Orbit Post Sitemap
It was dropping nicely, so why did you V-reverse?
$ETH dropped down to 2633.
It looked like it was about to crash further.
But then one candle shot straight back up to 2684.
That single rebound pinned me down hard.
I opened a short at 2660.56.
Now the mark price is 2684.9.
Floating loss is -91%, only 26 dollars of principal left holding on.
The liquidation price is set at 2787, just 100 dollars away from the current price.
Is it just this 20U?
If I don’t short, you just won’t go up, huh?
I checked the news and got even more pissed.
Spot ETF had a net inflow of 2.4 billion last week.
Strategy added another 95 BTC.
Oil price at 105, US bonds broke 5%, rate hike probability soared to 75%.
The macro environment is clearly crushing everything.
Yet institutions are holding real money and forcibly propping up the market.
When it dropped to 2633, I was still thinking I could make some lunch money.
Then I turned around and the candlestick showed me a sudden spike.
$BTC joined the party too, pulling from 82561 to 83424.
Everything on screen is rising, only I’m taking the hit.
Looking at -91% in my account, I’ve lost all temper. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 On-chain analysts uncovered the largest continuous Rug pull gang on the Robinhood chain: 53 projects launched within 2 months, with a total cash-out of about $18.43 million.
The scheme is highly assembly-line style: the cash-out from one project is directly transferred into the deployment wallet of the next project; almost every project is sniped for over 70% of circulating tokens right at launch; each project is bundled with 70-200 witch wallets; some even pump fake tokens first to cut losses on early investors before the real tokens come, with a single project being harvested three times repeatedly.
Top cash-outs: $CRUMBS $3.12 million, $LEGS $2.9 million, $PINK $1.44 million.
Token issuance cost about $150,000, with a 20x return. On-chain data doesn't lie; with a bit of due diligence, most traps could have been avoided.
$BTCBTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
Leader's remarks
The Trump administration is planning to launch an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all be involved, aiming to promote the use of dollar stablecoins overseas through government and private sector cooperation. The plan is still under discussion, with cooperating companies and target markets yet to be determined.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting feedback on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not about issuing coins, but an extension of dollar hegemony. The more widespread stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Tether alone holds $114.96 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term U.S. Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases for USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlements to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, making the underlying demand for stablecoins more solid. However, there is no direct short-term boost to coin prices.
My long BTC position at 82,800+ is still open, with a stop loss at 81,000 and a target between 86,000 and 88,000. This week's PCE and non-farm payrolls are key; I won't take heavy positions before the data. No matter how big the stablecoin narrative is, it can't change the reality that the Fed just raised rates. No chasing highs or panic selling—waiting for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.[Old Leek Observation]
$HBAR suddenly surged in volume today.
On September 19, it was still around $0.081.
Today, the highest price directly jumped to $0.1172, with an intraday increase close to 20%.
The trading volume also expanded from over 100 million tokens in the past few days to more than 300 million tokens.
There is a substantial catalyst behind this.
IDTrust in the Hedera ecosystem has officially entered the IBM Cloud Catalog.
Simply put, enterprises can now directly access this Hedera-based AI Agent identity infrastructure through IBM's cloud platform.
And this is not just a name drop.
The Hashgraph Group has also obtained IBM Silver Partner status and signed a global Embedded Solution Agreement.
IBM itself is still a member of the Hedera Governing Council.
So what the market is really hyping now is not just an ordinary "partnership news."
Rather, Hedera is starting to move towards enterprise AI, digital identity, and institutional infrastructure.
The technical aspect also coincides perfectly.
HBAR today directly broke through the previously long-pressed $0.10–$0.11 range.
But we need to wait for a pullback.
Entry: $0.098–$0.119
Take profit: $0.13 / $0.45 / $0.160 / $0.2
Stop loss: $0.091 $ETH eth has been quite strong recently, every time it dips, it bounces back up, especially Ethereum, even stronger than Bitcoin, it just won't go down.
There's talk about the short-term support at 2630, did the dog whales hire heavenly soldiers to guard the gate?
Such a big bearish candle can't break through it, what used to be the top resistance has now turned into a bottom support 😂
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver
$BTC remains trapped between $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in six-day ETF inflows. Strong demand, but no clear breakout yet.
$ETH is stuck around $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short remains partially open.
$SOL is outperforming, climbing $117→$122, but chasing strength here carries pullback risk.
In this choppy range, patience beats constant position flipping.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead Today's market conditions are indeed not very friendly to friends who just entered the market.
$BTC only retraced a little over 1%, and looking at the candlestick chart, it doesn't seem like a big deal.
But once you open a high leverage position, it's a completely different experience.
In my current holdings, the $ETH long position is floating at a loss of -175.56%, and the $BTC long position is floating at a loss of -104.53%.
When the candlestick moves slightly, the account's profit and loss is magnified many times over.
So I actually think it's not necessarily a bad thing for newcomers to experience a few drawdowns early on.
Because making money really isn't as simple as imagined.
Smiling when it rises, saying “MMP” when it falls—this emotional gap can only be understood through personal experience.
Old friends who have gone through several market cycles have their mindset almost tempered. New friends need to go through several declines, even big drops, to slowly understand their own risk tolerance.
Currently, my maintenance margin ratio is still relatively high, so I haven't been forcibly liquidated yet, but this state feels somewhat like standing on the edge of a cliff watching the market.
Others look at the candlestick chart:
“BTC only dropped 1%, a normal correction.”
High leverage players look at their accounts:
“Why does it feel like it dropped 10%?”
The market is just fluctuating; what really amplifies the risk is the position size.
Experiencing it early and recognizing your risk tolerance early is more important than rushing to make money.
As usual: world peace 🌍#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #OpenAI与Anthropic调查数万起AI安全事件 After Monday's opening, oil generally rose by about 2%. This increase basically reflects the weekend reaction to Trump's statement that he would not negotiate with Iran. However, judging from the upward trend, it has not quickly returned to the pre-Fed rate hike highs, indicating that the market believes rate hikes will still help curb the rise in oil prices.
Currently, my personal view is that WTI may hold around $100, and Brent may stay near $105. This price may fluctuate, but the room for further upward movement may not be very large. If prices continue to rise, the Fed will most likely respond with continued rate hikes.
Another point to watch is that the 10-year Treasury yield has already broken through 5.2%. The market's concern is likely that oil prices will be hard to lower in the short term, which will drive up U.S. inflation and thus prompt the Fed to maintain high interest rates.
For the U.S. stock market and $BTC, rising Treasury yields will also raise the threshold for funds to choose risk assets. When relatively low-risk assets can offer higher returns, investors need to see better profit prospects or greater upside potential to be willing to take on additional risk. This will put pressure on high valuations and assets reliant on capital inflows. NEAR is currently at $NEAR 5.016 down a sharp -6.93% today. Despite the correction the overall trend remains extremely bullish with a massive +168% gain in 30 days. The price is pulling back from the recent high of $5.580. The MA5 at $4.996 is acting as immediate support. If NEAR holds above $5.00 we can expect a quick recovery toward $5.30-$5.50. A daily close below $4.90 could trigger a deeper correction to $4.50. The 180-day performance is up +321%, so this dip might be a buying opportunity.🔥 Dropped to 【2633】 and stopped falling, now it has to pull up to 【2684】, right?
📉 I opened an ETH short at 2660.56, was pretty happy when I saw the price dropping, thinking I could finally make some lunch money from the market today.
🪓 But the candlestick suddenly shot up like a rocket. Mark price 【2684.9】, floating loss 【-91%】, account left with only 【26U】, liquidation price 【2787】.
🤡 My current state is: cut losses, afraid it will keep dropping after I cut; don't cut, another bullish candle might liquidate me directly.
🏦 The most frustrating thing is that there really is money coming into the market. Last week BTC ETF net inflow was about 【2.4 billion】, ETH ETF also about 【690 million】, institutions are still pouring money in.
😂 So next time someone tells me "if the direction is right, you can make money," I'll be the first to disagree. Futures are just an entry ticket; even if the direction is right, wrong position sizing will still get you beaten.
Brothers, give me the honest truth: this 26U, will you save it or just accept it? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 I think October is more inclined towards a corrective downtrend consolidation. Some good mainstream altcoins as well as leveraged trading on Bitcoin and Ethereum can be gradually accumulated in batches.
As I always say, don’t short any altcoins, especially those with strong applications; if you want to short, only Bitcoin is an option.
The community has already opened spot hedging short positions around 86000 and is still holding them, looking at the wave 2 pullback on the weekly level. Currently, there are two supports under observation, watching if the spot buying volume can follow.
If it holds, I will close the short positions and continue buying spot Bitcoin and Ethereum, then open a low-leverage long-term long position to hold.
For altcoins, I do not use any leveraged trading, only spot strategies. First, because the market is highly volatile, and second, for long-term holdings, funding fees are also a considerable cost. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus 🔥 I finally understand what it means when the market is "specifically watching your stop loss."
📊 When ETH dropped to 【2633】, my short position average price was 【2660.56】, and the picture of floating profit was already playing in my mind. But not long after, the price directly pulled back to 【2684】.
💀 Now the mark price is 【2684.9】, floating loss is 【-91%】, remaining principal is 【26U】, and liquidation price is 【2787】. This is no longer a question of profit or loss, but whether the account can survive.
🐳 Meanwhile, the market is still supported by institutional funds. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about 【2.4 billion USD】, and ETH ETFs recorded a net inflow of about 【690 million USD】.
😮💨 So you will find that although the macro view looks very bearish, the market may not immediately drop. The market is not only composed of your logic but also includes capital, positions, liquidations, and sentiment.
🧠 The lesson this trade taught me today is: directional judgment only decides which side you stand on, but position size determines whether you can survive until the answer appears.
Have you ever had the experience of "clearly being right, but almost getting wiped out"? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $UNI: Short
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 8.90-8.95 range (near MA5/MA10) and then enter short after resistance.
· The initial target is 8.63 (24-hour low); if broken effectively, then look at 8.50-8.00. Set stop loss above 9.05.
Core basis:
1. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 1-hour level, MA5 (8.932), MA10 (8.980), and MA20 (9.270) are diverging downward, price is far below the moving averages, forming a strong resistance zone above.
2. Pattern breakdown with volume: From the high of 10.95, a cliff-like plunge broke multiple supports; the decline accompanied by volume indicates bears fully dominate momentum. The current low-level consolidation is a typical downward continuation pattern.
3. Bollinger Band suppression: Price runs along the lower band (8.622). Although there is short-term oversold rebound demand, the middle band (9.270) slopes downward, creating strong resistance. After a weak rebound, the downtrend is likely to continue.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 The ETHUSDSHORTS metric deserves special attention. Its logic is the same as BTCUSDSHORTS from the previous post, but it only concerns shorts on ETH on Bitfinex. If for $BTC on Bitfinex shorts are currently being accumulated, then for $ETH they are actively being closed by holders. On the chart, we see a complete absorption of the metric's growth, which was actively happening from September 21-27. This does NOT necessarily mean that Bitfinex's "smart money" believes in "only up from now on." In general, this whole movement looks like an anomaly even on the week$FIL is making storage easier for AI Agents. 🤖
One setup can work across Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Copilot and more.
Agents create and use data. Filecoin stores it long-term.
Maybe $FIL is becoming more than a “storage coin” — it could be part of AI’s data infrastructure. 🚀
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh #HormuzTermsInFocus 🔷 $SCR : zkEVM Layer-2
• zkEVM L2 on Ethereum with full EVM equivalence
• Contract migration without code rewriting
• OpenVM — transition to Type-1 zkEVM and Stage-1 rollup (11/2026)
• Fee reduction through zk-rollup
• ZK API keys: access to 30+ frontier models
• Open source on GitHub
🧠 Full EVM compatibility via zk-proofs. OpenVM and Type-1 zkEVM in November 2026 — evolution to Stage-1 rollup. But competition is tough
❓ Will it maintain its share through technology?👇$ETH was bought from the bottom at 2635.78 to the high at 2697.77,
no position was closed,
set a breakeven stop loss,
just a few candles hit it,
after hitting it, it immediately pulled back up,
indeed, you can't be greedy,
a trend without a pullback
is still quite hard to encounter,
I'm still more suited for short-term trading,
take a quick taste and run,
the trend is too difficult to trade,
if you don't set a stop loss,
every trade feels like you have to hold the position,
so set a stop loss,
one spike directly hits the stop loss point,
then immediately pulls back up,
you tell me if that's frustrating or not,
widen the stop loss,
two stop loss hits can wipe out more than half of the total position loss.$ATOM (1H) – Downtrend Continuation
Bias: SHORT
Entry Zone: 1.720 – 1.750
Stop Loss: 1.812
TP1: 1.681
TP2: 1.620
TP3: 1.550
Why this setup:
Clean breakdown sequence breaching multiple local supports. Supertrend sitting at $1.812 acts as macro overhead resistance for this trend leg.
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus 🪙 BTC
On BTC, we're seeing a break out of the structure ✔️
It's unlikely we'll manage to get back into the structure and hold there on the current candle, so I'm personally preparing to catch a bounce from the nearest support zone at 81,650–80,740.
That said, I'm not marking a new resistance zone yet either. It's better to wait on that, so I'll come back with an update later 🤝 $BTC ZEC short bias! 🐻
With bulls sitting on roughly $123M in unrealized profits and a much lower average cost around $1,087, late entries carry higher pullback risk.
Early holders can take profit into weakness, while chasing here could leave new buyers absorbing the selling pressure.
I’m positioned short and watching the downside closely. DYOR.#ZECNears1700NewHigh #PCEAndPayrollsWeek ETH fell below 2610, the trend is broken
BTC fell below 81000, trend broken
The volatile range that was hard to break out of will come back again. If there is no strong rebound with heavy turnover buying near this position, it feels like the bull market will end early
Hype, UNI, and others have all been dragged down by the market, and are even weaker. For now, no entry, not trying to catch the bottom rebound, waiting for the trend to stabilize to profit from the range.
Lost 300U today, staying calm for now, keeping clear-headed, waiting for the opportunity to enter $BTC $ETH ⚠️ $ZEC at a Critical Zone — Huge Unrealized Profits Raise the Risk of a Pullback ⚠️ $ZEC — Big Unrealized Profits, Bigger Pullback Risk? $ZEC bulls are reportedly sitting on around 123M U in unrealized profits, with some positions built around an average cost near 1,087. That’s a huge cushion. But when price is hundreds of points above those entries, every sharp pullback can become an opportunity for early holders to lock in profits. The risk for late buyers is different: chasing after a maj$XDP Today's TGE｜Doppler Finance
In a nutshell: Create a treasury for XRP/RLUSD to earn interest; tokens are used for staking to gain permissions and governance, with a security module coming later.
Key numbers • Total supply 1 billion (fixed supply) • About 100 million circulating at TGE, roughly 10% • 100 million airdropped fully unlocked today • Team 18% + investors 16% + partners 4%, locked for 12 months then vested • Ecosystem 43%, released over up to 60 months
Market info Current price about $0.03 Circulating market cap about 30 million FDV about 300 million
Outlook The internal pool can't be dumped in the short term. Opening volatility mainly depends on airdrop unlocking. The real focus later is on the ecosystem emission schedule and when staking rules are implemented. Just launched, with just over a thousand token-holding addresses, the chips are very fresh.#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Q: When choosing long-term targets, do you value income, business model, or valuation the most?
For long-term targets, my priority is: business model > income > valuation.
Valuation is last, not because it’s unimportant, but because it only determines "how much to buy and when to buy," not "whether to hold long-term." A low valuation might be a value trap, and a high valuation might become cheaper as it rises—the key is whether it can keep getting stronger.
Income ranks second. Income validates the business model; if people pay real money, it means the product has genuine demand. But income is cyclical and can be manipulated, so you can’t just look at one quarter.
The business model is first. I only look at one thing: is it very likely to still be alive in five years? And will it be better off? BTC’s moat is consensus and computing power; ETH’s moat is developer ecosystem and network effects. These things aren’t built by whitepaper hype but by time.
I used to buy “low valuation” coins just because they were cheap, only to see them slowly drop to zero. Later I realized: cheap is not a reason to buy; the ability to keep making money is.
First, see if you can understand the business model, then check if the income is real and sustainable, and finally use valuation to decide position size. Valuation decides how much money I put in, not whether I believe in it.[Old Chive Observation]
$RHEA has really gone crazy these days.
It was still around $0.02 on September 20.
On September 24, it broke through $0.08.
By September 27, it surged directly to around $0.20.
In just one week, the price increased nearly 10 times.
And the trading volume hasn't stayed still either.
On September 20, the single-day trading volume was only about $3 million.
By September 27, it expanded directly to over $18.5 million.
Today, the highest price surged again to $0.1966.
Now it's about $0.16.
But this time, RHEA is not just the coin price rising.
Rhea Finance's TVL has already reached about $283 million, increasing over 120% in the past 30 days.
The fees in the past 30 days are also around $700,000.
It is itself a core DeFi project in the NEAR ecosystem, including products like trading, lending, yield, cross-chain, and perpetuals.
So when funds poured in this time, it wasn't just about a small coin.
It was about NEAR DeFi starting to have capital activity again.
Of course, after rising to this level, the biggest risk is also obvious.
$0.02 on September 20.
Now $0.16.
This kind of trend is no longer just a normal pullback of a few points, but could have violent fluctuations of tens of percentage points at any time.
Traders who have taken profits need to learn to take profits and exit their principal 🔥 The most heartbreaking moment of shorting: it's not that you saw it wrong, but that you saw it right, and it just won't let you make money.
📉 When ETH dropped to 【2633】, my short position felt incredibly comfortable. Entered at 2660.56, I even started fantasizing about how much profit I could make from this trade.
💥 The next second, the candlestick bounced straight back from the floor to 【2684】. Now the mark price is 【2684.9】, floating loss is 【-91%】, only 【26U】 margin left, liquidation line at 【2787】.
🧨 This is the harsh reality of contracts: whether the spot price falls or not is one thing, but whether you can withstand the volatility is another.
🏦 Even more ironically, ETF funds are still flowing in. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about 【2.4 billion】, institutional demand hasn't completely disappeared due to short-term fluctuations.
🧠 So my biggest takeaway this time isn't "Why did ETH rise again," but that when your position is too heavy, even a correct judgment can turn into a wrong outcome.
Brothers, for a position that’s just 100 dollars away from forced liquidation, do you dare to hold on? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Day 29, single-day loss of 29,022.67 yuan. Cumulative loss dropped to -34,400 yuan. Four consecutive days of losses, each day worse than the last. $BTC $ETH
On September 27, Bitcoin consolidated narrowly above $84,000, with a 24-hour increase of only +0.14% and a volatility of less than 1%. Ethereum hovered around $2,700, with a 24-hour gain narrowing to 0.45%. The market appears calm on the surface, but beneath the water is a sea of blood.
Calm on the surface, corpses everywhere underwater. In the past 24 hours, 66,222 people were liquidated across the network, totaling $156 million, with short liquidations at $84.49 million and long liquidations at $71.48 million. Ethereum short liquidations were $8.3 million, Bitcoin short liquidations were $11.44 million.
And the root of all this is the knife hanging overhead. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023. CME shows about a 50% chance of a rate hike in October, and nearly a 90% chance of another hike within the year. US-Iran negotiations in the Strait of Hormuz broke down during the UN General Assembly, keeping oil prices at $103.94 per barrel, with geopolitical risk premiums remaining high. The US dollar strengthens, and the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets continues to rise.$ETH market showed slight panic today, what’s next? Taking $ETH as an example, I think the probability of a rebound to 2700 is higher than breaking below 2600. Although we see some whales gradually opening short positions on $ETH, under such heavy selling and short pressure, 2600 has always held. I don’t believe the upcoming sell-off will be more intense than today’s. On the contrary, bottom-fishing funds coming in will push the price up to 2700! $XAU Bounce at 4110, confirmation at 4200, admit mistake if below 4100
Today, gold dropped directly from 4260 to 4120,
just approaching the 4100–4112 support zone where buying repeatedly appeared this year.
My judgment is: around 4100, it's a rebound from overselling, not a bottom-fishing for a big gold bull market.
Why did it fall so sharply this time?
The core reason is the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening together, with the market re-pricing the Fed's hawkish bias.
Gold itself yields no interest; when real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.
So the drop from 4280 is essentially a clearing of the interest rate logic.
But near 4100, I am willing to buy, and the reason is simple:
A drop of over 120 dollars in one day means short sellers have accumulated substantial profits, and technically it has entered an oversold area.
Plus, 4100 is a round number, and nearby there is the 4074–4112 historical support zone, making it easy for short sellers to take profits and for bottom-fishing funds to enter in the short term.
Next steps:
4110–4120, look for a bullish rebound.
First target 4180–4200; if it can hold here, then look at 4230–4260.
If the rebound faces obvious resistance near 4200, reduce positions first and do not treat the oversold rebound as a trend reversal.
The most critical support below is: 4100 must not be broken.
If it breaks below 4100 and then loses 4088, this rebound logic fails.
This week also has PCE and Nonfarm data; volatility will significantly increase before and after the data, so do not use high leverage to bet on direction. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 🔥 The afternoon was dropping nicely, so why did you V up?!
📉 ETH smashed all the way down to 【2633】, I thought finally the shorts would get some profit. But then a single line pulled it straight up to 【2684】, I opened a short at 2660.56, instantly going from "ready to eat boxed lunch" to "ready to pay tuition".
💀 Mark price 【2684.9】, floating loss already at 【-91%】, only 【26U】 left in the account holding on, liquidation price 【2787】 right above my head.
📊 The most frustrating thing is, macro clearly has a lot of pressure: ETF funds are still flowing in, Strategy keeps buying BTC, oil prices and US bond yields are high. Yet institutions put real money in to support, and ETH just pressed the shorts back to the floor.
😂 BTC isn’t idle either, pulling from 【82561】 up to 【83424】. The screen is full of rebounds, and I’m the only one figuring out how to save the last 26U.
Brothers, I really get it now: the worst thing for contracts isn’t being wrong on direction, it’s when the direction is just right and the market suddenly V’s on you.
When you face this kind of trade, do you hold on or just admit defeat? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $NVDA just launched its Open Agent Safety Platform, built around one idea: AI agents that work for hours or days need defined permissions, not blind trust.
OpenShell enforces access limits, while BlueField-4 and DOCA monitor from outside the agent's reach.
As agents start handling real data and systems, control infrastructure may soon become just as valuable as the models themselves."Three Key Questions About BTC"
Funds are buying, so why is the price retreating?
1: Exchange net outflows hit a one-year high, why isn't the price rising?
In the past 7 days, the daily average net outflow was 16,100 BTC, yet the price fell below 83,000. Net outflow does not equal new buying; chips are shifting to long-term custody, futures long advantage dropped from 7.6 to 1.4, buyers did not follow through.
2: Greed index at 75, but BTC market dominance falls, who is bleeding it?
Sentiment rose from 30 to 75, market dominance dropped to 53.8% and is declining. Funds are spreading beyond BTC; ETH and SOL also fell. Greed does not mean BTC exclusively enjoys liquidity.
3: Institutions buying at 85,000, geopolitical pressure, who wins?
Institutions increased holdings near 85,000, positions exceed 27,000 BTC. But after the Hormuz ceasefire was rejected, Nasdaq, gold, and BTC all fell; QCP said widespread deleveraging is occurring. Whether institutional buying can withstand selling pressure is the core contradiction.
Observation: If it breaks below 82,500, it will move lower; resistance at 84,100.
Tonight, institutions are buying, geopolitics are pressuring, who will BTC follow?
$BTC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $ZEC longs and shorts have been played to the extreme, really smooth. When a position is entered, the bulls resist stubbornly, and the bears smile.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has been continuously falling from the high of 1697, with consecutive bearish candles, breaking below all short-term moving averages, indicating a weakening bullish trend. Resistance above is at 1628, short-term support at 1530, currently testing the effectiveness of this support.
On the 15-minute level, a large bearish candle quickly pushed the price down to a low of 1520. The RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, with short-term selling pressure being released. Short-term resistance is at 1543; if a rebound cannot hold above this level, the downward pressure will continue.
Outlook: Holding the 1530 support will bring a technical rebound; if broken, the downside space will further open. Privacy coins are highly volatile; oversold conditions do not mean an immediate reversal, so avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
Invest cautiously. $PONS dropped 11.36% in one day, currently priced at 0.5199, having retraced 46% from the 90-day high. This is not just a pullback; it's a whole trend moving downward. Selling pressure is still pouring in heavily, and the market shows no sign of decent support. What's worse is that it only has USDT perpetual contracts and no spot market, so the price is entirely determined by the contract market, with no one to hold the bottom when it falls. I am bearish for the next 24 hours; $PONS will continue to look for support lower, don't expect it to reverse on its own.Lost on both $MU and $XAUT trades, so I'm done playing for now
I think I've developed a mental block; every time around $600, I want to quickly push to $1000, opening several positions which leads to a big drawdown
Taking a few days off from trading, waiting for the right opportunity
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 Finally, let's wrap up by looking at the news and what to watch next. To start with the conclusion: there are no significant changes in the levels, and basically no major fluctuations. We will continue to operate according to the methods previously shared with everyone, making sure to set take-profit and stop-loss properly. The views and levels remain unchanged. What we really need to focus on next is the data week starting tomorrow night. Market overview: Bitcoin is around 83,300, Ethereum around 2,675, Solana about 118.7, Dogecoin about 0.0926, and Ripple about 1.499. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped about 1.3%, Ethereum about 0.5%, Solana about 2.6%, Dogecoin about 4.3%, and Ripple about 1.1%. Ethereum held up best today, while Dogecoin was the weakest. The replenishment points for long positions (Bitcoin 80,000, Ethereum 2,500) have not been reached yet, and the stop-loss points (78,000/75,000, 2,300) are even further away; the stop-loss for short positions (Solana 140, Dogecoin 0.12, Ripple 1.7) have also not been triggered. U.S. stock market opening: According to Gate's report, the Dow Jones opened down about 0.6% to 0.7%, the S&P down nearly 0.5%, and the Nasdaq also down nearly 0.5%. Memory and Samsung-related stocks on the watchlist are relatively weak, while Nvidia rose against the trend at the open due to announcing an additional approximately $150 billion share repurchase authorization. The crypto market is roughly in sync with the U.S. stock market opening, with no independent movements Open interest remains unchanged, funding rate starts to turn negative, long positions are fleeing, this should be the beginning of a crash, you can start shorting now, brothers Being bullish on ETH doesn't mean defending every piece of bad news
If a viewpoint only accepts positive news, it’s hard to rely on it long-term. I am optimistic about $ETH, but I don’t expect every malfunction, delay, or capital outflow to be explained as an even bigger positive. Reliable long-term judgments should allow for some local facts to be unpleasant and for some expectations not to be met as originally planned.
What truly affects judgment is whether the problem changes key conditions. A brief price pullback is different from sustained demand shrinkage; a single application failure is different from a systemic protocol-level failure; adjusting target dates is different from a decline in long-term delivery capability. First determine the level at which the problem exists, then decide whether to adjust your view to avoid switching positions based on emotions.
For ETH holders, I think the most valuable thing to keep is the ability to review. The clearer the reasons for optimism are written, the easier it is to know which data needs updating and which assumptions have weakened. Position sizing should also leave room for the unknown, rather than forcing yourself to always be bullish with all your funds.
Ethereum’s long-term competitiveness requires ongoing maintenance of engineering, user base, and capital relationships together. Supporting it does not mean endorsing every project, nor does it mean erasing every risk. If future evidence supports it, continue to increase confidence; if evidence changes, seriously revise your judgment. A bullish stance that can accept scrutiny is more powerful than slogans that never admit mistakes. The market doesn’t reward the loudest attitude; it makes everyone bear the consequences of their own judgments.Vitalik said that next year's upgrade might be the last "understandable" upgrade for Ethereum.
All subsequent upgrades will be about cryptography and quantum resistance.
Old developers won't recognize it anymore. Exciting, right? If you're an old developer, are you angry? He's so cocky.
Why change it this way?
Right now, every node has to recalculate the entire ledger.
In the future, no need to calculate it anymore,
just glance at the "I calculated correctly" proof submitted by the other party.
The result is one word: fast.
A block takes 4 to 8 seconds, eventually settling at 8 to 32 seconds.
Back in 2015, you had to wait 200 seconds, and now it still probably takes a few minutes.
Why is it still called blockchain after the change?
Vitalik said: mainly out of habit, haha, want to punch him.
Let me sound professional first:
Hegota is likely the last normal fork of Ethereum.
The testnet will launch on October 6, the mainnet is scheduled for Q4 this year but the date isn't set yet. Then comes Hegota, definitely next year.
I wrote an article this morning and will rant again tonight.
When everyone praises that last normal upgrade,
shouldn't we try to understand it differently?
A network telling you "you don't need to understand what I change in the future" is not progress, it's handing over power, it's a compromise to capital.
Speaking of speed, you've already got instant transactions on L2, who benefits from the mainnet producing blocks every few seconds?
Also, after the change, it won't be called blockchain anymore, so the competitor isn't other chains,
it's Amazon's cloud services. The faster it gets, the more computing power and storage it requires. $PONS is currently priced around $0.53–0.54, with a 24-hour decline of about 13% and a 7-day drop of about 12%; however, it still shows significant gains over the past month, indicating that this is more like a rapid pullback from a high level rather than a normal sideways consolidation.
Key Market Points
Short-term weakness: The 24-hour range is about $0.51–0.60, currently near the lower end of the range, indicating obvious selling pressure.
Around $0.51 is the first support: If there is a clear volume increase to absorb selling here, a short-term bottom may form; if it breaks down effectively, the next phase is likely to seek lower support.
$0.60–0.64 is the main resistance zone: Today it has clearly fallen back from this area, and until it can reclaim above $0.60, it is difficult to confirm a short-term rebound.
Contract leverage is relatively heavy: Currently, PONS futures trading volume is about $282 million, with open interest around $143 million, while spot trading volume is significantly lower than futures, indicating that current price fluctuations are largely influenced by contract funds.
coinglass
Previously, the average funding rate was positive, meaning longs paid shorts; during the price decline, if the funding rate continues to stay at a high positive level, caution is needed for crowded longs → further liquidation.$ZEC $BTC $SOL Previously, Bitcoin surged sharply, and most people missed out, so they opened short positions, but ended up shorting halfway up, or above 83,000. Last Friday it dropped, reaching the cost price for some people. Some thought they finally broke even, but they didn't dare to chase the long. Watching Bitcoin pull up to 85,000. Today it dropped again, everyone felt the correction was in place, suddenly feeling the correction was in place and it was time to get on board and go long. This is the retail investor mentality. The first drop indicates heavy selling pressure above; the second drop here is actually not a good place to buy more. The positions retail investors see as bullish are often just a downtrend continuation!!!#Ondo launches tokenized portfolios based on BlackRock strategies Ondo has launched Ondo Intelligent Portfolios, introducing three tokenized portfolios with underlying strategies provided by BlackRock, targeting qualified investors outside the United States. A single on-chain token can hold a basket of diversified assets, covering three allocation schemes: high yield, balanced growth, and high growth.
BlackRock only provides the model strategies and is not responsible for token custody or operations. Asset rebalancing is automatically executed by smart contracts, and holdings can be verified on-chain. After the news broke, ONDO surged significantly, becoming a landmark event in the RWA sector, representing the traditional asset management giant officially bringing mature asset allocation models on-chain, bridging traditional finance and on-chain assets.
On the risk side, the product has access restrictions, and ordinary investors cannot participate; tokenized assets are still subject to local regulatory constraints, and policy changes may affect the product's existence. Meanwhile, ONDO's short-term surge is huge, driven by sentiment, with extreme volatility.
This event is positive for the long-term narrative of the RWA sector, but do not chase the high in the short term. Focus on continuously monitoring product capital inflows and regulatory developments.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Let's organize what can be done operationally. First, the key points for this round: there are no major changes in price levels, and basically no significant fluctuations. We will operate according to the methods previously shared with everyone. Make sure to set take profit and stop loss properly. Current prices are approximately: Bitcoin 83,300, Ethereum 2,675, Solana 118.7, Dogecoin 0.0926, Ripple 1.499. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin dropped about 1.3%, Ethereum about 0.5%, Solana about 2.6%, Dogecoin about 4.3%, Ripple about 1.1%. Ethereum is the most resilient today, Dogecoin the weakest, but overall all remain within previous ranges with no new direction. Price levels remain unchanged; let's summarize again. Bitcoin: bullish bias. Add positions near 80,000, very short-term stop loss at 78,000, mid-to-long-term stop loss at 75,000. Targets are 90,000 or even 100,000, depending on individual judgment. Ethereum: bullish bias, slowly building a bottom. Add positions near 2,500, stop loss around 2,300. Solana: short position, 140 is resistance and also stop loss. Add positions as previously mentioned. Dogecoin: short near 0.1, add positions at 0.1, stop loss at 0.12. Ripple: can add short positions in batches between current price and 1.7, stop loss at 1.7. Why follow the plan? Because current prices for both sides of the trades are still within the plan. On the long side: Bitcoin Heavy positions are more fierce Wife leaves and children scatter
Floating profits add positions One trade loses everything
Frequent trading Completely meaningless
Technical analysis Eating chaff and having diarrhea
Leveraging again Direct bankruptcyThe Fear and Greed Index is at 75, but my stop loss remains at the same price.
Today the Fear and Greed Index rose to 75, up 6 points from yesterday, indicating a "greedy" state. Market sentiment is heating up quickly.
But my position hasn't changed, my stop loss hasn't moved, and I'm still holding what I should.
The index went from 70 to 75 in just a few days. Sentiment can double in a few days, but the stop loss line won't move up just because sentiment changes. The biggest mistake during greed is not buying too much, but widening the stop loss more and more—"giving it a little more room."
Giving room is fine, but it must be done before placing the order. Giving room after placing the order isn't room; it's just luck.
The index manages others' emotions; the stop loss manages my own.A Yuan's fourth day of effort: from 300u to 3000u.
Today, September 28, BTC and ETH each made 2 short trades, earning 50u.
On the fourth day of opening positions, total profit is 130u.
I mainly short. I only know a little about indicator analysis, so I basically go by feeling. Every time BTC rises about 1%, I short it. The position size is small since the principal is only 300u. The initial position is basically 30u-40u, 100x leverage, with additional positions of 20u-30u. I close positions as soon as I have profits, usually around 20u each time, to lock in gains. Don't talk about long-term strategies; with this little money, I just want to make some profit.
I hope $BTC $ETH will rise tomorrow so I can short again. There has been new progress in reflecting and reviewing during this period
Regarding position management and technical application
For small funds, the biggest thing is to go all in on the right thing
jjking lost more than ten million in less than a month but has bounced back
Really impressive. I originally thought he was just one of those KOLs who rose by taking dividends, but it turns out he’s the real deal haha
When a big market comes, having the courage to go heavy with high leverage to seize the opportunity
Just this one thing, many people think it’s very risky gambling
But actually, it’s not
This is the true essence of trading.
What is “trading” after all
It’s exchanging your viewpoint with the market
Buying the direction others don’t favor
Taking on risks others dare not bear
That’s all
It can also be one-sidedly understood as “speculation” BTC October Puzzle: The Feast of the Carvers, the Scythe of the Market Makers
The market never lacks those who carve the boat to seek the sword.
A group of BTC bulls who missed the boat are holding onto the K-line charts from the last bull market, trying to replicate the wealth formula in this cycle. They are eyeing a four-day window ahead, planning to stop-loss and short at the previous high, targeting 67000, with an extreme stop-loss set at 95000, holding the short position until September 30.
Their logic is simple: history will repeat. But they forget that the market’s greatest skill is to drown the carvers.
The real turning point is hidden in mid-October. That’s exactly 54 weeks from the start of the decline. Spot traders will timely "carve the boat" to enter, treating technical charts as the bible, collectively switching to long positions. Those who missed out won’t endure the shorts and will surrender to go long at the same time.
When all the carvers point in the same direction, the market makers’ harvesting machine has already started. Mid-October may not be a second bull market launch but a slaughterhouse for both longs and shorts—first blasting the shorts, then quietly killing the spot traders chasing longs.
The market never hands over answers because of an old chart. When everyone thinks they understand the script, the ending has often already been rewritten. October’s BTC may be waiting to teach the carvers the most expensive lesson.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC - Hourly timeframe
The low point was broken ✅ The next magnet is the weekly open imo. Suitable for scalping long positions.
Supported by range concept, local mmd, local SFP, TPO (break of low), and the upper weekly open magnet.
I made a scalping long. I don't want to share too many management details, but the idea is similar: reduce position midway, close 60/70% at the target (weekly open), stop loss if local break occurs.
Given my overall bearish preference, expecting 75k, so I manage it quite tightly.
But between the 86k entry and 75k target, this setup has room to play counter-trend.Afternoon forecast to be realized in the evening
BTC: 83794 → 83048, down about 746 points
ETH: 2697 → 2658, down about 39 points
$BTC $ETH $SOL