Orbit Post Sitemap
$ZEC｜Bearish bias, wait for a rebound before reassessing
4h RSI 37.2, lower boundary; 1h RSI 37.6, mid-level, MACD trending down.
Observation: Wait for a rebound at 1317–1326 (1h rebound zone), current price is still below the zone.
Timing: Slightly low below the zone, wait for the rebound to confirm.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 bars of 4h); ends once the lower target is reached or invalidated, no forced holding.
Downside target 1271; breaking above 1418 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades; wait for a drop back to EMA55 before reconsidering.
In short: Bearish bias, wait for rebound, not recommended to short chase.
For analysis only, not advice or trade instruction.$BTC｜Bullish bias, within the pullback zone, can be referenced
4h RSI 53.9, mid-level; 1h RSI 51.8, slightly high, MACD trending up.
Observation: The pullback zone 84629–84752 (1h pullback zone) has been reached, current price is within the zone.
Timing: Within the pullback zone, suitable for reference (do not chase the rally).
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends when the upside target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 87222; breaking below 83857 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Bullish bias, within the pullback zone, can be referenced.
$SOL｜Bullish bias, but position is relatively high, not recommended to chase
4h RSI 52.1, mid-level; 1h RSI 53.1, slightly high, MACD trending up.
Observation: Waiting for pullback 119.07–119.4 (1h pullback zone), current price is still above the zone.
Timing: Above the zone and relatively high, wait for pullback to the zone before referencing.
Window: About 4–12 hours (1–3 4h candles); ends when the upside target is reached or invalidated, do not hold stubbornly.
Upside target 123.74; breaking below 117.99 is considered invalidation.
If invalidated, do not force trades, wait to retake EMA55 before considering.
In short: Direction is bullish bias, but only wait for pullback, not recommended to chase.
For analysis only, not advice or trading instructions.[Old Leek Observation] $LINEA
The MetaMask security incident has started to affect Linea. Linea official confirmation:
Some validator nodes supporting Yield Boost are exiting. Currently, the treasury funds and control rights have not been affected.
What is truly affected is:
The staking rewards that Linea's ecosystem incentives rely on will temporarily decrease.
The reason is that after MetaMask Staking encountered an infrastructure security incident, it began actively exiting the affected Ethereum validator nodes.
And Linea's Yield Boost itself depends on external validator nodes.
So the real concern here is not "LINEA being hacked."
But rather:
An external validator infrastructure problem is starting to propagate downstream to DeFi incentive mechanisms.
This is also a risk that is easily overlooked as DeFi becomes increasingly complex.
LINEA is still around $0.0028 now, with no obvious panic in price.
Going forward, the focus is on when replacement validator nodes will be added and how much the Yield Boost incentive rewards will recover.
Entry: $0.00270–$0.00282
Take profit: $0.00300 / $0.00325 / $0.00355 / $0.00390 / $0.00430
Stop loss: $0.00255 🔥 Nonfarm payrolls shocked the market, causing a brief rally in the crypto space, but it still couldn't hold!
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
After the data release, rate cut expectations briefly heated up, but the market quickly gave its answer:
🟠 $BTC surged to 87,238, then fell back to 84,600;
🔵 $ETH touched 2,760, then quickly dropped back to 2,680;
🟣 $SOL spiked to 122 before retreating to 119.
It looks like good news, but in reality, it was more like an emotional pulse.
More importantly, BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, with incremental funds not keeping up, so the rally was naturally easy to be crushed.
So don’t simply interpret “weak nonfarm = crypto must rise.”
What really determines the trend are Federal Reserve policies, interest rates, the dollar, and capital flows.
A single nonfarm report can’t change the big cycle; whether it can hold is what really matters going forward.
Don’t let a single bullish candle make decisions for you.
The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Next week, we can still refer to the short-term trading points for gold:
1. On Friday, it tested the bottom again and rebounded. In the short term, consider going long first. Use 4110-4125 as the final support level to gradually go long again, with a stop loss at 4095 to prevent a sharp drop. The target continues to look at the resistance around 4185-4195!
2. In the short term, as the rebound recovers, continue to watch the resistance above. If 4185-4195 is tested but not broken, continue to short, with a stop loss at 4215. The short position target is around 4145-4155 to exit first! Even if it rebounds again above 4200, the bulls will find it hard to continue. Above, consider shorting again around 4215-4225, with a stop loss at 4235 to prevent a sharp rise. The target remains around 4155-4165 below.
Looking ahead to next week's gold market, the market will again focus on the Fed's September meeting minutes and US September service sector data to judge the pace of the Fed's high interest rate policy implementation. From an operational perspective, there is no need to blindly chase highs or sell lows. The overall approach is mainly small-range oscillation with long and short trades. In the short term, continue to focus on the resistance zone from 4195 to 4225; short positions can be taken when resistance is reached. On the downside, rely on strong support from 4100 to 4110; after a pullback stabilizes, long positions can be arranged. Follow the market's oscillation rhythm to seize short-term opportunities. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, the economy is quickly stalling, yet Bitcoin broke 87,000.
The worse the economy = the further the rate hikes = the higher the crypto prices. This logic is cruel but true.
Institutional ETFs have been buying for 9 consecutive days, totaling $2.4 billion in a single week. Retail investors are still shouting that the bear market isn't over.
It's always the same script: when you are fearful, someone is accumulating.
#US September nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% $BTC $ETH $Spot ETF funds are flowing out simultaneously, and the cooling heat is dragging down high-beta targets like $SKHYNIX. I tend to think that a short-term rebound is unlikely to change the oscillating bearish pattern. The one-hour uptrend and four-hour downtrend form a clear contradiction, indicating a huge divergence between bulls and bears, making it easy to be caught in two-way traps when chasing gains or cutting losses. The current price is 1372, 2.76% below the four-hour high, but already 5.34% above the short-term low. Sell orders are 248 versus buy orders at 197, with a ratio of 0.79, showing selling pressure dominance; funding rate is zero, open interest is 31,000, and sentiment is cautious. Strategy-wise, lightly short at a rebound to 1376.5, stop loss at 1383.5, target 1362.8; if it pulls back to 1361.2 without breaking, go short-term long, stop loss at 1354.6, target 1374.2, with a single position not exceeding 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$SKHYNIX#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $SKHYNIX BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat, and UNI is hard to remain unaffected. I judge that short-term linkage is under pressure, with limited rebound strength.
UNI is currently quoted at 8.976, down slightly by 0.9% in 24 hours, with a volatility of 8.8% and a turnover of 13.782 million. It is rising over 4 hours but has retraced 16.22% from the high; over 1 hour it is only 3.36% above the low, indicating short-term bulls still exist but momentum is weakening. The buy-sell ratio is 0.64, with obvious selling pressure; the funding rate is 0.01%, slightly neutral; open interest is 5.567 million coins, with cautious sentiment.
Strategically, if it pulls back to 8.598, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss at 8.342 and a target of 9.247; if it rebounds to around 9.284 and is resisted, a short position can be taken, with a stop loss at 9.512 and a target of 8.721. Position control should be within 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$UNI#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $UNI ATOM/USDT — BUY ON RETEST
ATOM is holding the $1.60–$1.66 demand zone after rejecting the $2.03 high.
Entry: $1.60–$1.66
SL: $1.50
TP1: $1.88
TP2: $2.03
MACD has cooled, so confirmation matters. A reclaim of $1.88 would strengthen the continuation setup.
Invalidation: Daily close below $1.50.
Cosmos is also working on ATOM tokenomics redesign and expanding Hub infrastructure, including IBC/Ethereum connectivity.
$ATOM
#OKXTraderVoices
#OKXOrbitTopics $SOL It's the weekend today, and the movement of SOL is exactly as I predicted yesterday.
Yesterday, influenced by the non-farm payroll data, it couldn't break the new high of 125 and quickly fell back. The support between 115-117 below still hasn't been broken.
So it continues to fluctuate. I mentioned yesterday to reduce positions at this level, but since I am optimistic about Monday's potential break below, I didn't reduce.
The key focus is on the 115 level; if it breaks, the trend will emerge.
$BTC Bitcoin is completely fluctuating and falling back, not much different from yesterday's analysis. It can't break the new high of 88000, so it will definitely continue to fluctuate.
The support below has been slightly raised; 83500-84000 is now the support for the decline. It is expected to continue fluctuating for a while since without news-driven momentum, it's hard to form a trend.
The resistance above should be around 86000-86500. This can be used as a reference for T trading. NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回, the cross-chain security recovery is a positive sentiment for high-liquidity protocols like CL, but my overall judgment remains weak consolidation, and the recovery does not change the capital's cautious stance.
24h only up 0.2% to 91.25, trading volume 4.635 million, buy orders at 19,000 vs sell orders at 28,000, ratio 0.68, selling pressure is heavy. 1-hour trend is up but 4-hour trend is down, 91.97 forms near-term resistance, 90.38 is key support.
Strategy 1: Light short at rebound to 91.85, stop loss at 92.35, target 90.45; Strategy 2: Buy on dip at 90.42, stop loss at 89.95, target 91.72. Funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 368,000, sentiment neutral to cautious, single position should not exceed 5%.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$CL#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 $CL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Anchor: Let's clarify today's three main lines first — macro didn't give a green light, ETFs are reducing positions, and only key levels remain on the chart.
Macro line:
US added 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, labor market clearly cooling down. Normally, rate cut trades should be excited, but the US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 is preparing to release up to 100 million barrels from reserves, making oil prices and inflation expectations sensitive again. So high interest rates continue to suppress valuations, and capital is hesitant to take risks rashly.
Capital line:
Spot ETFs shifted from "continuous buying" to "withdrawing a bit first." BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $3.1 billion over the previous 9 days, but from September 30th over two days, a net outflow of about $173 million; ETH had net outflows for 3 consecutive days, with about $55.4 million withdrawn on October 1st alone; SOL spot ETFs still had a net inflow of about $188 million last week, but turned to an outflow of about $5.9 million on October 1st. The moves aren't large, but the direction indicates: willingness to chase highs is declining.
Technical line:
BTC is fluctuating between 85,000 and 86,000, with 86,000 as the short-term strength/weakness dividing line; only breaking above it can we talk about a trend; 82,000 is short-term support.
ETH is between 2,700 and 2,750, with 2,770 as resistance above; only after breaking through can we look at 2,800.
SOL is around 120, with 118 as strong support.
$BTC $ETH $SOL People are still debating whether $BTC is digital gold or just another tech asset.
The argument for fixed supply is strong. The 21M cap built in scarcity. But when you look at its correlation with Nasdaq's movement, it feels more like a "risk appetite" trading asset.
To put it simply, it probably has both qualities. The store of value argument takes time. Correlation with stocks doesn't break the narrative—it just means adoption is still in early stages and is still mainly dominated by the same group trading tech stocks.
In the long run, comparing it to gold makes sense. In the short term, it trades like other assets in this market Tesla Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, igniting risk appetite, but MMT did not follow the rally and instead showed independent weakness, indicating that short-term funds prefer their own rhythm. My judgment is that the rebound can be shorted, and not chased on the upside.
Current price 0.185, down 1.2% in 24 hours, high 0.1905, low 0.1763, turnover 1.095 million, funding rate 0.0050%, open interest 8.324 million. 1-hour trend is down, 4-hour trend still up, buy orders 19,000 slightly outweigh sell orders 17,000, buy/sell ratio 1.11.
Strategy 1: Light short position at rebound to 0.1885, stop loss at 0.1915, target 0.1775. Strategy 2: If it pulls back to 0.1768 and stabilizes, can go short-term long, stop loss at 0.1742, target 0.1845. Single position controlled within 5%, exit immediately if broken, no holding against the trend.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$MMT#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5%
#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% $MMT Brothers, $BTC has been chopping back and forth around 85000 this week, yesterday it touched 87239 then dropped back to 84583, both bulls and bears have been worn down. But seeing that wick actually gave me some relief: the sell wall at 85000-85500 was eaten through, pressure relieved, last night looked more like a pullback after clearing obstacles. If 80,000 holds steady, the trend still has a chance.
Macro: Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, previous two months revised down by 60,000, October rate hike bets slid from 36% to 15%, Nasdaq hit new highs. But US Treasury yields at 5.29, energy prices not low, inflation not retreating, December still uncertain. Pause does not equal reversal.
Funds: BTC ETF inflows stopped after nine consecutive inflows totaling 3.1 billion, single-day net outflow of 149 million, ETH also outflowed 59.6 million. Institutional buying rhythm interrupted, short-term pressure; post-holiday inflows will count as recovery.
Technical: Support at 81500-83000, cost bottom at 77200, 80500 is the bull line. ETH grinding at 2700, 2709 is sell order resistance, support at 2668-2636, only above 2784 can we look to 3000. ZEC pulled from 480 to 1698, retraced to 1333, exploded 1.81 million long orders, Grayscale outflowed 30.25 million, hacker transferred 2746 coins; RSI 50.2, ADX 52, EMA intact, as long as 1233 holds there’s still a chance at 1410, but wicks and shakeouts are fierce.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🚨 Nonfarm payrolls surprise, risk assets repriced
⚠️ $BTC and $ETH bulls face resistance tests
🔶 $BTC: Failed to break $87K, retreated to around $85.1K
🔷 $ETH: $2.7K gained then lost, now hovering around $2.69K
🇺🇸 September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29K, far below the expected ~90K; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth slowed to about 3.0% year-over-year. Data reinforces expectations for a more cautious Fed, but the crypto market did not rally accordingly.
📉 The seemingly positive but weak data caused a brief spike, followed by selling pressure; profit-taking near key resistance suppressed momentum.
BTC: $84.5K–$85K is the primary short-term support
ETH: $2.65K–$2.67K remains the bull-bear dividing line
If support holds → a new round of upward attempts may be brewing.
If support breaks → deeper consolidation may occur.
Next direction requires confirmation from both price and volume, not just macro headlines.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Today, the divergence among small-cap coins has become quite exaggerated: WLD surged over 8% against the trend, SUI dropped over 4%, and LINK also pulled back nearly 4%. The overall market did not experience extreme volatility, yet these three high Beta coins moved in completely opposite directions, indicating that funds are no longer broadly buying small-cap coins but are directly rotating positions.
#SmallCapStrengthAndWeaknessFullyDiverged
#FundsChoosingDirectionAgain
$WLD is currently around 0.544, up over 8% in 24 hours, with 0.52–0.53 having become the first support again; the immediate resistance is at 0.55, and only after a solid breakout with volume can we look toward around 0.57. WLD's biggest advantage now is clear active capital, but after continuous acceleration, chasing the straight line is not advisable.
$SUI is currently around 1.125, down over 4% in 24 hours, with 1.10–1.12 remaining the first defense; only after reclaiming 1.16 can we look toward 1.20, and before recovering 1.16, it should be treated as a weak correction.
$LINK is currently around 13.88, with 13.7–13.8 as the first support, and 14.2–14.3 becoming resistance again; only after a real breakout can we look toward 14.6.
This lineup: WLD defends 0.52, SUI waits at 1.16, LINK waits at 14.3. The most valuable now is not the deeply fallen coins, but the direction where funds actively rush in even when the market is weak. Non-farm cooling fails to suppress U.S. Treasury yields, long-term interest rate pressure remains, risk appetite recovery is limited, SOL is unlikely to show independent strength in the short term, I tend to expect a weak oscillation and wait for breakout confirmation.
Current price 119.52, down slightly 0.4% in 24h, resistance at high 120.39, support at low 117.03, trading volume 4.96 million is relatively light. Funding rate 0.0087% indicates mild bullish sentiment, open interest 3.006 million with no obvious reduction, but order book buy/sell ratio 0.94 shows sellers slightly dominant; 4-hour distance from low 19.54% indicates mid-term rebound structure intact, 1-hour rise distance from high only 3.19%, short-term is at the end of convergence.
Strategy: if it pulls back to 117.65 and stabilizes, light long positions can be tried, stop loss at 116.35, target 121.85; if volume breaks below 116.35, switch to bearish targeting 113.95. Position control within 20%, do not chase highs before breakout.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$SOL #U.S. September non-farm only increased by 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
#Non-farm cooling fails to suppress U.S. Treasury yields, long-term interest rate pressure remains $SOL Non-farm cooling fails to suppress US Treasury yields, and long-term interest rate pressure remains, which limits the rebound space for risk assets like KAITO. I tend to believe the current situation is just a weak recovery after an oversell, and it is not advisable to chase the rally. Although the four-hour chart is rising, it has retraced 6.16% from the high; the one-hour chart is declining and only 7.89% above the low, indicating short-term momentum is bearish. The trading volume is 29.529 million, and the funding rate of 0.0050% shows longs are still paying; open interest is 11.642 million with no obvious reduction. The top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.92, with sellers slightly dominant. Support is near 0.317, and key resistance is at 0.3524. Strategically, if the rebound faces pressure near 0.3495, one can lightly try short positions with a stop loss at 0.3568 and a target of 0.3215. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 0.3538, reverse to go long with a stop loss at 0.3382 and a target of 0.3712. Position size should be controlled within 5% of total capital, and exit decisively if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$KAITO#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 $KAITO Before the blood-red dawn, first survive
On the 4-hour and 6-hour charts, the rebounds of $BTC and $ETH seem to have had their bones pulled out, with bulls unable to mount any decent resistance. The KDJ indicator has deeply fallen into the oversold zone, but trading volume remains sluggish — this is not a spring-loaded buildup, but more like the market coldly waiting for the next round of reshuffling.
The real risk lies in the capital side. The ETH long-short ratio has surged to 1.89, and BTC is approaching 1.3. Retail bulls keep buying more as prices fall, as if shouting "bottom fishing." However, funding rates hover near zero, and open interest is low, indicating that major players have not entered to support the price. When retail investors collectively stubbornly hold on, the script for cleaning out high leverage often is just beginning. The so-called "blood-red dawn" may first come as a sharp kill targeting bullish faith.
Strategically, there is no need to guess the bottom, nor to hold heavy positions. Referring to the 6-hour and 4-hour supports, one can lightly and gradually test the waters, but the lifeline must be kept below the 6-hour support. If support holds, there is a chance to counterattack; once it breaks effectively, exit immediately without lingering, adding positions, or acting out of frustration. At this stage, defense is more important than offense, and survival is more important than chasing rebounds. Wait for the market to give a stabilization signal before talking about dawn.
The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Last Friday, Bitcoin briefly returned above $87,000, reaching a high of $87,200, the first time in about 10 days. But the rally was short-lived, plunging thousands of dollars within hours and falling below $84,000 in the evening, with nearly $600 million liquidated across the entire market contracts.
Why didn't $84,000 get broken? On the surface, after bouncing from $75,000 to $87,000 and getting stuck, Monday's low dropped to $82,570, and Tuesday recovered back to $84,000. Some say it's weak, but it held the $82,600 lifeline; others say it's strong, as it failed to break $87,500 three times. On-chain, exchanges saw a weekly net outflow of 31,800 BTC, and spot liquidity is tightening, which forms support below.
The core range is clear: the supply zone above is $84,500-$85,000, and only after holding above $85,000 can we talk about the second phase; the structural lifeline below is $82,600-$82,800, and only a break below that is considered a deep retracement. Currently, the price is stuck in the middle, with bulls and bears both waiting for a volume confirmation. The fear and greed index dropped from 74 to 68, the market is still in the greed zone, but the heat is cooling down. #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制# This opens a compliant channel for institutional funds to directly hold Ethereum, with clear medium- to long-term benefits, but the short-term market has not responded positively. I tend to lean bearish with sideways movement.
Funds and sentiment are clearly bearish: current price 2679.48, down 0.8% in 24h, trading volume 13.982 million, volume is weak. The buy-sell ratio in the top 10 order book levels is only 0.08, selling pressure is almost overwhelming; funding rate is 0.0014% positive, but open interest of 598,000 coin-margined contracts shows no obvious increase, indicating insufficient willingness from bulls to take over. 1-hour distance from high is -2.69%, 4-hour distance from high is -3.43%, rebound momentum is weakening, 2646.9 is a key short-term support, 2703 forms resistance above.
Strategy: lightly short near 2698.5 on rebound, stop loss at 2712.3, target 2652.6; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 2649.8, consider a short-term long, stop loss 2636.5, target 2688.2. Keep single position size within 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$ETH#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $ETH Maji Ge's positions are more thrilling than a TV drama
Maji Ge has added to his positions again.
A 25x $ETH long position with an unrealized loss of 250,000, a 10x $HYPE long position with an unrealized loss of 280,000, total profit and loss at -28.14 million, and another 2.48 million lost in 24 hours. For an ordinary person, these numbers would be enough to jump off a building three times. But Maji Ge remains calm, not only calm but still adding to his positions.
This is the confidence of "infinite bullets."
We hold positions while counting down to liquidation; he holds positions like a serialized drama update. Every episode is "I lost again," and every episode ends with "but I added more." You watch in horror, but he acts as if it's nothing.
Maji Ge is a top influencer on the OKX planet, with his address watched by countless people. But looking at his positions, the greatest value is not to copy his trades but to use him as a thermometer—his severe losses indicate the market is shaking out the bulls; his continued holding means big money hasn't retreated. He is a weather vane, not a trading guide.
The difference between ordinary people and whales is: whales lose unrealized gains, we lose principal; whales holding positions is called "faith," we holding positions is called "liquidation." His cash flow is strong enough to infinitely top up margin, while you top up once and have to eat instant noodles for a month.
So don't copy Maji Ge's trades, just learn from his mindset—don't panic when losing, because panicking won't help. As for copying trades? He loses his own money, you lose your whole family's money.
Maji Ge's positions are a mirror reflecting the caprice of capital and the limitations of retail investors. Watching the show is fine, but getting involved is not.#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制# This has raised compliance expectations for mid- and small-cap coins like SLX, but I judge the short-term weakness is unlikely to change, with risk control prioritized. 4-hour downtrend, 1-hour rebound, current price 0.06255, down 3.4%, volume only 2.127 million, funding rate 0.0050% slightly neutral, open interest 28.079 million coins, buy orders 8657 vs sell orders 4962 dominant, but resistance at 0.06505 is obvious, key support at 0.06164. Strategy: lightly test long positions on a pullback to 0.06185, stop loss at 0.06032, target 0.06475; exit if volume breaks support, position no more than 20%, strict stop loss, no adding positions.
——Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$SLX#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $SLX Watching the market obsessively is annoying; turning it off actually made things clearer, and without staring, my mind is calm. I glanced at it before bed last night, $XDP faced obvious resistance above, strong sell orders, but very low trading volume, no one was buying up; at that moment, it signaled a good shorting opportunity.
Shorted from 0.02241 to 0.02120, a +107.98% gain, feeling good.
Better to miss a daily limit up than to catch a falling knife and end up with a bloody hand. The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich quick often leads to zero.
First take profit on 80%, protect the remaining 20% at cost, let the profit run if it continues to drop, and don’t give back profits on a rebound. If you haven’t entered yet, don’t chase now; this is not the time to rush. Wait for the next move, I will notify immediately.
$SOL $SNDK Weekend Market Overview: Recovery and Pullback Coexist
Happy weekend, meow. The market is a bit "each on their own": some are quietly recovering, while others started pulling back since the afternoon, and ETF funds have cooled down first.
$AAVE was around 177.6 at noon, touched 181.5 by evening, just shy of last night's 182. The 24-hour change is still negative, but that doesn't mean it has been weakening all the way. The key points to watch are: whether it can reclaim last night's position, and whether it can hold this rebound during the pullback. If it just goes up and then falls back, it's still range-bound recovery; if it holds steady, the strength is worth a higher rating.
$WLD was 0.571 in the afternoon, retreating to 0.563 by evening. Although it still rose about 4% over 24 hours, it did pull back in the afternoon. Don't be fooled by the positive gain; first see if it can regain the afternoon level; if it can't, don't expect the rebound to go too far.
$ETH is still around 2685, almost flat for the week, with a fuzzy short-term direction. I won't wait for a catch-up just because it rose little. Even if it returns to 2700, we need to see if it can continue upward; a rebound of a dozen dollars won't change the trend judgment.
Additionally, BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously turning to outflows, cooling fund enthusiasm. At this time, it's more important to respect price signals: confirm recovery, be cautious of pullbacks, and don't let expectations run ahead of the market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Nonfarm payrolls give a boost, ETFs pull back first: the rebound's value remains to be tested
With the nonfarm payrolls released and rate hike pressure easing temporarily, BTC once surged near 87000 but failed to hold. More importantly, during the price rebound, ETF funds were withdrawing: BTC had a net inflow of about $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days but saw net outflows for two consecutive days starting September 30; ETH ETFs also experienced outflows for three consecutive days. Price rising while funds flow out indicates insufficient willingness to chase highs, and the market begins to reassess risks after the positive news is priced in.
The current contradiction remains unresolved: weakening employment lowers rate hike expectations, but US Treasury yields remain high, and liquidity pressure has not disappeared. In the short term, watch BTC: 87000 is both a breakout and resistance level; 84500-85000 is the support zone. Risk assets like ETH and ZEC are cooling down simultaneously; whether they can recover depends on fund inflows.
Before confirmation, do not chase the rise or hold stubbornly. The next direction is more reliably indicated by fund flows than sentiment. The above is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 NVIDIA's stock price hits a new all-time high, with market value approaching $6 trillion, risk appetite spills over but does not benefit crypto, BTC currently at 84827.6. I judge that funds are being withdrawn from the US stock market, with a short-term bias toward consolidation.
A slight 0.6% drop in 24 hours, high at 85477.5, low at 83826.4, trading volume only 4.353 million. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but a pullback of more than 2% from the high indicates real selling pressure above; the top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 3.73, buyers dominate, funding rate at 0.0034% is neutral, and open interest at 29,000 shows longs are not overly crowded.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 83910, stop loss at 83240, target 85680; if it rises to around 85735 and faces resistance, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 86420, target 84280. Single position size should not exceed 5%, market moves quickly, always use stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BTC#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $BTC Nvidia's market value is approaching 6 trillion, and the computing power narrative is spilling over to AI sector tokens, with WLD as the leader directly benefiting. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but caution against chasing highs. On the capital side, the current price is 0.5974, up 3.9% in 24h, with a turnover of 476 million. Bullish sentiment remains, but the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.71, indicating significantly heavier selling pressure. The funding rate is only 0.01%, with open interest at 76.834 million, showing that leveraged longs are not overheated, while shorts are tentatively adding positions. The four-hour chart is strong, only -0.96% from the high; the one-hour chart is 23.58% above the low, indicating a shallow pullback. Resistance above is at 0.6188, and key support below is at 0.5264. Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.5825, stop loss at 0.5645, target 0.6285; if volume breaks through 0.6188, chase longs to 0.6475, stop loss at 0.6015. Keep position size within 5%, exit on break without holding losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$WLD#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $WLD First slaughter the shorts, then grind the longs.
Fortunately, it didn't open every day with a big bearish candle, directly causing people to collapse.
Looking at it this way, $ZEC is quite considerate to the bulls. When it rises, it lets you enjoy it fully; when it falls, it takes its time, giving you plenty of time to escape. $ZEC $BTC $ETH Did you think a surge in funding rates meant the market was about to explode? I almost believed it yesterday. But then $SAND taught me a lesson. It went through a full short squeeze yesterday, dragging on for most of the day, and the funding fee was pushed to a four-hour settlement and was ridiculously tough. At that moment, I stared at the market, my finger hovering over the open position button, but I didn't press it in the end. It's not that I'm not tempted, but I know that once I get involved, I'm most likely just carrying someone else's sedan chair. Now the rate has dropped a bit, but it's not comfortable yet. I choose to keep watching, waiting for an opportunity I recognize, not for an opportunity I imagine. There's a big difference between these and the difference. Looking at it from another angle, what's truly worth remembering isn't how long a coin has been pulling up, but the change in the temperament of funds during the volatility phase. In a short squeeze, a price rising doesn't mean buying is really strong; often, it's just bears being forced to close their positions and push the market forward. When this momentum is exhausted, drawdowns often happen faster than anyone expected. So now I care more about rhythm than direction. $CAP is a typical example. It's quite good at playing, but unfortunately it's suppressed by market sentiment and can't be pulled up. Yesterday I tried to get in a little, almost didn't get out, got hit a bit. At times like this, I make a note: it's not that the stock was bad, but that I entered the market at the most emotional level. If it rallies later, I consider shorting instead of continuing to fantasize about it rising on its own. As for $ZEC, I've been worn down for a month. It's not pulling now, and I don't expect it to suddenly show kindness. I only care about one thing: when will it fall below 1,000, so I can close this position. This thoughtSOL suddenly surged today, jumping from around $120 to $123 within an hour, rising about 2.6% in a short time, while approximately $7.7 million worth of SOL short positions were liquidated in the market. Pluang
① This surge is not just about shorts being squeezed
Circle minted about 750 million USDC on Solana in the past 24 hours, with a single transaction of 250 million USDC. Pluang
USDC minting does not mean all that money is immediately used to buy SOL, but it at least indicates that stablecoin liquidity on the Solana chain is continuing to expand.
For a blockchain, this kind of "available capital" is more tangible than just looking at TPS.
② What I want to see now is whether SOL can retain this liquidity
If later DEX trading, perpetual contracts, Meme, and on-chain lending all pick up, then the 750 million USDC won't just be a ledger increase but will turn into real trading demand.
If stablecoins come in but on-chain activity doesn't keep up, then this news won't support SOL's price for very long.
③ If I open a position, I won't chase longs
There was already a surge today, and some shorts were liquidated.
I prefer to wait for a pullback to see if the 120–121 range can hold.
If it holds and on-chain volume continues to grow, I will remain bullish.
If it quickly falls back below 118, then today's move looks more like a short-term short squeeze.
My current view on $SOL is simple:
Short-term focus on price, mid-term focus on whether USDC really turns into trading volume on Solana.
Money entering the chain is just the first step; money staying and being used is what makes the market more sustainable. Liquidity is returning, and narratives are beginning to stratify
Citigroup updated its crypto coordinates, raising the $BTC twelve-month target to $113,000 and ETH to $3,028, significantly up from the previous $82,000 and $2,240. The reasons are straightforward: increased trading activity, eased macro pressure, renewed net inflows into ETFs, and an expected return of about $5 billion in funds within a year.
However, if the funds truly return, it won't necessarily be a universal boom; more likely, the narrative will spread layer by layer. $BTC remains anchored to liquidity and risk appetite, while ETH carries the smart contract ecosystem. At the altcoin level, I am watching DOGE and FIL: DOGE relies on global community consensus, payment potential, and Meme-driven viral growth, showing strong explosive power but is highly sentiment-dependent; FIL bets on decentralized storage, AI data infrastructure, on-chain data, and long-term storage computing power, leaning towards infrastructure.
One is a community asset, the other a data asset. After major capital inflows, the focus is not on "what to buy" but on observing how funds switch between these two narrative types. Target prices are institutional forecasts, not promises; altcoin volatility far exceeds BTC, so position sizing and risk control always come before returns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 This market is wild and wild—no patience. It's customary for small nonfarm farms to open small doors, big nonfarms to open big ones, but this time the door was just too exaggerated. Last night, I stayed up with Mao to build models until 2 a.m., worked hard until 5 a.m., farmed red fruits until 8 p.m., and woke up just past 5 p.m. This terrible weekend market—whether you get up early or late, it's basically the same. Just waiting to see how things move after 10.4. In 2024, the wave pulled back from 9.27 to 10.4—let's see if history repeats itself. $BTC $ETH If you want to talk about the positives, the tops and bottoms are indeed rising. But the reality is, with liquidity sweeping back and forth, there's less and less money left in the market. If the market wants to get better, it needs a "foolish money effect"—even with closed trading, you can make money to attract outside funds. Previously, US stocks were like this—you could make money by mindlessly buying long stocks, and money would pour in like a flood. Now, the crypto market is like raising poison, with only smart people and veterans able to profit from the fire. Newbies are just giving away their heads, lacking the ability to create wealth and the effect of foolish money, so it's inevitable that it's hard to play. The drier the liquidity, the more extreme the market, and making money will only get harder. Essentially, this is a filter—in the end, all that remains are the 'Gu Kings.' #美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. #BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling off capital enthusiasm. #美伊局势持续紧张, the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of reserves This is also why BTC still declined steadily last night despite the apparent positive "weak non-farm payrolls" data.
The market is no longer satisfied with "possibly fewer rate hikes in the future."
What everyone really wants to see is: when money will actually become cheaper.
As long as the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields remain high, the valuations of BTC and US stocks will continue to be weighed down.
The most critical issue now is not whether the Fed will hike rates one more time, but when long-term interest rates will truly turn around.It's only early October, and this so-called "National Day red envelope rally" lasted just one day. From 82,800 it surged straight to 87,300. I originally planned to go long at 82,000 and short near 88,000, but neither price point was reached, so I could only watch helplessly.
All the price points were operated half a step ahead; the direction was right, but the numbers were all wrong, with errors ranging from 800 to 1,000 points. You can imagine how frustrating that is.
What’s even more alarming is the structure: as time passes, this nearly three-month-long rally is basically nearing its end. Even the leading assets in the market have started to collapse, which are typical signs of a market top. Historically, every sustained rally ends with a decisive crash.
So what I’m more curious about is: in what form and when will a daily drop of tens of thousands occur? At this stage, I’m not chasing longs; risk management comes first. $BTC$ZEC is currently hovering around $1333.
Reading this, that voice in your head might have started again:
"It dropped from 1698 to 1333, a 21% retracement already, is it time to buy the dip?"
Hold on, answer these 4 questions before deciding.
First, when will ETF funds flow back in?
On September 30, ZCSH saw a net outflow of about $30.25 million, and on October 2, another outflow of about $26.93 million. With continuous fund withdrawals, the short-term buying strength naturally comes into question.
If ETFs keep flowing out, what will the market rely on to absorb the selling pressure above?
Second, will the hacker funds issue continue to ferment?
Currently, about $3.9 million of stolen funds have been transferred through ZEC's privacy pool. The bigger question is whether the remaining funds will continue to enter the privacy pool.
Once these funds keep associating with ZEC's privacy ecosystem, market attention on its compliance narrative may further increase.
Third, what do 1233 and 1410 mean respectively?
Two key levels currently watched by the market:
📉 $1233: Key structural support
If the daily chart breaks below and closes under this level effectively, downward pressure may increase further.
📈 Around $1410: Rebound confirmation zone What I'm more concerned about for next week is whether Micron can take over the baton, and how Google's new model really performs. I can't understand why Google's release of the best model hasn't caused a price increase. After thinking it over, maybe it's because ordinary people can't use it, or perhaps it's controversial $GOOGL $MU $NVDA SAND has surged more than 30% in the past 24 hours, printing a strong bullish candle while trading volume expands sharply. Short-term momentum and market sentiment have shifted quickly.
Looking at the whale positioning:
🐋 Longs: 139 positions, average entry around $0.06565, with 83.45% currently profitable. That means many positions are sitting on significant unrealized gains, which could create some profit-taking pressure.
#DailyOrbit Why do retail investors always lose money?
In short, it's four words: holding the wrong way.
They panic and quickly take profits when a trade is slightly in the green;
But for losing trades, they keep adding more, always thinking they can break even.
This is not high sell low buy at all; it's clearly cutting off the profitable shoots and digging the losing pits even deeper.
The root cause is not in the technique, but in the mindset.
Can you let profits run a little longer? Can you cut losses decisively?
Most people can't get past this, so their accounts keep spinning in place. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
The G7 says it will release 100 million barrels, but the previous round of 75 million barrels has not yet been delivered to the market.
▪️ The International Energy Agency promised 400 million barrels in March, with about 325 million barrels delivered to the market by October 1, leaving a balance of about 75 million barrels.
▪️ The official wording for this 100 million barrels is "considering the commitments already fulfilled," without distinguishing between new releases and old commitments.
▪️ Delivery progress is uneven: Germany has about 77% yet to release, while Spain has only released about one-third.
▪️ On the day of the announcement, European diesel futures once dropped more than 8%, while Brent crude closed almost unchanged.
The disagreement is not about whether 100 million barrels is enough, but how much of this 100 million barrels is newly released this time.
The statement first says it will supervise the full fulfillment of the March commitments, then announces the release of 100 million barrels — the first part is urging action, the second part may be new measures.
The market reads it this way too: diesel fell the most sharply, not crude oil. The European diesel premium over crude dropped from 76.77 to 69.
Oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have nearly returned to pre-war levels; the bottleneck is refined products. This time, the G7 even adjusted the maintenance schedules of member countries' refineries, requesting to avoid concentrated shutdowns.
Is this 100 million barrels new inventory, or just a re-announcement of old commitments?Conclusion first: $SAND is up 74% in 24h, but I won't chase this 4H candle at noon today — volume shrank by 46% compared to the morning, falling about 3.7% from the 0.08228 high, short-term correction is not over yet.
Data speaks:
• Today's open (UTC+8) was 0.062, the 4H candle at 08:00 exploded to 72.8 million tokens traded (≈$470M), price moved from 0.068 to 0.08228, 4-8 times the average volume of previous candles. A typical volume surge rally.$BTC $ETH $ZEC are still adjusting,
market sentiment is weakening.
A few altcoins are pulling hard,
short-selling thoughts are starting to appear,
but positions are already held,
not wanting to operate on multiple fronts.
First wait for the positions in hand to take profit,
then consider shorting those altcoins that have surged at the right time.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #NvidiaRecordHigh $PUMP and all launchpads like PONS, as well as Mo Yin Coin compared to the September peak, are all plummeting. The vast majority that were launched have no trading activity. The coin price is likely to go down, Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth also slowed down.
Logically, this should be positive for risk assets—expectations for rate hikes cooled, and market liquidity expectations improved. But the result was a large liquidation of long positions.
Why?
First, buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Before the data release, the market had already priced in weaker nonfarm payrolls and a decline in October rate hike expectations, with BTC having already risen from around 84,000 to 87,000. When the positive news actually arrived, it became an opportunity for bulls to take profits.
Second, the data was too poor, triggering concerns about a recession.
New job additions were significantly below expectations, previous figures were revised down, and the unemployment rate continued to rise. The market’s focus shifted from just "no rate hike" to worrying whether the economy is clearly cooling. With risk appetite declining, both stocks and crypto assets may come under pressure.
Third, long leverage was too crowded.
The market first spiked up, wiping out some shorts, then quickly reversed downward, triggering long stop losses and forced liquidations, creating a chain reaction of liquidations.
Therefore, even though the nonfarm data was somewhat positive, it doesn’t necessarily mean bulls made money.
What the market is really trading is the difference in expectations, capital flows, and position structure, not simply whether the data is good or bad.
Currently, BTC has returned to around 85,000, with the 87,000 area still an important resistance, and the 84,000 area needing close observation for support.
No rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first watch if liquidation pressure eases and if the price can stabilize in key support zones. Control position size and wait for confirmation signals.
$BTC $ETHHonestly, after $PONS dropped to just above 0.4, I’ve kind of gone numb.
At 0.6, I thought it had fallen too much; at 0.5, I thought it was about right, but it kept crashing further.
But today I suddenly realized, what I’m most worried about now isn’t it dropping another 10%.
It’s that everyone stops playing.
Why was PONS so explosive before?
It’s actually easy to understand.
When Robinhood Chain first took off, a bunch of people rushed over to launch tokens and issue coins; Pons was basically the busiest place during that time.
At its peak in early September, nearly 25,000 new tokens were issued from Pons in a single day, with daily fees close to 6 million USD.
Money, people, and attention all crowded in there, so naturally, PONS was in demand.
In the past 7 days, Pons’ fees have dropped to about 10.5 million USD total, averaging roughly 1.5 million per day. Compared to the peak of nearly 6 million per day, the hype has definitely cooled off a lot.
So now, I actually don’t want to keep guessing whether 0.4 is the bottom every day.
For something like a Meme Launchpad, price drops aren’t that scary.
As long as there are still people making money, losing money, issuing new tokens, and rushing in at midnight to catch the dip, there’s still another story to tell.
What’s truly scary is opening Robinhood Chain one day and finding that everyone’s too lazy to even talk about Pons anymore. The narrative around banks now seems less appealing.
At today's $XRP-related conference in Seoul, the four major financial institutions in South Korea all attended to discuss using RLUSD for cross-border payments and tokenized government bond settlements, but the market price barely reacted.
$SOL is in a similar situation. The bank stablecoin Roughrider Coin has launched on Solana, with over 90 banks and credit unions in North Dakota connected for interbank settlements, yet the SOL price still hovers around $120.
The key point is that these two projects' integration with traditional financial institutions is not just a concept.
Here in South Korea, Kbank is already exploring blockchain cross-border payments and researching the use of Ripple infrastructure to advance tokenized government bond settlements; Solana is also gradually entering the traditional banking payment system.
So now, the bank narrative looks more like a "slow variable."
It can enhance the market's expectations for the project's long-term fundamentals and may provide some bottom support, but relying on bank cooperation to directly drive a short-term price surge is still quite difficult.
What really determines short-term spikes are market sentiment, capital flows, and the overall market environment.
Having fundamentals ≠ immediate price pump.
This might be the most realistic aspect of the bank narrative right now.The facade is still having glass installed upward, and the pile foundation settlement monitor is already alarming — this is my only judgment on $YGG at this moment.
First, look at this "construction record": a 24-hour increase of 6.31%. In architectural design, adding a floor to a building in a single day is not called growth; it’s called an uncalculated structural addition. It doesn’t add new load-bearing walls nor recalculates reinforcement ratios; it just stacks load on the existing frame. The first reaction to this stacking is stress concentration at the top.
Where is the stress concentrated? The short-term RSI has already given the answer: 74.3. This is not "high"; it means the parapet wall has been pushed beyond its design limit. Anyone who has worked on high-rises knows that overbuying is like concrete strength reaching a critical point—imperceptible to the naked eye, but cracks are already spreading internally. Meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 38.6, in the neutral zone — meaning the foundation is not yet damaged but hasn’t reached design strength either; the whole building is in a "top overloaded, bottom unconsolidated" misaligned state.
Next, look at the Bollinger Bands baseline. The short-term price is at 102% of the upper band, only -0.1% from the upper band, but +7.3% from the lower band. Translated into engineering terms: the building is already pressed against the top cover, and the buffer zone below has been depleted by more than 70%. True structural safety never relies on "just standing" but on "having margin." The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 71%, +3.1% from the upper band and +8.5% from the lower band, indicating some elasticity in the middle layer, but the short term is already at the top.
A misaligned structure like this has only one way to handle it: wait for it to rebound to the reserved elevation, then remove the overloaded parts.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.02 (current price +3.8%)
Take Profit 1: $0.02 (-10.4%)
Take Profit 2: $0.02 (-7.8%)
Stop Loss: $0.02 (+16.2%)
Why place the entry point 3.8% above the current price? Because entering directly in an overbought state is like cutting into a structure before the formwork is removed; the structure is still under stress, and you can’t accurately measure the real deflection. Waiting for the price to expand another 3.8% upward to the preset construction level is the point of highest load concentration and the most solid short position pivot. Take Profit 1 is set at -10.4%, Take Profit 2 at -7.8%, because the short-term only has +7.3% margin from the lower band; once the price pulls back, it will first seek that lower band rather than falling deeper — the logic for the first target is "return to the lower band," not "collapse." The second target is shallower, reserved as a buffer for structural repetition, first realizing the main load-bearing section, then deciding whether to continue downward.
As for the +16.2% stop loss line, it corresponds not to price but to the red line of the overload test. If the short-term RSI continues upward from 74.3, volume must increase simultaneously — that would be equivalent to continuing to transport bricks to the top without changing the original reinforcement; at that moment, I admit I’m wrong and exit.
I have been designing for thirty years; the most expensive lesson is never drawing the wrong plan but celebrating topping out prematurely on a site without final acceptance.
The current problem with $YGG is not whether it’s worth building, but that this round has only completed the curtain wall skeleton; the main structure hasn’t been closed yet, but someone has already started selling model units.
Drawings can be beautiful, but the engineering must hold up.I took a quick look at the market before bed; besides the positions I still hold, I don't plan to make any other moves tonight.
The biggest change in $BTC these past two days isn't how much it has risen, but that after falling, it can slowly recover.
A few days ago, the market was quite pessimistic around 83,000; now that it's moving back up, sentiment quickly returns. I think the easiest mistake here is to start fearing missing out as soon as it rises.
As long as BTC holds the key levels, the bias remains bullish. If it really accelerates the breakout, then I'll look at $ETH and $SOL to see if there's a chance for a catch-up rally. As for the small coins that suddenly surged a lot, I basically won't chase them tonight.
Most people think the bull market is over when prices fall,
and after two green candles, they start planning when to retire.
Tonight, my move might be the hardest:
Turn off the market, go to sleep.
After all, checking the K-line less once at midnight might mean avoiding opening a random contract trade.$BTC is currently fluctuating around 84,000, with the previous high near 87,000 facing resistance after a surge, and short-term bullish momentum has clearly weakened. Although yesterday's non-farm payroll data was weak, BTC still pulled back after the surge, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant.
During the National Day holiday, market liquidity was relatively weak, making short-term swings more likely. The key focus remains on support around 82,000; if this support breaks, the adjustment space may further open up. My current view is still bearish, but I will not blindly chase shorts.
$ETH's movement basically follows BTC, currently fluctuating near 2,680. Compared to BTC, its short-term performance is slightly stronger, but the overall structure has not completely escaped the consolidation phase.
As for whether this rally can retest 120,000, I am not overly optimistic for now. Market funds are being diverted to new investment directions such as stocks and tokenized assets, and it remains to be seen whether incremental liquidity will return to the crypto market.
$HYPE is relatively stronger, with short-term fundamentals still supported. However, its core issues remain the circulating supply and subsequent unlocking pressure. If new supply continues to be released and buyback and burn cannot fully offset it, valuation pressure may gradually emerge.
Additionally, in September, the US non-farm payroll added only 29,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, significantly weaker than previous expectations; this will affect market judgments on the Fed's future policy path, but weak employment data does not necessarily mean BTC will continue to rise.