to recover. Currently, my long position is around 1800. Although the position is not ideal, once the Sandisk market starts, pushing up to 2000 will be a matter of minutes. So before breaking the key support at 1730, I try not to set stop losses. The upside target is 1950-2000.
If it can stand above 2000 later, it will be an excellent shorting opportunity. I will heavily short while controlling forced liquidation risk, depending on whether this opportunity arises.
Wishing everyone smooth trading! #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The big surge doesn't look like a short squeeze: Funding rate flat for $SUI
Current market shows SUI trading around $1.27, with daily lows and highs between about $1.13 and $1.29.
The market is wild: $0.68 → $1.27, roughly 80% of the rise completed in about eleven days.
The market might expect a high-beta short squeeze, with shorts forced to cover.
But the reality is a different pattern.
1. Funding rate is about 0.0057%, staying flat near zero, indicating no crowded shorts to be squeezed.
2. Perpetual positions rise along with price, with nominal contract positions increasing to around $50 million.
3. The driver seems more like spot narratives stacking up—DeepBook launch, LF joining, Basecamp warming up—rather than a chain of liquidations.
Flat funding and price running ahead show leverage hasn't reached its limit, and expectations have already been somewhat front-run.
A roughly 20 million volume monthly unlock is still ahead in early October, and Basecamp products won't be revealed until October 7-8.
If spot volume can't keep up mid-way, adding positions at high levels is more likely to fuel a sell-off.
Don't take the big bullish candle as confirmation of a short squeeze.
Focus on the days when unlocks hit the market, whether spot buying remains, and if the $1.13 daily low can continue to hold above.Brothers, after BTC and ETH fell from their eight-month highs, they are still holding strong above 84,000.
$BTC $84,700 | $ETH $2,700
Bitcoin retraced about 3% from the $87,265 high, and Ethereum simultaneously dropped to around $2,700. Liquidations in the past 24 hours were only $40.11 million, with BTC shorts accounting for 57% and ETH longs 52%, almost balanced with no one-sided slaughter.
ETF weekly inflows hit a yearly record, but Ethereum momentum stalls
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $2.39 billion, marking the best weekly performance of 2026. Ethereum ETFs also attracted funds, with BlackRock's ETHA alone taking in $326 million. Funds are buying on dips rather than fleeing in panic.
But one signal is worth noting: 72.7% of Ethereum accounts are long, the MACD histogram has compressed to zero, and the stochastic %K line has started to fall from 78%. The longs are overcrowded, but momentum is fading. $2,742 is a key resistance, which triggered a rejection and $96 million long liquidation this week.
For BTC, the monthly RSI has risen to 54, back above the 50 threshold, and the Supertrend turned green near $84,000. The last time a similar signal appeared, BTC rose about 700% cumulatively.
Let's discuss in the comments: can the ETF weekly inflow of $2.4 billion withstand Ethereum's momentum exhaustion?👇
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 At first glance, I thought 40% was a discount.
The DYORSWAP compensation plan is out: for cross-chain amounts under 5 ETH, a uniform 40% compensation.
Honestly, in the past, for something like this, they would delay as much as possible, pretend nothing happened, and in the end, most likely give nothing.
Now at least there's a figure; although 40% isn't much, it's better than empty promises.
Amounts over 5 ETH will undergo individual review; the official said some addresses might be involved in phishing or fraud.
To translate: if you have a large amount, don’t get too excited yet—they will check you one by one.
There’s one sentence I care about: the official specifically emphasized they will not ask you to send money, sign transactions, or pay fees.
This also means that some people have already started impersonating the official to scam compensation.
Newcomers are most likely to fall for this, rushing to click links when they see the words “claim compensation.”
I guess there will be a batch of fake customer service agents appearing later, specifically targeting those waiting for compensation.
#OKX预言家：第二赛季即将收官 $ETH Unlocking rumors looming, yet $SUI is +8.1% in 24h: turning bearish
$SUI currently at 1.267, +8.1% in 24h, I lean bearish at this level.
The market is trading on unlocking news from over 8 hours ago: 2Z, SUI, ENA have large unlocks next week, with 2Z alone about $114 million. Despite the rumors, $SUI rose from 1.1995 to 1.2648 (+5.44%), I treat this as a high-level divergence.
First, the daily RSI is 73.2, overbought, chasing +8.1% is not appropriate.
Second, OI is down -1.46% from yesterday's record, price rose but positions didn't follow, a short squeeze; funding rate 1.186e-05 is neutral, bulls lack ammo.
Third, the broader market shows high-level divergence and pullback, 55/19 breadth supports heat, but US crypto concept stocks average -2.26%, overseas markets show weakness first.
Resistance above: 1.276
Support below: 1.137
If the rebound at 1.276 fails to hold, expect a drop to 1.137; MACD golden cross for 7 days is a counter-evidence, bulls are not completely dead if 1.137 holds.
Directly turning bearish. Enter short at current price 1.267, stop loss above at 1.2881, first target 1.1543, break to continue at 1.137.
Watching the market, follow me for signals.
$SUI $BTC