Orbit Post Sitemap
Currently, there is a notable divergence in the funding market: previous data showed that ETH spot ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of about $34.75 million, while BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $120 million over the same period, and ETH/BTC has returned to its stage highs. But macro pressures have yet to be lifted. Yesterday's U.S. PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, and the rebound in energy prices combined with Middle East tensions has reignited market concerns about further inflation; Currently, market expectations for the Fed's rate hike next week have clearly increased, making today's CPI the real key variable. 📌 Key positions: Support: 2425–2445. After a breakout, watch around 2385. Resistance: 2505–2535. Only a high-volume breakout and a stable hold will have a chance to continue pushing for 2600–2650. So although ETH is currently slightly stronger than BTC, it's not too early to jump to conclusions. PPI has already put pressure on the market; next, it's up to CPI to see if it can truly trigger this bombshell. CPI is relatively cool→ risk assets are expected to rebound, and ETH may remain relatively strong. CPI continues to heat up → rate hike expectations further increase, and ETH's upward pressure will increase significantly. Before tonight's data is released, ETH is better suited to follow structure rather than blindly chasing trends. #ETH #BTC #PPI #CPI #美联储 #以太坊Does this mean a bull market is coming by the end of the year?
BIT analysts pointed out two catalysts: U.S. debt breaking the psychological 40 trillion mark, and U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%.
Since July 24, BTC has risen 22%, gold 9.4%, which indeed aligns with this logic.
Using a macro cycle model, they judge that we are currently in the first phase of cyclical re-inflation, usually accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodities. Historical data shows that in this phase, the annualized returns are about 29% for U.S. stocks, 47% for gold, and approximately 73% for $BTC.
Additionally, from 2020 to 2026, U.S. debt has a compound annual growth rate of 8.59%, M2 grows 6.02%, both far exceeding the CPI of 4.11%, indicating long-term inflationary pressure is accumulating.
The logic is self-consistent, but the "annualized 73%" figure is based on historical backtesting, not a guarantee #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows 如果哪天暖气公司告诉我，家里的热水是挖比特币顺手烧出来的，我第一反应大概是：行，别让我跟着币价忽冷忽热就好。 芬兰还真有人把这件事做成了生意。MARA 在 2024 年启动当地余热供暖试点，后来在财报里披露，两个项目接入的社区合计接近 8 万居民。先别脑补成 8 万户家家摆矿机，也不是整个冬天全靠它们供热。 机器留在机房，热量通过水和原有管网送出去。今年 1 月的报道提到，这些系统按全年基础用热需求设计，到了冬天，电锅炉和生物质锅炉还要补上额外的热。矿机接了一份副业，没把其他同事全开除。 这个点子我挺喜欢。过去机器发热，运营方得想办法把热散掉；现在附近正好有人需要热，还愿意为它付钱。一份电费背后，多了一项可以卖的东西。比起只盯着币价，这至少给矿企增加了另一条收入来源。 但听到“边挖币边供暖”，很容易顺嘴变成“电等于白用”。这一步我不跟。 如果一家公司已经要开矿场，顺手回收余热，和为了供暖专门再建一个矿场，是两笔账。前者讨论怎么少浪费，后者必须回答：同样一笔投入，还有没有更合适的供热办法？热泵可以搬运环境里的热，不能只拿矿机跟普通电暖器比一轮，就宣布胜出了。 当然，换设备、改管网也要钱。This passage mainly discusses that the combination of AI and cybersecurity may generate a very large long-term computational demand.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes that cybersecurity could become one of the next important application scenarios for AI, and that such AI security systems might "run continuously." The meaning here is that in the future, AI will not just occasionally help analyze a security event but may continuously monitor network traffic, devices, accounts, and abnormal behaviors, automatically analyzing any suspicious activity once detected.
The author further connects this viewpoint with CRWD (CrowdStrike) and PANW (Palo Alto Networks). Since these two companies belong to the cybersecurity field, if cybersecurity gradually adopts this always-on AI inference, the amount of data that needs to be processed and analyzed daily could increase significantly. Data being continuously fed into AI models for detection means that the demand for computing, cloud infrastructure, and AI platforms may increase.
However, it is important to distinguish two things here: "The use of AI in cybersecurity will increase" is an industry trend judgment, whereas "CRWD and PANW will definitely rise because of this" is not a guaranteed outcome. Stock prices are also influenced by many factors such as company revenue, profits, valuation, competition, and overall market sentiment. Brother Ci's public order: reasons and strategies along with my pending orders shared simultaneously
Just glanced at the liquidation map, a big whale near 76000 is being cornered. The 75588 level is exactly the dividing line between bears and bulls.
Last night, after the PPI data dropped, BTC briefly fell to around 76000 but did not break it. After four consecutive daily declines, the price hit the lower Bollinger Band with the three bands converging, indicating the market is about to choose a direction. The 76000 to 77000 range has been tested several times recently, each time quickly pulled back, showing there is real buying support below. Analysts from 21Shares also said that around 77000 is the current support zone.
The macro environment is in a tug of war. The PPI year-over-year at 5.4% indeed exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 70%, but tonight's CPI is the real judge. If core inflation unexpectedly cools and rate hike expectations fall, BTC has a chance to quickly rebound and test 77500 to 78500.
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows OI shows that the last dump pulled in lots of shorts, and this little pump is fuelled by aggressive shorts closing. For longs, there are two scenario's I'm focussing on for today, both after CPI (08:30 ET). If we sweep the 76.2K PWL we induce more sellers and liquidate buyers, will look for long-triggers when this happens. The 2nd one, the one I prefer, is that CPI triggers a big flash wick sub 75.5K. When this happens, all buyers in this range are wiped out and sellers will enter aggressively. This passage mainly discusses how "cryptocurrency is increasingly influenced by the US macroeconomic environment." The author believes that the US PPI exceeding expectations, combined with rising oil prices, has caused the market to worry that inflation might heat up again, leading investors to reconsider the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policies. Under these circumstances, BTC is under pressure, while ETH and SOL show divergent performance, meaning they do not fully move in sync with BTC.
The most important logical chain in the article is: rising oil prices → increased inflationary pressure → changes in market interest rate expectations → potential rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields → pressure on risk assets like BTC. The reason is that if the market believes inflation is stubborn, the Federal Reserve's room to cut rates may shrink, or it might maintain higher rates for longer. Higher US dollar interest rates and bond yields usually make investors more cautious about risk assets.
The author then focuses on the CPI and the Federal Reserve meetings. PPI mainly reflects price changes on the production side, while CPI more directly reflects consumer-side inflation, so the market pays special attention to whether CPI continues to cool down. If inflation data does not improve, market concerns about Federal Reserve policies may continue to impact BTC, ETH, and SOL. 热闹归热闹，结构其实没跟上 这波反弹，真是山寨该表现的时候吗？ 昨晚PPI比预期高，BTC一度砸到76500附近，ETH跟着退到2400。盘面看着像"利空落地后的修复"，但我盯了一整天，感觉更像一次被宏观按住的波动阶段，不是趋势重新点火。白天横着走、轻微回暖，晚上还要等CPI，这种节奏最磨人，也最容易让人误判强弱。 我自己的仓也经历了一轮回撤，账面从6880U附近缩到6080U左右，直接少了800U。说不心疼是假的。更气的是SNDK，我扛了一周的空单，实在受不了就保本平了，结果今天它又滑到1666U。那种"我不卖它不跌，我一卖它就跌"的体感，懂的都懂。 但情绪归情绪，结构要看清楚： - BTC在76500一带被接住，说明大资金还没撤，只是不愿意在高波动前追价。 - ETH跌破2400后修复偏慢，汇率上依然弱，说明它不是这轮的领涨核心。 - 山寨更明显，白天有反弹，但量能和持续性都不够，更像是被BTC带着喘口气，而不是自己走出独立行情。 这里有个容易被忽略的点：市场现在交易的不是"利空出尽"，而是"下一次数据会不会更鹰"。PPI已经让降息预期往后挪了一点，CPI如果再来一下，风险偏好会先The same rise in oil prices can tell completely different stories in different countries. Take China and India, the two most compared countries on the Simplified Chinese internet, as an example:
In China, due to reduced supply from the Middle East, some independent refineries are actively adjusting their supply chains. Recently, they have purchased over 20 million barrels of crude oil from West Africa, Canada, and South America, even when some crude oil showed significant premiums. This highlights an important issue: China is not simply buying less oil and shifting to new energy sources; rather, it is restructuring where to buy from, how to buy, and which shipping routes to use. This global trade route restructuring is actually part of energy security.
In India, also one of the world's largest oil importers, after Brent crude prices rose recently, the Indian rupee has fallen back below 95 to 1 USD. The logic is straightforward: oil is more expensive, India needs more dollars to buy oil, dollar demand increases, and the rupee comes under pressure.
For markets like these, the damage caused by rising oil prices is often more direct and brutal than in the US.This week I only did one thing: held onto the short position of $SKHYNIX without moving.
The result was no loss, but no profit either. The lesson is that I took "data manipulation" as the direction.
The moderate inflation readings may not come from an improving economy, but more likely from housing and medical sectors being pre-processed. Good-looking data does not mean the problem is solved, and I judged this correctly.
But the short position was betting on price decline, not on the narrative being correct. The act of manipulating data itself may be serving stability before the interest rate decision. I missed this chain.
Next, watch whether risk assets continue to strengthen before the interest rate decision. If they keep rising, it means the inference that "data manipulation equals bad news" is wrong.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 #日银年内再加息成焦点 $SKHYNIX Does this mean a bull market is coming by the end of the year?
BIT analysts pointed out two catalysts: U.S. debt breaking the psychological 40 trillion mark, and U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%.
Since July 24, BTC has risen 22%, gold 9.4%, which indeed aligns with this logic.
Using a macro cycle model, they judge that we are currently in the first phase of cyclical re-inflation, usually accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodities. Historical data shows that in this phase, the annualized returns for U.S. stocks are about 29%, gold 47%, and $BTC about 73%.
Additionally, from 2020 to 2026, U.S. debt is growing at a compound annual rate of 8.59%, M2 at 6.02%, both far exceeding the CPI of 4.11%, indicating long-term inflationary pressure is accumulating.
The logic is self-consistent, but the "annualized 73%" figure is based on historical backtesting, not a guarantee.
The real key is whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to pivot due to inflation pressure. Currently, the rate hike expectation is still above 60%, which suppresses risk assets in the short term.
Whether the bull market will come by year-end is uncertain, but this macro background is indeed favorable for Bitcoin and gold.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Charge
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 BTC oversold bottoming out, ETH resilient and gathering strength — the turning point window is approaching
The market has entered the final stage of consolidation, with sufficient chip exchange and a near-critical tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Key observations are as follows:
BTC: Selling pressure dulls, recovery momentum accumulates
① Extreme indicators: The J values of the daily and 4-hour KDJ fall into the 0-3 range, an unusually oversold level, with limited room for further decline.
② Leverage cooling: Funding rates have fallen back near zero, and open interest slightly rises amid a slow decline, indicating that chasing long positions has exited and a new, more balanced game is underway.
③ Sentiment divergence: The 4-hour long-short ratio is rising, retail bulls have not yet surrendered, and the main force may be completing the final washout through oscillation.
ETH: Trend is relatively strong, reversal conditions increasing
① Relatively firm: Price turns positive against the trend, daily KDJ is neutral, 4-hour lows remain unbroken, showing better resilience than BTC.
② Short interest cost: Funding rates turn negative, short position costs rise, accumulating potential short squeeze pressure.
③ Stable structure: Open interest is steady, long-short ratio remains balanced, and once the overall market stops falling, ETH’s rebound elasticity may be stronger.
Comprehensive strategy:
Deleveraging is nearing its end, and oversold conditions with funding rates near zero often signal an impending turning point. At this time, it is unwise to panic sell or rush to chase gains. Wait for clear stabilization, accumulate in batches at low levels, and keep positions to cope with fluctuations.
$BTC $ETH This article 【Pharaoh Market Watch】 mainly discusses: A slightly hot PPI does not necessarily mean BTC will crash immediately; what really needs to be observed is the CPI, because CPI more directly reflects consumer-side inflation.
1. What does a slightly hot PPI mean?
**PPI (Producer Price Index)** can be understood as "inflation at the production stage."
The article states:
PPI month-on-month: +0.4%
PPI year-on-year: +5.4%
Core PPI year-on-year: +4.7%
Diesel price rose 24.1% in a single month
The author believes these data indicate that price pressure on the production side is still quite evident.
Simply put:
> Enterprise production costs ↑ → Possible future increase in product prices → Inflation pressure ↑
---
2. Why does a slightly hot PPI affect BTC?
The market usually links inflation data with Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
The logic roughly is:
Inflation is relatively high → space for rate cuts may shrink → market interest rate expectations rise → risk assets come under pressure
genui{"learning_viz":{"type_id":"MONETARY_POLICY","initial_values":{"policy_type":"contractionary","policy_strength":0.7},Tonight's CPI release, personally I think short-term optimism for Bitcoin is unwarranted**
Conclusion first: For the US August CPI data at 20:30 tonight, I lean bearish.
PPI has already "exploded" ahead — August year-on-year surged to 5.4%, far exceeding the expected 5.1%. With energy and diesel data as they are, it's hard for CPI to stay low-key. The market now prices in over a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%. This environment puts real pressure on BTC, which is a non-yielding asset.
Technically, Bitcoin is hovering around $77,000, with the $76,270 support line just beneath, less than $800 away. My personal judgment is that if CPI beats expectations, this support will likely break, and there's a good chance of a downward probe. Even if the data just meets expectations, the market has already priced in the rate hike, so rebound potential is limited.
What concerns me more is the capital flow. The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $120 million a couple of days ago, and the scale is still expanding. Money is flowing out, which is not a good sign. In contrast, Ethereum and Solana have inflows, indicating that existing funds are rotating from BTC to other assets — the leader is being "bled". $BTC **Can you short crude oil? No, especially now
This afternoon oil already plunged — Houthi forces said the Red Sea fighting stopped, Brent crude dropped 4% in one candle to 103, WTI fell below 100.
Many people get itchy seeing this bearish candle: it was still 108 yesterday, if you shorted when you saw the opportunity, the first wave of profit is already gone. Yesterday CTA trend funds were 100% long Brent crude, today when the ceasefire news came out, the long positions panicked and it only dropped 4%. If you chase shorts now, you are entering after others have hit their stop losses. This oil rally is not just sentiment. Saudi Arabia's August production plunged by 1.9 million barrels/day, the lowest since 1990; US diesel inventories are at historic seasonal lows; the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. The news can bring a ceasefire overnight, but the supply damage is real. Goldman Sachs' scenario model sees 120, HSBC just raised its annual forecast from 80 to 90 — institutions are revising upwards, not downwards. The peak of the war premium is created by news. Ceasefire today, tomorrow a tweet can reignite the fire. Where do you set your stop loss on shorts? Geopolitical markets gap open, stop loss orders won't save you. Crude oil is not our battlefield. High margin, fierce gaps, mismatched trading hours, to make money here you have to watch Middle East news around the clock. The oil-crypto correlation is what you should care about: oil down → inflation expectations cool → rate hike bets fall → bullish for BTC. This afternoon oil plunged, US stock futures immediately rallied, gold V-shaped rebound. Instead of shorting oil to bet on news, better hold your crypto and wait for the correlation. Tonight at 20:30 CPI, if the data cooperates, this oil drop will be the starting gun for risk asset rebound #CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 昨天，卢米斯公布了一个630页的替代修正案。说是吸收了民主党那边114项要求，听着挺有诚意对吧？但你们仔细看看核心条款——非托管DeFi协议的注册规则完善了，适用范围限定在数字商品现货和现金交易，自托管、开发者保护这些也都保留了。但最关键的一条，官员加密利益冲突的条款，原封不动，一点没改。 懂了吧，这法案为什么一直卡着？就是卡在这儿。民主党非要在这上面做文章，特朗普那边又不可能让步，这死结压根没解开。 贝森特急了，亲自下场施压。 他公开呼吁参议员支持程序动议，让法案先进去讨论和修正。9月15号参议院要投票，投的是“要不要正式启动审议”。注意，这只是程序性投票，不是最终表决。但就这个程序性投票，也需要60票，共和党手里只有53席，还得从民主党那边挖7票过来。现在这情况，能争取到几票还真不好说。 那这事对币圈有什么影响？ 第一层，短期情绪就是一场博弈。9月15号投票如果没过，市场大概率会把这个当成一个利空来砸，但盘面其实早就对此有预期了，不至于崩盘。如果万一过了，那就是大超预期，情绪会瞬间点燃。 第二层，中长期监管框架的落地在往后拖。这Bonk Guy called EMBER the next major bet, reasoning that he was optimistic about the Solana ecosystem first.
This sequence is worth pondering. He first shifted after seeing cultural changes in ecosystem leadership, then picked EMBER as the specific target. In other words, buying occurred after ecosystem judgment, not first seeing EMBER's own product data.
To outsiders, this looks more like a viewpoint-driven bet rather than a usage-driven discovery. He said "the next important bet," but the reason for the bet currently only falls on his impression of the Solana ecosystem.
Whether EMBER is used, whether funds continue to come in, are not included in the materials. These two are the steps that turn opinions into facts.
Can a trader's shift really mean the ecosystem has changed?
#LAPTOP首发跌近99%, controversy in the Meme market heats up $SOL I'm going out for drinks tonight, sitting in a dimly lit bar for half the evening, so I won't be trading online most of the time.
If after today's CPI release, we still can't push down the VIX, the US 10-year Treasury yield, and oil prices together to sustain the bulls, then the market will very likely officially enter at least a 10% correction phase.
That old Wall Street saying—"Sell on the Jewish New Year, buy back on Yom Kippur."—might come true again this time.
If the weakness is confirmed, we'll continue to increase our short positions, then patiently wait until around September 21 to prepare for a strong bottom-fishing move.
Currently, the SPX 50-day moving average is near 7000, which in my view is the first major target for this correction, roughly corresponding to a typical 10% pullback. In a year like this, such a correction magnitude is not unusual.
This is also my main target for the broader market at the moment.
The US dollar is currently somewhat suppressed, partly to ease pressure on the yen. But if interest rate expectations rise again and the dollar starts to rebound, gold is very likely to break down and retest the 4200 level.
So today is very critical for precious metals.
Another issue to watch is the South Korean market. It's already weak, and if it experiences a rapid decline, it could drag down the NASDAQ, especially highly correlated sectors like semiconductors and memory chips.
If the trend is confirmed, I'll add more exposure with some capital. Good luckWhat I think is truly worth paying attention to in this version of the CLARITY Act is not "another regulatory bill," but that the U.S. is finally starting to carve out territory for Crypto.
The core change boils down to two words: decentralization.
For most qualifying digital assets and spot markets, regulatory focus is further shifting toward the CFTC; the SEC will be more responsible for assets with stronger securities attributes. If this direction is ultimately implemented, it will be a huge positive for the entire industry.
My judgment:
Mature assets like BTC and ETH will benefit most directly, and exchanges, compliant custody, stablecoins, and RWA will also reap dividends.
But I am actually more focused on DeFi.
Because once true regulatory certainty emerges, institutional funds will dare to enter on a large scale. Previously, the fear was not that Crypto had no opportunity, but that the rules were undefined, so money was hesitant to come in.
Therefore, this time I will focus on:
BTC / ETH
Compliant trading platforms
Stablecoins
RWA
DeFi
However, it is not yet time to blindly be bullish. The Senate is expected to hold a key procedural vote on September 15; whether it can truly advance is the next hurdle.
Regulation is not the end of the market trend; it may instead be the starting point for the next wave of incremental capital inflow. Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US August CPI will be released, with an expectation of 3.4%. This is the most critical data before the Federal Reserve's September 16th meeting, bar none.
The market has already reacted in advance; BTC has directly fallen below 77,000. Funds are moving out before the data release, indicating that the market's concern about strong inflation is not just talk—real money is reducing positions to hedge risk. Last week's PPI year-on-year was 5.4%, exceeding expectations, with energy inflation rising again. The market now prices in about a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, with only the CPI left as the final deciding factor.
To be blunt, if tonight's CPI is above 3.4%, it basically seals the rate hike. US Treasury yields will continue to rise, ETF funds will accelerate outflows, and BTC's next support level will be in the 74,000 to 75,000 range. At that point, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions—don't try to catch the bottom. If CPI is below expectations, the market will immediately speculate on the Fed pausing rate hikes. BTC might retest 79,000 to 80,000, but this is just an emotional rebound, not a reversal. PPI remains high, energy inflation risks are unresolved, and the Fed won't fully ease just because of one data point. The most frustrating scenario is meeting expectations, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth, stop-loss hunting with spikes—this kind of market is best observed quietly.
Here are some practical suggestions: don't heavily bet on direction before the data release; news-driven spikes can be brutal. If you have positions, set your stop-losses well—don't wait until the data comes out and then panic. If you're out of the market, be patient and wait for the candle structure confirmation after the data before making a move. US PPI higher than expected, rising oil prices make the market cautious about Fed policy. $BTC is under pressure, while $ETH and $SOL show divergence.
Chain of effects to watch: Oil ↑ → inflation ↑ → interest rate expectations ↑ → USD/yields ↑ → crypto under pressure.
CPI and the upcoming Fed meeting will be the focus. Crypto is increasingly sensitive to macro flows, no longer moving independently.
#PPIHotCPINext $BTC Recently $BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows, this signal cannot be ignored.
It indicates institutions are withdrawing short-term and waiting for cheaper chips, it's not simply a long-term bearish outlook.
This wave of outflows is more due to macro interest rate expectations plus profit-taking, not a collapse of on-chain fundamentals.
Old rule in crypto: continuous net outflows from ETFs first kill sentiment, then wash out leverage, only after selling pressure clears can there be a decent rebound.
Current strategy remains unchanged: don't panic sell your base holdings, don't be scared by capital flows;
But it's not yet time to go all-in bottom fishing, wait for ETF outflows to narrow, prices to stop making new lows, and volume to shrink properly, then add in batches.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 IEA warns of widening gap, diesel breaks $6 for the first time in history, can BTC hold up under global rate hikes?
IEA just dropped a bombshell: global oil supply in 2026 will be 1.74 million barrels/day lower than demand, previously forecasted at only 1.27 million. Saudi Arabia's August production fell to 6.238 million barrels/day, the lowest since 1990. The US average diesel price broke $6/gallon for the first time ever, this is no joke—transportation, agriculture, and logistics costs all have to rise.
On the same day, domestic refined oil couldn't hold either; after temporary regulation, gasoline and diesel still rose by 260 and 250 yuan respectively. US PPI soared 5.4% year-on-year, the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 74%, and in October to 82%. Japan is very likely to raise rates by 25 basis points next week, with a 97% probability. Central banks worldwide are simultaneously tightening liquidity.
My judgment: oil prices breaking $100, diesel breaking $6, central bank rate hikes—the stagflation logic is fully suppressing risk assets. BTC falling below 77,000 is the market voting. Tonight's CPI is a critical test—if it exceeds expectations, look for 75,000; if it meets or falls below expectations, it may trigger a rebound after the sell-off.
$BTC $CL $BZ
#红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#日银年内再加息成焦点 There has been another incident in the Red Sea, this time directly pushing up your vehicle operating costs.
On September 10, the Houthi forces continued to attack ships on the Red Sea route and Saudi energy facilities, further deteriorating the security of energy transportation. Supply concerns have extended from the Strait of Hormuz all the way to the Red Sea. Trump jumped in saying that oil prices might not significantly fall until after the midterm elections in November, but so far no ceasefire or production increase arrangements have been announced. This means the period of high energy costs will last longer than the market expects.
Crude oil futures have now dropped more than 3%, but the battle around the $100 mark has entered a white-hot phase. High oil prices directly push up inflation expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in September is currently stuck around 70%, continuously pressuring risk assets.
For BTC, short-term pressure is objective. Oil prices and rate hike expectations suppress valuations, and rising funding costs weaken the appeal of interest-free assets. But the mid-term logic should be viewed differently: the more stubborn energy inflation is, the faster fiat currency credit erodes, and BTC’s narrative as a non-sovereign hard asset will be continuously strengthened.
Tonight’s CPI is the referee deciding the short-term direction. If the data is hot, combined with diesel prices approaching $6, inflation concerns will continue to rise, and BTC may continue to dip near 75000. If core inflation unexpectedly cools and rate hike expectations fall, BTC will have a chance to launch a corrective rebound. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Behind the 5.5% Surge Before Market Open: Has Oracle Entered a Compute Power Revaluation, or Is It Walking a Tightrope?
Oracle's earnings report exceeded expectations on both fronts, surging 5.5% pre-market. Everyone in the group chat is praising the compute power revaluation, but the more I look at this earnings report, the more I feel it's risky.
Everyone is only focused on the double beat of expectations, but no one notices that traditional software licensing only reached 655 million, falling short of expectations. Instead, cloud infrastructure jumped to 7.39 billion in a single quarter, with the scale directly overshadowing the total of traditional software support and licensing. This is not a mild transformation; it’s a veteran software giant smashing its own cash cow and betting everything on AI compute power.
Many have forgotten the June tragedy when it beat expectations but still plunged nearly 12%. At that time, Wall Street made it clear: whoever’s cloud isn’t strong enough gets cut down. So Oracle went all out, setting a revenue target of 90 billion and raising 40 billion to aggressively build data centers, partnering with Google to embed Gemini into enterprise software, and pushing Abilene data center deliveries to 42%. It no longer competes with AWS for ordinary customers but has directly tied itself to the leading AI model giants.
Honestly, my compute power position is extremely conflicted right now. If this surge is just an emotional pulse, with the high-margin legacy business bleeding faster and the heavy-asset model of building data centers with 40 billion in financing facing delivery delays, chasing the high now would be a painful mistake. But if Wall Street fully embraces this logic of binding to large models, selling off chips now would only lead to regret later.[Hotspot Observation] Pump.fun iOS Removed from US and India Stores: Channel Cuts More Worth Watching Than Coin Price
Sample:
• Official confirmation: US/India App Store temporarily unavailable for new downloads
• Installed users operate normally, funds unaffected; still available on Google Play
• $PUMP down about 12%; some reports of 24h liquidation around $5.4 million (mostly long positions)
• Market sentiment 56, BTC still grinding price before tonight's 20:30 CPI
Judgment: More like a customer acquisition funnel being cut off, not "funds running away." Meme platforms rely more on mobile; Apple hits new installs harder; installed base stable ≠ growth stable.
Next to watch: time of re-listing, any review/regulatory statements, whether Android follows, PUMP liquidity and buyback rhythm. No trading advice.
Poll: What’s your take?
A Channel risk sample, not chasing
B Wait for re-listing to reassess
C Consider it noise, main focus still on CPI Interest rate hike probability breaks 70%! Next week's rate decision, the crypto market is about to face major volatility
Market data shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week has surged past 70%.
Inflation is rising again, and the previously hoped-for rate cut expectations have been directly dashed, with funds starting to reprice the rate hike risk. Many people see the news and immediately turn bearish on the market, but there is a very crucial logic here: the market trades on expectations, not on facts that have already materialized.
During the period when rate hike expectations are continuously rising, it is a phase of negative sentiment fermentation. High-volatility coins like BTC and ZEC will bear the pressure first, speculative funds will actively withdraw from risk assets, and the market is prone to corrections.
But remember, a rate hike being implemented does not mean the market will immediately crash.
🔹 If the 70% rate hike expectation has already been priced in by the market, even if the hike is officially announced, it is very likely to trigger a "sell the news" rebound.
🔹 The real killer move is an unexpectedly hawkish stance: not only completing the rate hike but also signaling continued tightening afterward. This scenario would open the door to a deep decline.
A simple comparison of two asset types:
▪ Bitcoin: Strong risk asset characteristics; under liquidity tightening expectations, volatility will sharply increase, and contract liquidation risk will rise significantly.
▪ Gold: Theoretically suppressed by rate hikes, but geopolitical safe-haven demand can hedge the negative impact, so gold may not necessarily weaken continuously in a rate hike environment.
1️⃣ Whether the meeting ultimately results in a rate hike
2️⃣ Powell's post-meeting speech tone, whether mild or hawkish
$BTC $ZEC went from a short squeeze to a pullback; this wave is finally starting to cool down.
Just a week ago, it was still aggressively accumulating, with ZCSH's two-week scale reaching about $500 million. The market once regarded it as a super catalyst in the privacy sector, and ZEC steadily approached its stage high.
But now the market situation has changed.
Around September 10, the overall market weakened. Before the CPI release, ZEC had a single-day pullback of over 13%, with the price dropping back near $1000.
I actually think this drop doesn't mean the privacy narrative is over, but rather that the previously overcrowded leverage is starting to be cleared out.
Previously, the open interest in contracts piled up too high, shorts were squeezed, longs chased the rally, and both sides were increasing leverage. Once the price stopped pushing higher, profit-taking and high-leverage positions triggered a simultaneous liquidation.
So now, don't treat the “ETF locking up tokens” as an all-purpose shield.
The ETF can lock up some spot supply, but it can't lock out macro risks, nor can it lock out leverage.
For $ZEC, I will focus on whether it can hold near $1000 next. Holding that level would indicate this pullback is more like a deleveraging; only if it can reclaim $1100–$1150 can we start talking about a renewed rally.
But if $1000 breaks, then it’s not just a simple consolidation; the vacuum of tokens left by the previous short squeeze will start to fall further.
The privacy sector story isn’t over yet, but $ZEC has moved from a “chasing the rally” logic into a “waiting for the market to set the position” phase.
Do you think $1000 is the bottom of this $ZEC correction, or the first downward continuation after the short squeeze rally?SOL is still hovering around 99 today, the high point at 107 is completely gone.
On the 6th-7th, it touched 107, then for the next few days it has been grinding between 98-105. Yesterday it dropped from 103 to 98.4, closing at 99. Today it opened at 99, touched 100.5 intraday but didn't break through, the low was 98.6, current price is about 99.5. Volume ratio is smaller than yesterday.
The range 100.5-105 has become immediate resistance. If it breaks below 98.6, it’s likely to first see 97.4, and then there’s more room to fall.
In the short term, watch if it can hold around 99. If it can’t hold, treat it as a high-level consolidation and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 98.6 can hold as support; if it can’t, consider reducing your position. $SOL The upper limit of the funding rate was previously fixed by the protocol for deployers. HIP-3 returns this authority back to the deployers themselves.
In the old approach, the rate boundaries were uniformly guaranteed by the protocol, and deployers could only adjust parameters within this cage. Now, being able to set their own upper and lower limits means the cost structure for market making and arbitrage will diverge by project, and the funding costs for the same asset may no longer be consistent across different markets.
A more likely explanation is that Hyperliquid wants to give the pricing power of new markets to the deployers, while it retains only liquidation and settlement. This link still lacks one piece of evidence: whether deployers will use it to lower rates to grab volume.
Keep an eye on the differences in funding rate caps across HIP-3 markets after the next upgrade. For someone like me who only watches the market, I probably have to relearn the rules again.
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测
#OKX百万规划师 $ZEC The inflation alarm was first sounded by PPI: year-on-year rose to 5.4% in August, with energy and transportation cost pressures rising again. The market's pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has returned to about 70%. But the real starting gun in the short term is still tonight's CPI.
If the CPI is again on the hot side, Bitcoin is very likely to be suppressed first, while ETH may amplify volatility due to its higher elasticity, and liquidity expectations for risk assets will also cool down; if core CPI falls significantly, easing trades may regain the upper hand, with $BTC expected to strengthen first, followed by ETH catching up.
However, the market has already priced in some hawkish risks in advance, so a slightly higher CPI does not necessarily mean an immediate plunge. The key lies in the deviation magnitude and whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields simultaneously exert pressure.
In terms of operations, avoid making predictions before the data and observe the follow-through after the data. If the bearish scenario is realized but BTC and ETH do not fall and instead stabilize or even quickly recover losses, this strong reaction is more worth noting. The real danger is the resonance of three factors: inflation exceeding expectations, U.S. Treasury yields continuing to rise, and BTC breaking key structures.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Robinhood's first time as an IPO underwriter, the biggest change is not that it finally squeezed into the Wall Street table, but that it simultaneously holds three roles: underwriter, trading platform, and retail entry point.
In Oura's IPO filing, Robinhood ranks last among about 18 underwriting institutions, so it temporarily lacks pricing power. But it may influence the number of shares allocated to platform users and can directly observe retail subscription and post-listing trading behavior. This closed loop is very strong and also sharpens conflicts of interest.
When the platform only handles trading, it can claim to provide tools; when the platform also participates in underwriting, it has the incentive to help issuers complete sales. If the IPO is overpriced and retail demand is insufficient, can platform recommendations, page displays, and user education remain completely neutral? This is the question Robinhood must answer.
I do not oppose it breaking the big investment banks' monopoly. Retail investors getting more IPO shares is inherently a good thing. But "more shares" must be accompanied by more transparent allocation rules, risk disclosures, and conflict of interest management.
Robinhood is changing from a ticket seller to a participant in designing the show. With greater power comes responsibility that cannot remain just "investing involves risks."
#Robinhood首次担任IPO承销商 Tonight's CPI sets the direction, the "hard asset" rift between Bitcoin and gold, PPI exceeds expectations, and the market's pricing for a Fed rate hike next week has surged above 70%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% mark, clearly suppressing non-yielding assets, increasing the appeal of cash and government bonds.
The pressure on the two is different. The 90-day correlation coefficient between gold and the 10-year US Treasury yield is -0.41, reacting more directly to rising interest rates. Last night, spot gold once fell more than 1%, reflecting this.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 BTC spot ETF continuous outflow, this is not a good signal.
Funds are retreating, and it is persistent. BTC price dropped 0.43%, market sentiment clearly weakened. ETF outflow means traditional institutional buying is weakening, and may even be taking profits. This contrasts with the previous narrative of "institutions continuously buying."
Why the outflow? Two reasons. First, macro uncertainty is too high—PPI exceeded expectations, CPI is announced tonight, the probability of a rate hike in September approaches 60%, institutions choose to hedge first. Second, Bitcoin has been consolidating above 100,000 USD for too long, lacking new catalysts, some funds have shifted to ETH and other assets.
But don't rush to panic. ETF outflow is a short-term behavior and does not represent a long-term trend reversal. The outflow of Grayscale GBTC has long been digested, and BlackRock IBIT's holdings remain large. The real test is: if BTC breaks key support, will these institutional funds hold firm or stampede?
Continuous outflow is an alarm, not a verdict. $ZEC $ETH $BTC The U.S. SEC is accelerating the approval of Nasdaq Texas's rule amendments, which include three major adjustments: relaxing the original compliance threshold to allow trust assets up to 15%; officially incorporating the definition of "digital commodities"; and opening up the listing and trading of actively managed commodity trusts.
These changes have substantial significance for the crypto industry, as the traditional financial product framework further opens the door to digital commodities. Subsequently, eligible BTC, ETH, and other digital assets are expected to leverage a more flexible commodity trust structure to list on U.S. exchanges, broadening institutional compliance participation channels.
This is not a simple exchange rule tweak; essentially, the U.S. capital market is continuously building a regulatory pathway for digital commodities. In the short term, it can boost market sentiment and bring positive sentiment benefits; however, the real value depends on the subsequent implementation progress, making the medium- to long-term impact more worthy of close attention. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC The 50 EMA reclaim might not be as bullish as it looks.
a lot of traders treat a daily close back above the 50 EMA as a bullish signal.
but historical data tells a different story: over the following 60 days, average returns have actually been negative, with the median around -3.7%.
so I’m not taking the reclaim as confirmation by itself. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
The most striking aspect of Oracle this time is not its regular cloud business, but the 121% year-over-year growth in AI cloud revenue. This figure indicates that the demand for AI computing power has not cooled down; companies are genuinely renting cloud services and purchasing computing power, not just making slogans at press conferences.
I believe Oracle is benefiting from a very clear dividend: Nvidia sells chips, Microsoft and Amazon build platforms, while Oracle leverages its cloud infrastructure and databases to serve AI customers who require massive computing power.
However, rapid revenue growth does not necessarily mean the stock price will continue to rise. The market is currently focused on whether orders can be sustained, whether cloud business profit margins can be maintained, and whether AI investments will ultimately convert into long-term customer revenue. If every company is frantically expanding data centers but customers haven't made money yet, valuation pressure will return later.
For the AI sector, this data is good news; for BTC and ETH, the impact is more emotional. Strong AI cloud demand indicates that tech capital expenditure is still ongoing, potentially supporting risk assets, but the crypto space will ultimately depend on the US dollar, interest rates, and capital flows.
The AI story continues, but going forward, we can't just look at "growth percentages"; we also need to see if this revenue can be sustainably realized. Don't bet on a one-sided CPI night! Prepare three scenarios in advance
Overnight core PPI was below 0.3%, with a year-on-year 5.4% hitting the highest since 2026; September rate hike probability rose from 60% to 70%. Tonight, the core CPI month-on-month will determine whether the rate hike pricing pushes to 80% or retreats to 50%.
A｜Core MoM ≤ 0.1%: Rate hike expectations fall back. BTC first targets 78,500–79,000, then follow if it breaks 80,500; ETH 2,525–2,560; SOL 107–110. Pullbacks are allowed, avoid chasing highs.
B｜Core MoM 0.2% (highest probability): Overall CPI high has been previewed by PPI, core not fully heating up, pricing may hold at 70%, with market spikes and retracements. BTC 76,300–79,500; ETH 2,435–2,500; SOL 97–107, easy to stop out, lighter positions than A/C.
C｜Core MoM ≥ 0.3%: Rate hike pricing rushes to 80%–90%. Last night's 7.66 drop was a preview. BTC losing 7.63 looks toward 7.4–7.3; ETH 2,360; SOL losing 97 short-term bulls withdraw. Only if core clearly exceeds 0.3% will there be a sharp drop.
Deleverage before 20:20, don't bet on one side. If you want to enter, wait for prices after A or B materialize. FOMC is next Wednesday; tonight won't set the trend, only decide if we survive until next Wednesday. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Many people see PPI is high and immediately assume tonight's CPI will also be high.
First, let's clarify the two.
PPI looks at prices on the enterprise side, which rose 0.4% compared to last month, as expected, not higher. Excluding food and energy, it only rose 0.2%, slightly lower than the market's 0.3% estimate.
The real high figure is the year-over-year data, which reached 5.4%, compounded by rising oil prices.
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows $SNDK The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates or not is leading global capital by the nose. Let me share my understanding. Will the Federal Reserve actually raise interest rates?
The answer is yes, it must.
The Federal Reserve believes that the current US stock market is at a historical high, and raising interest rates to suppress risk assets is completely acceptable; killing off overvalued bubbles may even benefit long-term development.
More urgently, there is high inflation and high yields on US Treasury bonds; raising interest rates is the only effective response.
However, it must be done moderately because the midterm elections are coming, and they cannot offend Trump.
It is highly likely to raise rates by the end of the year; there will be no increase in September. But data will definitely release expectations of a rate hike. BTC dropped to 77,000, with geopolitical black swan events colliding with a massive capital outflow.
The current market is collectively under pressure.
According to OKX market data, $BTC fell back to $77,000, down 1.24% in 24 hours.
$ETH is fluctuating narrowly around $2,465.
$SOL broke below the $100 mark, trading at $99.28.
The strong coin $HYPE pulled back to $79.23, down 4.4% in 24 hours.
$OKB rose against the trend by 1.9% to $113.96.
The total market capitalization fell by 1.17%, with 785 coins down and 409 up; PayFi, AI, and Layer2 led the declines.
Regarding ETFs, risk aversion is severe; yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $283 million, with the main ARKB dumping $164 million in a single day, while only MSBT had a net inflow of $3.9792 million.
On-chain profit supply has recovered from 47% to 69%, but still hasn't entered the strong zone of 75% - 90%.
Coupled with rising risks in the Mandeb Strait, pushing oil prices above $100, inflation expectations are rising again.
If the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, more stable liquidity support is expected only in the fourth quarter.
Don't panic sell during the crash; hold onto BTC and other core leading assets, and wait for the breakthrough market after the macro developments in the fourth quarter.#PPI is higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction $GOOGL has already reached a local low point and is about to take off. Reasons why I am optimistic:
1: Mr. Buffett has increased his holdings in Google for two consecutive quarters, making it the fourth largest position at 9.41% of his entire investment portfolio (long-term), bullish
2. Google is one of the seven major tech giants, with a trailing twelve months P/E ratio of only 16.6, much lower than other tech giants
3. Google's revenue gradually increases with each earnings report; the stock price has been suppressed due to increased capital expenditure on AI
Now is a great opportunity to position yourself, buy on dips, and wait patiently for growth. Whether to raise interest rates or not is no longer a mathematical problem, nor even an economic problem, but a political one.
The inflation rate and interest rates are not simply correlated. Inflation caused by oil prices is driven by supply-side cost increases.
Raising interest rates cannot solve the problem; at most, it can suppress wage increase expectations and prevent rising labor costs, but at the same time, high interest rates increase corporate financing costs.
It can only be said that raising interest rates in the face of inflation is a directionally "correct" move.
Especially during the midterm elections, in response to Trump's statements, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates can demonstrate the Fed's independence and political correctness…Just now, $LAB suddenly rebounded a lot. This situation also happened at the end of August this year, when it suddenly surged significantly. The last surge was a drop, dropping to its current level. Personally, I suspect this rally will be no different, and it's very likely to fall. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that at the end of August, its contract data showed a very similar change to today. At that time, contract interest surged, and the long-short ratio dropped sharply, just like today. Let's look at its candlestick chart. We can see that at the end of August, there was a drop very similar to today. If you only look at contract data, it's really hard to buy in now. —————————————————— Personally, I think you can try regular investment in this coin now. Why is that? Because as a high-control token, its current market cap is already very low, and it is very likely to surge more than threefold in the future. So I think regular investment is a good option. But what I mean is not chasing highs, or using a time-weighted order to gradually build a position in $LAB and take a chance at its rebound.Risks must also be clearly stated. The Fear and Greed Index has already reached 70, placing it in the "Greed" zone. Historically, this level often accompanies a short-term pullback. Moreover, ETF inflows are highly concentrated in BlackRock alone; once IBIT turns to outflows, the entire category could shift to net outflows in a single day. Whether the $80,000 threshold can hold will be clear in the next two weeks. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Bitcoin's resilience exceeded expectations, patiently awaiting CPI to set the short- and mid-term direction
After $ETH sharply dropped yesterday, the market did not continue to decline; funds were absorbed at low levels, and the price gradually recovered. The market's repeated fluctuations are very taxing on sentiment. It is currently not suitable to subjectively predict the direction; tonight's CPI is the key anchor for the short- and mid-term market. Patiently waiting for the data release is the optimal choice.
There is a very critical risk point during the data release period: at the moment CPI is published, market makers may choose to temporarily withdraw orders, causing a liquidity vacuum in the order book, thinning its depth. This can easily lead to irregular spikes up and down, mixing false and true breakouts, which can easily trigger short-term stop losses. Therefore, during this phase, it is advisable to appropriately widen stop losses to avoid false stops caused by liquidity exhaustion.
The core market contention now lies in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. If the CPI data is hot and a September rate hike is confirmed, pressure on ETH will further increase, with the $2100 level becoming a key test target. Conversely, if inflation readings cool and rate hike expectations decline, Bitcoin will have a chance to continue this round of recovery. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The US August CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released at 20:30.
This data includes key indicators such as the unadjusted annual CPI rate and core CPI, which have a significant impact on recent market trends.
This will be the "roulette" that determines the fate of risk assets in the near term.
Tonight's market focus is on the core CPI month-over-month data (market expectation is 0.2%).
① If the core CPI month-over-month reaches or exceeds 0.3%, or if overall inflation data rebounds, the market will strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them. A high interest rate environment will push up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, leading to capital outflows from risk assets, usually triggering short-selling sentiment and putting downward pressure on BTC prices. If key support levels are broken, it may trigger a larger liquidity crisis and long liquidations.
② If the core CPI month-over-month is below 0.2% (e.g., 0.18%), it indicates cooling inflation and a rapid decline in rate hike expectations. Expectations for liquidity easing will rise, risk appetite will increase, benefiting risk assets like BTC, usually triggering long-buying sentiment, and BTC prices are expected to rebound, testing resistance levels above (such as the $80,000-$82,000 range).
③ If CPI meets expectations, the data basically aligns with market expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy path remains unchanged, lacking new catalysts. Market reaction may be relatively muted, and BTC is likely to maintain range-bound oscillation $BTC Brothers, why short altcoins? Why not short $BTC or $ETH? The overall market trend is so clear, the downtrend is already obvious. The whole market was pumped in August, and September is destined to start falling. Anyway, I've already gone short.
Look at this market: BTC is now around 77,021, down 1.5% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $29.79 billion, and market cap holding above $1.55 trillion. But the long-short ratio has shifted to 38% longs versus 62% shorts, shorts are starting to dominate.
Why the drop? Three heavy macro blows hit simultaneously.
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.8%. Core PPI rose 4.7% over the past 12 months. The US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, Brent crude oil broke through $100 per barrel. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.353%, the highest in 19 years. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to about 70%.
For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, when the risk-free rate exceeds 5%, the opportunity cost of holding it rises sharply, and funds accelerate into yield-bearing assets. This is not an internal crypto market issue, but a systemic tightening of the macro environment.
Liquidation data is even more direct—long positions are being slaughtered.
In the past 24 hours, $446 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with $352 million in long liquidations and only $93.93 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin long liquidations were $111 million, short liquidations only $9.37 million. The long-to-short liquidation ratio is nearly 12:1. The market was already heavily biased toward longs, and once the PPI came out, leveraged longs were wiped out. In the last 24 hours, 93,727 people were liquidated.
Technically, the market has fully turned bearish.
BTC has dropped from the high near 81,500 and is now sitting at the critical support range of 76,000-77,000. RSI has dropped to 31.97, close to oversold, but oversold does not mean bottomed. Once 76,000 breaks, the space below opens directly to 74,000-75,000, with more critical support near 72,000. Resistance above is at 79,200; only a close above that can reverse the downtrend.
My short at 77,020.9 is already in, full position 3x leverage, liquidation price at 1,383,022, far away, can hold. After a month of gains in August, September is time to pay the debt. Either it takes us down in one wave or we bottom out and admit defeat. Wait for my good news, brothers!! 🚀
$ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 ECB Governing Council member Mahlouf issued a risk warning that if the Iran-related conflict lasts too long, it will cause inflation to remain high. The Eurozone is highly dependent on imported energy, and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East will continue to disrupt crude oil and refined oil supplies, pushing up energy costs and bringing imported inflationary pressure.
The longer the conflict drags on, the longer energy prices will stay high, and costs will gradually transmit to food, transportation, services, and other sectors, forming a second round of price increases. Even if the conflict ends, repairing energy infrastructure and restoring supply chains will take time, so inflationary pressure will not immediately subside.
This also puts the ECB in a dilemma: on one hand, it needs to fight stubborn inflation and has the necessity to continue raising interest rates; on the other hand, aggressive rate hikes will suppress the already weak Eurozone economic growth. If geopolitical risks continue to ferment, the ECB will find it difficult to quickly shift to an easing policy.
Looking globally, the ongoing Middle East conflict will simultaneously disrupt inflation expectations in Europe and the US. Sustained high oil prices will reinforce the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, pushing up US Treasury yields.#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向