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$SNDK perpetual 75x long position, opened at 1638.9, now at 1672.9, floating profit +155.59%.
The logic is very simple: the 1600 whole number support was tested multiple times without breaking, volume increased, and the bottom pattern was obvious. Finally waited for a strong bullish candle to follow long. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1600. The movement was very smooth, no chance for a pullback, directly pushed to 1672.9.
Moved the stop loss up to 1638.9 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 1700, can hold a bit longer to see 1750.
$ETH $BTC #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ This potential black swan in U.S. Treasury bonds is showing some positive signals in the short term.
First, as explained by Professor Frank, the winning yield in the 10-year Treasury auction is lower than the pre-issuance yield.
Here's a basic fact: U.S. Treasuries are issued through auctions. Participants bid by yield; the more participants there are, the less favorable it is for buyers, and the lower the yield.
A winning yield lower than the pre-issuance yield indicates strong buying power in the Treasury auction.
Another point is the price of gold. Both gold and U.S. Treasuries are considered safe-haven assets, so over the long term, their prices move in the same direction, meaning gold prices and Treasury yields move inversely. As shown in the chart.
However, in the past two days, gold prices and Treasury yields have moved in the same direction, especially yesterday when Treasury yields were low (Treasury prices rose) while gold prices fell. This suggests that funds may be shifting from gold to Treasuries.
The Treasury auction and the flow of funds from gold to Treasuries are clearly positive for Treasuries. With demand for Treasuries increasing, the upward trend in yields has at least temporarily eased.$LTC
LTC fell more than 4%, why is the low volatility label misleading?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 65.53—69.08 USDT, change -4.07%, trading volume about 7.34 million USDT.
The retracement in this window has expanded, and the observed quotes are also close to the lower end. The asset's volatility characteristics can change; past mildness does not guarantee current low risk. Defensive judgments must accept verification by the new price structure.
If BTC stabilizes but LTC continues to repeatedly break lows, first reduce the explanation of resistance to decline; if higher lows recover and the midpoint is held again, then observe the repair.Such a boring market!
I want to open a position but don't know how. My intuition tells me $BTC and $ETH will still drop. The current sideways movement is most likely just a downward continuation. Entering now will probably lead to a big downward wick!
I don't even know how to catch the wick at this point, it's nerve-wracking!
If shorting, unless there's a big black swan event, the FOMC meeting says more rate hikes are coming, but this news alone isn't significant enough to cause a major crypto crash anymore!
The downside space is really limited. If I short and a large amount of ETC re-enters, I might be underwater before I even take profit. Once the bulls start pulling, the trend can be very exaggerated.
I feel like I should hold back on opening any positions.
Usually, having an urgent urge to open a position isn't a good sign. I held back on 10/11 last year, otherwise, I probably would have said goodbye to my brothers already!
The best approach is to wait for the daily chart to stabilize and turn green first!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 $HYPE perpetual 50x short position, opened at 89.911, now at 85.823, floating profit +227.39%.
The logic is very clear: after a short-term explosive surge, a strong resistance platform forms above, bulls repeatedly fail to break through, and a bearish divergence signal appears. Contract long positions are heavily crowded, profit-taking risk is huge, and the short reversal window opens. With 50x leverage and stop loss at 91.4, every rebound is just a technical correction and does not change the downtrend.
The short-term speculative main rise has ended, incremental funds outside the market no longer enter, high-level chips continue to be distributed, and selling pressure is released layer by layer downward.
Trailing stop moved up to 87.1 to lock in floating profit. Volume-break below the key support at 84.2, follow the downtrend by adding positions; low-volume rebound hitting 87 fails to hold, continue holding and wait for the market to weaken. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Standard Chartered Bank, with assets of approximately $447 billion, is launching crypto asset custody services for institutional clients in Singapore.
Why is "custody" so important?
Institutions can certainly buy coins, but under strict compliance frameworks, many institutions are not suitable to manage private keys themselves.
Therefore, who securely holds and manages these assets on behalf of institutions becomes a critical link.
So when banks enter Crypto, they are not necessarily competing with exchanges in the "selling coins" business, but more importantly, competing for the position of "holding coins for institutions."
It is also noteworthy that Standard Chartered chooses to advance this business in Singapore. A traditional financial institution is trying to integrate Crypto into the custody and financial infrastructure systems it is familiar with.
What truly deserves attention is not just another bank expressing optimism about Crypto.
But that banks are beginning to build the infrastructure for trading, custody, clearing, and settlement themselves.
Retail enthusiasm may fluctuate, but once the infrastructure is established, the threshold for institutional funds entering Crypto will further decrease. $BTC ｜The familiar shakeout pattern has appeared again🤔
Looking at the 6-hour K-line, a similar sweep structure is playing out again, reminiscent of the previous false breakdown.
Previously, BTC briefly broke below the 76000 support but quickly recovered, then surged nearly 15%, reaching above 87000. Now the market is replicating a similar move, with the price briefly dipping below 83000 before starting to rebound, possibly forming a false breakdown.
After continuous declines, bearish sentiment gradually accumulates, easily attracting many to short. If this is a bear trap, shorts face the risk of a sharp reversal.
However, whether the previous big rally can be replicated depends not only on the pattern. The key is whether 83000 can be firmly held and then further reclaim the 84000–85000 range.
If a new low is made again, the false reversal hypothesis will be invalid.
If the 83K support holds, these short positions could very likely become fuel for the next rally. $DOGE perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.09058, now at 0.08687, floating profit +204.79%.
After a failed breakout above 0.09, it directly plunged in a deep waterfall dump. I followed the short trend with a stop loss set above 0.093. With 50x leverage and a very small position, the movement was much weaker than expected, free-falling directly to around 0.086, doubling the return!
Moved the stop loss up to 0.09058, now watching if the 0.08 whole number support can hold.
$ETH $SOL #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC This round of decline, don't just focus on the candlestick chart.📉
The price fell below the recent sideways support with high trading volume, which looks severe, but what’s really worth pondering is: the open interest only dropped to about 29.93k, not shrinking drastically with the sharp fall.🤔
Normally, a sharp drop tends to trigger long liquidations, sweeping leveraged positions, so open interest should decrease significantly. But this limited pullback indicates what? The funds that entered during the sideways consolidation in the past two days were not scared off by this bearish candle and are still holding in the market.💼
In other words, selling pressure has indeed arrived, but the capital has not fully withdrawn. The price break is superficial; the key is that the chips have not dispersed. The market may not be simply collapsing, but more like a high-volume turnover and stress test.🔍
What to watch next is not how fast the price falls, but whether the open interest remains stable and if the funds truly exit. If volume and price continue to diverge, a rebound or resistance could appear at any time.🚀 Don’t be led by the price; understanding the capital’s attitude is more important. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Samsung Wallet is going to support USDC, and at first, I also thought sending money abroad would be free from now on.
I checked the original text from Samsung Newsroom, and the footnotes are quite clear. The free service is for transferring USDC to another wallet or exchange. If you directly send money to the recipient's bank card, it can reach over 60 countries, but fees apply, varying by country and amount, and you can only see them in the app before confirming.
The 82 million mentioned refers to the number of Galaxy phones in the US that can use Samsung Wallet. If you really want to use it, you must be a US resident over 18 and pass identity verification. Samsung here doesn't have this feature yet.
So if you're hoping to save on remittance fees with this, don't get too excited yet. Wait until the end of the month to see how much the bank card transfer fees will be. If that turns out to be free too, I'll admit I was wrong.
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 The buying position has arrived. Bitcoin tonight directly smashed through 825, hitting a low of 81989, now around 82300, ETH at 2533, SOL at 1.15. The first key level we've been waiting for half a month has been delivered by the market tonight. But the more critical the moment, the calmer you must be; don't just blindly buy because the price has reached a level. The key is to see how this level holds tonight. Focus on one signal: can 825 be quickly reclaimed? If in the late night volume picks up and it stands back above 825, it means support is effective, panic selling has been absorbed, and this is a textbook-level buying point. The first level can be manually confirmed on the spot; if it stays below 825 with weak rebounds, it means this level can't hold, so hold your hands and wait for the second level at 80,000, don't rush to catch a falling knife. The big picture behind this drop is the US 10-year Treasury yield surging to 5.3%, a 24-year high. The higher the risk-free rate, the more risk assets get drained. Bitcoin is being pulled back by macro factors, not because its own fundamentals are bad. Today it has fallen nearly 6% from the high, the deepest correction in this rally so far. Panic selling is happening, liquidations are increasing, but the first decent correction in a bull market is always money given to those who are prepared. Trading discipline remains unchanged: don't pre-set stop losses, don't go all in at once, wait for support before acting. Tonight is worth watching closely. 14.2 billion, I counted the zeros three times
In the third quarter, there were 1.42 billion non-voting transactions on the Solana chain, 45% more than in the second quarter. Another set of numbers: the number of addresses holding tokenized stocks on-chain reached 1.2 million, with 775,000 new ones added in September alone. Note, non-voting transactions mean real people transferring real money, not machine-generated.
What does this mean? It means there is a massive amount of real buying and selling happening on this chain every day. During these days of price stagnation, things are actually quite lively beneath the surface.
But I have to admit, my first reaction after seeing the data wasn’t happiness, it was frustration. The data is so solid, yet the market is completely still. I scrolled through the charts up and down looking for reasons but found none. I almost uninstalled the market software.
Later, I made a rule for myself: data is data, emotions are emotions. The people on the chain haven’t left, so why should I panic?
Starting tomorrow, I won’t open the market software for three days and will check it again on the weekend. $SOL continues to be staked, and people go out hiking. At 8:30, ET initial jobless claims were 197,000, below the expected 200,000. Pre-market QQQ was about -0.64%, 10Y US Treasury yields were still around 5.34%, and Brent crude rose above $105. This combination is not friendly to high-valuation tech stocks. No buying on dips today; prioritize waiting for a rebound to give positions 🥇. INTC | Rebound Bears Among today's three opportunities, I prefer short INTC. I don't recommend buying shorts directly on pre-market weakness; wait for prices to rebound to 111–112.2→ then short if pressure appears. Stop loss at 114.2. TP1 108–108.5. If the market continues to weaken, then look at 104–105. Cancellation condition: strong holding above 114.2, or the semiconductor sector as a whole quickly turns strong after opening. ⸻ 🥈 QQQ | Index rebound bears Today's macro environment is unfriendly for Nasdaq: high oil prices + 10Y holding high levels + pre-market tech weak. But still, do not chase at low levels. 754–756 rebound is blocked → short. Stop loss at 759.5. TP1 749–750，TP2 744–746。 **Cancellation condition:** QQQ broke through strongly and held above 759.5, while the 10Y clearly pulled back. ⸻ 🥉 PLTR | The only remaining long position PLTR is one of the few strong stocks still worth considering for long today. However, due to the overall market environment being bearish, the position size was significantly reduced: 196–197.NVIDIA hasn't invested in many Crypto projects, but a few names are quite representative.
Including @MeckaAI, it has invested in a total of 9 projects, among which the classics include $INJ, $ATH, $RENDER, and $FIL.
What’s really worth looking at is not "which coins NVIDIA invested in," but why it chose to invest in these directions.
$RENDER corresponds to rendering computing power, $FIL corresponds to decentralized storage, and other projects mostly fall into computing power, cloud services, and infrastructure.
The logic behind this is simple: AI development requires more and more computing power, storage, data, and infrastructure, and what Crypto tries to solve is exactly how to turn these resources into networks that can be globally scheduled, settled, and traded.
Including @MeckaAI, which aims to build an "embodied AI data layer" to solve data infrastructure problems for the robotics and AI industries.
So when studying this list, instead of asking "which coin NVIDIA bet on," it’s more valuable to ask:
What exactly is AI lacking in its next phase?
The investment focus of industrial capital can provide an industry map, but it cannot be directly taken as a signal for coin prices. After dinner tonight, I video called an old buddy who also holds $DOGE and entered the market two years before me. I said I was a bit annoyed by the recent drop, and he was silent for a moment before saying, "Take a look at the monthly RSI."
I opened it to take a look. The monthly RSI has now dropped to the lowest level since Dogecoin was born in 2013. The major bottoms in 2015, 2020, and 2022 never fell this low.
My buddy said that since he got in 2017, every time the RSI dropped to this level, it later went up. But before every rise, it was the hardest time—no one spoke in the group, and the forums were full of "Dogecoin is dead."
I scrolled through the group chat. The last message was three days ago, a guy sent a meme, and no one replied.
After ending the video call, I leaned back on the sofa and thought for a long time. I don’t believe that such quietness is a bad thing.At Token2049, there was a rather sharp judgment: "Web3 is dead, Fintech 2.0 has arrived."
The past narrative of the "decentralized internet" Web3 is fading out, with more projects at the event focusing on three areas: blockchain native, including exchanges, public chains, prediction markets, and Perp; RWA, including asset issuance, trading, compliance, legal, tax, KYC, payments, and custody; and AI + Crypto agent trading.
So what really "died" with "Web3 is dead" may not be blockchain itself, but the grand narrative of "reinventing the internet."
Now the industry is more concerned with: how assets get on-chain, how trades are completed, how funds are settled, and how institutions comply.
Especially with RWA, when the keywords shift from "decentralization" to compliance, legal, tax, KYC, payments, and custody, it means the service targets are moving from crypto-native users to institutions.
The true direction of an industry is often hidden in the booths, not in the whitepapers.
Web3 may not really be dead, but blockchain is increasingly looking like a financial infrastructure business.1615 applications. For this round of ICANN top-level domain applications, it was the first time I saw it and thought I was mistaken.
Question: What does this have to do with the crypto world?
Answer: Not much, but it has some flavor.
.btc and .bnb domains are being grabbed, indicating that crypto projects still want to squeeze into the "mainstream internet."
Another question: Then .agent was grabbed by 13 companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Google. Is this good news for AI coins?
Answer: No. A domain is a domain, a coin is a coin.
This wave at most counts as an emotional boost; don’t forcibly link it to the market.
Third question: So what should we watch?
Watch whether the .btc and .bnb domains get approved.
If approved, the narrative moves forward a step.
If not, it’s just self-excitement.
I’m currently leaning towards waiting and watching, waiting for the results to come out before commenting.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $BTC $SNDK feels like a bull trap. I got 1710 at the open, and I immediately joined the short side The crypto market as a whole remains weak today. But if you only focus on coin prices, it's easy to miss something more important: US stock tokenization has begun to move from "discussion" to real implementation. Here are a few noteworthy events tonight, summarized briefly. 1️⃣ Why hasn't BTC risen in the past couple of days? BTC is still fluctuating around $83,000, while ETH is around $2,550–$2,570. This round of pressure is mainly not due to major internal problems in crypto, but because the macro environment is starting to deteriorate again. Several recent data points have appeared simultaneously: the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds has risen above about 5.3%, the dollar continues to strengthen, oil prices are surging, and the Fed's Waller recently stated that to bring inflation back down to 2%, further rate hikes may still be needed, though the pace can be more flexible. Simply put: high oil prices → increased inflation concerns → making rate cuts more difficult→ US Treasury yields are high→ risk assets are under pressure. So recently, it's not just BTC that is weak; US growth stocks and crypto concept stocks are also under pressure. Whether BTC can climb back to the $86,000–$87,000 range in the short term still depends on whether US Treasury yields can fall first. 2️⃣ ETF funds are also starting to show clear outflows. On October 7, US spot BTC ETFs saw a total net outflow of $484.9 million, and ETH ETFs had a total net outflow of $160.9 million. Moreover, ETH ETFs have been appearing noticeably for several consecutive daysTo understand whether the revenue decline is really a problem, you have to look deeper
Recently, there was a report that Hyperliquid platform's revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters, and the comment section was full of pessimism. At first, I was also worried, standing alone on the balcony for a long time on Friday night, the wind chilling my face. But reading further, it became clear: the revenue drop isn't because no one is playing, but because the platform has shared the cake. Now anyone staking $HYPE can open their own contract market and take half of the transaction fees. These markets already account for about 48% of the platform's total trading volume.
In plain language: this isn't a failing business, it's changing from "one store" to "a whole street." The platform earns a bit less, but the foot traffic on the entire street has multiplied several times, and the cumulative buyback has reached $1.28 billion, with over 40 million HYPE permanently burned, continuously shrinking the circulating supply.
My stance hasn't changed. I'm willing to trade revenue for ecosystem growth; once the street is fixed, the storefronts become valuable.
Those who just look at one quarter's report and give up are not on the same path as me.
When the next quarter's report comes out, I'll probably be shocked again, maybe. But I've already warned myself in advance: look at the buyback numbers first, then the revenue—don't get the order wrong.#Samsung Wallet to Launch USDC Cross-Border Transfers
Samsung first clarifies that it is not a bank, not a remitter, nor a custodian; then it states that by the end of October, cross-border USDC transfers will be available on 82 million phones.
▪️ The 82 million refers to the "number of Galaxy devices compatible with Samsung Wallet"—as defined in Samsung's footnote. This counts phones, not people.
▪️ Licensing and custody are external: Bastion holds the ledger and assets, with secondary custody handled by a publicly listed U.S. exchange.
▪️ In the same announcement, transfers to external wallets are free of Samsung fees; transfers to bank accounts in over 60 countries still incur fees, based on destination and amount.
▪️ Solana and Sui each issued their own announcements without mentioning each other; Samsung did not specify how the two chains will be divided.
The debate is not whether 82 million devices can become users, but on whose name the "entry point" is registered. Samsung provides the devices, interface, and user relationships; money, licenses, and verification are handled by licensed parties. It did not open a new entry point but is offering the phones as counters.
What should be monitored is not the number of installed devices, but the on-chain volume. My perspective is "chain benefits, brand as a pass-through": users indeed do not need to install another app, but this volume only manifests on-chain—if it cannot be measured as attributable incremental volume, coverage means no conversion.In the past 7 days, Solana has been far ahead in the growth of tokenized stock holders!
One chart clearly explains the growth of tokenized stock holders across various chains over the past 7 days.
$SOL ：+150,600, far ahead.
$BNB ：+73,800, ranked second.
Robinhood Chain: +18,800, ranked third.
Other chains:
Base: +4,600
Ethereum: +4,600
X Layer: +997
Ink: +561
HyperEVM: +13
Monad: +12
$ARB ：-100
A few noteworthy points:
First, Solana's new holders are more than twice that of the second place🦈 Thursday morning: The minutes were hawkish, BTC dropped to 82000, Brother Maji's ETH is only $30 away from liquidation, BOME rose 9.6% against the trend
$BTC 82383, down 1.29%, continuing to fall from 83149 to 82383. The FOMC minutes came out, most officials favor another rate hike, and the market voted with its feet. 82000 is a threshold; if it holds, expect a rebound to 83500, if not, look down to 80000. ETF inflows continue but can't stop rate hike expectations; don't bottom-fish today.
$ETH 2531, down 1.50%, falling from 2564 to 2531. Brother Maji's 39,000 ETH long liquidation line is at 2501, now only $30 left; another 1.2% drop means $100 million liquidation. 2500 is the key sentiment level across the network; breaking it will trigger chain liquidations. Watch this level closely.
$BOME 0.001035, up 9.60%, the only big gainer in the market. BOOK OF MEME rallies against the market plunge; meme coin funds are rotating. If 0.001 holds, look to 0.0011. This kind of coin is a bet on sentiment during a crash, don't hold heavy positions.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Three key points this morning: BTC eyes 82000, ETH watches 2500, BOME don't hold heavy positions. Don't bottom-fish under rate hike expectations; wait to see if Brother Maji gets liquidated.The borrowing costs of UK government bonds are soaring across the board.
The 10-year gilt yield is at 5.527%, the highest since 2007; the 20-year is 6.00%, and the 30-year is 6.047%, both reaching new highs since 1998.
Why is a new high in yields a problem?
Because yield essentially represents the price the government pays to borrow money. The higher the yield, the more return the market demands to continue lending to the government.
What’s more concerning is that this rise is not limited to a single maturity but the entire curve for 10, 20, and 30 years is moving up together.
On one hand, inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared; on the other, fiscal deficits require the government to keep issuing debt. The combination of these factors ultimately reflects in financing costs.
Comparing this with the previous day’s US Treasury auction, the difference is even clearer: US Treasuries received 2.77 times oversubscription, while UK long-term yields surged to nearly a 30-year high.
Although both are issuing debt, the market is pricing these two "IOUs" differently.
What truly deserves attention is not just how much yields have risen, but how the market is beginning to reprice sovereign debt and fiscal capacity.Evening session on October 8｜OKX spot 21:03 (Beijing)
U.S. stock market regular open at 21:30. Waller said today that if data meets expectations, rate hikes are still needed but the pace can be flexible; this is a personal view, not a new decision.
BTC around 82,226 (24h -1.58%), the 82,750 level from the morning has been lost, with 20-period moving averages on 1-hour and 4-hour charts pressing down. Support at 81,940, rebound first targets 82,520, then 83,020.
ETH around 2,528 (-1.53%), has fallen below the morning 2,536; if 2,517 is lost again, it remains weak, after reclaiming 2,540 look for 2,565.
ZEC around 1,206 (-8.76%), clearly weaker after losing 1,289 in the morning, daily 20 MA also turning down; watch the 1,194 low, rebound back above 1,229 then look at 1,246.
Hot topic ETF discussions cannot replace immediate buying pressure; tonight focus on whether volume and price can recover after the open.
My positions: BTC and ETH remain 10x short, ZEC is 20x short, attached is the latest ETH position card. Although there are floating profits, also guard against sharp rebounds, do not treat the decline as a one-way street. For market record only. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $7.5 UNI, did you sell?
The fee switch passed, the treasury burned 100 million UNI at once, worth nearly $600 million, with annualized burn once exceeding 250 million — yet the price dropped from 9.2 to 7.5 in three days. Just now, BTC broke below 83,000, and oil prices rose above 102. Is this a "pullback after good news realization," or a pump-and-dump by whales using the burn as a cover?
First, on the surface: a unanimously approved major positive, but the price slapped back.
On October 5, it was still 9.24; on October 7, it dropped sharply to 7.67; today it continues to hover around 7.5. Down 14% in the past 7 days, market cap at $4.8 billion, still 83% below the 2021 high of $45. The candlestick chart shows: the 20-day moving average at 9.0, price below the average, RSI only 46 — technically speaking: after breaking support, the lower edge means rebounds are for reducing positions, not reversals.
First point: UNI has finally started "eating volume," but the market already priced this in long ago.
The harshest criticism of UNI used to be: "Uniswap has hundreds of billions in daily trading volume, but the token is nothing but a voting tool."
That statement is now outdated. UNIfication passed almost unanimously, the fee switch is implemented, and some pools’ fees go directly to buyback and burn. The treasury burned 100 million tokens, worth $596 million at the time. Hayden Adams said annualized burn once exceeded 250 million.
This is the first time in UNI’s history that protocol earnings truly flow back to token holders.
Sounds like a get-rich script? The problem is — the market already ran from 5.2 to 10.9 in September.
The day the switch was implemented was the day of "selling the fact." From 9.2 down to 7.5, what fell wasn’t the burn, but the expectations priced above $9.
The most expensive four words in crypto: "good news realized."
Second point: The burn is real, but macro conditions are unsupportive.
In September, protocol revenue was $14.7 million, with Robinhood Chain contributing over half — not a bad figure.
But the problem is — the Fed rate remains stuck at 3.75%-4.00%, the September minutes mention "possibly one more hike before year-end," Brent crude oil rose above 102, and BTC broke below 83,000 to 82,800.
UNI is a DeFi beta, more volatile than BTC. When BTC drops 1%, UNI drops 3%; in a risk-off market, it’s the first to get hit.
So this drop from 8.7 to 7.5 isn’t because the burn was canceled, but because oil prices, Fed minutes, and the overall market dealt a triple blow.
Third point: The technicals have reached a critical level that must be closely watched.
The path is clear: September low 5.2-5.8 → late September high 10.9 → October 5 at 9.24 → October 7 at 7.67 → today at 7.5.
7.5 is stuck at the lower edge after breaking support. Holding 7.3 can still be a deep pullback; failing to reclaim 7.8 means rebounds are just position reductions.
Upside: 7.7-7.8 (yesterday’s low + today’s open, now resistance) → 8.2 (upper value zone) → 8.7-9.0 (lost platform)
Downside: 7.5 (current price) → 7.3 (psychological level) → 6.9-7.0 (around September 8 + round number) → 5.8 (30-day low)
No volume surge to reclaim 8.2, don’t talk about 9.0. Daily close below 7.0 means short-term deep correction.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
The fee switch is live, buyback and burn are real, annualized 250 million
September protocol revenue $14.7 million, Robinhood Chain over half
30-day outlook +10% to +25%, mid-term trend intact
Burn is about 5% of $4.8 billion market cap, UNI is no longer "zero capture"
On the other side:
Expectations above $9 already priced in, selling the fact is happening
BTC broke below 83,000, oil at 102, Fed may hike again
20-day MA at 9.0 pressure, RSI 46 not oversold
7.5 relative to September low 5.8 is still not cheap
Key level 7.5 is now the bull-bear dividing line.
What can be done is to hold 7.0 or wait to reclaim 8.2, not to go all-in fantasizing a return to 9 at the breakdown.
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 7.5 max, stop loss at 7.15. First target 7.8, second 8.2. Reduce half at 7.7. Don’t add if oil prices keep jumping.
Conservative:
Wait for 6.9-7.1 to consider, stop loss 6.6. Better to follow after reclaiming 8.2. If not reached, stay out — staying out is also a position.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume surges and holds above 8.7, with pullback not breaking 8.2; target 9.2. This condition is not met now.
Bearish:
If rebound from 7.8-8.2 is weak, light short positions with stop loss 8.4, targets 7.5 and 7.2. Don’t short near 7.0 blindly.
Three iron rules of risk control:
Daily close below 7.0, reduce positions, next support at 6.3, 5.8
If BTC breaks below 82,600, UNI should deleverage first
If monthly burn is significantly below annualized 250 million pace, 7.5 likely to break
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage no more than 3x. It can drop from 9.2 to 7.5 in two days, and then slap you again from 7.5.
UNI now is like ETH in 2021 — the protocol is the strongest, but the token price is the worst.
Everyone knows Uniswap is the DEX leader with 46% market share, but knowing and profiting are two different things.
It’s not that UNI’s burn is useless, it’s that you always rush in on the day of good news announcement, then sell on the third day of pullback.
Watch two things: can 7.3 hold, and will BTC hold 82,600.
$BTC $ETH $UNI $ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1319.34, now at 1209.21, floating profit +417.36%.
The logic is very simple: the 1320 whole number resistance was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a big bearish candle to short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1350. The movement was very smooth, no chance for a rebound, directly smashed down to 1209.21. $ETH
Trailing stop moved up to 1319.34 to lock in profits. If the 1200 support breaks with volume, can hold a bit longer to see 1150. $DOGE
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC Folks, listen to me for a moment. This market situation is giving me a headache.
At the 82383 level, damn it! The manipulative whales are really ruthless, forcefully dumping money downwards. From a pure technical perspective, the 4-hour moving averages are all broken, MACD has a death cross pushing down, and volume is still expanding. This is not a simple pullback; it's clearly a shakeout to clear leverage.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, trust me on this, this wave is bearish first. The resistance is around 82600 above; a rebound up there is a shorting opportunity. Below, watch 81000 first, if broken, it will head straight to 79500.
I've been through several bull and bear cycles, this kind of dumping is very familiar. Those who want to follow, be aware and don't over-leverage. 🧘♂️
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please manage your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Tom Lee's Bitmine ETH hoarding may be approaching a critical point.
Currently, Bitmine holds about 6.016 million ETH, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the circulating supply, about 100,000 ETH short of 5%. At the recent buying pace, it could reach that threshold in six to seven weeks.
What’s worth watching here is not the 5% figure itself, but the impact on supply and demand once an institutional position reaches a certain scale.
While buying continuously, it represents part of market demand; once it stops, marginal buying pressure disappears. If they reduce holdings in the future, such a large position could become potential selling pressure.
Therefore, institutional hoarding shouldn’t be judged solely by “how much they bought.”
It’s more important to see:
How far they intend to buy, and what they will do once they reach that point.
The market tends to focus on the accumulation process, but the real turning point often happens when that continuous buying hand stops.BTC's rapid decline in the past two days: multiple negative factors triggering leverage liquidation
In the past two days, Bitcoin has fallen from $86,000-$87,000 to $82,000-$83,000, driven not by a single negative shock but by a combination of macroeconomic, capital, and sentiment factors.
The Middle East situation has pushed crude oil prices above $100, inflation expectations have warmed, and the market has lowered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, the dollar has strengthened, raising the opportunity cost of holding the interest-free asset BTC, leading to a collective withdrawal of risk capital. U.S. stocks weakened simultaneously, amplifying the decline of high-beta crypto assets.
After the price broke below the $84,000 mark, long positions in contracts triggered concentrated liquidations, with billions of dollars liquidated across the network within 24 hours. Forced liquidation selling continued to hammer the market, creating a negative feedback loop and a stampede. At the same time, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw large net outflows, institutional buying disappeared, and the market lost support. Additionally, large BTC transfers from U.S. government-related addresses to custody platforms further amplified market panic.
Technically, multiple failed attempts to break above $87,000 indicate short-term long positions are crowded, and the macro environment cooling triggered a concentrated pullback. Short-term support is seen at $81,000-$83,000; if broken, the next target is $80,000. For the market to strengthen, it needs to regain and hold $85,000-$86,000. Going forward, key focus will be on CPI data, Federal Reserve statements, Middle East oil prices, and ETF fund flows.
#BTC #MacroMarket #LeverageLiquidation Dogecoin gets the "entry ticket" from US regulators
On October 2nd, Kalshi launched Dogecoin perpetual futures, regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Compliant trading, and I heard there are tax advantages.
A one-sentence news item worth saying a few words about.
I don't touch perpetual futures; the weight of this news isn't in the product but in the issuer of the license. The regulator's willingness to open the door for Dogecoin derivatives is equivalent to official recognition of its asset status. An unserious asset wouldn't get this treatment.
Looking back over the past two years: spot ETFs listed, compliant futures launched, custodians entering the list. $DOGE's status is rising step by step. Each move is small, but the direction has never changed.
My view in one sentence: prices can deceive, licenses cannot. Short-term fluctuations are emotions; compliance progress is fact.
Hold the spot, don't move. This kind of news is worth more than a two-point price increase. The U.S. auctioned $39 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds yesterday, receiving about $108 billion in bids.
The bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.77, the highest since 2016.
Simply put, the U.S. wanted to borrow $100, and the market submitted purchase requests totaling $277.
Even more interestingly, before the auction, the yield on this batch of bonds was about 5.317%, and the final yield settled around 5.30%.
With strong demand, the issuer was able to push the interest rate down a bit, indicating that demand for this auction was not weak.
However, it’s important to note that the 2.77 ratio does not mean that 2.77 times the funds were actually transacted; rather, it is the ratio of the total bid amount to the issuance size, acting more like a demand thermometer.
What’s truly worth pondering is another figure: 5.30%.
The attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries largely comes from this yield being sufficiently high.
So, good bond sales don’t necessarily mean the market has abundant liquidity.
On the contrary, it might mean:
The risk-free yield has risen enough to make capital willing to pause for a certain return.
For non-yielding assets like gold and BTC, this implies a higher opportunity cost.#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
I've already written twice today about the treasury increasing holdings. The core is one sentence: the treasury is buying, but the price isn't supported, and funds are withdrawing.
But there's a new signal. Tom Lee from BitMine said at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that they want to cap ETH holdings at 5% of the total supply as a hard limit. BitMine currently holds 6.01 million ETH, with a total supply of about 120 million; 5% is 6 million. It's almost at the limit.
This means the largest ETH treasury company will stop buying. BitMine's previous continuous accumulation was an important support for ETH spot demand. Now that they openly say they won't expand further, ETH loses a key buyer.
This has little impact on BTC but is structurally bearish for ETH. ETH ETFs are already seeing outflows, and with the treasury stopping purchases, it's harder for ETH to strengthen in the short term.
My short BTC position at 86,500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: bullish factors have been realized, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87,500, target between 84,500 and 85,000. Time to reduce positions, leaving the rest to break even.
Control your position size well, don't overleverage. Avoid ETH for now, wait for funds to return. Set stop losses properly, don't hold on stubbornly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.【On-Chain Trading Update｜SOL】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $112.46
▪ Transaction amount this time: $388,674.39
▪ Leverage: 9x
Note: This address has earned over $84,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +3.91%
Do you think opening a long position at this level is early or not?Is something big coming?
No.
It's the Federal Reserve digging up old issues.
On Wednesday afternoon, the September meeting minutes will be released.
Not new interest rates.
It's the old ledger.
They dare not raise rates, but can't avoid it either, so they can only raise next month.
The awkwardness is written all over their faces.
The dollar is relatively strong.
Long-term bond yields are above 5%.
Crypto circle:
I want to leave on my own.
Legs: No, you don't.
$BTC at 82,000.
On Monday it surged to 87,000 but was pushed back.
The third probe since September 23.
Like a puppy dog confessing love.
Rejected all three times.
Will the 84,000-85,000 support hold?
It won't hold.
82,000-80,000, will it hold?
ETH
Follows Bitcoin.
Not much change up or down.
Can't set the pace.
Like the quietest colleague at a team-building event.
$OKB meeting in Singapore.
Global Product and Ecosystem Conference.
From an exchange to a fintech platform.
Challenging the universe's largest exchange?
First ask if Binance agrees.
Opportunities come from waiting.
Not chasing.
Just venting.
Not investment advice.
#ThisWeekTheFedWillReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes
#BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens,ETFFundsNetInflowForThreeConsecutiveWeeks
#USLongTermBondYieldsHitNewHighs,30YearApproaches5.7% $SOL perpetual contract 100x short position: opened at 118.59, now 112.53, +510.16%.
Basis: nighttime volume gap + dominant active sell orders. Stop loss at 120 not triggered.
Execution: take profit on 50% of the position, move stop loss on remaining position up to 114.5. Short position held with volume breakout at 110 down to 105, then reduced volume and stabilized to clear the position. Reject emotional trading, keep the trade clean and neat. $ETH $SOL Bing has been consolidating and oscillating within the triangle for a whole day. Bing can only stop falling and rebound to 2633 if it returns above 2588 for hours. If it can't move above 2588, it can only continue oscillating between 2588 and 2535. Once the triangle is broken, it will test the previous low again. If it pulls back to the previous low of 2535, it may not hold out because Bing is just too weak. If 2535 can't hold the new low of 2486, it's coming. If you want to go long, watch the support range between 2535 and 2486 to find a long opportunity, or wait for Bing to break above 2588 and then go long if it doesn't break below the previous low of 2535. Bing beats above 2567 with volume to the right to chase bulls; 2551 with volume falls below the right side to chase shorts. Watch volume changes and set stop-losses. The hourly level of Bing holds above 2567, looking upward to 2588-2633. If the 4-hour chart breaks below 2551, look downward to 2535-2486. The 4-hour Bing level is wildly testing on the edge of danger; one step forward is a bottomless abyss. The 4-hour Bing definitely cannot close below 2556. If all three 4-hour K-lines close below 2556, the 4-hour consolidation zone circled by the white box above will be completely destroyed, and the ranges marked by the red arrow below are all within the downside range for Erbing. Therefore, the 4-hour level only needs to stay above 2556 to prevent Bing from extending its decline. If the 4-hour Bing can maintain above 2556, there is still a chance to rebound and return to 2556$ETH $SOL I am willing to take responsibility for my mistakes, but I do not regret any of my decisions, nor will I doubt my own judgment. The reason things didn't go as planned is that I truly did not anticipate this ancient account would liquidate BTC and crash the market.
Because I can't run simulations including such an extremely low-probability event in the results. If I did, it would severely limit our entry and exit points.
After all, it’s impossible for them to liquidate every day, while our strategy profits daily 🥩. As I said, I am not always profitable. If you want someone who is always profitable, go find Ma Bian. I also won’t let my brothers bear the losses. When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. After the loss, it doesn’t affect me; I adjust my breathing and continue to the next battle.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 10.8 US session
XAUUSD
The consolidation range has not yet been broken; be cautious of a drop after the white session's high near 4140 is swept to trigger liquidity above.
Today's major resistance is around 4178.
Nas100
Watch for the formation of a double top. If the neckline at 30900 breaks and then retests the neckline, consider entering a short position; otherwise, avoid buying at high levels. If the 30900 short position is taken, consider taking profit near 30300 and then reverse to go long.
BTC
Weak intraday bias; pay attention to the validity of support at 81850. It's best to wait until around 80,000 to enter long positions. The biggest resistance above remains at 89,000.At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 8,
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting: there might be one more rate hike this year.
All night long, the stock market didn't move, gold didn't move, only Bitcoin moved a bit.
People say the market is immune; this is called maturity.
I actually think this is the part we should be worried about.
What was really strange that night wasn't Bitcoin moving, but that others were too lazy to move.
Why did the stock market and gold have no reaction at all?
It's not that they didn't hear it; it's that this news is no longer worth their reaction. And a market that still twitches at a piece of news is often small, shallow, and easily pushed around. Isn't that so?
Now, why is "no movement" not a good thing?
There are only two possibilities when the market doesn't react to bad news: one is that it has figured it out, the other is that it’s too lazy to think about it. The latter usually happens when risks have piled up so high that no one wants to look anymore. To put it bluntly, it's giving up.
The calmest sea isn't actually the safest; it's just that the wind hasn't arrived yet. So I generally don't take the word "immune" as a good thing.
So what should we really watch?
Don't focus on a single twitch, and don't rush to make up stories about it. A small bullish candle proves nothing.
There can be a hundred interpretations, but the price is only one. The judgment has only one standard: three days later, is it still above 83000? If it holds, it means someone is really buying; if it falls, then the twitch at 2 a.m. and three days later was just a commotion.
Want to predict in advance?
No one can say for sureEthereum might kill the L2 boom itself — simply by fixing its own weaknesses.
Blast, Abstract, Polygon zkEVM, Loopring, ZK, Mint, Swellchain, Sophon, and other projects are winding down or shutting down in 2026.
The overall problem is that the economics no longer work.
But the market misses the main point.
L2s appeared because $ETH was expensive, slow, and limited in throughput. Now these problems are gradually being solved.
Cheaper data availability means lower L2 costs.
Higher throughput and infrastructure development mean that apps, wallets, NFT ecosystems, and payment products no longer necessarily need to run their own network.
Therefore, the closure of L2s does not necessarily mean that Ethereum is losing. It might be the opposite: Ethereum is becoming so efficient that the need for hundreds of separate networks is gradually disappearing.
The next stage of Ethereum might look very different.
Not hundreds of L2s competing for liquidity, users, and fees, but a few dominant networks and Ethereum itself, capable of handling an increasing share of activity.
The irony is that the best way for Ethereum to beat L2 competitors is to become so good that some of them are no longer needed.$SUI I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but I have to take back my words, it's a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon, I saw SUI's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, and it softened under pressure from above. I warned not to chase longs at the top.
Shorted in at 1.1368, covered at 1.0927, +193.96% profit, timing was perfect, those on board should be waking up smiling.
Take 80% profit first, keep 20% at cost price as protection, don't be greedy for the last bit, and don't give back profits if it rebounds.
Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. Being out of position isn't a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ZEC $XRP The long position at $BTC 82000 has finally been filled, just now BTC plunged directly to 81818.6Key Risk Warnings
1. Full-scale outflow of ETF funds is the biggest pressure: a single-day outflow of 485 million USD erased all inflows in October; it is necessary to observe whether today's 119 million USD inflow can be sustained.
2. U.S. Treasury yield at 5.36% hits a 24-year high: the persistently high risk-free rate continues to push up BTC holding costs; this is structural and not reversible in the short term.
3. Contract demand cools by 10%: open interest contracts dropped from 28.8 billion to 26 billion, indicating investors' willingness to take risks has clearly weakened.
4. 79,000-79,500 is a liquidation danger zone: if broken, cumulative long position liquidations will reach 1.37 billion USD, potentially triggering a chain reaction of liquidations.
5. October 9 options expiration: 22,000 BTC options expire, with a Put/Call ratio of 1.12 indicating a bearish bias; the maximum pain point is 84,000 USD, and market maker hedging may exert slight price pressure.
Core Judgment: BTC broke below 83,000 USD amid multiple macroeconomic bearish factors resonating, confirming a 1-hour bearish structure; contract demand cooled by 10%, and ETF funds fully flowed out. The 82,150-82,300 USD range is a short-term buying support zone, while 79,095-79,493 USD is a liquidation danger zone. If oil prices and interest rates continue to rise and BTC fails to break through the 87,000 USD resistance level, short-term volatility may continue to increase. Those with positions should lock in profits; those without should wait for the final decision at 82,300 USD. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Leverage Liquidation Night: Who's Exposed, Who's Picking Up Chips?
In 24 hours, 122,768 people were wiped out, and $700 million vanished into thin air. BTC, ETH, and SOL all crashed simultaneously—not panic, but a precise leverage cleanup.
$BTC fell below 83,000, triggering concentrated long liquidations. With U.S. Treasury yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and ETF inflows slowing—the idea that 82,500 has shifted from resistance to support, is it faith or just rhetoric? Wintermute calls for a 90,000 target, but the market only trusts capital.
$ETH lost 2,700, with $1.35 billion in liquidation positions looming below. ETFs have seen over $400 million in net outflows for six consecutive days; once 2,500 breaks, chained liquidations will amplify selling pressure. The risk concentration is far higher than the short positions above—this is the most fragile link.
SOL received CFTC commodity classification, a regulatory positive, yet ETF net outflows over two days offset this. From 122 down to 115, institutional buying and ETF outflows diverge, intensifying the long-short battle.
The real signal is never the price, but when ETF funds start flowing again. That is the starting gun for a rebound. For now, only those who survive have the right to wait for the shot. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Can Elon Musk reclaim the title of the world’s richest person? I have a lot to say about this one. I went long $SPCX around $210, held through the brutal drop to $104, and eventually got wiped out. Now that it has climbed back toward $170, I’ve experienced the entire roller coaster firsthand. Musk’s ambition to regain the top spot is closely tied to the next wave of AI and computing infrastructure. A reported $40 billion financing plan for Nvidia chips, Apollo’s involvement, FCC approval for 15Today's market showed an extremely extreme 80/20 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent trend. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market pullback, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close.
$NEAR (Independent trend, a gift from the trend)
Average position price 4.909, current price 5.3740.
Current unrealized profit 424.54U, return rate 173.06%!
This is the only bright spot in the account today. While mainstream coins are pulling back, it is making new highs against the trend. Getting in from the low point to now is not luck.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 $BTC has fallen back to the recent low zone, with the daily chart showing three consecutive days of small green and small bearish candles indicating a gradual decline.
Looking at the volume, the trend is actually quite clear. The big bullish candle on September 21 had a single-day trading volume exceeding one trillion dollars, marking the peak volume of this rally — when volume pushes but can't break above 87,000, it can basically be judged as a top distribution. After that, the trading volume steadily shrank with price declining in tandem, representing a transition from volume increase with price drop to a gradual volume contraction downtrend.
There are several volume spikes in recent days worth monitoring. On October 7, the daily volume spiked as price dropped 2.6%, breaking below 83,000. That day’s trading volume returned to a recent high of 5900M, indicating real selling pressure, not a wick. Today, a new low of 81,800 was made in this wave, but hourly volume supports this — the 12 o’clock hourly candle dropped to 81,800 with volume more than doubling the average, showing genuine selling pressure and a real decline.
Resistance above is first seen at the 83,000-83,400 zone (a break-level resistance), then at 84,300; support below is at 81,800, breaking which targets 81,000, and further down is the 80,000 round number.
$ETH $SNDK
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Gold: On the morning of October 7th, the People's Bank of China announced the gold accumulation data for September, with an increase of 740,000 ounces, more than the 650,000 ounces added in August. During the entire holiday, gold's volatility was not significant, but it suddenly plunged the day before the market opened. It's not a huge drop though; from the close on September 30th to the A-share market opening today, gold fell by 1.58%.
Before the holiday, the position in gold stocks was increased from 20% to 60%, betting on a rise in gold during the holiday. There was a high opening after the A-share market opened, but it ultimately failed. Because I was closely watching the central bank's accumulation data, which showed a month-on-month increase, I held onto the gold stocks without cutting losses. But the result was a loss exceeding expectations. When I realized I couldn't control it, I liquidated all my gold stocks.
The goal for October is to try to recover the previous losses as much as possible. $SOL
🔥 Major news on October 7: South Africa's leading retail bank FNB officially launched crypto trading on its own APP, natively supporting SOL, BTC, ETH, XRP, USDT. Nearly 9 million bank customers can participate directly, with a minimum purchase of only 10 South African Rand (about 0.6 USD), making the entry barrier very low.
This service is implemented by FNB in partnership with South Africa's licensed crypto exchange VALR. Users do not need to register an additional exchange account; they can directly buy and sell crypto assets 24/7 within the APP using their bank account balance, significantly lowering the barrier for ordinary people to access the crypto market. This is also a landmark implementation by a traditional large African bank, representing traditional finance embracing crypto assets and bringing regional adoption benefits to coins like SOL.
However, one crucial detail must not be overlooked: this product operates under a closed custody model. The SOL purchased within FNB cannot be withdrawn to external wallets or transferred to other exchanges; it can only be traded and sold within the bank system, with proceeds converted back to fiat and returned to the bank card. There is no private key control, so essentially it is an on-book asset transaction, not on-chain holding.
From a market perspective, this is a regional retail adoption positive that can increase SOL's market attention, but short-term incremental funds are limited, making it difficult to directly drive a significant price rally. It acts as a sentiment catalyst rather than a strong fundamental positive.
The penetration rate of the African crypto market continues to rise.