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#FedMinutesFocusOnPauseInRateHikesInOctober
[OldLeekObservation]
Tonight's Fed meeting minutes, the market is not focused on why rates were hiked in September.
Instead, it's about:
Will there be another hike in October? The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, pushing the rate to 3.75%–4.00%.
But after the meeting, US employment clearly cooled: only 29,000 new jobs were added in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
As a result, the market's expectation for another rate hike in October has dropped from over 50% a week ago to about 20%.
Now the market is basically betting on a pause in October.
If tonight's minutes show more officials leaning towards "wait and see," risk assets may continue to get a breather.
Conversely, if the minutes are clearly hawkish, the market's current expectations for a rate cut/pause could be reversed.
$BTC Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$AVAX top accounts are biased long, position size biased short: account long-short ratio 1.55, position ratio 0.91; the difference in the proportion of the two types of longs narrowed by 1.37 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still biased short; this convergence has not yet caused the two indicators to align.Brother Maji's operations these days have indeed mastered the swing trading of high-leverage positions.
The total exposure fluctuates back and forth between 141 million and 165 million USD. BTC first decreases then increases, then decreases again and holds, the rhythm is well controlled; ETH is still the main part, with an average price around 2688, liquidation price at 2500, but the funding fee has already been pressed down to 1.23 million USD, the longer held, the higher the cost.
But don't just look at the "legendary" performance, also consider the risks: he uses 25–40x leverage plus full position mode, once ETH retests around 2500, unrealized profits will quickly be given back. Ordinary people should not copy this, especially not to bet on the same direction with high leverage.
Currently, BTC support is seen at 83000–83500; if broken, it may continue to decline; if ETH cannot hold 2580, don't stubbornly hold on, it's safer to reduce positions first when it rebounds to 2630–2660; CORE is highly volatile with low liquidity, entering with high leverage can easily get liquidated.
Before and after tonight's Federal Reserve minutes, keep positions under 5%, set stop losses well, don't gamble your account emotions on direction.
BTC ETH CORE #BrotherMaji #ContractTrading #HighLeverage
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extremely high risk; position sizing and stop losses must be prioritized.
#SeptemberFOMCMinutesComingSoon, will rate hikes continue?
#BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks U.S. Treasuries are not unwanted; they are just more expensive. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 5.3%, and the 30-year is approaching 5.7%. Buyers remain, but they demand higher premiums.
U.S. stocks, on the other hand, are hitting new highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P setting new closing records. AI and earnings expectations continue to support tech stocks. Gold hasn’t "crashed," with spot gold still above $4130, though it is suppressed by high yields and the dollar, showing short-term weakness.
Those loudly proclaiming "U.S. Treasuries are unwanted, gold is the only way out" now look a bit awkward. The real main theme is: global liquidity is more expensive, and asset pricing is shifting from "cheap money" back to "high cost."
The internationalization of the RMB is indeed progressing, with oil RMB, CIPS, and mBridge all expanding, but the future is not about one replacing another; rather, the dollar, euro, and RMB will coexist in a multipolar system.
When trading, don’t get caught up in slogans. U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies are all being repriced. High leverage fears this kind of macro misalignment the most; position sizing and stop losses are always more important than opinions.
BTC ETH GLD SPX #美债 #黄金 #美股 #宏观交易
The above are personal views and do not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop losses must always come first.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is top-notch. $CT This short position can afford a good meal.
Just finished lunch and watching the market, CT was lingering at a high level again, the rebound was weak, and the resistance above was tight. At 0.5063, I shorted directly with one logic: no one will catch it going up, it will come down sooner or later.
When the screen was full of green, others were still looking for reasons, I only look at the results. It hit 0.3750, +519.45%, took it away, this profit feels solid.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
First close 70%, pocket the main profit. Keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection; if it continues to drop, let the profit run. Don't be greedy for the last bit; take profits when you should.
For friends who haven't gotten in yet, listen to me: chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next round at a more comfortable position, the opportunity is still there, don't rush.
$XRP $BTC Long positions liquidated $400 million, yet a thicker liquidation zone has formed above BTC
Today, long positions have already been swept once, but the potential short liquidation scale above is significantly larger.
During the sharp drop in the daytime lasting about 20 minutes, BTC fell from $85,341 to $83,790, with a low around $83,577. Corresponding to one hour, the total market liquidation was about $413 million, with longs accounting for over 97%.
But one round of liquidation does not mean safety afterward.
As shown in the chart, $BTC is around $83,338, with a dense zone below mainly between $82,000–$83,000, and above concentrated between $84,000–$85,000. The cumulative potential long liquidation below is about $1.5 billion, while the potential short liquidation above is about $2.9–3.0 billion, clearly thicker above.
$ETH is around $2,561.6, with a dense zone below mainly between $2,500–$2,550, and above first looking at $2,580–$2,600, then $2,630–$2,670. The cumulative potential long liquidation below is about $500 million, and the potential short liquidation above is about $2.3–2.4 billion.
At present, we cannot just call the leverage fully cleared based on the liquidation amount alone. If the downside continues to break, further observation is needed.
The minutes will be released at 2 AM Beijing time on the 8th; the key is to watch how the price moves after the news comes out.During the day still at the club, at night directly into the ICU, this is the norm for high leverage.
Today's round of sell-off is not an issue with individual coins: BTC fell below 84,000, reaching a low near 83,500; ETH dropped nearly 5%, SOL fell about 2%–3%, with over 110,000 liquidations across the entire network in 24 hours, bulls were heavily wiped out.
My account is also very real: ETH 2615 long position floating loss expanded, forced liquidation below 2495; BTC 84171 long position trapped, the 83000 level is precarious; SOL was still a cover-up during the day, but gave back profits directly at night.
Now focusing on three key levels: if ETH 2580 doesn't hold, don't stubbornly hold on; if BTC 83000 breaks, it may continue to probe lower; if SOL near 117 breaks down with volume, even rebounds need confirmation.
In this market, two things are most taboo: one is adding more as it falls, the other is using high leverage to hold one-sided positions. Keep position size within 5%, set stop losses well, don't gamble your account on emotions.
BTC ETH $SOL #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ContractTrading
The above are personal views and do not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extremely high risk; position sizing and stop losses must come first.
#September FOMC minutes are about to be released, will rate hikes continue?
#BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
#OKXNOW: ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets $ZEC currently shows a clear bearish dominance in this long-short structure.📉
Looking at the data first: the long position profitability rate is only 21.12%, while the short position profitability rate reaches 81.26%.
Out of 781 long positions, about 165 are truly profitable, with the remaining 600+ mostly underwater; among 539 short positions, about 438 are profitable.
More importantly, although longs still have over 60 million in unrealized gains on paper, most of these are held by those who entered at early low levels. Longs who bought in at higher prices tend to first try to break even when facing a rebound; if prices continue to fall, they are prone to panic selling.
This means that trapped chips themselves may become resistance during subsequent rebounds.
Of course, profitability ratios are only for reference; seeing shorts dominate doesn’t mean blindly chasing shorts. Ultimately, price and key levels must be considered.
The same applies to trading.
It’s a blessing to deeply cultivate your area of expertise over the long term, but staying stagnant will eventually erode your advantage.
You either seize the trend or continuously improve. No progress means regression.
So currently, $ZEC still leans bearish. If rebounds are weak, continue to watch for short opportunities; there’s no need to rush to bottom-fish.
Go with the flow and wait for confirmation—this is more important than entering the market emotionally.😎
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% $ZEC followers, add more positions carefully
Set stop loss around 1250-1290; setting it at 1300 is quite risky
However, ZEC is advancing technically while the capital flow is retreating
Next to watch: October 20 — testnet evaluation. If all goes well, mainnet launches in November, and the technical narrative will take precedence again; if issues arise causing delays, the downtrend will accelerate
So, the price will most likely stabilize around this range
Hope you place orders cautiously!AAVE Evening Explanation
The actual situation of AAVE has been analyzed during the day; the 4H level has been broken, and overall, the long bias is being abandoned.
If you still hold long positions, just wait for this 1-hour level rebound to finish before closing your positions. I also currently have a long position with a cost around 174.5.
The chart indicates the possible rebound path at the 1H level.The most surprising news about $ZEC recently is not the ETF, nor the price.
It's that someone is preparing to spend up to 100 million USD to buy a batch of Zcash miners that haven't even been officially released yet.
Fortitude just signed an LOI with Bitmain to secure priority supply of the next-generation ZEC miners in advance, with a non-binding purchase amount up to 100 million USD, expected to start delivery in Q2 2027.
This timeline is actually quite staggering.
The miners haven't even announced their final specs and prices, yet Fortitude has already rushed to secure production capacity.
And this isn't the first time they've bet on ZEC.
In July this year, Fortitude already spent about 31.5 million USD to order 9,000 Bitmain Z15 Pro units. This batch can add about 7.56 GSol/s of computing power, while Fortitude itself had about 4.7 GSol/s at that time.
Even more astonishing, in the first half of this year, one of its companies mined 72,696 ZEC, roughly accounting for 28% of the total ZEC network output during the same period.
So when you look at the "100 million USD" figure this time, it carries a completely different weight.
Fortitude is buying electricity, mining machines, and production capacity for the coming years, and the company's own goal is to become the largest vertically integrated Zcash mining platform. Just barely escaped being deeply trapped in crude oil, then got hit by a sharp market spike; today's market is mercilessly shaking out high leverage positions.
BTC dropped sharply from 86656 to around 83500 this morning, a 5-minute waterfall drop, with over 1 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, bulls almost completely wiped out. This is not just a simple dump; it's driven by continued strength in US Treasury yields, with the 30-year nearing 5.7%, a strong dollar, and oil prices pushing back above 90 USD due to Middle East risks, causing funds to withdraw from risk assets first.
My trades this morning were quite surreal: PONS long positions almost recovered, crude oil long grid manually stopped for a small 1.75% profit, but then I impulsively shorted crude oil and ended up with a floating loss. This kind of cross-asset jumping is the easiest way to get hit from both sides.
Looking at BTC on the 5-minute chart, after the sharp drop, the MACD green bars are narrowing, RSI has returned to 54, but KDJ's J value surged to 90.2. There's short-term recovery, but don't rush to chase longs before the rebound holds above 85000. 83500 is the first support; if broken, look at 82500–83000 next.
Before the Fed minutes come out tonight, keep your position under 5%, set stop losses properly, and don't bet full positions on direction.
BTC ETH CL #Bitcoin #CrudeOil #FuturesTrading
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop losses must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ Brent breaks 101, but gold falls 2.14%. Tonight, what's falling is not crypto, but interest rates.
First, look at oil: WTI 90.33, Brent 101.58, both up 1%. EIA just raised oil price forecasts for this year and next.
① Interest rates follow. 10Y US Treasury at 5.344%, up 1% in one day. CME shows a 79.5% probability of maintaining rates in October.
② Then everything is sold off together. Gold −2.14%, Dow futures −0.87%, $BTC −3.16%, $ETH −5.52%.
Both safe-haven and risk assets falling together indicates the market is not selling risk, but "high rates will last longer."
③ 658 million in liquidations in 24 hours, 114,000 people liquidated. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETHUSDC, $26.64 million.
In the 1, 4, 12, and 24-hour windows, long positions accounted for 91%, 92%, 94%, and 90% respectively.
Longs have been liquidated from start to finish, with no exceptions in any window.
My futures position is still short, and I haven't moved my spot position.
At 02:00 tonight, the September meeting minutes will be released, with oil prices as a core input. I won't add positions until the minutes are out.
Before the minutes, will you add first or wait for the release?
$BTC $ETH #SeptemberFOMCMinutesReleaseSoon, will rate hikes continue? #Macro
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. CORE has dropped to around $0.02, and many people's first reaction is "Is it dying?" But several data points are worth a second look: over 90% of Bitcoin's hash power participates in Core network security, about 5400–5600 BTC are staked on-chain, CORE staking exceeds 160 million tokens, and institutions like BitGo and Copper are also running nodes. These chips haven't been withdrawn, which doesn't guarantee a price increase, but at least it shows it's not pure air.
The CORE/BTC staking in the OKX node ecosystem is still running, so the short-term risk of delisting by exchanges isn't as dramatic as "losing everything." The real problem is: unlocked selling pressure and ecosystem revenue haven't fully supported the coin price yet, so the short-term remains weak.
So the current odds for CORE are: if it doesn't die, it's a small position gamble on BTCFi recovery; if it dies, it will indeed be painful. But LAB, with such highly concentrated chips, insider control, and manipulable funding rates, isn't necessarily safe to short—one sharp pump could trigger a short squeeze.
Don't hard bet on direction with high leverage on these low-liquidity coins; keep positions within 5% and set stop losses properly.
CORE LAB $BTC #BTCFi #Altcoins #FuturesTrading
The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extreme risk; position sizing and stop losses must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ $BTC is trapped between TWO massive liquidation zones.
Bitcoin has heavy liquidity stacked around $87K above, while an even larger cluster sits around $82K to $84K below.
Whichever side gets swept first could trigger serious volatility.Good evening everyone! It's been really tough to get 100u until now, every time maxing out leverage. Yesterday, my account only had 700 RMB left, I sold BTC short at 86, first did a c2c for 900, and today after waking up, I added another 1000 RMB position at 846. I'm running away now, any crash has nothing to do with me. I'll just make a little money and be happy with eating two meals of pig's feet rice. Everyone, keep it up ETH has broken 2600 again, long positions are directly trapped inside, not even giving a decent rebound. High leverage opening positions fear this kind of slow decline the most; without stop loss, a single spike can shatter your mindset.
Currently, ETH is fluctuating around 2590–2610. The short-term support at 2580 can't hold; below that, watch 2560 and 2540. The upper range 2640–2660 has become resistance; rebounds lack volume, so don't rush to add positions to average down.
At 2 AM tonight, the Fed's September meeting minutes will be released. The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped below 25%, but if the minutes still emphasize inflation stickiness, a rise in the dollar and US Treasury yields could easily drag ETH down again.
My current approach: reduce some positions near 2630 on a rebound, keep a small position waiting for direction; if it breaks below 2580 and fails to recover, no longer stubbornly hold long positions; if it dips to around 2540 and quickly recovers, only then consider small positions to catch the rebound. Keep position size under 5%, stop loss must be set properly.
Don't bet against the big players; they don't care about your small stakes, but your position management will pay the price for you.
BTC $ETH #Ethereum #FuturesTrading
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extremely high risk; position sizing and stop loss must be prioritized.
#SeptemberFOMCMinutesReleaseComingSoon, will rate hikes continue?
#BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks #OKXNOW: Ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets Oil prices soar, crypto market bloodbath! $BTC plunged to 83,000; can it recover after being oversold?
Looking at the market, today's logic is very clear: crude oil is the sole star, while risk assets suffer a brutal sell-off.
Brent crude $BZ reversed sharply from $97.06 in a V-shape, now at $101.09 (+1.91%), directly confirming the logic that the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is driving inflation higher. But the 15-minute J value has dropped to 9.89, indicating an extreme🚨【Ethereum Late Session｜Beijing Time｜Current Price 2560】
This drop has really been brutal.
It was around 2720 earlier, now it’s directly down to 2560, the key round number 2600 has already been broken through. Today's decline is not just a simple technical pullback; leveraged long positions were heavily liquidated, which further amplified the drop.
The most critical point now is whether it can hold around 2560.
On the upside, first watch 2600; only if it retakes 2600 is there a chance to rebound to 2630, then look at 2660.
On the downside, focus on 2550; if 2550 fails to hold, watch out for 2520, and further down near 2500.
In terms of news, market risks have clearly increased recently. Rising oil prices, higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar are all suppressing high-volatility risk assets. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot funds have seen significant outflows recently, and leveraged long liquidations have further magnified the decline.
So don’t rush to bottom-fish just because it’s at 2560.
2600 — first resistance for rebound
2630 — short-term pressure
2660 — boundary between strength and weakness
2550 — current defense
2520 — next support
2500 — important observation level
If it holds around 2560, first see if it can reclaim 2600.
If 2550 is also broken, then continue to watch 2520–2500.
Falling from 2720 all the way to 2560, market sentiment has completely changed. The most important thing now is not to guess the lowest point, but to wait for real support to appear at key levels.$ONDO looks like it's preparing for the fifth wave.
The retracement of the fourth wave is narrowing inside a falling wedge, while RSI and MACD are resetting from below.
A breakout of $0.505–$0.515 and $0.60–$0.63 should be next.Brothers, many are asking why BTC suddenly slipped from the 86,800 area toward 83,700. Pharaoh’s answer: don’t focus only on the size of the drop—understand what is driving it. This move looks like a combination of macro pressure + failed breakout + leveraged positions being flushed out. 📌 1️⃣ Macro pressure is still there The dollar remains firm, Treasury yields are elevated, and oil prices are keeping inflation concerns alive. With traders waiting for the Fed minutes and other macro signals, The biggest fear when trading with high leverage is this kind of sudden dump—just moments ago, the resistance at 87000 was being watched, then suddenly a spike plunged directly to around 83500. Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the network within 24 hours, with longs getting wiped out. I correctly predicted the short direction this time, but the drop was much faster than expected, so I have already closed part of my position to lock in profits.
On the macro side, pressure remains: US Treasury yields are still high, with the 30-year approaching 5.7%, the US dollar index is strengthening, and funding costs remain elevated. Regarding ETFs, after continuous inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in late September, there was a net outflow again in early October, indicating institutional funds are not simply adding positions unilaterally. This explains why the price repeatedly failed to break through around 87000—there is heavy selling pressure and profit-taking above.
BTC's first support is currently around 83200-83500. After the spike today, it quickly pulled back, indicating there is still buying support at this level. ETH is more critical; it has broken below the 2630 range, and 2580-2560 is the key defense line of the bull flag structure. If this is lost, it could open up a larger downside.
Tonight, before the Fed minutes are released, do not chase the direction. Wait for the news to settle and then observe the market's attitude. Don't stubbornly hold high leverage positions now; set stop losses properly and control your position size.
BTC ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ContractTrading
The above is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. High leverage carries extremely high risk; position sizing and stop losses must be prioritized.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 2,560.2 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 353,307.7 USD
▪ Leverage: 15x
Note: This address has earned over 214,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.02% #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
The September FOMC has already implemented a 25bp rate hike. The focus of this minutes release is not on whether to raise rates in September, but on uncovering the internal divisions among voting members about whether to raise rates once more.
Current market pricing: CME FedWatch shows nearly an 80% probability that the October meeting will keep rates unchanged, with a low probability of a rate hike in October; the market's main focus is on December, where the expectation of one more rate hike this year is priced relatively high.
Key points of the minutes: First, the internal disagreement among officials on inflation risks and whether the majority agree that an additional rate hike is needed; second, the assessment of inflationary upside risks from oil prices and the fiscal deficit; third, whether policy needs to retain the option of "higher rates for longer" amid weakening employment data.
Two scenario impacts:
Hawkish minutes: Most voting members believe inflation stickiness remains strong and keep the option of one more hike this year → U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, and crypto assets come under pressure.
Dovish minutes: Some officials worry about slowing employment and believe this hike is the last in the current cycle → Interest rate expectations decline, benefiting risk assets.
Core constraint: The Fed's policy is not on a preset path and fully depends on subsequent CPI, PCE, and nonfarm payroll data. The minutes only reflect views at the September meeting; new data will quickly rewrite rate hike expectations.
Key follow-ups: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, core PCE, and crude oil prices.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC adam3us posted a very interesting commemorative message:
It has been 10 years since Snyke and Rusty Russell completed the first Lightning test transaction.
It wasn't until January 2018 that the first Bitcoin transaction with real value appeared.
This ten-year timespan is definitely worth pausing to reflect on.
Lightning has already gone through at least one full market cycle, evolving from early testnet transactions to gradually entering wallets, exchanges, and payment scenarios.
What it truly changed was not Bitcoin's narrative, but the fee structure of transactions.
A large number of small, high-frequency payments can be handled off-chain, with the main chain responsible for final settlement.
In other words, Bitcoin's payment layer and settlement layer have begun to be divided.
This also shifted the Bitcoin scaling question from "how big should blocks be" to "what should the main chain handle and how much should the second layer bear."
Looking back after ten years, those experiments that once seemed risky may slowly become the most inconspicuous infrastructure.
Many projects struggle to survive even one bull and bear cycle.
Only technologies that truly survive cycles and continue to be used qualify to be called infrastructure.BTC offers a low entry opportunity, sharing this $BTC limit buy order.
Plan to place a buy order around 82800, target 84000-84500, stop loss at 81900.
Only use 3% position size, no additional averaging down.
Currently, the market shows short-term bullish momentum weakening, but major support remains, no one-sided decline formed.
Observing funding rates, not yet negative, shorts have not been effectively squeezed. #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？
Two entry strategies:
More conservative: wait to add at 82300;
More aggressive: try directly at 82800 with a smaller initial position.
If subsequent stepwise pullbacks continue, once broken, focus on defending the 82000 support line below. $ETH $ZEC $FIL Honestly, the liquidation amount here isn't that large, clearly not enough to trigger much panic selling. So my previous judgment from September 29 still stands: ETH is due for a major correction. The first red line I drew is around 2560, which was just briefly pierced at 2587; the second is near 2360. As I said before, since August 18, there hasn't been much liquidation of 5-10X long leverage, so it definitely will happen. I am definitely not bottom-fishing now; I'd rather miss out than🚨 $ZEC whales are ramping up their bets again!
This time, they're targeting not small positions, but nearly $158 million in perpetual contract funds.
Currently, the four largest positions are:
• $BTC: about $38.96 million, 40x leverage
• $ETH: about $97.26 million, 25x leverage
• $HYPE: about $14.28 million, 10x leverage
• $PUMP: about $7.62 million, 10x leverage
The most notable is $ETH, with a single position close to $100 million, accounting for over 60% of the total positions.
All four directions are currently in profit, but high leverage means risks are also amplified.
The real focus is no longer "how much can be earned," but:
📌 Can this $158 million continue to withstand volatility?
📌 Or will there be a rapid sell-off that quickly erases the floating profits?
Positions like these yield beautiful profits when winning, but reversals can be very fast.
I will closely watch the key supports of $ETH and $BTC; once the structure breaks, risks may simultaneously increase.
⚠️ In high-leverage markets, control risk first, then talk about returns.
#SepFOMCRateHikeOutlook #BTCWhalePressureEases #OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra $CAP setting up a sell trade... next target 0.0730
Entry: 0.0830–0.0850
TP1: 0.0790
Next price: 0.0780
Final target: 0.0730
Stop loss: 0.0910
CAP is losing momentum after the strong rise and struggling below the last peak. As long as the 0.0910 level acts as resistance, I expect another correction toward 0.0730.
Trading via $CAP #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架
The CLARITY Act was stalled in the Senate, but these two major U.S. regulatory agencies haven't been idle—they've stepped in to take action themselves.
On October 5th, the CFTC issued a preliminary notice stating it intends to use its existing authority under the Commodity Exchange Act to establish a nationwide unified regulatory framework for retail crypto trading involving leverage and margin. They are also considering creating a dedicated registration category for crypto markets. Meanwhile, on October 1st, the SEC proposed new custody rules that would allow investment advisers to self-custody client assets under certain conditions, and state-chartered trust companies could also serve as custodians. Both initiatives are moving forward simultaneously—one regulating trading rules, the other asset custody.
So what impact does this have on our crypto community? Let me share two points.
First, don’t treat this as a short-term bullish catalyst. Both are still in proposal and public comment stages, far from final implementation. With Congress holding things up, the SEC and CFTC paving the way themselves shows regulation is progressing, but the pace won’t be fast. It might soothe sentiment in the short term but doesn’t justify a direct price surge.
Second, the long-term direction is becoming clearer. The CFTC aims to unify leverage trading rules, and the SEC wants to clarify custody frameworks—both efforts are clearing obstacles for institutional capital to enter. Previously, institutions feared unclear rules and crossing red lines; now that rules are gradually clarified, big money will feel confident to come in. This is foundational work, not a short-term catalyst.
What’s your take?
$BTC Core DAO's so-called trump card (core technology + benchmark product) 1. Underlying trump card: Satoshi Plus consensus (biggest narrative selling point) 1. Hybrid consensus: Bitcoin hashrate + BTC staking + CORE staking jointly protect the network, promoted as a "Bitcoin security-enhanced EVM public chain." 2. Supports self-custody BTC staking: Bitcoin requires no cross-chain or packaging; users can stake and earn rewards using Bitcoin's native time lock, with asset users keeping their own private keys, which is its biggest difference from other BTC layer 2 platforms. 3. Dual Staking: Staking BTC + CORE simultaneously unlocks higher yields and creates demand for CORE tokens. 4. EVM compatibility; Ethereum tools and contracts can be directly migrated, with fast transfer speeds and low fees. Risks: Consensus logic is complex, with past validator reward vulnerabilities requiring hard fork fixes, and mechanism complexity poses security risks. 2. BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi, main ecosystem track) 1. Self-custody BTC staking system: The project's first flagship product, turning dormant Bitcoin into yield-generating assets, without needing to hand over BTC to custodians. Generates BTC liquid staking certificates, which can continue to be used in ecosystem lending and DEXs. 2. Colend (flagship lending): A leading native lending protocol in the ecosystem, allowing staking BTC/LST for collateral lending; Current status: The contract still exists, but TVL is shrinking"This is the hard cap; we won't buy more than 5%." BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said this today at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, signaling that the world's largest Ethereum treasury company is about to stop buying.
Let's do the math: BitMine holds about 6.029 million ETH. Based on a total supply of approximately 122.1 million, 5% equals about 6.105 million ETH, leaving only about 76,000 ETH quota, worth roughly $195 million at current prices. The company also has about $643 million in cash and securities, enough to buy this quota three times over.
This company has been buying weekly since June 2025 and is the most stable buyer of ETH. CoinDesk cited DropsTab saying this batch of ETH currently has an unrealized loss of about $4.5 billion. Tom Lee said in August that they might reconsider exceeding 5% in 2027, but today he closed the door on that. Any excess ETH from staking rewards might be sold to maintain the 5% cap.
At the time of writing, ETH on OKX is about 2563, down about 5.5% in 24 hours, with an intraday low around 2553. At last week's buying pace of about $41 million, this final 76,000 ETH will be bought in roughly five weeks.
For this last 76,000 ETH, do you think BitMine will finish buying below 2500, or wait until ETH returns to 2700 to buy?
$ETH Crypto Market Brief
📉 Today's decline feels more like a macro shock rather than a deterioration in crypto fundamentals.
Rising oil prices, sustained high 10-year US Treasury yields, and a relatively strong dollar are continuously draining liquidity from risk assets. Subsequently, about $403 million long positions were liquidated, further amplifying the drop.
However, the market structure has not been completely broken yet.
👉 Key BTC support to watch: $80,000
👉 Tonight's FOMC minutes could be the next catalyst
👉 Next major macro data is the CPI on October 14
Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first observe if macro sentiment and key supports hold.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Added clearer short-term support and resistance
Adjusted market outlook to be more cautious and objective
Condensed into a shorter version more suitable for social media posting #Solana Tokenized Stocks September Trading Volume Surpasses $4.4 Billion
Message from the leader
The trading volume of tokenized stocks on the Solana chain exceeded $4.4 billion in September, setting a new record. Meanwhile, the Solana Foundation launched an open-source settlement program for financial institutions called Solana DvP, which synchronizes assets and payments within the same on-chain transaction through a delivery-versus-payment mechanism, achieving finality within seconds. J.P. Morgan provided institutional settlement practice advice and external security audits have been completed.
This signals the real-world asset (RWA) implementation on Solana, not just a concept. Tokenized stock trading volume is rising, institutional settlement tools are being supplemented, and the path is becoming smoother. This is a long-term positive for the SOL ecosystem.
However, SOL dropped 3.81% today. The positive news is not being acknowledged. The reason lies in the capital flow: BTC ETF funds are returning, while ETH and SOL are still flowing out; money is choosing certainty. Coupled with long-term US Treasury yields above 5.6%, high interest rates are weighing down, putting pressure on risk assets overall.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
My 86500 short position on Bitcoin is still open. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The logic remains unchanged: positive news is priced in, and there is dense resistance above. Not chasing SOL, waiting for capital to return.
Control your position size well, avoid heavy exposure. Set stop losses properly, do not hold through losses.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set. Good luck.🔥 Key levels to watch
* $87,000 🔴 — major resistance. BTC has been rejected around this level repeatedly.
* $83,000 🟡 — critical support. A decisive break could open a move toward $80,000.
* $86,500–$87,000 🟢 — reclaiming this zone would strengthen the bullish case. Coinbase Pro is actually coming back.
I originally thought Coinbase was just picking up this old name again, but after carefully reading today's announcement, I found that what they want to do this time is much bigger than before.
Coinbase has completed the integration of Deribit, and the new Coinbase Global Exchange has officially taken shape. Deribit's trading volume exceeded 1 trillion USD last year, and as of the end of September, BTC options open interest alone exceeded 30 billion USD.
In the coming weeks, Coinbase will gradually add crypto options, spot margin, and unified portfolios; by the end of the year, the relaunched Coinbase Pro is prepared to put spot, futures, perpetuals, options, and even stocks into one professional trading platform.
This is getting interesting.
Previously, Coinbase always felt like a "buy-coin gateway" to me. For high-frequency trading, options, or complex strategies, many professional traders would still split their funds across different platforms.
Now it is clearly not satisfied with that position anymore.
Especially after acquiring Deribit, Coinbase suddenly has a very critical piece of the puzzle in hand: options liquidity. $HYPE This short position moved more smoothly than expected, opening near 93.534 and pushing down all the way to around 88.9, with unrealized profits close to 2.5 times. After the failed surge at 95.257 earlier, the highs and lows have been continuously moving lower, with the 92 and 90 levels successively broken, basically giving the bears little breathing room.
Now the 1-hour price is close to the previous low at 88.7, MACD is still expanding below the zero line, and the 4-hour chart is also in a weak zone, indicating that this round of decline has not yet shown a clear reversal. However, KDJ has already been pushed to a low level, so be cautious of a sudden rebound if it continues to drop.
If the short-term rebound cannot reclaim the area near 90, the bearish structure still dominates; only if it can truly stand back above 90.1 should one consider whether a recovery phase is beginning. With profits close to 2.5 times already, the latter part is more suitable for moving while protecting gains, without needing to fully ride the last leg down. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ After looking at WLD's position data, I was silent. The money playing this game is on a completely different level than ours—the long positions over there are nearly six times the short positions, 40+ million versus 7 million, and even with an 8.6% drop, they can still earn lying down. Is this still called hedging? This is a one-sided declaration of war, betting that retail investors can't hold on and will be cut first. Now I finally understand: the same red lower shadow candle means an avalanche to some, but money to others. The price at 0.5158 is much lower than yesterday, yet their positions remain openly unchanged. Ordinary people shaking in this kind of setup will lose a month's salary. Just watch and don't get involved—you are not in that position. $WLD Today's 8:30 ET has no major macro data. Pre-market environment is not very favorable for high-beta tech stocks: Nasdaq futures are weak, 10-year US Treasury yields remain high, and oil prices are rebounding. So today, don't prioritize bottom-fishing. The strategy is: wait for high-level stocks to rebound and short; Only consider stocks with truly independent strong structures. 🥇 MSTR | Today's highest-priority BTC was weak before opening, and MSTR itself is a high-beta target. In this environment, I don't recommend buying shorts directly; instead: wait for the rebound to 160–162, then go short after obvious pressure. Set a stop loss at 164.8. The first target is 155.5–156; if BTC continues to weaken in tandem, then look at 151.5–153. Cancellation condition: MSTR strongly holds above 164.8, or BTC quickly turns strong again, canceling short plans. ⸻ 🥈 SPCX | Previous gains are too large, prioritize waiting for a rebound Shorting SPCX has recently because: strong trend, but also very large gains. With weakening index and interest rate environments, once these high-beta stocks start taking profits, volatility will significantly amplify. So don't chase at low levels: 170.5–172 rebound but not → short. Stop loss at 174.8. TP1 166–167，TP2 162–163。 Conditions removed: Break above 174.8 again, indicating a strong structural recovery, abandon short selling. ⸻ Who understands? 😭
I was stuck in this position for a week, and today it finally turned profitable—up 40% on the short.
I closed it immediately.
The reason: during the uptrend, we saw a week of sideways consolidation rather than a real breakdown. The previous rally showed a similar pattern.
So even at these highs, I’m not rushing to turn bearish. I’ll wait for another 15-minute candle.
After trading crypto for so long, one thing is clear: waiting for the right setup beats constantly Q3 Tokenized Stock Report, some key data:
Total market cap is 3.6 billion USD, with 4.7 million holding addresses, most of which were added this quarter;
90-day DEX trading volume is about 40 billion USD;
Binance bStocks market cap accounts for 21.3%, ranking first; Robinhood market cap only accounts for 4.7%, but holders make up nearly 30%;
In terms of trading volume, BNB Chain accounts for half, Robinhood Chain accounts for 30%;
The most popular individual stock is Nvidia.
My view:
Stock tokenization is the main trend, and this quarter's growth proves it;
Robinhood wins with more retail investors but loses with less capital. (The crypto-stock meme brought many casually holding addresses) The real land grab is by Binance;
DeFi locked value is only 260 million USD, the "second layer" of on-chain stocks (lending, wealth management) is still in very early stages.Mysten Labs and Google Cloud are jointly developing a decentralized verification infrastructure called Verifiable Agent Arbiter (VAA).
When AI Agents start managing funds, data, and account permissions on behalf of users, how can we prove they haven't exceeded their authorized scope?
In the past, it relied more on "trusting the Agent," but once entering enterprise and financial scenarios, mere trust in the model is clearly insufficient.
The idea behind VAA is to separate the verification layer.
What the Agent has executed and whether it operated strictly within the authorized scope can be verified through an independent verification infrastructure.
More importantly, sensitive detailed operation records are still stored within the customer's own controlled Google Cloud environment.
In other words:
The verification layer is responsible for proof, while the customer is responsible for preserving the original records.
One solves "whether verification is possible," the other solves "whether data needs to be handed over."
Behind this is actually a problem that AI Agent commercialization must face.
When an Agent operates your funds, permissions, and data, what truly matters is not just what it can accomplish, but whether, if something goes wrong, it can answer:
What did it do?
Did it exceed its authority?
Where should the responsibility lie?
What the Agent economy truly lacks may not be smarter models, but a verifiable and accountable operational ledger.$BTC Bitcoin/Ethereum have been declining since the early session with weak rebounds, showing an overall bearish trend and obvious resistance above. The previous secondary highs at 87000 and 2780 indeed formed a double top pattern on the daily chart, confirming a secondary peak. The subsequent major trend remains bearish, though there will be some short-term rebounds. On the 4-hour chart, there was a sharp decline forming a large bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong selling pressure but also some buying support below. The price has broken multiple recent key support levels, hitting a new phase low and showing a weak overall pattern.
Technically, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line, with DIF continuously diverging downward. The MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating very strong bearish momentum. The volume increase during the decline confirms the strong intervention of bears and validates the current downtrend. Attention should be paid to important short-term supports at 82500 and 2540 during the evening and early morning; if these break, the market will likely fall further.
Evening trading suggestions: Buy Bitcoin near 83000 to 83500, target around 84800; buy Ethereum near 2550 to 2570, target around 2630; stop loss at 82500 and 2530 respectively. #September FOMC minutes release imminent, will rate hikes continue? #BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks #OKXNOW: ushering in a new era of 24/7 markets My trading read: 📉 Short-term bearish/cautious while ETH remains below $2,700. Watch $2,580 closely; if buyers defend it and ETH reclaims $2,650–$2,700, the setup becomes more bullish.
Also, Fed minutes are due today, which could create volatility across ETH and BTC.📉BTC dips again! Drops over 1500 overnight, support levels continuously broken
$BTC
BTC price has fallen to 83710, last night it was still at 85335, a sharp drop of more than 1500 points in a short time. The partial position reduced near 86800 earlier now looks like a brilliant move👍
Market observation💡
There are only sporadic buy orders in the 83500-83800 range, with weak support, while sell orders keep piling up above. Current volume hasn't surged dramatically, so this isn't a panic sell-off but rather bulls unable to withstand pressure, passively cutting losses and slowly exiting.
Since the high of 86994, the price has slid continuously, with support levels at 86000, 85500, 85000, and 84000 all being easily broken like paper.
$BTC key levels update:
✅Support: 83200-83500; if broken, next target is 82500-82800, further down to 82000
✅Resistance: 84200-84800; if the rebound can't hold this range, the market remains weak, don't blindly call for a bull comeback.
Market outlook: The trend is dominated by bears, rebounds should be seen as corrections, no rush to bottom-fish, strictly use stop-losses and control position size.
⚠️This is only a market review and discussion, not any trading advice. Contract leverage carries very high risk!
👉Can the 83200 support hold against selling pressure? My trading read: 📉 Short-term bearish/cautious while ETH remains below $2,700. Watch $2,580 closely; if buyers defend it and ETH reclaims $2,650–$2,700, the setup becomes more bullish.
Also, Fed minutes are due today, which could create volatility across ETH and BTC. $HYPE is skyrocketing, HYPE from 90 to 93 dollars, just 5% away from the September 23 high of 98, uniquely leading the entire market in hitting new highs.
2026 revenue is about 429 million dollars in real cash. On October 3, the first 50 million dollars USDC reserve interest (14.5 million) will be transferred into the buyback pool for burn, with monthly compounding thereafter. The Assistance Fund has historically spent over 1.3 billion dollars to buy HYPE, and Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs were listed in May.
Today, 3.75 million team tokens were sold OTC to a single institution; the off-exchange absorption prevented a dump on the exchange, so short-term selling pressure is relatively small. TOKEN2049 Singapore opens today.
Up to 9.9 million tokens unlock monthly (at 93 dollars, about 920 million dollars), the team holding all would be a mountain. 98 is the previous high resistance level; there will be selling before breaking through.
98 is the critical point; closing above it targets 100, holding 87.5 is safe, breaking 81.25 is weak. Near the new high and far from unlocking, don’t let FOMO cloud your judgment. #以太坊Glamsterdam upgrade launches on Sepolia testnet
200 million gas is not granted by the upgrade — each validator must fill it themselves. $ETH
▪️ Sepolia's block gas limit increased from about 60 million to 200 million, but this is a soft consensus voted stepwise by validators — 200 million is a client target, not a hard cap flipped on upgrade day
▪️ The day before the upgrade, a consensus client urgently released a new version: the old default remained 60 million, so without changing settings, small blocks would continue to be produced
▪️ The real protocol change is ePBS — moving "who assembles the block" from off-chain into the protocol, at the cost of increasing the block data propagation window from about 2 seconds to about 9 seconds: capacity 3.3x, window 4.5x
▪️ This handover is publicly run for the first time, on a testnet with free test tokens: flooding with builder identities, bidding high but not delivering, the cost of stalling block production is zero
The divergence is not whether L1 can handle 3.3x capacity, but that between "allowed to handle" and "actually handling" lies each validator's individual setting.
The direction is upward capacity, the route is in the protocol. The unlocking condition is validators on Hoodi filling the 200 million fully and maintaining block production rate; failure is batches of empty blocks appearing in this testnet round.Open interest for ADA dropped by 16.22%, with the price falling by 9.21% and funding remaining negative. $DOGE decreased by 8.34%, and $LINK fell by 7.34%, while $SOL was the only exception, with open interest rising by 0.93% amid negative funding and a decline of 2.51%.ETH is around $2,600, and everyone is asking: “Is this the dip?”
Before buying, watch three things:
• 786K ETH remains in the exit queue, meaning potential selling pressure isn’t gone.
• The $11.61-cost whale has sold only 13,330 ETH—how much does he still hold?
• Glamsterdam is live on testnet, but mainnet has been pushed to Q4, so the bullish catalyst is taking longer to materialize.
At $2,600, I’m not rushing to catch the falling knife. Let ETH prove the selling pressure is fading first.