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$100 every day, buying the 12 most core tech companies globally
Some say the valuation is too high, some say AI is a bubble, some say Tesla is a casino.
I don't predict, I just dollar-cost average.
Today's list:
Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, Amazon, Apple,
AMD, Broadcom, Netflix, Oracle, Arm
Plan: Stick to it for 3000 days first, then look at the average cost
Public record beats perfect timing.
I will post when panicking, I will post when cutting losses, when making money...
I might say it's all part of the plan Woke up from a sleep, BTC at 83510, ETH at 2653, I was watching my OKX account, and the floating profit on long positions decreased again... No need to guess the reason—Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point for global oil transportation. Iran's proposal was "You lift the blockade, and I'll reopen the strait within seven days." Trump directly refused. Once this statement came out, crude oil prices immediately surged above $103, inflation expectations rose, and risk assets collectively took a hit, with BTC being the first to suffer.
I glanced at the OKX order book; there were sporadic buy orders around 83500, but very thin, while sell orders were densely stacked. The panic index rose from 70 to 74, still in the greed zone, but the total 24-hour liquidation across the network reached $187 million, with a batch of longs being forced out.
But I have to say something calm. Geopolitics impacts the crypto space in pulses, not as a trend. Bitfinex's analysis is very clear: BTC's macro pressure mainly transmits through oil prices, and oil prices depend on the progress of US-Iran negotiations.
I'll mark the key levels:
BTC: Support at 82800-83000, this is the next defense line; breaking below looks toward 81500-81800; resistance at 84500-84800, failure to rebound above means weakness.
$ETH: Support at 2620-2640, breaking below looks toward 2580; resistance at 2700-2720, failure to hold above means just a rebound.This week $BTC will still face a major hurdle!
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
On September 30, the US August PCE will be released first, followed by the September non-farm payrolls on October 2. The previous core PCE year-on-year was still at 3.3%; August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Inflation hasn't cooled off, and employment hasn't collapsed either. It's a bit urgent now to pick a direction for Bitcoin.
I'll first watch if core inflation can continue to decline, then look at the new jobs added in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and hourly wages. If the data remains hot, the market might raise interest rate expectations again; only when inflation cools and employment slows down gradually will BTC have a chance to catch its breath. But if employment suddenly drops sharply, don't just impulsively call it bullish.
Sigh, the first candlestick is the most deceptive. The test ends on Wednesday, but there's still one on Friday. Don't let your hands be faster than your brain.#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
The US and Iran continue negotiations on the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz
After Trump vetoed Iran's 7-day navigation plan, both sides have not stopped talks and will continue dialogue this week. Iran's demands are clear: the US lifts the maritime blockade, relaxes oil sanctions, and unfreezes related assets; once these conditions are met, navigation through the strait will resume.
From the fundamentals, crude oil transport flow through Hormuz is recovering. Kpler estimates about 7.4 million barrels per day of crude oil transported through the strait in September, with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries' exports rising to the peak level since the conflict broke out. The market's focus is on the preconditions for resuming navigation; the progress of negotiations will directly change crude supply expectations, thereby affecting oil prices and risk asset pricing.
On the market front, crude oil varieties CL slightly rose, BZ slightly fell, overall reaction is relatively flat, as the short-term market has partially priced in the expectation of navigation recovery.
BTC is currently in a range-bound oscillation structure, hitting resistance at 85242 and falling back, now priced at 84188. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are converging, with the middle band at 84605, key resistance above at 85000, and support below at 84171.
Currently, the macro environment reflects a weakening geopolitical risk expectation and a short-term equilibrium resonance between bulls and bears on the market, with no clear one-sided signal. In a choppy market, only the two ends of the range have trading value; before a breakout, it is best to wait and watch, focusing on the effective breakthrough of the 85000 level. Once volume increases and it holds above, a new upward space will open.I strongly recommend beginners change the exchange balance display to RMB
The crypto world really subtly distorts your perception of money
An ordinary person in China earns about 10,000 yuan a month
which is only about 1400 USD
You use 140 USD to open a 100x leverage position
and a year's salary is tied up in that position
But for people in crypto, this is called an ant-sized position
When you get liquidated and left with nothing, you realize
2 USD is a meal of pig's trotters, 20 USD is a meal at Haidilao
In crypto, this is just called wear and tear
I don't know if the big whales showing balances of tens of millions of dollars on Twitter are everywhere
I just hope when you return from crypto, you still understand the weight of money Aave founder injects 30,900 AAVE into the pool, OKX spot turnover at $154
The founder replenished 30,900 AAVE liquidity on Uniswap, and OKX spot price stopped at $154 this morning. Those holding AAVE spot should first watch the turnover around $154 today.
I checked Arkham's on-chain details this morning. Founder Stani injected 30,900 tokens into the liquidity pool, worth about $4.77 million at the current price. This was to add market depth, not to deposit tokens to exchanges to dump. AAVE rose steadily from $58 in June to $154, a 2.7x rebound in three months, making it one of the most stable DeFi blue chips.
I also looked at OKX contracts this morning. The total perpetual open interest stands at $7.771 billion, with altcoin contracts accounting for $3.086 billion, slightly more than Bitcoin's open interest. The overall market fear and greed index is at 74 greed. AAVE's perpetual funding rate on OKX remains at 0.01%, roughly an annualized 10.95%. Bulls are quietly paying interest; no large orders are rushing to add leverage. I personally hold spot and am not chasing longs in contracts.
For friends holding AAVE spot, seeing the token rebound 2.7x from $58 and the founder adding $4.77 million liquidity to the pool"Last Night Crypto: $85K Surged Up, But Why Couldn't It Hold?"
The core contradiction last night: weekend buying pushed prices higher but couldn't withstand the macro repricing.
① BTC peaked at $85,060 then pulled back, this morning returning near $84,000; ETH fell from $2,719 to around $2,675, showing weaker performance, risk appetite did not expand.
② Brent crude oil rose 1.6% to $106, up 17% this month; market prices a 66% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.5185%. S&P futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq futures flat.
③ Last week BTC spot ETF net inflow was $2.4 billion, but daily inflow dropped from $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday; ETH ETF weekly inflow was $689.9 million. Whether today's funds can continue inflows is key.
④ Vitalik announced Ethereum's 2030 roadmap focusing on recursive STARKs, formal verification, and quantum resistance. The Block
Today, watch three points: whether BTC can reclaim $85K, whether oil prices and US Treasury yields can cool down, and whether ETF inflows will expand again. If all three resonate, the breakout logic restores; if BTC fails to hold $83,600 and ETH continues weakening, the judgment fails.
Funds can push prices up, liquidity can keep them there.
Which side do you favor? A Reclaim $85K / B Continue to pull back
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #MarketMorningReportWatching $NEAR surge from 4.087 all the way up to 5.581, then slowly pull back, the hardest part today isn’t missing out, it’s "wanting to chase but not daring to."
At 10 o'clock this candlestick opened at 5.304 and closed at 5.297, with a change of -0.15% and a volatility of 2%, looking like it's treading water. But looking back, the current price is already below the three short moving averages, the KDJ J value dropped to 11.39, RSI(6) is only 41, and the sentiment is clearly cooler than a few hours ago.
Friends who chased the highs earlier are probably struggling now: should they cut losses? Those who haven't entered are debating: should they buy the dip? My old problem is wanting to have it both ways, and ending up losing on both ends.
The rule I've developed over the years is simple: don't take trades without a plan. If you want to chase, chase the previous levels, not chase first and then think about stop loss; if you want to buy the dip, wait for it to stabilize on its own, don’t catch the falling knife.
Everyone has seen the positive news like ETFs and ecosystem data, but the good news is no one can really calculate "how much of that is already priced in." So for now, I’m staying put and watching.Bitfinex stated that if BTC successfully breaks through $86,000, the selling pressure above may significantly thin out. Data shows that from $86,000 to $125,000, only about 23% of the supply remains within potential pressure range. Currently, BTC price is around $84,446, not far from the key breakout zone. However, $84,000–$86,000 still represents an important resistance band, with over 1 million BTC accumulated above this range, making a direct short-term breakout challenging. Meanwhile, in the past 7 days, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of about $2.98 billion, continuously absorbing some market sell orders and providing certain price support. But "only 23% supply remaining above" does not mean the price will immediately rise. What really needs attention is an effective close near $87,400. If BTC is repeatedly blocked around $86,000, or if the breakout lacks volume support, then the judgment of "thin supply above" should be treated cautiously in the short term. The 23% figure itself is not a bullish signal; it more so means that once the current supply wall is broken, the next significant dense trading area may be farther away. #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #BTCAnalysisOn-chain data update: Brother Maji's positions have once again reached a point that requires close monitoring.
His current account exposure is 93.41 million U, all fully leveraged perpetual long positions, with three positions in very different situations:
$ETH 25,000 tokens, 25x leverage, the only one with unrealized profit, but the liquidation price is close to the entry cost, and funding fees are continuously eating into the profit. The safety buffer is very thin; any slight market pullback will turn the unrealized profit into a loss.
$BTC 200 tokens, 40x leverage, unrealized losses are expanding. The extremely high leverage cannot withstand deep drawdowns; if the price weakens, it approaches the liquidation red line.
$HYPE 136,000 tokens, 10x leverage, unrealized losses accumulating. When altcoin sentiment fades, volatility is high, and pullbacks are much more damaging than mainstream coins.
My judgment: The bullish direction is fine, but fully leveraged positions with high leverage are a double-edged sword.
Riding the trend amplifies gains enjoyably, but once a large bearish candle hits, the account has almost no buffer and faces immediate forced liquidation.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 The US clearinghouse The Clearing House chose Quant to handle interoperability and settlement orchestration for "On-Chain Money"—in plain terms, the network for bank tokenized deposits still needs to connect with everyday fiat rails like RTP and CHIPS. The official announcement was very clear: participating institutions are expected to start using it only by the first half of 2027. But the market settled the score first. According to Rhythm's data, QNT hovered just above 300 in the past hour, doubling in volume over 24 hours; the Planet comment section even showed a screenshot of a 15-minute drop from over 500 back down to the 200s, which left people stunned. The story is real, but the launch is still on paper. When the rails actually open, will this current heat still be there?This week's macro highlights are here 🚀
This week, I think what the crypto world really needs to watch is whether US employment and inflation data can continue to push up the market's expectations for interest rate hikes.
Wednesday: ADP employment numbers, core PCE
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve officials' speeches
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate
Especially Friday's nonfarm payrolls!
Because last week the market already started to trade on the logic that high interest rates will be maintained longer, if this week's employment data remains strong and core PCE does not show obvious cooling, then I believe the market's expectation for continued rate hikes in October may still be affected.
This is quite critical for Bitcoin.
Conversely, if employment starts to weaken and inflation data cools down, and the market lowers its rate hike expectations again, then the pressure on risk assets may also be relieved.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 In February 2026, an obscure Meme coin surged from $0.0003 to $0.042 within 4 hours. On Twitter, a flood of "get in" calls appeared at 2 PM Beijing time. But at 1 AM—3 hours before the frenzy began—the token's contract address had already circulated hundreds of times in several private Discord groups, and 12 addresses labeled as "smart money" had completed their positions. This is not insider trading. This is a tool gap. The chasm between top Alpha circles and ordinary retail investors lies not in the information itself, but in the timing of its arrival. By the time Twitter KOLs' "discoveries" become public signals, early participants are already considering exit strategies. Below is an analysis of what they were actually watching 3 hours before the Twitter frenzy. 1. Mempool: Acting before transactions are confirmed Retail investors watch price charts; top Alphas watch the mempool (transaction memory pool). When a transaction is submitted to the Ethereum or Solana network, it first enters the mempool waiting to be packaged. During this window, the transaction details are visible to anyone running a full node. The open-source architecture of Crypto Alpha Scanner reveals this logic: the system listens to every new block via RPC providers like Alchemy or QuickNode, immediately capturing signals of new liquidity pool creations triggered by events like PairCreated, filtering out largeXRP spot ETF net inflow of $75.59 million last week
In the five trading days last week, $XRP spot ETF had a net inflow of $75.59 million.
Where did this money come from:
$58.99 million came from a Bitwise product.
Working backward, it accounts for 78% of the total.
How is this number calculated:
The remaining $16.6 million came from Franklin's product.
Together, the two add up exactly to the full week's amount.
Compared to the past, this is the second consecutive week of net inflow.
Compared to now, the total assets are only $1.77 billion.
This accounts for only 1.8% of $XRP's total market cap.
Less than two percent share means the incoming money hasn't reached scale yet.
When this ratio rises significantly, it will mean real participation.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $XRP #BTC
Funds are indeed flowing in.
Since June, the total altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin has increased by about $371 billion, a rise of approximately 45%.
TOTAL2 has approached $1.17 trillion, up 9.6% in a week.
But BTC's market dominance remains around 58.5%, not breaking the key level.
Funds are moving, but it’s not yet the stage of a full rotation. Highlights RENDER is one of the few AI+DePIN projects with real computing power settlement, not just a pure hype coin. 1. Platform demand is strong, but the token is still in net inflation, with the top 10 addresses highly concentrated. Buying RENDER means buying the “mid-term narrative β+ phase α of decentralized GPU,” not a value capture that has already been proven. 2. True highlights (verifiable, not just Twitter sentiment) 1. Independent and verifiable usage: Rendered frames. Approximately 77 million frames rendered cumulatively, which is an on-chain/network metric, more concrete than “ecosystem prosperity.” 2. First negative GPU supply in Q2 2026, demand surpasses nodes. About 60,000 GPUs connected over six months, covering 180 countries, fully utilized upon entry; about 5,600 active nodes, but demand still exceeds schedulable capacity. The last negative supply was in 2018. 3. AI load increased from <10% to 35–40%. Previously relied on OctaneRender for professional rendering; now inference/fine-tuning consumes computing power, and the Dispersed subnet is expanding. This distinguishes Render from pure MEME AI coins. 4. Burn rate year-over-year +279% reflects real computing power purchases increasing. Approximately 1.53 million tokens burned cumulatively. 5. Institutional allocation vote: Grayscale’s decentralized AI fund allocates about 21% to Render, a leading position. A confidence vote, not revenue sharing. 3. WeaknessesSome of the techniques learned for $ZEC failed on this coin
Is it because I didn't learn well enough, or because I didn't adjust the techniques properly under the premise of leverage in the crypto market? If it's the latter, how should I adjust?At first, I was simply driven by my love for robots and wanted to start a small robot toy company, just focusing on making good products steadily. Unexpectedly, the smart robot industry caught a wave, capital came knocking proactively, media competed to report, rounds of financing landed, and the company grew bigger and bigger.
Outsiders see me as a hardcore tech entrepreneur, but I have always felt anxious inside: essentially, we are still a toy company without truly fundamental core technology. The real barrier for humanoid robots is the AI embodied brain, the hardcore algorithms of environmental perception, autonomous decision-making, and multimodal interaction, while I can only deeply refine movement actions like dancing and running. Now the company’s cash flow is not bad at all, we are not short of money, but capital is pushing me to go public; they want to cash out and exit. I am forced along unwillingly, even though there is no urgent need to go public, I have to take this path.
I clearly understand that I lack the technical reserves to conquer advanced intelligent brains, and long-term competition at the level of flashy movements will not sustain the valuation of a tech company once the industry cools down. This is what makes me most anxious.
Sometimes even I don’t understand the current domestic robot industry.
Many so-called smart robots mostly still rely on remote control. Thinking carefully, how fundamentally different are they from the remote-controlled toys we had as kids? I often feel the difference is not that big.
But capital is willing to recognize, willing to tell stories, even stoking nationalistic sentiment to hype the sector. Being in this wave, many times, I am also the one pushed forward by the tide.Soros's theory of reflexivity finds its most fitting experimental ground in DOGE: market participants' biases not only passively reflect prices but also actively change the prices themselves. DOGE has no complex cash flow model, nor underlying business for valuation; its pricing logic is a feedback loop—the community believes in "to the moon," so they buy and hold; buying pushes the price up; the rise then validates the belief, attracting more people to join. Belief is no longer a bystander in the market but a part of the market itself.
The fuel for this loop is the community's creativity. Memes, jokes, and tipping culture make DOGE's dissemination cost almost zero; every meme is free marketing, every meme image recharges the belief. Musk's tweets act like a catalyst, accelerating the loop with just one sentence. Traditional assets rely on performance to speak, DOGE relies on consensus to speak—and consensus, when believed by many, truly delivers.
Of course, reflexivity is a double-edged sword. When the loop goes upward, belief and price reinforce each other; but once belief weakens, the loop reverses, selling weakens consensus, and consensus collapse intensifies selling. Soros long warned that trends created by reflexivity are never stable and depend on participants' continuous commitment.
The real lesson of $DOGE is this: it takes "value derived from consensus" to the extreme. When a group of people sincerely believe in something, that belief itself becomes a force. Whether it is a bubble or the future, the answer is not in the charts but in the eyes of the community. #BTC
Long positions are being actively closed, but this isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Open contracts on Binance have decreased by about $500 million over a few days, while the cumulative volume delta (CVD) has dropped by more than 50%.
This indicates that leveraged traders who chased longs around 87,000 are retreating—not being forcibly liquidated, but choosing to reduce their risk exposure.
After the leverage is cleaned out, the market structure actually becomes healthier.The short position at $ETH 2709 is still held.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Previously added once when the price rose to 2722, now finally back below 2709, this position currently has some unrealized profit.
ETH finally stopped asking me what floor the forced liquidation price is on.
Now it’s asking where babala’s take-profit order is placed www
But I can’t be too happy yet.
Although ETH has pulled back from the high these days, around 2660 is exactly the previous breakout level. As long as this level is not truly broken, this can only be considered a pullback after a rise, and we can’t say the trend has reversed yet.
Next, I’m mainly watching the support between 2660 and 2640.
If it breaks down effectively, the short position will be further confirmed, and the next targets could be 2600, and if weaker, around 2560.
If the price climbs back above 2700 and breaks through 2720 again, this pullback might just be a shakeout, and the advantage of the short position will gradually disappear.
This time I won’t add to the position, nor do I want the unrealized profit to turn back into a loss.
After all, the market’s favorite trick is to first make babala think their judgment was right, then suddenly come back to collect the ticket www
Next, I’m only watching whether 2660 can hold or not. Oil prices break $100, US Treasury yields soar
Short-term bearish bias, increased volatility
Trump rejects Iran's proposal, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz heats up, oil prices break through $100.
When oil prices rise, inflation expectations follow.
If inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut rates and may even continue to hawkishly tighten.
The result is a surge in US Treasury yields—2-year yields hit 4.90%, 10-year yields approach 5.20%
What does this mean for cryptocurrencies?
First, capital diversion. The higher the US Treasury yields, the greater the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Some funds will flow back from risk assets like $BTC and $ETH to bonds or money market funds, causing a draining effect.
Second, leverage under pressure. Rising yields often accompany tightening liquidity, increasing financing costs in the futures market, making long positions more prone to liquidation. Historically, during sharp rises in US Treasury yields, BTC often experiences pullbacks.
Third, greater pressure on altcoins. BTC still has halving and ETF funds as support, but most altcoins lack fundamental backing. In a high interest rate environment, funds concentrate more on the leaders.
But it's not all negative. If the Middle East situation continues to deteriorate, evolving from "inflation concerns" to a "fiat currency trust crisis," BTC's digital gold narrative could be activated. However, this process takes time, and the market always runs first in the early stages.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 The current price is still hovering around 83,000, but the long liquidation wall below has already piled up to about 1 billion in volume.
According to Coinglass, if BTC falls below approximately $80,516, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs reaches about $1.047 billion; if it breaks above approximately $88,520, the cumulative short liquidation intensity reaches about $985 million. At the time of writing, OKX spot is around $83,775. (ChainCatcher+Coinglass 9/28; relative to yesterday's roughly symmetrical walls of about 636 million/636 million as NEW delta; liquidation intensity ≠ guaranteed break, the map shifts with the order book, breaking levels ≠ trend confirmation) The above is public data compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC September 28｜QNT: Bank collaboration, just a few steps away from token demand
What draws attention to QNT today is not just market fluctuations. On September 24, The Clearing House in the US announced it selected Quant to provide technology for its On-Chain Money Initiative. This project aims to enable tokenized deposits issued by different banks to be cleared and settled with each other, connecting existing RTP and CHIPS payment networks.
A common misunderstanding is to interpret "banks adopting Quant" as "every bank transfer requires buying QNT." The announcement confirms interoperability, orchestration, and transaction management capabilities; the network is expected to open to participating institutions in the first half of 2027, so it cannot be stated today that banks have fully launched and are operating.
Under current terms, Quant classifies QNT as a utility token usable for its products and services. However, this cooperation announcement does not specify how much QNT the network will need or when token demand will arise. There are still commercial terms, deployment schedules, and actual usage volumes separating corporate cooperation progress from token value realization.
Next, we can observe whether participating institutions and application scenarios are announced and whether the launch timeline is met. When interest rises, prices tend to reflect imagination first; how far the technical cooperation goes still depends on subsequent disclosures and cannot be used as a guarantee for holding returns.
$QNT #QNT
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.#HYPE again faces a 100 million yuan release, Japanese companies enter the market for the first time
Woke up this morning and first checked the open interest; HYPE dropped from 123 million to 105 million, while the price fell less than 3 points
Generally, when price falls and open interest decreases, it means leverage is withdrawing, but looking at active buy and sell volumes, longs and shorts are basically balanced, no one is aggressively dumping, and the funding rate is still slightly positive at 0.007%, indicating the bulls are not completely panicked and are still paying the shorts
Looking at the cycle, the 1-hour MACD shows a death cross, the green bars remain, and the price slid from the high of 98 down to around 90, with 89.8 as short-term support
The 4-hour chart also shows a death cross, support is at 83.27, resistance at 91.12, the daily chart is still bullish, but the MACD red bars have turned green, showing clear weakening momentum
At this position, I find it quite awkward; downward, the daily trend is not broken, with support near 83; upward, short-term indicators are all bearish, resistance near 94 is significant, the long-short ratio is 1.12, and neither retail nor institutional investors have a clear direction
My plan is to wait for it to reach the 83 to 85 range to see if there are signs of volume contraction and stabilization; if so, I might try a small position, or wait until it climbs back above 94 to confirm a rebound before acting. For now, just watching, no rush
Do you still hold HYPE? Are you planning to cut losses or add more?
Personal review, not investment advice
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 $HYPE The interesting part of this week’s ETF flows isn’t the headline $300M retail outflow. It’s where the money came from. Semiconductors took the hit first: ➤ SOXX: -$270M in one day ➤ SOXL: -$1.2B this week ➤ Total weekly outflows: nearly $1.9B That looks less like a broad market panic and more like deleveraging after a powerful AI-chip run. SOXL’s leveraged structure also means part of the flow is mechanical, so the outflow shouldn’t be treated as a pure retail sentiment indicator. The bigger sigInflation first. Jobs next. This could be a big week for the Fed narrative.
PCE and payrolls are two reports I’ll be watching together rather than separately. PCE tells us whether inflation pressure is improving, while payrolls give us a clearer picture of how much strength is left in the labor market.
Personally, I think the most interesting scenario would be sticky inflation combined with strong jobs. That would make it much harder for the Fed to justify easing policy anytime soon. On the other hand, softer inflation together with weaker hiring could completely change the rate conversation again.
For BTC and equities, I’m less interested in guessing each number and more interested in how Treasury yields and the dollar react once both reports are out.
One report can create a headline.
Two reports pointing in the same direction can change the whole macro story. 👀
This week, I’m watching the combination not just the individual numbers.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek $BTC The weekend BTC daily high warning signal has finally formed. This is the first daily high for BTC since the daily low rebound in early July, and also the 2nd daily high formed this year, with the last one appearing in May. According to the historical performance of BTC daily signals, there have been 7 occurrences in the past year, 6 of which were near the lowest or highest points of market swings, with a historical hit rate exceeding 85%. This is the 8th daily high signal; whether it will verify this statistical performance again remains to be observed. From the quantitative statistics of highs and lows on the dashboard, currently more than half of the coins in the crypto market have already shown 12H and daily level high signals, indicating that market synchronicity remains strong. After more than two months of rebound, most coins have reached relatively high levels. More analysis will be available in the noon weekly report ❤️ Wishing everyone happy trading #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Over nine million US dollars, sounds like a lot of money.
Breaking it down, Grayscale HYPG brought in 3.89 million in a week, Bitwise added 3.19 million.
Together, these two account for more than 70%.
With last week's market conditions, still being able to put money in shows someone is really treating it as a long-term position.
But to be honest, this volume isn't large for an ETF.
Using spot ETFs as a reference, this looks more like exploratory positioning rather than aggressive accumulation.
Long-term holders fear not a drop, but seeing a little inflow and mistakenly thinking the main force has arrived.
I've been burned by this before, mistaking initial positioning for a start, only to be worn down for three months.
Roughly calculated, 9.25 million is barely a fraction of HYPE's daily trading volume.
So don't rush to call a reversal.
The money is genuinely coming in, but the pace is slow.
Slow is fine; as an old trader, I've been fooled by fast markets before and am wary.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $HYPE #BTC
Based on the four-year cycle, the peak in 2029 is estimated to be between 200,000 and 210,000.
From the current position, that's about a 2.4x increase in three years.
If you entered around 60,000, the multiple could exceed 3.3x.
Annualized, the former is about 33% to 35%, and the latter is close to 50%.
This projection assumes the cycle pattern continues to hold.
It held true for the past two cycles, but the sample size is only two.
It can be used as a reference, but don't take it as a guarantee.It was already in a pullback, and then the theft news stepped on it again, really speechless 😭
Honestly, BTC itself has a need for a pullback after a rally, but then the news broke that the Coldcard hardware wallet was stolen, with 1,830 bitcoins lost, adding another layer of selling pressure to the market, pushing the price down accordingly.
Clearly, this is a hardware wallet vulnerability incident, yet the entire market has to pay the price. Market sentiment is already fragile, and any negative news tends to be amplified. Short-term funds take advantage of the news to dump, sweeping out many long positions directly.
The long-term cycle logic hasn’t been broken by this news, but short-term panic is unavoidable. This is how sudden negative news works in a bull market—no matter how big the impact, the price drops first.
This kind of news-driven decline is the hardest to predict, and contract traders especially have to suffer. The market is always full of unknown surprises!
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 $BTC Short crude oil at 106, reduced position at 89, can add back at the trendlineOh no……
Going long on BTC and ETH, held this position for several days,
Now thinking back, feels a bit stubborn.
From making up to 120 points,
to falling back several times making seventy or eighty points,
Still didn’t exit, what was I aiming for?
Even in a bull market, you have to lock in profits!
Now that I’m losing money,
My mindset is turning into tough resistance 😂😂😂As of September 28, 2026, the core market contradiction is "geopolitical risks pushing up energy prices, but the energy shock also raising interest rate expectations."
The lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, and the uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, have caused crude oil to rebound. Reuters reported that Brent rose about 1.8% that day to $96.65 per barrel, and WTI rose about 2.0% to $90.76 per barrel, but Brent had plunged about 13.7% the previous week, indicating the market remains highly dependent on negotiation news.
The rise in crude oil affects the market through two channels:
1. It provides short-term support to energy stocks and oil-producing country assets but increases transportation, manufacturing, and consumption costs.
2. It raises inflationary pressure, causing the market to worry that central banks will maintain high interest rates for longer. Currently, US long-term Treasury yields are rising, and the dollar and real interest rates are putting pressure on precious metals. Reuters reported gold at about $4,262 per ounce, having fallen more than 4% this month.
For gold, there are two opposing forces now:
- Geopolitical conflicts and financial market uncertainty theoretically support gold's safe-haven demand.
- But if rising oil prices trigger stronger inflation and rate hike expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields rise, putting opportunity cost pressure on gold.
Therefore, gold is more likely to show high volatility and first seek support in the short term rather than immediately form a one-sided upward trend. Technically, the market recently focuses on support around $4,235–4,230 per ounce; initial resistance is near $4,318–4,320 per ounce. If negotiations continue to deteriorate and oil prices quickly surge again, gold may first test support; if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices fall, and yields decline, gold is more likely to challenge resistance above again.
My baseline judgment is: gold will be relatively volatile and weak in the next few days, and subsequent trends depend on whether oil prices and US Treasury yields fall simultaneously. If oil cools but geopolitical risks remain, conditions for gold's rebound will be better than now; if oil prices and yields rise together, gold may temporarily struggle to sustain gains even with safe-haven demand.
This is only a market scenario analysis based on current information, not a definitive price forecast or personalized investment advice.$BTC Strategy has made a move again, are you still waiting for a pullback?
The Strategy restarted buying after a ten-week pause, currently holding 846,000 coins, accounting for 3.4% of BTC's total supply. The largest treasury company has pressed the buy button again, indicating institutions have accepted the cost at this price level, which is more concrete than any technical signal.
But on the other hand, stay calm: the total stablecoin market cap remains flat at 312 billion, shrinking 3% from the May peak. No new leverage ammunition has been added; this rally can only rely on existing positions cutting each other, so sustainability is discounted.
On the miner side, there is a drastic shift: IREN announced it will completely exit mining and switch to AI computing power by the end of the year, and Core Scientific would rather pay penalties than cancel mining machine orders. Mining companies are collectively turning to AI, changing the selling pressure logic, but the total network hashrate is 943.5 EH/s, and difficulty just hit a new high of 132.76T, meaning the remaining miners are competing even harder.
On the derivatives front: after expiration, options open interest rebuilt to $33.7 billion, DVOL is rising, skew drifting toward bearish, smart money is buying protection for the October rate hike + PCE data week, not naked longs.
BTC has been sideways around 84,000 for three days, with a locked-in zone at 88,000 above and integer support below; direction awaits data confirmation. Don't hold any hope for OKB; its market share is gradually being surpassed by exchanges like gate, it has stopped buyback and burn again, the ecosystem can't get off the ground, and the exchange keeps fantasizing about going public every day. Even if it goes public, the funds will go to the stock market, which will only render its own platform token a useless burden.Are you still bottom-fishing after the death cross of the fast and slow lines? This is the biggest pit where I lost 200,000 U.
What are the fast and slow lines? They are two lines representing the short-term average price and the long-term average price. When the short-term line crosses from above to below, it's called a death cross, indicating that short-term buying pressure can no longer overcome long-term selling pressure.
I previously saw the death cross and thought it had dropped so much it should rebound, so I entered with 5,000 U and got buried immediately. I held for three days but couldn't bear it and cut losses.
Now $BTC current price is 83,679, resistance at 84,000, support at 83,429, leaning bearish. The fast and slow lines have already formed a death cross, so I won't touch long positions. If I trade, I'll wait for a rebound near 84,000 to try shorting, with a stop loss above 84,500 and a target around 83,000. A small 5,000 U position, always with stop loss, no holding through losses.
Remember: Don't bottom-fish on a death cross; following the trend is the way to go. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Recently, the perpetual contract trading volume on Arbitrum exceeded $50 billion in the past 30 days, with a week-on-week surge of over 60%; meanwhile, Robinhood Chain's cumulative fee revenue reached $50 million, of which 5 million AEP fees flowed back to the Arbitrum treasury governed by the token. These two pieces of news have directly brought the ecosystem's activity and token value capture to the forefront. 👉🏻Short-term impact The sharp increase in trading volume indicates that capital and users are truly flowing back. Platforms like Variational contributed the majority, with a daily volume exceeding one billion; on-chain activity, fees, and TVL will all rise accordingly. Market sentiment is easily ignited, and $ARB is expected to strengthen in the short term, with increased volatility. But don't forget, no matter how high the perpetual volume is, if it's just short-term speculation, once the market cools down, price pullbacks will be quick. 👉🏻Long-term impact More crucial is Robinhood Chain's AEP mechanism. It allocates 10% of net protocol revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem (8% to the DAO treasury, 2% to the developer fund). This is equivalent to installing a continuous income faucet for ARB holders. The larger the ecosystem grows, the stronger the treasury becomes, expanding the space for governance and buyback/incentives. Shifting from "subsidizing by issuing tokens" to "earning through real business" is significant for ARB's value anchoring. The growth of the perpetual ecosystem also means Arbitrum's moat in the derivatives sector deepens, attracting more projects and capital for long-term residence. 👉🏻Overall assessment#BTC
Looking at the weekly chart from a broader perspective, the current position is at the foot of the mountain.
Once the 50-week and 100-week moving averages turn upward, the direction will be clear.
Before that, all short-term short positions are going against the major trend.
Looking back in a year or two, at the 160K level, no one will remember the fluctuations happening now.
Holding onto spot and some long positions without too many trades might actually be the most effective approach.#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData
Reviewing trading views:
Last week I kept updating my short positions on crude oil, based on the expectation of negotiations. After all, it’s been a long time since we heard the sound of artillery fire. Now is the negotiation period; crude oil is in a phase of oscillating decline. The current situation is mutual probing, but Iran is more passive and continues ceasefire talks. Trump needs an agreement he can explain. As long as the guns stay silent, the agreement is being continuously refined and modified, and will eventually be reached in October. At this deadlock stage, we can only keep adjusting entry points upward.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin stopped going long after 87K and has been testing the top to short. The reason is the previous continuous large gap breakouts, with short liquidations and forced closures driving the main move. New highs require buying volume that is hard to keep up in the short term. Approaching October’s rate hike expectations, as of today the rate hike probability is 65.9%. We will see if this week’s nonfarm data will promote or weaken that.
Technically, the 1H and 4H charts have entered a bearish trend, but the larger structure is intact, representing a pullback in an uptrend. This short position targets support around 82K first; if broken, look to liquidity zones at 80-79K.
Gold started structural changes after breaking below 4300 at the beginning of the month, but confirmation was needed. After breaking down again, it’s confirmed and currently still in a correction. Gold will rise, but not now. The current adjustment is not finished. This wave is expected to pull back to 4085-4065 for entry; only below 4100 is it advisable to go long.
[Personal trading views only, not investment advice] $BTC $XAU $CL Brothers, $ZEC is only suitable for short-term trading, shorting at high levels and going long at low levels, never hold it long-term!
Look at the current market, ZEC is priced at 1,581.88 now, down quite a bit in 24 hours. I opened a short at 1,643.78, marked price 1,581.88, floating profit directly up to 11.29%! Isolated 3x leverage, margin only 5.47U, liquidation price at 2,168.92, my position is so small the big players don’t even notice me. I also shorted SOL, current price 120.89, hovering near the cost line, I’m ignoring it for now.
Why say ZEC is only good for short-term? This coin was pumped from 800 to over 1,600 purely driven by short squeeze liquidations, contract trading volume is more than ten times the spot, leverage stacking the gains. It rises sharply and falls hard too. Anyone stubbornly holding longs at the top or shorts at the bottom will eventually get played to death by its whipsaws. After ten years fixing cars, I know this kind of vehicle well — it’s like a modified race car, fast but if the steering wheel shakes even a bit, it flips over. You can only sprint, not take it on a long trip.
At this point, shorting at the high has already made profits, I’ll consider taking profits around 1,550. After it falls through, I’ll consider going long at the low. Never greedy, never stubborn. $BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Big brother Maji is back. Not opening a position. He’s setting off three landmines and lighting a cigarette.😇 Total open interest: 93.41 million U. All perpetual longs across the board. Two extremes of ice and fire? No, it’s ice and fire burning together. ETH 25,000 coins, 25x. The only profitable one. But the liquidation price is right on the edge, funding fees are draining, fault tolerance? None. One pullback, profits turn into a memorial photo. BTC 200 coins, 40x. Unrealized losses expandingZEC dropped sharply from around $1,695 to $1,586, with the daily decline exceeding 6% at the deepest point. Bears immediately started celebrating, while bulls began questioning whether the rally had finally topped out. My read: this looks more like a leverage flush than a confirmed trend reversal — but the short-term risk is still extremely high. 🐋 What triggered the move? A major whale deleveraging appears to have accelerated the decline. Garrett Jin has reportedly been holding roughly 200,000🔥 On Monday's open, what’s really worth watching isn’t guessing the price direction, but whether the resistance levels can be overcome.
$BTC is currently around $84K. After pushing up to $87K last week, it pulled back; $85K has been tested multiple times but no effective breakout has formed. The good news is that BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, about $2.39B in a single week, indicating institutional buying is still present.
$ETH is around $2.68K, also stuck near 2700, with clear resistance at previous highs.
More importantly, this week is packed with macro data: Tuesday brings JOLTS + Consumer Confidence, Wednesday GDP final value + PCE, and Friday Nonfarm Payrolls.
So the script for this week is simple:
BTC first watches $85K → $87K, with support at $83K;
ETH watches if $2700 can be firmly reclaimed.
ETFs are providing a floor, but macro data may cause volatility.
Funds haven’t left, but prices can’t break resistance — this is the key contradiction to observe now. 👀
The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH The latest position data shows Whale Maji holding roughly $91.8M in total exposure, with all three positions heavily leveraged long. The biggest issue isn’t simply the size — it’s the extremely limited room for error. 🔥 ETH — 20,000 coins | 20x Long ETH remains the only position currently showing a floating gain. But the margin cushion is still thin. With funding costs continuously eating into returns, even a relatively small pullback could quickly turn the green P&L into red. 🟠 BTC — 175 coin9.28 BTC Morning Market Analysis: Global Assets Plunge Collectively, Bulls Face Pressure Test
On the morning of September 28, the global market experienced a rare synchronized plunge across asset classes. Gold, global stock markets, tech stocks, and crypto assets all weakened together. BTC also came under pressure and declined in the morning session, with bulls at previous highs facing concentrated profit-taking. The market quickly shifted from unilateral optimism to caution.
The core reason for this multi-asset decline is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which led the market to reprice Federal Reserve policy expectations, cooling down rate cut expectations further. When Treasury yields rise, risk-free returns increase, causing high-volatility assets to be the first to be reduced by capital. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, also fell simultaneously, indicating this is not an ordinary risk-off sell-off but a unified deleveraging triggered by tightening liquidity. Institutional funds are raising cash by reducing holdings in stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. U.S. tech futures weakened first, with profit-taking in the AI sector, causing risk appetite to drop sharply and directly impacting the crypto market.
From the market perspective, BTC had previously surged continuously, accumulating substantial unrealized gains, so a pullback was inherently needed at high levels. Driven by the synchronized sell-off across global assets, short-term selling pressure was amplified, with concentrated liquidations of long positions further intensifying price volatility. The key support levels should be closely monitored in the short term. If support holds, the market will likely enter a wide-range consolidation at high levels; if support breaks, a deeper technical correction will begin.
On the capital side, inflows into BTC spot ETFs have noticeably slowed, and the willingness of new funds to enter has weakened. Relying solely on existing on-exchange holdings to push prices higher is unsustainable. The previously supportive crypto legislation benefits that underpinned the bull market narrative have been fully priced in, and without new positive news, market sentiment is prone to follow macro fluctuations.
Overall, this round of decline is an adjustment caused by macro expectations combined with profit-taking at high levels. The mid-to-long-term bull market structure remains intact, but short-term bulls need to recuperate. Until global stock markets and gold stabilize, BTC faces high volatility risk and it is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish. It is better to wait for selling pressure to ease and capital sentiment to recover before reassessing.$BTC rebound is weak, encountering resistance at 85000, with a doji candlestick formed in the early session on the daily chart. This doji indicates that the bulls tried to counterattack upwards but were blocked and pushed down by the bears. After 5 days of market consolidation, the upward retracement is declining again, returning near 83500. If it breaks down, it should reach the 81500-80500 range. Those looking to trade the rebound can consider placing orders at 81388, which was the breakout starting point on 9.21 and still serves as effective support. However, any position must include a stop loss. Often the market moves up in one go, and down without any rebound. The support I see is visible to the vast majority of the market, and the manipulative whales know it too, so stop losses are essential.
$ETH also failed to hold above 2700 yesterday, with the highest point at 2720 declining. Many in the market expect Ethereum to catch up with a rebound. Some are even waiting for it. If BTC falls back near 81500, Ethereum will directly drop to the 2500-2550 range, which corresponds to the consolidation zone from late August to early September and is also the starting point of this breakout surge to 2800. The key is whether BTC can hold steady at 80000 on the pullback; if it does, Ethereum can stabilize at 2500 with some rebound. If it breaks down, then it’s over. So those bottom-fishing here must have a good stop loss in place. If it breaks down sharply, getting stuck in a position will be hard to resolve.AMD closed around 630, breaking the trillion mark, but broker average price targets are still below the current price.
Seen: Friday's close was about 630.63, with a market cap of approximately 1.03 trillion USD, up about 1.9 times this year.
Data center revenue last quarter was about 6.7 billion USD, more than doubling year-over-year, already accounting for about 60% of total revenue.
Simply put: the story is still charging ahead, but the sell-side average price target is about 619, which is lower than the current price; on the same day, Bank of America raised its target from 620 to 720.
On the other hand, OpenAI and Meta hold about 320 million stock options combined, which if fully exercised would dilute roughly 20%.
My view: don’t just shout about the trillion mark; what really matters is the dilution pace and whether next year's guidance falters.
My approach: treat it as an observation position first, don’t chase pulses above 630; only consider light positions if volume supports a steady hold around 650.
Invalidation conditions: daily chart falls below about 600, or a clear cut in Q3 guidance.
Do you believe this is the second curve of AI computing power, or do you think the valuation is already overextended and it’s better not to chase yet?
$AMD $NVDA $ARM
#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver: MicronEarningsApproaching, AIStorageDemandInFocusHello Du Ge, I officially started trading in the crypto space on September 15. I had some basic experience with fund and stock trading before, but it was very shallow. By luck, I grew 20u to 160u. However, around 1 PM today, I saw that Mars coin mar on X, and I went long on a 20× contract. The total amount at that time was 185u, with an unrealized loss of about 24u. At the same time, I also went long on mubarak, which had an unrealized profit of several tens of u, but I didn’t take profits in time. As a result, both of these positions dropped a lot this afternoon and were forcibly liquidated, bringing me back to 20u. I feel a bit lost and empty inside. Could you please give me some advice? Sorry to bother you. -- Spend one year focusing solely on BTC, knowing all its candlestick charts inside and out, ideally memorizing them. Spend 8 hours a day studying candlesticks and position management, repeatedly opening small trades and constantly verifying what you’ve learned, reviewing your trades countless times. Combining this with AI will speed up mastering a single asset thoroughly. After that, you can use what you learned for the rest of your life and expand it to other assets. After this year, BTC will become your cash machine, and trading will be your cash machine. More importantly, you will understand yourself better and find your niche in the industry’s ecosystem. Trading is one of the best training grounds; here you can see the world, see people, and most importantly, see yourself. If you enter the space just to chase quick opportunities, grabbing this and that, five years, or even eight to ten years later, you will find you have achieved nothing. You will be little different from when you first entered, only having lost more money and not found the reasons, blaming everything on manipulative whales.This Wednesday at 20:30, BEA will release August personal income and spending data. The market is not really trading the headline PCE, but the core PCE — prices excluding food and energy, the Fed's official 2% target anchor.
July data: overall PCE year-over-year 3.7%, month-over-month 0.2%; core year-over-year 3.3%, month-over-month 0.2%. The consensus for August is roughly: overall year-over-year still around 3.7%, month-over-month possibly rising to 0.4%; core year-over-year 3.3%–3.4%, month-over-month 0.2%–0.3%.
Also included are personal income, real consumption, and the Q2 GDP final value. If consumption rebounds significantly month-over-month as some institutions expect, it signals to the market that demand has not truly cooled down.
The Fed just raised rates by 25bp in mid-September, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, with most dot plot members still pointing to at least one more hike this year. If core PCE sticks at 0.3% month-over-month and rises to 3.4% year-over-year, the pricing for an October rate hike will immediately intensify, with short-term US Treasuries and the dollar index moving first, putting pressure on risk assets.
If core unexpectedly falls to 0.2% month-over-month and holds steady at 3.3% year-over-year, the market will push back the "one more hike," giving gold and growth stocks some breathing room.
Year-over-year is heavily influenced by base effects; the Fed pays more attention to the three-month annualized rate and whether the services component remains sticky. Wages, housing, insurance, and medical services are the core sources of this stickiness. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据