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Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
Wow, this afternoon's wave is really intense.
International oil prices suddenly surged straight up, Brent crude directly surpassed $100, rising over 2%.
Gold and silver plunged sharply in the short term, BTC also dropped from 84,000 back to 83,300, with 80,000 people liquidated across the entire market in the past 24 hours.
Brothers, what the heck is going on?
Oil price rise = inflation expectations are back,
The Federal Reserve dares even less to cut interest rates.
The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.3%,
Risk assets are all being ground down.
I think in the short term BTC will continue to be suppressed by macro factors, grinding in the 82,000-84,000 range.
Don't chase longs, wait for this wave of oil price sentiment to be digested.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $XAU 以前很多币靠“未来画饼”就能涨，现在资金更务实，开始给“真赚钱的项目”重新定价。$PUMP $BTC $ETH 玩法变了：平台先实打实赚到钱，再拿赚来的钱回购销毁，直接压低代币流通量。 AAVE 那边还在讨论要不要搞销毁，PUMP 已经真金白银干起来了。 如果这套逻辑被市场持续认可，接下来被重估的，大概率是那些有真实收入、又愿意把钱回流给代币的项目。 但回购不是万能药，关键盯三点：收入能不能持续，回购是不是真在减流通，以及解锁抛压会不会把回购效果吃掉。 这种行情，比起追高，更适合盯紧回购数据和链上动向。#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC ETH ZEC
Brothers, last night the dog dealer's tactics were really ruthless😓
After the PCE data was released, BTC violently surged from 82900 to 85600, first blasting short positions, then quickly dumping back down to around 83500.
A typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact market.
A long upper shadow candle, with bulls and bears taking turns harvesting.
In such a violent shakeout, chasing orders means getting hit; without pre-positioning, it's hard to make a profit.
Currently, the market continues to grind and oscillate around 83500,
with short-term support at 82900 and resistance at 85600.
Tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls are the real main event; big volatility will most likely be reserved for then.
In this back-and-forth pinning market, were you swept out last night? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 HYPE touched a high of about 91.9 today and then returned to about 88.8, so I won't chase it for now.
Soft PCE pushed BTC down to about 85,500, long bonds hardened and then retreated to about 83,400; in the same window, HYPE actually led the gains with about +3.2%, and its trading volume remained among the top.
I see two concurrent things: Labs unlocked about 3.75 million tokens, saying they will distribute them OTC to the team on October 7 without entering the market; the day before, the spot HYPE ETF recorded a net outflow of about 5.03 million USD.
I think the short-term is a battle between sentiment and supply expectations, not a one-sided bullish signal, and don't take the OTC statement as set in stone.
What to do: just observe and don't catch a falling knife; if it fails, watch for a break below the intraday low of about 84.6, or if it breaks above 91.9, chase the rally.
Do you trust OTC can suppress selling pressure more, or are you more afraid of sentiment crashing the market around October 7?
$HYPE $BTC $SOL
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsBecomeNextKey #USTreasuryYieldsKeepHittingNewHighs,LongTermRatePressureNotEasedAfter the PCE data was released, the market quickly rallied on positive news, with BTC briefly surging to around $86,200, with short stop-losses and rally chasing funds entering simultaneously; then the price suddenly reversed, quickly testing back to $83,700, and long positions were continuously cleared. Now, short-term risks have clearly resurfaced: 📉 BTC fell back to around 📉 $83,700, SOL fell below $📉 119, ZEC and SUI also experienced a clear correction 💰. SOL-related ETFs have recently accumulated net inflows of about $190 million. Liquidity is actually not bad, but prices remain under pressure. The problem is that a single positive factor is currently hard to offset macro pressure. US Treasury yields remain high, and the market remains sensitive to future interest rate paths; At the same time, recent security incidents on trading platforms have further amplified the risk aversion sentiment of funds. For large funds, before the macro direction is truly clear, reducing leverage and position size is often more important than chasing short-term positive news. Next are potential catalysts like the FOMC, employment data, and Mt. Gox-related maturities, which may further amplify volatility. So now I lean more to: don't catch flying knives, don't rush to bottom-fish, don't go heavy just because of a good news. The most dangerous times in the market are often not when there's no news, but when everyone starts believing "good news will definitely rise." First, manage your principal and positions well. Surviving is more important than seizing every market rally.#UK Opens Crypto Company License Applications
Only one license is issued for every six applications, and this window is open for just five months.
▪️ The window is open from September 30 to February 28, 2027, a total of 151 days; however, the regulation only takes effect on October 25, 2027
▪️ The previous registration round received 412 applications, with 68 finally registered; among them, 263 applicants withdrew themselves
▪️ This round, the FCA estimates about 325 in scope, with 250 to 400 ultimately authorized, about half opting for transitional arrangements
▪️ The cost differs among three paths: applying within the window allows continued operation, late applications can only fulfill existing contracts, and no application means closing UK operations before the regulation takes effect
The disagreement isn’t about how wide the window is, but whether the one you currently use will remain — getting authorized doesn’t guarantee a safety net, as the FCA does not plan to extend the Financial Services Compensation Scheme to crypto.
About 8% of UK adults hold crypto, with 73% using centralized exchanges. A leading platform holds three UK licenses, none of which automatically convert to permanent status.
If it doesn’t apply, you switch to another, or switch to managing your own private keys?$LTC At lunch, the guy at the next table was scrolling on his phone, sighing as he said, "If I had bought Litecoin with 10,000 yuan back then, I could have retired by now."
I almost couldn't hold back.
I've heard this sentence about eighty to a hundred times over the past few years. Said it in 2019, said it in 2021, and still saying it today. Everyone knows Litecoin is old, so old that it has become an obsession in the community. But those holding onto it have seen wave after wave pass by.
Current price is 67 yuan, barely moved this week, with trading volume less than 60% of usual.
To put it bluntly, this thing is now just a faith-based pocket change. People talk about halving every day, but after shouting it out, it just keeps sideways.
But I won't pretend. I always keep a little Litecoin in my wallet, not much, purely because I'm too lazy to sell. Switching positions is too much trouble, and I'm also afraid that if I do, it might actually move.
Someone just asked in the group if it's a good time to get in now, and I said, first think about what you want from it. Expecting it to jump every day? Then you're in the wrong place. $LTC I haven't really traded much these days, mainly focusing on adjusting my rhythm and state. Recently, I switched back and forth between BTC, ETH, and ZEC, and after frequent in-and-out trading, my trading mindset was thrown off balance. When I was winning, I got carried away; when I was losing, I was quick to recover. In the end, I realized what really needed adjustment wasn't the market, but my trading rhythm. These past few days, I paused and reorganized my positions. BTC briefly climbed above $83,000 but failed to hold steady afterward, and the market returned to a high-volatility range. Currently, on the macro side, I still need to pay attention to US Treasury yields, PCE, and non-farm payroll data, so short-term volatility may still be large. So this time, I won't rush to chase gains or sell losses; I'll first regain my rhythm. Without further ado, let's look at my current position #BTC #ETH #ZEC #Crypto #Bitcoin #Trading🚨 Strategy’s Labelled Wallets Hold $40.28B in BTC
On-chain data shows that 97% of Strategy’s Bitcoin was identified back in May 2025, making it the first public identification of those holdings $BTC
Those labelled wallets now hold $40.28B of Bitcoin on-chain, according to the analysis
A further $15.5B is tagged in Fidelity Custody, the same data suggests
Together that is roughly 78% of Strategy’s $71.4B BTC today
Watch how the rest gets traced next 🐋
$ETH A new battlefield opens! Big Brother Maji heavily bets on ETH long positions, how should we view this move?
The latest position leaderboard is revealed, and market attention refocuses on Big Brother Maji:
This time, the focus has clearly shifted from BTC, showing a long ETH position worth $93.86 million, currently with an unrealized profit of 542,900 and a return rate of 14.5%.
Compared to the entire big list, the signals are even more interesting:
- At the top, two heavyweight whale short positions have appeared; the first holding exceeds $200 million with an unrealized loss of -75.3%, the second nearly $100 million also deeply underwater; this indicates a group of funds firmly expecting a pullback, which have been continuously worn down by the market;
- At the same time, multiple whales inside the market are simultaneously defending long positions; it’s not one-sided, but a typical intense confrontation between large funds;
- Maji’s position cost is 2675.6, current price is 2545.8; although the price has slightly retraced, the overall position still maintains positive returns and has not been disrupted by short-term spikes.Brothers, today $BTC dropped again.
Last night it even surged to 85639, but then it fell all the way back, now around 83400, with a volatility of over 2000 points. The bulls and bears are starting to fight again.
But let me say something contradictory first: although I currently hold short positions, I still remain bullish.
Why?
Because the September monthly candle has closed, and looking solely at the monthly structure, I don't see any signal that the bull market has ended yet.
As for the weekly structure, my view from a few days ago remains unchanged: as long as the 81500 level is not effectively broken downward, the longer $BTC consolidates, the more likely it is to suddenly surge later.
So this current pullback hasn't changed the big picture for me.
I even think this bull market can continue to churn for a while longer, possibly extending until December.
Of course, I am currently holding short positions, so if it really falls, I will definitely be happy.
But if you ask me about the mid-term outlook, I still say:
The bull market is not over yet.
As long as key supports hold, I remain bullish in October, and I don't rule out Bitcoin surging back to $100,000 later.
Short positions are for trading, views are views.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Leveraged Musical Chairs: When the music stops, whoever has no seat is out
October rate hike expectations have eased, tonight's PCE is key. The crypto world today is like leveraged musical chairs—don't ask about bulls or bears, just who loses their seat first.
BTC: Two cliffs
Below 80516, long positions pile up like a powder keg; breaking through triggers a chain liquidation, bulls collectively wiped out; above 88520, shorts cluster, breaking through sends them queueing for the sky. Price is caught in the middle, like walking a tightrope—one wrong move and it's curtains.
ETH: Six hundred million chips on each side
Dropping below 2562 means longs get wiped out; passing 2828 sends shorts to the incinerator. Leveraged markets are never about direction, but elimination order—who gets carried off first, who follows.
The script was written early
Liquidations, stampedes, outages, group chats flooded with "I'm wiped out." Exchange backends counting fees until their hands hurt.
Macro isn't idle either
Micron's earnings reveal AI storage as a focus; nonfarm payrolls and PCE alternate on the table. Risk appetite reshuffles, crypto never absent, but leverage waits for no one to buckle up.
Today's watchlist
BTC eyes 80516 and 88520 like a hawk, ETH eyes 2562 and 2828. Today isn't about watching the market, it's about who gets the box lunch first.
Purely for fun, don't get too serious—leveraged musical chairs, one wrong step, and it's game over.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Position is changing, price is not moving: BTC's stalemate and breakout point tonight
BTC is still tugging back and forth around $83,000, appearing calm on the surface but with undercurrents stirring beneath. What’s truly worth watching tonight isn’t the short-term ups and downs, but three unresolved questions.
1. Why is it still stuck at 83,000?
The price hasn’t left the range, indicating neither bulls nor bears have taken absolute control. The short-term support is at 82,500 below, and the first resistance is at 85,500 above. The market seems to be waiting for a real breakout, not random fluctuations.
2. Has the capital left or not?
Open interest in contracts remains near $26.5 billion, with a slight increase in the last 24 hours. Leveraged funds haven’t clearly withdrawn, but new positions haven’t pushed the price out of the consolidation zone either. Positions are accumulating, but the direction is undecided.
3. There’s plenty of trading, so why isn’t the price moving?
Futures trading volume is significantly higher than spot, yet BTC remains sideways. The market isn’t lacking trades; it’s lacking the force to shift the balance. High-frequency gaming has replaced trend driving, so the price naturally sticks within the range.
The core contradiction is simple: positions are changing, but the price hasn’t made a choice.
Tonight, focus on two levels: 85,500 above and 82,500 below. If the range continues to contract, the real directional choice may be getting closer. Coupled with the easing of October rate hike expectations and the arrival of PCE data, the window for a shift might be right ahead.
The longer the sideways, the sharper the breakout. Be patient for signals, don’t get caught up in noise.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Hackers stole over 12.4 million XRP from dcent wallets
The danger is not wallets with large balances, but those that signed early.
▪️ The patch version was released on November 5, 2025, and users were notified to migrate on September 16, 2026, a gap of ten months
▪️ The risk zone is not based on balance: addresses that only received funds have lower risk; only those that have signed (token authorizations, connected to online services) count
▪️ The order of wallets being swept seems more like sorted by creation date, not by balance — the attacker had a pre-prepared list
▪️ One mnemonic controls five chains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, Stellar all have people losing coins. The vendor has not disclosed amounts nor promised compensation
The disagreement is not about whether this wallet is safe, but whether you can judge if you are in the danger zone — the vendor refuses to disclose technical reasons, only saying disclosure would help imitators.
The patch was applied in November, and the announcement on the 10th of the same month only mentioned "can manage 100 wallets, can import from mainstream wallets," without a word about security. During these ten months, users had a wallet that would not alert them.
Which should come first, patching or notifying?10-year veteran crypto research center
$ONDO's recent trend is worth paying attention to
ONDO price is currently about $0.51.
In the past 30 days, ONDO has risen nearly 50%, but it has pulled back about 4% in the last 7 days.
The key point: the price is pulling back, but whales are still active.
Latest on-chain tracking data shows that in the past 30 days, whales have had a cumulative net inflow of about $36.14 million ONDO, and in the past 24 hours, whale trading volume has reached 4.5 times the 30-day average.
On September 29, there was a net outflow of about $2.84 million ONDO from exchanges.
This is not just about looking at the candlestick chart.
The RWA line has not disappeared recently; rather, during the price pullback, large funds are still slowly accumulating.
Entry: $0.495–$0.515
Take profit: $0.540 / $0.575 / $0.620 / $0.680 / $0.750
Stop loss: $0.465
If ONDO retakes $0.54, I will closely watch whether the subsequent funds continue to expand. "Me, $48, Liquidation Countdown (Season 3: Full Position Cremation)"
Family, my master has gone crazy. He really has.
Look at this chart, he finally shifted from ZEC to ETH and ZHIPU, but the operation is still the familiar formula:
ETH, 100x leverage, long position, entry price 2728.28, current price 2676.31.
How much loss? -190.47%. Margin 23.33, unrealized loss 45.31. My master is currently maintaining a margin ratio of 443.33%, sounds high, right? But the liquidation price is 2584.6, if ETH drops another 3.4%, he will be cremated on the spot.
ZHIPU, 10x leverage, long position, entry price 92.42, current price 81.49.
How much loss? -118.26%. Margin 37.4, unrealized loss 50.16. Liquidation price 63.78, about 22% room left. But the problem is, this coin is called ZHIPU (Zhipu?), my master doesn’t even know what it is, only knows “the name sounds very AI, chase it!”
I calculated the total account:
Total margin 60.73, total unrealized loss 95.47, realized loss 5.14. Net assets are already negative, all propped up by full position margin.
My master is now staring at the screen, muttering: “ETH will rebound, ZHIPU will double, as long as I don’t sell, it’s not a loss.”
I’m lying in the corner, looking at ETH’s candlestick, recalling how he shorted ZEC last night and earned 1.56.
He spent the whole night, from 1.56 to -95.47.
The fastest money-losing record holder in crypto, $48, two hours, from confidence to cremation.
I suggest he delete the app, so when he wakes up tomorrow, he can at least fool himself: that $60 wasn’t lost, it’s just temporarily held by the dog whales. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Brothers, what I care about now is no longer just the rise and fall of BTC or ETH, but the difference in capital flows between the two sides. The latest data shows that on September 29, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $66.2 million, maintaining net inflows for the ninth consecutive trading day; Meanwhile, ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $2.81 million, ending a seven-day streak of cumulative inflows of about $850 million. This does not mean the market has completely abandoned ETH; rather, it seems that institutional funds have shown a clear allocation gap between BTC and ETH at this stage. More interestingly, on September 30, BTC ETFs also saw a net outflow of about $149 million, while ETH ETFs saw a further outflow of about $59.6 million. So it is not yet time to simply conclude that funds have completed a long-term shift. 🔥 What is truly worth watching is the relative strength of funds in BTC/ETH. If in the coming weeks: ➡️ BTC continues to attract funds ➡️, ETH continues to see redemptions ➡️, ETH/BTC remains under pressure, then the market's preference for allocation between the two asset classes may become even more pronounced. But if ETH ETFs resume sustained net inflows, this divergence may just be a short-term rotation. So I won't rush to conclusions now; I'll first see if the flow can continue, then see if the price and ETH/BTC confirm in sync. The current signals from the market are more like: BTSideways trading, consolidation, and sharp drops: Which side should the funds take?
BTC has fallen back from 87,000, repeatedly tugging between 82,000 and 84,000. Spot buying acts like a buffer, supporting the sharp drop and also indicating that chips are changing hands rather than the trend surrendering. Use it as a base position; scaling back in batches is more composed than chasing the rise.
ETH is grinding near 2,650, with short-term resistance at 2,750–2,800. On-chain activity is not cold but lacks volume confirmation. Without volume, just wait; don’t replace signals with speculation.
ZEC dropped from 1,700 to 1,400 in two days, nearly a 20% loss, indicating that high-volatility assets are only suitable for small positions to test; heavy positions mean handing over control to emotions.
The macro headwinds have not dissipated; interest rates and capital flows still suppress risk appetite, and the three cannot thrive independently. At this time, chasing highs has low cost-effectiveness; position management takes priority over directional judgment. BTC as ballast, ETH waiting for volume, ZEC limiting risk; don’t fall in love with assets if you want to stay at the table.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
But on September 29, 2026, in Washington, two AI-related events actually happened simultaneously:
In the morning at Mellon Auditorium—America.gov was launched. Trump signed an executive order requiring all agencies to connect their external services to this "unified front door"; Oz demonstrated using AI to handle Medicare on site, Rubio demonstrated online passport processing. On the surface, it was "the government finally becoming a bit more user-friendly," but fundamentally it was about funneling citizen identity, healthcare, social security, and tax flows into the same conversational entry point, with privacy debts deferred.
In the afternoon at the White House—tech giants gathered for dinner: Musk, Jensen Huang, Zuckerberg, Pichai, Nadella, Dario Amodei all present. Trump renamed AI "Super Intelligence," and launched his own narrative in the style of the "White House Accord on Super Intelligence": whoever wins super intelligence wins the century. Regulation? He said, "It can't slow down the U.S."
So the most surreal part of this is: on one hand, using consumer-grade design to turn the government into a "chat-capable app," and on the other, using geopolitical rhetoric to turn AI into a "new arms race." Gebbia solves the problem of "ugly forms and poor entry points"; the White House solves "who owns the models and who holds the power." #Биткоин : why a strong surge is not yet a reason to buy.
$BTC - after such a surge, do you want to jump on the last train? 👀 On the four-hour chart, the rise was accompanied by a volume spike, and now the price is fluctuating below the peak. The interest zone with an upper boundary of 81483 rests on a volume shelf and previous price reversals. 📈 A return to the zone, a buyout, and a candle close above the upper boundary are conditions for a long, with a target of 86234 supported by the volume shelf and local maximum. My plan now is to WAIT "All the bad news is out, who will make the first move in the market?"
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.0%, hitting a new low since February; ADP added 90,000 jobs, stronger than expected. The two sets of data conflict, pushing both "rate hikes" and "pause" into the market simultaneously. The 2-year US Treasury yield fell back, bets on an October rate hike cooled, and the September rate hike is temporarily over. US stock futures turned positive, with the Dow and Nasdaq rising, led by AI hardware and storage.
The crypto market is more subtle: BTC ETF inflows have continued for nine consecutive weeks, but the daily pace has slowed; ETH ended seven consecutive weeks of inflows, turning to outflows on the first day, making the weekend a short-term indicator. CoinShares shows a net inflow of $3.55 billion across the entire industry last week, a new high for the year, with BTC alone accounting for $2.52 billion and XRP attracting $92.3 million.
On-chain, addresses holding over 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by more than 41,000 BTC over ten days, with their share returning to a six-week high. Retail investors are cautious while whales are accumulating; this divergence usually leans bullish.
Conclusion: After the bad news has landed, the window for choosing direction opens. But with thin holiday liquidity, volatility can be amplified, so don't get carried away—wait for confirmation.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC stands strong alone, ETH falling behind? The key is whether 86,000 can hold
$BTC has surged again, approaching the 86,000 USD mark. What the market truly focuses on is not just whether it can break through, but whether it can hold steady for a week after breaking through. If it does, the crypto space may see a rare wave of warmth in the short term.
At the same time, ETH followed the rebound, rising above 2,700 USD, but the momentum is clearly weaker. Compared to BTC's strength, ETH is already struggling around 2,750, and 2,800 seems more like a distant prospect in the short term. The once neck-and-neck "dual core" now seems to be diverging.
The underlying logic may lie in the capital flow: BTC spot ETF weekly inflows have hit a near one-year high, with incremental funds more concentrated on Bitcoin; ETH lacks a narrative of the same scale, so its rebound is naturally more passive.
If BTC breaks above 86,000 and maintains it, market sentiment is expected to recover, but if ETH continues to lag, a broad-based rally may not come simultaneously. Will the leader dance alone, or will the second-in-command gather strength? The next week is a critical observation window.
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Just reviewed Micron's earnings report and organized some key points. $MU
Revenue: The consumer segment's share is almost gone. Now it's mainly data centers.
The earnings report's long-term orders lock in about a quarter of 30 years' revenue,
with a margin of 32 billion and receivables of 150 billion. About 17% is deposits.
The current production expansion bottleneck is the lack of clean rooms, but the clean room construction cycle is about 2-3 years, corresponding to storage starting from 2024. It's roughly okay now. The equipment for clean rooms is not very scarce; the shortage is in manpower and time. Physically, the limit is about this time.
Also, the data center cycle is 2-3 years, and the current limitation for data centers is the queue for grid connection. This is a physical limit that can't be solved by stories, so although computing power is still lacking, the essence is the inability to get data center grid connection approvals.
If the factory building is ready but can't be used, buying chips first doesn't benefit oneself, so locking orders plus queuing for data center grid connection is a win-win.
Therefore, the key is to watch the speed of data center grid connection. This is the hardest and requires a 3-5 year queue, during which storage prices can drop before buying.
So, in terms of the cycle, it's time to start shorting, although there can still be short-term rebounds, the space is insufficient.
But Micron is at least US-based, so still short Hynix.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 The Collapse of Huiwang's Money Empire: A Life-and-Death Test for Exchanges, Ordinary Users, and Cambodian Regulation The downfall of Huiwang Group is a landmark event in the global anti-money laundering field in 2026. It not only led to the recovery and arrest of huge amounts of dirty money but also raised higher compliance requirements for exchanges like OKX and Binance, putting ordinary users at risk of being implicated. This article clearly explains the sequence of events, exchange responses, user self-protection, and Cambodia's legal consequences all at once. 1. Has Huiwang's black money been recovered? How is the arrest progressing? Huiwang Group was once accused by the U.S. Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Bureau of handling funds for Southeast Asian fraud zones and North Korean hackers, with a scale of at least 4 billion USD. In January 2026, Huiwang's head Li Xiong was arrested in Cambodia. In April of the same year, Li Xiong was escorted back to China, and his Cambodian citizenship was officially revoked. With the successive arrests of Li Xiong and Prince Group founder Chen Zhi, this illegal market parasitizing Telegram and worth $24 billion has come to an end. But the situation for recovering dirty money is not optimistic. Huiwang Payment's license was revoked in September 2024, and the statutory liquidation was completed in June 2025. The National Bank of Cambodia has clearly stated that users cannot recover their funds, and the responsibility lies with the operators, recommending legal action. The reported amount is about $31 million and 20 million USDT, but users have no way to cash out. 2. How are exchanges like OKX and Binance responding? Facing increasingly complex money laundering threats, OKX and Binance are building more proactive defense systems.$CT just launched, don’t rush to throw away your heads
Concrete is a blockchain finance operating system, with its TGE just on September 30. As a new coin, it’s normal to have a small circulating supply, scattered chips, and high volatility.
The concept sounds impressive, but there are plenty of similar projects on the market. Whether it can stand out depends on whether the ecosystem can be implemented later; right now, it’s just a pie-in-the-sky stage.
Current price is 0.4117, with a 24-hour amplitude of about 40%, quite thrilling. The 1-hour moving averages are sticking together, RSI6 is at 62, SLOPE EMA has turned positive to 25. Short-term looks like it’s catching a breath, but the big bearish candle at 0.4881 above is suppressing it, so the trend hasn’t reversed at all.
24-hour volume is over 90 million U, the volume is not small, but since TGE just finished, airdrop and market maker chips are still smashing each other, selling pressure hasn’t been digested, bulls and bears are fighting fiercely, sentiment is excited yet fragile.
The overall market is warming up, but US Treasury yields are still stuck there, so risk appetite is just so-so.
Don’t heavily bet on direction with new coins; wait until chips settle down and moving averages flatten before looking for opportunities. Entering now is just giving the dog whales a free trial card. Mainly observe, don’t rush.$ZEC is bearish, the rebound hasn't arrived yet. 4h RSI is 41.6, relatively low; 1h RSI is 43.8, relatively low; MACD is heading down.
If looking for an opportunity, wait for the rebound around 1427–1440 before considering.
Timing: The zone is relatively low, wait for the rebound to confirm.
Window: About 4 to 12 hours (1 to 3 bars of 4h); ends once the downside is reached or invalidated, don't hold stubbornly.
Downside target is 1357; if it breaks above 1473, it means this wave's logic is invalid.
After invalidation, don't force trades; wait to drop back to EMA55 before reconsidering.
Summary: Bearish bias, wait for rebound, not recommended to chase shorts. $LTC LTC is failing to reclaim $68.20 while momentum remains weak around the MA cluster. Fresh data shows positive funding and heavy derivatives activity, while the recent rally was driven strongly by leverage. A rejection below $68.20 keeps the downside setup active.
Short setup.
Entry: $67.20 - $68.10
TP: $66.20 - $65.10 - $63.80 - $62.00
SL: $69.20The first NEAR spot ETF is listed, but the coin price falls instead of rising? Er Gou advises you not to rush to buy in
Brothers, big news for NEAR today: the first spot ETF (NRR) was listed on the NYSE.
Net inflow on the first day was 35.5 million, with assets under management at 36 million.
On the surface, it looks quite impressive.
At the same time, $NEAR reduced token emissions to 1.6%, integrated Claude 5.5, and even intercepted $50 million during the Bitget hacker incident.
A cluster of positive news, almost perfect.
But! The market is too honest.
NEAR’s current price is 5.284, actually down 0.47%.
Resistance at 5.50 (SAR suppression) is like an iron lid, support is at 5.05.
Why so many positives but no price movement?
Er Gou’s translation: expectations were already priced in, the ETF listing is a typical case of “good news turning into bad news upon realization.”
Plus, lawyers question the legal risks of address blacklisting, Intents have metadata exposure risks, so funds dare not rush in blindly.
Er Gou’s strategy:
Don’t chase the price just because it’s "on ETF." The vehicle is too heavy; the dog market makers can’t push it up.
Wait for the spot price to pull back near 5.0-5.1 before buying, and control your contracts.
All the good news is out; chasing now is just giving money to the main players.Sure, I'll rewrite it into a more natural Chinese trader style and make the ETF data flow smoother:
🥊 $BTC vs $ZEC｜Divergence in Capital Flows and Volatility
₿ BTC ~$84K
• $85K → +1.2%
• $87K → +3.6%
• $82K → -2.4%
🟣 ZEC ~$1.4K
• $1.50K → +7.1%
• $1.60K → +14.3%
• $1.30K → -7.1%
But the real highlight is here 👀
📊 Clear divergence in capital flows:
BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous inflows recently, with a cumulative net inflow of about $3.08B over 9 consecutive trading days from September 17 to 29. (Decrypt)
Meanwhile, ZEC spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $30.25M on September 30 alone, showing a clear reversal in capital flow. (TokenPost)
In simple terms:
BTC → Institutional capital + liquidity-driven
ZEC → High volatility + stronger resilience
So what’s worth watching next isn’t just "who gains more," but:
🔥 Who will experience greater price swings in the next market wave?
Focus on capital flows, key support and resistance levels, and volume confirmation after breakouts. 10.1 afternoon, brothers, happy National Day
BTC sideways, ZEC retreating, is capital starting to "be picky"?
The afternoon market is generally weak, no broad rally, capital is selectively defensive.
BTC: current price 83,480 (-0.73%)
After a morning surge to 85,639, it fell back. Currently, the 1-hour level has broken below the EMA moving average. The dense chip area is above 85,000, with key support at 82,500 below. On the macro side, PCE data was below expectations but provided some boost, yet US Treasury yields continue to suppress.
ETH: current price 2,678 (-0.12%)
The trend is weaker than BTC, fluctuating around 2,680. 2,747 is short-term strong resistance, and 2,663 is the 24-hour low. Direction is unclear, waiting for BTC to set the rhythm.
ZEC: current price 1,405 (-2.52%)
Today's main character. After a previous surge, whales took profits (selling 15,000 coins), and the price has retraced from the high of 1,697. High volatility at the top, brutal manipulation, risk outweighs opportunity.
BTC is suppressed by macro factors, ETH is directionless, ZEC is retreating at highs. Capital is picky, don't act recklessly. $BTC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 When the trend comes, profits come from holding, not from being smart
Direction, patience, and bottom chips are all indispensable
Despise the bottom, distrust sideways, disbelieve the high, only chase after the end
The main force doesn't know when you buy, but the main force knows it keeps rising
You will definitely buy
The main force doesn't know when you sell, but the main force knows it keeps falling
You will definitely sell
The real big market always happens when most people have no patience
The top is sharp, the bottom is round
Rising goes from slow to fast, then to extremely fast; falling goes from fast to slow, then to extremely slow
A real trend won't change because of a few days of fluctuations
Short-term proves strength, mid-term realizes wealth
If your position is gone, you can reopen; if consensus is gone, it's hard to come back
A sharp drop kills the price, but what really kills is consensus
The hardest part of a bull market is not buying, but holding on
The market won't repeat, but human nature definitely will
95% of the time it tortures human nature, 5% of the time it is responsible for realization
Being ahead of the market essentially means being ahead of human nature
The goal of trading is not to guess the top, but to survive and catch the trend
There is no coin that always rises, nor a market that always falls, only human nature that keeps repeating Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke previously transferred about 1,500 ETH to Kraken, which was roughly $6 million at the price at the time. But it's important to note: the exchange ≠ transferred to the exchange has already been sold, and on-chain transfers alone cannot directly prove cash-out behavior. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that at least 15 large wallets accumulated about 406,000 ETH in two days, worth about $1.6 billion. In other words, the market is showing two completely different signals at the same time: 🐳 Whale side: Continuous accumulation A large amount of ETH flowed from exchange-related addresses to wallets, indicating that some large funds are reducing liquidity on exchanges. 📊 ETF side: Short-term cooling begins On September 30, the US spot ETH ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about 5,621 ETH, valued at approximately $15.31 million. However, the cumulative total over the past 7 days is still +95,515 ETH, about $260 million, so it currently feels more like a significant slowdown in funds rather than a confirmed trend reversal. ⚙️ Technically, there are also new catalysts The core direction of the Fusaka upgrade includes improving Ethereum L1 execution capabilities, setting the default block gas limit at 60 million, and adding optimizations such as the maximum gas limit per transaction. A correction is needed: Fusaka is not "mainnet only launched in December 2026"; Official data shows the mainnet was activated on December 3, 2025.Trump signed an executive order renaming AI to SI, which seems unrelated to crypto but reminds us that narrative shifts often happen faster than price changes. UNI is currently in such a narrative vacuum. My judgment is sideways with a weak bias, not suitable for chasing longs. The funding rate is only 0.01%, with a position size of 5.678 million, and bullish sentiment is cautious; the 24-hour trading volume is 14.105 million, insufficient to support a breakout, while the order book buy/sell ratio of 1.27 shows buyers slightly dominant. The 1-hour trend is down, the 4-hour trend is up, with short-term oscillation between 8.74 and 9.197. The current price of 8.787 is only 2.92% above the low. I prefer to place a short at 8.815, stop loss at 8.937, target at 8.692; if it pulls back to 8.735, go long with stop loss at 8.661, target at 8.869. Single position size should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$UNI#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI $UNI 兄弟们，节日快乐！🇨🇳 这一轮 ETH 的走势其实已经走出了比较清晰的节奏： 2550 → 2680 → 2800 → 回踩 → 2700附近横盘 目前 ETH 价格重新回到 2700美元附近，短线虽然明显降温，但我的整体判断暂时没有转空。 从技术面来看，KDJ 已经从高位回落，MACD 动能也有所减弱，说明前期上涨后的获利盘正在消化。不过价格目前依旧运行在 EMA20 上方，因此我更倾向于把现在理解成上涨后的高位整理，而不是趋势已经反转。 🔥 资金面也有一个值得注意的变化： 9月21日至25日，美国现货 ETH ETF 合计净流入约 6.9亿美元，说明机构资金此前对 ETH 的配置需求仍然存在。与此同时，ETH 质押比例已经升至约 34%，流通中的可交易筹码正在进一步减少。 另外，市场近期也在关注 ETH ETF 的“质押收益”叙事。Fidelity 已向监管机构提交相关方案，计划让其 ETH ETF 增加质押及季度现金分配机制，这可能继续影响机构对 ETH 收益属性的看法。 📌 接下来我重点看两个位置： 第一支撑：$2,620–2,650 这里是短线多空的重要防守区。如果 $CORE Ignored Time Window: Before the Global Bitcoin Ecosystem Explodes, It Is Seizing the "Standard Position"
The entire industry is now betting on one big direction: Bitcoin is no longer just a store of value, but will develop a whole set of application layers.
However, many have not understood: the track currently lacks a truly unified staking interaction standard.
CORE is doing something very ambitious:
- Continuously exporting a unified interface compatible with multiple types of wallets, custodians, and node service providers;
- Allowing overseas treasuries, asset managers, and enterprises to connect directly to this BTC staking infrastructure without rebuilding technology from scratch;
- If enough third parties are willing to develop products based on this standard, it will no longer be just a public chain but become the underlying middleware in the Bitcoin value-added track.
The risk is very real:
Competitors keep entering the track, leading wallets and large institutions are also developing their own solutions; whether it can secure enough partners and form network effects, the window period is actually limited.
It hasn’t already won, but is in an ongoing positioning battle that is not yet finished.Trump renamed AI to SI, which seems like a naming game but actually reinforces the macro narrative of computing power and storage. SKHYNIX, as a core memory stock, directly benefits. I judge the short-term trend to be slightly strong but caution against a pullback. The four-hour level is still in an upward channel, 8.22% above the low point, indicating solid buying on dips; however, the one-hour chart has turned downward, falling 2.77% from the high. The top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.94, with 253 sell orders outweighing 239 buy orders. The funding rate is zero, and the open interest is 34,000, showing the bulls are not overheated, so the short-term trend leans toward consolidation and digestion. You can place a long order at the pullback to 1291.5, with a stop loss at 1278.3 and a target of 1347.2; if a volume breakout above 1349.4 fails, then lightly short with a stop loss at 1361.8 and a target of 1302.6. Single position size should not exceed 20%, exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI
#特朗普签署行政令将AI更名为SI $SKHYNIX Nine consecutive days confirmed: −148.7 million officially cut off. The first stop after the cut-off doesn't hold?
On Farside as of 9/30: total −148.7MIBIT −9.5 / FBTC −125.6 / BITB −13.6) The nine inflows end here; 10/1 is not confirmed yet, don't speculate prematurely. The market price hasn't made a new low; instead, it surged to about 84418 in the afternoon then retreated to about 83587 — capital cut off, but price first faked a rise then consolidated.
My own (not a call): ① End-of-day confirmation ≠ continued selling tomorrow, don't write a crash script based on one day; ② 10/1 not out yet, wait for full confirmation; ③ Move less before non-farm payrolls, on the first day after the cut-off watch the position, not slogans.
Public: Farside BTC ETF, OKX mouth.
Your view: A wait and see after cut-off / B price hasn't crashed already counted / C wait for 10/1 + non-farm dual verification?$BTC If you heavily invested in altcoins and didn't sell at the peak in April 2023, your assets need to multiply 5 times $ETH to break even, right? #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ONE Dear teachers, the current price of ONE is 0.0020628, slightly retreating, entering a correction phase after a previous surge.
There are a total of 209 whale samples, with a nominal long-short ratio of 109.15%. Most longs are at a loss, many having chased at high levels, while shorts have some floating profits.
After a round of heat subsides, the market lacks upward momentum. The pressure from trapped positions accumulated during the previous surge is considerable, so the short-term trend will mainly be consolidation and grinding. Do not easily assume a big drop means a bottom.
Attack level: 0.00237, defense level: 0.00184.
⚠️ Teachers must control their positions carefully, be cautious 现在这条传导链越来越清晰： 🛢️ 原油先动：美伊谈判迟迟没有突破，霍尔木兹海峡供应风险重新成为焦点，布伦特近期一度冲上 $105 附近。 🥇 黄金随后受关注：地缘风险与通胀预期同时升温，避险资金重新寻找防御资产。 📉 纳指承压：油价上涨叠加美债收益率走高，成长股的估值压力明显增加。近期10年期美债收益率一度升至 5.3%附近，30年期也逼近 5.7%。 而 $BTC 现在反而处在一个尴尬的中间位置。 它既没有完全跟随风险资产下跌，也没有因为避险情绪直接走出独立行情，所以最近几天更多表现为 $82K–$85K附近震荡。 这也意味着，一旦油价、美元、美债收益率或地缘局势出现明显方向变化，BTC可能会结束这种低波动状态，迎来更大的波动。 ⚡ $SOL 则更像是在等待资金重新下注。 战争本身不是它唯一的核心变量，真正需要观察的是 ETF资金、杠杆、交易量以及风险偏好是否重新放大。此前美国现货SOL ETF曾出现明显资金流入，9月18日单日净流入达到约 $47.6M，说明机构资金仍然是观察SOL的重要变量。 📌 现在真正值得盯的不是猜方向，而是等待市场给出确认： 油价继续冲高 + 美债收#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year, indicating that stablecoin compliance tightening is drawing out some gray market liquidity. For high-volatility contracts like CL, short-term sentiment is bearish. I judge the current weak rebound within a downtrend channel, not a trend reversal.
Up 3.3% in 24 hours to 92.28, but the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages still point down, and it has retraced 8.39% from the 4-hour high, showing limited rebound strength. Trading volume is 13.077 million, order book buy/sell ratio is only 0.72, with clear selling pressure dominance. The funding rate is 0.0000% and open interest is 426,000, indicating bulls are not actively adding positions and sentiment is cautious.
If the rebound is blocked at 92.63, consider light short positions with stop loss at 93.47 and target at 89.35; if volume breaks through 92.63, go long with stop loss at 91.28 and target at 95.12. Position size should not exceed 20%, and exit decisively if it breaks below 88.86.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL #Iran received a US counterproposal, US-Iran differences remain
#Tether has frozen nearly $550 million USDT related to Iran this year $CL The market completed a highly destructive "rapid deleveraging flash crash" between 15:15 and 15:45, instantly wiping out the floating positions that chased the early session up to 2,720.99 USDT. The current price is now stabilizing near 2,681.00 USDT after a pullback; the total open interest (OI) across the network plummeted by over 32,900 ETH (nominal value wiped nearly $88 million), and the 15-minute long-short ratio sharply cooled from 1.58 to a light range of 1.12–1.35. Currently, the account holds 100% cash, and this violent shakeout has just provided a high risk-reward opportunity for a trend trade entry at a low point.$ETH short, 100x leverage. Entry around $2,715, liquidation at $2,753.
Just $38 away from losing tomorrow’s rent and food money.
I used to wonder how people could gamble their livelihood on leverage. Now I understand the lesson the hard way: never risk money you need to live.
#ETH #Crypto #Trading#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #BTCInflowETHOutflow #USTreasuryYieldsClimb Regulatory clarity rarely arrives as a single statute. The more consequential shift may be whether existing SEC authority can give early-stage issuers a workable path while legislation remains unsettled.
The proposed exemptions and disclosure framework point toward a market where compliance becomes part of product design, not an afterthought. That could favor teams built for transparency over speed alone.
#SECOnchainFundingRules #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, with privacy sector heat spreading. MMT, as a peer in the same track, only rose slightly by 0.5%, indicating funds have not truly shifted yet. I judge its catch-up potential is still building momentum. Current quote is 0.1879, buyers slightly dominate the order book, the buy-sell strength ratio in the top 10 levels is 1.06, funding rate is only 0.0050%, open interest is 9.251 million, bulls are not overheated, sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Both 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, having risen 51.05% from the 4-hour low, short-term upward momentum remains but watch for pullbacks. Strategy: lightly buy on dips near 0.1849, set stop loss at 0.1783, target 0.1929; if volume breaks above this high, add positions, controlling holdings within 20%, strictly manage risk.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$MMT#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700
#ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $MMT BTC is about to experience a 5000-point drop, with open positions as follows:
From a technical perspective, the 85000 to 86000 range is a strong resistance zone repeatedly tested previously. BTC previously surged to around 85500, leaving a long upper shadow, indicating heavy selling pressure above and that chasing buyers couldn't hold. The 4-hour RSI has fallen back from the overbought zone, and the MACD momentum bars are shrinking, showing signs of a short-term bearish divergence. If the price cannot hold above 85500, a pullback is highly likely. The first support below is at 83000, and if broken, look to 82000.
The news side also does not support a continued rally. PCE data was below expectations, which should be positive, but BTC surged to 85500 and then dropped, indicating the good news has been priced in and buying momentum is insufficient. ETF inflows are slowing, dropping from nearly 1 billion to 66 million in a single day, and ETH ETFs have even turned to net outflows, with institutions pulling back in the short term. Within the Federal Reserve, Kashkari has taken a hawkish stance, saying inflation remains too high and another rate hike may be needed this year. Nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, and the market is reluctant to take heavy positions before the data, showing strong caution. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and pressure on risk-free assets has not eased.
In terms of operations, lightly short around 85188, with stop loss set above 86000. If volume pushes and holds above 86000, it means the bearish logic fails and exit unconditionally. The first target is 83000, and if broken, look to 82000. Position size should be controlled between 10% and 15%, with leverage not exceeding 3x. Avoid heavy positions, set stop losses properly, and wait for the nonfarm data release before deciding the direction. $BTC ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700, with the privacy sector's heat spilling over, benefiting SNDK accordingly. However, I judge this round of linkage to be driven more by sentiment, so caution is needed when chasing highs.
24h up 2.5% at 1774.7, highest 1797.8, lowest 1721.1, with a turnover of only 421,000, volume is relatively thin. The 4-hour rise is 16.50% from the low, but the 1-hour has turned down, -0.81% from the high, indicating short-term momentum is weakening. Funding rate is zero, open interest 43,000, sentiment neutral; top 10 bids 324, asks 255, bids slightly dominant.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 1738.6, stop loss at 1712.4, target 1793.5; if volume breaks through 1797.8, chase long to 1836.2, stop loss at 1764.8. Single position size controlled within 5%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$SNDK#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 $SNDK Most altcoins took turns active in September, and SOL is one of the few assets that consistently maintained strength. What really matters is not whether it has risen, but whether this strength can continue to be confirmed by capital. 1️⃣ ETF funds are still flowing in, but the scale is not large. SOL-related ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive days, with a single-day volume of about $12.6M. The amount is not exaggerated, but the continuity is worth observing. In contrast, ETH saw capital outflows the previous trading day, so SOL's liquidity is temporarily more stable. 2️⃣ Sideways trading structure remains strong. SOL has performed about +2.8% over the past 7 days, still standing out among mainstream altcoins. Currently, the price mainly fluctuates around the $118–$124 range, with selling pressure persisting above but lows gradually rising, indicating that the bulls and bears have not yet completed their directional selection. 3️⃣ Mid-term catalysts have not fully materialized Institutional capital deployment, stablecoins, and RWA ecosystem expansion are relatively slow variables, while the mainnet launch of Alpenglow remains an event worth tracking going forward. A short-term explosion may not happen immediately, but if funds continue to flow in, it could support the medium-term narrative. 🔎 My key observation: $125 If SOL can hold above $125 with increased volume, the upper boundary of the range may start to be retested; Conversely, if continuous ETF inflows suddenly break and the price falls below $118, then this current "strong sideways movement" needs to be reassessed. The key now is not chasing the rally, but the observation capitalBitcoin ETF has seen inflows for 9 consecutive days while ETH experiences outflows, with funds rotating from mainstream coins to mid- and small-cap targets like KAITO. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but caution against pullbacks. On the four-hour chart, it has rebounded over 23% from the low of 0.3349. Although it retreated to around 0.3446 on the one-hour chart, the top 10 order book shows 53,000 buy orders versus 50,000 sell orders, with buyers slightly dominant; the funding rate at 0.0050% is relatively low, and open interest is 11.16 million, indicating moderate and non-crowded bullish sentiment. Strategically, one can place a long order at 0.3397 with a stop loss at 0.3269 and a target of 0.3713; if it rallies to around 0.3661 and faces resistance, a light short position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.3749 and a target of 0.3481, with a single position not exceeding 10%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading.——
$KAITO#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $KAITO That fake breakout in $BTC was one of those moves that could easily catch traders off guard. Price pushed above 85,200 with stronger volume and positive market news, making the breakout look convincing. For anyone chasing a long above 85,000, it was a dangerous setup once the move quickly reversed. The most frustrating part wasn’t just the drop—it was how convincing the breakout looked at first. Volume was there. The news looked supportive. Resistance was broken. Momentum appeared to be building