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Green Mao's moves today are quite interesting and worth reviewing. In the early morning, he opened 100x full-position short orders on BTC and ETH, but had to stop losses due to a rebound. He lost 236U on BTC and 138U on ETH, and considering the 39U profit from the previous night, the overall loss was over 300U. Being able to decisively cut positions and admit mistakes under 100x leverage shows a rare discipline; many people tend to stubbornly hold on at this point. However, he didn't persist stuBitget BTC 提現開了一個多小時，直播裡甩出的實時數字：大概處理了七千六百多筆申請、累計三千六百來枚 BTC，首批約六千九百筆已經鏈上確認，暫無積壓。 通道順不順，到賬速度比口號管用。有人刷著確認截圖鬆一口氣，也有人還卡在 ETH、USDT 那幾窗沒開——排程還掛著，先看這條 BTC 通道能不能一直這麼穩。 鏈上那邊還盯到開了 BSC 網路的 BTC 提現，麻了，邊跑邊加通道。A trader closed four winning $ZEC scalps on Tuesday, went to sleep expecting the market to keep paying, and woke up Wednesday to a 15-minute double-sided loss. The setup wasn't exotic: no leverage blowup, no exchange outage, no macro shock. Just a trader who mistook a good streak for a skill upgrade. That distinction is the whole story, and it's the one most $BTC and $ETH traders learn the expensive way. $ZEC has been one of the year's loudest movers, and volatility that rewards fast hands also $CORE ⚠️ SHORT UPDATE Took a quick break and came back to see the short position moving much further into profit. I had already planned to stay away from this coin, but the recent hype and aggressive promotion caught my attention. If $CORE wants to ride the same narrative as $DOGE, then I’m watching the relative performance very closely. 📉 OLD COMPARISON DOGE: ~$0.075 CORE: ~$6.4 📊 CURRENT ZONE DOGE: ~$0.091 CORE: ~$0.013 The divergence is massive, and $CORE has suffered an extreme repricing fCORE: Roadshows around the world, implementation is always on the way
Many experienced traders on overseas X platforms recently discussed CORE, revealing the illusions many have.
They said:
What you see is the CORE team flying to the US to negotiate banking business, standing at KBW Korea Blockchain Week, a screen full of grand BTC-Fi narratives, SatPay, native BTC staking — it sounds like the ultimate story of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
But beneath the surface, overseas bearish KOLs only recognize one thing: all negotiations are intentions, all products are still in testing, and all cash flow exists only in PPTs and Twitter posts.
Many convince themselves with the uniqueness of the track: this is the only financial layer for BTC, with no competitors in the field.
The overseas bloggers’ sharp retort: no matter how grand the narrative, if it cannot be converted into real on-chain revenue, it will always be just a story.
Roadshows, bank visits, offline exhibitions are essentially business PR.
Meetings ≠ signing contracts, beta testing ≠ official launch, roadmap promises ≠ stable cash flow.
The overseas community repeatedly mentions a hidden risk: the selling pressure from continuous token unlocking, which always hangs over the market.
No matter how attractive the BTC-Fi story is, the continuous unlocking of tokens will keep diluting the buying power.
Many long-term believers’ logic: wait for institutional funds to enter, wait for bank cooperation to materialize, then the market will explode.
Institutions look at projects, and the first thing they check is not the narrative but verifiable real income, stable product data, and compliant qualifications that can be implemented. $CORE Here is a revised version that resembles a mid-term intelligence report + news flash + data-driven logic, preserving the original meaning but expressed differently:
BTC Mid-Term Intelligence Rewrite
【Mid-Term Intelligence | 9.28】
🚨 $BTC has surpassed the May phase high, with the technical structure still leaning strong, but one detail deserves caution: the price is less than 1% away from the previous high, yet it has not yet expanded further.
Historically, after BTC effectively broke above the 50-week moving average, it often experienced a significant expansion of about 20%–30% within the following 1–2 weeks; however, this rally’s follow-up gains have been relatively restrained, and market disagreement about sustained momentum is intensifying.
📊 The market is currently focused on two main factors: first, the potential volatility pressure from seasonal effects; second, the ongoing rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which may impose valuation constraints on risk assets.
Previously, I was cautious about Q4’s outlook, but BTC’s recent sustained strength has prompted me to reassess that view.
Therefore, moving forward, mid-term analysis will minimize subjective assumptions and rely more on what the market actually reveals:
Can $BTC break out with volume and open new space? Can $ETH follow through to confirm market breadth? Will $ZEC’s high volatility trend continue?
Surpassing the previous high is only the first step; what truly matters is the volume-price behavior and capital absorption after the breakout.
Is it accumulating strength at the top, or entering a turning point?
📌 Mid-term focus remains on: price + trading volume + open interest + ETF capital flows.
#BTC #ETH 🔥 September 28 $SOL: The long-awaited big move finally landed today
Alpenglow mainnet launched today, reducing finality from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds — the biggest heart surgery since Solana's inception. But how's the market? OKX $118.5, down 4.8% in 24h, sliding down from the high of 124.6.
Why can't it rally? Two words: insider selling.
Pump.fun treasury has been dumping continuously, selling a total of $848 million SOL (average price 162). Just as buying pressure tries to rise, it gets pushed back down. RSI7 is only 26.2, short-term already oversold. On the other hand, ETFs have had net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, with a record $188 million last week — institutions are buying, project teams are selling, the split is clear.
Key levels
Support: 118 / 112.5
Resistance: 120 / 123.4
A heartfelt truth: The cruelest moment for expected rallies is the day the good news actually arrives. From September 16, it rose from 95.79 to 119.99; this "buying on expectation" wave is now over. If you have unrealized gains, take profits in batches today — don’t mistake a profitable position for a break-even one. Want to enter? Wait for a pullback to 112–115 with support, stop loss at 112
$BTC $ETH #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 A weak rebound is the real warning
Liquidity is recovering, but Bitcoin is weakening—after falling back from 87,000, it hasn't had a single decent rebound, which is more concerning than a big drop. The real risk is not the fall, but the failure to rebound when it should.
A few days ago, when prices were rising, the idea of deleveraging came up but wasn't fully implemented. To be frank, it was greed at play: always wanting to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest is an unrealistic obsession.
Bitcoin has always been priced by multiple factors: liquidity, sovereign credit, SEC, leverage, ETF funds, Trump’s positive news, sentiment... each phase has different weightings, and only by analyzing the strength of correlations among these factors can we infer the dominant ones. Currently, with rising expectations of rate hikes and gold weakening throughout the Mid-Autumn Festival, Bitcoin still had a small rebound at 84,000—liquidity and credit can't explain this; leverage and funds are the contributors from 70,000 to over 80,000, so the dominant factors must be SEC positive news and sentiment driving it. The odds of a rise driven by these two are naturally worsening.
Next, let's see if it can stabilize and produce a strong rebound. If it can rebound, the market is still alive; if not, it's a signal to exit. The deleveraging plan must be executed this time; discipline is always more valuable than predictions.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 📊 Monday afternoon: The last trading day before Nonfarm Payrolls, how are BTC and altcoins choosing their direction?
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
Before the Nonfarm Payrolls data comes out on Wednesday, BTC has been sideways around 84200 for three days, while altcoins each have their own moves. Let me break it down.
$BTC near 84200, volatility compressed to the extreme. #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 indicates institutions have been buying continuously, but the 85000 level faces heavy short-term selling pressure. If Nonfarm data is good and rate hike expectations rise, BTC might retest 83000; if data is poor and rate cut expectations emerge, it could break above 85000 directly. Now it's just waiting for the data to choose direction, don't bet early.
$ENA near 0.25, after a 20% rally in the past two days, it is consolidating today. #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 Policy catalysts continue, and volume expansion is not self-driven. The 0.25 psychological level is repeatedly tested; a volume-supported hold opens space; failure to hold and a pullback to 0.22 is normal, so don't chase highs short term.
$SOL near 120, the strongest among the three today, after a 3% rise yesterday it held above 120. Solana ecosystem's NFT and DeFi transactions are returning, on-chain activity is recovering. Spot ETF funds keep flowing in, real money is buying. Holding 120 sets the next target at 128. BTC is still consolidating but SOL has already started an independent rally.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Today's tech stock pullback is the result of combined effects from overseas interest rate pressure + AI narrative disruption + supply chain policy concerns + pre-holiday risk aversion by funds, not a single fundamental deterioration.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.67%, the ChiNext Index dropped 4.53%, the STAR 50 declined 4.06%, with over 4,500 stocks down across the market. The turnover was about 1.72 trillion, representing a broad-based volume increase decline. Optical communications, CPO, semiconductors, and memory chips led the losses, with AI computing hardware heavyweights like ZJ Xuchuang and New Easysun sharply down.
There are three direct triggers. First, OpenAI announced a pause on training, evaluation, and related inference work for its latest generation model, causing market doubts about the AI computing demand rhythm and prompting a revaluation of the industry chain. Second, bipartisan US lawmakers proposed a bill to restrict Chinese optical modules from entering sensitive federal government systems. Although still at the proposal stage with limited impact scope, it triggered panic over the "politicization of the supply chain." Third, US Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 30-year surpassing 5.5% and the 10-year around 5.1%–5.2%, where high rates directly suppress high-valuation growth stocks.
Coupled with the approaching National Day holiday, some funds chose to reduce positions and avoid risks. AI hardware and semiconductor chips, which had risen significantly earlier, saw concentrated profit-taking that amplified the decline. Pre-market in the US, memory chips, optical communications, and large tech stocks also generally weakened, forming cross-market sentiment transmission.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Don't rush to go long! Wait for the whales to be cleared before talking about getting in.
There might be one more dip in the short term; the overall trend is still bullish, but timing is more important than direction. It currently looks like "first kill leverage, then pump the market." $ETH has about $32.12 million in whale long positions stacked between 2614-2632, with the densest liquidation line at 2613. Keep a close eye on 2630, then 2622 and 2614; if broken, 2550 might be tested. Futures open interest has dropped by about 500,000 contracts in the past four days, and leverage ratio has returned to March lows, which looks more like active deleveraging rather than a trend reversal. Wait for the liquidation to end and for $ETH to reclaim 2630 before adding longs more safely.
$ZEC has a market cap of about $26.4 billion, with support at 1550; if lost, look at 1450 and 1380, don't rush to catch the fall. Same for $BTC, if 82000 doesn't hold, look at 80000; altcoins are even harder.
Strategy: don't chase, don't double down, use small ant-sized positions in batches, wait for signals. Personal record, not investment advice. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 ETH short positions cluster on Bitfinex, is a short squeeze coming?
ETH short positions on Bitfinex have rapidly expanded over the past two weeks: soaring from 771 ETH to over 100,000 ETH, an increase of about 130 times. Such concentrated bearish bets indicate that market sentiment has become extreme.
The logic is straightforward: if ETH prices rebound, shorts will face floating losses, forcing some to buy ETH to close their positions. A buying surge could trigger a "short squeeze," which in turn pushes prices higher. This is the bullish fuel many are hoping for.
However, crowded shorts do not guarantee a price rise. If prices drop first, shorts profit and the closing pressure reverses. When bulls and bears battle at this level, volatility usually intensifies, with spikes and sharp moves up and down possible.
Therefore, seeing a "surge in short positions" signals a potential short squeeze opportunity but should not be taken as a certainty. Manage position sizes, set stop losses, and avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Ergou opened the market and saw that BTC was fluctuating around 83,000, ETH was fluctuating around 2,650, all falling. Meanwhile, oil prices slightly rose at this time.
The logic behind this oil price rally is very clear. Trump rejected Iran's "7-day plan," and Middle East negotiations have once again stalled. Brent crude oil has climbed back above $106 per barrel, and WTI is back above $93. The market is worried that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will be obstructed again, and geopolitical risk premiums are being factored back into oil prices.
But what Ergou noticed is a more painful detail: on one hand, Trump is shouting "reject the deal," but on the weekend, oil shipments through Hormuz hit the highest record since the conflict began—over 22 million barrels. Saying no with words, but the body is honest.
What does the slight rise in oil prices mean for the crypto world? Inflation expectations are not easing, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has risen to nearly 66%. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and funds are flowing into the dollar and U.S. bonds, so risk assets like BTC and ETH can only take a hit.
Ergou is now completely out of the market, holding 0 U. Having the account at zero is nothing to fear anymore. No chasing highs, no bottom fishing, no catching falling knives. Waiting for PCE and non-farm payroll data to land, to see which way this macro storm will blow. Once the market gives a clear signal, then consider whether to re-enter.
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Single Coin Contract Fluctuation
$MUBARAK price is relatively strong, with balanced active transactions: in three sets of 5-minute statistics, buyers account for 54.5% and sellers 45.5%; the main 15-minute K-line rose by 10.13%; open interest increased by 5.31%, with open interest value changing by +23.60%, indicating a real expansion in open interest, with quantity and value changes moving in the same direction. The price shows an upward trend, and active transactions do not show a clear one-sided bias; the current strength is mainly reflected in the price performance.$BTC has dropped below 82,000! This morning at $84,219 on OKX, $160 billion worth of options just settled, and it seemed to hold.
September settlements total 1.6 trillion, with BTC accounting for 32% and ETH 40%, the largest liquidation this cycle. Bulls stubbornly held all afternoon without breaking $83,800; the fear and greed index has been below 50 for three consecutive days. But the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.20%, the highest since 2007, and the 30-year yield at 5.519% set a new record for 2022. This BTC move is purely price pressure from nervous expectations before the US stock market opens.
GEX dense area at $84,000, price running close to the edge, low IV indicates direction is about to break. Fund rates are neutral with no long-short imbalance; this is a healthy correction, not a crash.
What BTC fears most now is not a dump, but continued slow decline. If $83,800 holds and doesn't break, add 2%; if it breaks, wait to catch at $82,800. Don't chase shorts at high levels; betting on direction here has less than a 50% success rate. Gold has reached its value level~ Unfortunately, I didn't manage my short positions well!
Here, enter in batches within two ranges to make a medium to long-term trade. Stop loss at a new low. You can try to play a wave~ Low leverage long positions or spot trading will do~
$XAU #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 morning crypto check.
$BTC is holding around $84K after a strong week, while ETH trades near $2.7K and SOL around $121.
The bigger signal: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $2.4B last week their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. $ETH ETFs also saw ~$690M, while Solana funds posted a record $86.7M daily inflow.
Liquidity is coming back.
Structure first. Narrative second.
No FOMO. No forced trades.
Let the market show its hand.Another one appears—not the 9/25 bc1qln, but another address that has been dormant for over four years moving 4500 BTC.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, the address bc1qd6…gqdg transferred about 4500 BTC after being silent for more than four years, valued at approximately $378.79 million (reporting caliber about 378.79 million USD). Similar in scale to the bc1qln awakening on 9/25, this is a different address but the same pattern NEW. DeepTide/ChainCatcher also followed up with a quick report on 9/28.
Transfer out ≠ immediate market dump; awakening from dormancy ≠ confirmed liquidation; monitored address ≠ confirmed real-world identity. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 82853. Not investment advice.
$BTC $BTC Using US stocks as collateral to borrow USDC? Here's my take on Aave's move
Seeing that Aave is going to support tokenized US stocks as collateral to borrow USDC, my first reaction is: on-chain finance has finally taken a big step toward traditional assets.
Previously, DeFi was all about crypto assets collateralizing each other, where risks were shared collectively. Now bringing US stocks in as collateral is like adding a "stabilizer" to the entire DeFi market. Institutions holding a bunch of stocks used to just collect dividends, but now they can directly collateralize to borrow money, greatly improving capital efficiency.
But honestly, I remain cautious. Stock price volatility isn't much less than BTC, especially tech stocks, where a 10% drop in a day is normal. What will the collateralization ratio be? What if there's a liquidation shortfall? These are all pitfalls. If not handled well, it could be a repeat of the cascading liquidations like in March 2020.
In the long run, it's definitely a good thing; bringing traditional assets on-chain is a major trend. But don't get too excited in the short term—this is still far from mass adoption, and regulators haven't fully given the green light yet.
Do you think this is the next big wave for DeFi? The recent sell-off of $PONS actually reflects a downward adjustment in expectations for it, while expectations for its industry competitor $PUMP have been raised, leading some investors to switch their positions and holdings. This round of losses actually stems from my own insufficient understanding of position sizing and overconfidence. Ideally, I should have set a stop loss at 0.6, and if I still believed in it at a lower price, I could have bought back. But because I entered with a very larg#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
$BTC is all good news, so why is Bitcoin not rising but instead falling sharply!!!!
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
What you are seeing now as a bunch of good news is not news, but something anticipated long ago.
Whales entered the market months in advance and have already taken their profits. When the good news spreads across the network, whales take advantage of retail investors entering to sell off in batches.
In summary, good news only serves to raise expectations and push prices up early.
The decisive factor still depends on whether new big money continues to enter and whether Federal Reserve liquidity can truly ease.
If it’s just good policy implementation without new funds, it’s easy for good news to lead to a turnaround and a drop. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC Teachers, BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC are all pulling back simultaneously, releasing overall market selling pressure.
BTC whale chips show a slight net outflow, falling from the high of 87374 and breaking below the 5-day moving average. The market is disturbed by news of Korean retail capital flows, causing short-term bullish momentum to weaken. ETH follows BTC's downward movement; the positive sentiment brought by Vitalik's post is hard to resist amid the market pullback. ZEC is suppressed by rumors of supply loopholes and starts to decline from a high level. All three have collectively entered a consolidation phase; do not subjectively guess the bottom.
Offensive levels: BTC‑84600, ETH‑2720, ZEC‑1610
Defensive levels: BTC‑81300, ETH‑2580, ZEC‑1490
During the collective market pullback phase, mainstream coins are unlikely to have independent rallies. Be patient and wait for signs of market bottoming. Avoid bottom-fishing against the trend. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Bitcoin plunges! Did you short it yesterday?
First of all, the macro environment is still dragging it down.
The Middle East situation is flaring up again, the market fears inflation rebound, and funds instinctively move to safe-haven assets.
US Treasury yields remain high and the dollar is strong. For high-risk assets like Bitcoin that generate no interest, their appeal naturally declines.
The Nasdaq is weakening simultaneously. $BTC is strongly correlated with US tech stocks. With poor market sentiment, the crypto market can hardly stand alone.
Secondly, profit-taking is concentrated.
After a recent rally, many long positions have accumulated profits. The price repeatedly tested highs but failed to hold, shaking confidence, and many chose to take profits.
Combined with the chain reaction of leveraged funds, price drops trigger long liquidations, amplifying selling pressure and accelerating the decline.
There is also the problem of insufficient buying support.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF that previously drove the rally has recently seen a clear slowdown in inflows, with institutions no longer continuously entering.
Without incremental funds to support the bottom, once selling occurs, the buying strength is weak.
Adding to this is the emotional shadow left by exchange security incidents, short-term funds have a stronger risk-averse tendency, and coins like $ETH and $SOL are also pulling back.
In the short term, focus on these signals:
US Treasury yields, Middle East situation, ETF fund flows, and market leverage liquidations.
$ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 ETH 1 Hour: Retraced to a critical decision point
Conclusion first: short-term bias is bearish, but at the 61.8% level, bulls theoretically still have a chance to fight back. Let's take a look down first, and don't rush to go up.
This market movement is actually very clean. On September 20, it bottomed at 2564, then rose over two days to 2807 on September 22, a 9.5% increase over 41 candlesticks. I counted 27 bullish candles and 15 bearish ones, basically a steady push upward with no significant pullbacks. Volume matches this — average volume during the rise was 8153, 1.6 times that of the subsequent retracement period. The largest volume candle, 26917, hit at 8 AM on September 21, exactly when the price accelerated past 2700. So this rise was driven by real buying power, not a low-volume sneak attack; keep this in mind, it will be useful later.
Then from September 22 until today, a full 6 days of retracement occurred. From 2807 down to 2646, a 5.7% drop over 157 candlesticks. The rhythm is the exact opposite of the rise: volume shrinks with a slow decline, average volume only 5028. Selling pressure isn't heavy, but buying is weaker — a kind of drop with no one stepping in to catch it.
The most notable aspect of this 6-day retracement is the series of rebound highs, five significant ones: 2788, 2764, 2743, 2724, 2704. The 2788 on September 23 was the highest; it hasn't been touched since. Each rebound is lower than the last, bulls lose strength with every counterattack. Experienced traders recognize this pattern — it's not a waterfall drop, but a slow boil, wearing bulls down until they give up.
I drew three sets of lines on the chart.
The first set is a descending trendline starting from the 2807 peak, pressing down on all five highs. Over 6 days, price hasn't touched this line even once. Structurally, there's nothing to debate: until price breaks back above, any rebound should be treated as a pullback.
The second set is Fibonacci levels for the rise from 2564 to 2807. 23.6% at 2750, price rebounded to 2743 on September 25 then reversed; 38.2% at 2714, price peaked at 2720 on September 27, precisely resisted at the single-digit level. These lines are effective, not just decorative. Current price is 2646, just slightly below the 61.8% level (2657). 61.8% is a strong support zone; the first touch doesn't necessarily break through, but if it fails to hold, the 78.6% (2616) is basically undefended, and below that is the old bottom at 2564.
The third set is a box range. From September 24 to 27, price ranged sideways between 2660 and 2720 for 4 full days. The upper boundary aligns with the 38.2% line, the lower boundary hugs the 61.8%. The lows during these 4 days — 2667, 2680, 2664 — progressively hugged the lower boundary more closely. The box narrowing toward the lower boundary is itself a bad sign. The volume spike bearish candle at 9 AM today, volume 13807, smashed through the lower boundary, invalidating the box.
Speaking of today, a couple of points deserve special mention. Today is the first day of volume expansion in these 6 days. After the 9 AM candle broke the box, volume at 1 PM dried up to 20737, low at 2636; at 3 PM volume was 22084, the highest of the day, closing at 2645, firmly below 61.8%. Of 18 candles today, 13 were bearish, many with volume over 10,000, compared to the retracement average volume of 5028 — 5 days of low-volume decline followed by a volume-increasing drop means bears added positions today. Low-volume drops mean no buyers; volume-increasing drops mean active selling — completely different in nature.
So the current market situation is:
Bears hold the trendline, the descending highs, and today's volume-backed breakdown; 50% (2686) has flipped from support to resistance, never reclaimed since 7 AM today. Bulls have the volume-backed true breakout during the rise, the 2564 bottom has cost basis, not flimsy; 61.8% touched for the first time, usually not broken through on first try; on September 24 price stopped falling and rebounded over 100 points from 2628–2635, so there is memory below.
My view: bears are dominant, but don't chase shorts at the 61.8% line. This kind of volume-backed breakdown usually has inertia the next day, with repeated tug-of-war between 2640–2660. If bulls can hold and reclaim above 2657 within 2–3 candles, today's breakdown is a fakeout. Then look up to 2686; only after reclaiming there can 2715 be considered. 2715 is the confluence of 38.2% and the trendline; until the 1-hour close is above 2715, all rebounds are just pullbacks, no chasing.
Looking down: if volume-backed break below 2640 (today's low 2636) fails to hold 2616, then 2564 is next, erasing the entire 9.5% gain and turning 1-hour timeframe bearish.
Watch these key levels: 2715, 2686, 2657, 2640, 2616, 2564. Look at the chart yourself; lines matter more than opinions.
——————————————
I am Sunspot, independent trader, MIX indicator developer, same name across the web, thanks for following.#ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData
The leader has something to say
Two key data points this week. August PCE will be released at 20:30 on September 30, and September Nonfarm Payrolls will be released at 20:30 on October 2.
The economy is currently resilient, inflation has not fully subsided, the Federal Reserve just raised interest rates, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high. The market is very sensitive to the magnitude and duration of rate hikes. Federal Reserve officials will also speak frequently, with Barr and Jefferson making appearances.
Whether PCE can show cooling inflation and whether Nonfarm Payrolls can continue employment resilience will directly affect interest rate path judgments and are important macro variables for U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I already have a long position on Bitcoin at 82,800. Stop loss is set at 81,000, with a target range of 86,000 to 88,000. Manage position size well, avoid heavy exposure. Continuous net inflows into ETFs provide support, but single-day inflows are decreasing, indicating resistance above. No directional bets before the data release; will decide on adding positions after the data is out.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.BTC first surged and then quickly dropped below 85,000 in this round, with over 1.2 billion in contract liquidations across the network, and more than 260,000 people liquidated. Short-term leverage has been cleaned out quite thoroughly, but USDC has newly minted 250 million on Solana without seeing stable buying support yet.
The four-hour MACD is crossing downward, RSI has already reached the overbought zone, moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the descending channel remains unbroken, so the overall trend continues to be bearish. Just parked the car by the roadside and wiped some sweat; the market rebound to around 84,500 shows a clear volume contraction. This kind of rebound looks more like an oversold correction rather than a trend reversal.
Liquidation pressure is concentrated above 86,100. The plan is to short in batches on rebounds between 84,500 and 85,200, with a stop loss set above 86,200. The first take-profit target is 81,000, and if broken, look for 79,500.
If the hourly chart holds above 86,500, the bearish structure is broken, and exit immediately without holding the position.
$BTC
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球 Alphabet coin really shows little hope in the short term; both sentiment and liquidity have been drained. If BTC continues to fall without stopping, basically no small altcoins are playable, and any rebound is very likely just a one-day event. So now I prefer to return to BTC, entering lightly at the current price, an ant-sized position, purely for trial and error, neither chasing nor doubling down. 82000 is a key short-term level; if it holds, there is still a chance for consolidation and recovery; if it doesn't hold, the next target is 80000. At this level, I don't guess the bottom, just follow the trend; position management is more important than direction. Temporarily avoiding altcoins, waiting for BTC to stabilize, volume and sentiment to warm up before considering again. When market confidence is fragile, cash and discipline are the best defense. The ant-sized position is also a backup for myself, not hurting the principal. If BTC stabilizes, altcoins can rotate; if it continues to break down, don't rush to catch the falling knife. $BTC Personal record, not investment advice. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Old Leek Observation]
$PENGU has recently started to be snatched up again.
On September 19, it was still around $0.0079, and on the 23rd it surged directly to $0.0111, rising about 40% in just a few days.
Although it has pulled back a bit in the past two days, the price is still around $0.0095.
From September 29 to October 1 is Korea Blockchain Week, and Pudgy Penguins will hold events in Seoul.
Additionally, there are rumors circulating in the market that it will enter Walmart's holiday catalog, and discussions on social media have clearly increased.
So now there are two points to watch for PENGU:
One is that the price has already started, proving that there is capital in the market;
The other is that there are real-world events and IP exposure in the coming days.
Entry: $0.0092–$0.0098
Take profit: $0.0109 / $0.0120 / $0.0140 / $0.0160
Stop loss: $0.0085
$0.0109 is the high point of the previous big bullish candle.
If volume breaks out again here, $0.012 is the first target.
If it passes $0.012, the previous trapped positions will be significantly reduced, and there will be room between $0.014–$0.016.
Conversely, if it falls below $0.0092, it means the expectations for this event wave have temporarily failed to support the price.
PENGU has a characteristic: the project itself is not new, but the IP is big enough. Once the market starts speculating on NFT and Meme again, it is easier for funds to remember it than many newly emerging coins.In the past 24 hours, 577 million XRP were transferred out from the Uphold exchange, worth nearly 900 million USD, with seven separate transactions sent to unknown wallets. The price hasn't crashed, hovering around 1.52, down only 1.76% in 24 hours. The spot ETF is still seeing net inflows this week, with a total AUM of about 1.77 billion USD. Funds are rotating, not fleeing.
Looking at the market, XRPUSDT current price is 1.4735, with the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages all pressing from above, RSI is weak, and MACD shows a death cross. The CoinGlass liquidation chart is straightforward: a batch of short liquidations piled up near 1.473, small short positions above 1.50, and a large long liquidation zone below 1.40. Bulls and bears are locked in, but the downside space is clearly larger.
I opened the security booth window for some fresh air; the water in the thermos on the desk is still warm. A glance at the screen reveals the structure at a glance.
Direction: short.
Entry zone: scale into shorts between 1.48 and 1.50, rebounds are opportunities.
Take profit: first target 1.44, second target 1.40; reduce positions near 1.40 as it is a dense long liquidation area prone to rebounds.
Stop loss: 1.525; if it holds above this level, the short logic is invalid, exit immediately.
Whale transfers don’t mean a pump, ETF inflows haven’t supported the price, moving averages are in a bearish alignment with MACD death cross, failure to break 1.50 means looking down to 1.40. Don’t chase longs, don’t hold losing positions.
$XRP
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
@OKX星球 Yesterday, multiple videos reminded everyone that the bottom for gold and silver hasn't arrived yet and that prices will continue to go down.
Today’s market open directly confirmed the prediction, with gold and silver falling simultaneously.
Don’t rush to buy the dip just because prices have dropped; the bottom can’t be guessed.
The pressure from U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar remains, and there will be rebound rallies that lure buyers, but a rebound does not mean a reversal.
Until a stabilization signal appears, keep your hands off and patiently wait for the real bottom.27 minutes after recovering the account, $340,000 was drained
322,110 USDT plus 9.13 million $ONE were withdrawn in one go.
The data looks like this: On September 25, the email was changed, and the attacker conveniently created an API. MEXC helped recover, freeze, change the password, and enable Google verification. But that API was never revoked.
What’s even more outrageous: once the 24-hour withdrawal limit was lifted, the money was gone 27 minutes later. There was no new login record throughout. Looking back, the attacker didn’t need to enter again; the key was left in the lock the whole time.
Changing the password locks the front door, the API is the back door. If the back door isn’t closed, changing the locks on the front door is useless.
So the question is, does recovering the account really count as recovery? I’m a guaranteed support case, just want to know which one to revoke first next time.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 $ONE $USDT Common pitfalls everyone has experienced: repeatedly getting stopped out during market fluctuations, correctly predicting the market but failing to hold positions, and always trying to catch every single market move.
Today's profit isn't much, so I'll just make a simple personal record.
The market oscillates back and forth, and while there seem to be many opportunities, most are actually false signals. Be patient and only act when you understand the structure; don't force trades.
Exit positions once they reach the expected target, without greedily hoping for bigger gains.
After trading for a long time, I realized: not every market movement is worth participating in. Opening fewer positions and sticking to rules is much easier for preserving capital than trading frequently. Often, losses aren't due to wrong market direction, but because of trying to catch every opportunity.Staring at the screen for a long time, this market is so quiet it sends chills down my spine. Even though I know that making a move now is just giving chips to the market, that damn trading impulse is still crawling like ants inside me. Honestly, this kind of dead, low-volume period tests patience far more than losing money during a big drop. Just now, I even had an irrational urge to buy something casually, even if it was just to bet on a rebound. Luckily, reason pulled me back from the edge. Reviewing the traps of these past years, every time I’ve fallen was because of this restless urge to "do something." Keep steady, hold onto this loneliness, because in the end, the one who laughs last is the one who loses less, not the one who jumps around more during trash time.
$SOL $SUI $APT $ETH This wave is truly worth watching, not just "how much it has dropped," but that the bears have finally found a direction to start realizing profits.
In the past few days of repeated fluctuations, the price was once pulled back to a high level, and many people began to doubt:
"Is it going to surge up again?"
But the most critical change in the market now is that the support around 2633 is being repeatedly tested, and market sentiment is gradually shifting from chasing gains to defense.
Looking back at the recent trend:
$ETH has continuously fallen from around 2700, with the lowest point hitting near 2647.
My short position average price is around 2562, and the floating loss has shrunk to over 3700 U.
Although we can't say the market has fully opened the downside yet, at least compared to a few days ago, the market is finally giving the bears some hope.
What really deserves attention is not how much a single candlestick has dropped, but:
If the 2633 level is effectively broken, will the support below weaken significantly?
What the market fears most is not the decline itself, but a sudden quick rebound after falling to a key level.
If after breaking 2633, the price climbs back near 2700, this drop is likely just a fake move.
But if the price stays below 2633 and the rebound strength weakens, then the downside space has a chance to open further.
So now, I won't prematurely celebrate a short-term drop, nor will I immediately change my plan because of a single rebound.
Having held the short position for so long, the most important thing is:
Confirm key levels, don't chase shorts on rebounds, trendSisters, $ETH Ethereum finally dropped today, and my short positions have started to profit!
ETH has been consolidating around 2700 these days, but today it directly fell to 2646. The 2800 and 2700 levels have been consecutively broken; now the focus is on 2600.
If 2600 doesn't hold, I will continue to look at 2500. I will keep holding my short positions and consider taking profits only after breaking below 2600.
Why still bearish? Currently, long positions are quite crowded; retail longs exceed 70%, and smart money longs also exceed 60%.
There is about $636 million long liquidation liquidity around 2562 below. If 2600 fails and then breaks 2562, it may trigger a chain liquidation.
Of course, there are also about $649 million short positions around 2828 above. If the price climbs back above 2742 and then breaks through 2816 and 2828, shorts could also be liquidated.
So now it depends on which side the market attacks first.
Although institutions have been buying ETH recently, with a net inflow of about $690 million last week, and whales continue to accumulate, the price just can't rise.
My thinking is simple: if 2600 fails, continue to look at 2500; if it climbs back above 2700, then reassess.
Sisters, did you short today? Do you think ETH will continue to break below 2600 or will it rebound? Let's chat in the comments.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 After trading for a long time, you'll realize that the most tormenting thing in the market isn't losing money, but that even when you've clearly learned from experience, next time it can still catch you off guard in a different way.
Yesterday's $ETH move is a perfect example.
Suddenly it surged, and my first thought was: Could it be heading to 2800?
I was genuinely scared at that moment and quickly exited.
But not long after I left, it dropped back down.
I was completely silent...
This is exactly the kind of situation where "when you hold on, it doesn't come back; when you let go, it returns."
So, the crypto world really has its own strange tales.
From an investment perspective, everyone has their own way of thinking, which is also related to one's temperament and style.
Some are more aggressive, liking to chase the rally on the right side, believing "fortune favors the bold"; others are more conservative, preferring to set up on the left side, planning one or two months ahead, patiently waiting for their own wave.
No method is absolutely right; it depends on whether you can handle the volatility it brings.
For someone like me who starts doubting life with every market move, maybe it's better not to constantly fight the market.
After all, you never know what surprise the next candlestick will bring.
Having realized this, I now feel that honestly holding stablecoins suits me better.
When your principal isn't enough, every fluctuation easily affects your mindset; once your principal gradually accumulates, you won't be so nervous facing the market.
Survive first, then talk about opportunities.
The market has movements every day, but if your principal is gone, no market movement matters to you. $PUMP Teachers, PUMP has independently rallied against the market trend, maintaining strength despite the broad market decline.
The nominal long-short ratio of the whale is 908.29%, with long whale positions at 40.03M, an average entry price of 0.0043639. Over 60% of the longs are in profit, while short whales are largely suffering floating losses and being squeezed. The protocol's daily revenue of 3.14 million USD is the main positive driver. After the price surged to 0.005290, it experienced a slight pullback but remains above all short-term moving averages. The heat around Meme coins is fading quickly; do not blindly chase highs.
Offensive level: 0.00517
Defensive level: 0.00441
Whale long profit positions are substantial, with a constant risk of concentrated profit-taking and exit. Counter-trend coins do not mean you can blindly go long.Just now: Binance Wallet officially supports using USDT to pay for gas on BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and TRON, no longer requiring users to hold native tokens of each chain in advance. Everyone, hurry up and clear your inheritance like Ajian 🤡The market needs to distinguish: news ≠ implementation
Currently, it is only an intention plan, with no official implementation documents yet. The follow-up depends on the pace of promotion by the Ministry of Finance, the State Council, and the DFC institution. This is a long-term narrative and will not directly change the market trend in the short term.
Do not blindly chase the rally because of this news. The current main drivers of the market remain: PCE, non-farm payroll data, long-term US Treasury yields, and BTC spot ETF capital inflows.
Key points to observe going forward
1. Watch for any official announcements confirming the timeline for the implementation of overseas stablecoins;
2. Focus on changes in US Treasury demand, as stablecoin-driven Treasury purchases will directly affect interest rates;
3. Continue to prioritize macroeconomic data, with policy narratives serving only as supplementary reference.#特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划
According to reports, the Trump administration plans to promote the overseas adoption of the US dollar stablecoin, intending to collaborate with private institutions and leverage the regulatory framework of the "GENIUS Act" to push compliant US dollar stablecoins into the global market. The core objective is to consolidate the global status of the US dollar while driving overseas demand for US Treasury bonds.
Underlying logic behind the plan
1. Compliant stablecoin reserve requirements consist of cash + short-term US Treasuries. Large-scale overseas use of US dollar stablecoins means that overseas funds will indirectly increase holdings of US Treasuries, alleviating the US's debt issuance pressure. This is an important approach given the current oversupply of US Treasuries.
2. Policy-level benefits bring regulatory certainty to the crypto industry. The US government's proactive promotion of US dollar stablecoins going overseas represents official endorsement of the crypto payment sector, which will boost overall industry sentiment.
Two-sided impact on BTC market
✅ Positive side:
Regulatory expectations become clearer, stablecoin expansion will bring incremental on-chain liquidity, which is a long-term positive for the crypto ecosystem, raising risk appetite and providing emotional support for BTC.
⚠️ Potential downside, often overlooked by the market:
Large-scale overseas stablecoin deployment is essentially a digital extension tool of the US dollar; it is tokenization of fiat currency, not a substitute for Bitcoin.
Expansion of overseas stablecoins will continuously increase buying demand for US Treasuries, which in turn will further support US Treasury yields. High interest rate environments are unlikely to decline quickly, which will continue to suppress BTC's upside potential. Ethereum to hit 4000 by year-end? Standard Chartered says yes, but the market votes with its feet—who do you trust?
Bullish logic (Standard Chartered):
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, compares the current Ethereum to Amazon after the 2001 internet bubble burst, reaffirming a $4000 target price by the end of 2026. The core logic is: on-chain transaction counts and TVL denominated in ETH are both near all-time highs, making the divergence between fundamentals and price unsustainable. Ethereum holds 54% of stablecoin deployments and 62% of the RWA market share, with stablecoin market cap expected to grow sixfold to $2 trillion by 2028.
The capital flow is indeed cooperating:
Last week, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $690 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading at $326 million, bringing the historical total net inflow to $13.28 billion. Fidelity's FETH saw a $174 million inflow during the same period, marking the best weekly performance since September 2025. Continuous days of net inflows indicate institutions are quietly accumulating.
But the bears have their say:
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.12%, a high not seen since 2007. The high interest rate environment raises the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets. Crypto, as a long-duration risk asset, is naturally sensitive to discount rate fluctuations. The probability of another rate hike in October has risen to about 70%, so the macro headwinds are far from over.₿ BTC HAS A WEIRD PROBLEM RIGHT NOW 👀
🏦 $2.4B flowed into U.S. spot BTC ETFs last week — strongest week of 2026.
📈 7 straight inflow sessions.
But BTC trades 24/7. ETFs don’t.
Weekend shock + thinner institutional liquidity = 👀
Wall Street buys on weekdays.
Bitcoin never sleeps.#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus $BTC $ARB Dear all, ARB has sharply corrected, with an intraday drop expanding to nearly 9.61%, following the overall market weakness.
The nominal long-short ratio of whales is 112.65%, with the average long whale position opened at 0.207794. The current price has already fallen below the whale long cost line, and most longs are in a floating loss state, with a profit ratio of only 24.57%; in contrast, the short whales have a profit ratio as high as 76.92%, with shorts holding a clear advantage. The news of Pear migration is insufficient to resist the market selling pressure, and all short-term moving averages have been lost. Be cautious of the passive stop-loss risk for longs.
Offensive level: 0.229
Defensive level: 0.188
A large number of whale longs are trapped, but this does not mean immediate support will be provided. In a declining market environment, avoid subjective speculation on bottom-fishing rebounds. $LINK Regarding the LINK token, only those who truly understand it know the truth. What people often see is its continuous integration of positive partnerships, making it look fundamentally unbeatable. But they have no idea that LINK's biggest revenue comes from off-chain income, and all of this income goes entirely to Linklabs. To put it bluntly, this is just a company. It has nothing to do with token holders. Every time there is a buyback reserve, token holders do not know how much of the income LINK official used to buy back tokens; it's all a blind box. Note that this is just a reserve, not a burn, so it could potentially flow back into the market in the future. There is also an enormous selling pressure that has not yet entered the market. The fact that it can surge significantly is somewhat of a miracle!What you really need to watch is not the price rise or fall, but the liquidation lines.
—
$BTC: There is $1.047 billion in liquidation bombs buried beneath. If it falls below 80,516, over 1 billion in long positions could be triggered; if it surges to 88,520, $985 million in short positions will be squeezed out. Both sides are heavy; whoever gets hit first will accelerate the market.
—
$ETH: On the upside at 2,828, short liquidation strength is about $649 million; on the downside at 2,562, long liquidation strength is about $636 million. Both sides are crowded, so volatility can expand at any time.
—
Logic: Breakthrough → liquidation → acceleration → forced exit. It’s not the trend that moves first, but the leverage that dies first. ETF net inflows have been nearly $3 billion over 7 consecutive days, providing support; long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing financing pressure. Both bulls and bears have bombs; don’t heavily bet on one side.
Key levels: BTC 80,516 / 88,520; ETH 2,562 / 2,828. Today, watch who gets swept first.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 9.16 公开喊黄金跌回4200哈 当时一堆人还骂我来着 现在4150了 不多讲$XAU The really interesting thing about $BTC right now is that neither bulls nor bears have won yet.
The price is repeatedly tugging around $83,400, with resistance at $85,000 above and support at $82,500 below.
If volume increases and it holds above $85,000 later, watch for further upside in the short term; if it breaks below $82,500, then see if it can hold around $80,000.
So there's no need to rush to guess the outcome now.
Wait for a breakout, watch the volume, and follow the rhythm.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh if it's possible to short BTC when it drops to 82,680?
Pharaoh directly says that the short-term trend is indeed weakening, but 82,500 is the critical line; before it breaks, chasing shorts is very likely to get hit back hard by a sudden spike.
Look at the highs: 87,374, 85,300, 84,900, 84,500, 83,400—each lower than the last, like Pharaoh going downstairs. The 4-hour MACD shows a death cross, RSI 6 dropped to 27, volume is increasing on the decline, so bears do have the upper hand. But! The 15-minute and 1-hour charts are already oversold. Chasing shorts now will most likely get a rebound to 83,800 or 84,000, slapping you back and forth.
Pharaoh hates shorting near support levels the most. What to do? Two strategies.
One is to wait for a rebound near 83,800 with low volume and an upper shadow, then short. Stop loss at 84,600, targets at 83,200, 82,800, and 82,000. The risk-reward ratio is comfortable.
Two is to wait for a valid break below 82,400, with a 1-hour candle closing below it, then if the rebound to 82,800–83,100 fails, short again. Target around 81,500!
Conversely, if 83,000 holds, and BTC climbs back above 84,000 and breaks 85,300, then the bears have to admit defeat.
Summary: Short-term bias is bearish, but don’t go all-in short at 82,500. Wait for a rebound to short or wait for a breakdown to short for more safety! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 The first time I bought $BTC
it was the delivery guy downstairs who told me about it
He said just hold on to it
I transferred three hundred that very night
It dropped the next day
I stared at my phone for half an hour
Later I tried $ETH
Spent a long time setting up the wallet
Got stuck transferring funds
Once the fee was deducted
I was dumbfounded
Then I heard people talking about $SOL
Said it was ridiculously fast
I put in a little money to follow
The speed was really fast
But it also dropped without warning
I didn’t sleep well all night
Since then I’ve learned my lesson
Only play with spare money
Don’t borrow money
Don’t go all in
Don’t stay up late watching the market
Calls in the group are just jokes
No matter how hyped a project is
I first ask myself if I can afford the loss
Don’t rush to buy when it drops
Don’t rush to chase when it rises
If it flies away, let it fly
If stuck, just stuck
Getting the right mindset
Is more useful than any indicator
This circle changes every day
Today it’s hot, tomorrow it’s cold
Chasing back and forth
You only tire yourself out
Don’t make much money
Lose a lot of hair
Paid my tuition
Fell into traps
Now I don’t seek to get rich quick
Just hope not to go to zero
Being able to sleep at night
Is better than anything
That’s about it
All just my own rambling #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 ETH looks stable, but the underlying signals deserve attention.
$ETH gas fees are sitting near 0.07 Gwei, pointing to weak network demand, even after six straight days of ETF inflows.
Volatility is also higher than BTC, leaving room for sharper moves.
➤ $2,800 = resistance
➤ $2,650 = key support
➤ Below $2,650 = $2,500 could come into focus
Price is holding. The real question is whether activity returns.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#MicronEarningsAhead
#HormuzTermsInFocus