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The most dangerous move on the chessboard is not the opponent's sacrifice, but the one you yourself miscalculate. $AAVE is currently trapped in this situation—up 4.68% in 24H, the short-term RSI has reached an overbought zone at 70.4, and the price has been pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band, with a position reading of 132%, 1.1% above the upper band. This is not strength; this is a lone soldier advancing deep into enemy lines.
My 30 years of chess experience tell me: when a piece strays too far from its own formation, it looks aggressive but has actually lost support. The mid-term Bollinger Band position is only 66%, indicating the main trend of the larger cycle hasn't caught up. There is divergence in short-, mid-, and long-term RSI—short-term is overheated at 70.4, while long-term is still struggling in the neutral zone at 55.9. This structure is called a "false offensive."
Those bullish right now are being checkmated without realizing it. The real killing move is hidden at $97.99, which is 2.9% above the current price. It’s a bait trap to lure the enemy deep. Whoever chases longs there is actively exposing their king on the opponent’s rear flank.
My move is clear: this is a standard tactical shorting opportunity, exchanging short-term overbought conditions for mid-game initiative.
📉 Short:
Entry: 97.99 (current price +2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 90.03 (-5.5%)
Take Profit 2: 87.10 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 109.29 (-14.8%)
Take Profit 1 corresponds to the mid-term Bollinger Band lower boundary, with 5.8% downside from the current price. Take Profit 2 is a deep endgame target; once the short-term speculative pawn is captured, the price will test real support downward. The stop loss is set at 109.29, 14.8% above the current price—this is not arbitrary but the last defensive line left for the opponent to turn the game around. If broken, it means I miscalculated the entire situation.
A true grandmaster doesn’t bet on direction, only on structure. $AAVE’s current structure is short-term overheated, mid-term stalemate, and long-term undecided. In this scenario, I allow room for error in my judgment but never compromise on probabilities.
When the enemy is at the gates, the greatest fear is not the opponent’s attack, but thinking you have already won. #strategyplaybookBTC continues to face pressure around 85000, giving a bearish outlook. A long upper shadow bearish candlestick near the resistance level already hinted at selling pressure at the high point. Currently, BTC price has broken below the previous low and found brief support around 82600. The overall short-term bearish pattern remains.
$ETH also fell from around the 2700 level to about 2630, but near 2650, the downward momentum of Ethereum actually slowed down significantly. The willingness of bears to follow up is not as strong as BTC.
The market will not fulfill anyone's wishes. Letting go of subjective expectations and objectively observing signals is the starting point to break free from obsession.
$ZEC #US-Iran continue negotiations on Hormuz Strait opening conditions #BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit near one-year high #This week key data includes Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE Whales admit defeat, $35 million short positions vanish into thin air
Wow! Whales holding $35 million in short positions have directly admitted defeat and exited.
This epic short squeeze and forced liquidation of ZEC is not just a big event for altcoins; panic sentiment quickly spreads, causing many shorts to become wary and start withdrawing their short positions from Bitcoin and Ethereum. Data shows that short positions in the futures market have decreased by nearly 180 million U. After whales were stopped out, market confidence in shorting was shaken, and funds flowed back into mainstream coins, giving BTC and ETH an upward boost.
Current key price levels are as follows:
- BTC current price 81650
Resistance at 83800, with heavy take-profit selling pressure between 83000-83800; support at 80200, with many long stop-loss orders near 80000.
- ETH current price 2662
Resistance at 2750, with large profit-taking sell orders between 2700-2750; support at 2540.
- SOL current price 183
Resistance at 192, support at 174.
- XRP current price 0.521
Resistance at 0.553, support at 0.492. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Week 23.86 billion USD, this is the strongest week for BTC spot ETFs in nearly a year.
US BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about 2.386 billion last week, setting the highest single-week record since October 2025. There were net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling nearly 3 billion. Institutions are continuously buying, and this signal is very clear.
But looking closer, there is a detail that seems off. The single-day net inflow dropped from 999 million on September 21 to 134 million on September 25, showing that buying momentum is rapidly weakening. Funds are still coming in, but the pace has clearly slowed down.
At the same time, BTC rose about 43.5% in Q3, potentially recording the second strongest third quarter in history, only behind the same period in 2017. Despite the price rising so much, ETF inflows are slowing down. These two signals together indicate that short-term chasing funds are decreasing.
The logic behind institutional allocation hasn’t changed; they are looking at long-term positions. But with short-term buying momentum weakening, the price loses its most direct support. If daily inflows continue to drop or turn into net outflows, correction pressure will emerge.
For BTC, 84,000 is short-term support, and strong resistance lies between 87,000 and 88,000. Don’t rush to chase in operations. The weekly ETF inflow hitting a new high is a good thing, but the decline in daily momentum is a warning. Wait for inflows to expand again or for the price to show a stabilization signal at key levels before taking action.
Do you think this wave of ETF buying can hold? #BTC spot ETF weekly inflow hits a near one-year high $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥 I have to admit, BTC's recent movement has made me reconsider my previous judgment.
📊 I used to lean towards thinking Q4 would weaken, but BTC not only held the key area, it also climbed back above the 50-week moving average and near the May high. If this trend continues, the original bearish expectations can no longer be mechanically applied.
⚠️ Of course, a breakout does not mean the trend is fully confirmed. Recently, BTC fell back from around 【87,400】 to about 【83,000】, which also shows that selling pressure above is real. The market is now testing the follow-through after the breakout.
🧠 So in the analysis ahead, I will say less "I think it will definitely do this" and more "let the price action confirm it." The market is always more honest than opinions.
🎯 For BTC, the most important thing now is not to predict Q4, but to observe whether a new structure of higher highs and higher lows can form after the breakout.
If it were you, would you stick to your original judgment or revise it based on the price? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 This beam and column haven't even been properly poured yet, but they're already rushing to cap the top—this is how dangerous $ZORA's current structure is.
It has risen 5.59% in 24 hours, looking like the facade is climbing up, but when I check its load-bearing layer: the RSI short-term cycle has reached 65.9, approaching the overbought red line, while the long-term cycle is only at 44.4. What does this mean? This is a typical mismatch between upper and lower structures—the building is getting taller, but the foundation hasn't kept up. The short-term momentum is just scaffolding, not reinforced concrete.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands again. The short-term price is already at 96% within the band, with only 0.3% margin left to the upper band, but there's a 7.3% gap below to the lower band; the mid-term is even more extreme, with the price at 101%, directly piercing the upper band, leaving a 6.5% gap below the lower band. This is not a breakout; it's a cantilever structure without long-term support, trembling with any wind. Anyone who's worked on high-rises knows that a price exceeding the upper band is like extending a balcony three meters out without reinforcing steel.
So my judgment is straightforward: this is a sell signal, not a buy signal.
At the current price of $0.01, I won't touch this level. The entry point should be 4.6% above the current price—that's the last load-bearing node of this building that hasn't been sealed, the best bidding position for short sellers. Looking down, the first target is 6.1% below the current price, the second target retreats further to 10.9% below; these two levels are my marked unloading layers. As for stop loss, place it 15.5% above; if it really gets pushed up there, it means the overall framework has been reconstructed, and I will exit immediately, not fighting the structure.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.01 (current price +4.6%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (-6.1%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (-10.9%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (+15.5%)
No matter how beautiful the design is, it can't save a foundation built with shortcuts. $ZORA currently lacks long-term load-bearing capacity, not layer upon layer of decorative facade—the people rushing to cap in the overbought zone will ultimately be buried in the building they constructed themselves.#200YuanChallenge — Phase 2 · Day 12
Balance: 49.96 | -23.95%
$ONE 5x Long: +13.11% ✅
$GRT 20x Long: -66.14% ❌
$AKE 5x Long: Holding
Today’s lesson: being right on direction isn’t enough.
20x leverage can turn a normal pullback into a major loss. Risk management comes before the next trade.
$GRT — recovery setup or more downside?
Low leverage. Tight risk. No FOMO.
NFA. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0xb7e0 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $87.32
▪ Transaction amount this time: $210,087.33
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $1,418,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +28.04% Waited a long time, finally waited for it.
I have been hoping for this drop for a whole half month.
Since the day it surged to 1800, I have been waiting for this moment.
Why am I so confident?
Next Friday the non-farm payroll data will be released, followed by the October rate hike meeting.
The probability of a rate hike has already soared from 50% to 67%, and the longer interest rates stay high, the more the overvalued AI concept stocks get squeezed.
SanDisk, a stock propped up by stories, is the first stop for capital withdrawal.
Looking at the NAND market again.
Wafer spot prices continue to fall, channel dealers are dumping goods at low prices, and the original factory prices are inverted with spot prices.
The consumer end cannot accept the current prices, but inventory is piling up.
More importantly, OpenAI suddenly announced a pause on training and testing the most advanced AI models.
Once AI development slows down, the demand expectations for chips and storage will be directly discounted.
The valuation of SanDisk propped up by AI narratives is on shaky ground.
After my professional analysis, human nature analysis, and comprehensive multi-faceted analysis, I will not easily exit this position.
At this time, you all dare not short; I don’t know when I should short.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 🔥 The most interesting part about BTC is here: its position has strengthened, but the speed hasn't kept up.
📈 After reclaiming the 50-week moving average, the market has indeed shown signs of trend improvement. In past cycles, this moving average has played an important role as a trend boundary.
🛑 But the problem is clear now: the price is less than 1% away from the previous high, yet it hasn't accelerated further. The resistance above hasn't disappeared, and rising yields continue to create headwinds for risk assets.
🌪️ This creates a very subtle situation — technically, the trend wants to go up, but the macro environment is holding it back.
🎯 So, in the medium term, I prefer to look for "confirmation" rather than "guessing." A breakout above the previous high with effective follow-through would further strengthen the logic; a fallback back into the breakout zone would require caution against a false breakout.
The market won't change direction just because we are bullish or bearish.
This time, do you think BTC is waiting for a volume breakout or a signal of a trend change? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Oil prices return to $108, Bitcoin $BTC falls below 83,000!!!
As of September 28, Bitcoin $BTC retreated to about $82,600, down about 2% in 24 hours. The direct pressure does not come from the crypto circle, but from Brent crude oil approaching $108 after Iran negotiations stalled, reigniting inflation concerns; the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, and the dollar index returned to around 101.
High oil prices, high interest rates, and a strong dollar appear simultaneously, naturally putting pressure on risk assets. Core PCE, job openings, and nonfarm payroll data will also be released this week: if inflation is high or employment is strong, expectations for rate hikes may further increase; if data weakens, a yield decline would be favorable for Bitcoin $BTC to return to $85,000. The current adjustment looks more like profit-taking triggered by macro risks rather than a sudden reversal in the crypto market fundamentals.
The short-term focus is not on guessing the bottom, but on observing the $82,000 support, ETF fund flows, and whether US Treasury yields can cool down. Continue holding the ZEC short position, bearish in the long term
The current thinking hasn't changed.
ZEC is a veteran privacy coin, and with increasing regulatory pressure, its survival space and narrative ability are being squeezed. From my average entry price to the current price around 1556, the account has some floating losses, but still within a tolerable range. The position is 2x low leverage, with a liquidation price at 3230, which is more than double the current price, so there is no risk of liquidation in the short term, giving me enough time to wait for the long-term logic to play out.
Regarding the overall market, I think BTC and ETH will pull back in the short term. The previous sentiment has mostly been released, incremental funds haven't followed, and technically there is a need for consolidation. So for now, just hold the ZEC short position and patiently wait for ETH to fall into the "golden pit".
No rush to exit this wave, let the bullets fly for a while. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Looking at this position chart, I don't even have the energy to curse anymore, just a long sigh left.
This ZHIPU position, 10x full margin long, opened at 92.72, now the mark price is 78.37. Floating loss of 63.85U, return rate -154.75%. I stare at this number with no emotional fluctuation, even a bit amused. Liquidation price is 26.94, maintenance margin rate 703%. I lie here like a vegetable, watching it drop bit by bit, too lazy to even lift a finger to close the position.
The ZEC position is even heavier, 50x full margin long, opened at 1602, now down to 1534. Floating loss of 82.82U, -210%. Maintenance margin rate also 703%, liquidation price 1350. With 50x leverage, it dropped like this, and I'm still holding on. I don't even know what I'm holding on to, maybe my ridiculous pride.
Together the two positions have a floating loss close to 150U, with just a little margin left. Maintenance margin rate 703%, meaning if it drops one more wave, I'll be wiped out on the spot. I'm even starting to look forward to the liquidation SMS, because then I won't have to struggle with whether to cut losses, the exchange will make the decision for me.
I go long, it falls; I hold on, it keeps falling. No anger, no resentment, just pure speechlessness. Feels like this market set a trap just for me, waiting for me to jump in.
Forget it, destroy it, hurry up. I don't want to struggle anymore, let it liquidate, I'm tired. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $ZEC $ETH $BTC 【BTC retraces to $2,600, why panic? All I see are opportunities】
From 87,400 down to 82,892, it looks scary, but it actually lands exactly on the 0.382 retracement level of this rally, not a cent off. No need to worry about the news: ETFs had a net purchase of 2.4 billion last week, the strongest in nearly a year; institutions are increasing positions, and the national strategic reserve bill is progressing. The only uncertainty is the Fed rate hike, but it pressures valuations, not Bitcoin's fundamentals.
Six words: support at 82,500, 80,400, 76,000; resistance at 85,250, 87,400, 90,000. The pullback is not a reversal, it's the market giving you a window to choose your seat. #BTC $BTC 🔥 The most uncomfortable market situation is not a crash, but a breakout that stubbornly refuses to rise.
📉 BTC has already reclaimed the 【May high】. Logically, market sentiment should heat up further, but now it’s less than 1% from the high, and the price is almost standing still.
🏦 Meanwhile, the macro environment is uncooperative: U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the market is starting to worry about the pressure of high interest rates on risk assets.
📈 On the other hand, the 50-week moving average has been retaken, which is another technical signal that cannot be ignored. Historically, this moving average has often been an important dividing line for the mid-term trend.
👀 So what’s most worth watching now is what happens after the “unable to rise”: will there be a sudden volume breakout, or will selling pressure reappear at the high level?
Sometimes, before a truly big market move, the market is just this quiet.
Do you think this is a buildup of strength, or the brewing of a turning point? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 It was dropping nicely, so why did you V-reverse?
$ETH dropped down to 2633.
It looked like it was about to crash further.
But then one candle shot straight back up to 2684.
That single rebound pinned me down hard.
I opened a short at 2660.56.
Now the mark price is 2684.9.
Floating loss is -91%, only 26 dollars of principal left holding on.
The liquidation price is set at 2787, just 100 dollars away from the current price.
Is it just this 20U?
If I don’t short, you just won’t go up, huh?
I checked the news and got even more pissed.
Spot ETF had a net inflow of 2.4 billion last week.
Strategy added another 95 BTC.
Oil price at 105, US bonds broke 5%, rate hike probability soared to 75%.
The macro environment is clearly crushing everything.
Yet institutions are holding real money and forcibly propping up the market.
When it dropped to 2633, I was still thinking I could make some lunch money.
Then I turned around and the candlestick showed me a sudden spike.
$BTC joined the party too, pulling from 82561 to 83424.
Everything on screen is rising, only I’m taking the hit.
Looking at -91% in my account, I’ve lost all temper. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 On-chain analysts uncovered the largest continuous Rug pull gang on the Robinhood chain: 53 projects launched within 2 months, with a total cash-out of about $18.43 million.
The scheme is highly assembly-line style: the cash-out from one project is directly transferred into the deployment wallet of the next project; almost every project is sniped for over 70% of circulating tokens right at launch; each project is bundled with 70-200 witch wallets; some even pump fake tokens first to cut losses on early investors before the real tokens come, with a single project being harvested three times repeatedly.
Top cash-outs: $CRUMBS $3.12 million, $LEGS $2.9 million, $PINK $1.44 million.
Token issuance cost about $150,000, with a 20x return. On-chain data doesn't lie; with a bit of due diligence, most traps could have been avoided.
$BTCBTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
Leader's remarks
The Trump administration is planning to launch an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all be involved, aiming to promote the use of dollar stablecoins overseas through government and private sector cooperation. The plan is still under discussion, with cooperating companies and target markets yet to be determined.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting feedback on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not about issuing coins, but an extension of dollar hegemony. The more widespread stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Tether alone holds $114.96 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term U.S. Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases for USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlements to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, making the underlying demand for stablecoins more solid. However, there is no direct short-term boost to coin prices.
My long BTC position at 82,800+ is still open, with a stop loss at 81,000 and a target between 86,000 and 88,000. This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are key; I won't take heavy positions before the data. No matter how big the stablecoin narrative is, it can't change the reality that the Fed just raised rates. No chasing highs or panic selling—waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.[Old Leek Observation]
$HBAR suddenly surged in volume today.
On September 19, it was still around $0.081.
Today, the highest price directly jumped to $0.1172, with an intraday increase close to 20%.
The trading volume also expanded from over 100 million tokens in the past few days to more than 300 million tokens.
There is a substantial catalyst behind this.
IDTrust in the Hedera ecosystem has officially entered the IBM Cloud Catalog.
Simply put, enterprises can now directly access this Hedera-based AI Agent identity infrastructure through IBM's cloud platform.
And this is not just a name drop.
The Hashgraph Group has also obtained IBM Silver Partner status and signed a global Embedded Solution Agreement.
IBM itself is still a member of the Hedera Governing Council.
So what the market is really hyping now is not just an ordinary "partnership news."
Rather, Hedera is starting to move towards enterprise AI, digital identity, and institutional infrastructure.
The technical aspect also coincides perfectly.
HBAR today directly broke through the previously long-pressed $0.10–$0.11 range.
But we need to wait for a pullback.
Entry: $0.098–$0.119
Take profit: $0.13 / $0.45 / $0.160 / $0.2
Stop loss: $0.091 $ETH eth has been quite strong recently, every time it dips, it bounces back up, especially Ethereum, even stronger than Bitcoin, it just won't go down.
There's talk about the short-term support at 2630, did the dog whales hire heavenly soldiers to guard the gate?
Such a big bearish candle can't break through it, what used to be the top resistance has now turned into a bottom support 😂
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver
$BTC remains trapped between $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in six-day ETF inflows. Strong demand, but no clear breakout yet.
$ETH is stuck around $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short remains partially open.
$SOL is outperforming, climbing $117→$122, but chasing strength here carries pullback risk.
In this choppy range, patience beats constant position flipping.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead Today's market conditions are indeed not very friendly to friends who just entered the market.
$BTC only retraced a little over 1%, and looking at the candlestick chart, it doesn't seem like a big deal.
But once you open a high leverage position, it's a completely different experience.
In my current holdings, the $ETH long position is floating at a loss of -175.56%, and the $BTC long position is floating at a loss of -104.53%.
When the candlestick moves slightly, the account's profit and loss is magnified many times over.
So I actually think it's not necessarily a bad thing for newcomers to experience a few drawdowns early on.
Because making money really isn't as simple as imagined.
Smiling when it rises, saying “MMP” when it falls—this emotional gap can only be understood through personal experience.
Old friends who have gone through several market cycles have their mindset almost tempered. New friends need to go through several declines, even big drops, to slowly understand their own risk tolerance.
Currently, my maintenance margin ratio is still relatively high, so I haven't been forcibly liquidated yet, but this state feels somewhat like standing on the edge of a cliff watching the market.
Others look at the candlestick chart:
“BTC only dropped 1%, a normal correction.”
High leverage players look at their accounts:
“Why does it feel like it dropped 10%?”
The market is just fluctuating; what really amplifies the risk is the position size.
Experiencing it early and recognizing your risk tolerance early is more important than rushing to make money.
As usual: world peace 🌍#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件 After Monday's opening, oil generally rose by about 2%. This increase basically reflects the weekend reaction to Trump's statement that he would not negotiate with Iran. However, judging from the upward trend, it has not quickly returned to the pre-Fed rate hike highs, indicating that the market believes rate hikes will still help curb the rise in oil prices.
Currently, my personal view is that WTI may hold around $100, and Brent may stay near $105. This price may fluctuate, but the room for further upward movement may not be very large. If prices continue to rise, the Fed will most likely respond with continued rate hikes.
Another point to watch is that the 10-year Treasury yield has already broken through 5.2%. The market's concern is likely that oil prices will be hard to lower in the short term, which will drive up U.S. inflation and thus prompt the Fed to maintain high interest rates.
For the U.S. stock market and $BTC, rising Treasury yields will also raise the threshold for funds to choose risk assets. When relatively low-risk assets can offer higher returns, investors need to see better profit prospects or greater upside potential to be willing to take on additional risk. This will put pressure on high valuations and assets reliant on capital inflows. NEAR is currently at $NEAR 5.016 down a sharp -6.93% today. Despite the correction the overall trend remains extremely bullish with a massive +168% gain in 30 days. The price is pulling back from the recent high of $5.580. The MA5 at $4.996 is acting as immediate support. If NEAR holds above $5.00 we can expect a quick recovery toward $5.30-$5.50. A daily close below $4.90 could trigger a deeper correction to $4.50. The 180-day performance is up +321%, so this dip might be a buying opportunity.🔥 Dropped to 【2633】 and stopped falling, now it has to pull up to 【2684】, right?
📉 I opened an ETH short at 2660.56, was pretty happy when I saw the price dropping, thinking I could finally make some lunch money from the market today.
🪓 But the candlestick suddenly shot up like a rocket. Mark price 【2684.9】, floating loss 【-91%】, account left with only 【26U】, liquidation price 【2787】.
🤡 My current state is: cut losses, afraid it will keep dropping after I cut; don't cut, another bullish candle might liquidate me directly.
🏦 The most frustrating thing is that there really is money coming into the market. Last week BTC ETF net inflow was about 【2.4 billion】, ETH ETF also about 【690 million】, institutions are still pouring money in.
😂 So next time someone tells me "if the direction is right, you can make money," I'll be the first to disagree. Futures are just an entry ticket; even if the direction is right, wrong position sizing will still get you beaten.
Brothers, give me the honest truth: this 26U, will you save it or just accept it? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 I think October is more inclined towards a corrective downtrend consolidation. Some good mainstream altcoins as well as leveraged trading on Bitcoin and Ethereum can be gradually accumulated in batches.
As I always say, don’t short any altcoins, especially those with strong applications; if you want to short, only Bitcoin is an option.
The community has already opened spot hedging short positions around 86000 and is still holding them, looking at the wave 2 pullback on the weekly level. Currently, there are two supports under observation, watching if the spot buying volume can follow.
If it holds, I will close the short positions and continue buying spot Bitcoin and Ethereum, then open a low-leverage long-term long position to hold.
For altcoins, I do not use any leveraged trading, only spot strategies. First, because the market is highly volatile, and second, for long-term holdings, funding fees are also a considerable cost. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus 🔥 I finally understand what it means when the market is "specifically watching your stop loss."
📊 When ETH dropped to 【2633】, my short position average price was 【2660.56】, and the picture of floating profit was already playing in my mind. But not long after, the price directly pulled back to 【2684】.
💀 Now the mark price is 【2684.9】, floating loss is 【-91%】, remaining principal is 【26U】, and liquidation price is 【2787】. This is no longer a question of profit or loss, but whether the account can survive.
🐳 Meanwhile, the market is still supported by institutional funds. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about 【2.4 billion USD】, and ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of about 【690 million USD】.
😮💨 So you will find that although the macro view looks very bearish, the market may not immediately drop. The market is not only composed of your logic but also includes capital, positions, liquidations, and sentiment.
🧠 The lesson this trade taught me today is: directional judgment only decides which side you stand on, but position size determines whether you can survive until the answer appears.
Have you ever had the experience of "clearly being right, but almost getting wiped out"? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $UNI: Short
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 8.90-8.95 range (near MA5/MA10) and then enter short after resistance.
· The initial target is 8.63 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at 8.50-8.00. Set stop loss above 9.05.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, MA5 (8.932), MA10 (8.980), and MA20 (9.270) are diverging downward, price is far below the moving averages, forming a strong resistance zone above.
2. Pattern breakdown with volume: From the high of 10.95, a cliff-like plunge broke multiple supports; the decline accompanied by volume indicates bears fully dominate momentum. The current low-level consolidation is a typical downward continuation pattern.
3. Bollinger Band suppression: Price runs along the lower band (8.622). Although there is short-term oversold rebound demand, the middle band (9.270) slopes downward, creating strong resistance. After a weak rebound, the downtrend is likely to continue.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The ETHUSDSHORTS metric deserves special attention. Its logic is the same as BTCUSDSHORTS from the previous post, but it only concerns shorts on ETH on Bitfinex. If for $BTC on Bitfinex shorts are currently being accumulated, then for $ETH they are actively being closed by holders. On the chart, we see a complete absorption of the metric's growth, which was actively happening from September 21-27. This does NOT necessarily mean that Bitfinex's "smart money" believes in "only up from now on." In general, this whole movement looks like an anomaly even on the week$FIL is making storage easier for AI Agents. 🤖
One setup can work across Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Copilot and more.
Agents create and use data. Filecoin stores it long-term.
Maybe $FIL is becoming more than a “storage coin” — it could be part of AI’s data infrastructure. 🚀
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #HormuzTermsInFocus 🔷 $SCR : zkEVM Layer-2
• zkEVM L2 on Ethereum with full EVM equivalence
• Contract migration without code rewriting
• OpenVM — transition to Type-1 zkEVM and Stage-1 rollup (11/2026)
• Fee reduction through zk-rollup
• ZK API keys: access to 30+ frontier models
• Open source on GitHub
🧠 Full EVM compatibility via zk-proofs. OpenVM and Type-1 zkEVM in November 2026 — evolution to Stage-1 rollup. But competition is tough
❓ Will it maintain its share through technology?👇$ETH was bought from the bottom at 2635.78 to the high at 2697.77,
no position was closed,
set a breakeven stop loss,
just a few candles hit it,
after hitting it, it immediately pulled back up,
indeed, you can't be greedy,
a trend without a pullback
is still quite hard to encounter,
I'm still more suited for short-term trading,
take a quick taste and run,
the trend is too difficult to trade,
if you don't set a stop loss,
every trade feels like you have to hold the position,
so set a stop loss,
one spike directly hits the stop loss point,
then immediately pulls back up,
you tell me if that's frustrating or not,
widen the stop loss,
two stop loss hits can wipe out more than half of the total position loss.$ATOM (1H) – Downtrend Continuation
Bias: SHORT
Entry Zone: 1.720 – 1.750
Stop Loss: 1.812
TP1: 1.681
TP2: 1.620
TP3: 1.550
Why this setup:
Clean breakdown sequence breaching multiple local supports. Supertrend sitting at $1.812 acts as macro overhead resistance for this trend leg.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus 🪙 BTC
On BTC, we're seeing a break out of the structure ✔️
It's unlikely we'll manage to get back into the structure and hold there on the current candle, so I'm personally preparing to catch a bounce from the nearest support zone at 81,650–80,740.
That said, I'm not marking a new resistance zone yet either. It's better to wait on that, so I'll come back with an update later 🤝 $BTC ZEC short bias! 🐻
With bulls sitting on roughly $123M in unrealized profits and a much lower average cost around $1,087, late entries carry higher pullback risk.
Early holders can take profit into weakness, while chasing here could leave new buyers absorbing the selling pressure.
I’m positioned short and watching the downside closely. DYOR.#ZECNears1700NewHigh #PCEAndPayrollsWeek ETH fell below 2610, the trend is broken
BTC fell below 81000, trend broken
The volatile range that was hard to break out of will come back again. If there is no strong rebound with heavy turnover buying near this position, it feels like the bull market will end early
Hype, UNI, and others have all been dragged down by the market, and are even weaker. For now, no entry, not trying to catch the bottom rebound, waiting for the trend to stabilize to profit from the range.
Lost 300U today, staying calm for now, keeping clear-headed, waiting for the opportunity to enter $BTC $ETH ⚠️ $ZEC at a Critical Zone — Huge Unrealized Profits Raise the Risk of a Pullback ⚠️ $ZEC — Big Unrealized Profits, Bigger Pullback Risk? $ZEC bulls are reportedly sitting on around 123M U in unrealized profits, with some positions built around an average cost near 1,087. That’s a huge cushion. But when price is hundreds of points above those entries, every sharp pullback can become an opportunity for early holders to lock in profits. The risk for late buyers is different: chasing after a maj$XDP Today's TGE｜Doppler Finance
In a nutshell: Create a treasury for XRP/RLUSD to earn interest; tokens are used for staking to gain permissions and governance, with a security module coming later.
Key numbers • Total supply 1 billion (fixed supply) • About 100 million circulating at TGE, roughly 10% • 100 million airdropped fully unlocked today • Team 18% + investors 16% + partners 4%, locked for 12 months then vested • Ecosystem 43%, released over up to 60 months
Market info Current price about $0.03 Circulating market cap about 30 million FDV about 300 million
Outlook The internal pool can't be dumped in the short term. Opening volatility mainly depends on airdrop unlocking. The real focus later is on the ecosystem emission schedule and when staking rules are implemented. Just launched, with just over a thousand token-holding addresses, the chips are very fresh.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: When choosing long-term targets, do you value income, business model, or valuation the most?
For long-term targets, my priority is: business model > income > valuation.
Valuation is last, not because it’s unimportant, but because it only determines "how much to buy and when to buy," not "whether to hold long-term." A low valuation might be a value trap, and a high valuation might become cheaper as it rises—the key is whether it can keep getting stronger.
Income ranks second. Income validates the business model; if people pay real money, it means the product has genuine demand. But income is cyclical and can be manipulated, so you can’t just look at one quarter.
The business model is first. I only look at one thing: is it very likely to still be alive in five years? And will it be better off? BTC’s moat is consensus and computing power; ETH’s moat is developer ecosystem and network effects. These things aren’t built by whitepaper hype but by time.
I used to buy “low valuation” coins just because they were cheap, only to see them slowly drop to zero. Later I realized: cheap is not a reason to buy; the ability to keep making money is.
First, see if you can understand the business model, then check if the income is real and sustainable, and finally use valuation to decide position size. Valuation decides how much money I put in, not whether I believe in it.[Old Chive Observation]
$RHEA has really gone crazy these days.
It was still around $0.02 on September 20.
On September 24, it broke through $0.08.
By September 27, it surged directly to around $0.20.
In just one week, the price increased nearly 10 times.
And the trading volume hasn't stayed still either.
On September 20, the single-day trading volume was only about $3 million.
By September 27, it expanded directly to over $18.5 million.
Today, the highest price surged again to $0.1966.
Now it's about $0.16.
But this time, RHEA is not just the coin price rising.
Rhea Finance's TVL has already reached about $283 million, increasing over 120% in the past 30 days.
The fees in the past 30 days are also around $700,000.
It is itself a core DeFi project in the NEAR ecosystem, including products like trading, lending, yield, cross-chain, and perpetuals.
So when funds poured in this time, it wasn't just about a small coin.
It was about NEAR DeFi starting to have capital activity again.
Of course, after rising to this level, the biggest risk is also obvious.
$0.02 on September 20.
Now $0.16.
This kind of trend is no longer just a normal pullback of a few points, but could have violent fluctuations of tens of percentage points at any time.
Traders who have taken profits need to learn to take profits and exit their principal 🔥 The most heartbreaking moment of shorting: it's not that you saw it wrong, but that you saw it right, and it just won't let you make money.
📉 When ETH dropped to 【2633】, my short position felt incredibly comfortable. Entered at 2660.56, I even started fantasizing about how much profit I could make from this trade.
💥 The next second, the candlestick bounced straight back from the floor to 【2684】. Now the mark price is 【2684.9】, floating loss is 【-91%】, only 【26U】 margin left, liquidation line at 【2787】.
🧨 This is the harsh reality of contracts: whether the spot price falls or not is one thing, but whether you can withstand the volatility is another.
🏦 Even more ironically, ETF funds are still flowing in. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about 【2.4 billion】, institutional demand hasn't completely disappeared due to short-term fluctuations.
🧠 So my biggest takeaway this time isn't "Why did ETH rise again," but that when your position is too heavy, even a correct judgment can turn into a wrong outcome.
Brothers, for a position that’s just 100 dollars away from forced liquidation, do you dare to hold on? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Day 29, single-day loss of 29,022.67 yuan. Cumulative loss dropped to -34,400 yuan. Four consecutive days of losses, each day worse than the last. $BTC $ETH
On September 27, Bitcoin consolidated narrowly above $84,000, with a 24-hour increase of only +0.14% and a volatility of less than 1%. Ethereum hovered around $2,700, with a 24-hour gain narrowing to 0.45%. The market appears calm on the surface, but beneath the water is a sea of blood.
Calm on the surface, corpses everywhere underwater. In the past 24 hours, 66,222 people were liquidated across the network, totaling $156 million, with short liquidations at $84.49 million and long liquidations at $71.48 million. Ethereum short liquidations were $8.3 million, Bitcoin short liquidations were $11.44 million.
And the root of all this is the knife hanging overhead. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. CME shows about a 50% chance of a rate hike in October, and nearly a 90% chance of another hike within the year. US-Iran negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz broke down during the UN General Assembly, keeping oil prices at $103.94 per barrel, with geopolitical risk premiums remaining high. The US dollar strengthens, and the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets continues to rise.$ETH market showed slight panic today, what’s next? Taking $ETH as an example, I think the probability of a rebound to 2700 is higher than breaking below 2600. Although we see some whales gradually opening short positions on $ETH, under such heavy selling and short pressure, 2600 has always held. I don’t believe the upcoming sell-off will be more intense than today’s. On the contrary, bottom-fishing funds coming in will push the price up to 2700! $XAU Bounce at 4110, confirmation at 4200, admit mistake if below 4100
Today, gold dropped directly from 4260 to 4120,
just approaching the 4100–4112 support zone where buying repeatedly appeared this year.
My judgment is: around 4100, it's a rebound from overselling, not a bottom-fishing for a big gold bull market.
Why did it fall so sharply this time?
The core reason is the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening together, with the market re-pricing the Fed's hawkish bias.
Gold itself yields no interest; when real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.
So the drop from 4280 is essentially a clearing of the interest rate logic.
But near 4100, I am willing to buy, and the reason is simple:
A drop of over 120 dollars in one day means short sellers have accumulated substantial profits, and technically it has entered an oversold area.
Plus, 4100 is a round number, and nearby there is the 4074–4112 historical support zone, making it easy for short sellers to take profits and for bottom-fishing funds to enter in the short term.
Next steps:
4110–4120, look for a bullish rebound.
First target 4180–4200; if it can hold here, then look at 4230–4260.
If the rebound faces obvious resistance near 4200, reduce positions first and do not treat the oversold rebound as a trend reversal.
The most critical support below is: 4100 must not be broken.
If it breaks below 4100 and then loses 4088, this rebound logic fails.
This week also has PCE and Nonfarm data; volatility will significantly increase before and after the data, so do not use high leverage to bet on direction. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🔥 The afternoon was dropping nicely, so why did you V up?!
📉 ETH smashed all the way down to 【2633】, I thought finally the shorts would get some profit. But then a single line pulled it straight up to 【2684】, I opened a short at 2660.56, instantly going from "ready to eat boxed lunch" to "ready to pay tuition".
💀 Mark price 【2684.9】, floating loss already at 【-91%】, only 【26U】 left in the account holding on, liquidation price 【2787】 right above my head.
📊 The most frustrating thing is, macro clearly has a lot of pressure: ETF funds are still flowing in, Strategy keeps buying BTC, oil prices and US bond yields are high. Yet institutions put real money in to support, and ETH just pressed the shorts back to the floor.
😂 BTC isn’t idle either, pulling from 【82561】 up to 【83424】. The screen is full of rebounds, and I’m the only one figuring out how to save the last 26U.
Brothers, I really get it now: the worst thing for contracts isn’t being wrong on direction, it’s when the direction is just right and the market suddenly V’s on you.
When you face this kind of trade, do you hold on or just admit defeat? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $NVDA just launched its Open Agent Safety Platform, built around one idea: AI agents that work for hours or days need defined permissions, not blind trust.
OpenShell enforces access limits, while BlueField-4 and DOCA monitor from outside the agent's reach.
As agents start handling real data and systems, control infrastructure may soon become just as valuable as the models themselves."Three Key Questions About BTC"
Funds are buying, so why is the price retreating?
1: Exchange net outflows hit a one-year high, why isn't the price rising?
In the past 7 days, the daily average net outflow was 16,100 BTC, yet the price fell below 83,000. Net outflow does not equal new buying; chips are shifting to long-term custody, futures long advantage dropped from 7.6 to 1.4, buyers did not follow through.
2: Greed index at 75, but BTC market dominance falls, who is bleeding it?
Sentiment rose from 30 to 75, market dominance dropped to 53.8% and is declining. Funds are spreading beyond BTC; ETH and SOL also fell. Greed does not mean BTC exclusively enjoys liquidity.
3: Institutions buying at 85,000, geopolitical pressure, who wins?
Institutions increased holdings near 85,000, positions exceed 27,000 BTC. But after the Hormuz ceasefire was rejected, Nasdaq, gold, and BTC all fell; QCP said widespread deleveraging is occurring. Whether institutional buying can withstand selling pressure is the core contradiction.
Observation: If it breaks below 82,500, it will move lower; resistance at 84,100.
Tonight, institutions are buying, geopolitics are pressuring, who will BTC follow?
$BTC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $ZEC longs and shorts have been played to the extreme, really smooth. When a position is entered, the bulls resist stubbornly, and the bears smile.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has been continuously falling from the high of 1697, with consecutive bearish candles, breaking below all short-term moving averages, indicating a weakening bullish trend. Resistance above is at 1628, short-term support at 1530, currently testing the effectiveness of this support.
On the 15-minute level, a large bearish candle quickly pushed the price down to a low of 1520. The RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, with short-term selling pressure being released. Short-term resistance is at 1543; if a rebound cannot hold above this level, the downward pressure will continue.
Outlook: Holding the 1530 support will bring a technical rebound; if broken, the downside space will further open. Privacy coins are highly volatile; oversold conditions do not mean an immediate reversal, so avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
Invest cautiously. $PONS dropped 11.36% in one day, currently priced at 0.5199, having retraced 46% from the 90-day high. This is not just a pullback; it's a whole trend moving downward. Selling pressure is still pouring in heavily, and the market shows no sign of decent support. What's worse is that it only has USDT perpetual contracts and no spot market, so the price is entirely determined by the contract market, with no one to hold the bottom when it falls. I am bearish for the next 24 hours; $PONS will continue to look for support lower, don't expect it to reverse on its own.Lost on both $MU and $XAUT trades, so I'm done playing for now
I think I've developed a mental block; every time around $600, I want to quickly push to $1000, opening several positions which leads to a big drawdown
Taking a few days off from trading, waiting for the right opportunity
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据