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$XAU
Current price 4156.9, 24h -0.02%
Gold plunged to 4082.2 last night and has been slowly climbing back today.
48-hour script unfolded:
10-13 21:00 High 4195.7
10-15 00:00 Bottom hit 4082.2
After the nail bottoming, the low points have been rising steadily,
now back to 4156.9,
recovering 65.8% of the 113.5-point drop.
Since daytime today, 12 consecutive 1H candles
closed above MA20 (4138.05),
short-term focus is indeed in repair.
But volume tells another story:
That 1H bottom hit had a full 22.54 million U,
recent two rebound candles only 7.55 million / 9.18 million U,
shrunk to 30-40%—buyers are hesitating.
Position is also indecisive:
Up to 48h high 4195.7 is only 0.93% away
Down back to 4082.2 requires a 1.8% drop
Both sides are close, the odds here are less than 2:1 for action.
Set conditions first:
① If 1H closes with volume above 4195.7 and the pullback does not break below
→ then go long, otherwise no move
② If 1H closes below 4138.05
→ this repair round is invalid, wait again
Neither condition met, watch and wait.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with core inflation also above expectations, putting full pressure on the Federal Reserve 😮💨. The market originally hoped for a pause in policy, but now the plan has to be reconsidered. My feeling is that the trouble is not how much higher it goes, but that inflation is too sticky; just after the hike, it might not be over yet. US Treasury yields continue to climb, risk assets inevitably frown, but bad news does not mean a crash; the key is whether buyers step in.
$BTC: First watch the 80,000 support line 🛡️. If it fails to reclaim 83,000–84,000, the rebound will be difficult; once support is lost, beware of retesting lower.
$ETH: Focus on 2,500 for Ethereum 🎯. Under Bitcoin’s pressure, ETH struggles to stand alone and must first reclaim key resistance; currently it has fallen below 2,400 again, which is indeed tough.
$ZEC: Stay cautious ⚠️. Watch 1,100 for support and 1,200 for rebound strength. It is more volatile and falls harder in a weak market.
My view: Inflation data is bearish, but don’t rush to short. First confirm BTC’s key levels, then see if ETH and ZEC can hold. Direction is unclear; don’t get thrown off by a single bearish candle, nor get overexcited by a rebound.
Personal opinion, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Last night CPI shocked the market, but BTC went against the trend?🤔
The US September CPI gave the market another lesson: overall 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations, with gasoline prices as the behind-the-scenes driver. The Fed's biggest headache, core inflation, remains stubborn as a rock. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, and normally, risk assets should tremble.
But the crypto market refuses to follow the script.
$BTC plunged sharply to 82,000 after the data, with a drop of only 1%-2%, and panic selling was scarce. $ETH was even more rebellious, falling then immediately bouncing back with a strong green candle, catching the bears off guard. The market logic seems to have changed its core: bad news is treated as good news, and good news actually hits the market.
The capital flow is even more interesting: the day before the CPI release, $BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $175 million; the ETH ETF ended a ten-day losing streak with a net inflow of $24.83 million, with Grayscale Mini ETH alone accounting for $16.72 million. Institutions haven't fled; instead, they quietly picked up chips amid macro panic.😏
So the question arises: will $BTC continue to test the bottom, or is it brewing a rebound? When bad news can't move the market and capital is still flowing in, the answer might already be written on the chart. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 正如昨日所说，BTC在81500附近出现止跌盘整后，在亚盘时段再次出现下杀，发起了近几周以来第三次向80000整数关口的进攻。在盘整阶段，现货合约虽均出现了部分吸收，但仍缺乏主动性买盘，酝酿下杀的情绪愈演愈烈，随后在亚盘时段同步下杀，然而80500附近仍存在极强的承接资金，随后由空头回补推动价格再次回到81500附近，市场开始围绕81000附近继续盘整。 值得注意的是，数周以来合约端存在一种现象，就是币本位资金始终保持较高的多头敞口，在推动和吸收方面均起到很大的作用，而U本位更具情绪化，杠杆的推动和出清更为突出。然而几次大幅度的下杀合约端均由币本位资金主动开仓向下发起进攻，U本位虽也有部分资金配合下杀，但整体仍是被出清的一方。 虽然价格近期呈现摧枯拉朽、势不可挡的态势向下，但背后的资金结构仍未展示出明显的空头结构，甚至当价格第三次来到80000关口，空头面临的处境要比多头更复杂。故我已将全部的空头头寸回补，因为目前的情况无法支撑我判断市场在80000关口的决定，到底是快速向下完成流动性的狩猎随后迅速拉回开启新一轮上涨；还是在低位空头再次大举开仓进攻，延续空头趋势，这些都要等待市场给出答$ETH $BTC single-day net outflow of 31.44 million, BlackRock and Fidelity concentrated selling.
Just slightly accumulated the previous day, decisively took profits and exited when CPI negative news landed, institutions only made tentative layouts with extremely strict risk control.
In contrast, $ETH only slightly outflowed 51,900, almost zero volatility.
Price dropped to a low of 2315, institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, observing the situation waiting for direction.
$SOL's trend is even more representative, small outflows for eight consecutive days, today's selling pressure is almost exhausted.
The current main force driving the dump is no longer ETF institutions, but a stampede of longs inside the market.
The core issue in the market now: long sentiment has not been cleared.
SOL long-short ratio remains as high as 2.68, a large number of long positions have not stopped losses, the chain liquidation scenario is not yet over.
The current decline is purely a long-killing emotional sell-off, not institutional escape.
I have always maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, do not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure is fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.$BTC is approaching $84K again, but I think the macro picture is more telling than the bounce.
Bitcoin gained 1.5% after Fed’s John Williams suggested no further rate hikes may be needed in 2027.
The recovery spread across markets:
- $ZEC: +7%
- $SOL and $DOGE: +2.5%
- $ETH: +2%
- Asian equities also rebounded
But Williams hasn’t ruled out another hike this year.
And with Brent crude near $106, inflation risks are still very much alive.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargingThe entire market is panicking to find a bottom, but institutions remain calm and show no signs of panic throughout.
Yesterday's ETF fund data revealed the most authentic market truth at present.
$BTC had a net outflow of 31.44 million in a single day, with BlackRock and Fidelity concentrating their sell-offs.
After a slight accumulation the previous day, institutions decisively took profits and exited once the CPI bearish news landed, only making tentative layouts with extremely strict risk control.
In contrast, $ETH only saw a slight outflow of 51,900, with almost zero volatility.
The price dropped to a low of 2315, but institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, instead observing and waiting for direction throughout.
$SOL's trend is even more representative, with small outflows for eight consecutive days and selling pressure nearly exhausted today.
The current main force behind the price dump is no longer ETF institutions but a full-scale long liquidation within the market.
The core issue in the market now: bullish sentiment has not been cleared.
The long-short ratio of SOL remains as high as 2.68, with a large number of long positions not stopped out, and the chain liquidation scenario is not yet over.
The current decline is purely a sentiment-driven long liquidation, not an institutional exit.
I have consistently maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, one does not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure is fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Last night, CPI exceeded expectations, and BTC dropped from 84,000 to 80,168. I checked the on-chain data; Strive bought $235 million worth during the crash, acquiring 2,822 BTC, pushing their total holdings to a new high. BlackRock's Q3 digital asset scale reached 79.6 billion, up 63% quarter-over-quarter. Now, looking at retail investors: $1.716 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 85% of which were long positions, with $525 million liquidated in just the last hour. Once the 81,500 ETF cost line breaks, panic selling erupts, with everyone rushing to cut losses. On one side, institutions are scooping up hundreds of millions during the crash; on the other, retail investors are cutting losses below their cost lines. At the same price, some are buying, some are selling—the difference lies in who is looking at next month and who is looking at next year. You might say, "Institutions have more money and aren't afraid of drops." But Strive's $235 million purchase is real money, not paper. They dare to buy at 80,000 because they've done the math—this price is cheap relative to next year's halving cycle and ETF inflows. You're selling at 81,500 because you only see the candlestick falling and don't see institutions buying. ahr999 is now at 0.5165, still a bit away from the bottom-fishing range (below 0.45). Historically, every time it reached this position, a good market followed. But the premise is you have bullets left—not shooting all your bullets at 81,500.$SOXL
Current price 100.89, 24h -19.38%
The semiconductor sector took a heavy hit, down 20% in one day.
The 48-hour chart clearly shows:
High at 130.86 (Oct 14 08:00) steadily dropping to 99.19 (just now),
A 24.2% cut in range, now only 1.69% above the floor.
Rebound? Only a 5.37% correction, not really a recovery.
The sell-off on the 1H candle had a volume of 34.54 million U,
which is 2.81 times the previous candle.
This scale is not profit-taking, it's a panic exit.
MA20 is at 105.70, price is 4.77% below it—
A clear bearish setup, any pullback is just an opportunity to get in.
I’m not chasing, just waiting for two triggers:
① If the 1H pullback fails to close above 105.70 (MA20)
→ Short, stop loss at 108, target 99.19
R:R 2.8 : 1
② If the 1H close breaks below 99.19 directly
→ Follow the trend short, stop loss at 102.5, target 92
R:R 2.2 : 1
Invalidation level:
If the 1H closes back above 105.70 and the next candle holds,
both conditions invalidate the setup, switch to sideways view.
Currently too close to the floor, don’t rush either trigger.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Folks, at 8:30 PM tonight, a bunch of macro data will be released again. This is another big test after the CPI.
Look at this data chart, all key points.
First, September retail sales month-over-month. Previous value was 1.10%, expected to drop directly to 0.30%. Consumption is set to cool down significantly. If it really drops this much, it means American consumers really have no money to spend, which is good for inflation but will also trigger panic about economic cooling.
Second, September PPI year-over-year previous value was 5.40%, expected to drop to 5.3%, but the month-over-month rate is expected to rise to 0.50%. Inflation stickiness remains; pressure on the production side is not fully relieved.
Third, initial jobless claims are expected at 200,000, slightly up from the previous value. Cooling in the job market is a consensus.
Adding the New York Fed manufacturing index expected to rebound, overall it looks like the economy is cooling down, but inflation is not dead yet.
Yesterday, CPI surged to 3.7%, higher than expected, which already pushed US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations up, causing high-level stocks like SanDisk and Micron to be collectively hammered. If tonight’s data shows consumption and employment weakening significantly, then the "weak economy" logic will outweigh "high inflation," easing rate hike pressure and allowing Bitcoin to catch a breather. If retail sales and PPI both rebound beyond expectations, then trouble arises; stagflation panic will directly drag Bitcoin down hard.
In terms of trading, before 8:30 PM tonight, don’t take heavy positions or bet on a one-sided move. Hold steady with low-position chips if you have them; if you’re empty-handed, wait for the data to land and see the market’s first reaction before deciding. SanDisk’s high-level pullback isn’t over yet, Bitcoin is also grinding near 83,000, and with macro uncertainty, no one should get ahead of themselves.As soon as the CPI was released, the market immediately turned sour. Expected 3.6, actual 3.7, no cut but a rise instead, US stocks dropped 1.8 points, the night session fell another 1 point, Korean stocks crashed during the day, with SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron all plunging, and crypto also took a hit. The only thing still stable is gold, supported by central bank buying worldwide, making it hard to fall in the short term.
What really makes the market nervous is not the data itself, but the renewed expectations of rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in October surged from 19% to 27% in one day. As long as this number keeps rising, a sword will hang over risk assets.
My view: the drop is not entirely bad. Semiconductors fall first, bubbles get squeezed first, risks are released early; Bitcoin has already risen through two waves, so a pullback is actually healthier. As long as the rate hike probability before the FOMC at the end of the month doesn't exceed 50% and oil prices can retreat, this adjustment looks more like a third chance to get in rather than a reversal downward.
$BTC
#CPI#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Second, full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects an upgrade from "over 40%" to mid-40%, with Q4 USD revenue up 11% quarter-on-quarter. Whether AI orders show marginal weakening will be revealed in the earnings call.📊 CPI data is a bit hot, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen from 18% to 29%, $BTC is still tugging around $81,000, the market is a bit chaotic. RSI is only 36.6, sentiment is weak. The $82,883 level above has been tested 15 times, held 6 times, broken 7 times, and no reaction 2 times; this resistance is also visible on the 1-hour chart, and it's the level I'm watching. The support below at $80,478 has been tested 5 times, held 4 times, broken once, just falling within the densely stacked stop-loss area between $79,832–$80,478. Breaking below here is likely to trigger a wick sweep, which is a liquidity sweep, not accumulation. Open interest rose 3.2% in 24 hours, but the price dropped 0.8%, indicating shorts are adding positions, not taking profits. If it stands above $82,883, this is invalidated, so the position is cautious. Do you think this wave will first sweep the shorts or directly break down? #OKXTraderVoices Ultimately, only looking at this quarter's financial report: I judge that Tesla's Q3 2026 financial report is more likely to be below market expectations.
Below expectations: 60%
Meet expectations: 25%
Above expectations: 15%
Referring to the latest forecasts, the market consensus GAAP EPS is about $0.43–$0.45, with revenue around $27.79 billion–$27.9 billion. Analysts have recently been continuously lowering profit expectations, and Zacks' model does not support a clear judgment of earnings beating expectations.
Zacks
+2
The two numbers I focus on most are: whether EPS is below $0.43, and whether the automotive gross margin is below about 17.3%. If both weaken simultaneously, I will be more confident in judging the financial report as below expectations. Ultimately, only looking at this quarter's financial report: I judge that Tesla's Q3 2026 financial report is more likely to be below market expectations. 📊 Netflix Earnings Preview: Revenue Is Not the Focus, Profit Margin Is the Key!
The market expects $NFLX Q3 revenue to grow about 12% year-over-year, but the real focus is on the profit margin guidance: 33.2%, higher than last year's 28.2%.
This indicates that Netflix is shifting from simply competing for subscribers to improving monetization efficiency per user.
⚠️ But the higher the expectations, the harder it is to beat them!
📉 Profit margins falling short of expectations and unclear advertising business guidance could trigger after-hours sell-offs.
📈 If ad revenue accelerates and profit margins remain solid, the market has reason to stay bullish.
Tech stock sentiment is fragile; good earnings don’t necessarily mean the stock price will rise. Don’t blindly bet on direction—wait for the data to land before making judgments!
#Netflix #NFLX #USStocks #EarningsAnalysis #DailyOrbit📊 Netflix's advertising business: what really matters is not layoffs, but monetization capability!
Whether $NFLX's advertising business can become a second growth curve depends on these 5 key dimensions:
✅ User side: ad package penetration rate, monthly active users, churn rate
💰 Revenue side: advertising ARPU, CPM, inventory sell-through rate, revenue growth rate
🤖 Product side: ad pause, live sports, AI advertising tools
🌐 Channel side: DSP integration, programmatic trading, ad pre-sales
⚠️ Risk side: ad budget contraction, excessive frequency, CTV competition
Key logic: user growth is just the foundation; advertising monetization efficiency determines the long-term potential of the business.
Next focus is whether ad revenue can accelerate and whether growth can convert into profit.📈
⚠️ For information organization only, not investment advice.
#Netflix #NFLX #USStockAnalysis #DailyOrbit #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure. South Korea's KOSPI dropped nearly 8% at its lowest point intraday, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the decline, becoming the hardest hit in this round of global tech stock adjustments.
The decline is due to multiple negative factors resonating: First, the previous US CPI exceeded expectations, leading the market to raise expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further, suppressing valuations of high-valued tech assets; Second, the market continues to debate the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, with cautious remarks from executives at Broadcom and Intel, causing funds to start questioning the long-term demand for HBM and memory chips; Third, ChangXin's 4F² DRAM technology breakthrough.
It is important to distinguish: this is a repricing of high AI growth expectations, not a direct collapse of industry fundamentals. HBM long-term contract orders remain full in the short term. The drop is more about a sell-off after large prior gains and high valuations. The Korean stock market has a special structure with a very high semiconductor weighting, so its volatility is significantly greater than other indices. Panic sentiment spreads through Asia-Pacific, dragging down US semiconductor futures and Nasdaq futures simultaneously, forming a global tech chain linked sell-off.
Transmission to the crypto market: this signals a cooling of risk appetite. Weakness in the Nasdaq and computing power sectors easily pressures high-beta assets like BTC and ETH, amplifying short-term volatility. But this is emotional contagion, not driven by crypto fundamentals. It depends on whether the Nasdaq can stabilize afterward. If panic continues to spread, crypto is likely to follow the decline; if it is just short-term emotional venting, after digestion it will return to macro data fundamentals. $BTC $ETH $SNDK AAVE and ETH both plummeted, my short positions have finally paid off!
$AAVE short entered at 163.71, current price 149, floating profit 448%! $ETH short is even more outrageous, floating profit 1262%! This drop has broken below MA5, MA10, and the Bollinger Bands middle line on the daily chart, the bearish trend is fully established.
But don't get carried away. ETH margin is only 0.02U left; such a "thin position" is most vulnerable to spike rebounds, even a technical correction could trigger instant liquidation. AAVE's RSI is also near oversold, continuing to chase shorts has very low cost-effectiveness.
My plan: take half profit on AAVE, set trailing stop loss on the remainder; close ETH fully at market price to lock in gains. With high leverage, profits belong to the market, principal belongs to yourself. If you've caught this wave, don't be greedy for the last bite.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $MU
Current price 876.95, 24h -7.36%
This cold splash is quite heavy.
Opened at 946.6, dropped to 865.02 in one day,
48-hour range hit a new low directly,
From the high of 967.98, that's -10.6%.
The current position is awkward:
Only 1.36% above the floor at 865.02,
Still 1.7% below MA20 (891.87).
Can't break above the moving average, today's candle can only be considered a breather after a sharp drop.
The dumping 1H volume was 7.62 million U,
1.6 times the previous candle — sellers are serious.
I set the conditions strictly:
① If 1H rebounds but fails to hold above 891.87 (MA20)
→ Short, stop loss at 900, target 865.02
R:R 3.3 : 1
② If 1H closes back above 891.87 and the next candle doesn't fall back
→ Cancel ①, switch to recovery mode, first target 952
Invalidation level is clear:
1H close below 865.02, all conditions are overturned and redrawn.
None of these have triggered yet, so I remain on hold.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)There’s nothing much left to say; just waiting for oil prices to take off. Sharing my own analysis: this should be the last and most intense wave driven by geopolitics. Brent crude could reach 130 to 150 and sustain a high-level oscillation for a period. The 10-year US Treasury yield will approach or exceed 6. Then, under pressure, there should be a temporary easing of navigation restrictions. US Treasuries will plummet, and oil prices will enter a deep correction. Brent could fall to 70 to 80, possibly dipping below 70 intraday. When oil prices fall, gold, silver, and especially US stocks are likely to hit new highs, but this is just a false prosperity. Subsequently, oil prices will no longer be driven by geopolitics but will switch to supply and demand factors. The trigger point should be that US-Iran talks fall short of expectations, or even if an agreement is signed, it can be torn up at any time. Currently, global crude oil inventories have already fallen below the minimum operational threshold. This process should take about half a year, after which oil prices will usher in a real main rise above 200. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $SKHY South Korean stock market plunged triggering a technical circuit breaker, SKHY plummeted 11% in one day, funds in the storage sector collectively exited, contract fund data shows a total net outflow of $10.3 million from 5 minutes to 1 hour!
Coupled with last night's CPI data bearishness, rising expectations of rate hikes, soaring US Treasury yields, high market cap tech stocks and the storage sector collectively lost market value.
There is also the most fatal long-term bearish factor: domestic storage technology has made comprehensive breakthroughs, and this storage industry will become increasingly competitive. Technology will no longer be monopolized by SKHY alone, impacting Hynix's earnings.
Many investors think the drop is enough to buy the dip, but the circuit breaker is only a temporary halt, not the end of the decline. All bearish factors have not fully played out yet. The double resonance of high interest rates and industry competition bearishness means all rebounds are traps; shorting is the way to go #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations and hit a new record high, fundamentally driven by the realization of AI computing power demand and the monopoly premium of advanced processes. Net profit for this quarter surged 68.7% year-on-year, marking six consecutive quarters of record-breaking profits. The core drivers are the explosion of orders for AI accelerators and server chips, combined with the continuous ramp-up of high-margin processes like 2nm and 3nm. Apple’s mobile chip orders underpin consumer electronics demand, creating a dual-engine boost for performance.
However, risks behind the impressive results cannot be ignored: First, high capital expenditure pressure, with expansion and US factory construction raising costs, and the ramp-up of the new 2nm process will temporarily dilute gross margins; second, performance is highly tied to overseas AI major clients, and if cloud providers cut capital spending, order elasticity will quickly decline; third, the global semiconductor supply chain restructuring and domestic chip manufacturing catch-up will squeeze its exclusive premium in the long term. The short-term AI supply-demand gap remains, and Q4 guidance remains optimistic; in the mid to long term, this ultra-high profitability is not a permanent dividend, with the advanced process arms race and geopolitical risks hanging as variables. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $CL The Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Chai Ge will discuss the subsequent crude oil trend 👀
Although a short-term agreement was reached with Oman, its implementation still depends on the negotiations between the US and Iran. The current confrontation has escalated into high-frequency, high-intensity attacks on ships, coupled with the spread of regional risks.
The war situation continues to erupt, with the US military steadily increasing troops and attacks becoming more frequent. A few days ago, Trump stated that there would be no large-scale military strikes on Iran before the midterm elections, but now he has changed his stance abruptly.
The outbreak of war has caused shipping and insurance costs to soar more than tenfold, and export volumes are decreasing. In the short term, Chai Ge believes that US-Iran negotiations are very difficult to continue, and crude oil remains bullish. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Inflation risk has not yet been eliminated — inflation verification, PPI data + retail data to be released soon! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Yesterday's unexpectedly strong CPI inflation accelerated the market's pricing of Fed rate hike policies and inflation, while also putting risk markets under pressure again. However, inflation and rate hike risks have not disappeared. At 20:30 later, the PPI will once again verify the CPI data. Previously, PMI data already showed that inflationary pressure has transmitted to the upstream supply chain, and the PPI can show whether this inflation has transmitted to the corporate level. According to current data expectations: Lower than expected is positive, meaning inflation has not transmitted to the corporate level, thus weakening the impact on the consumer side. Meeting expectations is neutral to dovish, meaning September inflation is still mainly driven by a one-time energy shock. Current data is insufficient to prove inflation has transmitted to the corporate level, which is good for downstream consumption and positive for risk markets. Exceeding expectations is hawkish data, further deepening market concerns about inflation and rate hike probability pricing, which is negative for risk markets. Therefore, tonight's PPI focus is whether core PPI exceeds 0.3% and whether service PPI continues to rise; these are two key factors determining inflationary pressure. Additionally, retail data will be released simultaneously. Weaker retail expectations are good for current inflation concerns, but should not be overinterpreted, as weaker retail only reduces demand-driven inflation pressure, while the greatest current inflation pressure comes from energy. Therefore, PPI and retail data should be considered together. If PPI meets#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 🔥 TSMC delivers a historic performance, but will the market keep rising? Not necessarily!
💰 In Q3 2026, TSMC's revenue reached NT$1.494 trillion, a 50.9% year-over-year increase, hitting a new high. More importantly, the company raised its full-year USD revenue growth forecast to 44%. Demand for AI chips remains strong, making this report truly impressive.
⚠️ But folks, stock trading is never just about past results; it’s about whether the future can be even better. When the market has already priced in AI growth, advanced process demand, and earnings beating expectations, good news alone may not be enough to push the stock price higher.
📊 What really matters next is management’s outlook on AI demand, advanced process capacity, capital expenditures, and profit margins. If future growth guidance continues to exceed expectations, the market will have new room for imagination; if the outlook isn’t surprising enough, we might see a sell-the-news reaction.
🧠 Remember: good earnings don’t guarantee a stock price rise; the key is whether actual performance can surpass the standards the market has already set.
So, folks, do you think TSMC’s report can keep fueling the AI rally, or has the market already priced in these expectations? Let’s discuss in the comments!$STRK unlocking has no impact, the whales have already fully controlled the marketOn October 15, five minutes after the Seoul stock market opened, the SIDECAR circuit breaker mechanism was triggered. Programmatic sell orders were forcibly paused. The KOSPI plummeted over 7% that day, approaching -8% intraday. It was the sixth consecutive bearish candle. Samsung Electronics fell 9.4%, SK Hynix dropped over 11%, and the combined market value lost by the two companies equaled a quarter of the Korean stock market's gains for the year. Over in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.12%. Kioxia plunged 13%, SoftBank dropped 8.5%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.75%, and the CSI 300 fell 1.4%. The Korea Financial Services Commission urgently convened a quadripartite meeting. The Finance Minister, Central Bank Governor, Financial Supervisory Service Chairman, and Financial Supervisory Service Director were all present, concluding with four words: "All available tools." The last time there was an emergency response at this level was in August 2024, triggered by a global flash crash caused by yen arbitrage trading. But that incident lasted one day; this time it has lasted five days. Since the June peak, the KOSPI has dropped 30%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has declined for six consecutive trading days. What exactly happened? October 10: The 4F² Bomb from ChangXin ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) President Cao Kanyu announced at the Shanghai Semiconductor Forum that the 4F² architecture DRAM has made "critical progress," with DDR5 server memory modules to be launched by the end of 2026. 4F² is the next-generation storage unit for DRAM #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC Q3 Net Profit Hits Record High: The "Shovel Seller" Dividend in the AI Computing Era
TSMC's Q3 financial report once again proves that the semiconductor cycle has not receded but has entered a structurally prosperous phase dominated by AI. Revenue reached 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, and net profit was 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-on-year. The profit growth rate far exceeded revenue growth, indicating simultaneous improvement in profitability quality and pricing power.
Breaking it down, the growth engine is clear: the 2nm process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes total 79%. This means TSMC not only secured AI chip orders but also locked in high-end customers through technological differentiation. Flagship products from giants like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple almost all rely on its advanced capacity, with AI demand continuously translating into solid performance.
What is more noteworthy is the signal behind the "better-than-expected" results. The market originally worried about weak consumer electronics and overseas capacity expansion dragging down gross margins, but the financial report shows AI chip demand is sufficient to offset headwinds. As the global leader in wafer foundry, TSMC's performance is a thermometer of the investment heat in AI infrastructure.
However, the record high also comes with concerns: geopolitical issues, overseas factory costs, and high capital expenditures for advanced processes remain long-term challenges. But in the short term, as long as the AI computing arms race continues, TSMC remains the biggest "shovel seller." This financial report is not only a summary of Q3 but also strong evidence that the AI era dividend is still ongoing.
#OKXICE向SEC申请推出代币化股票交易平台 $OKB plummeted today, so why do I dare to buy the dip?
Because its potential is huge. I'm not just talking about X Layer, but also OKX's current reform direction.
Last year, the total supply was fixed at 21 million, solving its scarcity issue; this year, the reform direction of financial infrastructure addresses the problem of actual usage:
1. Reassigning fee discounts and VIP privileges back to OKB, and these must be unavailable without holding it;
2. Introducing OKB into DeFi staking and liquidity scenarios, though staking does not equal net demand, as leverage and liquidation risks remain;
3. Clarifying the value return mechanism so that all position holders can benefit from the development of the OKX ecosystem.
The third point is what I care about most. There is currently no evidence that OKX will revert, but I believe that under the trend led by $HYPE, which buys back tokens with 99% of profits, and with CEO Xu always viewing $BNB as the biggest competitor, OKX will eventually catch up.
Which privilege do you most want OKX to add to OKB? Fee discounts, ecosystem qualifications, more DeFi, or a buyback mechanism? Feel free to share in the comments.[Old Chive Observation] Uniswap launches new trading mechanism! ETH/USDC fees are no longer fixed, and the value logic of $UNI is also worth revisiting
This time, Uniswap did not release a roadmap but deployed new features directly on the Ethereum mainnet.
On October 14, Uniswap v4's VolatilePair Hook officially went live, initially supporting ETH/USDC. Unlike traditional pools that charge fixed fees, the new mechanism adjusts buy and sell fees separately based on price changes.
Why design it this way?
For example: if ETH suddenly surges on other trading platforms but the price in the Uniswap pool hasn't caught up, arbitrageurs might exploit the temporary price difference to buy cheap ETH. After the pool price is pulled back, part of the value has already been taken by arbitrage trades, causing losses to liquidity providers.
The idea behind VolatilePair is to let fees follow market changes and add temporary fees to some price-reversing trades, aiming to keep part of the value within the liquidity pool.
Uniswap officials state that its volatile trading pairs have accumulated over $500 billion in transaction volume this year. If the new mechanism can improve LP returns in real trading, its subsequent adoption could influence the design of more pools.
DeFi competition is shifting from fighting for liquidity to competing for the value created by liquidity. Whoever can keep funds longer has a better chance to build a long-term advantage.Capital showdown: BTC patch-up, ETH sabotage, SOL bargain hunting💸
$BTC
24h contract net inflow 194 million, spot +44.7 million, short-term double red. But weekly still running 2.8 billion outflow, monthly leaking 5.3 billion, 12h withdrew another 102 million. Short-term looks like end-of-day replenishment, temperature just warmed a bit, don’t mistake it for a reversal.🧪
$ETH
Contract +57.55 million, spot -110 million. Contract trying to bet on the bottom, spot exiting, no handshake between the two. Spot keeps selling, contract keeps adding hard, usually gets dragged down by spot. Charging now risks getting hit from both sides.✋
$SOL
Contract -16.2 thousand, basically flat; spot +33.39 million, someone quietly accumulating. Bullish but no leverage, slowly hoarding spot is safer. Weekly spot +20.06 million, the only mainstream to turn positive.🌱
Summary: one patching up, one tearing each other apart, one bargain hunting. But weekly and monthly still net outflows, big money hasn’t dared to go all in. There’s a shadow of a rebound, reversal is still early.🕯️#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $SOL dropped from around 120 in early October back to 102. On the hourly chart, there are three significant volume spikes at the lows, which are more intuitive to observe together than on the daily chart.
On October 9 at 1 AM, the low was 105.71 with a trading volume of $34.2 million that hour. On October 13 at 8 AM, the low was 101.69 with $45.8 million traded. On October 15 at 10 AM, the low was 100.62 with $50.1 million traded. The median hourly trading volume over the past 10 days is $7.4 million, so these three spikes are more than 4 to nearly 7 times that amount.
During the same period, there was no crowding on the contract side. The average funding rate over the last 30 periods was only 0.0028%, with 6 periods negative and only 4 hitting the 0.01% cap. Leverage was not pushing prices up aggressively; the volume spikes were entirely due to price drops.
Each low was lower than the last, and volume increased each time, yet the price never fell below 100. After the first two lows, the price closed 3 hours later at 109.88 and 107.48, which are 3.9% and 5.7% above the lows respectively. The most recent low moved slower, closing 3 hours later at 101.47, only 0.8% above the low, with the current price at 102.42.
The 100 to 102 range has absorbed three volume-driven dips, so the bullish bias remains unchanged when price retests this area.
Looking at the hourly chart during the pullbacks, volume spikes with dips that close above 102 indicate buying hours. If the volume spike closes below 100, this area no longer acts as support.$AKE is about to start a new major upward wave again?
As one of the most volatile altcoins this year, it has brought joy to some and sorrow to others. Today it’s starting to move again. I think the main reason is the large token unlock scheduled for the 21st. Many previous rallies were driven by token unlocks attracting short sellers to enter and get squeezed.
Whether it can continue the previous pattern this time is uncertain, but there is definitely selling pressure above, and many trapped holders. You can consider lightly chasing it; who knows, maybe a miracle will happen? $BTC
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH Three consecutive bearish candles, but the reasons for the decline are not the same.
On the same day of decline, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have their own sources of selling pressure.
For $BTC, it's a sentiment retreat:
No large holders collectively withdrawing on-chain, and there is still support near the 400-day moving average.
For $ETH, it's about capital outflow:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are migrating out, indicating holders are actively reducing positions.
For $SOL, the pressure is on the contract side:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down, while spot outflows are relatively limited.
In other words, the one that fell sharply did not see much chip turnover.
The one that fell steadily is where money is truly flowing out.
#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？
#$BTC $ETH Tonight's script of "having to kill another wave" is still playing out, and this OP trade is the harshest footnote. Just like BTC and ETH, the rebound is all fake moves, and the altcoin focus keeps shifting downward. Making big money relies on courage, securing profits relies on cheapness, and maneuvering a sevenfold floating profit must be an art.
$OP 50x short position +727.90%! Opened at 0.15366 short, currently marked at 0.13129, this wave is taking off directly (downward) 💰
Position is near 0.131, the previous low support zone. OP, as a highly volatile altcoin, with shallow order book + 50x leverage, even a slight reverse pullback (1.5% to 0.133) is enough to swallow a large amount of floating profit, making the tail-end cost-performance extremely low.
Stop loss pushed to breakeven, core profits secured. Current price has closed 95% of the position, base holdings ≤5% nailed to the cost line. Watch 0.131 and 0.128: if volume breaks below 0.128, base holdings will be liquidated; if volume shrinks with stagnation or upward spikes, all exit.
This kind of altcoin drop indicates the market has no bottom at all, funds are all flowing to safer assets, and those telling stories are all getting hit. Before tomorrow night's CPI, don't hold overnight on this kind of high-leverage bull trap; if 84000 can't hold and 2580 can't recover, the bears are not over. 50x with sevenfold floating profit is indeed tempting, but the closer it gets, the more you have to control your hands and not be devoured by greed. Also echoing the previous survival rule: spot survives on cycles, no matter how much you earn on contracts, one spike can wipe you out; with proper risk control, you live longer. This trade is a textbook-level $ZEC. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
I think the most noteworthy aspect of TSMC's earnings report is not the profit figures, but that the AI industry chain's profitability is being revalidated.
$TSM's report this time shows that AI demand is no longer just an order story but has truly converted into profits. Advanced process nodes continue to scale, with strong demand for 3nm and 5nm, combined with the expansion of CoWoS advanced packaging capacity. TSMC is simultaneously benefiting from chip manufacturing and packaging upgrades.
The most direct beneficiaries are $NVDA and $AMD. AI accelerators keep iterating, increasingly relying on advanced processes and packaging, and $AVGO's custom AI chips also require high-end manufacturing capacity.
But there is a problem here: TSMC making more money does not mean the entire AI industry chain's profit margins will rise in sync.
Chip design companies have to bear higher manufacturing costs, and cloud providers face pressures from data centers, power, and depreciation. Whether AI investment can continue ultimately depends on whether customers can recoup their investments.
I am more focused on the Q4 guidance, gross margin, and capital expenditures. If order growth continues to cover expansion costs, $TSM's profitability still has support.
As for $MU and $SKHYNIX, the HBM demand logic remains, but the storage price cycle needs separate judgment.
This round of AI market has entered a new phase: previously it was about who had more orders; now it's about who can turn orders into real profits.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise full-year revenue growth forecasts and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against the exhaustion of positive momentum
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CPI超预期我认，但我不按头条3.7%做方向。
The overall year-on-year CPI for September is 3.7%, only 0.1 higher than expected, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations, with gasoline being the main contributor. What unsettles me is the core: year-on-year rising from 2.4% to 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, which cannot be offset by a single sub-item. This is not a misreading of oil prices, nor is inflation out of control yet.
The probability of another 25 basis point hike in October once reached 43.7%. This is a repricing, not a final decision. September just had one hike, with rates between 3.75%–4.00%, and the market is debating whether the second hike will be in October or December.
Tonight at 20:30, I only watch two numbers. PPI month-on-month expected around 0.5%–0.6% (previous 0.4%), core month-on-month about 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Year-on-year 5.4% or so cannot be directly compared with CPI. Retail sales expected month-on-month 0.3%–0.4%, August was 1.2%.
My dividing line: core PPI not below 0.3%, retail still not bad, rate hikes remain on the table, I do not consider risk assets a buying opportunity. Core PPI returning to 0.2% or lower, retail clearly cooling, September core more like noise, October holding position remains the baseline.
$BTC I do not consider a safe haven. When rate expectations rise, it follows liquidity, not gold. No adding positions before data, nor preset price points. In the dialogue on the 16th with Walsh, I only listen to whether he acknowledges this round is mainly about energy.Just took a look at TSMC's Q3 data: revenue up 50.9% year-over-year, net profit up 68.7% year-over-year, reaching 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars. The performance is impeccable, but the market dropped about 2.5%. The core reasons are threefold:
Q3 revenue data was already clearly announced in advance, so today is just the good news being realized.
Q3 gross margin guidance is 65%-67%, slightly lower than Q2's 67.7%, which became an excuse for bears to sell off.
The current capital market focus is entirely on Q4 revenue guidance and the upward revision of capital expenditures, all waiting for the next signal on AI capacity expansion.
The fundamentals are very solid; in the short term, it's just a battle of sentiment and profit-taking. Let's first watch where this pullback stabilizes.
$TSM $xTSM
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $ZEC, like many cryptocurrencies before, had slogans such as "a better Bitcoin," but eventually faded away. Most of them only tweaked a few parameters without real demand, relying purely on hype stories; once the hype died down, no one used them, and they gradually went to zero.
What makes ZEC different:
It focuses on zero-knowledge proof privacy transactions, with the same total supply of 21 million, occupying a unique niche rather than simply replicating Bitcoin.
It has institutional products like ETFs from Grayscale, the network has been running for many years, the underlying code is stable, and the community and miner groups have always existed.
So, purely from the chain itself, it’s very hard for it to go completely to zero in the short term.
But it has two unavoidable huge risks, which also suppress its ability to ever replace Bitcoin:
1. Regulation is the biggest looming threat
Privacy coins have always been a regulatory focus. Many exchanges in Europe and the US already plan to delist privacy coins.
Bitcoin’s ledger is public, so regulators are relatively accepting; ZEC can achieve fully anonymous transactions, which regulators naturally reject. Institutional funds find it very difficult to enter on a large scale, so its network effect will never catch up to BTC.
2. Internal governance and security risks
There have been vulnerabilities in the Orchard protocol and incidents of the core development team collectively leaving, with early controversies over founder shares.
Its price rise largely depends on narrative; real daily payment demand is not as big as imagined. When the market rises, the privacy narrative is hyped; when the market falls, funds flee rapidly, causing extremely volatile swings.
Distinguish two things:
✅ Very hard to replace Bitcoin: Bitcoin has decades of network effect, institutional consensus, and reserve asset status that ZEC cannot take away.
⚠️ It won’t easily go to zero, but it can crash over 90%.
Going to zero means the network completely stops. But regulatory crackdowns and collective delisting by exchanges cause liquidity to dry up, pushing prices extremely low. Although the chain can still run, your coins are very hard to sell, which feels almost like going to zero.
Considering the current market:
Overall risk appetite has declined, putting pressure on all high-risk altcoins. ZEC surged earlier, with many profit-taking positions. Even if the privacy narrative sounds good, as long as US Treasury yields remain high, it’s hard for it to have an independent major bull market.
In summary:
ZEC won’t simply follow the old path of classic altcoins going straight to zero, but replacing Bitcoin is basically impossible. The biggest risk isn’t the project running away, but regulatory restrictions causing liquidity to vanish. Entering at a high price could lead to deep losses. #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 The most dangerous thing is not the floating profit shrinking, but that the ETH position should have been liquidated long ago, yet it is treated as if it's still alive. What you see is a floating profit of six million, or three high-leverage positions that could turn against you at any moment? When I look at this position chart, my first reaction is not envy, but a chill down my spine. Someone has put all their principal into three directions: BTC at 40x leverage, ETH at 25x, and HYPE at 10x, all fully invested. The nominal floating profit adds up to about 6.68 million USD, which sounds like fireworks exploding, but there is a fuse buried beneath the fireworks. Let's first look at the most fragile link. ETH opened at 2571.50, liquidation price at 2464.74, but the current price has already dropped below 2440. According to the rules, this position should theoretically have been liquidated long ago. The fact that it still appears on the account means either margin was added midway or there is a data delay. Either way, it shows one thing: this position is not surviving on risk control, but on continuous blood transfusions to stay alive. Now look at the funding fees. The three positions together have already burned about 900,000 USD, which is not a small amount. The biggest fear of high-leverage full positions is not being wrong on direction, but time being on the opposite side. Every day you wake up and get charged a fee, like rent, steadily eating away at your floating profit no matter how beautiful it looks. On the BTC side, the position opened at 81417, liquidation at 52379; 40x leverage means the price only needs to retrace a bit over 30% to hit the liquidation line. HYPE at 10x seems mild, but with 86,000 tokens involved, the depth and slippage of altcoins never give advance notice. What is the market trading now? On the surface, it's trend faith, but in reality, it's a bet that volatility won't suddenly spike. As long as the price holds or continues#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's Q3 earnings report just came out and it blew up, here are a few key takeaways👇
First, look at the data, exceeding expectations
Revenue was 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit was 763.1 billion TWD, soaring 68.7% year-over-year, directly crushing market expectations, with profits hitting record highs for six consecutive quarters.
Several signals to watch closely
The 2nm process already accounts for 8% of revenue, and advanced processes make up 79% overall. This shows TSMC is selling not volume, but a technological monopoly—products others can't make, which are expensive and hard to get.
AI chip demand is the real fundamental driver. Nvidia and AMD's heavy investments in expanding AI infrastructure have not slowed down; the giants competing for capacity means the AI sector's momentum is still rising.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
The performance of traditional tech leaders is the strongest macro anchor for the AI sector. TSMC's profit exceeding expectations indicates AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating, and the underlying logic of AI public chains, compute power tokens, and DePIN remains intact.
Previously, the market corrected and AI-related tokens dropped significantly; now, with fundamental data confirming the sector's momentum, it effectively provides a right-side confirmation signal.
But don't rush to go all in; watch two points next: one, whether TSMC's Q4 guidance will slow down; two, whether capital expenditures continue to rise, as overspending could squeeze profit margins.
In the short term, the AI sector will likely experience emotional pulses, but in the mid to long term, it depends on whether AI applications can produce killer products that push compute demand from the "infrastructure phase" to the "application phase." The kitchen's oil pot just started to emit the first wisp of blue smoke when an order came in from the front hall: Anthropic's main dish, with Q3 revenue reaching $16.8 billion, nearly 50% higher quarter-over-quarter, and for two consecutive quarters, it has turned a positive profit, with an operating margin just over 10%, and cash flow has also turned positive.
I've stood at this stove for twenty years and know exactly what these numbers feel like—this isn't a quick stir-fry just off the heat; it's a slow-cooked broth simmered for several hours, clear in color, with evenly distributed oil spots, and the saltiness perfectly balanced on the tongue's root. But don't rush to serve the dish; I need to taste the temperature first.
The quarter-over-quarter growth rate dropped compared to Q2, like the heat being turned down halfway—still boiling, but the bubbling force is clearly weaker than before. The commercial seasoning is well sprinkled, but the fuel under the stove—chips, data centers—is a bottomless money pit; if the fire is too high, the broth easily scorches at the edges. Whether adjusting profit and cash flow can cover the big pot of computing power costs is the key to whether this dish can be served.
As for that valuation rumored to be close to two trillion, I treat it as a private room reserved in advance by a guest. No matter how big the room is, if the dish can't be served, the guest will still turn hostile. From Q2 to Q3, growth slowed a bit; the dish is still cooking, but the seats in line are getting more crowded.
Looking next door at the linked target, the spiciness of that dish is fiercer than I expected. It's like the extra spicy chili I casually tossed into the pot—refreshing in the first few bites, but enough to have you clutching your stomach in the middle of the night. Many in the market now confuse the main dish and the chili: treating leverage as the staple and mainstream varieties as garnish. When this ratio is messed up, the taste is a disaster.
My rule is simple: the main dish should take up 70% of the plate, seasoning at most 20%, and the little bit of extra spicy chili is to awaken the tongue, not to settle accounts with the stomach. Whoever eats chili as a meal will be guarding the restroom at closing time.
Both pots are now burning simultaneously—one is the slow-cooked broth, fresh but costly to maintain; the other is chili oil, fragrant and pungent. The real test of skill isn't how thick the broth is simmered, but knowing when to reduce the heat and when to give way to the next dish. The timing of the fire is never written on the menu. #anthropicq3revenue16.8b#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
What I find most worth noting in TSMC's earnings report is not the phrase "exceeding expectations," but that profits grew faster than revenue.
Revenue increased by 50.9% year-over-year, while net profit rose by 68.7% year-over-year. Profit outpacing revenue means it's not just about selling more; each dollar earned is also more profitable. Advanced processes account for 79%, with 2nm just getting started but already making up 8%. The demand for AI chips is solidly reflected in the accounts.
Interestingly, despite such a strong report, $TSM and xTSM actually dipped slightly that day. The reason is easy to guess: Q3 revenue had already been announced in advance, so the good news was already priced in by the market. Now everyone is focused on two things: the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditures will continue to be raised.
My view is that "exceeding expectations" was already factored into the stock price before the report came out. What matters next is the guidance. If the guidance only meets expectations, the stock will likely move sideways in the short term; if capital expenditures are raised again, it means TSMC itself sees even further demand for AI."Midday Snapshot Before PPI" 🧊
$BTC: 81602, -2.51%, fee rate +0.0058%, open interest 52.4 billion. Price cooling down, leverage not cooling; 24h liquidations 198 million, mostly long buy orders. 💧
$ETH: 2384, -5.11%, fee rate +0.0029%, open interest 30.3 billion, liquidations 288 million, exceeding BTC. But Binance fee rate has dropped to -0.0013%, big money shifting first, small platform retail investors still adding positions. ⚠️
$SOL: 102.99, -3.95%, fee rate +0.0077%, highest in the market, open interest 6.69 billion, liquidations 31.61 million, 92% are longs. Not the worst drop, but the heaviest faith tax. 🔥
Conclusion: Fee rates still positive, longs not cleared; ETH fee rate turning negative, SOL longs densely liquidated, indicating smart money withdrawing, retail holding on. PPI at 20:30 tonight, no adding positions, control your hands. BTC breaking 81000 looks to 80000, ETH 2350, SOL 100. 🍵#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 BLUR 24h +17.84% is not a pump, it's the announcement-driven rally after OKX launched X-Perp on 10-13.
Fact chain: On 10-13 at 12:00, the announcement of BLURUSD X-Perp launch → stayed flat around 0.010 for over ten hours from midnight to noon → at 16:00 rose to 0.01048 → at 17:00 closed at 0.01177 (volume 100 million, previous 12 bars average volume 5.2 million) → at 18:00 closed at 0.01228 → at 19:00 currently 0.01233. Three 1H bars up +17.6%, volume increased about 20 times.
Why now? ① Two days after X-Perp launch, perp settled funds are in place, basis can be pulled; ② At 18:00 the market was falling (BTC -2.78%, median -6.4%), BLUR increased volume against the trend = funds picking weak to push strong. Announcement → settlement → pump is the standard three-step pattern for OKX launching X-Perp.
But 4H is not confirmed yet, 0.013 (today's high 0.01313) area is resistance. For those chasing in: who will take the position in the announcement rally?
Do you think BLUR will surge to 0.014 or consolidate back to 0.010? $BLUR ⚡ $BTC at 81,000 USD (400-day moving average) is the critical line between bulls and bears, with three tests of the same support zone on October 9, 12, and 15. Each touch triggered a quick rebound, but the rebound strength weakened progressively. Holding this level suggests a rebound; breaking it could see a drop to the 80,000 psychological level or even 78,000.
⚡ $ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, with early major whales who bought around 14 transferring 6,369 ETH (about 2,300) to exchanges, facing a dense sell wall resistance zone at 2,382 above.
⚡ $ZEC peaked at 1,698 and has fallen about 36%.
🔥 Macro: US September CPI year-on-year rose 3.7%, exceeding expectations (previous 3.4%), pushing the Fed's October rate hike probability up to 47% at one point. The Fear & Greed Index dropped sharply from 62 to 52, shifting the market mood from "greed" to "neutral."
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 That is a fifteen-story cantilever structure with its load-bearing column removed, the facade still draped with curtains of billion-dollar orders, yet the foundation is already leaking. On October 14th, CoreWeave's stock price plummeted by 15.46%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2032 briefly broke through the critical 15% structural red line—in construction terms, this means the client looks up from the ground and finds the main structure's settlement rate exceeds the design margin, so all subcontractors simultaneously start dismantling the scaffolding.
I must clarify one thing: order backlog is not the foundation; orders are just renderings. Having $10 billion in backlog contracts hanging there looks impressive, but it's merely a blueprint not yet poured. What truly determines whether this building can stand is the concrete—that is, whether computing power delivery can be converted into revenue on schedule, whether revenue can be converted into operating cash flow, and cash flow is the only thing that can repay the $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Carrying this amount on the books at the end of June is like building a super high-rise on soft soil with high leverage reinforcement. When interest rates rise, financing costs become lateral wind loads, and you have to recalculate every floor.
The leader says the market reaction is irrational. But structural engineering never accepts "irrational" as a defense. The wind won't stop blowing just because you believe you're stable. Long-term orders can indeed support debt repayment—provided that the four pillars of delivery pace, power allocation, rack installation rate, and customer fulfillment willingness are all in place simultaneously. If any one of these develops shear cracks, the internal force redistribution of the entire building will transfer pressure onto bondholders. A 15% yield is not about sentiment; it's the market reassessing the building's ultimate load-bearing capacity.
Hot inflation and weakness in the tech sector simultaneously reduce foundation bearing capacity and increase wind load values. At this time, all similar projects must be compared laterally: whose capital structure is cleaner, whose delivery curve is more verifiable, whose counterparties in orders have stronger credit. Financial pressure never rests on just one building; it transmits along supply and credit chains to adjacent plots, causing the entire development area's financing window to narrow simultaneously.
I never look at renderings when reviewing blueprints, only reinforcement diagrams and geological survey reports. The entire problem of this company can be summed up in one sentence: it signed contracts at the speed of design drawings but must repay debt at the speed of construction. #coreweavestockbonddrop$SKHYNIX Storage stocks haven't finished falling yet? Be careful when bottom fishing now, you might catch it halfway down!
Today a brother asked me, SanDisk has dropped so much, can we bottom fish now? $SNDK
My advice is clear: don't rush!
A big drop doesn't mean it's hit the bottom. Especially in the current market, blindly entering is very likely to catch it halfway down.
This round of weakness in the storage sector is not without reason. Domestic storage market competition pressure, emotional changes caused by early end of buybacks, plus continued pressure on the Korean storage sector stocks, the market funds have started to reassess the valuation of storage stocks.
Last night CPI data exceeded expectations again, the dollar strengthened, interest rate expectations heated up, and high valuation tech stocks face increased pressure.
From the market perspective, lows keep moving down, bears still dominate, and a clear stop-fall signal has not yet appeared.
So my thinking remains unchanged: don't rush to bottom fish for now, prioritize observing rebound shorting opportunities.
Don't always try to guess the lowest point. Until the trend reverses, cheap may only be relative.
Wait for a rebound, watch the resistance, confirm weakening, then consider entering. Opportunities are never lacking, the important thing is not to rush to prove you can catch the bottom when the trend is downward.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点